1-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine:

Paul's Pick: San Francisco -4 @ Atlanta (Covers 56.4%)

While it may not have looked that way for the first three quarters of the game, Seattle should have won over Atlanta on Sunday. The Seahawks turned three promising first half drives deep into Atlanta territory into zero first half points due to a Marshawn Lynch fumble, an ill-prepared fourth down attempt (spread the field, get under center, quick count, sneak the ball - every time - but if not that, Lynch should probably get the ball) and a bizarre end to the half. A furious second half comeback ultimately gave the Seahawks a lead with 31 seconds remaining. More importantly, it provided a glimpse into what should be expected in Atlanta this week.

All told, Seattle out-gained Atlanta overall (491 yards to 417 yards) and on a per-play basis (7.4 to 6.8) by significant margins and the teams were equal in turnovers. Atlanta's dominance on the ground against a very good Seahawks' defense was certainly surprising. Removing one 45-yard run by Jacquizz Rodgers that was totally uncharacteristic of what we have seen from either Rodgers or the Seattle run defense, though, gives Atlanta a reasonable, 25 carries for 122 yard day (still better than expected, yet important for context). Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 10.1 yards-per-pass and averaged 8.6 yards-per-rush.

Wilson only attempted to run the ball seven times, but he had his way on those runs and, with Atlanta playing mostly man coverage on pass plays, Wilson had open lanes to run on virtually every play. He also had an exploitable mismatch with his tight end, Zach Miller, lined up against a safety or corner. San Francisco has a better running, young quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, who just lit up a man coverage team for an all-time quarterback rushing record (181 yards) and who has two very good-to-great tight ends (Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker) of his own. Especially with the later start (noon PT instead of 10 am PT) and without the 49ers having to travel a great distance last week, look for San Francisco to start strong to build an early lead and likely not have to look back.

San Francisco is 12-4-1 straight-up and 10-6-1 against-the-spread versus the fourth toughest NFL schedule to-date. The 49ers are 5-3 SU and ATS on the road with away wins and covers over playoff teams Green Bay and New England - two teams that are better than Atlanta. As four to ten point favorites, San Francisco finished 6-3-1 ATS. Over the course of the entire season, the 49ers rank second in yards-per-play and sixth in fewest turnovers-per-play, third in (fewest) yards-per-play allowed and first (by a large differential) in yards-per-play margin. With Colin Kaepernick taking over at quarterback on November 19, those numbers have actually all improved, with Kaepernick himself accounting for 8.3 yards-per-pass and 6.6 yards-per-rush, while turning the ball over on just 1.7% of his plays. As presently constructed, San Francisco ranks among the top five in the NFL in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted running, passing, run defense and pass defense metrics. With tackle Joe Staley emerging from last week healthy enough to be considered "probable" for this game and defensive lineman Justin Smith playing well (enough) against Green Bay, the 49ers are also very healthy. They may not generate a ton of turnovers or have home field advantage, but, it is very difficult otherwise to find weaknesses with this team.

Atlanta is 14-3 SU and 9-7-1 ATS against the 22nd ranked NFL schedule for 2012-13. Head coach Mike Smith and the Falcons play incredibly disciplined football in that they rarely commit penalties or turn the ball over. Coupled with home field in this game, that is just about all that Atlanta has going for it. The Falcons will have to play something close to a perfect game and hope that San Francisco helps them out in order to win this game. Obviously, this is possible since Atlanta does win straight up 34.6% of the time in our simulations, but it is not likely. The Falcons were out-gained on a per-play basis over the course of the season (including in the playoffs last week, which was their first game against a playoff team since Week 5) despite playing an easy schedule. Teams with young, athletic quarterbacks, like Carolina with Cam Newton (twice), Seattle with Russell Wilson and even Washington with Robert Griffin III (for a half before injury) have moved the ball at will against this defense that has allowed over six yards-per-play (only four teams, including Atlanta, were that bad this season) and 4.8 yards-per-rush (just four teams were worse in 2012). While protecting the football and not committing penalties are important traits not to be ignored, Atlanta does not rank in the top five overall in any of our metrics. In fact, the Falcons are only in the top ten overall in pass efficiency.

Seattle self-destructed early last week and still almost won over Atlanta. San Francisco presents an even tougher challenge to the Falcons and is not likely to hurt itself as badly. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, San Francisco wins over Atlanta 65.4% of the time and by an average score of 26.7-20.1 As four point favorites who win by almost a touchdown on average, the 49ers cover the spread 56.4% of the time, which would warrant a $42 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (49.5) is barely playable.

Paul's Pick: Baltimore +9.5 @ New England (Covers 54.9%)

So, these two teams already met this season. While Baltimore failed to cover a -3 spread, the Ravens did win at home over New England, 31-30. It certainly can be misleading to put much stock in one Week 3 meeting when evaluating two teams deep in the postseason, but the first game gains relevance considering the two teams have now met five times in the last four seasons. Over that stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 straight-up, yet have never lost by more than six points. In four of those five games, the game was decided in the last minute. In the other, a Wild Card round game from 2009-10 in which Joe Flacco and the Ravens were 3.5 point underdogs, Baltimore won outright, 33-14 in New England. And, as we noted last week with Houston, each of the Patriots' six losses in the postseason since their last Super Bowl has come against a team it played in the regular season.

Not only do these teams matchup well in general, not nearly as much has changed since the first matchup as may be assumed. Baltimore played without Terrell Suggs in the first game. The Ravens then lost Ray Lewis and LarDarius Webb for significant time, while Haloti Ngata clearly played hurt and the offense began to struggle. Now, Lewis is back, Suggs and Ngata are playing their best football of the season right now and, an offensive coordinator shift from Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell, has the Ravens moving the ball well again. Weeks 7-17 may be mostly forgettable for the Ravens, but this current team looks similar enough to what we saw in Week 3 to expect Baltimore to be able to keep this competitive.

Meanwhile, New England made a deft roster move by picking up cornerback Aqib Talib, but in a situation that more than cancels out Talib's added value, tight end Rob Gronkowski reinjured his forearm and will miss this game. On the year, New England averages 0.6 fewer yards-per-play without Gronkowski on the field (as compared to with him on the field). He may not have seemed to be as integral to the team this season as he was last year, but that is a very significant and important difference. Six yards-per-play, what New England averaged in 2012-13 with Gronkowski on the field, would rank fourth in the NFL this season. Without him out there, New England averaged 5.4 yards-per-play, which would rank just 16th overall (the Patriots counter that with tempo, so I am not saying that they are an "average" offense without Rob Gronkowski, but they are much closer to average without him than with him). The perception is that New England played very well down the stretch after losing to Baltimore, yet with the re-injury to a focal point of the offense and the fact that the Patriots are still only 6-6 ATS over the last 12 weeks, the Patriots are not that much better (or worse for that matter) than they were in Baltimore.

By the numbers, Baltimore is 13-5 SU and 9-8-1 ATS against the league's 17th toughest schedule for 2012-13. The Ravens out-gained their opponents by almost a half a yard-per-play (+0.49) and, while not necessarily elite in anything, they are above average in all of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. Teams with glaring weaknesses are more likely to be blown out than solid teams that may be inferior in the matchup yet are not as easily exploited.

On the season, New England is 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS against the 26th ranked NFL schedule. The Patriots have been greater than touchdown favorites eight times this season and have covered in just three of those games (including in Week 17 against a Miami team that had nothing to play for). The Patriots averaged the highest number of plays and points-per-game this season. However, they only out-gained opponents by 0.11 yards-per-play on the year (including the games with Gronkowski). New England's defense has been an issue even with Talib on the field. The Patriots rank sixth worst in the league in yards-per-pass allowed and only generated a sack on 6% of all opponents' drop-backs (below average - tenth worst in the league). And, while Baltimore clearly struggled against elite return man Trindon Holliday last week, the Patriots ranked as the fourth worst kickoff return team and as an NFL average punt return team. New England has the better team and is playing at home, so it should win, but recent history and improved play by the Ravens suggest 9.5 (or more) points is too many (this line opened anywhere from 7.5 to 10 and will probably close at either 8.5 or 9 - obviously, the tone of this write-up would be very different at 7.5 as we would be picking New England, but the value is just too great in Baltimore now).

In 50,000 games played of Ravens @ Patriots, New England wins 68.3% of the time and by an average score of 32.1-24.4. As 9.5 point underdogs, Baltimore covers the spread 54.9% of the time, which would justify a $26 play from a normal $50 player. With almost 57 points scored on average, the OVER (51) is actually our strongest opinion of the weekend. The OVER is now 12-4-1 in Patriots games this season (10-8 for Baltimore). In the four UNDER games for New England, the Patriots played on Miami (twice), Jacksonville and Arizona - three teams that all finished in the bottom ten of our NFL offensive team rankings. At 57.9% to cover, we are confident enough in the OVER to recommend a $58 play from a normal $50 player.



Super Bowl Odds

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player stats to play, one play at a time, the NFL Playoffs bracket 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to win the Super Bowl. The rest of the NFL Playoffs are played all the way through individually, with the team that wins each game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.

With a loss to the previous strongest team in the league, the Denver Broncos, the NFC's best, San Francisco 49ers, have jumped up to become the most likely Super Bowl champion by winning it all in 38.2% of 50,000 simulations. Going into last week, the 49ers were 17.5% likely to win the Super Bowl. While obviously looking very good in their own right on the field, San Francisco has benefited greatly from upsets elsewhere that has given the team a clearer path than expected. Getting to face Atlanta instead of Seattle (even on the road) helps the 49ers, as does the loss to the similarly well-rounded Denver Broncos, who, with their experience at quarterback and elite pass rush, would have been favored over the 49ers. Despite a slightly weaker conference championship winning percentage than New England , San Francisco edges the Patriots in the most likely Super Bowl - very important to note since New England would likely be favorites in the sports books in that game - to become our most likely current champion. With 2:1 current Super Bowl futures odds - which would require 33.3%+ confidence to play - San Francisco is a valuable Super Bowl futures wager.

After the 49ers, the New England Patriots are the second most likely Super Bowl champion. New England wins 37.7% of all simulated Super Bowls. As presently constructed and without any further injuries of note (to any team), New England would be a slight underdog to San Francisco in our projections, yet a full touchdown favorite over Atlanta if the Falcons advance. The Patriots and 49ers combine to win 75.9% of all Super Bowls. New England is currently a prohibitive 6:5 favorite to win the Super Bowl in the sports books. This would require 54.5% confidence to play - a steep price considering that there are three other teams remaining (two of which were also here at this level last year).

The Patriots are followed by the Atlanta Falcons who have a 12.3% chance to win the Super Bowl, yet would not be favored over either AFC team if they get there. That being said, given that NFC teams win 50.5% of the remaining Super Bowls, the NFC +3 for the Super Bowl as of right now looks appealing . Atlanta at 6:1 odds (requires 14.3% confidence) to win the Super Bowl, is not quite playable.

Baltimore, which has to go on the road and face a very strong team this weekend, is the least likely Super Bowl champion. The Ravens win the Super Bowl 11.9% of the time, which is still about one out of every eight simulations. Some books have Baltimore at 15:2 or 8:1 (or greater), which would each be valuable plays on Super Bowl futures odds for the Ravens. And for those still curious about an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, that occurs 20.3% of the time. Unfortunately for John and the Ravens, San Francisco over Baltimore is only possible Super Bowl matchup that we project to be won by more than a touchdown. A Harbaugh-led team wins the Super Bowl 50.1% of the time.

Last year, at this time, an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl was 16.9% likely. Also of note from last season, no team at this time was greater than 33% or less than 20% likely to win the Super Bowl. Now, we have two teams with a better than 35% and two teams with a weaker than 15% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds (based on rest of 2013 NFL Playoffs played 50,000 times)
Team Super Bowl Win
San Francisco 49ers 38.2%
New England Patriots 37.6%
Atlanta Falcons 12.3%
Baltimore Ravens 11.9%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ben burns main event falcons

matt fargo enforcer 49ers

nover 2* 49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's 78.5% ATS FALCONS/49ERS BLOWOUT WINNER -- Sunday

Al McMordie's had a terrific NFL Season, as he ranked #1 in the Regular Season on his Top Plays with the Sports Monitor (76.7%), and he's also 5-3 on all selections in the Playoffs. Here, pick up Big Al's 49ers/Falcons BLOWOUT winner, as it falls into a Super 78.5% ATS NFL Playoff System. Get on it.

Price: $25.00.....Atl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOCS SPORTS


3 Unit Play. #302 Take Under 49.5 in San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 3 pm FOX) Nobody is giving the Falcons much of a chance in this game, as evidenced by the fact that the 49ers are favored on the road and the number keeps rising,. However, I expect the Falcons to have a much better plan on defense than did Green Bay. The Packers could not stop the running ability of Colin Kaepernick, but you can bet that will be the sole focus on the Falcons during this week's preparation. The 49ers have a rock-solid defense and should find things much easier this week facing Matt Ryan compared to Aaron Rogers, especially in the passing game. Therefore, the only chance that Atlanta has is to keep the ball away from San Francisco by controlling the time of possession of this game. The Falcons have gone under the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games. With all 4 games going over the posted total last week, the oddsmakers set this total too high, and we will take advantage of a favorable number.

Play the Under

4 Unit Play. #303 Take Baltimore Ravens +8 over New England Patriots (Sunday 6:30 pm CBS) The Ravens are a much more well-rounded team than the Texans are, and they actually have confidence when playing the Patriots. These two teams met earlier in the season, and the Ravens beat the Patriots in a primetime high-scoring game, and it would not surprise me if history repeats itself on Sunday yet again. Baltimore has a quarterback and wide receivers that can threaten this suspect Patriots defense. New England will be hindered on offense without Rob Gronkowski. They will still be able to move the football and score points. However, they will not be as explosive. Everybody believes that the Ravens defense is old and overrated, but I still believe when healthy they are a formidable obstacle. Remember, Denver had a kickoff return and punt return for a touchdown last week. And, for the most part, Baltimore did a good job on containing Peyton Manning, especially in the second half and overtime. Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games. New England is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home playoff games. Take the points, as this game will be a battle for 60 minutes that goes down to the wire.

New England by 3





ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play. Take #302 Atlanta (+4) over San Francisco (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

This play is from my NFL 411 System and this is my only play of the week. I am going to go against the public and everyone this weekend and go with the Falcons. I like the home team in this big game. And I think that no matter who wins this is going to be a close game so I will take the points. The Falcons have been undervalued all season long. They are a great home team and I think that they have a good chance to win this game. San Francisco lost two of its last three road games. And they almost blew their game at New England and that would've been three losses in a row on the road. I think that Atlanta is going to be able to move the ball against San Francisco's defense. The Falcons have an excellent passing game and it will be tough to keep them out of the end zone. Atlanta won eight of nine home games this year and the only loss was in Week 17 when the Falcons didn't have anything to play for. I think that they are good enough to win this game. The public is all over San Fran but I am going to have my money on the other side. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's 100% PERFECT NEW ENGLAND/BALTIMORE WINNER -- Sunday

Al McMordie was 3-1 in the Playoffs last week (5-3 in the Playoffs, overall), and has had a terrific NFL campaign this year (including 76.7% on his NFL Reg. Season Top Plays, which ranked #1 with the Sports Monitor). Now, in the game between Baltimore & New England, get Big Al's AFC Championship WINNER out of a 100% PERFECT Playoff System!

Price: $25.00.............PATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHARLES COVERS

1000* San Francisco / Baltimore NFL parlay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take #303 Baltimore (+8.5) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 51.5 Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play #301 Take San Francisco/Atlanta UNDER 49 (Sunday @ 3pm est)

4-Unit Play #303 Take Baltimore/New England UNDER 51.5 (Saturday @ 6:30pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

San Francisco at Atlanta

Pick: San Francisco -3

The Falcons finished with the best record in the NFC at 13-3 and disposed of one of the hottest teams in the NFL last week. But, there are still a lot of question marks with this team. All three of their opponents in the NFC South finished below .500, so they had six divisional games against below .500 teams. Their schedule saw them facing the AFC West which had three of the four teams below .500 as well. The only AFC West team they played with a winning record was Denver in week two, before Peyton Manning got his sea-legs under him. The Falcons went through the last 11 games of their schedule without playing a single team that made the playoffs. The path for this team to get here was as easy as it gets. Does that mean they are a total fraud? No. This is a solid team and at home they are very good. They beat the Seattle Seahawks last week to get here. Seattle is a great team, but also one that was playing on the opposite coast for the second straight week and that clearly made the difference last week as they fell behind 20-0. Once Seattle showed up, they handily beat the Falcons. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle, but they aren't as road weary, and they have more experience. It's hard to imagine San Francisco putting up a dead half like Seattle did last week and if they don't Atlanta is going to have their hands full. The 49ers are on a mission after coming so close last year, so I expect them to finish the job here in Atlanta. Teams that come close and fail one year are very focused the next. While Russell Wilson had his way, picking his spots for 60 yards on just seven carries, the San Francisco offense is geared toward giving another great running QB an opportunity to make plays. Since the insertion of Colin Kaepernick, the Niners’ offense has gone from good, at 23.6 points per game to elite at 28.1 ppg. When you couple that with a defense that ranks #2 in fewest points allowed, it will be the most complete team Atlanta has faced all season - and a far cry from the type of talent they played most of the season. The Niners have been playing above the line for just about three years now at 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36, while the Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoffs games. Since Harbaugh took over, the Niners have stepped up their game vs. the best teams, going a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. Take the Niners here (buy to -3).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Reporter.......SUNDAY, JANUARY 20


*NEW ENGLAND over BALTIMORE by 7*

And for the first time since last season, these two teams meet in the AFC Cham-*
pionship Game! (Ha-ha, funny announcer joke there). These perpetual playoff per-*
formers have met six times since December 2007, and the final margins of those*
games, starting with the most recent, have been: 1, 3 in OT, 3 in OT, 19, 6 and 3.*
In those six games, the Ravens have totaled more points than the Patriots, 148-*
144. The 19-point win was theirs, on this field, in the post-season. But in the six*
games, New England is 4-2 SU and (3-3 ATS). If you have a good memory, you’ll*
remember that the Pats were favored by -20.5 against the Ravens in 2007, New*
England’s undefeated regular season, but won the game only 27-24 late. Aside*
from that game, the other four spreads have been 7.5 once, 2.5 or 3 four times,*
with New England favored four times. The Patriots’ three wins against Baltimore*
in these six games have been by 3, 3, 6 and 3 points. Last year, then-Baltimore*
place-kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal that would have tied the AFC*
Championship Game at the end of regulation, after the Ravens had dropped a pass*
in the end zone. In other words, New England was lucky to escape this field with a*
win last season. In a Week 3 meeting this season, the Patriots were the +2.5 road*
underdog. In that game, the Pats were the team that got screwed by the refs (for*
a change, as far as Baltimore is concerned) and the Ravens kicked a last-second*
field goal to win. If the Week 3 game had been played at New England, the Pats*
would have been a -3.5 favorite.*
Yet here is New England favored by the same 9.5 point margin they were favored*
by last Sunday against namby-pamby Houston (who we liked at that number and*
did not win with), a squad that lacked the long-term emotional fire, physicality and*
tenaciousness that these Ravens have consistently displayed.*
So, it’s almost one of those deals where people might say, “Hey, d’ere beggin’ ya*
ta take Bawltimore here!” But Bookmakers don’t beg anybody to take anything.*
They set numbers that they figure will attract equal amounts of side action, people*
bet, and they adjust if necessary.* An analysis of this season’s meeting shows that*
Baltimore – with recently fired Cam Cameron still the offensive coordinator – was*
not afraid to get involved in a shootout. Joe Flacco threw 39 times and the offense*
rushed only 26 times. The Ravens’ run-pass yardage splits were 382-121 (yes,*
they totaled 500+ yards of offense against the Patriots in Week 3). Joe Flacco*
threw for 9.8 yards per attempt, which is an interesting number, and we’ll tell*
you why: His YPA for the season was 7.2. Tom Brady’s YPA for that game was*
8.2, and it was 7.7 for the season. Last week at Denver, Flacco’s YPA was 9.5. If*
Flacco is having a breakthrough period and on the verge of another 9+ YPA game*
of big plays, then, of course, Baltimore will be ‘right there’ in the final minutes.*
The Patriots had a negative YPA differential this season, which means that for all*
the passing yards racked up by Tom Brady and the receivers, opponents got more*
passing yards against their defense. However, part of that particular stat is that*
New England often led by margins that forced opponents to throw a lot. In fact,*
New England led the Week 3 game 13-0 at the end of the first quarter, which im-*
mediately put the Ravens into “chase via pass mode.” But you know what? New*
England also trailed 31-3 on this field to the physical, run-based, pass-blossoming*
49ers team coached by Baltimore coach John Harbaugh’s older brother Jim. You*
knock the Patriots in the mouth and on their butts coming out of the gate, and they*
might win the game, but not by a lot. Via the same formula from last week, New*
England is overvalued by 4 points if Baltimore can play them even in TO Margin,*
by 1 point if the Ravens can hold it to -1. Ravens’ defensive coordinator Dean Pees*
is a key unseen guy here. He was the former Patriots’ DC from 2006-’09 before*
joining the Baltimore staff in 2010. He’s happy that TE Rob Gronkowski will be out,*
but it’s not like the Patriots’ offense has ever been stone-cold without the guy.*
NEW ENGLAND, 34-27.*




RECOMMENDED*


SAN FRANCISCO over *ATLANTA by 13*
Hey, the New York Giants beat Green Bay by 28, and San Francisco by 23 (they*
didn’t make the playoffs). San Francisco beat Green Bay by 8, then by 14. Atlanta*
beat the New York Giants by 34! Does that mean that Atlanta – the home underdog*
-- should blow the 49ers out of the Georgia Dome? On the surface, playing it the*
way of the ol’ common-opponent game would make it seem like that should hap-*
pen. But the game isn’t played on a theoretical surface based on past scores. It’s*
played on a field with about 120 collisions per game.*
We are going to have to follow something that has been stated in Sports Reporter*
on multiple occasions this season: if the home underdog doesn’t have the bet-*
ter defense, then we’re not too hot for the home underdog. The Atlanta Falcons*
defense had a nice year – only 19.2 ppg allowed in the regular season. But the*
San Francisco 49ers allowed only 17.9 ppg in the regular season, and only 4.7*
yards per play vs. Atlanta’s average defensive yield of 5.9 yards per play. When*
the road favorite has a good running game and the better defense, then the road*
favorite has an opportunity for an impressive win, because the road favorite can*
run the ball to keep it out of the hands of the opposing offense, before their bet-*
ter defense has opportunities to make that key stop or two against the home*
offense that helps them maintain their scoreboard margin. San Francisco had a*
pretty good running game before Colin Kaepernick became a terrorizing runner*
from the quarterback position. Remember Frank Gore? He’s still back there. If*
Atlanta takes a long, hard look at what Green Bay failed to do in defensive contain-*
ment last Saturday against the 49ers’ zone-read, they should limit Kaepernick’s*
rushing yardage. But San Francisco has other weapons, Gore being one of them,*
and the guy is a pretty good pass-blocker, too. The Falcons have some small-*
ish, ball-hawking defensive backs who are overmatched physically against the*
49ers receivers Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Randy Moss. It’s similar to*
the physical mismatches we feared existed between the 49ers’ receivers and the*
Packers’ secondary, which we thought Green Bay could overcome with a Pick-6.*
They got one on the first drive! And still lost by 14 points. Not fun to be right, right*
away, and still be wrong in the end. It takes a pretty good team to come back from*
in-game deficits against a good pass offense like Green Bay’s, twice, and open up*
a 21-point margin in the fourth quarter.*
The stadium crew hasn’t been able to awaken Packers’ defensive coordinator*
Dom (ZZzzzzz) Capers from his deep sleep in the San Francisco booth. Atlanta*
DC Mike Nolan is probably more alert and willing to adjust to the relatively new*
uniqueness of the 49ers’ awesomeness zipping out of the backfield with the ball.*
However, in the Falcons’ experiences against mobile quarterbacks this season,*
there is reason to doubt them. Russell Wilson is coming off a career game against*
them -- 385 passing yards, seven rushes for 60 yards. Cam Newton of Carolina*
ran nine times for 86 yards in Week 3 against them, then in Week 14 had nine*
carries for 116 yards. Robert Griffin III ran the ball only one time against them, so*
it can’t be said that Atlanta shut him down. Atlanta defensive end John Abraham*
seems like an excellent candidate to be trapped into barreling inside for Kae-*
pernick to run around him. That’s if Abraham plays. He didn’t in the second half*
against Seattle, and Seattle outscored the Falcons 28-10 in those two quarters.*
Hello. Meanwhile, Matt (33-6 at home) Ryan and the Falcons’ lined up against*
many 3-4 defenses this season, but when they did: Kansas City’s was injured like*
crazy on opening day; San Diego’s offense turned it over 4 times to their defense*
in that game’s key thing; the Falcons had only 7 points after three quarters at*
Washington; the Falcons totaled only 19 total points against Dallas; Ryan threw 5*
interceptions against Arizona. The 49ers’ defense is better than all of them.

SAN*FRANCISCO, 34-21.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Points*


San Francisco over *Atlanta by 10*


Maybe the Falcons think they’ve erased their embarrassing 0-3 playoff stigma in*
the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era. We don’t. Thanks only to the big leg of Matt*
Bryant, the Falcons survived blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead at HOME to*
a tired Seattle team. The Falcons had problems containing Russell Wilson. Wait*
until they get a look at Colin Kaepernick, who rushed for an NFL-record 181*
yards against Green Bay and threw two touchdowns while displaying a strong and*
accurate touch. The Falcons may be without their best pass rusher, too, as John*
Abraham reinjured his ailing right ankle. Atlanta is soft. The Falcons proved it*
again only getting bailed out by their kicker from turning in one of the greatest*
choke jobs. Atlanta played the league’s easiest schedule winning 13 games versus*
foes with a .422 winning percentage. All of their games inside Georgia Dome*
except one were decided by six points or fewer. Seattle was just the third playoff*
team the Falcons faced all season. The other two were Denver in Week 2 before*
the Broncos began playing their best ball and Washington in Week 6 when the*
Redskins were in the process of opening 3-6. The Falcons had to struggle to win*
both of those games nearly blowing a 27-0 lead against Denver before winning 27-*
21 and defeating Washington, 24-17, by scoring a touchdown with 2:46 left. The*
49ers have the hardest hitting defense in the league. San Francisco allowed 17.1*
points per game, second-stingiest in the NFL. The 49ers ranked in the top four in*
total defense, pass defense and rushing defense. The 49ers did that against stronger*
competition having taken on playoff teams Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle twice*
and New England. The 49ers surrendered 143 yards per game in the five games*
they lost. Atlanta, though, doesn’t run the ball well. Michael Turner is past his*
prime and Jacquizz Rodgers is one of the slowest running backs in the league. San*
Francisco’s star run-stuffer Justin Smith showed against Green Bay that he could*
play effectively despite a torn triceps muscle by being in on five tackles despite*
often getting double-teamed. The 49ers recorded 33 of their 38 sacks during the*
regular season when Smith was in the lineup. Opposing quarterbacks had just a*
73.5 rating when Smith was playing compared to 93 when he was out for three*
games. Thanks to Kaepernick, the 49ers’ offense has gone from dull to dynamic.*
Frank Gore still has plenty left, Michael Crabtree has emerged as a legitimate No.*
1 receiver and tight end Vernon Davis must be respected. Atlanta has problems*
stopping the run giving up 4.8 yards a carry. This bodes well for Gore. San*
Francisco has nine Pro Bowl selections. The Falcons had three. The 49ers played*
last Saturday giving them an extra day of rest, crucial this late in the season. The*
matchup is set for 3 p.m., which isn’t an early starting time for the West Coast*
49ers. In the previous three seasons, five of the last six teams that won on Saturday*
of the divisional round won the following week to reach the Super Bowl. It’s a*
reflection of what the oddsmaker thinks about the Falcons that he makes them an*
underdog despite having home field. But is the Falcons’ home field edge really that*
strong? The Falcons are second to New England during the past five years in home*
victories with 34. Yet this season, they averaged 24.5 points at Georgia Dome*
compared to 27.9 on the road. Ryan completed 71.9 percent of his throws away*
compared to 65.1 percent at home with 21 touchdown passes on the road to 11*
at home during the regular season. Ryan’s home quarterback rating was 86. It was*
111 away. The Falcons had negative net yards per play at home. The 49ers have*
the much stronger defense and their offense is peaking. SAN FRANCICO 30-20.*


*New England over Baltimore by 14*


The gauntlet is too much for the Ravens to upset Peyton Manning and Tom Brady*
in successive weeks. Maybe if the Baltimore defense was still in its prime it could*
happen, but the Ravens are too crippled up and going against one of the finest ver-*
satile offenses of its generation. So there’s no Rob Gronkowski and maybe no*
Danny Woodhead for New England. That’s not a big deal for Tom Brady. He still*
has other top receiving targets, including Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, along*
with other good running backs. The Patriots’ offense is very deep. It can run effec-*
tively with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen and Brady, of course, can pass it*
around. Ridley was the seventh-leading rusher in the NFL with 1,263 yards. This*
was 120 yards more than what the more heralded Ray Rice picked up on the*
ground. The Ravens should have forced New England into overtime, if not won,*
in last year’s AFC title matchup, but Lee Evans dropped a touchdown pass and*
Billy Cundiff missed a field goal at the end allowing the Patriots to escape with a*
23-30 home win. The Ravens got a token of revenge in Week 3 when they nipped*
the Patriots, 31-30, at M&T Stadium failing to cover, though, as short chalk. New*
England has gotten much better since then and the Ravens have regressed. The*
Patriots have won 10 of their last 11. Their average win margin during their past*
nine victories is 21.3 points. Since that first meeting against New England,*
Baltimore has lost several key defensive players, while others are far from 100 per-*
cent. The Ravens are 2-4 in their last six games. Kudos to them for upsetting*
Denver on the road last week in double overtime. That’s only one game, though,*
and the victory raises questions about how much the Ravens have left in the tank*
playing in their third road game in four weeks and if their special teams coverage*
units are vulnerable after giving up two return touchdowns. Joe Flacco played well*
against Denver. Flacco does not have a good road history, however. Neither do the*
Ravens who are just 8-10 SU in their past 18 road matchups. Flacco had a 15-to-*
5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home while averaging 8.3 yards per pass*
attempt. Those numbers shrunk to 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the*
road and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens lost this season on the road to the*
Eagles and Texans by 30. The Patriots were 2-0 versus Houston beating the Texans*
by a combined 41 points. Baltimore had the third-worst offense on the road. The*
Ravens averaged 17.6 points in regulation during their eight regular-season away*
games. That’s not going to cut it against a New England offense that ranked first*
in points at 34.8 per game and No. 1 in total yards at 427.9. The Patriots have*
scored at least 34 points in seven of their last 10 games. The Ravens haven’t been*
able to slow down a playoff offense all season except the Colts surrendering 30*
points to the Patriots, 43 to the Texans, 31 to the Redskins, 34 and 35 to the*
Broncos. Ray Lewis might not admit it, but his team’s defense is far from elite. So,*
the Ravens are going to have to keep up with the Patriots offensively. Baltimore’s*
offensive line played well last week, especially tackles Bryant McKinnie and*
Michael Oher. New England’s defense, fortified by an excellent rookie class, has*
improved. The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in run defense and in fewest points*
allowed holding foes to an average of 20.7 per game. The Ravens have done well*
reaching the AFC championship game for the second consecutive season, the first*
time they’ve achieved that in franchise history. But that’s as far as a battered*
defense and mediocre road offense can carry them against a great offense and solid*
defense. NEW ENGLAND 34-20. *

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Tuley.......sharps vs squares

Matchup:*San Francisco 49ers*at*Atlanta Falcons
Spread:*49ers minus-4
Public consensus pick:*63 percent picked 49ers
Public perception:*The public loves to bet what they last saw, and their last remembrances of the NFC divisional playoff games were the 49ers running all over the Packers and the Falcons nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. PickCenter has more than 60 percent of the public on the 49ers, and that's consistent with other bet-tracking sites. The 49ers are favored despite Atlanta being 8-1 straight up at home this year, with the only loss being in Week 17, when the Falcons had their No. 1 seed locked up*(and 33-6 SU with Matt Ryan as the starter). They continue to be the most disrespected No. 1 seed in recent memory.

Wiseguys' view:*The wiseguys also jumped all over the 49ers when betting opened up Sunday afternoon while the Falcons' game was still in progress, but keep in mind that that was when lines from 49ers minus-1 to minus-2.5 were available. After the Falcons rallied on Matt Bryant's late field goal, most books were at minus-3 and were quickly bet to minus-3.5. That's where sharp bettors stopped (as no wiseguy worth his salt is going to lay more than a field goal when they could have gotten it lower no matter how much they like the team). It was the public that continued to push it higher as it peaked at several books at minus-4.5 (and some "square shops" at minus-5) before drifting back down. There's no doubt that several sharp bettors are holding tickets on 49ers minus-2.5 (or lower) and Falcons plus-4.5 and hoping for a middle to win both.
Tuley's Take:*I really thought this line would come with the Falcons as a slight home favorite or pick-em, so I certainly see value in the Falcons getting more than a field goal at home. Home underdogs are 22-11 ATS in the NFL playoffs (and, in fact, 20-13 straight up) under the current playoff format, and that includes the loss by the*Washington Redskins*in the wild-card round against the Seahawks. I believe the 49ers are going to get their points, and in watching last week's game it scared me when I saw the Atlanta defense flying to*Marshawn Lynch*on read-option plays --*Russell Wilson*could have had a lot more rushing yards. Hopefully they see the same thing on film, correct that and keep backside containment, or*Colin Kaepernick*will have a field day.
The key for me is if the Falcons can match them score-for-score. The 49ers' defense is very good, but in today's NFL that's not as much of a guarantee of success as it once was with all the rules favoring the offense. If the Falcons execute like they did in the first half against the Seahawks (another very good defense), they'll live up to their No. 1 seed and exceed people's expectations. If they don't execute, they'll get run out of the building. I'm counting on the former (and just pray they don't play too conservatively if they get the lead again).*The pick:*Falcons.


Matchup:*Baltimore Ravens*at*New England Patriots
Spread:*Patriots minus-9.5
Public consensus pick:*56 percent picked Ravens
Public perception:*The public is on the underdog Ravens for many reasons. For one, the oddmakers know that there's a segment of the public that will back the Patriots at any price, so they posted the line high to balance the books. There are also those who believe in the "Ray Lewis*farewell tour" and that they're going to put forth their best effort for their retiring leader. Besides, you don't have to be a wiseguy to know that the Ravens have played the Patriots tough over the years, including beating them 31-30 back in Week 3 and covering and nearly beating them (if not for a*Lee Evans*drop) in the AFC title game just last year at New England. None of the teams' past six meetings have been decided by more than six points, so taking more than a TD makes sense.
Wiseguys' view:*There are also many sharps on the Baltimore side, though they were hoping the public would push the line to minus-10. It's not as much due to the Ravens' matching up well with the Patriots as it is that the Pats aren't as dominant as many believe them to be. New England is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as playoff favorites (and one of those was last week's 41-28 cover against the Texans as 9.5-point favorites, though the back door was open if Houston had acted with more of a sense of urgency on its final drive).
Tuley's Take:*As a contrarian* bettor, it does give me pause when it appears that*everyone*is on the same side. Obviously, the Ravens match up with the Patriots based on recent history and these teams know each other very well. That should result in a close game. The concerns are that the Patriots are 4-0 SU at home in AFC title games. So just like last year, it's tough to go into Foxboro and win, plus the Pats don't take the foot off the gas and are very capable of tacking on that extra score to cover the number (which is why bettors love them so much!), but anything over a touchdown has to be a take.*The pick:*Ravens.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Burns Write Up

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Last week, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were the talk of the town. This week, its Colin Kaepernick and the 49'ers who are all the rage. I feel that they're over-valued.
While they've had an extra day in between games, the 49'ers are still a West Coast team playing on the East Coast. While he may indeed be pretty "special," Kaeparnick is still a rookie making his first playoff road start.
While they are obviously a very talented team, I've found that every time that the 49'ers start winning a couple in a row, everyone wants to start handing them the Super Bowl. More often than not, that's when they've stumbled. (They were just 2-5 ATS and 2-4-1 SU after two straight wins.)
Many aren't giving the Falcons any credit for last week's win. They only see a team which nearly blew it and can't get over Atlanta's past postseason failures. I see a team which jumped all over a very opponent and a team which had the poise to come back and win, when it really mattered. I also see a team which exorcised some demons by earning that elusive playoff win.
Last week, I said the Falcons were being "disrespected," as they were barely favored against Seattle. This week, they're getting more than a field goal against the 49'ers, a team which was recently destroyed (42-13) by the Seahawks. Needless to say, I feel that the #1 seed is again being dis-respected.
Seemingly tired of being "disrespected," the Falcons were 3-0 ATS as underdogs (or in pick'em games) this season. All three of those resulted in outright victories. In fact, the Falcons didn't just win, they crushed those opponents.
When getting three points at San Diego, they won 27-3. When getting three points at Philadelphia, they won 30-17. Then, when listed at pick'em here at home against the Giants, the Falcons won by a score of 34-0. That's a combined score of 91-20 in the Falcons' favor, in the three games when they weren't favored.
The Falcons are 21-5 here the past few years, including 8-1 here this season. I'll happily take the points but expect them to win outright. *10 nfc main event

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gill Alexander
3* Baltimore +9

2* San Fran -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Text for sunday : Falcons + points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root
Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) falcons
millionaire patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread - Pick

Baltimore Ravens (12-6 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS)
2013 AFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: CBS
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Bal +9/NE -9
Over/Under Total: 51.5

After a long summer of OTA's, 17 weeks of a regular season and two weeks of playoff football we're right back to where we all started … with the Baltimore Ravens playing the New England Patriots for the second consecutive season in the AFC Championship game this Sunday in Gillette Stadium.

Sunday's game will be a rematch of last year's AFC title game where the Ravens came a dropped touchdown pass, then a shanked field goal away from making it to last year's Super Bowl. It will also be a rematch of a week three game this season that saw the Ravens get a crumb of redemption back from the Patriots with a slim victory at home in Baltimore, 31-30.

Baltimore is back in this year's AFC Championship after pulling off the upset of the 2013 playoff season in last week's double-overtime stunner in Denver, 38-35. The Ravens pulled off the upset (closed as 10-point underdogs at some sportsbooks) when Jacoby Jones inexplicably got behind the Broncos defense for a game-tying 70-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left in regulation, then nailed the Broncos coffin shut with an interception of Peyton Manning and a 47-yard field goal by rookie kicker Justin Tucker early in the second overtime period.

New England earned the right to defend their AFC title when they dispatched the Houston Texans in the Divisional round last Sunday, 41-28. The Patriots overcame a momentum-swinging opening kickoff return by the Texans to take back control of the game and never let go, as Tom Brady threw for 344 yards and three scores to give New England their second straight title game appearance and fifth overall since the 2001-02 season.

Oddsmakers originally set the opening point spread for Sunday's AFC title rematch with New England as large 9.5-point favorites at home, but with the most of the early money raining down on the Ravens (up to 75-80 % at some online sportsbooks) the number has come down the hook to minus -9 at most sportsbooks on the Web and most of the properties out in Las Vegas.

The over/under total opened at 51.5 and has yet to move in either direction at most books, although if you look really hard you may find a token 51 or even a 52 at sportsbooks willing to put the push result back in play.

When breaking down this game offensively you really have one team's approach that is well known, and one that is sort of a mystery.

You pretty much know exactly what you're going to get with New England and Brady, even though the Patriots will be missing one of their biggest offensive weapons in tight end Rob Gronkowski (re-broke his forearm vs. Houston) throughout the rest of the playoffs. New England just plugs in players like backup running back Shane Vereen (three TDs vs. Texans) for Gronk, keeps defenses on the field with their "hurry-up" attack, and let's Brady make the adjustments and calls at the line of scrimmage to take advantage of what the defense gives them in mismatches.

Baltimore's defense has played well in the playoffs with their leader Ray Lewis back in the middle calling the plays, but with a limited pass rush due to nagging injuries to their best two rushers (Terrell Suggs on the edge, Haloti Ngata inside), and a secondary missing their best cover corner (Lardarius Webb) it could turn into a long day for the Ravens against the surgical-like Brady.

The Ravens best defense against Brady and New England might be their resurgent offense, which has come back to life in the postseason. Baltimore has averaged 459 yards and 31 points a game in their two playoff wins, with most of the credit due to a reworked offensive line that now features veteran Bryant McKinnie back at left tackle and Michael Oher flipped over to right tackle. Last week the Ravens ran the ball 39 times behind that "new" offensive line against a stiff Denver run defense, an approach they'll likely try and repeat on Sunday to try and keep the chains moving and keep Brady standing on the sideline.

Baltimore will also take their shots down the field to receiver Torrey Smith, who had another breakout game against Champ Bailey and the Broncos last weekend. Smith will likely draw Patriots corner Aquib Talib on most plays, a matchup the Ravens have to like despite the fact Talib has played very well since joining the Pats at the trading deadline. Smith had 127 yards and two scores for the Ravens in their week three win this season, and Flacco threw for 382 yards and three scores in that game as well, so Baltimore can't be afraid to stay aggressive in order to reverse the results of last year's title-game loss.

In last year's AFC Championship game the Ravens followed the script and held a six-minute advantage in time of possession, they just weren't able to overcome the Patriots second-half adjustments. Baltimore also lost the battle of field position throughout most of the second half, giving up twice as many return yards as they had in the game. Considering the Ravens also gave up two returns for touchdowns last week against the Broncos, the handful of special teams plays in this game will be crucial for the Ravens to change their fate this season as well.

Last year's gave closed with Baltimore as 7-point underdogs at home, so the big number shouldn't automatically scare away bettors from a wager on the Ravens. Baltimore is also a perfect 2-0 ATS this year in the playoffs, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games, and the underdog and road team is a solid 3-0-1 ATS the last four times these two teams have met on the gridiron. New England is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine home playoff games, so there's plenty of betting trends and reasons why most of the early money has been siding with the visiting Ravens.

After the Wild Card round of the playoffs saw all four games stay under the total, the Divisional round went the other way with all four games flying over the total. As a whole the under is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Gillette Stadium. The under is also 5-2 in Baltimore's last seven playoff games as well, but the over is 7-1 in New England's last eight games played in January.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The return of Ray Lewis has been a great story and has surely inspired the Ravens. Winning at Denver was incredible as the Broncos were red hot. I'm still not sold on Joe Flacco on the road though. I also believe that New England is hitting their stride and peaking at the right time. The public is one siding the Ravens to the tune of 72% and the line has barely moved but a half point. When it comes to sports betting and lines, it could be said that if something looks too good to be true, it is!
I'm laying the wood with the Patriots here in what I believe will be 14+ point margin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread - Pick

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (14-3 SU, 9-7-1 ATS)
2013 NFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 3:00 p.m. EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.
TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: SF -4/ATL +4
Over/Under Total: 48.5

For the second consecutive season the San Francisco 49ers will play in the NFC Championship game, but this year they will have to go on the road to do it when they face the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome Sunday afternoon on Fox with the winner getting a shot at the National Football League's ultimate prize, Super Bowl 47.

The 49ers emerged out of the Divisional round of the playoffs as the clear team to beat by virtue of their, 45-31, victory over the Green Bay Packers last Saturday. Young stating quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on the 49ers very first series of the game, but that was the last time he and the Niners would look bad as Kaepernick racked up 444 total yards and four touchdowns and San Francisco scored on six of their last eight possessions in the game in the impressive win.

Now the 49ers will face an Atlanta team that won the most exciting game of the NFL's postseason thus far when they slipped past the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, 30-28.

After watching the Seahawks take a 28-27 lead with just 31 seconds remaining in the game, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan moved the team 41 yards in two plays to set up kicker Matt Bryant's game-winning 49-yard field goal. Not only did Ryan's last-second heroics help to save the Falcons, who blew a 20-point lead in the second half, but it also got the monkey off the back of Ryan and head coach Mike Smith who both notched their first playoff win and put the Falcons back in the NFC Championship game for the third time in franchise history and first time since the "Dirty Birds" team of 1999.

With San Francisco looking virtually unstoppable and the Falcons getting into the title game by the skin of their teeth, oddsmakers were forced to open Sunday's NFC Championship game with the 49ers as 3-point favorites on the road. With most of the betting public clearly siding with the 49ers in the early going, the number has gone up to minus -4 or even -4.5 at most online sportsbooks after just a little over 24 hours of the point spread going live up on the board.

The over/under total has also seen its fair share of line movement as well, opening at 47.5 late on Sunday and moving up a full point to 48.5 at most sportsbooks, with a few rising as high as 49.5 before the run on the over was stopped.

The total has gone up quickly in part because Sunday's NFC title game figures to be a rather offensive one. Both teams combined for nearly 1,000 yards of total offense in the Divisional round (SF - 579, Atl. - 417), both teams combined for huge numbers in the running game (SF 7.5 yards per carry; Atl. 6.4 ypc) and both teams are stacked to the Georgia Dome roof with weapons on offense to make Sunday's game look like a potential shootout.

But if one team holds an edge on offense it has to be the 49ers, who with Kaepernick behind center, will feature his duel-threat capabilities on offense and make the Falcons defense work extra hard to stop this Sunday. If stopping running back Frank Gore behind the 49ers powerful offensive line wasn't hard enough already (Gore has 23-for-119, TD vs. GB), as soon as the defense falls asleep on the edge Kaepernick keeps it and has the speed to take huge gouges out of a defense with his legs.

Then when a defense starts creeping an extra safety down into the box to limit the Niners run game, Kaepernick has plenty enough arm to find his favorite target Michael Crabtree on the edge and over the middle behind the linebackers to keep defenses honest and move the 49ers down the field with ease. The Falcons defense did a great job of limiting the damage of Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks running game last week (46 yards on 16 carries), but they often lost contain on quarterback Russell Wilson (7 carries for 60 yards), which is a problem they must fix this week if they want any chance at stopping Kaepernick and the Niners.

That's going to put huge pressure on Atlanta defensive ends John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux and Kory Biermann this week. Abraham reinjured his ankle in the Divisional game too, and is listed as probable for Sunday's game even though he spent the latter half of the previous game sitting on his helmet on the sidelines.

Atlanta and Ryan received a huge lift from Jacquizz Rodgers in last week's win over Seattle, as the second-year back offers a great change of pace to starter Michael Turner (14 carries, 98 yards) in the Falcon running game. But with Julio Jones, Roddy White and veteran Tony Gonzales consistently finding holes and seams in the defensive secondary, it's no secret that the Falcons prefer to attack teams with Ryan throwing the ball as much as possible.

Green Bay had their best success against the Niners defense early in the game when they were consistent with running the ball, and with 49ers end Justin Smith clearly limited with his triceps injury the San Francisco pass rush was very limited last weekend as well. So look for the Falcons to continue with that theme and pound the ball on early downs to get ahead of the chains, then take shots down the field with Jones, Gonzales and White when the Niners defense is on their heels.

These two NFC teams haven't met on the field since the 2010 season, in what ended up a 16-14 Falcons win at home in the Georgia Dome in early October. That game was highlighted by a game-changing play by Roddy White, who came back after a Ryan interception to strip Nate Clemons of the ball as Clemons was about to go into the end zone. The Falcons took the turnover back down the field and kicked the game-winning field goal with two seconds left in the contest.

White's play helped the Falcons beat the 49ers for the fourth time in a row (4-0 SU since 2004), as Atlanta has enjoyed a 6-4 SU record over San Francisco over the years including a 4-1 Su mark at home in the Dome.

The betting trends are mixed, but it should be noted that the underdog is a strong 9-3 ATS in the series between these two teams in the last 12 meetings. However, Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in their last five home playoff games (0-5 ATS in last five playoff games overall), while San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in January and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the Niners to win by a touchdown or more. Atlanta's lack of run stopping makes this a really bad matchup for them. Once the defense is forced to respect the run, it'll open up the pass and this is a big problem for the Dirty Birds. Then factor in the wild card that Kaepernick will tuck it and run, and you've got chaos.
I'm betting the SF 49ers minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at ATLANTA (14-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 3:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 3½ -- OVER/UNDER: 48

Well, it took awhile, 9 years to be exact, but the Falcons have at last, tasted their
1st playoff success since taking the measure of the Rams, 47-17, in '04. As has
been their misfortune, they've been current playoff flops, losing to the Packers &
Giants ('10 & '11), by a combined 72-23 score (minus 48 pts ATS). But it sure
wasn't easy, as they blew all of a 20-pt 4th quarter lead, moving 41 yds on 3 plays
for the winning 47-yd FG in the final 0:08 vs the Seahawks, then withstanding a
near miraculous upset. That avoided what would have been the largest 4th quarter
collapse in playoff history. Ryan is at his best in pressure situations, & is 35/16 for
the year. And how about a season-high 167 RYs, behind Turner & Rodgers (6.75
ypr)? But despite the fact that they own the best record of all remaining playoff
squads, they stand at just 24th in total "D", which may offset the fact that they've
topped 22 pts in 23 of their last 28 games. But will it be enough vs the absolutely
spectacular Niners, who turned a 24-24 game in the 3rd quarter, vs the Packers,
into a 45-24 lead just 19 minutes later? The scintillating Kaepernick set a playoff
rushing record for QBs with 181 yds (11.3 ypr), including the longest TD run (56
yds) by a QB in SanFran history. Oh, the old playoff record was 119 yds (Vick).
Try 323-104 RY & 579-352 TY edges over GreenBay (38:01-21:59 time edge, &
119 RYs from Gore). Couple that explosive "O" with the NFL's 3rd ranked "D", &
it adds up to the visitor pegged as a FG fav. The Niners have proven their playoff
worth, with a 616-226 RY edge vs the Saints, Giants & Packers these last 2 years.
RATING 2: SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 20

BALTIMORE (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 6:30 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 9½ -- OVER/UNDER: 51

Does this seem familiar? It should, as these 2 combatants met in this exact same
spot just a season ago, when the Patriots (-7) prevailed by a mere 23-20 score,
thanks to brilliant defensive play to break up a seemingly winning TD pass from
Flacco, followed by a blown FG that would have tied it. A peek at the Recent Stats
column shows that there is little left on the field after the Patriots & Ravens meet,
with final margins of 3, 3, & 1 pt in their '10, '11, & 12 matches. For the Patriots,
this marks their 9th AFC Championship game (7-1 SU), & 7th for Brady/Belichick
(5-1 SU). Tom, of course, has little, if any, peers, & is at his usual brilliance, with a
3/0, 344 PY showing in last week's comfortable win over Houston, turning a 17-13
halftime lead, into a 38-13 lead early in the 4th. Brady is now 37/8 for the year, &
the Pats are at 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, as well as 34.4 ppg in their last 29
outings. Oh, Tom now sits atop all QBs with 17 playoff wins. Welker, Hernandez,
Ridley, etc, this "O" is near unstoppable. Defensive, however, is another matter,
allowing 334 PYs from Schaub, for example. Enter Joe Flacco, definitely among
the most unappreciated players in the entire NFL. Try 5/0 (TDs/INTs) in playoff
wins over the Colts & Broncos. TDs of 20, 18, 59, 32, & 70 yds, the latter 2 vs the
Broncos, in the final 0:36 of the 1st half, & in the last 0:31, which sent that game
into OT. In their earlier meeting this year, Baltimore scored 10 pts in the last 4:01,
winning it 31-30, at the final gun. Check a 503-396 Raven yd edge in that one. No,
we won't call for the outright upset, but lopsided series games simply do not occur.
RATING 4: New England 31 - BALTIMORE 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOLD SHEET

AFC & NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at ATLANTA (14-3)
San Francisco 33 - ATLANTA 24—We admit a slight surprise at the opening
line of 49ers -3½ in the NFL title game (although the number had dropped to a
more-solid 3 by later Sunday evening). Spread value or not, any price in range
of a field goal shouldn’t cause abandoning a recommendation for a team you
think is going to win the game.
Which for us in this case is San Francisco.
Do not count us among the pundits who wondered why 49er HC Jim
Harbaugh opted for the “nuclear” option in mid-November by switching QBs
from Alex Smith to 2nd-year Colin Kaepernick. By us, Harbaugh had the right
idea. Many sources reported that while Harbaugh has admiration for Smith, he
was also convinced that Kaepernick’s unique gifts gave San Francisco a better
chance to win the Super Bowl. Harbaugh also figured that if he were to make the
switch, he had to pull the trigger when he did in November; while Kaepernick’s
lack of game experience provided downside risk, his mobility and electric arm
always hinted at a ceiling far above that of Alex Smith.
But what even Harbaugh might not have expected was for NFL
defenses to turn into versions of those in the old WAC that Kaepernick
used to dominate when running the “Pistol” offense for HC Chris Ault at
Nevada. Indeed, Green Bay’s accomplished stop unit looked a lot like Idaho’s
or New Mexico State’s when Kaepernick gained an NFL QB playoff record 181
yards rushing (including TD runs of 20 and 56 yards) in last Saturday’s 45-31
romp. Moreover, Kaepernick displayed a steely resolve when bouncing back
from an early pick-six (courtesy Packer DB Sam Shields) to lead a 579-yard
offensive explosion. The big-play fireworks provided by Kaepernick provide a
much-different dimension to the Niners than at this time a year ago, when Smith
was stewarding a mostly low-risk offense that focused upon Frank Gore’s
running threat and field position provided by a suffocating defense. Those latter
elements remain basically unchanged this season, but Kaepernick’s presence
(and a burgeoning rapport with WR Michael Crabtree, who was a non-factor in
LY’s NFC title game vs. the Giants but caught 9 passes for 119 yards vs. Green
Bay) adds lots more octane to the strike force that also is beginning to drip Oregon
rookie lightning bolt LaMichael James a bit more into the mix in recent weeks.
Although Atlanta finally ended its recent playoff bugaboo last week vs.
Seattle to win in the postseason for the first time after three previous failures in
the HC Mike Smith/QB Matt Ryan era that began in 2008, it only did so after
blowing the entirety of a 20-point 4th-Q lead, and needed some last-second
heroics by Ryan and PK Matt Bryant to steal a 30-28 verdict. While establishing
an often-ineffective infantry when gaining 167 YR vs. the Seahawks, the
Falcons might have more problems doing the same vs. a 49er rush “D” that
allowed only 94 ypg and 3.7 ypc in the regular season. True, big Atlanta
receiving targets WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez
always do their share of business. But keep in mind that the Aldon Smith-led
49er LB crew features a complete cast of first or second-team NFL All-Pros.
And San Francisco has plenty of DBs to cover Ryan’s preferred weapons;
converting yards into points might be tougher vs. the 49ers than vs. Seattle.
In conclusion, Kaepernick, already having outscored Tom Brady (on the
road) and Aaron Rodgers in the last month, doesn’t figure to get spooked by this
assignment. Not with his established supporting cast and arguably the mostathletic
OL in the game against an Atlanta defensive front that was spotty vs.
the run all year (4.8 ypc) and generated little pass rush besides DE John
Abraham (10 sacks; only 18 for the rest of the team). With no hint of Mr. Hyde
in Kaepernick’s makeup, we expect the 49ers to outscore another highly-rated
foe and get Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl after last year’s near miss.
(10-ATLANTA -7 16-14...SR: San Francisco 44-30-1)

BALTIMORE (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
NEW ENGLAND 25 - Baltimore 23—If we knew that New England DBs
were going to defend the Ravens like the Denver Broncos did, this would be an
easy pick. Still, there appears to be plenty of evidence that Baltimore is ready
to give Tom Brady and the Patriots all they can handle. And not just because
the team is on some special quest to get emotional leader Ray Lewis to the
Super Bowl one last time.
The Ravens have certainly shaken their late-season blahs, which saw them
lose 4 of their last 5 games. And Baltimore has certainly shown that it will not
be fazed by facing a Bill Belichick team, as these two foes have played each
other 6 times in the last 6 years (two of those meetings in the playoffs). Only
once was the game not close, and that was a 33-14 Wildcard round Raven win
in Foxborough in 2009. Four games were Patriot victories, but by 3 in 2007
(N.E.’s 16-0 regular season), by 6 in the 2009 regular season, by 3 in OT in
2010, and by 3 last year in the AFC Championship Game. This year's meeting
was a 31-30 Raven win in Baltimore.
Moreover, Baltimore is now a better-balanced, more-mature team this time
around, mostly because of QB Joe Flacco’s big arm and greater knowledge how
to use it. Flacco is the only QB to ever win a playoff game in each of his first five
seasons. He is now 7-4 in the playoffs overall, including 5-4 on the road. Yes,
Brady now has more playoff wins (17) than any QB in history. But, sinace his
remarkable 9-0 playoff run and three Super bowl titles to start his career, Brady
is just 8-6 SU in the postseason. And, with star TE Rob Gronkowski out with a
re-fractured forearm and with valuable RB Danny Woodhead (thumb) also
injured last week, Brady’s quick-hitting attack is not operating on all cylinders.
Plus, let’s not forget last year’s 23-20 Pats’ title-game victory at Gillette
Stadium. It was a close shave indeed, as the Ravens’ then-PK Billy Cundiff
missed an unnecessarily hurried 32-yard chip-shot FG at the end that would
have tied the game at 23 and sent it to overtime! Baltimore out-gained Brady
& Co. 398 to 330 that day, with Tom Terrific throwing two ints. and Flacco one.
In the pits, Baltimore has “found something” with its recent OL adjustments,
as a slimmed-down and re-invigorated LT Bryant McKinnie has fought his way
back into the starting lineup, allowing the versatile Michael Oher to shift back to
his natural RT spot, bumping physical rookie prize Kelechi Osemele to G to pair
with all-pro Marshal Yanda. The Ravens’ 327 YR so far in the playoffs are no
accident, with both the RBs and Flacco helped greatly by the big uglies up front.
Yes, New England was focused on stopping the Houston run last week. But the
Pats recorded only one sack vs. immobile Texan QB Matt Schaub.
And has anyone noticed that Raven receiver Torrey Smith has become a
big-time, big-pay target, with the honored Champ Bailey his latest victim? That
has opened things up for possession WR Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta
& Ed Dickson for valuable ball-control receptions. On defense, when OLB
Terrell Suggs and ILB Lewis were out with their injuries, OLB Paul Kruger (9
sacks in reg. season) & ILB Dannell Ellerbe (4½) blossomed. Now, all are ready
(although Lewis & Suggs might be a bit less than 100%).
Young RB Stevan Ridley (1263 YR in regular season) and the speedy Shane
Vereen (two TDC, 1 TDR last week) have enlivened the N.E. offense. But the
Ravens have also been lifted in recent weeks, and jet-powered KR/WR Jacoby
Jones could be a problem for the Patriot STs, which struggled in coverage last
week. No surprise if this latest Baltimore-New England duel is another nailbiter.
(12-BALT. 31-N. Eng. 30...N.33-28 B.26/121 N.34/77 B.28/39/1/382 N.28/41/0/319 B.0 N.0)
(11-N. ENG. 23-Balt. 20...N.25-19 B.31/116 N.31/96 B.22/36/1/282 N.22/36/2/234 N.1 B.0)
(12-BALTIMORE -2' 31-30; 11-N. ENGLAND -7 23-20 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 7-2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons - 49ERS -4 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)
The San Francisco 49ers took care of business at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last Saturday to improve to 12-4-1 on the season, and 7-1 at home. They were 5-3 on the road this year, and head into Atlanta to take on the NFC's #1 seed in Atlanta. The Falcons barely got by Seattle at home last week with a field goal to win by 2 points. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle in that they have a great defense and a high powered offense led by a young QB in Colin Kaepernick who can also use his legs. Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, 2 TDs with 1 INT on Saturday, and added 181 yards on the ground and 2 rushing TDs. He had a QB Rating of 98.3 this season and had 415 yards rushing with 5 TDs even though he took over the starting QB job mid way through the season. The San Francisco 49ers weren't far behind Atlanta (who were 8th in the NFL on offense) at 11th with less than 2 ppg less than the Falcons. The 49ers defense was 3rd ranked in the league allowing just 294 yards against per game and 17.1 papg. The Falcons were 24th in the league overall, although they allowed just 18.7 papg. The 49ers offense should be able to get more done on the ground this week than the Seahawks did on Sunday vs the Falcons who ranked 29th in the league in yards against per carry. Take note that the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf, and 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and last week Matt Ryan barely squeaked out his first career playoff victory and he was lucky to do so. This 49ers teams is a little more experienced going to the Conference Championship game last year losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in overtime, and I think they are the better team all around. I like San Francisco to advance to the Super Bowl and cover the spread in doing so.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK MARC LAWRENCE

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

ATLANTA over San Francisco by 3
Although many will be hard-pressed to recall the Falcons’ last (and only)
trip to the Super Bowl, the fact is Atlanta made it to the Big Game
more recently than the 49ers, clinching the 1998 NFC title whereas
San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance concluded the 1994 season. And
though many NFL fans are intrigued by the possibility of a Civil War style
brother-against-brother Harbaugh showdown in February for the Lombardi
Trophy, we don’t think it’s gonna happen. Sure, Atlanta tried every way possible
to lose last week’s semifi nal matchup with Seattle, blowing a 20-point 4th
quarter lead to ruin our 4★ Late Phone play on the Dirty Birds. But to their
credit, they came back and won the game with a clutch drive in the fi nal 40
seconds to set up Matt Bryant’s 49-yard game winning FG. Meanwhile, San
Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick ran for a quarterback playoff record 181 yards and
two touchdowns (also added a pair of TD’s on passes to Michael Crabtree)
as the Niners won the Battle of the Bays, conquering the Packers, 45-31.
However, with Kaepernick leaving behind the comfy confi nes of Candlestick
Park for the raucous Georgia Dome, we don’t anticipate the well-inked QB to
repeat last week’s success. Our biggest cause for concern is Frisco coach Jim
Harbaugh’s eye-popping 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS NFL career mark versus .667 or
better opposition, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this year. We can counter that
success with this little gem from our PLAYBOOK.com database (also applies
to New England): teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff win are an
incredibly bad 3-20 ATS in their next playoff game! And with Atlanta taking
points today, the database informs us that all NFL home dogs have gone 20-
13 SU and 22-11 ATS in the playoffs, including 8-2 SUATS if .750 or better –
and 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS if they own the better win percentage. Overall, home
teams in title games off back-to-back home contests are a respectable 21-8
SU and 17-12 ATS. But when the host shows up as a dog or favorite of 3 or
fewer points, those numbers sweeten to 6-1 SUATS the last seven outings.
Falcons head coach Mike Smith is a moneymaker when playing off an ATS
defeat, going 24-6 SU and 23-7 ATS, and with the playoff monkey FINALLY off
his back, we look for the momentum from last Sunday’s miracle fi nish to carry
over today. Look out, New Orleans… here come the Dirty Birds!

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore by 3
If you think the veteran Ravens – who have played nine of their last 11
playoff games on the road – will be intimidated this Sunday night in
Foxboro, think again! Forget about Billy Cundiff’s missed 32-yard FG in
last year’s AFC championship game on this fi eld that would have sent the
game to overtime. Baltimore was a Lee Evans-dropped touchdown pass
(though some still feel it was catch) from a Super Bowl XXXV rematch with
the Giants. Ironically, the Ravens defeated the Patriots 31-30 in Week Three
of this season on rookie kicker Justin Tucker’s 27-yard FG as time expired as
they tallied 503 total yards – the most allowed by New England this year.
However, with home teams 21-8 SU in title tilts off back-to-back homers and
the Pats 4-0 SU in Foxboro in championship games, we’re hesitant to call for
the outright upset. However, we’re not worried about taking off the hoodie
in the cold weather as far as the ATS number is concerned. For starters, the
Ravens are 7-1 ATS on the postseason road versus non-division opposition
since 2000 and 10-4-1 ATS against fellow playoff teams the last two seasons
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is also 7-2 ATS in the postseason versus teams that
reside outside of the AFC North while John Harbaugh, the Birds’ head coach,
has suffered only nine losses by double-digit margins in 92 total games! The
clincher, though, may come in the form of a Ravens’ 20-3 SU and 17-8 ATS
mark after allowing 24 or more points under Harbaugh. Or perhaps it’s the
fact the database reminds us that teams who score 40 or more points in
a postseason contest are a paltry 3-20 ATS in their next playoff affair since
1996. Of course, Baltimore’s unsteady defense (owned over 100 yards the
better stop-unit in this matchup last year, but holds just a slight edge this
season) is a concern. However, New England’s recent mark as playoff chalk
(2-7 ATS last nine) and Tom Brady’s wobbly 4-8 ATS log as a playoff favorite
of 3 or more points – along with the loss of Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski –
has us singing with the Black Crows like we did in this spot last season. Once
again, it’s the Pats by the skin of Brady’s teeth… unless, of course, Ray Lewis
gets to them first! A must take.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

KEY Betting Trend:
Road teams where total is between 42.5 and 49 points, outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400+ total yards in prior game. (31-9 Over)
Play = Over total

Series History – Last 5 seasons:
ATLANTA is 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU overall vs. SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA is 1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home vs. SAN FRANCISCO

Statfox Power Trends:
ATLANTA is 3-19 ATS at home off a home win since 1992.
ATLANTA is 17-6 UNDER after a win over the L2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRAN is 22-12 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 7-0 ATS when playing top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing 7+ pass yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 15-4 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons.

The Falcons made another narrow escape at home last week. They’re 8-1 SU but 4-5 ATS at home, and they haven’t been a home underdog since October 2011. QB Matt Ryan is 34-6 SU career at the Georgia Dome, and the Falcons have won 12 of 13 SU at home, the lone loss in a meaningless Week 17 game. In two years under Jim Harbaugh, San Fran is 6-1 SU and ATS in the Eastern time zone. QB Colin Kaepernick went just 2-2 SU on the road as a starter during the 2012 regular season.

• Play Against – Road teams (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent coming off a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
(118-77 over the last 10 seasons, 60.5%, +33.3 units)
Rating = 1

• ATLANTA is 22-8 ATS under head coach Mike Smith when coming off a loss against the spread.
RATING = 2

STATFOX FORECASTER
San Francisco 49ers 23
Atlanta Falcons 21

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Betting System:
Road teams - in conference games, after a road game
where both teams scored 24 or more points. (35-10 ATS)
Play = BALTIMORE against the spread

Series History – Last 5 Seasons:
NEW ENGLAND is 2-3-1 ATS, 4-2 SU overall vs. BALTIMORE
NEW ENGLAND is 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 SU at home vs. BALTIMORE

Statfox Power Trends:
NEW ENG. is 18-4 OVER at home against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 12-1 OVER at home after 3 or more consecutive wins over L2 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 25-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 15-1 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin
of +1 or better over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 8-0 OVER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 40-23 ATS after a game where 50+ total pointscwere scored since 1992.

In last year’s title game, Baltimore came within a dropped
TD of a victory and a missed short FG of forcing OT at New
England. The Ravens haven’t been as good defensively this
year, allowing 400-plus yards six times this season. New
England hung 41 points and 457 yards on Houston last week,
but will continue to be without TE Rob Gronkowski (arm).
Even with last week’s big win, the Patriots are only 2-5 ATS
in their last seven home playoff games, and they lost SU to
Baltimore in the Divisional round three years ago.

• Play Against – Home favorites
(NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against an opponent when coming off two consecutive covers as a favorite.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons, 82.8%, +18.5 units)
Rating = 3

• Play Over – Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.
(44-19 over the last 10 seasons, 69.8%, +23.1 units)
Rating = 2

STATFOX FORECASTER
Baltimore Ravens 23
New England Patriots 31

The NFL’s Final Four Recent history suggests we could see a lot of scoring this Sunday
The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel
lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one,
no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to
2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will
have hosted only seven of the last 16 once this Sunday’s games are
played in Atlanta and New England.
With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the
typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships
has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but
we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 24-16 SU & 18-21-1
ATS in the last 40. One thing that has stayed consistent, however,
is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high
scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 24 of
40 games since ’93, and only three times in that period was the
UNDER the result in both games in a single year.

Recent Trends
We’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference
Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at
just the games since ’05, 12 of the 16 games have seen the total go
that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well
of late, with hosts on a run of 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS dating back to the
late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general
handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:

• AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results.
In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-8 SU & 7-6 ATS
in the last 13 years. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS in the last eight games.

• Overall, favorites own a slight 11-9 ATS edge in the last 10 years on
Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that
edge, going 7-3 ATS.

• Four of the last six NFC Championship games have gone OVER
the total. The home team has averaged more than 25 points per
game during that span.

Trends by Seed Number
Here’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff
teams involved in the Conference Championship games:

• Six of the last eight times that a Conference Championship game
was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the game went OVER the total,
producing 46.9 PPG. Four of the last six non-No. 1 seeded hosts won
their games, both SU & ATS.

• There have been 14 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or
lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a
No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 8-6 SU & 8-5-1 ATS record
in those games.

Trends by Line Range
Lines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those
in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5
points since ’93. There have been seven home underdogs in that span.

Take a look at these other line specific trends:
• Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the
-3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 17-8
SU & 15-10 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had
been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the
4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored
in 2011 when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets
as a 4-point favorite, but the Patriots last year failed to cover in their
23-20 win as a 7-point favorite over the Ravens. Eight straight contests of this type had gone OVER the total prior to last year’s AFC
title game, which had a line of 49.

• Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have
seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors
are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the
line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS.
In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line
move in such cases.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

RATING 2: San Francisco

RATING 1: UNDER SF/ATL

RATING 2: New England

RATING 1: OVER BAL/NE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
3* (NFL) Atlanta Falcons +5
3* (NFL) New England Pats -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP

Conference Finals

SAN FRAN-3/47' (12-4-1)
ATLANTA+3/47' (14-3)
This is the 1st meeting between these staffs w/the last matchup in 2010 which ATL won 16-14 as a 7 pt HF. SF is 6-1 ATS in EST games under Harbaugh w/the only loss being at BAL on Thanksgiving which had the NFL change its sked policy prior to 2012. SF owns a 5-3 SU/ATS record on the road TY with +30 ypg (+5 TO's). ATL is now 8-1 SU/4-5 ATS at home for -17 ypg (+7 TO's). ATL is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS vs the common foes of NO/ARZ/NYG/DET/SEA for -13 ypg (+5 TO's) and a 28-18 avg score. SF earned a 5-2 SU/3-3-1 ATS mark against the same foes (+48 ypg, -1 TO's) with a 20-19 avg
score.
In Kaepernick's 4 road starts (2-2 SU/ATS) he's avg'd 226 ypg (59%) w/a 6-3 ratio. Matt Ryan at home TY has avg'd 267 ypg (65%) w/a 14-11 ratio. In NFL playoffs history, teams trailing by 20 or more points after 3Q's are 0-84.
Prior to Kaepernick, SF avg'd 366 ypg, 215 ypg pass and 23.7 ppg. Since he took over it's 356 ypg, 230 ypg pass and 26.3 ppg but he is much more aggressive with the ball as SF uses more of the Pistol off. Gore quietly logged his 2nd str year of 1,200 yds rush thanks to the best OL in the NFL TY that gave up 1 sk every 16 pass att's w/Kaepernick
vs 1 every 8.4 w/Smith. Crabtree has finally taken to being a #1 WR here and became the 1st WR w/1,000 yds recs/'03 while Davis has admitted he's not as comfortable w/a new QB at the helm. Losing Manningham (knee) created an unknown as it was a ? as to how much gas Moss has left. SF's OL was one of 3 to start every game together TY
(MIN/NYJ). SF's D ret'd all 11 st'rs from LY's #4 unit and they didn't miss a start until Justin Smith tore a tricep. He is the key cog in the system setting up the majority of Aldon Smith's 19.5 regular ssn sks to a stop unit that all'd 91 ypg (3.6) rush w/him in the lineup. The 49ers also have the best LB unit in the NFL w/Aldon, Willis and Bowman locked up longterm. They own the #5 pass D and their 6.1 ypa is 2nd best. SF has our #10 ST's TY despite Akers struggles.
ATL took a big risk replacing its OC/DC prior to the year but it has paid off very well. The offense now goes through Ryan instead of supporting him. Ryan put up career numbers across the board but faced just 3 teams that
finished w/a top 10 def avg 301 ypg (68%) w/a 10-3 ratio (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS). Ryan has helped White and Jones become ATL's 1st 1,100 yd rec tandem since 1998 with Gonzalez finishing 70 yds short of ATL's 1st 1,000 yd trio since 1995. ATL's run game hasn't had much if any impact TY as RB Turner has slowed down (3.6). ATL's OL has
been ultra-reliable w/4 of 5 OL playing 98.7% of the snaps TY as they had their 5th year of under 30 sks allowed.
While ATL's #24 def is a bit misleading (#5 def pts, #2 def ypp) they struggled for sacks (#27) and were mauled vs the run (4.8 ypc 29th). On the flip side, ATL's 14-20 ratio was the best in the NFL TY w/a very formidable secondary when healthy. Overall, DC Nolan has this def playing better than the sum of its parts on all levels. Despite a strong
year by Bosher (40.7 net, 37% punts inside 20), ATL has our #16 spec tms unit due to avg return units.
ATL faced a mobile QB twice a year in Newton but they still allowed 28 and 30 pts to CAR TY. Kaepernick has a better OL than CAR w/a faster burst and gets to play on turf here. SF has gone Over in 5 straight and ATL's D isn't that stout due to a soft sked. ATL also has big play weapons in the passing game w/the confidence for a shootout here.
FORECAST: OVER 49ERS/FALCONS RATING: 3*

BALTIMORE+9/51 (12-6)
NEW ENGLAND-9/51 (13-4)
This is the 6th meeting in 4 years and 3rd playoff matchup in that time with the L/3 games being decided by 3 or less. BAL was a dropped ball in the EZ/missed FG away from making the SB in LY's AFC Championship w/a 398-330 yd edge losing 23-20 as a 7 pt AD. BAL squeaked out a 31-30 win as a 2 pt HF in a very emotional game for them. They had a 503-396 yd edge hitting the game winning FG as time expired as NE blew a 13-0 lead. BAL pulled in a 2-2 SU/ATS record vs the common foes of HOU/DEN/IND for a -53 mark (-2 TO's) and a 30-23 avg deficit. NE tallied a 4-0 SU/ATS record over 435 yds/30 pts in 3 of 4 matchups. BAL is 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS on the road for 2012 w/a -24 ypg (+7 TO's) margin. NE is now 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS at home for 2012 avg over 420 ypg/35 ppg.
2012 was supposed to be the yr that Flacco, in a contract yr, broke out but the off had become quite predictable and Rice wasn't being utilized to his fullest (2 100 yd gms vs 6 LY). Flacco had a solid 15-5 ratio (8.3 ypa) at home but just 7-5 ratio (5.9 ypa) on the road. Rice does have a solid amount of rec's but that's coming off checkdowns. Boldin remains a solid #2 type w/Smith being a dangerous deep threat. BAL likes to use the 2 TE sets but they are much more conservative than NE in scheme. The OL is above avg (#20 sks, 4.7 ypc) which is a disappointment w/the talent.
2002 was the last time BAL wasn't in the top 10 for D for ydg but they remain top 10 in ypp. Inj's have hit every level here but they should have 9 of 11 opening day st'rs (CB Webb/LB McClain) here. The fact they had only given up a 14-13 ratio shows their uality of depth. BAL has our #1 ST's unit thanks to Jones work comb w/a great yr by Koch.
For the 4th time in his L5Y of full starts, Brady has finished with 24 more td's than int. NE's ability to effortlessly shift from the spread to 2 TE to a power running game (3 out of 4Y w/top 12 rush offense) sets them apart from other offenses. Ridley became the 1st 1,200 yd rusher for NE since Corey Dillon in 2004 and he hasn't fully grown into the
system yet. NE has the best 2 TE set in the NFL w/Gronkowski being a stronger receiving TE and Hernandez being more well rounded. Welker was the 1st player in NFL history w/5 100 rec seasons and Lloyd has been a strong, but not dominant, addition. The OL has been dinged a bit due to injuries to Mankins/Vollmer but it's still a physical
system oriented unit. NE's #25 def ranking is wildly misleading as they were 4th in yds per pt and tied Belichick's record w/41 takeaways. Wilfork continues to be the fulcrum of the DL with rookie Chandler Jones making a strong impression. The strength of the defense is versatility with Mayo being a rare 3 Dn LB. NE's secondary is a concern
but picking up Talib was a great move and McCourty has been stellar moving around. NE's #17 spec teams is due to a mediocre net avg by Mesko who doesn't get to boom it like other P's but NE has excellent coverage/return units.
This is the 1st conference finals rematch s/'92-'93 when DAL beat SF in back-to-back seasons. BAL is now looking for playoff revenge after TY's loss in wk 3. The public has jumped on the Ray Lewis bandwagon but that type of emotion is tough to carry into a 3rd straight week and 2nd straight road game. Much prefer to back a Belichick coached squad with Brady at the helm with a foe that he's seeing for the 3rd time in 12 months.
FORECAST: PATRIOTS by 16 RATING: 2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Harrison / Vegas Killers

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP

Atlanta Falcons +5

Atlanta Falcons ML +175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER'S
CONF CHAMPIONSHIP G.O.Y!

New England Patriots

I'm laying the points with New England in Sunday's AFC Championship. The Baltimore Ravens have made it to the conference title game, but they haven't been getting it done on the defensive side in the postseason, or for most of the regular season either. The Ravens' defense gave up 35 points, 30 first downs, and was on the field for 84 plays in last week's double-OT win over Denver. They allowed 25 first downs and 419 yards to Indianapolis, on a whopping 84 plays in the wildcard round. That's 168 offensive plays the Raven defense has faced the the last two weekends. And let's not forget they allowed 23, 34, and 31 points in three of their final four regular season contests. Even without Ron Gronkowski, the Patriots should have little trouble moving the football and scoring points. After all, the Pats went 4-1 in the five games Gronkowski missed during the season. The Pats average a league-best 427.9 total yards per game. They own the league's 4th best passing offense and they're an under-hyped 7th on the ground. New England has averaged 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, including last weekend's 41-28 win over Houston. Bill Belichick's troops are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points this season and they're 13-4 ATS in revenge of a same season loss under Belichick (lost 31-30 in Sept). Finally, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 33-12 ATS run if they outgain their opponents by an average of 40 to 100 yards, provided their current opponent owns a +40/-40 average margin per game, as long as they gained at least 400 yards in their previous outing. Look for New England to put Baltimore's season and Ray Lewis' playing career to bed with a big win and cover on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3 Stars: San Francisco, Over in SanFrancisco/Atlanta Game

2 Stars: New England, Over in Baltimore/NewEngland Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Pendergast

49ers -4 over FALCONS

Every gambling metric in this game screams "TAKE THE FALCONS!!" The Falcons are the biggest home underdog in the history of the conference championship round and in the history of number one overall seeds. Last week, Seattle (a team that smoked these same 49ers in Week 16 of the NFL regular season 42-13) was a three point underdog to the Falcons in Atlanta. Now, I'm guessing based largely on the images of Colin Kaepernick running shredding the Packers defense like they were a high school team last week, the Niners are four point favorites. A seven point swing!? Wow.
On the other hand, if you're even thinking about pushing "SEND" on an Atlanta wager, don't those images horrify you? Aren't you going to feel stupid when Kaepernick is in his fourth or fifth dead sprint for another explosive gain by the third quarter? When Frank Gore is pounding an Atlanta defense that gives up 4.7 yards per carry, won't you feel like a dope? You will.
Yes, Matt Ryan has won 85 percent of his home games since coming into the league in 2008, but I have a little theory that before I decide on whom to bet, I take one last look at a Google image of their head coach. If there are enough pictures of them to remind me of how beleaguered they are in big game situations, it's oppo time, kids!
I'll take Harbaugh over Smith, all day long.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Falcons 19




Ravens +8 1/2 over PATRIOTS

If you recall last week, the story about the spread on the Texans-Patriots game went like this:
"The Texans were only a three point road dog in December against the Patriots, and on the strength of a 42-14 Pats win, the line moved all the way to 9 points at kickoff. Wow, six points is a huge move based on one bad night for the Texans. That doesn't seem right!"
Well, it turns out it was spot on, to the point where a late field goal wound up blowing the cover for many Texans bettors who bought the spread up to 10 points (looks in mirror).
So now here come the Ravens, who were 3-point favorites in Baltimore during the regular season, and beat the Patriots on a last-second replacement referee aided field goal. So if you swing the home field around for this game by six points, and consider the two teams played virtually even during the regular season, then we would expect a 3 or maybe 3 1/2-point spread, right? Especially considering the Ravens have proven time and again to be, at worst, a formidable, crazy tough out for New England, no?
Well, the Ravens are an 8 1/2 point underdog, a 5 1/2 point swing from where the line "should" be. So we are right back to where we were with the Texans last weekend, with an underdog who has perceived value. Now, before you get scared away by the egg the Texans laid last weekend, understand this -- unlike the Texans, the Ravens don't fear the Patriots. The Ravens have balls.
In their last six match-ups, each team is 3-3 against the spread, with the Patriots covering by a total of five points and the Ravens covering by a total of 44 points. Tom Brady's quarterback rating is 14 points lower against the Ravens than it is versus the rest of the league. The Patriots have won 14 of 16 playoff games, but covered only 2 of their 10.
On top of that, this Ray Lewis retirement festival is starting to take on that "team of destiny" feel, and Joe Flacco's long-term contract is beginning to feel like a reality. I can't believe I'm doing this....

Prediction: Ravens 34, Patriots 31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preferred Picks

5* Baltimore
3* Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

3* Atlanta Falcons +5

3* New England Pats -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Conference Title Games

Last six times #1 seed played #2 seed in NFC title game, #1 seed won, but dogs covered four of last five NFC title games overall. Over last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this round. Atlanta is underdog at home despite 8-1 mark in Georgia Dome, with only loss in meaningless Week 17 game. Smith/Ryan combo got monkey off back with first playoff win last week; they have Falcons here for first time since 27-10 loss at Philly eight years ago. 49ers lost this game at home LY, but now have more mobile Kaepernick at QB-- he dominated game against Green Bay last week, running ball for 181 yards, passing for 263 after throwing an early pik-6. SF is 2-2 in domes this year, losing at Rams/Vikings, winning at Cardinals/Saints. Eight of last nine Niner games went over total, including last five in row; six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.

Since 1990, #4 seeds are 6-1 in conference title games, with '08 Cardinals only team that was at home; #4 seeds are 4-0 SU at #2 seeds in this round. Patriots (+3) led 13-0 after first quarter, lost 31-30 to Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 3, in flagfest (24 accepted penalties/218 yards) where Baltimore gained total of 503 yards, with Flacco averaging 9.8 ypa less than 24 hours after WR Smith (6 catches, 127 yards) lost his brother in motorcycle accident. Game ended on FG by rookie PK Tucker, who replaced Cundiff after he missed tying FG at end of LY's AFC title game, won 23-20 by Patriots (-7). Ravens playing with emotion trying to get leader Lewis into Super Bowl in his last year playing. Last time same two teams played in same stadium in consecutive conference title games was in '78-'79, when Oilers lost twice in Pittsburgh. 12 of last 15 Patriot games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL conference championship betting trends January 18, 2013 9:57 PM by Bob Christ

Special To GamingToday

For the 17th time since the merger, a home team in the conference title round has been installed as an underdog. This time it’s the top-seeded Falcons against the long-distance-traveling 49ers.

Perhaps strangely, these underdogs are only 8-8 ATS, but have paid off nicely for money-line bettors along the way by going 8-8 SU. That could be a wise option here.

This is also only the third time since the current seeding system was instituted in 1990 that a No. 1 seed was in this underdog spot: The host New York Giants routed the second-seeded Minnesota Vikings 41-0 in 2000 and in 1997 San Francisco was a 23-10 loser at home to defending champ Green Bay, which was a 2½-point choice.

Also, in a trend mentioned last week, since 2007 teams are now 10-2 ATS as a playoff underdog of 8-plus points and 8-4 straight up. Included was Baltimore’s stunner in Denver last week, 38-35 in OT, as a 9-point ’dog.

Can the Ravens do it again this week at New England?

The Patriots of all teams should know. In their first Super season, in 2001, they beat Pittsburgh in the AFC title game as a 10-point underdog and then downed the 14-point-favorite Rams in the Super Bowl.

And, good luck figuring out the OVER/UNDERS this week. In the wild-card round, each of the four UNDERS were winners by at least 8 points. In the divisional round, all four OVERS were good by at least 10. In fact, if you played OVER for the Grand Salami (185 points), you had the victory clinched well before Sunday’s late game.

Maybe this will help: OVERS are 15-7 in this round since 2001.

Now for a closer look at this week’s conference clashes:



PRO FOOTBALL NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS – SUNDAY, JAN. 20

49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3)

Time: Noon PST

Line: 49ers -3½ (49)

Weather: Indoors

Facts: Colin Kaepernick’s 181 rushing yards last week for SF were more than Peyton Manning has had the past decade.

• Atlanta averages 3.7 yards a run and yields 4.8. That differential of minus 1.1 yards is the third worst for a Final Four team in the Super Bowl era. In 1960, however, the Eagles were champs despite a negative 1.7 margin (3.2/4.9).

• The host Falcons squandered a 20-point lead to Seattle last week, but won 30-28 on a late FG. Had Atlanta lost, it would have matched the biggest collapse by a home playoff team. In the 1957 game to decide the Western Conference title, SF blew a 27-7 lead in a 31-27 loss to Detroit.

• The 49ers, who lost in this round last year, are trying to become the 10th team since the merger to lose in a conference final one year and win the crown the next, but only the second to do so on the road (Rams 1979).

Analysis: The 49ers mauled Green Bay 45-31 last week with four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including back-to-back 93-yard marches late, gaining 323 rushing along the way. It was the weekend’s most dominating performance.

They should be fueled this week going 6-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons playing in the Eastern time zone (the other three West Coast teams in that span are a cumulative 8-16 SU and 9-14-1 ATS).

Atlanta, meanwhile, had no answer for stopping rookie QB Russell Wilson last week when he led the Seahawks’ charge. But what might work in the Falcons’ favor is that they finally broke through for their first playoff victory in Mike Smith-Matt Ryan regime. And since they also enter here as an underdog, perhaps some of the pressure will be lifted. Thus…

Forecast: Falcons 28, 49ers 24



PRO FOOTBALL AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4)

Time: 3:30 p.m. PST

Line: Patriots -8 (51)

Weather: Low 30s; wind 15-17 mph

Facts: In the five-season John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco era, this marks their ninth road playoff adventure (4-4 SU/5-3 ATS) with the Ravens. Conversely, this is the 14th postseason home outing for the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady bunch, where they are 11-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS).

• Baltimore beat Denver last week despite yielding a kickoff and punt return score. The last team to survive two such TDs and win was Baltimore in 2011, when defeating the Jets 34-17.

• Enemy QBs have fumbled a league-high 19 times vs. New England this season, losing 10. Baltimore’s numbers are at 12/6, including two fumbles last week by Peyton Manning (losing one), matching his total for the season.

• Baltimore’s offense was ranked 16th and its defense 17th this season. The last Super team to be out of the top 15 in both categories was NE in 2001 (19/24).

• The Ravens’ defense has been on the field 87 plays in each of the past two weeks. That 174 total is the most over a two-week span for anyone the past five seasons.

Analysis: The Ravens’ 31-30 victory over the Patriots in Week 3, the only time the past 27 games NE wasn’t a favorite (+2½), wasn’t a fluke. Baltimore had four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including two of 92, which tied for the league high this season.

On the other hand, one of the Patriots’ scores was a 6-yard drive, the only time this season NE’s offense was set up inside the 10. Plus, the Patriots will be without one of Brady’s favorite targets, TE Rob Gronkowski – Or “Gonk,” as Boston’s mayor says. He is out with a broken arm. That’s a big deal.

The Ravens seem to have a bottomless pit of adrenaline to be capable of pulling another upset. At least enough to beat the line, anyway.

Forecast: Patriots 31, Ravens 30

Last week: 1-3 ATS; 3-1 SU

Season ATS: 129-124-6 (.510).

Season SU: 154-109-1 (.586)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

SUNDAY

NFC championship

San Francisco 49ers -3½ at Atlanta Falcons (48½): This game opened at -3 and I agree with the move. Atlanta has been lucky all season long, winning ugly with the exception of blowing out the Giants on Dec. 16. These two teams did not play in the regular season. If the time out was not called the 49ers would be meeting the Seahawks for the third time. If the 49ers could travel to New England and get the win as they did back in October they will win this one with their ice water running QB. 49ERS.

AFC championship

Baltimore Ravens +9½ at New England Patriots (51): How the Ravens beat the Broncos is still a mystery to me, but they did. The Pats beat them last year in this same spot 23-20. The Ravens did beat the Pats in Baltimore this year 31-30. No matter what, we must take the points in a high scoring game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. RAVENS/OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

Last week: 0-3-1.

NFC

49ers -3½ at Falcons: Atlanta is the top seed, at home and a sizable underdog. General thought is if Robert Wilson gave the Atlanta defense so much trouble, imagine what Colin Kaepernick would do. OK, but this is the Georgia Dome and Matt Ryan has a great record there. ATLANTA.

AFC

Ravens +9½ at Patriots: An even more curious number than the NFC title game. I would think this line will come down a bit during the week. At 9½ and judging upon recent history, including the one point Ravens win at Baltimore, it just seems like too many points. Buy now if you like the dog. BALTIMORE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

49ers -3½ at Falcons (48.5): San Francisco was, in many respects, more impressive in its win than were the Falcons. The 49ers did have to come from behind in its win over Green Bay, falling behind 7-0 and 14-7 before taking a 24-21 halftime lead. After the Packers tied the game in the middle of the third quarter at 24, the Niners then scored 21 straight points in what turned out to be a 45-31 win.

The Falcons had a dominant first half in their win over Seattle, building a 20-0 lead at the half which was then 27-7 into the fourth quarter. But then Seattle did what it had been doing all season and they rallied to take a 28-27 lead with a half minute remaining. Atlanta then dramatically moved downfield and got the game winning FG in a 30-28 win.

The win ended all that talk about how these Falcons could not win a playoff game, and, as it turned out, it did not come easy. As such the Falcons are rare home underdogs in a Conference Championship game. Since 1990 this will be just the eighth time that a team has been a home underdog in the game that decides who will go to the Super Bowl. The line is similar to the previous seven games that saw the home team close from 2.5 to 3.5 point underdogs.

Atlanta has won the last four meetings against the 49ers dating back to 2004. The last two wins have come with Smith as coach and Matt Ryan at QB but both were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011 Atlanta has the better offensive stats but the edges are very slim.

San Francisco has a huge edge in total defense (No. 3 versus 24) point the game is considerably narrower when looking at points allowed (No. 1 versus No. 5 and an edge for the Niners of just 1.6 points per game). The Falcons fared much better in their revenge matchup, shutting out the Giants 34-0 in a late season game that had more practical implications and a sense of urgency for the then 8-5 Giants than for the 11-2 Falcons who were all but certain to lock up the No. 1 NFC seed at the time.

The Falcons won and covered both games in which they were underdogs this season, at San Diego in week three and at Philadelphia in midseason. They are 8-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming in a meaningless game in Week 17. Expect a much more focused effort this week if Atlanta gets out in front. An upset is clearly possible but getting at least a FG is attractive. FALCONS.

Ravens +9½ at Patriots (51): This should be yet another physical contest between teams that know each other very well. The Pats will be without star TE Rob Gronkowski as he reinjured his forearm and is out for the balance of the Playoffs. This will be Baltimore’s twelfth playoff game since 2008. The Ravens are 7-4 both SU and ATS in the prior 11, including 5-4 on the road. The Pats have played just six Playoff games in the same stretch, going 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS in those games.

New England has won 4 of the last five meetings with the Ravens, including the win in last season’s Conference Championship game. The four wins, all since 2007, have been by three, six, three and three points. The lone loss came at home in the 2010 playoffs when Baltimore won handily 33-14, and, as noted earlier, ended a streak of 11 straight home Playoff wins by New England that dated back to 1996, the last 8 of which were in the Belichick/Brady era that dates back to 2001.

New England has the better offense, ranking first in the NFL in both yards per game and points scored. Baltimore was just average in total offense (16) but did rank tenth in points scored. New England ranked number 25 in total defense but 9 in points allowed. The Ravens were 17 in total defense but improved to 12 in points allowed.

Both offenses excel at protecting the football. Each lost just 16 turnovers during the regular season. While Baltimore’s defense forced 25 turnovers the Pats were even better, creating 41 takeaways, an average of one per game more than the usually aggressive Ravens. After announcing his retirement at the conclusion of their season, the Ravens future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis has helped his team win twice in these playoffs, including the huge upset in Denver.

Recent history of these teams against each other, and the overall playoffs experience of the underdog Ravens, suggest that this will be another competitive game. RAVENS.

Record

Last Week

1-2-1

NFL

121-116-2

playoffs

1-2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* Las Vegas Insider "Total GOY"
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: OVER

Reason: Form held in the divisional round of the NFC, as the top-seeded Falcons and 2nd-seeded 49ers advanced to the championship game. However, the teams took totally different paths. The Falcons dominated the first half (led 20-0) and took a 27-7 lead into the fourth quarter vs the Seahawks, before ‘coughing up’ the lead in the final 30 seconds. Amazingly, ”Matty Ice” was just that, completing back-to-back passes of 22 and 19 yards to set up Matt Bryant’s game-winning 49-yard FG. As for the 49ers, they broke open a close game (tied 24-all in the early third quarter) in the second half, as Colin Kaepernick rushed for a quarterback-record 181 yards (regular or postseason) while adding two rushing TDs plus overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 more yards with two TD strikes. Kaepernick had a 98.7 QB rating while going 6-2 as a starter since taking over for Alex Smith but the jury was still out. That is until last weekend, as his overall performance in San Fran’s 45-31 divisional round victory over Green Bay seemingly makes San Francisco a more dangerous opponent than it was a year ago. The Falcons finally won that first p[alyoff game of the Smith/Ryan era and one can’t ignore that Atlanta has now earned the NFC’s top seed in TWO of the last three seasons. "Our goal is not to win one playoff game," said Matt Ryan, who was 24 of 35 for 250 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Seahawks. "Our goals are still in front of us. We still have two more games to go. That's the mindset I have. That's the mindset this team has." Atlanta’s D is much better than Green Bay’s but mobile, athletic and versatile QBs have given the Falcons trouble this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs and no picks while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. Then, in last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs and an INT while running for 60 yards and a score on just seven carries. "These young guys, they are athletic and they can run," DC Mike Nolan said. "That creates a whole new set of problems." Atlanta surrendered 5.90 yards per play this season (29th in the league) and allowed the Seahawks to average a whopping 7.44 in the divisional round. As for San Francisco’s defense, it ranked 4th in total yards (308.2 YPG) last season and 1st in points allowed (14.3 per). This year’s team finished 3rd in yards allowed (294.4 per) and about a FG higher in points allowed at 17.1 PPG. That said, one can’t ignore that the 49ers allowed 34 points at New England in Week 15, 42 points up in Seattle in Week 16 and 31 points last Saturday to the 49ers in that 14-point win. Matt Ryan was far from perfect last weekend but after going 0-3 in his previous postseason games (194.7 YPG with three TDs, four INTs, 10 sacks and a 71.2 QB rating), his performance last Sunday seemed almost Montana-like in comparison. Ryan has arguably the NFL’s best three-man receiving corps in WRs White (100 / 13.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Jones (54 / 17.8 YPC / 8 TDs) plus future Hall of fame TE Gonzalez (80 / 10.9 YPC / 7 TDs). Ryan’s faced the 49ers twice before, completing 64.0 percent of his passes for 602 yards with three TDs and three INTs while going 2-0 against them (note: both meetings were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011). Meanwhile, the 49ers showcased an offense last weekend which gained 29 FDs and 579 total yards. The 49ers ran for 323 yards on 7.5 YPC (Gore had a ‘quiet’ 119 yards on 23 yards in support of Kaepernick) plus added 256 yards passing. In the perfect conditions of the Georgia Dome, this game has all the makings of a shoot-out and that’s EXACTLY what I expect. Go over!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rickjs Handicapping Picks Sunday College Hoops


1 Unit Play
815 Clemson +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS---ROBERT HENZIE
5* Atlanta Falcons+3
5* New England Patriots-10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play #301 Take San Francisco/Atlanta UNDER 49 (Sunday @ 3pm est)

4-Unit Play #303 Take Baltimore/New England UNDER 51.5 (Saturday @ 6:30pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #303 Baltimore (+8.5) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 51.5 Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gill Alexander

3* GOW - Baltimore+9

2* San Francisco-4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFC Championship Betting Preview: 49ers at Falcons

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 48)

The San Francisco 49ers are returning to the NFC championship game for the second time in as many years, but this time the offense is significantly different. Colin Kaepernick put together one of the most dynamic performances for a quarterback in playoff history to help topple Green Bay on Saturday in the divisional round and will be looking to repeat the effort when the 49ers visit the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

The Falcons got a strong performance of their own from quarterback Matt Ryan in the divisional round but will be home underdogs against San Francisco after squandering a big lead and needing a late field goal to survive the Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta is 8-1 at home, including the playoff victory, but has serious questions about its defense after surrendering 21 fourth-quarter points in the divisional win. Kaepernick has proven he is equally comfortable throwing the ball and pulling it down to run - a combination Atlanta struggled against with Russell Wilson last weekend.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 3.5-point road favorites has have been bet up as high as -4. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (12-4-1, 10-7 ATS): Kaepernick faced the questions that any first-time starter faces going into his first playoff game and answered every one against the Packers. After throwing an interception on his first series, Kaepernick set a playoff record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 181 and passed for 276, totaling four touchdowns along the way. The 25-year-old made a strong connection with wide receiver Michael Crabtree and helped open things up on the ground for Frank Gore, who rushed for over 100 yards (119) for the first time since Week 7. Defensively, San Francisco finished third in the NFL during the regular season but showed some cracks in the first half against Aaron Rodgers and company in the divisional round. Defensive tackle Justin Smith is dealing with a torn triceps and the 49ers struggled at times to get pressure on Rodgers.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (14-3, 9-7-1 ATS): Ryan does not have the same ability to escape the pocket that Rodgers has and will need more from his offensive line against the San Francisco pass rush. Ryan finally proved he could win a playoff game last weekend, throwing three touchdown passes and driving Atlanta for the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Overlooked is the fact that the Falcons’ defense put Ryan in the position to come back by breaking down in the fourth quarter. Ranked 24th in the regular season, Atlanta’s defense allowed Wilson to pass for 385 yards and rush for another 60 while squandering a 20-point lead. Defensive end John Abraham, who will be one of the keys to keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, tweaked his ankle against the Seahawks and is listed as questionable for this week, though the Falcons expect him to play. Atlanta has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks like Wilson and Cam Newton, who used a similar read-option offense to put up 58 points in two regular-season games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* 49ers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.
* Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers (1995) and the Falcons (1999) have gone a combined 32 years without a Super Bowl appearance.

2. The teams have not met since the 2010 regular season, when Ryan led a game-winning drive for a field goal with two seconds left in a 16-14 triumph. Atlanta has taken four straight in the series.

3. San Francisco LT Joe Staley suffered a bruised arm in the divisional round and is listed as probable for Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AFC Championship Betting Preview: Ravens at Patriots

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8, 51)

The Baltimore Ravens took down one future Hall of Fame quarterback on the road last week and will to repeat that feat when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC championship game. It will be a rematch of last season's conference title game, when the Patriots eked out a 23-20 victory after Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying 32-yard field goal in the final seconds. The teams have become increasingly familiar with one another, with Sunday's meeting marking the sixth time they will square off in four seasons.

The last three matchups have been decided by a total of seven points, including the Ravens' 31-30 victory in Baltimore in Week 3. The AFC North-champion Ravens stifled Indianapolis 24-9 before stunning Peyton Manning and the top-seeded Denver Broncos 38-35 in overtime to prolong linebacker Ray Lewis' final season and reach their third title game in five seasons. No. 2 seed New England pulled away in the second half for a 41-28 victory over Houston but lost star tight end Rob Gronkowski in the process.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Patriots opened as high as -9.5 and was bet up to -10.5 at some markets. However, action is coming in on the Ravens and has dropped the spread as low as 7.5. The total has moved from 51 to 51.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to blow west at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (12-6, 8-9-1 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco raised more than a few eyebrows when he said earlier in the season that not only does he consider himself a top-five quarterback, but he feels he's "the best." No one's laughing now. Flacco has been sensational in the two playoff victories, throwing for 613 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He also saved Baltimore's season last week by connecting with Jacoby Jones on a 70-yard scoring strike with 31 seconds left to send the game into overtime. Flacco's the only QB in league history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons and has torched the Patriots for 973 yards with seven TDs vs. two interceptions in the last three games. Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards and a score last week and speedster Torrey Smith had TD receptions of 59 and 32 yards. He burned the Patriots for a pair of scoring passes earlier this season. Lewis has 32 tackles in the playoff games after returning from a 10-game injury absence, but this is not a typical Ravens defense. Last week's game marked the highest point total ever allowed by Baltimore in the postseason.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4, 10-7 ATS): New England amassed a league-high 557 points during the regular season and had its sixth 40-point game last week. Gronkowski re-injured his broken forearm early in last week's victory, depriving Brady of a target that has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his first 43 NFL games. Still, Brady threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns to surpass Joe Montana for the most career postseason victories with 17. Brady had 335 yards and a scoring pass in Week 3, but he's had his struggles against the Ravens. He was intercepted twice in last season's AFC title game and failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in 36 games. New England unveiled another weapon on offense last week in running back Shane Vereen, who caught a pair of scoring passes and rushed for another TD while registering 124 total yards. TE Aaron Hernandez did not play in the early-season matchup and will provide a matchup issue for Baltimore's aging linebacking corps. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has helped solidify an improving defense that limited five of the final six regular-season opponents to under 20 points.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New England.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New England owns a 14-3 home playoff record, the best mark in history for any team with a minimum of 10 games.

2. Baltimore handed New England one of those postseason home defeats with a 33-14 rout on Jan. 10, 2010.

3. Brady has thrown 41 career playoff touchdowns, trailing only Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Indiana at Northwestern

The Hoosiers look to take advantage of a Northwestern team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games. Indiana is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12). Here are all of today's games.


SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 809-810: Indiana at Northwestern (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 77.940; Northwestern 62.028
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 16; 142
Vegas Line: Indiana by 12; 137
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12); Over


Game 811-812: Drake at Northern Iowa (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 56.419; Northern Iowa 67.243
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11; 133
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 10; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-10); Under


Game 813-814: Illinois State at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 58.835; Southern Illinois 53.211
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 1 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-1 1/2); Under


Game 815-816: Clemson at NC State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 63.022; NC State 74.472
Dunkel Line: NC State by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: NC State by 9 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-9 1/2); Over


Game 817-818: Iona at Rider (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 60.263; Rider 57.898
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+4)


Game 819-820: Furman at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 43.707; NC-Greensboro 50.301
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 8
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

LA Lakers at Toronto

The Raptors look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. Toronto is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 801-802: LA Lakers at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.022; Toronto 119.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); Under


Game 803-804: Dallas at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.527; Orlando 116.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 805-806: Boston at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.633; Detroit 115.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1 1/2); Over


Game 807-808: Oklahoma City at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 126.718; Denver 123.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/20/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 2154-690 (.757)
ATS: 914-949 (.491)
ATS Vary Units: 2965-3152 (.485)
Over/Under: 236-242 (.494)
Over/Under Vary Units: 275-314 (.467)

Atlantic Coast Conference
NC STATE 72, Clemson 59

Big Ten Conference
Indiana 74, NORTHWESTERN 66

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
RIDER 78, Iona 77

Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State 73, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 69
NORTHERN IOWA 74, Drake 65

Patriot League
ARMY 68, Navy 57

Southern Conference
UNC GREENSBORO 74, Furman 68

Non-Conference
Loyola (Chicago) 66, CHICAGO STATE 58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/20/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 389-188 (.674)
ATS: 291-298 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 844-799 (.514)
Over/Under: 304-285 (.516)
Over/Under Vary Units: 472-428 (.524)

L.A. Lakers vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ORLANDO 100, Dallas 99
Boston 92, DETROIT 91
Oklahoma City 107, DENVER 105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

01/20/13 Predictions

Season: 4-4 (.500)

Philadelphia vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CALGARY 3, San Jose 2
Dallas vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VANCOUVER 3, Edmonton 2
PHOENIX 3, Chicago 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Chicago at Phoenix

The Coyotes look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-7 in the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Phoenix is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+100). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Buffalo (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.205; Buffalo 11.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over


Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.171; NY Rangers 12.703
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-115); Under


Game 55-56: San Jose at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.874; Calgary 10.254
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-110); Over


Game 57-58: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.702; Minnesota 11.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Under


Game 59-60: Edmonton at Vancouver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.442; Vancouver 10.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135); Over


Game 61-62: Chicago at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.753; Phoenix 12.851
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+100); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 968- 721 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner SUN Illinois State -1 TY Sat Cal Ply Slo + 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Phoenix Coyotes +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam martin

20* 49ers
25* patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Sports Connection

NHL

Jan 20 10:05 PM STRAIGHT BET
[61] CHI BLACKHAWKS -120


The Blackhawks are the ONLY ROAD FAVORITE in the NHL today (@Phoenix) for good reason in our opinion.

The Hawks looked real good yesterday afternoon (3 ET) in Los Angeles....
...while Phoenix also played on the road (@ 8 ET) ...in Dallas -and lost.

Hawks working for a good start tothe season because they play very few home games in the first quarter of the shortened season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDREW LANGE

10* 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Atlanta +10 & Patriots -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

Sunday, January 20 *EARLY*- TORONTO (+5) by 8 over LA Lakers

TORONTO 107 - LA Lakers 99—L.A. was finally hinting at putting
things together prior to visit by Heat last Thursday night, winning and covering
handily at home earlier in week vs. Cavs and Bucks. And Pau Gasol is likely to
have returned to active duty in that matchup vs. Miami. But Gasol has been the
one Laker who has seemed out of place (at the high post) in the Mike D’Antoni
offense, and on the road it’s been a tough slog for the Lake Show, dropping 10
of first 16 spread decisions as a visitor. Meanwhile, Toronto has been holding
its own minus high-scoring F Andrea Bargnani, who has been shelved by an
elbow problem since mid-December. But Raptors had nonetheless won in 10 of
last 15 SU prior to Friday’s game at Philly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ER SPORTS

20* Playmaker: New England Over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nfl picks pro

sf 49ers-4
baltimore/patriots under 51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott rickenbach

10* total of year sf 49ers/falcons under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

1:05PM Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors
[802] Toronto Raptors +5 -110

2:00PM Furman vs NC Greensboro
[820] NC Greensboro -8 -110

6:30PM Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
[303] Baltimore Ravens +8 -108

10:05PM Chicago Blackhawks vs Phoenix Coyotes
[61] UNDER 5.5 -140

GOODFELLAS

3:00PM San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
[301] UNDER 48.5 -107

8:00PM Illinois State vs Southern Illinois
[813] Illinois State -1.5 -110

9:05PM Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks
[60] Vancouver Canucks -155

PJ

AUSTRALIAN OPEN- ATP

7:00PM Jeremy Chardy vs Andreas Seppi
[202] Andreas Seppi -135

AUSTRALIAN OPEN- WTA

7:00PM Caroline Wozniacki vs Svetlana Kuznetsova
[426] Svetlana Kuznetsova +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Million Dollar Parlay - Atlanta & New England

Pay After You Win Program - Northwestern

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB CLEMSON at NC STATE

Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (NC STATE) after scoring 55 points or less against opponent after scoring 60 points or less 3 straight games.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )

CBB ILLINOIS ST at S ILLINOIS

Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (S ILLINOIS) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
148-88 since 1997. ( 62.7% 55.2 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% 0.2 units )

CBB CLEMSON at NC STATE

Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (NC STATE) good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 SCORE

(1:00) Indiana 78 - NORTHWESTERN 65 (BIG10)
(3:00) NORTHERN IOWA 66 - Drake 49 (ESPNU)
(3:00) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 81 - Illinois State 76
(6:00) NO CAROLINA STATE 80 - Clemson 60 (ESPNU)

BEST BETS: NORTHERN IOWA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

NBA

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 SCORE

(1:05) TORONTO RAPTORS 105 - LA Lakers 100
(6:05) Dallas Mavericks 92 - ORLANDO MAGIC 89
(7:35) Boston Celtics 94 - DETROIT PISTONS 90
(8:05) Oklahoma City Thunder 117 - DENVER 110

BEST BETS: OKLAHOMA CITY (4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Indiana* over Northwestern by 26
If they beat Illinois on Thursday, then this probably will go worse for Northwestern
than it already figured to go.
INDIANA, 90-64.

Northern Iowa* over Drake by 15
Drake entered the week 1-4 SU in Missouri Valley play, all four losses by 10 points or
more. UNI likes that Drake has been a weak rebounding team.

Illinois State over Southern Illinois* by 2
What a joke Illinois State has become. They entered the week 0-5 SU in Missouri
Valley play, all five in a row, and will be coming here from Wichita State, Their bench
scored only 5 points in a home loss to Drake last Saturday!
ILLINOIS STATE, 66-64.

North Carolina State* over Clemson by 15
Nothing on Clemson’s 2012-13 resume suggests that they should hang close in this
match-up. Wolfpack have revenge for an OT road loss in late February last season and
will have had a buffer game at Maryland in between the Duke court-storming win
(not an upset! How is that an upset?!) and this.
NO. CAROLINA STATE, 79-64.

NBA

***BEST BET
*Toronto over Los Angeles Lakers by 8
Note the early start time. The Raptors are the only team in the league that has a consistent early Sunday starting time – and it gives them an edge. They’ve covered four of
the past five times in these instances, including beating Minnesota by 19, Orlando by
11 and Houston by seven as a ‘dog. Many NBA players live an active late night
lifestyle, especially if they didn’t have a game on Saturday night which the visiting
Lakers didn’t. So the Raptors’ familiarity in this role gives them a big edge. Toronto
also is 4-2 ATS as a home ‘dog this season.
TORONTO 106-98.

Dallas over *Orlando by 1
Glen Davis might be the unsung MVP in the league since the Magic can’t seem to win
without him dropping the first 11 games he missed. Orlando was 9-3 ATS in its last
12 matchups versus Western Conference foes, though.
DALLAS 97-96.

*Detroit over Boston by 1
The Celtics take to the road for the first time in two weeks. Boston has covered just
35 percent of its away matchups this season.
DETROIT 99-98.

*Denver over Oklahoma City by 2
The teams just faced each other five days ago. The Nuggets were 10-5 ATS in their
first 15 games at Pepsi Center. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook draw the attention, but the Thunder is going to need another big performance from Serge Ibaka,
who was second in the league in blocked shots per game and No. 3 in field goal percentage, to keep Denver in check on the boards.
DENVER 107-105.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at DENVER

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
107-57 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.2% 44.3 units )
11-3 this year. ( 78.6% 7.7 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at DENVER

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.
72-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.9% 39.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

NBA LA LAKERS at TORONTO

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 good rebounding team - giving up <=11 off. rebounds/game on the season, on Sunday games.
183-108 since 1997. ( 62.9% 64.2 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DENVER MONEY

1* Vancouver Canucks -1.5 +190

I thought the Canucks came out flat yesterday and I expect them to rebound at home today against Edmonton. The Oilers are making their season debut today and I just think they are getting a Vancouver on a bad night after the Canucks got embarrassed at home by the Anaheim Ducks last night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Ravens +8
50* NC State -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KELSO NFL Championship Playoff Game Of Year
100 Units
Ravens (+7.5) over Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso


10 Units
Falcons (+4) over 49ers

ATLANTA FALCONS (14-3) +4 over San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) Prediction: Falcons by 3-4 Weather: Played indoors at the Georgia Dome Starting Time: 3:05 TV: FOX Comments: --For the record the Atlanta Falcons are the biggest home underdog since the playoffs expanded to 10 teams in 1978 and are the biggest home underdog in any game in conference championship history. The public has bet the San Francisco 49ers as if this game had already been played and the only reason Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2Flatest-promo%2F%3Fcmpid%3D1560_1308)s have not raised the number off the -4 is the fact they don’t want to make it 4 ½ and then get “middled” since the game opened with the 49ers a 3-point favorite. My figures made the game a pick’em which means a case can be made for both sides to win it straight up. The one edge Atlanta has is the home field and I think that will make the difference in this contest between two teams with contrasting offensive styles of play—Atlanta with its explosive passing game (279.9 yards per game) and the 49ers go with their trademark running game (165.5 yards per game). The +4 is a big edge for a team rated dead-even, and I will take it.


NFL Championship Playoff Game Of Year
100 Units
Ravens (+7½) over Patriots

American Football Conference Conference Championship Game of the Year 100 Units Baltimore Ravens (12-6) +7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4) Prediction: Ravens by 3-4 Weather: The AccuWeather forecast for the game: Gusty winds and brutal cold will arrive just in time for the Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots AFC Championship game on Sunday. A cold front will move through Foxboro, Mass., on Sunday afternoon, giving way to strong winds and falling temperatures. The AccuWeather predicted temperature for kickoff is 33 degrees F, with sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph. According to Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuel the wind-chill factor will make temperatures for the kickoff in the lower 20s. Starting Time: 6:35 TV: CBS Comments: A brief history of the series: Baltimore and New England met in the third week of the season, in Baltimore, and the Ravens won, 31-30, as a 3-point favorite. In that game, the Ravens out-yarded the Patriots 503 to 396. New England and Baltimore met in the AFC championship game last season, in Foxborough, and the Patriots won, 23-20, as a 7-point favorite. Five of the last six meetings between the Ravens and Patriots have been decided by 6 or fewer points. There is no dispute on my part New England should be the favorite in this game, but not by the inflated public number of -7 ½, down from -9 at the open. This is a fierce rivalry and one can make a strong case for either to win the game straight up, making the Ravens almost an automatic play. New England obviously is a tough team to beat at home and stands 4-0 there in its last AFC championship games but hidden in the numbers is the fact that while the Patriots are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 playoff games they are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10. Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2Flatest-promo%2F%3Fcmpid%3D1560_1308)s know the public believes New England is invincible at home and they make it pay a premium price of at least a point or two to back the Patriots and that again makes the ‘dog the choice in this one. Now factor into the equation the current performance profile of much-maligned Ravens Joe Flacco who is playing lights out right now. When new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell took over the play-calling in Week 15 he turned Flacco lose, letting him anytime he wished run the no-huddle offense—something the quarterback had begged for three seasons to do. Since Flacco was given that option, he has thrown nine touchdown passes with just one interception. It also is of note he has won five playoff road games, tying him with Peyton Manning as the only two quarterbacks in post-season history to do this. The figures say the Ravens, who are 8-5 in road playoff games, are ready to play one of their best games and that should get them the cover and the outright win.


10 Units
49ers/Falcons OVER 48½ Points

ATLANTA FALCONS-San Francisco 49ers over 48 ½ Points Prediction: 51 or more points will be scored Comments: Both teams are going to get their points in this one and those who have been brain-washed to believe San Francisco does it with defense have missed the fact eight of the last 49ers games have gone over, including the last five.


5 Units
Side/Total Parlay
Falcons (+4) over 49ers
49ers/Falcons OVER 48½ Points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA TOTALS

Free Play - 810 Northwestern +12

Free Play - Lakers/Raptors UNDER 204.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Bagman

4000 units Patriots -7½ over Ravens Too much offense for this defense and I'm a little impressed with this Patriots defense. I think this is going to be an easy Pats victory as the Ray Lewis era comes to an end in an ugly way.

2000 units Falcons +4½ over 49ers If Pete Carroll doesn't play prevent for the last 30 seconds of the game, this game is in San Fran this weekend. I don't know if the zone read will work against the Falcons defense. They are pretty disciplined. Offensively the Falcon receivers and tight ends are a mismatch size wise for the 49ers defense. These guys are big and aggressive and I'm pretty sure they are going to have their way with the 49ers corners. I'll take the 4.5 points at home as the Niners are much better in San Fran than they are on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Football Lock Club

4 units Atlanta +4
3 units New England -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Valley Sports

3* Baltimore +9
3* Baltimore/New England Over 51½
3* Atlanta +4½
3* Atlanta Over 49

Sunday 01-20-2012
[808] Denver(+1.5 or better)Over Oklahoma City --3 Stars
[806] Detroit/Boston(Over 185 or better) --3 Stars

NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS


Sunday 01-20-2012
[812] Northern Iowa(-10 or better)Over Drake --3 Stars
[817] Iona(-4 or better)Over Rider --2 Stars

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Key Trends Report
Game Date: Sun. Jan 20, 2013

Trends From Sun. Sep 8, 1985 To Sun. Jan 20, 2013


San Francisco 49'ers by 4.0 at Atlanta Falcons O/U 48.5 Recommend

San Francisco 49'ers are 172-144-9 ATS As Favorite (All Lines) San Francisco 49'ers
San Francisco 49'ers are 0-3-0 O/U After 5 Overs (All Lines) Under
San Francisco 49'ers are 3-9-1 O/U vs. Atlanta (3 -> 6.5) Under
Atlanta Falcons are 16-30-1 ATS As Home Dog (3 -> 6.5) San Francisco 49'ers
Atlanta Falcons are 27-17-2 O/U As Home Dog (3 -> 6.5) Over
Atlanta Falcons are 84-108-9 ATS After 1 Wins (All Lines) San Francisco 49'ers
Atlanta Falcons are 85-111-4 O/U After 1 Wins (All Lines) Under
Atlanta Falcons are 40-58-3 O/U After 1 Wins (3 -> 6.5) Under
Atlanta Falcons are 11-20-2 ATS After 2 ATS Loss (3 -> 6.5) San Francisco 49'ers
Atlanta Falcons are 4-10-0 ATS Postseason Games (All Lines) San Francisco 49'ers
Atlanta Falcons are 3-9-1 O/U vs. San Francisco (3 -> 6.5) Under


at New England Patriots by 9.0 Baltimore Ravens O/U 51.5 Recommend

New England Patriots are 65-46-3 ATS After 2 ATS Wins (All Lines) New England Patriots
New England Patriots are 123-98-7 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines) New England Patriots
New England Patriots are 25-15-0 O/U After 1 Overs (7 -> 9.5) Over
New England Patriots are 0-5-0 ATS After 14 As Fav (All Lines) Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots are 12-21-1 O/U Postseason Games (All Lines) Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSA
20* NFL Atlanta +5
20* NFL New England -7½
20* NCAAB Indiana -11
10* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
10* NFL New England UNDER 52½
10* NBA Boston -1½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsCashSystem extra picks for 1/20

Clemson +10 over North Carolina State

Oklahoma City Thunder -1 over the Denver Nuggets

New England Patriots -8 over the Baltimore Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner
1500* Atlanta Over 49
100* Baltimore +8
50* NC State -9½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

January 20, 2013 - 3:00 PM NFL San Francisco vs. Atlanta **NEED TO HIT IMMEDIATELY** Burns' *10* NFL MAIN EVENT! ~ VERY LIMITED SPECIAL TIME OFFER! sportsinteraction @ 3.5 -110 Atlanta

January 20, 2013 - 3:00 PM NFL San Francisco vs. Atlanta **HIT THIS A.S.A.P!** Burns' Playoff O/U BEST IN CLASS! ~ THIS IS THE BIG ONE! sportsinteraction @ Under 49 -110

January 20, 2013 - 6:30 PM NFL Baltimore vs. New England **NEED TO HIT IMMEDIATELY** Burns' *10* AFC ANNIHILATOR! sportsinteraction @ 9.5 -110 Baltimore

January 20, 2013 - 8:00 PM NBA Oklahoma City vs. Denver **BIG TICKET ALERT** Burns' *10* Divisional BEST OF THE BEST! ~ EXTREME LIMITED TIME OFFER! betonline @ Under 210.5 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report
4* San Francisco/Atlanta OVER 49 (NFL) Range:47½ to 51½
3* Baltimore +8 over New England (NFL) Range: +9½ to +6½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Great Lake 10* Atlanta Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service
5* BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND OVER 51 (NFL)
3* ATLANTA +4½ OVER SAN FRANCISCO (NFL)
3* BOSTON -2½ OVER DETROIT (NBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA +4½

New ENGLAND-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Cardinal

GOY - Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PRIMETIME SPORTS PICKS
4 Unit Atlanta +4½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball Crusher
Rider +4 over Iona
(System Record: 46-3, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 46-31-0



Soccer Crusher
Anderlecht + Zulte Waregem UNDER 3
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 344-14, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 344-301-40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TRACE ADAMS

Raise the Bar
1500♦
Sunday NFL
Winner #7 of 9

Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

49er's
Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James J-ones
Here is today's pick for Sunday January 20, 2013

* NBA BASKETBALL *

4 Units: Los Angeles Lakers -5 1:05 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - NFL Championships

3* = "OVER" on PATRIOTS/RAVENS
3* = ATLANTA FALCONS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks

3* Baltimore +8 @ Patriots

2* San Fran -4 @ Atlanta

1* San Fran @ Atlanta OVER 48.5

Freebie: Lakers @ Toronto OVER 205

PARLAY ALERT:

#1 49ERS -4 & OVER 48.5

#2 49ERS -4 & BALTIMORE +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Harrison / Vegas Killers

PROPS

Jacquizz Rogers over 54.5 yards rushing and receiving

Aaron Hernandez over 62.5 yards receiving

NBA

Boston Celtics -2
Oklahoma City Thunder -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ Free Play

Over the total between Dallas and Orlando

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSAwins William E. Stockton

20* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
20* NFL New England UNDER 52½
20* NBA Denver +1½
10* NFL Atlanta +5
10* NFL New England -7½
10* NCAAB Indiana UNDER 137½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSAwins Steve "SCOOP" Kendall
20* NFL Atlanta +5
20* NFL New England UNDER 52½
20* NCAAB Rider +4½
10* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
10* NFL New England -7½
10* NBA Boston UNDER 185½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

NFL Football Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Jan 20 '13 (3:00p)
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers
-197 at 5dimes
20* 49ers/Falcons NFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Money Line -197

The 49ers were the most impressive team in the league in the divisional round. Colin Kaepernick had a coming out party in their 45-31 blowout victory over the Green Bay Packers. He threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 181 yards and two scores.

Kaepernick helped the 49ers set a franchise playoff record with 589 total yards of offense. That's saying something when you consider San Francisco has had some very potent offenses dating back to the Joe Montana/Steve Young days. This offense has an excellent chance to explode once again Sunday as it goes up against an Atlanta defense that gave up 491 total yards to Seattle last week.

The 49ers clearly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game and 297.8 total yards per game. Atlanta give up a ridiculous 372.9 yards per game defensively. It is actually getting outgained on the season, which is a sign that the Falcons are not nearly as good as their 14-3 record would indicate.

San Francisco’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that averages 166 yards per game and 5.3 per carry. Atlanta’s biggest weakness defensively is a run defense that allows 123 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Kaepernick, Gore and company are in line for a big day on the ground.

The Falcons rely heavily on Matt Ryan to win games. They average 280 passing yards per game, but just 92 rushing. The 49ers have one of the best passing defenses in the league as they give up a mere 203 passing yards per game and 5.7 per attempt. They held Aaron Rodgers in check last week, and they'll make life very difficult on Ryan Sunday as well.

Jim Harbaugh is a perfect 7-0 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) as the coach of San Francisco. The 49ers are winning in this spot 32.7 to 16.9, or by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Jan 20 '13 (6:30p)
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens
+9½-115 at SIA
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens +9.5

The Ravens have really come together as a team in the playoffs after a tough finish to the regular season. It all coincided with the return of Ray Lewis from injury. Lewis announced that he would be retiring after this season a few weeks back, and this team has completely rallied behind him because of it.

Baltimore went into Denver and came away with a 38-35 overtime victory as a 9.5-point underdog. It overcame two special teams touchdowns by Broncos’ return man Trindon Holliday, as well as a 7-point deficit over the final two minutes of regulation with no timeouts.

Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones on a 70-yard touchdown pass to tie it, while Justin Tucker booted a game-winning 47-yard field goal in overtime. Baltimore outplayed Denver, outgaining it 479-398 for the game. It comes in with a lot of momentum after such a big road win over the AFC's No. 1 seed.

This has been a very tightly contested series in six meetings dating back to 2007. While New England has won four of the six, all four of its victories came by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 3 points.

Baltimore beat New England 31-30 at home earlier this season, and it should have won in the AFC Championship last year as a 7-point underdog. It lost 20-23 at New England after a dropped touchdown pass by Lee Evans, and a missed chip shot field goal by Billy Cundiff in the closing seconds. It certainly wants revenge in this one.

New England will now be without arguably its biggest playmakers in tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the postseason after he re-injured his forearm last week. Gronk has a team-high 11 touchdown receptions and is simply irreplaceable.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.

The Ravens are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 playoff road games. The Patriots are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games, including 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff home games. New England is clearly overvalued here against a Baltimore team that has proven it matches up well with the Patriots over the past six meetings. Bet the Ravens Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports:

3 Picks For Sunday
#301 - NFL - 20 units on San Francisco -3.5
#304 - NFL - 10 units on New England -7.5
#303 - NFL - 10 units on Baltimore & New England Over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 01/20/2013

(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder : o209
Cost: -110

Run Line for 01/20/2013

(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : -5
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

San Francisco 49ers 31
Atlanta Falcons 20

Baltimore Ravens 24
New England Patriots 27

He was 0-4 last week, on the season 53-47-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3* SF over 48.5

Top opinion
NE -7.5

Regular opinions
Under 51.5 NE
SF -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence

5* Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Skipper

Pick: 49ers/Falcons Over 48.5 (-110)
Pick: Patriots -7.5 (-110)
Pick: 49ers -4 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

mti

5-Star NEW ENGLAND -7.5 over Baltimore -- The Ravens got the victory they wanted last week. It made their season successful - a double-overtime game for the ages. After the game, Ray Lewis said "I've never been a part of a game so crazy in my life." They should have very little left for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens are 0-17 ATS (-7.4 ppg) on the road the week after a straight up win in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and 0-8-1 ATS when they are off a double-digit road cover in which they held their opponent to 125 yards rushing or less.
It is very challenging to beat the Patriots twice in the same season. New England is 18-4-2 ATS in the history of the database in their home stadium when seeking same-season revenge for a loss. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and H and P:L and P:season=season and 19891119<=date and week<22
Note that the Pats are 7-0 SU and ATS in this spot since 2001. In their last five games in this spot, their margins of victory were: 31, 21, 17, 42 and 28.
New England held the Texans to 4-of-15 third down conversion attempts and did not allow a scoring drive of 50-plus years until late in the fourth quarter when they were leading by 17 points.
The Patriots are 36-13-4 ATS over the years the week after a game in which they held their opponent to a third down conversion percentage of less than 33%. The SDQL text is:
po:3DP<33 and team=Patriots and p:W and NB and 20011111<=date
New England played virtually an error free game last week and they have been unstoppable in this spot. In the history of the database, the Pats are 16-0 ATS from week 17 on when they are off a game in which they committed fewer than two turnovers, allowed more than three points and were not up by two-TDs at the half, as long as they were not laying a dozen or more points in that game. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and p:TO<2 and week>=17 and p:line>-12 and p:M2<14 and po:points>3
Note that New England has covered by an average of 14.2 ppg in this spot. Last season, they were in a very similar spot. The Broncos were visiting the Patriots off a HUGE upset over the Steelers. New England destroyed them 45-10 with the Broncos only TD a 24-yard drive off a Brady interception.
Psychologically, the Ravens are done whereas the Patriots still have work to do.
The much-anticipated Brady vs Manning bout did not develop, but Brady can gain ground on Manning by trashing a team that beat Manning. Lay the points. MTi's FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 41 Baltimore 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Banks

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

The AFC Championship Game this season is a rematch of last year's championship game at the same venue, as the New England Patriots are once again hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 6:30 ET on CBS. The Patriots prevailed in this game 23-20 last season, and then these teams met again in the regular season this year with the Ravens prevailing in another close but higher scoring game 31-30 back in September with replacement officials doing the game.

The Ravens have always defended Tom Brady well, so we may not see the same offense that dismantled the Houston Texans 41-28 in the divisional round this week. Yes, the Pats put up 30 points in the regular season meeting, but remember that Baltimore's best pass rusher Terrell Suggs was out for that game. Suggs and Ray Lewis are now both playing at the same time, something that did not happen even once during the regular season, and when you add in the blossoming of Paul Kruger as an outstanding rush linebacker as the year went on, you may see the Baltimore defense here that made Brady look very ordinary in this game last year when he completed just 22-of-36 passes for 239 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Also, expect Baltimore to employ a ball control offensive game plan here in an attempt to keep Brady and the New England offense on the sideline as long as possible.

That Ravens' game plan will probably start with heavy doses of Ray Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in the regular season meeting. Now the Patriots' run defense did improve as the year went on, as New England in fact finished seventh in the NFL in rushing defense during the season allowing only 101.4 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. However, the Denver Broncos finished fourth in rushing defense while allowing 3.6 yards per carry, and that did not stop Rice from rushing for 131 yards against them last week. That rushing success also freed up Joe Flacco to have one of his best games ever given what was at stake, as he threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-35 overtime upset win. Baltimore may rely more on Rice this week as it tries to play keep-away, but Flacco should again have success when he is call upon as long as the Patriots have to worry about Rice. Also, the Baltimore offensive line did an outstanding job against a Denver defensive line that tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks, as Flacco was only sacked once all game, and that is not to mention all the running lanes the line opened up for Rice.

Believe it or now, the Patriots are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games overall including 2-7 ATS here at home. The Ravens meanwhile are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff road games. Also, the underdogs are now 3-0-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings with two of those underdog covers being by Baltimore in the playoffs.

Pick: OVER 51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

4* New England
3* Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSAwins Lou "BIG PLAY" Panelli
20* NFL Atlanta +5
20* NFL New England -7½
20* NCAAB So Illinois +2
10* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
10* NFL New England UNDER 52.5
10* NBA Denver +1½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSAwins Gerry "BIG CAT" Andino
20* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
20* NFL New England -7½
20* NCAAB NC State -9½
10* NFL Atlanta +5
10* NFL New England UNDER 52½
10* NBA Denver +1½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll sports---3-3 yesterday---won all 3 top plays--lost 3 smaller plays--won 10* on mich st -2---now 11-14 last 25 ten* plays

todays card

10* ravens/pats under 51.5
5* 49 ers -4
5* den nuggets +1.5 nba
4* northwestern +12 cbb
3* new england -7.5
2* tor raptors +4.5 nba

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness
Legend- Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sbb

4-STAR Boston -1.5 over DETROIT - This line is taking the writing off of the Celtics a little too far. It's not like Detroit is even a home juggernaut. They've lost three straight home games to the likes of Charlotte, Utah and New York. Boston is going to be motivated here having dropped two in a row and should end that streak tonight.
Boston lost a tough one Friday night, 100-99 to Chicago in overtime. They fought back from a double digit deficit in the game. The Celtics are 15-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since December 31, 2005 on the road in the regular season with at most one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by double digits.
Boston actually made two more baskets than Chicago in that game. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since March 12, 2012 on the road after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
They struggled from the three-point line however, going 3-of-14. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since March 16, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
One Celtic who struggled in that game was Paul Pierce. He went just 5-of-17 from the field. The Celtics are 15-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 11, 2004 on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Paul Pierce shot worse than 33% from the field and they attempted more than 75 shots as a team.
When these teams met in November, Detroit won handily in a game where Boston struggled. Pierce went 5-of-13 in that game and had three turnovers without a single assist. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since March 02, 2010 as a favorite after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Paul Pierce had more turnovers than assists.
Rajon Rondo went an efficient 5-of-7 in that game but scored just 12 points. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since April 16, 2007 after losing the previous matchup in which Rajon Rondo shot better than 66% from the field. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Boston 98, DETROIT 89

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd NBA and CBB

3* NBA Total
LA Lakers/Toronto Raptors UNDER 204

3* CBB
Drake +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SI

SUNDAY PICKS(CHICAGO)
FORTUNE 500: 20* NFL Patriots -8
FORTUNE 500: 20* NFL Falcons over 48.5
FORTUNE 500: 20* NFL Patriots under 51
EXECUTIVE: 10* NFL Falcons +3.5
EXECUTIVE: 10* CBB Illinois St -1.5
DIRECTORS: 10* NBA Celtics -1.5

SUNDAY PICKS(CAMPONE)
CADILLAC: 20* NFL Patriots -8
CADILLAC: 20* NFL Falcons over 48.5
20* NFL Patriots under 51
WISEGUY ACTION: 10* NFL Falcons +3.5
WISEGUY ACTION: 10* CBB Northwestern +12
SHARP EDGE: 10* NBA Magic under 201

SUNDAY PICKS(CALLAHAN)
20* NFL Falcons +3.5 (GOY)
20* NFL Patriots under 51
20* NFL Falcons over 48.5
15* NFL Patriots -8
15* NBA Nuggets +1
10* CBB NC St over 133

SUNDAY PICKS(SOUTH BEACH)
ZEBRA CLUB: 20* NFL Ravens +8
BIG ACTION: NFL 49ers -3.5
BIG ACTION: NFL Ravens over 51
BIG ACTION: NFL 49ers under 48
HILTON: NBA Celtics -1.5

SUNDAY PICKS(HOLLYWOOD)
INSIDE ACTION: 20* NFL Ravens +8
BLUE RIBBON: NFL 49ers over 48
BLUE RIBBON: NFL Ravens under 51
WISEGUY EDGE: NFL 49ers -3.5
WISEGUY EDGE: NBA Magic under 201

SUNDAY PICKS(MICHIGAN)
BIG HOUSE: 20* NFL Patriots -8
BIG HOUSE: 20* NFL Falcons under 48
LOCKERROOM: 20* NFL Falcons +3.5
PRESSBOX: 15* NFL Patriots under 51
PRESSBOX: 5* CBB Iona -3.5

SUNDAY PICKS(NEW YORK)
INNER CIRCLE: 20* NFL Ravens +8
SYNDICATE: NFL 49ers over 48
SYNDICATE: NFL Ravens under 51
SYNDICATE: NFL 49ers -3.5
DATA: NBA Nuggets over 209

SUNDAY PICKS(PIOLI)
HIGH ROLLER: 20* NFL Patriots -8
HIGH ROLLER: 20* NFL Falcons +3.5
VEGAS WISEGUY: 10* NFL Patriots under 51
VEGAS WISEGUY: 10* NFL Falcons under 48
LINE VALUE: 5* CBB Furman +8

SUNDAY PICKS(VIP ACTION)
VIP CLUB: 20* NFL Patriots -8
ROXY'S: NFL Falcons over 48
ROXY'S: NFL Patriots under 51
ROXY's: NFL Falcons +3.5
RIVERBOAT: CBB Illinois St over 142

SUNDAY PICKS(20* CONSENSUS)
20* NFL Patriots -8
20* NFL Falcons over 48
20* NFL Patriots under 51 BONUS PLAYS
10* NFL Falcons +3.5
10* NBA Lakers -4.5

SUNDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)
20* NFL Falcons +3.5 and 10* NFL OVER 48
20* NFL Patriots -8 and 10* NFL UNDER 51
20* NBA Celtics -1.5 and 10* NBA UNDER 185
20* CBB NC St -9.5 and 10* CBB OVER 133
20* CBB Northwestern +12 and 10* CBB UNDER 137

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friends of Mike Lee 3* S Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast Double Play on Suggs over 4 tackles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JrTips Premium Picks For Sunday, Jan 20th, 2013
10,000,000* Lakers-4
10,000,000* San Francisco Over 48½
10,000,000* Baltimore Over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sammy p buffalo 15*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PPP
49ers
Patriots
SF / ATL Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERPLAYWINS

Play of the day

NFL: San Francisco 49ers -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy NFL

49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soulhat Sports
NBA Raptors +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports-Junkie

BetThisPick

RARE TWO PLAY DAY

01-20-13 Play of the Day

5* NFL: 49ers vs Falcons +4 (3:00 pm est.)
(Pending)



5* NBA: Thunder vs Denver +1.5 (8:05 pm est.)
(Pending)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily NHL Shots on Goal January 20, 2013 7:15 AM by Nick Pellegrino

NHL Eastern Conference

Buffalo Sabres (-120) vs. Philadelphia

NHL Western Conference

Edmonton Oilers (+130) at Vancouver

NHL Hockey Totals

Philadelphia-Buffalo, UNDER 5½ (-105)

Edmonton-Vancouver, OVER 5½ (-105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Weekend wagers with Weekend Warrior January 20, 2013 7:12 AM by Mark Mayer

NFL Conference Championship Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens+7½

Atlanta Falcons+4

NCAA Basketball

Rider +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks January 20, 2013 7:08 AM by GT Staff

NFL Conference Championship Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons +4

Baltimore Ravens +7½

NBA Basketball

Toronto Raptors +5

Los Angeles Lakers/Toronto Raptors UNDER 204

Boston Celtics -2

Boston Celtics/Detroit Pistons UNDER 185

Oklahoma City Thunder/Denver Nuggets OVER 209

NCAA Basketball

Northwestern +12

NC State -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sports Experts

NFL
4 Unit Best Bet New England -7.5

NBA
2 Units Detroit +2

CBB
2 Units Clemson +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob
Sunday NBA Opinion
DENVER (+1) over Oklahoma City
Rotation #808 – 5:05 pm Pacific
Denver is coming off a two losses, including a 97-117 loss in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are usually at their best after a loss, especially when the opponent is coming off a win. Denver is now 47-17-1 ATS when rested after a loss against an opponent off a win (4-2 ATS this season), including 20-4 ATS as an underdog. My ratings favor Oklahoma City by 2 points, so the line could be a bit higher, but I’ll lean with Denver based on the strong team trend.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Delawarian

Game: Thunder vs Denver

Pick: Thunder/Denver UNDER 209 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

2.2 Units



Game: Iona vs Rider

Pick: Rider +3.5 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

1.1 Units



Game: Thunder vs Denver

Pick: Denver +1.5 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

2.2 Units



1/20/2013

Game: Boston vs Detroit

Pick: Detroit +2 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

2.2 Units




Game: Ravens vs Patriots

Pick: Ravens +9 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

1.1 Units



Game: 49ers vs Falcons

Pick: Falcons +4 (-110)


Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)

3.3 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsAction365 FRANK "BIG MONEY" SANTILLI
LATE INFO VIP NFL New England -7½
LATE INFO VIP NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
200* NFL New England UNDER 52½
200* NFL Atlanta +5
200* NCAAB Rider +4
100* NBA Denver +1½
100* NCAAB Indiana -11
75* NCAAB NC State -9½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA
nfl
OVER ATLANTA / SAN FRANSICO
Atlanta


nba
over la lakers / toronto raptors

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Football Play of the Day January 20, 2013 7:02 AM by GT Staff

NFL Conference Championships

Baltimore Ravens +7½ at New England Patriots 3:30 p.m. CBS

New England is a public team, which means inflated points spreads especially at Foxborough. The game opened at 9½ and bet down so wiseguys are on Baltimore. So are we. These teams play close games.

RAVENS +7½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

wallace report
under lakers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoopsgooroo 1/20

301 49ers -5 @ 3p
303 Ravens +10 @ 6:30p

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

PGOY 500% NE PATS
250% Atl Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

executive hoops
250% clemson

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marco d'angelo

3* pats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Mavericks won four of last five games (12-10 vs spread A).
-- Thunder won last six games (10-6 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Lakers lost seven of last nine games (4-4-1 AF). Toronto lost its last four games, last two in OT (6-3 HU).
-- Magic lost eight of last ten games (7-11 vs spread H).
-- Detroit lost three of last four games (5-4 HU); they're just back from trip to London, where they lost to the Knicks. Celtics lost last two games, after winning previous six (2-4 AF).
-- Nuggets lost last two games, after winning previous six (15-3 SU H).

Totals
-- Last five Laker games stayed under the total; last four Toronto games went over.
-- Nine of last ten Orlando games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Northwestern won six of last eight games vs Indiana, winning three in row in this gym by 2-17-12 points; Wildcats are 2-3 in league, but 0-2 at home, losing by 28-20 points. Hoosiers got beat at home by Wisconsin last game; they won only two road contests this year, by 4-23. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Indiana games. Big Dozen home underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 1-3 if getting double digits.
-- Northern Iowa won six of last seven games vs Drake, winning the last three played here, by 16-20-14 points; Panthers are 2-4 in Valley, with wins by 10-31 points. Bulldogs won last two games, scoring 82-83, but all four of their MVC losses are by 10+ points, with road losses by 10-30 points. Last five Drake games went over the total. MVC double digit home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.
-- Illinois State is disappointing 0-6 in Valley after 9-3 preseason; they won 7 of last 11 games vs Southern Illinois, but lost last three visits to Carbondale, by 1-4-15 points. SIU lost six of last seven games, as three of last four losses were by six or less points. Four of last five Illinois State games stayed under; five of last six Saluki games went over total. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-1 vs spread.

-- Clemson won seven of last nine games vs NC State, winning three of last four played here, but Tigers lost last two road games, at Duke by 28, Coastal Carolina by 23. Wolfpack got upset at Maryland last game; they're 2-0 at home in ACC, winning by 13-8 points. Six of last eight NC State games went over total; five of last seven Clemson games stayed under. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 5-2 vs spread.
-- Iona won six of last seven games with Rider, winning last three here by 20-4-13 points; Gaels won last six games after 6-6 start, scoring 89 ppg in last three games. Broncs won last four games, allowing 56 ppg; they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 8-11-17-12 points. Nine of last ten Iona games went over total; seven of last ten Rider games stayed under. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 2-4 vs spread.
-- Furman won five of last seven games vs NC-Greensboro; Paladins are 1-5 in last six visits here, losing by 8-6-15-12-13 points, as home team won 10 of last 12 series games. Furman lost seven of last eight games- they're 0-2 on SoCon road, losing by 4-14 points. SoCon home favorites of 17 or less points are 3-10 vs spread. Four of last five UNCG games stayed under total; last three Furman games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Godfather

My Moves



[817] IONA 1000: -3.5
[819] FURMAN 500: +8
[815] CLEMSON 500: +9.5
[813] ILLINOIS STATE 500: -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball

I am passing on Sunday's card and will be back with more winners on Monday.



Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball

I am passing on Sunday's card and will be back with more winners on Monday.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NHL Hockey

3-Unit Play. #61 Take Chicago Blackhawks -120 vs. Phoenix Coyotes (Sunday @ 10:05 p.m. est)
The Chicago Blackhawks are another team that was bounced in the opening round of the playoffs and the Hawks should be back with a vengeance this year. After ruining the LA Kings ring ceremony they get another chance at the Phoenix Coyotes at the Jobing.com (http://jobing.com/) Arena, Glendale, Arizona on Sunday Night. This Coyotes team sidelined the Hawks with a (4-2) opening round exit from the postseason to end last year. Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman clearly thinks the team he had in place at the end of last season is good enough. The biggest offseason news for the Blackhawks could be the return to full health of star forward Marian Hossa, who sustained a concussion in Game 3 of Chicago's first-round playoff series on a hard hit from Phoenix's Raffi Torres. Chicago also added a pair of veterans on defense in Sheldon Brookbank and Michal Rozsival. HC Joel Quenneville has a defense considered one of the best in the NHL. The defense features the elite, shutdown tandem of Duncan Keith (45 points, 149 blocked shots) and Brent Seabrook (48 points, 227 hits). The acquisition of veteran D Steve Montador (138 blocked shots), adds plenty of toughness to the back end and he plays alongside the steady Niklas Hjalmarsson (166 blocked shots). The Road team is (5-0) in the last (5) meetings.

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Robert Ferringo's Picks For NHL Hockey
3-Units Take #59 Edmonton (+1.30) over Vancouver (9pm, Sunday, January 20th)

The Oilers have youth but more importantly have talented youth in what I think will be a breakout year this squad. They catch a Vancouver team that has been the success story of the Western Conference the last couple of years but a team that I think is very fragile right now. The Canucks will play their first back to back sets of the season after
getting beat last night at home 7-3 at the hands of the Ducks and lost a key player with Ryan Kessler leaving with a injury and won't be in the lineup tonight which isn't good for a lineup already missing some parts. I think Edmonton views this a big game for many reasons and I think Vancouver has some problems that are deeper then people think. Take the youthful and excited team at plus money here.

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Seabass
50 Clemson
100 Dallas
Denver
Sf over
balt over

100 Ml play on sf and if they win ne minus points for a 100 if atl wins play 100 on Baltimore plus points

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Cowtown Sports

San Francisco

Baltimore

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Cal sports

4 star Clemson
3 star LAKERS UNDER

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Ray Falco

NFL

Pats

CBB

Rider

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SPORTS WAGERS - PUCKS

PHOENIX +110 over Chicago


OT included. The Blackhawks' win over the Kings yesterday afternoon was not as convincing as the final score. Chicago ran into a shaky Jonathan Quick and capitalized on the few scoring chances they had. That's not to say they're imposters because offensively, this visitor is scary good. However, the Coyotes defense and goaltending as good as anyone's and this game is not going to be as easy as yesterday's.
The Coyotes opened the season in Dallas and lost 4-3. However, Phoenix deserved a better fate, as they were the better team that carried the play from the start. The Coyotes had a strong season last year and they're going to be even stronger this time around. Led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle and the newly acquired, former Coyote Zbynek Michalek, Phoenix's defense doesn't get near the recognition they deserve because of the market they play in. Remember, this is a team that went to the conference finals last year and if guys like Lauri Korpikoski and Mikkel Boedker play to their potential, Phoenix is not going to be as offensively challenged as most think. The Coyotes are going to be a tough out again and as a dog in their own rink, they'll continue to offer up value.


VANCOUVER -½ +111 over Edmonton


Regulation time. So now what? About 27 minutes into his status as the new #1 goalie in Vancouver, Cory Schneider was pulled after allowing five goals and the Canucks were buried by Anaheim 7-3. Relax folks. One game does not make a season and these Canucks are not about to lie down after such a humiliating opener. As a result of that humbling performance last night, the Canucks are undervalued. How could they be a -156 favorite last night against Anaheim and just a -140 favorite over a team they've owned at this venue? Again, it's based on one game and we get to take advantage of that.
The Oilers haven't had this much hype surrounding them coming into a a season since Wayne Gretzky was wearing his famous #99 in an Edmonton uniform. The Oilers are loaded with young talent and the optimism could be warranted. Led by Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz and Nail Yakupov, these kids are primed to make a run. However, it's the first game, they have a new coach and they still have an unproven defense and potentially shaky goaltending. They Oilers also have just one win in Vancouver over their past nine games here and went 1-5 overall in this series last season while being outscored 15-7 in the last four. Have things changed that much? We're not buying that just yet.

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marco d'angelo

1* nuggets

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Silky Sullivan

Playoff GOY - Atlanta Falcons

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The Duke's Sports

2.5 Units Baltimore +8

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Guaranteed : Top/ New England

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Sunday 1/20/13 Plays...

3* FALCONS +5.5 (12PM PST)

3* PATRIOTS -7.5 (3:30PM PST)

---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

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LEGIT PICKS

Sunday 1/20/13 Plays...

3* FALCONS +5.5 (12PM PST)

3* PATRIOTS -7.5 (3:30PM PST)

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Double Dragon Sports-
Niners -3 (-120),
Ravens +10
Over on both games

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Jeff benton
50 dime play
balt. / n.e. Over 51 1/2

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ArlonSports

3* Illinois St.

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Youngstown Connection

Date: Sunday January 20, 2013
$15.00 NFL Selection #1

#302 Atlanta +4 3PM Eastern

Line from CRIS
Line as of 3AM Eastern 1/20/13

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StraightUPWinners Sharp - Xavier Singleton
Sports Picks, January 20, 2013

Game of the Year
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons 3pm
10-Unit UNDER 49 @ 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)

There's a couple different factors that really need to be considered. First that this game is in Atlanta. That is a major boast this Atlanta's defense. Atlanta went Under in 7 of its 9 home games, that's a major trend to consider. Also, despite his glaring success last week Colin Kaepernick has been a starting NFL QB since November 19th, yes 2 months of experience in a game that's for the NFC Championship. Kaepernick road numbers are drastically different. He has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio on the road to a 4/0 home. More drastic is his completion percentage of 58.8% vs 66.7% at home, and a 2-2 road record. In those 2 road losses, 49ers scored 13 points in each game. That's it. In all this, it's not that Kaepernick has to play poorly. Let's not forget that Atlanta is the 5th best defense in ppg, and have only allowed 17 ppg game at home this season. That's great stuff.

That's one side of the coin and I could of said a lot more but I didn't want to bore you, so let me cover SF. Don't forget this is a defensive team, with one of the best defensive lines in all of football. SF finished the regular season 3rd in total defense, 4th against the pass and we all know that's Atlanta's strength. All of this stems from this beast Dline. They get after the QB and hold opponents QB rating to 78% 6th best in the NFL. By the Way, Falcons are 5th best. What I love most about this 49ers defense is there ability to not give up huge chucks of yardage. They allowed the 3rd fewest plays of 20+ yards or more. That's an incredible performance. Atlanta lives off these plays in the passing game.

All of this and we get a huge number. Atlanta is consistently around 50 as a total, no surprise but this is against one of the elite defenses in the NFL. 49ers have only had a total of 49+ once all year. This number is out of place. Atlanta and San Francisco are going to be playing a physical game. Both players have the players on defense and the ability to throw off the other teams QB. I expect this game to go under by a full touchdown.

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HSW
3 Atl
3 NE
GD West
1 Atl under
1 NE under
GD NY
1 Atl under
1 NE u
L & M Las Vegas
2 Balt

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Matt Fargo

enforcer denver nuggets

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Sports Money Profit System

#1: Take New England Patriots at -8 spread against Baltimore Ravens risking 1 unit. (6:30 pm)

-7.5 and -8.5 are also fine.


Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -1 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2 Units.

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James J-ones
Here are today's picks for Sunday January 20, 2013

* NBA BASKETBALL *


5 Units: Detroit Pistons +2 7:35 PM EST




5 Units: Orlando Magic +3.5 6:05 PM EST




4 Units: Los Angeles Lakers -5 1:05 PM EST


* NCAA BASKETBALL *




4 Units: NC State -9 8:00 PM EST

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Pucking Hockey

Penguins vs Rangers UNDER 5.5 ($50) CLICK HERE to read our preview of the game




Oilers vs Canucks OVER 5.5 ($500) CLICK HERE to read our preview of the game (BIG NHL PICK OF THE DAY)

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Wise Guy Locks

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons Over 184.5 -110

Denver Nuggets +1 -110

Illinois State -2.5 -110

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers Over 5.5 +105