Bellator 86

[poopoo333]

MAIN (Spike TV, 10 p.m. ET)


Ben Askren (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/ben-askren) vs. Karl Amoussou (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/karl-amoussou) - for welterweight title
Muhammed Lawal (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/muhammed-mo-lawal) vs. Przemyslaw Mysiala (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/przemyslaw-mysiala) - light-heavyweight-tournament opening round
Douglas Lima (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/douglas-lima) vs. Michail Tsarev (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/michail-tsarev) - welterweight-tournament opening round
Ben Saunders (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/ben-saunders) vs. Koffi Adzitso (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/koffi-adzitso) - welterweight-tournament opening round

PRELIMINARY (Spike.com, 8 p.m. ET)


Brent Weedman (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/brent-weedman) vs. Marius Zaromskis (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/marius-zaromskis) - welterweight-tournament opening round
Raul Amaya (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/raul-amaya) vs. Jose Gomes (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/jose-gomes) - welterweight-tournament opening round
Javier Obregon (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/javier-obregon) vs. Hunter Tucker (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/hunter-tucker)
Mike Maldonado (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/mike-maldonado) vs. Joseph Salas (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/joseph-salas)
Zach Church (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/zach-church) vs. Damon Jackson (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/damon-jackson)
Cortez Coleman (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/cortez-coleman) vs. Matt Jones (http://www.mmajunkie.com/fighters/matt-jones)

[poopoo333]

On the main card, all the guys on the left hand side should win. King Mo and Ben Askren=ultimate square parlay, but it's gonna cash. It's too bad we are probably going to get Josh Barnett/Daniel Cormier lines from the last Strikeforce card.

[SPX]

Ultimate square parlay?

[poopoo333]

Ultimate square parlay?

It's kind of a joke, but you have never heard the term "square bet"?

[SPX]

I have not.

[MMA_scientist]

I talked to Brent Weedman a few months ago at a tourney. I have a lot of faith in his ground game... he has gotten a lot better. I recall a time when I thought I could beat him in a grappling match. I definitely cannot beat him.

Also, in a Bellator aside, I went to this blackbelts for Autism event yesterday, and Dan Hornbuckle was there. I have rolled with him before a couple years ago. He got his brown belt, and he is a super nice guy.

[poopoo333]

I talked to Brent Weedman a few months ago at a tourney. I have a lot of faith in his ground game... he has gotten a lot better. I recall a time when I thought I could beat him in a grappling match. I definitely cannot beat him.

Also, in a Bellator aside, I went to this blackbelts for Autism event yesterday, and Dan Hornbuckle was there. I have rolled with him before a couple years ago. He got his brown belt, and he is a super nice guy.

I remember when Bellator started getting popular, you used to kill it in betting the fights. I'd always tail you and make like 5 units a night at $1 a unit.

[MMA_scientist]

I remember when Bellator started getting popular, you used to kill it in betting the fights. I'd always tail you and make like 5 units a night at $1 a unit.

Yeah, I used to research all the guys and find a lot of value. I need to start paying attention to Bellator again. I haven't been watching it since the great loss of interest of 2012. I always did better on SF and Bellator than UFC, just because you can find more mismatches. I almost always watch Askren though, so I will probably bet this card.

[edman5555]

You should go back to your old researching ways. We can use the help here.

[MMA_scientist]

I want to, but I did just as well last year without having to do any work. I am pretty steady, I make about 20-30u every year since 2009. The only issue is that I am starting to not know who the fighters are, since I haven't been watching TUF and I don't watch every card (this last card, I only watched Bisping/Belfort, but I did watch the entire SF card). I will probably need to watch more fights if I hope to continue betting... as last year I basically lived off of residual knowledge of fighters.

[edman5555]

Well i am trying to step it up this year. Poopoo and spx are upping their units this year as well. We can get a good 2011 style team going here.

[MMA_scientist]

I will try to contribute as much as I can. I stopped bankroll building a few years ago, I pretty much just cash out every year and use it for a vacation.

[poopoo333]

I will try to contribute as much as I can. I stopped bankroll building a few years ago, I pretty much just cash out every year and use it for a vacation.

I was wondering...what does everybody do with their winnings? You just answered that with the whole vacation thing. But, do most of you keep it and build your bankroll to be able to bet more money in the long run? Do you use it as extra spending money? etc

[MMA_scientist]

I was wondering...what does everybody do with their winnings? You just answered that with the whole vacation thing. But, do most of you keep it and build your bankroll to be able to bet more money in the long run? Do you use it as extra spending money? etc

I realized that I was really at the maximum bankroll for online play for my style of betting. Having a bigger bankroll wouldn't let me bet more than the limits... so I just decided to keep my bankroll there and take profits when I feel like it. The last 2 years I have used it for a trip. One year I gave it to my mom.

[SPX]

. . . and Dan Hornbuckle was there. I have rolled with him before a couple years ago. He got his brown belt, and he is a super nice guy.

I noticed he also just dropped off the map.

[SPX]

Well i am trying to step it up this year. Poopoo and spx are upping their units this year as well. We can get a good 2011 style team going here.

Yeah. I'm going to start paying more attention, doing more research, etc. Like Scientist, I have just been going off of pre-existing knowledge and there are a lot of fighters now who I just don't know.

BTW edmann, do you ever listen to the Sherdog roundtable? I have found it to be very helpful for betting purposes. I've made a lot of winning bets on fighters who I had never seen fight just based on that tool alone.

[MMA_scientist]

I noticed he also just dropped off the map.

Yep. I don't know what happened there. He is still training. I remember when he was ranked #8 in the world at 170.

[SPX]

I was wondering...what does everybody do with their winnings? You just answered that with the whole vacation thing. But, do most of you keep it and build your bankroll to be able to bet more money in the long run? Do you use it as extra spending money? etc

I just kept it deposited for like 2 1/2 years until I had to do the BM withdrawals to pay bills. If that financial crisis hadn't come, I'm sure I'd still just have it sitting in there and slowly growing. I actually didn't plan to take anything out for like 10 years (provided the books last that long).

[SPX]

I realized that I was really at the maximum bankroll for online play for my style of betting. Having a bigger bankroll wouldn't let me bet more than the limits...

You can get around that by betting the same bet at multiple books.

[SPX]

Yep. I don't know what happened there. He is still training. I remember when he was ranked #8 in the world at 185.

I just looked him up on Wiki and it looks like he's going to be fighting Pete Spratt later this year. He hasn't fought since his last Bellator loss in 2011, though.

[MMA_scientist]

You can get around that by betting the same bet at multiple books.

Only 1 book offers the prop bets that I max out on. That is what I used to do though, I guess I could start betting actual fights again. I don't really trust the books like I used to either.

[edman5555]

Yeah. I'm going to start paying more attention, doing more research, etc. Like Scientist, I have just been going off of pre-existing knowledge and there are a lot of fighters now who I just don't know.

BTW edmann, do you ever listen to the Sherdog roundtable? I have found it to be very helpful for betting purposes. I've made a lot of winning bets on fighters who I had never seen fight just based on that tool alone.

Ive never listened to them. I like to listen to others but at the end of the day I think it is better to go off my own research. Of course it helps to listen to others.

[edman5555]

Only 1 book offers the prop bets that I max out on. That is what I used to do though, I guess I could start betting actual fights again. I don't really trust the books like I used to either.

Can you elaborate please?

[SPX]

Ive never listened to them. I like to listen to others but at the end of the day I think it is better to go off my own research. Of course it helps to listen to others.

The Roundtable is great. Every event they bring in 3 guys to discuss the fights and break them down. I actually think it's a pretty invaluable tool. Hell, it's why I went ahead and bet Barboza this past weekend.

[MMA_scientist]

Can you elaborate please?

none of the other books offer the submission props. I am scared to keep 10k in 5d, because I am afraid theyll never give it back. I max out the props all the time. Trying to bet much more than a couple grand is not feasible for me on those props. I usually just keep enough in there to cover my bets, which is fine when you have $1000 in play at once... but with those high line props, to raise the stakes, I would have to keep more money in there than I am comfortable with.

[edman5555]

The Roundtable is great. Every event they bring in 3 guys to discuss the fights and break them down. I actually think it's a pretty invaluable tool. Hell, it's why I went ahead and bet Barboza this past weekend.

Yeah i bet barboza too but it was because i found out that his opponent was an amateur muay thai fighter and i knew barboza was a top of the line pro muay thai fighter with much more mma experience.

[edman5555]

none of the other books offer the submission props. I am scared to keep 10k in 5d, because I am afraid theyll never give it back. I max out the props all the time. Trying to bet much more than a couple grand is not feasible for me on those props. I usually just keep enough in there to cover my bets, which is fine when you have $1000 in play at once... but with those high line props, to raise the stakes, I would have to keep more money in there than I am comfortable with.


What makes you think they will run with the money now as opposed to befoe?

[MMA_scientist]

What makes you think they will run with the money now as opposed to befoe?

Irrational fear

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/631.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[SPX]

What's everyone think of Weedman/Zaromskis?

[poopoo333]

I like Weedman a lot

[SPX]

Why?

[Mr. IWS]

Why?

He grows good shit.

::handshake::

[MMA_scientist]

What's everyone think of Weedman/Zaromskis?

I like weedman to win with grappling

[MMA_scientist]

just threw down a favorites parlay on the 4 big faves. I hate the line on Askren though, and actually feel like Amassou is worth a bet.

[edman5555]

Irrational fear

The last time you said not to listen to you was when I bet Marquardt over Saff.

[MMA_scientist]

When many books shut down their poker rooms and the web addresses all changed from .com to .eu, that's when I decided it is a realistic possibility. It has happened before with other books, including pretty popular ones. It could happen, you definitely can't keep your whole bankroll in the book like I used to do.

[SPX]

Yeah, it's a bit of a concern. But it seems to me that as long as the books don't keep any money in American banks and operate entirely off-shore then they should be fine.

[poopoo333]

Has anybody researched Saunders' opponent? I don't want to get fucked by putting him in a parlay and having him get KTFO or grapple fucked

[MMA_scientist]

he is a striker. Saunders is going to KO him in the first round. Lima is the one that could lose IMO.

[trotterz]

he is a striker. Saunders is going to KO him in the first round. Lima is the one that could lose IMO.

I agree, Lima is fighting a solid striker. He got wrestlefucked by Good, but Lima doesn't have Good's wrestling or control abilities