5-30-13

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::clap::

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Pacers at Heat: What bettors need to know

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7.5, 185)

Series is tied 2-2.

The Indiana Pacers made the necessary adjustments on the interior to keep LeBron James out of the paint and ended up evening the Eastern Conference finals at two games apiece. It will be the Miami Heat’s turn to make adjustments when they host Game 5 Thursday. After getting torched in the post by James and letting role players like Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen beat them in Game 3, the Pacers tightened things in Game 4.

Roy Hibbert and David West were quick to help on James, who did not get a chance to settle into the paint and ended up fouling out with under a minute left and the Heat trailing Tuesday. The superstar was called for his fifth foul in the paint with 1:30 left and was then caught slightly moving on a screen 34 seconds later. “I didn‘t believe it was an offensive foul,” James said. “I was going to set a screen and I feel like I was stationary, and (Dwyane Wade) rejected the pick and roll and Lance (Stephenson) actually ran into me.” Indiana did not allow Miami to score the rest of the way.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana was outscored in the paint in Game 3 but built up a 50-32 advantage in that area in Game 4 while outrebounding the Heat 49-30. Roy Hibbert led the way with 23 points and 12 rebounds while anchoring the defense on the interior. “Not one guy in that locker room didn’t believe we were going to win this game,” Hibbert told reporters. “We showed fortitude and we picked each other up.” Stephenson took over some of the defensive responsibilities on James and added 20 points while attacking the paint. The Pacers let a nine-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter but recovered to control the final minutes. “We’ve shown a great deal of resolve all year,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said. “This is the first time we’ve faced adversity this playoff season. Our guys rose to the challenge to start the game, and then when Miami came and took the lead, they rose to the challenge again.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Indiana did exactly what it needed to do to beat Miami by controlling the interior and simply out-muscling the Heat in Game 4. James got little help from his supporting cast, as Wade looked hampered by his knee injury and Chris Bosh struggled to 1-for-6 from the floor. “In the playoffs, on the road, you’re up by three, handful of minutes to go,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Again, the way we are, we pride ourselves in closing out games, and we weren’t able to do it.” Wade was called for traveling in the final minute after James had fouled out and Bosh missed a 3-point attempt as the shot clock was winding down with the Heat up by two points and less than four minutes remaining. The Pacers got the rebound, tied it on the next possession and never looked back.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 overall.
* Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Heat have totaled 11 turnovers in the last two games.

2. Hibbert has recorded at least 20 points and 10 rebounds five times in the playoffs. He reached those marks seven times total in the regular season.

3. Miami went 37-4 at home during the regular season but has suffered two of its three playoff losses in its own building.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/30/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 851-404 (.678)
ATS: 667-619 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1664-1576 (.514)
Over/Under: 662-624 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 917-841 (.522)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game #5
MIAMI 97, Indiana 90

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Series Shifts to Miami Thursday for Pivotal Game 5

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7.5, Total: 185

The Pacers look to go up 3-2 with another road win over the Heat in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals at American Airlines Arena on Thursday night.

Indiana came out flat in Game 3 and was crushed 114-96, but in Game 4 the club gave Miami everything it had and prevailed by a score of 99-92. C Roy Hibbert led the way with 23 points and 12 boards, while LeBron James picked up a questionable sixth foul with under a minute remaining. So far in the playoffs, the Pacers are 11-5 ATS (69%), including 3-1 ATS in the East Finals. Although they won Game 2 on the road, they have not been a good road bet this season, going 24-24 ATS and 22-26 SU. However, the Heat are just 7-6 ATS this postseason and 24-24 ATS at home, despite a 42-6 SU mark. Miami has been resilient after losses this season though, going 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS (67%) and outscoring these teams by 11.7 PPG. Indiana has struggled to string together win streaks, going 32-26 SU and 27-31 ATS (47%) following an SU win this season.

The Pacers' offense continues to be a roller coaster. Although the team has scored between 96 and 102 points in all four games in this series, the team has shot 44.6% FG, 50.0% FG, 39.7% FG and 50.0% FG in the East Finals. But the defense was also superb on Tuesday, holding Miami to a series-low 39.0% shooting. C Roy Hibbert (22.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG in series) posted his third straight double-double by making 10-of-16 shots and grabbing six offensive rebounds. Hibbert is now averaging 16.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 2.1 BPG throughout the entire postseason. The second leading scorer for Indiana was SG Lance Stephenson (11.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG in series), who continued his breakout postseason with 20 points (9-of-15 FG) and five rebounds in 41 minutes. He has 15.0 PPG on 48% FG in two wins this series, but just 7.0 PPG on 20% FG (4-of-20) in the two defeats. Stephenson led all players with a +14 rating on Tuesday. PG George Hill (15.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.8 RPG in series) also played a strong game on Tuesday, scoring 19 points (9-of-10 FT) for the second straight game, while also contributing six assists and five rebounds. Hill was doing a great job of getting into the lane where he was able to draw fouls at will. PF David West (18.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG in series) had his second straight double-double with 14 points (5-of-11 FG) and 12 rebounds in Game 4, but the Pacers could definitely afford to get him some more touches in the post. SF Paul George (18.5 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.0 RPG in series) is going to need to find his shot in this series if the Pacers are really going to have a chance to pull this thing out. After making 3-of-10 shots in Game 3, George struggled again with just 12 points (4-of-10 FG, 0-for-4 threes) on Tuesday. He did have his best defensive game though, pulling down eight rebounds and two blocks, both of which were series highs.

After making at least 46% of their FG tries for seven straight contests, the Heat shot horribly in Game 4, making just 39.0% FG, which led to them getting crushed on the boards 49-30. They were also dominated in terms of points in the paint, where they were outscored 50-32. The one positive is that Miami made 24-of-27 free throws (89%) and committed just six turnovers, giving the team a total of 11 turnovers in the past two games combined. Despite the poor shooting, the Heat were in position to win Game 4 late. SF LeBron James (28.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.3 APG in series) led the Heat in scoring with 24 points (8-of-18 FG, 4-of-7 threes) while adding six rebounds, five assists and three blocks, but he also fouled out late in the game on a moving screen violation. It was just the second time in 128 career playoff games that he fouled out, but not before tallying his seventh straight 20-point game. PF Chris Bosh (14.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG in series) had his worst game of the playoff so far, scoring just seven points (1-of-6 FG, 1-of-3 threes) with three rebounds in 30 minutes. For the series, Bosh has more fouls (14) than total rebounds (13). SG Dwyane Wade (16.8 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.8 RPG in series) also struggled from the field on his way to a 16-point (5-of-15 FG) and 6-assist night. He is still clearly bothered by a knee injury, as he was limping at parts during the game. Wade averaged 21.2 PPG on 52% FG in the regular season, but has just 14.3 PPG on 46% FG in the postseason, failing to score 20 points in each of the past 11 contests. One player who stepped up for Miami was PG Mario Chalmers (12.5 PPG, 3.0 APG in series), who finished the game with 20 points (6-of-14 FG) after hitting all eight of his free-throw attempts in the game. He also had his second turnover-free game, which is a big reason why he posted a team-best +11 rating on Tuesday. The Heat really could have used a big game from SG Ray Allen (6.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG in series) off the bench on a night where their starters struggled. Allen, however, was just as cold as the starters, as he finished the game with a very inefficient 11 points (4-of-13 FG, 2-of-7 threes) in 32 minutes. But he did lead the team in rebounding with seven boards. Reserve SF Chris Andersen (8.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG in series) still hasn't missed a shot in five straight games (15-of-15 FG), but he also failed to attempt a shot in Game 4, grabbing a mere two rebounds and posting a game-worst rating of minus-11 in his 19 minutes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What series sweep says about Spurs' NBA title chances
By JASON LOGAN

The San Antonio Spurs’ run to the 2013 NBA Finals has them in elite company. They are just the seventh team to sweep their opponents in a conference championship in the past 22 years, joining the likes of Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaquille O’Neal and, themselves.

The Spurs have followed in the footsteps of the franchise’s 1999 NBA title team, which rolled the Portland Trail Blazers in four straight games in the Western Conference finals before defeating the New York Knicks 4-1 to win San Antonio’s first of four NBA Championships.

The other five teams to sweep their conference championship were the 2003 New Jersey Nets, 2001 Los Angeles Lakers, 1998 Utah Jazz, and the 1996 and 1991 Chicago Bulls. All but two have gone on to win the NBA Championship.

Only the 2003 Nets, who swept the Detroit Pistons in the East finals and lost to San Antonio in the NBA Finals, and the 1998 Jazz, who defeated the Lakers in four games in the West finals and lost to Jordan and the Bulls in the finals, have failed to parlay that momentum into a title.

In fact, those two teams are the only ones out of the six that finished with an ATS record below .500 in the NBA Finals. New Jersey went 1-5 ATS versus San Antonio while Utah finished 2-4 ATS against Chicago. The four championship teams among that group were a combined 14-7 ATS in their finals appearances - 2001 Los Angeles 3-2 ATS, 1999 San Antonio 4-1 ATS, 1996 Chicago 3-3 ATS, 1991 Chicago 4-1 ATS.

This year’s edition of the Spurs brings a six-game winning streak into the NBA Finals, where they’ll face either the Miami Heat or Indiana Pacers. That six-game run (5-1 ATS) is tied for the fourth-longest winning streak heading into the NBA Finals since 1991.

San Antonio is in line with the 1998 Jazz (6-0 ATS), 1996 Bulls (3-3 ATS) and 1991 Bulls (5-1 ATS) in terms of momentum. The 2001 Lakers posted 11 straight wins (10-1 ATS) heading into the title round before dropping Game 1 to the Philadelphia 76ers. The 2003 Nets (7-1-2 ATS) and 1999 Spurs (7-3 ATS) each took 10-game winning streaks into the finals.

Three of those winning streaks came to a halt in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and just two of those six teams managed to cover the spread in the opening game of the finals – 1999 Spurs and 1996 Bulls. San Antonio is current 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in Game 1 of a series this postseason.

Oddsmakers opened the Spurs as possible +230 series underdogs versus Miami (-270) and as possible -250 favorites versus Indiana (+210) in the NBA Finals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Memorial Tournament: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour heads north to Dublin, Ohio and Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament.

This is the final tuneup for most prior to the U.S. Open in two weeks as a majority of players will be taking next week off. This is the “Course that Jack Built” and Nicklaus has been the host of this event since 1976. Even though his tournament has not gotten as big as he had always hoped, there is usual a very strong field.

Seven of the OWGR Top 10, 23 of 30 and 35 of the Top 50 are in play this week as well as nine of the Top 10 in the FedEx Cup Standings. Tigers Woods (+240) is the huge favorite to defend his title. He has won here five times and has already won four times on tour this year, including his last start at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Justin Rose (+2,500) is having a great season even though he has yet to win. He has three Top 10s including two Top 5s and, while he’s coming off his first missed cut of the season at THE PLAYERS Championship, he has had ample time to rest. He won this event in 2010 by three shots over Rickie Fowler, thanks to a Sunday 66 and followed that up with a solo eighth last year.

Luke Donald (+3,000) missed the cut at the BMW PGA Championship last week but that could work in his favor. He has been out of the Top 25 only once on American soil this year and has done well at Muirfield, finishing 12th in 2012, T7 in 2011, T14 in 2009 and T6 in 2008 - his last four starts there. His last big win in the U.S. was the Accenture Match Play in 2011 so he’s due.

Jason Day (+4,000) is having a solid season as he has yet to miss a cut and has four Top-10 finishes, including a solo third at the Masters. Playing against marquee competition does not faze him. He took the week off after the Nelson and, while his best finish here is a T27, times have changed, He now lives in the area and he is a member at Muirfield, so his course knowledge has only gotten better.

Because of all the big names in the field, Rickie Fowler (+5,000) is getting excellent odds that would make for a huge payday. Admittedly, he’s off his game but it’s interesting to note that when he won the Wells Fargo last year, we wasn’t playing particularly that great either. That was the third of three straight Top 5s before a T52 at the Memorial. But prior to that, he finished T22 and solo second.

For the long-shot pick, we will go with Matt Every (+10,000). He’s been all over the map this year but he has two things going for him: After a missed cut at the Byron Nelson, he logged a season best T4 at Colonial last week, so his recent form is half of the strategy for a long-shot pick. The other thing we like about Every is course success. He finished T6 in his first start at Muirfield last year.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the Memorial Tournament (all for one unit)

Justin Rose (+2,500)
Luke Donald (+3,000)
Jason Day (+4,000)
Rickie Fowler (+5,000)
Matt Every (+10,000)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Woods Favored to Win Another Memorial
by Steve Bennett

Tees Off: Thursday, May 30
Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, OH
Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds

Tiger Woods 9-to-4
Rory McIlroy 15-to-1
Adam Scott 20-to-1
Matt Kuchar 20-to-1
Lee Westwood 20-to-1
Justin Rose 25-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 25-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 30-to-1
Keegan Bradley 30-to-1
Luke Donald 30-to-1
Dustin Johnson 40-to-1
Webb Simpson 40-to-1
Jason Day 40-to-1
Jim Furyk 40-to-1
Nick Watney 50-to-1
Bo Van Pelt 50-to-1
Zach Johnson 50-to-1
Hunter Mahan 50-to-1
Billy Horschel 50-to-1
Rickie Fowler 50-to-1
Bill Haas 60-to-1
Kevin Streelman 60-to-1
Henrik Stenson 60-to-1
Ernie Els 60-to-1
Bubba Watson 60-to-1
12 golfers 80-to-1
7 golfers 100-to-1
3 golfers 125-to-1
Ryo Ishikawa 150-to-1
Guan Tianlang 500-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 5-to-1

All the headliners will come out this week for the Memorial, one of the biggest non-major tournaments of the year. Tiger Woods is the defending champion of this tournament, but last year's event might also be remembered for Woods' playing partner on Sunday, Rickie Fowler, who compiled a -5 score through three rounds before shooting an 84 to close the tournament.

Here’s a Look at This Week’s Best Bets.

Golfers to Watch

Tiger Woods (9/4): Woods enters the week as a heavy, heavy favorite as the defending champion and once again the best golfer in the world by a wide margin. He’s won five times in Dublin, and won The Players in his last start.
Justin Rose (25/1): Rose has slumped of late, finishing T50 across the pond in last week’s BMW PGA Championship, and missing the cut in The Players. His track record in Dublin is excellent though, including his first victory stateside in 2010. He had a solo eighth here a year ago.

Jim Furyk (40/1): Furyk won here in 2002, and since then he has three top-10's at The Memorial. He finished T13 here a year ago and should be in contention again this week.

Rory McIlroy (15/1): McIlroy’s disappointing year continued last week with a missed cut at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour, but as usual, he has too much talent to ignore completely. He had gone top-10 in his other two May starts. He finished T10 here in 2010 and T5 in 2011 before a missed cut last year.

Luke Donald (30/1): He’s coming off a stunning missed cut at the BMW PGA Championship in England, a tournament he ran away with last year. But Donald had gone top-25 in four of his previous five starts, including a couple of top-5's, and he annually contends in Dublin. He has a string of four straight top-15 finishes at The Memorial.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- McCarthy is 2-0, 0.36 in his last three starts.
-- Wood is 2-1, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- San Diego won last four Cashner starts (3-0, 2.96). Zito is
-- Oakland won last three Griffin starts (2-0, 3.86). Giants are 6-0 in Zito home starts (3-0, 1.38).
-- Locke is 4-0, 1.67 in his last seven starts.

-- Phillies are 6-1 when Pettibone starts (3-0, 3.21).
-- Bronx won both of Nuno's starts (1-0, 1.64).
-- Bailey is 2-0, 1.64 in his last three starts.
-- Atlanta won last four Minor starts (3-0, 1.33).

-- Rays are 9-1 when Moore starts (2-0, 2.37 in last three). Nolasco is 1-0, 1.15 in his last couple starts.
-- Walters allowed two runs in six IP in his first '13 start.
-- Nicasio is 1-0, 1.64 in his last two starts.
-- Vargas is 3-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Grimm is 2-3, 5.46 in his last five starts.
-- Peavy is 5-1, 2.37 in his last seven starts.
-- FHernandez is 0-2, 9.28 in his last two starts.
-- Fister is 1-2, 5.86 in his last five starts.

-- Nationals lost last three Haren starts (0-2, 6.00). FGarcia is 1-2, 5.66 in his last four starts.
-- Gee is 0-2, 9.35 in his last three starts.
-- Kazmir is 0-1, 7.62 in his last three starts.
-- Dickey is 2-4, 5.52 in his last seven starts.

-- Lohse is 0-4, 4.91 in his last five starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-3, 8.38 in his last three starts. Wacha is making MLB debut; he was
-- Astros lost last five Harrell starts (0-4, 8.74).
-- Lilly is 0-1, 6.08 in three starts this season.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- McCarthy 4-10; Grimm 4-8
-- Peavy 1-9; Wood 1-10
-- FHernandez 2-11; Cashner 3-7
-- Griffin 1-10; Zito 3-10 (3 of last 3)
-- Fister 2-10; Locke 3-10

-- Morales 0-0; Pettibone 0-7
-- Haren 1-10; FGarcia 2-5
-- Gee 2-10; Nuno 0-2
-- Bailey 2-10; Kazmir 2-7
-- Dickey 4-11; Minor 3-10

-- Moore 4-10 (4 of last 5); Nolasco 4-11
-- Lohse 3-9; Walters 0-1
-- Guthrie 1-10; Wacha 0-0
-- Harrell 1-11; Nicasio 5-10
-- Lilly 2-3; Vargas 0-10

Totals
-- Over is 11-2-1 in Baltimore's last fourteen games.
-- Seven of last eleven Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Kazmir starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Kansas City games stayed under the total.

-- Eight of last ten Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- 23 of last 30 Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Griffin's last five starts.
-- Under is 7-2-2 in FHernandez starts.

-- Five of last seven Minor starts went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Pettibone starts.
-- Nine of Mets' last thirteen games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-3 in White Sox' last seven games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Vargas starts.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 12 of their last 15 games. Detroit won six of its last nine.
-- Reds won 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Twins won four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals won 21 of their last 27 games.
-- Rays won their last four games, scoring 28 runs.
-- A's won 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Atlanta won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Phillies are 10-6 in their last sixteen games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Mets won their last four games, allowing eight runs.
-- White Sox are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Angels won nine of their last eleven games.

Cold teams
-- Indians lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last ten home games. Washington lost five of its last six home games.
-- Brewers lost 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Royals lost 12 of their last 13 games.
-- Astros lost four of their last six games; Rockies lost four of last five.
-- Marlins lost 18 of their last 21 games.
-- Giants lost five of their last seven games.
-- Padres lost five of their last eight games. Mariners lost ten of last twelve.
-- Toronto lost five of its last eight road games.
-- Red Sox lost their last two games, scoring four runs.
-- Rangers lost their last three games, scoring ten runs.
-- Bronx lost six of its last eight games.
-- Cubs are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Dodgers lost eight of their last ten road games.

Umpires
-- Chi-Cubs-- Home team won last five Fagan games.
-- Sea-SD-- Favorites won nine of last eleven Bellino games.
-- A's-SF-- Underdogs are 24-18 in last 42 Iassogna games.
-- Det-Pitt-- Last five Gonzalez games went over the total.

-- Bos-Phil-- Seven of last nine Miller games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Balt-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Estabrook games.
-- NY-NY-- Favorites won six of last seven Johnson games.
-- Cin-Cle-- Favorites won five of last six Cooper games.
-- Tor-Atl-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Nauert games.

-- TB-Mia-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Layne games.
-- Mil-Min-- Six of last seven Baker games stayed under total.
-- KC-StL-- Five of last six Fletcher games stayed under total.
-- Hst-Col-- Underdogs/over are both 6-1 in last seven Davidson games.
-- LA-LA-- Five of last six Dreckman games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate
Thursday Afternoon Top Play - San Francisco Giants (Interleague Game of the Month)
NBA - Heat -7
MLB - LA Angels, Yankees

Chicago Syndicate
Top Plays
NBA - Heat -7
MLB - White Sox, Yankees, Rays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1038-772 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Thurs: Seattle -110

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Reds -130

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Thursday Kansas City/St.Louis Under 9

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Today's NBA Picks

Indiana at Miami

The Pacers look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Indiana is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, MAY 30
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 519-520: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.593; Miami 127.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Seattle at San Diego

The Padres look to build on their 5-1 record in Andrew Cashner's last 6 starts as an underdog. San Diego is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, MAY 30
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Arizona at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.470; Texas (Grimm) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Over


Game 953-954: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 13.503; Cubs (Wood) 16.136
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); N/A


Game 955-956: Seattle at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.113; San Diego (Cashner) 16.284
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over


Game 957-958: Oakland at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.622; San Francisco (Zito) 15.825
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Under


Game 959-960: Detroit at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.468; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.394
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over


Game 961-962: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Morales) 15.809; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 963-964: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 16.325; Baltimore (Garcia) 15.989
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over


Game 965-966: NY Mets at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.704; NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.369
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under


Game 967-968: Cincinnati at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.023; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.236
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under


Game 969-970: Toronto at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 16.181; Atlanta (Minor) 15.165
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Over


Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Colome) 15.780; Miami (Nolasco) 13.472
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-185); Under


Game 973-974: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.035; Minnesota (Walters) 14.324
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over


Game 975-976: Kansas City at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 13.748; St. Louis (Wacha) 16.178
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under


Game 977-978: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 14.479; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-220); 10
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over


Game 979-980: LA Dodgers at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 15.409; LA Angels (Vargas) 16.945
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special*

The San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics are bitter rivals, and this game will be hard fought. Barry Zito used to pitch for Oakland, but now he starts for the Giants and he pitches great at home. Zito has a 1.38 ERA at home this year. The A's offense isn't nearly as good as they looked earlier this year. San Francisco's offense is better than last year by quite a bit. With Zito on the mound at home, I expected the Giants to be a bigger favorite here. The Giants are 6-0 in Zito's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. They are 10-1 in Zito's last 11 starts on 4 days rest. The Giants are 11-2 in their last 13 home games against Oakland. Take San Francisco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA INDIANA at MIAMI

Play Under - Any team after 5 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game
156-96 since 1997. ( 61.9% 50.4 units )
10-5 this year. ( 66.7% 4.5 units )

NBA INDIANA at MIAMI

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (INDIANA) off an upset win as a home underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
37-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.9% 17.0 units )
2-9 this year. ( 18.2% -7.9 units )

NBA INDIANA at MIAMI

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games
81-42 since 1997. ( 65.9% 34.8 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% -1.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

BASEBALL

PITTSBURGH +110 DETROIT (7PM)

SEATTLE/SD - UNDER 6.5 -115 (340PM)

CINCY/CLEVELAND - OVER 9 -115 (7PM)

NHL

BOSTON/PITTSBURGH - UNDER 5.5 -120 (730PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, May 30

Miami scored 103-114 points in its two wins, 93-92 in its two losses to Indiana this series; Indiana is retrieving 39.9% of its missed shots so far in series- they're hurting Miami on offensive boards, they've got to avoid turnovers to at least get shots so they can rebound them. Over is 7-1 in this round of playoffs so far; seven of last eight Miami games went over total, as did last six Heat-Pacer games. Heat is just 2-5 vs spread so far in playoffs as a home favorite; Pacers covered both road games in series, after going 2-4 as a road underdog in first six road playoff games. Pacer G Stevenson is 13-27 in Pacer wins, 4-20 in their losses this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday ML Baseball

YANKEES NUNO -L -165 over Mets (7:05 et)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at SAN DIEGO

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SEATTLE) after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on Thursday
93-61 since 1997. ( 60.4% 43.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB WASHINGTON at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 58-31 (+29.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.8) , OPPONENT (4.1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 7.5 - Phillies/Redsox

100* Mariners -115

50* Tigers -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker MLB RunLine - Thursday, May 30 2013 8:15PM

976 STL -1.5 (+130) vs 975 KAN single-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Moose picks

Chicago White Sox ml
Oakland Athletics ml
Cincinnati Reds ml
Detroit Tigers 1st 5 innings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Cincinnati-128

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREG SHAKER

Premium Play for 1%

958 SFG / 957 OAK - OVER 7.5
Analysis: This number opened at 8 and has quickly moved downward to where it is now. I certainly understand why since Zito has been a Monster here at home. But he was not as much a Monster in his last start here and the Lefty has not been putting up good numbers over his last 3 pitched. His work verses his former team has been very iffy owning an ERA of Over 7 in six starts verses this Athletics. The A's have been frightening to lefthanded starters all year averaging well over 5 Runs Per 9 and more near 5.5 over their last 10 played. This park has been good for SF as well offensively with just Under 5 per 9 scored as well. Griffin is certainly capable but his best work has been back in Oakland. His last 23 innings on the road has produced 14 runs for his opponents. We do have a better than average weather pattern for this contest and the fact is, OVER is always more likely during a day contest here. That makes 7.5 a Bargain and I am playing it for 1%..

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

"Hondo hit with the Phillies last night then saw his Cards obsession pay off for a fourth straight game as they rallied past the Royals to lower the deficit to 85 herrs.
Today, King Felix looks like a bargain in San Diego — 10 units on the Mariners. Tonight, Mr. Aitch will play it again with the Cardinals — 10 units on Wacha-macallit."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beathespread MLB 5/30

D backs
Giants
Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Wednesday with the "Chalkest" game on the board the Rockies -$200/Astros.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Braves -$160/Blue Jays.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 +$105 for the week 32-18 + $82 for the 2013 Regular Season.


Ben lee had Np on Wednesday.

For Thursday Ben lee likes the Heat -7.5/Pacers.

Ben lee is 14-12 +$70 for the NBA Conference Playoffs.


Ben lee won in OT on Wednesday with the Blackhawks -$220/Red Wings and has Np for Thursday.

Ben lee is 2-1 +$100 for the week 13-4 +$730 for the NHL Playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoopsgooroo

952 Rangers -140 @ 2:05p
953 White Sox -110 @ 2:20p
955 Mariners -120 @ 3:40p
958 Giants -110 @ 3:45p
959 Tigers -125 @ 7:05p
967 Reds -135 @ 7:05p
Reds/Indians under 9
969 Jays +140 @ 7:10p
973 Brewers -130 @ 8:10p
979 Dodgers +140 @ 10:05p

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BG Sports

White Sox
Padres
Giants

Heat

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML -103

3* (MLB) Chicago Cubs ML -105
3* (MLB) Baltimore Orioles ML -127
3* (NBA) Miami Heat -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vegas steam moves

Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

4* Rockies RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 05/30/2013
(Won last 4 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Indiana Pacers : o185
Cost: -110

Run Line for 05/30/2013
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Miami Marlins : +1.5
Cost: -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks



MLB | May 30 '13 (7:05p)
Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers
-119 (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_420b_652) at BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/)


15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -119

The Detroit Tigers should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in what I believe will be a blowout by the end of the 9th inning in their favor.

Doug Fister is having yet another solid season for the Tigers. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.265 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Fister will mow down a Pittsburgh lineup that is hitting just .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game this season.

Jeff Locke has had a solid season to this point for the Pirates, but he has yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Tigers are hitting .280 and scoring 5.3 runs/game this year, including .287 and 5.6 runs/game against left-handed starters.

The Tigers are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 6-2 in Fister's last 8 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 42-89 in their last 131 interleague games as an underdog. Roll with the Tigers Thursday.








MLB | May 30 '13 (8:15p)
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals
Kansas City Royals
+154 (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=1670) at BMaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=1670)


15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +154

The Kansas City Royals are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Royals have been struggling of late, which is why they are clearly undervalued tonight despite having one of the most underrated starters in the league on the mound.

Jeremy Guthrie has gone 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA through 10 starts this season. The right-hander is coming off an incredible 2012 campaign with the Royals, and he has picked up right where he left off last year.

St. Louis should not be this heavily favored considering they are handing the ball to rookie Michael Wacha, who is making his major league debut tonight. He'll be up against a hungry, talented Royals' lineup that will knock him around in his debut.

The Royals are 16-5 in Guthrie's last 21 starts overall. Kansas City is 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 10-3 in Guthrie's last 13 starts as an underdog. Take the Royals Thursday.







[ back to top ]
NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-


NBA | May 30 '13 (8:30p)
INDIANA GM5 vs MIAMI GM5
MIAMI GM5
-7½-107 (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=af000123&mediaTypeID=633&Image=/tracking/banner/160x600/5dimes-MB-160x600v4.gif&AffUrlID=176) at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)


20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5

The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight.

Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight.

The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

3 DIME GOM NBA HEAT/PACERS OVER 185
1 Dime St Louis ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (+109) *AFTERNOON START*
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs Cashner
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.18 units)

The Padres have won 2 of 3 in this interleague series and two straight. Last night San Diego gave up a solo homerun in the top of the ninth to put Seattle ahead, but the Padres tied it and then won in extra innings. The Padres are now 24-28 on the season and have a winning 14-12 home record. The Mariners fall to 22-31 on the year and just 9-19 on the road. Seattle has their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound who is 5-4 on the season with a 2.51 ERA, .244 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. Over his last two starts he hasn’t made it into the 6th inning and has allowed 5 earned runs in each (19 hits over 10.2 innings). The Padres will have Andrew Cashner on the mound who has been solid with a 4-2 record, 3.38 ERA, .241 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts he is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA, and at home he is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Despite Hernandez’ solid numbers the Mariners are just 5-6 when he takes the mound, while the Padres are 5-2 when Cashner starts. The Mariners are 28th in team batting average (.231) in May and 27th overall on the year. Take note that the Mariners are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and 7-19 in their last 26 road games. Surprisingly they are also just 5-12 in Hernandez’ last 17 starts dating back to last season. The Padres are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs right handed starter, 13-5 in their last 18 home games overall, 4-0 in Cashner’s last 4 starts overall and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Give me the Padres as underdogs this afternoon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Arizona at Texas (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -145 (moneyline)

The Texas Rangers will have redemption on their minds when they take on Arizona this afternoon. The Rangers were swept in a doubleheader in Arizona, then got rained out yesterday. The Rangers have been very tough at home where they enter this contest at 15-7, and have a strong history here vs. the Diamondbacks where they are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. The Rangers are very familiar with Brandon McCarthy as they have beaten him in four of his six starts against them. Justin Grimm has won his last three starts and has been very good at home with an ERA of 2.79. The D-Backs' 28-60 mark in their last 88 as a dog dos not bode well here. Take Texas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor MLB early pick

954. Chicago Cubs +103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Heat -7.5
W.Sox -115
Brewers -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave essler

mlb

cubs under

pittsburgh over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

MLB
San Francisco Giants (Barry Zito)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

We were going to use this as a paid play but the line movement took it out of our paid play value range

CHICAGO WHITE SOX w/Peavy -110 at CHICAGO CUBS w/Wood
Jake Peavy takes the mound against a team he's had a lot of recent success against while Travis Wood takes the hill for the Cubs. The White Sox have played pretty well over the last two weeks and they're looking to salvage a getaway day game in Wrigley this afternoon. Peavy is 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA over his last six starts against the Cubs and he's really throwing the ball well this season with 63 K in 60.2 innings and a 2.97 ERA over nine starts. The White Sox are 6-3 in his nine starts and seven of them have been quality outings. Peavy has seen an uptick in his ground ball rate, something that should benefit him on a balmy day at Wrigley.

Travis Wood has been overachieving and the regression that we're looking for began last start and could certainly continue over to today. Wood has a BABIP of just .211, despite a career mark of .264. That indicates a lot of luck, especially when you consider that his strikeout percentage is below his career average. His line drive rate is nearly 5% lower than his career number and when you look at all of the stats that need to normalize, you're looking at a pitcher who is due for some serious regression. Wood posted a 14.0% HR/FB rate at Wrigley Field last season and this season it is at just 3.5% because the weather has stayed relatively cool. As temperatures warm up, Wood's ERA and HR rate will go up. With temps expected to be in the 80s with humid conditions and winds blowing out to left at a pretty good clip, today looks like a good bet to be the day that Wood morphs back into the pitcher he's expected to be. His ERA is 2.73, but his FIP is 3.76 and his xFIP is 4.59. The bottom will fall out soon and the weather conditions, and an opposing lineup with a good amount of power, should be triggers.

After winning our Bryan's Diamonds play yesterday and splitting our paid plays we will be passing on Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

Thoughts on today's games:

The Yankees have an untested pitcher and have lost four straight. Untested pitcher is -160. Serious disrespect for the Mets and Gee. Mets (RL) or nothing.

Wade Miley hasn't been very good lately, be he can be. Holland has been good. Against bad teams. How often can you get the D-Backs/Miley/potential at +150.

Perhaps too much respect for Peavy or lack of for Wood. White Sox hitting woes and under .500 v/LHP. Wood is a LHP with a WHIP of 1.00.

Early/overnight money on the A's in the PM game, or perhaps really fading Zito. Really think the obvious over is the best play here given the weather. Will wait for lineups.

Early dineros seem to want to fade the Pirates again, showing no love for Fister and a lot for Locke. Can't really disagree with that, but lean over, especially if Martinez catches for the Tigers.

Fading Haren seems to be the early thing to do here, and with the warmth/wind and last nights' bullpen use, the over. My problem with that is the Nats may have scored their weekly allotment of runs last night.

Scott Kazmir is quite capable of beating Homer Bailey.

A year ago would R.A. Dickey have been +150 to anyone? Jays remarkably suck against LHP this year, but Minor CAN give up flyballs and it's hot and humid in Hot-Lanta.

I know Matt Moore is a super pitcher and that the Marlins are not a good team, but Nolasco is their best option and at +160 that's very tempting, since the Rays won't have a DH.

I am curious to see how Macha fares in his debut w/the Cardinals. He's awful young and clearly going to be on a limited pitch count. With St. Louis bullpen, I'd have a hard time backing them and lean over later rather than sooner.

Is Vargas really worth -150 or better against the Dodgers? Lilly is a gamer, but without Kemp I do think the better play is under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

MLB

(954) CHI-CUBS +105/RRL -1.5 +195

(956) SAN DIEGO +110/RRL -1.5 +255

(960) PITTSBURGH +110/RRL -1.5 +230

(968) CLEVELAND +115/RRL -1.5 +225

(969) TORONTO +140/RRL -1.5 +225

(975) KANSAS CITY +150/RRL -1.5 +240

I really like this card today and see a lot of value--great systems backing all plays!

"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline"
*Play side and reverse runline equally

NBA

(520) MIAMI -7 (-20)

(520) UNDER 186 (-20)

*(-20) means buy half point if necessary.

[kar261]

Steve Budin - CEO

Thursday's Play

The New York Crew has its 50 Dime play on Indiana. The Pacers are catching a solid 7 1/2 points just about everywhere I look in Vegas and offshore as of 11:00 AM Eastern.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1unit wagers / Steven Kane

MLB
Twins(+104)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Hook | MLB ML - Thursday, May 30 2013 7:05PM
ML 959 DET -117 vs 960 PIT double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Thursday, May 30 2013 7:05PM
ML 963 WAS +122 vs 964 BAL triple-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gill Alexander

2* Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler | MLB Total - Thursday, May 30 2013 2:20PM
953 CWS / 954 CHC UNDER 12 single-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns 10* NBA Main Event

Miami/Indiana Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer | NBA Total - Thursday, May 30 2013 8:30PM
519 IND / 520 MIA UNDER 185.0 double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Yankees over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Danny b

Giants ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

1000* Cardinals RL +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACCU-SCORE MLB

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 81-60, 57.4% +2213 -

SEA 955 vs SD 956 -- Value on San Diego Padres +104
CHW 953 vs CHC 954 -- Value on Chicago Cubs +103


ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 91-50, 64.5% +1898 -

CHW 953 vs CHC 954 -- Over 50% on Chicago Cubs +103
SEA 955 vs SD 956 -- Over 50% on San Diego Padres +104
TOR 969 vs ATL 970 -- Over 50% on Atlanta Braves -154

4 STAR MONEY LINE 112-70, 61.5% +1464 -

HOU 977 vs COL 978 -- Over 50% on Colorado Rockies -220
TB 971 vs MIA 972 -- Over 50% on Tampa Bay Rays -190
WAS 963 vs BAL 964 -- Over 50% on Baltimore Orioles -133
NYM 965 vs NYY 966 -- Over 50% on New York Yankees -163
SEA 955 vs SD 956 -- Over 50% on San Diego Padres +104

4 STAR TOTALS 99-80, 55.3% +1100 -

MIL 973 vs MIN 974 -- Under 9
NYM 965 vs NYY 966 -- Under 9
ARI 951 vs TEX 952 -- Under 9
TB 971 vs MIA 972 -- Under 7
DET 959 vs PIT 960 -- Under 7.5
KC 975 vs STL 976 -- Under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

1* Oakland/SF Giants Over 7.5
1* Cardinals -1.5 (+130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

4 Unit Play Take #957 Oakland -107 over San Francisco (3:45pm est):

The streaky Oakland A"s look for their seventh straight win and fourth in a row this season against the San Francisco Giants in this one. The A's are finally healthy and boy has it been a difference as they have scored 20 runs in their first three games of the week. The top of their batting order back is back intact with Coco Crisp and Chris Young, especially the one they like to use when going up against left-hand pitching like the face here today. The A's have really shredded lefties all season long ranking first in all of baseball in on-base average against them.

The same can't be said here for a San Francisco Giants team missing their leadoff hitter in Angel Pagan all this week. Pagan is dealing with a hamstring injury and won't be in today's lineup. In the three games he has missed the Giants not only are 1-3 but haven't looked like the same team against Oakland pitching thus far. Now they are faced here with A's starter A.J. Griffin, a guy with a quality start in four of his last five outings and with an improved ERA and WHIP during this stretch.

This Oakland team is having a lot a of fun as third baseman Josh Donaldson was quoted after their win yesterday saying "That's probably the most fun I've had in a long time outside of the playoffs. People are competing. Good clean fun, It was awesome." This quote speaks volumes about this group now that it's healthy, it's also very confident and these are big game for these cross-town rivals as keep in mind Oakland was in the background this off-season in the Bay area after the Giants won their 2nd World Series in the last three years. This despite the fact Oakland was probably the biggest surprise in all of baseball last season and were a great story themselves.

The A's look like they are definitely playing with a chip on their shoulders. A season series sweep here would be big for them. We all know that when the A's get hot they make a ton of noise as we seen that firsthand in the 2nd half of last season as they were the best team in baseball during that time. Add in a Giants team struggling as losers in 10 of their last 15 games and pitching clearly their worst starter on their regular starting pitching staff here in this game. Play Oakland here. My NBA post-season selections have netted me and my followers a nice profit thus far and I look to big nice exclamation point on what has been a fabulous 2013 on the pro hoops hardwood. Join me the rest of the way and see for yourself.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

MLB

NY Mets (Gee) at NY Yankees (Nuno) (-180, -1 ½ runs +115) 7:05 ET

5* NY Yankees (Nuno) (-180, -1 ½ runs +115)
The Mets enter with 4 consecutive victories while the Yankees have 4 straight losses. But I am eager to back NYY on this field to avoid the 4 game series sweep where they are 5-1 in this series at this site. Gee enters with an 8.36 ERA last 3 and a .373 BAA. Gee has been at his worst on the road where in 21 2/3 IP, he has a 9.97 ERA and 2.35 WHIP. Nuno has been a pleasant surprise in his first 2 starts allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits in 11 IP for a 1.93 ERA. In the NYY bullpen, we hold a 156-115 index advantage. They will be eager to close this out especially Rivera who blew his first save of the season Tuesday night. Run line players take note: 92/119 NYY home wins L3Y have come by 2 or more runs. Consider splitting your risk between the money line and run line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Junkie

MLB: Oakland vs Giants (3:45
pm est.)

$500 MLB Play: Oakland/Giants UNDER 7.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GoodFella

Thursday Free MLB Team Total

BALTMORE ORIOLES OVER 4.5 RUNS
"Viggy" here at -130, but a winner IMO. I actually expect Baltimore to get 6 runs or more tonight, as we have an extreme FLY BALL starter here in Danny Haren, who of course is also VERY hittable. The WEATHER for tonight, is fantastic for the "baseball carrying" much like last nights game and if you WATCH THE GAMES you can pick up on these things....Add on how WHITE HOT these Orioles are at the plate & well......Nuff said, play with US or fade us, I simply DNFC. Let's cash another here, friends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Pacers +7.5

Braves -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DHayes

3* Whitesox -119
2* SD/SEA Over 6 -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's INTERLEAGUE BASEBALL GAME OF THE YEAR!

Game Date/Time: 5/30/13 10:05 pm
Our Selection: Angels Opponent: Dodgers Line: -158 Rating: 4*
Analysis: At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
You probably haven't noticed, but Angels starter Jason Vargas has become one of the hottest lefthanders in the American League over the last month or so. Since beginning the season 0-2 with a dreadful 6.75 ERA in his first three starts, Vargas has been on quite a tear since then, going 4-1 with quality starts in six of his seven trips to the mound, while the Angels - who have seemingly struggled against everyone - have gone 6-1 in Vargas' starts since then. Vargas is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last five and tonight he and his team will face a lefthander with a lot more experience than himself in the Dodgers' Ted Lilly. But at age 37, Lilly is hardly the pitcher he used to be in his prime and he's had numerous arm injuries over the past two seasons, resulting in only 11 starts since the end of the 2011 season. Despite a successful 130-112 career record (.537), Lilly is just 12-15 (.444) in 38 appearances (36 starts) in inter-league play. Lilly also hasn't had much success against the Angels, logging just a 5-5 record and 4.02 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Halos. Heading into Thursday's game, the Dodgers are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Take the Angels.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's HEAT/PACERS GAME 5 OVER/UNDER WINNER!
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 5 between the Pacers and Heat. The last game went over the total, but based on the pace of the game, it was fortunate to have done so. The pace for game 4 was by far the slowest of the series (79.4). By comparison, Game 3 was 84.7, Game 2 was 83.2, and Game 1 was 86.9. The reason the game went 'over' the total was that each team's offensive rating was off the charts: Miami's was 115.8, while Indiana's was 124.6. But the Pacers' offensive rating for the season was 104.87. Indiana does understand that it needs to slow the pace down in order to win, so I fully expect another slow-paced game. However, I also expect the offenses for both teams to come back down to earth, especially given the two teams' strong defensive natures (Indiana ranked #1 in defense (100.54 rating), while Miami was #9 (104.77 rating). Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Prediction: under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports handicapper King

Padres ML
Rockies RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs

7* GOM Indiana +7.5

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Madcap Sports

Texas ML

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SB Professor MLB Late picks

960. Pittsburgh Pirates +117
968. Cleveland Indians +111
972. Miami Marlins +141

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Indian Cowboy

3* Padres

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Unit Kings

Texas ML (3 Units)
Texas -1.5 (1 Unit)

CWS ML (3 Units)

SEA/SD Under 6.5 (2 Units)

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Marc Lawrence

heat
cinn

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Anthony Redd

80 Dime
Winner # 12 of 15
-and 5 in a Row -

Pacers - Heat Over

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charlie sports

500
under 186
minnesota over 9
atlanta under 7.5

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NBA action report: Public likes Pacers, sharps sizing up under

Not too many people thought the Eastern Conference finals would be this close, knotted at 2-2 heading into Game 5 Thursday. Oddsmakers are expecting a spirited effort from the Miami Heat, setting them as 7.5-point home favorites after a Game 4 loss.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action heading into tonight’s tipoff.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – Open: -7.5, 185.5, Move: -7.5, 186

Indiana’s Game 4 win is convincing the betting public, with 65 percent of the early action coming in on the road underdog. But despite that one-sided lean toward the Pacers, books want to hold at the current spread knowing Miami money is on the way.

“We are reluctant to go to -7 just yet because the Heat are such a public team and we believe they will attract a lot of money as we get closer to game time,” Stewart told Covers. “We're going to stand firm at -7.5 for now. “

The total for Game 5 has seen the most movement, jumping from 185.5 to 186. According to Stewart, it’s been nothing but money on the over heading into Thursday night but they don’t want to go much higher, expecting sharp money to pound the under if they do up the total.

“We believe the wiseguys are just waiting for books to respond to all this over money and give them even more value on the under,” says Stewart. So far all four games have flown over the total. But this is Game 5 of a very competitive series that is tied 2-2, with two of the top defensive teams in the league."

“We're fairly confident we're going to get hit with sharp under money if we move our total too high," he adds. "That said, 85 percent of the early action is on the over so the public might force our hand here and have us go to 186.5 or even 187.”

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Heat 8-0 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss

The last time the Miami Heat were dealt a loss, the reigning NBA champs lashed out with a 114-96 thrashing of the Indiana Pacers, easily covering as 2-point road favorites in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.

Miami has been able to respond to defeats in grand fashion recently. The Heat have followed both of their two postseason losses with a SU and ATS victory and are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a loss, going back to the regular season.

It’s no wonder oddsmakers have stacked Miami as a 7.5-point home favorite versus Indiana in Game 5 Thursday after falling 99-92 to the Pacers in Game 4. And since the formation of the “Big Three” – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – the Heat have gotten better and better at responding to adversity.

Overall, Miami is just 49-25 SU and 36-37-1 ATS following a loss during the “Big Three” era (2011-2013), including a 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS record in the postseason. However, most of those losses came in Year 1 (2011), when the Heat went 14-10 SU and 7-16-1 ATS.

Miami has posted a 25-10 SU and 20-15 ATS mark coming off a loss over the past two seasons, including a 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS count this campaign.

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Marco D'Angelo | MLB ML - Thursday, May 30 2013 7:05PM
ML 959 DET (-122) Hilton (http://www.pregame.com/en/main/sports-betting-lines-odds/) vs 960 PIT triple-dime bet
PLAY: DETROIT
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY

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ANDRE GOMES

NBA - 519 Indiana Pacers @ 520 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 181 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

The Game 4 of this series was the slowest game of the playoffs so far with a 79.39 pace factor! In fact, the pace on this series has been getting slower and slower: 87.85, 84.25, 83.37 and 79.39! The playing style of both teams suggests that the pace will remain slow in the future of this series, as Miami doesn't want to run like crazy on this series in order to avoid turnovers that can easily become quick transitions for the Pacers. They are being patient, they are working well on halfcourt by using Lebron James at the post and that has been working, as after 21 and 15 turnovers in the first two games of the series, the Heat committed just 5 and 6 turnovers on the last two games of this series! On the other side, Indiana is also wanting to play really slow, as they want to look for the better spots to put the ball down low on Roy Hibbert or David West. So, this is why the games on this series are being played are getting even slower with the time.


The truth is that Indiana has been incredibly efficient on the offense and always on an non-conventional way. A lot of their possessions have been ugly and they result in bad shots, but Indiana is compensating that with insane rebound rates: 52.75%, 53.51%, 59.66% and 59.68%! These rebounds are resulting in second chance points and especially in free throws. The Pacers averaged 28.6 FT/game against Atlanta and 29.3 FT/game against the NY Knicks, but they are now averaging 35.25 FT/game against Miami! It's also unquestionable that Indiana has a huge edge on this series on down low with Roy Hibbert and David West in post up plays: 1.07, 0.90 and 1.00 PPP on the last three games of the season!


On Game 4, an offensive letdown from Miami was expected and it happened. They scored 70 points on the first half of Game 3, but on Game 4 they needed three quarters to score 70 points. Indiana's defense had to choose between doing better close outs down low to Haslem / Birdman or put more pressure on the outside, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays. Their option was clear: they tried to avoid easy points down low. After allowing 52 points in the paint on Game 3, Indiana allowed just 32 points in the paint on Game 4! On the other side, Miami had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays with 7-15 FG and 1.11 PPP, a clear improvement from 0.46, 0.88 and 0.90 PPP from the three previous games of the series. Indiana will have to choose once again tonight to make an extra effort on their interior defense or at the perimeter, but looking at their results on Game 3 and Game 4, I believe coach Vogel's option is easy to guess.



Given the pace of this series and taking in account the offensive approach of both teams, I have no doubt that tonight's game will be another slow paced contest. Indiana has been having insane offensive ratings: 117.4, 117.2 and 125.0! However, the way they have been super effective on offense isn't sustainable in the future, as they are being good on offense via offensive rebounds and free throws, not from a good shot selection on their backcourt. Miami's offense was limited by an excellent Indiana's defense on Game 4, after a crazy good Game 3. The Pacers' approach for tonight will be the same: prevent easy points down low!


The refereeing on Game 4 was pretty questionable: a lot of flopping and some fines were applied, including to Lebron James! Therefore, I expect the ref crew for tonight to allow the players to be more physical than usual and don't have the approach that the referees have been showing on this series with a lot of tight calls that even made Lebron James being fouled out! With a slow pace and with the refs not being tight on foul calling, both teams will have to put some monster offensive numbers for this game to go Over the total posted. Therefore, I expect this series to see finally one of its games to go Under the total posted and so, I'll be taking it in here.


NOTE: This line is currently available at Bovada. The public is currently pounding the Over, so it's likely that the line will get even better for us as gametime approaches!

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INDIAN COWBOY

NBA

5-Unit play Take #520 Miami -7.5

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JIM HURLEY SPORTS

Indiana Pacers +7.5

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DHayes

1* Orioles
1* Indians

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FYI

Braves/Blue Jays Game

Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, and Dan Uggla are not in the line up today

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Vegas Steam Moves

ML Parlay With Pittsburgh (NHL)/ Jerzy Janowicz in Tennis

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Seabass Report for Thursday:
50 OVER Yankees
50 OVER Colorado
50 Cincinnati
100 Indiana

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ASL Sports Group

Marlins ML +145
Rays Team Total Under 4.5
Phillies ML +120
Jays ML +135
Astros ML +205
Pacers Under 185
Jays Under 7.5

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Cleveland Insider

MLB
5* Tigers -130
5* Braves -150
5* Brewers -110
1* Reds -120
1* Red Sox -135
1* Orioles -130

NBA
5* Heat -350

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Alatex 20 Playoff GOY Heat

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Mvpcapper
miami heat -7 nba eastern conf playoff game of the year

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Vegas Steam Moves

added
Indians TT over 4

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TMC Sports Advisors

Miami -7

Atlanta -150

Mets +1.5 -110

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GOODFELLA

1 Dime St Louis
1 Dime Oakland
3 Dime Baltimore/Washington OVER 9.5

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Kelso

100 Blowout Gow Stl

100 Nba Showdown Indiana