9-5-13

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::clap::

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Today's NFL Picks

Baltimore at Denver

The Broncos are seeking revenge from last years playoff loss to the Ravens and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Thursday games. Denver is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/3)


Game 451-452: Baltimore at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.325; Denver 142.477
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under

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Fastest & Slowest Starters to the NFL Betting Season

Week 1 of the NFL schedule is quickly approaching and teams and coaches are fine-tuning their games, looking to peak just before the season opener.

Some NFL teams have been consistent strong starters while others have stumbled out of the gate each year. Here are the best and worst bets in the first three games of the season over the past three years:

Quickest starters

Houston Texans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)

The Texans were a profitable 3-0 SU and ATS through the first three weeks of the 2012 schedule, taking cake-walk wins over Jacksonville and Miami before holding off the Broncos in Denver in Week 3. This season, Houston plays two of its first three contests on the road – at San Diego on Monday night in Week 1(-3) and at Baltimore in Week 3 (+2.5) – bookending a home date with Tennessee in Week 2 (-7.5).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)

The Bucs started 1-2 SU last year but covered in all three of those games, prompting a profitable year for Tampa Bay bettors, who finished 10-5-1 ATS. The Buccaneers were underdogs in losses at New York and Dallas in Weeks 2 and 3 and opened the schedule with a home win over Carolina. Tampa Bay kicks off 2013 with a road trip to play the Jets (-2.5), at home to the Saints in Week 2 (+1.5) and at New England in Week 3 (+7.5).

Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS over first three games since 2010)

The Falcons are classic fast starters but have fallen on their faces at the end of the season and playoffs. Atlanta was 3-0 SU and ATS to open 2012 thanks to some short spreads, winning at Kansas City as a 1-point fave, beating Denver at home as 3-point chalk and knocking off the Bolts on the road as a field-goal dog. The Falcons’ first three weeks of 2013 feature an opener at New Orleans (+2.5), a home game vs. St. Louis (-7), and a visit to Miami in Week 3 (+1).

Slowest starters

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS over first three games since 2010)

Philadelphia’s struggles in 2012 were well documented by the media, going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS versus the likes of Cleveland, Baltimore and Arizona in the first three weeks. The Eagles only managed to come through for bettors three times all season. This time around, Philly visits Washington (+4.5) on Monday night in Week 1 then is back home to host San Diego (-2.5) and Kansas City (-3) on Thursday Night Football. With a new head coach and system in place, the Eagles could be doomed for another slow start.

Denver Broncos (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)

Even with Peyton Manning under center, the Broncos couldn’t avoid a third straight 1-2 SU and ATS start to the season in 2012. Denver needed an epic comeback versus Pittsburgh in Week 1, and lost at Atlanta and vs. Houston the following weeks. Peyton & Co. have another tough go-around to open 2013, hosting Baltimore in the Thursday night opener (-8.5), visiting the Giants for the “Manning Bowl” in Week 2 (-1) and welcoming Oakland to Mile High on Monday night in Week 3 (-13.5). That’s a lot of chalk for Broncos bettors to deal with.

New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)

New Orleans is putting 2012 in the rearview, opening the schedule in the shadow of “Bounty Gate” with a 0-3 SU and ATS blemish. The Saints didn’t have the biggest uphill climb either, losing to Washington, Carolina and Kansas City. Sean Peyton is back on the sideline and game planning for a Week 1 home showdown with Atlanta (-2.5), a trip to Tampa Bay in Week 2 (-1.5), and a home date vs. Arizona in Week 3 (-7.5). Books are expecting big things in the Big East this year.

Other notables:

Carolina Panthers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)

San Diego Chargers (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)

San Francisco 49ers (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

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Three NFL Teams Sharps are Fading this Offseason

Not one single snap has been taken in the 2013 NFL season but plenty of sharp handicappers already have their minds made up on a handful of teams.

With the release of early odds, like win totals, Games of the Year, and futures, bettors can voice their opinion well before Week 1 of the schedule. We talked to sportsbooks and pro handicappers about which NFL teams are being faded by the wiseguys this summer.

Sharps don’t like…

New England Patriots

Win total: 11 (Over +115)
Division odds: -400
Super Bowl odds: +800

It’s been a crappy offseason for the Patriots. Wes Welker jumped ship to Denver, Rob Gronkowski is still not 100 percent, and the less we say about Aaron Hernandez’s summer the better. Tom Brady lost his three favorite targets. Can Bill Belichick “Belichick” New England out of this mess?

Expert opinion: Michael Stewart, CarbonSports, “Our biggest move so far is the Pats, for all the reasons you think of. They've lost two of their best receivers in Hernandez (jail), Welker (Broncos) and with Gronk not 100 percent going into Week 1, many people are down on them. We've gone from 11.5 (Under -130) to 11 (Under -145), which is a monster move for an NFL season win total.”

Baltimore Ravens

Win total: 8.5 (Over -140)
Division odds: +200
Super Bowl odds: +3,000

Sharps are treating the Ravens Super Bowl title as lightning in a bottle – a one-time run. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are gone, leaving an aging Terrell Suggs and QB Joe Flacco to pick up the leadership slack. Baltimore did add LB Elvis Dumervil to improve the pass rush but loss eight starters from that championship roster.

Expert opinion: Bruce Marshall, “We’ll see if the subtle adjustment made by offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, allowing QB Joe Flacco more audible freedom after Cam Cameron’s December dismissal, keeps Flacco soaring as he was late last season when tossing 15 touchdowns and only one pick in the last seven games during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run.”

Indianapolis Colts

Win total: 8.5 (Over -125)
Divisional odds: +240
Super Bowl odds: +4,000

The Colts proved everyone wrong in 2012, riding rookie QB Andrew Luck and drawing inspiration from head coach Chuck Pagano’s battle with leukemia to win 11 games and make the postseason cut. Indianapolis was lucky in a lot off those close games, something sharps aren’t counting on in 2013.

Expert opinion: Marc Lawrence, “Indy ran into all sorts of good 'Luck' last season winning nine of their 11 games by a touchdown or less, including seven victories by four or less points. A nine-game improvement from a two-win team in 2011 far exceeded expectations. Expect a combination of sophomore blues by Andrew Luck and a serious bounce to leave the Colts losers in 2013."

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NFL Top 3: Teams Shallow at Skill Positions

With cut day now behind us, all 32 NFL teams have settled on their initial 53-man rosters for the coming season. And while most clubs had little trouble purging their rosters, the cuts - combined with a lack of initial depth - have left a handful of teams short at key offensive positions.

Here are three units in need of a few extra skill players:

Buffalo Bills quarterbacks

With E.J. Manuel expected to miss the opener with a left knee injury and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over due to concussion issues, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel is slated to start under center in the Bills' season opener against the New England Patriots. Manuel is considered Buffalo's QB of the future, but it might not hurt to find an experienced backup to replace Kolb.

Free-agent options: Vince Young, John Skelton, Tim Tebow

Baltimore Ravens running backs

It isn't that the Ravens will struggle in the backfield - Ray Rice is one of the most talented running backs in the league, and Bernard Pierce is a capable backup. But here's the problem: As of Sunday's 53-man roster deadline, Rice and Pierce are the only running backs on the Baltimore roster. Expect a depth addition in the coming days.

Free-agent options: Michael Turner, Lance Ball, Jonathan Dwyer

Detroit Lions receivers

When you boast the league's most explosive receiver in Calvin Johnson, it's hard to consider the position a weak spot. But with the ordinary Nate Burleson and project Ryan Broyles behind him, Detroit could stand to benefit from having another elite pass-catcher - particularly if Johnson struggles or suffers an injury.

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Does High-Scoring NFL Preseason Give Value to Week 1 Overs?

If the high-scoring preseason storm clouds are any indication, NFL teams will be raining down points during the 2013 regular season.

The NFL’s exhibition schedule has produced an unusual amount of high-scoring games in August, helping fans of the Over cash in at a near 60 percent rate (60.32%) during the preseason. That flood of “overs” has caught the eye of one NFL handicapper, who is bracing for a surplus of scoring this season.

“First impression from the preseason is that with a plethora of scoring, a new standard will likely be set on NFL totals this season,” Marc Lawrence says. “In a pass-happy league, the oddsmakers were forced to raise the bar last season. With other teams now toying with the pistol, the roof could be blown open this season.”

Scoring has steadily climbed the past few seasons, from teams averaging 21.5 points per game in 2009, 22.0 in 2010, 22.2 in 2011, and 22.8 in 2012. More NFL teams are turning to up-tempo, pass-heavy attacks, leaving only three teams that ran more than passed last year. Eleven teams threw the ball on more than 60 percent of their plays, compared to just three the previous season.

Oddsmakers are making the necessary adjustments to the 2013 totals. The average over/under on the 2012 Week 1 board was just below 44 points, with teams posting a 9-7 over/under count in the opening slate. This season, the average Week 1 total is almost 45.5 points.

“Totals have gone up quite a bit overall,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook. “This is the first season that I can remember that every game has a total of at least 40 points. Main reason behind this is that more and more teams are pass-first type offenses.”

Perry says the eye-opening Over trend in the preseason doesn’t have any impact on the regular season totals, stating that these results are coming with third and fourth-string players on the field. He also notes the common belief that Week 1 totals are usually lower compared to the rest of season, due to the fact that many offenses are still working out their timing in the opening weeks of the schedule.

“We do consider that some teams are still fine tuning their offense, so we may not have the total as high as you may think,” he says, pointing to the New York Jets’ QB troubles.

New York hosts Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a total between 39.5 and 40 points on the board – the lowest Week 1 number. The highest over/under goes to the NFC South showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans, which has garnered a total of 54 points.

According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports, there hasn’t been a significant lean toward the Over when it comes to the early Week 1 action. Of the 16 games on the board, only seven have taken more money on the Over than the Under with one game split down the middle.

The New England Patriots were the top Over bet in the NFL last year, posting an 11-5 over/under mark. The Patriots passed the ball on 57 percent of their offensive plays and ran a league-high 74.3 plays per game with their no-huddle offense. The total is set at 49 for their opening game against the Buffalo Bills, despite the Bills QB issues this summer.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 5

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BALTIMORE (14 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 4) - 9/5/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week

Trend Report

Thursday, September 5

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore

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NFL

Week 1

Ravens @ Broncos—Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.

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Steve Fezzik

WEEK 1

Steelers -6.5
Giants +3
Patriots - UNDER 52.5 (free pick)
Panthers +3.5

Steelers To WIN AFC NORTH +175

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Florida Atlantic at East Carolina

The Owls look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Florida Atlantic is the pick (+20 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by only 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+20 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/3)


Game 301-302: Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 71.149; East Carolina 81.509
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 10 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 20 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+20 1/2); Under

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Chris Justice

Over 54 east carolina

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Week 1 Line Moves
By Kevin Rogers

Some of the biggest line moves we'll see will happen in Week 1 after the initial numbers were released back in the spring. The LVH (Las Vegas Hotel and Casino) Sportsbook has made the proper adjustments heading into the season opening games as we'll take a look at why some of these games moved.

Patriots at Bills

LVH Opener: New England -7
Current Line: New England -9½

The Bills were leaning towards rookie E.J. Manuel as their opening day quarterback, but a minor knee surgery put the former Florida State standout on the shelf. Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the preseason, opening the door for ex-Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel to get the starting nod in Week 1.

Buccaneers at Jets

LVH Opener: Pick-em
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3½

It's rare to see the Bucs listed in the road favorite role, but the quarterback issues in New York caused the line move. Mark Sanchez will sit out the opener after injuring his shoulder in the third preseason game, as rookie Geno Smith is set to make his debut in Week 1. Also, former Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis will face his old team as a member of the Bucs following a torn ACL suffered last season.

Chiefs at Jaguars

LVH Opener: Kansas City -2½
Current Line: Kansas City -3½

The Jaguars look to be one of the bigger disasters in the NFL this season with their substandard quarterback play. Blaine Gabbert missed the final two games of the preseason, but the Jacksonville quarterback is hoping to play on Sunday.

Vikings at Lions

LVH Opener: Detroit -3
Current Line: Detroit -5

The money is starting to pour in on the Lions, who finished last season at a disappointing 4-12. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, but the Vikings stumbled to a 1-3 mark in the preseason.

Raiders at Colts

LVH Opener: Indianapolis -7
Current Line: Indianapolis -9½

Oakland is unsure about its starting quarterback heading into Sunday's matchup, but early indication is Terrelle Pryor will start ahead of Matt Flynn. Also, plenty of public money is headed the Colts way following their return to the playoffs last season.

Cardinals at Rams

LVH Opener: St. Louis -6
Current Line: St. Louis -5

St. Louis had its struggles in the preseason, as the improved NFC West will look for a boost from the Rams and Cardinals at the bottom of the division. Arizona won three of four exhibition games, while seeking revenge after getting swept by St. Louis in 2012.

Eagles at Redskins

LVH Opener: Washington -5½
Current Line: Washington -3½

The Redskins will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback just nine months after tearing his ACL in the playoff defeat to the Seahawks. The Eagles will stick with Michael Vick under center as Philadelphia hopes to use the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly to try and stun the Redskins.

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Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)

The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.

Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.

2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.

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Jimmy Boyd

3* (NFL) Baltimore Ravens+8

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NFL Prop Shop: Thursday Night Football's best prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

The NFL Prop Shop opens its doors for another season of alternative wagers, starting with a look at the best prop plays for Thursday’s opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos.

Total gross passing yards: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (248.5 yards)

Most are expecting a significant dropoff in production from the Ravens offense this season. I'm not so sure.

Even with the departure of Anquan Boldin and the season-ending injury to Dennis Pitta, this is still a team that can thrive in the passing game with Joe Flacco even more comfortable in his second season running Jim Caldwell's offense.

With Elvis Dumervil suiting up in purple and Von Miller suspended, Flacco should have a little extra time to operate Thursday night. I expect him to throw early and often on the uneven Broncos secondary.

Take: Over 248.5 yards (-110)

Total receiving yards: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (65.5 yards)

Much of the attention is being focused on two Broncos' receivers, Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas. I think it's important that the Ravens don't forget about Eric Decker, who could settle into a very productive role in the Denver offense this season.

Decker developed a nice chemistry with Peyton Manning last season and while he does take a step back in the depth chart, I still feel that the Broncos will find a way to get him the football. The Ravens defensive strength certainly doesn't lie in their secondary and I like the fact that we don't need a monster game from Decker to cash this ticket.

Take: Over 65.5 yards (-110)

Total QB sacks: Both teams (4.0)

While the Broncos gained in some areas in the offseason, they lost big time in terms of their pass rush, with Elvis Dumervil defecting to Baltimore and Von Miller suspended for a good chunk of the season. The Ravens haven't always been able to keep Flacco upright, but I expect their offensive line to hold its own in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Broncos know all about Elvis Dumervil's exploits and will certainly gameplan accordingly. They can ill afford to have Manning getting rattled this early in the season. A healthy dose of their ground game, along with plenty of quick hitters, should help protect Denver's prize possession.

Take: Under 4.0 (+105)

Total points: Baltimore Ravens (20.5)

The Ravens offense isn't getting nearly enough respect heading into this matchup. While the Broncos possess a formidable defense, it's not an elite unit in my opinion. We saw some hiccups from Flacco in the preseason, but I'm confident he can orchestrate the three touchdown drives that are required to cash this ticket.

We saw Baltimore reach another level in terms of offensive efficiency after ousting Cam Cameron from the offensive coordinator role last year. With a full offeseason to implement and absorb Jim Caldwell's offense, I look for Flacco & Co. to perform well early in 2013, starting on opening night in Denver.

Take: Over 20.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

With the NFL season opener stealing the spotlight, Thursday's two college football contests are in the dark. That could mean added value with football bettors looking elsewhere for action. Here's a quick look at this pair of games:

FAU Owls at East Carolina Pirates (-20.5, 54)

The Owls expect to have freshman QB Greg Hankerson back under center after he left FAU’s 34-6 loss to Miami with a rib injury. Hankerson fell on the football while being tackled, leaving passing duties to sophomore Jaquez Johnson. Johnson, who started the game and split time with Hankerson, was 11 for 20 for 83 yards passing and added 30 yards rushing. Owls offensive coordinator Brian Wright will alternate between the two Thursday.

East Carolina won’t be rolling out the welcome mat for FAU in its first C-USA game. The Pirates put up 52 points in a warm-up win over Old Dominion in Week 1 (52-38) but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites. Quarterback Shane Carden set a school record with 447 yards passing (ECU had 481 total yards of offense) in that win, finding WR Justin Hardy for 191 of those gains and WR Davon Grayson for three touchdowns on four catches.

Key betting stat: Over is 6-1 in Pirates’ last seven games overall.

Sacramento State at Arizona State Sun Devils (-37)

Arizona State and Sacramento State will be looking for their first points of the season Thursday night, but only the host Sun Devils will be playing their opener. The FCS' Hornets are coming off a 24-0 loss at San Jose State, and the opposition doesn't get any easier with Arizona State. The Sun Devils are looking to build upon an 8-5 record in coach Todd Graham's inaugural season in the desert, and with 17 returning starters Arizona State plans to contend with nationally-ranked USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 South Division.

Of those returning starters, quarterback Taylor Kelly and defensive tackle Will Sutton stand out. Kelly had a breakout campaign as a sophomore last season, passing for 3,039 yards and 29 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Sutton is the reigning Pac-12 defensive player of the year after recording 63 tackles and 13 sacks in a dominant junior year.

Key betting stat: Over is 7-1 in Sun Devils' last eight Thursday games.

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Tale of the tape

The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos kickoff the 2013 NFL schedule Thursday night. We break down each side and let you know which team has the edge with our Tale of Tape for Thursday Night Football.

Offense

Peyton Manning is the biggest offensive weapon on the field Thursday and has added a new WR to his arsenal in former Patriots slotman Wes Welker. He joins downfield threats Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on an offense that averaged 30.4 points per game.

Denver’s rushing attack is a bit of an unknown heading into Week 1. The Broncos selected Wisconsin TD machine Montee Ball in the draft. He’ll share duties with RB Ronnie Hillman. Without a proven ground game, Baltimore could tee off on Manning with the pass rush.

Baltimore is hoping its heavy investment in QB Joe Flacco pays off. During their improbable run to the Super Bowl, Flacco was at the wheel of an explosive attack that averaged 31 points on 275.5 passing yards a game. Anquan Bolden is no longer in the mix and TE Dennis Pitta is out for the year, but WR Torrey Smith always seems to play well in primetime.

Ray Rice remains the backbone of the Baltimore ground game. The shifty RB rushed for 1,143 yards and is just as dangerous catching the ball. He was a beast versus Denver in the AFC Divisional Round, running up 131 yards and a touchdown.

Edge: Denver

Defense

Linebacker Elvis Dumervil traded hats this offseason, signing with Baltimore after a fax fiasco in Denver. That pickup shifts the defensive edge in this Week 1 matchup drastically, even more so now that Broncos LB Von Miller is suspended for six games.

The Ravens still have a nasty front seven, anchored by LB Terrell Suggs, who was a one-man wrecking crew with two sacks, a forced fumble and 10 tackles versus Denver in the playoffs. Baltimore’s secondary took a step back this offseason due to the loss of veteran S Ed Reed. Even with him, the Ravens surrendered some big numbers during last year’s postseason but were able to outscore their opponents.

The Broncos’ daunting pass rush has been subdued. Denver doesn’t have Dumervil or Miller pressuring the passer, which should allow Flacco plenty of time to pick apart a secondary that has seen better days. Champ Bailey is still an elite CB and gets some help from the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, however, those two haven’t been at 100 percent all summer.

Edge: Baltimore

Special teams

Nothing gives those long field goals extra pop like the thin Mile-High air. Denver kicker Matt Prater is a threat for three points as soon as the ball crosses the 50-yard line. Broncos kick return specialist Trindon Holliday went for scores on punt and kickoff returns last season but has plagued his squad with costly fumbles. On the other side of the kickoff, Denver budged for a respectable average of 22.1 yards on kickoffs and just 6.2 on punts – lowest in the AFC.

The word is out on speedster Jacoby Jones, who highlighted Super Bowl XLVII with a 108-yard kickoff-return TD. Baltimore ranked tops in the NFL with an average of 27.3 yards per kickoff and added 9.4 yards per punt return. We'll see what the new kickoff rule does to those stats this season. The Ravens were sound on return coverage, giving up 23.2 yards per kickoff and 7.8 yards per punt in 2012.

Kicker Justin Tucker was surefooted in the Super Bowl, making two key FGs in the fourth quarter. He finished sixth in FG conversions, with his three misses coming from between 40-49 yards away. There won’t be any jitters in his boots for the season opener.

Edge: Baltimore

Notable quotable

"The no-huddle offense is a great tool, a great strategy. You obviously have to be in great shape as a football team and your opponent has to be in great shape to keep up with you. But you have to execute quicker, you have to think quicker. You have to be able to operate in that kind of environment, but you force your opponent to do the same. It fits our philosophy." – Ravens head coach John Harbaugh on defending Broncos’ no-huddle in thin Denver air.

“When we're on the field on offense -- I love our fans' excitement -- but if we can just find that controlled noise level. I believe we are going to go for it on some fourth downs this year and maybe not cheering when we're going for it on fourth down – wait and see and if we get it, cheer then. To me, it's a hard thing. These fans have so much enthusiasm, but for a receivers' standpoint, you'd love to have that homefield advantage where you wouldn't have to signal at home.” – Peyton Manning on crowd noise distracting the offense at Sports Authority Field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the stats: NFL preseason wins matter in Week 1
By MARC LAWRENCE

Week 1 of the NFL kicks off the 2013 season, along with Week 2 on the College Football gridiron. Before we head to the window, let’s roundup a few last-minute edges.

Upside down, inside out

Good football teams win games both on the scoreboard and in the stats. Bad football teams lose games both on the scoreboard and in the stats.

Phony football teams somehow manage to wins games on the scoreboard while losing in the stats.

By our scorecard, here are last week’s FBS-lined “inside-out” stat winners and losers…

Won the game, lost the stats: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas State, Utah and Virginia.

Lost the game, won the stats: BYU, California, Georgia, Georgia State, Rice, Rutgers, SMU, Southern Mississippi, UNLV, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington Sate and Wyoming.

Note: BYU and Southern Miss were triple-digit yardage winners while Texas State and Virginia were triple-digit yardage losers.

Bowler blues

Bowl teams last year who opened the season with a loss this year often come flat in game No. 2, covering the spread less than 50 percent of the time (117-126-2 ATS) since 1990.

Worse, they sing the blues when facing a conference foe in Game 2, posting as dismal 12-24 ATS in these games.

Making conference calls this week are Georgia and Utah State.

Coach me up

Willie Taggart had a horrific debut with South Florida last week, losing 53-21 to McNeese State at home.

He’ll be put to the test this week when his Bulls travel north to meet Michigan State, knowing he is 15-2-1 ATS as a road dog, including 11-0 the last eleven.

NFL newbies

No less than seven NFL head coaches make their debut with new teams this week.

From our database, the largest discernable edge is found by fading favorites debuting a new coach in Week, as they are just 12-18 ATS in these games since 2000.

Dress those debuts up in competitive games, as a favorite of less than four points, and they fold like a cheap lawn chair going 5-10 SU and 3-12 ATS.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman, Cleveland’s Rob Chudzinski and Kansas City’s Andy Reid find themselves in wobbly seats Sunday.

Preseason wipeouts

Sweeping the board, or getting swept, during the preseason is not a good omen for NFL teams playing their first game of the campaign.

That’s concerned by the fact 0-4 preseason teams are 22-32-2 ATS, including 11-20-1 ATS as favorites since 1983.

Atlanta and Pittsburgh are on opening week alert.

On the other side, teams who went 4-0 in the preseason are just 23-28-1 ATS in regular season openers, including 10-19-1 ATS for those residing in the NFC conference.

Seattle and Washington will try their best to avoid an opening wipeout this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The underdog in the Notre Dame-Michigan series is 21-4 ATS the last 25 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ravens or Broncos? NFL bloggers debate who will cover

The 2013 NFL season opens in grand style when the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens come to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos, who are set as 7.5-point home favorites Thursday.

In order to get the best in-depth look at the season opener, we’ve enlisted the help of each team’s expert bloggers. Justin Silberman from Ravens blog “The Purple Chaos” and Kim Constantinesco from Broncos blog “Predominantly Orange” put on the helmets and butt heads over which team will not only win but cover on Thursday Night Football.

WHY BALTIMORE WILL COVER

Justin Silberman writes for “The Purple Chaos”. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @ThePurpleChaos.

No ordinary Joe

Joe Flacco silenced his critics during last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff round matchup against the Broncos. This time around, he won’t have to worry about the talented pass-rushing tandem of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil wreaking havoc in the backfield, which should mean a more comfortable pocket for Flacco. Instead, the Ravens offensive line will be tasked with blocking Shaun Phillips and Robert Ayers, a matchup that favors the defending Super Bowl champions.

Elvis’ homecoming

Speaking of Dumervil, he will be on the Ravens’ sideline after signing with the team in March. With Dumervil playing on the opposite side of a healthy Terrell Suggs - who had 10 tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble vs. Denver in Janaury - coupled with Denver’s makeshift offensive line, quarterback Peyton Manning will be hard-pressed to establish any offensive consistency.

Strong starts

The Ravens are 5-0 under head coach John Harbaugh in season openers, but they will be playing in Thursday night’s annual kickoff game for the first time during the Harbaugh era. In Thursday night contests under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 2-1. To beat one of the best teams in the AFC, the Ravens have to win the mind game of playing on a short week, something Harbaugh’s track record has proven his teams have been able to do.

WHY DENVER WILL COVER

Kim Constantinesco is the senior editor for PredominantlyOrange.com. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @PredomOrange.

Mile High Air

The Mile High advantage plays a bigger role at the beginning of the season when conditioning for certain players is still an issue. At 5,280 feet above sea level, Peyton Manning is running his offense much faster than last year. A couple of no-hudde series that moves the ball down the field will gas the Ravens defense and the effects will really be felt in the fourth quarter. The three giant receiving threats in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker gives the Ravens too much to look after, particularly when they're tired

Heartbreak still hurts

People get over breakups in less than eight months, but the Broncos have not gotten over the crushing playoff defeat in January. How it happened and the fact that the Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl gives the Broncos enough fuel to light up that giant Joe Flacco banner hanging on Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Anger and revenge are enough to potentially turn this one into a blowout.

The thrill is gone

The Ravens lost keys guys in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, and Anquan Boldin in the offseason. While the front office worked hard to find solid replacements, the Ravens just don't have the chemistry yet, particularly on defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos kept their main guys in place (other than Elvis Dumervil) and have a full year of experience under their belt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's MLB games:

American League

Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (-163, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie is coming off back-to-back impressive starts, allowing just two runs while striking out nine over 12 innings against Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Hot batting stat: Kansas City INF Emilio Bonifacio is 6-for-16 with a pair of doubles in his career against Mariners lefty Joe Saunders.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Royals are 24-8 in their last 32 games as a favorite.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-110, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees righty Ivan Nova is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA and just two home runs allowed in eight starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: New York OF Ichiro Suzuki is batting just .213 with zero extra-base hits in 47 at-bats against the Red Sox in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1 in Nova's last five starts against Boston.

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-160, 9)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana had one of the best outings of his career in his last encounter with Baltimore, striking out 11 while limiting Baltimore to just two hits over seven shutout innings.

Cold batting stat: Entering Thursday's action, Baltimore 3B Manny Machado had just seven doubles in 171 second-half at-bats after hitting 39 prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Baltimore has won 12 of righty Miguel Gonzalez's last 14 home starts.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-248, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Astros right-hander Brad Peacock is 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA and six home runs allowed over 33 2/3 innings away from Houston this season.

Hot batting stat: Houston 2B Jose Altuve has nine hits over his last four games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Astros have won just four of the last 21 meetings between the teams.

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (+150, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander David Price is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA in nine second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: Angels 3B Mark Trumbo is 5-for-12 with a home run in his career against Price.

Weather: Skies will be clear with temperatures in the high-70s. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels have won 10 of their last 11 Thursday games.

National League

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (-141, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani has surrendered more than three runs just once in 24 career major-league appearances.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati SS Zack Cosart is 5-for-14 with a pair of home runs in his career against Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: St. Louis is 12-4 in starter Lance Lynn's last 16 outings against teams with winning records.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-113, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Trevor Cahill is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in 10 road starts and one relief appearance.

Cold batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt is batting just .176 with 13 strikeouts in 51 at-bats against the Giants this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in the Giants' last nine home games.

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 7:42 p.m. ET. Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

Baltimore +8 60.1%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Line Moves ( Saturday )

Tulsa -10
Texas -7
Tulane -6
Navy +13
San Jose State +26.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Broncos seek payback vs. Ravens Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -9.5, Total: 48

The 2013 NFL season gets underway Thursday night with the defending champion Ravens visiting a Broncos team favored to win this year’s championship.

These teams played a classic in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw a game-tying, 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds left in regulation before eventually winning 38-35 in double overtime to advance to the AFC Championship game. Flacco is back to lead his team that parted ways with several starters, including retired LB Ray Lewis, but the Ravens signed DE Elvis Dumervil away from Denver. The Broncos inked former Patriots star WR Wes Welker to give QB Peyton Manning another weapon, but pass-rushing monster LB Von Miller is suspended for this game, while starting CBs Champ Bailey (foot) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle) are both questionable. Denver was a whopping 10-2 ATS (83%) as a favorite last season and 6-2 ATS (75%) at home. But the Ravens are also 17-11 ATS (61%) on the road in the past three seasons and 7-4 ATS (64%) in the underdog role in the past two years. Also, head coach John Harbaugh has also been a strong bet since arriving in Baltimore, sporting a 51-38 ATS mark (57%), including 39-25 ATS (61%) in games played on grass.

The Super Bowl champions have steadily moved away from the running game as they’ve gone more no-huddle the past two seasons. This is an Air Coryell offense that attacks downfield with QB Joe Flacco looking for speedy WRs Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. These two wideouts combined for 175 receiving yards and 3 TD in the miracle win at Denver on Jan. 12. Because TE Dennis Pitta (hip) will miss the 2013 season, Flacco is left with TEs Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark for the short stuff. RB Ray Rice continues to be used as a security blanket and screen option to create mismatches, but in last year's playoff meeting with the Broncos, he carried the ball 30 times for 131 yards (4.4 YPC) and a touchdown. Baltimore ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year with 24.9 PPG. On defense, LBs Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe, and DBs Ed Reed, Bernard Pollard and Cary Williams are all gone from the 17th-ranked total defense (351 YPG allowed) and the tied for 12th-ranked scoring defense (21.5 PPG allowed). However, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs and a healthy CB Lardarius Webb are still Pro Bowl defenders. Replacing Lewis and Ellerbe will be ILBs Daryl Smith and Josh Bynes, who has outplayed rookie Arthur Brown in training camp. Newcomers DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, DL Chris Canty and DB Michael Huff will all help fill these gaping holes.

This is basically QB Peyton Manning’s offense, featuring a lot of pre-snap adjustments and more quick hitters. Manning threw for 290 yards and 3 TD in the playoff loss to Baltimore last year, but threw two picks, the last of which set up the game-winning field goal in double overtime. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will work on the outside as receiver 1 and 1A. They’ll go to a three-receiver base with WR Wes Welker coming in, and the former Patriots star will likely take over as Manning’s No. 1 target. The potent passing attack was a big reason the Broncos scored 30.1 PPG (2nd in NFL) with 398 total YPG (4th in NFL) last year. Rookie RB Montee Ball should get a few more carries than either RBs Ronnie Hillman or Knowshon Moreno. On defense, the Broncos tied the NFL lead with 52 sacks in their first year under defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in 2012, but departed with DE Elvis Dumervil (11 sacks), and OLB Von Miller (18.5 sacks) is suspended four games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy plus another two games for further violation during the appeal. This will be a huge void for the Broncos early this season. Denver's defense allowed a league-low 4.58 yards per play last season and finished second in total defense (291 YPG)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL
*DENVER 29 - Baltimore 26—The waiting in Denver to avenge that painful
Jan. 12 double-OT playoff loss has been excruciating, especially for for S
Rahim Moore after he misplayed Jacoby Jones’ game-tying 70-yard TD catch,
and for practically (but not completely)-perfect Peyton Manning after throwing
an int. in OT. The Broncos can get their payback, but it won’t come easy,
especially with LY’s voracious pass rush without Elvis Dumervil (now a Raven!)
and LB Von Miller (suspended). Baltimore compensated in free agency for its
many departures. And sources say Joe Flacco’s ascent in the playoffs (11 TDs,
0 ints.) had a lot to do with new o.c. Jim Caldwell allowing audible freedom at
line of scrimmage. TV—NBC

CFB
*EAST CAROLINA 41 - Florida Atlantic 27—The ECU offense got off to a
good start, with jr. QB Shane Carden (one time at Texas Tech) hurling for 447
yards and 5 TDs vs. Old Dominion. Still, the Pirates led only 35-31 early in the
fourth. And FAU’s Carl Pelini stretched his road dog mark to 7-1, as his defense
hung tough at Miami and his two new QBs (juco Jaquez Johnson & true frosh
Greg Hankerson) both got their feet wet in a big way vs. the loaded Hurricanes.
(FIRST MEETING)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

NFL
*DENVER over BALTIMORE by 12
The Baltimore defense has a lot to prove. In the Super Bowl, it let a young quarterback who takes a long time between snaps while he stares down the offensive
play-caller on the sidelines nevertheless lead a big comeback against it. That unit
now has a lot of new players on it, and is being asked to jell very quickly against
a very good, veteran quarterback who has seen it all before and doesn’t need to
stare down an offensive coordinator between plays like a deer in the headlights.
In this particular match-up, the Ravens could have a tough time getting lined up
without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed steering them. Peyton Manning gets his team to
the line of scrimmage zip-zip-zip and he knows what he wants to do when he gets
there. He has added what figures to be a good possession tool (WR Wes Welker) to
help extend drives and keep Joe Flacco & Co. off the field, and force the Baltimore
offense to drive a long way on most of its series. The Broncos are playing without
their terrifying rush ends of the recent past. Von Miller (suspended for six games)
and Elvis Dumervil (now on the Ravens). But good coaches with time to prepare
can work around such nuisances. Like overloading the secondary instead, limiting
the big play instead of trying to force one of your own (which basically blew the
playoff loss to the Ravens last season).
DENVER, 29-17.

CFB
*EAST CAROLINA over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 18
East Carolina returned eight starters on each side of the ball, 76% of their rushing
yards, 88% of their passing yards, and guess what? They gained 120% of their
total yards per game from last season in their opener against level-rising Old
Dominion. On defense, ECU welcomed back 78% of its tackles (766 of 977) and
81.8% of its turnover production (18 of 22), and guess what? They gave up 100%
of last season’s yards per game to Old Dominion (460 on the nose), and 130%
of last season’s scoring yield per game (38, vs. 31 a year ago). So, ha-ha, this
coaching staff may never get their kids to play real defense. FAU was up against it
against the Hurricanes of Miami last Friday night but can make a little more noise
in this one.
EAST CAROLINA, 38-20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASE
BALTIMORE over Denver RATING: 4

DENVER 27 - Baltimore 23 - (8:30 - NBC) -- Revenge rears its head, as Broncs
were stung by 2 unbelievable TD tosses in playoff OT loss to the eventual Super
Bowl champs. Lewis, Bolden, & Reed are gone from Raven roster, but youth just
may prove an improvement. Manning's 105.8 QB rating & 37 were 2nd best in
his brilliant career. But Broncs without Dumervil, & Miller, who accounted for
27½ sacks LY. Bailey (foot) still questionable, & Welker not 100½. Thus, Flacco
(perfect in the playoffs), Rice & Co should stay in this one all the way. Take the 8.

CFB
EAST CAROLINA 45 - Florida Atlantic 24 - (7:30 - FSN) -- Sure, Pirates have
VaTech up next, but shouldn't be deterred from posting another large number (46
ppg last 8 outings, but allowing 34). Ceded 26 FDs to OldDominion, but note QB
Carden a smooth 46-of-54 (447 yds, 5 TDs). Owls just a 20-18 FD deficit at
Miami, but allowed 53 & 63 yd TD runs. But can't run & nor contain it. Pirate call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP

NFL
Baltimore vs DENVER - Thursday The Defending Super Bowl champs actually open up on the road due to a scheduling conflict. The Ravens came into Denver LY and knocked the Broncos out of the playoffs so they will be confident. DEN, of course, is out for revenge and did deliver our NFL Game of the Year in this matchup in the regular season winning 34-17 at BAL (-3, cover by 2 td).
Since 1993 the Super Bowl Champ has only been a dog 3 times all as +2’ pt dogs (Dal ‘93, NE ‘02 & TB ‘03).

CFB
Florida Atlantic at EAST CAROLINA - First meeting as this is FAU’s inaugural CUSA game. East Carolina has gone 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home the L2Y vs CUSA opp including 4-0 LY (3-1 ATS) winning by 18 ppg. EC is one of the most exp’d tms in the country w/18 st’rs back from LY’s 8-5 tm and are in the midst of a 3 gm home stand. FAU is in the middle of a 3 gm road trip but were 4-0 ATS LY in B2B road gms incl a 2-0 mark in gms #2-3 LY during a 3-gm road trip. FAU cashed for us LW as a 2H Selection as an AD vs Miami. Will we go to them again or will the Pirates give them a rude CUSA awakening and continue their home dominance over CUSA foes?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAYS

NFL
BALTIMORE
DENVER
The Ravens open up on the road due to a sked conflict with MLB. DEN is out for revenge with Manning a 2nd year removed from his neck inj. BAL did a nice job reloading in the offseason and their win LY gives them confidence here. This is only the 4th time since 1993 the defending SB Champ has been a wk 1 dog.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 30 RAVENS 19

CFL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
EAST CAROLINA
East Carolina has gone 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home the last 2 years vs CUSA opponents including 4-0 last year (3-1 ATS) winning by 18 ppg. FAU was 4-0 ATS LY in B2B road gms.
NO PLAY: EAST CAROLINA 38 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

NFL
*Denver over Baltimore by 4
This may be the revenge game of the year, but Baltimore is too good of an organization not to field a strongly competitive team the year after winning the Super
Bowl. The prideful Ravens lost a lot of leadership and are down key receivers, but
their defense reloaded. It should be quicker and faster with Elvis Dumervil joining
a slimmed down Terrell Suggs and cornerback Lardarius Webb, back from last
year's torn ACL. Von Miller is suspended for six games and the Broncos also could
be missing their best pass defender, Champ Bailey. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS the past
five years in Week 1 games.
DENVER 24-20.

Baltimore at Denver – The Broncos defeated the Ravens, 34-17, on the road
during the regular season last year, but lost 38-35 in overtime at home to Baltimore
in the playoffs.

CFB
East Carolina* over Florida Atlantic by 18
FAU played three quarterbacks vs. Miami – that was by design – and failed to score
a touchdown. It’s hard to envision the Owls keeping pace with the high-octane
Pirates, but FAU under Bo Pelini has covered the spread at a 75 percent clip.
EAST CAROLINA 35-17.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

MLB
BEGINNING THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 5
Boston at N.Y.Yankees (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
This is shaping up as a critical series for the Yankees, though overtaking Boston for the AL East crown is unlikely.The team looks more representative now as they pursue a wild-card berth, with key veterans finally back in the lineup. They’ve been very profitable vs. lefthanders in 2013 (+$835 so far) and they’re expected to face both
Felix Doubront & Jon Lester in the Bronx this weekend.The Red Sox are reasonably comfortable atop the division standings,so there’s less urgency for them to prevail here.
BEST BET: Yankees vs. lefthanders.

Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles averted an ugly sweep in New York last weekend, and they remain very viable in the AL wildcard hunt. They’ve been an offensive juggernaut here at Camden Yards, particularly against righthanders (5.2 runs per game) with a nice overall profit vs. righties in 2013 (+$940). The White Sox enjoyed a decent run in late August, but they’ve resumed their losing ways, suffering a sweep at Fenway Park this past weekend.They’ve been a huge money-burner overall, and their numbers outside of US Cellular are horrendous (only 24-45, -$1605).
BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.

Houston at Oakland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Astros rank dead last in the AL in both pitching (4.82 ERA) and hitting (.239 team BA) and they are only 3-12 vs. the Athletics in head to head play (+$455). But they’ve come up with a pair of exciting young righthanders in Brett Oberholtzer (+$780, 1.98 ERA in six starts) and Jarred Cosart (+$215, 1.59 in eight starts) who have scored huge profits when posted as heavy underdogs. Both are slated to see action at Oakland this weekend, with the Athletics no doubt posted as prohibitive favorites.
BEST BET: Oberholtzer/Cosart.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

NFL
DENVER over Baltimore by 6
Here we go again. The kickoff of the 2013 season rematches last season’s
AFC Division playoff bout, a game in which the Ravens stunned the
heavily favored Broncos, 38-35 in double overtime, on this fi eld in a
game that seemed like it was destined to never end. It was setup when
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones with a 70-yard strike with
31-seconds remaining in regulation. The Flacco fl ing forced OT and the
rest is history, culminating in a Super Bowl win by the Ravens. It was a
football game that, according to Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh,
“did football proud.” It also set the table for this lid-lifter. As a result,
revenge will be fi rst and foremost on the minds of QB Peyton Manning
and his teammates. The question that begs to be answered is – at what
price? In a tale of the tape, perhaps herein lie some of the answers. The
last thirteen defending Super Bowl cham2pions are 12-1 SU and 8-3-2
ATS in season openers, while the Ravens stand 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in this
series this century. Furthermore, defending champs are 11-2 ATS as dogs
of more than 5 points since 1996, including 6-0 ATS the last six (yes, pride
does play a big factor). On the quarterback front, Manning is 9-3 SU and
8-4 ATS against the Black Birds. He was riding a 8-0 SUATS win skein in
Raven rumbles until the playoff faux pas. Manning is also 10-4 SU and 8-5-
1 ATS in season openers, and 3-1 SUATS in head-to-head contests against
Flacco. Super Bowl Joe enters 5-0 SUATS in his career in season-opening
frays and 3-1 SUATS against the Broncos. Flacco is also 2-0 SUATS as a dog
of 8 or more points, with both victories coming in last year’s playoffs. The
bottom line is this… when push comes to shove, quality teams taking
more than a touchdown are an automatic. Denver gets its win. We ring
the register. Cha-ching!

CFB
EAST CAROLINA over Fla Atlantic by 27
ECU opened the season with a 52-38 win over FBS newbie Old Dominion
for Captain Ruffi n McNeill but there’s no denying the ol’ Pirate ship
sprung some serious leaks before game’s end. McNeill was rightly
concerned that his defense got torpedoed for a whopping 460 total yards
but even more troublesome was the fact that the hosts gained a mere 41
rushing yards on 19 carries. Fortunately, ECU QB Shane Carder was dead
on target throughout the contest, connecting on 46 of 54 passes for 5
TDs, 447 aerial yards and zero interceptions. The Pirates’ offensive line
will have a chance to redeem themselves versus a Florida Atlantic rush ‘D’
that had its doors blown off by Miami Florida last week (Canes rushed for
303 yards and averaged 8 YPR). In terms of relative team experience, East
Carolina is defi nitely fi nah. Not only do the Greenville Bucs return the
2nd-highest number of returning starts for FBS teams this season (355) –
including 215 from last season – 25 seniors and 24 juniors (50.5% upper
classmen) dominate the roster of this veteran squad. FAU actually gets
the better of this matchup in the ATS department: the Owls are 4-1 SUATS
versus Conference-USA foes, 4-0 ATS away off a road game under HC Carl
Pelini and 6-1 ATS in their last seven weekday games (compare that to the
sea bandits’ weak 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS record in Thursday tilts). However,
despite FAU’s better pointspread numbers, the feeling here is that ECU is
a team on the come while the Owls may have came and went after their
clash with big brother UM. And while one would think a possible lookahead
to a bigger game with Virginia Tech might be a concern, note that
the Pirates are 6-0 ATS of late in lined games before Hokie hookups. Owls
get fricasseed for a second straight week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

NFL - Ravens

MLB
Cardinals/Reds Over 8
Royals
Red Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

Top Plays

NFL - Ravens

MLB
Giants
Royals
Rays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KING CREOLE from pregame



double-dime bet
451 BAL / 452 DEN OVER 48.0 (http://www.pregameaction.com/?page_id=4?AflId=56607)5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)Analysis:
8:30pm ET - 5:30pm PT / #451-452 / BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DENVER BRONCOS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

The OU line for Game One of the 2013 NFL season opened at 47 points. As of Tuesday, it was up to 48 to 48.5 points. You'll want to get your play in ASAP as this line figures to RISE by the time they kick it off on Thursday night. And the weather forecast looks great for a Game One SHOOTOUT.

Game One ‘BLAST OFF’! We’ll be going OVER the Total in the very first game of the season, as the mighty Broncos look for some Playoff revenge against the defending Super Bowl champions. Last year’s game between these two teams totaled a whopping 73 points. And this BALTIMORE / DENVER series has gone 3-0 O/U in the last 3 meetings (57.3 ppg). Denver is laying a sizable amount of points in this game (in addition to the€ high OU Line). At last look, Denver was -7 to -8 points.
5-0 O/U L4Y: All GAME ONE home favs of -7 > pts (DEN) with an OU line of > 44 points.

In fact, this combo of a Big spread and Big OU line has led to 89% Overs in every game (not just Week One).
8-1 O/U s’2007: ALL non-div conference BIG home favs of -7 > pts w/ an OU line of 48 > pts.

NFL teams who won a LOT of games the previous year have come out BLAZIN’ in their first game.
10-2 O/U L2Y: All GAME ONE home teams who won 10 > games last season (DEN).

Next up, we query our NFL database for any OU patterns that might apply for this particular Day of the Week.
6-1 O/U last 3 years: All THURSDAY non-division games (BAL @ DEN) with an OU line of > 46 points (avg PPG: 61.3!).

The host Broncos are in the AFC West Division while the Ravens are in the AFC North Division. A HIGH-scoring result is usually the case in these games depending on the site.
10-2 O/U since 2006: All AFC WEST home favs (DEN) versus any AFC NORTH opponent (BALT).

From a team-trend perspective:
The RAVENS went 5-1 O/U last year in ‘expected’ HIGH-scoring games with an OU line of > 47 pts (58.2 ppg). In addition, BALTIMORE is 6-1-1 O/U when priced as BIG dogs of +6 >pts... 4-0-1 O/U away bef BB HG... and 4-1 O/U before playing the Browns.

DENVER is a perfect 8-0 O/U vs the AFC North... 4-0 O/U as non-div favs of 7 > pts... and 4-1-1 O/U in their first home game of the year.

Your Game One ‘Mile HIGH’ final score: 34 to 27.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik
451 balt @ 9; lean ov 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RTG Sports - Denver Broncos -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate Adds NFL Regular Play - Ravens/Broncos Over 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cingrani is 3-2, 2.41 in his last six starts.
-- Cahill is 2-0, 3.22 in his last four outings.

-- Guthrie is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Peavy is 2-1, 1.95 in his last four starts. Nova is 4-0, 2.08 in his last six.
-- White Sox won last three Quintana starts (1-0, 3.38).
-- Price is 5-1, 2.80 in his last nine starts.
-- Gray is 2-0, 0.83 in his three home starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lynn is 0-4, 7.45 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.

-- Saunders is 1-3, 7.80 in his last five starts.
-- Gonzalez is 0-4, 8.71 in his last six starts.
-- Williams is 0-3, 5.53 in his last five starts.
-- Peacock is 2-4, 6.34 in his last seven starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Lynn 7-28; Cingrani 4-16
-- Cahill 4-20 (0 of last 8); Vogelsong 6-14

-- Saunders 9-28; Guthrie 7-28 (1 of last 8)
-- Peavy 2-19 (0 of 6 with Bos); Nova 5-15 (1 of last 7)
-- Quintana 9-27; Gonzalez 5-26 (1 of last 10)
-- Price 6-21 (1 of last 8); Williams 6-20 (1 of last 6)
-- Peacock 3-10 (0 of last 4); Gray 2-5

Totals
-- Seven of last eight St Louis road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.

-- Five of last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Bronx games went over the total.
-- Last four White Sox games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Seven of last ten Houston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Royals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Bronx won eleven of its last sixteen games. Red Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Angels won eight of their last eleven games.
-- A's won nine of their last eleven games.

Cold teams
-- St Louis lost four of its last six games. Reds are 3-6 in their last nine.
-- Giants lost ten of their last sixteen games. Arizona lost four of its last six.

-- Mariners lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox lost their last four games. Baltimore lost six of last nine.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Houston lost seven of its last ten games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

141-93 run

17-10-1 run last 28 plays

pod white sox game over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -105 over NY Yanks
(System Record: 73-7, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 73-79-2

Football Crusher
Denver -7.5 over Baltimore
(System Record: 8-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 8-6

Soccer Crusher
Sao Paulo + Criciuma OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 449-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 449-390-59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at NY Yankees

The Red Sox look to take advantage of a New York team that is 2-6 in Ivan Nova's last 8 starts as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.407; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.519
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over


Game 953-954: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 13.558; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.550
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under


Game 955-956: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 15.675; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.547
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+140); Over


Game 957-958: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 17.065; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.509
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under


Game 959-960: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.981; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.387
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-165); Under


Game 961-962: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.362; LA Angels (Williams) 16.359
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+155); Over


Game 963-964: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.688; Oakland (Gray) 16.049
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-260); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1090-821(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Thurs Balt -165

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Reds -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Broncos -7.5
Orioles(RL) -1.5(+125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play Wednesday.

Thursday it's the Yankees.The deficit is 1314 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Sports

NFL
Denver -7.5 over Baltimore

CFB
Florida Atlantic +20.5 over East Carolina

MLB
Oakland -245 over Houston TOP PLAY
Tampa Bay -150 over LA Angels
Kansas City -155 over Seattle
Cincinnati -140 over St. Louis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 2

Thursday's game
East Carolina gave up 370 yards passing in 52-38 win over ODU in its opener; Pirates are 16-10 as home favorites since 2006, 6-4 under Ruffin. ECU has junior QB (13 starts) and experienced OL (88 starts). Florida Atlantic lost its best return guy to grades; they're 7-1 as road dogs after covering in 34-6 (+31) loss at Miami last week (TY 250-503). Owls' QB has only two starts, its OL only 28- they gave up 303 yards rushing at Miami. ECU better not look ahead to Virginia Tech game next week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE--RANDY ROSE

Your Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9 (-135)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Yankees -110

50* East Carolina -20.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SamsWins

NFL
Baltimore @ Denver 7.5 48 09/05 8:30pm et
Baltimore Super Bowl champions have steadily moved away from the running game as they’ve gone more no-huddle the past two seasons. A part of Denver's QB Peyton Manning’s offense, features a lot of pre-snap adjustments and more quick hitters. They’ll go to a three-receiver base with WR Wes Welker coming in, and the former Patriots star will likely take over as Manning’s No. 1 target. Replacing the Raven's Lewis and Ellerbe will be ILBs Daryl Smith and Josh Bynes, who has outplayed rookie Arthur Brown in training camp. Newcomers DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, DL Chris Canty and DB Michael Huff will all help fill these gaping holes.

The total has moved from opening 49 to 48 at William Hill books in Nevada, Stations and the MGM have it at 49. The no-huddle offense that both teams use is a under the total bettors nightmare. The clock can't move fast enough. I know for a fact and not many teams stop Manning's offense so he should get his 3 td's + a couple of FG's even with the upgraded defense the Ravens will put on the field. What a way to start the season playing defense at mile-high and no time to pull up their pants between plays. Most will be looking for that extra breath of air. While Manning goes up and down the field. QB Flacco will also go up against in my opinoin a not so great defense. The Ravens still do have an offense and to good for many teams to keep them from scoring less than 3 td's.

5* The Over 48 is the play!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NFL BALTIMORE at DENVER

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) terrible defense from last season - allowed 360 or more total yards/game
36-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.5% 0.0 units )

NFL BALTIMORE at DENVER

Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games
56-25 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.1% 28.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Denver Broncos -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookBreakers - 9/5


2:10PM Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners +155

7:05PM Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
New York Yankees -106

7:10PM St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Wednesday (3 in a row) with the Angles -130/Ray's.

For Thursday Ben lee has Np for MLB but for the first game on the 2013-2014 NFL season Ben lee likes the Ravins +7.5/Broncos for $50.

"Mr Chalk" is 0-3 -$380 for the week 90-54 +$620 for the 2013 MLB season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

3* kc ml
1* sf ml

1* fiu +21 (cfb)

1* balt +7.5 (nfl)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

BALTIMORE (451) AT DENVER (452)
Latest Line: Broncos -7; Total: 48.5

The defending champion Ravens visit a Broncos team favored to win this year's championship. In last year's playoffs, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw a game-tying, 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds left in regulation in a 38-35 double-overtime win. Flacco is back to lead his team that parted ways with several starters, including retired LB Ray Lewis, but signed Denver DE Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos inked WR Wes Welker to give QB Peyton Manning another weapon, but star LB Von Miller is suspended and starting CBs Champ Bailey (foot) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle) are both questionable.
FORECASTER: Denver 27, Ravens 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

10* Play FAU +20.5 over East Carolina (NCAA TOP PLAY)
7:30 PM EST

East Carolina is 1-7 ATS coming off a home win in their last game

East Carolina is 0-3 ATS after scoring 42 points or more in their last game

10* Play Denver -7.5 Baltimore (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Denver is 7-1 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Denver is 2-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CFB
East Carolina -20 or -20.5

[golden contender]

Big Thursday card has 5* 100% NFL Power System The. MLB Card has Big N.L. West total from 15-1 Totals system and a Triple system play in the Boston at NY Game. NFL is 44 Games over .500 the last 4 seasons combined and MLB Totals cashing 77% the last 2 months. Free MLB Power system Play below.


On Thursday the Free MLB power system play is on the Baltimore Orioles. Game 960 at 7:05 eastern. Baltimore has won 8 of the last 10 here at home and Chicago qualifies in a solid league wide system that has won 11 of 12 times and plays on home favorites at -140 or higher that are off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 5 or more runs. Baltimore starter Gonazelz is 8-2 at home and Chicago starter Quintana allowed 5 runs in 3+ innings in his lone start here in Baltimore. The Orioles are 6-1 at home off a road loss and scored 4 or less runs and 12-4 on Thursday. Chicago is 7-18 as a road dog from +125 to +150 and have lost 7 of the last 8 on the road off a 1 run road loss. Look for Baltimore to win this one. On Thursday we have a Solid card with a 5* NFL play from a 100% System pertaining to opening games. NFL is 44 games over 500 the last 4 seasons. MLB Totals are cashing 77% the last 2 months and tonight we have a 15-1 NL. West System total as well as a Triple system Winner in the Boston at New York game. Jump on now as we start there NFL Season off big and keep cashing in MLB. For the free play take Baltimore. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

MLB
3* (MLB) St Louis Cardinals ML +126

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick: Your pick will be graded at WilliamHill @ -7 -120 Denver
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Sep 5 - 8:30 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on DENVER. 9* main event

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STAR SPORTS INVESTING

Broncos -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/5
Kansas City Royals -165 over the Seattle Mariners (Game Starts at 2:10 PM EST)

(System Record: 131-5, Won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 131-118

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

DENVER 9* main event

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Jack Jones

Den/Balt Over 48

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KYLE HUNTER



Sport
Date
Matchup
Book



MLB
Sep 05 '13
7:10p
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Take: Cincinnati Reds -136
http://www.sportscapping.com/lines/style/book_images/betonline.jpg (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_420b_652)



*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds will finish off a 4 game series in Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Reds won the first two games of this series before the Cardinals won 5-4 in 16 innings last night. The Reds need this game far more than the Cardinals do, and the matchup is great for them. Tony Cingrani is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and the Cardinals have struggled all year against left-handed pitching. Lance Lynn started the season well, but he has worn down of late. Lynn has allowed at least 4 runs in each of this last 4 starts. He has a 5.49 ERA on the road this year. The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a loss. Take Cincinnati here

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Broncos Denver -7

Redsox Boston

Orioles Baltimore


A's Oakland

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Bob Balfe

CINCINNATI REDS -135
(Cingrani/Lynn)

What a great extra inning game last night won by the Cardinals as a backup player stole the show. The Reds are now in desperation mode and need to win this game with their left hander on the mound. Cingrani is the better pitcher this year and the Cardinals have not hit the ball that great as of late and really struggle against lefties. If the Reds lose this you can stick a fork in them. Take Cincinnati.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GGGSports
9/5/13 Play
NFL
1Unit- Den Broncos -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE

MLB TOP PLAY
Baltimore

NFL:
DENVER -7

NCAAF:
Florida Atlantic +20.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoopsgooroo

Broncos -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Sep 05, 2013





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngSeattle @ KANSAS CITY
Seattle +154 over KANSAS CITY

2:10 PM EST. Joe Saunders goes for the Mariners here and we’re not going to sugarcoat this and say that Saunders has a chance to thrive because he rarely does. Saunders will never be above average as long as he has to face righties because of a staggering OPS split against righties and lefties (.451 vL, .849 vR). Our interest level in Saunders remains tepid at best but this has nothing to do with him.
The day we refuse a take-back of more than 7½-5 against Jeremy Guthrie versus anyone not named Houston or Miami, is the day we quit betting on baseball. No question the Royals can win this one but with Guthrie starting, so can the M’s. In 211 games started in his career, Guthrie has a 68-87 record with a BAA of .265. In other wins, he wins about once every three starts. That career BA against of .265 has been surpassed this season with a BAA of .282. Outside of Guthrie’s 4.08 ERA, his skills and numbers across the board are worse this year than they’ve ever been. So, yeah, Joe Saunders is a stiff but so is Guthrie and Saunders isn’t the one laying a ridiculous price. Overlay.



Our Pick
Seattle +154 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.08)



http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngArizona @ SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona +100 over SAN FRANCISCO

Trevor Cahill labored through five innings against the Pirates on August 17 but that was his first game back after spending nearly two months on the DL with a hip contusion. While on the mend, Cahill worked on his mechanics with particular focus on the location of his sinker and the results have been outstanding. In three games since his start against the Pirates, Cahill has faced the Philly and Cincinnati on the road and these same Giants back at Chase Field. That’s three games at three hitter’s park and all Cahill did was allow four earned runs in 17 innings for an ERA of 2.08. Was his new sinker working? Cahill already had an elite groundball rate of 55% before he was injured but since his return that GB rate has increased to 64% and in his last start it was 70%. Fresh and in the midst of a Wild Card chase, Cahill definitely offers up more than his counterpart here, Ryan Vogelsong.
Vogelsong has made five starts now after missing a significant amount of time this season with a broken hand. Many will look at his 2.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP since returning and think he may be rounding into shape, but a quick glance at his 4.44 xERA in that time suggests otherwise. Vogelsong’s batted ball profile of 38%/27%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball since returning reveals some trouble and so does his 80% strand rate over those five starts. Additionally, Vogelsong has had trouble against the Diamondbacks, as current Snakes have 34 hits in 101 career AB’s for a BA of .301 against him. Vogelsong’s numbers since returning are misleading while Trevor Cahill’s are at the other end of that spectrum. That calls for a wager.



Our Pick
Arizona +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)



http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngSt. Louis @ CINCINNATI
St. Louis +125 over CINCINNATI

Tony Cingrani is scheduled to return from the disabled list here after leaving his last start on August 20 with a lower back strain. He returns to face a tough challenge in the Cardinals, who have the best road offense in MLB, where they average 5.0 runs per game. Cingrani only lasted five inning against the Cardinals on August 3 after allowing three runs, walking five and needing 103 pitches to get through those five frames. The helpful combination of a 24% hit rate and 80% strand rate have helped his surface stats look very good but beware of overvaluing him based upon those percentages. Cingrani has a ton of upside but he’s still green and he’s not close to being as good as his 2.76 ERA suggests. Not yet anyway. That said, this one is more about backing Lance Lynn and the Cardinals at a price than it is about fading Cingrani.
Lynn’s 6.83 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in August might leave bad taste in the mouths of most but don't follow suit. Interestingly enough, Lynn did the exact same thing last August when he posted a 6+ ERA and 1.92 ERA in August. Last year, Lynn rebounded with elite September and he figures to repeat that as well. Lynn’s strikeout rate and command trends confirm that there's plenty more growth on the horizon. He continues to be unhittable vs. righties and it's scary to think that Lynn has even more upside than he's currently showing, but it's true. His 50% August strand rate was on the extreme side of unlucky but an elite 61% groundball rate tells us that a ton of groundballs found holes in the infield. Lynn has 162 K’s in 172 innings and he’s not showing signs of fatigue. As a decent priced dog pitching for the always dangerous Cardinals, it’s a combo that is well worth a wager.


Our Pick
St. Louis +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Insiders Club

NFL
Baltimore/Denver OVER 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting As A Business

Today's Free Pick: MLB

Arizona (Cahill) -102 San Francisco (Vogelsong) 10:15 ET
1.25 Units (Play ON ARIZONA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers NFL

Today's Free Picks for Sep 05, 2013





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngBaltimore @ DENVER
DENVER -7½ +109 over Baltimore

Almost every year there is a team of destiny which just wins in spite of what is expected and that gets the right calls, bouncing balls and a sense of chemistry that seems to just appear later in the season. Not that the Ravens were a bad team, but they ended the year as the best of all and that’s all that matters. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. The Ravens get to re-assert themselves now with different personnel and show that it was no fluke and that the NFL is not just a reality show scripted by Ray Lewis. The Ravens went into 2012 wanting Joe Flacco to prove himself before re-upping him with a new contract. That merely cost them $120 million for six years. That was a King's ransom for a quarterback who never passed for more than 3817 yards or 25 touchdowns in a season. For whatever reason, Flacco had maybe the best four games of his career in the playoffs. Flacco threw for multiple touchdowns in only three of his first 13 games until catching fire at the right time. Of the Ravens three main receivers now, they combined for only one season over 1000 yards and that was Brandon Stokley when he had that freakish year as a Colt nine years ago. Rare is so much rebuilding on a team that won it all last year but that’s precisely the situation for Baltimore this year. Dennis Pitta became Flacco's security blanket last year and scored three times in the playoffs. But he suffered a badly dislocated hip in July that may force him to miss the entire season and in all cases a good chunk of the year to start. That leaves blocking tight end Ed Dickson and 34-year old Dallas Clark who has been a non-factor since 2009. The passing game no longer has Pitta or Anquan Boldin. That's a big chunk of the offense that someone has to fill. Again, not a positive development.
The Broncos were the team to beat in the AFC last year and that is exactly what these Ravens did. Peyton Manning's first season back from neck surgery was a huge success and he brought along the entire offense with him. It was a bitter pill to swallow when the Ravens pulled out the win and don’t think the Broncos have forgotten that. Denver’s offense has even been upgraded with Wes Welker and Montee Ball in the backfield. The defense may not be quite as good for 2013, but that only means more Peyton Manning and that is always a good thing.After sitting out a year with a bad neck, Peyton Manning came back in pretty good form. His 4659 yards ranked second best in his career as did his 37 touchdowns. He never failed to throw at least one touchdown in every game and only four times did he not end up with multiple touchdown passes. He was vintage Manning while making Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker into his new version of Harrison/Wayne. And now he gets Wes Welker? And an easy schedule? Just hardly seems fair. Manning passed for 290 yards and three scores on the Ravens in the Divisional Round last year. He threw two interceptions and lost one fumble in a very uncharacteristic game. He might remember that day.
While it is early to consider any obituary for the Ravens defense, the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will have some effect, perhaps not the profound negative that some believe but it’s worth noting that Bernard Pollard is also gone. That all said, the Broncos are at home here in front of the world against the team that derailed what was thought to be a certain Super Bowl bid. The Broncos make a big statement tonight and it comes at the expense of the Ravens. 7½-points may seem like a big number but that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think.



Our Pick
DENVER -7½ +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)






http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngWEEK 1 Survivor Pool
DENVER over Baltimore
NFL Survivor Pool Pick - WEEK 1
Once again this season we are going to attempt to pick one straight up winner each week while not being allowed to use the same team more than once in a season. Most people will look to the biggest favorites of the week and choose one of them and that’s a “safe” way to play but here’s the problem with that philosophy. In the unlikely event that you avoid a big upset each week and remain standing, at the end of the pool, you will end up splitting it with many others. Furthermore, when an upset occurs and you’re on that team, you will get eliminated along with 25%-35% of the remaining entrants. In other words, any favorites of seven points or more usually cover 90% of the entrants. Let’s say there are three teams that are favored by 7 points or more. Those 3 teams will be chosen by approximately 90% of the entrants in your pool or 30% each. In Week 1, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh will likely be split up almost evenly by about 85% of your pool and that’s what we are trying to avoid.
We also avoid playing road favorites because they simply don’t win enough and they are almost always in line for an upset. Road chalk like the Bucs, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers in Week 1 are far too risky for our liking and that brings us to our pick: DENVER.
Yes, the Broncos are among that group of teams that are favored by 7 points or more but because it’s a Thursday night game and because they are playing the Super Bowl champs, only 20% or less of your pool entrants will be choosing them. Think you shouldn't be picking against the Super Bowl champions and their $120 million quarterback? Think again. Not only is the game at Mile High Stadium but Denver ranked as the second-most efficient team in 2012, behind only the Patriots. Denver owned the No. 2 defense in the NFL last season and although they are without Von Miller, they figure to play just as hard. The Ravens show up with less of a team than last year with notable defections/retirements on both sides of the ball. Because they are the ruling Super Bowl champs, they better get used to everyone bringing their A+ game against them. The extremely focused Broncos figure to do just that. Nobody wants to get eliminated in Week 1 and of all the “big favorites”, this one will be the least played among pool entrants and we’re suggesting it has the best chance of winning.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

Super Pk Tampa w/ Price

Trophy Play Over total Den/Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

CFB 302 East Carolina -20.0 (-110) 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE REAL ANIMAL SPORTS

Thursday free play 3* East Carolina OVER 55

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Statpicks

NFL: ravens/broncos - over 48

MLB: Cincinnati

NCAAF: Florida Atlantic +20

POD (5-5): MLB - Cincinnati

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

miami oh
boston redsox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Real Animal

Thursday free play is 3* East Carolina 'OVER' 55:

East Carolina last week beat Old Dominion 52-38 with a 481-460 narrow edge in total yards. ECU QB Shane Garden (formally at Texas Tech) was 46-of-54 with no picks for 447 yards. The Pirates threw it 54 times and only attempted 22 rushes. Meanwhile Monarchs QB Taylor Heinicke went 38-of-51 for 338 yards with three touchdowns also ran another in. He certainly had no trouble moving the ball on the ECU defense. East Carolina runs a no-huddle offense with a 2-1 ratio of passes to rushes. I like any total with ECU ‘OVER’ providing it’s 56 or less. The Pirates lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl to Louisiana-Lafayette 43-34. Their final six games resulted in total points of 77, 124, 51, 76, 84, and 77 points. This team averaged 31.5 a game and allowed 31.6. You know with the ESPN cameras around, the Pirates are going to want to score points. I know Florida Atlantic didn’t show much on offense last week at Miami. But it’s a different athlete on defense that plays for the Hurricanes compared to East Carolina. FAU allowed 30.8 points per game last year. They should have allowed many more points at Miami. The Hurricanes dropped several easy touchdown passes early and then also fumbled at the 1-yard line. Miami had 503 total yards scoring 34 points. They could have easily had 50. I do expect ECU to run more tonight given the fact Miami had 303 yards on the ground at nearly eight yards per carry. Last week the two-QB system for FAU was a no-go after Greg Hankerson left the Hurricane game with bruised ribs. But he’s been cleared to play tonight. I expect the Owls to put significantly more points on the board tonight. “We had a lot of big sets against Miami, played a lot of base defense,” FAU Coach Carl Pelini said. “This week we will see a lot more three wides, four wides, five wides, sometimes empty, spread the field a lot more. Very, very different offense than Miami.” My sharp house had a bump at 2:18PM ET raising the ECU total from 53 to 56! That is some serious steam! FYI: ECU is 6-0 ATS the week before facing Virginia Tech.

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Scott Spreitzer

3* Denver -7

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MajorCovers

FAU +20.5
Balt/Denver Over 48.5

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Sweetjones55

2 team NFL 7 pt. teaser: Denver pk & Indy -3

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SB Professor

no plays in 3.0 or Original systems for NCAAF or NFL

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9xSports

(NCAA Football) 7:30PM EAST CAROLINA-20

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Umpire UNDER streaker

Rob Drake NYY/BOS (11-3-1 L15)

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Brian Edwards

Baltimore Ravens +8

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Vegas Hot Sheet

NFL
Baltimore Ravens

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Bryan Leonard MLB Money Line Thu, 09/05/13 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet - 957 BOS (-102) vs 958 NYY

Jake Peavy and Ivan Nova will kick off a big four-game series for both teams in the Bronx. Peavy has come as advertised for the Red Sox with a 3.18 ERA in six starts. Peavy has focused on keeping the ball down and pitching to contact rather than trying to strike hitters out and it has actually improved his overall numbers. Despite a drop in strikeouts, batters hit just .215 off of Peavy in August. That coincided with a drop in home runs allowed and Peavy's LOB% was not out of the ordinary, despite the drop in strikeouts. That seems to be a change that the Red Sox front office suggested and it has paid off handsomely. By changing speeds more effectively, Peavy turned long fly balls into pop ups, hence the increased success. Now pitching for a contender, Peavy seems to have more focus and we expect a big start from him in this game.

Ivan Nova has become the flavor of the month pitcher since his return from the DL. We're not buying it. Nova has seen a drop in strikeouts as he has shifted from throwing four-seam fastballs to throwing more sinkers. His ground ball rate went up to 57 percent in August, the highest of the season. The problem with more ground balls is that more of them go for hits and Nova was rather lucky in that regard in August. In fact, Nova has been pretty fortunate all season long. His LOB% for the year is 80.4 percent, nearly 10 percent above the annual league average. In July and August, during Nova's hot stretch, his LOB% has been 85.6 percent and 85.4 percent. That's completely unsustainable, especially coinciding with a drop in strikeouts.

We'll go with the more experienced guy with the more sustainable recent results than the guy who could be consumed by the moment and has some regression coming very soon.

PLAY: BOSTON

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Harry Bondi

College Football Free Pick

OVER 55 POINTS
East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
7:30 p.m. ET

After a winner on Florida State over Pitt on Monday night, we are now 10-5 on our last 15 FREE PICKS. Both of these squads can score but don't play a lick of defense! East Carolina has averaged 46 points a game in their last 8 games but are giving up 34 points per game in the same time period. Last week, the Pirates put up 52 points versus Old Dominion but allowed the Monarchs to score 38. Florida Atlantic should be able to score at least that and after facing Miami's tough defense last week they should be able to torch the Pirates weak secondary. Take the OVER 55 in tonight's East Carolina - Florida Atlantic shootout.

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NO Coast Marquees Over Denver broncos 48 College Fla ATLANTIC + 21 Both games marquees

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Michael Tang (Totalsforyou)

1* Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina (4:30pm PST)

Pick: Florida Atlantic +21 @-130

2* Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants (7:15pm PST)
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML @-115

Sunday:
1* Pittsburgh Steelers/Indianapolis Colts 2 Team Teaser

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Football Sack
Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos OVER 48 ($500)

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RICH SPORTS

Leans
CHW - OVER 8
Oak TT OVER 4.5
Den - UNDER 48.5
FAU + 21

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Ben Burns

Opening Night Main Event
9* Denver Broncos

I'm playing on DENVER
I won with the Ravens when these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. At the time, I felt that the Ravens weren't getting enough respect and that the Broncos were a bit over-valued. Considering that the Ravens, now defending SB champs, are again getting a lot of points, many likely feels that's the case again. I'm no longer among them.

The Ravens definitely peaked at the right time last season. However, they weren't necessarily the most talented or the best team. Now, in addition to having a bulls-eye on their back, they've also suffered some key personnel losses.

True, the Broncos will be without OLB Von Miller, which is indeed significant. This is still a very talented defense though - one which is superior to the Ravens' defense, at least in my opinion.

The Broncos obviously have payback on their minds. After all, they were a play away from beating these Ravens - and may well have gone on to win the SB if they'd been able to make that play. I believe the entire team is chomping at the bit to have their revenge.

Last year, due to the fact that he was returning from injury and adjusting to a new team, Manning was a bit of an unknown quantity. While he is a year older now, that's no longer the case. He's a year removed from his injury and is also entirely familiar with his team.

Manning had big numbers in the playoff loss but also threw two interceptions. As if he wasn't dangerous enough, he now also has Wes Welker to throw to. I expect him to be fully ready to go and for the Broncos to pull away for a double-digit win.
9* main event

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Chris Jordan

300 over 24 first half den/bal

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Marco d'angelo

3* Cincinnati mlb

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Bankroll Sports

Free Pick
2* Boston Red Sox -110

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Ultra Sports MLB

Cincinnati -142 list Cingrani vs Lynn

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Seabass Report for Thursday:
100 OVER East Carolina
50 OVER Arizona
50 UNDER Red Sox
50 OVER St. Louis

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The Winners Circle

Thursday Football Plays

10* Play Denver -7.5 over Baltimore (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Denver has won 48 of the last 76 games when playing in the month of September and they have also won 29 of the last 41 games when playing in the 1st two weeks of the season. Denver has won 45 of the last 56 games when playing as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and they have won 33 of the last 48 games vs. AFC North Division Opponents.

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TKWins












Sport
League
Competitor
Selection
Odds
Units
Game Date / GameTime






VIP FULL ACCESS
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Sea Mariners J Saunders-l V/s KC ROYALS J GUTHRIE -R
Under Total
u9-105
6
05 Sep 2013 / 2:10 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Stl Cardinals L Lynn -r V/s CIN REDS T CINGRANI-L
Cin Reds T Cingrani-l
-134
3
05 Sep 2013 / 7:10 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN
Florida Atlantic V/s EAST CAROLINA
East Carolina
-20-110
3
05 Sep 2013 / 7:30 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
NFL - REGULAR SEASON
Bal Ravens V/s DEN BRONCOS
Den Broncos
-7-120
3
05 Sep 2013 / 8:30 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN
Cs Sacramento V/s ARIZONA STATE
Cs Sacramento
+37-110
3
05 Sep 2013 / 10:00 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Ari D`backs T Cahill -r V/s SFO GIANTS VOGELSONG -R
Under Total
u7-110
3
05 Sep 2013 / 10:15 pm

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Al Demarco

15 DIME play on the Over between the Ravens and Broncos in Denver. The total is sitting at 48 1/2 points as of 3:35 AM Pacific.

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Allen Eastman

East Carolina
Ravens

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Dwayne Bryant

MLB -- 7:10 pm ET
2 Units
[952] CINCINNATI REDS -143
List Lynn & Cingrani

St. Louis is much less productive offensively against lefties, ranking 25th
in MLB in OPS against southpaws. The Cardinals are just 16-21 against
lefties this season, averaging 3.9 runs per game (3.5 rpg in 12 road night
games). They face a lefty tonight in Cincinnati's Tony Cingrani, who owns a
2.76 ERA & 1.06 WHIP in his 16 starts this season. This will be his first
start since 8/20, as he was just activated from the 15-day disabled list
after dealing with a lower back strain. All that means to me is that his
arm should be fresh. The Reds bullpen is in good current form, so I'm
confident they'll hold the lead after Cingrani outpitches Lynn.

St. Louis righty Lance Lynn gets the start tonight. Lynn has given up at
least four runs in each of his last four starts & owns a 7.94 ERA & 2.06
WHIP in his last three outings. Lynn has also struggled on the road this
season, where he sports a 5.49 ERA & 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts. Given his
current form, I expect the Reds to have success against Lynn tonight. After
losing last night's 16-inning marathon game, the Reds need the win tonight
to close on the Cards & solidify a Wild Card berth. The matchup points to
the Reds getting that W tonight. CINCINNATI is the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS 3 Balt
Mike Neri 3 Balt over

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donn wagners group/one on one sports

has top under in gaints-arz game

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donn wagners group - action jackson

goy denver

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Cappersports

Flor atl +19
over flor atl 56
over Denver 48

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INTPICKS

NFL

2 Stars

8:30 PM ET

Baltimore @ Denver

Play OVER 48.5

College Football

2 Stars

7:30 PM ET

Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina

Play OVER 54

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Mike Neri

3* OVER - Baltimore/Denver

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Jimmy Moore

Baltimore +7

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Andy Iskoe

Ravens +7.5

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Sharp Football Analysis

Over Ravens

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Steve Fezzik

NFL OPENING NIGHT BEST BET

Baltimore+9

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SPORTS BANK
300 east carolina

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MILLIONAIRES CLUB
denver

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LT Lock (Not associated with LT Profit)

EC/FLorida Atlantic UNDER 57

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HSW-Regular play on Denver

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Michael David:

Denver

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Harry Bondi

3* Denver

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ROOT

Millionaire Denver