7-3-13

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::clap::

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Dallas Cowboys have had a hard time covering the spread at home since opening their $1 billion palace in 2009. America’s Team is a dismal 11-21 ATS at home in that span, including a 3-13 ATS record in Cowboys Stadium the last two seasons. And games like Week 13’s home date with the Oakland Raiders are a big reason why.

The Raiders come to “Jerry’s World” for Thursday Night Football in late November, sandwiched between a huge divisional road game versus the New York Giants in Week 12 and a Monday nighter at Chicago in Week 14, which will likely hold playoff implications. Oddsmakers have set Dallas as an 8.5-point home favorite hosting lowly Oakland, peaking past its AFC opponent and to an important Monday showdown in the Windy City.

Letdown spot

The Pac-12 title hunt should be fun to watch this college football season, if most of the country can stay up that late. A number of teams are contending for the conference crown, including UCLA and Washington, who clash on a Friday night in Week 12. The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas opened the Bruins as 2-point home favorites and early money pushed that spread to -4.

Those two extra points could give Huskies backers some added value with Washington, which catches UCLA coming off an important road game in Arizona the week before. The Huskies have a veteran squad with 20 starters back from 2012, including QB Keith Price. The junior was overshadowed by a surplus of QB talent in the Pac-12 last year and is a sleeper to win the 2013 Heisman Trophy.

Schedule spot

The Boston Red Sox had better pack the sun block with an approaching West Coast road swing. Boston is home to the San Diego Padres to start the week, finishing Thursday afternoon before jumping on a cross-country flight to play the Los Angeles Angels Friday. That three-game set with the Halos opens a 10-game, 10-day stretch that takes the team from L.A. to Seattle to Oakland before the All-Star break.

The Red Sox have yet to hit the left side of the country this season, only going as far as Texas for a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers in early May. Boston is 10-6 versus AL West foes so far this season but went just 8-24 against them in 2012. The BoSox visited those three teams over a nine-game, late-summer road trip last year, coming away with a 1-8 record.

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WNBA under bettors winning at more than 59 percent
By JASON LOGAN

If you’ve been following the WNBA this summer – and let’s be honest, you haven’t – you’d recognize that more games are finishing under the total than not.

In fact, heading into Tuesday’s four-game slate, 59.32 percent of this season’s WNBA contests have stayed below the number (24-35-2 over/under). That percentage jumps to 64.7 over the last 30 days, with WNBA action posting an 18-33 over/under count in that span.

WNBA teams are scoring slightly less than last summer, with teams averaging 77.36 points per game compared to 77.53, but also the 2013 schedule is much more spread out due to the 2012 Summer Olympics conflicting with last season.

At this time last year, WNBA teams posted a 42-38 over/under record, playing 80 games through the first two months of the schedule, compared to only 61 heading into July this season.

The London Games put the WNBA on a month hiatus (July 14 to August 15) and had schedule makers compressing the first half of the calendar. That busier pace gave teams less time to rest, gameplan and practice, unlike 2013 when most teams have at least two full days off between contests.

Western Conference teams have the biggest lean toward the under this year. Out of six Western squads, just one – the Phoenix Mercury (6-5 over/under) – is over .500 for the over. Outside of Phoenix, the five other West clubs have a combined over/under count of 19-31-1.

The Eastern Conference, however, is home to the three best under plays: Indiana Fever (2-8 O/U), New York Liberty (2-6-1 O/U) and Connecticut Sun (2-6-1 O/U).

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Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays +100 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 46-5, lost last 7 games)
Overall Record: 46-48-1

Soccer Crusher
Goias + ABCRN UNDER 3
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 420-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 420-363-55

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Locke is 4-0, 1.08 in his last eight starts.
-- Cingrani is 2-0, 3.54 in his last five starts, but only one of them has been since May 17.
-- Harvey is 2-1, 1.59 in his last five starts.
-- Lohse is 2-0, 2.51 in his last five starts.
-- Greinke is 3-1, 3.18 in his last five starts. Chatwood is 4-2, 1.61 in his last eight outings.

-- Colon is 8-0, 1.37 in his last eight starts. Garza is 2-0, 0.82 in his last three.

-- Scherzer is 5-0, 2.38 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 3-0, 3.27 in his last six starts. Holland is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Norris is 2-2, 2.38 in his last eight home starts.
-- Kazmir is 1-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Detwiler is 0-3, 7.54 in his last five starts.
-- Lannan is 1-2, 7.23 in his last four starts.
-- Delgado is 0-2, 4.00 in three starts for Arizona.
-- Zito is 0-5, 13.50 in his six road starts this season.
-- Nolasco is 1-2, 5.48 in his last four starts. Minor is 0-1, 6.00 in last three.

-- Lester is 2-4, 7.08 in his last eight starts. Volquez has a 6.92 RA in his last five outings.
-- Miller is 1-3, 6.38 in his last four starts. Williams is 1-2, 4.26 in his last four.

-- Johnson is 1-1, 4.40 in his last five starts.
-- Feldman is 2-2, 5.18 in his last four starts.
-- RHernandez is 0-3, 5.23 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-2, 5.46 in his last four starts. Walters is 0-4, 8.46 in his last five.
-- Guthrie is 0-3, 8.04 in his last three starts. Santiago is 1-1, 5.17 in his last three outings.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Lohse 6-16; Detwiler 5-12
-- Lannan 3-6; Locke 3-16
-- Nolasco 5-16; Minor 6-16
-- Zito 6-16; Cingrani 1-7
-- Delgado 2-3; Harvey 3-17
-- Greinke 3-11; Chatwood 2-9

-- Volquez 5-17; Lester 5-17
-- Garza 0-8; Colon 3-16
-- Miller 5-16; Williams 2-9

-- Scherzer 4-16; Johnson 1-9
-- Feldman 4-15; Santiago 1-9
-- FHernandez 3-17; Holland 1-16
-- RHernandez 6-15; Norris 4-17
-- Sabathia 5-17; Walters 4-7
-- Kazmir 3-13; Guthrie 5-16

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten New York games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last eight San Diego games went over the total.
-- Last eight Cub games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels' last five games.

-- Ten of last thirteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Kansas City games went over total.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Bronx road games.
-- Under is 12-6-2 in last twenty Houston home games.
-- Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won nine of their last ten games.
-- Washington is 8-5 in its last thirteen games.
-- Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
-- Mets won three of their last four games.
-- Marlins won eight of their last eleven games. Atlanta won six of last seven.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last ten games.

-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- A's won five of their last six games; Cubs won four of last six.
-- Angels won their last seven games, scoring 43 runs.

-- Blue Jays won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Texas won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Indians won their last five games, scoring 42 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies are 9-13 in their last 22 games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Giants lost ten of their last 12 games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Rockies lost five of their last seven games.

-- Padres lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Detroit lost six of its last eight games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last six games.
-- Royals lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Bronx lost 13 of its last 20 games, but won last two. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last six games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Wsh-- Under is 8-4 in last 12 Iassogna games; dogs won four of last six.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Emmel games.
-- Mia-Atl-- Last four Barry games stayed under the total.
-- SF-Cin-- Home side won nine of last ten O'Nora games.
-- Az-NY-- Wolcott's first MLB game behind the plate went under.
-- LA-Colo-- Favorites won eight of last ten Winters games.

-- SD-Bos-- Underdogs won six of last eight Eddings games.
-- Chi-A's-- Five of last seven Vanover games went over total.
-- StL-LAA-- Seven of last eight Scott games stayed under.

-- Det-Tor-- Last four Estabrook games went over the total.
-- Blt-Chi-- Five of last six Holbrook games stayed under.
-- Sea-Tex-- Favorites won seven of last nine Foster games.
-- TB-Hst-- 12 of last 15 Davidson games went over total.
-- NY-Min-- Underdogs won nine of last 12 Nelson games, with six of last seven going over the total.
-- Cle-KC-- Last five Danley games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at Colorado

The Dodgers look to follow up last night's 8-0 win and take advantage of a Colorado team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. LA is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, JULY 3
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Washington (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.167; Washington (Detwiler) 14.029
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Over


Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 15.276; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.961
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Under


Game 955-956: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 15.545; Atlanta (Minor) 16.960
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under


Game 957-958: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.654; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.026
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Over


Game 959-960: Arizona at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.306; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.698
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over


Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.306; Colorado (Chatwood) 13.705
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Under


Game 963-964: Detroit at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.117; Toronto (Johnson) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under


Game 965-966: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Feldman) 15.050; White Sox (Santiago) 15.661
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over


Game 967-968: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.524; Texas (Holland) 16.117
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Over


Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 16.643; Houston (Norris) 12.692
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Under


Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.240; Minnesota (Walters) 13.919
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over


Game 973-974: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.204; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.275
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Under


Game 975-976: San Diego at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 13.869; Boston (Lester) 16.192
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Under


Game 977-978: Chicago Cubs at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 16.273; Oakland (Colon) 15.205
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+160); Over


Game 979-980: St. Louis at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 16.676; LA Angels (Williams) 15.490
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1055-790 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 6-1 run in a row WED Cards w/ Miller

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

NYY -150

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Hondo

Yankees

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Cleveland/Kansas City Under 9

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Cappers Access

Nationals -155
Cardinals -110

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at TEXAS

Play Against - Road teams (SEATTLE) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
201-119 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% 66.8 units )
24-20 this year. ( 54.5% 0.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 40-24 (+21.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.

The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.0) , OPPONENT (3.5)

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

DETROIT -113 TORONTO (7pm)

SD/BOSTON - UNDER 10 -120 (7pm)

TEXAS -138 SEATTLE (8pm)

LA/COLORADO - OVER 9.5 +105 (8pm)

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PAUL LEINER

100* Dodgers -115

50* Over 8.5 - White Sox/Orioles

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CHRIS JORDAN

800* Mets run line +125

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Fox Super Situations™ - FoxSheet

MLB MILWAUKEE at WASHINGTON

Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs
150-104 since 1997. ( 59.1% 59.1 units )
2-4 this year. ( 33.3% -2.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at CHI WHITE SOX

BALTIMORE is 130-91 (+49.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.3)

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Tampa Bay vs. Houston
Money Line: -140 Tampa Bay

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Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play
TAMPA BAY (-140) over Houston
8:10 p.m. ET

We are now 7-2 the last 9 days on the Free Picks and we also went 2-0 last night for the Baseball "Steam Team" phone service, running our record to 10-4, +1,980! the last 9 days.

We have hit 63% of our free picks since mid-May and many of those selections have been baseball underdogs. Today, however, we're going to lay some wood on the road. We'll gladly risk some bankroll to go against Astros starter Bud Norris, who has a career 6.30 ERA against the Rays. What's more, Houston has won just six of Norris' last 26 starts against winning teams. The Rays are one of the best road teams in all of baseball and Houston is a dismal 10-22 at home against right-handed starters. The price is right. Take the Rays on the road.

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RickJ's Handicapping Picks Wedn MLB Play
1/2 Unit
971 C Sabathia
972 - MIN - P Walters +141

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Underground Sports Connection

Today my Wednesday Premium Play as the comp selection.

Take the NY Yankees over Minnesota

We found 3 key points that makes the Yankees a nice play today.

Yankees vs. A.L Central Division.
CC Sabathia is getting the start.
Hump Day (Wednesday).

Yankees have now won 16 of their last 20 meetings in Minnesota.
Yankees are 12-1 their last 13 vs. A.L Central opponents.
Yankees are 135-66 their last 201 Wednesday games.
Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia’s last 16 Wednesday starts.
Yankees are 43-17 in Sabathia’s last 60 starts as a road favorite.

Twins are 8-17 last their last 25 Wednesday games.
Twins are 27-65 in their last 92 games vs. A.L East opponents.
Twins are 15-40 their last 55 home games vs. a winning team.
Twins are 0-5 in Walters’ last 5 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML -110

3* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML +165
3* (MLB) Texas Rangers ML -131

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GOODFELLA

3 Dime GOM Texas ML

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Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Rangers

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SportsWagers
Today's Free Picks for Jun 03, 2013



Season to Date
124
126
0.00
+36.72



(2-1 Yesterday)





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngCleveland @ KANSAS CITY
Cleveland +102 over KANSAS CITY

The Indians are heating up again with five wins in a row while scoring 42 runs over that span. That’s likely bad news for Jeremy Guthrie. After spending time in Colorado and Baltimore, Guthrie seems to be enjoying the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. After some struggles in launching pads last year, he’s settled in as a regular part of the Royals’ rotation. His success since coming over to the Royals doesn’t mean he’s playable, it means he’s overvalued. With a low hit% and high strand% you can expect some ERA regression over the rest of the year. Guthrie has never been a big strikeout guy and this season his strikeout rate is almost laughable with just 49 in 101 innings. Combined with more walks (36) his command has dropped to an unacceptable level. Guthrie’s groundball rate is also on the decline with a rate of just 37% over his last eight games, down from 43% in his first eight. Guthrie has an xERA of 6.31 and if there ever was a sure thing for ERA regression, Guthrie is it. He may not last four innings here.
Scott Kazmir’s 4.83 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are not going to jump off the page but his base skills have been extremely good. Kazmir has 66 K’s in 69 innings to go along with a 43% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is also outstanding at 14% over his last five games. Kazmir is coming off back-to-back one-run, seven inning gems against Minnesota and Baltimore and he’ll now face a Royals team that has just seven wins in 21 decisions against southpaws. The take back is small but the overlay is huge because the Indians should be in the -140 range. Wrong side favored.


Our Pick
Cleveland +102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.08)

****





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngPhiladelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +150 over PITTSBURGH

At the time of this writing the line for this game had not posted yet but it looks like it’ll be John Lannan going for the Phillies against Jeanmar Gomez of the Pirates. We’ll figure on Gomez or Jeff Locke and the price to be somewhere in this range. We mentioned yesterday how the Pirates might be a good fade over the next couple of weeks because their best record in baseball makes them the most overvalued team in baseball. The Pirates rotation is turning into a mess with A.J. Burnett out and every other starter out-pitching their ERA by a significant margin. The Pirates have been able to compensate by scoring some runs by that’s unlikely to continue also. Over their past 20 games, Pirates' batters have struck out 180 times, which is the most in MLB over that stretch. The Phillies came in here last night and took the opener and broke Pittsburgh’s nine-game winning streak. What often follows a long winning streak after a loss is another loss and there’s little in Gomez’s skill set that suggests otherwise. Gomez enjoyed his best outing of the season last time out as he returned from the DL (forearm) to pitch five scoreless innings against Seattle. A repeat is unlikely here considering Gomez's poor command, low strikeout rate and 4.59 xERA. Gomez has pitched more than five innings just once in eight starts with a maximum pitch count of only 81, so chances of a win or quality start aren't very high. Gomez’s minor-league numbers hide his ugly, beneath the hood, major league stats history. xERA, command, and dominant start/disaster start splits are all telling you to stay away.
John Lannan is risky too. He’s never been consistent enough to last in any starting rotation but when he’s on his game, he can be very tough. Lannan has always had an elite groundball rate and this year is no different with a rate of 52%. Besides, Lannan isn’t the one spotting a significant tag here. We missed an opportunity last night when we pulled out of the first game of this series after a pitching change was made. That substitution did not change the fact that the Pirates were overvalued, just like they are again today. So whether it’s Jeff Jocke or Jeanmar Gomez today, the play is the Phillies and we’ll update it as soon as the line comes out.


Our Pick
Philadelphia +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

****





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngSeattle @ TEXAS
Seattle +115 over TEXAS

Felix Hernandez needs no introductions. Hernandez continues to be a sure-fire ace. He has posted five consecutive sub-3.50 ERA seasons and a sub-1.15 WHIP in three of the last four seasons. His skills also remain elite and any time a tag is offered on King Felix, one must, at the very least, give the Mariners a close look because they always have a great chance of winning when this guy takes the hill. Hernandez faces a Rangers lineup that is no longer an offensive force. Over their past 20 games, the Rangers are hitting a measly .244 and their 69 runs scored over that span is the fifth worst in MLB.
The Rangers are in this price range because their ace, Derek Holland gets this start. Holland has a 3.14 ERA in 16 starts and he’s also coming off a two-hit, complete game gem in New York against the Yankees. However, there are several cautionary flags pointing in Holland’s direction. In July of last year, Holland suffered from shoulder fatigue and as a result his fastball dipped from 94.1 to 90 MPH. His skills tanked along with his velocity and we could see him suffer a similar fate this year. Additionally, Holland has been awful at home over his last four starts, surrendering 35 hits over 22 innings but getting extremely fortunate with an 84% strand rate which led to just 14 runs against. Holland is getting smacked around at home and he could also suffer a letdown here after that gem in New York, a place he wanted to thrive in because of an extremely poor history there. He had something to prove in New York. The Mariners came in here last night and won 9-2 with Joe Saunders pitching. Nuff said.

Our Pick
Seattle +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

****






http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngChicago @ OAKLAND
Chicago +174 over OAKLAND

Another blown save last night prevented the Cubs from winning their seventh game in the past 10. They also blew a save on Friday in Seattle. Conceivably, the Cubbies could be on a serious run had it not been for those two blown saves. Chicago scored another seven runs last night and has now scored five runs or more in six of their last eight games. The Cubs’ offense combined with this price tag make them very playable here with Matt Garza on the hill. Garza now looks to be hitting his stride after an early string of shaky starts after returning from the DL in late May. Garza has given up just two earned runs in his last three outings along with a 23/5 K/BB in 22 innings compared to a 6.26 ERA in his first five starts.
Bartolo Colon continues to defy logic. Here’s a guy that’s 40-years old, is 40 pounds overweight, has a below average strikeout rate, has a fly-ball bias profile and yet he’s 11-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 5-0 over his last five starts with an ERA of 1.75. Colon, at the age of 40, is posting better surface numbers than guys like Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Roy Halliday, John Smoltz and Sandy Koufax were posting in their prime. He’s also posting better surface stats than current aces like Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. We’re never going to get the money back we’ve lost fading Colon this year so this has nothing to do with chasing it. The fact is, Colon is average at best, he’s grossly overvalued and if he beats us again, so be it. Value is value and that absolutely applies here.

Our Pick
Chicago +174 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.48)

****





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngLos Angeles @ COLORADO
Los Angeles -1½ +155 over COLORADO

The Rockies have played five consecutive games at home. The most runs they’ve scored over that span were four and that occurred against Barry Zito’s 11.25 road ERA. Take out that lame offensive performance and the Rocks have scored two or fewer in each game. Overall, Colorado has scored four runs or less in seven straight. Last night they were buried 8-0 in the opener of this series and things don’t figure to get much better here with Tyler Chatwood going. Chatwood presents plenty of risk at Coors Field against the Dodgers despite being 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA on the season. Chatwood rode an 82% strand rate and 0% hr/f in June to a 2.14 ERA last month but his 4.66 xERA and 1.30 WHIP are skeptical that the good results will continue. Also going against Chatwood are poor results in both 2011 and 2012. Chatwood's nine walks and 11 K’s over his past four starts highlights the risk even more here when the regression comes calling. Against the red-hot Dodgers, that inevitable regression likely begins.
Zack Greinke has been a fraction of his former self. He used to be counted on for a pure quality start nearly every time out but since some health issues that has not been the case. That said, he can still deliver the goods and appears to be coming around. Over his last five starts, Greinke is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.18 and an xERA of 3.46. Over that span, he’s struck out 28 and walked nine in 34 frames and his groundball rate has increased from 39% to 45%. The Dodgers have won nine of 10 and over their past 20 games, L.A is in the top five in several offensive categories. The Dodgers can’t wait to get back to the park here while the Rockies are swinging at and missing everything these days. A savvy skilled vet like Greinke should have another strong outing here against a collective group of hitters that are pressing.

Our Pick
Los Angeles -1½ +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-116)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs Colon
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.72 units)

Tonight I don't expect to see anything like the 8-7 final score we saw between these two teams last night as two hot starting pitchers will take the mound. Matt Garza will be on the rubber for Chicago and he is 3-1 on the year over 8 starts with a 3.83 ERA, .230 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has pitched 22 innings giving up just 2 earned runs while striking out 23 and walking just 5. Oakland will send who has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Bartolo Colon. Colon is 11-2 on the year with a 2.79 ERA, .257 OBA and 1.08 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs against in any of his past 9 starts, and he has an 8 game winning streak during which he's posted a 1.37 ERA. Over his last three starts he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which includes allowing just 1 earned run over 8 innings of work against the Cardinals his last time out. His numbers are better at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA, .235 OBA and 0.96 WHIP. Tonight we've got two very solid starting pitchers taking the mound in a pitchers friendly ball park and I think we'll see a low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh -150 (moneyline)

The Pirates are likely heading for a playoffs spot, and they have done so by dominating at home where they are now 28-14 on the season, despite the loss last night. The good news is that they have been even more lethal following a same home stand loss at home, where they are a robust 9-2 on the season, and neither of those loses came at the hands of a losing team. You know the Phillies' situation has changed when they try to fortify their rotation with John Lannan who has had little success vs. Pittsburgh in his career. Lannan owns a 1-4 mark with a 4.53 ERA when battling the Pirates in his career. At 7-1Jeff Locke is backed by a powerful 2.06 ERA, and has been great thus far on the season, owning six shutout innings vs. the Phillies this season. The Pirates have pounded losing teams to the tune of 22-5 in their last 27 against them. Play on Pittsburgh.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | MLB Total - Wednesday, Jul 3 2013 6:05PM
951 MIL / 952 WAS UNDER 8 Hilton double-dime bet

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bryan leonard

956 ATL -1.5 (+110) Justbet vs 955 Mia
Analysis:
ATLANTA v MIAMI

The Atlanta Braves send Mike Minor to the mound against Ricky Nolasco and the atrocious Miami Marlins. Minor is having a terrific season so far. He's 8-3 with a 2.95, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 4.75 K/BB ratio. Minor has a higher chase rate than last season and is inducing more weak contact. He's pitching really well and will get a Marlins team that has lost eight straight to the Braves. The Braves have turned it back on offensively, so Minor should get good run support.

Ricky Nolasco gets the ball with a lot on his mind. Nolasco has struggled a lot recently, due in large part to his name constantly popping up in trade discussions. In Nolasco's career against the Braves, he's just 5-10 with a 5.34 ERA over 22 starts. In his last five starts against the Braves, he's 0-4 with a 7.07 ERA. With the trade talks hanging over his head, an offense that is starting to find a groove, and what looks to be very little run support, we're comfortable playing the -1.5 in this spot as we don't project this game to be close.

PLAY: ATLANTA -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns' American League TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

under 8.5 detroit at toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter (http://www.sportscapping.com/handicappers.html?capper/366/Kyle%20Hunter)

Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts


MLB
Jul 03 '13
7:05p
Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays
Take: Detroit Tigers -110
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/betonline.jpg (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_420b_652)
in 9h


*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Max Scherzer is 12-0 so far this year. He has actually pitched better than Justin Verlander. The Tigers haven't been playing great of late, but they are still one of the World Series favorites for a reason. This is an extremely talented team that could string together a bunch of wins at any time. Josh Johnson will start for the Blue Jays. Johnson isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and he has struggled against good teams so far this year. While the Blue Jays have played well of late, they still don't have as deep as a lineup as the Detroit Tigers. Detroit has the clear pitching advantage here. Take Detroit.





Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts


MLB
Jul 03 '13
8:05p
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers
Take: Total 8 un-109
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/5dimes.jpg (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=af000123&mediaTypeID=633&Image=/tracking/banner/160x600/5dimes-MB-160x600v4.gif&AffUrlID=176)
in 10h


*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* Felix Hernandez is clearly one of baseball's best pitchers, and Derek Holland is quickly becoming an elite pitcher. Hernandez tends to pitch his best against high quality competition. The Mariners scored 9 runs last night, but they have struggled all year against left-handed pitching. Look for the Rangers to bounce back behind a great effort from Holland. The under is 5-0-1 in Hernandez's last 6 Wednesday starts. The under is 3-0-1 in Hernadez's last 4 as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in Holland's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in Holland's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the under.





Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts


MLB
Jul 03 '13
8:10p
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
Take: Los Angeles Dodgers -114
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/5dimes.jpg (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=af000123&mediaTypeID=633&Image=/tracking/banner/160x600/5dimes-MB-160x600v4.gif&AffUrlID=176)
in 10h


*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a totally different team of late. Stanley Ramirez is healthy, and Matt Kemp is getting healthy. Yasiel Puig has been baseball's best player over the last few weeks. Also, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting the ball extremely well right now. The Dodgers fortunes have turned quickly in the last few weeks. On the other side, the Rockies are headed south. With Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki both of the disabled list. This team just doesn't have the offense to keep up at Coors Field. Zack Greinke has actually pitched well at Coors Field in the past. The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games. They are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 as a favorite. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. Take the Dodgers.





Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts


MLB
Jul 03 '13
8:10p
Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals
Take: Kansas City Royals -115
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/sportsinteraction.gif (http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_1020b_102)
in 10h


*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Kansas City Royals wasted a lot of chances in last night's game, and they lost a close one to the Indians. Kansas City knows that if they are going to make a run in the season, it needs to be the Indians in this series. Jeremy Guthrie is an underrated pitcher for the Royals. The Royals are 12-2 in Guthrie's last 14 home starts. Kansas City hits the ball better against left-handed pitching, and Scott Kazmir is dealing with a minor back injury. Look for the Royals to put up several runs in this one. I like the value on the home team. Take Kansas City.





Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts


MLB
Jul 03 '13
10:05p
Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A's
Take: Total 7½ un-123
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/5dimes.jpg (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=af000123&mediaTypeID=633&Image=/tracking/banner/160x600/5dimes-MB-160x600v4.gif&AffUrlID=176)
in 12h


*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Matt Garza and Bartolo Colon have both been pitching brilliantly of late. Garza has a 0.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. Colon has an ERA well under 3 so far this year. Neither of these offenses are particularly strong. Recent overs by both of these teams have bumped the total up here which gives us more value on the under. Both of these pitchers could pitch deep into the game and save up the bullpen. I have this one pegged at 6.5 runs, so I'll gladly take the under when given an extra run. Take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

3* Detroit Tigers -110

3* Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers
Total 8 un-109

3* Kansas City Royals -115

3* Chicago Cubs/Oakland A's
Total 7½ un-123

4* Los Angeles Dodgers -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ocal Sports

Free Play: (2) Yankees -154

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

971 NYY (-150) Bookmaker.com vs 972 MIN (Triple Dime)
Analysis: I'm laying the price with the Yankees on Wednesday night. New York got roughed-up over the weekend in Baltimore, but have bounced back nicely in the first two games in Minnesota. I expect a third straight win when C.C. Sabathia faces P.J. Walters. This won't be the first time we have gone against the Minnesota right-hander. He heads in with a 6.03 ERA & 1.81 WHIP. His numbers are just as bad at home where he also owns a .333 BAA. I suspect he'll struggle some more against a lineup that plates nearly 5 rpg in road night games against righties. Sabathia has owned Minnesota in his ca†reer and he's slammed the door on the Twins in two starts at Target Field. Sabathia also owns a 1.15 WHIP on the road in 2013 and I expect his ERA to begin to fall right in line. The Yanks are 43-17 in Sabathia's last 60 as a road favorite and they're on a 12-1 run against the not so tough AL Central. The Twins have won just 15 of their last 55 at home against teams with a winning record and they're 0-5 when Walters is priced as a road dog up to +150. I'm backing the Yankees, my AL Tapout GOM on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASEBALL BAILOUT BLOWOUT!

A's

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Ed Meyer MLB Money Line Wed, 07/03/13 - 7:10 PM

double-dime bet - 976 BOS (-184) vs 975 SDP

Historically, the Padres have shown no fight when they are getting abused. The Padres are 20-50 in the history of the database as a 140-plus dog when they are off a loss in which they never led and trailed for at least four innings. The SDQL text is:

team=Padres and line>=140 and p:BL=0 and po:IL>=4

Their recent results in this spot are even worse, as they are 2-22 since late August 2011 and 0-12 their last dozen in this spot.

In Volquez's last two times under these conditions, the Padres lost 6-1 and 9-1.

When laying this big a price, it is important to have a starter that does not pitch down to the level of a struggling opponent. Jon Lester is a veteran who has produced a record of 17-2 in his career with the Red Sox vs a team that has lost at least three straight and it is not the first game of a series.

Boston has a tradition of crushing struggling teams, as they are a reliable 23-3 as a home 160-plus favorite vs a team that has lost at least four straight and it is not the first game of a series. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Red Sox and H and line<=-160 and o:streak<=-4 and SG>1 and date>=20050801

Finally, Edinson Volquez has not been sharp in this spot, producing a record of 0-8 as a dog of more than 135 as long as they are not on a six-plus game winning streak. The SDQL text is:

starter=Edinson Volquez and line>135 and streak<6 and date>=20120601

In his last two, he allowed 5 and 9 runs respectively. We give the Red Sox about a 75% chance to win here and this makes them a play at this price.

MTi's FORECAST: BOSTON 7 San Diego 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

SY GUY

SIDES ( 1 UNIT PLAY)

LAA -107 ST LOUIS (10pm)

SEATTLE +123 TEXAS (8pm)

ATLANTA -205 MIAMI (7pm)

TOTALS (2 UNIT PLAYS)

CLEVELAND/KC - OVER 8.5 -125 (8pm)

MIAMI/ATLANTA - UNDER 7.5 -125 (7pm)

SD/BOSTON - OVER 10 -110 (7pm)

SF/CINCY - UNDER 8.5 +100 (7pm)

TOTALS (1 UNIT PLAYS)

NYY/MINNESOTA - OVER 8.5 +100 (8pm)

CHICAGO/OAKLAND - UNDER 7.5 -120 (10pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Shaker's Shorts

2* MLB PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY

973 CLE (+104) vs 974 KAN
Analysis: The Royals are not having success verses Southpaws and the fact is they are not having much success at all right now winning or hitting lefties. The Indians are scoring runs in droves and most likely are going to send Guthrie to the showers early tonight. Jeremy has one of the worst K/BB Ratios in the league and pretty weird when you consider that this guy was/is touted as a strikeout pitcher. Consider the fact that over his last 4 games he has 5 K's and 11 BB's. That is just awful. He has had some time off to heal a bruised finger but is that a good thing? I don't think so. I am going to play the Hot Team here and at a small dog number. Seems way too No Brainer-like especially since Kazmir's latest numbers look more like his numbers of old.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DannyB

tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANTHONY REDD
80 DIME PADRES/RED SOX OVER 10
2nd Biggest MLB Play in 2013

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Tuesday with the Pirates -$160/Phillies.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" likes the 2nd "Chalkest" play on the board the Mets -$190/Diamondbacks.

"Mr Chalk" is 0-1 -$160 for the week 49-30 +$597 for the 2013 MLB Season.


Ben lee lost on Tuesday with S Stephens Ev/M Bartoll.

For Wednesday Ben lee liked J Del Porto$130/D Ferrer.

(Game set and match already played and J D won in 3 sets)

Ben lee is 3-1 +$230 at Wimbledon

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor MLB Picks 7/3

962. Colorado Rockies -101
974. Kansas City Royals -113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY

MLB

6-Unit play Take #968 Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners (8pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

L.A DODGERS -110
(Greinke/Chatwood)

Both pitchers are having really good seasons. The Dodgers paid a lot of money to be the west coast version of the Yankees and are slowly showing signs of life. The key to me in this game is Colorado not being able to locate the ball over the past few weeks. When you can't score runs you can't win in this league. I like the way L.A is playing right now and like Greinke a tad better as the starter tonight. Take the Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CUBS/OAKLAND UNDER 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAYS

DETROIT -125 (2.50U)

NY YANKS -155 (3.10U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

cards
tigers

Freeloader on A's run line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass Report for Wednesday-all 50's:
Baltimore
Toronto
Colorado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* Run-Line Rout (11-4, plus-$5,261 L5 days)

My 10* NL Run-Line Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Z Money Sports

Milwaukee +125
Sd/Boston over 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan 25* Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gill Alexander 2* Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ultra Sports MLB

Milwaukee +135 list Lohse vs Detwiler
Cleveland +104 list Kazmir vs Guthrie

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Landau Wednesday Chase:
MIA +195 / SF +170 / ARZ +165 / SD +180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DHayes2

**** Rangers
*** Angels
* Braves RL
* Blue Jays RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9xSports

(MLB) 10:05PM St. Louis Cardinals -104

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Toronto +110

Oakland -1.5 +105

Atlanta -1.5 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Neri

LATE SERVICE WINNER

Tampa Bay Rays ML-145
(w/Hernandez)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

NOTE: SEATTLE ML IS MY PLAY OF THE DAY

MLB
(955) MIAMI +190/RRL -1.5 +295
(959) ARIZONA +165/RRL -1.5 +250
(964) TORONTO +115/RRL -1.5 +230
(966) CHI-WHITE SOX +110/RRL -1.5 +205
(967) SEATTLE +120/RRL -1.5 +180
(979) ST. LOUIS -105/RRL -1.5 +150

*Play side and runline/reverse runline equally
"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

Today's Official Picks

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

All 1 unit

MLB

8:05 PM ET

Seattle @ Texas

Take Texas ML -133

8:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Take Tampa Bay Money Line -130

*Parlay Alert: Texas ML & Tampa Bay ML (pays +210)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Denver Money

Free Play

1* Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Baltimore (Feldman) at Chicago White Sox (Santiago) 7:10 ET
5* Baltimore (Feldman) (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

jb pa connection
cards