8-29-13

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::clap::

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NCAA Football Game Picks

North Carolina at South Carolina

The Gamecocks kick-off the season looking to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against ACC opponents. South Carolina is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Gamecocks favored by 20. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-11). Here are all of this week's lined games.


THURSDAY, AUGUST 29
Time Posted: 2:00 p.m. EST (8/23)


Game 133-134: North Carolina at South Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 86.732; South Carolina 106.782
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 20; 51
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 11; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-11); Under


Game 135-136: UNLV at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 72.638; Minnesota 84.863
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 56
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 14; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+14); Over


Game 137-138: Tulsa at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 85.140; Bowling Green 90.618
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-3 1/2); Under


Game 139-140: Akron at Central Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 69.033; Central Florida 88.962
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 20; 59
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 22 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+22 1/2); Over


Game 141-142: Utah State at Utah (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 96.112; Utah 88.288
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Utah by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+3); Over


Game 143-144: Mississippi at Vanderbilt (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 102.620; Vanderbilt 97.747
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3); Under


Game 145-146: Rutgers at Fresno State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 85.720; Fresno State 88.721
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3; 60
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 10; 55
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+10); Over


Game 147-148: USC at Hawaii (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 104.454; Hawaii 64.769
Dunkel Line: USC by 39 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: USC by 22 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-22 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler's Week One CFB Thoughts

UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.

Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.

Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.

La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.

FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.

Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.

Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.

BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.

Alabama-V-Tech: You guys know all about these teams. I think.

Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.

Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.

Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.

Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.

Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.

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College Football betting: Odds for FBS vs FCS games

Plenty of books do not offer odds on the early season FBS versus FCS matchups in the NCAA football calendar. Both 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/) and SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/) do, however, have odds available for this week's matchups.

*All lines courtesy of 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/) except where indicated.

Thursday, August 29

Liberty at Kent State (-14 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))
Presbyterian at Wake Forest (-38)
Indiana State at Indiana (-24)
Illinois State at Ball State (-11.5)
Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee (-32)
Southern Utah at South Alabama (-17.5 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))
Towson at Connecticut (-16.5)
Jackson State at Tulane (-24 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))
Sacramento State at San Jose State (-18 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))

Friday, August 30

Morgan State at Army (-32)
North Dakota State at Kansas State (-14)
Southern at Houston (-40)
Northern Arizona at Arizona (-35)

Saturday, August 31

Southern Illinois at Illinois (-21.5) at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)
Elon at Georgia Tech (-46)
Villanova at Boston College (-17.5)
William & Mary at West Virginia (-32)
Colgate at Air Force (-27.5 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))
Nicholls State at Oregon (59.5)
Eastern Washington at Oregon State (-27)
Howard at Eastern Michigan (-17 at SportsInteraction (http://www.sportsbook.ag/))
Austin Peay at Tennessee (-50.5)
McNeese State at South Florida (-20)
Murray State at Missouri (-37.5)
Wofford at Baylor (-28.5)
Eastern Illinois (-15)
Northern Iowa at Iowa State (-6.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ras

va +3
New Mex
S. Miss

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LA Syndicate

Early CFB Move - USC/Hawaii Over 53

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Fezzik's Focus

NCAAF

UNDER 56.5 - North Carolina vs South Carolina

#143 Mississippi-3

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No. 6 South Carolina hosts UNC on Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Total: 56.5

The college football season kicks off Thursday night when No. 6 South Carolina hosts North Carolina.

These teams have met only once since 1991, when South Carolina won 21-15 as a 7-point road favorite in Chapel Hill in 2007. Both of these schools know how to put up points, with the Tar Heels finishing eighth in the FBS in scoring last season with 40.6 PPG, while the Gamecocks compiled 31.5 PPG despite playing in the toughest conference in the land. Although UNC has big shoes to fill with RB Giovani Bernard gone, QB Bryn Renner returns along with his top two receivers from 2012. Now healthy, South Carolina QB Connor Shaw should be able to march his team down the field against a Heels defense that struggled late last season. On the other hand, the Gamecocks defense is one of the nation’s best, led by projected No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney. North Carolina is 9-5 ATS (64%) in non-ACC action over the past three seasons, but South Carolina is 17-11 ATS (61%) at home since 2009, and 13-9 ATS (59%) when favored since 2011.

UNC head coach Larry Fedora’s sped-up spread offense took off last year, but it's not clear what the running game will look like in 2013, especially with RB A.J. Blue (433 rush yds, 9 TD) questionable with a hamstring injury. With Blue hobbled, sophomore RB Romar Morris (386 rush yds, 5.6 YPC) will likely get the majority of carries early in the season. Underrated senior QB Bryn Renner (3,356 pass yds, 28 TD, 7 INT) will continually hone in on both WR Quinshad Davis (776 rec. yds, 5 TD) and TE Eric Ebron (625 rec. yds, 4 TD). Renner had great protection last year, as the UNC offensive line surrendered just 11 sacks, but with three lost starters on the O-Line and Clowney on the other side of the ball in hot pursuit, the senior might get a little jittery in the pocket. Carolina's 4-2-5 defense allowed 32.9 PPG in conference play last year, and said goodbye to its two best defenders in DT Sylvester Williams and LB Kevin Reddick. DE Kareem Martin (4 sacks) and S Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 INT) are quality returning players, but this unit may struggle to stop quality passing offenses like South Carolina has. UNC gave up a hefty 247 passing YPG last year (83rd in FBS).

Connor Shaw is coming off a solid year (1,956 pass yds, 17 TD, 7 INT; 435 rush yds, 3 TD) but he was slowed by a foot injury, but after offseason surgery, he appears ready to flourish as a senior. Shaw has a 17-3 career record as a starter, with the .850 winning percentage setting a school record. With top WR Ace Sanders gone, WR Bruce Ellington (600 rec. yds, 7 TD) should assume the No. 1 role. Ellington and WR Damiere Byrd have both been bothered by hamstring injuries, but are both expected to play on Thursday. The running game is in much better shape with the explosive sophomore RB trio of Mike Davis (275 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 2 TD), Brandon Wilds and Shon Carson running behind a veteran offensive line. Speaking of lines, DE Jadeveon Clowney finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2012 after racking up 13 sacks and a school-record 23.5 Tackles For Loss. The Gamecocks wound up with 43 sacks (6th in FBS) while ranking 11th in total defense (316 YPG) last season. Although all the South Carolina starting linebackers are gone, the secondary is quite strong, featuring CBs Victor Hampton (40 tackles, 6 PD) and Jimmy Legree (44 tackles, 3 INT, 6 PD).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vandy Seeks 4th Straight Win over Ole Miss Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -3, Total: 53.5

The powerful SEC begins its 2013 season on Thursday night when Ole Miss visits Vanderbilt.

Although the Rebels have won 13 of the past 20 meetings in this series, the Commodores have won three straight (SU & ATS) in this matchup. Last November, a last-minute TD pass gave Vandy a 27-26 road victory in a very pass-heavy game for both teams. The last time theses schools met in Nashville in 2011, Vanderbilt put a 30-7 whooping on Ole Miss. However, Hugh Freeze led the Rebels to a five-game turnaround in his first season as head coach, and his team returns most of its offensive skill-position production, plus 10 starters from a stout defense. The Commodores also have a stingy defense and enter 2013 on a seven-game win streak, but they’re replacing their best two offensive players, QB Jordan Rogers and RB Zac Stacy. Both of these schools have some favorable trends going for them on Thursday. Ole Miss went 5-1 ATS (83%) on the road, 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference play and 5-1 ATS (83%) as a favorite last year. But in the past two seasons, Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS (85%) at home, 10-6 ATS (63%) in SEC action and 8-5 ATS (62%) when getting points.

Hugh Freeze’s fast-paced spread offense improved from 281 YPG in 2011 (116th in FBS) to 424 YPG last year (46th in FBS), which helped transform a 2-10 team into a 7-6 club. QB Bo Wallace (2,994 pass yds, 22 TD 17 INT; 390 rush yds, 8 TD) missed the spring due to shoulder surgery, but is 100 percent healed. The junior lit up Vandy's secondary for 403 yards on 31-of-49 completions (8.2 yards per attempt), 1 TD and 0 INT in last year's loss. Wallace's top-three pass catchers all return with WRs Donte Moncrief (979 rec. yds, 10 TD), Vince Sanders (504 rec. yds, 4 TD) and Ja-Mes Logan (490 rec. yds), but Sanders broke his collarbone in practice in early August and will be out for six weeks. Both Logan (8 rec, 160 yds) and Moncrief (8 rec, 74 yds) had big performances against the Commodores last year though, catching eight passes apiece for a combined 234 yards. The Rebels are not one-dimensional though with top RB Jeff Scott (846 rush yds, 6 TD), but Vanderbilt's defense held him to a paltry 47 yards on 24 carries in last year's meeting. The Rebels’ tremendous defensive line (103 TFL, T-4th in FBS; 38 sacks, T-11th in FBS) will remain disruptive with the nation’s top recruit in DE Robert Nkemdiche. His brother, LB Denzel Nkemdiche (82 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT, 4 FF), was the star of last year’s 4-2-5 set, along with LB Mike Marry (78 tackles) and CB Charles Sawyer (63 tackles, 8 PD). Although the Rebels allowed 247 passing YPG (82nd in FBS), they did rack up 2.2 turnovers per game (T-23rd in nation).

Vanderbilt is eager to start the season on the field after a summer filled with distractions stemming from four former football players being accused of a raping an unconscious woman in a campus dormitory. This legal mess includes No. 2 WR Chris Boyd (774 rec. yds, 5 TD), who was charged as an accessory after the fact and is suspended from the team indefinitely. Boyd caught the game-winning TD pass with 52 seconds left to beat the Rebels last year. On the field, the Commodores will turn to new QB Austyn Carta-Samuels who amassed 4,413 total yards and 25 TD in two years at Wyoming. He'll look frequently to superstar WR Jordan Matthews (1,323 rec. yds, 8 TD) who caught nine passes for 153 yards and a 52-yard touchdown in last year's victory over Ole Miss. With top Zac Stacy gone, RBs Wesley Tate (376 rush yds, 8 TD) and Brian Kimbrow (413 rush yds, 3 TD) will likely share the workload with a quality offensive line to run behind. Tate totaled 59 yards and a touchdown in the 2012 win in Oxford. This excellent Vanderbilt defense (18.7 PPG, 15th in FBS) is propelled by DEs Kyle Woestmann (5 sacks, 2 FF), Caleb Azubike (4 sacks) and Walker May (3 sacks, 7 QBH), but the most valuable player is LB Chase Garnham (84 tackles, 6.5 sacks). CB Andre Hal (48 tackles, 14 PD, 2 INT) stabilizes the stingy pass defense that finished 14th in the nation with 192 passing YPG allowed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST

POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER

4* Florida State
3* Washington U
3* Utah U
2* Florida Atlantic
2* S.M.U.
2* Ohio State/Buffalo - (Under)

Underdog Play Of The Week - Toledo

Technical Play Of The Week - U.C.L.A.

Revenge Play Of The Week - Utah U

Situational Play Of The Week - C.Michigan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB N CAROLINA at S CAROLINA

Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

CFB UTAH ST at UTAH

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (UTAH ST) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season
39-15 since 1997. ( 72.2% 0.0 units )

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NorthCoast

NCAAF Early Bird Play

N. TEX -14.5 vs Idaho

Underdog - #154 SMU+6

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NCAAF

Week 1

Thursday's games
South Carolina is 22-15-1 as a home favorite under Spurrier, 9-5-1 last two years; they’re 11-7-1 vs spread in last 19 non-SEC games. Gamecocks have two quality QBs, one a thrower, one a better runner- they play conference rival Georgia next, likely will hold some tactics back for that bigger game. Tar Heels have a quality senior QB but lost three starters on OL; they’re 15-9 vs spread in last 24 non-ACC games, but are 2-4-1 in last seven games as an underdog.

Minnesota (-8) won 30-27 at UNLV LY, outgaining Rebels 478-275; Gophers are 1-4 vs spread in last five tries as double digit favorites with two SU losses. UNLV is 4-15 in last 19 tries as a road dog; they finally have good QB in soph Sherry who had rough debut vs Gophers LY (16-35/116). Minnesota has all five starters back on OL but have soph QB with only seven starts- they’re 7-11 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

Tulsa-Bowling Green both have senior QB’s, but Falcons’ QB has 35 career starts, Tulsa’s only 18; Hurricane won last meeting 33-20 (-17) in 2010, after waxing Falcons 63-7 in a bowl three years before that. Tulsa covered seven of last nine as a road dog; they’re 20-15 in last 35 non-league games. BG is 6-5 as a home favorite under Clawson; they’re 9-9 in last 18 non-MAC tilts and have four starters back on OL (Tulsa has two).

Central Florida (-24) waxed Akron 56-14 LY; teams split six games in series, with four of six decided by 14 or less points. UCF is 21-12-1 as a home favorite since '05; they've got their QB back with three starters on OL, while Zips have new QB this year in Bowden's second year. Since 2004, Akron is 15-18-1 as road underdogs. UCF covered 13 of its last 21 non-conference games.

Utah State (+7) beat Utah 27-20 LY, its first win in last 13 series games, but Anderson is HC at Wisconsin now; Aggies have four senior starters on OL and prolific junior QB Keeton (21 starts) back- they've lost their last six visits here, but covered four of last five-- they're 14-2 vs spread in last 16 games as road dog. Utah is 17-14-2 as home favorite since '06; since '08, they're 11-9-1 in non-league games. Utes have soph QB and three new starters on OL. State ia 15-5 vs spread out of conference.

Underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in Ole Miss' last 30 road games; over the last decade, Rebels are just 4-12 vs spread as road favorites. Vanderbilt won four of last five games with Ole Miss; road teams won four of the five games; teams split last two meetings here. Both teams have veteran OLs and their QB back. Vandy is 4-1 as home dog under Franklin, after being 8-18 from '04-'10. Commodores are 11-2 vs spread at home under Franklin. Underdogs covered four of last five series games.

Fresno State was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 3-18-1 in that role before DeRuyter got to town ('06-'11); Bulldogs have senior QB with 26 starts, three starters back on OL. Rutgers is 15-7 in last 22 tries as road dog but is just 11-17 in last 28 non-league games. Knights have QB with 18 starts and veteran OL. Fresno is 11-9 vs spread in last 20 non-league games. Fresno (+3.5) won 24-7 at Rutgers in '08, only previous meeting.

USC hasn't named starting QB, which shouldn't matter here, but they're inexperienced under center, and have Pac-12 opener vs Washington State next. Trojans are thin because of probation, but have four starters back on OL- they're 7-17 in last 24 tries as road favorite after being 0-5 LY-- they're 2-9 vs spread in non-league games under Kiffin. Hawai'i fired its new OC during summer, a red flag, especially with an inexperienced QB; they covered once in last five tries as home dog. USC won last five series meetings by average score of 56-21.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

UNLV + 14.5

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Chicago Syndicate

Tulsa/Bowling Green Over 48

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Nothcoast

Power Plays Newsletter

2* #135 UNLV
4* #137 Tulsa
1* #143 Ole Miss
3* #147 USC

2* #149 Western Mich.
4* #151 FAU

4* #159 Buffalo
4* #168 Notre Dame
4* #172 Va Tech
2* #177 Kentucky
2* #180 Marshall
3* #182 Ok.St
3* #184 OU
4* #186 Southern Miss
3* #188 Texas
4* #191 Toledo
4* #194 Arkansas
4.5* #198 North Texas
4.5* #210 Washington
4* #214 California

4.5* #219 Florida St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

NY Giants at New England

The Giants look to bounce back from last week's 24-21 OT loss to the Jets as they finish the preseason in New England on Thursday. New York is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2). Here are all of this week's picks.


THURSDAY, AUGUST 29
Time Posted: 12:00 p.m. EST (8/27)


Game 101-102: Philadelphia at NY Jets (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.678; NY Jets 116.701
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 37
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under


Game 103-104: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 110.056; Cincinnati 127.555
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 17 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over


Game 105-106: Detroit at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.425; Buffalo 123.287
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 36
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Under


Game 107-108: Jacksonville at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.644; Atlanta 110.509
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-2 1/2); Over


Game 109-110: Pittsburgh at Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 121.420; Carolina 121.650
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under


Game 111-112: Washington at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.770; Tampa Bay 125.607
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Over


Game 113-114: New Orleans at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.220; Miami 125.322
Dunkel Line: Miami by 8; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 36
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Over


Game 115-116: NY Giants at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 121.403; New England 120.330
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 36
Vegas Line: New England by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2); Under


Game 117-118: Tennessee at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.515; Minnesota 119.048
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4 1/2); Over


Game 119-120: Baltimore at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 117.616; St. Louis 126.509
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9; 35
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-7); Under


Game 121-122: Cleveland at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 125.965; Chicago 119.515
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2); Over


Game 123-124: Green Bay at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 113.837; Kansas City 121.285
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under


Game 125-126: Houston at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 123.435; Dallas 124.226
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 35
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Under


Game 127-128: Arizona at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 123.452; Denver 121.506
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Pick; 38
Dunkel Pick: Arizona; Over


Game 129-130: San Francisco at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 123.859; San Diego 120.509
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Pick; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco; Under


Game 131-132: Oakland at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 116.708; Seattle 137.779
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 21; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

XNFL Game of the Year - Bears/Browns Under 39.5

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LA Syndicate

XNFL Top Plays

Seahawks -6.5
Broncos PK

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StatFox

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
DALLAS COWBOYS
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 8.5 (-115) / Under 8.5 (-115)
OFFENSE: Jason Garrett will give up his play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan this year. That should mean more action for the run- ning game with RB DeMarco Murray taking a full workload. Garrett runs an aggressive Air Coryell passing game with WR Dez Bryant now the clear-cut No. 1 option. QB Tony Romo often comes back to TE Jason Witten for shorter targets, and WR Miles Austin does more catch-and-run work over the middle.

Defense: Dallas will switch to a 4-3 under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and D-Line coach Rod Marinelli, the DC for Chicago's amazing 44-turn- over defense last year. This will hopefully increase the team's paltry 16 takeaways as DeMarcus Ware (111 career sacks) shifts to DE, Sean Lee mans the MLB spot and Bruce Carter explodes from the WLB position. The Cowboys also inked two new starters via free agency, SLB Justin Durant and FS Will Allen.

Bottom line: The ultra-talented Cowboys have a pretty manageable schedule (ranked 21st) with just one road game versus a 2012 playoff team (at Washington). They should be favored in at least six home games, with the exception of Denver and Green Bay, and win the tight NFC East.

PLAY ON: OVER 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookiesHunter

55-27 run

3* U57.5 SC/NC
3* Utah St. +2.5

2* U54.5 Rutgers/Fresno St.
2* U54 USC/Hawaii

1* Ole Miss -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to beware: Bowling Green Falcons

Week 1 odds: -3.5 vs. Tulsa

Bowling Green returns 17 starters from a 2012 squad that compiled a respectable 8-5. Some of the personnel losses, however, are key. Defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5 sacks) and linebacker Dwayne Woods graduated. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthon Samuel transferred to Florida International and offensive lineman Fahn Cooper also left in unexpected fashion.

Tulsa is a team that could capitalize on the absences of Jones and Woods in the middle of the Falcons’ defense. The Golden Hurricane finished ninth in the nation with 245.7 rushing yards per game last season while averaging 34.7 points per contest. Tulsa was 5-1 ATS in its last six games of 2012. Bowling Green, meanwhile, is 2-5 in its last seven contests out of conference.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik

Utah/Utah State Under
Vanderbilt/Mississippi Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nover
137 Tulsa / 138 Bowling Green OVER 48 Double

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

College Football
UTAH (-2.5) over Utan State
8 p.m. EST
College football begins Thursday night and there will be more than 30 games played this weekend. Today, we look at a game from Thursday's card where we will back the revenge minded Utah Utes in an early season in-state battle. Utah usually hammers State annually winning the last 12 games by an average of 22 points! But last year the Aggies stunned Utah in overtime 27-20. Utah is not going to get many wins this year playing their second year in the tough Pac-12 but they will win this one easily. Take the Utes to get REVENGE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Edwards

CFB
South Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Justice

CFB
Fresno state -9
Army-32
UCF -21
South Carolina -12
OVER 59 - SMU
OVER 44 - Michigan State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Preseason Primer Week 4 Betting Breakdown
by Sean Murphy

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (+4.5, 39.5)

Off a decisive 40-9 victory over the Patriots last week, the Lions should be content to simply go through the motions and stay healthy in Buffalo Thursday. They've saved their best football for the home faithful in the preseason under Jim Schwarz and that hasn't changed this year, going 2-0 SU and ATS at Ford Field but 0-1 on the road. Expect only cameo appearances from QB Matt Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson and the rest of the first-string offense.

Buffalo can ill-afford another injury under center with both E.J. Manuel and Kevin Kolb already sidelined. Jeff Tuel is expected to start in Week 1 and will see about a quarter of action on Thursday night. From there, we could see newcomers Matt Leinart and Thaddeus Lewis. Leinart was signed, while the team traded for Lewis in a deal with the Lions Sunday. C.J. Spiller left the team last week following a death in his family but did return Sunday. He's unlikely to play more than a series, if at all Thursday.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)

Colts DE Robert Mathis says Thursday's game is all about making final decisions on who makes the team and who goes home. "Ah, yes, the infamous Cincinnati fourth preseason game. It's make or break if you are going to make the squad or not. It means a lot. If you want to make the squad, you have to put a good showing together." Head coach Chuck Pagano likes his team's depth heading in. "We've created so much competition. We're deeper across the board at all positions, so we're going to have to let some really good football players go. They'll end up on other teams like everybody else's guys. It's going to be tough."

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis summed up his game plan for Thursday night pretty well earlier this week. "The mindset is it's a great night for our fans. It's another home game. It's a fun thing and we'll have our guys get out there and let them play a little bit, get them out, and let the other guys finish the game up that are fighting for spots. And there are guys who haven't played much who'll be on the 53-man roster that need experience." In other words, don't count on seeing much more than a brief glimpse of the projected starters on either side of the football.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+3, 40)

The quarterback competition has already been settled in Philadelphia. Michael Vick will be the starter in next week's season opener. So what can we expect from the Eagles Thursday? A lot of Nick Foles and Matt Barkley under center. Foles will get the start and likely see at least a quarter of action. Of the projected regular season starters, Kelly has indicated that only a few players in the secondary are likely to see any action at all against the Jets.

The big news out of Jets camp last weekend was the needless injury to QB Mark Sanchez in the second half of their game against the Giants. He won't play Thursday. Rex Ryan has yet to name a starter at quarterback for Thursday's game and likely won't until Thursday. There's a good chance that rookie Geno Smith will sit out as Ryan feels he's seen enough of his rookie QB in game action this month. That would leave the bulk of the action to Greg McElroy and Matt Simms, although McElroy is banged up as well.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6, 36)

The Saints will be playing on a short week after defeating the Texans in Houston Sunday. Not surprisingly, Sean Payton is expected to give his regular starters the night off, just as he has in previous Week 4 preseason contests. We have seen better production from the Saints’ backup quarterbacks this year, however, with Luke McCown and rookie Ryan Griffin taking turns carrying the load. Expect to see a lot of Griffin Thursday night.

Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the Dolphins first-string offense could see a series or two of action Thursday, but that's it. After Pat Devlin took over for Tannehill last week, we can expect veteran Matt Moore to shoulder much of the load this week. The Dolphins haven't had a great deal of preseason success under head coach Joe Philbin and are off to a 1-3 start this year.

New York Giants at New England Patriots (Pick, 38.5)

Syracuse University product Ryan Nassib will get an extended look for the Giants against the Patriots, entering in relief of Eli Manning after he sees a series or two of action. Head coach Tom Coughlin has indicated that he would like to see all four of his quarterbacks play Thursday. The Giants have dropped back-to-back games after opening the preseason with a win in Pittsburgh.

Patriots QB Tom Brady says he expects to play in Thursday's preseason finale against the Giants. Brady believes he needs additional work with his new receivers in advance of next week's season opener in Buffalo. “I think there’s always something to be gained from the competition. I think you have to go out there and always be prepared, and whatever Belichick wants to do for however long he wants to play us, that’s what we’re going to do. So we’re ready to go.”

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2, 37.5)

With RGIII and Kirk Cousins both sidelined and veteran Rex Grossman not needing any more game reps prior to the regular season, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has indicated that Pat White will start and play the entire game Thursday. Most of the Redskins starters are expected to sit out Thursday's contest.

Bucs head coach Greg Schiano has indicated that backup QB Mike Glennon will see the majority of the snaps Thursday night. "The plan is, Mike’s going to play a lot. Is he the starter? Proabably. We want Mike to keep getting repetitions. Dan is a multi-year vet who has had a lot of repitions. They’ll both play.'' The Dan he referred to was veteran QB Dan Orlovsky.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 36.5)

The Steelers backup QB competition is over, with Bruce Gradkowski winning the job. He and Landry Jones will split duty in Carolina with Ben Roethlisberger remaining on the sidelines. Pittsburgh has yet to win a game this preseason but Mike Tomlin isn't putting much emphasis on picking up a win Thursday.

Just like last year, the Panthers are likely to sit Cam Newton with Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen each playing a half. Former Giants WR Domenik Hixon is expected to make his Panthers debut. LB Jon Beason says he would like to play, but could be held out in preparation for next week's season opener.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 40)

Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has indicated that RB Maurice Jones-Drew will be held out of Thursday's game after seeing limited action against the Jets and Eagles. Starting QB Blaine Gabbert is unlikely to see much more than a series or two before giving way to veteran backup Chad Henne.

Falcons head coach Mike Smith doesn't put much stock in wins and losses in the preseason and it's shown in the Falcons play so far this month, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. With WR Roddy White already hurt, Smith won't take any chances in Thursday night's meaningless preseason finale. Don't count on even catching a glimpse of Matt Ryan or Julio Jones on the field.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (+2, 39)

Bears head coach Marc Trestman is keeping it simple on Thursday night. “I wouldn’t say all, but it’ll be close to all of the starters that sit. There’s always going to be things that happen later in the week because of injuries and things like that that we may have to play some guys but our hope is most if not all will be held out of the game.”

Browns rookie head coach Rob Chudzinksi is taking a different approach. He's leaning toward playing his starters for up to a quarter. "We’re going to approach this next game that those guys are going to play, and then I’ll make that determination later in the week as it goes on.” Cleveland had impressed in its first two preseason tilts before falling flat in Indianapolis last week.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (+4.5, 39)

Titans WR Kenny Britt will not play Thursday night after sitting out back-to-back practices due to knee soreness. No fewer than three Titans linebackers are hurt, including Akeem Ayers and Zach Brown, and none of them will suit up Thursday. As for the offensive starters, they could see a series or two but that's it.

Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier has always treated his team with kid gloves in the preseason, and that won't change this week as they take the field on a short week following Sunday's loss in San Francisco. In other words, don't expect to see much from QB Christian Ponder and the rest of the starting offense.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 36.5)

Aaron Rodgers barely broke a sweat during the preseason and while Mike McCarthy has yet to rule him out for Thursday night, there's a good chance he'll be left holding his helmet on the sidelines. Graham Harrell will get the bulk of the snaps regardless whether Rodgers sees the field against the Chiefs. The Packers have been banged up throughout the preseason and should take a cautious approach here.

Andy Reid was mum as to his team's playing rotation Thursday night. “I’ve sat the ones, I’ve played the ones for a series, I’ve played them for a quarter, I’ve done it all. The main thing you want to do is to make sure with the guys who are remaining on this team you get a good evaluation on the players.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 37.5)

With starting QB Matt Schaub and the majority of the offensive starters sitting, the Texans will split the snaps between T.J. Yates and Case Keenum in Dallas. Rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins could return to the field after missing last week's game due to a head injury suffered on August 17th against Miami.

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett hasn't revealed his gameplan for Thursday night, but chances are he'll sit his regular starters, just as he did against Miami last year. Keep in mind, Dallas still won its 2012 preseason finale by a 30-13 score. After a strong showing against the Bengals last Saturday, there's little reason for the Cowboys to push the envelope here.

Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams (-7, 38.5)

There's a reason why the Rams are the biggest favorite on the board this week. Baltimore will rest the majority of its starters, including QB Joe Flacco and WR Torrey Smith, head coach John Harbaugh revealed earlier this week. The Ravens will open the regular season in Denver exactly one week from Thursday.

Jeff Fisher takes an old school approach when it comes to playing to win in the preseason. “The philosophy has been to build reps throughout camp. That has been the way we’ve done it in the past. We may adjust that ever so slightly this week.” In other words, Rams starters will see some playing time Thursday night. Exactly how much remains to be seen.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (Pick, 38)

The Cardinals will play their starters Thursday night, but not for more than a quarter. QB Carson Palmer may not be among those suiting up, however. RB Ryan Williams is expected to get extended work out of the backfield.

After seeing extended action in last week's dress rehearsal against St. Louis, don't expect to see much of Peyton Manning or the rest of the Broncos’ first-team offense. Head coach John Fox has yet to outline his gameplan but based on past history, is likely to treat this game as little more than a walk-through.

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (Pick, 38.5)

John Harbaugh has limited QB Colin Kaepernick's workload all preseason and that isn't going to change in Week 4. The 49ers have a wealth of options at quarterback, with four different possible backups seeing time against Minnesota last Sunday night. Count on another mixed bag from San Francisco Thursday.

With a number of key injuries on both sides of the football, the Chargers will take a cautious approach to Thursday's game. Philip Rivers won't play more than a series or two, with veteran backup Charlie Whitehurst likely getting the majority of the snaps. After getting embarrassed in their preseason opener, the Chargers second and third-string defense has held up well over the last two games.

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 36.5)

QB Terrelle Pryor will start for the Raiders in Seattle Thursday. Matt Flynn will sit out as he continues to recover from a minor arm injury, possibly watching his starting job slip away for the second straight year. Pryor saw the bulk of the action in last year's preseason finale in Seattle as well.

Unlike last year, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will only get a cameo appearance against the Raiders. While Seattle always gets fired up in front of its home faithful, it certainly has little to prove this week after winning its first three preseason contests. Pete Carroll has indicated that his young players will not surprisingly get extended work in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

North Carolina Tar Heels at South Carolina Gamecocks (-12.5, 57.5)

South Carolina has never received the amount of preseason publicity that's flooded its way this summer, putting the No.7 Gamecocks in the national conversation heading into their season opener Thursday against visiting North Carolina. South Carolina is at an all-time high in the preseason polls thanks to one of the country's premier players in junior Jadeveon Clowney, who was voted the nation’s top defensive end last season and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy balloting. South Carolina also returns starting quarterback Connor Shaw, who has never lost at home as a starter for the Gamecocks.

North Carolina also returns a talented quarterback in senior Bryn Renner, who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards each of the last two seasons. Renner also welcomes back his No. 1 target in wide receiver Quinshad Davis, a South Carolina native who set freshman school records last season for receptions (61) and receiving yardage (776). Protecting Renner’s blind side will be 6-7, 305-pound left tackle James Hurst, while redshirt freshman Jon Heck won the starting job at right tackle. Both figure to be tested all night against Clowney, who recorded 13 sacks last season.

Key betting stat: Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

UNLV Runnin' Rebels at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-14, 51)

Minnesota, coming off its first bowl appearance since 2009, hosts UNLV on Thursday in the season opener for both teams. The Gophers doubled their win total from three to six last season, including a 30-27, triple-overtime win at UNLV in their 2012 opener. This matchup should have a similar feel as the teams combine to return 34 of their 44 starters from last season.

Highlighting the Gophers’ 16 returning starters is defensive tackle Ra’Shede Hageman, who had a breakout season as a junior in 2012. However, Hageman and the Minnesota defense will have their hands full with UNLV’s rushing attack, especially senior running back Tim Cornett. The Rebels enter this season with new coordinators on offense and defense, including Tim Hauck – the younger brother of coach Bobby Hauck – running the defense.

Key betting stat: Under is 8-2 in Golden Gophers' last 10 home games.

Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes (-2.5, 51)

Utah will look for its 13th win in its last 14 games against visiting Utah State as the longtime in-state rivalry continues on Thursday. The Battle of the Brothers is the 12th-longest standing rivalry in college football and heads toward its 111th installment. The Utes are 77-29-4 all-time against the Aggies and had won 12 straight before Utah State won 27-20 in overtime last season.

Utah sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson will look to turn the program around this season after starting seven games last season and throwing for seven touchdowns and 1,311 yards. The Aggies, led by junior signal caller Chuckie Keeton, are trying to build off one of the best seasons in school history.

Key betting stat: Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Mississippi Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5, 53)

Vanderbilt looks to build on the most successful two-year stretch in school history when it hosts Ole Miss on Thursday in the season opener for both teams. Senior Austyn Carta-Samuels takes over at quarterback for the Commodores, who were picked to finish fourth in the SEC East preseason media poll after a tumultuous offseason. Expectations are also high at Ole Miss, which aims to end a nine-game losing streak in SEC openers.

The Rebels signed one of the top recruiting classes in the country last spring, and several freshmen figure to play in the opener, including highly touted defensive end Robert Nkemdiche. The game features two of the top wide receivers in the conference in Vanderbilt senior Jordan Matthews and Ole Miss junior Donte Moncrief, who caught 10 touchdown passes last season. Matthews had a season-high 153 receiving yards against the Rebels last year, when Vanderbilt won its third straight game in the series.

Key betting stat: Rebels are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Fresno State Bulldogs (-10.5, 54.5)

Thursday’s season opener against Rutgers can’t come soon enough for Fresno State, which has been eager to get back on the field since its embarrassing loss to SMU in the Hawaii Bowl. Rutgers is looking to build on coach Kyle Flood’s successful first year, when the Scarlet Knights claimed a share of the Big East title. The teams are meeting for the second time ever, with Fresno State winning 24-7 in Rutgers nearly five years ago to the day.

The Bulldogs feature the Mountain West preseason offensive and defensive players of the year in quarterback Derek Carr and safety Derron Smith, and they were a near-unanimous pick to win the West Division of the Mountain West in the preseason media poll. Expectations are also high at Rutgers, which is playing one year in the new American Athletic Conference before joining the Big Ten next season. The Scarlett Knights will be tested at Bulldog Stadium, where Fresno State went 6-0 last season and outscored opponents by a total of 190 points.

Key betting stat: Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors (+23, 53.5)

The Matt Barkley era is over at Southern California and his replacement as quarterback is still in flux as the No. 24 Trojans visit Hawaii in Thursday’s season-opening contest. Coach Lane Kiffin said that sophomores Max Wittek and Cody Kessler will share the duties against the Warriors and that he won’t name a starter until after the squad arrives in Honolulu. Former USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow is head coach of Hawaii and is also running the offense.

The Warriors also feature a new quarterback as Ohio State transfer Taylor Graham – son of former NFL signal caller Kent Graham – beat out incumbent Sean Schroeder (11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions in 2012) for the starting job and is being counted on to rev up an attack that ranked 118th out of 120 FBS teams in total offense (297.4 yards) and scored only 21.2 points per game last season. While the Trojans are sorting out the quarterbacking situation, there are no issues with junior Marqise Lee, who finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting and won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best receiver after setting a school record with 118 receptions. USC senior running back Silas Redd (905 rushing yards, nine TDs in 2012) will miss the contest after undergoing knee surgery five months ago to repair a meniscus tear.

Key betting stat: Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's American League games:

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (-166, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer has thrown seven consecutive quality starts, and has given up two or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 outings.

Hot batting stat: Detroit sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are a combined 9-for-18 lifetime against Athletics starter Bartolo Colon.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-1 in Oakland's last eight games with umpire Paul Emmel behind home plate.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (+107, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Twins right-hander Samuel Deduno is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 25 career innings against the Royals.

Hot batting stat: Twins 3B Trevor Plouffe has three home runs in 20 career at-bats against Royals starter Bruce Chen.

Weather: There will be a 30 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms at gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with the wind blowing in from right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-2-1 in Chen's last 11 starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-148, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Angels lefty Jason Vargas is just 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA in eight road starts.

Cold batting stat: Rays 3B Evan Longoria is hitting .242/.326/.478 in 157 day-game at-bats.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Los Angeles has won its last eight Thursday games.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-154, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman tossed two-hit ball over seven shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the Red Sox on July 26.

Hot batting stat: Baltimore C Matt Wieters has had the upper hand on Red Sox starter Jon Lester, hitting .359 with seven RBIs in 39 career at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 45 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Baltimore is 9-2 in Tillman's last 11 road starts.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (+124, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Houston right-hander Jordan Lyles had his worst start of the season in his last encounter with Seattle, lasting just four innings after surrendering 10 runs on eight hits.

Hot batting stat: Astros OF Brandon Barnes is batting .400 with three doubles, a triple and a homer in 35 at-bats against Seattle in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-0 in Houston's last six series openers.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, weather forecast and stats as of 12:55 p.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's National League games:

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-112, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies right-hander Ethan Martin lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last start, charged with three runs on three hits and three walks against Arizona.

Cold batting stat: Mets 1B Ike Davis is hitting a paltry .160 with three home runs in 119 day-game at-bats.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right-center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-2 in the Mets' last 12 Thursday games.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-220, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 28 career innings against the Marlins.

Hot batting stat: Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton is batting .286/.433/.519 with four home runs in 77 at-bats against left-handers.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1-1 in Miami right-hander Tom Koehler's last six starts on five days' rest.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-171, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 117 strikeouts over 104 career innings against the Pirates.

Cold batting stat: Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez has struggled mightly against Gallardo, going just 1-for-17 with eight strikeouts in his career.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The Pirates are 0-5 in Cole's last five outings following a quality start in his previous appearance.

Interleague

Cleveland Indians at Atlanta Braves (-156, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Kris Medlen has walked just one batter in each of his last eight outings, recording four quality starts over that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Atlanta C Brian McCann is hitting .318 in 22 career at-bats against Cleveland starter Ubaldo Jimenez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Atlanta is 15-3 in Medlen's last 18 starts on five days' rest.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, weather forecast and stats as of 1:05 p.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 4

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 4 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 4 over bets

Dallas Cowboys (11-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 4)

Points for in 2013 preseason: 18 ppg
Points allowed in 2013 preseason: 17.25 ppg

The Cowboys looked pretty good in their Week 3 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dallas prevailed 24-18 with Tony Romo going 13-for-18 with 137 passing yards and a pair of touchdown passes. The game finished just under the 43.5-point total and moved Dallas to 2-2 O/U in the preseason. The Cowboys are the No. 1 'over' team since 1995 posting a record of 13-4 O/U in the final game of the preseason schedule, including a Week 4 victory for 'over' bettors one season ago. Dallas closes out its preseason against the Houston Texans Thursday.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-12 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 4)

Points for in 2013 preseason: 22.33 ppg
Points allowed in 2013 preseason: 21.33 ppg

The Eagles are 5-0 O/U in Week 4 of the past five preseasons and played over the total in Week 3 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Philly was victorious by a count of 31-24 and racked up 452 yards of offense in the process. Michael Vick has been named the Eagles starting QB, but backup Nick Foles was a very efficient 10-of-11 for 112 yards in relief against the Jags. The New York Jets host the Eagles in each teams' final preseason tilt.

Best NFL preseason Week 4 under bets

Detroit Lions (10-7 SU, 5-12 O/U in Week 4)

Points for in 2013 preseason: 24 ppg
Points allowed in 2013 preseason: 16.66 ppg

Quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Kellen Moore led the Lions to a big 40-9 Week 3 victory over the New England Patriots and improved to 2-1 O/U through their first three preseason games. The pair combined to go 21-for-37 and 316 yards passing and three TDs as they picked apart a hapless Pats secondary. The Lions are on the road versus the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. Their only 'under' thus far this preseason has also been away from Ford Field.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-10 SU, 6-11 O/U in week 4)

Points for in 2013 preseason: 17.33 ppg
Points allowed in 2013 preseason: 17.33 ppg

The new-look Chiefs played over the total in Week 3, but played in a pair of low-scoring games in their first two times out this preseason. New QB Alex Smith played very well and looks to be settling in nicely with new head coach Andy Reid. The defense has kept the Chiefs in each of their preseason games and has only given up four TDs thus far. The Chiefs are home to face the Green Bay Packers in their final tune-up for the regular season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

S. Carolina -13
Bowling Green -3.5
Vanderbilt +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the stats: New coaches struggle ATS in opener
By MARC LAWRENCE

With the NFL preseason headed toward the finish line, and the 2013 college football season about to engage, let’s take a quick spin around both worlds.

Coaches who try

One of the key ingredients in successfully handicapping the NFL preseason is identifying coaches who put an emphasis on winning above all else.

Three such coaches entered the 2013 exhibition slate with sterling preseason records, namely Baltimore’s John Harbaugh (13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS), Detroit’s Jim Schwartz (12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS) and Seattle’s Pete Carroll (17-12 SU and 19-9-1 ATS).

Collectively the triumvirate has not let their backers down this preseason, compiling a sterling 7-2 SU/ATS mark.

...And those who don’t

On the other side of the street are coaches that could care less about the preseason scoreboard.

Their purpose is to utilize the exhibition season to evaluate talent and put the team in the best position it can entering the regular campaign.

Three coaches fit this bill entering the 2013 preseason, including Atlanta’s Mike Smith (7-13 SU and 8-10-2 ATS), Miami’s Joe Philbin (0-4 SUATS) and Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier (3-5 SUATS).

Holding true to their colors, this tame trio has combined to go 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS this preseason.

New kids on the block

The 2013 college football season welcomes no less than 31 head coaches debuting with new teams this season.

A disturbing stat is the fact that these newbie’s tend to struggle in the maiden voyages, going 112-145-8 combined in lined openers since 1990.

Those who inherit a bad team (four or fewer wins last season) struggle the worst, going 45-75-6 ATS.

Put these new coach/bad teams up against a quality foe (one who won six or more games last season) and they dip even further, going 6-62 SU and 20-42-3 ATS.

According to our research, a long day could be in the offing for Brett Bielema (Arkansas), Sonny Dykes (California), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), Doug Martin (New Mexico State), Matt Ruhle (Temple) and P. J. Fleck (Western Michigan).

Elevator up, elevator down

With college football totals becoming more popular these days, here’s a snapshot of the best and worst teams last season…

• Best OVER team: Louisiana Tech (11-1 O/U)
• Best UNDER team: Bowling Green (2-10 O/U)
• Most combined PPG offense + defense: Louisiana Tech (90 PPG)
• Least combined PPG offense + defense): Rutgers (35.7 PPG)
• Highest average O/U line: Baylor (74.8)
• Lowest average O/U line: Connecticut (43.6)
• Highest average O/U margin: Louisiana Tech (+20.7)
• Lowest average O/U margin: Bowling Green (-10.4)

Stat of the Week

The Seattle Seahawks are 20-4 SU and 22-2 ATS versus AFC opponents during the preseason since 2004.

[ziggylasvegas]

NFL Preseason Primer Week 4 Betting Breakdown
by Sean Murphy

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (+4.5, 39.5)

Off a decisive 40-9 victory over the Patriots last week, the Lions should be content to simply go through the motions and stay healthy in Buffalo Thursday. They've saved their best football for the home faithful in the preseason under Jim Schwarz and that hasn't changed this year, going 2-0 SU and ATS at Ford Field but 0-1 on the road. Expect only cameo appearances from QB Matt Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson and the rest of the first-string offense.

Buffalo can ill-afford another injury under center with both E.J. Manuel and Kevin Kolb already sidelined. Jeff Tuel is expected to start in Week 1 and will see about a quarter of action on Thursday night. From there, we could see newcomers Matt Leinart and Thaddeus Lewis. Leinart was signed, while the team traded for Lewis in a deal with the Lions Sunday. C.J. Spiller left the team last week following a death in his family but did return Sunday. He's unlikely to play more than a series, if at all Thursday.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)

Colts DE Robert Mathis says Thursday's game is all about making final decisions on who makes the team and who goes home. "Ah, yes, the infamous Cincinnati fourth preseason game. It's make or break if you are going to make the squad or not. It means a lot. If you want to make the squad, you have to put a good showing together." Head coach Chuck Pagano likes his team's depth heading in. "We've created so much competition. We're deeper across the board at all positions, so we're going to have to let some really good football players go. They'll end up on other teams like everybody else's guys. It's going to be tough."

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis summed up his game plan for Thursday night pretty well earlier this week. "The mindset is it's a great night for our fans. It's another home game. It's a fun thing and we'll have our guys get out there and let them play a little bit, get them out, and let the other guys finish the game up that are fighting for spots. And there are guys who haven't played much who'll be on the 53-man roster that need experience." In other words, don't count on seeing much more than a brief glimpse of the projected starters on either side of the football.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+3, 40)

The quarterback competition has already been settled in Philadelphia. Michael Vick will be the starter in next week's season opener. So what can we expect from the Eagles Thursday? A lot of Nick Foles and Matt Barkley under center. Foles will get the start and likely see at least a quarter of action. Of the projected regular season starters, Kelly has indicated that only a few players in the secondary are likely to see any action at all against the Jets.

The big news out of Jets camp last weekend was the needless injury to QB Mark Sanchez in the second half of their game against the Giants. He won't play Thursday. Rex Ryan has yet to name a starter at quarterback for Thursday's game and likely won't until Thursday. There's a good chance that rookie Geno Smith will sit out as Ryan feels he's seen enough of his rookie QB in game action this month. That would leave the bulk of the action to Greg McElroy and Matt Simms, although McElroy is banged up as well.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6, 36)

The Saints will be playing on a short week after defeating the Texans in Houston Sunday. Not surprisingly, Sean Payton is expected to give his regular starters the night off, just as he has in previous Week 4 preseason contests. We have seen better production from the Saints’ backup quarterbacks this year, however, with Luke McCown and rookie Ryan Griffin taking turns carrying the load. Expect to see a lot of Griffin Thursday night.

Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the Dolphins first-string offense could see a series or two of action Thursday, but that's it. After Pat Devlin took over for Tannehill last week, we can expect veteran Matt Moore to shoulder much of the load this week. The Dolphins haven't had a great deal of preseason success under head coach Joe Philbin and are off to a 1-3 start this year.

New York Giants at New England Patriots (Pick, 38.5)

Syracuse University product Ryan Nassib will get an extended look for the Giants against the Patriots, entering in relief of Eli Manning after he sees a series or two of action. Head coach Tom Coughlin has indicated that he would like to see all four of his quarterbacks play Thursday. The Giants have dropped back-to-back games after opening the preseason with a win in Pittsburgh.

Patriots QB Tom Brady says he expects to play in Thursday's preseason finale against the Giants. Brady believes he needs additional work with his new receivers in advance of next week's season opener in Buffalo. “I think there’s always something to be gained from the competition. I think you have to go out there and always be prepared, and whatever Belichick wants to do for however long he wants to play us, that’s what we’re going to do. So we’re ready to go.”

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2, 37.5)

With RGIII and Kirk Cousins both sidelined and veteran Rex Grossman not needing any more game reps prior to the regular season, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has indicated that Pat White will start and play the entire game Thursday. Most of the Redskins starters are expected to sit out Thursday's contest.

Bucs head coach Greg Schiano has indicated that backup QB Mike Glennon will see the majority of the snaps Thursday night. "The plan is, Mike’s going to play a lot. Is he the starter? Proabably. We want Mike to keep getting repetitions. Dan is a multi-year vet who has had a lot of repitions. They’ll both play.'' The Dan he referred to was veteran QB Dan Orlovsky.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 36.5)

The Steelers backup QB competition is over, with Bruce Gradkowski winning the job. He and Landry Jones will split duty in Carolina with Ben Roethlisberger remaining on the sidelines. Pittsburgh has yet to win a game this preseason but Mike Tomlin isn't putting much emphasis on picking up a win Thursday.

Just like last year, the Panthers are likely to sit Cam Newton with Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen each playing a half. Former Giants WR Domenik Hixon is expected to make his Panthers debut. LB Jon Beason says he would like to play, but could be held out in preparation for next week's season opener.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 40)

Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has indicated that RB Maurice Jones-Drew will be held out of Thursday's game after seeing limited action against the Jets and Eagles. Starting QB Blaine Gabbert is unlikely to see much more than a series or two before giving way to veteran backup Chad Henne.

Falcons head coach Mike Smith doesn't put much stock in wins and losses in the preseason and it's shown in the Falcons play so far this month, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. With WR Roddy White already hurt, Smith won't take any chances in Thursday night's meaningless preseason finale. Don't count on even catching a glimpse of Matt Ryan or Julio Jones on the field.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (+2, 39)

Bears head coach Marc Trestman is keeping it simple on Thursday night. “I wouldn’t say all, but it’ll be close to all of the starters that sit. There’s always going to be things that happen later in the week because of injuries and things like that that we may have to play some guys but our hope is most if not all will be held out of the game.”

Browns rookie head coach Rob Chudzinksi is taking a different approach. He's leaning toward playing his starters for up to a quarter. "We’re going to approach this next game that those guys are going to play, and then I’ll make that determination later in the week as it goes on.” Cleveland had impressed in its first two preseason tilts before falling flat in Indianapolis last week.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (+4.5, 39)

Titans WR Kenny Britt will not play Thursday night after sitting out back-to-back practices due to knee soreness. No fewer than three Titans linebackers are hurt, including Akeem Ayers and Zach Brown, and none of them will suit up Thursday. As for the offensive starters, they could see a series or two but that's it.

Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier has always treated his team with kid gloves in the preseason, and that won't change this week as they take the field on a short week following Sunday's loss in San Francisco. In other words, don't expect to see much from QB Christian Ponder and the rest of the starting offense.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 36.5)

Aaron Rodgers barely broke a sweat during the preseason and while Mike McCarthy has yet to rule him out for Thursday night, there's a good chance he'll be left holding his helmet on the sidelines. Graham Harrell will get the bulk of the snaps regardless whether Rodgers sees the field against the Chiefs. The Packers have been banged up throughout the preseason and should take a cautious approach here.

Andy Reid was mum as to his team's playing rotation Thursday night. “I’ve sat the ones, I’ve played the ones for a series, I’ve played them for a quarter, I’ve done it all. The main thing you want to do is to make sure with the guys who are remaining on this team you get a good evaluation on the players.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 37.5)

With starting QB Matt Schaub and the majority of the offensive starters sitting, the Texans will split the snaps between T.J. Yates and Case Keenum in Dallas. Rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins could return to the field after missing last week's game due to a head injury suffered on August 17th against Miami.

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett hasn't revealed his gameplan for Thursday night, but chances are he'll sit his regular starters, just as he did against Miami last year. Keep in mind, Dallas still won its 2012 preseason finale by a 30-13 score. After a strong showing against the Bengals last Saturday, there's little reason for the Cowboys to push the envelope here.

Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams (-7, 38.5)

There's a reason why the Rams are the biggest favorite on the board this week. Baltimore will rest the majority of its starters, including QB Joe Flacco and WR Torrey Smith, head coach John Harbaugh revealed earlier this week. The Ravens will open the regular season in Denver exactly one week from Thursday.

Jeff Fisher takes an old school approach when it comes to playing to win in the preseason. “The philosophy has been to build reps throughout camp. That has been the way we’ve done it in the past. We may adjust that ever so slightly this week.” In other words, Rams starters will see some playing time Thursday night. Exactly how much remains to be seen.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (Pick, 38)

The Cardinals will play their starters Thursday night, but not for more than a quarter. QB Carson Palmer may not be among those suiting up, however. RB Ryan Williams is expected to get extended work out of the backfield.

After seeing extended action in last week's dress rehearsal against St. Louis, don't expect to see much of Peyton Manning or the rest of the Broncos’ first-team offense. Head coach John Fox has yet to outline his gameplan but based on past history, is likely to treat this game as little more than a walk-through.

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (Pick, 38.5)

John Harbaugh has limited QB Colin Kaepernick's workload all preseason and that isn't going to change in Week 4. The 49ers have a wealth of options at quarterback, with four different possible backups seeing time against Minnesota last Sunday night. Count on another mixed bag from San Francisco Thursday.

With a number of key injuries on both sides of the football, the Chargers will take a cautious approach to Thursday's game. Philip Rivers won't play more than a series or two, with veteran backup Charlie Whitehurst likely getting the majority of the snaps. After getting embarrassed in their preseason opener, the Chargers second and third-string defense has held up well over the last two games.

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 36.5)

QB Terrelle Pryor will start for the Raiders in Seattle Thursday. Matt Flynn will sit out as he continues to recover from a minor arm injury, possibly watching his starting job slip away for the second straight year. Pryor saw the bulk of the action in last year's preseason finale in Seattle as well.

Unlike last year, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will only get a cameo appearance against the Raiders. While Seattle always gets fired up in front of its home faithful, it certainly has little to prove this week after winning its first three preseason contests. Pete Carroll has indicated that his young players will not surprisingly get extended work in this game.

Sean Murphy should check rosters. Graham Harrell plays for the Jets not GB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire UNDER streaker

Now 68-20-6 (77%) after going 2-0-1 Wednesday

UNDER 7 1/2 Pittsburgh Pirates/Milwaukee Brewers game

Home plate umpire is Dan Iassogna, 12-0-2 L14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Slick Lizard Sports 2* Tulsa +4 (says get it now, expects the line to drop back down by kickoff)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Braves Atlanta -150

Tigers Detroit -1.5 +115

Milwaukee/Pittsburgh Under 7.5

Nationals Washington -220

Mon.4-1
Tue. 3-1
Wed. 3-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Gallardo is 1-0, 2.19 in his last couple starts.

-- Medlen is 2-1, 3.15 in his last three starts. Jimenez is 1-1, 2.31 in his last couple starts.

-- Scherzer is 6-0, 1.66 in his last seven starts.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 3.09 in his last two starts.
-- Lester is 2-0, 0.57 in his last two starts; he is 4-0 in nine home starts. Tillman is 0-1, 2.57 in his last four starts.
-- Seattle won five of last six Ramirez starts (4-1, 5.00). Lyles is 2-0, 3.14 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Torres is 1-1, 6.43 in three starts this year. Martin is 1-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.
-- GGonzalez is 0-3, 7.12 in his last six starts. Koehler is 0-2, 4.84 in his last four starts.
-- Cole is 1-3, 4.30 in his last five starts.

-- Colon is 0-2, 8.53 in his last three starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-1, 6.14 in three starts, last of which was June 18.
-- Deduno is 1-3, 5.96 in his last four starts. Chen is 0-2, 13./00 in his last two.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Martin 1-5; Torres 1-3
-- Koehler 6-17; Gonzalez 8-26
-- Gallardo 5-25 (1 of last 7); Cole 3-13 (1 of last 6)

-- Jimenez 6-25 (1 of last 10); Medlen 8-25 (0 of last 6)

-- Colon 6-24; Scherzer 4-26 (0 of last 11)
-- Vargas 2-17; Odorizzi 1-3
-- Chen 2-8; Deduno 6-17 (5 of last 9)
-- Tillman 6-26; Lester 8-27
-- Ramirez 4-7; Lyles 6-20 (1 of last 7)

Totals
-- Under is 12-4-1 in last seventeen Philadelphia games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Washington games.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee games went over total.

-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last eight Oakland games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Kansas City games.
-- Eight of last twelve Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Houston games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Nationals won seven of their last eight games.
-- Brewers are 8-5 in their last thirteen road games.

-- Atlanta won six of its last seven home games.

-- Oakland won four of its last five games.
-- Angels won four of their last five games, allowing 11 runs.
-- Kansas City won its last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Mets lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Pirates lost 11 of their last 18 games.

-- Indians are 2-3 in last five games, scoring twice in last two games.

-- Tigers lost five of their last six home games.
-- Rays lost three of their last four games.
-- Twins lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Orioles lost last five road games, allowing 31 runs.
-- Mariners lost their last six games, outscored 38-12. Houston lost six of its last nine games.

Umpires
-- Phil-NY-- 10 of last 14 Eddings games went over the total.
-- Mia-Wsh-- Seven of last ten Marquez games stayed under.
-- Mil-Pitt-- Under is 12-0-2 in last fourteen Iassogna games.

-- Clev-Atl-- Favorites won five of last six Nelson games.

-- A's-Det-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Meals games.
-- LA-TB-- Nine of last eleven Wegner games went over total.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Porter games.
-- Blt-Bos-- Five of last seven McClelland games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index
Week 1 Scores/Predictions

Thursday, August 29, 2013
Southeastern Conference
Ole Miss at VANDERBILT, 9:15 pm ET VANDERBILT 31.2, Ole Miss 25.6
FBS Non-Conference
Liberty at KENT STATE, 6:00 pm ET KENT STATE 37.4, Liberty 11.6
North Carolina at SOUTH CAROLINA, 6:00 pm ET SOUTH CAROLINA 39.8, North Carolina 24.3
Presbyterian at WAKE FOREST, 6:30 pm ET WAKE FOREST 44.0, Presbyterian 5.3
Illinois State at BALL STATE, 7:00 pm ET BALL STATE 38.6, Illinois State 27.4
Tulsa at BOWLING GREEN, 7:00 pm ET Tulsa 24.5, BOWLING GREEN 17.7
Indiana State at INDIANA, 7:00 pm ET INDIANA 30.3, Indiana State 22.3
Unlv at MINNESOTA, 7:00 pm ET MINNESOTA 31.9, Unlv 14.0
Akron at UCF, 7:00 pm ET UCF 48.8, Akron 9.4
Towson at CONNECTICUT, 7:30 pm ET Towson 24.8, CONNECTICUT 24.4
Western Carolina at MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 7:30 pm ET MIDDLE TENNESSEE 42.0, Western Carolina 18.5
Southern Utah at SOUTH ALABAMA, 7:30 pm ET Southern Utah 31.5, SOUTH ALABAMA 19.4
Jackson State at TULANE, 8:00 pm ET TULANE 31.9, Jackson State 27.5
Utah State at UTAH, 8:00 pm ET Utah State 33.4, UTAH 22.1
Sacramento State at SAN JOSE STATE, 10:00 pm ET SAN JOSE STATE 42.4, Sacramento State 13.5
Rutgers at FRESNO STATE, 10:30 pm ET FRESNO STATE 26.1, Rutgers 16.0
Usc at HAWAI'I, 11:00 pm ET Usc 37.5, HAWAI'I 15.2
FCS Non-Conference
UT Martin at CHATTANOOGA, 7:00 pm ET CHATTANOOGA 35.2, UT Martin 24.7
Robert Morris at EASTERN KENTUCKY, 7:00 pm ET EASTERN KENTUCKY 34.6, Robert Morris 9.3
Rhode Island at FORDHAM, 7:00 pm ET FORDHAM 36.5, Rhode Island 20.1
Northwestern State at MISSOURI STATE, 7:00 pm ET MISSOURI STATE 33.9, Northwestern State 11.4
Hampton at WESTERN ILLINOIS, 7:00 pm ET Hampton 17.7, WESTERN ILLINOIS 15.8
Jacksonville at DELAWARE, 7:30 pm ET DELAWARE 32.1, Jacksonville 12.5
Dayton at YOUNGSTOWN STATE, 7:30 pm ET YOUNGSTOWN STATE 29.3, Dayton 10.6
Incarnate Word at CENTRAL ARKANSAS, 8:00 pm ET CENTRAL ARKANSAS 40.2, Incarnate Word 5.1
Valparaiso at NORTH DAKOTA, 8:00 pm ET NORTH DAKOTA 58.6, Valparaiso 13.6
Southeast Missouri State at SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, 8:00 pm ET SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 34.1, Southeast Missouri State 27.4
Monmouth at MONTANA STATE, 9:05 pm ET MONTANA STATE 38.1, Monmouth 17.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinningAngleSports 8/29


UNLV +14 over Minnesota (NCAA) 7:00 PM EST
Tulsa +3.5 over Bowling Green (NCAA) 7:00 PM EST
Utah State +2.5 over Utah (NCAA) 8:00 PM EST
Vanderbilt +3.5 over Mississippi (NCAA) 9:15 PM EST
Fresno State -9.5 over Rutgers (NCAA) 10:30 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters
140-87 run

16-4-1 run last 21 plays

pod PHILLIES game under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1087-817 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS: Redskins -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Angels +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Seattle at Houston

The Mariners look to snap a 6-game losing streak and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Seattle is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, AUGUST 29
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martin) 14.960; NY Mets (Torres) 14.017
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under


Game 903-904: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.562; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.960
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under


Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.890; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.019
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+140); Over


Game 907-908: Oakland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.098; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.663
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under


Game 909-910: LA Angels at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.970; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.187
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Over


Game 911-912: Kansas City at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.811; Minnesota (Deduno) 13.794
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under


Game 913-914: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.001; Boston (Lester) 15.485
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over


Game 915-916: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 15.579; Houston (Lyles) 14.124
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under


Game 917-918: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.424; Atlanta (Medlen) 17.074
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Connecticut at Seattle

The Storm look to build on their 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home games. Seattle is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, AUGUST 29
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 601-602: Connecticut at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 101.318; Seattle 117.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 16; 137
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 7; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals -119 over Minnesota Twins
(System Record: 71-7, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 71-74-2

Football Crusher
Tulsa +4 over Bowling Green
(System Record: 5-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 5-4

Soccer Crusher
Alajuelense + America Mexico OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Concacaf
(System Record: 446-16, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 446-386-59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

U.S. Open betting: Duval out for another upset on Day 4
By JAYPRIMETOWN

Americans take center stage in Day 4 of the US Open. Serena Williams looks to continue her dominance in Flushing Meadows as she takes on Kazakhstan's Galina Voskoboeva.

Williams was impressive in her opening-round win, losing just one game. She should continue to have easy matches throughout the first week. Two other matches to keep an eye on during Day 4:

John Isner (-275) vs. Gael Monfils (+200): Perhaps the best match of the day on paper. Hard-hitting American John Isner takes on the magician Gael Monfils. When Monfils is on his game, he's as entertaining to watch as anybody with his fantastic athletic ability and shot making. These two players have met six times in the past with each winning three. This is a treat and a must watch for any tennis fan, especially so early in the tournament.

Victoria Duval (+200) vs. Daniela Hantuchova (-275): The 18-year-old American Victoria Duval won her first Grand Slam match beating former U.S. Open Champion Sam Stosur in the biggest upset of the tournament thus far. Hantuchova is a crafty veteran, but has only won two matches this summer. Can Duval's magic continue? An upset here is certainly possible with the crowd rallying behind the young American

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at DETROIT

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (OAKLAND) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL
79-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.2% 39.7 units )
11-7 this year. ( 61.1% -2.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 33-24 (+19.3 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.

The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA CONNECTICUT at SEATTLE

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CONNECTICUT) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
74-37 since 1997. ( 66.7% 33.3 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.3 units )

WNBA CONNECTICUT at SEATTLE

Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) off a road win by 3 points or less, tired team - playing their 4th game in 7 days
20-5 since 1997. ( 80.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA CONNECTICUT at SEATTLE

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
12-9 this year. ( 57.1% 2.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper

THURSDAY BASEBALL

100* Play Seattle -125 over Houston (TOP MLB PLAY)
Jordan Lyles has lost 22 of the last 30 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has lost 22 of the last 29 games when pitching as an underdog of +125 to +175. Jordan Lyles has lost 24 of the last 32 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has lost 5 consecutive games when pitching on a Thursday.

50* Play Tampa Bay -140 over Los Angeles Angels (BONUS MLB PLAY)

50* Play Detroit -160 over Oakland (BONUS MLB PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

300 North Carolina +13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* (NCAAF) Ole Miss -3

3* (NCAAF) South Carolina -11.5
3* (MLB) Boston Red Sox ML -157
3* (NFL) Houston Texans -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan Titan


Bowling Green

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Matt Fargo 10* Enforcer

Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* North Carolina +13.5

100* Ole Miss -3.5

100* Royals -135

50* Browns -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo goes with O’s

God bless the Pirates. Hondo went belly up with the Cards and Yanks last night but was spared a triple trouncing by the Bucs, whose triumph kept the deficit down to a mere 1,535 monbouquettes.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects to dig up a winner with Tillman at Fenway Pahk — 20 units on the Birds to dump on Lester, aka Jonny Lager.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SPORTS SYNDICATE

Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes
8 PM EST – Rice-Eccles Stadium
Current Line – Utah -2.5
Revenge is best served cold and for Utah, it has been on their minds for an entire season since the Aggies beat the Utes 27-20 in OT last season in Logan. Utah has dominated this series with a 77-29-4 mark and before last year, the Utes had won the previous 12 meetings. Both teams look to be good again and bring back a lot of experience. Former Miami and Arizona State HC Dennis Erickson has taken over as the co-OC for the Utes and should help them open up the passing game a little more. Offense isn’t a problem for the Aggies, who have amassed at least 500 yds of offense seven times last year. This is a close matchup that will be decided in the 4th quarter, but the home field advantage and the revenge factor make the home Utes the clear choice in this spot.
3 UNIT PLAY ON UTAH -2.5

Akron Zips at Central Florida Knights
7 PM – Bright House Networks Stadium
Current Line – UCF -21
Akron HC Terry Bowden got a rude awakening last year in his inaugural campaign as the head man for the Zips. They are in most people’s minds the worst Division I FBS program, with only one win against an FBS opponent in the past three years. On the other hand, UCF has steadily gained more prestige throughout insider CFB circles as they have enjoyed good success with a 9-4 mark last year. They boast one of the nation’s top QBs in Blake Bortles, who will prove to be very difficult to stop for an Akron defense near the bottom of the nation one year ago. Last year, the Knights pounded the Zips 56-14 as a 16-point favorite and we expect more of the same in the sunshine state Thursday night. Bowden has things slowly moving in the right direction, but UCF will completely dominate here to open their 2013 campaign.
3 UNIT PLAY ON UCF -21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SamsWins

CFB
Game: Utah St. @ Utah
Pick: Utah State +2.5 (-110)
5 Units
Chuckie Keeton, meet the world. There are a whole lot of quarterbacks in the Mountain West getting serious attention — Fales, Carr, Fajardo. Utah State’s Keeton is getting lost in that shuffle a little bit, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be. Last year in his first full year as a starter he completed nearly 68 percent of his passes for almost 3,400 yards with 27 touchdowns and nine picks, and he ran for eight touchdowns in his last seven games. This could be a real coming-out party for Keeton against an imperfect Utah squad, and I’m excited to see what he can do. Five offensive linemen are back. New DC Todd Orlando isn't messing much with last year's defense that gave up just 15.4 PPG (7th in FBS) and 322 YPG (14th in FBS). Three All-WAC LBs lead the way with Kyler Fackrell (87 tackles, 3 INT, 7 QBH), Jake Doughty (109 tackles) and Zach Vigil (105 tackles, 5.5 sacks). CB Nevin Lawson (10 PD) is very athletic and S Maurice Alexander (7 TFL in 2011) returns from a year-long suspension.

Utah's beefy offensive line is shaping up nicely. The defense has to rebuild its front four without DT Star Lotulelei, but will be strong in the middle with LBs Trevor Reilly (4.5 sacks, 3 FF, 69 tackles) and Brian Biechen (58 tackles, 5 PD). Safety-turned-cornerback Keith McGill leads a youthful secondary. The Utes have only one way to go and thats up but I do not think they have the talent to stay with Utah State and the points are a bonus.

Game: Unlv @ Minnesota
Pick: Unlv +14.5 (-110)
5 Units
Rebel fans here in Vegas may think this selection is VooDoo. However, I am taking a hard look at Unlv's opponent Minnesota and I have decided that my pick can play and stay within the number. I would prefer to have the hook rather than +14. If you can buy the half point then do it.

The ground game for Unlv is in great shape with RB Tim Cornett (1,232 rush yds, 7 TD) and Northwestern transfer RB Adonis Smith (462 rush yds, 4.3 YPC career) running behind a healthier offensive line. Tim Hauck, Bobby's younger brother, brings NFL experience as the new DC for the nation's 100th-ranked defense (445 YPG) that lost just one starter.

Minnesota finished 2-7, surpassing 17 points just twice in those final nine contests. QB Philip Nelson (5.7 YPA, 8 TD, 8 INT) made great strides as a freshman and now has a lock on the starting job. But none of his returning wideouts caught even 20 passes last year. That's a big reason why Minnesota will remain a run-first offense. Both teams will be running the ball alot and the clock runs shortening the game and with +14.5 this may be too much for the Gophers to cover this number.

MLB
Game: Oakland @ Detroit
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
5 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

North Carolina vs. South Carolina
Total: under 57½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET NEWSLETTER

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

THURSDAY, AUGUST 29

♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
FRESNO STATE by 21 over Rutgers (Thursday, August 29)

*SOUTH CAROLINA 31 - North Carolina 26—USC’s Steve Spurrier haslofty goals (like a BCS title) in 2013. But in this border-war (only 2nd meetingsince 1991), prefer to “take” with probation-free UNC, which is 3-1 as a DD roaddog since 2008. Tar Heels’ warp-speed attack (school-record 40.6 ppg LY) isexpertly directed by dynamic 6-3 sr. QB Bryn Renner (3,356 YP, 28TDs, 7 ints.LY), who’ll execute an expanded package. UNC's rebuilt OL (2 starters back)must cope with the Gamecocks’ dominant DL, led by sack-crazed A-A DEJadeveon Clowney. But if Heel RB duo of bruising A.J. Blue (5.3 ypc LY) &speedy Romar Morris (5.6 ypc) can be supportive, Renner finds rhythm with 6-4 soph WR Quinshad Davis (61 catches LY) & 6-4 TE Eric Ebron (40 grabs, 7TDs). The ol’ ball coach loves his 2-QB system. But with no proven playmakersin the elite class of departed RB Marcus Lattimore, UNC’s reportedly improved4-2-5 defense—anchored by 6-6, 265-pound sr. DE Kareem Martin (15.5 TFLLY) & sr. FS Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 ints. LY)—limits its big-play allowance.CABLE TV—ESPN(DNP...SR: North Carolina 34-17-4)

*MINNESOTA 27 - Unlv 19—President Obama was only a few months intohis first term (October 2009) the last time UNLV won a road game! And nowReb HC Bobby Hauck is under even more fire in Vegas after his lone supporter(AD Jim Livengood) resigned in June. But Rebs return almost all of their 2012starters, including catalysts QB Nick Sherry & RB Tim Cornett. A bit risky to layDDs with Jerrry Kill’s Minny bunch that scored 14 or fewer in 5 of QB PhilipNelson’s 7 starts LY. TV-BIG 10(12-Min. 30-UNLV 27 (OT)...M.22-18 M.46/209 U.37/159 M.17/30/1/269 U.16/35/3/116 M.1 U.0)(12-Minnesota -8' 30-27 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 1-0)

*Tulsa 26 - BOWLING GREEN 23—Respect veteran MAC rep BG, but favorTulsa side that owns high-quality offense and is 7-2 as a road dog L3Ys. GoldenHurricane QB Green threw for 2592 yds. LY, and is joined again by his top 3recs. and a pair of RBs who combined for 2044 YR. BG returns 10 members ofthe MAC’s best defense, but the Falcons have been foiled by higher-qualityattacks, yielding 27 ppg against bowl teams in ‘12. Tulsa has scored 34 ppg for3rd-year HC Bill Blankenship, going 11-3 with a bowl win LY.(10-TULSA -17 33-20...SR: Tulsa 3-0)

*UCF 45 - Akron 17—Akron might climb out of the MAC basement under2nd-year mentor Terry Bowden, who has transfer jr. QB Nick Hirschman (2starts at Colorado LY) available to run his spread if soph dual-threat Kyle Pohlfalters. But with UCF mentor George O’Leary claiming he has his mostexplosive “O” in 10 years in Orlando, Zips will be victimized (again), as theywere in 56-14 smashing in the Rubber City year ago. UCF’s dart-throwing jr. QBBlake Bortles (63%; 25 TDs, 7 ints. LY), RB Storm Johnson & classy WR corpsshould light up the yielding Akron “D” (35.7 ppg), which allowed a whopping 30TDP in 2012. The Zips No. 1 weapon, RB Jawon Chisholm (953 YR LY), will bestymied by the beefier, more physical Knight DL, bolstered by 303-pound sophDT Demetris Anderson (Western Michigan transfer).(12-Ucf 56-AKRON 14...A.19-18 U.46/206 A.27/69 A.31/54/1/256 U.14/19/1/180 U.0 A.3)(12-Ucf -24 56-14...SR: Akron 5-3)

*Utah St. 23 - UTAH 19—Hmmm. Kyle Whittingham’s answer to revive aflagging Utah “O” (ranked 105th LY) was to enlist Dennis Erickson as a new co-o.c. Which might have been a bold move years ago; in 2013, we’re not so sure.Meanwhile, MWC sources report a seamless transition at USU, where formero.c. Matt Wells was promoted to succeed Gary Andersen (to Wisconsin). Utagswere seven points from being a BCS Buster LY and return almost all key cogs,including electric QB Keeton.(12-UTAH ST. 27-Utah 20 (OT)...U.19-16 S.35/164 U.42/96 U.19/39/0/229 S.22/32/0/216 S.2 U.1)(12-USU +7 27-20 (OT)...SR: Utah 76-30-4)

*VANDERBILT 24 - Mississippi 21—“Resurrectionist” 2nd-year HC HughFreeze has Ole Miss back on the map in the SEC, and Vandy must deal with thedistraction of rape allegations (resulting in the suspension of 2nd-leading WRChris Boyd). Still, favor the confident Commodores, riding a seven-game winstreak and boasting its most talented OL & DL in decades under charismatic 3rd-year mentor James Franklin. Ole Miss’ athletic but error-prone QB Bo Wallace(22 TDs, SEC-high 17 ints. LY) must demonstrate wiser decision-making vs.the stingy Vandy “D” (18.7 ppg). With a nifty RB duo of Wesley Tate (8 TDs LY)& Brian Kimbrow (5.3 ypc) allowing sr. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels (14 of 25 in5 appearances LY; two-year starter at Wyo) to work play-action to 6-3 sr. WRJordan Matthews (94 grabs LY), the Commodores notch their 4th straight upsetvictory in series. Key kicking edge goes to ‘Dores’ Carey Spear (20 of 24 FGsLY). CABLE TV—ESPN(12-Vandy 27-MISS. 26...M.24-17 V.36/104 M.40/55 M.31/50/0/403 V.20/35/0/267 V.1 M.0)(12-Vandy +2' 27-26 11-VANDY +2' 30-7 10-Vandy +12 28-14...SR: Mississippi 47-38-2)

***FRESNO ST. 37 - Rutgers 16—Veteran FSU (15 starters back) is outto erase the bad taste of LY’s 43-10 blowout at the hands of SMU in the HawaiiBowl. Mission accomplished. In Year Two of Tim DeRuyter’s no-huddle, asBulldogs’ NFL-ready sr. QB Derek Carr (37 TDP, only 7 ints. LY; 63 career TDP)& his solid WRs (Davante Adams 102 grabs LY) prosper vs. RU’s re-structuredback 7, which lost LB Khaseem Greene & DBs Duron Harmon & Logan Ryan tothe NFL. With the Knights’ under-performing RB jr. Savon Huggins (3.4 ypc)attempting to fill the big cleats of 1,000-yd. rusher Javon Jamison (left early forNFL), QB Gary Nova (7 TDs, but 13 ints. over last 6 games)—who struggledmightily over the second half of LY—won’t relocate his groove vs. FSU’s highly-disruptive “D,” which amassed 40 sacks & 35 takeaways LY, including 22 picksby a ball-snatching secondary. Bulldogs a perfect 6-0 as home chalk LY!(DNP...SR: Fresno St. 1-0)

*Southern Cal 38 - HAWAII 10—These coaches served on Pete Carroll’sfirst staff at USC. Twelve years later, both are under fire, Lane Kiffin for theTrojans’ 1-5 stretch-run fade in 2012, and Norm Chow for both his 3-9 initialseason and for the dismissal of his offensive coordinator just before the start ofAugust practice (Chow will handle the job himself). USC led 35-0 at the H inLY’s game and will use both QBs Max Wittek & ascending Cody Kessler,seeking to jet-start WR Marqise Lee’s stat page. The Trojans’ new, aggressive5-2 hybrid defense could be a nightmare for Hawaii’s 6-5, 235 pocket-passingtransfer QB Taylor Graham (via Ohio State). Starting RBs for both teams(USC’s Redd, knee; Hawaii’s Iosefa, foot) both nursing injuries.(12-S. CAL 49-Hawaii 10...S.20-19 S.23/81 H.32/56 S.26/41/0/394 H.24/39/2/208 S.1 H.2)(12-USC -42 49-10 10-Usc -21 49-36...SR: Southern Cal 8-0)

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Marc Lawrence

New England

[DaKid]

Football season! So stoked!all

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EAGLE EYE--Randy Rose----Florida Marlins+1.5 / Bowling Green-3.5

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BookiesHunter

Added plays:

1* Under 38.5 Colts/Bengals
1* Buccaneers +2
1* Under 8 Indians/Braves
1* Under 7.5 Brewers/Pirates

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX BRIAN'S PICK

USC (147) AT HAWAII (148)
Latest Line: Hawaii +24; Total: 53

I am stunned that the Trojans aren't giving at least 30 points to one of the worst teams in the FBS. Hawaii finished with a 3-9 record last year, failing to beat an FBS school until after Thanksgiving when they prevailed over a pair of 2-11 teams in UNLV and South Alabama. I'm not sure why USC coach Lane Kiffin is playing two quarterbacks, but either QB Cody Kessler or Max Wittek is capable of hanging 50 points on this horrible Warriors defense that allowed 40+ points seven times last year including 49 in a 39-point loss to a Trojans team that wound up 7-6. USC has won each of the past five meetings with Hawaii since 1999, outscoring the Warriors 284 to 102, which is an average score of 57 to 20. With Hawaii going 4-9 ATS (31%) in the underdog role in the past two seasons, expect another USC 40-point romp on Thursday night.
STATFOX BRIAN: USC -24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX DAVE'S PICK

OLE MISS (143) AT VANDERBILT (144)
Latest Line: Vandy +3; Total: 53.5

I will lay the points here and back the small road favorite Rebels. Vandy historically is hard to wager against at home, but this team but will be playing without departed QB Jordan Rodgers, RB Zac Stacy and suspended WR Chris Boyd. That's too much offense to replace for a hard matchup in Game 1. The Ole Miss offensive line is pretty much intact from last season too. I expect a good game here but Ole Miss pulls away late for the cover.
PLAY ON: Ole Miss -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookBreakers

1:05PM Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics +177

1:10PM Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins
OVER 8 -115

1:10PM Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
New York Mets -1.5 +180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won both games on Wednesday the Dodgers -$230/Cubs and the Pirates -$160/Brewers.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the 2nd "Chalkest" game on the board the Tigers -$180/A's.

"Mr Chalk" is 5-1 +$410 for the week 88-49 +$1235 for the 2013 MLB season.

With the start of the 2013 College Football season Ben lee has his best bet for tonight.

Fresno st. -10/Rutgers for $50.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed Sports Picks

CFB
Tonight's Free Pick: UTAH STATE +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's golf pics

Luke Donald
Charley Hoffman
Jason Day
Jordan Speith
Brandt Snedker

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

Total Destroyer 3 dimes U.S.C. Over 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

Today's Selections

Thursday, August 29, 2013

(Lines are current as of 3:28 AM ET)

College Football

7 PM ET

1 Star

Tulsa @ Bowling Green

Take Tulsa +4

9:15 PM ET

2 Stars

Mississippi @ Vanderbilt

Play UNDER 53.5

10:30 PM ET

2 Stars

Rutgers @ Fresno State

Take Fresno State -10.5

MLB

1 Star

7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh

Play UNDER 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* Central Florida

10* Rams over
10* Texans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Tang
Totalsforyou

1* Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins (10:10am PST)
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML @-140

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Profitbets

EUROPA LEAGUE:
Feyenoord Ov 2.5
Fiorentina Ov 2.5
Stuggart -1
Frankfurt Ov 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9xSports

(NCAA Football) 6:00PM SOUTH CAROLINA-11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

August 29 2013

baseball...yesterday 3-0...+$3.00...now 442-397....+$14.35

Pittsburgh -160 Milwaukee

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Vegas Runner

under 54 usc

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SB Professor NCAA 3.0 picks 8/29

7 PM EST
136. Minnesota -13

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SB Professor NCAAF Original Picks 8/29

133. North Carolina +12

145. Rutgers +11

144. Vanderbilt +3

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All Sports Capper

20* North Carolina @ South Carolina UNDER 57
20* Tulsa +3.5
10* Utah St +3

20* Atlanta Braves -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bankroll full card

10* fresno st -11
5* nc/s car under 56.5
5* balt +1.5 -145
4* cleve/atl under 8
4* minny vikings +4
3* bears +1.5
3* vandy +3.5
2* bowling green -3.5

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NORTHCOAST NFLX
3 unit-Arizona under 38-
3 unit-Minnesota Vikings+4-

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Statpicks Daily

POD (2-1): NCAAF - Utah State +2.5

NCAAF: South Carolina -11, Utah State +2.5, USC -23.5

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NORTCOAST
3* UTAH U -2.5
Marque play of day TULSA+3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4 SEASONS NCAAF Power Play of the Day
OVER 54.5 USC VS HAWAII

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MajorCovers

UNC +12
Hawaii +24

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Winsportsnow

Thursday Inner Circle
Under 40 Jets
Giants+1
Chargers pick em
N. Carolina+13
Vanderbilt+3
Usc-23.5

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Ats insiders club

Tulsa +4

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sPORSWAGERS MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 29, 2013





http://www.sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngL.A. Angels @ TAMPA BAY
L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103

1:10 PM EST. Jason Vargas missed almost two months of action after undergoing surgery on a blood clot. He has made three starts since his return and was whacked in the first two back against the Yanks and Astros, not exactly the cream of the crop. Vargas was solid in his last start but that was at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field in Seattle at a time the Mariners were struggling at the plate. Vargas has made no noticeable skills gains. He's been the same mediocre pitcher four years running and he now faces a Rays’ squad that his second in the majors with a .279 team batting average against southpaws. In eight road starts, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 47.1 IP and his chances for success here are slim.
The fact that Jake Odorizzi is a -152 favorite here strongly suggests that the oddsmakers expect the Rays to score some runs because Odorizzi is surely going to give up something. Odorizzi has made four appearances this season with three of those coming as a starter. He’s allowed 22 hits and 12 runs in 18 innings. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher and that has resulted in three balls leaving the yard and plenty more coming damn close. Odorizzi has a BAA of .297, a WHIP of 1.44 and while he has upside to be sure, he’s not major-league ready yet. He is often guilty of overthrowing and elevating his heater and has been completely inefficient with gunning for Ks as opposed to pitching to contact. He was called up in May to fill-in for David Price and he’s doing the same here, as Price’s start has been pushed back a day. We’re not asking for anything crooked here. Both these offenses are more than capable of putting up some runs while both these pitchers have at least a 50% chance each of blowing up.


Our Pick
L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)





http://www.sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngCleveland @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1½ +156 over Cleveland

The Indians offense has checked out a month early. Cleveland has scored twice so far in this series and over their past 15 games they are hitting a putrid .214. Over that aforementioned 15-game stretch, Cleveland has faced a bevy of very mediocre pitchers that include, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, A.J. Griffin, Liam Hendricks, Nathan Eovaldi and Sam Deduno to name a few. Struggling to hit the ball, the Tribe will now face a pitcher in Atlanta that they have a combined nine AB’s against in their careers. Kris Medlen is shaping himself up for another strong finish. His post-All-Star break skills have been elite with eight K’s per nine innings and just 1.4 walks per 9 IP. Since the break, Medlen also has a 51% groundball rate and everything is his skill set is trending in the right direction. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Medlen has walked just five batters while striking out 24. He has an xERA of 2.96 since the break with a miniscule 25% fly-ball rate.
Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the rare starters whose skills are much better against opposite-sided batters. Check out his stats and skills vs. LH bats: 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.8/3.4 K/BB per 9 IP, 40% groundball rate. His control falls apart against righties: 4.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and seven walks per nine innings. Atlanta is loaded with right-handed batters and that spells trouble for Jimenez. Jimenez is coming off a 10 K performance against the Twins but trust us when we tell you it was not a thing of beauty. He escaped many jams that day and need 114 pitches to get through six innings. He was constantly behind in the count. Those 114 pitches he threw tied a season high. The last time Jimenez threw 114 pitches, he was whacked for eight hits five innings in his subsequent start while walking three. Cleveland has dropped three of Jimenez’s last four games by scores of 10-0 to Miami, 7-2 to the Angels and 5-1 to the Twinkies. Why should we believe this one to be any different?

Our Pick
ATLANTA -1½ +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS CFB

Today's Free Picks for Aug 29, 2013





http://www.sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_2.pngUNLV @ MINNESOTA
UNLV +14 over MINNESOTA

Bobby Hauck is 6-32 at UNLV but for those looking to fade the Rebels, we say don't let the smooth taste fool you. This is the best UNLV squad since John Robinson's 2000 edition that whipped Arkansas in the Vegas Bowl. Bowl contention and a finish in the upper half of the division standings are eminently reachable goals. In fact, you may want to play the Rebels over 4 regular season wins (+100) because frankly that is a grossly underpriced win total. The Rebels are dangerous. They return more starters than any program in the Mountain West, a total of nine such performers on both sides of the ball and they have a QB, Nick Sherry, that was well on his way to breaking some MWC records before going down with an injury. We'll back the Rebels with more enthusiasm at home this year, but two touchdowns from a ball-control Gophers team without much explosiveness is enough to induce a nibble right out of the gate.
Minnesota’s offense can’t be trusted spotting points like this. The Gophers enter the season with the second youngest and most inexperienced quarterback group in the country. Philip Nelson is the only one with starting experience and he’s no Johnny Manziel. Nelson completed a pedestrian 49% percent of his pass attempts and had just as many TD’s as he did picks. That’s not a ringing endorsement. The Gophers will once again attempt to control the clock by running right, running left and running up the middle. The Rebels might just be the most undervalued squad in the country and taking back 14 points with the far superior QB is almost always worth a bet. That applies here. Upset possibility.

Our Pick
UNLV +14 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)



http://www.sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_2.pngNorth Carolina @ SOUTH CAROLINA
North Carolina +12 over SOUTH CAROLINA

We’re always on the lookout for value and overpriced teams, especially in the early going when people have to rely on what they read. South Carolina comes in as one of the early favorites to reach a BCS Bowl. You’re going to read that Steve Spurrier is 22-1 in Week 1 over his career and how the Gamecocks ferocious defense is going to dominate games. That may be true but 12 points is a lot of points to be spotting a Tar Heels offense that is very capable of lighting it up. We also have the ranked team versus unranked angle here and that means that when you wager on a ranked team with so much hype, you are going to pay a premium to do so and that’s something that can be rarely endorsed.
The Tar Heels return QB Bryn Renner and all he did as a junior was help UNC score an average of 40 points a game. Renner is a year older, he’s as comfortable back there as any QB in the nation and he seldom backs a bad decision. In fact, Renner threw just seven picks all of last season while hitting for 28 passing TD’s. The knock on the Tar Heels was a defense that did not match the offense but they figure to be better this season with seven starters returning.
South Carolina is the more balanced team here, at least that’s what the experts say but there are concerns. The hype surrounding its defense last season was warranted and it all starts with Jadeveon Clowney, who had the best single-season in school history last year. Still, the unit lost several players this year and return just four starters from a year ago. That’s significant, as defenses thrive as a group and this group has plenty of inexperience. The Gamecocks offense is also very efficient with QB Connor Shaw. Shaw is entering his senior season and is the program's all-time leader in completion percentage at 668. However, opposing defenses had to deal with Marcus Lattimore a year ago, arguably the nation’s best back but he’s now departed and that’s a big void to fill. The Gamecocks still have plenty of talent but there is no denying that UNC has as many offensive weapons as the Gamecocks, an outstanding QB and more returning starters on defense. That’s more than enough for us to step in on the underdog here taking back a juicy 12 points. If you are on board for this one, wait until later in the day because it’s quite possible we will be getting 13 points by game time. We will update this one later on with the price we’re taking back but we are definitely on the pooch here.


Our Pick
North Carolina +12 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Thursday August 29, 2013
$54.00 NCAA Football Package
#137 Tulsa +4 7PM Eastern
#140 Central Florida -22.5 7PM Eastern
#146 Fresno St -10 1030PM Eastern

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Dr Bob
Fresno state

Bama
Buffalo
N Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Mississippi / Vanderbilt Under 53.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo CFB Thursday night Ultimate Dog

UNLV

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer NFLX Smackdown


Cleveland Browns

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Billy Coleman

4* Nfl Carolina
3* c. fla
3* Mississippi

MLB 4* Boston/Balt under

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Arthur Ralph's

Super pick College UTAH -2 1/2

Blue RIBBON play Fresno St -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

No Limit - North Carolina
Millionaire - Vanderbilt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sportshandicapperking AUG 29


TULSA

REDSOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi
3* North Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner 2000 play is over 53.5 Hawaii/USC .

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso 100 Opening Night goy 100 USC Trojans

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Prediction Machine


141
8:00 PM
UTAHST http://static.predictionmachine.com/Icons/binoculars.png
@ UTAH
3
6.8
59.7
$77






134
6:00 PM
@ SC
UNC
-11
16.6
58.9
$68






143
9:15 PM
MISS
@ VANDY
-3
8.1
57.9
$58






146
10:30 PM
RUT @ FRES
55
45.2
Under
58.6
$65

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Andrew Lange

20* Utah Over 51

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Larry ness 10* Vegas insider CFB - Utah
9* weekly wipeout CFB - UNLV over

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Michael David FB Picks:

North Carolina
Vanderbilt
Southern California

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The Winning Prescription - Marcus Langdon

all listed as standard plays.

Minnesota -13.5


Utah State +2.5


Fresno State -10.5
---

Free pick Tulsa +3.5

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Mike Neri Sports

late service 3*: Fresno St~10.5

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New England Sports Syndicate


1* Tulsa +4

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Pure Lock

detroit

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Ultra Sports

washington
baltimore

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Essler 2* ball state.

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Vegas Runner

147 Southern Cal / 148 Hawaii UNDER 54.0 (http://www.pregameaction.com/?page_id=4?AflId=82068)5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)Analysis: *** CFB 3* SET-UP TRUE STEAM ***

UNDER 54 USC/HAWAII....(3*)

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Seabass Report for Thursday;
100 OVER Seattle in baseball
50 Philadelphia in the NFL
College Football:
50 North Carolina
100 Tulsa

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Betting As A Business
MLB: Baltimore (Tillman) +136 / Boston (Lester) 7:05 ET 1.00 Units
(Play ON Baltimore)
NFLx: Kansas City -4 / Green Bay 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Kansas City)

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Demarco Fresno st bulldogs
A redd Tulsa
S Michaels Utah state

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Davis UFC knights
Delaney redd Sox
Atkins over in min unlv

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Kelso 50 lions and 15 Texas rangers.

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Wilton ole miss
Benton unc

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Brad Wilton
40 Dime
Ole Miss

Anthony Redd
100 Dime
Tulsa

Al DeMarco
15 Dimes
Fresno St

Sean Michaels
25 Dime
Utah St

Scott Delaney
40 Dime
Red Sox

Craig Davis
50 Dimes
UCF

Brett Atkins
50 Dime
UNLV/Minn Over

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Just Cover, Baby

3* S Carolina -11
2* Utah St. +3
2* Tulsa +3½
1* Minnesota -13½
1* Mississippi -3

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Jimmy Moore

4* Vanderbilt +3.5

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Joey Cassano 8/29

Utah ST +2 and Fresno -10

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Brent Crow 20 nflx goy Texans

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executive 200% vandy