Ludo's Locks 2013

[Ludo]

Kicking it off with a double header this year!

2.5u to win .5u on Pat Healy at Strikeforce 1/12/13
3u to win .6u on Tim Kennedy at Strikeforce 1/12/13

[Luke]

GL man

[Ludo]

GL man

Thanks, man. We butt heads now and then but it means alot. I hope everyone here at IWS takes every book they have for a ride this year.

[Mr. IWS]

You guys are a couple of fag's.







































GL homie

::handshake::

[Ludo]

3.6u to win win .9u on Urijah Faber at UFC157

[Ludo]

I had 4.5u to win .98u on GSP at UFC157 that I apparently forgot to post in here(but posted it on the bet tracker)

Next is 5.48u to win 1.096u on Rick Hawn at Bellator 95

[SPX]

Where've you been?

Seems like I haven't seen you post anything in forever. . .

[Ludo]

Where've you been?

Seems like I haven't seen you post anything in forever. . .

I've been posting on the betting threads, but work has been kicking My ass these last 5-6 weeks. Crazy ass hours and then easter have been fucking insane lately. Plus we haven't had a whole lot of MMA and My bets haven't exactly been doing well of late. I'm looking to get out of that funk though.

[SPX]

Indeed. Well shit bro, you're IWS family. Let us know you're alive.

BTW, what do you do for work?

[poopoo333]

BTW, what do you do for work?

He won't tell us, he is like zY...they are secretive people.













Ludo, post a pic.

[Ludo]

I'm in retail. Hopefully things start to get back to normal and I won't get all super swamped and shit. I'll be around for the Fuel card this saturday for sure.

[Mr. IWS]

I'm in retail. Hopefully things start to get back to normal and I won't get all super swamped and shit. I'll be around for the Fuel card this saturday for sure.


post a pic

[SPX]

I used to work retail. What do you do exactly?

BTW, I'm also pretty confident in Hawn, but why are you so confident you consider him a lock?

[Luke]

post a pic

BOL, reeped

[Luke]

He won't tell us, he is like zY...they are secretive people.
















Zy steals cable splitters and hocks them on ebay. Me and SPX figured this out years ago

[Ludo]

I think Hawn has the striking power edge, and at worst the judo cancels each other out and I just don't think Karo has ever been "that guy" to outstrike people. Hawn has been fighting the much better competition lately, and Karo is just plain getting old/burned out in the sport it seems. Basically all roads point to Hawn here.

[Ludo]

I used to work in cell phone sales and whatnot, but now I'm in customer service.

[Ludo]

Next is 6.576u to win 1.315u on Urijah Faber at the TUF17 finale

[Ludo]

Finishing off the first set with 7.891u to win .788u on Jon Jones at UFC159

Recycling the winnings minus the principle and beginning a second set with another double header for FOX7:
2.5u to win .455u on Joseph Benavidez
2.955u to win .422u on Chad Mendez

[SPX]

7.89u to win .788u? Doesn't even seem worth it.

[Ludo]

7.89u to win .788u? Doesn't even seem worth it.

On Jon Jones over Chael Sonnen? It's practically free money. Not to mention in 7 plays I'll have made over 6u in profit on otherwise unbettable lines for the most part. The smallest line I bet in this thing was -475.

[Ludo]

My bad, the smallest line was -400, but you get the point.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Its always worth it if you win.

The only question in the Jones/Sonnen fight is whether Jones will submit him or fracture his orbital with an elbow from top. If Chael gets out of round 2 I would be shocked.

[SPX]

But we know in MMA there are no true locks. Anything can happen. Sonnen is a very capable MMA fighter. It's not like Jones is fighting some random nobody with a 2-3 record.

[poopoo333]

I think the most interesting line would be:

Amount of times Chael takes Jones down:

Over 0.5 +200

Under 0.5 -260

[MMA_scientist]

But we know in MMA there are no true locks. Anything can happen. Sonnen is a very capable MMA fighter. It's not like Jones is fighting some random nobody with a 2-3 record.

True, there are no true locks. That is why it is only 10:1. Do you think Chael would win one if they fought 10 times? I don't think Chael would win one if they fought 50 times, unless Jones got DQ'd or freak injury.

[MMA_scientist]

I think the most interesting line would be:

Amount of times Chael takes Jones down:

Over 0.5 +200

Under 0.5 -260

Did you just make those lines up?

[poopoo333]

Of course

[SPX]

True, there are no true locks. That is why it is only 10:1. Do you think Chael would win one if they fought 10 times? I don't think Chael would win one if they fought 50 times, unless Jones got DQ'd or freak injury.

Well, I've been surprised before.

[MMA_scientist]

Well, I've been surprised before.

yeah, me too. But that's the game, guessing whether the line is off or not.

[SPX]

I think when the odds are that high the best play is just to pass. It's like, is one unit really worth risking ~20% of your bankroll?

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I get that from a bankroll management position. But I think he a has a management system in place (though I can't tell what it is from this thread, something involving sets though), so I don't see any issue here. It is going to work.

[Ludo]

Yeah, I get that from a bankroll management position. But I think he a has a management system in place (though I can't tell what it is from this thread, something involving sets though), so I don't see any issue here. It is going to work.

The way the project works is that I start off with 2.5u and play it either until it busts or until it clears 5u on profit, at which point I reset the project with the initial capital and more or less pocket the earnings. I figure I can do this 2-3 times in a year or so. I figure 5 to 1 favorites aren't really worth betting with a normal bankroll most of the time, but with a smaller bankroll in this format I feel I can make something out of them in the long run.

I came up with this idea when I saw what you guys were doing with those locks parlays involving mostly submission props coupled with the contest Svino had last year with each bet to only win a unit. The object is to help manage swings by providing a more stable(in theory) way to make a profit.

[edman5555]

I wouldn't be suprised to see chael do alright in this one. I would be shocked if he won though.

[MMA_scientist]

The way the project works is that I start off with 2.5u and play it either until it busts or until it clears 5u on profit, at which point I reset the project with the initial capital and more or less pocket the earnings. I figure I can do this 2-3 times in a year or so. I figure 5 to 1 favorites aren't really worth betting with a normal bankroll most of the time, but with a smaller bankroll in this format I feel I can make something out of them in the long run.

I came up with this idea when I saw what you guys were doing with those locks parlays involving mostly submission props coupled with the contest Svino had last year with each bet to only win a unit. The object is to help manage swings by providing a more stable(in theory) way to make a profit.

I see. I think that you will definitely win more than you lose, though you will inevitably lose some. I think it will definitely work.

[SPX]

I came up with this idea when I saw what you guys were doing with those locks parlays involving mostly submission props . . .

Whatever happened to that? Seems like I haven't seen a magic parlay in quite in a while. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Whatever happened to that? Seems like I haven't seen a magic parlay in quite in a while. . .

I am still doing them, I actually had a pretty big one on the last card. I just haven't been posting them. I also still have the 2012 parlay going, but it seemed like I was just posting it for no reason, so I stopped.

[SPX]

Scientist, why are you refusing to participate in the forum?

[Ludo]

I see. I think that you will definitely win more than you lose, though you will inevitably lose some. I think it will definitely work.

I figred I'd eventually bust(like I did last year on Rich Franklin) and thats why it only rolls to 5u profit before I reset it.

[MMA_scientist]

I figred I'd eventually bust(like I did last year on Rich Franklin) and thats why it only rolls to 5u profit before I reset it.

Sure, it is essentially a positive betting progression. Win X in a row and take it down. System bettors have been using that forever. As long as you have an edge, it will work. If you don't, it won't work. You are "an advantage player" so to speak, so it will work- there is no controversy here.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist, why are you refusing to participate in the forum?

Bol, I'm not. I just don't have that much to add.

[SPX]

Bol, I'm not. I just don't have that much to add.

Well if you don't post all your bets how do you expect the tracker to be accurate?

[MMA_scientist]

Well if you don't post all your bets how do you expect the tracker to be accurate?

I don't. I haven't posted any bets in the tracker in a while. I figured I don't really track it or care to, so why should anyone else care.

[SPX]

I like to know how everyone's doing.

[MMA_scientist]

Oh, well I don't really consider myself active. I will start posting my plays again just for you.

[SPX]

Well, you've already fucked it up now.

BTW, what kind of lines are you usually getting with your magic parlays? When I got my 5d account I got excited that I could finally do those but then every time I'd try to put one together the lines were still ridiculously high. What's the secret? Seems I remember you getting lines around -500.

[MMA_scientist]

Well, you've already fucked it up now.

BTW, what kind of lines are you usually getting with your magic parlays? When I got my 5d account I got excited that I could finally do those but then every time I'd try to put one together the lines were still ridiculously high. What's the secret? Seems I remember you getting lines around -500.

Uh, no. I would try to get the total parlay to come in under -400, but was usually not successful. Right now, I am looking at Not Thomson/Gil/Cormier by submission, and it is still more than -1000. I am hoping to get lines on Mendes and maybe one more to bring it under -400. I will probably do Not thomson and not cormier and not Elkins for the 2012 parlay regardless. The individual lines are almost always more than -1000

[SPX]

I mean your final line on the parlay after putting everything together was -500 or better. . .

[MMA_scientist]

I mean your final line on the parlay after putting everything together was -500 or better. . .

Oh, yeah, you should be able to get that most of the time. You generally need at least 4 of them sometimes more to get there. For example on this card, those 3 IO mentioned above are already down to about -1000, if you can get another -1300 line (or 2 higher lines), you are there.

[SPX]

Hmm, maybe I'll have to try it again. Most of the time the lines are like -5600 or some crazy shit like that.

[MMA_scientist]

Hmm, maybe I'll have to try it again. Most of the time the lines are like -5600 or some crazy shit like that.

yeah, if you put 5 or 6 -5600 lines together you will get there (well, you would need at least one to be a bit lower), but little prizes add up.

[Ludo]

Set 1 ends with +6.179u