10-11-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Chase Diamond

Vegas Winning Crew

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

100 DIMES TITANS +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

4* (NFL) Steelers/Titans Over 42
3* (NCAAF) Western Kentucky -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners


2 STAR SELECTION
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Sport: NFL
Time: 7:25pm Central Time
TV: NFL Network




(101) Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
(Risking $220 to win $200)
(Line from 5dimes.com on 10/9/12)


The Titans are really struggling on the offensive side of the ball. I expected Matt Hasselbeck starting at quarterback to actually be a good thing for Tennessee, but so far it has not been. One of Hasselbeck’s biggest strengths as a full-time starter was limiting turnovers, but Hasselbeck has already thrown three interceptions this season in only seventy nine attempts. The Titans running game is also non existent. A lot of people thought running back Chris Johnson was getting back on track after Johnson rushed for 141 yards against the Texans, but Johnson managed only 24 yards on 15 carries against the Vikings. Through the five games of the season, Johnson has only rushed for 210 yards and has been held to less than 25 yards in four of the first five games. I don't expect that to change against the Steelers. Defensively the Titans have not been very good either as they are just 25th in passing defense and 28th in rushing defense. The Steelers offense should have a field day with Big Ben throwing the Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emanuel Sanders and tight end Heath Miller. The Pittsburgh offense also got a boost in the running game with the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall who led the Steelers with 81 yards on 14 carries good for 5.7 yards per carry and one touchdown against a solid Eagle defense. I'm laying the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Underground Sports Connection

Underground Original - Troy

[Mr. IWS]

Highrollerplays

Wiseguy Insider Play

San Fran Giants VS Cincinnati Reds
MLB San Fran Giants +135 (4:07 Eastern start time)

[Mr. IWS]

Platinum Plays

500K C-USA Lock/Month
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -16½

Best Bets
Western Kentucky Hill Toppers -1½
Western Kentucky/Troy Game Over 54
Arizona St/Colorado Game Over 57
Pittsburgh/Tennessee Game Over 43½

Premier Pick
Tennessee Titans +6

[Mr. IWS]

mlb syndicate
2* nyy
1* sf giants

[Mr. IWS]

Totals 4 You

2012 Thursday Night AFC Super Total of the Year
Pittsburgh/Tennessee Under 43½

College Best Bets
Arizona State/Colorado Under 57
Texas-El Paso/Tulsa Over 57½
Western Kentucky/Troy Under 54

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

935 STL / 936 WAS OVER 7.5 double-dime bet

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo

10* Troy

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Raise the Bar 1500♦ Thursday NFL Winner #3 in a Row
Tennessee Titans +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS TO WIN (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Verlander vs Parker
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)

The Tigers are favored here with their ace on the mound, but I think we are getting great value on the home team behind a solid starting pitcher. The Athletics send Jarrod Parker back to the mound for the 5th and deciding game. Parker was 13-8 this year with a 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .248 opponents batting average. At home he was 6-5 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .240 opponents batting average. He started in Game 1 going 6.1 innings allowing 7 hits and 2 earned runs against while striking out 5 and walking 1. He also faced Detroit back in May in Oakland where he went 5.2 innings giving up 2 earned runs. On the mound for Detroit is of course Justin Verlander who is 17-8 this year with a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .217 opponents batting average. On the road his numbers were slightly worse than Parker's home numbers, as he was 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .243 opponents batting average. He has faced Oakland three times this season allowing just 2 earned runs against over 21 innings, including Game 1 where he allowed just 3 hits and 1 earned run over 7 innings. There is no doubt that we can expect a quality start from Verlander, but I expect Parker to be able to give his team a chance at winning. The A's are a stellar 41-15 in their last 56 home games, including 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. They are also 41-17 in their last 58 games following a win, and 7-3 in Parker's last 10 starts overall. Detroit is just 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning record, 0-5 in their last 5 road playoff games, 2-5 in Verlander's last 7 road starts, and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland has taken 4 of their last 5 home games vs Detroit and it feels like they've got something special going on at home. I like Oakland at a nice underdog price to finish off the comeback.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Winning Crew

25 Dime Play Western Kentucky -2

[Mr. IWS]

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Tulsa
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Texas-El Paso (+17 -115)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 7:28:20 PM EDT

UTEP is not a very good football team, but neither is Tulsa. Tulsa has built a good record beating bad teams. UTEP has at least built a bad record losing to quality teams (at least in comparison to Tulsa) and UTEP hasn’t lost a game all year by more than 18 points (at Ole Miss). UTEP has struggled offensively at times this year but they are playing a Tulsa defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. Tulsa shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game but I look for UTEP to score enough points to comfortably stay within the number as they have all year against much better competition.

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies Sports

500* Tennessee +6
500* Arizona St / Colorado Under 57
500* Tulsa / UTEP Under 58
30* UTEP +17
20* Troy +2

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Tulsa -16.5

100* Cardinals -110

50* Reds -120

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Play of the Day by GT Staff

Arizona State at COLORADO +23 at 5:00 PM PT ESPN

This looks like a good dog play as both teams come off a weeks rest and that will favor Colorado as Arizona State has two revenge games coming up with Oregon and UCLA.

COLORADO +23

[Mr. IWS]

Gaming Today’s Consensus Picks by GT Staff

Baseball Playoffs

Cincinnati Reds -115

St. Louis Cardinals EVEN

New York Yankees -150

Oakland Athletics +130

NFL

Tennessee Titans +6

Tennessee Titans/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 43

College Football

Colorado +23

Utep +17

Troy +2

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report

4* Pittsburg/Tenn over 42
3* W. Kentucky/Troy under 54.5
3* Arizona St. -22.5

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Western Kentucky -1 over Troy

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play NY Yankees -155 over Baltimore (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:30 PM EST

Phil Hughes has won 9 of the last 11 games when pitching on a Thursday and he has won 39 of the last 51 home games. Phil Hughes has won 44 of the last 67 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 28 of the last 46 games vs. division opponents.


50* Play Washington +105 over St. Louis (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Detroit -140 over Oakland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Cincinnati -125 over San Francisco (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

TROY +2 -105 over Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are ranked 25th in the nation in rushing, they’re averaging nearly 30 points a game and they’re ranked 39th overall in points allowed. WKU is 11-2 over the past calendar year with their only two losses coming to Alabama and LSU, both of whom were ranked No. 1 at the time the game was played. They have also won eight straight games against conference opponents, including a 41-18 win over these same Trojans last season. We point out their impressive numbers only to establish how this line is skewed. When playing a powder puff schedule, these types of stats are common and that’s the case here. The Hilltoppers schedule has been a very soft one. That works to our advantage as WKU is a one-dimensional offense that runs the ball often but rarely passes. WKU’s skewed defensive numbers are a result of them successfully pounding the ball on the ground against weak opposition and eating clock. The defense is spending less time on the field than most.

Troy is undervalued here. They’re a quality Sun Belt team that averages close to 500 yards of offense per game. The Trojans are 3-2 on the year but all three wins have come on the road, which confirms just how tough they can be. Looking for its first home win, the Trojans are 8-1 against the number in their past nine games after a bye and we’ll gladly play them here against a truly overhyped intruder.

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Oakland A's +131

[Mr. IWS]

NorthCoast


Marquee
Colorado +23


Top Opinions
Pitt -6
WKU Under 54.5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

Today's Totals

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.0 San Francisco at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 11)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 St. Louis at Washington (4 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 11)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

6-Unit Play. #937. Take Baltimore Orioles +1.5, -160 over the New York Yankees (Thursday @ 7:30pm est).

I know it sounds a bit nuts, but in Buck and Joe I trust. Joe Saunders is no stranger to the moment as he pitched a gem against the Rangers and now the midseason pickup is called on again to deliver in a game deciding moment for the Orioles. He has pitching experience against the Yankees when he was with the Angels and now the veteran steps up once again for the O's who lost a tough game to the Yankees with Ibanez hitting two homers in both of his two bats - not bad for a guy who signed for a 1 year and a little over a 1 million dollar contract. With Jeter a bit banged up and Alex Rodriguez struggling at the plate, and this being a must win for the Orioles who went to Arlington and beat the Rangers in a similar matchup, I like Saunders here. In his post-season lifetime, Hughes has above a 5era and I can see the Baltimore offense who was stifled in their last game to step up here with a solid effort and the juice allows us to go ahead and take the plus run-line to have a 1 run handicap just in case. The Orioles are 20-7 of late following a loss, 4-1 of late when Saunders is an underdog and I like the pitcher that was essentially let go by the Diamondbacks to continue on his redemption this year.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner
2* Cardinals -110

[Mr. IWS]

Ocal Sports

(3) Tulsa -17 over Texas El Paso

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

6 POINT TEASER --- Pittsburgh -1 & Under 49.5

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Houston Under 43.5: Was there any doubt which way I would go here. LOL The Titan offense has been bad and it didn't look much better last week with Hasselbeck behind center and I don't think they will be all that much better this week vs a solid Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers have allowed 30+ points in each of their two road games this year, but Tennessee has put up more than 14 points just once this year and last week with Matt in there they could muster just 7 total points vs Minnesota. Knowing their problems at QB and their defensive problems I look for Tennessee to come out and really try and establish the run with Johnson, which should also shorten the game and keep their defense on the sidelines. The Pittsburgh offense has had their problems running the ball this year, but they looked much better last week with Mendenhall back from injury and I expect them to use this week to work on that run game vs a Tennessee defense that has allowed 144 ypg on the ground this year. That should eat plenty of clock. I really expect both teams to play ball control in this one and that should help the game stay in the 30's and not the 40's.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Tulsa/ Utep Over 57.5: This has been an extremely high scoring series off late as these teams have combined for 76.4 ppg in their last 9 meetings, while the last 4 meetings here has produced 70.8 ppg. Now in years past the Miners did have solid offenses, but this year they have struggled, averaging just 17 ppg. I feel that after getting shutout last week they will find a way to put some points on the board vs this weak Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane has allowed 28.3 ppg on the year, but they are really struggling in their last 3 games, allowing 35.3 ppg over that stretch. Tulsa is 5-1 on the year but as you see it is not because of the defense, but more because of an offense that has averaged 459.7 ypg and 42.5 ppg, while at home they have put up 523.7 ypg and 46 ppg. This powerful Tulsa offense will take on a pretty weak UTEP defense that comes in allowing 440.7 ypg and 27 ppg overall, including 490.7 ypg and 31 ppg on the road this year. Im not sure if UTEP will really keep this one close, but I do see them get at least 21 points in this one, while Tulsa should be good for at least 40 points of their own.

Western Kentucky -2 over TROY: WKU is playing very well on both sides of the ball right now as they come in averaging 29.8 ppg, while they come in having allowed just 30 points in their last 2 games. WKU has played a tough schedule so far facing 2 SUC teams on the road and they win one of them (Kentucky in OT). The Hilltoppers came home and demolished a Southern Miss team by 25, before going on the road and beating Arkansas State by 13. Troy did face Miss State at home, but other than than they haven’t really faced anyone. In their last 2 games they faced weak South Alabama and North Texas on the road, but they nearly beat North Texas and were outgained in that game, plus at home earlier they lost to UL Lafayette and in their opener barley beat a very weak UAB team on the road. WKU has played better vs stronger completion, and while Troy is at home and playing with revenge I still feel that this Hilltopper squad is for real and may be the 2nd best team (behind UL-Monroe) in the Sun Belt. Look for the Hilltoppers to take this one.

7 POINT TEASER --- Tulsa -10 & Navy +9

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Navy +2 Over CENTRAL MICHIGAN

TULSA -17 over UTEP

7 POINT TEASER --- Colorado +30 & WKU/ Troy Under 61

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

St Louis -107 over WASHINGTON: Let all the talk and criticism begin after the Nationals have a post season meltdown thanks in part to not having Stephen Strasburg in their. This team really looks flat, while the Cards are once again looking very strong in their push to repeat. The Cards will send out their best starter in Kyle Lohse, who is 17-3 with a 2.87 ERA on the year, including 9-2 with a 3.40 ERA on the road and a 5-1 mark with a 3.60 ERA in day games. He has struggled with Washington, going 1-1 with a 5.47 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but the Nats just aren't hitting the ball well right now, scoring just 3.2 rpg in their last 5 games. Ross Detwiler has pitched well at home, going 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and while he does have a 2.84 ERA in day starts he is just 2-2, while the Nats are just 3-4 in his 7 day starts. He is facing a hot St Louis offense that has averaged 6 rpg in their last 10 games, hitting .274 over that stretch. The Cards clear advantages at the the plate, plus the momentum as well and experience as well. Look for the Cards to close it out here.

3 UNIT PLAY

NY YANKS -150 over Baltimore: (Google News Play)The Yanks have a wave of momentum after last night huge come from behind win and I will ride that momentum with them here. The O's had been 79-0 when taking a lead into the 7th, until Raul Ibanez changed that. Along with momentum the Yanks now have confidence as well. Joe Saunders has really turned it on for the for the O's down the stretch, but he is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in his last 2 starts in this park, plus the Yanks score 5.11 rp/9 and hit .261 vs lefties at home on the year. Phil Hughes has been mediocre at best this year, going 16-13 overall, but he was a very nice 11-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 home starts this year and the O's score just 3.97 rp/9 and hit just .234 on the road vs righties on the year. I look for the Yanks to ride the momentum of last night's win right into the ALCS, by ending this series tonight.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ San Fran Under 7

1 UNIT PLAY

CINCINNATI -135 over San Francisco (Google News Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

Giants (5 UNITS)
Pitt/Tenn Under 43.5 (5 UNITS)
W Kentucky -2 (5 UNITS)
Colorado +23 (3 UNITS)
Cardinals (3 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

NC

Marquee
Colorado +23

Top Opinions
Pitt -6
WKU Under 54.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

Reds

A's RL +1.5 runs

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Essler CFB Side Thu, 10/11/12 - 8:00 PM

dime bet 105 UTEP 17.0 (-110) vs 106 Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Marco D'Angelo | MLB ML - Thursday, Oct 11 2012 4:07PM
ML 936 WAS (+105) bodog vs 935 STL double-dime bet

Analysis: PLAY: WASHINGTON
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence LTS:

3* Detroit-140

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

1000* NFL Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

October 11, 2012
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, 1-3 ATS) evened their record with a win over the Eagles last week following a bye that allowed some injured players to return, and they now look to put a winning streak together vs. the struggling Tennessee Titans (1-4,1-4 ATS) Thursday. This game from LP Field in Nashville, TN will be carries live on NFL Network at 8:20 ET.

The Steelers welcomed back running back Rashard Mendenhall and linebacker James Harrison last week as they both made their 2012 debuts, but not all the news was good as Troy Polamalu reinjured his calf in his first game back and will be out for this contest. Still, Mendenhall provided a spark to what had been a dreadful running game, as he rushed for 81 yards in the 16-14 win over Philadelphia on only 14 carries. Remember that the Steelers intended to return to a power running game this year after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger took so many hits the last couple of years, but they have been unable to do it until now with their mediocre backup running backs. Thus look for Mendenhall's workload to gradually increase and for Roethlisberger to throw fewer passes going forward. That tactic should work just fine here vs. a Tennessee run defense that is ranked 28th in the NFL at 144.2 rushing yards per game. Now Big Ben did complete 21-of-37 passes for 207 yards vs. the Eagles, and those numbers would have been better if not for several dropped passes, and while Pittsburgh would prefer fewer pass attempts this week, it is reassuring to have someone of Roethlisberger's caliber should Mendenhall possibly regress in his second game back.

The Titans are simply a mess, and they were outgained by 166 yards in a 30-7 blowout loss to the Vikings in Minnesota last week, It was hoped that running back Chris Johnson had turned the corner when, out of nowhere, he rushed for 141 yards vs. a great Houston defense two weeks ago, but he then returned to being the plodding runner we have been seeing for nearly two years last week running for a putrid 24 yards on 15 carries. Furthermore, veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck struggled in his first start of the year in place of the injured Jake Locker, completing 26-of-43 passes for only 200 yards (4.7 YPA) and one interception. As if that were not bad enough, the Tennessee defense allowed 433 total yards. The Titan must now go up against a Pittsburgh team that ranks third in the league in passing defense while allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt, so unless Johnson can match his game in Houston two weeks ago, Tennessee should have an extremely difficult time moving the football.

Now granted, the Steelers have not been very reliable as road favorites, going just 10-19 ATS in this role since 2007, and the fact that they want to employ more of a ball control offense does not help that cause. That does play straight into the hands of the 'under' though, which is 8-3 in the last 11 Pittsburgh games as well as 10-4-1 in the last 15 Tennessee games overall.

Pick: UNDER 43.5

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco

10 Dimes
Pittsburgh / Tulsa 6pt Teaser

[Mr. IWS]

Kbhoops

4 units San Fran +117
4 units San Fran UNder 7
4 units Cardinals OVer 8 +105
4 units Yankees OVer 8.5
5 units Tigers -129
4 units Tigers UNder 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

LEE EARNEST
10-3 NFL RUN
Tennessee Titans +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Wellington Syndicate


5* MLB PLAY---NY YANKEES (ML)

5* Thurs NFL--Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron

20,000 Over 43.5 Pitt/Tenn

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

40 dimes Colorodo

[Mr. IWS]

kelso

10 pitt
50 a.s.u.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

NFL:
50 Tennessee

College:
50 Colorado
40 OVER Western Kentucky

Baseball:
50 OVER Yankees
100 UNDER Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Godfather Locks

5k Star pick: yankees ML
1k Star pick: titans

[Mr. IWS]

LEE EARNEST

Tennessee Titans +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers

1* Tulsa Golden Hurricanes -17 over UTEP Miners

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Upset of the Week

Troy

[Mr. IWS]

Power Play Wins

POD

Tulsa -17

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report

4* Pittsburg/Tenn over 42
3* W. Kentucky/Troy under 54.5
3* Arizona St. -22.5

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Arizona State at Colorado (Thursday 10/11 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado +22 (-110)

Colorado has hit rock bottom. Since joining the Pac-12, they own a 3-9 mark. If not for a big upset win at Washington State, this team was staring at a winless season. Arizona State has looked good thus far, suffering just one setback in an out-of-conference tilt at Missouri. I am not going to argue for the merits of Colorado here. They stink. But, the Sun Devils might be thinking that they are on easy street here in Colorado vs. a less than average Buffaloes team. That becomes a stronger likelihood with Oregon on deck. In fact, I think ASU may already be preparing for Oregon. The oddity is that game will also take place on Thursday, so the Sun Devils will not benefit from extra rest here. The objective will be to get the win and get out - utilize minimal energy, rest starters, and stay healthy. The team benefitting from extra rest here is Colorado who comes in after a bye week. They have had two full weeks to prepare - a situation that has been good to them as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five off a bye. Arizona State has not travelled well at just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games. They are also just 2-12 ATS in their last twelve when taking to the road off a road win. The Sun Devilscould get caught here by a rested team on the road. Play on Colorado with the generous points.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

10 A'S

[Mr. IWS]

Lines2win

NCAA tonight. We are now 16-10 (+14.10 Units) overall, in the midst of a 9-5 run. Got nipped by Clemson last week otherwise we would have had a great NCAAF day.

Troy +1.5 (to Win 2 Units) - Troy is a small home dog which is a great spot for them. They are 12th overall in passing yards per game in Division 1 play. Mississippi State had tons of trouble with them as they nearly snagged an upset. West Kentucky has looked good all season, but Troy will give them problems tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook

Colorado 3*

Titans and UTEP 2*'s

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS UNLIMITED
steelers over

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS BANK

MILLIONAIRES CLUB

both pass

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Edwards's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Arizona State at Colorado
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Under (57.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2012 @ 2:17:23 PM EDT

Arizona St. has a stout defense that's ranked fourth in the nation in pass defense and 12th in scoring defense, surrendering just 13.6 points per game against offenses more efficient than the one Colorado will trot out tonight in Boulder. The Sun Devils have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games with combined point totals of 44 in each of those three contests. Give me the 'under.'

[Mr. IWS]

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Tulsa
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Texas-El Paso (+17 -115)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 7:28:20 PM EDT

UTEP is not a very good football team, but neither is Tulsa. Tulsa has built a good record beating bad teams. UTEP has at least built a bad record losing to quality teams (at least in comparison to Tulsa) and UTEP hasn’t lost a game all year by more than 18 points (at Ole Miss). UTEP has struggled offensively at times this year but they are playing a Tulsa defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. Tulsa shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game but I look for UTEP to score enough points to comfortably stay within the number as they have all year against much better competition.

[Mr. IWS]

ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (42.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 9, 2012 @ 5:45:41 PM EDT

PLAY ON: OVER 44 Steeler @ Titans - 8:20 pm ET

The Titans defense has been horrendous this year. They are dead last in PPG allowed giving up 36. They have yet to hold a team under 30 points in their 5 games this season. Their opponents have been rolling up an average of 424 YPG on this sieve of a defense. Don’t expect that to change on Thursday when they face Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. This isn’t the Pittsburgh offense of old where they would grind their opponent into submission with their potent ground game. This team loves to throw the ball. Roethlisberger puts it up nearly 40 times per game. He is averaging 26 completions per game which is 8th in the NFL. Passing extends the game by stopping the clock on incompletions. It also creates more big plays for the offense. They won’t stray from that here with Tennessee giving up an average of 280 YPG passing. Pittsburgh is coming off a low scoring 16-14 win over Philly, however both teams had chances to put more points on the board in that one. Plus, the Eagles have a FAR superior defense to the Titans. The Steelers two road games this year were both high scoring affairs (50 points @ Denver and 65 points @ Oakland) and their defense isn’t as “shut down” as it used to be. Their getting old and injuries have crept up again with safety Troy Palomalu out and Lamar Woodley highly questionable. The Titans have struggled offensively, however their two home games were both very high scoring (47 points vs New England & 85 points vs Detroit). Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck took over last week for an injured Jake Locker and will start again on Thursday. He threw it 48 times for 215 yards in Minnesota. While Tennessee only put up 7 points in that game, their yardage total says they would normally get to about 17 points in that situation. They probably won’t do much on the ground in this game against Pitt, so look for Hasselbeck to heave it a lot which favors the over. The Titans are 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game at just 18. They are 11th in the NFL in pass attempts per game at 38. Thus we are expecting close to 80 pass attempts on Thursday night. The Steelers will put up big numbers just as everyone has on Tennessee. We think the Titans will move the ball and score more than they normally would in this one. It doesn’t look like weather will be a factor and this game will go OVER the Total.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Thursday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (43.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 4:27:26 PM EDT

Much of the focus on Tennessee's disappointing season has come on its offense where Chris Johnson continues to be in a funk averaging an embarrassing 2.9 yards per carry and Matt Hasselbeck looks washed up.

What's not being discussed as much is how bad and soft the Titans' defense has become since Jeff Fisher left. The Titans are giving up the most points in the NFL, an average of 36.2 points per game. They rank 29th in yards allowed. The Titans don't generate much of a pass rush, their best linebacker is playing at less than 100 percent and they could have the worst starting safeties in the league.

The Steelers have the weapons to take full advantage especially with a now healthy Rashard Mendenhall. He gives the Steelers a legitimate back and sets up Ben Roethlisberger's play-action passes. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's most feared deep threats, is in line for a big game.

I expect the Titans to put up their share of points, too. This is a quick turnaround for Pittsburgh's aging defense, which has seven starters in their 30s and greatly misses defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior. The Steelers' defense has looked slow this season. They haven't generated much of a pass rush and have shown leaks against the run. Not helping matters for the Steelers is that LaMarr Woodley, perhaps their most dangerous pass rusher, and star safety Troy Polamalu are both out.

The Titans should get a boost with Kenny Britt, their most talented wideout by far, expected to see his most extensive action.

[Mr. IWS]

Ed Meyer's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (43.0 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 6:50:54 PM EDT

The Titans’ offense looked terrible in Minnesota. Here they are a significant dog and they have a bad defense. Munchak and the Titans’ brass should know that 20 points is not going to win this one. After last weeks debacle, he is going to have to be aggressive on offense if they are going to have a chance against the Steelers and their potent passing game.
Tennessee is 11-0 OU when hosting an AFC team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date as long as that opponent is not undefeated. The SDQL text is:
team=Titans and H and oS(completions)/oS(passes)>0.65 and C and o:WP<100
Also, Tennessee is 7-0 OU (15.5 ppg) during October the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road, 7-0 OU (+10.1 ppg) during October at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35 and 8-0 OU (+8.6 ppg) recently when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. This is all evidence that the Titans can’t waste a single possession. They have to open up the playbook and perhaps try a little trickery.
The Steelers completion percentage last week was down and this is a sign to take the OVER here. Pittsburgh is 10-0 OU as a favorite the week after a game in which they threw for less than 225 yards and their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Steelers and F and NB and tA(p:CP)*1.0-p:CP*1.0>10 and p:PY<225 and season>=2007
Note that the Steelers have gone over the total by an average of 13.8 ppg in this spot and each of their last six have gone over by more than a TD. In fact, this trend was active when these two met last season. Pittsburgh won 38-17.
In fact, the league as a whole is 15-0 OU (+10.1 ppg) during October as a favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.
We’ll finish with a very unsophisticated trend. The Steelers are 9-0 OU (+11.3 ppg) during October on the road after a straight up win at home.
Get in as soon as you can to avoid the push at scores like 24-20 and 27-17.
MTi’s FORECAST: Pittsburgh 30 TENNESSEE 24

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Pritchard's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Tulsa
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (57.0 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2Flatest-promo%2F%3Fcmpid%3D1560_1308)
Posted on: October 11, 2012 @ 12:10:08 AM EDT

Happy Thursday, let's make some money. I have one play one time. Before you BET it, make sure you GET it. I am talking about being selective and finding real value. It's not how many you play it is how many you win. UTEP is at Tulsa. I like the OVER. See the cashier.

[Mr. IWS]

Rainman

3* W. KENTUCKY -1.5
1* UNDER w.ken/troy 55
1* ARIZONA ST. -22
1* TENNESSEE +6