10-18-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.






Note:




ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer | NFL Side

Triple-Dime Bet SFX -7.0 (-110) vs 303 SEA
Analysis: I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Thursday night (http://www.capperslounge.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fx-apple-data-detectors%3A%2F%2F2). While most of the NFL was surprised with the way SFO was dominated this past Sunday, we were not. We had the Giants on these pages. I suspect Jim Harbaugh had little trouble getting his team's attention following the severe butt-kicking. Harbaugh has had no trouble refocusing the troops off a SU loss since he's been roaming the sideline. The 49ers have not lost back-to-back games since Harbaugh took over as HC. In fact, they have not even allowed an offensive TD following a defeat. They head into Thursday on a 7-0, 100% ATS run off an upset SU loss, winning those seven games by an average score of 23-11. With Harbaugh, the Niners are 10-2 ATS in all home games, outscoring the opposition by an average of 27-14. Seattle is off the big win over New England. The Seahawks were outgained 475-368 and New England left a lot of chances to put the game away on the table, including coming away with only 3 points on three different chances in the red zone. And just two of Seattle's final 12 possessions went for more than 27 yards. As much as I like Seattle QB Russell Wilson, I believe the rookie is in for a long evening against an angry 49er defense on Thursday night (http://www.capperslounge.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fx-apple-data-detectors%3A%2F%2F4). SFO will look to stuff the run - which means Wilson will have to produce plays with his arm. Seattle is averaging just 169.7 yards passing per game...it's not what they want to have to do. I believe this is one of those "perfect storm" situations with SFO off an embarrasing home loss and young Seattle off a fortunate win over mighty New England...with a short week to prep thrown in the mix. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS within the division and they have covered just 5 of their last 21 against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes. Meanwhile, to go along with the 7-0 and 10-2 ATS spots mentioned above, the 49ers are on a 19-6-2 (http://www.capperslounge.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fx-apple-data-detectors%3A%2F%2F7)ATS run off a SU loss, overall. I'm laying the points with San Francisco on Thursday.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

9* C-USA Showdown is on the Hou Cougars at 8:00 ET.

The Houston Cougars went 13-1 last season (final ranking of 18 in the AP poll) but began the 2012 season by losing 30-13 at home to Texas State, a five-TD underdog playing its first game at the FBS level. The game was NO fluke, as Houston was outgained 444-to-326 in yards and beaten in FDs as well (23-to-15). Up next was the high-flying Bulldogs of La Tech and the Cougars lost a tight one, 56-49. Then came a trip to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA and Houston was embarrassed, 37-6. Yes, head coach Kevin Sumlin moved on to the Texas A&M job and Keenum’s eligibility was FINALLY up but none of the preseason predictions expected Houston to start as poorly as it did. QB David Piland started for the majority of the 2010 season after Keenum went down with an injury and passed for 2,641 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. Piland showed promise in the team's high-scoring loss to La Tech, throwing for 580 yards and four TDs, as Houston actually outgained the Bulldogs, 693-to-598 in yards. However, Piland then threw five INTs vs UCLA. The Cougars finally ‘righted the ship’ with a 35-14 win over Rice at Reliant Stadium in the team’s fourth game. Two more wins have followed, 44-21 (North Texas) and 39-17 (UAB), both at home. Piland has completed 69.5% in the team's three-game winning streak, averaging 348.0 YPG through the air with five TDs and just one INT (in 128 attempts). RB Sims is averaging 167.0 YPG (on 7.1 YPC) in the team's winning streak, running for four TDs. The Cougars now aim for a fourth straight win and to get over .500 for the first time in 2012. Head coach Tony Levine seems to finally have settled into his position with three wins by an average of22.0 PPG, as the Cougars are 2-0 in C-USA’s West division (Tulsa is already 4-0). SMU also began its season in a non-spectacular fashion, as the Mustangs opened 1-3 with their only win coming over Stephen F. Austin of the FCS prior to league play. The Mustangs shut out Texas-El Paso 17-0 in their C-USA opener, but ‘the wheels came off’ when they were upset 27-26 by the previously winless Tulane Green Wave last Saturday. Tulane had lost 15 in a row entering that contest (the longest active one in nation) but took a 20-6 led at the half. SMU rallied to take a 26-20 lead but Tulane scored with 35 seconds left on a 16-yard TD pass with just 35 seconds to go. SMU outgained Tulane 471-to-342 in yards (29-13 in FDs), making the loss even more rustrating. June Jones went 1-11 in his first season in Dallas (2008) but in 2009, led the Mustangs to an 8-5 season and the school’s first bowl appearance since 1984, a 45-10 Hawaii Bowl victory over Nevada. SMU went ‘bowling’ in each of the last two seasons as well (lost to Army but beat Pittsburgh last year), so this year’s 1-5 start is quite a disappointment. Garrett Gilbert couldn’t cut it at Texas and the QB transfer has completed 49.55 with seven TDs and 11 INTS here for SMU. RB Zach Line (604 yards on 4.7 YPC) is a solid player but the defense is very inconsistent from week to week. SMU allowed 59 points to Baylor and 48 to Texas A&M, but limited TCU to 24 points and held UTEP scoreless. SMU has to be ‘dying’ to get back on the field after losing to Tulane and beating Houston would be HUGE but the Mustangs have lost SIX in a row to the Cougars, 37-7, 45-20, 38-15, 44-38, 38-28 and 37-27. The Cougars may yet contend in C-USA this year and for that to happen, a win here is a MUST. I say Houston gets it with “room to spare!”

9* NLCS Game 4 Showdown is on the StL Cardinals at 8:05 ET.

Carlos Beltran left Game 3 with a left knee strain suffered while running out a double-play ball in the first inning but the Cards just seem to “find a way.” He was replaced by rookie Matt Carpenter, who would hit a two-run HR in his first at bat of the game, giving St Louis a 2-1 lead. The Giants would fail to convert on more than a few opportunities the rest of the way (0-for-7 with RISP) and then trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the 7th, had to wait out a 3 1/2 hour rain delay. When the teams returned to the field, St Louis reliever Jason Motte overwhelmed the San Francisco batters, needing just 19 pitches to record a two-inning save. The victory gives St Louis a 2-1 lead in the series and one could hardly be blamed for feeling like it’s deja vu all over again. This is the 5th time the Cards have played a best-of-seven series since 2006 and in all of them, they've split the first two games and then won Game 3 with each Game 3 win leading the Cards to a series win. The Elias Sports Bureau checks in with this stat. The winner of Game 3 in a best-of-seven series that was tied 1-1 has gone on to win 72.3 percent of those series in MLB postseason history. The Game 4 pitching matchup features Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright. Giants manager Bruce Bochy is opting for Lincecum as the Game 4 starter with Barry Zito going in Friday's Game 5, as Madison Bumgarner (who has been just AWFUL in two postseason starts in 2012), is being bumped for now. Bochy is hoping that Lincecum, a two-time NL Cy Young winner, can build on his recent success out of the bullpen this postseason (three appearances, lasting 8.1 innings with one ER run allowed for a 1.08 ERA with a 9-1 KW ratio), after he struggled through his worst season in the majors, losing 15 games and posting a 5.18 ERA,. Lincecum finished 10-15 in 33 starts (team was 14-19 and minus-$850 vs the moneyline) and hardly pitched well in his final two regular season starts of 2012, lasting 10 innings while allowing 11 ERs (9.90 ERA). Lincecum’s last start was way back on Sep 30 and I want NO part of him here. Adam Wainwright was 19-8 and 20-11 in 2009 and 2010, respectively but missed all of last season (while the Cards were winning the World Series), recovering from elbow reconstruction surgery. Wainwright had trouble early in the season but just after the All Star break went 6-0 over a seven-start stretch (from July 24-Aug 26) while posting a 1.80 ERA (team was 6-10). He slumped after that, losing three in a row (8.56 ERA) but finished strong, going 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA over his final three starts (team was 3-0). Wainwright was very good in Game 1 vs Washington, allowing six hits and one ER over 5.2 innings with 10 Ks, becoming the first Cardinal to strike out 10 in a playoff game since Bob Gibson in 1968. However, his effort was wasted when the Nats got a two-out, two-run single in the 8th to pull out the 3-2 win. He then ‘laid an egg’ in Game 5, lasting just 2.1 innings while allowing seven hits and six ERs (he did have five Ks among his seven outs, though). However, he was ‘bailed out’ by the Cards’ remarkable Game 5 comeback in that contest, when St Louis finished off the Nats with a four-run 9th in a 9-7 win. It’s time for redemption in this contest for Wainwright and I see no reason to think he WON’T pitch well. After all, entering his last outing, hWainwright has made 11 postseason appearances (just two starts), allowing just two ERs over 23.1 innings for an 0.77 ERA. That’s the Wainwright I expect will show up here in Game 4. Expect the Cards to take a 3-1 lead in the series with a win.


9* Club-80 Play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

The 49ers opened the season with an impressive 30-22 Week 1 win at Green Bay. A solid 27-19 win over the Lions followed in Week 2 and last year’s NFC runners-up were quickly being crowned the NFC’s, if not the NFL’s, best team. Then came a ‘crash’ in Week 3 at Minnesota (surprising 24-13 loss) which most only called a ‘bump in the road.’ That was confirmed when the 49ers won 34-0 at the Jets and 45-3 at home vs the Bills (49ers set a team record with 641 total yards, becoming the first team in NFL history to run and pass for 300-plus yards in a single game). However, the Giants came to town last Sunday in a HUGE revenge game for the 49ers, who had lost the NFC championship game to New York 20-17 in OT, last January. The 49ers were NEVER in the game, as the Giants controlled every aspect of it and now real questions are being raised about whether Alex Smith is truly capable of leading this team into the Super Bowl. Smith looked AWFUL, throwing three INTs, after having just one in 137 attempts through the team's 4-1 start, while throwing eight TDs. He was also sacked SIX times and the team's excellent running game accounted for only 80 yards (it wasn’t ALL Smith’s fault!). The 49ers have little time to think too much about Sunday’s loss, as the 4-2 Seahawks visit San Francisco for a first-place showdown (Cards are also 4-2 in the NFC West). The Seahawks come in off Sunday’s 24-23 comeback win at home vs the Pats. Seattle was outgained 475-to-368 in yards by New England (26-17 in FDs) and trailed with just 7 1/2 minutes left 23-10, but somehow pulled out the win (46-yard TD pass was the game-winners with 1:18 left). The 49ers were 13-3 while winning the NFC West last year (no other team had a winning record), so San Francisco was an easy preseason pick to repeat as division champs. However, it might not be as easy as some predicted, as San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona are 4-2 with St. Louis at 3-3. The 49ers' next three games are against those division foes, starting Thursday with the Seahawks. Seattle’s 368 yards last week were a season-high and rookie QB Russell Wilson went 16 of 27 for 293 yards, throwing two of his three TDs in the final 7:31. He connected with Sydney Rice for the 46-yard winner with 1:18 to play. Seattle’s defense was No. 1 entering last week but New England’s 475 yards dropped them from the top spot to fourth (294.7 YPG). Residing at No. 1 is San Francisco, allowing 275.8 YPG. The Bears are allowing the NFL’s fewest points (14.2) with Seattle just behind them at 15.5 and the 49ers third at 15.7. Smith’s taking a lot of heat right now but as I noted, last week’s loss wasn’t ONLY his fault. He’s 7-1 in his past eight starts against NFC West teams, giving him has a vast experience edge over Wilson. The 49ers will be shooting for a fourth straight win over the Seahawks at Candlestick, having outscored Seattle 96-48 over that stretch. Meanwhile, the 49ers haven't dropped consecutive games since December 16-26, 2010, which pre-dates Harbaugh’s arrival at the beginning of 2011. I mentioned that the 49ers lost just three games last year but I’ll add here that they followed each loss by winning and covering their very next game. Throw in the team's 34-0 win at the Jets in Week 4 of this year (coming off a Week 3 loss at Minnesota) and under Harbaugh, the 49ers are now 4-0 SU and ATS after a SU loss, outscoring opponents by a combined93-11! As for the Seahawks under Pete Carroll (since the beginning of 2010), coming off an upset win and playing on the road the next game, the Seahawks are just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS. Combining San Francisco’s4-0 ATS mark off a SU loss under Harbaugh with Seattle's 4-1-1 “go-against” ATS mark under Carroll when playing on the road off an upset win and one gets an 8-1-1 ATS mark, or 89% ATS record!. Let’s roll with that and lay the points with the 49ers.

8* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 4:05 ET.

Joe Girardi sat A-Rod and Swisher in Game 3, replacing them with Chavez and Gardner. So what happens? That duo goes a combined 0-7 while Cano (1-of-4 and now hitting .083 in the postseason) and Granderson (0-3 & now batting .103) continued their postseason slumps, as well. Verlander came within two outs of pitching back-to-back shutouts for the Tigers, allowing a solo HR in the 9th, before Phil Coke got the two-out save (no Valverde to be seen). The Yankees are now batting .158 in this series (.200 in the postseason) and have scored only in the 9th inning in this series (a four-run 9th in Game 1 and last night’s solo HR in the 9th), over 31 innings. This coming after the Yankees plating just 16 runs (five of which came in a five-run 9th in Game 1) in getting past the Orioles in five games in the ALDS. Meanwhile, the Tigers are conducting a pitching clinic this postseason (save Valverde), as the solo HR allowed in the 9th by Verlander ended a 30.1-inning scoreless stretch by Detroit starters (it also ended a 37.2-inning stretch without an earned run allowed). Will anything change here in Game 4? Max Scherzer followed last year’s 15-9 (4.43 ERA) season by going 16-7 (3.74 ERA) in 2012 (231 Ks were second-most to Verlander). He’s pitched just once in the postseason allowing a single unearned run over 5.1 innings (three hits) of Game 4 of Detroit’s ALDS Game 4 vs the A’s. He left that game with a 2-1 lead and up 3-1 in the 9th, the Tigers lost 4-3, when Valverde ‘IMPLODED’ (hasn’t been seen since). Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in five games (four starts) against New York, including two in the 2011 ALDS. Clearly, if the Yanks NEVER hit, this series is over tonight. However, it's been 36postseason series since New York has been swept, dating to the 1980 ALCS against Kansas City. With CC Sabathia on the mound in Game 4, I believe the Yankees are worth a shot. I realize he wasn't very effective in three outings (two starts) against the Tigers in last year's division series, surrendering six runs and eight walks in 8.2 innings but hat said, he’s been ‘MONEY’ in the postseason. He’s 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) since moving to New York in 2009. I’m backing the “Big Fella!”

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Millionaires Arizona State

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Florida St -19
Oregon St -10
K State +3
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N Illinois -15.5
Alabama -20
Ohio St -18
South Florida +7
Tulsa -19.5
Western Kentucky -3

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

October 18, 2012 - 4:00 PM MLB NY Yankees vs. Detroit **82% RECORD ON THE LINE** Burns' EARLY Thursday Afternoon O/U ANNIHILATOR! ~ NY/DET r (http://www.capperslounge.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cappersmall.com%2Fforum s%2Fredirect-to%2F%3Fredirect%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.bookmake r.eu%252Flatest-promo%252F%253Fcmpid%253D1560_1308) @ Over 6.5 -125

October 18, 2012 - 8:00 PM NCAAF Houston vs. Southern Methodist **78% YTD** Burns' *10* EARLY THURSDAY NCAA BEST BET! **SPECIAL LIMITED TIME OFFER!** @ 5.5 -107 Southern Methodist

October 18, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL Seattle vs. San Francisco **100% PERFECT THIS YEAR!** Burns' *10* THURSDAY NIGHT SUPER PLAY! **LIMITED TIME OFFER, NEED TO ACT IMMEDIATELY!** @ -7 -110 San Francisco

October 18, 2012 - 9:00 PM NCAAF Oregon vs. Arizona State **LIMITED TIME EXTREME OFFER** Burns' *10* Thursday Night MAIN EVENT! ~ YOU'LL NEED TO MOVE FAST! @ -7.5 -110 Oregon