7-6-13 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

07-05-2013, 09:59 PM

UFC 162 betting: Silva vs. Weidman statistical breakdown
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Chris Weidman could be the most dangerous opponent Anderson Silva has faced during his epic, record-breaking title run.

Weidman has been called a younger Chael Sonnen, perfectly suited to defeat the leading candidate for the UFC's "Greatest of All Time". Oddsmakers have Silva as a -260 versus Weidman (+220) at Saturday’s UFC 162, but what do the numbers say?

Tale of the tape:

The fighters are equally sized, but Weidman will have a significant age advantage, which is why many are picking an upset. But Silva’s ability to fight in an orthodox or southpaw stance has caused problems for better strikers than Weidman. While the basic age question certainly makes the underdog interesting, Silva has trumped youth for a long time.

Standup:

Silva is pound-for-pound, punch-for-punch the most dangerous striker in UFC history. Lately, he prefers to evade and counterstrike, resulting in ridiculously high (record-breaking) accuracy and obvious knockdown power. He holds all the important striking records and his highlight reel finishes include a who’s who of top contenders.

Weidman’s stats are mixed. He has an accurate jab but below-accurate power hand. He tends to push the pace a little on his opponents and works at a higher-than-average rate of output. But against a fighter like Silva, these attributes could work against Weidman. There’s no doubt that the longer this stays standing, the more likely it is that one of Silva’s laser-like punches will find Weidman’s chin.

Ground:

Here’s where it gets tricky. The only times Silva was put in danger was when Sonnen put him on his back and worked ground-and-pound. This cost Silva some of the only rounds in his UFC career and Sonnen was able to do it consistently. Weidman’s grappling stats are actually superior to Sonnen’s in takedowns and ground control. Weidman has seen the blueprint for defeating Silva and he comes in with exactly the right skill set to pull it off.

Silva fought injured in his first bout against Sonnen. The second time around, his takedown defense was better and he made shorter work finishing his opponent. His historical takedown defense of 81 percent is way above average and that’s defending against top-ranked contenders in nearly every fight. Don’t underestimate Silva’s ability to defend takedowns.

Once on the ground, Weidman can work some ground-and-pound, but he also has a submission offense that Sonnen lacked. Silva is an experienced BJJ black belt and has been doing this a lot longer than Weidman. Finishing Silva on the ground won’t be easy. Just ask Dan Henderson.

Prediction:

Weidman is a threat to win some rounds but Silva inevitably gets a few standup exchanges. Weidman’s sub-par striking will be a more glaring mismatch than Silva’s grappling defense.

Statistically speaking, there’s no striker more dangerous than Silva. It may take a couple rounds to develop, but eventually Silva will get the opportunity to counterstrike while Weidman is pressing forward and Silva excels at finding his target while they pursue.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-05-2013, 10:10 PM

UFC 162 betting: Weidman can't stand with Anderson Silva
By MMAODDSBREAKER

UFC 162: Anderson Silva (-245) vs. Chris Weidman (+205)

Anderson Silva (33-4) is arguably the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in mixed martial arts history and easily the best fighter the UFC has ever seen. He's out to add to that legacy versus up-and-coming contender Chris Weidman at UFC 162 in Las Vegas Saturday night.

The 38-year-old Brazilian has won 17 straight fights, including a record 16 straight in the UFC. Ever since winning the UFC middleweight championship back in 2006, he’s defended his strap 10 times – another record. Silva’s picked up three wins in three superfights at 205 pounds, a big reason why many consider him to be the pound-for-pound great.

He’s the most devastating striker we’ve ever seen in the Octagon and he’s won a record six “Knockout of the Night” awards for his finishes of Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, Forrest Griffin, Nate Marquardt and Rich Franklin (twice). As you can see by that list, Silva has a huge edge in experience on Weidman and, of course, he’ll have the striking advantage Saturday night.

Weidman, however, has the wrestling advantage and if he can exploit Silva’s takedown defense (which is underrated) and work his heavy ground game, it’s possible Silva could lose the title.

Weidman (9-0) is the top contender in the UFC middleweight division and earned his title shot with wins over top dogs Mark Munoz and Demian Maia. The 29 year old is 5-0 in his young UFC career and he’s shown exceptional wrestling and submission prowess. It’s the reason why many believe he has what it takes to dethrone Silva.

He’s obviously not as experienced as his opponent and he hasn’t fought in an entire year (last bout was July 2012), which is always a red flag. I don’t doubt that Weidman will have some early success with his wrestling and heavy top game, but eventually Silva is going to be able to get his chances in the standup. And at that point, it’s a question of whether Weidman’s chin can hold up.

Weidman will definitely make things interesting with his physical tools that will give Silva problems and I believe he can implement them to great success early on. He’ll control the early goings with his takedowns and ground game.

However, unless he gets a finish in the first two rounds, Weidman will tire out and Silva’s experience in the championship rounds will help him. He will find a way to stuff Weidman’s takedowns in the third round and keep the fight standing. From there, MMA bettors should watch for another highlight-reel fashion, perhaps with a never-before-seen kick.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-05-2013, 10:14 PM

NASCAR betting: Coke Zero 400 preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads back to Daytona International Speedway this week for the Coke Zero 400.

A driver has taken the checkered flag at both races (Daytona 500 and Coke Zero 400) in the same season just four times. Jimmie Johnson won the Daytona 500 earlier this year.

Here’s our betting preview:

Favorite: Matt Kenseth (10-1)

Kenseth is a two-time winner at DIS, but he’s never won the summer race. He also has six top-fives and 13 top-10s in 27 career starts at Daytona.

Live dog: Jamie McMurray (27-1)

McMurray also has two Daytona victories (2010 spring race and this race in 2007). He’s coming off a runner-up finish last week and always races well at this track.

Long shot: Kurt Busch (39-2)

Busch has two straight top-10s and four in his last six Cup races. He finished sixth at Kentucky and has 10 top-fives and 12 top-10s in 25 career starts at Daytona.

Key stat: Seven different drivers have prevailed in the last seven events at Daytona International Speedway.

Notable quotable:

"Hopefully, we can carry the momentum of a strong run and a second-place finish at Kentucky to Daytona. Daytona is usually a race that is about being lucky and staying out of trouble to be in contention at the end. Our team has been strong here in the past, and I expect we will be the same this weekend. But we will need to have some luck fall our way to bring home good finish." Jamie McMurray on racing Daytona

Odds to win the Coke Zero 400 courtesy of 5Dimes:

Matt Kenseth 10-1
Kevin Harvick 13-1
Jimmie Johnson 13-'
Tony Stewart 13-1
Kyle Busch 13-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 13-1
Jeff Gordon 16-1
Kasey Kahne 16-1
Clint Bowyer 16-1
Brad Keselowski 39-2
Carl Edwards 39-2
Kurt Busch 39-2
Denny Hamlin 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Greg Biffle 22-1
Jeff Burton 27-1
Joey Logano 27-1
Jamie McMurray 27-1
Ryan Newman 33-1
Juan Montoya 33-1
Michael Waltrip 33-1
Marcos Ambrose 45-1
Paul Menard 45-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 45-1

Can'tPickAWinner

07-05-2013, 10:15 PM

Most valuable MLB stats for baseball bettors
By JASON LOGAN

A few years back we asked a group of professional bettors which MLB stats they lean on the most when handicapping the day-to-day baseball schedule.

Here are the five prime numbers they singled out, why they’re important to baseball bettors and which clubs excel or just plain suck when it comes to these stats.

Strikeout-to-walk ratio

Walks can quickly turn into runs when a pitcher is struggling with his command. And runs can be bad, depending on which side of the scoreboard they end up on.

The Detroit Tigers (3.43 K/BB) and St. Louis Cardinals (3.20 K/BB) have the best team strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors, while the Houston Astros (1.91 K/BB) and San Diego Padres (2.09 K/BB) bring up the rear.

As far as individual pitchers, Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright tops the bigs with a 9.00 K/BB and has earned +2.22 units. Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma (5.72 K/BB, +4.55 units) and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee (5.48 K/BB, +1.32 units) are also among the leaders in Ks-to-walks ratio.

BA versus left-handed pitchers

Oddsmakers will usually tag an extra couple cents on the moneyline when a lefty takes the mound. Finding value on the other side of those odds can pay off.

The Tampa Bay Rays (.291) and San Francisco Giants (.279) are tops in the majors when it comes to facing southpaws. On the other end of the scale, the Washington Nationals (.215) and Miami Marlins (.223) can’t seem to catch up to lefties.

Quality starts

Baseball bettors want the best bang for their buck when handicapping starters. Getting six good innings from the starter puts you in a solid position to win most bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the exception to that train of thought. They lead the big leagues with 56 quality starts but have had most of those ruined by a bullpen ranked second worst in the majors.

Detroit (55 QS), Atlanta (54 QS), and Cincinnati (53 QS) are also among the leaders in quality starts. Minnesota (31 QS), Toronto (34), Colorado (35) and Milwaukee (35) have gotten the least from their starting staffs.

One-run games

Winning a baseball bet isn’t always easy and bettors will go through a few tough sweats over the course of 162 games. Teams with the ability to come through in crunch time make for smart wagers.

Cleveland owns an 18-8 mark in one-run games this season and Texas is right behind them at 15-8 in one-runners. Toronto and Philadelphia, two of the more costly bets this season, each boast a 9-16 record in one-run affairs.

BA with RISP and two outs

Clutch hitting is the difference between winning and losing a bet. Putting a play on a team that doesn’t crumble when the chips are down can keep you in the black over the course of a summer.

St. Louis is hitting .321 with runners in scoring position and two outs – best in the majors. Cleveland is tops in the American League with a .289 BA with RISP and two away. Cincinnati has put its tail between its legs with a .178 BA with RISP in two outs, and Milwaukee hasn’t been much better with a .182 mark in that situation.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:34 AM

Vic Monte Sports

MLB Guaranteed PRIVATE PLAY - Cincinnati Reds -2.00

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:34 AM

Hondo

Tampa Bay Rays

"Hondo connected last night with the Phillies, who put a nippin’ on the Braves to cut the deficit back to three figures at 910 pizarros.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will go to the mat with Moore — 20 units on the Rays to whale on Sale."

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:36 AM

bookiemonsters

pod astros under 8.5

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:39 AM

MLB Report

Hot pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 1-0, 2.00 in three starts this season.
-- Zimmerman is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. Fife is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three.
-- Marcum is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-1, 2.91 in his last three starts.

-- Latos is 3-2, 3.22 in his last seven starts.

-- Tillman is 6-0, 2.92 in his last six starts.
-- Dickey is 2-0, 1.13 in his last couple starts.
-- Sanchez is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 3-0, 1.86 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 4-0, 2.35 in his last seven starts, but has been battling a hamstring problem. Santana is 2-0, 2.94 in his last five.
-- Darvish is 1-1, 2.77 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 3.24 RA in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Kelly lost his only '13 start, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts. Morton is 1-1, 5.50 in his four starts this season (Pirates won last three).
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 10.45 in his last three starts.
-- Braves lost Hudson's last eight road starts (0-6, 5.70 last six).
-- Pomeranz is 4-11, 5.13 in 27 MLB starts; he allowed four runs in 4.1 in his only MLB start this season. Miley is 0-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.

-- Bonderman is 0-2, 9.00 in three road starts this season.

-- Pettitte is 0-3, 6.20 in his last four starts.
-- Sale is 0-5, 3.61 in his last six starts; White Sox scored 13 runs in those six.
-- Carrasco is 0-3, 8.17 in five starts this season.
-- Pelfrey is 0-2, 5.34 in his last five starts.
-- Keuchel lost his last two starts, allowing 12 runs in nine IP.
-- Williams is 0-2, 5.85 in his last three starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- Eovaldi 0-3; Kelly 0-1
-- Morton 1-4; Jackson 6-17
-- Marquis 5-17; Zimmerman 2-17
-- Fife 1-7; Bumgarner 1-17
-- Marcum 3-11; Gallardo 4-18
-- Hudson 3-17; Kendrick 6-17
-- Pomeranz 0-1; Miley 4-17

-- Bonderman 1-6; Latos 6-17

-- Tillman 4-17; Pettitte 4-14
-- Pelfrey 6-14; Dickey 5-18 (0 of last 6)
-- Parker 6-17; Santana 7-17
-- Sanchez 2-13; Carrasco 1-5
-- Sale 6-16; Moore 6-17
-- Keuchel 1-10; Darvish 5-16 (0 of last 6)
-- Dempster 6-16; Williams 2-10

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Cub games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last thirteen Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in San Diego's last eleven games.
-- Ten of last thirteen New York games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Arizona's last seven games.
-- Six of last eight San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Cincinnati home games.

-- 11 of last 16 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Minnesota games went over total.
-- Nine of last eleven Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Five of White Sox' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Kansas City games.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Washington won four of last six games, scoring 16 runs in last two.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Marlins won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games.

-- Cincinnati won four of its last six games.

-- Detroit won its last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Bronx won its last five games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Texas won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last ten games; Angels won eight of ten.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Milwaukee lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring ten runs.
-- Cardinals lost eight of their last twelve games; they're 3-11 in game after their last 14 wins.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last twelve games. Rockies lost seven of last ten.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 14 games.

-- Mariners are 4-5 in their last nine road games.

-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games. Toronto lost four of last six.
-- Royals are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last nine games.

Umpires
-- Mia-StL-- Underdogs won five of last six BWelke games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Last six Cederstrom games went over the total.
-- SD-Wsh-- Last three Dreckman games went over the total.
-- LA-SF-- Five of last six Randazzo games stayed under total.
-- NY-Mil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Hoye games.
-- Atl-Phil-- Underdogs won six of last seven Nauert games; under is 5-0-1 in his last six games behind the plate.
-- Col-Az-- Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Tichenor games, with home sides winning his last five.

-- Sea-Cin-- Four of last five Porter games went over the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Underdogs are 7-5 in last twelve Meals games.
-- Min-Tor-- Favorites won 10 of last 13 Knight games.
-- A's-KC-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Fairchild games, with underdogs 4-0 in his last four games behind the dish.
-- Det-Cle-- Last four West games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-TB-- Six of last eight Marquez games went over the total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won last four Blaser games; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
-- Bos-LA-- Eight of last twelve Tumpane games stayed under.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:41 AM

Today's MLB Picks

Baltimore at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to build on their 9-1 record in Andy Pettitte's last 10 home starts against the Orioles. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 6
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 15.395; St. Louis (Kelly) 16.944
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.973; Cubs (Jackson) 14.873
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); N/A

Game 905-906: San Diego at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 13.451; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 14.124; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.317
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Marcum) 15.206; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.803
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.743; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.928
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 14.763; Arizona (Miley) 13.928
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.612; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.982
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 13.380; Toronto (Dickey) 15.246
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-210); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.823; Kansas City (Santana) 16.855
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 17.072; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.936
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.528; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.312
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.018; Texas (Darvish) 14.755
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+250); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 16.808; LA Angels (Williams) 15.374
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Seattle at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bonderman) 15.307; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:44 AM

WNBA Basketball Picks

Connecticut at Indiana

The Sun look to take advantage of a Indiana team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Connecticut is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SATURDAY, JULY 6
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: San Antonio at Los Angeles (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.139; Los Angeles 122.557
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 16 1/2; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 13 1/2; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-13 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Seattle at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.733; Washington 114.460
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6 1/2); Over

Game 655-656: Connecticut at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.770; Indiana 110.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:48 AM

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1059-790 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 9-1 run Sat: Pirates -125

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:49 AM

Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

DBacks -160

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 07:50 AM

Joe Wiz

Free Play Saturday Colorado/Arizona Under 9

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:31 AM

Don Best Consensus

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been on a nice run as of late, going 11-2 in their last 13 games, while the Giants have been in a funk, going 1-10 in their last 11 games overall. Stephen Fife is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Madison Bumgarner is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with a 2.14 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. Play the Dodgers.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:31 AM

Baseball Crusher
Oakland Athletics -104 over Kansas City Royals
(System Record: 47-6, lost last game)
Overall Record: 47-50-1

Soccer Crusher
Brommapojkarna + Kalmar FF OVER 2
This match is happening in Sweden
(System Record: 422-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 422-363-56

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:32 AM

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB MINNESOTA at TORONTO

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MINNESOTA) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after scoring 2 runs or less
26-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% 27.5 units )
1-6 this year. ( 14.3% -3.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at NY YANKEES

BALTIMORE is 81-56 (+36.6 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.7) , OPPONENT (4.4)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:32 AM

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA SAN ANTONIO at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 good shooting team - shooting >=44% on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

WNBA SEATTLE at WASHINGTON

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SEATTLE) after 3 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game
142-49 since 1997. ( 74.3% 0.0 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% 0.0 units )

WNBA CONNECTICUT at INDIANA

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread
272-168 since 1997. ( 61.8% 87.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:32 AM

CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Miami vs. St. Louis
Money Line: -188 St. Louis

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:33 AM

BOB BALFE

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -110
(Santana/Parker)

Edwin Santana had himself a great first half on the mound this season. Even thought the Royals lost last night I still like how they have rebounded from a horrible stretch a few weeks ago. Look for Kansas City to take this one at home. Take the Royals.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:33 AM

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won both plays on Friday the Nationals -$150/Padres and the Rays -$175/White Sox.

For Saturday "Mr Chalk" is coming back with the Rays -$145/White Sox.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-2 -$50 for the week 52-31 +$707 for the 2013 MLB Season.

Ben lee lost at Wimbledon on Friday with J Del Potro +$500/N Djokovic for $50.

For Saturday Ben lee likes S Lisicki -$200/M Bartoli for $50.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:34 AM

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

MINNESOTA/TORONTO - OVER 9 -110 (1PM)

SD/WASHINGTON - UNDER 7.5 +105 (4PM)

CHICAGO/TB - UNDER 7 -105 (715PM)

WNBA

SA/LA - UNDER 160.5 (5PM)

SEATTLE/WASHINGTON - UNDER 145 (7PM)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:35 AM

Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML -146

3* (MLB) Tampa Bay Rays ML -136

JULY TOTAL 4-6 -12 Units
1-1
1-2
2-3

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:35 AM

CHRIS JORDAN

400♦ Run Line Punisher

Washington Nationals RL-1.5

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:35 AM

SweetJones55

WNBA
Washington Mystics -5

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:36 AM

BEN BURNS

**EARLY** Sat. Afternoon S-L-U-G-F-E-S-T!

OVER 9 - Detroit vs Cleveland

Milwaukee Brewers

SF Giants

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:36 AM

PAUL LEINER

100* Tigers -140

50* Over 8.5 - Astros/Rangers

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:52 AM

Handicapping Kings

JEFF (SY GUY)

TOTALS (1 UNIT)

MINNESOTA/TORONTO - OVER 9 -110 (1PM)

SD/WASHINGTON - UNDER 7.5 +105 (4PM)

LA/SF - OVER 7.5 -105 (7PM)

TOTALS (2 UNITS)

SEATTLE/CINCY - OVER 8.5 -105 (4PM)

COLORADO/ARIZONA - UNDER 9.5 -125 (10PM)

CHICAGO/TB - UNDER 7 -105 (7PM)

SIDES (1 UNIT)

KC -110 OAKLAND (2PM)

DETROIT -142 CLEVELAND (7PM)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:52 AM

SportsWagers CFL

Season to Date
5
2
0.00
+6.00

Today's Free Picks for Jul 06, 2013

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Edmonton @ HAMILTON
Edmonton +7½ -110 over HAMILTON

Everyone loves offense, at least most bettors prefer to bet on a team that can score and often shy away from teams that cannot. In the first week of the CFL, every team went off for some serious offensive stats with the exception of the Eskimos. The 12 points that the Eskies threw up in the fourth quarter last week against the Riders was all “garbage time” points. That lack of offense by Edmonton combined with the Tigercats strong offensive showing has the dog undervalued here. What should not go ignored is that the Eskimos fell behind by a big margin early and were forced to play catch-up in the first game of the year. That’s difficult to do in the middle of the year, let alone in the season opener. It also occurred against Saskatchewan, a team that looks primed to make a serious Grey Cup run after a 2-0 start in which the Riders outscored the opposition 75-39. The Eskies, although they have an unproven QB in Mike Reilly, still have plenty of talent, a decent defense and very good special teams. They will have a better game today and despite what the numbers say, we actually liked what we saw in Reilly. It was his first CFL start in real time and he’ll be much better today against the awful defense of the Tigercats. Hamilton lost last week to Toronto but probably deserved a better fate. That said, the Ti-Cats defense is a mess. Missed coverage, big play after big play and 490 yards of Argos offense was too much to overcome for the Tabbies. When your defense can’t stop the marching band, spotting more than a converted TD is risky business. Hamilton’s offense is scary good. They have so many weapons and they could easily go off for another crooked number today. However, the TiCats have proven over the years that they cannot be trusted to win by a margin when asked to do so. They have a long track record of underperforming when they’re supposed to win and that applies here. The Eskimos were embarrassed last week and it’s usually not a good idea to spot this many points to a team that was blown out the previous week. That, too, applies here.

Our Pick
Edmonton +7½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 10:52 AM

SportsWagers MLB

Season to Date
129
132
0.00
+37.90

1-2 Yesterday in MLB

Today's Free Picks for Jul 06, 2013

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Los Angeles @ SAN FRANCISCO

Los Angeles +147 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Dodgers are just too hot and too dangerous offensively to ignore at this price. L.A. came in here last night and buried a red-hot Matt Cain en route to an easy 10-2 victory. Over the past 15 games, the Dodgers are in the top three in the league in several offensive categories, including team BA (.293), runs scored (77), HR’s (19), total bases (247) and over that same span no batting line-up has struck out fewer than L.A.’s. They Dodgers have also defeated the Giants in four straight while outscoring them 23-10. L.A. definitely has some swag these days. They are playing gritty ball, they have a rookie named Yasiel Puig that joins the great Joe DiMaggio as the only players in major league history with at least 40 hits and four home runs in their first calendar month in the majors. Puig has ignited the entire club. If Stephen Fife were still in Milwaukee, he’d be that teams’ ace. Pitching in the shadows of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu makes Fife less noticeable but he’s been one of the game’s best starters since rejoining the rotation in early June. Fife has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of six starts. In 41 frames, he has a strong BB/K split of 11/35. Fife also has a 51% groundball rate, a 1.12 WHIP, a 2.83 ERA with a skills supported 3.22 xERA. San Francisco appears to be a beaten down squad. Incredibly, these Giants have just 16 wins over their past 48 games. San Fran has dropped four in a row and 11 of its past 12 games. Madison Bumgarner is about the only thing the Giants have been able to count on this entire year. Still, he has just eight wins in 17 starts, he rarely gets any run support and it’s not easy to go out there every fifth day when the team you pitch for can’t score runs or can’t win a ball game. Sure, the Giants can win here but these fired up Dodgers have an equal or better chance of winning and the price on L.A is bordering on preposterous.

Our Pick
Los Angeles +147 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.94)

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San Diego @ WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON -1½ +108 over San Diego

Speaking of teams that are heating up, one need not look further than these Nationals. Underachievers the entire season up to the end of June, Washington is now primed to make a big move. Loaded with offensive talent, pitching and a strong pen, don’t be surprised to see this team post the major’s best record from here on in. The Nats have already started to impose their will and it likely continues here. The Nats have scored eight runs or more in four of their past six, including the last two. That’s bad news for Jason Marquis. Not very skilled and past his prime, a decent control rate used to be Marquis' hallmark but that has gone south on him too. In 101 frames, Marquis was walked 60 batters and over his last five starts, he’s walked 24 in 37 frames. Marquis’s extremely fortunate 81% strand rate has kept his misleading 3.74 ERA from imploding but it’s only a matter of time before it does. The walks + 1.47 WHIP remind us that this guy is a pitching time bomb. Jordan Zimmerman has been untouchable in 10 home starts this season, going 9-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a BAA of .201 in 72 IP. Enjoying his career best groundball percentage, control, and xERA, Zimmerman continues to build upon an already dynamic skill set. Zimmerman will now face a slumping offensive squad with a .594 team OPS over the past two weeks.

Our Pick
WASHINGTON -1½ +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:04 AM

Goodfella

Single Dime- Blue Jays ( play half if you want to lower juice, between ML and RL)

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:47 AM

Saturday's National League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's National League games:

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-188, 8)

Hot pitcher: Marlins starter Nathan Eovaldi has gotten progressively better in each start since returning from the 60-day disabled list. The 23-year-old scattered four hits over six scoreless frames in a no-decision versus San Diego on June 29.

Cold pitcher: Cards closer Edward Mujica blew his first save of the season versus the Los Angeles Angels Thursday. He gave up two runs on four hits in 2/3 of an inning.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 6-1-1 in Marlins' last eight vs. National League Central foes.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-199, 8)

Hot pitcher: Nats starter Jordan Zimmerman leads the National League in wins and is sixth in ERA. He has won his last three starts.

Cold pitcher: Padres starter Jason Marquis has absorbed the loss in each of his last two starts and has not helped himself by issuing 12 walks in 10 2/3 innings over that span.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-90s and partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting stat: Padres have dropped seven straight games.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (+112, 9)

Hot pitcher: Cubs starter Edwin Jackson tossed seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball in his last start versus Pittsburgh on June 9.

Cold pitcher: Pirates hurler Charlie Morton has made six career starts against the Cubs, logging a 2-3 record with a 5.76 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Cubs are 1-6 in Jackson's last seven home starts.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-160, 7)

Hot pitcher: Giants starter Madison Bumgarner has a 1.20 ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers this season.

Cold pitchers: With a 4.39 ERA heading into action Saturday, the Dodgers bullpen sports the third-worst ERA in the bigs.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting stat: Dodgers are 0-7 in their last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (+111, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick has won seven of eight decisions against Atlanta in his career.

Cold pitcher: Braves starter Tim Hudson, who hasn't won since May 5, yielded four runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings to take a no-decision versus Arizona in his last trip to the mound.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low-90s. Wind will blow out to center field at eight mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 8-1-1 in Kendrick's last 10 home starts.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Mets starter Shaun Marcum has posted back-to-back quality starts after going 11 straight appearances without a win.

Cold pitcher: Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 17 hits in seven innings over his last two starts, both losses.

Weather: Game should be played outdoors. Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 Saturday games.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-161, 9)

Hot pitcher: Diamondbacks starter Wade Miley is 4-0 in seven games (six starts) with a 2.79 ERA against the Rockies

Cold pitcher: Rockies starter Drew Pomeranz yielded four runs and seven hits - including two home runs - in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss versus the Giants in his previous outing.

Weather: Could be played indoors due to excessive heat.

Key betting stat: Over is 5-1 in Miley's last six starts overall.

Interleague

Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds (-218, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Reds starter Mat Latos has fanned 31 in 19 1/3 innings during his last three outings.

Cold pitcher: Mariners starter Jeremy Bonderman struggled against the Chicago Cubs in his last outing and gave up six runs (four earned) and six hits in 3 1/3 innings.

Weather: There is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow from right to left at 12 mph.

Key betting stat: The Reds are 17-5 in Latos' last 22 starts as a home favorite.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:48 AM

Saturday's American League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's American League games:

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-110, 9)

Hot pitcher: Orioles starter Chris Tillman has allowed more than three runs just once in his last eight outings and has already surpassed last year's career-best win total of nine.

Cold pitcher: Yanks starter Andy Pettitte has surrendered at least four runs in as many consecutive starts and five of six since spending a 2 1/2-week stint on the disabled list with an upper-back injury.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 7-0-1 in Orioles' last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-190, 9)

Hot pitcher: Jays knuckler R.A. Dickey is rounding into form after a dreadful start to the season, and looks to build off back-to-back sensational outings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers.

Cold pitcher: Twins starter Mike Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA in six road outings this season.

Weather: Dome should be open. Temperatures in the mid-80s and cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last seven games as a home favorite.

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: A's starter Jarrod Parker has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive outings to shave more than three runs off his ERA.

Cold pitcher: Royals reliever J.C. Gutierrez allowed three runs versus Oakland last night and has surrendered five runs (three earned) in his last 1 2/3 innings of work.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 16 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (+131, 9)

Hot pitcher: Tigers reliever Joaquin Benoit has given up just two earned runs in his previous 13 1/3 innings of work, dating back to May 28.

Cold pitcher: Indians starter Carlos Carrasco has surrendered at least six runs in three of his first five outings, including a 5 2/3-inning effort against the Chicago White Sox on June 28 in which he escaped with a no-decision despite yielding six runs and 10 hits.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to center field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Tigers are 0-5 in Sanchez's last five road starts.

Houston Astors at Texas Rangers (-305, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Rangers starter Yu Darvish is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA over his three career outings against the Astros.

Cold pitcher: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start when he gave up five runs and eight hits in 4 2/3 innings.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: Rangers are 1-4 in Darvish's last five starts.

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-134, 7)

Hot pitcher: White Sox starter Chris Sale has 114 strikeouts and 24 walks over 106 1/3 innings, and opponents are only batting .202 against him.

Cold pitcher: Sox closer Addison Reed had an awful June in which he gave up 11 earned runs in 13 innings en route to three blown saves.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting stat: White Sox are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-109, 9)

Hot pitcher: Sox starter Ryan Dempster has surrendered three or fewer runs in his last seven starts.

Cold pitcher: Halos starter Jerome Williams recorded only five outs and threw 55 pitches in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday, leaving him fresh enough to start again on two days’ rest.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 6-0 in Red Sox's last six overall.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:48 AM

Gill Alexander 3* LA Dodgers

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:48 AM

John Ryan 25* Baltimore

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:49 AM

Sports Handicapper King

Edmonton

Freeloader on Giants

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:50 AM

SB Professor MMA Picks

Anderson Silva (-220) over Chris Weidman.

Mark Munoz (-110) over Tim Boetsch

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:52 AM

Bryan Rosica

100 DIME WINNER # 8 IN A ROW!
TABLE LIMITS!
OVERALL WINNER # 10 OF 11
Detroit Tigers ML

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:56 AM

Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Pirates
Betting $575 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $675 to win $500

(4 UNITS) Blue Jays -1.5
Betting $460 to win $400

(4 UNITS) SD/Wsh - UNDER 7.5
Betting $400 to win $440

(3 UNITS) CHW/TB - UNDER 7
Betting $300 to win $309

(3 UNITS) Cardinals -1.5
Betting $300 to win $375

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:57 AM

Dr. Ed Meyer MLB Money Line Sat, 07/06/13 - 2:10 PM

double-dime bet - 919 OAK (+105) vs 920 KAN

The Athletics took a 6-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth before the Royals scored three runs to make the final 6-3. The Royals have not demonstrated much fight in this spot. Kansas City is 57-101 at HOME when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the last game of a series. They are 2-6 in this spot their last eight and all eight games are from this season. This won percentage of 36.1% is BY FAR the worst in the league. The Twins are second worst at 45.0%.

Also, the Royals are 23-37 at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. So, when they are at home vs a team that just beat them at least once, they are 14 games under 500 when the line is close to pick. Terrible.

Fitting in beautifully here is the fact that the Athletics are a best-in-league 30-10 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the last game of a series. The Giants are second-best at 27-12.

This one tightens up to 14-1 if it is the second game of a series vs an AL foe, as can be seen with this SDQL text:

team=Athletics and po:BL=0 and p:W and SG=2 and C and date>=20120701

We have the momentum, the better starter and the better team and we're the dog.

MTi's FORECAST: Oakland 5 KANSAS CITY 3

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:58 AM

RICH SPORTS

MLB

3.5* 920 KC UNDER 9 -130

2* 912 Phi 1st 5 +105

2* 914 Az RL-1 -118

1.5* 924 TB -130

1* 930 Cin - RL-1

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 11:59 AM

Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Braves

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:00 PM

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Baltimore at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Yankees -110 (moneyline)

Last season was magical for the Baltimore Orioles. It seemed that they were winning just about every extra innngs game they played, and Joe Johnson was closing the door for 51 saves with just three blown and going 2-1 as well. This season he is struggling, and served up a walk-off single last night for his sixth blown save - most in MLB this year, and he is also 2-7. The Yankees' offense is coming to life behind Almonte, Cano, Gardner, and Ichiro, and the Bombers have taken five straight. Andy Pettitte is 99-48 in his last 147 starts as a home favorite, and Yanks are also 40-14 in Pettitte's last 54 starts after they allowed 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. Pettitte has been the king of the hill vs. the O's, as the Yanks are 9-1 in his last 10 starts against them. Take the Yankees.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:05 PM

NASCAR Tackles Daytona on Saturday Night
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Coke Zero 400 powered by Coca-Cola

Saturday, July 6 – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Daytona International Speedway – Daytona Beach, FL

The NASCAR drivers will head south to Daytona Beach, FL on Saturday night for the Coke Zero 400 powered by Coca-Cola. Daytona International Speedway, completed in 1959, is a 2.5-mile, tri-oval track with huge bankings (31° turns, 18° tri-oval banking). The frontstrech measures 3,800 feet with the backstretch coming in at 3,000 feet. Tony Stewart is the defending champion of the Coke Zero 400, while Jimmie Johnson won the last race at this track, the Daytona 500 in February. This is one of two tracks that are restrictor plate races.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Matt Kenseth 8-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Kyle Busch 12-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 12-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Kasey Kahne 15-to-1
Jeff Gordon 15-to-1
Tony Stewart 15-to-1
Brad Keselowski 18-to-1
Denny Hamlin 18-to-1
Carl Edwards 18-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-to-1
Kurt Busch 18-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Joey Logano 25-to-1
Jamie McMurray 25-to-1
Jeff Burton 30-to-1
Paul Menard 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 30-to-1
Juan Montoya 30-to-1
Danica Patrick 30-to-1
Michael Waltrip 30-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 40-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-to-1
Aric Almirola 50-to-1
Trevor Bayne 50-to-1
David Gilliland 75-to-1
David Ragan 75-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 75-to-1
Bobby Labonte 100-to-1
Dave Blaney 200-to-1
Travis Kvapil 200-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 30-to-1
Drivers to Watch

Denny Hamlin (18/1) - Hamlin is beyond due to win at this track, leading at least four laps in nine of his past 12 Daytona starts, but failing to finish better than third. And after finishing in the top-8 in three of four races shortly after returning from a back injury, Hamlin has been slumping. In his past three starts, the No. 11 car has placed 30th, 23rd and 35th last week in Kentucky as the result of a crash. At 18-to-1 odds, Hamlin presents the best value on the board and is our pick to finally earn his first win at this superspeedway.

Tony Stewart (15/1) - Stewart broke out of a major Daytona drought -- five straight finishes outside top-10 -- last July with his victory, marking his fourth career win at this track, which have all occurred in the summer race. That victory came from the 42nd starting position, marking the worst such start for any eventual champion, and marked his eighth top-5 and 13th top-10 in his profitable Daytona career. And even though he's underperformed in the past two weeks at Sonoma (28th place) and Kentucky (20th place), these tracks are nothing like this 2.5-mile beast coming up on Saturday night. With odds more favorable this time around than last July (12-to-1), Stewart represents a great payoff for a moderate wager.

Jimmie Johnson (12/1) - Despite the slew of bad luck Johnson has encountered at Daytona with five DNF results (four crashes and a rear axle issue) in his past 13 starts, he's still managed two victories, seven top-5's and nearly $8.5M in career earnings at this track. That includes his win at the Daytona 500 to start the season, and he nearly won at the other superspeedway, Talladega, finishing fifth after leading for 16 laps. Johnson has been in first place in the Sprint Cup Points Standings for 12 straight weeks now, thanks to three wins, seven top-5's and a sparkling 9.4 average finish this season. Johnson once again represents the best chalk in this field, with the added bonus of getting double-digit odds.

Joey Logano (25/1) - He’s the best darkhorse candidate for Saturday’s race, with finishes of 3rd and 4th in the past two Coke Zero 400 races. Logano also placed 9th in the 2012 Daytona 500, and has a pair of top-5's in his young career at the other NASCAR superspeedway in Talladega. He had a good chance to post another strong finish at Talladega a few weeks ago before his fourth-place start was ruined by engine failure. The 23-year-old has also been excellent in each of his past six starts this season with an average finish of 7.7. His 11th-place showing at Sonoma's road course is the worst finish he's had during this stretch, with last week's fourth-place finish being the best. At 25-to-1, Logano is worthy of a small wager.

Dave Blaney (200/1) - Admittedly there aren't many longshots in such a wide-open race, but Blaney sure has some seriously favorable odds at 200-to-1. While he's yet to win a NASCAR race in 447 tries, earning just two poles and four top-5's in this monster span, the 50-year-old Blaney has had mild success at Daytona. In the 11 Daytona races he's actually finished since 2004, he's placed 17th or better in five of those, including two of the past three. He led at least one lap in two of those races, and also led in two other races he eventually crashed in, both which occurred since 2008. As long as you treat Blaney like a lottery ticket that you don't expect to win, go ahead and place a one-unit wager on him during this holiday weekend.

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:30 PM

Seabass Report for Saturday all 100's:
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Pittsburgh

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:31 PM

Scott Landau Saturday:

MIA +170 / ATL -117 / COL +152 / CLE +135

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:31 PM

jb pa connection
reds -1.5

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:33 PM

Kyle Hunter

Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts

MLB
Jul 06 '13
1:05p
Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays
Take: Toronto Blue Jays -1½-110
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/sportsinteraction.gif (http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_1020b_102)
in 4h

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are in a really messy situation right now. Josh Willingham has been the most consistent run producer on this team and he is out of the lineup now. Joe Mauer has been hitting, but the rest of the team hasn't been. Mike Pelfrey has an ERA over 6 on the road this year, and the Blue Jays offense is rounding into form. R.A. Dickey has looked much better in his last two starts, and the Twins haven't seen him much at all in the past. The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6. They are 0-5 in Pelfrey's last 5 starts as an underdog. Toronto is 7-0 in their last 7 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts. Take Toronto -1.5.

Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts

MLB
Jul 06 '13
4:05p
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians
Take: Detroit Tigers -136
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/betonline.jpg (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_420b_652)
in 7h

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Detroit Tigers dominated the Cleveland Indians ace in last night's game, and now they'll face the Indians worst starting pitcher. Carlos Carrasco has been terrible so far this year, and in his career he has a miserable 9.50 ERA in four starts against the Tigers. This lineup has torched him and I don't see that changing. Anibal Sanchez has a career ERA of 1.75 against the Indians. On a normal team, Sanchez would be a number one or two starter. The Tigers lineup is clearly better than the Indians and they have a huge edge on the mound here. Take the Tigers.

Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts

MLB
Jul 06 '13
4:05p
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Take: Pittsburgh Pirates -115
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/betus.gif (http://www.betus.com/ats/10383/promo/football/getmore)
in 7h

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates dominated the Chicago Cubs as a small favorite yesterday at Wrigley and I think they can do the same again on Saturday. Charlie Morton hasn't been healthy much this year, but he isn't a bad pitcher and he'll face a weak Cubs lineup. On the other side, Edwin Jackson has 5.75 ERA and his ERA at Wrigley is well over 6. The Pirates offense has been great of late. Pittsburgh is 7-0 in their last 7 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 against the NL Central. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed pitcher. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings with the Cubs. The Cubs are 1-6 in Jackson's last 7 home starts. Take Pittsburgh.

Sport
Date
Matchup
Book
Starts

MLB
Jul 06 '13
4:05p
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals
Take: Washington Nationals -1½-105
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/sportsinteraction.gif (http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_1020b_102)
in 7h

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals are a much better team with Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup. Harper is the game changer that this team really needs. In addition, the Nationals have a healthy Jayson Werth contributing. Rondon has turned into a solid contributor for the team as well. Jason Marquis isn't a pitcher I trust, and Jordan Zimmerman is completely the opposite. Zimmerman is 9-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home this year, and he has been very good in almost every start this season. Take the Nationals -1.5 here

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:35 PM

Kyle Hunter

4* Pittsburgh Pirates -115

3* Toronto Blue Jays -1½-110

3* Detroit Tigers -136

3* Washington Nationals -1½-105

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:36 PM

Tkwins

Toronto under 9 4 units
Detroit -147 4units
Tampa Bay under 7 3units

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:37 PM

TMC Sports Advisors

Tampa Bay -140

Washington -1.5 +100

Baltimore -105

Pittsburgh -125

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 12:49 PM

The War Report (not Root)

Det. -150

Tor rl -110

underdog-

chi wsox +130

Can'tPickAWinner

07-06-2013, 01:29 PM

Joe Gavazzi Saturday:

Saturday, July 6th

MLB

Boston (Dempster) at LA Angels (Williams) (-110) 10:05 ET

3% Boston (Dempster) (EVEN)

The Red Sox transferred their winning streak to the West Coast with a 6-2 victory last night. While the Angels continue on solid runs of 14-7 and 8-2, that pales in comparison to the Red Sox run up of 28-11 with 5 straight victories. Now we get a pitching matchup that is in our favor. Though neither of these starters has a good history against the opponent, current form favors Dempster in this game. With injuries to Hanson and Vargas, Williams is forced to pitch on short rest following a Wednesday outing in which he allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 IP of a 12-2 loss St. Louis. In 6 starts from this mound, Williams is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA. Dempster’s record of 5-8 with a 4.11 ERA belies his recent consistency. Dempster has allowed 3 or less runs in each of his last 7 starts. Boston, the best team in the American League, as underdog is your value side in this one!

Miami (Eovaldi) at St. Louis (Kelly) (-190) 2:15 ET

3% Miami (Eovaldi) (+180)

Since the injury to reliable starting pitcher Jaime Garcia, St. Louis has been in flux with their 5th starter. Several recent days off have masked that deficiency. But today, this team who is on a 4-8 run, must turn to an unreliable option. In pitching mostly in relief, Kelly is 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Far prefer Eovaldi who, since returning to the rotation, has worked 18 IP with numbers of 1-0, 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Despite losing the opener in this weekend series, Miami remains on positive runs of 16-9 and 10-4. Make them a very live big dog in this pitching matchup.

Pittsburgh (Morton) (-125) at Chicago Cubs (Jackson) 4:05 ET

4% Pittsburgh (Morton) (-125)

Lone concern in this matchup is a June 9th start at Pittsburgh in which Jackson pitched his best game of the year in a 4-1 win vs. the Pirates. Even with that strong outing, the numbers for Jackson are horrendous. For the season, Jackson is 4-10 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. From this mound, those numbers decline to 1-5 with 6.69 ERA and .324 OBA. Pittsburgh has relied on the best pitching staff in baseball with a 3.14 ERA to ascend to the best record in MLB. That includes recent runs of 18-7 and 11-2. Leading the charge from the mound has been a bullpen that sports a 165 index (best in MLB) for the season. That unit got much needed rest courtesy of a complete game by Liriano yesterday. Now Pittsburgh sends Morton to the mound who in 4 starts has a 2.50 ERA with 1.22 WHIP. In a similar 4 starts vs. the Cubs, Morton has a 1.74 ERA. The following YTD dichotomy tells you much of what you need to know about these two teams this season. Pittsburgh is recently 22-4 vs. sub .500 teams while the Cubs are 16-37 vs. winning teams.

San Diego (Marquis) at Washington (Zimmerman) (-200) 4:05 ET

4% Washington (Zimmerman) (-200)

A no brainer to continue to fade San Diego especially with Zimmerman pitching at home. The Padres decline is now 2-11 (in which they have scored 34 runs and 0-7 in which they have been outscored 39-12. Storm clouds have at last erupted on Marquis after he had been running through raindrops the entire season. His respectable YTD record is 9-4 with a 3.74 ERA. But the peripherals tell a different story with 1.47 WHIP and 66/60 KBB. That KBB number translates to 5.4 walks per 9 IP, worst in MLB. In fact, in the last 2 games, Marquis has gone 0-2 in no small part because he issues 12 walks in 10 2/3 IP. Far prefer the best home pitcher in MLB, even at this price. In his last 13 home starts, Zimmerman is 12-0 with a 1.57 ERA. That includes 9-0 this year with a 1.50 ERA. In fact, Zimmerman has not lost in his last 21 starts from this mound. Make this a value play against the struggling Padres and Marquis.

LA Dodgers (Fife) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) (-160) 7:15 ET

3% LA Dodgers (Fife) (+150)

Never easy to go against Bumgarner who is on a positive run and always solid at home. In fact, recently Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA. In his last 3 home starts, Bumgarner is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Yet the numbers for Fife are comparable with a solid 2.83 ERA for the season, 1.21 WHIP and 35/11 KBB. In his last 3 starts, those numbers accrue to 2-0, 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. One area in which these teams are not comparable is in their recent overall record. The defending Champs enter on negative slides of 11-24, 1-10 scoring 28 total runs in their last 14 games. The reborn Dodgers are recently 11-2 averaging 5.5 runs per game with 13 or more hits in each of their last 5 games. At this huge price, we must make LA your Big Dog Play of the Day!

Chicago White Sox (Sale) at Tampa Bay (Moore) (-135) 7:15 ET

4% Tampa Bay (Moore) (-135)

The pressure has become too great for Sale. With little run support, he struggled in June to go 0-5 despite a 3.19 ERA in his last 6 starts. A 3 game 4.05 ERA vs. Tampa Bay will do little to restore his confidence. Nor will the knowledge of the recent CWS run which has dropped to 10-25 and 2-7 following the 8-3 Friday night loss to the Rays. That victory boosted Tampa Bay’s recent surge to 34-20 and 9-3. Now they send reborn starter Moore to the mound. After starting 8-0 with a 2.99 ERA, control issues got the better of Moore in dropping him to a 5 game record of 0-3 with a 9.31 ERA. Yet Moore has rebounded smartly to go 3-0 allowing 4 runs with 24 Ks in 19 1/3 IP (despite 12 walks). That positive run should continue with the knowledge he has gone 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA vs. CWS. Run line players will take back a healthy price should they follow the fact that 39/47 Tampa Bay wins have come by 2 or more runs.