UFC Fight Night 29: Shields vs Maia October 9th

[poopoo333]

Announced bouts

Welterweight bout: Jake Shields (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Shields) vs. Demian Maia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demian_Maia)[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-UFCFN29-2)
Welterweight bout: Erick Silva (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erick_Silva) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dong_Hyun_Kim)[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-3)
Featherweight bout: Jeremy Stephens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Stephens) vs. Rony Jason (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rony_Jason)[4] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-4)
Light Heavyweight bout: Thiago Silva (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiago_Silva_%28fighter%29) vs. Matt Hamill (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Hamill)[5] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-5)
Bantamweight bout: Raphael Assunção (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Assun%C3%A7%C3%A3o) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T.J._Dillashaw)[6] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-6)
Featherweight bout: Hacran Dias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacran_Dias) vs. Rodrigo Damm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Damm)[7] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-7)
Light Heavyweight bout: Joey Beltran (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joey_Beltran) vs. Fabio Maldonado (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Maldonado)[8] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night_29#cite_note-8)

[Luke]

Maia "should" beat Shields but who knows? Kim "should" be able to grapple fuck Silva, but again , who knows? I do know Thiago Silva is going to hit Hamill so hard even he'll be able to hear it.

[poopoo333]

Kim should be able to grapplefuck Silva for sure. But Kim isn't as aggressive with ground and pound like Fitch is so I'm not sure if he will be able to tire Silva out enough to make him ineffective like Fitch was able to do. He may give Silva too much time in order to let him capitalize on a mistake.

That being said, I'll be on Kim.

[poopoo333]

Beltran vs Maldonado is going to be fucking sexy. Very fucking sexy.

[edman5555]

Beltran vs Maldonado is going to be fucking sexy. Very fucking sexy.

I like beltran in that one. Maldanado doesnt really have one punch knockout power. His game is wearing guys out. Beltran is hard to wear out. I also think maldanados wrestling is not the greatest. I think beltran can take him down. I am just not sure that he will.

[edman5555]

Thiago should beat hamill, i think assuncao and hacran dias should win their fights. Maia vs shields is interesting. Edge maia.

[edman5555]

The reason i think dillashaw loses is because he will have trouble taking down assuncao and while dillishaws striking has taken out a lot of people i think assuncao is more crafty on the feet.

[poopoo333]

Mike Pierce vs Rousimar Palhares added

[Luke]

Mike Pierce vs Rousimar Palhares added

Wait, wut? Since when does that retard fight at 170?

[poopoo333]

Wait, wut? Since when does that retard fight at 170?

I dunno. Maybe he lost some weight after getting suspended for PEDs.

[MMA_scientist]

I dunno. Maybe he lost some weight after getting suspended for PEDs.

did he? I didn't hear that. Not at all surprising, but I never heard it.

[poopoo333]

Palhares, who suffered a first-round knockout loss to Hector Lombard (http://espn.go.com/mma/fighter/_/id/2501238/hector-lombard), was flagged for an elevated testosterone level.



Whatcha think about Maia/Shields scientist?

[MMA_scientist]

Whatcha think about Maia/Shields scientist?

I think the UFC has some balls making this a 5 round main event. Probably going to see some sloppy kickboxing. Neither of them has a great gas tank and neither is likely to finish the fight IMO. Maia's gas held up well against Fitch though, so he may gas at 170. They are both good grapplers, Maia is better, but Shields is good enough to not get subbed. Maia should win by being a bit better in all areas. Either could take the other down IMO, but Maia is definitely better from bottom, Shields is pretty average on bottom. I think the striking is a wash, slight edge to Maia. So... Maia.

[edman5555]

I think maia will win that. Only way jake wins is by a close decision.

[MMA_scientist]

Maia will probably be at least a 2:1 favorite

[edman5555]

I am sure he will be a favorite. Shields could edge him in the fourth and fifth rounds by out cardio-ing him.

[MMA_scientist]

I am sure he will be a favorite. Shields could edge him in the fourth and fifth rounds by out cardio-ing him.

Historically Shields has pretty shitty cardio at WW.

[edman5555]

That is true. I figure he will aclimate.

[Thewisemann]

Shields may be worth a bet at the current odds. Can Kim Fitch Silva?

[edman5555]

Shields may be worth a bet at the current odds. Can Kim Fitch Silva?

The answer revealed: no he cannot

[Luke]

The answer revealed: no he cannot

That would be correct

[edman5555]

His cardio has looked great at 170. This could be because he isn't having to wrestle larger fighters so it is less work for him. A lot of people are saying Shields is the one that will grind out Maia. I tend to think that Shields doesn't have the best of cardio at 170. Maia should be the better grappler and striker. Don't forget that Shields has almost no shot at finishing this one so even if Maia gasses in round five there is still a very good chance he will get the decision.

I like Joey Beltran to beat Maldanado. Beltran was able to outwrestle Igor Pokrajac. Maldanado has shown somewhat weak takedown defense in the past. Beltran should be able to out wrestle him if he wants to and you would think he will because Maldanado should be the better striker. Another thing to consider, Maldanado has a tendency to beat his opponents by wearing them down with body shots and the Mexicutioner is one of the toughests guys in the ufc. I can't see Maldanado doing that with him.

I'm staying away from Erick Silva vs Kim. Kim has the tools to win but Silva is a finisher.

I like Thiago Silva to probably knock out Hamil. Hamil is a good wrestler but Thiago isn't that bad himself.

I am also on Assuncao. His takedown defense is really good and so is his footwork and striking. I think he is too much to soon for Dillashaw.

Not touching Pierce/PaulHarris. Pierce obviously has the wrestling to stifle PH but those leglocks always make me scared to bet against him.

I also think Hacran Dias takes Rodrgio Damm but I should probably watch some tape on that

[SPX]

I agree that Maia should win here. I don't really like the line, but I imagine he wins the 72% of the time that the line indicates. It's probably more like 80%. Imagine the Internet shit storm if Shields subs him, though. . .

I actually lean toward Moldanado here. I think he'll have the T3D to keep it on the feet and should have the more polished boxing, but you never know with him. He's always in close fights.

Agreed on Thiago Silva. Like with Maia, I don't really like the line, but I may go ahead and pull the trigger on that one.

Normally I would say almost anyone in the UFC beats Damm but Damm has surprised me in his recent fights. I'll probably stay away from that one.

[Luke]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time? His striking isnt very good and his TD's and BJJ could be neutralized by Shields wrestling and BJJ

Better question, who has Maia ever beat that Shields wouldnt have?

[SPX]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time? His striking isnt very good and his TD's and BJJ could be neutralized by Shields wrestling and BJJ.

Weren't you the one just the other day telling me to bet it even though I said I didn't like the line?



Better question, who has Maia ever beat that Shields wouldnt have?

Which Shields? UFC Shields? If we're talking about UFC Shields then I think there's a good chance he could lose to Fitch for sure and maybe even DHK and Story. And he would definitely lose to Sonnen.

[Luke]

A win over Chael a half decade ago is not the same as a win over him today. Jeremy Horn and Paulo also beat him during that era. Would you favor those two fighters over Shields also?

And I'd favor Shields over everyone else you mentioned.

I'm not saying Maia isnt going to win , but when I think 80% chance of winning I think damn near lock

[SPX]

A win over Chael a half decade ago is not the same as a win over him today. Jeremy Horn and Paulo also beat him during that era. Would you favor those two fighters over Shields also?

Filho beat him two years before that. In fact, he had just beat Filho in the rematch before the Maia fight. And after the Maia fight he went 3-0, brutalizing Dan Miller, dominating Okami, dominating Marquardt and damn near beating Silva.



And I'd favor Shields over everyone else you mentioned.

I'd probably favor Shields over Story and DHK, but I could see those fights going either way. And I would favor Fitch to beat him.



I'm not saying Maia isnt going to win , but when I think 80% chance of winning I think damn near lock

Shields' striking has been a bit surprising of late but I still think Maia is a better striker and I also think he's a better grappler. Shields won't knock him out and won't sub him, and if Maia's better everywhere then it's also unlikely Shields will decision him, so outside of something flukey Maia should win. Hence 80%.

[Luke]

^^^You're nuts. Their wrestling and BJJ are going counteract each other and it's going to end up being a 5 round kickboxing match that by the end you're going to be spazzing because each rd was a close rd.

[SPX]

I could see that being a possibility too. We won't really know until the fight happens. You should know by now that this is a guessing game. There's no point in acting like you've got it all figured out.

[Luke]

I have spoken..../ discussion

[poopoo333]

If you really like this fight to go the distance, you are getting a good price imo

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/713.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[edman5555]

I like assuncao, beltran, thiago silva and demian maia.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't know what to think of Palhares at 170. Is he going to be like Maia or will he be a different fighter off the roids? I think you have to favor Pierce but no way I would take Pierce at -253. At +200, I will probably put a little something on Palhares.

Maia will win barring Shields coming to wrestle. I think Shields can take Maia down and Maia has all but given up playing from bottom. He basically only goes for the half guard/single leg from bottom. So, Maia is going to win. I will probably bet the distance prop because I don't think either man will get a finish here.

T. Silva should beat Hammill. Don't see any way around that. Hammill is going to charge forward like a bull, maybe Silva will gas out.

E. Silva should beat DHK too IMO. DHK probably won't be able to get him down, and if he does, I don't know that he will do much better there. Silva is dynamic and DHK has one out, top control.

All the favorites will win IMO.

[Mr. IWS]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time?

80% of the time, he wins every time.

::handshake::

[edman5555]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time? His striking isnt very good and his TD's and BJJ could be neutralized by Shields wrestling and BJJ

Better question, who has Maia ever beat that Shields wouldnt have?

I think fitch and shields are somewhat similar. After what maia did to fitch i have to favor him in this fight.

[edman5555]

I don't know what to think of Palhares at 170. Is he going to be like Maia or will he be a different fighter off the roids? I think you have to favor Pierce but no way I would take Pierce at -253. At +200, I will probably put a little something on Palhares.

Maia will win barring Shields coming to wrestle. I think Shields can take Maia down and Maia has all but given up playing from bottom. He basically only goes for the half guard/single leg from bottom. So, Maia is going to win. I will probably bet the distance prop because I don't think either man will get a finish here.

T. Silva should beat Hammill. Don't see any way around that. Hammill is going to charge forward like a bull, maybe Silva will gas out.

E. Silva should beat DHK too IMO. DHK probably won't be able to get him down, and if he does, I don't know that he will do much better there. Silva is dynamic and DHK has one out, top control.

All the favorites will win IMO.

I guess me and you are the only ones that like silva. I also think he is way to dynamic for dhk to get him down. That is exactly what i was thinking.

[edman5555]

What do you think about maldanado vs beltran scientist?

[MMA_scientist]

What do you think about maldanado vs beltran scientist?

I don't bet against Beltran. Maldonado should be better standing, but Beltran will probably clinch him to death. I really don't know, coin toss. At the current odds, Beltran.

[edman5555]

Yesh i figure beltran should be able to outwrestle him.

[Luke]

I think fitch and shields are somewhat similar. After what maia did to fitch i have to favor him in this fight.

A win over Fitch now doesnt mean what it did three years ago. By those standards Josh Burkman is a top 3 WW

[edman5555]

A win over Fitch now doesnt mean what it did three years ago. By those standards Josh Burkman is a top 3 WW

I don't think Fitch has really gone that far downhill. I think his competition has just gotten better.

[poopoo333]

I really feel Maia is just a bad match up for Fitch..said it before they fought too. Fitch has never done well against guys that come forward immediately and try to put him on his back and that's exactly what Maia did to DHK and Rick Story.

[edman5555]

Look at what fitch did to erick silva. Then look at what he did to jason high or whatever his name was. Silva is very good. Josh burkman is also a good fighter.

[Luke]

Silva would win a rematch imo

[edman5555]

I didnt see the fight but i saw on sherdog that he won round two.

[edman5555]

Anyone picking Dillashaw over Assuncao? My first reaction was Assuncao. Seems a lot of other people like Dillashaw.

[trotterz]

I like Dillashaw over Assuncao. But you can never count Assuncao out

[Luke]

Brb, need to figure out who these two midgets are before giving an opinion

[trotterz]

Team alpha male is a really good camp and all of the fighters looked so much iimproved everytime they fight. I do favor Dillashaw bit the odds are high.

[poopoo333]

I don't like this card because I'm too lazy to research it. I wish the oddscast show with Luca and Kalikas was still free..they gave good input. Now they charge for it which is stupid...then again I guess there are actually people out there who pay people for betting selections lol

[Luke]

I'd rather pay Luca to stop whining on twitter than for his picks.

[edman5555]

Thisgo silva misses weight.

[Luke]

Thisgo silva misses weight.


Weigh in video? Hook a nigga up

[SPX]

Thisgo silva misses weight.

If anyone was gonna miss I figured it would be Paul Harris.

[edman5555]

True. Pretty suprising.

[Svino]

I'm not surprised that a guy who failed two recent drug tests has found another way to fuck up his career.

[edman5555]

According to his ufc profile he has been training pretty hard. Maybe he ate too many funyuns.

[Svino]

Interesting judges call on Assuncao over Dillashaw.

[trotterz]

I think that TJ won ... but it was not a robbery. The fight was close and the crowd was really loud everytime Assuncao was landing

[Svino]

Dammit, what was Pierce thinking!?

[Luke]

Dammit, what was Pierce thinking!?

He wanted to go home early. Why are you not in the chat box?

[Svino]

Looks like Palhares cost himself a SotN bonus, and the Brazilian commission may want to review his actions, too:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/10/9/4822394/ufc-rousimar-palhares-vs - mike-pierce-brazilian-commission-review-stoppage-leglock-submission?ut m_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/10/9/4822394/ufc-rousimar-palhares-vs-mike-pierce-brazilian-commission-review-stoppage-leglock-submission?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

[poopoo333]

Today in "Stop pretending Maldonado has a legit boxing record": in going 22-0, the first 20 opponents he faced had a .151 win percentage
///

[SPX]

Joe Silva going nuts in the background. I think it could be interpreted a lot of different ways.


http://images.4chan.org/sp/src/1381368598294.gif

[Svino]

Shields: Takedowns: 1 of 12, Guard Passes: 5, Reversals: 1
Maia: Takedowns: 3 of 7, Guard Passes: 1, Reversals: 0

Looks like a case of the better wrestler (Maia) getting tooled on the ground by the superior BJJ guy (Shields).

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4475

[SPX]

Don't you mean . . . AMERICAN jiu-jitsu?

[Svino]

Ah yes. Of course.

USA! USA! USA!

[edman5555]

I missed the maia and beltran fights. Who did you guys have winning them?

[Svino]

I thought Maia, Beltran, and Dillashaw all won their fights.

According to mmadecisions, people tend to think Shields, Beltran and Dillashaw won.

It also seems that the journalists who picked Shields gave him round 1, while the actual judges who picked him gave him round 5.

[Luke]

I missed the maia and beltran fights. Who did you guys have winning them?

I had Beltran winning 29-28 and Shields 48-47

[MMA_scientist]

Shields: Takedowns: 1 of 12, Guard Passes: 5, Reversals: 1
Maia: Takedowns: 3 of 7, Guard Passes: 1, Reversals: 0

Looks like a case of the better wrestler (Maia) getting tooled on the ground by the superior BJJ guy (Shields).

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4475

Thre were zero guard passes by either man in that fight. I defy anyone to show me a guard pass that happened in that fight. Perhaps that is part of the MMa scoring problem. Maia scored a couple of advantages but if that was a grappling match, all the points were scored off takedowns. Maia would have won on points and by decision (because of his more advantageous positioning- having Shields in turtle with one hook, etc).

[Svino]

Thre were zero guard passes by either man in that fight. I defy anyone to show me a guard pass that happened in that fight. Perhaps that is part of the MMa scoring problem. Maia scored a couple of advantages but if that was a grappling match, all the points were scored off takedowns. Maia would have won on points and by decision (because of his more advantageous positioning- having Shields in turtle with one hook, etc).

Yeah, I think FightMetric uses their "passes" category to mean "dominant positions obtained".

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I think FightMetric uses their "passes" category to mean "dominant positions obtained".

Still. At what point did either man have a dominant position. Unless they are counting top position inside guard dominant. In which case... ok. The decision was fine IMO, but make it because Shields had more "riding time" so to speak, rather than that he achieved any position.

[Svino]

Still. At what point did either man have a dominant position. Unless they are counting top position inside guard dominant. In which case... ok. The decision was fine IMO, but make it because Shields had more "riding time" so to speak, rather than that he achieved any position.

They are counting half-guard. Shields would briefly pass into Maia's half-guard on several occasions.

Edit: and as far as *actual* judging rather than FM judging goes, I think riding time is probably the big consideration.

[Luke]

Rousimar Palhares is banned from UFC. won't ever fight for them again

......

[edman5555]

......

Good for the ufc and the fighters. That guy is an asshole. He doesnt deserve to fight in the ufc.

[edman5555]

Dammit, what was Pierce thinking!?

Maybe he wanted to wear palharaes out with a lot of activity right away? Not sure taking him down was necessary to do that but it could have been the thought process.

[Svino]

"Hah, that dumb oaf will never tap me out; my ligaments are invincib – OH GOD THE PAIN!"

[edman5555]

Rousimar Palhares’ former coach Murilo Bustamante, head of the Brazilian Top Team, says he is not surprised about Palhares’ latest controversial incident in the UFC Octagon, nor that he has now been cut by the organization and banned for life. Bustamante toldfightersonlymag.com about a tendency to do the same thing in training, injuring teammates played a role in Palhares’s switch last year from BTT to Team Nogueira.

“I wouldn’t normally say anything because usually what happens inside Brazilian Top Team stays inside Brazilian Top Team,” said Bustamante. “But Rousimar has been talking a lot of bulls— about my team so I feel I am free to say what I think as well.”“In the beginning I thought it was because he was naive or had too much nervous energy during the fights.“But then he caused a lot of incidents inside my academy during his camps and I changed my mind. I got tired of seeing how he hurts people so often when he is sparring, especially when he has a fight coming up. We used to argue every time it happened, so we argued a lot.“That was a reason – together with his nonsense excuses every time he lost a fight – that our relationship started to get bitter.“I actually hired a psychologist to help me with him but, as we have seen, it didn’t work.”

[edman5555]

Its too bad Rhousimar is leaving. We could of had Rhousimar versus Maia at 170.

[Luke]

Would have rather saw Diaz-Palhares

[SPX]

Rousimar Palhares’ former coach Murilo Bustamante, head of the Brazilian Top Team, says he is not surprised about Palhares’ latest controversial incident in the UFC Octagon, nor that he has now been cut by the organization and banned for life. Bustamante toldfightersonlymag.com about a tendency to do the same thing in training, injuring teammates played a role in Palhares’s switch last year from BTT to Team Nogueira.

“I wouldn’t normally say anything because usually what happens inside Brazilian Top Team stays inside Brazilian Top Team,” said Bustamante. “But Rousimar has been talking a lot of bulls— about my team so I feel I am free to say what I think as well.”“In the beginning I thought it was because he was naive or had too much nervous energy during the fights.“But then he caused a lot of incidents inside my academy during his camps and I changed my mind. I got tired of seeing how he hurts people so often when he is sparring, especially when he has a fight coming up. We used to argue every time it happened, so we argued a lot.“That was a reason – together with his nonsense excuses every time he lost a fight – that our relationship started to get bitter.“I actually hired a psychologist to help me with him but, as we have seen, it didn’t work.”

I don't know what Palhares's problem is. I don't think he aims to be a bad guy or an asshole, but he obviously has some kind of mental block that keeps him from understanding how to act like a normal person. He is literally dangerous in the cage (and apparently also in training), and not in the way that all fighters are dangerous. He is a liability.

Still, I kind of hope he gets picked up by Bellator or WSOF, and I assume he will. Bjorn likes picking up problem children anyway. War Machine, Falcao, Brett Rogers, etc.

[Svino]

Rebney has said he won't have him in Bellator. Maybe he can sign with WSOF and fight Okami.