UFC 161

[poopoo333]

Lil Nog vs Shogun announced

Rumored fights:

Jake Shields vs. Tyron Woodley*
Stipe Miocic vs. face Soa Palelei*


Main event is TBD.

[poopoo333]

Rashad Evans vs Dan Henderson also targeted

[edman5555]

Excited about rashad hendo

[Thewisemann]

Hendo by KO

[poopoo333]

Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland will headline UFC 161

...

[Luke]

WHAT THE FLYING FUCK?????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????

Hendo-Evans and Shogun-Lil Nog is three rounds but fucking Eddie "no one knows who I am" Wineland and the little Brazilian monkey is 5?

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SPX]

So you think a title fight should be something other than the main event?

[Luke]

So you think a title fight should be something other than the main event?

Correct.The main event is suppose to be the two biggest fighters on the card....the two biggest draws.

Could you imagine Floyd Mayweather on the on the under card and two people you've never heard of as the main event because they have a title?

[SPX]

I think respect should always be given to the title first and foremost. It's kind of like the President . . . even if you don't like the man himself, you should respect the office and what it symbolizes.

Also, Wineland has been around a long fucking time. You say no one knows who he is. That may be true among casuals, but shit, they probably don't know who Alexander Gustaffson is either. Or Gilbert Melendez.

[Luke]

Id be happier if they just made the other two fights five rounds also

[edman5555]

Id be happier if they just made the other two fights five rounds also

Yeah those are two awesome fights that deserve to be five rounds

[poopoo333]

I plan on betting Wineland

[edman5555]

This reminds me of the last matchup. Wineland also has some power in his hands but i think his wrestling could be enough to stop barao. Its going to have to be because barao is a ninja n the ground.

[poopoo333]

Pat Barry-Shawn Jordan joins UFC 161; Jake Shields-Tyron Woodley official (http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/03/pat-barry-shawn-jordan-joins-ufc-161-jake-shields-tyron-woodley-official)

[poopoo333]

Isaac Vallie-Flagg risks long unbeaten streak against Sam Stout at UFC 161


Pierson vs. Waldburger set for UFC 161
..

[SPX]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/6716.png

[SPX]

Just took Hendo at Even.

[edman5555]

I kinda like Hendo in that one unless of course Rashad comes to wrestle. Even then its Hendo or nothing. I don't bet against Hendo given the power in his hands and how he loves to swing for the fences.

[SPX]

Lose to Lil Nog, get Dan Henderson. That's rough.

I do give Hendo an edge here and think the odds should be reversed. Why is Rashad a favorite? I wouldn't be surprised to see Rashad give an encore of his exit from the Machida fight.

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/6715.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[SPX]

I'll probably take Shogun at those odds.

[poopoo333]

Same. He is obviously on the decline but I think he matches up well with Lil Nog.

[SPX]

He's been on the decline for like 5 years.

[SPX]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/6717.png

[SPX]

Anyone else think Shields is worth a bet there?

[trotterz]

I am under the impression that shields shouldn't be the underdog here.
I would bet him at that line, but he went from +136 to +151, so I am not sure if I should wait to see if the line will get even better

[SPX]

I went ahead and put enough on him to win a unit. If he gets appreciably better then I'll put more on him.

Is Woodley really that impressive? I think Shield's can handle his wrestling and Woodley always gasses in the later rounds. 29-28 Shields sounds good to me.

[edman5555]

Tough one to call. I could see woodley knocking him out or shields latching on a choke. Most liikely it goes to decision.

[Svino]

Barao injured, out of main event:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/5/18/4344098/mma-news-renan-barao-injured-out-of-ufc-161-main-event-vs-eddie-wineland

[SPX]

Well at least I can say that the injury bug seems to be hitting a lot less frequently now. . .

It was every three days for a while.

[poopoo333]

Gay. I was gonna bet Wineland.

[Luke]

Sonnen stepping in for Barao

[Luke]

Maybe we can get Hendo-Evans as a 5 rounder now

[Mr. IWS]

Sonnen stepping in for Barao


LOL

[edman5555]

LOL

Big cut. Must be off the trt.

[Thewisemann]

Thoughts on Miocic/Nelson?

[Thewisemann]

Can he/will he take Country down?

[Luke]

Nelson

Stipe was tagged by De Fries and KO'd by Struve......he's going to sleep

[Thewisemann]

Yea I'm thinking that now too. Just watched both of those fights.

[Vandelay]

Line will probably be between 200 and 250 for roy

[edman5555]

Line will probably be between 200 and 250 for roy

I bet he is a bigger Favorite than that.

[edman5555]

I am kinda liking Dan Henderson. I think Rashad might have trouble taking him down and Hendo has the clear advantage standing. At least in power that is. Rashad looked like he didn't want to fight Nog as well.

[poopoo333]

I actually think if Rashad really tries to wrestle, he will come out a winner.

[edman5555]

Maybe your right. I always forget Shields did it. I think its fair to say Rashad isn't going to finish him so that means Dan has 25 minutes to drop the bomb on him.

[Luke]

I actually think if Rashad really tries to wrestle, he will come out a winner.

I wanna know why he employ that strategy against Lil Nog?

[poopoo333]

I wanna know why he employ that strategy against Lil Nog?

Black and broke. He loaded up on the +450 underdog.

[Luke]

Lil Nog out........

[poopoo333]

Lil Nog out........

Chael offered to step in.

(seriously)

@ShogunRua (https://twitter.com/ShogunRua) I HEAR BRAZILIAN CHICKEN IS OFF THE MENU. AMERICAN GANGSTER IS STILL AVAILABLE IF YOU WANT TO SEND YOUR WAITRESS OVER.

[MMA_scientist]

Chael/Shogun is a more interesting fight IMO.

[edman5555]

Chael should be able to win that.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Shogun will win. Curious on the line.

[SPX]

You think Shogun can stop the takedowns?

[zY|]

Shogun wins in the first round or he doesn't win.

[Thewisemann]

This will be decided on the mat. Shogun by sub or Sonnen by dec.

[edman5555]

This will be decided on the mat. Shogun by sub or Sonnen by dec.

This. I remember Shogun trying to stop Coleman from taking him down and sort of failing. Machida took him down a couple of times in their second fight.

[edman5555]

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/06/visa-issues-reportedly-scrap-sonnen-rua-at-ufc-161-jimmo-pokrajac-head-to-main

Sonnen is a felon so he can't get a visa to go to Brazil. Ryan Jimmo vs Igor Pokrajac is the main event. Jimmo should win that one.

[poopoo333]

^^it's in Canada breh

[Ludo]

What Jordan said.

[MMA_scientist]

You think Shogun can stop the takedowns?

Maybe. But I think he has a pretty good shot even if he can't stop the TD. Size helps quite a bit on TDs. I am not convinced Sonnen is going to be able to take down 205ers the same way he did at 185. But I think there is a good chance Shogun finds an opening at some point either way. That said, Shogun will probably gas out about 2 minutes in.

[Thewisemann]

I don't think the fight is happening. But if it does good chance Shogun subs him.

[SPX]

I need to see Shogun sub SOMEBODY before I start even really considering that part of his arsenal. He only has ONE submission win in his entire career.

[MMA_scientist]

I need to see Shogun sub SOMEBODY before I start even really considering that part of his arsenal. He only has ONE submission win in his entire career.

I agree. I wouldn't rely on a submission. I just think he may be able to sweep him or catch him coming in or something. I think he will figure it out. Hypothetically, of course, because the fight is not happening...

[poopoo333]

I think they are gonna try and make this fight headline the Boston card in August..the Fox Sports one. That means it will be a 5 round fight.

[edman5555]

Ill take chael in a five round fight.

[edman5555]

I am surprised at nelsons line. -260 to beat stipe micocic? I guess he could take roy down but I don't think roys wrestling is all that bad. I also like Jimmo to beat pokrajac. Another nice line at -250.

[Thewisemann]

Yea I just Hammered Nelson.

[Ludo]

Yea I just Hammered Nelson.

Negged for gay.

[edman5555]

Anyone see Miocic having a shot at outwrestling big country? I don't see him outstriking him...

[Luke]

Yea I just Hammered Nelson.


Ass, ear, bell button, or nose?

[edman5555]

Ass, ear, bell button, or nose?

Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. He slid it in between two fat rolls.

[Luke]

Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. He slid it in between two fat rolls.


Yuck, that's just gross edmann. There's probably lint, grease, and a peanut butter sandwich in between those things

[edman5555]

Yuck, that's just gross edmann. There's probably lint, grease, and a peanut butter sandwich in between those things

That's what's in his beard.

[edman5555]

Anyone think Shawn Jordan might be a bad matchup for Pat barry because of his speed,explosiveness and wrestling? I figure he might be able to get inside on barry and out grapple him.

[SPX]

Yeah, that could happen. I really don't know what to think of that fight. Probably staying away unless I can get either guy as a significant underdog.

[edman5555]

Same here.

[Thewisemann]

Damn I knew that was gonna happen

[edman5555]

Damn I knew that was gonna happen

What was going to happen.

Btw whatis the wiseman take on jimmo pokrajac?

[edman5555]

Anyone see miocic beating big countey?

[SPX]

Not really. I think the line on Roy is probably pretty well off. I'm sure I'll bet him.

[edman5555]

Full odds out.

[SPX]

I don't know that much about Pague but a quick look at his record tells me Jabouin should probably whoop dat ass.

[edman5555]

yeah ive been looking that one over and jab looks like the better fighter but i havent really seen them fight. i just read some play by plays.

i am also partial to john maguire.

[edman5555]

I read maguires record and the play by plays for his fights and he beat Justin Edwards and Demarques Johnson at 170. His fights against Riddle and Hathaway seemed somewhat competitive. He lost them both though.

His opponent mitch clarke fought cholish and looked decent for the first round. In fact I think he won it. After that he had what appeared to be an adrenaline dump. I think he even came out and said the jitters got to him. His second fight was against Anton Kuivanen who beat him by split decision. Kuivanen has a decent record. He won the first round against Michael Cheisa before getting tapped out. I am thinking he will look better than his first fight now that he has possibly shed the jitters and has some experience.

Maguire seems to be the better fighter.

I kinda like Jaboin because he seems to be somewhat well rounded, trains at tri star and going by what I have read he has a strong striking game. If Pague isn't really that great in any area jaboins striking game could be the deciding factor. I really have to watch these fights though. I haven't seen much.

Poopoo, you have an opinion on this?

[edman5555]

I am thinking Stipe has trouble controlling Roy with his wrestling and Roy probably catches his chin at some point but I am concerned that Stipe might be able to outpoint him for three rounds. Mix in a takedown or two and some boxing. He could probably do it but I'm not sure. He beat Joey Beltran doing that but I think Roy is a step up from Beltran. Probably more than one step up. Better wrestler with much more power in his hands and the same ability to take damage. Beltran was Stipes first fight in the octagon though.

After seeing Roy knock out Mitrione, Kongo and Herman in the first round its hard to think he wont catch Stipe at some point. Herman isn't really that great. His striking kinda stinks but he doesn't suck overall as a fighter. It is hard to get much from that fight because it was over so fast. His wins over Mitrione and Kongo are impressive though. Mitrione is a decent striker and so is Kongo. I remember him putting Kongo up against the cage as well.

Roys losses arent bad either. Werdum has looked really good. Mir isn't bad at all. Roy claimed to have the flu in that fight and I beleive him. Mir did handle him in that fight though.

Roy has been talking about how he is actually hiring trainers and investing his winnings into himself by actually having something resembling a professional camp. I think that means he should be steadily improving.

I guess the main thing that worries me is Stipes wrestling but Roys overall MMA experience/ability should cancel that out. Stipe is still kinda green. Anyways, Roy at -250 seems like a gift at this point but Stipe doesn't suck.

[edman5555]

Jimmo/ Pokrajac:

Jimmo has had some trouble with guys that werent amazing in the past. I heard the sokodjou fight was a robbery. Before that he had some close ones. He floored Perosh but he isn't exactly great on the feet. He probably coulda got the win against Te huna but ended up losing.

My concern with Pokrajac is he is a decent wrestler with a lot of power in his hands. That is what Te huna is and he just beat Jimmo. Granted Jimmo could have gotten the stoppage in that one and probably gassed himself out from trying for it.

Pokrajac got handled by Beltran and Stephan bonnar. I remember thinking the Maldanado fight was close and could have gone either way. Krystof Sozynski retired right after the loss to pokrajac so he probably wasn't as game as he has been in other fights and he was never really that good to begin with. He was beating Vinny Magalaes before he got tapped out according to what I read. He dropped Te huna if memory serves me.

Anyways he has some power in his hands and could land some takedowns. Tough call. I don't really like paying for Jimmo but he seems like he is the more technical striker and has decent takedown defense. Igor didn't really seem to take Maldanado down too too easily and his T3d is somewhat porous. Tough call.

Opinions?

[edman5555]

Pat barry/Shawn Jordan:

I think Pat barrys grappling still sucks but he is really dangerous on the feet which makes him harder to bet against. Jordan was a high school state wrestling champ and can do back flips so its safe to say he is athletic. I could see Jordan outwrestling him or Barry knocking him out.

Both Morecraft and Shane took Barry down IIRc and had him in bad positions.

I think russow gassed against Jordan after beating him for the first round.

This one is too close to call. No bet.

[edman5555]

Roys the only good bet I can see so far. Maybe Jaboin and Maguire.

I would bet woodley but I don't like the line. Shields didn't look so hot against Akiyama who doesn't really look so hot against anyone. Granted he had a tough string of opponents. He fought mostly two top ten guys and gave Leben a really good fight. I beleive he was winning that one.

I think Woodley could beat shields but shields is much more experienced and very crafty. Either way Woodley is probably a bad matchup for him. He has good wrestling and power in his hands. Shields hands are shit but you never know he could just go out there and lean him up against the wall for 15 fucking minutes. He could also catch a sub..

[SPX]

I went ahead and put a little bit on Shields. I also took Roy for enough to win a unit. Might put more on Roy.

I agree that Shields has looked a bit sketchy lately, but I've never really been sold on Woodley as a truly top welterweight. I'm not saying I'm particularly confident in either outcome, but I think we might find that Woodley is a bit out of his depth here.

[edman5555]

Yeah woodley seems to scrape by a lot. He did great in his last one but shields is really good at what he does. He might be worth a bet.

[edman5555]

how about krause versus stout? stout has faced a lot of top competition but he has a lot of close fights and i dont know shit about krause. I know he got beat by justin lawrence.

[Ludo]

I took Shields. Woodley blasted Hieron, but Shields has taken down better wrestlers consistently, and survived an H-bomb which Woodley cannot really produce. Woodley might be able to stave off the takedown but I don't see him really winning grappling exchanges or being able to press Shields against the fence.

[Thewisemann]

What was going to happen.

Btw whatis the wiseman take on jimmo pokrajac?
That was gonna get blazed for hammering country.
No real opinion but I think at current odds its pokrojac or nothing.

[Ludo]

I see no reason for Jimmo to be such a heavy favorite here. Pokrajac may not be top tier but neither is Jimmo in My opinion. Jimmo just got done being beaten by a guy who's skillset virtually matches Pokrajac's as well. Maybe Igor can't get the takedown early, but that doesn't mean he won't try and find other openings with it.

[edman5555]

yeah thats my thing as well. i do think jimmo is a better fighter and i do think te huna is better that pokrajac but i don't want to pay jimmos line.

[edman5555]

Actually igor is not as good as te huna. My evidence would be their performances against joey beltran. Te huna dominated him for three rounds and beltran beat igor 30-27.

[SPX]

I like Jimmo, but I thought he lost to Sokoudjou just a few years ago. So really, the line is pretty fucking crazy to me.

[Ludo]

I realize Igor isn't as talented as Te Huna, but the skillset is virtually the same. Jimmo obviously has problems with guys who can mix up heavy hands and wrestling, and unless he can tag Igor coming in and actually finish it he very well could lose the fight.

[SPX]

Anyone looked at the Pierson/Robertson fight yet? Pierson has looked pretty good against everyone who's not top 10 in the division.

[edman5555]

pierson isnt bad but either is robertson.

[SPX]

I guess I'll need to watch some tape. I really don't know anything about Robertson.

[edman5555]

he is a d1 wrestler.

[MMA_scientist]

Just now saw that Shields is +160. I was thinking I might bet Woodley, but I was operating under the assumption he was going to be a dog. I will definitely take Shields at +160.

[edman5555]

I think the dog has value either side. Shields is hard to underestimate. I wouldn't be suprised if he could pull a sub on woodley, or outwrestle him for a close decision. Woodley tends to gas in round three IIRC. Jake has had the same issue at 170 though.

[edman5555]

I am thinking about placing fairly decent sized bets on Roy nelson, john maguire and maybe jimmo and then doing some parlays with them. I think they all win.

Jimmo just stated in an interview that he went into the te huna fight with an injury from training camp and thats why his cardio sucked.

Jimmo comes from a high level karate background like machida does. He has always had that sort of reserved point fighting style but he doesn't really seem to get hit a lot. I think he is bigger and stronger than Pokrajac as well. Pok's wrestling doesn't seem to be overwhelming either.

I also took Krause by decision at 5.5 to 1 for .33u. Seemed like a good deal. He will be a lot larger than Stout.

Maguire is pretty good. He fought at 185 before. He even fought Tom "kong" watson and gave him a good fight, he took him down for half the fight before getting tko'd. He is working with Mike Dolce to make 155. He said he only had to cut something like 6-7 pounds to make welterweight. I think he is a really tough guy and a good grappler. I have to watch some tape on him though. He did well at welterweight and his opponent hasn't really done that well at lightweight and is coming off a long layoff.

I can't watch tape until i can go downstairs where my computer with windows is. I will probably have to crawl down the fucking stairs because of my legs but I will do it. I am committed to watching tape now. I will be off from work for a couple of months so I am trying to make the best of it.

Anyways, Stipe Miocic vs Roy Nelson. Anyone think I am crazy for going big on Roy here?

[SPX]

Crawl down the stairs . . . damn. How did you get UP the stairs in the first place? And what kind of computer are you using that doesn't have Windows? You on a tablet or something? Or are you one of those Mac fags?

As for Roy/Miocic, like I said before, I think Roy will take it and would be pretty surprised if he doesn't. Roy can't beat the top guys in the division but he beats most everyone else. I have about 2.5u on him. Might put more.

[Svino]

I like Shields at dog odds quite a bit. I bet Akiyama over him because I thought great TDD would beat Shields, only to have Shields win solidly on the feet. It could happen here, too. His striking has been getting a lot better. Woodley is no Ellenberger.

[edman5555]

I didnt see Shields vs Akiyama but the play by plays gave it to Akiyama 29-28 if memory serves me correctly. Shields won it 30-27. I guess I should probably watch that. Either way I think Woodley is overrated. He usually gasses at the end of the fight and tries to wall and stall. He is almost kind of like shields ironically. He probably is more explosive standing but I think Shields has that extra added edge when it comes to submissions. I don't know if he can make the work here. Either way he isnt a bad bet at plus odds.

I just watched Jimmo versus Sokodjou. It was in a ring which is smaller and probably helped sokodjou with the wrestling. It was probably the most boring fight I have ever seen. Jimmo seems to have turned it up since coming into the ufc. I remember him mentioning something about trying to bring it a little harder in the ufc. In mfc he was just a karate counterstriker. Kinda like Machida back in the day. Thats what makes me want to beleive Jimmo is going to bust out with some awesomeness at some point. He is just like Machida in that he comes from a high level karate background but he is missing the Black belt in bjj that machida has.

Again, Jimmo claims an injury during his camp stopped him from being able to train and caused him to gas against Te huna. I think I will end up betting Jimmo, hopefully i can get a decent line on him. Igors brawler style in dangerous but Jimmo is not the type of guy to get involved in a brawl. He is a karate based counterstriker for the most part. That seems like a good style for fighting a brawler. I am hoping 5dimes will make the lines a little bit better by fight day like they usually do. If I can get jimmo close to -200 that would be awesome.

[edman5555]

I like Shields at dog odds quite a bit. I bet Akiyama over him because I thought great TDD would beat Shields, only to have Shields win solidly on the feet. It could happen here, too. His striking has been getting a lot better. Woodley is no Ellenberger.

Do you have an opinion on jimmo/pokrajac svino?

[poopoo333]

I like:

Shawn Jordan
Stipe Miocic for a small play at those odds
Kenny Robertson small
James Krause (fading Stout, he sucks)
Alexis Davis

[edman5555]

Pierson just made a statement about how he feels he is finally getting over the ufc jitters and coming into his own as a fighter. Feeling comfortable in the octagon and all that. I think Kenny obviously has a shot and dog odds are nice but I thought I'd let ya know. Pierson could look better than usual. He's a good greco wrestler as well. Kennys american college wrestling might be better though. I have no idea.

[edman5555]

Rashad looked really good at the weigh ins.

[SPX]

I'd really be curious to know if how a fighter looks at the weighs in has any correlation with their performance.

[edman5555]

Well of course it does. It means they have been training hard. It doesn't necessarily mean they will win though.

[edman5555]

Looking over Hendos record I have to say that him almost beating Machida after over a year off is pretty good.

[SPX]

What I'm saying is that I can't remember a lot of cases in the past where it's really had a significant correlation to the end result, except specifically in cases where a fighter misses weight.

[edman5555]

I get your point. I was just stating it can have an effect. In this case it could mean Rashad is taking this a little more seriously and we can expect a more enthusiastic performance than he put on for the lil nog fight.

[SPX]

I hope so. Even though I have money on Hendo.

Rashad doesn't want three losses in a row. I still just don't even know what happened in the Lil' Nog fight.

[edman5555]

To wiseman -

I just saw your 17 unit bet on Roy.

Why so confident?

[edman5555]

I am liking Hendo at plus 3.5 points -200.

Rashad isnt knocking him out or subbing him unless he gets really lucky. His best bet is to dive in for takedowns and hold Dan down. He might be able to do that. I could see him doing that. It kinda depends on Dan. I think if he actually tried to defend the takedown better he could do a good job.

Probably worth playing. What do you guys think?

[Thewisemann]

I think he knocks him out. Stipe was knocked out by Struve and rocked by fucking Defries. But, i hate that I bet THAT much. I was drunk after my cousins wedding when I bet the extra 11 units.

[edman5555]

LOL ok. Good luck man. I hope you win. I will probably be betting him.

He also gassed and couldn't take down joey beltran in round three of their fight. I spent some time last night looking for his amateur boxing record. It looks like he only had three boxing matches and he lost one of them.

[Vandelay]

Cant find any videos on mitch clarke. ugh.

[Thewisemann]

Yea originally I planned to do enough to win 2.5u and do the parlay for 5u.

[edman5555]

Yea originally I planned to do enough to win 2.5u and do the parlay for 5u.

on who? Maguire and Roy?

[edman5555]

Cant find any videos on mitch clarke. ugh.

I watched Mitch clarke vs john cholsih. Clarke did alright in round one, he kinda outstruck cholish. Round two was more or less him gassing, getting taken down and pounded out.

I think he stuffed cholish in round one but i have to say cholish's takedowns looked like absolute shit at the time. I think it was his ufc debut and he was really nervous.

[Vandelay]

Im undecided on if I will touch the bet. I think Maguire is a solid fighter but definitely one that needs to get the fight to the ground.

[Svino]

I'd really be curious to know if how a fighter looks at the weighs in has any correlation with their performance.

Unless there's something extreme going on, I'm rather skeptical.

[Vandelay]

Weigh ins are strictly for seeing if anyone is emaciated. Its almost a guaranteed bet the opposite way if someone shows up like that

[Svino]

Do you have an opinion on jimmo/pokrajac svino?

Not a strong one. Jimmo was the kind of fighter I like a lot before he came to the UFC (even if his opposition wasn't that great). But he's fought very differently in his last two fights and now I'm not sure what to make of him. I worry that he's fighting to impress rather than win, and it makes me anxious to bet him as a favorite. I do think he should win, though.

[edman5555]

Im undecided on if I will touch the bet. I think Maguire is a solid fighter but definitely one that needs to get the fight to the ground.

Mitch Clarke was a high school wrestler that also wrestled in college in Canada for a year or two. I think his jiu jitsu might be kinda week though.

[SPX]

Not a strong one. Jimmo was the kind of fighter I like a lot before he came to the UFC (even if his opposition wasn't that great). But he's fought very differently in his last two fights and now I'm not sure what to make of him. I worry that he's fighting to impress rather than win, and it makes me anxious to bet him as a favorite. I do think he should win, though.

After thinking about it some more I remembered that Pokerjack got beat up by the Mexecutioner. And that convinced me that Jimmo should at least be the fave, though I still think his line is a little high.

[Luke]

Poopoo, why in gods name would you bet so much on Shawn Jordan? Barry is only a sprawl or two from ko'ing that guy with ease.

And if you say wrestler vs striker I swear I'll neg you so hard sideloaded will feel it

[edman5555]

Yeah he was basically out wrestled/ out clinched along the fence for three rounds. I remember being surprised because I didn't think of Beltran as that good a wrestler and I thought of Pokrajac as a better wrestler. Not that crazy though, Stephan Bonnar shut him out for three rounds. He outwrestled him too. I thought his fight against Fabio Maldanado was very close too. It could have gone either way. He wasn't able to run a wrestling clinic on him either. Kingsbury and Hollett were able to score a lot of takedowns on Maldanado and they aren't even wrestlers.

My conclusion is that Igors wrestling is not really that great. He is dangerous though because he is willing to swing wildly and can connect. I lean Jimmo because in over twenty fights nobody has been able to put him away or significantly outwrestle him. Te huna hits like a ton of bricks and has better wrestling than Igor (Te huna manhandled Beltran) and he had trouble with Jimmo. Granted Jimmo landed that head kick right off the bat and it could have been a lot different if he hadn't. On the other hand Jimmo took the fight after a training camp that was shitty due to an injury. Te huna probably would not have won if Jimmo didn't gas. Jimmo probably should have got a 10-8 in round one as well. Jimmo also took a shitload of punishment in the second half of that fight and didn't get knocked out. My conclusion is that Jimmo has a good chin. Good chin + great defensive striking should make a hard night for Igor IMO. It all adds up on paper....


So Igor by TKO via wild haymaker he throws while completely gassed out.

[SPX]

Good breakdown. I thought Maldonado should've won the decision even though, if I remember correctly, I had money on Igot.

I'm thinking I might throw Jimmo into a parlay with . . . someone. Not sure who. Maybe . . . Pierson. Hmm. . .

[poopoo333]

Poopoo, why in gods name would you bet so much on Shawn Jordan? Barry is only a sprawl or two from ko'ing that guy with ease.

And if you say wrestler vs striker I swear I'll neg you so hard sideloaded will feel it

I like his last name.

[Svino]

I like his last name.

::lmao::

[edman5555]

I am like Pierson too. He has fought a few wrestlers and done well. Robertson might be able to beat him but I feel like Pierson puts it together better.

[Luke]

I like his last name.

Awesome. I hope you still like it when he's flat of his back.

[Svino]

I am like Pierson too. He has fought a few wrestlers and done well. Robertson might be able to beat him but I feel like Pierson puts it together better.

Pierson's line is climbing like mad. If I can get him at +odds, I'll arb out my current Robertson bet.

[edman5555]

Who do you think wins it?

[SPX]

Is it just me or does this shit seems like it starts late as fuck?

[Luke]

Is it just me or does this shit seems like it starts late as fuck?

Its usual time.

[SPX]

We usually don't have to wait until 5:00 (my time) for prelims to start.

[Svino]

Who do you think wins it?

It seems like a coin-toss to me, which is why I'll take either guy at + odds.

[SPX]

Hendo at +135? Damn, wish I had waited. I thought he would become the favorite.

[Svino]

It seems like a coin-toss to me, which is why I'll take either guy at + odds.

I'll also add, this fight and some others on this card could be good for live betting. We might get a good idea of how the fight will play out early.

[edman5555]

Woodleys line has gone to shit. Shields lookin good. I'll probably miss a lot of the live betting. Having a big family dinner tonight.

[edman5555]

Tempted to bet Jordan if his line keeps creeping up. Barry still sucks on the ground.

[Vandelay]

Yea i will probably throw some on Jordan as well.

[edman5555]

Anyone think Jaboin is a good bet? I was thinking about betting him earlier but I never got around to watching tape. I know Jaboin is pretty decent and Pagues record is really devoid of any solid wins despite Jared Papazian. Jared did almost beat Mike Easton though and hes pretty talented. Tough call..

[SPX]

Poopoo, why in gods name would you bet so much on Shawn Jordan? Barry is only a sprawl or two from ko'ing that guy with ease.

And if you say wrestler vs striker I swear I'll neg you so hard sideloaded will feel it

Agreed. Jordan could outwrestle him but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Barry blast him all the way to Mars. Seems like a risky decision to hitch almost all of your horses to him.

[Luke]

I'm surprises it was a punch and not GnP that beat Barry. Nelson, you blow.

[edman5555]

Nelson is a fat ass. If he wasn't such a fat ass he might have had a shot. Though he did beat Cro cop in round three.

[edman5555]

Two things I learned last night.

The plus 3.5 points option 5dimes offers is really good. I was reluctant to use it for a while but now I am starting to appreciate it. I used it twice last night on Dan henderson (-195 and as low as -160 at times) and Jake shields. Both were great options because they were just as good as their opponents. Jake was able to win his fight without the points. Both had great chins and good submission defense. I am hoping to find more bets like this on future cards.

Live betting: There were more than a few great opportunities last night. I made most of my money on it. Jake shields was at +200 at the end of round two on 5dimes. Tyron was getting tired from all the clinching and typically gasses in the third round. Great opportunity. I won close to 5 units on it.

Rosi Sexton plus 6.5 points during round three. This would have cashed had I bet it. Wish I had. Another great bet I missed.

Both options have a lot of available opportunity. I am going to try hard to find more options like this in the future. Good luck everyone.

[Svino]

Yeah, last night was really good live. I made about 10u, there. You mentioned a couple good lines. Another was the fact that Miocic was available at great odds pretty much the whole fight. He was +100 and then only -130 *well* past the point it became clear he was dominating the fight. (I also lost a chunk of money on another line I still think was actually good: Hendo at +140 at the end of round 1).

Really the live-betting situation lives or dies on the number of decisions, especially main-card decisions. Last card with all the submissions, I was really lucky to only lose about 2u. But overall, it's very good, and the bet limits are almost a non-factor now. It used to be you were capped at bets to win 1k, but now it will usually let you bet 1k or 2k no matter the odds, so I think it will let you bet, say, $2,000 to win $180,000 on the draw at +9000. I keep thinking that someday there is going to be an early point deduction and they are going to fuck up bad.

Question: Would anyone be interested in having something like a live-betting teamspeak channel? I sometimes find it hard to type in chat and bet at the same time.

[edman5555]

Yeah, last night was really good live. I made about 10u, there. You mentioned a couple good lines. Another was the fact that Miocic was available at great odds pretty much the whole fight. He was +100 and then only -130 *well* past the point it became clear he was dominating the fight. (I also lost a chunk of money on another line I still think was actually good: Hendo at +140 at the end of round 1).

Really the live-betting situation lives or dies on the number of decisions, especially main-card decisions. Last card with all the submissions, I was really lucky to only lose about 2u. But overall, it's very good, and the bet limits are almost a non-factor now. It used to be you were capped at bets to win 1k, but now it will usually let you bet 1k or 2k no matter the odds, so I think it will let you bet, say, $2,000 to win $180,000 on the draw at +9000. I keep thinking that someday there is going to be an early point deduction and they are going to fuck up bad.

Question: Would anyone be interested in having something like a live-betting teamspeak channel? I sometimes find it hard to type in chat and bet at the same time.

That would be awesome. I thought about it before but I have no idea how to do it.

[Svino]

That would be awesome. I thought about it before but I have no idea how to do it.

I don't actually know how to do it either, but I could look into it.

[edman5555]

I don't actually know how to do it either, but I could look into it.

That would be awesome. I like your idea of a draw on the point deduction. I could see them missing that.

[mike]

I don't actually know how to do it either, but I could look into it.

that would be great altho my accent sucks (im vietnamese and never really learned to pronounce words the right way even though ive been living here for a long time). lol i have no problem writing tho.
also bmaker was gay last night. they used +2.5 on point instead of +3.5.

[edman5555]

That point deduction idea is a really good one. I am curious how often it happens. It is something to really be ready for.

[edman5555]

Well I found some stats for 2012. There were two draws. Neither of them came by way of point deduction. It's still a good idea in my book. Can't beat 90 to 1 odds.

[Svino]

Well I found some stats for 2012. There were two draws. Neither of them came by way of point deduction. It's still a good idea in my book. Can't beat 90 to 1 odds.

There aren't really that many point deductions. The last draw like that I can think of was Kongo / Browne. 10-8 Rounds can be considered, too, especially if the loser of that round doesn't look totally finished, or the winner looks gassed. Of course, there's the added risk that the judges will call it 10-9. (I bet the draw live on Edgar / Maynard 3 after the first round, but obviously it didn't work out.)

[edman5555]

It's going to be tough to remember to bet draw next time i see a point deduction.

[Luke]

I hit a draw on a boxing match a couple years ago, but its was only 33 to 1

[edman5555]

I hit a draw on a boxing match a couple years ago, but its was only 33 to 1

how much?

[Luke]

.25 to win 8 something

[Thewisemann]

I hit Edgar maynard 2 $1 to win $100

[poopoo333]

Downloaded the card since I missed it last week. Watching Stipe/Nelson now. It was evident after the first minute Stipe was going to win that imo.

I was confident in Shawn Jordan...but did not expect the fight to play like that. I was under the impression he would wear Barry out with wrestling/pushing him against the fence.

[edman5555]

Downloaded the card since I missed it last week. Watching Stipe/Nelson now. It was evident after the first minute Stipe was going to win that imo.

I was confident in Shawn Jordan...but did not expect the fight to play like that. I was under the impression he would wear Barry out with wrestling/pushing him against the fence.


Supposedly a punch landed in barrys eye.

[Luke]

Downloaded the card since I missed it last week. Watching Stipe/Nelson now. It was evident after the first minute Stipe was going to win that imo.

I was confident in Shawn Jordan...but did not expect the fight to play like that. I was under the impression he would wear Barry out with wrestling/pushing him against the fence.

Since you predicted the outcome wrong, your bet doesnt count on the tracker::handshake::