9-10-13 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 09:24 PM

College football line watch: Jump on BC +14 now
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Boston College Eagles (+14) at USC Trojans

True, this number projected closer to three TDs a few weeks ago. But that was before we had a chance to take a look at the product the under-fire Lane Kiffin has put on the field this season at USC. And before the rumor mill began to really whirr in L.A., where some wise-guy Trojan backers are now joking that Nancy Grace might begin telecasting her HLN show from the SC campus until AD Pat Haden decides what to do with his coach. Thus, this matchup vs. BC becomes a litmus test for the “Reputation vs. Realty” theory, as the eye test through two weeks would hardly suggest the Trojans even being favored in this game. Expect more discounting of SC in the marketplace as the wagering public becomes keen to Kiffin’s five straight spread losses and 3-12 mark vs. the line since last season. And with the offense looking a mess (especially at QB) and Kiffin walking some very thin ice with dissatisfied SC boosters (and, at some point, we assume, AD Haden), we hardly see any appetite to “buy” on the Trojans, even from those who wear the Cardinal & Gold blazers. Remember, like an airline bankruptcy, it takes a while for the wagering public to come to the reality that former power program isn’t very good anymore, but we suspect the anti-SC sentiment is just revving up in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, the last memory of new HC Steve Addazio’s edition at BC was the impressive Friday night beatdown the Eagles inflicted upon Wake Forest, and in combo with the anti-Kiffin sentiment, this number should drop well below 2 TDs as the week progresses. BC supporters should grab the available 14s while they can.

Spread to wait on

Virginia Tech Hockies (-7.5) at East Carolina Pirates

A few years ago, we could always count on some VPI money showing up at windows of Las Vegas sports books as the Hokies became a lower-grade “public” team for HC Frank Beamer. Now, however, with only eight spread covers in their last 30 games dating to late in the 2010 season, pro-Hokie support in Vegas has disappeared faster than Mitt Romney after last November’s election. Early pricing on this Saturday’s matchup at East Carolina has Beamer laying a tick over 7 at most Nevada outlets. But with so many wagerers burned by VPI the past few years, expect some anti-Hokie money to show up soon, especially with close followers a bit intrigued by ECU and its gunslinger QB Shane Carden.

This price should move beneath the key number of 7 at some point later in the week. So, if looking to beat the crowd to a VPI resurgence and back the Hokies, you might as well wait for a few days, when it would be no surprise if the price dips below that very-key number of 7.

Total to watch

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks

The marketplace usually reacts to pronounced team pointspread trends with a bit more vigor than it does to “totals” tendencies. Nonetheless, we are going to be intrigued if there is much “under” pressure at the Las Vegas sports books with this SEC matchup on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. Both Vandy and South Carolina have already been involved in a couple of nationally-televised shootouts this season, but the recent series history between these two has been overwhelmingly to the “under” side, with none of the last four games even cracking a combined 30-point barrier, and “unders” 5-0-1 the last six meetings. In fact, the Dores and Gamecocks have not cracked this week’s early posted “total” of 50 since way back in 2005, when Jay Cutler was still throwing passes for Vandy.

The majority of “totals” moves have been upwards this season, but we’ll see how much emphasis the marketplace puts upon the low-scoring history between these two SEC East rivals, or if the public needs more current evidence to push this “total” downward.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 09:26 PM

RAS Week 3

119 Marshall -6.5
107 Troy +10.5
164 Midd Tenn St -4.5
176 South Fla -10.5

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 09:28 PM

NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report
By JASON LOGAN

If you’re looking for coverage or analysis on any other game but Denver at New York this week, don’t hold your breath.

The “Manning Bowl” headlines the Week 2 schedule and you won’t hear about another game, team or player until the media vultures have picked this family feud clean.

Oddsmakers opened this game at Denver -2.5 following the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football and have since suggested a push to Denver -4 following the Giants’ sloppy showing in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.

“Just the fact that the Giants didn’t look sharp, we have to move this line because of the public perception of how each team looked in Week 1,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “As good as Denver was and how the Giants looked last night, we know that will stick in the minds of bettors. So we upped it a point and a half.”

For those of you keeping score, Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU and ATS versus his brother Eli Manning for their careers. The total for Sunday’s Round 3 of the “Manning Bowl” opened at 48 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44.5)

Overshadowed by sibling rivalry is this NFC West war between what many consider to be the two best teams in the NFL.

The Seahawks and Niners have a good thing going, which according to those Madden 25 commercials, started when Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson were at summer camp in the 90’s. I’ll have to fact check that one.

Most online books opened Seattle -3 while Korner and his team of oddsmakers came to the table with the spread as low as a pick. They eventually sent out Seahawks -3 but said things will get tricky in Northern Nevada – Reno and Tahoe – also known as Niners Country.

“I don’t know if the people up north can put up San Francisco as a dog,” he says. “They’ll be flood with 49ers action regardless. Northern Nevada is all Bay Area up there. I feel for them on this one.”

Korner says he’s much more impressed with San Francisco’s win over Green Bay and wasn’t convinced by the Seahawks’ efforts against Carolina. He expects this spread to come down quite a bit before kickoff on Sunday night.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

Some shops opened this AFC East matchup as low as New England -10 and watched wiseguys smack the hell out of the odds, driving the spread all the way to -13.

That isn’t enough points, according to Korner, who sent out the Patriots -13.5 and expects that line to keep climbing before Thursday.

“Before the Jets won and the Patriots had a hard time (versus Buffalo in Week 1), this would clearly be two touchdowns. It’s a total anti-Jet number. We don’t get swayed on results too much. This is a gift. Who’s betting the Jets? Really, who? This is a classic favorite and over for a marquee standalone game.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 40.5)

Perhaps the biggest knee-jerk reaction from Week 1 revolves around the Steelers’ struggles after losing 16-9 to Tennessee. Pittsburgh didn’t perform well in the preseason and bettors are well aware of the aging core of stars keeping the Steelers intact.

Korner originally sent out Bengals -4 but admits he underestimated the market and gives credit where credit is due to those who opened Cincinnati just shy of a touchdown.

“The offshore guys had a better opening line,” he says. “I wasn’t as high on Cincinnati as others. I agree with the move to six and will be suggesting that everyone keep this one high.”

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 09:29 PM

Bettors beware big MLB moneyline favorites
By JASON LOGAN

The Oakland Athletics are holding strong atop the American League West while the Houston Astros dwindle at the bottom, after the A’s took two of the first three games of a four-game set this week.

However, if you were betting on Oakland during that span, you’re in the red thanks to the hefty price tags on the home side. The Athletics were tabbed as -275, -270 and “thrifty” -217 favorites during the first three games of the series, and a $100 Oakland bettor would down almost $17 over those three contests.

Moneylines in the -270 and up range are more common this time year, especially when a playoff-bound team plays a basement dweller with no motivation in September. While the odds may look like a sure thing, big MLB favorites have been anything but money in the bank this season.

Favorites of -270 or higher are just 9-7 as of Sunday. If you bet $100 on each of those teams you would be down more than -$388. Moneyline chalk of -300 or higher is a bankroll draining 2-4. The Texas Rangers are 1-2 as -300 or more favorites while Detroit is 1-1 and Tampa Bay lost its lone game as a -320 favorite.

Last year, big MLB favorites lived up to the oddsmakers expectations. Teams priced between -270 and up went a collective 15-2. In 2011, those moneyline monsters were 10-4. Those most consistent winners over the past three years (2011-2013) have been favorites between -270 and -280, which are a combined 12-2.

There was a rash of big favorites between 2009 and 2010, with a total of 77 games having a moneyline favorite of -270 and above. Those high-priced teams went a collective 56-14, which may seem like a respectable record until you size up the return on investment on those massive odds.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 10:17 PM

Tuesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's American League games:

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-123, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA and just three home runs allowed in nine second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: New York OF Ichiro Suzuki is batting .308 in 13 at-bats against Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez, and homered off him in their last encounter Aug. 30 at Yankee Stadium.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-3-1 in Tillman's last 14 home starts.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-121, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie is 3-3 with a 5.83 ERA in seven career starts and two relief appearances against the Indians, who selected him 22nd overall in 2002.

Hot/Cold batting stat: Indians OF Nick Swisher is 13-for-37 with two homers and nine RBIs lifetime against Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 18-6-2 in Cleveland right-hander Zach McAllister's last 26 home starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle is 6-0 in his last nine outings, recording seven quality starts over that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout has four home runs in 13 career games against the Blue Jays.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the teams.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rays ace David Price has dropped back-to-back starts, surrendering 10 runs over 14 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Red Sox OF Daniel Nava has struggled against Price against his career, going 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in Price's last eight starts with four days' rest.

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (+154, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics righty Jarrod Parker has won nine consecutive decisions, and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since July 28.

Cold batting stat: Twins C Ryan Doumit is a career .235 hitter with zero home runs and eight strikeouts in 34 at-bats against the Athletics.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Minnesota has lost 10 of right-hander Liam Hendriks' last 11 home starts.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+133, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello was roughed up in his last outing, allowing nine runs over five innings of a 20-4 trouncing at the hands of the Boston Red Sox.

Cold batting stat: White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez is hitting just .186 with a solo homer in 43 career at-bats versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit is 10-1 in Porcello's previous 11 starts against the White Sox.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-155, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners left-hander Joe Saunders is 3-5 with a 6.49 ERA and a .368 opposition batting average in 10 second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 2B Nick Franklin is 4-for-9 with a pair of home runs against Astros starter Jordan Lyles.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-0 in Saunders' last five home starts.

Interleague

Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (-115, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano is 4-1 with one save and a 3.10 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances against the Rangers.

Cold batting stat: Texas OF Alex Rios is batting just .241 with eight strikeouts in 29 at-bats against Liriano.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers have won starter Martin Perez's last seven outings, five of them coming away from Texas.

** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:18 p.m. Monday

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 10:20 PM

Tuesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's National League games:

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner is 0-2 over his last four starts, but has surrendered just five earned runs over 28 innings in that span to lower his ERA by nearly half a point.

Cold batting stat: Phillies 2B Chase Utley is a .317 hitter with 13 homers and 38 RBIs in 47 career games against San Diego.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: San Diego is 3-7 in Cashner's last 10 outings following a quality start in his previous appearance.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+154, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 54 strikeouts in eight starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Marlins OF Justin Ruggiano has one hits and four strikeouts in 10 at-bats all-time versus Teheran.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves are 6-1 in Teheran's previous seven starts against teams with losing records.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+123, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has lost a pair of starts to the Mets over the past month and a half, surrendering eight runs over 14 1/3 innings in those outings.

Hot batting stat: Mets 2B Daniel Murphy has been a thorn in Zimmermann's side, batting .314 with three homers in 35 at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine Tuesday games.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-210, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani was sensational in his previous start against the Cubs, limiting them to two runs on four hits over seven innings of a 12-2 drubbing.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Reds roster are batting a collective .236 with two homers in 110 at-bats against Chicago starter Edwin Jackson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 25 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in the Cubs' last nine games against a left-handed starter.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-190, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 22 hits allowed in 9 1/3 career innings against the Cardinals.

Cold batting stat: Milwaukee hitters are batting just .200 in 18 1/3 innings against St. Louis rookie starter Shelby Miller.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Milwaukee is 2-8 in Peralta's previous 10 starts against the National League Central.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Edinson Volquez is 4-7 with a 5.64 ERA and 40 walks in 75 home innings so far in 2013.

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks righty Trevor Cahill has never lost to the Dodgers, going 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts against them.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 11-2 in their last 13 Tuesday contests.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-110, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa has won his last six starts, surrendering just two home runs over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Colorado SS Troy Tulowitzki is hitless in seven at-bats against San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Colorado has won 11 of De La Rosa's last 15 starts against the Giants.

** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:09 p.m. Monday

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 10:21 PM

USA vs Mexico: What bettors need to know

The Stars and Stripes team-record 12-game winning streak came to a screeching halt against Costa Rica last week and they'll look to start up another one against familiar foe Mexico Tuesday in World Cup Qualifying.

USA v Mexico (+138, +210, +210)

Site: Crew Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

Why bet the USA: You can't win 'em all. Costa Rica may have won 3-1 but it was in their backyard and they do have an above average squad. The problem with that game is that the USA lost some good players and will have to dip into the talent pool to field a squad versus Mexico. Midfielder Michael Bradley has been ruled out with a sprained left ankle and Jozy Altidore, Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler are suspended after collecting yellow cards against Los Ticos.
The US does have some players to choose from and head coach Jurgen Klinsmann has called on Clarence Goodson, Joe Corona, Jose Torres and Brad Davis. The Mexican side is in a bit of shambles as well. They sacked head coach Jose Manuel de la Torre after an humiliating 2-1 defeat to Honduras. Mexico is currently fourth in the table with just one victory, five draws and one defeat in their World Cup qualifying campaign.

Why bet Mexico: On paper, Mexico is a talented side. They boast Manchester United poacher Chicharito, Villareal forward Gio dos Santos and Valenica midfielder Andrés Guardado. This is a strong side, but clearly something during this qualifying run was/is amiss. Potentially, that has been rectified with the firing of de la Torre. El Tricolor are a unit that, when meshed well, can play with just about anyone. They have goals in them and even though they haven't been in the best of form, are still dangerous.

Previous World Cup qualifier result: Mexico 0, USA 0 (in Mexico)

Key betting note: The USA has won the previous three competitive matches versus Mexico in Columbus by a scoreline of 2-0 each time. All of which were World Cup qualifiers.

* If the USA beats Mexico and Honduras collects a victory against Panama, the USA punches its ticket to Brazil 2014.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 11:00 PM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

It was more of the same for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. A year after squeaking out so many close wins on last-minute drives, Indianapolis and QB Andrew Luck put together another come-from-behind victory versus Oakland Sunday.

Some say these nail bitters prove the Colts don’t belong in the Super Bowl conversation. Indy will get the chance to prove those doubters wrong when they tangle with San Francisco in Week 3. However, lurking in a potential lookahead spot are the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Miami rolled Cleveland in its opener and its defense picked off three passes and forced two fumbles in the win. The Fins are getting a field goal on the road.

Letdown spot

One of the big shockers from Week 2 of the college football season was Illinois’ 45-17 thrashing of Cincinnati. Books had the Illini pegged as 7.5-point home underdogs before things took a bad turn for the Bearcats. The momentum swung when a Cincy TD run was called back in the third quarter and QB Munchie Legaux was knocked out of the game in the fourth.

Illinois took full advantage and heads into Week 3’s date with Washington at a surprising 2-0. Oddsmakers opened the Illini as 8-point home dogs and sharp money chased that spread all the way to +10.5. It seems the wiseguys are also expecting a letdown from Illinois in Week 3.

Schedule spot

The Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a nine-game road trip with an interleague set against the Texas Rangers this week. The Pirates, reeling from a draining three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (going 0-3), will get no mercy from the Rangers or the scorching Texas sun.

Temperatures in Arlington are expected to hit the high 90s during the Bucs’ stay, especially during the final game of the series Wednesday. East Coast clubs have notoriously wilted in the Texas heat and you can expect Pittsburgh to be running on fumes during this interleague showdown.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 11:01 PM

NFL Top 5: Players primed for a Week 2 bounceback

The opening Sunday of the NFL season saw plenty of inspired offensive performances - and more than a few clunkers, as well. Fortunately, with the next game less than a week away, players off to slow starts have an immediate chance at redemption.

Here are five players who are in good position for a Week 2 rebound (Week 1 totals in parentheses):

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (16-for-23, 125 yards, TD)

Newton was effective when he actually passed the ball, but the Seattle defense made life difficult for him all afternoon long. The former first overall pick was also done in by frequent drops from tight end Greg Olsen which ultimately cost Carolina a chance at a big Week 1 victory. Newton will find things a lot easier this coming week, when he takes on a Buffalo Bills team that allowed Tom Brady to rack up nearly 300 passing yards in a narrow New England win.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (10 carries, 3 yards)

Miller was awful in the Dolphins' opener, failing to post a single run longer than five yards and losing a pivotal goal-line carry to backup Daniel Thomas. With Ryan Tannehill (24-for-38, 272 yards) moving the ball well, there was less of a need to rely on the running game. Miller should find plenty more success in Week 2, as Miami faces an Indianapolis Colts team that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up 171 to Oakland on Sunday.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (15 carries, 45 yards)

The 2011 NFL rushing champion was stymied all afternoon, breaking off just one double-digit run before being rendered an afterthought once the Jaguars fell way behind. Unless quarterback Blaine Gabbert (16-for-35, 121 yards, 2 INT) figures it out in a hurry, Jones-Drew could be in for a lot of rest come the third and fourth quarters of blowouts. This week should bear more fruit as the Jags visit the woeful Oakland Raiders.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (four catches, 37 yards)

The hand-wringing over Johnson's pedestrian Week 1 totals looks a lot like the reaction people had last season, when Johnson's slow start to the year had some wondering if he was hurt or struggling with his rapport with Matthew Stafford. We all know how that turned out. Johnson won't have an easy time of it in Detroit's Week 2 tilt with Arizona, but it's a safe bet he'll see plenty of targets against a Cardinals team carved up by Sam Bradford on Sunday.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (zero catches, zero yards, one target)

Sudfeld was the darling of fantasy sleeper enthusiasts, but looked remarkably un-Gronk-like in his first career NFL game. Sudfeld's only target resulted in an interception, and his limited snap count likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. With Rob Gronkowski expected back soon, Week 2 is a pivotal one for Sudfeld; luckily for him, the Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday in what should be a rout.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 11:02 PM

NFL betting: McGahee the fave to join Giants

The New York Giants had problems running the ball and holding onto the ball in Sunday's 36-31 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Da'Rel Scott, David Wilson and QB Eli Manning combined for 50 yards on 14 carries as the Giants struggled to find any consistency in the running game.

Wilson had a pair of lost fumbles and was subsequently benched to cap a fairly atrocious evening for the back.

The chatter now is that the G-Men will look for a veteran replacement on the free agent market, notably Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee, who will work out for the team Tuesday.

Sportsbook.ag has listed odds on which free agent running back the Giants will sign.

Willis McGahee +140
Brandon Jacobs +175
Michael Turner +250
Cedric Benson +250
Beanie Wells +250
Kevin Smith +300

Can'tPickAWinner

09-09-2013, 11:03 PM

Reaction or Overreaction? Pro handicappers weigh NFL Week 1 results

The most common mistake a NFL bettor can make is overreacting to Week 1 outcomes.

While Week 1 tells us a lot about where teams are headed, it’s a snapshot of the big picture and banking on opening day results when wagering on Week 2 can get the season started on the wrong foot.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest handicappers what they saw in Week 1, and what bettors should and shouldn’t react to.

REACT TO…

Bruce Marshall – “The New Orleans Saints. If the Saints were going to re-emerge as the team to beat in the NFC South, they simply had to beat Atlanta in the opener. Mission accomplished. Better yet, they rallied from 10-0 down and needed their defense to hold on for the win. The road to the NFC South title now runs through the Superdome, where the Sean Payton Saints have now won and covered 10 in a row.”

Teddy Covers – “Pittsburgh catching 6.5 next Monday Night. The Steelers lost a lot of defensive leadership this past offseason and their top two pass catchers from last year are hurt (Heath Miller) or gone (Mike Wallace). Pittsburgh had won at least three preseason games in every previous season under Mike Tomlin. This year, they went 0-4. The opening day loss of Maurkice Pouncey is as impactful an injury as we've seen all year. Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.”

Steve Merril – “The New York Jets. The Jets were miserable offensively last year, but it does look like rookie QB Geno Smith might give them a spark offensively this season. He led them to a late-drive victory and played well overall.”

Sean Murphy – “Bettors should react to bad defensive performances. At this early stage of the season, the defenses should be ahead of the offenses, but that certainly wasn't the case for some teams in Week 1. I think it's easier to show offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 than it is to turn things around defensively.”

DON’T OVERREACT TO…

Doc’s Sports – “I would not overact to the loss by the Green Bay Packers against San Francisco. I actually felt the Packers offensive line played outstanding against one of the best defenses in the league. If not for a couple of bad calls, Green Bay would have earned the victory in a hostile environment. I expect the Packers to bounce back well at home next week, as they still have the best coach/quarterback combination in the league.”

Art Aronson – “Don't overreact to how well the Broncos and Chiefs looked. The biggest mistake that bettors can make going into Week 2 is overreacting to how well or poorly a team did in Week 1. Be mindful of the situation and take a good long look at the line before laying down your wager.”

Matt Fargo – “Do not overreact to the amount of low-scoring games in Week 1. The under went 8-4-1 Sunday but that doesn’t mean that offenses won't step it back up in the coming weeks. If anything, these low-scoring games will present some value in Week 2, as we have seen some lower than expected totals come out for Week 2. We can definitely use this to our advantage as the bounce angle is always a very good one when it comes to attacking totals on a week-to-week basis.”

Steve Merril – “The Giants loss. New York outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards, but lost 36-31 because of six turnovers. This is unlikely to happen going forward and New York should still be the team to beat in the NFC East this season.”

Bruce Marshall – “Oakland and Terrelle Pryor. It looks as if Pryor might provide a long-overdue spark for the Raiders offense. But NFL defenses adjust quickly to new flavors like Pryor, and the aerial component of his game still needs refinement. Expect Pryor to be forced to deal from the pocket more often in upcoming weeks, as opponents pay closer attention to his escape lanes.”

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 07:58 AM

LA Syndicate Top MLB Plays

Phillies
Dodgers
Pirates

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 07:59 AM

Chicago Syndicate Top MLB Plays

Cubs/Reds Under 8
Braves
Indians
Tigers

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:00 AM

bookiemonsters

142-96-1 run

18-13-2 run last 33 plays

pod arizona game under 8

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:00 AM

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cashner is 0-2, 2.25 in his last four starts; San Diego scored nine runs total in his last five outings.
-- Teheran is 4-2, 2.80 in his last six starts.
-- Cingrani is 2-1, 2.35 in his last three starts. Cahill is 1-0, 3.38 in his last three.
-- Gee is 4-1, 2.36 in his last six starts. Zimmerman is 2-1, 2.82 in his last three.
-- Vogelsong is 1-1, 3.16 in his last four starts.
-- de la Rosa is 5-0, 3.34 in his last five starts.

-- Perez is 6-0, 2.76 in his last six starts.

-- Buehrle is 6-0, 2.17 in his last nine starts. Williams is 1-1, 3.38 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 4-0, 2.47 in his last seven starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 3.50 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 5-0, 2.32 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Cloyd is 1-3, 5.00 in his last five starts.
-- Jackson is 0-4, 7.22 in his last six starts.
-- Koehler is 0-3, 5.63 in his last six starts.
-- Peralta is 1-3, 4.91 in his last five starts. Miller is 1-2, 5.08 in his last five.
-- Volquez is 1-3, 9.90 in his last five starts.

-- Liriano is 1-2, 6.60 in his last three starts.

-- McCallister is 0-1, 9.35 in his last two starts.
-- Gonzalez is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster has a 7.13 RA in his last three starts, but won last two. Price lost his last two starts, allowing ten runs in 14 IP.
-- Hendriks is 1-1, 6.86 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 2-2, 7.77 in his last four starts. Johnson lost his first '13 start, allowing five runs in six IP.
-- Saunders is 1-3, 8.05 in his last six starts. Lyles is 1-1, 4.66 in his last three.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Cashner 8-21; Cloyd 3-7
-- Jackson 11-27; Cingrani 4-17
-- Zimmerman 5-28; Gee 5-28 (1 of last 13)
-- Teheran 8-26 (1 of last 8); Koehler 6-19
-- Peralta 4-29 (0 of last 16); Miller 7-25
-- Cahill 4-21; Volquez 12-28 (4 of last 5)
-- de la Rosa 5-28 (1 of last 10); Vogelsong 6-15 (1 of last 5)

-- Liriano 5-22; Perez 7-15 (4 of last 8)

-- Williams 6-21 (1 of last 7); Buehrle 6-29 (0 of last 6)
-- Guthrie 8-29; McCallister 5-20 (0 of last 8)
-- Nova 5-16; Gonzalez 6-24 (1 of last 11)
-- Dempster 8-26 (0 of last 5); Price 6-21 (1 of last 9)
-- Porcello 5-26; Johnson 1-1
-- Parker 8-28 (0 of last 7); Hendriks 3-6
-- Lyles 7-22; Saunders 9-29

Totals
-- Seven of last eight San Diego games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Washington games went over.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis games.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Three of last four Texas games went over the total.

-- Seven of last nine Bronx games went over the total. Six of last seven Oriole games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Royal games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Padres won five of their last six games. Philly won its last three games, giving up a total of eight runs.
-- Reds won four of their last five games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- St Louis won four of last five games. Brewers won three of their last four.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.

-- Blue Jays won five of their last six games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Kansas City won six of its last nine games. Indians won five of last six.
-- A's won eight of their last ten games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost four of their last six away games.
-- Braves/Miami both lost four of their last five games.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five games. Arizona is 3-6 in its last nine.
-- Colorado lost six of its last seven games.

-- Pirates lost four of their last five games. Rangers lost six of their last eight.

-- Angels are 3-4 in last seven games, losing last two, scoring 3-3 runs.
-- Bronx lost four of its last five games.
-- Rays lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Minnesota four of its last five games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last 11 games. Detroit lost five of its last six.
-- Mariners lost six of last nine games; Astros lost three of last four

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:00 AM

Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers -122 over Arizona Dbacks
(System Record: 75-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 75-83-2

Soccer Crusher
USA + Mexico OVER 2
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 453-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 453-391-59

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:01 AM

Today's MLB Picks

Pittsburgh at Texas

The Pirates look to build on their 8-0 record in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Pittsburgh is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.019; Philadelphia (Cloyd) 14.402
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 15.015; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 16.484
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-225); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-225); Over

Game 905-906: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 14.593; NY Mets (Gee) 15.403
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Under

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.667; Miami (Koehler) 14.061
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.058; St. Louis (Miller) 16.623
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-185); Under

Game 911-912: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.186; LA Dodgers (Volquez) 14.071
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 913-914: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.257; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 13.309
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Toronto (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 15.337; Toronto (Buehrle) 16.890
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.621; Cleveland (McAllister) 16.964
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 16.522; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.581
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 17.053; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.866
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under

Game 923-924: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.814; White Sox (Johnson) 14.449
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over

Game 925-926: Oakland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.890; Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.949
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Over

Game 927-928: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.308; Seattle (Saunders) 15.833
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Under

Game 929-930: Pittsburgh at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.732; Texas (Perez) 14.766
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:02 AM

MLB teams closing in on their season win totals

Believe it or not, the MLB season is winding down fast. Before you know it, it's going to be the playoffs.

With that said, let's take a look back at the MLB wins totals set by the LVH Superbook and see where clubs stand with just a handful of games remaining.

The Red Sox and Pirates have already gone over their wins total while the White Sox, Angels, Blue Jays and Giants cannot go over their win total.

**Numbers prior to Monday's action

Arizona Diamondbacks (82.5) - The D-backs have 72 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Dodgers (seven games), Rockies (six games), Padres (four games) and Nationals (three games).

Atlanta Braves (87.5) - The Braves have 85 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Marlins (four games), Padres (three games), Nationals (three games), Cubs (three games), Brewers (three games, and Phillies (four games).

Baltimore Orioles (78.5) - The Orioles have 76 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Yankees (four games), Blue Jays (six games), Red Sox (six games) and Rays (four games).

Chicago Cubs (72.5) - The Cubs have 60 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Reds (three games), Pirates (seven games), Brewers (four games), Braves (three games) and Cardinals (three games).

Chicago White Sox (80.5) - The White Sox have 57 wins with 20 games remaining.

Cincinnati Reds (90.5) - The Reds have 82 wins with 18 games remaining. They face the Cubs (three games), Brewers (three games), Astros (three games), Pirates (six games) and Mets (three games).

Cleveland Indians (78) - The Indians have 76 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Royals (six games), White Sox (six games), Astros (four games), and Twins (four games).

Colorado Rockies (71.5) - The Rockies have 66 wins with 18 games remaining. They face the Giants (three games), Diamondbacks (six games), Cardinals (four games), Red Sox (two games) and Dodgers (three games).

Detroit Tigers (93) - The Tigers have 82 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Royals (three games), White Sox (six games), Mariners (four games), Twins (three games) and Marlins (three games).

Miami Marlins (63.5) - The Marlins have 53 wins with 21 games remaining. They face the Braves (four games), Mets (four games), Phillies (six games), Nationals (four games), and Tigers (three games).

Houston Astros (59) - The Astors have 47 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Mariners (three games), Angels (three games), Reds (three games), Indians (four games), Rangers (three games) and Yankees (three games).

Kansas City Royals (79.5) - The Royals have 75 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Indians (six games), Tigers (three games), Rangers (three games), Mariners (three games), and White Sox (four games).

Los Angeles Dodgers (91) - The Dodgers have 83 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Diamondbacks (seven games), Giants (seven games), Padres (three games) and Rockies (three games).

Milwaukee Brewers (79.5) - The Brewers have 62 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Cardinals (six games), Reds (three games), Cubs (four games), Braves (three games) and Mets (four games).

Minnesota Twins (68.5) - The Twins have 61 wins with with 21 games remaining. They face the Angels (one game), A's (seven games), Rays (three games), White Sox (three games), Tigers (three games) and Indians (four games).

New York Mets (74) - The Mets have 64 wins with 21 games remaining. They face the Nationals (four games), Marlins (four games), Giants (three games), Phillies (three games), Reds (three games) and Brewers (four games).

New York Yankees (84.5) - The Yankees have 76 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Orioles (four games), Red Sox (three games), Blue Jays (three games), Giants (three games), Rays (three games) and Astros (three games).

Oakland A's (84.5) - The A's have 83 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Twins (seven games), Rangers (three games), Angels (six games) and Mariners (three games).

Philadelphia Phillies (83.5) - The Phillies have 66 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Padres (three games), Nationals (three games), Marlins (six games), Mets (three games) and Braves (four games).

San Diego Padres (74) - The Padres have 65 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Phillies (three games), Braves (three games), Pirates (four games), Dodgers (three games), Diamondbacks (four games) and Giants (three games).

Seattle Mariners (78) - The Mariners have 65 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Astros (three games), Cardinals (three games), Tigers (four games), Angels (three games), Royals (three games) and A's (three games).

St. Louis Cardinals (86) - The Cardinals have 83 wins with 19 games remaining. They face the Brewers (six games), Mariners (three games), Rockies (four games), Nationals (three games) and Cubs (three games).

Tampa Bay Rays (87) - The Rays have 78 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Red Sox (three games), Twins (three games), Rangers (four games), Orioles (four games), Yankees (three games) and Blue Jays (three games).

Texas Rangers (86.5) - The Rangers have 81 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Pirates (three games), A's (three games), Rays (four games), Royals (three games), Astros (three games) and Angels (four games).

Washington Natioanls (92) - The Nationals have 73 wins with 20 games remaining. They face the Mets (four games), Phillies (three games), Braves (three games), Marlins (four games), Cardinals (three games) and Diamondbacks (three games).

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:03 AM

WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at New York

The Liberty look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against Phoenix. New York is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Phoenix at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.982; New York 108.278
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.664; Indiana 116.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6); Under

Game 655-656: Minnesota at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.807; Seattle 115.798
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+8 1/2); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:05 AM

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1093-823(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES: Blue Jays -145

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:06 AM

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

DBacks +110

Braves -1.5 -115

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 08:08 AM

Umpire UNDER streakers 85-33-8 (72%)

Joyce 9-0-2 L11 (BAL/NYY)

might have more later.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 09:38 AM

Cappers Access

Reds(RL) -1.5(-115)
Rangers -130

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 10:52 AM

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX

Play On - Road teams (DETROIT) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season, in the second half of the season
260-209 over the last 5 seasons. ( 55.4% 88.6 units )
98-97 this year. ( 50.3% 12.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at MINNESOTA

OAKLAND is 35-13 (+25.0 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was: OAKLAND (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.2)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 10:52 AM

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at SEATTLE

Play On - Home teams (SEATTLE) off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at NEW YORK

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread
36-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.6% 0.0 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at INDIANA

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after scoring 75 points or more
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 10:52 AM

CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB Perfect Play

Money Line: Kansas City+110

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 10:53 AM

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 8 - Phillies/Padres

50* Blue Jays -145

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 10:53 AM

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won both plays on Monday one in MLB the Dodgers -$160/Diamondbacks and one in tennis Rafael Nadal -$155/Novak Djokovic.

For Tuesday "Mr Chalk" likes the "Chalkest" game on the board the Reds -$210/Cubs.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-0 +$150 for the week and 93-56 +$727 for the 2013 MLB season.

Ben lee has two leans but nothing offical Brazil -$207/Portugal and Spain -$229/Chile.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:00 PM

Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) Cleveland Indians ML -125

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:44 PM

Umpire UNDER streakers

Joyce 9-0-2 L11 (BAL/NYY)

Porter 10-3 L13 (SF/COL)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:45 PM

The Winners Circle

TUESDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Chicago Cubs MLB TOP PLAY

Chicago has lost 32 of the last 45 games when playing on a Tuesday and they have also lost 39 of the last 60 games vs. division opponents. Chicago has lost 49 of the last 74 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 33 of the last 45 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game.

5* Play Seattle -145 over Houston MLB TOP PLAY

5* Play Washington -125 over NY Mets MLB TOP PLAY

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:45 PM

Power Play Wins

Tampa Bay (-135)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:47 PM

Johnny Serrone

Blue Jays

Yankees/Orioles Under 9

Red Sox

golden contender

09-10-2013, 01:50 PM

Tuesday card has 5* National League Total of the Month from a perfect totals system + a 28-1 MLB Dominator Angle. MLB totals cashing 78% the last 9 weeks. Free MLB system Play below.

On Tuesday the Free MLB Road warrior System Play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 923 at 8:10 eastern. Detroit qualifies in a solid league Wide system we use that has won 22 of 28 times and plays on certain road favorites off a road favored loss if they scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a home dog win and scored 5+ runs with 1 or less errors. Detroit has been solid this year vs losing teams and they will look to bounce back here against a Chicago team that has lost 7 of 9 this month. C. Porcello makes the start for Detroit and he has won all 3 starts vs Chicago this season allowing just 4 runs in 20 innings. He will oppose E. Johnson making his 2nd start for Chicago and he may have a tough time with the vaunted Detroit lineup. Look for Detroit to even things up here tonight. On Tuesday we have 2 solid MLB Plays one is the 5* National League Total of the month from an undefeated totals system. MLB Totals have stayed on a tear cashing 78% the past 9 weeks. We also have a team that has a 28-1 Dominator Angle that applies. Get both and Jump on. Congrats to those with us last night for another 5* Top play winner in the NFL. Jump on now and cash out on Tuesday night. For the free M LB System Play take Detroit. GC

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:54 PM

Seven fastest NFL offenses go 6-1 over/under in Week 1

The Philadelphia Eagles successfully debuted their high-octane offense under new head coach Chip Kelly, taking a 33-27 win over the Washington Redskins Monday night.

The Eagles ran 77 plays on offense and piled up 263 rushing yards on 49 carries – the most rushing attempts of any team in Week 1. That quick pace helped top the 52-point total but didn’t set the bar for up-tempo offense during the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots and their hurry-up offense remains the pace setter in the NFL, running 89 plays in a 23-21 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were tops in the league in offensive plays per game in 2012, averaging 74.3, and finished as the best over bet in football at 11-5 O/U.

The Baltimore Ravens were second in plays per game during Week 1 with 87 plays in a 49-27 loss to the Denver Broncos Thursday. The Detroit Lions tied the Eagles for the third-fastest pace with 77 plays, beating the Minnesota Vikings 34-24 Sunday.

Of the top seven teams that ran the most offensive plays in Week 1, all but one – New England – played over the total. Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston and Dallas all topped their respective game’s number.

Here’s a look at the totals for games involving those seven teams in Week 2:

New York Jets at New England Patriots (44)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (43.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (49.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (44)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (44.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (46.5)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:55 PM

River City Sharps

3 UNITS Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8 -115

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:56 PM

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston +127 (moneyline) at 5Dimes

Boston will be happy to get the services of Clay Buchholz back, as he opened the season at 9-0. He will square off against another heavyweight in David Price. The difference is not found on the mound in this matchup, it is found in the offense. Boston has the bats on fire right now, as they have scored 73 runs in their last nine games, or over 8 per contest. Tampa Bay has really gone ice cold on offense, where they have topped the 4-run mark just two times in their last 16 games, and have plated 3 or less in 10 of their last 15. Boston has been delivering against left-handed pitching where they are a perfect 8-0 in their last eight against them. The BoSox own a 29-11 record behind Buchholz when he starts game 1 of a series, and the Rays' dormant bats have led them to five straight losses vs. a winning team. Play on Boston.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 01:57 PM

JOE WIZ

Free Play Over 7.5 runs Houston and Seattle.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 02:06 PM

Playersbet
2* Yanks/Bal Under 9
KC Royals TT 4 over

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:14 PM

FEZZIK MIAMI +3 (Sunday)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:15 PM

Todays Best Bets

3* - [919] New York Yankees - UNDER 9 -125 vs Baltimore Orioles

5* - [916] Toronto Blue Jays -138 vs Los Angeles Angels

3* - [921] Boston Red Sox +127 vs Tampa Bay Rays

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:15 PM

Bob Balfe

NEW YORK YANKEES -105
(Nova/Gonzalez)

These teams are as evenly matched in just about every category this year, but the Orioles have not put up much offense as of late and I still question them in one run close games. This is a playoff type game and it always seems like the Yankees are prepared for these situations time and time again. New York has been hitting the ball well and should come away with the win behind Nova. Take the Yankees

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:16 PM

Winning Angle Sports

Cincinnati -220 over Chicago Cubs TOP PLAY
St. Louis -180 over Milwaukee
Oakland -160 over Minnesota

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:16 PM

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Texas Rangers

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:17 PM

Hondo

pit (mlb)
oak (mlb)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 03:19 PM

NFL line watch: Time to venture on Vikings is now
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Chicago Bears

If you're a Minnesota fan, you may want to jump on the seven points, which is still currently available at a few books. We can already see this line starting to drop across the board.

Last year the Vikings and Bears split, with each team winning on home turf. The Vikes held a 14-13 lead at half time over the Lions in Week 1, but couldn’t match pace in the second half, succumbing 34-24 in the end. Chicago would earn a 24-21 victory over the visiting Bengals last week, making Marc Trestman a winner in his coaching debut.

Simply put, the Vikings are better than what we saw in Week 1, while we should be cautious in "crowning" the Bears quite yet.

Chicago QB Jay Cutler had just 242 yards behind a line with four new starters. Stupid penalties and turnovers would kill the Bengals, as they all but handed the game to the Bears (kicker Robbie Gould also had to nail a franchise record 58-yard FG).

Chicago made big changes on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason (Brian Urlacher is now in the reporting booth) and as the week goes on and the public remembers this, expect this line to continue to drop.

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Pick)

If you're a Cardinals backer, you may want to wait a few days before jumping on board. Arizona actually opened as 1-point favorite, but the public has quickly jumped on the "sexier" team and we're now starting to see the line swing dramatically the other way.

The Cardinals would lose a heart-breaking 27-24 game to the Rams in Week 1 as St. Louis would hit the go-ahead FG in the closing seconds. The offense had many questions coming into the season, but overall veteran Carson Palmer looked solid, hitting WR Larry Fitzgerald for two TD strikes. Arizona also got a defensive score.

Can the Lions remain focused after their big opening win over division rival Minnesota? If history is any precedence, then the answer is a resounding no.

Detroit was just 2-6 SU away from home last year, with victories over only the lowly Jaguars and the discombobulated Eagles (3-5 ATS). Last week, it benefited greatly from three INTs and two fumble recoveries. The Lions now face an experienced QB in Palmer, who in the end was 26 of 40 for 327 yards last week.

And remember, when Detroit came to Arizona last season it was destroyed 38-10.

Total to watch

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (45)

Division rivalries are always the most heated and that will definitely be the case between these two powerhouses.

It was only two years ago that the NFC West was considered the laughing stock of the league. After Week 1 this season, the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks are all 1-0.

These teams played twice last year. San Francisco won 13-6 at home on October 18, before Seattle destroyed the 49ers, 42-13, late in the season in front of the home town crowd.

Seattle was punched in the mouth last week, but regained its composure in the later rounds to secure a 12-7 win over the Panthers. The 49ers won a shootout over the visiting Packers 34-28.

This total is already dropping, though, as the public expects an all out defensive battle on the national stage Sunday night. If you're playing the Under, you may want to jump on this one now.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:27 PM

Bookieshunter

3* Oak

2* Tex
2* U9 Nyy/Bal

1* U7 Col/SF

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:27 PM

TMC Sports Advisors

A's -1.5 runs
Under Yankees
Reds
Braves

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:27 PM

Sports Junkie

MLB: Arizona vs Dodgers (10:10 pm est.)

$500 MLB Play: Arizona ML +105 (Bovada) vs Dodgers

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:28 PM

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/10
Texas Rangers -130 over the Pittsburgh Pirates

(System Record: 136-5, Won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 136-119

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:30 PM

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Orioles on Monday and likes the Rays on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1273 sirignanos.

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:37 PM

TKWINS

6 Units Hou Astros J Lyles -r V/s SEA MARINERS J SAUNDERS-L un8 (+105)

3 Units Ari D`backs T Cahill -r V/s LA DODGERS E VOLQUEZ -R un8 (-125)

3 Units Col Rockies De La Rosa-l V/s SFO GIANTS VOGELSONG -R un7(-110)

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:38 PM

SB Professor MLB Picks 9/10

906. New York Mets +124
914. San Francisco Giants -110
922. Tampa Bay Rays -145
930. Texas Rangers -124

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:39 PM

Marco D'Angelo MLB Money Line Tue, 09/10/13 - 7:10 PM
dime bet - 922 TAM (-140) vs 921 BOS

PLAY: TAMPA BAY
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY

Coming off the big series with the Yankees and having Bucholz making first start in over 3 months puts me on Tampa. Bucholz will be on a strict pitch count and was not impressive in his rehab start. Have to back David Price and the Rays who have been horrible when traveling to the West Coast but are back at home and had yesterday off to regroup. Tampa Bay wins this 5-3.

TAKE TAMPA BAY

Can'tPickAWinner

09-10-2013, 05:41 PM

ANDRE GOMES

Two Plays for today's International Soccer Games!!

Soccer World Cup Qualifying - Czech Republic @ Italy
Italy could qualify for the World Cup tonight if they win this match. They will also play their first match at the new Juventus Stadium in Turin. Italy will be trying to be the first European team to qualify for the 2014 World Cup and they will debut the new Juventus stadium, so the environment for tonight's game will be huge. Italy will see Mario Balotelli coming back to the lineup tonight, after being suspended for the team's last match against Bulgaria.

The Italian squad will face a Czech Republic team that is in complete decline on this stage of the qualifying round, especially after a shocking home loss against Armenia last Friday. Prior to that, they had tied 1-1 against Hungary in a friendly game and they had also tied at home against Italy, in a game where Mario Balotelli was sent off at the 70th minute. The difference of level between these two teams is huge right now and with Italy having such a great spot helping them as well, I'll be taking the Italian squad in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Italy ML @ -143 / 1.70

Soccer International Friendly - Brazil vs Portugal (Played in the United States)

DOUBLE DIME PLAY
There is a huge difference of quality between these two teams, even though the FIFA Rankings currently show that Portugal is #7 and Brazil is #9. Tonight's game should be an easy one for Brazil, considering Portugal's terrible spot. Brazil is coming from a friendly home game last weekend, where they dominated Australia by 6-0, with six substitutions throughout the match. On the other side, Portugal had a brutal official game for the World Cup qualifying at Northern Ireland, where on a match played under terrible weather (lots of rain), Portugal was losing the match at one point and they were also down to 10 men vs 11 men for 20 minutes. To make things worse for them, Portugal had to travel to the US, while Brazil had a shorter trip and won't be affected by the timezone changes.

Portugal's superstar Cristiano Ronaldo won't play tonight and this is a huge blow for the Portuguese team. Portugal is used to be a squad with some top class players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Pepe, Nani, Joao Moutinho and Fabio Coentrao plus a mixture of players that are far from being elite contributors. The problem is that not only Ronaldo is out for tonight, as Joao Moutinho, Nani and Fabio Coentrao are completely out of shape for several reasons. Portugal's head coach Paulo Bento will have to make some changes in the lineup in comparison to the team that started against Northern Ireland, but Portugal lacks the depth to be competitive against a top team like Brazil in such conditions.

As Brazil will host the World Cup, they are already qualified and so, they are playing several Friendly games to prepare for the competition. Therefore, motivation lacks in the Brazilian squad at times. They even lost against Switzerland in August, but that won't certainly happen tonight against a natural rival like Portugal. Brazil's head coach Luiz Felipe Scolari is a former coach of Portugal and so, the Brazilian players will be fired up tonight.

Brazil is likely to start the following lineup tonight: Julio César; Maicon, Thiago Silva, David Luiz and Maxwell; Luis Gustavo, Paulinho and Ramires; Oscar, Neymar and Jô. This is basically Brazil's A team and therefore, with them being focused against a Portuguese team missing their best player and with other important players being out of form, I expect Brazil to easily beat Portugal tonight, who will be on a complete letdown spot tonight, after a very tough and important win last Friday at Northern Ireland. I'm taking Brazil tonight on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Brazil (-0.75) @ -126 / 1.79