12-24-12

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::clap::

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Northcoast

Hawaii Bowl (Monday night)
Top Opinions
SMU +12
Over 58.5

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Allen Eastman
Take #213 SMU (+12.5) over Fresno State (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 24) – HAWAII BOWL


Take #215 Central Michigan (+5.5) over Western Kentucky (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 26) – LITTLE CEASAR’S BOWL

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

Stats as of Sunday, Dec. 23.

Hottest ATS team

Miami Heat (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS last week)

The Heat are hitting their stride with a huge Christmas Day matchup looming. Miami rolled over Minnesota, Dallas and Utah last week, winning those games by an average margin of 14 points – music to the bettor’s ears. Those blowouts are just what you need when dealing with the Heat’s inflated lines on a nightly basis. Miami is getting the job done with defense, holding all three of those opponents and its last seven under the 100-point plateau.

Coldest ATS team

San Antonio Spurs (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS last week)

Suddenly the NBA’s golden goose is losing its glitter. The Spurs have been cash cows for most of 2012 but hit an ATS skid this week, failing to cover at Oklahoma City, at Denver and home to New Orleans. However, things will likely turn around this coming week. Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson are both back from injuries, providing the aging starters with some relief off the bench. San Antonio hosts Dallas Sunday before a short break and a home game with Toronto on Dec. 26.

Best over team

Boston Celtics (1-2 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Celtics’ late-game defense has allowed scores to creep into over range. Boston let up versus Milwaukee Friday and watched an 8-point fourth-quarter lead transform into an overtime loss. The Celtics have actually been one of the better over plays at home this season, posting a 9-4-1 over/under count in the Garden. However, they hit the road for four straight games starting with a Christmas Day trip to Brooklyn. The Nets and Celtics have played under the total in seven of their last nine meetings.

Best under team

Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Clippers may get some serious face time during the Plays of the Night, but L.A.’s "other team" has built a solid start to the season on the back of its defense. Los Angeles is locking down foes for just 92.2 points per game and took advantage of some less-than-powerful scoring attacks this past week. In wins over Detroit, New Orleans and Sacramento, the Clippers gave up an average of just over 79 points. Los Angeles takes on Phoenix Sunday and has a Christmas Day date with Denver at home.

Scouting the schedule

- Toronto better enjoy its extended holiday break because it’s back to business after Xmas. The Raptors hit the road for three road games in four nights, starting in San Antonio Wednesday. They then go to New Orleans Friday and Orlando Saturday. Toronto has been a solid wager north of the border (8-4 ATS at home) but is just 6-10 ATS away from the Air Canada Centre.

- Miami doesn’t get much time to put its feet up during the holidays. The Heat play four games in five nights, beginning with a finals rematch against Oklahoma City on Christmas Day. The defending champs hit the road for three straight games after that – at Charlotte Wednesday, at Detroit Friday, and at Milwaukee Saturday. They cap that four-game swing in Orlando on New Year’s Eve.

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 17 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 3-1 (.750)
ATS: 1-3 (.250)
ATS Vary Units: 3-17 (.150)
Over/Under: 2-2 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 9-6 (.600)

Season
Straight Up: 1046-345 (.752)
ATS: 417-394 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2445-2295 (.516)
Over/Under: 375-360 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1237-883 (.583)

Monday, December 24, 2012
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Fresno State 40, Smu 26

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Big al
4* SMU +12

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ATS Consultants
3* smu

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Xpertpicks

• Play Fresno State -13 over SMU (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---40% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Fresno State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 12 games and
they have also covered the spread in 9 consecutive games when playing
as a favorite. Fresno State has covered the spread in 6 consecutive
games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they are
averaging over 40 points a game on offense this season.

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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (+12, 59.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. The lone Christmas Eve bowl game figures to be gift-wrapped with plenty of offense. Southern Methodist will try to keep pace with Fresno State, which is ranked 14th nationally in total offense at 488.5 yards per game while averaging 40.2 points. The Mustangs average 29.5 points and scored a school-record 72 against Houston in October.

2. SMU coach June Jones is familiar with the islands after coaching Hawaii for nine seasons. The Mustangs, who are making their school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance, won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl 45-10 against Nevada. The Bulldogs are making their 12th bowl appearance in the last 14 seasons, and are coming off their first conference championship since 1999.

3. Both teams enter the contest riding a wave of momentum after finishing the regular season on a high note. Fresno State has won five straight games, including a 48-15 victory over Air Force on Nov. 24. SMU went 2-2 down the stretch, but the Mustangs beat Tulsa 35-27 in their season finale to hand the Golden Hurricane their first conference loss. Fresno State lost to Tulsa 27-26 on Sept. 22.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Fresno State opened at -11.5 and has since climbed to -12. The total opened at 59.5 and has remained steady.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 51 percent chance of rain later in the game with temperatures in the high 60s. Winds are expected to blow ENE at 7 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. MWC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last four Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Mustangs' last seven games overall.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 11-1 ATS): Led by first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs shared the conference championship with Boise State and San Diego State. Junior quarterback Derek Carr was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams led the conference in receptions (89), receiving yards (1,168) and touchdown catches (13), while senior Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. Senior defensive back Philip Thomas leads the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranked 19th in the nation while allowing an average of 335.3 yards. Thomas was named the Mountain West’s top defensive player after recording a career-high 82 tackles and eight interceptions. After recording only nine takeaways last year, Fresno State tied for third nationally with SMU and Boise State with 33 turnovers gained this season.

ABOUT SMU (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Mustangs needed their victory over Tulsa to become bowl eligible after losing 36-14 at Rice on Nov. 17. The offense is led by senior Zach Line, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,207 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a dual threat who had 14 passing touchdowns and seven rushing. Gilbert has a 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has thrown 126 passes without an interception. The defense is led by defensive end Margus Hunt and linebacker Ja'Gared Davis, who forced three turnovers against Tulsa. The Mustangs are vulnerable in the secondary, where they've lost two starters to injuries. Over the past two-plus seasons, SMU is 14-0 when scoring first, but 0-14 when the opponent scores first.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB SMU at FRESNO ST.

Play On - Any team (FRESNO ST) an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.
113-61 over the last 10 seasons. ( 64.9% 45.9 units )
11-9 this year. ( 55.0% 1.1 units )

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Blue Ribbon 12/24

213 Southern Methodist +12

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Monday, December 31st - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
SMU +12 vs fresno state (5pm)

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Powersweep

4★: SMU (+) over Fresno St.

Pointwise

Bowl Releases

6* FRESNO ST 44 - SMU 27

CKO

Priority Sports Picks

10* #214 Fresno St.

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Intpicks 12/24
3--Fresno St vs SMU OVER 59.5

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Mark Lawrence Playbook (Midweek Alert)

SMU over Fresno State by 1

tip of the hat to the great job done by both coaches this season.
Fresno State’s Tim DeRuyter turned a 4-win Bulldogs squad
into a 9-win ATM machine in his fi rst season, going 10-1 ATS in
the process. Meanwhile, June Jones did some of the best coaching of
his career when he turned a 2-4 squad into a bowler by season’s end.
While it’s dangerous jumping in front of a moneymaking machine, our
database gives us permission in this game as it notes that bowlers
riding a 5-0 SUATS streak are just 14-19 SU and 13-20 ATS since 1980.
The mean machine also points out the fact that fi rst-year coaches
struggle as favorites in bowl games, now 13-27-1 ATS since 1990 –
including a jaw-dropping 0-3 SUATS when laying double-digits! When
it comes to bowl trending, these former Western Athletic Conferencemates
own wildly disparate numbers as the dog in SMU bowl games
is 7-0 SUATS while the favorite in Fresno State postseason tilts is 2-9
SU and 1-10 ATS. The Ponies’ attack is led by CUSA Offensive Player
of the Year RB Zach Line, 2nd all-time rusher to Eric Dickerson in SMU
history. Line will look to puncture the Bulldogs’ Achilles heel, namely
a rush defense that allowed its six fellow bowl teams an average
222 yards on the ground. In closing, this year’s Mustangs bring the
same traits the 2009 SMU team did when June Jones’ squad closed
4-1 and went on to win the Hawaii Bowl, 45-10, as 11-point dogs
over highly-touted Nevada. Coupled with Jones’ familiarity and past
successes at Aloha Stadium as Hawaii’s head man (16-1 SU last 17
games, 4-0 SUATS last four Aloha Bowl games), it’s June in December
in Hawaii all over again.

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Sports Reporter

HAWAII BOWL
Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, HI
FRESNO STATE over SMU by 17
SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert graces your television on Christmas Eve.
Earlier this season, the guy was the gift that kept on giving, tossing INTs to
defensive backs opposing SMU like an elf tosses toys from the sack. Then,
a Halloween miracle occurred and he hasn’t thrown a pick in SMU’s last five
games. Gilbert becoming pick-less didn’t stop the Ponies from losing to Central
Florida by 25 points and to Rice by 18 points. In those five interceptionfree
outings, Gilbert has only thrown 3 TD passes, topping 60% completions
in only two of the five games. For the season, Gilbert’s TD-INT is 14-13, with a
measly Yards Per Attempt of 5.7. We would not think of putting people in position
to have Christmas ruined by placing it in the hands of Garrett Gilbert, who,
to be fair, has some receivers with hands like feet. On the other side, you have
QB Derek Carr, who has been throwing as many times per game as Gilbert has
(40), completing 68% of his throws with a 36-5 TD-INT ratio and 8.1 yards per
attempt. When he throws, he’ll be doing it against SMU’s #108th-ranked pass
defense. While the 19 interceptions made by SMU’s defense is fourth-most in
the nation, let’s not forget that 7 of them came in one game against Stephen
F. Austin (the team, not the guy), and another 6 in one game vs. Houston.
This seems like the right time to point out that Fresno State’s defense had
20 interceptions, at least 1 in every game except against Oregon, and ranks
#4 in pass defense having allowed an average of only 163 passing yards per
game, 5.6 per attempt. They also have nearly twice as many sacks as SMU’s
defense. Fresno State first-season head coach Tim DeRuyter and defensive
coordinator Nick Toth had the pleasure of being the Texas A&M defensive coordinator
and outside linebackers coaches last season, which enabled them
to watch their unit intercept this SMU offense on its first two possession of the
game, and eventually get 8 sacks. Fresno’s +188 average yardage differential
vs. SMU is worth about 13.5 points in a game with an even Turnover Ratio,
but we’re thinking that Fresno can win that category. FRESNO STATE, 41-24.

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The Goldsheet

HAWAII BOWL
SMU (6-6) vs. FRESNO STATE (9-3)
Monday, December 24 Night at Honolulu, Hawaii (Artificial Turf)

*Fresno St. 42 - Smu 23—We can only imagine what must be going through
the mind of storied broadcaster Jim Leahey and other locals in Honolulu as June
Jones returns to Aloha Stadium with his SMU team, five years after bailing out
on the Hawaii program just as it hit its apex following an unbeaten regular season
and appearance in the BCS at the Sugar Bowl. How could we have let him leave?
We made sure to keep Don Ho on the islands, didn’t we? Why couldn’t we have
done the same with Jones? Especially since the hometown Warriors have fallen
upon hard times in Jones’ absence, on their second coach since (Norm Chow)
and having regressed to a 3-9 SU mark this season.
This also isn’t the first time since his departure after the 2007 campaign that
Jones has taken his Mustangs team to this bowl game; three years ago, amid
similar buzz in Oahu, Jones gave the islanders a taste of what they had been
missing when his underdog SMU rolled past Nevada, 45-10, thanks to a 460-yard
passing effort from QB Kyle Padron. But we wouldn’t be holding our breath in
hopes of a repeat performance.


Indeed, SMU exhibited strong Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde tendencies this season, with
most of the Mr. Hyde appearing away from Dallas, where the Ponies lost and
failed to cover four of five (including the ignominy of a loss at Tulane), outscored
a whopping 21 ppg in their defeats. Jones’ pet Red Gun fired far fewer bullets
this season, ranking only 59th in national passing stats due mostly to the
inconsistencies of Texas transfer QB Garrett Gilbert, who completed barely 50%
of his passes and tossed only 14 TD passes alongside 13 picks. Injuries in the
WR corps didn’t help, with underrated RB Zach Line (1207 YR) the main option
of a somewhat-muted strike force.


Thus, outscoring the potent Bulldogs and their 40-ppg offense appears more
than a bit problematic, especially since Fresno was also a pointspread revelation,
covering 11 of 12 under new HC Tim DeRuyter, who as Texas A&M’s d.c.
in 2011, easily solved the Jones Red Gun in a 49-14 Aggies romp. DeRuyter’s
blitz-happy “D” ranked 4th nationally in sacks with 35 and was among the nation’s
pass defense leaders as well (all bad news for the Red Gun). The Bulldog edge
extends to offense, where sr. QB Derek Carr (36 TDP) enjoyed a banner year in
DeRuyter’s new spread looks, while RB Robbie Rouse (over 3000 YR the past
two seasons; 5.5 ypc and 14 TDs in 2012) provides electrified balance. This
homecoming for Jones doesn’t shape up as pleasantly as it did three years ago.

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Fresno State vs. SMU

The Bulldogs look to follow up their 48-15 win over Air Force in the regular season finale and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Fresno State is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12). Here are all of this year's bowl games.


MONDAY, DECEMBER 24
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (12/12)


Game 213-214: Fresno State vs. SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 97.175; SMU 78.675
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 18 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 12; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12); Under

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Saints (+3) Sunday.

Monday it’s Fresno State. The deficit is 1078 sirignanos.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 954 - 710 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner MON Over the total SMU/Fresno 58

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PAUL LEINER

500* Over 59.5 SMU/ Fresno

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Cappers Access

Fresno State -12

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Football Crusher
Southern Methodist + Fresno State OVER 60
(System Record: 42-3, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 42-47-4

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Football Betting Sheet 2012-13 Bowl Season

*Plays based upon a five-point scale. Plays over a 4.0 are strong plays. Plays above a 4.5 are mandatory plays.
Their highest rated play is on the Hawaii Bowl.
OVER 59.5: Rated 4.9/5.0

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Fresno St

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CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
17-5 NCAAF RUN (http://www.capperswatchdog.com/bio.php?id=200) (77%)
10 NOV 3-1
14 NOV 1-0
15 NOV 1-0
16 NOV 1-0
17 NOV 2-1
23 NOV 1-0
24 NOV 1-2
30 NOV 1-0
01 DEC 2-0
08 DEC 0-1
15 DEC 1-0
20 DEC 1-0
21 DEC 1-0
22 DEC 1-0
24 DEC
3* Fresno State -11

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Trace Adams


Top-Rated
1000♦
Hawaii Bowl Lock


Fresno State Bulldogs -12

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PSYCHIC
(1-5)

Pass

WIZARD
(1-20)

10 unit SMU +12

Kenny Nguyen
(1-50)

Pass

JT WALKER
(all units same)

Pass

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Sean Higgs
Play Title 4* SMU +12.5 / +385
Play Selected Point Spread: 12.5/-110
Taking SMU here and will also sprinkle a little on the ML +385. I like June Jones. He coached here in Hawai'i and will have his team focused. Where is the motivation for Fresno? They go 9-3 and have to play on Christmas Eve vs a 6-6 SMU team? SMU will be pumped up for sure. This is their coaches old stomping ground. They are looking to get over .500 on the year. They can run the ball with Zach Line and their defense has forced TOs all season long. Fresno 11-1 ATS so we know that we are getting a few extra points here with an inflated number. With extra time to prepare, I am taking the big pups here and would not be surprised to get an outright win from the Ponies. 4* SMU

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Wunderdog

SMU at Fresno State
Pick: SMU +11.5

The Hawaii bowl and SMU coach June Jones returns to his glory days on the Big Island. SMU had to fight hard to get this game with a 35-27 win against Tulsa in the regular-season finale, as well as winning four of their final six games. The offense has been clicking behind junior QB Garrett Gilbert, scoring 72, 44, 34 and 35 in those wins. The Mustangs will be playing for their third bowl championship in four seasons, having won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl and the 2012 Compass Bowl. In 2009 Jones returned to Hawaii for this bowl and as a +11 dog destroyed Nevada, 45-10. He has the type of speed-oriented passing offense that is a perfect fit for the Hawaii fast carpet. SMU also has balance on offense with 2012 C-USA Offensive Player of the Year RB Zach Line (1,207 yards, 4.7 ypc). The SMU defense is decent, tied for the national lead in pick-sixes and is tied for third in the nation in total takeaways. The Mustangs are also tied for sixth in interceptions and for third in fumble recoveries for TDs. Fresno State has a great offense, but the defense is only a little better than SMU's allowing 22.3 ppg. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games, while the SMU Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Mountain West, so grab the big dog in this evenly matched game. Play SMU.

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Brew City Sports
9-3 Bowl Run and 21-5 their lat 26 football plays

2* Fresno State
1* Over

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KELSO
25 Units

Fresno State (-12) over SMU
8:00 PM -- Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Played at Aloha Stadium (50,000) Artificial Turf in Honolulu
Prediction: Fresno State by 21-24
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 30% chance of rain, game-time temperature of 75 with wind out of the southeast at 5-10 miles per hour.
Starting Time: 8:05

Comments: This is another matchup of two team from different levels of the college football world. Fresno State is a major player while SMU remains in the mid-major universe. Make no mistake about it, Fresno State is a big-time major loaded with blue-chip talent, including junior quarterback Derek Carr, David’s brother, who has thrown for 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions while completing 68.1% of his passes this season. He has already said he will return for his senior year and most likely will be a 1st-round NFL draft choice when he graduates. In his best game this season—a 52-40 win over San Diego State, he passed for 536 yards and five touchdowns. His efforts are made even more effective with the presence of running back Robbie Rouse who is the school’s all-time leading rusher and ran for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. But the ability to win does not end there. The Bulldogs also have the 19th best defense in the country (335.3 yards per game), are ranked 4th in interception with 20 and 9th in sacks with 34. This is not meant to denigrate SMU, which did beat Tulsa, 35-27, this season but other than that unexpected win, the Mustangs were buried by every other good team on their schedule, losing at Central Florida (10-4), 42-17, at home to TCU (7-5), 24-16, and at home to Texas A&M (10-2), 48-3. There is little reason to think Fresno State, which has had great practices leading up to this game, won’t get the money in dominating fashion

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Jimmy Boyd

3* Fresno State -12

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CHRIS JORDAN 200*

smu/fresno over 59.5

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Play of the Day and GamingToday Consensus December 24, 2012 3:01 AM by GT Staff

Christmas Eve Play of the Day and GT’s Consensus Pick

Hawaii Bowl

Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, Hi

SMU vs. Fresno State at 5 p.m. PT ESPN

There is only one game being played this Christmas eve and we have decided to go with the underdog

SMU +12 and we will use this as our play of the day also as the dog has gone 7-0 SU and ATS in bowl games that SMU has played in since 1980, and no matter who wins this game the teams, family and boaster will have a great Christmas vacation in Honolulu.

SMU +12

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Original Underdog
Smu

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Seabass Report:
200 Fresno

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BEN BURNS

ecember 24, 2012 - 8:00 PM NCAAF Fresno State vs. Southern Methodist Burns' Christmas Eve *10* Stocking Stuffer! ~ Hawaii Bowl sportsinteraction @ 12.5 -110 Southern Methodist

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Marco D'Angelo | CFB Side Mon, 12/24/12 - 8:00 PM ˌ
double-dime bet 214 Fresno St. -11.5 (http://www.pregameaction.com/?page_id=57?AflId=4260) vs 213 SMU
Analysis: PLAY: FRESNO ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

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KB Hoops

Bowl Record 5-2 +13.1 units

5 units Fresno State -12 **POD**

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Trace Adams

Monday's Selection ...

For Monday night, Top-Rated 1000♦ Best Bet is Fresno State as the double-digit favorite against the SMU Mustangs. As of 8:30 am eastern when I release my selection, the Bulldogs are the -12 point chalk over the Mustangs.

I am going to keep this short-and-sweet, as I am sure you all have better things to do this Christmas Eve then sit here and read analysis on this game....I do not think this game is going to be close at all.

June Jones used to coach in this very stadium not that long ago, and he did bring SMU to this very bowl game not long after, as his Mustangs roughed up Nevada 45-10 back in '09 in this contest. Ahh, but that was then, and this is now. This SMU team is not very good away from home, losing 4 of their 5 road games this season by an average of 21 points per game! Included in their road journeys is a very ugly loss against a terrible Tulane team.

The Mustangs are 1-4 against the spread on the highway this season, and now just 2-7 on the road since the middle of the 2011 campaign.

On the flip side, Fresno State was a wrecking ball this year covering 11 of 12 games, and averaging 40 points per game along the way. QB Derek Carr comes into this bowl game having tossed 36 TD passes!

FSU has covered 7 of their last 8 away from home and after missing bowl play last season under long-time coach Pat Hill, I expect State to come out roaring tonight under 1st year coach Tim Deruyter.

Lay it as the Bulldogs take this one by at least 17-points.