10-17-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Baseball

9* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cardinals at 4:07 ET.

The Giants almost HAD to win Game 2 of the NLCS, after losing Game 1, 6-4. San Francisco entered Game 2 with an 0-3 postseason home record this year, getting outscored 20-6. However, the Giants DID come through Monday night, besting the Cards and postseason ‘stud’ Chris Carpenter, 7-1. Carpenter allowed five runs (just two earned) in four innings and left with a 5-1 deficit while Ryan Vogelsong allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings. The series now shifts to St Louis for the next three games. Matt Cain (16-5 with a 2.79 ERA / team 21-11 in his starts) squares off against Kyle Lohse (16-3 with a 2.86 ERA / team 21-12 in his starts). However, Lohse has had the better of it this postseason , beating the Braves 6-3 in the wild card game and allowing just two hits and one ER over seven innings of Game 4 of the NLDS (Cards would lose 2-1, on Werth’s walkoff HR in the 9th). He has a 2.13 postseason ERA in two starts while Cain hasn’t gotten out of the 6th inning in either of his starts (a loss and a win). He’s allowed 11 hits and six ERs over 10.2 innings this postseason (5.06 ERA) and has struggled against the Cardinals this regular season. Cain is 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two starts, leaving him 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts vs St Louis (Giants are 3-5). However, there is some good news with Cain starting this game on five days’ rest. When starting on five days' rest this season, Cain lost only once in 12 outings while posting a 2.42 ERA. That said, Lohse led the Cardinals in starts and innings during the regular season and was 8-1 in 16 home starts (team was 11-5) with a 2.33 ERA. National League teams are 3-10 at home during this postseason and I just DON’T see that trend continuing with Lohse on the mound against Cain, who hasn’t seemed quite ‘right’ in his first two postseason starts of 2012.

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET.

Joe Girardi sat A-Rod and Swisher in Game 3, replacing them with Chavez and Gardner. So what happens? That duo goes a combined 0-7 while Cano (1-of-4 and now hitting .083 in the postseason) and Granderson (0-3 & now batting .103) continued their postseason slumps, as well. Verlander came within two outs of pitching back-to-back shutouts for the Tigers, allowing a solo HR in the 9th, before Phil Coke got the two-out save (no Valverde to be seen). The Yankees are now batting .158 in this series (.200 in the postseason) and have scored only in the 9th inning in this series (a four-run 9th in Game 1 and last night’s solo HR in the 9th), over 31 innings. This coming after the Yankees plating just 16 runs (five of which came in a five-run 9th in Game 1) in getting past the Orioles in five games in the ALDS. Meanwhile, the Tigers are conducting a pitching clinic this postseason (save Valverde), as the solo HR allowed in the 9th by Verlander ended a 30.1-inning scoreless stretch by Detroit starters (it also ended a 37.2-inning stretch without an earned run allowed). Will anything change here in Game 4? Max Scherzer followed last year’s 15-9 (4.43 ERA) season by going 16-7 (3.74 ERA) in 2012 (231 Ks were second-most to Verlander). He’s pitched just once in the postseason allowing a single unearned run over 5.1 innings (three hits) of Game 4 of Detroit’s ALDS Game 4 vs the A’s. He left that game with a 2-1 lead and up 3-1 in the 9th, the Tigers lost 4-3, when Valverde ‘IMPLODED’ (hasn’t been seen since). Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in five games (four starts) against New York, including two in the 2011 ALDS. Clearly, if the Yanks NEVER hit, this series is over tonight. However, it's been 36 postseason series since New York has been swept, dating to the 1980 ALCS against Kansas City. With CC Sabathia on the mound in Game 4, I believe the Yankees are worth a shot. I realize he wasn't very effective in three outings (two starts) against the Tigers in last year's division series, surrendering six runs and eight walks in 8.2 innings but hat said, he’s been ‘MONEY’ in the postseason. He’s 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) since moving to New York in 2009. I’m backing the “Big Fella!”

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

10* Wednesday Afternoon O/U BEST BET!

ISt. Louis and SF to finish Under the total. Each team enters on an 'over' streak. The Cards have seen three straight games top the total, dating back to the final game in the Washington series. Meanwhile, the Giants have seen four straight games finish above the number, dating back to their series in Cincinnati. I expect that t change this afternoon and pitching to steal the spotlight.

Lohse was 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA at home this season. The UNDER was 10-6 in his 16 starts here. He's only made one start against the Giants the past few years. In that 4/10/11 game, he allowed just one run and only five hits, through eight complete innings. He didn't walk a single batter either.

At 17-6 with a 2.90 ERA and having started the All Star game, Cain is clearly one of the best in the game. Admittedly, he didn't pitch well his last time here. However, he's had previous success against the Cards and I expect him to pitch well this afternoon. Note that he was 7-0 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in day games this season.

I expect a pitcher's duel and feel the final score has a better chance of finishing with less than seven runs than it does of finishing with more than seven.