12-27-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

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Goodfella

Duke +7.5

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Big Al

5* Bowling Green
3* Duke, UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Military Bowl (Washington DC)
MAC somehow got seven bowl bids; first two lost 41-15/38-17, as they are worst D-I league in country. San Jose State comes cross country for first bowl game in six years with interim coach after MacIntyre bolted for Colorado; rain, wind expected, temps in mid-40's. Spartans won last two bowls, are 6-2 as favorites this year- they beat BYU, La Tech, lost by only 3 at Stanford. Bowling Green is in first bowl since '09, a 43-42 loss to Idaho; they've allowed average of 39.8 ppg in last five bowls, but won six of last seven games overall after 1-3 start (lost at Florida and Va Tech); they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, just 7-15 on FGs. San Jose's PK is 15-15 on FGs. WAC non-conference favorites are 6-7 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 18-16. Favorites covered three of previous four in this bowl, with average total in bowl history, 63.3.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
Duke (+10) upset North Carolina October 20 to go 6-2, became eligible to for a bowl, but then lost its last four games, allowing average of 49.5 ppg to limp into its first bowl in 18 years, when they lost 34-20 at the old Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin. Blue Devils' last bowl win was in 1960 in the Cotton Bowl, over Alabama. Cincinnati is in sixth bowl in last seven years (3-2 in last five); they're 9-3, but other than upset win over a subpar Va Tech team, no Cincy wins stand out- they covered four of last five games as a favorite. Bearcats lost coach Jones to Tennessee, will have 4th coach in seven years in '13. Duke is 2-6 vs spread as a dog; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this season. ACC teams are 6-3 in this bowl, 2-1 vs spread when dog; favorites are 5-4 overall in this bowl. Not sure Cincinnati is thrilled to be here, after playing in higher profile bowl games. Duke is definitely happy to be playing anywhere on December 27. Big East faves are 8-8 vs spread, 2-6 on road; ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-11 this season.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
UCLA coach Mora, former NFL mentor, is in first bowl; his Bruins are 1-3 in bowls last six years, losing to Illinois in San Francisco LY- they'll be more excited to be playing here, fairly close to home, in much better weather. UCLA upset rival USC to get to 9-2, then lost on consecutive weekends to Stanford; they scored 24 or less points in all four losses, up to Baylor to keep them there, but Bears scored 50+ points in two of its five losses this year, thats how bad their defense is; Baylor is playing in third straight bowl after going bowlless for previous 15 years; they beat Washington 67-56 LY, after losing 38-14 to Illinois two years ago. Big X teams are 13-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season; Pac-12 teams are 11-16. Losing side scored 0-7-10 points in last three Holiday Bowls, which used to be famous for wild, high-scoring games; last six years, this game was decided by 11+ points, with Big X/Pac-12 teams alternating wins last seven years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Military Bowl: What bettors need to know

San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (7.5, 44)

MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Bowling Green has allowed an average of 15.8 points and ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (289.7), while San Jose State’s offense has been productive, averaging 35.2 points and 327.5 yards passing.

2. The two teams combined for three victories in 2010 and both finished 5-7 in 2011. San Jose State won its last bowl in 2006 (New Mexico) and is 5-3 overall. Bowling Green last won in 2004 (GMAC) and is 4-5.

3. Both offensive lines will get quite a challenge. San Jose State is fifth in the nation with 40 sacks and Bowling Green ninth with 37, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5).

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Jose State -7.5, O/U 44

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies at RFK Stadium. Winds will gust out of the WNW at 20 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 57 percent of Covers Consensus players like San Jose State to cover.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (10-2, 5-1 WAC): The Spartans can reach the 11-victory mark for the first time since 1939 without coach Mike MacIntyre, who accepted the job at Colorado on Dec. 10. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer, the interim coach, takes over a team that has averaged just over 40 points in six straight wins. Quarterback David Fales has led the lethal offense, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 31 scores with only nine interceptions. Noel Grigsby has been the top target, scoring nine times while compiling 1,173 yards on 73 receptions. Chandler Jones has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. De’Leon Eskridge has led the ground attack with 992 yards and 10 touchdowns. Safety Bene Benwikere is the player to watch on defense with seven interceptions and 62 tackles.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Falcons have leaned on their defense to win seven of its last eight games after losing to bowl teams Florida, Toledo and Virginia Tech early on. Jones, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the way while linebacker Gabe Martin and defensive back BooBoo Gates also stand out. Bowling Green has held opponents to an average of 173 yards through the air and a 28 percent conversion rate on third down. The Falcons have averaged 28.5 points the last eight games, keyed by quarterback Matt Schilz and running back Anthon Samuel. Schilz, a junior, has thrown 50 career touchdown passes and 39 interceptions - 14 and 12, respectively, this season. Samuel is 34 yards from becoming the eighth Bowling Green player to rush for 1,000 yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belk Bowl: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati vs. Duke (9.5, 60.5)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES

1. Making its first bowl appearance in 17 years, Duke does not have to make a long trip as the Blue Devils meet Cincinnati in Charlotte, N.C., less than three hours from their campus in Durham. Led by ACC Coach of the Year David Cutcliffe and despite the excitement of heading to its first bowl game since 1995, Duke is on a four-game losing streak that has seen the Blue Devils allow 49.5 points during that span.

2. For the third time since 2006, Cincinnati goes into its postseason game without the coach that led the Bearcats during the season. After winning or sharing its fourth Big East Conference championship in the past five years, Cincinnati lost third-year coach Butch Jones on Dec. 7 to Tennessee, but 36 hours later hired former Texas Tech, Auburn, and Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville. Offensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the Bearcats in the bowl game.

3. With constant conference realignment in the air, Cincinnati has made no secret is would like to be in the ACC, which offered a spot to Louisville earlier this month. And the Bearcats would like to make a statement in the Belk Bowl, taking on Duke from the ACC. Cincinnati is making its 14th bowl appearance and sixth in the last seven years. In September, the Bearcats rallied to beat Virginia Tech in Washington D.C., knocking the Hokies out of the Top 25.

TV: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Cincinnati -9.5. O/U 60.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with clear skies at Bank of America Stadium. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Bearcats to cover.

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Bearcats’ last six December games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight games overall.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East): Senior Brendon Kay took over for the versatile, but erratic Munchie Legaux at quarterback late in the season and led the Bearcats to three wins in four games. Kay is completing almost 62 percent of his passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions. Kay also rushed for 230 yards and a pair of scores. Legaux accounted for 2,051 yards of offense and 17 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, a first team All-Big East performer is Cincinnati's top receiver with 40 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Second team All-Big East tailback George Winn was second in the league with 1,204 yards rushing. Winn had 12 touchdowns and five 100-yard games. The Bearcats average 430.8 yards and 31 points, while allowing only 13 sacks in 12 games. Cincinnati is allowing only 17.2 points, second in the Big East.

ABOUT DUKE (6-6, 3-5 ACC): The Blue Devils raced to a 6-2 start, highlighted by wins over North Carolina and Virginia before the ACC powers got them at the end of the season. Quarterback Sean Renfree has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions and Duke is the only FBS team in the nation to have three receivers catch more than 60 passes. Second team All-ACC performer Conner Vernon leads Duke with 75 receptions for 955 yards and seven touchdowns, while honorable mention all-ACC pick Jamison Crowder caught 70 for 1,025 yards and eight scores. Desmond Scott hauled in 61 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. Duke averages 31.3 points and 396.6 yards total offense while allowing 35 points and 462.1 yards. Ross Martin, the honorable mention all-league kicker for the Blue Devils, is 18-for-20 in field goals, including 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Holiday Bowl: What bettors need to know

Baylor vs. UCLA (-3, 81.5)

BRIDGEPORT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES

1. UCLA, ranked 19th, is looking for a 10-win season for the first time since 2005 as first-year coach Jim Mora has engineered an impressive turnaround. Baylor is playing in a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history and is also playing a bowl game outside the state of the Texas for the initial time.

2. The Holiday Bowl has a reputation for offensive fireworks and the Bruins and Bears should only add to the bowl’s lore. Baylor leads the nation in total offense at 578.8 yards per game and ranks fifth in scoring (44.1). UCLA is 20th in total offense (474.5) and 28th in scoring (35.1). Both teams have been very shaky defending the pass.

3. UCLA senior running back Johnathan Franklin is ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game (130.8) and is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,369 career yards. Baylor allows 190.8 rushing yards per game, so there will be opportunities for Franklin to conclude his career in style.

TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: UCLA -3, O/U 81.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and clear skies at Qualcomm Stadium. Winds will blow out of the NW at 5 mph.

CONSENSUS: Just over 50 percent of Covers Consensus players believe Baylor will cover.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Bruins’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five neutral site games.

ABOUT BAYLOR (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): Senior quarterback Nick Florence was up to the arduous task of replacing Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and leads the nation in total offense at 387.7 yards per game. Florence has passed for 4,121 yards and 31 touchdowns while being intercepted 13 times. He has a superb target in senior receiver Terrance Williams, who set a school-record with 1,764 receiving yards. Williams has 12 touchdowns among his 95 receptions. Sophomore running back Lache Seastrunk (874 yards) has played well down the stretch. Sophomore middle linebacker Bryce Hager has a team-leading 115 tackles, which leads the Big 12. Junior weak-side linebacker Eddie Lackey has a team-high four interceptions and returned two of them for touchdowns.

ABOUT UCLA (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12): The Bruins are coming off back-to-back losses to Stanford – the latter in the Pac-12 championship game – after winning five consecutive games. Franklin has rushed for a school-record 1,700 yards and was a runner-up for the Doak Walker Award won by Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has been intercepted 11 times. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a force with 20.5 tackles for loss – including 13.5 sacks – and four forced fumbles. Sophomore inside linebacker Eric Kendricks has a team-best 137 tackles while senior cornerback Sheldon Price and senior safety Andrew Abbott share the team lead with four interceptions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/27/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1374-402 (.774)
ATS: 542-566 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1956-2148 (.477)
Over/Under: 158-149 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 203-226 (.473)

Gotham Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
CANISIUS 78, Alcorn State 59
TEMPLE 78, Detroit 69

Summit League
IUPUI 72, Fort Wayne 70
WESTERN ILLINOIS 68, Oakland 62

Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 72, UL Lafayette 67
TROY 72, Florida Atlantic 67
WESTERN KENTUCKY 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 62

Non-Conference
AKRON 80, Texas Southern 59
BYU 88, Northern Arizona 63
CINCINNATI 70, New Mexico 61
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 77, Morgan State 68
SAINT MARY'S 78, Rhode Island 64

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams


Highest-Rated
2000♦
Double Your Wager
College FB Winner #7 in a Row
#11 of 14 Overall ALL Sports


UCLA Bruins -3




Adams Note: As of 10:30 pm eastern time on Thursday when I release my selection, the Bruins are -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. If your price is -3 or -3 1/2, I want you to buy the half point down on the Uclans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Legend- UCLA

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, December 27th - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
UCLA / BAYLOR UNDER 82 (Thursday, December 27th - 6:45pm) - HOLIDAY BOWL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Bowl pick: Duke + the points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Sheet

MILITARY BOWL
BOWLING GREEN (8-4) vs. SAN JOSE STATE (10-2)
San Jose State 24 - Bowling Green 23—First-ever meeting between these
two mid-major schools that made similar dramatic improvement over a two-year
period. SJS (joining MWC next season), which was 1-12 in 2010, catapulted to
10-2 this season under third-year mentor Mike MacIntrye, who has bolted to
take over the reclamation project at Colorado. Spartans’ defensive coordinator
Kent Baer (staff member since 2008) is the interim head coach. BG, which
finished 2-10 in 2010, has risen to 8-4 this campaign under 4th-year mentor
Dave Clawson, who did lead his squad to the Humanitarian Bowl in his first term
in 2009 (Falcons lost 43-42 to Idaho on 2-pt. conversion with 4 ticks left ). Both
teams ended the regular season on an uptick, the Falcons winning 7 of last 8
(following expected Sept. setbacks at Florida, Toledo & Virginia Tech) and SJS
notching 6 Ws in a row.
The potent Spartan attack (34 ppg) is expertly executed by prolific juco QB
David Fales (72%, 31 TDs, 9 ints.), who immediately developed rapport with
proven WRs Noel Grigsby (73 grabs, 9 TDs) & Chandler Jones (46 catches, 10
TDs). The ground game (only 3.5 ypc) was more of an afterthought, ranking a
lowly 102nd. The Bowling Green offense (21 ppg), led by third-year starting QB
Matt Schilz (2,496 YP, 14 TDs, 12 ints.; third all-time in school history with 7,673
YP), has reliable targets in WR Shaun Joplin (39 grabs, 4 TDs),TE Alex Bayer
(34), and blossoming 6-4 RS frosh WR Chris Gallon (47, 6 TDs), who hauled in
15 catches for 278 yds. in the last two games. The Falcons’ ground game
commands respect, thanks to slashing RB Anthony Samuel (966 YR, 10 TDs).
SJS owns the more dangerous arsenal, but the defensive advantage clearly
goes to BG’s smothering stop unit (15.8 ppg, 37 sacks), anchored by hardcharging
DT Chris Jones (MAC Defensive Player of Year; 12½ sacks), and a
trio of head-hunting LBs, Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods & Paul Swan, who
combined for 188 tackles. Falcons’ tight-covering secondary (173 ypg, 7th
nationally), spearheaded by first-team All-MAC S Jerry “BooBoo” Gates,
allowed only 9 TD passes. And while the Spartan defense (21.4 ppg), led by DE
Travis Johnson (12 sacks) & ball-hawking S Bene Benwikere (7 ints.) was
opportunistic (31 takeaways), the disciplined BG attack had only four lost
fumbles all season. Moreover, we believe the Falcons’ balanced “O” should
have sufficient success vs. the SJS stop unit, which allowed a whopping 42 ppg
vs. the quality arsenals of San Diego State, Utah State and La Tech.
So, we prefer to “take” with motivated BG (seeking first 9-win campaign
since 2004), which has performed well as a road underdog, going 12-5 in role
since 2008. And, with a strong alumni base on the East Coast and doable 500-
mile trip for Falcon nation, BG should have far greater fan support than coastto-coast
traveling SJS squad also coping with the “lost father syndrome.”
“Under” also the way to look, with Dave Clawson’s BG crew going below the
total in 15 of last 17 games!

BELK BOWL
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs. DUKE (6-6)
Cincinnati 31 - DUKE 30—Cincy finished 9-3 and in 4-way tie for first place
in the Big East. It’s the fourth time in past five years the Bearcats have captured
at least a share of the title, but L’Ville earned a spot in the Sugar Bowl by virtue
of its BCS ranking. Cincy is seeking 10 wins for the 5th time in last 6 years. But
as has been the pattern lately, Bearcat HC Butch Jones (taking over at
Tennessee) is the third consecutive coach (following Mark Dantonio & Brian
Kelly) to leave after three seasons for a higher profile job. Defensive line coach
Steve Stripling is interim coach, with Tommy Tuberville taking over. It’s a much
different deal for ascending Duke, which is “bowling” for the first time since
1994! And while the Bearcats triumphed in 4 of their last 5 games, the 6-6 Blue
Devils are limping in on the heels of 4-game losing streak, following their
bowl clinching 33-30 home upset vs. rival North Carolina way back on Oct. 20.
The Cincy offense (30 ppg) got a needed spark from the midseason QB
change from struggling Munchie Legaux to 6-4 sr. Brandon Kay (966 YP,
61.9%, 6 TDs, 2 ints.; 3-1 as starter), who is more adept on the deep ball. His
favorite target is TE Travis Kelce (40 grabs, 7 TDC), while RB George Winn (Big
East-best 1204 YR, 5.3 ypc) powers the ground assault. Cincy did lose one of
its top deep threats, WR Damon Julian (4 TDs), to season-ending ankle injury
in reg.-season finale vs. UConn.
The speedy Bearcat defense (18 ppg), spearheaded by LBs
Greg Blair & Maalik Bomar (combined 198 tackles) held its last
4 foes to a meager 11.8 ppg. But we are still reluctant to
support the Bearcats, who represent the inferior Big East conference.
The finely-tuned Duke offense (29 ppg) is led by confident
sr. QB Sean Renfree (holds or shares 14 school records), who
takes full advantage of a trio of prime-time WRs—record-breaking
Conner Vernon (ACC career leader in receptions), first-team all ACC Jamison Crowder
(70 grabs, 8 TDs) & dependable Desmond Scott (61). The Blue Devils’ flourishing pass attack
is wellequipped to trade all the way vs. the Bearcat secondary, which
faced precious few quality aerial assaults in the Big East. In fact,
Cincy lost 37-34 in OT to the league’s No. 1 passing team,
Louisville and dynamic QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is ranked
below the aforementioned Renfree.
In addition, depth-shy Duke, which wore down defensively
down the stretch, will reportedly be in much better physical
condition following the prolonged layoff. And Blue Devils’
shrewd HC David Cutlcliffe (ACC Coach of the Year) is bound
to unveil some wrinkles after recently mentioning some
position changes. Plus, Duke is absolutely thrilled to be
playing in nearby Charlotte, which is the home of 16 of its
players (29 are from the state). Blue Devils also own STs edge
with deadly K Ross Martin (18 of 20 FGs) & strong-legged P
Will Monday (44 yd. avg.). So, good bet Cincy falls to 2-8 vs.
the spread in its last 10 bowl games.

HOLIDAY BOWL
BAYLOR (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-4)
Ucla 45 - Baylor 38—First ever meeting between schools each playing for
the first time in the Holiday Bowl. UCLA’s demanding first-year HC Jim Mora
brought some swagger to his (9-4) squad, which had languished under
predecessor Rick Neuheisel, who went 21-29 in his four mostly futile seasons.
The Bruins were 9-2 before losing back-to-back games to rough and tough
Stanford in the reg.-season finale & Pac-12 Title game. Although UCLA missed
game-tying 52-yd. FG attempt in the closing minute of that Rose Bowl-deciding
27-24 loss at Palo Alto, word is Bruins have shaken it off and are excited to play
in nearby San Diego. After a choppy 4-5 start, Baylor closed on a 3-game win
streak, with impressive upset victories in Waco over No. 1 ranked Kansas State
and then-24th-ranked Oklahoma State. The Bears are competing in
postseason outside their home state for the first time since 1991!
The high-octane Baylor offense (nation-leading 578.8 ypg; 44.1 ppg) is
proficiently directed by sr. QB Nick Florence (61%, 31 TDs, 13 ints.), who
admirably filled the big shoes left by LY’s Heisman Trophy winner & TY’s prime
candidate for NFL rookie of the year, RG III. His No. 1 target is scintillating WR
Terrance Williams (95 catches for school-record 1764 yards; 12 TDs), while the
ground game picked up steam down the stretch, thanks to speedy RB Lache
Seastrunk, who had 489 YR over the last 3 games.
But we’re not convinced the Baylor offense automatically picks up where it left vs. UCLA’s
veteran, sack-happy, 3-4 defense (26 ppg; 43 sacks), spearheaded by LBs Anthony Barr (nationleading 13½ sacks; 20½ TFL) & soph Eric Kendricks (137 tackles). The seasoned Bruin secondary surprisingly allowed too many big plays, but confidence is not lacking in sr. CBs Aaron Hester & Sheldon Price, who’re out to improve their NFL stock. Two-year starting soph FS Tevin McDonald (79 tackles, 10 PBU) is solid.
On the other hand, the Bruins’ diversified spread attack (35 ppg) should continue to excel vs. the undersized, leaky Bear defense ranked 119th in total yards (513.9 ypg), 118th in pass yds. (324 ypg), and 114th in scoring (38.2 ppg), with a paltry 13 sacks. UCLA’s marvelous RS frosh dual-threat QB Brett Hundley (68.2%, 26 TDP; 365 YR & 9 TDs) & top targets WR Shaquelle Evans (53 grabs) & TE Joseph Fauria (40 receptions for 11 TDs) are well-equipped to exploit a Baylor secondary that gave up 362 YP to SMU, 656 to West Virignia (yes, 656), 381 to Iowa State, 359 to Texas Tech (OK, it was in OT) & 332 to Oklahoma State. The Bruins’ dazzling sr. RB James Franklin—the school’s all-time leading rusher—is eager to end his memorable career with an exclamation point. Also, Baylor owns a shakier kicking game with unreliable Aaron Jones (16 of 27 FGs), so we envision well-supported UCLA reaching the coveted 10-win plateau for the first time since 2005. Recommend the “over,” since the squads are a combined 17-7 “over” TY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Playbook Marc Lawrence

MILITARY BOWL
RFK Stadium • Washington, DC
Bowling Green over San Jose St by 1
Like the Chippewas, the Bee Gees are another 17 returning starter bowl
dog taking 4 or more points. However, what makes these defensiveminded dogs
dangerous is the fact that they held seven of their last eight
opponents to season-low – or 2nd low – yardage in 2012. And though the
surging Spartans (4-0 SU and ATS last four) are led by QB David Fales – No. 3
in the country in passing effi ciency (170.91) – our PLAYBOOK.com database
sides with the strong stop-unit in this case as it notes: bowl teams off three
or more ATS wins are 10-33-1 ATS against teams who allow 22 or less points
on the season if the foe scored 21 or less points in its last game. And like
the scenario in the Little Caesar’s Bowl, the Falcons are another MAC squad
having the luxury of facing a team guided by a defensive coordinator as
Kent Baer takes over for the departed Mike MacIntyre, who is hoping to
stir a buzz in Colorado. That may be too much of a burden to ‘Baer’ for
the Spartans as .666 or greater MAC bowlers off a SU win are 13-4 SU and
12-4-1 ATS. And while they have come a long way in two years (won one
game in 2010), how many of their fans will actually know the way from San
Jose to Washington, D.C.? Not many – so we’ll put a ’hundred down’ as the
Bee Gees get the support, as well as the win, in this Upset Special.

BELK BOWL
Bank of America Stadium • Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati over Duke by 4
Holy canine. The farther we go with this week’s bowl card, the more it
resembles a Westminster Dog Show – both for the number of mongrel
matchups involved and our proclivity for fading favorites. Keeping with
that theme, we’ll take a good look at Duke today, a mangy mutt if there
ever was one. The Blue Devils are playing in the postseason for the fi rst time
since 1995 and a defeat here will mark their fi fth straight to close out the
2012 season – and saddle them with yet another losing season. Sounds like
a lot to overcome, especially against a UC squad where bowling has become
old hat (sixth bowl in the last seven years). But not all is peachy with the
Bearcats: head coach Butch Jones followed in Brian Kelly’s shoes when he
took the money and ran (Tennessee Vols), leaving DL coach Steve Stripling to
oversee this game (Cincinnati has since hired Texas Tech’s Tommy Tuberville
to take over in 2013). Though Jones’ departure is being downplayed, it will
clearly be a distraction leading up to today’s bout. Worse is the fact that
nearly all meaningful ATS history leans to the Blue Devils. Despite Cincy’s
familiarity with postseason play, the unfortunate truth is the Bearcats are a
paltry 2-7 ATS as bowlers since the turn of the century. In conference terms,
Big East squads are a woeful 3-14 ATS vs .750 or less ACC opponents and
just 2-8 ATS as favorites versus the ACC in bowl games. Meanwhile, ACC
bowl teams off back-to-back SUATS losses are 9-2 ATS since 1990, including
6-0 ATS off a conference loss.
Finally, Duke coach Cutcliffe owns a morethan-respectable 5-1 SUATS record
as a bowler (3-0 SUATS as a dog). Put it all together and we can overlook
the Durham Devils’ disturbing -108 net YPG effort in the 2nd half of the regular season.
With somewhat of a ‘home field’ edge in this contest
(Duke campus 144 miles from Charlotte), we won’t be surprised to see these mongrels
earn ATS Best in Show honors.

HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium • San Diego, CA
Ucla over Baylor by 7
Forget about strength versus strength: here’s a bowl matchup that pits
weakness against weakness. In this case, it’s a UCLA offensive line that
allowed the most sacks of all bowlers this year – a whopping 46 – squaring
off with a Baylor pass rush that couldn’t fi nd the opposing quarterback with
a GPS (only 13 sacks registered all season). Though the Bears get a mulligan
because they own the No. 1 offense in the bowls at 570 yards per game, they
immediately knock it right back out-of-bounds with a bowl-worst defense
that gets ripped for 523 YPG. It’s pretty much a stalemate, too, comparing
recent ATS results in today’s roles. Baylor’s 6-1 ATS log off a win versus Pac-
10/12 foes is immediately offset by the fact that Big 12 bowl teams off a
win have gone just 6-10 ATS against Pac-10/12 opponents. And UCLA’s 5-1
ATS success as bowl pick or dog is negated by Jim Mora Jr’s inexperience as
1st-year coaches off a loss are 7-18 ATS when taking on a winning bowler.
Yes, the Bruins fashioned a fi ne 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS mark versus fellow bowl
teams this year but they were also outgained in three of the season’s fi nal
four games. Leave it to our powerful database to supply the tiebreaker –
UCLA stands 7-2 ATS against a Big 12 foe off a win, including 5-0 ATS as a
favorite or dog of 3 or fewer points. That little gem, coupled with the putrid
stench of Baylor’s defense, should put us on the winning side in today’s
battle of the bears. Just don’t forget to sign your scorecard…

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise

CINCINNATI (9-3) vs DUKE (6-6)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
6:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
This marks the 2nd year for this particular bowl, with the Meineke moving from
Charlotte to Houston in '11. The original Belk saw NCSt (-2) take a 31-10 lead
over Louisville in the 3rd, before holding on for a 31-24 win, despite just 65
RYs. The hosts for this one, of course, are the Blue Devils of Duke, who not
only play in their first holiday affair since 1994, but, in the process, are also
snapping the nation's longest bowl-less streak. And they did it with a stunning
come-from-behind 33-30 win over NoCaro, on a Renfree pass in the final
0:13. The Imps posted 28 FDs, 234 RYs, 276 PYs, & punted just twice in that
quality victory, which gave them a record of 6-2, with their only losses coming
at Stanford & VirginiaTech. And they also garnered a few votes in the weekly
Coaches Poll. But fame sure was fleeting, as they dropped their final 4 games,
with a 198-96 pt deficit. And they were outrushed 1,178-416 in those 4, albeit
vs the likes of FlaSt, Clemson, FlaSt, & Miami. At season's end, Duke ranked
108th, 105th, & 103rd in rushing, total & scoring "D". Renfree & little else.
The Bearcats of Cincinnati had to replace 11 starters from LY's 10-3 team, but
Jones led them to a 5-0 start, ranking 18th in the land, before a 4-3 windup.
Still their 6th bowl game over the past 7 years, including spots in the '08 & '09
Orange & Sugar. Replacing QB Collaros & RB Pead was a tall order. But
Winn is just 55 yds short of Pead, & altho the signal-calling has been a project
all season, it still provides enough yardage for an enviously balanced "O".
Departure of the aforementioned Jones hasn't helped, & note Cincy failing to
cover any of its last 3 bowl fav roles. We'll take the 7½ pts with the host here.
PROPHECY: Cincinnati 31 - DUKE 30 RATING: 6

U.C.L.A. (9-4) vs BAYLOR (7-5)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
9:45 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
Barnburner? Shootout? Choose whichever adjective that you wish, to properly
describe the history of this particular bowl, & you will be right. A string of
sensational scoreboard lighters has been the norm, & this year will not be any
different. As a matter of fact, all previous standards may just be smashed by
the time these 2 leave the field. This is the 3rd straight bowl season for the
Bears of Baylor, after making it back-to-back seasons last year for the 1st time
since '91-'92. Replacing the brilliant Robert Griffin III is simply impossible
(4,293 PYs, 72%, 37/6, 699 RYs), but Baylor has surprised everyone, ranking
2nd, 5th, & 3rd in total, scoring, & passing "O", as compared to 2nd, 3rd, & 5th
in '11. Almost identical. As a matter of fact, a year ago, the above Baylor stats
were: 44-36 AVS; 29-24 FDs, 216-200 RYs, 356-279 PYs. Simply amazing!
QB Florence is no RG3, but try #1 in the land in total "O" (4,652 TYs): 4,121
RYs, 61%, 31/13. But, as we know, that "D" is lethal: 2nd & 12th worst in total,
scoring (5th, 12th LY). Result: breathtaking 67-56 bowl win LY, as a 9-pt chalk.
The Bruins, with their nicely balanced & 20th ranked "O", are led by QB Hundley
(3,411 yds, 68%, 26/11) & RB Franklin (1,700 yds, 6.3 ypr, 13 TDs). Their
signature were over Nebraska, ArizonaSt, Arizona, & SoCal. In those 4,
Hundley was a combined 12/1, while Franklin ran for 165 ypg. No reason that
they can't run wild vs this "D", but note that Baylor did hold KansSt to 76 RYs,
in that 52-24 upset (Wildcats' only loss): 40½ pt cover. Defensively, the Uclans
rank a so-so 74th, but the Bears would love such a slot. All that the folks could
hope for. Last team with the ball may win it, so we'll give the nod to the host.
PROPHECY: UCLA 59 - Baylor 55 RATING: 6

4* S.JOSE ST.31 - Bowling Green 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Powersweep

2★: BOWLING GREEN (+) over SJ St.

4★: DUKE (+) over Cincinnati

2★: UCLA over Baylor

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast
Power Plays

MILITARY BOWL Thursday, December 27th • 3:00 pm ESPN • RFK Stadium

BOWLING GREEN (8-4) Washington, DC SAN JOSE ST (10-2)
While the Spartans enter this matchup as a td favorite, the yds actually say the Falcons as they are forecasted to outgain SJSt by a 338-332 mark and are happy to be here after questions about whether or not they would be selected for the post season. BG keeps this contest within a td.
3* BOWLING GREEN 19 (+) SAN JOSE ST 25

BELK BOWL
CINCINNATI (9-3) Charlotte, NC DUKE (6-6)

The Bearcats will be playing without their head coach here while the Blue Devils are ecstatic to be back in a bowl after an 18 yr layoff. Cincy and Duke are forecasted to rack up nearly 900 total yards and we agree in this probable shootout.
4* OVER CINCINNATI 35 DUKE 27

HOLIDAY BOWL Thursday, December 27th • 9:45 pm ESPN • Qualcomm Stadium
BAYLOR (7-5) San Diego, CA UCLA (9-4)

2nd consecutive year that Baylor is facing a P12 team in the post ssn (67-56 win over Wash in LY’s Alamo). This isn’t your average UCLA offense, however, and PP agrees as while the yardage forecast is nearly even, the Bruins have the narrow point edge and are fairly close to home.
1* UCLA 43 BAYLOR 40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Points

MILITARY BOWL (at Washington, DC)
San Jose State over Bowling Green by 9
Bowling Green won seven of their last eight games to finish 8-4. QB Matt Schilz
was a steady hand and RB Anthon Samuel had a solid season, but the Falcons
earned their spurs with a rock-ribbed defense that held seven opponents under 200
yards. Chris Jones was a disruptive force in the interior of the BG DL. Despite
these numbers, we’re inclined to lay the points.
San Jose State had the unusual distinction of winning road games in all four continental time zones.
The most noteworthy was a 12-0 whitewash of Navy in nearby Annapolis.
The Spartans held the Midshipmen to 144 yards. Juco transfer David Fales, who initially signed with
Nevada, is the nation’s most accurate quarterback, completing 72.1 percent of his
throws. Fales exhibits great poise in the pocket as he demonstrated vs. Utah State,
completing 38 of 50 for 407 yards despite being under constant duress. DE Travis
Johnson currently leads all active players in career sacks and freshman Austin Lopez
is 15-for-15 in the FG department (vs. 7-of-15 for his BG counterparts). The
Spartans went toe-to-toe with Stanford and ultimately played the stronger schedule.
The departure of HC Mike MacIntyre to Colorado is a red flag, but interim
coach Kent Baer is popular with the players and (at press time) was on the short
list of candidates to replace MacIntyre, making this game an audition.
SAN JOSE STATE 28-19

BELK BOWL (at Charlotte, NC)
Cincinnati over Duke by 3
It’s hard to build a case for Duke, a bowl virgin of sorts. The 6-6 Blue Devils finished fifth in a 6-team division inhabited by two superior teams saddled with postseason bans. Moreover, Duke lost their last four starts by an average of 25.5 points
– games in which the defense was shredded for 2373 yards (1178 rushing). By contrast, Cincinnati finished 9-3, was competitive in every game, and held six opponents under 400 yards. However, can we trust Cincinnati? The Bearcats have an
unproven QB – likely starter Brendan Kay has only four starts under his belt – lost
DE Walter Stewart, their best defensive player, at mid-season, and will be piloted
by an interim coach, the well-traveled Steve Stripling. Who knows what changes
Tommy Tuberville will make and the uncertainty is potentially a large distraction.
In Duke’s favor, few teams have been hit harder by injuries and the team figures to
be somewhat healthier coming off a 33-day break. They own a substantial edge at
QB. Sean Renfree (34 career starts) is projected to be a mid-round draft pick, as is
his roommate, slot receiver Connor Vernon. It theoretically helps that this game is
being staged in the heart of ACC country. Cincinnati was unable to sell their full
allotment of tickets to LY’s Liberty Bowl and there will be more empty seats on
their side of the stadium. CINCINNATI 31-28.

HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, CA)
U.C.L.A. over Baylor by 4
Once again, Baylor cranked up the juice in the homestretch to land an attractive
bowl bid. The Bears emerged from a mid-season slump with a resounding burst,
covering the spot in their last five starts, a development keyed by Lache Seastrunk’s
increased workload. Living up to his high school press clippings, the Oregon transfer averaged 8.1 yards per carry over the final five games. QB Nick Florence also
played well, no surprise as he started as a true freshman in 2009 before being overtaken by the incredible RG3. However, Baylor’s shabby defense has us leaning
toward their opponent. Yes, the Bears overcame that defect in LY’s Alamo Bowl,
upending Washington, but this year’s “D” is even flimsier, allowing 513.9 YPG.
UCLA brings more to the table than the 2011 edition that finished 6-8. The captain of the UCLA ship for UCLA’s bowl game LY was first-year assistant Mike
Johnson, a fellow who had been dismissed by the 49ers and wouldn’t be retained
by incoming coach Jim Mora. Mora was smart to demote QB Kevin Prince in favor
of the more talented Brett Huntley. He operates behind an OL fortified by a new
old face in Xavier Su’a-Filo, back from his Mormon mission. Converting backup
RB Anthony Barr into a linebacker was a stroke of genius. Can the Bruins regroup
after coming ever-so-close to hosting the Rose Bowl? We like their chances at this
in-state venue. UCLA 38-34.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Betting Sheet

2012-13 Bowl Season

Plays based upon a five-point scale. Plays over a 4.0 are strong plays.
Plays above 4.5 are mandatory plays.
SEASON RECORD: 53-36-1

Military Bowl: San Jose State Aztecs 26
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS 24 (3:00 ET 12/27) – San Jose State opened at -7 and has held right there in spite of the fact that 58% of the betting action is on its side. Bowling Green has the best defense in the MAC, and it has an offense led by QB Matt Schilz that can do some damage. San Jose State might have been the best or second best team in the WAC this year, but BGSU is 7-1 SU and ATS in its L/8 games.
BOWLING GREEN +7 Rating: 4.5/5

Holiday Bowl: UCLA Bruins 49
Baylor Bears 45 (9:45 ET 12/27) – The 'total' opened at 76.5 and shot up quickly to 79.5. Is either team going to stop the other in this one. Baylor averages a total of 1,098 yards and 82.2 points per game. UCLA averages 885 yards and 61.0 points per game combined. Take away the two games against a solid Stanford defense, and the Bruins averaged 77.5 PPG in the last month and a half of the season. This game is very likely to get into the 80s or the 90s.
OVER 79.5 Rating: 4.1/5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Statfox

Bowling Green Falcons 17
San Jose State Spartans 24

Cincinnati Bearcats 39
Duke Blue Devils 21

Baylor Bears 38
UCLA Bruins 42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 29th
Belk Bowl: BOA Stadium Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati (-7) vs. Duke 6:30 ET ESPN

5* Duke +7
This is our 3rd consecutive bowl analysis which finds a coaching change for the favorite and a site advantage for the underdog. They are solid edges that we will use for another ATS victory with Duke. I am fully aware that Duke has not won a game since October 20th when they clinched their bowl bid with a 33-30 upset of rival North Carolina. Facing their usual attrition and with the schedule becoming far more rigorous, they finished 0-4 SU, ATS losing by 41 to Florida State, 36 to Clemson, 18 to Georgia Tech and 7 to Miami, FL. In those games, they allowed just under 50 PPG (that may be a clue as to my Total opinion on this game). Now, they step down in class to face the type of team against whom they started the season 6-2 SU. There is no doubt they will be pumped to play their first bowl since 1994 in nearby Charlotte. The Bearcats finished 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in a 4 way tie for the BIG EAST title. This has been a highly successful program under 3 coaches, who should they win this game, will have won 10 games in 5/6 seasons. Much like previous coaches, however, 3rd year HC Jones has used this program as a spring board to a better job. He has been hired as head man at Tennessee. Though Tommy Tuberville (Texas Tech) has been hired as his replacement, DL Coach Steve Stripling will serve as the interim coach for this Bowl. On the field, the Bearcats got a midseason boost from the insertion of QB Kay in place of QB Legaux. It loosened the reins of the Bearcat offense as they scored 27 points in 5/6 final games. They will no doubt have success against the Duke defense allowing 462 yards. But the Devils did not make their money with their stop unit. That came with a passing attack led by QB Renfree that averaged 31 PPG. Highly respected HC Cutcliffe, named ACC Coach of the Year, is known as a brilliant offensive mind who is bound to have some tricks up his sleeve for this Bowl game. Combination of the Duke passing attack, playing as underdog in their home state, and the Cincinnati coaching change makes this an underdog call on the BlueDevils.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Holiday Bowl Winner From Spartan

I am going to go with the Holiday Bowl as my free selection.
If you like defense, then turn away from this one and tune into something else because this one is not for you. I am going to cut right to the quick here.
I like Art Briles and his Baylor Bears to take care of business here against UCLA.
Too bad the Bears could not put together more efforts like the one they exhibited against Kansas State back on November 17th when they took to the field as an 11.5 point dog and manhandled the Wildcats destroying any hopes K-State had of appearing in the national title game. I thought Nick Florence did a helluva job this fall stepping into the QB role following Griffin. Talk about monster shoes to fill. But in the end he did throw for over 4,000 yards and fire off 31 TD passes and even rushed himself for a stellar 531 yards. In my opinion for the Bruins to have their best chance in this shootout is to put pressure on Florence and that could be much easier said than done. The Baylor offensive line did a more than reasonable job this season keeping Florence upright considering he tossed a total 451 times and was sacked a mere 16 times over the duration of the season to date. In the final analysis I cannot see the Bruins keeping pace here. The Baylor defense, although nobody will be comparing them to Bama anytime soon, was making progress as the year moved along. Just ask Bill Snyder and any of his Wildcats. This should be an entertaining one, if you like lot's of points, but I see Baylor pulling away and prevailing 47-34. Unless the Bears have a horrific night with turnovers, they will leave San Diego celebrating a nice Bowl winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

Play. #220 Take Duke Blue Devils +7.5 over Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl, 12/27, 6:30 pm ESPN)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

#218 San Jose State (-7) over Bowling Green (3 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

#220 Duke (+7.5) over Cincinnati (6:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Thunder won its last ten home games (7-3 vs spread).
-- Clippers won their last 14 games (6-1 last 7 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Mavericks lost six of their last seven games (1-3 last four as AU).
-- Celtics lost five of last six road games (1-4 last five as AU).

Totals
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total; Thunder's last four games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Clipper games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Visitors won three of last four FAU-Troy games; Owls won last two visits here, by 88-67/82-77ot. 4-7 Florida Atlantic is 3-2 vs teams not in top 200, losing by by 20 at Miss State, by 1 at home to Stetson. Troy is getting to foul line less than any team in country; they've lost six of last seven games- their best win was against #210 SE Missouri State.
-- Home side won last seven ULL-Arkansas State games; Ragin' Cajuns lost last three visits here, by 5-9-2 points. ULL is 1-6 on road, but won Sun Belt road opener at North Texas; best team they've beaten is #168 Oakland. State lost its first two league games, by 19-7 points, both vs teams not in top 200; four of last five games were decided by 7 or less. .
-- FIU is playing fifth road game in row; they've played #76 schedule, but young Pitino needs some home games- Panthers force turnovers on 23.9% of possessions, but foes shoot 55% from floor against them. FIU won at Western Kentucky LY, its first win in last nine tries vs WKU, with last three losses at WKU by 7-17-13 points.
-- 12-1 New Mexico just lost at home to South Dakota State; they're 2-0 on road, winning in OT at Indiana State, by 5 at New Mexico State- they lost by 3 in NCAAs LY to another Big East team (Louisville). Cincinnati is 12-0, 4-0 vs top 100 teams, winning by 8-11-2-15 points; Bearcats are experienced, but played #324 schedule so far. Lobos played sked #123.

-- Rhode Island won four of last six games after 0-5 start; they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11-5-3-15 points. Rams are 1-2 on road, with 19-point loss at Va Tech, 15 at Providence, double OT win at Auburn. St Mary's has a 58.6 eFG%, #2 in country; they're 5-0 at home, with a 86-68 win closest win. Seven of Gaels' eight wins are by 12+ points.
-- 4-7 Fort Wayne is 3-4 vs teams not in top 200; they're 1-6 on road, with only win by four at #286 Dartmouth; Mastadons are 2-10 in last 12 games vs IUPUI, losing five of last six here, with three of last four in this gym decided by 3 or less points. Five of Fort Wayne's losses are by 10+ points. IUPUI lost nine of its last ten games vs D-I teams.
-- Oakland won 11 of last 12 games vs Western Illinois, winning last five in this gym, by 4-23-4-25-14 points; they won here in double OT LY, after losing to Leathernecks at home- gap has narrowed between teams. Grizzlies are 3-8 vs #4 schedule in country; they're 2-2 vs teams ranked below #150. WIU won its last five games, allowing average of 54.2 ppg.
-- BYU thrashed Northern Arizona 87-52 LY; all four of Cougars' losses are to teams in top 75- they're 6-0 vs teams not in top 150, winning by 15-18-19-12-25-3 points. NAU lost by 46 at Colorado last game, after splitting pair of Big Sky games; they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10-38-43-47 points. Four of seven NAU losses are by 10 points or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

goodfella

3* bowl goy ucla pk

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

New Mexico at Cincinnati

The Lobos look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. New Mexico is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7). Here are all of today's games.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 505-506: Florida Atlantic at Troy (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 46.283; Troy 47.800
Dunkel Line: Troy by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+3 1/2)


Game 507-508: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 49.280; Arkansas State 57.336
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 8
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-6 1/2)


Game 509-510: Florida International at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 51.663; Western Kentucky 60.129
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-6)


Game 511-512: New Mexico at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 68.238; Cincinnati 72.669
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 135
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7); Over


Game 513-514: Rhode Island at St. Mary's (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.156; St. Mary's 72.817
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 16
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-16)


Game 515-516: IPFW at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 47.884; IUPUI 50.389
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: IUPUI by 1
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (-1)


Game 517-518: Oakland at Western Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.847; Western Illinois 63.475
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-6)


Game 519-520: Northern Arizona at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 44.452; BYU 61.856
Dunkel Line: BYU by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 20
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+20)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 18 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 8-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-3 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 1047-346 (.752)
ATS: 418-395 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2453-2295 (.517)
Over/Under: 375-362 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1237-887 (.582)

Thursday, December 27, 2012
Military Bowl
at RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
San Jose State 26, Bowling Green State 18

Belk Bowl
at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati 35, Duke 22

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Baylor 51, Ucla 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/27/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 276-132 (.676)
ATS: 207-207 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 671-595 (.530)
Over/Under: 213-200 (.516)
Over/Under Vary Units: 376-317 (.543)

OKLAHOMA CITY 110, Dallas 95
L.A. CLIPPERS 98, Boston 88

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Western Kentucky (-6) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s San Jose State. The deficit is 1138 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 954 - 711 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner THURS: BYU -20 College HOOP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

BYU -20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Boston at LA Clippers

The Clippers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is coming off a 93-76 win over Brooklyn and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 501-502: Dallas at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 111.314; Oklahoma City 128.311
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 17; 216
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 503-504: Boston at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.206; LA Clippers 131.933
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
UCLA -150 over Baylor
(System Record: 42-4, lost last 6 games)
Overall Record: 42-50-4



Soccer Crusher
Anderlecht + Lierse OVER 3
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 332-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 332-293-39

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, December 27

NBA TNT doubleheader: Mavs at Thunder, Celtics at Clippers


Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-11, 208)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost back-to-back games for the first time this season and seek to get back on the winning track when they host the struggling Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. The Thunder fell to the Miami Heat on Christmas Day and no longer have the NBA’s best record after the Los Angeles Clippers won later Tuesday night. Dallas has lost three straight and six of seven after a season-worst 129-91 loss to San Antonio on Sunday.

Star forward Dirk Nowitzki played for the first time this season in the loss to the Spurs. Nowitzki missed the first 27 games of the campaign after October knee surgery and scored eight points off the bench. Oklahoma City won 12 consecutive contests before the two straight defeats. “I’m proud of how they compete and they never let up,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. “Never. I’ve never been disappointed in this team with how they compete.” The Thunder have won 10 straight home games since losing to the Memphis Grizzlies on Nov. 14.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (12-16, 13-15 ATS): Nowitzki played 20 minutes in his first game and the plan is to slowly increase his minutes. Dallas has adjusted to playing without him and Nowitzki is aware that an adjustment period is necessary. “It’s probably going to take me a week or two getting my legs and wind,” Nowitzki said. “And hopefully I can help a little more, but we need some work.” Guard O.J. Mayo is averaging a team-best 19.3 points but has slumped recently and also is dealing with the flu.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (21-6, 16-10-1 ATS): Forward Kevin Durant scored 33 points against Miami and Russell Westbrook tallied 21 to mark the 14th time the two standouts have scored 20 or more points in the same contest. Oklahoma City is 11-3 in those games. Reserve guard Kevin Martin returned from a one-game absence due to a quadriceps injury to score 15 points. He has a 17.9 career average in 18 games against Dallas. Durant is averaging 21.4 points in 17 regular-season contests against the Mavericks, well below his career mark of 26.4.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Mavericks are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Road team is 36-15-2 ATS in the last 53 meetings.
* Underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Oklahoma City has won four of the last five regular-season meetings in addition to last season’s playoff sweep of the Mavericks.

2. Thunder F Serge Ibaka had just one blocked shot against Miami. Oklahoma City is 12-3 when he rejects three or more shots.

3. Mayo is just 9-of-33 from the field over the last three games while averaging only 8.3 points.



Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5, 190)

The Los Angeles Clippers attempt to extend their franchise-record winning streak to 15 games on Thursday when they host the Boston Celtics. Los Angeles surged a half-game ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the league's best record with its 14th straight victory, a 112-100 home triumph over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. The Clippers have not lost since dropping a 105-98 decision to the New Orleans Hornets at home on Nov. 26.

Boston kicked off its four-game road trip Tuesday with a 93-76 win over the Brooklyn Nets. The victory halted the Celtics' five-game losing streak away from home. It also was the team's second in its last six contests overall. Boston concludes its trek with games at Golden State and Sacramento on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE CELTICS (14-13, 10-15-2 ATS): Forward Paul Pierce is poised to move past Elgin Baylor for 24th place on the all-time scoring list. With 23,144 career points, Pierce needs just five to surpass Baylor and is 34 away from overtaking Adrian Dantley for 23rd place. Forward Kevin Garnett is expected to play in his 1,283rd career game Thursday, which would give him sole possession of 15th place on the all-time list. He currently is tied with Charles Oakley. Garnett also will climb within three games of Sam Perkins for 14th place.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (22-6, 18-10 ATS): Guard Jamal Crawford scored a team-high 22 points in Tuesday's victory. It marked the 12th time this season he has contributed 20 or more points off the bench. Forward Matt Barnes scored in double figures for the eighth straight game, pouring in 20 off the bench. Los Angeles is 16-0 when Barnes comes off the bench and reaches double digits. The Clippers scored a season-high 42 points in the second quarter against Denver. Their previous high for points in a quarter was 35.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
* Celtics are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Boston has won three of the last four meetings between the teams.

2. Clippers G Chris Paul leads the league with 76 steals and an average of 2.7 per game.

3. Los Angeles has won 10 games during its streak by 12 points or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MILTARY BOWL (BOWL GAME #9)

3:00PM Bowling Green vs San Jose State
[217] UNDER 44 -113

GOODFELLAS

BELK BOWL (BOWL GAME #10)

6:30PM Cincinnati U vs Duke
[219] Cincinnati U -7 -110

MARC

BELK BOWL (BOWL GAME #10)

6:30PM Cincinnati U vs Duke
[219] (LIGHTS OUT - 2 UNIT PLAY) OVER 60 -105

HOLIDAY BOWL (BOWL GAME #11)

9:45PM Baylor vs UCLA
[221] OVER 81.5 -103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

4* UCLA

2* Duke

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You Regular Service Selections for Thursday, December 27th

2012 Military Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Bowling Green/San Jose State under 44

2012 BELK Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Cincinnati/Duke under 60 1/2

2012 Holiday Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Baylor/UCLA under 81 1/2

NBA Best Bets
Dallas/Oklahoma City under 203
Boston/LA Clippers over 189

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Platinum Plays.




500K Bowl Lock

the Cincinnati Bearcats -9 over
the Duke Blue Devils

Best Bets



the Bowling Green Falcons +7 over
the San Jose St Spartans

the Baylor Bears +3 over
the UCLA Bruins

the Bowling Green/San Jose St Game OVER
the Total Of 44 Points

the Cincinnati/Duke Game OVER
the Total Of 60½ Points




PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Baylor/UCLA Game OVER
the Total Of 81½ Points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA BOSTON at LA CLIPPERS

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

NBA BOSTON at LA CLIPPERS

Play On - Any team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
139-61 since 1997. ( 69.5% 49.7 units )

NBA BOSTON at LA CLIPPERS

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The pro source
12-1 ncaaf run

bowling green +7 ** top play **
baylor/ucla over 78

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

IUPUI -1 over IPFW

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB N ARIZONA at BYU

Play On - A road team (N ARIZONA) after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )

CBB OAKLAND at W ILLINOIS

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (OAKLAND) off a road win, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season.
58-82 over the last 5 seasons. ( 41.4% 49.3 units )
1-5 this year. ( 16.7% -4.0 units )

CBB NEW MEXICO at CINCINNATI

Play Under - Road teams against the total after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
268-169 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.3% 82.1 units )
11-2 this year. ( 84.6% 8.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

UCLA -3 over Baylor: That’s mainly because they can play some defense. The UCLA defense isn’t special overall as they have allowed 26 ppg and 410 ypg, but that is FAR better than a Baylor defense that has allowed 523 ypg and 38 ppg on the year. Versus this year’s bowl squad it’s even worse as the Bruins have allowed 28 ppg and 412 ypg, while Baylor’s defense has allowed 42 ppg and 552 ypg. That is unreal and it’s the UCLA defense that gives them a big edge here. The offensive edge does go to Baylor, but UCLA’s offense is no slouch as they have averaged a healthy 35 ppg overall, including 37 ppg vs bowl teams. The Bruins have more than enough firepower to put up allot of points on this Baylor defense, while the Bruin defense will come up with enough stops to get the cover in this one.

Duke/ Cincinnati Over 60.5: The Bearcat offense has been one of the best in the Big East this year, as they have averaged 430.8 ypg and 31 ppg. Tonight they have a huge chance on increasing those numbers as they face a Duke squad that was horrible on defense down the stretch. For the year the Blue Devils come in 105th in total defense (462 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35 ppg), but in their last 4 games this unit has been horrendous, allowing 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg over that stretch. Offensively, Duke has been a solid group led by Sean Renfree. The Blue Devils have averaged 31.3 ppg on the year and capped their regular season by putting up 45 points on Miami. Duke is thrilled to be in the bowl game and you can bet they will go all out offensively to win it. The Bearcats will score a bunch off of this weak duke defense, while the Devils will get their share of points off a good Cincinnati defense. Duke games have averaged 66 ppg, with 9 of their 12 games putting up 61 or more points. I expect 65+ in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Duke +9.5 over Cincinnati

[bhn2bill]

Anyone got ATS bowl lock today??

[DaKid]

Big Al

5* Bowling Green
3* Duke, UCLA

Thank you much!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 44.5 San Jose/ Bowling Green

100* St Mary's -16.5

100* New Mexico +6.5

50* Over 190 Clippers/ Celtics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS

My 10* Goin' Over Total is on Bowling Green/San Jose St Over at 3:00 ET.
San Jose State closed the 2011 season with a home win over Navy and a road win at Fresno St to finish 5-7. That’s was quite a turnaround for head coach Mike MacIntyre. He inherited a team which was 2-10 in 2009 and in his first season (2010), went only 1-12. So without a doubt, last year’s 5-7 record was quite an achievement. The Spartans dropped their 2012 season-opener against local foe Stanford by only 20-17 (as almost four-TD underdogs), but by year's end, would finish 10-2.(only other loss was 49-27 to Utah St). MacIntyre's stunning turnaround at San Jose State, allowed him to move to a more high-profile job, as he was named the coach at Colorado. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer will be the team's interim coach for this game. Dave Clawson went backwards a bit after a solid first season with Bowling Green, but the fourth-year coach now has his program on the upswing.Clawson took over at Bowling Green in 2009 and went 7-6 with a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl his first season. Campaigns of 2-10 and 5-7 followed before the Falcons went 8-4 this year, their first eight-win season since 2007. Early expected losses came against Florida and Va Tech but the Falcons would win SEVEN of their final eight, losing only to Kent St, which was 11-1 (8-0 in the MAC) before losing the MAC championship game in OT to Sugar-bowl bound Northern Illinois. Bowling Green can't match San Jose St's offensive 'weapons,' but the Falcons were able to average 28.5 PPG over their final eight games. SJSU's QB Fales has been terrific (72.1% / 31-9 ratio) and the Spartans have averaged 35.8 PPG, reaching at least 30 points eight times and 40 or more, EIGHT times. Since the team's last loss (Oct 13), the Spartans have averaged 40.7 PPG over their final six. Keeping this total "well within range" is the fact that Dave Clawson's team has gone under in 15 of its last 17 games. That changes here in an entertaining Military Bowl.just like in Clawson's first bowl trip with the Falcons, a 43-42 Humanitarian Bowl loss to Idaho in 2009.

My LEGEND Play is on UCLA at 9:45 ET,

UCLA made strides in its first season under coach Jim Mora but couldn't handle Stanford in the season's final two games, getting beat 35-17 on Nov 24 at home in the Rose Bowl and then 27-24 win in the conference championship game the following week up in Palo Alto. The Bruins played an excellent game at Stanford, only losing when freshman Ka'imi Fairbairn missed a 52-yard field-goal attempt in the closing minute. Let's NOT forget just how good this Stanford team is! Baylor wasn't sure what to expect without Heisman-winner RG3 in 2012. The Bears opened 3-0 but their AWFUL defense led the way to them dropping FOUR in a row and FIVE of their next six. The Bears hardly looked like a bowl team at 4-5 but Baylor finished on a three-game win streak which began with a 52-24 victory Nov 17 over Kansas State when KSU was ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings. Baylor followed with a 52-45 OT win at Cowboys Stadium over Texas Tech, then concluded its season with a 41-34 win over then-No. 24 Oklahoma State on Dec 1. The Bears entered the bowl season No. 1 in total offense (578.8 YPG), with excellent balance. QB Nick Florence ain't RG3 but he's pretty darn good. He's thrown for 4,121 yards with 31 TDs and just 13 INTs plus added 531 yards rushing (9 TDs). The Bears average 225.1 YPG on the ground (5.1 YPC) as two RBs contribute, Seastrunk (874 / 7.6 YPC / 6 TDs) and Martin (791 / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs). Baylor averages 44.1 PPG (5th-most) and will likely need to come close to that average vs UCLA, as the Baylor D allows the second-most total yards (513.9 YPG) and 38.2 PPG (115th). Jim Mora, Jr replaced Rick Neuheisel (21-29 in four seasons) and led the Bruins to the Pac-12 South title, where they lost to the Cardinal. UCLA was 9-2 before those back-to-back losses to Stanford, led by QB Hundley and RB Franklin. Hundley completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and his 26 TDs were second most in a season in school history. He also ran for 365 yards with nine TDs. Franklin set career bests this season with 1,700 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs (6.3 YPC), 32 receptions, 319 receiving yards and a pair of TD catches. UCLA can't quite match Baylor's firepower but the Bruins are averaging 35.1 PPG and while UCLA's defense allows 25.9 PPG, that's almost two TDs less than Baylor's sieve-like unit. All indications are that Bruins have shaken off their losses to the Cardinal and are excited to play in nearby San Diego. After Neuheisel left the program in a mess, few could have predicted that Mora would lead TY's team to nine wins. One more here and it's UCLA's first 10-win season since 2005. Take the Bruins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins
Point Spread - Pick

Baylor Bears (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. No. 17 UCLA Bruins (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Holiday Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 9:45 p.m. EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Bay pk/UCLA pk
Over/Under Total: 80.5

The 17th-ranked UCLA Bruins are the kings of Los Angeles this year for the first time in five seasons, and they can earn their first 10-win season since 2005, but they'll have to score a ton of points to do it when they take on the Baylor Bears in the Holiday Bowl in Qualcomm Stadium on December 27th on ESPN.

The Bruins won three more games this year than last year under first-year head coach Jim Mora, but still fell short of their goal when they lost to Stanford twice to close out the season, including the second time in the PAC-12 title game, 27-24, for the chance to go to the Rose Bowl. Now Mora will have to try and keep the Bruins focused and motivated for "just" the Holiday Bowl, although a shot at a 10-win campaign and the short drive down to San Diego should help give UCLA an advantage.

In order for UCLA to reach those goals though, they will have to beat the Baylor Bears and the No. 1-ranked offense in college football that piles up an average of 579 yards a game. Quarterback Nick Florence has successfully replaced Robert Griffin III, and he'll lead the high-powered Bears offense into their third straight bowl game and try and continue the three-game win streak that has gotten them into the second season.

Baylor started their win streak with a huge upset win over then-No. 1 Kansas State, 52-24, back on November 17th. With an average score of 48 points during the win streak, and fresh off of last year's record-setting performance in a win over Washington in the Alamo Bowl (won 67-56 and set record more most points in a regulation bowl game), if there's one thing the Bears can do it's score, so we all could be in store for a shootout in the Holiday Bowl this holiday season.

Oddsmakers originally opened the game with UCLA as 2-point favorites, but early and quick money on high-powered Baylor has brought the game all the way down to a pick 'em at most sportsbooks. You can still find a few offshore sportsbooks listing UCLA as slim 1-point favorites, but they are few and far between.

Any game with Baylor playing in it is going to cause some sticker shock when it comes to the over/under total, and the Holiday Bowl is no exception since the game opened at 77.5. That apparently wasn't high enough, since the total is up to 80 at some books and even as high as 80.5 (the highest total in all of the bowls) at a few books and properties in Las Vegas.

It took almost half a season for Florence to get completely in the Bears offense, but he's certainly rolling now and Baylor is as dangerous as ever these days. The senior from Garland, Texas, has hit on 61 percent of his passes, has thrown for 4,121 yards and has 31 throwing touchdowns as well as nine on the ground with his legs. For awhile his decision making was suspect, since he threw 11 of his 13 interceptions in the first seven weeks of the season, but he seems to have gained confidence of late and the Bears are amassing 353 yards a game in the air as a result (3rd in FBS).

But Baylor is not just a spread-passing attack, since they have two quality running backs in Oregon-transfer Lache Seastrunk (7.6 ypg, 6 TD) and Glasco Martin (5.0 ypc, 12 TD) that take advantage of nickel and dime defenses stretched thin to stop the pass to the tune of 226 yards a game (19th). The main weapon those defenses are trying to stop, receiver Terrance Williams (1,764 yards, 12 TD), is a beast on the outside and his 18.6 yards per catch is one of the best marks in college football.

The biggest problem for Baylor has been the fact they have to play defense … if you can claim what they play is actual defense. Baylor allows over 500 yards a game (514 ypg - 123rd), mostly in the air since they play in the Big 12 (323 ypg - 122nd) and their 38.2 points allowed each week is also one of the worst in the college game … ever.

It will be the task of UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley to pick apart the Bears defense and try and stay with the Bears point-for-point. Hundley has had a good first season as the starter (68%, 3,411 yards, 26 TD-to-11 INT), but it's no secret the Bruins are going to use heavy doses of senior running back Johnathan Franklin to neutralize the Bears attack. Franklin has rushed for 1,701 yards and 13 touchdowns this year, and his 6.3 yards per carry is something the Bruins will hang their hat on is order to try and keep Florence and Baylor off the field as much as possible.

These two have never met before this year's Holiday Bowl, so trends and history are hard to find for clues. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in neutral site games, but when the game only a few miles down the road in San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium, it's certainly going to be more like a home game for the Bruins.

I know it's hard to believe, but the over looks like a strong trends play too. Not only is the over a good choice in any game Baylor plays (8-3 this year, 5-0 in non-Big 12 games, 21-5-1 in L27 overall), but the over is also 6-0 in the Bruins last six games overall and 6-1 in games versus teams from the Big 12.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: There is going to be a TON of offense in this game and which team will win is really a coin flip. The UNDER 80.5 is the best option here. I think it will come very close to this number and sneak in right under it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

San Jose State Spartans vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Point Spread - Pick

No. 24 San Jose State Spartans (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Military Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 3:00 p.m. EST
Where: RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: SJSU -7/BGU +7
Over/Under Total: 47

The 24th-ranked San Jose State Spartans will try and notch their first 11-win season since the late 1930s when they travel across the country to RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., to take on the Bowling Green Falcons in the Military Bowl on December 27th on ESPN.

The Spartans have been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this season, notching their first 10-win campaign since 1987, with their two losses coming against two 11-win teams, Stanford and Utah State. The success has come at a big price however, as head coach Mike MacIntyre has been plucked away following the season to become the new head coach at Colorado, leaving defensive coordinator Kent Baer to run the team in the bowl game.

They'll face a Bowling Green squad that was alive for a chance at a Mid-American Conference (MAC) division title up until the middle of November, but a close loss at the hands of Kent State gave them their only loss in the final eight weeks of the season and cost them a shot at the MAC title game. The Falcons also lost to some quality teams throughout the season, including Florida, Virginia Tech and Toledo, so don't be deceived by the 4-loss record thinking this game will be an easy one for the Spartans.

With San Jose State being the first-ever ranked team to play in the Military Bowl, it's no surprise that oddsmakers installed them as 7.5-point favorites when the game went on the board in early December. With most of the early money coming in on the Spartans, the number has since dropped to minus -7 at most sportsbooks, although you can still find a few sitting still at -7.5 if you look for it.

The over/under total opened at 47 and has yet to move in either direction since it went up on the board.

When handicapping this game, at least on paper, it looks like your classic offense-vs.-defense matchup. San Jose State features one of the country's top throwing quarterbacks in David Fales, while Bowling Green has been the bizzarro-team of the MAC riding the nation's 7th-ranked defense all the way to eight wins and a bowl bid this season.

It's not much of a secret really, because this game is really going to turn on whether or not Fales can throw on the Falcons. Fales hits on 72 percent of his passes, finished 7th in FBS with 3,797 yards passing and also added 31 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. He's got two excellent targets in Noel Grigsby 1,172 yards, 9 TD) and Chandler Jones (10 TD), and when they are combined they finished 11th in the country with over 327 yards passing a game.

But Bowling Green features the 7th-ranked pass defense in the land, allowing just 173 yards a game. While the real strength of the Falcons defense is in their linebacking core, with Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods and Paul Swan all possessing excellent range and open-field tackling ability, the Falcons also boast the MAC's defensive player of the year in DT Chris Jones, who finished 7th in the country with 12.5 sacks.

With the Spartans attack that averaged 35 points per game, another big question that will need to be answered is whether or not the Falcons can score enough points on offense to win the game. Quarterback Matt Schilz is a three-year starter, but he's had his issues with protecting the ball (14 TD-to-12 INT), and the Falcons offense certainly won't be confused with being high-powered since the finished 11th in the 13-team MAC at only 374 yards a game and only 23 point a game.

San Jose State can also play a little bit of defense, with WAC defensive player of the year DE Travis Johnson (12 sacks) and defensive back Bene Benwikere (7 INT) both capable of making game-changing plays for the Spartans.

As you would expect, these two schools have never met on the gridiron since the come from the WAC and the MAC, respectively.

Both have proved to be excellent wagers all season long, with San Jose State only failing to cover twice and they were forced to chase some big numbers against some of the weaker teams in the WAC (-21.5 to Idaho, -20.5 to New Mexico St.). Bowling Green was essentially in the same boat, chasing some big numbers against bad MAC teams (-19.5 to UMass, -14 to Eastern Mich.), but ironically their four ATS losses came in all of their four SU losses, and they were underdogs in all three of the four games.

A look at the betting trends also shows that the Spartans have been an excellent wager outside of the WAC, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-WAC games. San Jose State has also played under the total in five of their last seven non-WAC games, and when combined with the Falcons tough defense and their own strong record of playing under the total (under is 20-8 in L28 overall), the under may prove to be the best wager on the board in this game.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Normally I'd be all over San Jose in this game, because I think they are more talented with the better offense and a solid enough defense to keep Bowling Green off the board. But losing their head coach is a variable that makes me throw those things out the window … you just can't measure how important MacIntyre not being on the sidelines is going to be for this one. In the end I think San Jose State won't score as much as they are used to on a solid Falcons offense, but Bowling Green won't blow them out either. I'm taking the under of 47.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils
Point Spread - Pick

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Belk Bowl Preview
Date/Time: Thursday December 27th, 2012. 6:30PM Eastern
Where: Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, N.C.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Cin -7.5/Duke +7.5
Over/Under Total: 60

For the first time in nearly two decades, the Duke Blue Devils will be a part of postseason football activity when they meet the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium. The last time Duke played in a bowl game dates all the way back to 1995 when the Blue Devils lost to Wisconsin in the Hall of Fame Bowl. In order to find Duke's last victory in postseason football, you would need to flip the record books all the way back to the 1960 Cotton Bowl where the Blue Devils pulled out a 7-6 victory over Arkansas. However, the Blue Devils have the chance to erase that 52 year drought and score another bowl victory when they meet the Bearcats in Charlotte on December 27th.

The 6-6 Blue Devils had a great start to the season before losing their final 4 games of the year. In fact there was a time this season when Duke led the ACC Coastal Division but faltered down the stretch. Duke's success in 2012 can be largely accredited towards the play of the offense. Duke's offense in general has historically been one of the worst in the ACC each year. However, Coach David Cutcliffe has instilled a more progressive passing offense which has the Blue Devils on the rise.

Duke's offense has averaged 277 yards per game through the air and the ability to contend in the ACC. Senior QB Sean Renfree has been solid this season by completing 66% passing for 18 scores and 8 picks for 2,755 yards. Wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Conner Vernon have posted stellar numbers this year as well. Crowder leads the team with 1,025 receiving yards and 7 scores while Vernon has added another 955 receiving yards for 6 touchdowns. Collectively, these guys have the ability to move the football fairly well as you will likely see when they battle the Bearcats. However, the problem has not been the offense but rather the defense in 2012.

Duke's defense has consistently been one of the worst units in college football this season giving up 462 total yards (104th in FBS) and 35 points (103rd in FBS) per game. Of course that is rather good news for Cincinnati who will ride into Charlotte following a respectable 9-3 mark this year. Cincinnati was caught a share of the Big East Championship but Louisville received the BCS bid due to their higher BCS ranking. Now the Bearcats will attempt to get above the .500 mark in postseason play considering the fact they are 6-6 all-time in bowl games.

The Bearcats have been pretty solid on both sides of the ball this season but they have excelled in the running game behind the legs of tailback George Winn. Winn has put together an impressive senior season by rushing for 1,204 yards and 12 touchdowns. Winn's 1,204 yards actually lead the entire Big East in rushing. Additionally QB Munchie Legaux is a legitimate running threat with the football and has added some respectable rushing numbers on the year. Legaux has struggled throwing the ball completing just 52% for 13 scores and 9 picks. Still, Cincinnati has averaged 200 yards per game on the ground as a team. That strong rushing attack is a big reason that the Bearcats are rather sizeable 7.5 favorites over the Blue Devils in the days leading up to kickoff.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Most of Duke's defensive problems have been against the pass this season. If Legaux continues to play at an average level, I do not see Cincinnati running away with this one or at least posting a big number. On the flip side, I like the way the Bearcats stack up defensively against Duke and believe those reasons combined will push the scoring under the total mark. Take the under 60!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5
Cost: -110

Run Line
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Boston Celtics+8.5
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Play of the Day December 27, 2012 6:31 AM by GT Staff

Holiday Bowl

Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA

Baylor +3 (Total 81) vs. UCLA at 6:45 p.m. PT ESPN

No, this game will be fun to watch as both teams can score at will. The team that hits the half century mark just may be the Bruins and their speed and UCLA has gone 5-0 ATS vs. the Big 12 as the chalk or a dog of less than a field goal.

UCLA -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks December 27, 2012 6:27 AM by GT Staff

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics /Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190

NCAA Basketball

Arkansas State -6½

College Football Bowl Games

Bowling Green +7½

Duke +9

Cincinnati/ Duke OVER 60

UCLA -3

Baylor /UCLA OVER 81

[Can'tPickAWinner]

stu feiner

high roller under 44 bowling green

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

Cincinnati -7 vs. Duke: Maybe the fact this bowl is in Charlotte, N.C., made the line drop from 11 to 7. Can’t imagine another explanation. We’re glad to see it. CINCY.

Baylor +1 vs. UCLA: The Bears beat Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. consecutively, scoring 145 points. The Bruins had a nice year, but are probably still smarting from two losses to Stanford. BAYLOR.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

THURSDAY

Military at Washington, DC

BGreen +7 vs. San Jose St. (46): The Spartans had a great season and would love to finish it off with the win in a rare bowl appearance. State went 10-2 both SU and ATS, ending the season with six straight wins. The last two came over BYU and La Tech. SAN JOSE ST.

Belk at Charlotte, NC

Duke +7 vs. Cincy (60): The Blue Devils went 6-6 SU and ATS but lost their last four both SU and ATS. They are bowling for the first time in eons. In those last four games (Florida St., Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami) they gave up an average of 49.5 points. The Bearcats went 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. The only common opponent, Virginia Tech, they beat 27-24. Tech beat Duke 41-20. CINCY/ OVER.

Holiday at San Diego

Baylor +1 vs. UCLA (80): Now this game will be worth staying up for. The answer will be who gets the ball last. I shake when betting beyond a number this high, but just can’t find a reason except snow and there will be none in San Diego. I’ll root for overtime. OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN 400*

6 pt teaser: Bowling Green +13.5, Cincinatti -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

San Jose St -7.5
Duke +9.5
Baylor +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

1000* CFB Over 82 UCLA/Baylor
100* CFB Over 44.5 Bowling Green/San Jose
100* CBB New Mexico +6.5
100* CBB St Marys -16.5
50* NBA Over 190 Clippers/Celtics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Early Sebastian:
300 units on Bowling Green

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence:
Bowling Green, Duke, UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HM Sports

12* UCLA moneyline
7* bowling green
5* Duke
4* UCLA under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS LOCK

7 San Jose St. -7

Hoops
3 Ark St -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll sports 3-1 yesterday with a canceled game on the bulls---won 10* on c mich in cfb

todays card

10* baylor bears +3 cfb
5* bowling green falcons +7.5 cfb
4* cinncy bearcats -9.5 cfb
2* w kent hilltoppers -6 cbb
1* ark st red wolves -6 cbb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Thursday

3* = "OVER" ON UCLA/BAYLOR
2* = SAN JOSE STATE
2* = "OVER" ON SAN JOSE STATE/BOWLING GREEN
2* = CINCINNATI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marco d'angelo

2* ucla

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Hilton- Gameday

1 Bowling Green
2 Duke

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charlie Sports 12/27/2012

Charlie says to play thurs ncaaf bowl triple lock straight , in a 3 team parlay, 3 team teaser and a 3 team rd robin

500* Duke +9
500* Baylor vs UCLA under 83
500* Bowling Green vs San Jose State under 45

30* San Jose State +7

20* UCLA -3

Freebie NBA Clippers -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RickJ's Handicapping Picks Thursday College Hoops:

1 Unit Play

519 Northern Arizona +18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover
Under Baylor / UCLA

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The Machine
NCAAF Pick: Bowling Green +7.5 *20 units*

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Docs CBB

**16-2 run** I think they are up $9,250 so far this year (as a $100 bettor).

2 Unit Play. #512 Take Under 137.5 in New Mexico @ Cincinnati (9 pm ESPN 2)

This was expected to be a match-up of unbeaten teams, but the Lobos lost their last game to South Dakota State and thus this game has lost some of its luster. Both of these teams get it done on the defensive side of the floor allowing less than 63 points per game and thus we will not worry who wins this game and just collect with the under. Cincinnati lost their big man from last year but they still have some strong guards and play very physical. New Mexico is a similar team and thus expect scoring to be at a premium. New Mexico has gone under the posted total in their last 4 games against Big East teams. Cincinnati has gone under the posted total in 14 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. Both trends hold true tonight, as we collect big in the process.

Vegas Sports Informer NBA

No play today. 6 unit GOM tomorrow.

Robert Ferringo CBB

The lines on St. Mary's have moved drastically but it did open at 16.5.

2 * FIRST HALF: St. Mary's (-9) (10 p.m.)
2 * St. Mary's (-16.5) (10 p.m.)
1 * 'Under' 137.5 New Mexico at Cincinnati (9 p.m.)

Season: 191-172-11 (52.5%) +30.95 units

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marco d'angelo

2* ucla

PLAY: UCLA
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

I'll admit when I first looked at this game my knee jerk reaction was to look at Baylor as I felt that UCLA would be down losing the PAC 12 Championship to Stanford by a FG and missing a trip to the Rose Bowl. That knee jerk response is understandable but once I thought about it more and looked deeper into the numbers I changed my mind about this game. Let's be realistic at the beginning of the season in Jim Mora's first season did anyone really think UCLA was going to the Rose Bowl? I mean with USC and Oregon in the conference that really wasn't going to happen.

So what UCLA did accomplish was more than anyone thought they would so they have to be very happy with the year they have had. UCLA won 5 of their last 7 games with the only 2 losses coming in back to back weeks against Stanford. Stanford was that one team that could play smash mouth football in the PAC 12 and that presented problems for UCLA. Baylor is not a smash mouth football team. Baylor has a wide open offense that can go up and down the field the with Baylor is they can't stop anyone. They have given up over 500 yards in 8 of their 12 games this year. Teams have scored 30 or more in 8 of 12 games as well. In 6 of the 12 games they gave up 40 or more.

Both UCLA and Baylor can score the difference between these two teams is that UCLA can actually make some stops on defense. In Baylor's last 2 games they won in shootouts 52-45 and 41-34. That looks very impressive but go deeper into the stats and you will see that in those 2 wins they benefitted from their opponents TO's as Baylor enjoyed a 6-1 TO margin. Had Baylor not been +5 with TO's they could of lost both of those games and instead of 7-5 been 5-7 and not even in a Bowl Game. UCLA had one really bad loss this year and that was against California when they turned the ball over 6 times. Both teams will go up and down the field tonight but in the end UCLA's defense will make a few more stops and that will be the difference. I have UCLA winning 47-34.

TAKE UCLA as MARCO'S COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK

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Ben Burns
ncaaf: san jose st vs. bowling green... under 44.5

ncaaf: cincinnati vs. duke... duke +7

ncaab: new mexico vs. cincinnati... cincinnati -6

ncaaf: baylor vs. ucla... ucla -1

nba: boston vs. clippers... under 190.5

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Teddy Covers

10* Duke (NCAAF)
10* St. Mary's

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gold sheet LTS

1 1/2 UNITS on DUKE

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball

3-Unit Play. #508. Take Arkansas State -7 over Louisiana-Lafayette (Thursday @ 8pm est).

3-Unit Play. #514. Take St. Mary's CA -17 over Rhode Island (Thursday @ 10pm est).

Arkansas State hooks up Louisiana-Lafayette today and this is a team they lost by 3 points on the road back on February 11th in last season. Its a revenge game for the home team as they hook up with La-Lafayette here and I can see John Brady's team getting up for this game. This team lost a tough contest to Murray State by 7 points at home and lost by 4 to Kent State on the road. Both of those teams were top 150 teams so Arkansas State does look to rebound here from both those tough losses. Prior to that, this team had beat St. Bonaventure and Austin Peay. When you look at the turnover percentage this team ranks in the top 75 and they face a Louisiana-Lafayette team that has yet to put together back to back wins this season. This team is outside the top in turnovers and in a contest in which limited possessions are likely, it will be difficult for Lafayette to cough up valuable possessions. This team faced a similar Houston team on the road who is top 200 just like Arkansas State and lost by 22 points and as they come off a win against Duquesne at home, I can see them having a let down here on the road against an Arkansas State team that will be anxious and motivated to play well coming off back to back losses plus with revenge here. St. Mary's Ca has had no problem running teams out of the gym and they certainly will not find it difficult to beat a Rhode Island team that they have not seen before. Whenever you get an opportunity to play teams you are not that familiar with, teams get to play such teams especially as they travel out west. Rhode Island got by Georgia State by 5 points in a contest where they showed they rely heavily on their Munford and Malesevic. St. Mary's is 9th in the nation in offense and if Rhode Island struggled against Virginia Tech earlier this year who is a top 120 team and lost by 19, they are likely to struggle against this top 50 team. Do note that St. Mary's comes off a frustrating loss to Northern Iowa as well which was a revenge game for Northern Iowa and as they come off that loss, I can see them bouncing back in a big way with a wide margin of victory here. This team has the potential to drop 85 at home on any given night and Rhode Island is a top 200 defense and typically scores in the mid to high 50's against top flight teams. I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being 85-60 type of contest.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball

3-Unit Play. #504. Take LA Clippers -8.5 over Boston Celtics (Thursday @ 10:35pm est).

The Clippers seem to always remember who has beat them over the years and now with the deep team they have assembled they seem to be avenging every one of their losses. This team is very deep and it shows night in and night out when everyone gets in on the action. Plus, you have players within the Clippers organization all competing for the highlight reel it seems as the organization knows that although Bledsoe is the guard of the future, they are trying to work him into a very deep rotation that showed 10 players playing at least 16 minutes in their last game. From the starting lineup of Paul, Griffin, Jordan, Butler Green, to the second rotation of Barnes, Crawford, Odom, Turiaf and Bledsoe. The Celtics come off a big win over the Nets over the Holidays but that was a game in which the Celtics had lost back to back games to the Nets and were looking to get revenge. Plus, the Nets have not been playing well of late as they are on a steady down tick over the last 10 games. With Boston coming off a win, and a win that was hard fetched to find given that they were 2-4 over their last 6, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics struggle here. Boston's bench is suspect and the Clippers lost the last time Boston was in LA beating them 94-85. I know the 8.5 points seem like a gift, but this is the same Celtics team that lost 89-100 to a short handed Bulls team on the road, lost 88-103 to San Antonio on the road and 89-101 on Houston on the road so the idea of them losing by double-digits is not that far fetched. I like the Clippers to be up for this game and with the fact the C's won in LA the last time they played, Boston coming off a win as they were not playing well leading up to the Nets game and the Clippers bench being one of the best recent memory, I like the Clippers from start to finish here.

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Kelso

50 units Baylor +3
10 units Cincy -9
10 SJ/BG under 44

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Dennis Hill
Bowling Gr
Duke
UCLA

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Smokeyourbookie
San Jose St
Duke
Ucla Under 83

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Premium picks from Dave Price

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics

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Cappster Thursday Game of the Day‏

Cincinnati -6 over New Mexico in NCAAB action

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Mike Jacobs Thursday, December 27, 2012
10k Dime
Duke Over 60

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NorthCoast Marquee Totals Plays

Single Marquee: Under 44.5 Bowliing Green/San Jose St
Single Marquee: Over 60.5 Cincy/Duke
Double Marquee: Over 82.5 Baylor/Ucla

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Northcoast Plays
5* Duke
3* B Green
Top Op--UCLA
2* marq-Over UCLA
1* Marq-Under B Green
1* Marq-Over Duke

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int picks


3* ucla

2* san jose st under
duke

1* ucla under
bowling green

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wunderdog NCAAF 12/27
Bowling Green
Duke
UCLA

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Predictable Patterns (swami site) - Going for 18th win in a row in college football.

7u Bowling Green/San Jose St over

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Bruce Marshall

UCLA -3

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Robert Ferringo's Picks For College Basketball

2-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #514 St. Mary's (-9) over Rhode Island (10 p.m., Thurs., Dec. 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #514 St. Mary's (-16.5) over Rhode Island (10 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)
Note: Really, I would have said that the first half line would be 2.5 Units and the game bet would be 1.5. But we don't release X.5 Unit plays any more. So instead I'll say that if we miss on the first half line, I would say to bet 1-Unit on the second half line. There is no way that the Gaels are going to lose this game and I think they are going to have a strong showing here. And there really should be a way to differentiate between the two plays here and the first half bet is the stronger one.

St. Mary's has a 14-game nonconference home winning streak and they are coming off a loss. This is a team that rarely loses two games in a row and they are coming off a defeat at Northern Iowa their last time out. Some teams might have lost focus during the holiday. But I don't think that this St. Mary's team is one of them. This team is made up primarily of Australians. So they didn't have family distractions over Christmas. They were just hanging out with one another, focusing on their game. And this team has to be angry about that rare loss at UNI. Rhode Island is a really young team. They have a new coach and new system. And they are showing early signs of progress. But this team hasn't left the state in over a month. And a fair comparison was their first road game of the year, at Virginia Tech, when they were rocked by 19 against a Hokies team that isn't as good or as motivated as the Gaels.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 138.0 New Mexico at Cincinnati (9 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

I don't play many totals, and that's why I'm hesitant to go with much more on this one. But if I have a total you know I really like it. And this one comes down to one thing: horrible weather. I really like New Mexico with the points in this game. But as I suspected, their travel has been ridiculous to get to Cincinnati to get to this game. The horrible weather forced them to fly from Albuequerque to Denver to Chicago to Louisville, and then they had to take a bus up to Cincinnati for this game. That is brutal. Just brutal. As a result, I expect this team to be a little off when they get this game started. Mix in the fact that neither team has played much lately - this is just both teams' second game in over a week - and I expect some rust. Both of these teams make their money on defense, and neither of them has broken the 140-point barrier that consistently this season. The Bearcats have only had their high-scoring games against pathetic, lower-70 teams. New Mexico has stayed below this number of points against good offensive teams like South Dakota State, New Mexico State and Valpo, and there were only 126 points in their game against Connecticut. Both teams will be a little off in the early going here. And the result will be a low scoring first half (I expect around 60 total points) that will make it really tough for this one to get 'over' in the second half.
That's it for today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports Picks For College Basketball

2 Unit Play. #512 Take Under 137.5 in New Mexico @ Cincinnati (9 pm ESPN 2) This was expected to be a match-up of unbeaten teams, but the Lobos lost their last game to South Dakota State and thus this game has lost some of its luster. Both of these teams get it done on the defensive side of the floor allowing less than 63 points per game and thus we will not worry who wins this game and just collect with the under. Cincinnati lost their big man from last year but they still have some strong guards and play very physical. New Mexico is a similar team and thus expect scoring to be at a premium. New Mexico has gone under the posted total in their last 4 games against Big East teams. Cincinnati has gone under the posted total in 14 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. Both trends hold true tonight, as we collect big in the process.

Doc's Sports Picks For NBA Basketball

3-Unit Play #503 Take Boston +8.5 over LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST, Thursday)

We have gone against the Clippers in their last two games with less than desirable results. This team has been playing way above its head during this 14-game winning streak. Don't get us wrong, this team is a championship contender. But with every win the bullseye on their collective back gets bigger and so do the point spreads the bookies post for this team. This is the second largest spread the Celtics have faced this season, and we just think that the Clippers are going to lose soon, or at least play a close game. And this opponent will not be intimidated heading into Staples Center and we really feel like this will be a close game. We think this line should have been closer to six. Boston hasn't been great on the road this season, but they put together their most complete road game on Christmas in dismantling the Nets on the road. They have been playing solid defense lately and we expect them to be able to slow down the Clippers offense here and keep the score manageable. Since Boston is coming off one of their best games of the season, we think that momentum will carry over into this game. Boston should give top effort tonight as most teams will against LA as they are now the big story in the NBA. We think this game goes down to the wire.

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Allen Eastman's Picks For College Basketball

4-Unit Play. Take #512 Cincinnati (-6) over New Mexico (9 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

I will go with the Bearcats in this one. This team is ranked in the Top 10 and they are at home. This team has excellent guard play and they will be up for this game. New Mexico has had to take four plane trips and a bus ride just to get to Cincinnati for this game. The winter weather has forced them into unusual travel. I think that will have a big impact on this team for this game. The Bearcats will have the home crowd and they will get this win going away.

3-Unit Play. Take #510 Western Kentucky (-7) over Florida International (8 p.m., Thurs., Dec. 27)

Right now Western Kentucky is the best team in the Sun Belt. They have played a very strong schedule and they are ready to dominate their league. WKU is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 Sun Belt games and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. This team is getting guard T.J. Price back from injury and they will be much better off. This FIU team has struggled scoring all year and I don't see them scoring over 55 points tonight. Lay the points.
Allen Eastman

Allen Eastman's Picks For NBA Basketball

No value on the board today. I am going to pass.

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Alatex 15*
bowling green

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Vegas Runner
Baylor+3

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Vegas Sports Informer's Picks For College Basketball

2 Unit Play. Take #506 Troy -4 over Florida Atlantic (8:00 p.m., Thursday, December 27)
Florida Atlantic has had trouble scoring this season and if they struggle tonight on the road we should see Troy get a conference 'W'. Florida Atlantic can't cover a game on the road to save their lives and the Owls are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games. Troy is a perfect 4-0 ATS following a SU loss and the Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Vegas Sports Informer's Picks For NBA Basketball

No NBA plays for us today but check back Friday as we have our 6-Unit NBA Game of the Month.

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Lee Sterling

25 BG
20 Duke
25 Baylor

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Sports bank
400 ucla

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Millionaires club
lock
ucla over

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29 Financial

San Jose State -7 level 1
Duke +8 level 1

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Marc Lawrence

5* BG
3 Duke
3 UCLA

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Root:
DUKE MILLIONAIRE

UCLA NO LIMIT

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Scott Spreitzer

UCLA

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advantage sports
over ucla

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Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball

2-Unit Play. #511 Take New Mexico (+6.5) over Cincinnati (9 p.m., Thursday, December 27)

At some point this Bearcats team is going to slip back down to reality. This Cincy team just isn't as good as its perfect record and Top Ten ranking suggests. Yes, they are good, but so is New Mexico. And as far as the Lobos' loss last time out to South Dakota State, I am chalking that one up to a lookahead spot to this exact game. New Mexico may have only one Top 25 victory on the season, but it is one more than an unproven Cincy team. At some point you have to look at this team's resume and say they haven't played anyone. It doesn't mean their wins don't count, but it's not like Mick Cronin's team has stepped out and proven it with quality non-conference wins. I want to say this Lobos team will come through here and win. Not sure about that, but I also do not see this being a one-sided result for the home Bearcats. I think Steve Alford's team will be ready to play after the bad pre-Christmas loss. Let's take the points and see if we can't produce with a nice underdog pick.

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Jimmy Boyd
5* (NCAAF) Bowling Green +7.5

4* (NCAAF) Duke +7.5

3* (NBA) Boston Celtics +8.5
3* (CBB) Saint Mary's -16.5

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Ray Falco

CFB

Baylor

NBA

Okla City

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OC DOOLEY

“2 UNIT” COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM TOTAL (Cincinnati versus Duke UNDER 60’ in a 6:35 eastern kickoff on ESPN): The Belk Bowl is being played outdoors in the home stadium of the NFL Carolina Panthers and even though there is no precipitation in the forecast, the temperatures (low 40’s) will be on the cool side and dropping as this early evening clash progresses.

It is easy to see why the posted total for this contest is high since Cincinnati has operated for years with the “spread” offense. One of the Bearcats former head coaches was Brian Kelly, who developed the spread attack while with Central Michigan, where one of his assistants was Butch Jones. After advancing to head coach status, Jones eventually landed with Cincinnati but he will NOT be involved with this particular postseason contest after accepting the vacant position with Tennessee.

Calling the shots for the Bearcats this evening will be the DEFENSIVE line coach and that seems appropriate since the team’s stop-unit was spectacular in the final 4 games of the regular season where the opposition was held to a points per game average of less than 12 per pop.

Keep an eye out for Cincinnati linebacker Greg Blair who stepped up his production when one of his teammates went down with a spinal injury. Blair finished with 123 tackles including 8’ for losses along with 2’ sacks. He quickly emerged as the EMOTIONAL leader of the defense which reminds me of emotional Baltimore Ravens star Ray Lewis.

On the other side of the ledger Duke cornerback Ross Cockrell who was picked on often early in his career ended up leading the entire Atlantic Coast Conference with 5 interceptions.

Turning to the database here is a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (54-28 the past five years with a total between 56 and 63 points) which takes teams like Duke off consecutive games where the defense permitted 525+ yards each time UNDER the total, with an experienced quarterback returning as the starter. Duke fits that system to perfection as Sean Renfree is a three-year starter. Since he has completed more than 66% of his passes this evening’s total has been inflated for which I am taking advantage.

The Belk Bowl in Charlotte not only gives the Blue Devils a geographical advantage, they are participating in their first postseason event since 1994. The last time Duke emerged victorious in a Bowl was way back in 1960 when the final score (7-6) saw both sides held to single-digits. In the past twenty years Duke is 9-0 UNDER/ROAD after losing four times in a six-game stretch. In that same time span that dates back to 1992, Cincinnati for some reason has gone 11-1 UNDER when taking the field on a THURSDAY (check all calendars).

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Sebastian Report Update for Thursday:
200 Duke Buy to 10.
100 UCLA
100 Celtics

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Big Al
CBB
3* Roadkill on N ARZ.

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KB Hoops

College Bowl Record 5-3 +7.6 units

5 units Duke +9.5 **POD**
2 units UCLA -3

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Erin Rynning

10 Dallas

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RealSwoop
Duke over 61.5

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Texas Insiders: 100* Baylor

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MajorCovers 12/27
Ucla baylor under

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Handicappersports
CFB - BELK BOWL
on CINCY / DUKE UNDER 62.5

CBB
on LOU-LAFAYETTE +7 ...#507
on WESTERN ILLINOIS -5 ...#518