9-30-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 49.5)

Niners vs. Jet lag

At Green Bay, at Minnesota and now at the Jets. The Niners are spending the first month of the season in a migratory pattern east of the Mississippi before the schedule becomes more home-friendly in October.

In fact, they’ve traveled so much that the team is spending this week in Ohio to avoid two cross-country trips. It’ll be interesting to see if San Francisco adjusts its game plan and gets the ball in the air to see how quickly the Jets have adjusted to Darrelle Revis’ absence.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+4, 52)

Tom Brady vs. Buffalo defense

The Bills were supposed to step it up significantly on defense this season, but they are barely mediocre after three games against so-so offenses (Jets, Chiefs, Browns). In New England, there are questions for the first time about whether Brady is regressing.

Things aren’t there yet with WR Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker’s role has been down-sized and several drives have been killed by negative-yardage plays. Brady needs to air it out a bit to unclog the line of scrimmage.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 54)

New Orleans vs. Befuddled Packer organization

How can the Packers begin to think about looking ahead as they deal day after day with last Monday night’s debacle? Green Bay should be spending this week trying to figure out how to repair the offensive line, which allowed eight sacks in the bizarre loss to Seattle.

The Saints have plenty of issues of their own, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But as they say, out of chaos comes opportunity and the Saints have a good shot at righting their ship against the Packers.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+2.5, 38.5)

Seahawks defense vs. Rams’ lost running attack

Steven Jackson has been battling a groin injury and was limited to 11 carries in the Rams’ loss to the Bears. Not surprisingly, St. Louis had a grand total of zero touchdowns in that game.

Seattle has (statistically) the fourth-best defense in the league. It doesn’t look good for the Rams, who have the crap luck of being better but also competing in a division in which everyone else is also improved.

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Early NFL upsets a mint for moneyline bettors
By DOC'S SPORTS

Through the first two weeks of the NFL regular season, the underdogs provided a slightly better return than the favorites against the spread, but it was nothing to get too excited about.

That all changed in Week 3. Including Seattle’s highly-questionable win over Green Bay Monday night, the underdogs covered the spread in 11 of the 16 games and nine of those games were SU upsets.

If you decided to put one unit on the underdog in all 16 of those games, you would have walked away with a nice little return of $550 for the week betting with the spread. However, the real money to be made in Week 3 was on the moneyline.

While the average person that wagers on the NFL tends to stick with the spreads as their primary form of betting, it is weeks like this that make you realize the value that a moneyline bet can sometimes offer.

If you would have been clairvoyant enough to know which of the dogs were going to win their games outright, a one-unit bet on the moneyline on all nine of those games would have returned $1,665.

The amazing thing about last week’s results were that even if you placed that same one-unit on the moneyline for all 16 underdogs on the slate, you still would have cleared $965 for the week.

The highest moneyline payout for any of the games in the first three weeks of the season was +600 on Arizona’s shocking upset of New England in Week 2. In fact, if you would have made a one-unit bet on the moneyline for the surprising 3-0 Cardinals in their first three games this season, you would be up $895 right now.

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NFL injuries bettors should watch in Week 4
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

The Bills know that beating the Patriots, even at home, requires keeping the offensive engine tuned up. That’s why all eyes are on running Fred Jackson this week as he tries to return from knee injuries suffered in Week 1 of the season.

"From the workout and the rehab (Monday) morning, it went extremely well,” Bills coach Chan Gailey told the Buffalo News. “It looks like he's going to practice Wednesday and we'll see how he feels during the course of the week. I'm very optimistic."

Having Jackson on board might help push money towards the Bills, who have held at +4 (52) midweek. Getting him back for Week 4 is especially imperative after backup C.J. Spiller suffered a shoulder injury last week, after two solid outings, and will miss the next few weeks recovering.

Here are other injuries that could push lines either way in Week 4:

Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos TE

Peyton Manning is having a tough time getting rolling and not having one of his familiar go-to guys in the lineup at 100 percent wouldn’t help. Tamme is listed as probable, but could be slowed by a groin injury when Denver is home against the Raiders (Broncos -6.5, 47.5) Sunday.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions QB

Stafford was actually hurt (hip) playing defense after the Lions lost a fumble and at mid-week the team is uncertain if he’ll go vs. Minnesota. Shaun Hill actually got late snaps in Detroit’s wild 44-41 loss to Tennessee, but Hill isn’t the long-term answer. Detroit is -7 (45.5) at home against the Vikings.

Darrelle Revis, New York Jets CB

Revis is perhaps the only defensive player in the league who can bump a line one way or the other, and oddsmakers have the Jets at +4 against the Niners at home this week in what probably would have been a field-goal game with him in the lineup.

Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins RB

Speaking of Revis, Bush threw salt on the wound with his comments on a radio show this week, saying “What goes around comes around” when asked about the Jets shutdown corner. Bush is dealing with his own ailment and is currently listed as questionable against the Cardinals (Arizona -6) Sunday. The running back is very important to the Fins attack, especially with the roster thin on playmakers.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears RB

The Bears have a huge Monday night meeting with the Cowboys (Dallas -3.5) and may not have their top offensive weapon in the holster. Forte is listed as doubtful due to a sprained ankle and Chicago is scrambling for options at RB. Former Packers RB Ryan Grant looked like an option but took a job with the Redskins. Jacob Hester, Steve Slaton and DuJuan Harris have all tried out for the Bears empty RB position.

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DCI NFL

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-10 (.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 7-0 (1.000)

Season
Straight Up: 26-21 (.553)
ATS: 22-26 (.458)
ATS Vary Units: 98-179 (.354)
Over/Under: 26-21 (.553)
Over/Under Vary Units: 106-98 (.520)

Sunday, September 30, 2012
ATLANTA 33, Carolina 18
New England 35, BUFFALO 24
DETROIT 35, Minnesota 28
San Diego 23, KANSAS CITY 17
Seattle 23, ST. LOUIS 12
San Francisco vs. N.Y. JETS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HOUSTON 28, Tennessee 16
ARIZONA 25, Miami 12
Cincinnati 22, JACKSONVILLE 20
DENVER 28, Oakland 25
GREEN BAY 38, New Orleans 31
TAMPA BAY 29, Washington 26
N.Y. Giants 25, PHILADELPHIA 20

Monday, October 1, 2012
Chicago 21, DALLAS 17

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Colin Cowherd Blazing Five, ESPN Personality. Usually about as good or better than any service:

Redskins +1-
Packers -7-
Patriots -4
Raiders +7
49ers -4-

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NFL Predictions

Kevin

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets - 49ERS -3 (-130)
(Note: I'm risking 2.60 units to win 2.00 units)

We locked this in right before a bit of line movement earlier in the week, but some sportsbooks still give you the option to buy this game down to -3 at -135. I also like -4 +101 which is available right now as well.

The New York Jets opened up the season with a blowout 48-28 win over the Buffalo Bills as 3 point favorites, but then went into Pittsburgh and lost 27-10 as 5 point underdogs. Last week the Jets improved to 2-1 with a 23-20 overtime victory against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez had his second rough outing going 21/45 for 306 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, while the running game for New York didn't get much going at all. Miami RB Reggie Bush was injured in the game and I think that was the difference for the Jets winning, as Bush was averaging 6.1 yards per carry before getting injured. Mark Sanchez is 23rd in the league for QB Rating at 78.3 as he has completed just 50.5% of his passes and has 5 TDs and 3 INTs on the year. Overall the Jets offense is 22nd in the league averaging just 330 yards per game on offense. Defensively they are 21st in the league giving up 367 yards against per game, while allowing 25 points against per game (18th). The Jets took a big loss in their victory last week with their defensive star, Darrelle Revis, injuring his knee and is expected to miss the entire season.

The San Francisco Giants went into Green Bay in Week 1 as 6 point underdogs and won outright 30-22, quickly making them early Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers followed that up with a Sunday Night victory against the Lions, 27-19, as 7 point favorites. Starting 2-0 the 49ers entered Minnesota last week as 6.5 road favorites, but ended up being upset 24-13 as they struggled on both sides of the ball. I think the loss was a good wake up call for the 49ers team that might have gotten a bit ahead of themselves after a hot start. QB Alex Smith has been effective completing just under 70% of his passes for 5 TDs and 1 INT, good for a QB rating of 102.7. The San Francisco offense is ranked just above the Jets at 21st with 335 yards per game, but their defense is 11th ranked allowing 321 yards against per game. After finishing last season with the 4th ranked defense I expect the 49ers numbers to continue to improve as they've started the season against 3 good offenses in GB, Det, and Min (with 2 of those games on the road).

The Jets were 6-2 at home last season, but their 2 losses were their only two games that they hosted a playoff team (New England and New York). San Francisco went 6-2 on the road last season, and beat 2 playoff teams (Detroit, Cincinnati) as well as some other good home teams (Philadelphia, Seattle). Their two road losses came against Baltimore and Arizona by a combined 12 points. San Francisco has gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 overall, and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. The Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. The Jets haven't gotten much done on offense in their last two games, and now they face their toughest test yet. San Francisco looks to avoid back to back losses and I think they come out hard Sunday and will be too much for the Jets. New York doesn't match up with the 49ers, and I think they get a big bounce back road victory and cover the spread.

2 UNIT = San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs - CHIEFS +1 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)

The San Diego Chargers suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, but it came in a big way. The Chargers entered the game as 3 point favorites hosting the Atlanta Falcons and were blown out 27-3 in front of their home crowd. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 40 passes with 3 Touchdowns against the Chargers defense, while Michael Turner added 80 yards on the ground. Phillip Rivers didn't look good going 21 for 38 with just 178 yards and 2 INTs. San Diego's two victories have come @ Oakland and vs a weak Tennessee team at home. Although San Diego covered the spread in both games, neither victories impressed me too much. The Chargers are ranked 23rd offensively averaging 318 yards per game, and they are 21st scoring 21 points per game. Despite a bad game on defense last week the Chargers are still 9th in the league averaging 305 yards against per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs got their first win last week as 9 point underdogs in New Orleans. The Chiefs forced overtime and went on to kick a game winning field goal to pull off the upset. In Week 1 the Chiefs hosted the Atlanta Falcons and beat 40-24 as 3 point underdogs, and then went into Buffalo in Week 2 and 3 point underdogs and lost 35-17. Jamaal Charles broke out for a big game last week with 233 yards and 1 TD on 33 attempts, and I look for him to bring that effort into Sunday's game as the Chiefs look to improve to 2-2 (which would have them in 1st place in the division due to the h2h tie breaker). Kansas City ranks 1st offensively with 441 yards per game, but need to limit their turnovers as they are -8 already on the season. The Chiefs have completed 48% of their 3rd down attempts (4th in the league) and are averaging 22.7 ppg (17th). Defensively KC is 16th in the league allowing 347 yards against per game, although they are giving up a high 33 ppg (28th). Protecting the ball is going to be key for the Chiefs to win this game.

Kansas City was just 3-5 at home last season but 4-4 against the spread. Losses at home came against Buffalo, Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh and Oakland. The Chiefs beat San Diego 23-20 at home in overtime in Week 8 as 3 point underdogs, which came after the Chargers won their Week 3 meeting 20-17 as 14.5 point favorites. In their 4 meetings over the past 2 years the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS and 2-0 at home vs San Diego. Dating back the Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs the Chargers. If you look back at last season you will notice the Chargers victories came against Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, Denver, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore and Oakland (just 2 playoff teams) and I think they are a bit overrated after a 2-0 start to the season. Their victory in Oakland was mainly due to poor special teams play by the Raiders, and they could easily be 1-2 with their only win coming against a rookie QB in his first road game. Take note that the Chargers have good defensive numbers vs the rush this season, but their 3 opponents so far this year rank 25th, 31st, and 32nd in rushing. The Chargers were 20th in rush defense last season. I think Kansas City will be able to establish a good running game and allow Matt Cassel to be efficient. This won't be a popular pick this week but give me KC at home vs their divisional rivals.

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars - OVER 42.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.04 units to win 2.00 units)

Cincinnati is coming off an impressive victory in Washington, which moved them to 2-1 on the season. The Bengals had a tough start to the season as they travelled to Baltimore in a Monday Night match up and went on to lose 44-13, but the Bengals have rebounded nicely with a 34-27 victory against Cleveland and a 38-31 victory against Washington. Cincinnati comes into this one 8th in the NFL offensively averaging 391 yards per game, while they are 8th with 28.3 points per game. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a 105.0 QB Rating while completing 68.4% of his passes. The Bengals are 29th in the league defensively allowing 416 yards against per game, while giving up a high 34 points per game (31st).

The Jaguars managed to grab their first victory of the season last week as 3 point underdogs. The Jaguars beat Luck and the Colts 22-17 with a last minute drive to take the game and a bit of momentum with them back home. Losses came against Minnesota (26-23 in OT) and Houston (27-7). RB Maurice Jones-Drew got it going last week with 177 yards and 1 TD on 28 attempts. Overall Jacksonville is 30th in the league on offense with 268 yards per game, but MJD is a big part of that and his success last week should carry into this game. The Bengals are 31st against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Take note that Cincinnati should also be able to get a balanced attack going as the Jaguars are barely in front of the Bengals at 30th in the NFL against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Overall the Jags are 28th in the league in defense giving up 412 yards against per game.

Take note that the OVER is 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record, and 14-3 in their last 17 games vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 8-3 in their last 11 road games, and 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing home record. The Jags have been playing to the under lately as their offense hasn't done much over the past year or so, but the OVER is 10-4 in their last 14 games following a straight up win. The Bengals have been great offensively their last two games and Andy Dalton has been solid under center. Also with MJD coming home after a big game I expect him to help get the offense going this week. Two struggling defenses calls for the OVER in this one.

2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 39.5 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.06 units to win 2.00 units)

Miami lost a tough one last week as they fell 23-20 against the New York Jets in overtime. The Dolphins lost their season opener 30-10 in Houston before winning big 35-13 at home against the Raiders. RB Reggie Bush was hurt in their lost last week, which hurt them as he looked like he was going to have back to back very quality games. He is probable this week. Despite almost being 2-1 entering this game, the Dolphin's rookie QB Ryan Tannehill is last in the league with a 58.3 QB rating completing just 52.9% of his passes with 1 TD and 4 INTs. The ground game has helped the Dolphins rank 12th overall with 369 yards per game. The defense is ranked 22nd giving up 373 yards against per game.

Arizona continued their unexpected start to the season as they improved to 3-0 after a 27-6 home victory against the Eagles last week as 3 point underdogs. In week 1 the Cardinals beat Seattle 20-16 and followed that up with a 20-18 win in New England as 13 point underdogs. The offense ranks 31s in the league with just 262 yards per game, but they've been effective when they've needed to be. The story has been on defense where they are 10th in the league giving up 316 yards against per game against some good offenses, and they are 2nd in the NFL giving up just 13.3 points against per game.

Take note that the UNDER is 22-8 in the Dolphins last 30 road games, 12-5-1 in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Cardinals last 6 games overall, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games following a straight up win, and 5-0 in their last 5 September games (including 3-0 this season). In this match up we have two underrated and solid defenses going up against average at best offenses. Tannehill struggled in his first road game and I don't expect much here against a good Cardinals defense. I think both teams will be looking to run the ball quite a bit as part of their game plan, and points will be tough to come by. Take the UNDER.

2 UNIT = Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -3.5 (+105) *Monday Night'er*
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (NFL) Miami Dolphins +6.5

4* (NFL) NY Giants +2

3* (NFL) Atlanta Falcons -7

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Wunderdog Sports

Game: New England at Buffalo (Sunday 9/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New England -3.5 (-110)

For the second week in a row we get tremendous value backing a great team. We took New England last week and cashed. We'll do it again this week. The New England Patriots are off to a 1-2 start, but it is not like they have played poorly. The teams they lost to, Baltimore and Arizona, are off to a combined 6-1 start. Last week they had the game in hand on the road against a great team until a controversial last minute field goal by the Ravens. It has been nearly a decade since the Pats lost three in a row, so I expect them to come out breathing fire in this one. The last five times this team lost two in a row, they have come back to win all five by a combined score of 157-57. Arizona's 3-0 start has been impressive but did you know that the Patriots out-gained them 387-245? New England also moved the chains well in that game, getting 25 first downs compared to just 16 for the Cardinals. New England also had 33 first downs at Baltimore in the 1-point loss. In the game vs. Arizona the Pats missed a game winning FG as well. The Bills need all the weapons they can muster vs. New England, so the loss of C.J. Spiller is a big one. Spiller had gained 308 yards on 33 carries before injuring his shoulder. They also have lost David Nelson who caught 61 balls a year ago to a torn ACL. The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 after a loss and 51-24-3 ATS on the road in their last 78. They are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games after allowing 30+ points. Finally, the Pats have covered seven of the last eight here in this building. Under Belichick, New England is 34-20 ATS as a road favorite. My computer matchup for this game has New England winning by a touchdown. I agree: Lay the points and look for a big New England win.

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAYS:
· Denver -6 1/2 Oakland
· NY Giants + 1 1/2 Philly


SINGLE PLAYS:

· Houston -12 Tennessee
· San Fran -4 NY Jets
· Kansas City +1 San Diego
· Green Bay -7 1/2 New Orleans
· Detroit -4 1/2 Minnesota
· Denver-Oakland OVER 48 1/2
· Arizona-Miami UNDER 39

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* San Fran, NE, Houst

2* Wash, Carolina, Miami, St Louis

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Info Plays

7* Carolina Panthers +7.5

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EA Sports Consultants

Lions -4.5
Chiefs +1
Rams +3
Dolphins +6
Jaguars +2.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

Survivor Pick –
GREEN BAY over New Orleans

We could certainly use the Ravens or Texans this week but the majority of your poolies will be on one of those two teams and we’ll stick with our philosophy of not following the masses. The Packers would be the fourth or fifth choice on most people’s list after Houston, Baltimore, Arizona and Atlanta but not ours, as we expect Green Bay to come out with more focus than ever after that Monday night debacle.

The Packers come off a tragic loss last week but beneath it all, we find a defense that has been very good. Let’s not overlook that Green Bay has faced three of the stronger D’s in the league after playing the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks. The Saints defense is a disaster, ranking #32 after getting torched by Washington, Carolina and Kansas City, not exactly the cream of the crop.

The Packers are too sound a team, both offensively and defensively, to lose focus and allow that game to affect them in a negative way. Adversity reveals character. The Saints have revealed theirs after Bountygate with some ugly football. The Packers have a chance to show how strong a unit they are and we expect them to respond appropriately. The point-spread is an indication of the disparity between these two. It’s not without its merits.

Week 4 pick – GREEN BAY straight up.

N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √

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BLEZOW LOCK OF THE WEEK NFL ( 0-3 ) :

Lock- ST LOUIS RAMS

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49ers at Jets: What bettors need to know

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 40.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. If that news wasn’t bad enough, they are also going to have to find a way to get their offense going against the San Francisco 49ers this week. For the third time in the first four weeks, the 49ers will have to travel at least two time zones to play on the road.

The Minnesota Vikings used a mobile quarterback to get around San Francisco’s fearsome defense, which means Tim Tebow could see more touches this week for New York. Tebow has been most effective on special teams early in the season and has yet to assert himself as an offensive playmaker with the Jets. New York will be looking to drop San Francisco to .500 when the teams meet in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3-point road favorites which was bet up to -4. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 before being bet back to the original number.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Winds will blow NNE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): San Francisco was on the very short list of the best teams in the NFL after convincing wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but slipped up last week in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota. The 49ers struggled to contain Christian Ponder in the pocket, and Alex Smith was uncharacteristically sloppy at quarterback. They just have to get through New York before enjoying a stretch of five of their next six games at home. San Francisco could try to exploit the Jets’ Revis-less secondary by featuring Randy Moss, who has been limited to eight catches in the first three weeks. Smith got a pair of new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason but is still focusing on tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): There is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding New York after Revis’ diagnosis. The Pro Bowler served as the quarterback of the Jets defense, and his ability to lock down a receiver in single coverage made it easier for Rex Ryan to call multiple blitz packages. Now that Revis is done, Antonio Cromartie steps into the No. 1 cornerback slot and Kyle Wilson will replace Revis in the lineup. New York showed several areas of weakness in a sloppy 23-20 overtime win in Miami last weekend, including a running game that is averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Tebow lined up for 12 plays with the offense against Miami and accounted for zero yards. The Wildcat packages designed to get him onto the field have not worked and Tebow spent most of his time at H-back in Miami. Mark Sanchez has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of the last two weeks.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* 49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. team with winning road record.
* Over is 26-11 in Jets' last 37 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Sanchez will be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out.

2. The 49ers are 10-1 under coach Jim Harbaugh when winning the time of possession battle and 5-3 when coming out on the short end.

3. San Francisco KR Kyle Williams set a career high with 144 yards on returns last week, outgaining the offense by himself at one point.

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Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 4's best prop plays
By SEAN MURPHY

We had to settle for a 2-2 split last week, leaving our prop record at 7-5 on the season.

Here's a look at four picks to consider this Sunday.

Most passing yards

Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

We managed to cash our ticket with Smith over Christian Ponder last week, despite an off day from the Niners offense. I do expect San Francisco to bounce back strong against the Revis-less Jets and Smith should continue his streak of 200-yard passing games to open the season.

I won't be surprised if the Jets give Tim Tebow a little more to chew in the offense, just to keep the stingy Niners defense on its heels. Mark Sanchez should be in line for some regression after throwing for over 300 yards in an overtime game in Miami last Sunday.

Take: Smith

Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) vs. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

What's wrong with the Saints? We'll hear plenty of that talk leading up this highly-anticipated contest. The fact is, Drew Brees continues to bomb away, having thrown for over 900 yards already this season. If the Saints are going to pick up their first win of the season, it's going to have to come on the shoulders, or should I say the arm, of Brees.

Lost in all of the controversy surrounding the Monday nighter was the fact that the Packers offense still didn't look very good. Aaron Rodgers looks out of sync with his receiving corps, as evidenced by the fact that he's passed for only 745 yards and three touchdowns this season. I wouldn't count on things improving against a desperate Saints team.

Take: Brees

Most rushing yards

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Tashard Choice (Buffalo Bills)

The Patriots were big winners in their season-opener in Tennessee and a lot of their success had to do with the contributions of Stevan Ridley, as he ran for 125 yards and a score on 21 carries. His role has diminished in each of the past two weeks, but I'm expecting Bill Bellichick to return to his feature back in an effort to relieve some of the pressure on Tom Brady.

Tashard Choice is the next man up for the Bills after losing both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to injury. He looked good in mop-up duty against the Browns last week, but will find the going much tougher against a hungry Patriots defense this week. Jackson was back at practice this week and there is a slim chance he may play and share carries.

Take: Ridley

Most pass receptions

Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) vs. Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons)

The Panthers were embarrassed by the Giants last Thursday night and figure to come out with plenty of fire in Atlanta. Cam Newton gets all the headlines, but Steve Smith is still the key to their offensive success. He's more than familiar with this divisional matchup and hauled in 11 catches for 191 yards in two games against the Falcons last year.

Roddy White is no longer Matt Ryan's favorite target with top billing now going to Julio Jones. I still expect White to warrant plenty of attention from the Panthers corners. Note that he had nine catches in two games against Carolina last season.

Take: Smith

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Can't keep a good arm down: NFL's top QBs will rebound
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Blame BountyGate. Blame injuries. Blame the offensive lines. Blame the refs.

Just blame somebody – anybody – for the uneven performances of the teams with the three best pure passers in the NFL. Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been off plumb this season, and as a result the Saints, Patriots and Packers are a cumulative 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. All three All-Pros have suffered a significant drop in production.

Wasn’t this supposed to be a passing league, and aren’t these three the cream of the crop?

Rodgers can rightly claim that his Packers would be 2-1 if they weren’t jobbed by the refs in the Seahawks loss, but Green Bay’s offensive problems run a bit deeper. He was sacked three times (24 yards lost) in the opening day loss to San Francisco and it’s only gotten worse since then – five sacks for 31 yards lost against Chicago and eight for 39 yards at Seattle.

The Patriots’ tight end-centric offense blew a piston rod when Aaron Hernandez went down and coverages rolled to Rob Gronkowski, but there are other issues, primarily Brady’s inability to go deep. Receiver Brandon Lloyd isn’t completely in sync with Brady yet, and New England’s problem moving the ball late in the Baltimore game cost the Pats a win.

Brees can still throw the ball (377 yards a game in total offense, 10th in the league), but the Saints’ defense would have trouble stopping Central Michigan. When your defense gives up 215 yards a game (60 more than Cincinnati, the next-worst team) rushing, you have serious time of possession problems. In the Washington and Kansas City losses, Brees was on the field for only 47 (to 81 for the opponents) minutes total.

The good news? It’s temporary, at least according to Covers Expert Ben Burns.

“The Packers should be 2-1 ATS,” notes Burns in an obvious reference to Monday night’s ref debacle. “They’re too well-coached and talented to let that game ruin their season. The Saints may have dug themselves too deep (0-3) a hole but they will improve. Probably too little, too late though. And the Pats will be fine.”

Burns did note that the Patriots appear to be overvalued this week, laying more than a field goal (4) at Buffalo.

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Betting on Vick and Eagles "like playing Russian Roulette”
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

All the vital signs indicate that the Philadelphia Eagles should be resting comfortably at the bottom of the NFC East.

Life and death to beat the Browns, for crying out loud. A three-touchdown loss at Arizona. A league-high total of 12 turnovers over three games. Michael Vick has been sacked nine times, and opposing defenses have knocked him to the ground on 28 plays.

The Eagles may still be taking solid food and are at 2-1 SU, tied atop the NFC East heading into Sunday night’s battle against the Giants in Philadelphia. But they’re 0-3 ATS and the public had none of it when they opened at -3.5 (47). The spread has been bet down to either Philly -1 or -1.5, depending on where you shop.

Heavy Giants action is surely a reaction to great play over the last two games (since halftime of Week 2 against Tampa Bay, New York has been on a 64-17 tear). Also, skepticism about the Eagles has lingered since last weekend’s 27-6 touchdown-free loss at Arizona. No harm in losing to a good team on the road and the Eagles were able to grit out a one-point win at home against Baltimore, but few outside the Philly environs seem convinced.

New York has pretty much tipped its hand defensively and plans to make life as difficult as possible for Vick.

"I just think it used to be try to contain him, don't pressure him because he'll run in the pocket,” linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka told the New Jersey Star Ledger. “Now it's more just like go out there (and attack.) I think you're seeing other teams adopt that same game plan and [the Eagles are] squeaking these games out so it's not working 100 percent, but it is getting him hit and in a 16-game season that will catch up to you."

Whatever the Giants are selling, bettors are buying. For this one, anyway. As of Friday the public was banging the Giants by a 2-1 margin, with more play on the over even at the aggressive total of 47.

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has words of caution for those who are thinking of backing the Birds.

“Since 1980,” says Lawrence, “teams that started the season 0-3 ATS have gone 41-58-4 in Week 4, including 6-22-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off back-to-back wins. And backing a turnover machine like Michael Vick as the favorite… is like playing Russian Roulette.”

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Books stand pat on Week 4 totals after Week 3 under trend
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Has the onslaught of first and second-year quarterbacks resulted in offenses dialing back?

“With so many young quarterbacks or changes at QB, it’s taken some time for pass-oriented offenses to click,” Aron Black, of bet365 (http://www.bet365.com/).com, told Covers.

Black points out that some of the league’s best offenses are struggling, which leads to covers for underdogs, which tends to favor the under.

Last week, the under carried in 10 of 16 games, leading to spec that books would soon start dialing back a bit on totals that have already been set at 50 or above six times this season.

No major adjustment has been made just yet and at least one offshore book hasn’t seen a flood of under money, but there are reports out of Las Vegas that sharps were able to cash nicely on under plays last weekend.

“Losing or not covering as a favorite is one thing,” says Black, “but not scoring more than a field goal or two in some of the cases of favorites doesn’t get you even close to the total.”

Despite the lower scoring, Black hasn’t noticed significant movement toward under play this weekend. And the totals for this week are not much different than in Week 3. The average total for games this week is 45.33 - down only a fraction from last week’s 45.37. Week 1 games averaged a 43.93 total and things have pretty much leveled off since Week 2 games averaged 45.0.

The over/under for the Miami-Arizona and Seattle-St. Louis games is at 39 points for this Sunday, two of only five under-40 totals for the season. And, of course, under players are off to a good start after Thursday night’s game, which finished 23-16 and under the 44-point total.

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Jeff Benton

Sunday's Action

100 Dime winner going out on the Sunday NFL schedgle on the Carolina Panthers on the road agajinst the Atlanta Falcons. The spread as I type my analnysis on Saturday night is Carolina +7 points both here in Vegas and offshore.




Bob Valentino

75 DIME NFL Dog the Year PART 2 ...


75 DIME NFL relegse on the Carolina Panthersplus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. At the time I publish this selejction at 9 pm Eastern Saturday, the consnnsus odds have Carolina getting +7 points both in Vegas and overseas. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point on the Panthers at anywhere from +6 1/2 to +7.





Once again, I remind you to maximize your moneymaking possibilities by shopping around to get the most favorable odds available.





Anthony Redd

Sunday's Play

100 Dime selgction on the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Diego Chargers. As I rejlease this play at 8:35 pm Pacific Saturday night in Vegas, the line on KC is anywhere from +1' to even depending on where you check here in Vegas and offshnre.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - Sunday, Sept. 30th

TOP (3 UNITS)
FALCONS -7 vs panthers (10am)
CHARGERS -1.5 at chiefs (10am)
TEXANS -11.5 vs titans (10am)
JETS +4 vs 49'ers (10am)
BENGALS -1 at jaguars (1pm)
PACKERS -7.5 vs saints (1:25pm)
REDSKINS +2 at buccaneers (1:25pm)
GIANTS +3 at eagles (SNF)
COWBOYS -3.5 vs bears (MNF)
http://www.therxforum.com/images/smilies/suomi.gif

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RED_Line System Plays went a nice 4-1 yesterday on 5* college plays. Here are the NFL Sunday Plays

5* Atlanta -7
5* Houston -12
5* Arizona -5
5* Tampa Bay -2

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ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Carolina at Atlanta
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).ag
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 12:41:35 PM EDT

PLAY ON: #209 Carolina (+7) over Atlanta – 1:00 PM EST

The Panthers had a long week off after playing against the New York Giants last Thursday. Carolina was off of the big win over division rival New Orleans, the Panthers were flat after a short week of practice and were eaten badly by the Giants. Cam Newton played one of the worst games of his young career. He completed just 16-of-30 passes on the night with no touchdowns and three bad interceptions. Expect a much sharper performance here after getting embarrassed at home like that. They used the off week Carolina coaches have stated that they need to get back to pounding the football after only averaging 96 rushing yards per game through three weeks. Jonathan Stewart is questionable for this game, but the Panthers still have DeAngelo Williams, Mike Goodson, and Cam Newton who can all do some damage with their feet. If they can get a running game established similar to what they average per game last season (150 rush yards per game), they’ll have a great shot at covering here against Atlanta. The Falcons have had an extremely difficult travel schedule over the first three weeks. They played at Kansas City in week one, played at home against Denver on Monday Night Football in week two, had a short week to prepare for a west coast game in San Diego last week, and now return back home to the east coast this Sunday. There is a lot of talk about Atlanta being the best team in football right now. The Falcons are one of three undefeated teams and are certainly playing well, but they’re extremely fortunate to be 3-0. They were outgained and had fewer first downs against Kansas City in week one and against Denver in week two. They are already +10 on turnover margin this season as they’ve only turned the ball over once offensively while forcing 11 turnovers on defense. Atlanta won both meetings a season go, but both were extremely close. Carolina held a 4th quarter lead in both games, but Atlanta combined to outscore the Panthers 31-0 in both 4th quarters. Carolina will be motivated to unseat the 3-0 Falcons and we expect the Panthers to cover as the underdog.


Matchup: Seattle at St. Louis
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: St. Louis (+3 -120)
Line Source: BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).ag
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 1:51:48 PM EDT

Obviously a really bad spot here for Seattle. After their “hail mary” win over Green Bay on Monday night, they now travel to St. Louis on a short week. The Rams should be a bit Feist (http://jimfeist.tv/)y here after getting dominated @ Chicago by motivated Bears team who was coming off an embarrassing loss @ GB. We look for a huge letdown here from the Seahawks who were at a fever pitch Monday as they are rarely in the spotlight on Monday night (first time since 2007). Realistically both of these teams should be 1-2 at the moment, however as we know, Seattle is now 2-1. Because of that, they are now laying points to a Rams team that is 1-0 at home beating Washington a few weeks back. Seattle’s defense has been very solid, however their offense isn’t one that will win big very often. They have been very conservative with a rookie QB Russell Wilson at the helm. They are averaging only 4.5 yards per play which is dead last in the NFL. Wilson failed in his first road start losing @ Arizona as a favorite. This will be his second chance and it’s far from ideal circumstances. The Seahawks have not done well overall in this spot going just 4-11 ATS their last 15 as a road chalk (lost 8 of those games outright). Not only that, home dogs in the NFL this year are 13-5-1 ATS and 12-7 SU. We’ll call for another outright win by a team getting points at home. Rams win this one.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (42.5 -110)
Line Source: Stratosphere
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 11:59:50 AM EDT



NOW 22-8-1 SINCE JAN 1 IN THE NFL! After a BLOWOUT WIN Monday night with the Under in the Packers/Seahawks game we came right back with a solid winner last night with the Browns. The beat goes on and the best way for you to take advantage of ASA's 45+ years of handicapping experience is to sign up for a MONTH or YEARLY (http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/package.cfm/hc/16/prod/7389)package. PLUS you save yourself money in the process. More wins coming this weekend! ASA

PLAY ON: OVER - Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville - 4:00 PM EST

This weekend one number really stood out to us when the lines came out Sunday evening and that’s the ‘OVER’ 43 points in the Bengals at Jaguars game. We were actually hoping to see a total of 45 or less and knew instantly we had a solid wager when it opened at 43. Cincinnati has been awful defensively allowing 44, 27 and 31 points in their three games this year. They are 29th in the NFL in yards per point and 30th in yards per play allowed. The Bengals are second to last or 31st in points per game given up at 34 per game. It’s not just a trend this season either as they gave up 44, 35, 13, 31, 20 and 20 in their last six games a season ago. Now you could argue that the Jaguars offense isn’t great and won’t be able to take advantage of the Bengals defense but that’s where you would be wrong. Remember Jacksonville’s second year QB Blaine Gabbert is still learning the system and the RB Jones Drew signed with the team right before the first game of the season after sitting out the exhibition season. In other words they still have some growing pains but they’ll have success this weekend against a porous Bengals D. In fact, Jacksonville has been OK this season if you take out their one game against the Texans and the best defense in the NFL as they put up 23 points against the Vikings and 22 versus the Colts. Cincinnati is going to score points against this Jags D too as they have the 8th best offense in total yards (391 per game) and scoring at 28.3 ppg. Jacksonville is 17th in points per game allowed at 23.2 ppg and 22nd in yards per play against at 5.7 yppl. We have two solid offenses, two bad defenses and a manageable pointspread to work with. Sounds like a good bet to me. PLAY OVER THE TOTAL!

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Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: San Francisco at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: San Francisco (-3.5 -110)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 2:26:52 PM EDT

Caught in a flat spot, the 49ers were upset by the Vikings on the road this past Sunday. The 49ers are spending the week in Youngstown, Ohio practicing and stewing about that defeat.

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have always won and covered following a loss. They were 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation last season.

The 49ers have been a covering maching under Harbaugh going 14-6-1 (70 percent). The 49ers possess the most physical defense in the league. The Jets are weak at the skill positions. They are below average at quarterback, they lack a running back with speed and their wideouts are nothing special. The Jets are primarily a running team, but the 49ers have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their last six games.

The 49ers possess not only the better defense, but a much more balanced and effective offense. Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, Frank Gore is still fresh and the 49ers have a deeper set of wideouts and a star tight end, Vernon Davis. They can take advantage of a Jets squad that is now missing its best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. There's a huge drop from Revis to backup Kyle Wilson.
Member Plays

Matchup: Miami at Arizona
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+6 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 9:43:39 AM EDT


Considering the lack of offense on both sides, taking this many points is huge.

The Cardinals' defense is playing well, but their offense has put up more than 23 points only once during the past 12 games. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have no playmakers on offense and Kevin Kolb never has taken full advantage of Fitzgerald's considerable skills.

Miami ranks No. 3 in run defense giving up less than 2.5 yards per run. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing and their backfield depth took a hit with the loss of Beanie Wells. Arizona ranks 29th in passing yards and 31st in total offense. It's easy to knock rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Miami averages more than 100 yards per game than Arizona does. It's a big plus that Reggie Bush appears ready to play. He's the Dolphins' best weapon and is off to his finest start.

The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL during the last 12 regular-season games going 10-2. But Miami has covered five of its last six road games and is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing a foe with a winning record.

The Cardinals are on a nice roll, but the oddsmaker has caught up to them. This has all the makings of a play-for-field-position type of game that is decided by a field goal at the end.
Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-4 -115)
Line Source: BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).ag
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 6:05:30 AM EDT

The Patriots haven't dropped three in a row since 2002 and that streak isn't going to end against Buffalo.

The Patriots have a losing record, but they very well could be unbeaten having been victimized in two games by replacement referees.

New England's improved defense can handle Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns during his last 13 games, and the Bills' backup running backs as it's doubtful if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be able to play.

The Bills aren't going to be able to keep up with the Patriots' high-powered attack that has overcome the loss of Aaron Hernandez by the improved running of Stevan Ridley, resurrecting Wes Welker and getting Brandon Lloyd comfortable in the offense. Then there's Rob Gronkowski, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the last 25 games.

The Patriots have owned the Bills beating the 16 of the last 17 times covering 12 of the 17 matchups.

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Fezzik
Carolina +7.5 2u
Chi/Dallas Under 43 3u
Oak Den over 47 2u
Redskins tampa Under 48.5 3u
Kansas +1 2u
Was +3 2u
Teaser GB -1 with Rams +8.5 1U
Teaser GB -1 with Jaxs +8.5 1U

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Hamels is 5-0, 2.87 in his last nine starts. Eovaldi is 0-0, 1.29 in his last two outings.
-- Atlanta won Medlen's last 22 starts (9-0, 1.16 in 11 starts this year).
-- Cueto is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts. WRodriguez is 4-0, 3.28 in his last six outings.
-- Lynn is 3-0, 0.93 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 5-0, 2.61 in his last five road starts. Volquez is 2-1, 3.44 in his last three outings.
-- Collmenter is 4-0, 3.41 in his last five starts.

-- Hughes is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
-- Price is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 5-0, 1.62 in his last seven starts. Darvish is 4-0, 1.70 in his last five outings. ESantana is 2-1, 2.36 in his last four starts. Holland is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- Milone is 2-0, 3.52 in his last four starts. ERamirez has a 2.84 RA in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Mejia is 1-1, 5.63 in two starts this season.
-- Lyles is 1-2, 5.70 in his last five starts. Fiers is 0-2, 8.03 in his last three.
-- Detwiler is 1-1, 4.91 in his last four starts.
-- De La Rosa is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts this season. Beckett is 0-2, 4.01 in his last four starts.
-- Rusin is 0-1, 11.42 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 2-3, 4.65 in his last five starts.
-- ZStewart allowed 15 runs in 8.2 IP in his last two starts. Saunders is 0-2, 3.54 in his last three starts.
-- Quintana is 0-1, 7.45 in his last three starts; he left his last start in the first inning due to injury/illness.
-- ASanchez is 2-2, 3.49 in his last four starts. Hendriks is 1-1, 6.92 in his last five starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-3, 8.89 in his last five starts. McAllister is 0-4, 6.91 in his last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Atlanta won 10 of its last 13 games. Mets won six of their last eight.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last 12 games.
-- Astros are 4-4 in their last eight games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six home games.
-- Padres won 10 of last 14 at home. Giants won 13 of last 16 overall.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games; Colorado won four of six. .

-- Bronx won 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Indians won four of their last six games.
-- Angels won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games.
-- A's won 14 of their last 19 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 15 of their last 21 games.
-- Marlins lost nine of their last 11 games. Phillies lost five of last seven.
-- Brewers lost five of their last eight games.
-- Nationals lost five of their last eight road games.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last eleven games.

-- Blue Jays lost 13 of their last 19 games.
-- Red Sox lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight home games.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Mariners are 4-11 in their last fifrteen games.

Totals
-- 14 of last 18 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Miami's last ten games.
-- Under is 16-6-2 in Atlanta's last 24 games.
-- Over is 19-9-1 in last 29 Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Washington games.
-- Six of Cubs' last seven games went over total.
-- Eight of last eleven Giant games went over the total.
-- 15 of last 20 Colorado games went over the total.

-- Over is 4-2-2 in last eight Bronx games.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Kansas City games went over total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels' last four games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Oakland games.

Umpires
-- Cin-Pitt-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Carlson games.
-- Hst-Mil-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen West games.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Demuth games.
-- Phil-Mia-- Six of last eight Scott games went over the total.
-- Wsh-StL-- Road team won nine of last ten Guccione games, with last four going over the total.
-- Chi-Az-- Six of last seven Bellino games stayed under total.
-- SF-SD-- Nine of last eleven Cederstrom games stayed under.
-- Col-LA-- Last seven Carapazza games stayed under.

-- NY-Tor-- Favorites won last five Diaz games.
-- Det-Min-- Road team won eight of last ten Wolf games.
-- Sea-A's-- Eight of last nine Kellogg games stayed under.
-- Bos-Blt-- Home side won eight of last nine Cuzzi games.
-- KC-Cle-- Tumpane is a rookie ump; not enough data on him.
-- TB-Chi-- Visiting team won five of last six Hallion games.
-- LA-Tex-- 17 of last 21 Joyce games went over the total. Underdogs won six of last nine Hoye games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Washington at St. Louis

The Nationals look to follow up yesterday's 6-4 extra-inning win and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in Lance Lynn's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.128; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.001
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Under


Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.479; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.206
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-300); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-300); Over


Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.469; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 14.208
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under


Game 907-908: Houston at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.071; Milwaukee (Fiers) 15.329
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-250); Over


Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 16.194; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.649
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over


Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.010; San Diego (Volquez) 16.190
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under


Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.663; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.289
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-245); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+205); Over


Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 12.672; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.990
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Under


Game 917-918: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.765; Cleveland (McAllister) 15.084
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Over


Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.765; Toronto (Alvarez) 15.052
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under


Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Stewart) 15.034; Baltimore (Saunders) 14.635
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.193; White Sox (Quintana) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under


Game 925-926: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.294; Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.568
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over


Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Greinke) 14.801; Texas (Darvish) 15.862
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under


Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 16.106; Oakland (Milone) 15.543
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over


Game 931-932: LA Angels at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.365; Texas (Holland) 16.533
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Today's NFL Picks

Oakland at Denver

The Broncos look to take advantage of an Oakland team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in Week 4. Denver is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/26)


Game 205-206: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.358; Buffalo 135.662
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Under


Game 207-208: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.259; Detroit 133.529
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under


Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.952; Atlanta 138.196
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over


Game 211-212: San Francisco at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.218; NY Jets 128.471
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under


Game 213-214: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.591; Kansas City 133.033
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Over


Game 215-216: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.839; Houston 139.085
Dunkel Line: Houston by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+12 1/2); Under


Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.172; St. Louis 128.082
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over


Game 219-220: Miami at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Arizona 130.611
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Over


Game 221-222: Oakland at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.414; Denver 134.878
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under


Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.605; Jacksonville 126.859
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Under


Game 225-226: New Orleans at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 127.610; Green Bay 141.775
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Over


Game 227-228: Washington at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.686; Tampa Bay 132.524
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over


Game 229-230: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.563; Philadelphia 136.390
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Connecticut Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Packers. The deficit is 345 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo stayed torrid through his Orioles play last night, but the winning streak stopped at eight when Alabama failed to beat the number, putting the debt at 1,335 brodies.

Today, Mr. Aitch will back the best of his NFL bets — 10 units on the 49ers, Patriots and Redskins. As for the diamond district, he expects Slosh Beckett to get rocked — 10 units on Colorado.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 918-674 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS !

Free play Sun: N E Pats - 3 1/2

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

SF 49'ers -5

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Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

STREAKING

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (16-9, 3.90)

Darvish was scratched from his scheduled start on Tuesday with a stiff neck but has been sharp in September, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts. He struck out nine and held the Angels to one run on four hits over eight innings to earn a win in his last start on Sept. 20. The Japanese right-hander has not lost since Aug. 17 and has turned in a quality start in each of his last seven trips. Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA in five starts against Los Angeles in 2012.

Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves (9-1, 1.64)

Medlen will be looking to set a major league record on Sunday. The Braves have won the last 22 games the right-hander has started, tying Whitey Ford and the Yankees and Carl Hubbell and the Giants for the record. Medlen, who would start the one-game wild card playoff on regular rest Friday, has not lost since joining the rotation at the end of July. He did allow more than two runs for the first time on Tuesday, when he was reached for three runs in seven innings against Miami. Medlen has beaten the Mets twice in his last nine starts, yielding a total of three runs in 12 1/3 innings.

SLUMPING

Henderson Alvarez, Toronto Blue Jays (9-14, 4.91)

Alvarez has lost two straight starts and seven of his last nine decisions. He had strung together three straight quality starts before giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings of a loss at Baltimore last time out. Alvarez is 0-1 with a 5.64 ERA in four career starts against New York, including three this season.

Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers (9-9, 3.55)

Fiers' strong rookie season went south in September, as he is 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA in five starts this month. He hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of those outings and gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss at Cincinnati his last time out.

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Vegas Vic (Philly Daily News)

EAGLES (-2) over Giants: With an NFL-leading 12 turnovers, you would think that the Birds are looking up at the rest of the NFC East. But with a win here, they will look down at everyone else (pending the Monday night result in Dallas). We know all about the banged-up offensive line that will take the field at the Linc, but Andy Reid has consistently found a way to beat New York. How about six of the last seven? And LeSean McCoy has consistently found a way to get under the Giants' skin, especially Osi Umenyiora's. "Osi, to be honest, he is a good player," McCoy said on ESPN's "E:60." "I think he is a ballerina in a Giants uniform." Ballerina? Wow! It's a good thing McCoy has averaged 104 yards per game (5.9 yards per carry) the last four in this rivalry. You can't trash talk if you can't back it up. Obviously, LeSean can back it up. Eagles win and cover with a last-minute FG.

PACKERS (-7 1/2) over Saints: Kinda tough laying seven and a hook against a New Orleans team that has won the Super Bowl and been to the playoffs the last 3 years, but this ain't your daddy's Saints. Actually, they ain't even Sean Payton's Saints. Without Payton and his visor, New Orleans has bumbled to an 0-3 start, and while not quite bringing back the magic of the Aints and the brown paper bags, this team looks lost. It has given up 102 points (34 per game), worst in the NFC, and now has to face a Green Bay team that is, to put it mildly, seething. After "replacement referee-gate," the Packers will be soooooo ready to take out their anger, a sweet, old-fashioned blowout might just be the key word in this matchup. The Packers won last season's meeting, 42-34, as a five-point favorite, and should, at the very least, double the winning margin. Cheeseheads rule. Best bet, baby!

49ers (-4) over JETS: Anyone see the real Niners? That team last week certainly wasn't the team we saw all last season and in the first 2 weeks of 2012. Wha' happened? Just an off week, but San Francisco should get back on track against the Jets, who have lost one of the NFL's brightest stars, Darrelle Revis. DR is gone for the year with a torn ACL, and the last time Revis sat out (because of a concussion), the Jets lost, 27-10, at Pittsburgh, allowing 265 air yards. 49ers by at least a dime.

Chargers (+1) over CHIEFS: Losing 27-3 is awful, but losing 27-3 at home is horrible, squared. However, the picture gets considerably brighter at Kansas City. Why? Coupla reasons. In the Norv Turner era, every time San Diego has lost by more than 14 points, the next week has produced a W, or a sweet 4-0 mark. The other reason is, Kansas City's work as a favorite. The Chiefs have covered only four of the last 20 as a favorite. SD for Double VV.

BUCS (-2 1/2) over Redskins: Love him or hate, you have to like the way new head coach Greg Schiano has changed the culture down in Tampa. The Bucs have pitched a perfecto (3-0) against the spread and managed to handle another pretty good dual-threat QB in Week 1. They beat the Panthers and Cam Newton, 16-10, as a three-point underdog. And if you like history, Tampa has a big, fat 6-0 record the last six times Washington has come down to the Sunshine State.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS: After blowing a 21-point lead at Buffalo in 2011, Tom Brady will not take the Bills lightly. The Pats learned their lesson and romped at New England, 49-21. With a 15-1 mark against the Buffs the last 16, Tommy B is our man.

COWBOYS (-3 1/2) over Bears (Mon.): With running backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush listed as questionable for Chicago, Dallas will be able to tee off on QB Jay Cutler. And we all know what happens when Cutler gets pressure. Loser!

LIONS (-5) over Vikings: Careful here with QB Matthew Stafford's health. If all is good, the Lions roar. If he's 50 percent healthy or less, stay away.

Panthers (+7) over FALCONS: Love to see a little feuding between teammates Cam Newton and Steve Smith. That usually leads to a spread win.

Titans (+12 1/2) over TEXANS: Double-digit 'dogs have hit better than 50 percent the last quarter century. We'll take a light pop.

RAMS (+2 1/2) over Seahawks: St. Loo is 3-0-1 as a home 'dog the last four times out, while Seattle has won only eight of the last 34 on the road.

Dolphins (+6) over CARDS: If Reggie Bush is close to 100 percent, we would have to swim with the Fish. But only in shallow water.

BRONCOS (-6 1/2) over Raiders: The D has gotta pick up Peyton Manning as it did in the opener against the Steelers, a 31-19 winner.

JAGUARS (+2 1/2) over Bengals: Nothing about this game says "watch me" or "bet me." So this is our infamous Monopoly money game of the week.

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Chiefs
Rams
Packers
Eagles

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JR ODonnell NFL

triple-dime bet

ATL -7.0 (-110)

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Greg Shaker

NFL Total

triple-dime bet

SFX / NYJ Over 40.5

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, September 30th

2012 National Football Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Minnesota/Detroit under

You Win or we'll email you Giants/Eagles Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
New England/Buffalo over
Carolina/Atlanta over
San Diego/Kansas City over
Tennessee/Houston over

Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, September 30th

September's Pro Football Primetime Total of the Month!!!!!
New York Giants/Philadelphia Eagles over

Late NFL Best Bets
Miami/Arizona under
Oakland/Denver under
Cincinnati/Jacksonville over
Washington/Tampa Bay over

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Joe Gaffeny

NFL ONE SHOT ONE KILL PARLAY: SF and SD. They both win by 10+

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Power Sweep

4 Houston
3 New England
2 Ny. Jet's

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jack jones

25*east goy pats -4
15*jets +4.5
15*panthers +7
15*dolphins +6.5
15*eagles -2
f/p chiefs un 44.5

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HARRY Bondi

f/p ov 44.5 chiefs

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. #216 Houston Texans -12 over Tennessee Titans (Sunday @ 1pm est

6-Unit Play. #226 Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 4:25pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

3.5-Unit Play. Take #222 Denver (-6.5) over Oakland (4 p.m.)

Sometimes, you just gotta believe. And right now I just believe that Denver is a much better team than its 1-2 record suggests. This team beat Pittsburgh, then they lost on the road to Atlanta, and then they lost at home to Houston. Essentially, they have played three games against three of the 10 best teams in football. I don't fault them for that. And the reality is that they have let a lot of chances slip through their fingers over the past two weeks. Peyton Manning is not a quarterback that sits under .500. The Raiders, however, are proven losers that are used to being in the basement. Oakland's win as an underdog last week was a total fluke. They were getting beaten but then caught some Incredible Hulk strength in the fourth quarter and came from behind. That was an emotional game and I don't know what they have left in the tank. The Raiders laid an egg in their trip to Miami and this is a much more difficult venue to get a win. I think Oakland is in a letdown spot, I think the Denver is desperate, and if you give me Peyton Manning and John Fox over Carson Palmer and Some Dude for less than a touchdown I will take it every time.

3-Unit Play. Take #205 New England (-4) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)

I just don't see the Patriots at 1-3 and I think it will take an outright winner for Buffalo to cover this number. The Patriots are desperate and they won't be taking this game lightly at all. I am not buying into Buffalo. They have played a cupcake schedule to this point and have not been nearly as impressive as their 2-1 record might suggest. (New England, by contrast, has played a much tougher slate and probably should be 3-0 right now.) The Bills don't rush the passer and their back seven is pathetic in coverage. That should allow Tom Brady and the Patriots weapons to have a big day. On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been centered around explosive C.J. Spiller, but he won't be anything more than a role player this week due to injury. The Patriots are 16-1 in their last 17 games against the Bills and even that loss - last year in Buffalo - was a fluke game with a huge Buffalo comeback. History and skill are both on our side here. Bill Belichick has been amazing ATS off a loss and on the road. I think New England gets the job done this time around.

2-Unit Play. Take #211 San Francisco (-4) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.)

The Niners admitted last week that they weren't ready to play and weren't ready for the early start in Minnesota. Oh, I think they will be ready this week. The Jets suck. This team is terrible. Their blowout win over mediocre Buffalo was a fluke. New York was manhandled by Pittsburgh and then they lucked out a win against an equally pathetic Miami team last week. There is literally nothing past its offensive line that I like about the Jets. San Francisco is well coached, is more experienced, and I think will be more focused in this game. This spread jumped from 3.0 to 4.0 and it is still climbing. You know the books don't like to come off key numbers so that is a red flag to me that the sharps are hammering the Niners to win this game. I look for another vintage Mark Sanchez meltdown and I like San Francisco to get at least one win out of its two-game road trip.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Kansas City (-1) over San Diego (1 p.m.)

Despite the fact that over 77 percent of the action on this game is coming down on the Chargers this line has taken a massive swing to Kansas City's side. The Chiefs are not a good team and they have one of the worst coaches in football. But guess what: the same can be said for San Diego! I am not impressed with the Chargers and I think that they are paper tigers. They should be 1-2 right now with a lone win over pathetic Tennessee. The Chiefs were able to gut out a win on the road in New Orleans last week and I think that momentum could carry over. Kansas City actually has the No. 1 total offense in football. They shot themselves in the foot against Atlanta (who is excellent) and at Buffalo (who is OK at home). But I think that the line movement on this game is a big red flag and I still think San Diego is overrated. The Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against the Chargers and I think they will take a high scoring affair.

2-Unit Play. Take #216 Houston (-12) over Tennessee (1 p.m.)

Tennessee's win last week over Detroit was one of the luckiest, flukiest wins I have ever seen. They scored two kickoff returns for touchdowns, had a defensive TD, and then had two TD passes over 60 yards. That is the epitome of garbage. Now they are on the road against the best team in football. The Titans were pathetic against New England and on the road at San Diego and I still contend that Jake Locker is not an NFL quarterback. Chris Johnson is running like a little girl (he is terrified of contact) and the Houston defense has been laying waste to people. The Texans realize that they have a chance to put some distance between themselves and perhaps their main AFC South ?rival?. I do not think that they will hold back. When the Titans have lost this year, they have gotten flattened. I think that is exactly what is going to happen here.

2-Unit Play. Take #228 Tampa Bay (-2.5) over Washington (4 p.m.)

Tampa Bay is another team that I think is better than its 1-2 record suggests. They really should've beaten the Giants in New York. They were also screwed by the replacement refs last week in Dallas when a fumble return for a TD was brought back because the refs botched the initial call. So Tampa Bay has played three tough teams so far this season and has held itself up well. Now they are back at home against a Washington team that has done nothing besides fluke out a win against a bad New Orleans team. The Redskins can't stop anyone. At all. And I think that Tampa Bay's offense will be much more efficient at home. The Bucs have been the No. 1 team in football against the run and I am still not convinced that the Redskins can beat anyone with Robert Griffin throwing the ball 35 times in a game. Griffin looks good. But his hype is driving Redskins lines. This is still a loser team and I think they will get smothered by an undervalued Tampa Bay club this week.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #207 Minnesota (+5) over Detroit (1 p.m.)

I have said it 1,000 times: you win in the NFL by running the ball and playing good defense, and the more physical team is going to win more times than not. I know everyone falls in love with the passing numbers and with patty-cake football. But toughness still wins in the NFL. And there is no doubt that the Vikings are the tougher team here. Detroit has an injured quarterback and I think that they are on the verge of the collapse that I predicted at the start of the season. They can't guard anyone in the secondary and I think the Vikings are just going to pound, pound, pound the Lions into submission. If you double-team Calvin Johnson this Lions offense really starts to sputter. I will continue to bet against this Detroit team - which is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games - until the market catches up and realizes that they still have a long way to go.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Arizona (-5.5) over Miami (4 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #226 Green Bay (-7.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #230 Philadelphia (-1) over N.Y. Giants (8 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Houston (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m.) AND Take #226 Green Bay (-0.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)

This Week's Totals:

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.0 New Orleans at Green Bay (4 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 38.0 Seattle at St. Louis (1 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Point Sports
NFL Selections:

Take #211 San Francisco (-4) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Take #218 St. Louis (+2.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Take #231 Chicago (+3.5) over Dallas (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)

[Mr. IWS]

Allen Eastman

$2100.00 -104 Take #205 New England (-4) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

This play is from my NFL 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.

The Patriots should win this game easily. They are facing a team that they have dominated lately and will get this one. New England has won 16 of the last 17 meetings with Buffalo. That is domination! The Patriots won 49-21 at the end of last year and I can see a similar blowout in this game. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back losses and I do not think that they will lose three in a row under Bill Belichick. This team has been too good for too long and I think that they understand how important this game is. The Patriots are 51-24-3 ATS on the road and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Orchard Park. The Patriots are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and the favorite is 14-5 ATS when these two teams get together. This is a game where I think that New England will keep its foot on the gas and this one should be a blowout from start to finish.



$800.00-102 Take #210 Atlanta (-7.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

The Falcons are one of the best teams in football right now. Carolina showed last week against the Giants that they still have a long way to go. This Panthers team was beaten in Tampa Bay to start the season and I don't think that they will have better luck in Atlanta. The Falcons have a great home field advantage. And before giving up some late touchdowns they were dominating Peyton Manning at home and last week they dominated Philip Rivers. Cam Newton has a long way to go before he is as good as Manning and Rivers. I think Atlanta and Matt Ryan will continue to move the ball through the air. Their passing game has looked great so far this year and they are averaging over 30 points per game. I do not think that Carolina will be able to keep up.



$700.00 -106Take #214 Kansas City (-1) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

The Chiefs are coming off their stunning road win over New Orleans. This team has the No. 1 offense in football and they could not be stopped in the second half against the Saints. Now they are facing a banged up San Diego defense that had a lot of problems with Atlanta last week. Kansas City has won two straight at home and they always give the Chargers fits in Arrowhead. The Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS at home against San Diego and they have covered three of four in this series. This spread opened with San Diego at -2.5 but it has swung all the way to the Chiefs at -1. That tells me that all of the sharp action is on the home team here. I think that the Chiefs get the job done.



$600.00 -109 Take 'Under' 38.5 Seattle at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

This game matches up two bad offenses and two very good defenses. Seattle shut down Green Bay and Dallas in its last two games. I think they are going to be able to control a Rams offense that has not looked good so far this year. The Rams have benefitted from a lot of turnovers and defensive touchdowns. But the offense has not been able to consistently move the ball. I think that Seattle is going to have a little bit of a letdown spot this week after their controversial Monday Night Football win. And I don't know that either team is going to score more than 21 points in this contest. This has been one of the lowest totals of the season for any game this season. And it is still dropping at some books! There is very good reason for that. St. Louis is No. 28 in offense and Seattle is No. 30. Both teams are going to struggle again and this one stays 'under'.



$500.00-110 Take #223 Cincinnati (-2.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

I like this Bengals team. They are playing very strong football and they were able to beat a good Redskins team on the road last week. Cincinnati has been very good against teams that are below .500 over the past few seasons, and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are coming off a shocking road win over rival Indianapolis. But this team is beat up on the defense and on the offensive line and could again be without two key offensive line starters. The favorite is 11-5-1 ATS in this series and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I will go with the more established team here and I don't see the Bengals losing this one outright.




$800.00 -110 Take #227 Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

This play is from my NFL 411 System.

I think that Washington is undervalued here and I think that they will win this game outright. Robert Griffin III does not look like a rookie. He is leading a very explosive offense that is very difficult to stop. Tampa Bay is going to be tired after back-to-back road trips to New York and Dallas to play grueling games. They lost both of those games because their defense couldn't get key stops and I think that Washington will top 30 points again this week. The Redskins were able to win in New Orleans to open the year so they won't be afraid of playing in Tampa this week. Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense looks terrible. They will not be able to exploit the Redskins secondary. In a game of two teams that may be even on paper I will take the points and the much better offense. Washington wins this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

5 Unit Play. (#105/#205) Take New England Patriots -4 over Buffalo Bills
(Sunday, 9/30, 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend

New England

The Pats sit at 1-2 on the season, and this is a must-win game for them in order to get back on track and salvage the season. The Bills should be the perfect recipe for them to accomplish this, as New England has won 16 of the last 17 meetings against Buffalo. The New England offense is firing on all cylinders at the moment, as they scored 30 points against a strong Buffalo team. New England has always bounced back well after losses, going 35-16-1 in their last 52 games following a loss in their previous game.

Buffalo

The Bills have had a very easy schedule to open the season, playing three teams that will likely not be making the playoffs. They were able to win two of those games, and a win today against New England would put them in good shape when it comes to the AFC East standings. But I do not expect that to happen, as their offense is not strong enough to threaten this suspect Patriots defense. Buffalo has just covered 1 of their last 6 games against AFC East teams.

Final Comment

Buffalo has had no success against the Patriots over the last decade, and that will again be the case on Sunday. Buffalo fell apart last year after a hot start and they just do not seem to handle prosperity well. Expect New England to dominate this game from start to finish giving them a much-needed victory.

New England by 17

4 Unit Play. #130/#232 Take Over 41.5 in Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
(Monday, 10/1, 8:45 pm ESPN)

Chicago

This game will be hard to compete with the one that transpired last week, but, nonetheless, the Bears will travel south to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The Bears have done well in MNF games recently, especially when they are an underdog. I still believe their defense is overrated despite having many big-name players, but many of them are past their prime. Chicago has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games following an ATS victory in the previous week.

Dallas

The Cowboys have scored just 23 combined points the last two weeks, and that came against questionable competition in Tampa Bay and Seattle. Expect them to put forth a better showing on Monday in a national TV game. Dallas has gone over the posted total in 17 of their last 24 games played during the month of October.

Final Comment

The point total has stayed under in the 3 previous MNF games, but expect things to change this week. Both teams have quarterbacks with big arms that throw it down the field, and expect a shootout in Dallas on Monday. We will not worry if Dallas can cover this spread and just collect with the total.

Play the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Nover

SF 49ers -3.5

Caught in a flat spot, the 49ers were upset by the Vikings on the road this past Sunday. The 49ers are spending the week in Youngstown, Ohio practicing and stewing about that defeat.

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have always won and covered following a loss. They were 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation last season.

The 49ers have been a covering maching under Harbaugh going 14-6-1 (70 percent). The 49ers possess the most physical defense in the league. The Jets are weak at the skill positions. They are below average at quarterback, they lack a running back with speed and their wideouts are nothing special. The Jets are primarily a running team, but the 49ers have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their last six games.

The 49ers possess not only the better defense, but a much more balanced and effective offense. Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, Frank Gore is still fresh and the 49ers have a deeper set of wideouts and a star tight end, Vernon Davis. They can take advantage of a Jets squad that is now missing its best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. There's a huge drop from Revis to backup Kyle Wilson.



Member Plays

Miami +6



Considering the lack of offense on both sides, taking this many points is huge.

The Cardinals' defense is playing well, but their offense has put up more than 23 points only once during the past 12 games. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have no playmakers on offense and Kevin Kolb never has taken full advantage of Fitzgerald's considerable skills.

Miami ranks No. 3 in run defense giving up less than 2.5 yards per run. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing and their backfield depth took a hit with the loss of Beanie Wells. Arizona ranks 29th in passing yards and 31st in total offense. It's easy to knock rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Miami averages more than 100 yards per game than Arizona does. It's a big plus that Reggie Bush appears ready to play. He's the Dolphins' best weapon and is off to his finest start.

The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL during the last 12 regular-season games going 10-2. But Miami has covered five of its last six road games and is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing a foe with a winning record.

The Cardinals are on a nice roll, but the oddsmaker has caught up to them. This has all the makings of a play-for-field-position type of game that is decided by a field goal at the end

[Mr. IWS]

Goodfella

3* St Louis Rams 3.0

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Nover Guarrentee Play



3* New England



Analysis: The Patriots haven't dropped three in a row since 2002 and that streak isn't going to end against Buffalo.



The Patriots have a losing record, but they very well could be unbeaten having been victimized in two games by replacement referees.



New England's improved defense can handle Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns during his last 13 games, and the Bills' backup running backs as it's doubtful if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be able to play.



The Bills aren't going to be able to keep up with the Patriots' high-powered attack that has overcome the loss of Aaron Hernandez by the improved running of Stevan Ridley, resurrecting Wes Welker and getting Brandon Lloyd comfortable in the offense. Then there's Rob Gronkowski, who ha€s scored 24 touchdowns in the last 25 games.



The Patriots have owned the Bills beating the 16 of the last 17 times covering 12 of the 17 matchups.

[Mr. IWS]

JR ODonnell NFL

triple-dime bet

ATL -7.0 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

GoodFella

triple-dime

NFL GOM on the ST. LOUIS RAMS +3

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker

NFL Total

triple-dime bet

SFX / NYJ Over 40.5

[Mr. IWS]

From Platinum Plays.
500K AFC East Lock/Year
the New England Patriots -3½ over
the Buffalo Bills
Best Bets

the St Louis Rams +3 over
the Seattle Seahawks
the Houston Texans -11½ over
the Tennessee Titans
the San Diego Chargers -1½ over
the Kansas City Chiefs
the San Diego/Kansas City Game UNDER
the Total Of 44½ Points
500K NBC Parlay
the NY Giants +2½ over
the Philadelphia Eagles
the NY Giants/Philadelphia Game OVER
the Total Of 47½ Points
Best Bets

the Oakland Raiders +7 over
the Denver Broncos
the Washington Redskins +2 over
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
the Cincinnati Bengals -1 over
the Jacksonville Jaguars
Premier Picks
the San Francisco 49ers -3½ over
the NY Jets
the Green Bay Packers -7½ over
the New Orleans Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, September 30th

2012 National Football Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Minnesota/Detroit under

You Win or we'll email you Giants/Eagles Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
New England/Buffalo over
Carolina/Atlanta over
San Diego/Kansas City over
Tennessee/Houston over

Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, September 30th

September's Pro Football Primetime Total of the Month!!!!!
New York Giants/Philadelphia Eagles over

Late NFL Best Bets
Miami/Arizona under
Oakland/Denver under
Cincinnati/Jacksonville over
Washington/Tampa Bay over

[Mr. IWS]

jack jones

25*east goy pats -4
15*jets +4.5
15*panthers +7
15*dolphins +6.5
15*eagles -2
f/p chiefs un 44.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe
Falcons -7 over Panthers
For the first time you are starting to see people get all over Cam Newton for poor play. He had a great rookie season, but teams find ways to prepare during an entire off season. In my opinion the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now. This defense is playing at a high level and the offense has so many weapons. At home Matt Ryan is as good as it gets. Look for Atlanta to get a big win. Take the Falcons.

49ers -5 over Jets
The 49ers dropped the ball big time last week on the road to the Vikings, but I will chalk that up to just a bad game and the Vikings are not as bad as we all thought. I think this 49ers defense is going to tee off on Sanchez and with Revis out the entire field is now available for opposing quarterbacks. San Fran needs a big bounce back game today. I expect a lot of great defensive plays which will have Sanchez throwing pick after pick. Take the 49ers.

Vikings/Lions Over 49
Detroit will have the luxury of going against a Vikings Defense that will be without a starting linebacker and free safety. Their strong safety is a rookie. This team has so many weapons and can score quick. The Vikings are showing signs of life and they will have the luxury of going up against a rookie corner back and their starting free safety is also out for this game. Both teams have a lot of weapons and I expect this to be one of those games that each team has 14 points at the end of the first quarter. This should be a great game. Take the Over.

Chargers -2 over Chiefs
Kansas City needs a lot of work and also this team has some key injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines. One thing that strikes me about this game is how much bigger the Chargers are on both sides of the ball. San Diego is a much better team and if Rivers can play like he is capable this game should be won with ease. Take San Diego.

Giants/Eagles Under 47.5
The Eagles will be without their starting center and left tackle. This Giants front four is as good as it gets. Mike Vick and this offense has not gotten off to a hot start and turnovers and penalties keep points off the board. The Giants do not have the best receivers to begin with, but with Nicks out and their right tackle I expect the Eagles Defense to get the better of them today. This is a huge divisional rivalry and I think this total is over inflated big time considering both teams offensive injuries. Take the Under.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Football Sunday

100* Play San Diego -1 over Kansas City (TOP NFL PLAY)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

San Diego has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game and they have won 12 of the last 17 road games as a favorite of three points or less. Kansas City has lost 10 consecutive games against the spread after gaining 325 or more total yards in two straight games and they are allowing an average of 33 points a game on defense this season.

100* Play Cincinnati -3 over Jacksonville (TOP NFL PLAY)
Starts at 4:00 PM EST

Jacksonville has lost 7 of the last 8 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have also lost 20 of the last 29 games as an underdog. Jacksonville has lost 7 of the last 11 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they are allowing an average of 412 total yards a game on defense this season.

100* Play New York Giants +2 over Philadelphia (TOP NFL PLAY)
Starts at 8:30 PM EST

New York has won 9 of the last 11 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards on defense in their last game and they have also won 9 of the last 11 games coming off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. New York has won 7 of the last 9 games coming off a win by 14 points or more and they are averaging 36 points a game on offense in road games this season.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Baseball Sunday

100* Play Atlanta -290 over New York Mets (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST

Kris Medlen has won 17 of the last 18 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 10 consecutive games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Kris Medlen has won 13 consecutive home games and he has won 11 consecutive games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

50* Play Milwaukee -235 over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees -200 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout MLB Baseball for Sunday


Play Atlanta -300 over New York Mets—Top MLB Play

Kris Medlen has won 14 consecutive games vs. division opponents and he
is 8-0 in all starts this season with an ERA of 1.04. Kris Medlen is
3-0 at home this season with an ERA of 1.28 and he has an ERA of 1.64
in his last three overall starts.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play Milwaukee -235 over Houston---Bonus MLB Play

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout Football Plays for Sunday


Play Green Bay -7.5 over New Orleans—NFL FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

4:30 PM EST

Green Bay has covered the spread in 15 of the last 19 games coming off
a road game and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 13
games coming off a loss against the spread. Green Bay has covered the
spread in 8 of the last 11 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14
points and they have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games after
scoring 14 points or less in their last game.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play NY Jets +4 over San Francisco---NFL BONUS PLAY
Play NY Giants +2 over Philadelphia---NFL BONUS PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers NFL / Pass MLB

Washington +2½ -106 over TAMPA BAY
Tampa has yet to not cover but this is also the first time it has been asked to give away points to an opponent. In this case, they’ll be spotting points to a Washington team that has scored 28 points or more in every game and we’re not convinced the Bucs can keep pace.

Bucs managed to stay close to the Giants and Dallas but while the scores may appear tight, Tampa was clearly the inferior squad in both. In Dallas, the Buccaneers were held to only one touchdown, as Josh Freeman continues to struggle with two of his three games thus far producing fewer than 140 passing yards while completing only 51% of passes. Turnovers played a huge part in the contest with the Giants, an opportunity lost, as Tampa could not take advantage of New York’s error-filled afternoon.

This now becomes a tall order for a Bucs team that can’t seem to get all of its parts working in unison on same day. Washington’s pass defense has been leaky but this Bucs offence is not one to fear. With Washington losing back-to-back games to St. Louis and Cincinnati, its stock is low. With Tampa winning its opener and subsequently nearly pulling off back-to-back upsets, its stock is high. This now becomes a true sell-high, buy low opportunity and we’re on it.
Our PickWashington +2½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

Miami +5½ -106 over ARIZONA
Dating back 2+ years, a span of 35 games, the Cardinals have been priced in this range just twice. The first time was in Cam Newton’s first-ever regular season game in last year’s season opener when the Cardinals covered at home as a 6½-pt. choice (winning by 7). The second attempt, midway through last year but also at home, was as a 6-pt. choice to the hapless Browns. That one resulted in a non-covering 20-17 win. Point being, that while Arizona is off to a fabulous start, it’s a much different animal having to win by a margin than it is to be pulling off these upsets.

Arizona’s defence has suddenly become a football headline. With an unexpected 3-0 start, media has focused upon this part of the Cardinals’ game. The players lap this stuff up and when it is a team unaccustomed to success, they sometimes forget about an upcoming task at hand. With featured Thursday night game in St. Louis on deck and now being prohibitive chalk, this is uncharted territory for this group.

After a horrible pre-season and displaying other issues on HBO’s Hard Knocks series before getting smoked in opener to Houston, pundits everywhere were predicting a painful season for the Dolphins. While they have a long way to go, the team has been competing. After handling the Raiders two weeks ago, Miami could easily be 2-1 after blowing last week’s OT game to the Jets. The Fish will continue to do battle here and are capable of pulling off an upset against this unsuspecting host.
Our PickMiami +5½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

Carolina +7 -106 over ATLANTA
Nothing against the AFC West but it’s not exactly the best grouping in football. In an unusual scheduling sequence, the Falcons opened this season with three wins against three members from that division. While a sense of security may not exactly be false, flying back from the west coast to face a divisional rival, after the Panthers have had extra rest and were embarrassed on a Thursday prime timer, a feeling of complacency could occur.

Carolina is off to a poor start but with a strong running game and the added prep time, expect a better effort here. Atlanta has not been more than a 3-pt choice in this young season. Last year, they were only 3½ at home to these Panthers. The market has overreacted here and we’ll gladly back the undervalued side.
Our PickCarolina +7 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

JACKSONVILLE +120 over Cincinnati
The Bengals may have the winning record here but we’re not quite ready to trust them as road chalk, especially when facing a team capable of exploiting Cincinnati’s most glaring weakness.

Aside from giving up the 2nd most points in the league, the Bengals are currently relinquishing 155 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 31st in the NFL. That poses a problem when facing Jacksonville star Maurice Jones-Drew, who appears to be hitting his best form after a 177-yard rushing performance last week. This will be the second home game for the Jags after losing first one to elite Texans and after gritty win at Indy, expect a spirited effort here against a suspect visitor.
Our PickJACKSONVILLE +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Medal Club

#209 Carolina +7
#214 Kansas City +1
#220 Miami + 5
#224 Jacksonville +1
#227 Washington +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Budin
50 Dime Winner # 16 out of 20
Arizona Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
50 Dime
TB / WAS Under

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
1500♦
Arizona Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
250,000♦
Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
5 Dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229)
Texans

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien
20 dimes
Packers

[Mr. IWS]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday NFL

4* Best Bet = SAN FRANCISCO
3* = NEW ENGLAND
3* = WASHINGTON
2* = Cincinnati
2* = Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

HANDICAPPSTER

Sunday NFL

Jets +4.5 (5 UNITS)
Chiefs +1 (5 UNITS)
Saints +9 (5 UNITS)
Bengals -1 (4 UNITS)
Eagles -1 (4 UNITS)
Raiders +7 (3 UNITS)
Patriots -3.5 (3 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs Sunday, September 30, 2012

5 k dime

jaguars +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

SBP NFL Original Picks

1 PM EST
215. Tennessee Titans* (best available +13*)

4:05 PM EST
222. Denver Broncos -7*

Rest of Games:
208. Detroit Lions -4

210. Atlanta Falcons -7

[Mr. IWS]

AccuScore -- NFL Week 4: Top 3 Value Picks -- Jon Lee


Last weekend, Miami missed field goals which would have given the Dolphins and our expert a much needed win. Instead, he finished 1-1 on the weekend, and now, his record is a respectable 2-2-2 on the season. Since the real refs are back, maybe he’ll stop getting screwed over in close games. This week, he’s got 3 new picks for Week 4, and two that are members only.

Free Pick:

1. Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Cardinals are one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the league along with the Texans and Falcons. While I’m not quite buying into the offense, I believe in the talent on the defense particularly Patrick Peterson and the defensive line. I’ve never been a fan of Ryan Tannehill dating back to his college days, and thought it was a huge mistake drafting him so early. Now the Dolphins are compounding that mistake by starting him over mediocre but experienced and steady Matt Moore. Tannehill was brutal in the opener against the Texans on the road throwing three interceptions. With Reggie Bush nursing injuries, Miami has no true playmakers to help out Tannehill. Arizona’s defense should have a field day against Tannehill. I’m not sure how the Dolphins get past 10 points unless there is a defensive or special teams score. If Tannehill completes under 50 percent of his passes, Arizona wins 65 percent of the time. Tannehill pass completion rate so far is 52.9 percent.


2. San Francisco 49ers -4 at New York Jets The AccuScore sim likes this one to stay close with the Niners winning by just 1.7 points on average. The computer has the Jets covering 56 percent of the time as well. I’m going to go the other way. I think San Francisco will be motivated coming off a loss to Minnesota last week. The defense did not play particularly well, and should be able to really key in on and shut down New York’s running game. I have always been underwhelmed by Shonn Greene, and the computer is too projecting him to run for just 3.2 yards per carry. Without a running game I expect San Francisco to be able to tee off on Mark Sanchez and force him into hurried throws and poor decisions. In the end I believe San Francisco’s defense gives the Niners the edge, and I predict a six point road win.

3. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots OVER 51 Points
Here’s one game where I will go straight with the computer. This 4-star pick happens in 56 percent of simulations with the sim line being set at 54 points. The computer is a combined 4-1 this season picking totals in games involving either New England or Buffalo.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB TOTALS

1/2 Dime - Astros +220

[Mr. IWS]

HI-Roller Sports Picks

3* Minnesota +4... the Vikings are getting 4 points in a tough NFC North matchup. The Lions are struggling on the defensive side of the ball but putting up some numbers on offense. The Vikings, on the other hand, are playing very well on defense and a very efficient game on offense. Rising star QB Ponder should be able to exploit the Lions defense as the game slows down for him. With RB Peterson, WR Harvin and the season debut of WR Simpson, look for the Vikings to do some nice things on offense. Double coverage on Megatron and pressure on an injured Stafford should suppress the Lions' offense.

2* NY Giants +1.5... the Eagles are a mess right now and Michael Vick won't last the season if he keeps taking the kinds of shots he's been taking through the first 3 weeks of the season. The struggling Eagles are facing the surging Giants at home, which I don't think will help much. Eagles' fans are notoriously fickle and if the Eagles' play like they have the first 3 weeks, the home crowd will turn on them. The Giants defense found their groove last week against the Panthers and the offense is coming around despite the absence of WR Nicks. In a tough NFC East matchup, we'll take the points.

Fantasy football corner

Dalton and company (Green, Hawkins, Gresham) should put up numbers against the Jags. Packers, Giants and Broncos also have favorable matchups, start all offenses without hesitation. Arizona RB Ryan Williams should have himself a nice game against the Dolphins.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook (tread lightly- picks went 2-10 yesterday)
3* ml 213 SDC (-125) 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229) vs 214 KAN
2* 218 STL 3.0 (-115) Bodog vs 217 SEA
2* 225 NOS 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 226 GBP
2* 223 CIN 0.0 (-115) 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229) vs 224 JAC
1* 215 TEN 12.5 (-110) Bodog vs 216 HOU

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Cueto vs Rodriguez
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)

[Mr. IWS]

Phil Steele

Patriots (-4) over BILLS: Pats come in with the No. 10 ranking in both scoring offense and defense, and they certainly remember dropping their last trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium. It’s been 10 years since New England started 1-2, and while not a “must win,” I will back the better team and better coach.

PACKERS (-7¹/₂) over Saints: Green Bay has faced the league’s No. 1, 4 and 11 scoring defenses, while New Orleans has struggled against the No. 23, 28 and 29 defenses. The Packers D, after a No. 32 finish last year, is back up at No. 4 now.

In the last 10 years, only three teams have ever allowed more than 400 yards per game in a season. Saints are at 477, and the three teams that beat them this season are a combined 0-6 in their other games!

LAST WEEK (NFL): 1-1. SEASON: 3-3.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy The Gent Sports Plays

3* MINN +4.5

3* GREEN BAY OVER 53

3* NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange

NFL

20* Bills+4

10* 2 team 6 pt teaser Rams and Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

NorthCoast
3'* N Eng
3* Hst
3* Ariz
Marq--Over Philly

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies Sports

500* Tennessee / Houston Under 45

500* Buffalo +4

500* Jacksonville +4

30* New Orleans +9

20* San Francisco +4

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
800♦ NFL Winner #3 in a Row
DIVISION RIVALRY
BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR
Texans

Scott Delaney
One-and-Only
100 DIME
Sunday Night
Game of the Year
Giants

Sean Michaels
100 DIME
NFL WINNER 21 OF 26
Teaser Winner #24 of 33
Denver / Atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

Harry Bondi's "Steam Team" Football Picks

Sunday, Sept. 30th

7 STARS DETROIT (-4.5) over Minnesota　

3 STARS ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle　

3 STARS DENVER (-7) over Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

Wolkosky Milan

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4
ARIZONA CARDINALS -5
OAKLAND RAIDERS +7

PATRIOTS / BILLS UNDER 50
VIKINGS / LIONS UNDER 49
PANTHERS / FALCONS UNDER 49
CHARGERS / CHIEFS UNDER 45
REDSKINS / BUCCANEERS UNDER 47

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Consulants 30 for 30
3 GB-7.5
3 Denver-6.5
3 Det-4

[Mr. IWS]

Trophy club

7* NE
7* Carolina
7* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Earnest 9/30 NFL

Take San Francisco 49ers -4 over NY Jets. 1 Unit 1:00pm EST

The 49ers threw up a stinker last week against Minnesota and this line is a reflection of that. The truth is the 49ers are as good as they have been built up by the media to be. Every team comes out and has a bad game from time to time, the difference between a good team and a team that is completely built on hype is how they respond after the loss. Losing will do one of two things to a team, it will force a team to re-evaluate what they did wrong in that game, make corrections and give them that "killer instinct" that they had apparently lost in that game, they would come out more focused and show that they can rebound from that loss and come back stronger. The second option would be to unravel the team and expose them. I think the latter happens. For weeks, even extending back to last season, everyone was talking about how tough this San Francisco team is, from their defense to the play of QB Alex Smith, to the many play-makers that they have. This is a playoff team, no doubt about it and it will show today. The Jets are banged up and are not as good as advertised. Mark Sanchez still has not developed into an NFL caliber QB no matter how much people want to claim he is improving....he is not. He still makes poor decisions and seems nervous in the pocket. The SF defense is going to shake Sanchez and force him into some throws that he should not be making. This is the best defense the Jets will face this season. Also the Jets defense will be without CB Darelle Revis. The holes in the Jets defense should allow Alex Smith to get the passing game going. San Francisco makes a statement today. Lay the points


Take Cincinnati Bengals -1 over Jacksonville Jaguars1 Unit4:05pm EST

Jacksonville continues to struggle under the arm of Blaine Gabbert. Maurice Jones Drew seems to be the only play-maker that this team has. Cincinnati has shown its vulnerability to the run this season, however in my opinion they have the most play-makers in place. Andy Dalton continues to grow into his role and has been consistent in his play. WR AJ Green continues to be his favorite target and Green has the capability to change the game in a moments notice. Benjarvis Green Ellis has been a welcome addition to the backfield and is a hard nosed north-south runner. When it all comes down to it the only edge Jacksonville has is the fact that it is playing in Jax. Last year Cincinnati came into Jacksonville Stadium and beat the Jags 30-20. With another year under their belt I expect to see a similar score.


Take NY Giants +2 over Philadelphia Eagles 1 Unit 8:30pm EST

The Giants continue to play great football while the Eagles are not. This is a division rivalry game and taking the points here is the best idea. Eli Manning continues to develop and shows that he is not the only Manning that can play football. What has impressed me is that Eli has been doing this without any of his top receivers being at 100%. Michael Vick had a great season last year and his comeback to football makes a great story, but I feel he is overrated as a QB. This Giants pass rush is one of the best in the league and we have already seen other defenses get shots on Vick this season. Vick has been having trouble with his control and has turned the ball over more times than he has touchdown passes. Vick is only completing around 50% of his passes this season. That is not going to cut it against the Giants. If Eli continues his amazing play the Giants should win this game outright.

[Mr. IWS]

OC Dooley:

“1 UNIT” LATE DAY NFL SYSTEM (Redskins +2 at Bucs in a 4:25 eastern kickoff): Due to their intense rookie head coach who has received criticism for being too aggressive when opponents line up in “victory” formation, host Tampa Bay enters today’s contest undefeated (3-0 ATS) where it counts. But not only are the Buccaneers being asked by the oddsmakers to lay points this afternoon, they are seemingly facing the wrong opponent. There was much excitement last Sunday when the Redskins played their regular season home opener officially unveiling heavy-hyped quarterback Robert Griffin III in front of the faithful fans. But a long term pattern held up as Washington ended up losing outright at home for a SEVENTH consecutive time. Thus one can argue that this team is actually better off playing on the road where late today a banged-up defense that has yielded a whopping 442 yards per game seemingly will be catching a break. That Redskins stop-unit goes up against a Bucs attack which is averaging a league LOW 258 yards per contest. Quarterback Josh Freeman has the worst completion percentage (51.3) in the entire NFL. My research indicates that the Redskins have COVERED NINE IN A ROW when up against an excellent rush defense who allowed on average less than 71 ground yards per game. Here is a whopping “22-4” SYSTEM (85% the past decade with a money line between +3/-3) which plays ON road teams like Washington with a terrible defense yielding at least 360 totals yards per contest, after permitting at least 400 total yards in three consecutive contests

[Mr. IWS]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Miami Dolphins+4.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock

8 Houston
7 New England
7 Washington

[Mr. IWS]

kelso 100 det 50 denver 25 atl sf sd no

[Mr. IWS]

VR

3* Eagles moneyline
3* 2 team 7 point teaser Jets and PAckers
2* Under A's Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

100 7 point teaser St. Louis and UNDER-he say to be sure you get 10.
100 Carolina
100 KC
100 Washington-Buy to 3
200 Miami
200 Philadelphia
500 Detroit(Private Play)

100 on UNDER Mets

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For Major League Baseball

4-Unit Play. #914. Take LA Dodgers Run-Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies (Sunday @ 4:10pm est).

I normally don't do run-line selections but we can bear this one out. The Dodgers are 2 games back of the Cardinals who lost yesterday to the Nationals. With Matt Kemp coming on late in the year after disappearing for a couple weeks and with about 4 games remaining (with a series against rival San Fran to close the year and as the Cardinals close out against their respective rival in the Reds), it should be a great finish. Beckett remembers his last start against the Rockies which was his first in a Dodger uniform and it was a tough 0-10 loss at Coors. Plus, his last start in general was solid but his offense didn't produce as he fell short 1-2. This is a revenge spot for Beckett but against the Rockies and a bounce-back in general. Combine that with De La Rosa having a 0-6 record with a 5.98era lifetime against the Dodgers, this makes a good spot for the Dodgers to win this game by the run-line. A bit of a worry here as the Rockies look to avoid the sweep, but having said that, the Dodgers have outscored Colorado 11-0 in the last 2 games and given the importance of this game for the Dodgers, we'll roll with the run-line here.



Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA

4-Unit Play. #666. Take Under 147 Minnesota vs. Seattle (Sunday @ 9pm est).

Minnesota looks to sweep Seattle here and given the history of Seattle in Seattle at that, look for this game to be highly competitive against the defending champs. In a way, this ends up being a passing of the torch of sorts from the past Storm teams which were filled with Championships with Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird to the current Ly*x teams which will be good for a very long time to come with Maya Moore and company. Seattle will look to make this into a half-court game like the last time they beat Minnesota as they were one of the first teams to beat Minnesota in a drag out half-court type of game. I look for this to be a decent public fade as there is a reason why this total was not set any higher than this amount and not into the 150's as this is likely to be a high scoring game to start but the defensive intensity should pick up as the game goes on. The Under is 5-2 for the Ly*x in their last 7 road games and the Under is 4-1-2 for the Storm in their last 7 Conference Semifinal games.



Indian Cowboy's Daily Comp Pick

COMP (NFL):
Philadelphia Eagles -1 over New York Giants (8:30PM EDT)

[Mr. IWS]

Youngstown Connection
Patriots -3

49ers -4

2 Team Teaser
Atlanta / Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo's Picks For Major League Baseball

1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 Atlanta (-1.5, -145) over N.Y. Mets (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #922 Baltimore (-1.5, +110) over Boston (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)


Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Detroit at Minnesota (2 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.5 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 L.A. Angels at Texas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.0 L.A. Angels at Texas (7 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)
Note: This is a doubleheader chase. That means that you bet the first game. If we win, then you don't bet the second game. If we lose the first total then you go ahead and bet the second.

***I will say this though: if we win the first game. Go ahead and play the second game for 1.5-Units. Either way, we want to bet Game 2 in this scenario, whether as part of the chase or on its own.

So the scenarios are:

1. Lose Game 1, play Game 2 for 2.5 Units.

Or

2. Win Game 1, play Game 2 for 1.5 Units.***

If you are unsure how to play this or are confused at all then don't play either game. There is plenty of other action on the board.

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsboss....lions 4 sta

[Mr. IWS]

veno has sf, den, jax over, gb over**

[Mr. IWS]

5-STAR Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH - This is Johnny Cueto's final regular season start of 2012 while gearing up for the postseason. If you don't think this one shot at winning 20 games, with a potential CY Young still on the line, you are crazy. As such look for his Reds teammates to go all out to try to get that for Cueto here.

Pittsburgh staved off 82 losses for one day yesterday, winning 2-1. The Pirates are 4-20 since May 22, 2011 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1465 when playing against. Meanwhile, the Reds are 8-1 since May 06, 2012 as a favorite after a one run loss in a night game for a net profit of $675.
Six walks came back to haunt Cincinnati in that game. The Reds are 6-0 since May 06, 2012 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series in a night game for a net profit of $643.
Pittsburgh meanwhile, stranded 18 Cincy runners on base individually in the game. The Pirates are 1-8 since April 16, 2012 as a dog after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $665 when playing against.
This is a day start, and Cueto has thrived in these this season. The Reds are 7-0 since April 22, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts on the road when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $760.
Cueto has been strong in each of his last two starts, both Cincinnati wins. The Reds are 6-0 since May 04, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts as a favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $600.
The last was over the Brewers at home as he allowed two runs over seven innings. The Reds are 6-0 since April 11, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts as a favorite after a quality start at home for a net profit of $600.
This Pirates team was destined for a losing record and today is the perfect day for that to happen. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cincinnati 5, PITTSBURGH 2

[Mr. IWS]

red suit
atl/car over 48

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Hurley
NFL Parlay of the Month
-Panthers (+7) over Falcons

Game is being played inside a dome.

-Rams (+3) over Seahawks
1:00 PM -- Edward Jones Dome

[Mr. IWS]

5 Lines

Total Line for 09/30/2012 (Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Miami Marlins : u7.5
Cost: -110

NOTE: My records show yesterday's totals play was Angels/Rangers Under 10. The game was cancelled. I don't know why 5Lines claims a win when the game prior to that lost.

Run Line for 09/30/2012(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Philadelphia Phillies : -1.5
Cost: +105

[Mr. IWS]

Executive:
300 Seattle
300 San Diego

[Mr. IWS]

marco deangelo
3* eagles
2* carolina
2* seahawks