11-25-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE BLEZOW


LOCK: Colts (Locks 3-8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 12's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy

Our record inside the 'Prop Shop' stands at 24-20 on the season entering Week 12. Take a look at Sean's four best prop bets on Sunday:

Most passing yards

Carson Palmer vs. Andy Dalton

The Raiders have taken to airing it out on offense in recent weeks, with Carson Palmer throwing for over 300 yards in three consecutive games. That trend should continue on Sunday, as this is still a team that lacks a reliable ground game in the absence of Darren McFadden.

Oakland gave up 38 points in last week's loss to the Saints, but did hold Drew Brees to just 219 passing yards. I expect to see the Raiders 'D' play it safe for much of this one, dropping back in coverage and not allowing Andy Dalton to bomb away to A.J. Green. It's their only chance of staying close in this contest.

Take: Palmer

Jake Locker vs. Chad Henne

Chad Henne absolutely lit up a quality Texans defense last week, so the knee-jerk reaction is to back him in this matchup on Sunday. I don't think it's the correct decision, though, as the veteran QB has been bounced around the league for a reason.

The Titans are coming off their bye week, meaning oft-injured sophomore QB Jake Locker has had some extra time to get re-acclimated with his receiving corps. Note that Locker does have a 378-yard passing day to his credit this season, and should shine against a banged-up Jaguars secondary.

Take: Locker

Most rushing yards

C.J. Spiller vs. Vick Ballard

Fred Jackson is expected to return from injury on Sunday, but that doesn't mean C.J. Spiller will be eliminated from the Bills game plan. I expect Spiller to shine in this favorable matchup against the Colts. Gaining 6.6 yards per rush on the season, there's no question,Spiller is the Bills biggest home run threat out of the backfield right now.

Vick Ballard has been getting the bulk of the carries in the Colts RB platoon, but I won't be surprised if veteran Donald Brown earns a few extra looks against a physical Bills front line on Sunday.

Take: Spiller

Most pass receptions

Sidney Rice vs. Brian Hartline

I really like the way Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has evolved in his rookie season. He's looking down the field a lot more often recently, and Sidney Rice has benefited from Wilson's growth with 12 catches in the last three games. With the Dolphins secondary struggling, we can expect Rice to find plenty of operating room on Sunday.

It's been feast-or-famine for Brian Hartline this season. Off back-to-back eight-catch games, he hauled in only four last Thursday in Buffalo. That was the fourth time in the last six games he's been held to four catches or less.

Take: Rice

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 12

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 12's action.

Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5, 49.5)

The Bengals have outscored their last two opponents by a combined 40 points while posting back-to-back victories. That’s bad news for the Oakland Raiders, who have allowed an average of 45.0 points in dropping three straight games. Raiders RB Darren McFadden (ankle) is running at practice and is questionable. Backup RB Mike Goodson (ankle) is further away from returning. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1, 34)

The Pittsburgh Steelers' QB carousel will take another turn on Sunday when veteran Charlie Batch makes the start versus the host Cleveland Browns. The 37-year-old Batch will look to improve upon the performance of fellow veteran Byron Leftwich, who scored a rushing touchdown - and promptly broke a rib - in a 13-10 loss to Baltimore last Sunday. Batch will need to be on alert against a tenacious Browns defense, which recorded a season-high seven sacks of Tony Romo last week. Pittsburgh has won four in a row and 21 of 23 versus Cleveland.

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-3, 50.5)

Buffalo is one of five AFC teams entering the weekend at 4-6, two games behind the wild card leaders and clinging to some hope that it can make up the ground over the last six weeks. The Bills expect to have RB Fred Jackson back from a concussion on Sunday but may still start C.J. Spiller, who piled up 130 yards from scrimmage in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins last week. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts had their winning streak come to an end in embarrassing fashion at New England last Sunday. Luck had some rookie stumbles against New England, throwing three interceptions - two of which were returned for touchdowns. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (3.5, 44.5)

Chad Henne nearly led the Jaguars to the season’s biggest upset last week when Jacksonville fell at Houston. More than a two-touchdown underdog, the Jags led the powerhouse Texans by 14 with 12 minutes to play but they fell apart down the stretch dropping a 43-37 decision. The Titans had a week off after dismantling Miami 37-3 in their most complete performance of the season. Tennessee has quietly won three of its last five games despite ranking 31st in scoring defense (31.1). Jacksonville has failed to cover in its last five home games.

Denver at Kansas City (10, 44)

Denver will need to rely more on Peyton Manning as RB Willis McGahee landed on injured reserve after suffering a torn MCL in his right knee during last week's 30-23 triumph over San Diego. The Broncos, who own a three-game lead over the Chargers in the division, haven't lost since dropping a 31-21 decision at New England on Oct. 7. Kansas City has averaged 12 points per game during its seven-game losing skid and has scored more than 20 only twice this season. Former Bronco Brady Quinn is likely to get the start at QB over Matt Cassel. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Minnesota at Chicago (-6.5)

Jay Cutler (concussion) is hoping to return Sunday when Chicago hosts the Minnesota Vikings in a pivotal NFC North matchup. The Vikings have their own injury issues, with WR Percy Harvin a question mark as he struggles with an ankle injury. Minnesota is coming off a Week 11 bye after handling the Detroit Lions 34-24 a week earlier behind 171 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1, 50)

The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina in overtime. Bucs RB Doug Martin has totaled 592 yards of offense and has amassed five touchdowns over the past four games. Tampa Bay has played over the total in its last seven games overall.

Seattle at Miami (2.5, 37.5)

The Dolphins are swimming in the wrong direction. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has been erratic, throwing five interceptions in the last two games. Reggie Bush has rushed for just 41 yards in that same span, but will face his former Southern California coach in Pete Carroll on Sunday. Seattle’s opportunistic defense is yielding just 196.2 passing yards per contest, good enough for third-best in the league. The Seahawks will be well rested coming off their bye week and are looking for a third straight win. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall.

Baltimore at San Diego (-1, 47)

Ravens defensive star Ed Reed was initially suspended for one game following his third helmet-to-helmet hit on a defenseless player, but the eight-time Pro Bowl safety won his appeal and will instead be fined $50,000 and be eligible to play Sunday. The Chargers have dropped five of their last six games. Quarterback Philip Rivers has tossed a league-high 14 interceptions and hasn’t received much support from the running game this season. Running back Ryan Mathews averaged just 3.1 yards on 15 carries in last week’s loss to Denver. The Chargers have played over the total in six of their last seven overall.

San Francisco at New Orleans (PICK, 48.5)

Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against visiting New Orleans. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. But he'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league. Saints RB Darren Sproles (hand) has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks of action. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall.

St. Louis at Arizona (-1, 37)

The Cardinals will be looking to snap a six-game slide when they host the St. Louis Rams. The Rams were done in by three turnovers in a 27-13 loss to the Jets last week and have given the ball away eight times while going winless in their last five. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt has yet to name a starter at QB for this week but will likely stick with Ryan Lindley after yanking John Skelton in the second quarter against the Falcons last week. These teams have played under the total eight times in their last nine meetings.

Green Bay at New York Giants (-2.5, 50.5)

After a bit of a slow start, Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 QB rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with CB Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and LB Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight and may be without RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot). These teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

Carolina at Philadelphia (1, 41)

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. With the outcome of last Sunday's game against the Redskins no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and QB Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Eagles have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 12
by Jason Logan

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 12:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 39.5)

Vikings’ sheltered road woes vs. Windy City weather

Forget about if Jay Cutler is ready to go or not – the one thing that should concern Vikings backers is the fact that this game is outside and on the road. Minnesota hasn’t been able to get the job done away from home this season, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

Minnesota has faced the elements only twice this year, losing outside at Washington and Seattle. The forecast for Soldier Field isn’t calling for sub-zero temperatures (low 40s) but the wind will be howling and the natural grass footing won’t be as fast as the Metrodome’s rug.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 50)

Falcons’ rush defense vs. Buccaneers’ RB Doug Martin

Things are starting to unravel for the Falcons, who nearly got handed their second defeat of the season against Arizona last week. Atlanta’s biggest weakness is its inability to slow down the run, ranking 26th versus the rush (130.5 yards against per game).

The Cardinals rumbled for 137 yards on 26 carries (over five yards per carry) and now the Falcons face Tampa Bay’s battering ram, Doug Martin. Martin is third in the NFL in rushing with 1,000 yards and has found paydirt eight times this season. Over the past four games, he’s totaled 592 yards and five touchdowns.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (Pick, 48.5)

Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Saints’ weakness to dual-threat QBs

New Orleans is a much different team than the one that lost to Washington and Carolina right out of the gate this season. However, the Saints did struggle with dual-threat pivots Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton in those games, allowing the QBs to pick up some big gains when plays broke down. New Orleans even let Michael Vick do some damage with his legs in a win over the Eagles in Week 9.

San Francisco has the hottest dual-threat QB in the league right now in Kaepernick. Since Alex Smith went down with a concussion, the second-year man out of Nevada has thrown for 360 yards and two TDs while displaying his crazy legs in the crunch. Even with Smith on the mend, the 49ers are siding with Kaepernick against the Saints Sunday.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1, 41)

Panthers’ play for Rivera vs. Eagles’ tank for Reid

One look at the spread for this one tells you just how much faith oddsmakers have in the Eagles. It’s about as much faith as Philadelphia has in head coach Andy Reid right now. Reid’s seat is an inferno and a loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football would burn that mother to the ground. The local media is all over the Walrus for playing his starters last week when the game was long out of reach, leading to LeSean McCoy’s concussion in the fourth quarter. Don’t expect Andy’s guys to play for him in any quarter Monday.

Despite their 2-8 record, the Panthers have been a tough out for opponents this season. Carolina has come close to some big upsets, getting outscored by just under six points per game, and has suffered six losses by six or fewer points this season. Rivera is expected to stick out the rest of the season and will rally his troops for a big national TV stage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info plays

7* kansas city chiefs +11.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hilton Contest Picks by the Leaders
MALU MAN - W37 L17 T1 LW 5-0
Week 12 Picks: HOU JAX MIN ATL GB

THERE WILL BE BLOOD - W37 L17 T1 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: PIT TEN ATL STL NYG

KURLY - W36 L17 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: HOU NE TEN ATL NYG

MAKIN DOUGH: W36 L17 T2 LW 5-0
Week 12 Picks: ATL MIA SD ARI NYG

AL SR: W36 L18 T1 LW 5-0
Week 12 Picks: DET KC SD NYG CAR

MIKE BOYD #1: W36 L18 T1 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: HOU NE ATL SEA STL

JAY STONES: W36 L18 T1 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: OAK TEN MIN SD NYG

CARDIFF GIANT: W36 L18 T1 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: CLE BUF TEN MIA STL

PARTNERS: W36 L19 T0 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: TEN TB BAL NO NYG

BITTERBATTER & JELL: W36 L19 T0 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: IND JAX MIA SD NYG

HEISENBERG: W36 L19 T0 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: DET WAS MIN ATL CAR

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hilton Contest Picks
Gb 222

no 197

atl 173

sea 168

tb 164

ten 163

sd 154

ind 152

buf 137

hou 131

bal 130

stl 125

pit 115

was 112

mia 111

nyg 109

min 105

car 103

kc 102

ne 100

sf 96

den 95

oak 92

cle 88

cin 81

jax 74

det 71

dal 64

chi 62

nyj 49

ari 46

phi 44

record last week

4-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 12 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 2-1 (.667)
ATS: 1-2 (.333)
ATS Vary Units: 2-8 (.200)
Over/Under: 2-1 (.667)
Over/Under Vary Units: 10-1 (.909)

Season
Straight Up: 96-58 (.623)
ATS: 70-89 (.440)
ATS Vary Units: 309-502 (.381)
Over/Under: 86-73 (.541)
Over/Under Vary Units: 343-257 (.572)

Sunday, November 25, 2012
CHICAGO 25, Minnesota 19
CINCINNATI 33, Oakland 21
Pittsburgh 20, CLEVELAND 13
INDIANAPOLIS 29, Buffalo 24
Denver 32, KANSAS CITY 12
Seattle 21, MIAMI 14
TAMPA BAY 28, Atlanta 27
Tennessee 28, JACKSONVILLE 22
Baltimore 28, SAN DIEGO 19
ARIZONA 21, St. Louis 14
San Francisco vs. NEW ORLEANS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Green Bay 28, N.Y. GIANTS 26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Predictions
Kevin

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS +1 (-107)
(Note: I'm risking 2.14 units to win 2.00 units)
The San Francisco 49ers will head into New Orleans with a 7-2-1 record (3-1 on the road) and a new quarterback under center. With QB Alex Smith out the 49ers turned to young back up Colin Kaepernick who beat the Bears 32-7 on Monday night. Kaepernick is most likely to start on Sunday despite Smith being clearing to play after concussion testing. This will be the 49er's biggest test on the road since their Week 1 win in Green Bay. Other road wins came against the Jets and Cardinals, while they lost by 11 points to Minnesota as 6.5 point favorites. The New Orleans Saints are 5-5 on the year (3-2 at home) and are still looking to make the playoffs after winning 5 of their last 6 games and 3 straight. New Orleans has impressed me scoring 28+ points in their 5 wins, with their lone loss coming @Denver. New Orleans has one of the top rated offenses, while the 49ers have one of the leagues best defenses. I give the edge here to Drew Brees and the Saints offense in the Superdome. The Saints are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs a team with a winning record, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. The 49ers beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs by 4 points, but Drew Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers. With this meeting indoors in New Orleans I like the Saints to continue to roll with a big win over one of the NFC's best.

2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - BRONCOS -9.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)
The line is listed at -10 in most places, but I've bought it to -9.5 at a good price (-120).
This is going to be a big mismatch in Kansas City this week and I think the final score will show that. The Broncos are 7-3 on the year (3-2 on the road) and have won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Denver has scored 30+ points in each of their last 5 games and in all 7 games they've won this year. With the Chiefs giving up 28.4 papg I think it is very likely that this Peyton Manning led offense will put up at least 28 points. Kansas City is 1-9 on the year and 0-5 at home. They've lost 7 straight games and they've scored 16 or fewer points in 6 straight games. Denver's defense, led by Von Miller, is ranked 5th in the NFL and are allowing 21.2 papg. Given that KC has struggled to score points against some lower ranked defenses (Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati) I think they will have another unproductive afternoon. Note that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, 5-2 in their last 7 divisional games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in KC. The Broncos lost to Kansas City last year, so I expect them not to take this game for granted. All signs point to a beat down in Kansas City and I really like Denver at with a single digit line at 9.5. If you can't get Denver -9.5 at -120 or better anymore take them -10.

2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants - OVER 49.5 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.16 units to win 2.00 units)
This may be the best game on the schedule as the 7-3 Green Bay Packers head into New York to take on the 6-4 defending Super Bowl Champions Giants. This will be a rematch of last year's playoff game where the Giants went into Green Bay as 8 point underdogs and beat Green Bay by 17 points. The final score of that one was 37-20. Their other two meetings over the past 3 years had final scores of 38-35 and 45-17, and the OVER is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. The Packers have won 5 straight games and have scored 24+ points in each of those, and scoring 30 points in 3 of the 5. The Giants had a much needed bye week after dropping two straight to AFC opponents. Before that the Giants had won 4 straight scoring 26+ points in each of the 4 games. Both the Packers and Giants are averaging just over 26 points per game this year, while the Giants are giving up 21.6 papg and the Packers are giving up 20.7 papg. The OVER is 5-1 in the Packers last 6 games vs a team with a winning record, 11-4 in their last 15 vs NFC opponents, and 15-6 in their last 21 games overall. Neither team's defense has been impressive this year, and the Packers will be without their star defensive player Clay Matthews. We know how good both QBs are and I expect that to be on display Sunday night in a high scoring shootout type game. Take the OVER.

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = DOLPHINS +9 and BENGALS -1.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)
--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 7 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". If you don't understand just email me with any questions.
Although we aren't crossing over the key number of 3 on the Dolphins with this teaser, I feel that this is still a +EV wager with the Dolphins listed at +3 (-115) right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this at +2.5 come game time, and given that we have a low total set in this game at 37.5 I think there is a very good chance the Dolphins cover their leg of the teaser. The Seahawks are 6-4 on the year, but just 1-4 on the road. Road losses have come against Detroit, San Francisco, St Louis, and Arizona, while their lone road win is against Carolina. The Dolphins are 4-6 on the year and 2-2 at home, although I think they are a bit better of a team than their record indicates. They've lost three straight games, but had chances to win two of those, and two of their other losses came in overtime by a FG. They've only loss by 8+ points twice this season. Take note that the Seahawks are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 road games, and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. Seattle is a different team on the road, while the Dolphins aren't getting enough respect in this one. Take the Dolphins in the 1st leg of the teaser. In the second leg of the teaser we will cross over 7 and 3 as we tease the Bengals from -7.5 to -1.5. The 5-5 Bengals are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the AFC right now, and host the 3-7 Raiders who have failed to meet expectations this season. Oakland is just 1-4 on the road this year and have lost three straight games by double digits. The Bengals have won two straight, including a big 31-13 victory over the Giants at home two weekend's ago and a 28-6 victory in KC last weekend. The Bengals are averaging 4 more ppg than the Raiders, and are giving up over 8 less papg. Note that the Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs AFC opponents, while the Bengals are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals cover the spread against Oakland, but I think the best play is to put them in a teaser like we've done.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/25/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 590-190 (.756)
ATS: 227-256 (.470)
ATS Vary Units: 903-1135 (.443)
Over/Under: 76-55 (.580)
Over/Under Vary Units: 115-84 (.578)

DIRECTV Classic
at Anaheim Convention Center Arena, Anaheim, CA
Drexel 67, Rice 59
Xavier 73, Drake 67
Saint Mary's 68, Georgia Tech 57

Championship
California 71, Pacific 59

Hoops for Hope Classic
Round Robin at Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 70, Rider 69

Final Round at Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Smu 61, Missouri State 57
South Carolina 64, Ualr 63

Nation of Coaches Classic
Round Robin at Wilmington, NC
UNC WILMINGTON 67, Hampton 58

Old Spice Classic
at HP Fieldhouse, Lake Buena Vista, FL
Vanderbilt 66, Utep 54
Clemson 68, Marist 53
West Virginia 67, Oklahoma 63

Championship
Gonzaga 77, Davidson 68

Spartan Showcase
Round Robin at East Lansing, MI
MICHIGAN STATE 80, UL Lafayette 50

Non-Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 68, Lamar 67
AUBURN 65, Rhode Island 58
BOSTON COLLEGE 76, Bryant 58
COLORADO 74, Air Force 55
CONNECTICUT 71, Stony Brook 55
Houston 72, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 64
ILLINOIS 74, Gardner-Webb 55
INDIANA 81, Ball State 52
INDIANA STATE 74, High Point 62
LA SALLE 73, Villanova 71
Lehigh 78, SACRED HEART 68
Long Beach State 66, FRESNO STATE 64
MERCER 68, Furman 52
NEW MEXICO 83, Portland 54
OKLAHOMA STATE 83, Portland State 64
OREGON STATE 89, Montana State 65
Rutgers 77, UNC GREENSBORO 71
San Diego State 63, USC 54
SETON HALL 71, Saint Peter's 50
Siena 63, MAINE 60
SYRACUSE 86, Colgate 52
TEMPLE 79, Delaware 67
TROY 72, Alabama State 56
UCLA 72, Cal Poly 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/25/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 120-63 (.656)
ATS: 82-102 (.446)
ATS Vary Units: 299-308 (.493)
Over/Under: 99-87 (.532)
Over/Under Vary Units: 209-166 (.557)

San Antonio 103, TORONTO 93
NEW YORK 102, Detroit 89
BROOKLYN 99, Portland 96
PHILADELPHIA 99, Phoenix 93
Boston 90, ORLANDO 88
DENVER 103, New Orleans 93

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 943-697 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play (47-23 College run, NFL Year 44-23) Sun Seahawks -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

Calgary at Toronto

The Stampeders look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 road games. Calgary is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (11/22)


Game 291-292: Calgary at Toronto (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 119.616; Toronto 113.001
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 1 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Write-Up

Week 22

100th Grey Cup, Toronto
Calgary (14-6) @ Toronto (11-9)-- Calgary/Toronto both posted road upsets in conference finals last week, meet in 100th Grey Cup in Rogers Centre, making it an Argonaut home game. Toronto won both series meetings this year, 39-36 (+3.5) here way back in Week 2, then 22-14 (+4.5) in Alberta six weeks later, which was low point of Stampeders’ season. Since then, Calgary won 11 of 13 games; they’ve covered seven of last nine on road, though they’re 0-4-1 vs spread in last five visits here. Argos were 7-9 at one point but won last four games, scoring 35.8 ppg; four of their last five games went over total, as did eight of last nine Calgary games. Stamps scored 36.2 ppg during their current six-game win streak; overall, 20 of their last 28 road tilts went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 22

100th Grey Cup: What bettors need to know

Calgary vs. Toronto (+1.5, 55.5)
Time: 6 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre, Toronto

THE LINE: Most shops opened Toronto at +1.5 or +2. Several books moved them to +2.5 at mid-week but bettors have moved the line back down to where it opened. The early money was on the over and that number moved up a point to 55.5 with some shops offering it at 56 as of Saturday.

KEY STAT: Toronto has won and covered the past five meetings with Calgary, including two this season. The Argos were underdogs all five times.

TORONTO: The Argos have won and covered their last four games. They have the most explosive player in the CFL this year, Chad Owens, who was the leading returner and receiver in the CFL this year. Owens is coming off a 207-yard receiving performance against Montreal. QB Ricky Ray is starting in his fourth Grey Cup and has been winning lately more with efficiency than flash. He had the highest completion percentage in the CFL this year and has only thrown two picks in his last seven games. Toronto is middle of the pack statistically on defense, but what they lack in numbers, they make up for in physicality. They now face the tough task of trying to slow CFL-leading rusher, Jon Cornish.

CALGARY: The Stampeders are the hottest team right now with six straight victories (4-1-1 ATS) and all six games played over the total. The Stamps scored at least 32 in each one despite starting two different guys at QB over the past few games. Kevin Glenn will start in his first Grey Cup after Drew Tate broke his forearm two games ago. Glenn will have the help of Cornish, who rushed for over 100 yards in each of Calgary’s first two playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Toronto had slow starts in both of its postseason outings so far, falling to quick 7-0 deficits both times.

2. Turnovers will likely be huge between these two evenly matched teams. Toronto lost two fumbles last game and has three in the playoffs. Calgary has just one fumble through two playoff games.

3. Toronto was just 4-6 ATS at home this season. Calgary was 7-3 ATS on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Write-Up

Sunday, November 25

Hot Teams
-- Spurs won six of last eight games (5-2 as AF).
-- Detroit is 3-2 in last five games after an 0-8 start (4-4 as AU). Knicks won/covered all four home games (3-0 as HF).
-- Nets won six of last eight games (2-1-2 as HF). Portland won four of its last five games (2-3 as AU).
-- Orlando won four of six home games (1-2 as HU).
-- Denver won/covered last three games (3-1 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost eight of last ten games (0-2 as HU).
-- Suns lost four of five road games (0-4 as AU). 76ers are 3-4 in their last seven games (3-3 as HF, three straight covers as HF).
-- Celtics lost three of their last five games (1-2 as AF).
-- Hornets lost last six games, last two in OT (4-1 as road dog).

Totals
-- Four of last five San Antonio games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Portland's away games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Phoenix games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Orlando games. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Celtic games.
-- Six of last seven New Orleans games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Sunday, November 25

Trend Report

1:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. TORONTO
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
San Antonio is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW YORK
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New York
Detroit is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York's last 19 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games

3:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. BROOKLYN
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Brooklyn is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Brooklyn's last 16 games when playing at home against Portland

6:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. PHILADELPHIA
Phoenix is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
BOSTON vs. ORLANDO
Boston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Orlando's last 17 games when playing at home against Boston
Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

8:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
New Orleans is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Write-Up

Sunday, November 25

-- Marist lost by 43 Thursday but stunned Vandy 50-33 next day; Red Foxes are 2-3, beating Columbia team that beat Villanova. MAAC road underdogs are 5-12, 3-3 if getting double digits. Clemson made 44% of 3's in 3-1 start, losing only to Gonzaga; Tigers have 11 frosh/sophs out of 13 kids, very young team.
-- UTEP lost its last three games, scoring 53.3 ppg; teams made 49.2% of 3's against Miners in 1-3 start. Vanderbilt scored 47.7 ppg in losing last three games, including 50-33 to Marist Friday; they're shooting 28% from arc, 64% from line and aren't getting to line nearly enough. C-USA road teams are 10-15 against the spread this season.
-- 3-1 Oklahoma held all its opponents to 61 or less points; Sooners are playing their bench 41% of time, searching for combos that work. West Virginia's inexperienced team is 1-2, losing to both teams in final of this event; WVU forces turnovers on 27% of possessions but in halfcourt they're useless, shooting 25% from arc, 62.5% from line.
-- Gonzaga is 5-0, with one win by less than 25 points; three of its five opponents are ranked #82 or better. Davidson was up at New Mexico by 16, lost that game, but beat Vandy/WV to get to final here. Wildcats are in top 25 in country in experience. SoCon road underdogs of 15 or less points are 4-8. WCC road favorites are 3-4.

-- Drexel is huge flop, picked to win CAA but off to 1-4 start, with only win by hoop over Penn; Dragons have two guys out hurt, so depth is an issue, as it is for transfer-laden Rice, which lost first two games here by 18-11 points. Owls lost to a D-2 team by 13, are 0-3 vs D-I teams, with losses by 14-18-11 points.
-- Xavier has five new starters, doesn't sub much; they're shooting 63% inside arc, #1 in country, beat Butler by 15, rexel by 4/ Drake split first four games, losing by 6 at Detroit, by 3 to Cal, two pretty good teams; Bulldogs start two juniors, three seniors, so they're experienced. MVC road underdogs are 10-5 vs spread. A-16 road favorites are 9-6.
-- Georgia Tech has young team that struggles to score, making 16.4% from arc in 3-1 start, but Tulane is best team they've beaten. Udofia is only senior in rotation; his 3-11 from arc leads team. St Mary's got beat by Pacific Friday, after allowing 62.7 ppg in first three D-I wins. ACC underdogs are 6-4 against the spread.
-- Pacific is 2-0 vs top 100 teams, 0-2 vs teams not in top 100, hard to figure; Tigers have all five starters back from LY, but they were 11-19- this is Thomason's last year as coach. Pacific played lot of conference tourneys on this floor, won their share. Cal has an NBA guard (Crabbe); only one of their five wins (5-0) was by less than 11 points.

-- Villanova beat LaSalle the last 10 years, but in OT LY, by 3 the year before; Wildcats beat Purdue in OT, getting gift flagrant foul call to help force OT, then lost next two games, including hideous loss to Columbia (75-57). Explorers followed up good win over Delaware with ugly loss to Central Connecticut. Big East underdogs are 6-7 vs spread.
-- Temple hasn't played in eight days, winning its first two games by 14 points each (Kent State/Rice); Owls beat Delaware 66-63 LY, so they'll take Blue Hens seriously. Delaware has played #10 schedule in country so far, losing two games in NYC by 3-26 to KState-Pitt, but they also have a win at Virginia. CAA road underdogs of 12 or less points: 10-8.
-- Long Beach State lost four starters from LY but overscheduled again; they're 0-3 vs D-I teams, losing by 18 at USC, then getting crushed by UNC/Arizona. 49ers are turning ball over 23% of time. Fresno State won last three games after losing by hoop at Texas, with 66-61 win against Pacific, which looks better now. Bulldogs made 40.3% of shots behind arc in their first four games.
-- USC lost two of three games in Maui, getting crushed by Illinois (was down 31 at half), then beat Texas in OT, lost to Marquette by 8; they're athletic but have 10 transfers, so takes time to develop chemistry. San Diego State won by 16 at Missouri State after losing to Syracuse in wind on battleship. Aztecs beat USC 56-54 last year.
-- St Peter's won at Rutgers/Cornell, then somehow lost at Binghamton, so not sure what to make of team that shoots 52% from foul line- they lost to Seton Hall last 10 years by 13-point average, but it was only nine points LY. Pirates are 4-1, losing to Washington in OT after being down 16 at half; none of teams they've beaten are ranked in top 240.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Write-Up

Week 12

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Raiders (4-6) @ Bengals (5-5)—Carson Palmer was going to retire rather than play for Bengals; they finally traded him to Oakland, where he’s thrown five pick-6’s in little over a year; Raiders hadn’t thrown any from 2006-10. Oakland defense has fallen apart, giving up 45 ppg in last three games (16 TDs on last 36 drives); they’ve turned ball over 7 times in those games (-6), leading to two opponent TDs and field position deficits of 12-8-10 yards. Raiders are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-31-3-35 points, with only win at lowly Chiefs. In opponents’ last 10 red zone drives, they’ve allowed eight TDs and a FG. Resurgent Bengals allowed only one TD (23 drives) in winning last two games; they’re 2-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-18 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9 vs spread, 3-5 at home; AFC West underdogs are 5-11, 3-7 at home. Last five Oakland games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under.

Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)—37-year old #3 QB Batch gets nod for Pitt here; they’re working out backups (former Patriot Hoyer/former Eagle Kafka) as I type this; Steelers have dominated series lately, but they’ve scored only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games, averaging 4.7/4.2 ypa. Last time Pitt had positive turnover ratio was Week 4, but they’re defending well, allowing 6 or less 2nd half points in each of last five games. Browns got hosed last week at Dallas, getting flagged 12 times for 129 yards, giving Pokes 10 first downs, just on penalties; key call on OT fumble also went Dallas’ way. Cleveland is 2-3 at home, 3-2 as home dogs; since ’07, they’re 14-13 as home dogs. Steelers are 2-3 on road, 1-2 as road favorites; since ’06, they’re 13-21 as road faves, 7-14 in division games. Home sides are 3-2 vs spread in AFC North games. Last five Pittsburgh games, last five Brown games stayed under total.

Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)—Indy was snapped back to reality by 59-24 beating at Foxboro last week, when Patriots scored three TDs on defense/STs; loss snapped 4-game win streak that has Colts as playoff contender- they’re 4-1 at home, but wins are by 3-4-3-3 points, so they’re winning by fine margin (one win in regulation by more than 4 points). Buffalo had extra time to rest/prep after Thursday night win over Miami, just their second in last seven games; Bills are 2-3 as road underdogs this year (4-8-1 in last 13), losing away games this year by 20-42-12-6 points, with wins at Browns/Cardinals. Colts are letting Luck be more aggressive on first down; seven of their last nine plays that gained 20+ yards came on first down (20 of previous 40 had come on 1st down). AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 4-1 at home; AFC East underdogs are 7-5, 2-1 on road. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)—Bad teams have very little home field edge, especially late in season; lot of no-shows at their games. Hard to muster any enthusiasm at all for woeful KC, which benched QB Cassel for Notre Dame alum Quinn last week; Chiefs lost last seven games, with four of last five by 10+ points- they’re 0-5 at home this year, 1-3 as home underdogs (were 6-0 as home dogs in ’10-’11), losing by 16-17-3-10-22 points at Arrowhead. Denver won its last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five; they won last three road games by 11-8-22 points, but lost of RB McGahee (knee/leg) sets them back some. Chiefs have only 12 takeaways in 10 games, with -19 turnover ratio, as brooms ready to sweep front office, coaches out of power after season. Bronco defense is making Manning’s life easier; Broncos’ last six TDs were on drives of less than 60 yards. Five of last six Denver games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 1-7 in AFC games.

Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)—Not often teams lose when they have +2 turnover ratio, but Jax has it done it twice this year, losing both times in OT, at Oakland/Houston. Jaguars are 5-0 vs spread on road, 0-5 at home, with all five home losses by 17+ points (average home score, 31-9); they’re better off right now with more veteran Henne at QB- he passed for 372 yards in last week’s OT loss in Houston, averaging 10.1 ypa. Tennessee’s 80+ year old owner Adams read team/coaches riot act after 51-20 home loss in Week 9; team responded with pre-bye 37-3 win at contending Miami; Titans won last two road games, scoring 35-37 points, after losing first three by average score of 35-10. Tennessee is 0-1 as favorite this year; since ’09, they’re 2-4 as road favorites. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South games; home underdogs are 0-2. Over is 5-3 in last eight Tennessee games, 4-2 in last six Jaguar games.

Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)—In six-game winning streak from Weeks 3-9, Chicago scored 8 TDs on defense/special teams, masking a struggling offense; now that Cutler is hurt, offense has been exposed, scoring one TD on 23 drives in losing last two games- backup QB Campbell was beaten like a piñata at Candlestick Monday, sacked six times. After being +16 in turnovers first half of season, they’ve been -2 in each of last two games- teams that are -2 or worse in turnovers are 11-60 SU this year. Vikings lost their last two post-bye games 29-10/45-7; they’re 1-3 on road this year, with only win 20-13 at Detroit, when they didn’t score offensive TD but had two on special teams. Short week for Bears, who haven’t been same team since bye week (4-1 vs spread before bye, 1-4 after). Home teams are 2-4 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Four of last five Viking games, four of last six Chicago games went over the total.

Falcons (9-1) @ Buccaneers (6-4)—Red-hot Tampa Bay (won/covered last four games) finding ways to win; they were down 10 with 5:00 left at Charlotte last week, won in OT- they had TDs on defense/special teams week before vs Chargers. Bucs make opponent earn their points; 14 of last 16 TDs they allowed were on drives of 72+ yards, and other two were 64-65 yards- they haven’t beaten themselves, which is what Falcon s tried to do last week, turning ball over six times but somehow surviving at home vs Arizona. Falcons have run ball only 42 times for 104 yards in last two games, after averaging 98.5 yards on ground in first eight games. Six of last seven Tampa Bay games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Last week, Ryan was first NFL QB since 1967 to throw five INTs, no TDs in a win; good news is that Bart Starr was that QB, and Packers won SB that year. Good news for Atlanta; they’re 4-0 outdoors, with average score, 30-15.

Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)—Couple of rookie QBs figure to combine for low scoring game, right? In Miami’s last two games, they have zero plays of 20+ yards, after having 32 in first eight games; league-wide, teams average 4+ explosive plays/game. Dolphins had three extra days to prep after tough loss at Miami (didn’t allow offensive TD); they’re 2-2 at home, scoring 17-3 points in last two home tilts. Long road trip for Seattle; they’re 1-4 on road (0-2 as favorite), with only win 16-12 at Carolina- last time they covered as road favorite was 2008 at St Louis. Over last 21 years, Seattle is 5-17 vs spread (4-5 as favorite) in its post-bye games, though they covered last two (lost 6-3, +3.5 LY). Since ’07, Miami is 7-13 as home underdog, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 7-6, 2-1 at home. Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games, 5-0-1 last six Dolphin games.


Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)—Sandwich game for Baltimore, which barely escaped Pittsburgh with 13-10 win Sunday night even though Leftwich played end of game with broken ribs; they play Steelers at home next week. Ravens won last three games but covered only twice in last eight; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-2 as road favorites- they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 games as road favorite, and scored 13 or less points in three of last four away games. Norv Turner regime is on life support after last week’s loss at Denver, though string of winnable games in December keeps Wild Card in sight; Chargers lost five of last six games- they’re 2-2 at home, beating Titans/Chiefs. Bolts are 4-6 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games; since 2004, they’re 5-2 as home underdogs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-11 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC North favorites are 4-9, 1-4 on road. Six of last seven San Diego games went over total.

49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)—Short week plus travel for SF, but Niners pummeled Chicago Monday night, holding Bears to 143 yards after Rams put 458 up on them week before; 49ers are 3-1 on road, winning by 8-34-21 points, with only loss in Minnesota’s dome (1-4 vs spread in last five dome games). SF is 2-1 as road favorite this year. Brees has Saints on 5-1 roll after 0-4 start; now they get chance to avenge loss to 49ers in LY’s playoffs, with Kaepernick making first NFL road start. Saints won three in row, five of last six games; they’ve covered seven of last eight, winning last three home games while scoring 31-28-31 points. 49ers don’t beat themselves; they haven’t turned ball over in last three games, but defense isn’t forcing turnovers like they did LY (+28 LY, +4 this year). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 as favorites, 5-4 on road. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 0-2 at home. Six of last nine 49er games stayed under total; seven of ten Saint games went over.

Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)—Only games Rams won came vs two rookie QB’s (Seattle/Washington) and a lame QB (Arizona); they sacked Kolb nine times in 17-3 (+2) win back in Week 5, but they haven’t won (0-4-1) since, in large part because they haven’t forced one single turnover in last five games (-8) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Teams with inferior talent cannot win with negative turnover ratios. Cardinals lost last six games after 4-0 start; they somehow lost in Atlanta last week despite a +5 turnover ratio- they picked Ryan off five times, started five of 15 drives in Falcon territory and still scored only 19 points. Rams are one of two NFL teams (Browns) without road win; they’re 3-2 as road underdogs. Arizona is 3-2 at home, scoring 16-3 points in losing last two (one TD on last 23 home drives). Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four St Louis games went over; five of last six Cardinal games stayed under.

Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)— Giants are 4-0 when game goes over total, 2-4 when it stays under. Last two Super Bowl winners meet; odd thing, they were both #6 seed in NFC when they became champs. Green Bay won last five games this year, forcing 14 turnovers (+8) after being -1 (5 turnovers) in first five games; Pack has chance to avenge home playoff loss to Big Blue LY- they’re 3-2 on road, but all three wins came in domes- they lost their only outdoor road game, 14-12 at Seattle on a Monday night with bogus last play with replacement refs. Giants scored 34.8 ppg in winning last four post-bye games; they’re 3-1 at home, 1-3 as home favorites, with wins by 7-14-4 points and loss to Steelers. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread, 1-4 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Five of last seven Green Bay games, three of four Giant home games went over total.

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)—Not much to choose from here, with both head coaches possible lame ducks, but you have underdog with big edge under center (Newton over Foles). Carolina lost seven of last eight games, blowing 10-point lead with 5:00 left at home last week; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-1-2 points, with only win in last road game, 21-13 at Washington. Visitor covered Carolina’s last eight games. Eagles lost last six games, giving up 31.8 ppg in losing all four games since bye, when they fired their DC. Shanahan had been 3-21-1 as home favorite before his Skins walloped Philly 31-6 last week, that’s how far Eagles have fallen, in what are obviously Reid’s last weeks running club. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 9-1 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Four of five Eagle home games went over the total. National TV audience should extract better effort than these teams have been producing lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

Falcons at Bucs: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 50.5)

If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South on Sunday. After winning its first eight games of the campaign, Atlanta dropped a four-point decision at New Orleans on Nov. 11, ending its hopes of an undefeated season. The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona.

Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit with 11 points in the final 4:03 of the fourth quarter and a touchdown pass from Josh Freeman to Dallas Clark just 4:20 into overtime for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina. It was the fourth consecutive win for the Buccaneers, who had lost four of their previous five contests. The triumph kept Tampa Bay three games behind Atlanta in the division and in the thick of things in the NFC wild-card picture.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-1): Atlanta became the first team to win when its quarterback throws five interceptions and no touchdowns since Green Bay accomplished the feat in 1967 with Bart Starr under center. Ryan has been superb over his last seven road games as he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tony Gonzalez needs 12 receiving yards to become the eighth player - and first tight end - in NFL history to reach the 14,000-yard plateau.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-4): Tampa Bay has scored a league-high 205 points over its last six games. Freeman has lost four of his last five games against Atlanta, throwing 10 interceptions and only six touchdown passes. In his last six overall contests, he is 5-1 with 16 TDs and only three picks. The Buccaneers own the league's best run defense with an average of 81.8 yards allowed. However, the team has surrendered an NFL-worst 312.6 passing yards.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five vs. NFC South.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers’ last seven games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons have won six of the last seven meetings between the division rivals.

2. Tampa Bay has not won five straight games since 2002.

3. Six of Atlanta's last seven games have been decided by no more than a touchdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

49ers at Saints: What bettors need to know

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (1, 49)

A one-week injury may have been all it took for Alex Smith to lose his job as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against the visiting New Orleans Saints. Smith has been demoted to second-team reps in practice by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was left impressed by Kaepernick's performance in Monday's 32-7 drubbing of the Chicago Bears.

Kaepernick's second NFL start will pit him against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. As expected, Brees has been the catalyst - he torched the Oakland Raiders for three scores in a Week 11 victory and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. He'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -1, O/U: 49.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-2-1): As Smith sat recovering from a concussion, Kaepernick staked his claim to the starting role with 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's vaunted defense. Kaepernick was given a ringing post-game endorsement by tight end Vernon Davis, who finished with six catches for 83 yards and a score. "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," said Davis, who had amassed just nine catches for 101 yards in his previous four contests - all with Smith at the helm.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-5): While New Orleans' offense continues to roll over the opposition, the defense has made quiet strides during the team's current winning streak. The Saints kept Oakland at bay in a 38-17 victory on Sunday and has surrendered an average of 19 points over its last three games. Running back Darren Sproles has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks with a broken hand. Sproles will be a popular option for Brees in what becomes a muddled backfield.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 vs. NFC opponents.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers, with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 107.2.

2. San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith's 5 1/2 sacks against Chicago give him 29 in his first 26 NFL games, the most by any player over that time frame.

3. The 49ers lead the all-time series 45-24-2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

Sunday Night Football: Packers at Giants

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3, 50.5)

The past two Super Bowl champions will square off when the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers try to protect their division title hopes Sunday night at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight, but they're still lead the mediocre NFC East. Green Bay might have relinquished its spot atop the NFC Central - depending on Chicago's outcome against Minnesota on Sunday afternoon - by the time the prime-time showdown arrives, but the Packers will be in good shape in the wild card race, regardless.

The Packers have won six of the past seven regular-season meetings, including a 38-35 road win last December. But the Giants spoiled Green Bay's bid for a second consecutive Super Bowl title last January, winning 37-20 in Green Bay en route to winning the title itself.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: New York -3. O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-3): After a bit of a slow start, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with cornerback Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-4): New York looked like a real threat to defend its title as recently as three weeks ago, but the flaws have been exposed in consecutive losses. The offense stalled in a 24-20 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9, and four turnovers were their undoing in a 31-13 loss at Cincinnati in Week 10. Eli Manning has gone three games without a touchdown pass, but he has a strong record against the Packers. He has passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in the past two meetings with Green Bay, including last year's playoff win.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning needs two touchdowns passes to tie Phil Simms (199) for the most in franchise history.

2. The Packers are 25-0 when Rodgers starts and has a rating of 115 or higher. He has a 121.2 rating in two regular-season starts against the Giants.

3. The Giants are 10-0 when RB Ahmad Bradshaw has at least 100 rushing yards. Bradshaw (foot) is listed as questionable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL weather watch: Chance of snow in Cleveland

Minnesota at Chicago (-6.5, 38.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 10 mph.

Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5, 50.5)

Site: Paul Brown Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 13 mph.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1, 34.5)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a 20 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 17 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at New Orleans

The Saints look to build on their 15-3 ATS record in their last 18 home games. New Orleans is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1) Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)


Game 221-222: Oakland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.244; Cincinnati 137.024
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8; 49
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8); Under


Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.379; Cleveland 130.374
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1 1/2); Over


Game 225-226: Buffalo at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.083; Indianapolis 1329.558
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under


Game 227-228: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.980; Kansas City 126.942
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+11); Over


Game 229-230: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.170 Jacksonville 122.308
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2 1/2); Under


Game 231-232: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.718; Chicago 131.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 233-234: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.998; Tampa Bay 138.760
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1);


Game 235-236: Seattle at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Miami 129.501
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over


Game 237-238: Baltimore at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.595; San Diego 133.439
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Under


Game 239-240: San Francisco at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.167; New Orleans 139.257
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Under


Game 241-242: St. Louis at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 129.779; Arizona 127.752
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+2 1/2); Over


Game 243-244: Green Bay at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.596; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

New Orleans at Denver

The Hornets are coming off a 111-108 loss to Phoenix and look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10). Here are all of today's picks


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 501-502: San Antonio at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.901; Toronto 117.153
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over


Game 503-504: Detroit at New York (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.139; New York 129.905
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 16; 188
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-11 1/2); Under


Game 505-506: Portland at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.855; Brooklyn 120.539
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6 1/2); Over


Game 507-508: Phoenix at Philadelphia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.943; Philadelphia 119.846
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 194
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4); Under


Game 509-510: Boston at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.896; Orlando 118.004
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5 1/2); Over


Game 511-512: New Orleans at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.055; Denver 120.039
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 196
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Cal Poly at UCLA

The Bruins look to take advantage of a Cal Poly team that is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 road games. UCLA is the pick (-20) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 23 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-20). Here are all of today's games.


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 513-514: UL-Lafayette at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 48.026; Michigan State 70.730
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+23 1/2)


Game 515-516: Villanova at LaSalle (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 55.792; LaSalle 61.732
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 6; 137
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 3 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-3 1/2); Under


Game 517-518: Delaware at Temple (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.876; Temple 69.276
Dunkel Line: Temple by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 11
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-11)


Game 519-520: Long Beach State at Fresno State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 54.968; Fresno State 63.272
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-7)


Game 521-522: Rhode Island at Auburn (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 53.773; Auburn 59.365
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Auburn by 8
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+8)


Game 523-524: Portland at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 48.917; New Mexico 66.559
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 19
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+19)


Game 525-526: Air Force at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 57.684; Colorado 66.188
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+11 1/2)


Game 527-528: Ball State at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 48.745; Indiana 80.001
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 31 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Indiana by 30 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-30); Under


Game 529-530: San Diego State at USC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 65.435; USC 58.924
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6 1/2; 117
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 1 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-1 1/2); Under


Game 531-532: Cal Poly at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 50.112; UCLA 73.804
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 20
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-20)


Game 533-534: Marist vs. Clemson (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 49.878; Clemson 65.170
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 15 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Clemson by 10 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-10 1/2); Under


Game 535-536: Vanderbilt vs. UTEP (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 52.049; UTEP 59.197
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 7
Vegas Line: UTEP by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-4 1/2)


Game 537-538: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 61.596; Oklahoma 62.403
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1; 139
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 1; 134
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+1); Over


Game 539-540: Davidson vs. Gonzaga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 63.520; Gonzaga 75.505
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 12; 137
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 7 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-7 1/2); Under


Game 541-542: Xavier vs. Drake (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 62.717; Drake 57.871
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 5; 130
Vegas Line: Xavier by 3; 134
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-3); Under


Game 543-544: Drexel vs. Rice (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 63.415; Rice 48.902
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 13
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-13)


Game 545-546: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Georgia Tech (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.491; Georgia Tech 56.430
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7; 128
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 5; 124
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-5); Over


Game 547-548: Pacific vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 52.839; California 63.490
Dunkel Line: California by 10 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: California by 6 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: California (-6 1/2); Under


Game 549-550: Rider vs. WI-Milwaukee (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:


Game 551-552: Missouri State vs. SMU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:


Game 553-554: South Carolina vs. AR-Little Rock (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:


Game 555-556: St. Peter's at Seton Hall (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 49.694; Seton Hall 62.394
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+15 1/2)


Game 557-558: Portland State at Oklahoma State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 47.146; Oklahoma State 67.394
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+21 1/2)


Game 559-560: Rutgers at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 52.978; NC-Greensboro 48.197
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 5
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+6)


Game 561-562: Montana State at Oregon State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 46.132; Oregon State 68.349
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 22;
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-20 1/2)


Game 571-572: Gardner-Webb at Illinois (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 52.370; Illinois 66.212
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14; 135
Vegas Line: Illinois by 18; 131
Dunkel Pick: Gardner-Webb (+18); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Browns +2
Dolphins +3
Packers +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Accuscore

Written by Colin Kennedy

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At the midpoint of the NFL season, two of the biggest surprises have been two NFC South teams: the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the Falcons have made the playoffs three out of the previous four seasons, no one expected them to have the league’s best record. Likewise, many analysts and experts expected the upstart Bucs to be a several seasons away from playoff contention due to their youth, inexperience and lack of depth along with a rookie head coach in Greg Schiano. However, after just ten games, the Falcons look locked into the NFC’s top seed while Tampa Bay attempts to win a Wild Card spot. On Sunday afternoon, the two will meet for the first time this season in what is expected to be a close game.

The Falcons are favored by a point, and cover 51.7 percent of the time in simulations. The total is set at 50.5 points with the two teams combining to go over 52.5 percent of the time. In simulations where the Falcons committed fewer turnovers (31 percent) they went on to win 80 percent of the time. The Bucs won 59 percent of simulations when they committed fewer turnovers.

In years past, the Falcons featured a balanced offensive attack between quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner. While Turner used to be the key that ignited this Falcon offense, Ryan has emerged as not only the team leader but deservingly among the league’s elite at his position. In simulations he averages 313 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, but against this porous Buccaneer defense I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers are significantly higher.

Tampa Bay allows an average of 313 yards passing per game, the most in the NFL. They’ve done it while playing some poor passing offenses including Carolina (twice), Kansas City, and Minnesota. With starting cornerback Eric Wright out for Sunday’s contest, both Atlanta receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones figure to be able to pad their stats. Simulations showed White having an outstanding day with 90 yards receiving and half a touchdown while Jones added almost 80 yards himself and a 60 percent chance of a score. Jones is listed as questionable with an ankle injury although he did practice on Friday. If Jones misses this contest, expect more targets for tight end Tony Gonzalez, who would look to improve upon his projected 67.5 yards and 0.6 TD.

In years past, the Falcons were among the league’s top rushing teams, but Turner has significantly fallen off this season. Turner seems to have lost the power in his legs, and it shows with a paltry 3.7 yards per rush average on 155 carries. Fantasy dynasty league owners should expect and anticipate Turner’s release this upcoming offseason. Turner is projected to have less than 50 yards rushing and 0.4 TDs.

Unfortunately for Turner, the Bucs lead the league in run defense, although that figure is offset by having the league’s worst pass defense. While the Bucs rank last in the league against the pass, they have room for improvement and have impressively won their last four games to get into the playoff picture. The Bucs are now without their Week 1 starters (the injured Wright and recently traded CB Aqib Talib) at cornerback but hopefully over these next few weeks their youthful corners will develop into solid starters with decent futures.

Rookie running back Doug Martin, a late 1st round pick from Boise State, has quickly become a football sensation since his breakthrough performance against Oakland where he gained 251 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 25 carries. Martin how has over 1,300 total yards on the season, and if it weren’t for the stellar play of rookie QBs Robert Griffith III and Andrew Luck, would be in talks for Rookie of the Year honors. Martin projects to rush for 85 yards and score once. If the game remains close, he’ll be the Bucs best option to move the chains, so his numbers could reach into the triple digits for rushing yards.

The signing of receiver Vincent Jackson has really benefited Mike Williams, who slipped in his sophomore season. While Jackson leads the team with over 860 receiving yards, Williams is on pace to surpass 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Despite the Falcons having a deep and experienced secondary, I expect both Buccaneer receivers to surpass their projections. I think Jackson will be closer to 100 yards than his projected 78 yards and 0.7 TDs, while Williams’ projection of 53 yards seems low.

Freeman has beautifully rebounded from his disappointing 2011 season when his numbers dipped to a below average 74.6 passing rating, and a horrendous 16-22 TD to INT ratio. The combination of more talent to throw to and a more balanced offensive attack has allowed Freeman to take fewer chances, and it shows in his 21-7 TD-to-INT ratio. Freeman projects to pass for almost 260 yards and 2 TDs to just 1 interception.

The Atlanta defense mirrors their offense: strong passing units (4th offensively, 7th defensively) but weak rushing (28th offensively and 26th defensively). The defense has maintained a bend but don’t break mentality. While the defense has forced 19 total turnovers, few Falcon defenders have been able to consistently get after opposing quarterbacks. After John Abraham’s 9 sacks, Jonathan Babineaux is a distant second with just 3.5 sacks. These figures aren’t likely to change much after this weekend either.

Although the Falcons are in first place in the NFC, this game is more important to the Bucs as their second half schedule is among the toughest in the league. Over the next few weeks Tampa will play Denver, New Orleans and the Falcons again. While this Falcon team has been fortunate to win several close games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa take this important game. If Atlanta is able to get Turner going early, they should be able to lock up this game and potentially their division early. However, if the Bucs’ secondary is able to contain Ryan, expect this one to be a nail biter. I’m taking the upset here and taking the Bucs 31 Falcons 27.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Free NFL Football Pick

Sunday November 25th 2012

Atlanta -1.5 over Tampa
The Falcons have the leagues best record yet nobody is giving them respect because of the fashion they have been winning in. That is fine today because all we are doing is picking the winner in this one. Tampa has been impressive, but they are not on the Falcons level. Tampa’s Secondary is a complete mess and there is no way they are going to be able to cover these superstars on the Falcons Offense. I really do not see Matt Ryan being stopped at all in this game. This should be a high scoring entertaining game. Take Atlanta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play SUNDAY

Packers +3