Strikeforce January 12th

[poopoo333]

Strikeforce on Jan. 12: Melendez-Healy, Rockhold-Larkin, Marquardt-Saffiedine title fights (http://mmajunkie.com/news/31510/strikeforce-on-jan-12-melendez-healy-rockhold-larkin-marquardt-saffiedine-title-fights.mma)
Daniel Cormier vs Dion Staring.. .LOL!

[poopoo333]

Strikeforce: Home of the Mismatches.

[SPX]

Marquardt-Saff should be interesting. Hopefully we'll get Marq at decent odds.

[poopoo333]

Report: Ronday Rousey set to join UFC, Strikeforce to hold last event in January


OMG!!!

[SPX]

Dude, this requires its own thread!

[Mr. IWS]

Will they even put a line out for that cormier fight?

[poopoo333]

-2500 probably

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/5974.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

I think Rockhold is going to win for sure. Larkin has some flashy striking but Rockhold is better. Rockhold can also grapple, Larkin can't...he sucks. Surprised Rockhold isn't like -575

[SPX]

Bulz. Not touching that shit.

[poopoo333]

Bulz. Not touching that shit.

I'm going to parlay Rockhold and Cormier. It will probably bring Rockhold's -450 down to -449.

[poopoo333]

Luke Rockhold vs Lorenz Larkin - Middleweight 5 rounds - Strikeforce propositions


Sat 1/12

2003 Larkin/ Rockhold goes 5 round distance

-165





10:00PM

2004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

+125

[poopoo333]

I think Rockhold gets the finish here. He will probably sub Larkin.

[poopoo333]

"Mike Kyle just confirmed that he will fight Gegard Mousasi on the final Strikeforce show in January"

....

[poopoo333]

Lots of shuffling/injuries already but a good amount of fights were added yesterday:



Nate Marquardt (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/nate-marquardt) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/tarec-saffiedine)
Daniel Cormier (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/daniel-cormier) vs. Dion Staring (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/dion-staring)
Gegard Mousasi (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/gegard-mousasi) vs. Mike Kyle (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/mike-kyle)
Ryan Couture (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/ryan-couture) vs. KJ Noons (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/kj-noons)
Pat Healy (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/pat-healy) vs. Jorge Masvidal (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/jorge-masvidal)*
Josh Barnett (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/josh-barnett) vs. Nandor Guelmino (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/nandor-guelmino)*
Roger Gracie (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/roger-gracie) vs. Anthony Smith (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/anthony-smith)*
Lorenz Larkin (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/lorenz-larkin) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/ronaldo-souza)
Tim Kennedy (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/tim-kennedy) vs. Trevor Smith (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/trevor-smith)
Michael Bravo (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/michael-bravo) vs. Estevan Payan (http://mmajunkie.com/fighters/estevan-payan)

[poopoo333]

Cormier, Barnett, Gracie, Jacare, Kennedy. All parlay material. Jacare is going to steamroll Larkin.

[Mr. IWS]

I kinda like Mike Kyle for some odd reason.

[poopoo333]

I kinda like Mike Kyle for some odd reason.

Probably because Mousasi is overrated.

[MMA_scientist]

Mousasi is can. That is a great card for betting and watching. I will miss Strikeforce mismatches.

[SPX]

I kinda like Mike Kyle for some odd reason.

Like him as in, want to take him out? Show him a good time?

[SPX]

Mousasi is can. That is a great card for betting and watching. I will miss Strikeforce mismatches.

Did you just say, "Mousasi is a can?" WTF?

[SPX]

This does look like a pretty good card, though. Will watch.

Strikeforce was awesome back in the day when they were still trying really hard. But Fedor had to come and fuck that shit up. He's straight up a fucking ORG KILLER, man! If Fedor fights in your shit, you might as well just go ahead and begin the bankruptcy procedings.

[trotterz]

I'm with SPX, Mousasi is far from beeing a can. IMO he is going to walk through Kyle

[Mr. IWS]

Like him as in, want to take him out? Show him a good time?

I am a fan, I just have this feeling he is gonna knock Moosassy the fuck out.

I will put none of my hard earned guap on it though.

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

If Fedor fights in your shit, you might as well just go ahead and begin the bankruptcy procedings.

LMAO

[Mr. IWS]

I'm with SPX, Mousasi is far from beeing a can. IMO he is going to walk through Kyle

I always liked you trotterz, but now................

::cop::

Kyle via upkick.

[SPX]

I'm with SPX, Mousasi is far from beeing a can. IMO he is going to walk through Kyle


I am a fan, I just have this feeling he is gonna knock Moosassy the fuck out.

I will put none of my hard earned guap on it though.

::handshake::


I could see Kyle landing a haymaker that puts Mousasi's lights out, but I think Mousasi will win a pretty clear cut decision.

I will say that sometimes Mousasi fights like he doesn't give a fuck, though. I'm still pissed about his performance against King Mo.

[Mr. IWS]

I will say that sometimes Mousasi fights like he doesn't give a fuck, though. I'm still pissed about his performance against King Mo.

Thats kinda where Im at with it. I can see it being one of those boring fights where your waiting for Mousasi to just explode and finish Kyle and then the next thing you know, the fight is over and he never does anything offensively and loses a decision.

[SPX]

It could happen, but I wouldn't expect it.

Mike Kyle is no Petras Markevičius.

[trotterz]

I am a fan, I just have this feeling he is gonna knock Moosassy the fuck out.

I will put none of my hard earned guap on it though.

::handshake::

It defenetely could happen, but mousasi can take a punch. I can't even remember him being wobbled in a fight, even in his K1 fights. Actually I think that if there is a KO in this fight, it will be the other way around.

[Mr. IWS]

I also love the kermit the frog voice Moosassy does too.

[edman5555]

Thats kinda where Im at with it. I can see it being one of those boring fights where your waiting for Mousasi to just explode and finish Kyle and then the next thing you know, the fight is over and he never does anything offensively and loses a decision.

Yeah moo-sassi is definetly one of those fighters that is somewhat unmotivated. Roy nelson-esque if you will. I remember watching an interview with him where he stated that he wasnt even training with a camp for one of his fights.

[poopoo333]

MAIN EVENT:
Nate Marquardt vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Daniel Cormier vs. Dion Staring
Josh Barnett vs. Nandor Guelmino
Gegard Mousasi vs. Mike Kyle
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Ed Herman (coming over from the UFC)
Pat Healy vs. opponent to be determined
Roger Gracie vs. Anthony Smith
Tim Kennedy vs. Trevor Smith
KJ Noons vs. Ryan Couture
Jorge Gurgel vs. Adriano Martins
Estavan Payan vs. Michael Bravo

[poopoo333]

All in on Cormier/Barnett/Gracie/Kennedy/Jacare parlay?

[Luke]

All in on "opponent to be determined"

[poopoo333]

Anybody not like Marquardt over Saff?

[SPX]

*crickets*

[Ludo]

I don't see any reason to believe Tarec can get past Marquardt. That's not to say it won't be a competitive fight, but nothing through time has given Me a reason to doubt that Marquardt can't hang with someone of Saffeidine's skillset.

[poopoo333]

Yeah. Saffiedine is a good technical striker and has good TDD but I don't think he is good enough to fend off and out point Marquardt in a 5 round fight. Marquardt will have my bet at -250 for sure...hoping his line isn't retarded

[SPX]

Line predictions?

[poopoo333]

After Marquardt's last performance and Saff's last two..I would probably say Marquardt opens -265 to -285 range

[SPX]

I don't think it will be that high. At least I hope not.

I'm actually not sure I'd take him above -200.

[poopoo333]

So I just watched some film and although I already figured this...Barnett and Cormier are locks. The guy Barnett is fighting sucks soooo bad.

[poopoo333]

Can we get some lines for this damn card? FUCK

[edman5555]

So I just watched some film and although I already figured this...Barnett and Cormier are locks. The guy Barnett is fighting sucks soooo bad.

What about the guy Cormier is fighting. He's fought mostly cans but has beaten an handful of guys with decent records. I guess Corm should kill him but I do think Cormiers hype is through the roof. A bit too much if you ask me. He may be the next ultimate badass but I think he probably has a way to go. I'm probably wrong about that. Either way they will both be insane favorites. Parlay for value.

[poopoo333]

Cormier will win. This is a squash match. Cormier has solid striking and amazing wrestling. He just manhandled Josh Barnett, how is he going to lose to some journeyman?

I plan on betting:

Roger Gracie, Josh Barnett, Daniel Cormier parlay.

Tim Kennedy/Jacare parlay.

Nate Marquardt straight if it's -275 or better.

[edman5555]

I think Souza over Herman is probably a good idea. Herman isn't that bad though.

Kyle/Mousasi we talked about already. Tough one to call because Kyle is dangerous and Gay guy is somewhat flaky.

I just glanced over Adriano Martins record and he looks pretty good. He is fighting Jorge Gurgel. Martins beat Ronnys Torres in 2010. He lost a majority dec to that Trinaldo guy with the nasty standup IIRC that fought Tibau. I guess this would be more of a bet against Gurgel than anything. I really know nothing about either fighter.

Payan has a better looking record than Bravo..

I don't know what to expect from Conor Huen and Coutures son. Coutures son dominated Conor Huen in the grappling department and Huen was almost able to outgrapple Noons for the decision win. That said, Noons is the best striker Couture has ever had to deal with and he has decent takedown defense. Who knows what happens.

I think Marqy marquardt will beat Saff but I don't really know. They both have great takedown defense and good striking. I think the power edge on the feet has to go to Marquardt. Saff might be able to outpoint him and keep it standing, who knows maybe get the knockout. Marquardts only been knocked out once in over 40 fights though. I don't know, Saff generally looks the same in all the fights I have seen.. Defends the takedown and outpoints his opponent. He does look good everytime though and he gets the "W".

Gracie will probably tap that guy out. He got headbutt KO'd by Lawal and he's already beaten Keith Jardine. I know beating Jardine isn't amazing but it was only his sixth fight ever. Two of those six fights were in 2006 and 2008. He didn't really compete consistently until 2010. Starting in 2010 thats 4 fights and a win over Jardine. I know, he isn't really that great.

[edman5555]

I was just looking over Mike Kyles record and his tko wins are over guys with somewhat shitty records with the exception of one tko win over Cavalcante. I read the pbp of that fight and here is an excerpt from it: Feijao is visibly winded and looks like he is out of shape. He is flat footed and gets clobbered with a big right hand. He falls to his back and Kyle pounces on him. That is Kyles best win via tko.

His other tko wins have records such as: 0 and 2, 6 and 4, 6 and 10, and lastly 0 and 2 again. He seems like he is pretty decent and has some power and explosiveness in his hands. Dangerous combo of course.

Gegard has never been knocked out in MMA over the course of 37 fights, and 8 kickboxing matches. Seems like a pretty solid bet to me. See what the odds are.

[edman5555]

Trevor Smith is fighting Tim Kennedy. He looks like he is pretty good at subbing people. 9 wins by submission. The last guy he fought was a black belt in BJJ and he choked him out. I guess if Souza couldnt tap him out this guy wont but ya never know.

[edman5555]

I have a feeling the odds for this thing are going to be super shitty.

[edman5555]

One thing I love about Strikeforce is they have a much smaller roster so there are a lot more mismatches. This makes it so much easier to pick.

Edman^

[edman5555]

Got some more info on Adriano Martins BJJ background:

2x World Champion (2003 blue, 2004 open weight – purple)
Dumau Cup Champion (2008)
World Cup Silver Medallist (2005 light weights absolute – brown – CBJJO)
World Bronze Medallist (2006 black)
Dumau Cup Bronze Medallist (2008 open weight)

[SPX]

Noons/Couture is interesting. Couture has kind of been exceeding expectations and Noons looked like SHIT against Thomson.

I think that one largely comes down to whether or not Noons really shows up. If he does, and he can keep it on the feet and work his boxing, he should win. But a Couture upset really would not shock me.

[SPX]

As for the Gurgel fight, I'm staying far away from that shit. Maybe take Adriano if he's like +175 or better, but I don't think that's going to happen.

But Gurgel might just come out and win handily. Or he might get his ass kicked. Either seems about as likely.

[edman5555]

Noons/Couture is interesting. Couture has kind of been exceeding expectations and Noons looked like SHIT against Thomson.

I think that one largely comes down to whether or not Noons really shows up. If he does, and he can keep it on the feet and work his boxing, he should win. But a Couture upset really would not shock me.

Yeah Couture has definetly done that. Noons is also up and down. It is a tough call.

[edman5555]

As for the Gurgel fight, I'm staying far away from that shit. Maybe take Adriano if he's like +175 or better, but I don't think that's going to happen.

But Gurgel might just come out and win handily. Or he might get his ass kicked. Either seems about as likely.

I havent seen many Gurgel fights but he doesn't seem to fare all that well. He also has never knocked anyone out which leads me to believe he lacks power in his hands. On top of that he is a BJJ guy and he has only submitted one guy since 2005.

[edman5555]

He is also pushing 35.

[poopoo333]

I agree with both of SPX's last two posts. However, Gurgel probably couldn't beat Kyle Maynard "handily".

[SPX]

Gurgel has great BJJ creds, but he rarely works his grappling in fights. He usually just stands and bangs and the result is usually him losing a decision. But with that said, most of the guys he's lost too are solid (but not top tier) fighters. And he does have a few wins in SF so it's not like he never wins a fight.

From the info I've got though, it's either a dog bet on Adriano or nothing. Or I guess maybe a dog bet on Gurgel if he opens as a healthy dog, which could happen, I guess. I suspect this fight's gonna be a pick 'em though and at even-ish odds I'll just stay away from the shit.

[SPX]

I agree with both of SPX's last two posts. However, Gurgel probably couldn't beat Kyle Maynard "handily".

Hey, he subbed Billy Vaughan in 44 secs.

Then again Billy Vaughan is 11-14 according to Fight Finder.

[poopoo333]

Also, I am really hoping I can get that Gracie/Barnett/Cormier parlay better than -300. Any chance of that happening? Won't be surprised to see Barnett and Cormier -2000 each......

[edman5555]

I'd like to find some video on Martins. I also would take him as a dog. Maybe. I should watch video first.

My reasoning process so far is this:

Martins has approximately as good a BJJ background as Gurgel. BJJ seems like it is Gurgels main way of finishing fights. This could be nullified by Martins

Gurgel is turning 36 in three weeks. Martins is younger, 30.

Martins has registered quite a few tko's as well as subs.

To sum it up: I like a guy with a more diverse skillset that is younger and probably on his way up versus down.

All that said I am reading play by plays on Gurgel and he seems pretty damn tough.

[poopoo333]

I'd like to find some video on Martins. I also would take him as a dog. Maybe. I should watch video first.

My reasoning process so far is this:

Martins has approximately as good a BJJ background as Gurgel. BJJ seems like it is Gurgels main way of finishing fights. This could be nullified by Martins

Gurgel is turning 36 in three weeks. Martins is younger, 30.

Martins has registered quite a few tko's as well as subs.

To sum it up: I like a guy with a more diverse skillset that is younger and probably on his way up versus down.

All that said I am reading play by plays on Gurgel and he seems pretty damn tough.

If you find videos of him will you embed them in this thread please?

[edman5555]

ok

[edman5555]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kxook5VTcU&feature=player_detailpage

This is against a guy that only had 6 fights.

[edman5555]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJeQ-lW8NCc&feature=player_detailpage

Against someone more experienced. I haven't watched it yet.

[edman5555]

Gurgel has been out for 1.5 years. I just noticed that. Also, I watched his fight against duarte and Kj noons. He looks pretty tough and not bad on the feet. His takedowns werent very effective on Duarte.

[zY|]

He got brained so hard vs Noons.

[SPX]

He did. And I was actually worried Noons was going to get DQd because it did look like he blatantly hit him after the bell.

[edman5555]

He kept trying to brawl with noons but noons was picking his shots really well. It caught up with gurgel though. I give him credit for being tough though. I don't know what will happen between him and Martins. I guess I need to do more research. Finding a video of Jungle fight 30 would be really important. Martins fights Francisco trinaldo. He is the brazilian kickboxing champion that knocked out delson heleno in his ufc debut and had a close fight with Gleison Tibau. Finding out how he performed against him could tell us a lot.

[SPX]

I wouldn't force a bet if you don't feel confident. There are other fights, after all.

[edman5555]

I wouldn't force a bet if you don't feel confident. There are other fights, after all.

Thanks, I think your right.

[edman5555]

I gotta wonder, where the hell are the odds for this?

[SPX]

I was wondering that, too. I actually didn't even realize there was an event before the next UFC until today because there's nothing posted on BFO.

[edman5555]

I was wondering that, too. I actually didn't even realize there was an event before the next UFC until today because there's nothing posted on BFO.

I know. They will post it a week before or something like that. I am hoping to get my big bankroll ready for before then. I think there are some opportunities on this card because of all the mismatches.

[SPX]

I think the opportunities will all depend on the lines.

I fully anticipate Cormier, Gracie and Barnett to be unbettable. Probably Jacare, too.

The rest we'll just have to see on.

[edman5555]

Gracie and Jacare? Corm and Barnett maybe. I guess I was hoping Corm and Barnett would be like -500 but they will probably be -1100.

[poopoo333]

Cormier and Barnett will be -1000 at BEST imo. Gracie will be like -750 or worse. Jacare probably -525

[SPX]

Yeah, and all those lines are too shitty to bet in my opinion.

[Thewisemann]

I might take Herman if Souza is -500

[Thewisemann]

But I will be on the Gracie, Barnett and Cormier parlay.

[SPX]

Let's be real, Herman is probably going to get his ass kicked. But he's just good enough to where I'm not laying down 5 units to win 1 on Jacare.

[Vandelay]

Jacare will be around 4. Maybe open at 3. Corm and Barnett will both be -15 plus. and Gracie might be -5.

[Vandelay]

I mean the chick that just fought this weekend was -3500

[edman5555]

The only fights i feel really confident in are barnett, corm, and souza. Dion staring does look somewhat decent though. I like others to win but i am not sure about betting kennedy, gracie, marquardt. Are odds even coming out for this?

[edman5555]

Anyone think Saff can win this? Marquardt couldnt get by Yushin Okami. Okami has good tdd plus boxing. Saff isn't that far from that. Good TDD and kickboxing. I think it could be very close.

[edman5555]

Maybe Tarec Saff by decision.

[Luke]

Anyone think Saff can win this? Marquardt couldnt get by Yushin Okami. Okami has good tdd plus boxing. Saff isn't that far from that. Good TDD and kickboxing. I think it could be very close.

You cant compare Saff to Okami, you just cant.

[poopoo333]

You cant compare Saff to Okami, you just cant.

Yeah, Saff is way better.

































::lmao::

[edman5555]

You cant compare Saff to Okami, you just cant.

well okami could stuff marquardts takedowns and outpoint him boxing iirc. It was a while ago. Saff could very well be a better striker than okami. He has had 13 kickboxing matches. Obviously he lacks the offensive wrestling and grappling ability that okami has but he does have good takedown defense. Its not that crazy to think saff wins. If marquardt cant hold him down it could become a kickboxing match. Marqy mighht have the power but he might come up short on the technique.

[SPX]

It wouldn't be the biggest upset ever if Saff beat Marquardt, but Luke is right. You can't compare Saff and Okami. Marq basically hung in there with Okami in every respect. The only reason he really lost that fight was because he let Okami back him up against the cage and potshot him.

If anything, the fact that Marq was able to virtually fight an even fight with Okami bodes WELL for him against someone like Saff . . . not the other way around.

Oh and. . .



http://i.minus.com/iBSe1bSTGbd6s.gif

[Luke]

I dont know, I just dont see how Saff wins. Maybe I'm missing something, but -260 seems like a steal to me .

[SPX]

I'd probably play him at -260. Not sure about -315, though. I think that's a bit high.

[Luke]

I'd probably play him at -260. Not sure about -315, though. I think that's a bit high.

Didnt realized it moved again

[MMA_scientist]

This fight is probably going to be an all striking match. I think Saff has a chance personally.

[SPX]

I actually think Marquardt might try to take him down and do the same thing that he did to Dan Miller.

[edman5555]

Ya know you guys make some good points. Also id like to watch that matquardt woodley fight just for the entertainment value. That was a sick knockout. I think we all agree marquardt is the rightful favorite. I am sure we all agree he is the better grappler and we has more power in his hands. I still could see saf winning a decision. I read the play by plays for marq woodley and marquardt looked pretty good. I could see marquardt pressuring him for the win. Saff only has one win by knock out and marquardt is pretty damn good.

I get your point about the okami fight making you like marquardt more. Okami is pretty damn big compared to saff too.
Maybe ill bet marquardt.

Did anyone take this fight on short notice?

[edman5555]

I do worry marquardt might have some trouble makng it five rounds, he was gassing against okami at 185 but he probably had a way more testosterone replacement therapy muscle on him. Weight cut might hurt though, ill have to watch the woodley fight.

[SPX]

If you haven't seen the Woodley fight you need to watch that shit immediately. It's a good fight. I remember Woodley knocked Marquardt down at one point, but other than that, he pretty much got dominated. And the KO is something special.

[Luke]

Who am I kidding.....I wont bet it.

[Ludo]

If you haven't seen the Woodley fight you need to watch that shit immediately. It's a good fight. I remember Woodley knocked Marquardt down at one point, but other than that, he pretty much got dominated. And the KO is something special.

Woodley had a moment or two in there where he snagged a takedown and started landing some straight up gangster ground and pound, other than that the fight was fairly close until Marquardt went Mortal Kombat on with that Scorpion uppercut Fatality.

[poopoo333]

Cormier/Barnett is still unbettable..damn. Cormier/Barnett/Gracie/Kennedy is gonna be a big parlay for me. Also going to bet on a Jacare/Marquardt parlay (I might add Barnett and Cormier in there too). This card is easy.

[SPX]

It was "fairly close," I agree, but Marq was clearly in the driver seat for a good 80% of that fight.

[SPX]

Sportsbook is being a dick. They need to break some lines, because I'd probably go ahead and bet Jacare straight at his current line.

[poopoo333]

Jacare/Marquardt/Cormier/Barnett pays around -110 on 5d currently. Just put 5 units on that

[poopoo333]

Sportsbook is being a dick. They need to break some lines, because I'd probably go ahead and bet Jacare straight at his current line.

They should process my damn payout too. It's been a month.

[edman5555]

Jacare/Marquardt/Cormier/Barnett pays around -110 on 5d currently. Just put 5 units on that

Good luck. I might be joining you.

[poopoo333]

Speaking of Sportsbook..do they not allow MMA parlays?

[SPX]

They do not, unfortunately. Never have.

[SPX]

Where is the Noons/Gurgel line? I wanna peep that shit.

[poopoo333]

The prelim lines should be up soon on sportsbook

[trotterz]

They already are up on sportsbook

[trotterz]

For all of you guys who think that kyle is better than mousasi. You are getting awesome odds

[SPX]

I don't know shit about Tim Kennedy's opponent, but I took him at -300 anyway.

[SPX]

And fuck! Jacare's line got shitty.

[SPX]

Any thoughts on Noons/Couture?

And Gurgel at +200ish might be worth something small.

[SPX]

Fuck it, went ahead and bet Jacare at -475. He should have an 80%+ chance to win.

[mike]

i am on noons to win 1u. i think he will put alot of pressure on Couture and win the striking battle. his tdd is good enough to stop Couture from taking him to the ground. tempted to add more on Noons. Tiny parlay for fun on cormier, barnett, kennedy, healy. Healy's opponent looks pretty solid on the feet so hopefully Healy will go for the td right away.

[SPX]

I'm really curious about this Noons/Couture fight. I don't really want to see either guy lose. I kind of like them both. But I think that Noons NEEDS it more. He's 1-3 in his last four and if he wants to get into the UFC then he'll need a win here. Couture on the other hand is 5-1 in his career, all of which has been in Strikeforce. Even if he loses here, the strength of his overall record and the fact that his name is Couture should be enough to get him a ticket to the majors.

[SPX]

Tim Kennedy on "injured" SF fighters. . .

http://www.mmaweekly.com/tim-kennedy-disappointed-in-turnout-for-final-strikeforce-card-if-youre-a-fighter-you-should-fight

[SPX]

Anyone gonna bet Gurgel as a 2 to 1 dog?

[edman5555]

Anyone gonna bet Gurgel as a 2 to 1 dog?

Gurgel isnt bad. He might be able to take it. No bet for me thouh.

[poopoo333]

I bet against Gurgel at -265.

[SPX]

On some dude you've never seen fight on the big stage?

[poopoo333]

On some dude you've never seen fight on the big stage?

Yeah.

[SPX]

You chinky eyed, motherfucker! Don't you ever give me a one word answer again, you yellow fuck!

[poopoo333]

You chinky eyed, motherfucker! Don't you ever give me a one word answer again, you yellow fuck!

Sorry man.

[Thewisemann]

Gurgel is pretty much an auto-fade these days right?

[poopoo333]

Gurgel is pretty much an auto-fade these days right?

Yes, even against Kyle Maynard.

[SPX]

Listen, Chinese Samson.

If I ask a question, I'm wanting some sort of thoroughness in the answer. So let me rephrase:

WHY ARE YOU betting on some dude you've never seen fight on the big stage at a line like -265?

[poopoo333]

Listen, Chinese Samson.

If I ask a question, I'm wanting some sort of thoroughness in the answer. So let me rephrase

WHY ARE YOU betting on some dude you've never seen fight on the big stage at a line like -265?

Because based on what I have seen, I feel he is going to win. I guarantee Gurgel can fight at some smaller shows that the "some dude" has fought at and lost to some of those fighters. He is at a disadvantage in the striking department (in my opinion) and I think the fight takes place there.

[edman5555]

Gurgel is pushing 35 too. I watched his fit against joe duarte and he looked so so. His shots were horribly telegraphed.

[edman5555]

i am on noons to win 1u. i think he will put alot of pressure on Couture and win the striking battle. his tdd is good enough to stop Couture from taking him to the ground. tempted to add more on Noons. Tiny parlay for fun on cormier, barnett, kennedy, healy. Healy's opponent looks pretty solid on the feet so hopefully Healy will go for the td right away.

Noons almost lost to cnor huen via wrestling, couture beat huen pretty handily in the grappling department. I guess i lean towards a noons win here but i dont rule out a couture wrestli win.

[Luke]

What the hell is going on in here ??

[Luke]

On some dude you've never seen fight on the big stage?


Didnt you do the same thing betting Kennedy?

[SPX]

Didnt you do the same thing betting Kennedy?

It's flip flopped. I know Kennedy. We've seen him fight some top guys. That's different from laying -265 on some guy you've never seen fight anyone you've heard of.

[Luke]

It's flip flopped. I know Kennedy. We've seen him fight some top guys. That's different from laying -265 on some guy you've never seen fight anyone you've heard of.

Oh. Got ya. I was only have paying attention anyway

[mike]

Noons almost lost to cnor huen via wrestling, couture beat huen pretty handily in the grappling department. I guess i lean towards a noons win here but i dont rule out a couture wrestli win.

Couture isnt a very good wrestler, imo. He's physically weaker than Noons. He will have a very hard time taking Noons down and keep him there. Noons should beat him on the feet. Noons fought (and lost) to alot of top guys, beat a few good guys while Couture beat some average guys. I like Noons in this fight alot.

[edman5555]

Noons did give Josh Thomson a good fight. Maybe your onto something Mike.

[edman5555]

Then again, Couture is a state champ wrestler and he finished conor huen. Conor was able to wall and stall noons for almost three rounds.

[mike]

he placed 3rd in his hs senior year which i have no idea how much that weighs but his td does not not powerful to me.

[edman5555]

he placed 3rd in his hs senior year which i have no idea how much that weighs but his td does not not powerful to me.

Really? I just cant get past the fact that he demolished Conor Huen via wrestling and Conor Huen won all three rounds against KJ noons via wrestling. I know KJ is pretty damn good and I think he should probably be a bigger favorite but the fact that Couture was able to do that is making me scared to bet Noons. I know MMAmath isn't the best tool but still, you can see why I would have reservations.

[edman5555]

He had a close fight with Nick Diaz but it was primarily a striking match and Noons is a very experienced striker. He won 29-28 against Billy Evangelista. Evangelista has a pretty decent record. Masvidal dominated Noons. That worries me a little but I guess he is a completely differnet fighter. I am going to watch noons josh thomson to see how that one went.

[edman5555]

Josh Thompson kinda dominated Noons on the ground. http://www.allthebestfights.com/kj-noons-vs-thomson-full-fight-video-strikeforce-2012/

[mike]

thompson is a very good wrestler tho. i only have about 3u on Noons bc my record on betting sf fight isnt good lol. i have a feeling noons is going to stop the td attempts n dominate couture. at least hope so lol

[edman5555]

Well I just watched Couture versus Joe Duarte and it was a close fight. STanding, Couture doesn't have a whole lot. The issue is that Couture is pretty good at controlling his opponent on the ground. He was able to do that somewhat against Duarte and pretty effectively agaisnt Conor Heun. Heun is a good wrestler with a black belt in bjj. This doesn't mean he can get Kj down and control him but he might be able to.

[edman5555]

I'm feeling really strong about Souza. Shields beat Herman 3 rounds to zero and he is not on the level of Ronaldo. Seems like a good bet to me.

[edman5555]

Cormier/Barnett is still unbettable..damn. Cormier/Barnett/Gracie/Kennedy is gonna be a big parlay for me. Also going to bet on a Jacare/Marquardt parlay (I might add Barnett and Cormier in there too). This card is easy.

Gracie probably wins but his opponent has some power in his hands.

[Luke]

I'm feeling really strong about Souza. Shields beat Herman 3 rounds to zero and he is not on the level of Ronaldo. Seems like a good bet to me.

I'd actually would favor Shields over Souza in a match. Shields TD's at 185 are top notch.

[edman5555]

I'd actually would favor Shields over Souza in a match. Shields TD's at 185 are top notch.

I was thinking about that. The wrestling part that is. Shields might be a better wrestler than Souza, he probably is. He isn't as good at BJJ. He is a great wrestler though. Hendo, Kampmann, and even Okami way back in the day. That said, his standup isn't good at all. Souza has power in his hands as well as speed and submissions. Rockhold was able to stuff him for 5 rounds though. I guess I could be overestimating Souza but in this case I just don't see where Ed herman is better.

[edman5555]

I'd actually would favor Shields over Souza in a match. Shields TD's at 185 are top notch.

In a fight I would take Souza over Shields.

[Ludo]

I was thinking about that. The wrestling part that is. Shields might be a better wrestler than Souza, he probably is. He isn't as good at BJJ. He is a great wrestler though. Hendo, Kampmann, and even Okami way back in the day. That said, his standup isn't good at all. Souza has power in his hands as well as speed and submissions. Rockhold was able to stuff him for 5 rounds though. I guess I could be overestimating Souza but in this case I just don't see where Ed herman is better.

Herman probably has a better gastank than Souza, and he is the better striker. Jacare might have power but he's all lunging hooks and power straights. If, and this is admittedly a pretty big if, but if Herman clinch Jacare up against the fence he might be able to wear on him and even rough him up there. It's going to be hard for him to avoid being muscled to the ground though.

[Ludo]

In a fight I would take Souza over Shields.

I would take Shields in a fight with Jacare. Jacare probably isn't submitting Jake, even from top position. But he's likely going to be on the bottom the whole time against Shields, and Jake doesn't really make the kind of mistakes that Souza usually capitalizes on to force sweeps/submissions in the scrambles. Jake is about as sound a top control grappler as there is in MMA. Also, Jacare isn't nearly as good standing as he would have to be in order to really totally prevent Jake from getting inside and going for that takedown.

[edman5555]

Herman probably has a better gastank than Souza, and he is the better striker. Jacare might have power but he's all lunging hooks and power straights. If, and this is admittedly a pretty big if, but if Herman clinch Jacare up against the fence he might be able to wear on him and even rough him up there. It's going to be hard for him to avoid being muscled to the ground though.

Souza went 5 rounds in 2010 and 2011. He won the fight in 2010 against tim kennedy. You think it will be hard for Jacare to avoid being muscled to the ground by Ed herman?

[Ludo]

Souza went 5 rounds in 2010 and 2011. He won the fight in 2010 against tim kennedy. You think it will be hard for Jacare to avoid being muscled to the ground by Ed herman?

Souza didn't have to grapple against Kennedy, Ed Herman will not just stand there and try to strike for five rounds. I said it might be hard for Herman to avoid being muscled to the ground.

[edman5555]

Souza didn't have to grapple against Kennedy, Ed Herman will not just stand there and try to strike for five rounds. I said it might be hard for Herman to avoid being muscled to the ground.

Yeah herman did come out and say he wanted to take souza into deep waters.

[MMA_scientist]

Herman probably has a better gastank than Souza, and he is the better striker. Jacare might have power but he's all lunging hooks and power straights. If, and this is admittedly a pretty big if, but if Herman clinch Jacare up against the fence he might be able to wear on him and even rough him up there. It's going to be hard for him to avoid being muscled to the ground though.

I think Jacare is a much better striker than Herman. He also has better takedowns, Herman has never gone 5 rounds so I can't comment on his gas tank... but Souza is going to win ITD so it won't mattter.

[edman5555]

I think Jacare is a much better striker than Herman. He also has better takedowns, Herman has never gone 5 rounds so I can't comment on his gas tank... but Souza is going to win ITD so it won't mattter.

You really that confident in Souza? I was at first but I feel like they made some good points about him.

[edman5555]

Souza the better striker as well? I feel like he is much faster.

[MMA_scientist]

You really that confident in Souza? I was at first but I feel like they made some good points about him.

I just don't think much of Herman. He loses to every decent fighter and Jacare would be his best win ever. I don't think Herman has a legit path to victory.

[Mr. IWS]

I just don't think much of Herman. He loses to every decent fighter and Jacare would be his best win ever. I don't think Herman has a legit path to victory.

I agree. Ill be parlaying Cormier, barnet and souza tonight.

[poopoo333]

Jacare/Herman will not be 5 rounds. It is a 3 round fight, it's at a catchweight of 193.

[Ludo]

Don't get Me wrong. I don't think Herman will win, but I feel like he's being underrated a little bit here. Herman already has some legit wins on his record. Brian Ebersole, Glover Texiera, David Loiseau, and Kyle Noke. I think Jacare beats most of those guys as well but the point is Herman has been fighting the next big thing over and over throughout his career, and he just may have a few surprises for Jacare here.

[poopoo333]

Good luck to everybody tonight!

[edman5555]

How does everyone see KJ Noons versus Couture? Anyone know anything about Noons training camp? I cant find anything. I know he has been out for a while and Couture is going to be looking to wrestle.

[edman5555]

Don't get Me wrong. I don't think Herman will win, but I feel like he's being underrated a little bit here. Herman already has some legit wins on his record. Brian Ebersole, Glover Texiera, David Loiseau, and Kyle Noke. I think Jacare beats most of those guys as well but the point is Herman has been fighting the next big thing over and over throughout his career, and he just may have a few surprises for Jacare here.

That was texiera's fourth fight many years ago. I noticed it too.

[edman5555]

How does everyone see KJ Noons versus Couture? Anyone know anything about Noons training camp? I cant find anything. I know he has been out for a while and Couture is going to be looking to wrestle.

Anyone have anything to say about Noons?

[SPX]

KJ stands for Karl James.

[poopoo333]

KJ stands for Karl James.

::lmao::

[SPX]

But seriously, I think it's going to come down to Noons' T3D. If he can keep it on the feet then I think he'll win. Couture should not be able to outbox him.

But he had such little success in defending Thomson's takedowns that I lack some confidence in his ability to just throw Couture off of him.

At even money, though? KJ.

[poopoo333]

Everything points towards KJ imo, but I have this feeling Couture is going to make it closer than people believe.

[MMA_scientist]

I also believe KJ will win by stuffing enough takedowns

[edman5555]

Everything points towards KJ imo, but I have this feeling Couture is going to make it closer than people believe.

Yeah Couture has been impressing. He is a solid wrestler that is good at controlling on the ground. Whatever his overall skill level is, he is a better wrestler than KJ. I noticed that Gurgel couldn't do much against KJ. Gurgel couldn't do much against Joe Duarte either but Couture got Duarte down quite a bit. Duarte isn't as good as KJ on the feet though. Its too tough to call IMO. I think KJ has the overall advantage due to his experience but I would have to get him at even money.

[edman5555]

I just watched an interview with Gegard. He was out for a year due to a torn ACL. He claims to finally have an actual training camp. I think he said that before. I expect him to win but I don't like the long layoff and big odds. Throw in the fact that Kyl isn't half bad and Keith Jardine was almost able to take Gegard down a fair amount and I have trouble pulling the trigger.

[edman5555]

The only ones I feel super confident about right now are Souza and Marquardt. I say Marquardt now because I watched Saff's fight against Tyler Stinson and I watched Marquardts fight against Tyron Woodley. I think Nate is going to overwhelm him.

[edman5555]

And for the record, is everyone convinced Gracie is going to blow this guy away?

[poopoo333]

Sat 1/12

2003 Marquardt/Saffiedine goes 5 rnd distance

+140





11:59PM

2004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

-180





Sat 1/12

2005 Marquardt wins inside distance

-140





11:59PM

2006 Not Marquardt inside distance

+100





Sat 1/12

2007 Marquardt wins by 5 round decision

+300





11:59PM

2008 Not Marquardt by 5 round decision

-420





Sat 1/12

2009 Saffiedine wins inside distance

+563





11:59PM

2010 Not Saffiedine inside distance

-1087





Sat 1/12

2011 Saffiedine wins by 5 round decision

+441





11:59PM

2012 Not Saffiedine by 5 round decision

-722





Sat 1/12

2013 Marquardt/Saffiedine draw

+8500





11:59PM

2014 Fight not a draw

-23000





Sat 1/12

2015 Marquardt wins in round 1

+325





11:59PM

2016 Any other result

-475





Sat 1/12

2017 Marquardt wins in round 2

+450





11:59PM

2018 Any other result

-750





Sat 1/12

2019 Marquardt wins in round 3

+650





11:59PM

2020 Any other result

-1350





Sat 1/12

2021 Marquardt wins in round 4

+1050





11:59PM

2022 Any other result

-2150





Sat 1/12

2023 Marquardt wins in round 5

+1650





11:59PM

2024 Any other result

-4950





Sat 1/12

2025 Saffiedine wins in round 1

+1500





11:59PM

2026 Any other result

-4500





Sat 1/12

2027 Saffiedine wins in round 2

+1700





11:59PM

2028 Any other result

-5100





Sat 1/12

2029 Saffiedine wins in round 3

+2200





11:59PM

2030 Any other result

-6600





Sat 1/12

2031 Saffiedine wins in round 4

+2900





11:59PM

2032 Any other result

-10300





Sat 1/12

2033 Saffiedine wins in round 5

+4000





11:59PM

2034 Any other result

-16000





Sat 1/12

2035 Marquardt wins by submission

+315





11:59PM

2036 Any other result

-445





Sat 1/12

2037 Marquardt wins by TKO/KO

+180





11:59PM

2038 Any other result

-260





Sat 1/12

2039 Saffiedine wins by submission

+1480





11:59PM

2040 Any other result

-4320





Sat 1/12

2041 Saffiedine wins by TKO/KO

+500





11:59PM

2042 Any other result

-900





Sat 1/12

2043 Marquardt wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.

+370





11:59PM

2044 Any other result

-560





Sat 1/12

2045 Marquardt wins by 5 rnd split/maj dec.

+1370





11:59PM

2046 Any other result

-3380





Sat 1/12

2047 Saffiedine wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.

+525





11:59PM

2048 Any other result

-975





Sat 1/12

2049 Saffiedine wins by 5 rnd split/maj dec

+1675





11:59PM

2050 Any other result

-5025





Sat 1/12

2051 Marquardt/ Saffiedine starts round 5

+130





11:59PM

2052 Fight won't start round 5

-160





Sat 1/12

2053 Marquardt/Saffiedine starts round 4

-105





11:59PM

2054 Fight won't start round 4

-125





Sat 1/12

2055 Marquardt/Saffiedine starts round 3

-165





11:59PM

2056 Fight won't start round 3

+135





Sat 1/12

2057 Marquardt/Saffiedine starts round 2

-375





11:59PM

2058 Fight won't start round 2

+285





any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details


Sat 1/12

2059 Marquardt points handicap
-3½ -225






11:59PM

2060 Saffiedine points handicap
+3½ +175






Daniel Cormier vs Dion Staring - Strikeforce propositions


Sat 1/12

2103 Cormier/Staring goes 3 round distance

+500





11:30PM

2104 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-900





Sat 1/12

2105 Cormier wins inside distance

-600





11:30PM

2106 Not Cormier inside distance

+400





Sat 1/12

2107 Cormier wins by 3 round decision

+559





11:30PM

2108 Not Cormier by 3 round decision

-1075





Sat 1/12

2109 Staring wins inside distance

+1350





11:30PM

2110 Not Staring inside distance

-3250





Sat 1/12

2111 Staring wins by 3 round decision

+3430





11:30PM

2112 Not Staring by 3 round decision

-13000





Sat 1/12

2113 Cormier/Staring draw

+12500





11:30PM

2114 Fight not a draw

-37500





Josh Barnett vs Nandor Guelmino - Strikeforce propositions


Sat 1/12

2203 Barnett/Guelmino goes 3 round distance

+475





11:00PM

2204 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-825





Sat 1/12

2205 Barnett wins inside distance

-530





11:00PM

2206 Not Barnett inside distance

+350





Sat 1/12

2207 Barnett wins by 3 round decision

+533





11:00PM

2208 Not Barnett by 3 round decision

-997





Sat 1/12

2209 Guelmino wins inside distance

+1145





11:00PM

2210 Not Guelmino inside distance

-2435





Sat 1/12

2211 Guelmino wins by 3 round decision

+3150





11:00PM

2212 Not Guelmino by 3 round decision

-11450





Sat 1/12

2213 Barnett/Guelmino draw

+11500





11:00PM

2214 Fight not a draw

-34500





Gegard Mousasi vs Mike Kyle - Strikeforce propositions


Sat 1/12

2303 Mousasi/Kyle goes 3 round distance

+220





10:30PM

2304 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-300





Sat 1/12

2305 Mousasi wins inside distance

-195





10:30PM

2306 Not Mousasi inside distance

+155





Sat 1/12

2307 Mousasi wins by 3 round decision

+372





10:30PM

2308 Not Mousasi by 3 round decision

-562





Sat 1/12

2309 Kyle wins inside distance

+627





10:30PM

2310 Not Kyle inside distance

-1280





Sat 1/12

2311 Kyle wins by 3 round decision

+625





10:30PM

2312 Not Kyle by 3 round decision

-1275





Sat 1/12

2313 Mousasi/Kyle draw

+8500





10:30PM

2314 Fight not a draw

-23000





Ronaldo Souza vs Ed Herman - Strikeforce propositions


Sat 1/12

2403 Souza/Herman goes 3 round distance

+135





10:00PM

2404 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-175





Sat 1/12

2405 Souza wins inside distance

-110





10:00PM

2406 Not Souza inside distance

-130





Sat 1/12

2407 Souza wins by 3 round decision

+160





10:00PM

2408 Not Souza by 3 round decision

-210





Sat 1/12

2409 Herman wins inside distance

+494





10:00PM

2410 Not Herman inside distance

-880





Sat 1/12

2411 Herman wins by 3 round decision

+725





10:00PM

2412 Not Herman by 3 round decision

-1545

[poopoo333]

And for the record, is everyone convinced Gracie is going to blow this guy away?

At first but then I completely overlooked the fact that Gracie might not be able to get Smith down. However...I remember him murdering Jardine..did he get takedowns on Jardine easily?

[edman5555]

I think he got a few. Jardine won the last round. I think Jardine is a better fighter than this guy though. He got Trevor Prangley down too.

[edman5555]

I am thinking about betting Tim KEnnedy but that Trevor Smith guy looks like a pretty good submissionist.

[edman5555]

I looked up the last guy he subbed by guillotine and it was a black belt in BJJ from Team Link. Gabe Gonzagas team.

[MMA_scientist]

And for the record, is everyone convinced Gracie is going to blow this guy away?

I don't know about everyone else, but I am. His opponent probably has better striking...maybe. But Roger will take him down and do his thing.

[edman5555]

I just watched Trevors smith last fight against Moreno. He won against a black belt by Guillotine but he stunned the guy with punches multiple times during the fight. He honestly doesn't look that good. He started to gas after about 2.5 minutes. His striking was sloppy as hell. I think it will take a miracle for this guy to beat tim kennedy.

[edman5555]

Started my new bankroll for this year. 300 dollar units. Currently scared shitless because I have about 13 units on the line.

[edman5555]

If I win I will put winnings on Marquardt. I think he wins.

[poopoo333]

Damn so you have over a grand on a lot of plays tonight..good luck man.

What do you do for a living?

[edman5555]

Damn so you have over a grand on a lot of plays tonight..good luck man.

What do you do for a living?

I work for walgreens in a distribution center. I not a high roller by any means but I had some money saved up and I am getting a huge tax return this year so I decided to try to go big this year. I am nervous but somewhat detached. I just hit the gym for the first time today in 6 months and I have a case of the shits. Anyways I have a shitload of money on the line. I only have about 6k in cash. I put 4k in the books today. A little less actually. That was the most I could get in on short notice. 2k in 5dimes. 900 in bookmaker and 900 in legends. Betdsi wouldn't let me deposit the same day as bookmaker.

[MMA_scientist]

Good luck edman, I think this is a good safe card to start off on. Id like to see you make a run.

[edman5555]

Thanks. I felt the same way about this card.

[poopoo333]

Strikeforce finale results: Adriano Martins def. Jorge Gurgel via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

....

[edman5555]

I did hours of research and then did not bet.

[SPX]

Decided to go ahead and roll the dice on Noons.

[edman5555]

Sorry bud. You were rght if that counts for anything.

[SPX]

WTF?! I thought this shit was on the main card.

GodDAMN IT!

I'm pretty close to losing my entire SB account.