9-30-12

[poopoo333]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Goin' Over Total G.O.M. (6-1 TY with 10* FB totals)
My 10* NFL Goin’ Over Total of the Month is on Cin/Jax Over at 4:05 ET.

Maurice Jones-Drew tried to renegotiate his contract after leading the NFL with 1,606 rushing yards in 2011. He missed 38 days, including all of training camp, but returned without a new deal. Jacksonville fans could hardly be blamed if they were concerned that Drew would mirror the situation in Tennessee, in which Chris Johnson held out and since his return, has been a shell of his former shelf. Drew gained 137 yards (4.4 YPC) in his first two games of 2012 and then last Sunday, ‘EXPLODED’ for 177 yards, including a 59-yard TD, in last Sunday's 22-17 win over Indianapolis (team’s first win). QB Blaine Gabbert still has a long way to go (he continues to experience growing pains in his second NFL season) but the fact that he has yet to throw an INT in 79 attempts (through three games), is a HUGE step in the right direction. The Bengals earned a wild card berth last year but opened this season by getting beat fairly handily in Week 1 at Baltimore, 44-13. That game followed last year’s pattern, as during the regular season the 9-7 Bengals were 1-6 against opponents that finished .500 or better last year and then fell to 1-7 with a 31-10 loss to Houston in the wild card round. However, the Bengals have won two straight since their Week 1 loss, beating Cleveland 34-27 and Washington 38-31. QB Andy Dalton has been terrific the last two weeks, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 128.2 vs Cleveland plus throwing for 328 yards with another three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 132.9 vs the Redskins. Dalton's 105.0 passer rating ranks second in the AFC after three games and his 158.3 rating in the fourth quarter is the best in the NFL! The Jags will have trouble keeping the Bengals out of the end zone, considering that they’ve faced 108 pass attempts through three games with just one INT and are allowing 154.3 YPG on the ground (4.4 YPC). That brings me to the state of Cincy’s defense in 2012. The Bengals played solid defense in 2011, allowing 20.2 PPG (8th-best) on 316.3 YPG (7th-best). However, the Bengals have allowed 44 points and 430 yards to Baltimore, 27 points and 439 yards to Cleveland and 31 points and 381 yards to Washington. Doing the math shows the Bengals allowing 34.0 PPG on 416.7 YPG. The rush “D” is allowing 155.0 YPG (31st of 32 teams) on 5.8 YPC and will have to deal with MJD. Now the Jags averaged an NFL-low 259.3 YPG in 2011 and at 15.2 PPG, only the Browns (13.6), Chiefs (13.3) and Rams (12.1) scored fewer points. However, this year’s offense seems in much better shape and while I don’t expect the Jags to ‘light up the scoreboard,’ we have a very favorable total in this game and I surely don’t expect to be ‘sweating’ points in the 4th quarter. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* Division G.O.Y. (63% with FB 10*s TY!)
My 10* NFC North Game of the Year is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET.

The Lions ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1999 when they went 10-6 last year (lost at New Orleans in the wild card round). In a 2011 season in which both Brees and Brady broke Dam Marino's single-season passing yards record (and Rodgers was the league’s MVP by setting a single-season QB rating mark of 122.5 with 4,643 yards plus 45 TDs against only six INTs), Matthew Stafford ‘quietly’ threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and a modest 16 INTs. Stafford joined Dan Marino and Drew Brees as the only players to pass for more than 5,000 yards plus throw 40 TDs in the same season. The Lions averaged 29.6 PPG (4th-best in the NFL) and Detroit expected to build off last year’s season, although it knew it was in a tough division with the Packers and Bears. Stafford played poorly in Week 1 (three INTs) but the Lions rallied to beat the Rams 27-23, with Stafford capping a last-minure drive with a game-winning TD pass with just 10 seconds remaining. The Lions seemed in over their heads in a Sunday Night Week 2 game at San Francisco (lost 27-19 but it never felt ‘close’), then lost a 44-41 OT-thriller at Tennessee in Week 3. The Lions fell behind 20-9, rallied to take a 27-20 lead, fell behind again by 41-27 but incredibly scored two TDs in the game’s final 18 seconds (with Shaun Hill replacing an injured Stafford to send the game to OT). Detroit lost 44-41, as the game ended with the Lions failing to convert a 4th-and-one at the Tennessee seven, when a FG would have extended play. There’s been plenty of confusion as to just exactly what the Lions intended on that final play. Anyway, as Bill Parcells famously says, “you are what your record says you are.” In Detroit's case that’s 1-2 but the good news is the Packers are also 1-2 and while the Bears are 2-1, they are underdogs Monday Night at Dallas. The Vikings come in a surprising 2-1, after shocking the 49ers last Sunday, 24-13. The Vikings opened the season winning a three-point OT game vs the Jags and losing a three-point game at the Colts, which was what most expected from a team which was 3-13 last year. However, the Vikings ran for 146 yards vs the 49ers (San Fran allowed 77.3 YPG on the ground LY) and QB Ponder threw for 198 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Minnesota's three TD drives covered 80, 80 and 90 yards! Historically, this series has been all Vikings but the Lions have won the last three and I believe, are easily the better team this season. Detroit’s shaky start and Minnesota’s surprising one is the reason this game opened Detroit minus-4, rather than the 10-point favorite Detroit closed last year in its home game vs the Vikings. Let’s take advantage of that adjustment. Stafford’s strained hip is NOT expected to keep him from starting but let me also note that Shaun Hill is MORE than capable as a backup. Let’s NOT forget that the Minnesota pass “D” allowed an NFL-high 68.2% completions last year and despite tying the Eagles for the most sacks (50), the Vikings intercepted just EIGHT passes in 538 attempts, while allowing 34 TD throws. Minnesota is allowing 63.8% completions after three games and has just one INT against five TDs. Detroit leads the NFL with 334.0 YPG passing and is completing 69.6%. The fact that RB Mikel LeShoure had 100 yards in his NFL debut last Sunday (he missed his rookie season with an Achilles' injury and the first two games of 2012 for violating the league's substance abuse policy), helping the Lions to run for 146 yards vs the Titans is BIG news. Detroit came in averaging 82.5 YPG rushing after two weeks and the team’s 11 rushing FDs were their most in any game for Detroit since Nov 25, 2010. Minnesota's “D” can’t handle the Lions’ balance and at this price, let’s ‘jump all over’ Detroit!

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
49ers
Jaguars
Eagles

S/O
Seattle
Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Pinnacle
Ny Jets (+5) over 49ers

No Limit
Jaguars (+1) over Bengals

Billionaire
Raiders (+7) over Broncos

Need Inner Circle GOY

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

5% New England
4 Denver
4 San Francisco
3 Arizona
2% Philly
5% Over Atlanta
4 Over Buffalo
4 Over Denver
4 Over Green Bay