11-22-12 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:42 PM

NFL Odds: Week 12 Opening Line Report
by Jason Logan

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.

“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:42 PM

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Thanksgiving Day

A special day calls for a special edition of NFL mismatches. And in the run of the NFL schedule, rarely do you find a more special day than Thanksgiving. We break down some of the underlying mismatches, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping Thursday’s action:

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

Texans’ pissed pass defense vs. Lions’ WR drama

Houston’s fourth-ranked defense had an uncharacteristic day last weekend, allowing the Jaguars’ second-stringer Chad Henne to pass for 354 yards and four touchdowns in a near overtime upset. Needless to say, defending the pass was priority No. 1 for the Texans during the short week.

“We didn’t play up to our standard,” Texans’ head coach Gary Kubiak told the Houston Chronicle. “We had an opportunity to start fast as a team, but then we started giving up big plays. We had a few assignment issues, which is unusual for us. That’s something we’ve got to fix. We had a couple of opportunities to make plays, but we didn’t make them.”

Detroit had its hands full with WR Titus Young last Sunday and will bench the second-year wideout after he was openly unhappy about his role in the offense and didn’t complete routes in last week’s loss to Green Bay. That leaves the Lions thin at receiver, allowing Houston to concentrate on Calvin Johnson.

Megatron was invisible in crunch time versus the Packers and was thrown to just once in the final three possessions, which came on the final play of the game. Green Bay locked up Johnson with a two-man trap in the secondary. Quarterback Matt Stafford was also sacked five times by the Packers and now faces the sack-happy Texans, who have 27 QB kills this year.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

Redskins’ rushing defense vs. Cowboys’ RB injuries

Dallas has become very one-dimensional since RB DeMarco Murray went down with the foot injury in Week 6. The Cowboys managed just 63 yards on 21 carries versus the Browns last week and rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Cleveland, knowing Dallas couldn’t run the ball, brought heavy pressure on Tony Romo, sacking him seven times and forcing a fumble late in the game.

Backup RB Felix Jones hasn’t been able to shoulder the load and has been less than 100 percent all season. Jones left the field in the fourth quarter Sunday, leaving the Cowboys with third-stringer Lance Dunbar. Murray is out again and Jones will limp into Thanksgiving with a bum knee.

Washington is doing one thing right on defense, stuffing the run. The Redskins are giving up just 94.6 yards on the ground per game (in part to their poor pass defense), and checked Philadelphia for just 80 yards on 21 carries and knocked RB LeSean McCoy out of the game in Sunday’s win. Foes are picking up the first down on the ground just 23.5 percent of the time versus Washington. Dallas has picked up a fresh 10 yards on just 22 percent of its run attempts this season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Patriots’ no-huddle offense vs. Jets’ third down defense

The Patriots’ rapid pace on offense has produced an average of more than 28 first downs per game, including a stellar 51 percent success rate on third downs this year. New England hung 59 points on the Colts last Sunday, marching for 7.4 yards per play including 13.8 yards per pass completion from Tom Brady.

Sure, Rob Gronkowski is out and Aaron Hernandez is not 100 percent, but Bill Belichick’s offense has proven it’s not about the players but the system. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman – Wes Welker 2.0 – were targeted a combined 18 times Sunday, posting a total of 12 catches for 138 yards and one score. The Pats’ no-huddle will help these slippery receivers shed the coverage for big yardage.

New York’s defense has done well against the pass, allowing just over 200 yards per game (in part to a porous run stop) and “held” Brady to 259 yards and two TDs in their overtime loss to New England in Week 7. However, New York has watched opponents convert third downs at a 42.86 percent rate (third worst in the NFL) this season. The Jets complained about the Pats’ no-huddle earlier this year, arguing about substitution rules, and could be sucking wind when it counts thanks to the short-week Thanksgiving schedule.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:43 PM

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions Point Spread - Pick

Houston Texans (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thanksgiving Day, November 22, 12:30 p.m. EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
TV: Fox
by Vesper Abadon, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Hou -3/Det +3
Over/Under Total: 49

The Houston Texans were projected to be AFC Super Bowl contenders prior to the start of the season, and through ten games they've not disappointed. They're an NFL best 9-1, tied with the NFC's Atlanta Falcons, and a cinch to make the Playoffs. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions, who finished in 10-6 in 2011, have fizzled in the early going and are a lackluster 4-6.

So what has these teams, which are both in the offense and defense top ten, at opposite ends of the results spectrum? The answer is simple-the Texans are better balanced and more disciplined. Their offense is 6th in the league thanks to an 8th-ranked rushing game, which averages 136.7 yards per game (YPG), and 12th-ranked aerial attack at 246.2 YPG.

Running back Arian Foster has been the team's workhorse, carrying 249 times (more than any other back in the league) for 949 yards (3.8 AVG) and a league-leading ten touchdowns. Overall Foster is listed as the fourth-best running back in the NFL through Week 11, behind just Doug Martin (3rd), Marshawn Lynch (2nd) and Adrian Peterson (1st).

What's more, the Texans' offense also thrives through the air. Last week, quarterback Matt Schaub threw a career-high five touchdowns passes and completed a franchise-record 43 passes for 527 yards, second most in NFL history, in a 43-37 overtime win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. More than half those yards, 273 to be exact, went to wide receiver Andre Johnson, who caught 14 passes and scored a single touchdown. Needless to say, the Texans have a plethora of weapons both on the ground and through the air.

Defensively the Texans are pretty good too; in fact, they're ranked 4th-best in the NFL as they hold opponents to an average of 299.2 YPG, which includes 213.6 YPG through the air and 85.6 YPG on the ground. They're allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 25.6%, and hold opposing teams to an average of just 18 points per game. To put it simply, it's extremely difficult to move the ball against the Texans.

With that said, if any team can do it, it'd be the Lions, who have the 2nd-best offense in the league. That comes courtesy of the best passing game in the NFL with 301.8 YPG, and the 23rd-ranked rushing offense at 99.9 YPG.

The rushing game, featuring Mikel Leshoure (124 carries for 502 yards and five touchdowns), isn't overly impressive, but has helped open up things for Matthew Stafford. The young quarterback has completed 265 of 427 passes for 2,988 yards, 12 touchdowns, and ten interceptions-giving him a fourth-best 82.6 rating among quarterbacks. Obviously his favorite target is Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, who has hauled in 65 receptions for 1,117 yards (17.2 Avg) and three touchdowns. While he hasn't found the endzone as frequently as last year, Johnson continues to show he's one of the best at what he does.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions hold opponents to an average of 328.1 YPG, which includes 214 passing YPG and 114.1 rushing YPG-good enough for the 10th-best defense in the league.

Vesper Abadon's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I can't think of a better way to kickoff Thanksgiving Day than with this game. The last time these two teams met was way back on October 19th, 2008 when the Texans won 28-21. Before that was September 19, 2004 when the Lions won 28-16. It's a rare inter-conference matchup, and that always makes for a sweet treat.

I think that Houston may have peaked already and I also think Detroit is starting to heat up. I expect a battle on Turkey Day with the Lions pulling off a major upset which will leave many with a second stomach ache.
I'm "gobbling" up the +3.5 with the Lions!

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:43 PM

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Point Spread - Pick

Washington Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 22nd, 2012, 4:15 p.m. EST
Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Wash. +3.5/DAL -3.5
Over/Under Total: 48

The Dallas Cowboys annual Thanksgiving Day game will have a new twist this season, when they welcome their NFC East rival Washington Redskins into Cowboys Stadium for a battle between wildcard hopefuls in the afternoon contest on Fox.

While both teams enter the Turkey Day contest fresh off of victories, the way they scored those wins were extremely different.

It was just 14 days ago when Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was talking about "evaluating talent" the rest of the regular season, following an embarrassing, 21-13, loss at home to the two-win Carolina Panthers. Following Sunday's impressive, 31-6, demolishing of the hapless Philadelphia Eagles, a game where rookie QB Robert Griffin III threw four touchdowns and looked like a future superstar, now suddenly the Redskins are back to talking about "believing" again that they have a "legitimate shot" at getting back into the NFC East race and NFC wild card hunt.

But while the Redskins were busy drilling the Eagles, the Cowboys were running for their lives against the Cleveland Browns.

Dallas pushed the game into overtime with a length of the field drive in just over a minute to tie the game at, 20-20, then took advantage of a "generous" non-fumble call on Miles Austin in overtime to sneak away with a gift-win over the Browns, 23-20. With seven more sacks Tony Romo has become a human pinball, and with starting left tackle Tyron Smith out with a bum ankle against the Browns, now the Cowboys issues along the offensive front have been upgraded to critical with a short week to prepare for the annual holiday game just a few days away.

Oddsmakers set the opening point spread with the Cowboys as 4-point favorites at home, but within hours the betting public that just finished watching the Redskins look unbeatable and the Cowboys barely get past the two-win Browns hammered the Skins so much that the number has dropped to Dallas minus -3.5.

The over/under total opened at 46 and quickly moved up to 48 before the close of business on Sunday night.

The short week is certainly going to have a huge effect on the Cowboys offense for Thursday. Dallas has already been pulling guys off the street to fill roles along the offensive line, and now with Smith and his ankle a likely "game time" decision, who knows is Romo will be able to take advantage of the Redskins weak secondary (allowing 289 ypg - 29th) in the passing game.

Dallas has virtually stopped trying to run the ball too, and with DeMarco Murray (foot) and backup Felix Jones (knee) both questionable for Thursday, the few carries the Cowboys give to running backs these days might go to third-stringer Lance Dunbar.

Last week the Redskins offense looked tough to beat, but in reality it was all RGIII (and the Eagles crappy defense). The rookie was 14-of-15 and threw for four scores, but he is also the Skins best running back (84 yards, 7.0 ypc), and the workload wasn't a factor coming out of the bye week but that hasn't always been the case this season. Griffin will be facing a strong Dallas pass defense (211 ypg - 6th), and Demarcus Ware and his 10 sacks coming off the edge, so if the Redskins think they can get away with him being 90 percent of their offense again this week they might want to think twice.

Dallas did sweep the season series last year, which is part of the reason the Redskins wound up with RGIII in the draft. However, both games were much closer than you'd have thought, with the Cowboys winning at home in Cowboys Stadium, 18-16, in September before scoring a 27-24 win in D.C. in November.

Dallas has not been a good wager in games against the NFC East however, going 4-11 ATS in the last three seasons. Washington has been the opposite, going 10-4 ATS during the same span.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With a short week and so many issues along their offensive line, I have no idea how the Cowboys will be able to get prepared for this game. But Washington will not be as explosive as they were against the Eagles. RGIII won't carve up the Cowboys, and Romo will be running for his life again on Thursday.
Take the under of 48.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:44 PM

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Point Spread - Pick

New England Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 22nd, 2012, 8:20 p.m. EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV: NBC
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: NE -7/NYJ +7
Over/Under Total: 48.5

If you can stay awake long enough with a belly fully of turkey and all of the fixings, the National Football League will treat you to a third helping of football when the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in an AFC East battle at MetLife Stadium on Thanksgiving night on NBC.

The Patriots and Tom Brady no doubt will be the main feature of the Turkey Day primetime telecast, but it's going to be very hard for them to top last week's performance in their, 59-24, victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Brady threw for 331 yards and three scores, the Pats offense added two more on the ground, the special teams unit returned a kick for a score and even the maligned Patriots defense kicked in to the rout with two interceptions returned for a score as they thoroughly dominated the Colts and rookie QB Andrew Luck.

But the Jets are also coming off of a big victory, as they snapped a three-game losing streak with their most complete game of the season so far in their, 27-13, win on the road in St. Louis last Sunday. With 41 running plays called and only 21 passes, the Jets offense finally returned to their run-first approach and it paid off with the Jets highest offensive output in over a month.

With a three-game lead in the AFC East standings the Patriots could deliver the final knockout blow to the Jets with a win on Thanksgiving, but New York will certainly do everything in their power and then some to make sure that doesn't happen with a huge primetime audience watching on NBC.

With the point spread still less than 24 hours old, there's already been a lot of line movement on this game too. New England opened as a full touchdown favorite following their 59-point outburst on Sunday, but with a bunch of sharp money coming in on the home-dog Jets the number has dropped down as low as 5.5 at a majority of sportsbooks, with a bounce back up to 7.

The over/under total has also moved several points already, opening at 51 before dropping to 49 or 48.5 at most sportsbooks.

Of course it's going to be very hard for the Patriots and Brady to replicate last week's scoring binge. But if you look at the way the Patriots offense has been attacking this season, you'd almost expect Brady to defer to his running game considering the Jets have been gouged repeatedly by the run to the tune of 142 yards a game allowed on the ground (30th in NFL). Quietly the Patriots are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (143 ypg), so at least on paper it looks like an easy way to attack and keep Brady from getting knocked around unnecessarily.

The Jets offense will likely try and take advantage of the Pats 30th-ranked pass defense (290 ypg), but with quarterback Mark Sanchez struggling (193 ypg - 29th) and the Jets receiving core racked with injury, it's a million-dollar mystery as to how they are going to do it. Plus, the Pats went out and traded for corner Aqib Talib to try and shore up their weak secondary, and the Tampa Bay reject has already made Bill Belichick look like a genius with a pick-six in his first game in a Patriots uniform.

But this is an AFC East rivalry game, and things are never that easy or that black and white.

Last season the Patriots swept the season series against the rival Jets, winning a, 37-16, decision at MetLife in November that propelled them into the post season. New England has already won the first meeting between these two teams this year too, a 29-26 overtime victory on a 49-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal just four weeks ago in week seven in mid-October.

Part of New England's strength the past few seasons has been their ability to play on the road, going 14-6 SU and 14-5 ATS. They've also gone 13-3 SU against teams in the AFC East, but it hasn't always translated into cashing a ticket since they are just 9-7 ATS over the past three seasons.

The Jets have been hard to sweep over the years, going 6-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in games where they are avenging a loss against an opponent from earlier in the season.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: A few times a year a really fishy line comes out and this qualifies as one of those times. If you'd has asked me what the spread on this game would be prior to it coming out I'd have boldly told you around -13.5. Then we get a 7? And it drops to 5.5? Then public money moves it back up to 7? Something stinks here. All signs point to a NE romp, HOWEVER, as much as I think I might know the people that move the lines know more. I'm recommending a pass on this game but if you have to bet it, take the Jets because fishy lines almost always equal fishy results.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:45 PM

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 94-57 (.623)
ATS: 69-87 (.442)
ATS Vary Units: 307-494 (.383)
Over/Under: 84-72 (.538)
Over/Under Vary Units: 333-256 (.565)

Thursday, November 22, 2012
Houston 29, DETROIT 23
DALLAS 28, Washington 19
New England 33, N.Y. JETS 24

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:45 PM

NCAA Football Game Picks

TCU at Texas

The Horned Frogs look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games off a bye week. TCU is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7). Here are all of the weekday games.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST

Game 109-110: TCU at Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 99.510; Texas 96.583
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 60
Vegas Line: Texas by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 03:46 PM

NFL

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 08:48 PM

Today's NFL Picks

New England at NY Jets

The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)

Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 11:36 PM

Cappers Access

(NFL) Texans -3-
(NFL) Redskins +3
(NFL) Patriots -7
(CFB) TCU +7-

Can'tPickAWinner

11-21-2012, 11:38 PM

NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -3 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)
The Washington Redskins enter the week 4-6 and 2-3 on the road, while the Cowboys are 5-5 and 2-2 at home this year. The Redskins blew out the Eagles 31-6 last week, while the Cowboys needed overtime to beat the Browns at home as 8 point favorites. It seems as if the public is looking at last week's performances and making their picks based on the Redskins looking good and the Cowboys barely beating a then 2-7 team at home. Take note though that the Redskins are just 1-3 over their last 4 games, with three straight losses against Carolina, Pittsburgh and New York Giants. The Cowboys have won two straight games, including handling the same Eagles team Washington beat at home last week 38-23 in Philadelphia. They are 3-2 over their last 5, with losses coming against the Giants and @Atlanta. The Redskins have the advantage on offense so far this season, ranking 8th and scoring just over 4 more ppg than the Cowboys (who rank 11th in the league). But with that said, the Cowboys rank 7th overall defensively and are giving up 3 less papg than the 26th ranked Washington defense. The Redskins are also 29th in the league against the pass. RG3 has been better than Tony Romo at the QB position this year, but with Dallas' pass rush and Washington's weak pass defense I wouldn't be surprised to see Romo have the better Thanksgiving Day. Take note that the Cowboys historically play well hosting their Thanksgiving Day game. They should have an even bigger advantage with just 3.5 days of rest for each team, and the Cowboys not having to travel. Note tha the Redskins are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. With very limited time to prepare for a divisional opponent on Thanksgiving Day I think the Redskins will have some troubles on Thursday. RG3's natural ability won't be enough to get them past Dallas on Thanksgiving. Take the Cowboys to win and cover in a big divisional game.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:05 AM

CBB

Orlando tournament
--West Virginia looked awful in 84-50 debacle at Gonzaga 10 days ago, expect better showing here; Huggins has young team that will improve as season goes on. Marist has all five starters back from 14-18 team, but a 1-2 start includes losses to Stony Brook/Colgate, not a good sign.
-- Davidson has 5 starters back from 25-8 team, but lost at New Mexico, Milwaukee to start season- they lost to Vanderbilt last two years, 87-83 at home LY, 80-52 in Nashville in '11. Commodores lost all 5 starters on LY's 25-11 team- they got crushed 74-48 at Oregon in only road game.
-- Oklahoma has 5 starters back from 15-16 team; they won at a decent Tex-Arlington team 63-59 last game. Big X road favorites are 4-5 vs the spread. UTEP lost last game by 21 at Arizona; they're starting three sophomores. C-USA road underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-3.
-- Gonzaga has 4 starters back from 26-7 team; they won first three tilts, all by 34+ points, including 84-50 win over West Virginia. Clemson has 5 freshman/6 sophs, very young team. ACC road teams are 12-7 against spread, 5-3 as road dogs. WCC favorites are 6-8, 0-2 on road.

Atlantis tournament
-- Missouri lost 4 starters from LY, but UConn transfer Oriakhi is stud inside; Tigers beat three stiffs to start season, go up in class vs Stanford squad that got upset at home by Belmont in last game. SEC favorites are 12-9 vs spread, 2-4 on road. Pac-12 road underdogs are 5-4.
-- Duke is shooting 55% inside arc, 38% outside it in 3-0 start; they have 4 starters back from 27-7 team, already have 75-68 win over Kentucky on neutral floor. Minnesota is 4-0, with 15-point win over Richmond, a pretty good team. Big Dozen road underdogs are 2-6 against spread.
-- Memphis has 4 starters back from 26-9 team; they start four juniors, but only beat two stiffs so far. VCU lost by hoop to Wichita; they have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. CAA single digit underdogs are 9-3 vs the spread. C-USA favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 2-2 away from home.
-- Louisville is 3-0 with wins by 26+ points; they've got three starters back from 30-10 team, have forced turnovers on 32.6% of possessions so far this season. Northern Iowa has 4 starters back from 20-14 team; they've beaten three stiffs, including 84-81 win over Toledo.

Anaheim tournament
-- Pacific has 5 starters back from 11-19 team; they lost first two games vs D-I teams, by 5 to Fresno, 2 to Oral Roberts. Xavier lost all 5 of its tarters from 23-12 team, but they whacked Butler already. Underdogs from Big West are 10-7 on road. Atlantic 16 road favorites are 5-3.
-- 1-2 Drexel's first three games were all decided by 2 points or in OT, a shaky start for team expected to win CAA; Dragons have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. St Mary's has 4 starters back from 27-6 team; 6 of their 7 rotation guys are juniors/seniors. WCC favorites are 7-7, 0-2 on road.
-- Rice was decimated by transfers this summer; they've got one starter back from LY, have 5 frosh/sophs in top six players, already lost by 13 to St Thomas, whoever that is. Georgia Tech has 3 freshmen starting on team that has all 5 starters back, so they've upgraded talent.
-- Cal Bears have 3 starters back from 24-10 team, are 3-0 with 11-point win at Denver, a decent win- Crabbe is one of best guards in west. Drake has 4 staters back from 18-16 team; 5 of their top 6 guys are freshman/ sophomores. MVC road underdogs are 7-2 against the spread.

Great Alaskan Shootout
-- Oral Roberts has 3 starters back from 27-7 team; they lost at UTEP by 20, won by hoop at Pacific, as they get ready for first season in new league, Southland. LMU has 3 starters back from 21-13 team; they lost first road game by 15 at SMU. WCC underdogs are 4-5 vs spread.
-- Charlotte has good recruits to go with 3 returning starters from 13-17 team; they start 2 frosh/3 sophs, whacked three stiffs to start this year. Texas State lost to SMU at home by 3; they've got 2 starters back from 13-17 team. WAC underdogs are 6-10, 4-6 away from home.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:11 AM

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/22/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 484-151 (.762)
ATS: 191-194 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 765-883 (.464)
Over/Under: 50-41 (.549)
Over/Under Vary Units: 77-67 (.535)

Battle 4 Atlantis
1st Round at Atlantis Resort, Paradise Island, The Bahamas
Duke vs. Minnesota: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Louisville 68, Northern Iowa 54
Memphis 65, Vcu 62
Missouri 78, Stanford 71

Mainland Bracket at Fort Myers, FL
Samford 67, Alcorn State 63
Florida Gulf Coast 70, Toledo 69

Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout
1st Round at Sullivan Arena, Anchorage, AK
Charlotte 78, Texas State 70
Oral Roberts 72, Loyola Marymount 71

DIRECTV Classic
1st Round at Anaheim Convention Center Arena, Anaheim, CA
California 72, Drake 65
Rice 61, Georgia Tech 59
Saint Mary's 69, Drexel 64
Xavier 75, Pacific 56

Old Spice Classic
1st Round at HP Fieldhouse, Lake Buena Vista, FL
Gonzaga 71, Clemson 61
Oklahoma 64, Utep 60
Vanderbilt 77, Davidson 69
West Virginia 75, Marist 59

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:26 AM

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 940-697 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play Thurs: NE Pats -7

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:27 AM

CAPPERS ACCESS
Texans
Redskins
Patriots
TCU

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:40 AM

NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Cheat Sheet

Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.

If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.

Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.

The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.

Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)

No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.

The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).

New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:41 AM

Texans at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.

The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition

TRENDS:

* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.

2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.

3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:42 AM

Redskins at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.

Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.

TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.

3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:42 AM

Patriots at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.

The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.

LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.

2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.

3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 08:43 AM

TCU at Texas: What Bettors Need to Know

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns (-7, 58)

Texas starts what will potentially be a new Thanksgiving rivalry when it hosts Texas Christian, their first meeting as members of the Big 12 Conference. The No. 15 Longhorns have played 75 games on Thanksgiving, including 64 - and the last four years - against Texas A&M. But the Longhorns' series with the Aggies ended with Texas A&M's defection to the Southeastern Conference. Texas, which finishes its regular season at Kansas State on Dec. 1, has won four straight since its 63-21 loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 13. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 23-10 loss to the then-No. 1 Wildcats on Nov. 10 and have lost three of their last four games.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texas opened -8 and has been bet down to a touchdown favorite. The total opened at 58 and has remained steady at the number.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow south at 7 mph.

ABOUT TCU (6-4, 3-4 Big 12, 4-6 ATS): The Horned Frogs have been plagued by turnovers with 11 in their last four games. Coupled with TCU's penchant for penalties (21st-most in the country at 7.2 per game), the Horned Frogs have made life difficult on themselves. Trevone Boykin, who took over at quarterback after Casey Pachall left school to deal with substance abuse, has eight interceptions, but has been brilliant at times with four touchdown passes in back-to-back games - a school record. Running backs Matthew Tucker and freshman B.J.Catalon combined for 108 yards on 18 carries against Kansas State and will try to exploit the nation's No. 98 rushing defense. TCU's defense is 16th in the country at 326.3 yards allowed.

ABOUT TEXAS (8-2, 5-2, 5-5 ATS): Sophomore quarterback David Ash has responded well to being pulled from the Longhorns' 21-17 victory at Kansas on Oct. 27. He has completed 72 percent of his passes and thrown for five touchdowns in the last two games, and was 25-of-31 for a career-high 364 yards in the Longhorns' 33-7 victory over Iowa State on Nov. 10. Ash's two primary targets are deep threat Mike Davis (45 catches, 18.6 yards per catch - fifth in the nation, seven touchdowns) and underneath option Jaxon Shipley (40, 12.5, five). The Longhorns have allowed 15.3 points per game in facing three of the four worst scoring offenses in the Big 12 in the last three contests after yielding 45.6 in their previous five.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
* Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 11-1 in Horned Frogs last 12 games following a bye week.
* Under is 5-2 in Longhorns last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas will be the fourth team TCU has faced this season which did not play the week before. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 in such games with victories over SMU (24-16), Baylor (49-41) and West Virginia (39-38 in double overtime).

2. TCU, which will play on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1928, has won 46 straight games when rushing for more yards than passing.

3. Texas leads the series 61-20-1 and has won the last four meetings, including 34-13 in 2007. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs were members of the Southwest Conference and met every season from 1927 until the league disbanded in 1995.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-22-2012, 09:15 AM

Bob Balfe

Happy Thanksgiving

Thursday November 22nd 2012

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Houston -3.5 over Detroit
The Lions Offense just does not have the depth this year to spread the ball around and make big plays. We all know who the ball is going to today. Calvin Johnson is the man, but the Houston Defense will keep a good eye on him. Detroit does not have much of a running game and I just don’t see them cracking this Houston Defense or being able to handle the 3-4 defense. The Texans are stacked on both sides of the ball and obviously will not take the Lions lightly after last weeks scare. Take Houston.

Redskins +3 over Cowboys
First are foremost the NFL has a superstar that they want to showcase today to million of viewers sitting around the TV with their family. It is good for the NFL for guys like RG3 and Luck to shine. Its sells a lot of jerseys and that is what the NFL is really all about. Money! Dallas just does not have the offensive line or running game to be competitive this year. This team is also thin at wide receiver and I just don’t see much scoring. This team has an easy schedule from here on out and I think will make a late playoff push in the NFC East when they get healthy. The Cowboys have talent, but injuries are hard to overcome. Washington has a very good offense that will find away to put up points. The Redskins Defense is nothing to brag about, but I think its one of those games that the Dallas Offense just does not have the man power to click and put up points. Take Washington

Jets/Patriots Under 48.5
In the earlier meeting the Patriots got a kickoff return for a touchdown and Gronkowski snagged two touchdowns. The Pats also got themselves a safety. Gronk is out today which hurts redzone offense and I really am not counting on special teams TD’s or safeties. For the most part Brady had an average day while Sanchez had a career day and he still lost. The Patriots have a banged up offensive line and this could be a game the Jets steal at home, but I just don’t trust this team at all. New England now has a really good cornerback in Talib from Tampa and the Jets just do not have the skilled receivers to move the ball up and down the field. I don’t see this game being high scoring at all. Take the Under.

TCU +7.5 over Texas
Both teams are very young with a lot of first time starters. The only thing that impresses me about either team is the TCU Defense which has so many young faces, but still are playing very well. The real key to this game lies with a man who wont be on the field playing and that is head coach Gary Patterson. This guy is a football genius that will find away to get to the Texas Quarterback. The Longhorns are so thin at linebacker and have defensive line issues that I think TCU will be able to move the ball even with a young QB. Trevone Boykin has proven he can pickup big road wins. This should be a great game and I think it comes down to the wire. Take TCU.