6-29-13

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::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks



SATURDAY, JUNE 29
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (6/27)


Game 127-128: Saskatchewan at Edmonton (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 110.756; Edmonton 109.624
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Top 4: Bettors beware clubs about to self-destruct
By JASON LOGAN

The MLB season is quickly approaching the halfway mark and with it, the July 31 trade deadline.

Trade rumors have hogged the headlines over the past week, and more than a few teams are making regular appearances in those reports.

Baseball bettors should beware of clubs about to push the plunger and blow up their roster – along with 2013’s aspirations. Players on the trading block are focused on where their next paycheck is coming from, not the next pitch, and teams can take a nose dive as the deadline draws closer.

Here are four MLB clubs who could be swinging the wrecking ball over the next month:

Philadelphia Phillies (38-42, -9.05 units)

The Phillies have been on dynamite watch around this time in each of the past three seasons. An aging roster and massive payroll haven’t produced results and Philadelphia sports fans don’t have much patience left for the franchise. Honestly, this team should have been blown up back in 2011.

Cliff Lee continues to be the big name floating around, even though the Phillies brass denies trade talks. Also cracking the rumor mills are Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Chris Young, Carlos Ruiz, and even Roy Halladay – the latter four are all free agents this winter.

Chicago White Sox (32-43, -11.92 units)

Everybody in the American League Central has a shot at the division crown this season, with Minnesota only six games back in fourth place. Everyone but the White Sox that is, according to the trade buzz coming out of the Southside.

With Chicago nine games back of the lead, it appears that the ChiSox are willing to clean house with the exceptions of starter Chris Sale and veteran slugger Paul Konerko. According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, a fire sale could include names like Alex Rios, John Danks and Alexei Ramirez.

Chicago Cubs (33-44, -7.14 units)

The Cubbies are still in rebuilding mode in Year 2 under wiz kid Theo Epstein and a deconstruction of 2013’s foundation appears to be on the way, starting with ace Matt Garza. The right-hander has improved his stock with three straight solid outings and is on the radar of just about every contending club in the bigs.

Chicago is also dangling carrots like Scott Feldman, Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, and Alfonso Soriano this month. The Cubs’ July schedule has them on the West Coast for a good chunk of the month.

Milwaukee Brewers (32-45, -15.46 units)

You’d have to be drunk off your ass to be betting on the Brew Crew right now. Milwaukee has been blitzed by the injury bug all season, fielding a different lineup almost every night. Ryan Braun is out with a bum thumb and who knows what suspensions lay ahead for him in the MLB’s ongoing PED investigations.

The Brewers pitching staff could stand for a good implosion, currently touting a collective ERA of 5.00 – second worst in the majors. Ace Yovani Gallardo is their biggest card in the deck when it comes to making moves. From the sounds of it, Milwaukee is on the fence about whether or not to pack it in. But with 11 of their next 17 away from home, where the Brewers are 13-22, the decision could be clearer by mid July.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roughriders at Eskimos: What bettors need to know

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (+1.5, 49)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are hoping their prized acquisition Geroy Simon will be ready when they open their regular season by visiting the Edmonton Eskimos on Saturday. The veteran slotback and all-time CFL career receiving yards leader suffered a leg injury during the preseason but is considered probable to start alongside Weston Dressler in what should be a fearsome offence for the Roughriders. Edmonton allowed a West Division-worst 25 points per game last year, but the team addressed the issue by acquiring free agent Odell Willis while defensive end Marcus Howard is now healthy.

Saskatchewan finished last season on a four-game losing streak and fell 36-30 to Calgary in the playoffs. Edmonton will have its third different opening-day quarterback in three years as former BC Lions backup Mike Reilly will get the start with Matt Nichols suffering from an ACL injury. Reilly has two previous CFL starts in his career. Pivot Darian Durant is entering his fifth season as the starter for the Roughriders, who posted a 31-24 victory over the Eskimos to open the preseason.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE MOVES: Saskatchewan opened as a 1-point road underdog but action in the Riders has swayed the line to Saskatchewan -1.5. The total opened at 50 and has moved to 49 with money on the under.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS: Saskatchewan is starting its season with eight players on the injured list, including veteran fullback Neal Hughes, wide receiver Kierrie Johnson and linebacker Abraham Kromah. Along with the injuries, the team will also be without defensive lineman Tearrius George, who will serve a one-game suspension for a helmet-to-helmet hit against Calgary in the playoffs last year. Durant had the most efficient season of his career in 2012, throwing 20 touchdowns and completing a career-high 64.4 percent of his passes while recording his lowest interception total (12) since becoming a starter.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS: Linebacker JC Sherritt was named Most Outstanding Defensive Player after setting a league record with 130 tackles last season. Sherritt was also tied for second on the team with five interceptions, one behind league leader Joe Burnett. Reilly fared well in his two previous career starts with the Lions, throwing for 682 yards and completing 69.3 percent of his passes. The 28 year old’s main target will be veteran slotback Fred Stamps, who finished second in the league with 1,310 receiving yards last year.

TRENDS:

* Under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings in Edmonton.
* Roughriders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Roughriders are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Edmonton.
* Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in June.
* Roughriders are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games in Week 1.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Edmonton, which finished last season with a 7-11 record, was 3-7 against West Division opponents.

2. Stamps is expected to play on Saturday despite sitting out much of Edmonton’s preseason due to soreness.

3. Roughriders RB Kory Sheets completed a mediation course last month after facing charges of battery domestic violence filed in January. The charges were dropped following the completion of the course and Sheets has been cleared to play by the team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

CFL Week 1

Straight Picks

Edmonton Eskimos - ML / +100 *0.75*

Saskatchewan and Edmonton are two evenly matched teams, for Edmonton to be a plus money dog at home does not seem right to us. Edmonton is a decent home team (5-4 last year) while the Roughriders have trouble traveling (3-6 last year) and lost both games in Edmonton last year (37-20 and 28-20).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NASCAR betting: Quaker State 400 preview

Who will be victorious in the third NASCAR Sprint Cup Race at Kentucky Speedway, which has a reputation for being a "rough track" on Saturday?

Here’s our betting preview:

Favorite: Kyle Busch (7-1)

Busch has one win, one top-five and two top-10s in two starts at Kentucky Speedway. There have been 534 laps circled across the two races held at Kentucky and KB has led 45.5 percent of them

Live dog: Brad Keselowski (12-1)

Keselowski won last year's race at Kentucky with a backup car. He took a gambled on fuel late in the race to rack up his third win of the 2012 season. He ranks second, out of 45 drivers with an average place of 3.8 at Kentucky.

Long shot: Ryan Newman (80-1)

Newman finished fourth in the 2011 race at Kentucky but crashed with 59 laps to go last year after qualifying fifth. He has two top-10 finishes in his last five Sprint Cup races and has great value at 80-1 this week.

Key stat: Ten different drivers have posted top-10 victories at Kentucky in just two Sprint Cup races.

Notable quotable:

"I love how much character that racetrack has. It's so rough. The groove moves around, and you really are just trying to dodge the big swells and bumps to find grip for your race car.” –Jimmie Johnson on racing Kentucky Speedway

Odds to win the Quaker State 400 courtesy of 5Dimes:

Kyle Busch 6-1
Kasey Kahne 7-1
Jimmie Johnson 7-1
Matt Kenseth 8-1
Denny Hamlin 11-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Carl Edwards 27-2
Clint Bowery 27-2
Kevin Harvick 27-2
Kurt Busch 16-1
Martin Truex Jr. 33-2
Greg Biffle 18-1
Jeff Gordon 19-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 39-2
Tony Stewart 43-2
Joey Logano 33-1
Brian Vickers 44-1
Juan Montoya 45-1
Jamie McMurray 115-2
Ryan Newman 80-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NASCAR Races Under Kentucky Lights Saturday
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts

Saturday, June 29 – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Kentucky Speedway – Sparta, KY
After tackling the Sonoma road course last week, the NASCAR circuit moves to the more traditional “cookie cutter” track at Kentucky on Saturday night for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts. The Kentucky Speedway opened in 2000 in a 1.5-mile tri-oval shape. All the turns have an identical banking of 14°, making it one of the flattest of the six other similar tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas and Chicagoland). The frontstretch, which measures 1,662 feet is banked at just 18° while the backstretch measures a similar 1,600 feet, but with only half the banking (4°) of the frontstretch. There have been only two NASCAR races at Kentucky. Kyle Busch took the checkered flag in the first race in 2011, and Brad Keselowski won at Kentucky last year.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 6-to-1
Kyle Busch 6-to-1
Matt Kenseth 7-to-1
Kasey Kahne 8-to-1
Denny Hamlin 8-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Carl Edwards 12-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Clint Bowyer 12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Jeff Gordon 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-to-1
Tony Stewart 20-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Joey Logano 30-to-1
Juan Montoya 40-to-1
Brian Vickers 40-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Ryan Newman 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 150-to-1
David Ragan 200-to-1
Danica Patrick 200-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 200-to-1
Austin Dillon 200-to-1
Jeff Burton 200-to-1
Aric Almirola 200-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 200-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Kasey Kahne (8/1) - Not only was Kahne last year's runner-up at Kentucky, but he continues to thrive in 1.5-mile tracks. In the past four such races this season (Charlotte, Kansas, Fort Worth and Las Vegas), he's placed 2nd, 2nd, 11th and 2nd. And after crashing in Michigan two weeks ago, Kahne looked strong at Sonoma last week with a sixth-place finish. This marked his sixth top-6 showing this year. He is certainly worthy of your largest wager on Saturday night.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Last year's winner at Kentucky also finished 7th at this track in 2011. The defending points champion has always been a great intermediate track driver, and this year is no different, placing 3rd in Las Vegas, 6th at Kansas and 9th in Fort Worth. He's also raced consistently well enough all season to remain among the top-10 drivers in the standings after all 16 starts. He's cranked out five top-5's, eight top-10's and has led at least one lap in nine of these races. That includes his seven laps led last week at Sonoma. At 12-to-1, the No. 2 car represents the best value on the board.

Tony Stewart (20/1) - In last year's Kentucky race, Stewart was getting 8-to-1 odds, so this looks like an undervalued driver on Saturday. Although he finished a disappointing 32nd in last year's Quaker State 400, the year before he started 9th and finished 12th. Stewart has also been decent on intermediate tracks, placing 11th in Las Vegas and then coming in 7th in Charlotte to start a run of four straight top-7 finishes, winning at Dover, placing 4th at Pocono and coming in 5th at Michigan. He's the best darkhorse on the board and thus worthy of a small wager.

Martin Truex Jr. (15/1) - The oddsmakers gave him 25-to-1 odds last year, so the value isn't great here. But Truex Jr. is an intermediate track monster, placing in the top-9 in all four 1.5-mile tracks this season. He was 8th in Las Vegas, 2nd in Fort Worth, 4th in Kansas and 9th in Charlotte. He has also moved up from 17th to 10th in the points standings in just the past two weeks alone, thanks to a 3rd-place showing at Michigan, followed by his victory at Sonoma last week. Placing 8th at Kentucky last year is just further ammunition to drop a one-unit wager on the No. 56 car.

Ryan Newman (100/1) - There are a good number of longshots on the board, but none are more exciting than Newman, who finished 4th at Kentucky in 2011 and started 5th at this track last year before a crash ended his day. He's been strong on 1.5-mile tracks all season. After an engine problem derailed his day in Las Vegas, he placed 10th at Fort Worth, 14th at Kansas and an excellent 6th at Charlotte, the track most similar to Kentucky's worn-out surface. If you discount the four races he has not completed this season (3 crashes, 1 engine), Newman's average finish is an impressive 12.2. And when you consider that Newman went off at 40-to-1 at Kentucky last year, you can see why the triple-digit payoff is somewhat realistic.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

PJ (Our resident Tennis Capper)

ATP TENNIS

ERNESTS GULBIS -150 FERNANDO VERDASCO (630AM)

WTA TENNIS

KAIA KANEPI -185 ALISON RISKE (9AM)

DOMINKA CIBULKOVA +130 ROBERTA VINCI (8AM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Gee is 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-0, 2.19 in his last two starts. Hudson has a 2.60 RA in his last three starts, but no wins (Braves scored six runs in five games).
-- Cain is 1-1, 1.69 in his last four starts. de la Rosa is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two.
-- Turner is 1-0, 2.25 in five starts this season. Stults is 4-1, 1.70 in his last eight starts.
-- Liriano is 3-2, 2.27 in his last five starts. Hand threw 4.2 scoreless innings in only start (52 PT) but he is mainly used in relief, allowing six runs in 19 IP overall this year.
-- Ryu is 3-1, 2.15 in his last eight starts. Lee is 2-0, 2.48 in his last three.

-- Parker is 4-0, 2.55 in his last six starts. Wainwright is 5-2, 2.24 in his last seven starts, but 0-2, 3.95 in his last two.
-- Leake is 5-1, 1.47 in his last eight starts .
-- Samardzija is 2-1, 1.11 in his last three road starts.

-- Doubront is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts. Rogers is 2-1, 3.00 in his five starts for Toronto.
-- Jimenez is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Davis is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Lyles is 3-1, 3.02 in his last seven starts.
-- Phelps is 2-1, 2.66 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Jordan took 4+ years to get to AA, but he is 7-0, 0.83 in AA Eastern League this year. This is MLB debut for Nationals' #17 prospect.

-- Tepesch is 0-2, 7.59 in his last four starts.
-- Harang is 1-2, 5.49 in his last four starts.

-- Axelrod is 0-0, 9.20 in his last three starts.
-- Gibson is 7-5, 3.01 in 15 AAA starts this year (Twins' #4 prospect).
-- Blanton is 0-3, 4.50 in his last five starts.
-- Verlander is 0-1, 8.10 in his last two starts. Archer is 1-2, 4.30 in his last three starts.
-- Britton is 1-2, 5.51 in three starts this season.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Jordan 0-0; Gee 4-15
-- Kennedy 6-14; Hudson 3-16
-- Cain 5-16; de la Rosa 3-16
-- Stults 4-16 (3 of last 5); Turner 3-15
-- Hand 0-1; Liriano 2-9
-- Lee 1-16; Ryu 3-15

-- Wainwright 4-16; Parker 6-16
-- Leake 2-15; Tepesch 2-15
-- Samardzija 5-16 (0 of last 4); Harang 4-12 (0 of last 6)

-- Rogers 1-5; Doubront 3-13
-- Jimenez 5-15; Axelrod 5-15
-- Davis 4-15; Gibson 0-0
-- Blanton 6-15; Lyles 4-11
-- Verlander 4-16 (0 of last 5); Archer 2-5
-- Phelps 2-10; Britton 1-3

Totals
-- Last five Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Four of five Turner starts stayed under total.
-- Four of Mets' last six games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado's last twelve games.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger home games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Oakland games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Mariner games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Minnesota games.
-- Four of last five White Sox games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 16 Houston home games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won their last seven games, scoring 49 runs.
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Mets won seven of their last eleven games. Washington won three of four.
-- Braves won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last seven games. .

-- Rangers won eight of their last nine games.
-- Oakland won 15 of its last 17 home games.

-- Baltimore won four of its last five games.
-- Angels won their last five road games, scoring 33 runs.
-- Cleveland won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Boston won eight of its last nine home games.

Cold teams
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games.
-- Padres lost four of their last six games.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last eight games. Colorado lost three of last four.
-- Phillies are 4-5 in their last nine games.

-- Reds lost six of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals lost five of their last six games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last eleven games. Cubs lost four of their last six games on foreign soil.

-- Bronx is 5-11 in its last sixteen games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last five games.
-- Tampa Bay lost its last two games, scoring three runs. Tigers lost three of their last four games.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games.
-- White Sox are 4-7 in their last eleven games.
-- Royals lost six of their last nine games. Minnesota lost five of last seven.

Umpires
-- Wsh-NY-- Underdogs won five of last six Demuth games.
-- Az-Atl-- Home side won eight of last nine O'Nora games.
-- SF-Col-- 12 of last 14 Davidson games went over the total.
-- SD-Mia--Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Emmel games.
-- Mil-Pitt-- Four of last five Hudson games went over total.
-- Phil-LA-- Favorites won last seven Bucknor games.

-- Stl-A's-- Five of last six Nelson games went over the total.
-- Cin-Tex-- Over is 8-1-2 in last eleven Dimuro games.
-- Chi-Sea-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Wegner games.

-- Tor-Bos-- Visiting team won six of last eight Bellino games.
-- Cle-Chi-- Four of last five Bell games went over the total.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 22-6-1 in last 29 Kulpa games.
-- LA-Hst-- Favorites won seven of last eight Barksdale games.
-- Det-TB-- Underdogs are 4-4 (+$111) in last eight Iassogna games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of last seven Kellogg games stayed under total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Arizona at Atlanta

The Diamondback look to take advantage of a Braves team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125). Here are all of today's picks.


SATURDAY, JUNE 29
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Jordan) 15.215; NY Mets (Gee) 16.694
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Under


Game 953-954: Arizona at Atlanta (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.535; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.463
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over


Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.155; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.858
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under


Game 957-958: San Diego at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.943; Miami (Tuner) 14.226
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Over


Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Hand) 15.587; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.105
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); Over


Game 961-962: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.405; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.076
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Under


Game 963-964: Toronto at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rogers) 16.158; Boston (Doubront) 15.567
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under


Game 965-966: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 14.023; White Sox (Axelrod) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over


Game 967-968: Kansas City at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 14.479; Minnesota (Gibson) 15.675
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under


Game 969-970: LA Angels at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 15.914; Houston (Lyles) 14.106
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Over


Game 971-972: Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.831; Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.279
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over


Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.421; Baltimore (Britton) 16.321
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Under


Game 975-976: St. Louis at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.463; Oakland (Parker) 15.497
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over


Game 977-978: Cincinnati at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.449; Texas (Tepesch) 14.644
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Under


Game 979-980: Chicago Cubs at Seattle (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 14.721; Seattle (Harang) 15.622
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Connecticut

The Mercury look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games at Connecticut. Phoenix is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks


SATURDAY, JUNE 29
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Phoenix at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 111.211; Connecticut 105.784
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 169
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Under


Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 119.051; Chicago 113.529
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1051-789 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner SAT Mets w/ GEE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Indians -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers

"The Royals gave formerly slumping Hondo the jolt he needed last night, toppling the Twins to trim the deficit to 750 purkeys.
Today, Mr. Aitch is getting busy with a batch of inflated investments on the Cardinals, Giants, Reds and Brewers — 20 units apiece."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Free Play Saturday Cincinnati/Texas Under 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Monte Sports

Saturday MLB Private Play Game of the Year #2

PRIVATE PLAY GAME OF THE YEAR #2 - Boston Red Sox -1.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Mets -115
Rangers -110
Cubs -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 06/29/2013

(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks : o7.5
Cost: +105

Run Line for 06/29/2013

(Lost last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Detroit Tigers : -1.5
Cost: +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Play of the Day
Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Friday with the Mets -$170/Nationals.

For Saturday he's at it again in desprate times losing 2 in a row "Mr Chalk" is going with the "Chalkest" game on the board

the Pirates -$172/Brewers.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-2 -$118 for the week 47-29 +$557 for the 2013 MLB Season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SuperSportsGroup MLB

St Louis v. Oakland 4:05pm
PICK: Oakland ML +110 Game

Detroit v. Tampa Bay 7:15pm
PICK: Rays ML +135 Game

Cincinnati v. Texas 7:15pm
PICK: UNDER 9.5 Game +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe ‏

Padres +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres -115 over Miami Marlins
(System Record: 46-4, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 46-44-1

Soccer Crusher
Velez Sarsfield + Newells Old Boys UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 417-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 417-362-55

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CINCINNATI at TEXAS

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
64-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% 30.8 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB ST LOUIS at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 89-53 (+40.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.7)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at CONNECTICUT

Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (72-76 PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at CONNECTICUT

Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) excellent free throw shooting team - making >=80% of their free throws, on Saturday games
38-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.9% 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.0 units )

WNBA LOS ANGELES at CHICAGO

Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

ST LOUIS -120 OAKLAND (4PM)

SD -111 MIAMI (7PM)

MILWAUKEE/PITTSBURGH - UNDER 7.5 +110 (7PM)

WNBA

LA/CHICAGO - OVER 160.5 (8PM)

CFL

SASKATCHEWAN/EDMONTON - UNDER 49 (330PM)

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1unit wagers / Steven Kane

MLB
Rangers(-117)
The Texas Rangers haven't allowed a run in their last 20 innings while the Cincinnati Reds haven't scored in their last 22.
The Reds (45-35) are losers of three straight and six of seven, batting .215 in that span, and have dropped eight in a row on the road in interleague play dating to 2012.

Pirates(-172)
Alone atop the NL Central, the Pirates look to extend their longest winning streak in nine seasons to eight games while trying to hand the Brewers a fourth consecutive defeat Saturday night.
Owners of the best record in the majors, the Pirates have averaged 7.0 runs and clubbed 14 homers during the seven-game run.

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BUSTER BETS

USA Soccer

1 unit Salt Lake ML (+157)
1 unit Dallas/Philadelphia - over 2.5 goals (-114)

U20 Soccer world cup

1 unit England/Egypt - over 2.75 goals (-112)

MLB

1 unit Mets/Nationals - over 7.5 (-110)
1 unit St Louis Cardinals ML (-120)
1 unit Cleveland Indians ML (-114)

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CHRIS JORDAN

200* Red Sox -145
100* A's +105

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML -107

3* (MLB) Atlanta Braves ML -145

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PAUL LEINER

100* Cardinals -125

50* Indians -125

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Greg Shaker MLB Total Sat, 06/29/13 - 7:15 PM

dime bet - 960 PIT / 959 MIL - OVER 8
Analysis: My number here is 9 and with -105 vig almost everywhere and my model showing 8 or more at 59.1% of the time and 9 obtained at 55.6% of the time, I am playing OVER for 1%

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Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Saturday, Jun 29 2013 4:05PM
ML 975 STL (-120) Hilton vs 976 OAK triple-dime bet

Analysis:
The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 29 road games. They are 40-20 versus right-handers and have their ace, Adam Wainwright, going.

Wainwright has been phenomenal with a 106-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.31 ERA, which shrinks a little more to 2.28 during day games where he's 5-1. Wainwright is fired-up, too, after he was pulled from his last start this past Sunday at home in a loss to Texas.

The A's aren't a huge power team relying more on patience and getting base runners on. Wainwright, though, doesn't walk anybody. He has a 1.01 WHIP. St. Louis is 8-0 the past eight times Wainwright has pitched on the road.

I can't see Oakland's Jarrod Parker matching Wainwright. The Cardinals rank third in batting average and on base percentage. They are fourth in runs.

Parker has come on after a slow start, but did give up three runs - including two homers - in seven innings this past Sunday in a 6-3 loss at Seattle. Parker has a 4.88 home ERA and a 4.55 ERA during the day.

The Cardinals are 17 games above .500. The A's are 13 games above .500. The A's have feasted on bad competition going 32-13 versus opponents that are .500 or below. Oakland is a far more modest 15-21 when facing foes with a winning record.

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Scherzer's 12-0 start earns bettors more than 7 units

Detroit Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer is off to a historic 12-0 start to the season, earning bettors 7.20 units in the process.

Scherzer is the first MLB pitcher to win 12 consecutive starts to begin the season since Roger Clemens in 1986. He picked up win No. 12 with a seven-inning, four-hit, three-run effort in a 6-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays Friday. Scherzer and the Tigers were priced as -133 road favorites.

Scherzer has made 16 starts with four no-decisions and Detroit was a moneyline favorite in all of those appearances. He has a 3.10 ERA and 131 strikeouts, helping the Tigers post an 8-8 over/under record in those trips to the mound.

On the season, Detroit is 43-35 atop the American League Central and has burned through -9.12 units heading into Saturday. The Tigers boast a 43-34-1 over/under count.

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Todays Bet Bets

(5 UNITS) Cardinals
Betting $585 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Padres
Betting $545 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $695 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Cubs
Betting $545 to win $500

(4 UNITS)SF/Col - UNDER 9.5
Betting $400 to win $400

(3 UNITS) Pirates -1.5
Betting $300 to win $375

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larry ness :

10* nl west gom - rockies ml

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dannyb

yankees

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GREG SHAKER

Saturday Twitter Play #1 is a 1* Premium Selection. #956 Colorado Rockies -105

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SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago -107 over SEATTLE

In five June starts, Jeff Samardzija has posted an ERA of 4.54 and he’s precisely the reason you buy skills and not ERA results. Samardzija skills in June were just as good and even better than they were in April and May but he was hurt by an unfortunately low 67% strand rate. Samardzija has some of the best skills in the game the first and second times he goes through lineups, as his BAA of .136 will attest to. Samardzija has 115 K’s in 106 frames, a strong 48% groundball rate, a 3.39 overall ERA with an xERA of 3.15. This is true value in that we get the vastly superior pitcher laying less than a dime against the weak-hitting Mariners.

Aaron Harang has a 5.29 ERA after 65 IP with an xERA of 4.07. Pitching at Safeco, that xERA is not a ringing endorsement. Harang has blown up in four of 12 starts and many other have been of the mediocre variety. One of his problems has been gopheritis with guys on base. He has an ugly 3.1 HR/9 in that scenario and that should come as no surprise given his ugly 29%/47% groundball/fly-ball rates over his past nine starts. Harang’s margin for error is razor thin. His control has improved but with a .278 BAA, he remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and he usually gets worse as the season progresses.


BALTIMORE -1½ +157 over N.Y. Yankees

You think the oddsmakers erred when they made T.J. MacFarlane a slight favorite over C.C. Sabathia yesterday? The public ate up that line and it cost them when the Yanks could not deliver the knockout punch early. New York scored three runs in the first three innings but it probably should’ve been twice that, which has been a constant problem for the Yanks. New York is seeing BB’s right now and the oddsmakers knew it when they posted that enticing number on Sabathia. Since June 1, the Yankees have a .219 BA and .604 OPS, which are both worst in MLB. Now New York will have to face Zach Britton’s nasty stuff. As long as Britton is throwing strikes he’s almost unhittable. Britton’s stuff is sick. When batters make contact, it’s usually weak or on the ground, as his elite 58% groundball rate and 16% line-drive rate will attest to. His problem has been control but when facing a team that is pressing like the Yanks are, batters tend to help pitchers out by swinging at pitches they have no shot of hitting. Britton has a great chance to thrive here.

David Phelps is a mid-rotation, starting pitcher for an average team. His skills are average, he walks too many batters (30 in 75 innings) and he’s been asked to switch roles for years. Phelps has appeared in 16 games, 10 as a starter. In his career, he’s appeared in 49 games, 21 as a starter. He’s been more consistent since the Yanks told him he’d be starting every fifth day but he’s heard that before. Phelps has an xERA of 4.75 over his last five starts and his fly-ball rate is trending the wrong way. In fact, over his last seven starts, Phelps has produced more fly-ball outs than groundball outs in all of them and that includes a start in Tampa in which he produced just six GB outs against 20 fly-outs. That’s a warning sign and he now has to face an Orioles team that leads the majors in HR’s with 109. Some of those fly-balls will likely go straight over the wall today and it should all add up to another O’s victory, only this time by more than a run.


MIAMI +109 over San Diego

Eric Stults is a popular guy these days. He's seen his ownership in fantasy baseball rise to over 65% in the last two weeks and his 2.23 ERA over the past 30 days is a good reason. Of course fantasy baseball is not wagering but many bettors play fantasy baseball. In other words, Stults’ stock is higher than it’s ever been and like we always say, that’s usually the best time to sell. Eric Stults is a 33-year old soft-tossing lefty. His command is very good but that's all control driven. His 67 K’s in 100 IP isn't that exciting and it's actually a step up from his historical skill level. Stults has an xERA of 4.07 and a slightly below average 42% groundball rate. Stults is simply a very average pitcher that has outpitched his xERA so far due to an extremely low 5% HR/F rate. With a 41% fly-ball profile, some balls will be leaving the yard very soon on this guy and as the chalk on the road, he’s just not very appealing. Stults is overvalued.

Meanwhile, Jacob Turner has gone unnoticed but continues to deliver the goods start after start. Turner has started just five games this season but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of them and that includes starts at Philly and Arizona, both extreme hitters’ parks. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Remember, back in 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. Turner has the goods to be a dominant strikeout pitcher but he’s focusing on fastball command and improving his change-up. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph, but he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner operates with a smooth delivery, which enhances the look and feel of his secondary offerings. He has excellent polish and pitchability and knows how to sequence his pitches to keep hitters guessing. The Fish have won three of Turner’s five starts and that probably should be four of five after he threw a gem in his last start in San Fran. Turner’s 1.97 ERA this season comes with full skills support and now is the time to buy low on this potential ace because the window of opportunity is going to close quickly.

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SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON/Saskatchewan Over 49

The first three games of the CFL season is an indication of just how advanced the offenses are compared to the defenses and we’ll apply that same theory here. All three games went over the number in easy fashion and this one isn’t likely to be any different. The Riders loaded up offensively in the off-season by adding Geroy Simon, Ricky Foley, John Chick and Dwight Anderson, who join this outstanding cast: Weston Dressler, Chris Getzlaf, Rob Bagg, Taj Smith, Greg Carr, Kory Sheets and Jock Sanders. Bagg could be the real sleeper here, as he’s spent most of the last two years on the rack but the reports are he looks quicker, fitter and healthier than ever. Darian Durant had his best season a year ago by completing 64% of his passes and they’ve surrounded him with a bevy of weapons. Saskatchewan also brought in George Cortez as offensive coordinator and he’s put together some of the most creative and best offenses this league has ever seen. Defensively the Riders are supposed to be as good as they were last year, when they ranked second in several defensive categories. That said, every defense in the CFL was expected to be greatly improved but every team has been torched by the opposition’s offense other than the Stamps.

The Eskimos had an off year last season and although they made the playoffs, they bowed out rather quietly and the Eskies subsequently hired Ed Hervey to take over the GM duties from Eric Tillman (the man that traded Ricky Ray). Mike Reily is an unfamiliar name. He hasn’t had much CFL experience but don’t let that fool you, as this kid was backing up and observing Lions all-star QB, Travis Lulay. Reily went 1-1 as a starter, while completing 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception in those games. He looked poised and very confident out there and knows he’s the starting QB every week. Edmonton has an explosive RB in Hugh Charles and several very decent options for Reily to throw to. On the defensive side of the ball, Edmonton has made many changes and it could take some time to see exactly what they have, but again, we mention that every defense has been two steps slower than every opposing offense. These are two teams loaded with offensive talent and offense has been the flavor of the week so far and there is no reason to believe this one will be any different.

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Harry Bondi

Mets
Red Sox

free play Rays

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Wayne Root's MLB Underdog Parlay of the Month pays....$5174, Saturday

Millionaires Take Milwaukee +155
Billionaires Take Kansas City +115
No Limit Take Cincinnati +107

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Sports Handicapper King

cardinals
Saskatchewan money line

Freeloader on the tigers.

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Accu-Score MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 133-77, 63.3% +2270 -

TOR 963 vs BOS 964 -- Over 50% on Boston Red Sox -148
KC 967 vs MIN 968 -- Over 50% on Minnesota Twins -115
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Over 50% on Texas Rangers -118
PHI 961 vs LAD 962 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Dodgers -108

ML-Home Line is -110 to -129 134-101, 57% +2227 -

NYY 973 vs BAL 974 -- Over 50% on New York Yankees +107
KC 967 vs MIN 968 -- Over 50% on Minnesota Twins -115
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Over 50% on Texas Rangers -118
WAS 951 vs NYM 952 -- Over 50% on Washington Nationals +109

4 STAR TOTALS 164-131, 55.6% +1990 -

NYY 973 vs BAL 974 -- Under 9
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Under 9.5
ARI 953 vs ATL 954 -- Under 7.5
CLE 965 vs CHW 966 -- Under 8.5
MIL 959 vs PIT 960 -- Under 7.5

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RICH SPORTS

MLB

1* 964 Boston UNDER 11 -125

2* 960 Pit -1 -140

3* 971 Det -140

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Denver Money

Free Play

1* Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 -145

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Kyle Hunter

*4 Star MLB Play of Day*
St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland A's
Take: St. Louis Cardinals -117

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO*
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies
Take: Total 9½ un+106

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total*
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins
Take: Total 7½ un-110

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rbi sports

under tampa

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Gill Alexander

2* St Louis

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DHayes

MLB

1* Under 8 - Pitt/Mil

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GoodFella

Free Play

1* Play #952 NY METS -107
(Gee & Jordan Must Start)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Phoenix at Connecticut (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Phoenix -4 (-105)

The Sun have a pair of top performers in Tina Charles, and Kara Lawson, but it has been the supporting cast that simply has not grown, and the Sun have found difficult times on the court. The Mercury have a solid inside presence with the addition of Britney Griner contributing 16 ppg. Connecticut is never one to back down, especially at home, but these teams are clearly headed in opposite directions. Phoenix has commanded a 5-0 ATS mark in the last five meetings. Play on Phoenix.

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John Ryan

25* LA Dodgers

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Scott Landau SAT:
WAS +100 / ZONA +135 / TOR +140 / TB +130

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INDIAN COWBOY

WNBA

3-Unit play. Take Under 160 - Los Angeles Sparks vs Chicago Sky

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INTPICKS

Today's Official Picks

Saturday, June 29, 2013

All 1 unit

MLB

4:05 PM ET

St. Louis @ Oakland

Take Oakland Money Line +105

4:05 PM ET

Toronto @ Boston

Take Boston Run Line (-1.5) +130

*Parlay Alert: Oakland ML + Boston Run Line (pays +372)

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Ocal Sports

(2) Royals +104
(2) Cardinals -119

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bookiemonsters

pod braves under 7.5

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TMC Sports Advisors

Rockies -105

Astros -120

Cincinnati/Texas Under 9.5

Yesterday 2-1

17-7 Last 24

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Pittsburgh Pirates RL-1.5

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BEN BURNS

10* Blue Chip Release = Play "UNDER 6.5" Philly/ LA Dodgers

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Bookieshunter

3* STL

2* KC
2* NYY
2* COL

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z money

oakland a's
reds/tex over

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SB Professor Late MLB Picks

958. Miami Marlins +106
962. Los Angeles Dodgers +105
966. Chicago White Sox +106
968. Minnesota Twins -114
970. Houston Astros +130
978. Texas Rangers -110
980. Seattle Mariners -103

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAYS

ARIZONA +135 (1.00U)

PHILADELPHIA -115 (1.15U)

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INDIAN COWBOY

MLB

3-Unit play Take #971 Tigers vs. Rays (7pm)

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The Factsman

Cardinals

Giants

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SB Professor NASCAR Picks 6/29

Jeff Gordon +105 over Dale Earnhardt Jr

Kasey Kahne -140 over Martin Truex Jr

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Ocal Sports

(2) Pirates -1.5