9-12-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New York Jets at New England Patriots
By Nick Parsons
Sportspic

Imagine the New York Jets making their annual Foxboro invasion of Foxboro with a 1-0 record and taking on the 0-1 New England Patriots?

Only a New England field goal in the final seconds in Buffalo separated that scenario from reality, and when the teams take the field at Gillette Stadium in Thursday night, both will be 1-0 on the year.

But those 1-0's could just as easily be 0-1's, since both the Patriots and Jets are thanking their lucky stars after each executed a "Great Escape" in their respective openers on Sunday.

New England was headed for its first loss to Buffalo since seemingly the Woodrow Wilson Administration, after being victimized by a Tom Brady interception and a few fumbles. The Bills held a 21-20 lead, and were actually starting to believe in miracles when the Pats got control of the ball in the final two minutes. Brady and the ailing Danny Amendola decided that enough was enough, marching New England into field goal position for the dagger that just about everyone, except the Bills and their fans, knew was coming.

A win is a win is a win, but no one in the Pats entourage was smiling as they left Buffalo to prepare for the Jets.

Maybe watching the Jets-Buccaneers game film perked up Bill Belichick a bit, because the Jets were hardly a reincarnation of the mid-1980s Chicago Bears.

Rex Ryan was smiling and doling out praise like candy on Halloween after the NYJ’s 18-17 victory over the Buccaneers. Of course, he was conveniently forgetting to mention that Nick Folk would not have been able to kick the 48-yard game-winner if Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David had not had a brain fart by committing a personal foul to put the Jets in field goal range. Also, Jets’ running backs only rushed for 43 yards in 23 carries. Not good at all.

Geno Smith (24 for 38 and 256 yards) probably will keep the starting job for New York until he screws up, which will be Thursday night around 8:30 p.m. Eastern time if the oddsmakers are correct. New England opened at -12.5 and the line almost immediately jumped to 13. Even at nearly two TDs, the early money has been on the Pats to cruise at home and beat the Jets like a drum – the same way they did in their previous meeting last Thanksgiving in a 49-19 rout.

Bettors should be wary of big numbers with New England this season. It was clear from the Buffalo game that the kid receivers on the Patriots are nowhere near in sync with Brady yet. Three rookies were targeted 17 times, with only four catches on the day. With Amendola still not at 100 percent, covering 13 could be as problematic as going over the 44 total.

This is an interesting game on the radar; just don’t expect any fireworks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday Night Football betting: Jets at Patriots

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5, 66.5)

Troy boasts one of the best non-BCS QBs in Corey Robinson. The senior has passed for nearly 500 yards over his first two games, connecting on five touchdowns, including four in the Trojans’ 66-3 blowout of Savannah State last weekend. Senior transfer Wilson Van Hooser is expected to be in the receiving corps and returning kicks after missing Week 2 with a concussion.

Arkansas State was mauled by Auburn, 38-9, last weekend but takes on a familiar foe in Troy Thursday. The Red Wolves have defeated the Trojans SU and ATS the past two seasons, covering as favorites in each of those games. Arkansas State and QB Adam Kennedy were able to move the ball against Auburn but got shut down in the red zone.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, 17 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds west 4 mph.

LINE: Arkansas State opened at -10.5 and has been bet down to -7.5. The total is at 66.5.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Trojans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.

Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-7.5, 57)

Tulane couldn’t complete the comeback against South Alabama in Week 2 and was disappointed with its defensive performance, giving up 31 points in the first half. Head coach Curtis Johnson has shuffled his stop unit in hopes of sparking a sense of urgency versus Louisiana Tech. He is also looking to run the ball more after picking up only 45 yards on 27 carries last week.

The Bulldogs took a licking from North Carolina State in the season opener and picked up an easy victory over FCS Lamar in Week 2. Louisiana Tech welcomed RB Tevin King back after he missed last season with a knee injury, rushing for 182 yards last week. Fellow RB Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1,194 yards and 27 TDs last year, injured his knee versus Lamar and could be a game-time decision Thursday.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 90s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing north at 1 mph.

LINE: La. Tech opened at -7.5. The total has moved from 57 to 57.5.

TRENDS:

* Green Wave are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in September.
* Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 21-8 in Bulldogs’ last 29 home games.

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3, 63)

Trevone Boykin replaced Casey Pachall as the starter last season and did just enough to get Texas Christian into a bowl game. He’ll take over at quarterback again Thursday, when the 24th-ranked Horned Frogs open Big 12 play on the road against Texas Tech. Boykin went 3-6 as a freshman in 2012 after Pachall left the team to seek treatment for substance abuse addiction and replaced him again Saturday, when Pachall broke his left arm in a win over Southeastern Louisiana.

Pachall is expected to miss eight weeks, but Boykin threw for a career-high 332 yards and four touchdowns in his third career start against the Red Raiders, who went on the road to upset TCU 56-53 in triple overtime last season. The win turned out to be a high point for Texas Tech, which went on to lose four of its last five regular-season games. The Red Raiders have opened 2-0 for the ninth straight year, averaging 51 points behind walk-on freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds blowing SE at 9 mph.

LINE: TCU opened as a 3-point favorite and is as high as -3.5 at some books. Total has moved from 62 to 63.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
* Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Over is 6-0 in Red Raiders' last six games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tale of the tape: New York Jets at New England Patriots

There is no love lost between the Jets and Patriots, even if the two rivals are on opposite ends of the AFC spectrum. We break down Thursday’s AFC North grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Even though the Patriots lost plenty of weapons this offseason, are still without TE Rob Gronkowski and just lost WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen to injuries, they’re scoring attack is still light years ahead of the Jets. Tom Brady may have found Wes Welker 2.0 in WR Julian Edelman.

Geno Smith was a pleasant surprise for Jets faithful against the Bucs in Week 1. The rookie completed 63.2 percent of his passes and did a little damage on the ground as well. In fact, he pretty much did all the heavy lifting for New York’s ground game, which rushed for only 43 yards outside of Smith’s contributions.

Edge: New England

Defense

New York’s defense was opportunistic in the win over Tampa Bay, picking off one pass and recovering one of its three forced fumbles. It will need to generate those turnovers if its wants a shot at upsetting the mighty Pats on the road. New England is minus its top TE weapons and Jet CB Antonio Cromartie should be able to limit Edelman.

New England faces its second straight rookie passer after giving up two TDs to Bills first-year QB E.J. Manuel in Week 1’s 23-21 nail-biter over Buffalo. The Patriots did limit the Bills to just 150 yards passing but couldn't come up big in the red zone and failed to register a single sack.

Edge: New York

Special teams

The real edge in this matchup is New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts, including the game winner with five seconds left, versus Buffalo.

New York kicker Nick Folk was just as accurate, going 3 for 3 versus the Bucs. However, Folk has been shaky at times and connected on only 77.8 percent of his FGs last season. He did go 4 for 4 his last time playing at Gillette Stadium.

Edge: New England

Notable quotable

"Rex (Ryan) is to a degree a game-plan coach. He defends you the way that they feel they need to do that. How they defend you and how they defended the team before or the opponent after is all based on how he sees the matchups and what he wants to do. There's certainly going to be some in-game adjustments that we'll have to make, I'm sure, in all three phases of the game based on how they specifically want to try to attack us." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

"I'm not saying I'm guaranteeing it, but I'm saying if we do our jobs and follow our game plan, I don't see why we wouldn't be 2-0. We had a good game plan in the first game and we won, so why wouldn't I feel that way for this game? I'm here with these guys every day and I see all the hard work that myself and everybody else on this team is putting in. We can be a dominant defense." – Jets DE Mo Wilkerson.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Four MLB ace pitchers running out of gas in September

As the MLB season winds down, several marquee pitchers are struggling to recapture their form from earlier in the year. Whether it's fatigue, injury or other factors, these hurlers are getting hit down the stretch and it has often meant bad news for bettors who put their faith in them.

Here are four ace pitchers who have returned negative value over the past few weeks. Money values for $100 a game.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (-$500 over his last five starts)

Darvish was headed for a Cy Young season but has fallen off the rails over his previous five outings, going 0-3 with 16 walks and five home runs allowed over that stretch. While his innings count isn't exactly out of hand - 186 2-3 entering Friday, 4 2-3 innings behind his total from his rookie 2012 campaign - the 27-year-old right-hander has battled persistent leg cramps that may be a byproduct of making half his starts in the jarring heat of Arlington.

Darvish returns to action when the Rangers host the Oakland Athletics Saturday.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (-$300 over his last three starts)

Corbin was the darling of moneyline bettors everywhere when he opened the season 12-1, but has had a miserable three-start stretch that has seen him give up 18 runs over his last 18 1-3 innings. Corbin's workload is likely the biggest factor here. The 24-year-old reliever-turned-starter threw just 186 1-3 innings all of last season and is already up to 190 2-3 with three starts remaining. Arizona may be wise to limit Corbin's innings from here on in or shut him down entirely.

Corbin takes the mound when the Diamondbacks tangle with the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday night.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (-$300 over his last three starts)

Price has wilted just when the Rays have needed him the most. The 28-year-old left-hander has coughed up 12 runs over 22 innings during his three-game losing skid, while getting just five combined runs of support in that span. The innings count isn't the issue with Price. He's at 159 1-3 for the season, well below his career high of 224 1-3. But at 8-8 with a 3.45 ERA - nearly a full run below last year's mark - 2013 just hasn't been Price's season.

Price looks to end his losing streak when the Rays visit the Minnesota Twins Sunday.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (-$147.37 over his last three starts)

Scherzer may still be at the front of the line in the American League Cy Young Award race, but the hard-throwing right-hander isn't helping his cause down the stretch. Scherzer has been decidedly subpar over his last three outings, surrendering 13 runs over 16 innings while losing back-to-back starts. At 194 1-3 innings - just 1 1-3 shy of his career high - and with three regular-season starts and playoff action remaining, Scherzer's best work of 2013 may be far behind him.

Scherzer gets the call Sunday, taking his third shot at win No. 20 against the visiting Kansas City Royals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's American League games:

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (+147, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins left-hander Scott Diamond was tagged for seven runs over three innings in his last start against Kansas City, dropping him to 0-4 over his previous seven outings.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota OF Josh Willingham has two home runs in three career at-bats against Athletics starter A.J. Griffin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Twins are 1-11 in Diamond's last 12 starts against teams with winning records.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-165, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles left-hander Wei-Yin Chen is 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Yankees roster have six home runs in 104 combined at-bats against Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in Chen's last nine home starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-102, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Angels right-hander Garrett Richards has surrendered just two earned runs over 12 combined innings in back-to-back victories over the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays 1B Edwin Encarnacion is 3-for-8 with a homer in his career against Richards.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels are 11-1 in their last 12 Thursday games.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (+110, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy is 4-5 with a 5.14 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Boston DH David Ortiz is a career .364 hitter with two home runs in 22 at-bats against Tampa Bay starter Jeremy Hellickson.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Tampa Bay is 7-1 in Hellickson's last eight home starts against teams with winning records.

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (+120, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: White Sox right-hander John Danks has dropped back-to-back starts, surrendering 10 runs over 10 1/3 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland OF Michael Brantley has just two singles in 12 career at-bats against Danks.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians have won the last eight head-to-head meetings.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 4:40 p.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's National League games:

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+135, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Nate Eovaldi silenced the Braves in their last encounter Sept. 1, limiting them to seven hits and a pair of walks over eight shutout innings in a 7-0 win.

Cold batting stat: Braves 1B Freddie Freeman is just 3-for-15 lifetime against Eovaldi.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s, but with a 50 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 3-0-2 in Eovaldi's last five starts against the Braves.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+127, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark has limited opponents to a .186 batting average and has yet to yield a homer in 28 2/3 major-league innings.

Hot batting stat: Washington 3B Ryan Zimmerman has five hits, including a pair of doubles, in 13 career at-bats against Mets starter Aaron Harang.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Nationals are 21-5 in their last 26 Thursday games.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-166, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates left-hander Jeff Locke is 0-3 in his last eight starts while failing to last more than 5 2/3 innings in his previous seven outings.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting a combined .212 in 33 at-bats against Locke.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with and 80 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Pittsburgh.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-112, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Padres right-hander Tyson Ross has been sensational of late, allowing just one run while striking out 15 in 12 combined innings over his last two starts.

Cold batting stat: San Diego 3B Chase Headley is a .176 career hitter with seven strikeouts over 17 at-bats against Phillies starter Roy Halladay.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 55 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-1 in Halladay's last eight home starts.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-164, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals righty Joe Kelly is 7-0 with a 1.70 ERA and just two home runs allowed in nine starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Brewers OF Norichika Aoki is 5-for-9 with two doubles and a walk in his career against Kelly.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-0 in umpire Chris Guccione's last six games behind home plate.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke has been one of the top second-half pitchers in the majors, going 6-1 with a 1.94 ERA in 10 starts since the break.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles OF Andre Ethier has dominated his matchup with San Francisco starter Matt Cain, batting .446 in 65 career at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 4:15 p.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BMW Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

Two down and two to go. Henrik Stenson won by two shots over Steve Stricker at the Deutsche Bank Championship as he carded a final-round 66 to move into first place in the FedEx Cup standings.

This week the Top 70 players in the standings head west to Lake Forest, Illinois for the BMW Championship taking place at Conway Farms Golf Club. The Top 30 in the standings after this week head to the Tour Championship next week, the final leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Tiger Woods fell into second place but he is just 14 points behind Stenson. The Top 10 is loaded with big names including Adam Scott (third), Matt Kuchar (fourth), Phil Mickelson (sixth), Justin Rose (seventh), Steve Stricker (eighth) and Brandt Snedeker (ninth).

There are also some big names outside the Top 30 that need a big week to get to the Tour Championship including Nick Watney (34th), Rickie Fowler (36th), Bubba Watson (40th), Rory McIlroy (41st) and Luke Donald (54th).

This is the first time Conway Farms has hosted a PGA Tour event. Designed and built in 1991 by Tom Fazio, it is relatively new to the scene and will be new for most players. It is a Par 71, 7,216-yard layout which resembles Shinnecock Hills, the links-style golf club on Long Island, and it was set up that way by Fazio through advice from one of the founders Gus Hart. Its main defense is the wind along with fairways lined with fescue and heather as well as fairly small greens.

The favorite this week is of course Woods (+500) while defending champion Rory McIlroy (+2,000) is still getting short odds despite a lackluster year as well as his BWM Championship coming on a different course.

With this being a new course to nearly every player in the field, it sets up as a pretty wide open tournament with a lot of the players outside the Top 30 likely to play more aggressive this week to move up in the standings. Expect more conservative play from the higher-ranked players.

Justin Rose (+2,000) has looked sharp through the first two playoff events, finishing T2 at The Barclays and finished T16 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. He is currently seventh in the FedEx Cup standings, so a big week here gets him into the Top 5 where he could control his own destiny next week. While this is a different venue, he won the BMW Championship in 2011, so he knows how to win late.

Luke Donald (+2,500) has had a pretty disappointing season by his standards. He has more missed cuts (5) than he has Top 10s (4) and has dropped to 13th in the world. He needs to make a move as he is 54th in the FedEx standings but if there’s a place to do so, this is it. He has been a member at Conway Farms for 10 years so if anyone has a course knowledge edge, it’s Donald.

Why stop now. Graham DeLaet (+3,000) once again nearly won his first PGA Tour event, finishing solo third at the Deutsche Bank Championship which came after a T2 at The Barclays. I mentioned possible conservative play from the higher-ranked players. DeLaet is now fifth in the standings, but he’s playing exceptional. He’s ranked first in total driving and third in green hits.

Hunter Mahan (+3,000) has put together a very solid season without having won. He has four Top 10s and was in position for a win in Canada before needing to withdraw because of the birth of his child. He’s coming off a T13 in Boston, which moved him to 18th in the FedEx Cup standings. He’s the only player in the history of the playoffs to play in every event, so that says something about playoff pressure.

We will use Bill Haas (+5,000) as a long shot this week. He knows the pressures of the playoffs and has succeeded, winning the 2011 FedEx Cup Championship. In 23 events this year, he has nine Top 10s which leads the tour. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship but the week off is to his benefit. He already has a win at the AT&T National this year.

Recommended tournament win five Pack at the BMW Championship (all for one unit)

Justin Rose (+2,000)
Luke Donald (+2,500)
Graham DeLaet (+3,000)
Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
Bill Haas (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 33 events: -50.4 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

Troy +10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Injury-riddled Patriots favored big vs. Jets Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New England -12, Total: 43.5

The banged-up Patriots seek a fifth straight series win over the rival Jets when the AFC East foes collide on Thursday night.

Although New England won a 49-19 laugher in their most recent meeting last Nov. 22, New York covered in Foxboro one month prior to that, falling 29-26 in overtime. Speaking of close games, both teams needed a field goal in the closing seconds in Week 1 to pull out nail-biting victories. Jets rookie QB Geno Smith piled up 303 total yards in an 18-17 home win versus the Bucs, while Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns to lead his club to a 23-21 win in Buffalo. Both scores went to WR Julian Edelman, who might have to play an even bigger role on Thursday with RB Shane Vereen (wrist) out, and both TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and WR Danny Amendola (groin) doubtful. Although the Jets are 44-27 ATS (62%) on the road in divisional play since 1992, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS when coming off a win against an AFC foe in the past three seasons.

The Jets allowed Geno Smith to make his NFL debut last week, and it paid off big-time, as Smith completed 24-of-38 passes for 256 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he did absorb five sacks. He was also the only competent rusher on his team, gaining 47 yards on six carries while the unimpressive RB duo of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory combined for 44 yards on 22 carries. Despite this poor ground game, the Jets still won the time of possession battle 32:22 to 27:38. Smith's favorite target through the air was newly-signed TE Kellen Winslow, a former Patriots player. The tight end caught seven of his eight targets for 79 yards and the team's lone touchdown. New York's defense did a great job stuffing the run and star RB Doug Martin, holding the second-year pro to 65 yards on 24 carries (2.7 YPC). That was something they did not do well against the Patriots last year, allowing them to total 283 rushing yards in the two defeats.

Although Patriots still remember the home playoff loss to the Jets three years ago when they were the top seed in the AFC, Tom Brady has dominated this series in the regular season recently, throwing for 312 yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just one pick while leading his team to five straight wins over the hated rival. While his receiving corps is in disarray other than Edelman who caught 7-of-9 targets from Brady last week, New England's running game is not in tip-top shape either. With Vereen out, the team will turn back to Stevan Ridley who was benched for the majority of the season opener after his second-quarter fumble put the Bills on the scoreboard. Ridley certainly has the ability to overcome this mistake, especially against a Jets team that allowed him to chew up 162 yards on the ground and a touchdown over two meetings last year. With RB Brandon Bolden questionable with a knee injury, the only other option to run the football is LeGarrette Blount who gained a paltry 15 yards on seven carries on Sunday. Newly re-signed RB/KR Leon Washington might also get some reps on third down. The Patriots are hoping to dominate time of possession like they did against the Bills on Sunday, keeping the ball for 37:43 compared to 22:17 for Buffalo. New England will also look to pressure Smith often and create turnovers like they did last year when they tallied seven total takeaways in the two wins over the Jets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pachall-less TCU travels to Texas Tech Thursday
by Nick Bracken

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -3, Total: 62

Two Texas teams, both with quarterback questions, square off Thursday night in Lubbock, when No. 24 TCU arrives without its starting quarterback to take on high-powered Texas Tech.

The Horned Frogs looked poised to be a force in the Big 12, but senior quarterback QB Casey Pachall broke his non-throwing arm and will be out up to eight weeks. Trevone Boykin who filled in for Pachall last season when he went to rehab, takes over again. Boykin has already faced the Red Raiders, throwing four touchdown passes in last year's crazy 56-53, triple-overtime win for TTU. Texas Tech comes into the game with slightly more appealing quarterback questions. Although the Red Raiders hope to have back sophomore QB Michael Brewer who has been out with a back injury, they don't have to force the issue thanks to Baker Mayfield, an emerging freshman walk-on. Mayfield has tossed seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two collegiate games. Although TCU is 0-2 ATS this year, that's actually good news considering Gary Patterson is still coaching. Patterson is 18-4 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games ATS, and 40-26 ATS after losing against the spread. Texas Tech will try to pressure Boykin and force the often-flustered sophomore to turn the ball over. Since 1992, TCU is a dreadful 24-44 ATS when they commit two turnovers. The Red Raiders have had success in the past against TCU at home going 3-0 ATS & SU since 1993, including a 70-35 beatdown in the last Lubbock meeting in 2004.

Boykin will need to do a better job than last year when he completed just 57% of his passes with 15 TD and 10 INT, but he did shine against Texas Tech by completing 26-of-44 passes for 332 yards (7.5 YPA), 4 TD and 2 INT. The Horned Frogs do get an added element of a versatile quarterback that Pachall did not really provide for his team. TCU hasn't been quite as dynamic as some would have thought and have started 0-2 ATS, which includes a 21-point win against Southeast Louisiana as 43-point favorite. This trend goes back over the past three years where the Horned Frogs are 10-17 ATS overall and 6-13 ATS as a favorite. TCU will also need to get a running game going, which has been lackluster thus far this year (141 rush YPG). Sophomore B.J. Catalon and senior Waymon James are the two leading rushers for the Horned Frogs but have just 183 yards combined thus far. Catalon did run well against the Red Raiders last year though, piling up 72 yards on 12 carries (6.0 YPC).

To complement the seven touchdowns thrown by Mayfield, the frosh has thrown for 780 yards, which is good for third in the FBS. Those numbers really jump out, but the critics will bring up that these gaudy stats have come against some lesser opponents being SMU and Stephen F. Austin. Mayfield's favorite target has been the explosive Eric Ward. Ward has hauled in 16 catches for 186 yards and has now elapsed over 2,000 yards over his career. In last year's triple-overtime win over TCU, Ward caught six passes for 61 yards and three touchdowns. Unlike their foes, the Red Raiders are 2-0 ATS and have covered both games easily. Also over the last 3 years, Tech is 14-13 ATS overall, but 3-1 ATS when the spread is between +3 to -3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB TROY at ARKANSAS ST.
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (TROY) after allowing 175 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
51-31 since 1997. ( 62.2% 0.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fed Ex Cup playoffs resume Thursday in Illinois
by Steve Bennett

BMW Championship

Tees Off: Thursday, September 12
Conway Farms Golf Club – Lake Forest, IL

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Tiger Woods 5-to-1
Adam Scott 12-to-1
Phil Mickelson 12-to-1
Justin Rose 15-to-1
Henrik Stenson 15-to-1
Rory McIlroy 15-to-1
Steve Stricker 15-to-1
Matt Kuchar 20-to-1
Jason Day 25-to-1
Luke Donald 25-to-1
Jason Dufner 25-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 30-to-1
Sergio Garcia 30-to-1
Jim Furyk 30-to-1
Jordan Spieth 30-to-1
Webb Simpson 30-to-1
Dustin Johnson 30-to-1
Keegan Bradley 30-to-1
Lee Westwood 30-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 30-to-1
Hunter Mahan 30-to-1
Ian Poulter 40-to-1
Graham DeLaet 40-to-1
Zach Johnson 40-to-1
Bubba Watson 50-to-1
Rickie Fowler 50-to-1
Graeme McDowell 50-to-1
Bill Haas 50-to-1
Gary Woodland 60-to-1
Nick Watney 60-to-1
Ernie Els 60-to-1
10 golfers 80-to-1
4 golfers 100-to-1
3 golfers 125-to-1
Angel Cabrera 150-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 12-to-1

After a week off, the FedEx Cup Playoffs resume Thursday as the BMW Championship returns to Illinois. This is the first time the par-70 Conway Farms course has ever hosted a PGA event. Here’s a look at the Best Bets…

Jim Furyk (30/1): Despite a 73 on Labor Day that led to a T27 finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Furyk remains one of the hottest players on Tour. Prior to Boston, he had a string of four straight top-10 finishes.

Steve Stricker (15/1): He’s still winless in 2013 and has been dealing with some hamstring issues, but the semi-retired Stricker has managed to post six top-10's and eight top-15's in his 11 starts this year, including a solo runner-up at the Deutsche Bank Championship two weeks ago. He’s finished 12th or better in each of his past six starts.

Tiger Woods (5/1): Woods went out with a whimper at the Deutsche Bank Championship, failing to crack par on Saturday or Sunday en route to a T65 finish. But he did finish sixth or better in three of his previous four starts, including a win at the Bridgestone Invitational. He’s also won this tournament in Illinois (at Cog Hill) twice. He remains the favorite every time he tees off.

Jordan Spieth (30/1): The 20-year-old remains red-hot. He finished T4 at the Deutsche Bank Championship, making it top-6 finishes in four of his past eight starts (including a win at the John Deere Classic). He’s 11th on the Tour in scoring average (69.798).

Zach Johnson (40/1): After a two-week absence to attend his brother’s wedding, Johnson returned in Boston and posted a T27, rebounding from a poor second round to shoot 67-66 on the weekend. Prior to that, he had five consecutive top-8 finishes, and seems to be on the verge of a first victory in 2013.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's Golf Picks

BMW Championship

Lee Westwood

Jordan Speith

Justin Rose

Kevin Chappell

Patrick Reed

Free pick: Graham DaLaet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Royals Wednesday and likes the Nationals on Thursday.

The deficit is 1293 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

CFB - Texas Tech +3.5

MLB
Braves
Over 8 Mets/Nationals
Over 8.5 Indians/White Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

Top Plays

CFB - Tulane +7.5

MLB
A's
Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

143-96-2 run

19-13-3 run last 35 plays

pod twins game over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Roark blanked Miami out for six innings in his first MLB start.
-- Rusin is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Ross allowed one run in 12 IP in his last two starts.
-- Kelly is 5-0, 1.50 in his last five starts. Thornburg has a 1.88 RA in four starts. but Brewers lost all four games.
-- Greinke is 6-0, 1.43 in his last seven starts. Cain is 3-3, 2.84 in his last eight.

-- Griffin is 3-0, 4.50 in his last three starts.
-- Richards is 3-1, 2.78 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 2-0, 2.60 in his last four starts.
-- Kluber is 2-0, 2.43 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 1-4, 7.00 in his last five starts. Garcia
-- Harang was 0-3, 7.89 in his last six starts for Seattle, last of which was back on August 25.
-- Locke is 0-2, 10.47 in his last four starts.
-- Halladay has a 4.24 RA in three starts since coming off the DL.

-- Diamond is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts, last of which was August 1.
-- Happ is 1-3, 6.86 in his last four starts.
-- Hughes is 0-6, 6.46 in his last ten starts. Chen is 0-1, 8.56 in his last five.
-- Hellickson is 1-5, 7.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Danks is 0-2, 8.71 in his last couple starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Garcia 0-0; Eovaldi 5-15 (3 of last 5)
-- Roark 0-1; Harang 8-22
-- Rusin 3-10; Locke 6-27
-- Ross 4-12 (1 of last 5); Halladay 6-10 (5 of last 5)
-- Thornberg 1-4; Kelly 0-12
-- Cain 8-27; Greinke 8-24 (4 of last 9)

-- Griffin 3-29; Diamond 6-20 (1 of last 9)
-- Richards 4-13 (3 of last 3); Happ 4-14
-- Hughes 8-26 (3 of last 5); Chen 4-19 (1 of last 8)
-- Peavy 2-20 (0 of 7 with Bos); Hellickson 11-28 (3 of last 4)
-- Kluber 3-20 (0 of last 6); Danks 7-20

Totals
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Washington games went over.
-- Five of last seven Pittsburgh games went over total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten San Diego games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee games stayed under.
-- Ten of last thirteen San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten Angel games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Bronx games; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Oriole games.
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Washington won seven of its last eight games.
-- Pirates won last three games, allowing nine runs.
-- San Diego won six of last eight games. Phillies won four of their last five.
-- Cardinals won last five games, scoring 35 runs.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.

-- A's won four of their last five games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games.
-- Bronx won three of its last four games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Braves lost five of their last seven games. Miami lost four of last five.
-- Mets lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs are 10-19 in their last 29 games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.

-- Twins lost five of their last seven games.
-- Toronto lost last three home games, allowing 22 runs.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games.
-- White Sox lost 11 of last 13 games. Indians lost three of their last four.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Volpe jets/new england over the total

Vince taylor New England

Micheal Anthony Ark.State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

NY Jets at New England

The Patriots look to build on their 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 Thursday games. New England is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2).


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/11)


Game 101-102: NY Jets at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.784; New England 144.513
Dunkel Line: New England by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

TCU at Texas Tech

The Red Raiders look to take advantage of a TCU team that is coming off a 38-17 win over SE Louisiana and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory. Texas Tech is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Raiders favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/11)


Game 103-104: TCU at Texas Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 95.059; Texas Tech 97.362
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3 1/2); Under


Game 105-106: Tulane at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 65.292; Louisiana Tech 89.393
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 24; 62
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-7); Over


Game 107-108: Troy at Arkansas State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 76.914; Arkansas State 82.086
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 5; 72
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 8; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+8); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Double dragon sports - free play

3 unit strong opinion
jets +11.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Padres -105

Brewers/Cards under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire UNDER streakers 87-35-9 (71%)

Miller 14-4 L18 (MIN/OAK)

Guccione 6-0 L6 (STL/MIL)

Winters 6-1 L7 (PHI/SD)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -117 over Tampa Bay
(System Record: 76-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 76-84-2

Football Crusher
Texas Tech +3 over TCU
(System Record: 11-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 11-8

Soccer Crusher
Internacional + Victoria OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 453-15, won last 2 games and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 453-391-61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1094-824(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS NE Pats - 11 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

The Indians look to build on their 7-1 record in Corey Kluber's last 8 starts when the total is set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Cleveland is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Atlanta at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Garcia) 14.454; Miami (Flynn) 13.104
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under


Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.272; NY Mets (Harang) 15.125
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over


Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 14.190; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.463
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Under


Game 907-908: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.278; Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.343
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over


Game 909-910: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Thornburg) 15.672; St. Louis (Kelly) 15.209
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+150); Over


Game 911-912: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.694; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.203
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under


Game 913-914: Oakland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 16.187; Minnesota (Diamond) 14.653
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Under


Game 915-916: LA Angels at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.166; Toronto (Happ) 15.061
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over


Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.679; Baltimore (Chen) 15.124
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+155); Over


Game 919-920: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 17.240; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.679
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under


Game 921-922: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.348; White Sox (Danks) 14.800
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 2

Jets (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)-- First road start for QB Smith who did alright in his NFL debut (24-39/214); Jets are 5-17 in last 22 series games, losing four of last five visits here, losing by 17-42-9-3 points. Pats won 10 of last 11 home openers (3-4 vs spread as favorte); since '05, they're 10-14 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games- since '08, they're 6-12 as double digit favorites. Jets are 8-5 SU in last 13 road openers, covering four of last five as dog in road openers- they're 11-4 as divisional road dog since '06, but just 4-4 under Ryan. Patriots are now +71 in turnovers in last 49 regular season games. Jets' only TD drive last week was short 31-yarder. NE outgained Bills 431-286, converted 11-20 on 3rd down, but Amendola (groin) isn't expected to play. Last 14 years, over is 10-4 in NE's home openers; under is 9-5 in Jets' last 14 road openers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 3

Thursday's games

Texas Tech (-1.5) beat TCU 56-53 LY, despite being outgained by 127 yards, primarily because of +3 turnover ratio. Red Raiders passed for 910 yards on 106 passes in first two games- they're 7-3 as home dogs since '06. TCU is down to one quality QB with Pachall (arm) out for eight weeks; Horned Frogs allowed 404 rushing yards first two games, including 207 to SE Louisiana- they're 1-4 as road faves last 2+ years. Neither team has much experience on OL; Tech has new coach, new QB, five new starters on OL.

Tulane (-6.5) lost at home to I-A newbie South Alabama last week, after being outgained by I-AA Jackson State week before. Since 2010, Green Wave is 9-7-1 as road underdogs; Tech lost 15 of 22 starters from LY; they're 4-6 as home favorites last 3+ years, but with a new coach, new QB and five new starters on OL, hard to endorse laying poiints. Since '07, Skip Holtz is 10-18 vs spread as a home fave, at ECU/USF. These teams haven't met since '98.

Arkansas State beat Troy last two years, with two different coaches; its 4th coach in four years for ASU now- they got drilled 38-9 by Malzahn and Auburn last week, outgained only 468-422. Red Wolves are 10-4 vs spread as home favorites since '10- they beat Troy the last two seasons, 41-34/45-14 Trojans' QB Robinson has more career starts (38) than his whole starting OL combined; he's completed 58-64 passes in first two games, rallying his team back from down 17-7 at half to beat UAB in OT in opener. Troy is 13-11-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Patriots -11.5
Texas Tech +3
Troy +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Free Play Friday Tulane/Louisiana Tech Over 57

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start
215-100 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% 71.8 units )
51-29 this year. ( 63.8% 9.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB SAN FRANCISCO at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 28-10 (+17.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season.

The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Jets +12

100* Over 57.5 - Tulane/La Tech

50* Indians -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Tulane +7½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Minnesota at Los Angeles

The Sparks look to build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games against the Lynx in LA. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Seattle at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.670; Tulsa 116.237
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 7 1/2; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 5; 146
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-5); Under


Game 653-654: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.404; Los Angeles 118.299
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 159 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game
201-120 since 1997. ( 62.6% 69.0 units )
26-14 this year. ( 65.0% 10.6 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play On - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
224-88 since 1997. ( 71.8% 0.0 units )
10-3 this year. ( 76.9% 0.0 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

200 Patriots -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

cle (mlb)

NE (nfl)

TTech (cfb)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle

THURSDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play St. Louis -170 over Milwaukee MLB TOP PLAY

Joe Kelly has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Joe Kelly has won 10 of the last 11 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.50.


5* Play Pittsburgh -175 over Chicago Cubs MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play LA Dodgers -175 over San Francisco MLB TOP PLAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TKWins












Sport
League
Competitor
Selection
Odds
Units
Game Date / GameTime






VIP FULL ACCESS
NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN
Tcu V/s TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech
+3EV
4
12 Sep 2013 / 7:30 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN
Tulane V/s LOUISIANA TECH
Louisiana Tech
-7-105
3
12 Sep 2013 / 7:30 pm





VIP FULL ACCESS
NFL - REGULAR SEASON
Ny Jets V/s NE PATRIOTS
Ny Jets
+12½-110
4
12 Sep 2013 / 8:25 pm

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
20* Jets/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +13

The Jets actually played a very good game against the Buccaneers overall in what should have been a bigger blowout last week. They put up a respectable 304 total yards behind rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who completed 24 of 38 passes for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also showed some guts late in leading the Jets down the field to set up the game-winning field goal.

New York was even more impressive on the other side of the ball, holding a very solid Tampa Bay offense to just 250 total yards. It limited Josh Freeman to 15 of 31 passing for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It also held the electric Doug Martin to only 65 rushing yards on 24 carries.

New England clearly had some chemistry issues against Buffalo, needing a last-second field goal to win 23-21 despite being a double-digit favorite. It will not be able solve those issues in less than a week’s time. The new receivers aren’t quite on the same page as Brady, and now both Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are banged up. Brady only completed 29 of 52 passes with two touchdowns and an interception against Buffalo. Rookie QB E.J. Manuel completed 18 of 27 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns for the Bills.

New York is 1-2 in its last three trips to New England, but its two losses have come by a combined 12 points. The Jets are 44-27 against the spread in road games versus division opponents since 1992. Rex Ryan is 13-5 against the number off a home win as the coach of New York.

Plays against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) – poor defense from last season – allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Jets Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers NFL

Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013


http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngN.Y. Jets @ NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND -11 -104 over N.Y. Jets


The Jets were at home last week and had it not been for a stupid personal foul penalty on the second last play of the game, New York would be 0-1 after a 17-15 loss to the Buccaneers.The start of the Geno Smith era went pretty well even if it did not have a lot to do with him. Facing one of the worst defenses from last year who were on the road would be a prescription for "as good as it gets" but pretty it was not. Kellen Winslow hung on to make the roster and then led the Jets with seven catches for 79 yards. Facing one of the weakest rush defenses from 2012, Chris Ivory only gained 15 yards on 10 carries. Bilal Powell looked like a powerhouse by comparison when he gained 29 yards on 12 carries. The Jets are getting way too much credit here for one lousy win in a game they deserved to lose. Had this game been scheduled for Week 1, the Patriots would’ve been a 14½-point choice. We now get the benefit of a weaker line because of Week 1 results. Pencil us in for that. New England’s stock is low after its opening game wasn't nearly as clean and pretty as we have come to expect from the Patriots. Any time that Tom Brady has to run five times to gain a four-yard loss is a game that is not going to plan. Stevan Ridley was benched for fumbling twice and the Pats two best players last week, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen are both out this week. We say big deal. Brady still passed for nearly 300 yards and two TD’s. The Pats defense held E.J. Manuel to 150 passing yards and the Bills have way more weapons than the Jets have. Ridley is a fumble away from being in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and that’s a place he surely doesn’t want to be in. Ridley had nine carries for 46 yards on the 15 plays he was on the field, but fumbled twice. Belichick gave him the “you gone!” and Shane Vereen took over and ran for 101 yards. The only saving grace for Ridley is that Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and will miss a month, which may help him dodge a bullet. But once Uncle Bill gets pissy, it’s hard to get back in his good graces, even for a young buck with Ridley’s talent. With that hanging over his head, Ridley could go off for a huge game here. There’s nothing Belichick enjoys more than beating up on the Jets and Rex Ryan. The Patriots near loss in Buffalo has many scared to lay such a big number but for us, it has the opposite effect. Buffalo is much improved and it’s always a tough place to play in. The Jets are one of the worst teams over the past decade and nothing has changed. Patriots should have little trouble holding Geno Smith, in his first NFL road game, and the New York offense to very little if anything at all. Expect New England to go off for 24 or more and that should be plenty to get this cover.

Our Pick
NEW ENGLAND -11 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)




http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngSurvivor Pick - Week 2
CHICAGO over Minnesota
Survivor Pick - Week 2

Raise your hand if you sweated out last week’s Survivor Pool with New England or Indianapolis and shame on you if you penciled in the Steelers after we warned you to not go near that favorite last week. Once again, we’re going to stick to our philosophy of avoiding the biggest picks of the week and that would be New England, Houston, Green Bay or Philadelphia of which 85%-95% of your pool will be on. Anybody picking one of those first three teams could not be faulted, however, we would be rather cautious about playing the Eagles. That brings us to our choice, the Bears over the Vikings. The Lions won by 10 points over the Vikings, but left a ton of points on the field by shooting themselves in the foot over and over again in the first half. They could have scored 50 and should have scored 40. Many teams will make adjustments after Week 1 but the Vikes just don’t have the personnel to get much better. This league is becoming more offensive minded every season and Minnesota is one of few teams that aren’t making the adjustment. Christian Ponder is not fit to QB in this league and when you don’t have a quality QB, you have no shot of winning more games than you lose. The Bears beat a very tough and well-prepared Bengals squad. Unlike the Lions, who defeated the Vikes by 10, Chicago rarely leaves points on the table. The Bears used to be known for their great defense and they are still a top unit. However, this season, the new Trestman offense has been a success in the one game played and it’s only going to get better. Chicago takes a huge step down in class this week, they have a vastly superior QB and offense and they also have the much better defense. Oh, and the Bears are at home. Our Week 2 Survivor Pick - straight up - is Chicago.
Used
Week 1 Denver √



Range
W
L
P
+/- (Units)


Yesterday
0
0
0.00
0.00


Last 30 Days
5
2
0.00
+6.18


Season to Date
7
3
0.00
+8.18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers NCAAF
Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_2.pngTexas Christian @TEXAS TECH
TEXAS TECH +136 over Texas Christian


The Horned Frogs come in as the 24th ranked team in the nation and when a ranked team is playing an unranked team, the line is usually inflated and that’s certainly the case here. TCU is not the 24th best team in the country and by the end of September or sooner, they will no longer be ranked. TCU played a decent game against nationally ranked LSU in its opener, eventually losing 37-27 but that is a flattering score to the Tigers. TCU managed just 259 yards of offense, had a lousy 12 first downs the entire game and much of its offense came at garbage time with the Tigers up 30-17 going to the fourth quarter. At home against SE Louisiana last week, the Horned Frogs were a 40-point favorite and didn’t even score 40 points, winning 38-17. Allowing 38 points to a conservative LSU offense and then allowing 17 to an FCS opponent is not exactly a ringing endorsement for the visitor. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs lost its #1 QB last week and will travel on four days rest to play this undervalued and quality opponent. Texas Tech defeated Stephen F Austin last week 61-13. Yeah, big deal. However, they went into SMU in Week 1 as a four-point favorite and buried the Mustangs, 41-23. After two games, Tech has racked up 102 points and nearly 600 yards of offense per game. It’s no coincidence that TTU’s offense is thriving. Kliff Kingsbury, a former TTU standout QB himself, was brought as the new head coach and he knows a thing or two about offensive efficiency and creativity. Kingsbury served as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at both Houston and Texas A&M the last four years. He has mentored former UH standout Case Keenum and was instrumental in helping A&M's Johnny Manziel win the 2012 Heisman Trophy. Kingsbury is working with freshman QB, Baker Mayfield and the kid has been near flawless, completing over 70% of his passes for 780 yards (third in the FBS), tossing seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Red Raiders defense is not great but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that because they might be better than advertised, they have the offense to compensate and they’re facing a second stringer. TCU has not looked sharp in the early going and as we have seen over and over again, that lack of sharpness has a way of lingering for an entire season when a team gets off to a poor start. We also get the profitable angle of playing the unranked home dog in a nationally televised ESPN game. Keep the points. TTU outright.

Our Pick
TEXAS TECH +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)







Range
W
L
P
+/- (Units)


Yesterday
0
0
0.00
0.00


Last 30 Days
5
6
0.00
-0.60


Season to Date
5
6
0.00
-0.60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013





http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_5.pngSan Diego @ PHILADELPHIA
San Diego -102 over PHILADELPHIA


The Phillies had big motivation on their side when they recently swept the Braves prior to this series but that motivation level is not nearly as high against this “also ran” guest. These two split the first two games of the series with Padres taking the opener 8-2 before losing to Cliff Lee last night, 4-2. Roy Halladay missed his last start due to flu-like symptoms. A shoulder strain nagged him most of last season, resulting in his first sub-200 IP year since '05. That shoulder carried 240 IP per season from 2008 to 2011. Halladay has spent most of this season on the DL. Before going on the disabled list, Halladay's biggest problem was his control and since returning, it has gotten worse. In three starts covering 17 innings, Halladay has walked nine batters while striking out eight. That’s not the only concern. Halladay’s groundball rate is at a career low 34%. His line-drive rate is at a career high of 27%. Age, health and the toll of all those great innings has made Roy Halladay a huge risk and the only thing that has him favored here is his name and pedigree. It has been nine straight pure quality starts for Tyson Ross since rejoining the rotation on July 23. He takes on a Phillies team who is playing out the season with a somewhat makeshift lineup. Ross is a must play, spotting less than a nickel or even a dime against Halladay and the Phillies. Ross’s skills have outperformed his results more than any starting pitcher in the game. His 3-7 record does not do justice to his 3.36 xERA, (2.79 actual ERA) 54% groundball rate, 8.4 K’s per nine and solid control. Put Tyson Ross on your radar as one of the most undervalued pitchers in the majors. Ross has nasty stuff, he has game and his chances of winning here are far greater than Halliday’s chances.


Our Pick
San Diego -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)







Range
W
L
P
+/- (Units)


Yesterday
2
1
0.00
+3.24


Last 30 Days
31
44
0.00
-12.83


Season to Date
212
217
0.00
+72.58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JRSTEVENS/Smooth44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

NOTE: PLAY OF THE DAY IS IN FOOTBALL
AND WILL BE SENT LATER

MLB
(904) NY-METS +135/RRL -1.5 +290
(909) MILWAUKEE +165/RRL -1.5 +245
(914) MINNESOTA +165/RRL -1.5 +325

*Play side and runline/reverse runline equally
"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Event Date: 09/12/2013
Event Time: 08:30 PM EST
Play: Jets +12
IF Win Units: +3.0 IF Loss Units: -3.3
Result: Pending


Arkansas State vs Troy
Event Date: 09/12/2013
Event Time: 07:30 PM EST
Play: Troy +8
IF Win Units: +5.0 IF Loss Units: -5.5
Result: Pending


Texas Tech vs TCU
Event Date: 09/12/2013
Event Time: 07:30 PM EST
Play: Texas Tech +3.5
IF Win Units: +5.0 IF Loss Units: -5.5
Result: Pending

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle

Thursday Football Plays

10* Play New England -11.5 over New York Jets (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

New England has won 40 of the last 43 games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more and they have won 16 of the last 20 home games. New England has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and they have won 10 of the last 11 games coming off a road win in their last game.


10* Play Texas Tech +3.5 over TCU (TOP COLLEGE PLAY) 7:30 PM EST

TCU has lost 10 of the last 13 games against the spread coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have also lost 12 of the last 16 games against the spread coming off a win in their last game. TCU has lost 13 of the last 19 games against the spread when playing as a favorite and they have lost 6 consecutive games against the spread coming off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.


5* Play Louisiana Tech -7.5 over Tulane (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)
5* Play Arkansas State -7.5 over Troy (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sports Capper

THURSDAY BASEBALL

100* Play Baltimore -160 over NY Yankees (TOP MLB PLAY)

Baltimore has won 13 of the last 17 games when playing on a Thursday and they have also won 90 of the last 156 home games. Baltimore has won 77 of the last 136 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and they have won 84 of the last 152 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season.

===========
50* Play Oakland -145 over Minnesota (BONUS MLB PLAY)

50* Play St. Louis -170 over Milwaukee (BONUS MLB PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie


Daily Football Plays for Thursday-Monday

THURSDAY


10* Play New England -11.5 over NY Jets (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST
New York is 5-9 ATS in road games the last two seasons
New York is 0-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday the last two seasons



10* Play Arkansas State -7.5 over Troy (NCAA TOP PLAY)
7:30 PM EST
Arkansas State is 16-6 ATS when playing as a favorite the last three seasons
Arkansas State is 12-1 ATS coming off an UNDER the total in their last game


10* Play Louisiana Tech -7.5 over Tulane (NCAA TOP PLAY)
7:30 PM EST
Tulane is 1-15 ATS coming off a loss by three points or less in their last game
Tulane is 2-12 ATS in road games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points



10* Play Texas Tech +3.5 over TCU (NCAA TOP PLAY)
7:30 PM EST
TCU is 3-10 ATS coming off an OVER the total in their last game
TCU is 4-12 ATS coming off a win in their last game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

Daily MLB Baseball Plays for Thursday

10* Play Pittsburgh -175 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
7:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh is 45-22 in home games this season
Pittsburgh is 72-50 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs


10* Play St. Louis -170 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)
8:10 PM EST
Milwaukee is 2-11 when playing on a Thursday
Milwaukee is 11-27 when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle

THURSDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play St. Louis -170 over Milwaukee MLB TOP PLAY
Joe Kelly has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Joe Kelly has won 10 of the last 11 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.50.


5* Play Pittsburgh -175 over Chicago Cubs MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play LA Dodgers -175 over San Francisco MLB TOP PLAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rich Sports

3* 107 Troy +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay +112 (moneyline) at Sportsbook.com

The Tampa Bay Rays have seen their hold on the final wild card slot dwindle to just a single game. Last night it was a grand slam in the 10th inning that led to their demise. Jeremy Hellickson will get the call to try and stop the bleeding, and he looks to be a good choice. Hellickson is off a great start vs. LA in his last outing, allowing no runs in 5.1 innings of work. He has also held this Boston lineup in check in his two starts this season against them, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings, and 2 runs in 6 innings. Hellickson is also 7-1 in his last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays have been struggling, but not at home when facing a right hander where they are 15-5 in their last 20. Go with Tampa Bay.

[golden contender]

Thursday card has the 92% NFL Total of the Week with a 92% System and a Perfect Angle. In College Football we have an Indicator that has cashed 47 straight times. In MLB its a Big Blowout Angle with a 27-0 Pitching Angle. Wednesday card sweeps. NFL 35 Games Over .500 the last 3+ Seasons. Free MLB Dog system + Contact info Below.

On Thursday the Free Live Dog in MLB Action is on the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 920 at 7:10 eastern. Tampa Bay has lost 2 straight at home. They are 5-1 this season off back to back home losses. They also fit a home dog system that won every time this season and plays on certain home dogs off 2+ run loss, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 2+ runs and scored 5+ runs. Boston cashed big as our Dog of the Month last night. However we will play against them hereto night. Jake Peavy makes the start for Boston. Peavy has a 5.14 road era this season and a 5 era vs Tampa Bay the past few years. Tampa had J. Hellickcson on the mound and they have won 10 of his 13 home starts and he has been good in 2 starts Vs Boston this season. Look for Tampa to salvage the final game of the series tonight. On Thursday the we have 3 Solid Plays up. The lead is the 92% NFL Total Of the week with a 100% Angle and a 92% System. In College Football we have a solid 47-0 Indicator in the TCU at Texas Tech game. In MLB The top play is a Blowout Side with an Incredible 27-0 Pitching Angle. Wednesday card sweeps. Congrats to those who cashed Big. Jump on now and get all 3 Top plays. For the free MLB play take, Tampa Bay. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LINE CHANGERS

CFB

10 UNITS Troy +8

1 UNIT Troy ML +270

5 UNITS Texas Tech +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Braves Atlanta -160

A's Oakland -1.5 -120

Nationals Washington -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

4* tcu-3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ats insiders club

Troy + 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Paramo

NY Jets - New England over 42.5
TCU - Texas Tech over 62.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pablosky

Pirates -1.5 (+125)
New England over 42.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Serrone

Texas Tech +3.5
Troy +8
Jets +12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

123 b green ov 61
161 ball st under 63-
177 kansas over 57-
193 wisc over 52

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

St. Louis Cardinals

** split 1/2* on ML and 1/2* on RL-1.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

LA Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Indians -123
Padres -108
Angels -116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Kruger

NFL Stat Of the Day
NFL Thursday home favorites have gone UNDER the lined total 63% of the time, 51-30, since 1990.

NFL home teams on Thursdays have covered 57% of games since 1990.
20-10-1 ATS when laying over a TD.
Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor NFL & NCAAF Original Systems - Picks 9/12

College Football
104. Texas Tech +3.5

Rest of Games
105. Tulane +7
107. Troy +7

NFL
101. New York Jets +13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price:

6* TCU -3

6* Dodgers -170

6* Patriots -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

New England -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler MLB Total Thu, 09/12/13 - 8:10 PM
dime bet - 922 CWS / 921 CLE - OVER 8.5

Analysis: Can't resist this one, but because we are spread thin w/three sports, I am betting it smaller and will reason it later. I do think this may close at 9 and want it sooner rather than later.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Week 2 Preview
by Frank Doyle

Patriot Games
Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Authority / By Jim Kruger

NFL Bonus Pick
Take NY Jets-New England Pats - UNDER 44
I have a recreational wager (10 to 33% of a unit) on the UNDER 44 in the NY Jets-New England game Thursday. Last Sunday, the Jets would have lost outright and not covered the point spread if their linebacker didn’t hustle and somehow catch Buc WR Vincent Jackson from behind on a breakaway pass which should have gone for a TD in the final 90 seconds. Then, an incredibly stupid penalty on the Bucs gave the Jets the opportunity for the winning field goal at the very end of the game.

It’s not going to be Christmas for the Jets against New England, but considering all of the Patriot injuries, 12 points seems generous to give New York. However, historically speaking, home teams favored in Thursday games have covered the point spread 63.6% of the time, 49-28-4.

I stopped releasing NFL Totals plays as I was losing more than I was winning with them. However, considering the Pat’s injuries and the ineptitude of the Jet’s offense, I have placed a recreational wager on the UNDER. Do not bet it any lower than 43 as that is one of the key numbers in NFL Totals.

History that supports the UNDER: When the home team is favored on Thursday games going back to 1990, the UNDER has happened 63.0% of the time, 50-31. That improves to 73.0%, 27-10, if it is a divisional game such as this Thursday’s. Regardless of divisional game or not, if the home team is favored by eight or more points, that UNDER goes to 18-4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Today's Play Of The Day:

New England -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Line Changers
NFL Play
NE Pats - 12 ( 3 UNITS )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won both games on Wednesday the Fightin Phillies -$144/Padres and the Marlins -$105/Braves for $50.

Ben lee has Np in MLB today.

"Mr Chalk" is 4-1 +$90 for the week and 95-57 +$667 for the 2013 MLB season.

Ben lee likes Texas Tech +3.5/TCU for $50.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

3* (NCAAF) TCU -3
3* (NCAAF) Tulane/Louisiana Tech OVER 57
3* (NFL) Jets/Patriots UNDER 44

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Late MLB Picks

918. Baltimore Orioles -156
920. Tampa Bay Rays +103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Playersbet Top Rated NFL Play

5 units: Pending 4 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 13fb & 10bk

Pending 9/12/13 8:25pm NFL Football 102 New England Patriots pk * vs New York Jets

Pending 9/15/13 1:00pm NFL Football 198 Baltimore Ravens +6 * vs Cleveland Browns

Pending 9/15/13 1:00pm NFL Football 200 Houston Texans +2 * vs Tennessee Titans

Pending 9/15/13 1:00pm NFL Football 206 Atlanta Falcons +5½ * vs St. Louis Rams



Matt Ryan's numbers at home are as cool as his nickname Matty Ice where Ryan is 34-7 SU in the Georgia Dome including a 15-0 SU and a 11-4 ATS off a loss. Getting the Falcons at home, coming off a loss, getting points is just to easy. What can we really say in this New England game....no spread involved all the Pats have to do is win....The Jets are 10-3 ATS as double digit division dog but we can toss all of that out the window who cares about there ATS record all we have to look for is NE to win this game and there is no way they dont. The Browns are just 1-14 SU on the road while the Ravens have won 7 straight home openers and covered the last 2 by 27 and 24 points. Baltimore is coming off a embarrassing loss to Denver and with 3 extra days rest we look for them to take it out on the Browns in front of their home crowd. Houston is 8-1 vs their division at home the last 3 years, with the non cover coming against JAX in a Thanksgiving day game. Houston is 7-1 ATS in September division play, while Tenn checks in at 0-6 ATS off a DD cover. Houston has covered the last 4 in this series and we look for another cover Sunday.

With the juice being so low at -130, we just cant say know. This should be as easy as it gets folks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Edwards

Texas Tech +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Factsman Saturday:
South Florida -12.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDE THE PRESS BOX / PHIL STEELE

CFB BEST BET
Tulane

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkosky Milan

50*: 1-0
30*: 1-0
20*: 1-3
10*: 2-0

10* JETS / PATRIOTS OVER 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr bob

strong opinion
texas tech+3 or more

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

Super Pick Cards w/ Kelly
Trophy Play TROY + 8
free play Pats -11 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Free Pick : TEX TECH + points 11-4 on free text picks in football

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

NFL Week 2 - 101 New York Jets @ 102 New England Patriots
Projected Line: 39 points
If New England's offense was already somehow shorthanded without Rob Gronkowski for Week 1, things only got worse for them now that RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola are also injured and out of tonight's game. Danny Amendola together with Julian Edelman were Tom Brady's two main targets on week 1, as they got 17 of 29 completions from Brady! Without Amendola tonight, only Edelman will be a safe target for Brady and so, Rex Ryan will set a gameplan to be all over Edelman tonight. We can't also forget that this is a short rest spot for both teams and New England is coming from a game at Buffalo, where they had 37:43 of ball possession! New England committed several errors last Sunday and their offensive flow was far from the level showcased last season. The Jets defense looked good last week also with the help of the inconsistent Josh Freeman and now against the depleted Patriots' offense, I expect the Jets defense to do a decent job tonight.

On the other side, New England's defense was quite decent against the Bills. Buffalo scored 21 points, but 14 of those points were the result of New England's turnovers. Geno Smith didn't have a great debut last Sunday and he was sacked five times during the game. The running game was basically non-existent, with Bilal Powell (2.4 Y/C) and Chris Ivory (1.5 Y/C) having terrible performances. Of course the Bucs run defense is an excellent unit as shown last season, but I expect New England's defense to do a good job tonight against a Jets offense that doesn't have a lot of quality options. TE Kellen Winslow was the receiver that got the most balls from Geno last Sunday and this shows the little risk that the Jets offense are taking right now.

Last season's games ended up being high scoring games (26-29 & 19-49), but the circumstances are completely different right now. The Patriots offense is lacking their regular flow due to so many injuries, while the Jets won't likely repeat the catastrophic performance they had last Thanksgiving against the Patriots. I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 43 @ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/12
Texas Tech +3 over TCU

(System Record: 136-5, Lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 136-121

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd Thursday's Play

75 Dime selectwon on the New York Jets and the New England Patriots to go Over the Posted Total. As I reelease this play at 7:00am Pacific here in Vegas, the total on this game is 43 1/2 in Vegas and offshsre.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

free picks:

New England -13 over the New York Jets (NFL Football)

Texas Tech / TCU UNDER 62 (Total Points Scored in Game) (NCAA College Football)

Pittsburgh Pirates -168 over the Chicago Cubs (MLB Baseball)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

September 12, 2013

Texas Tech
TCU -3, 62
9/12/2013 7:30 PM

SELECTION: TCU -3

Better coach TCU. Better QB TCU. Better Defense TCU. Last year Tech won a triple OT thriller. Seth Dodge threw 7 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. That is unheard of. This week Dodge will be leading the Atlanta Falcons practice squad. Baker Mayfield a true walk on freshman takes his place. If Mayfield can repeat the performance Dodge had with a weak, shuffled and injured offensive line than I will gladly not mind handing money over to the man in this one. Mayfield has played great this year, but go look at who they played. He will get his first true test tonight. Terrance Boykin is the best player on the field. Boykin was not even the starter this year, but lucky for TCU they have two excellent quarterbacks and Boykin last year came in and won some key starts against ranked teams on the road. His mobility is key in this game. This Red Raider Defense was basically last in College Football at creating turnovers last year. Another big key I look at in this game is special teams. TCU returns most of its special teams while Tech will be breaking in a bunch of new faces this year. TCU really wants payback for last years heartbreaking loss. Neither team is as good as last year, but TCU still has the pieces to compete. Texas Tech is going to struggle. Dont let TCUs gave last week fool you. This still is a well-coached defense and I think it was just a hangover game after losing to LSU which is a big named SEC program that the Horned Frogs played well. New coach and young quarterback is not a winning recipe for conference play. Take TCU.


New York Jets
New England Patriots -11.5, 43.5
9/12/2013 8:30 PM
SELECTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/NEW YORK JETS UNDER 43.5

Both teams are very lucky they survived week 1 and came out with a win because this game would not be good for the team facing 0-2 in the face. Can someone please name me one serious playmaker in this game that is not out or nursing an injury? Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, but make no mistake about it. You are only as good as the players that surround you. The Patriots are so thin at receiver to begin with and the guys who are playing are all banged up. Their tight ends in this game are names you would not even recognize. This team is in serious trouble. Their running game also is thin and has a few major injuries. This Jets Defense is not at all bad. Double digit favorites have not done well the past few years in the NFL. I will say this, I would not be shocked to see the Patriots cover the number just because on paper they shouldnt. The Jets have a new running back and fullback not to mention a new quarterback with basically nobody to throw the ball to. I am not a big fan of taking Unders in the NFL anymore, but this line is set like a line would be last year. The talent is far from last year. Now there is always a chance we get defensive scores, but I trust Brady enough not to turn the ball over. Geno Smith is another story, but I really think this is a game in which ever team gets a lead they will really work on that clock. Both coaches know this game can be won and I don’t think you are going to see either team take chances that can turn into 6 going the other way. Bottom line here is the offensive playmakers in this game under these circumstances are as weak as you are ever going to see in the NFL. If the game goes over then so be it. It is my job to put us in the best position to collect money. Nothing more and nothing less. I dont think either of these teams are capable of marching down the field and throwing up a ton of points. Rhythm is everything in this league and right now I just dont see it. Take the under and bet this game as soon as you can because I see this line dropping.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Tulane

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Falco

Patriots Over
TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning

15* TCU -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

IveyWalters

MLB Triple Dime Best Bet

3% Cleveland Indians -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Bettors fading injured Patriots

What was supposed to be a sure thing for the New England Patriots is looking less and less like an easy win, when the beleaguered Pats host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England suffered through an awful offseason and nearly got knocked off in the opener versus Buffalo. Now, the Patriots are down two offensive weapons – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola - and the betting public is showing their lack of faith in New England.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this AFC East rivalry and where they expect the odds to close come kickoff Thursday night:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12, Move: -13.5, Move: -11

Both the Jets and Patriots picked up wins in Week 1 but only one of those victories is being seen as a positive. Oddsmakers opened New England as a 12-point favorite after narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Bills and early money moved that spread just under two touchdowns.

However, once injury news got out on Vereen and Amendola, New York bettors came out of the shadows and trimmed this line as many as 2.5 points. New England is already missing many key weapons and will need its unknown skill players to step up on the big stage.

“As expected the money kept on coming for the Jets with the line shifting to 11.5, which has slowed the bettors down,” Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com told Covers. “It might not be enough for the line to hold at 11.5 and we’re certain the line will go off around the -11 mark. The early morning money will have a big say on the final number.”

The total has also shrunk in the past day, dropping as low as 42.5 after opening as high as 44.5 points. Both the Jets and Patriots played under the number in their Week 1 contests, however, New England boasted the fast-paced offense and was the best over bet in the NFL last season, going 11-5 over/under.

“After it was announced Danny Amendola wouldn’t play, the total dropped to 43.5 with 68 percent still on over,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.

"The punters have attacked the point totals, taking the overs. Shoot out here we come," says Candler.

The Patriots are seeing the majority of action on the moneyline, even more so after books trimmed their straight-up price from as high as -750 to -588. According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of moneyline wagers are on New England.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Z Money Sports

New England -11
TCU -3
Louisiana Tech -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NC marquee's:

Texas Tech
New Eng

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor NFL 3.0 Picks - 9/12

101. New York Jets +13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Line Lounge
Thursday, 9/11/13-CFB

Take #104 Texas Tech (+3.5) over TCU ( for ½ a unit)

The main story here is that TCU has lost their starting QB Pachall, and they did not look too impressive against Southeastern Louisiana. TCU gave up over 339 total yards, 207 of them rushing. Giving up 17 points to that weak of a caliber team and only scoring 38 doesn’t seem to foreshadow a good outcome.

Texas Tech has a new coach, and he has led them to a 2-0 start. His innovation, tempo, and play calling has really been phenomenal. He may not have the most talented team, but with Pachalll out, this game will come down to coaching. And it is here Texas Tech has the advantage. Against SMU, Tech had 461 yards and the new comer Mayfield looked impressive. He threw 413 yards for 4 TDs and these were not flukes. He has great awareness and is at ease in the pocket. I see him breaking down TCU’s secondary, and with TCU not being able to muster much offense, the TCU defense will get more tired as the game goes on. I expect a few innovative calls in this one from Tech, and I see them coming out with the win at home in this win.

Projected Score: Texas Tech 38 TCU 32

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Patriots -11.5

Patriotes /Jets Under 44.5


Pirates Pittsburgh -1.5 +125

Dodgers los Angeles -170

Today 3-0 on Early Bets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9xSports

Thursday 9/12

(NFL) 8:25PM NEW YORK JETS+11.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

3* New England

Free Play TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

MLB
Under 8 - Boston/Tampa Bay

CFB
Tulane
Texas Tech
Troy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

THURSDAY, September 12, 2013

MLB -- 7:10 pm ET
2 Units
[919-920] UNDER 8 -120 Boston at Tampa Bay
List Peavy & Hellickson

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso 15 jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley:“1 UNIT” COLLEGE SYSTEM TOTAL (Troy at Arkansas State OVER 67 in a 7:35 eastern kickoff televised on ESPNU cable): It was a unique handicapping situation the last time Arkansas State was on the field as they were facing former head coach Gus Malzahn who year ago has led the school to a Sun Belt Conference championship. This is the same Malzahn who was the offensive coordinator when Auburn won a BCS Championship title with Cam Newton as the starting quarterback. This past weekend Arkansas State failed to play “above” the total in a 38-9 road setback even though they were facing Malzahn who is now head coach at Auburn. It should be noted that in that contest Arkansas State had more than 400 total yards of offense and created 24 different first-downs. The oddsmakers apparently noticed as they have set an extremely high total this evening which also is in response to Troy State’s initial pair of games that ended with 34-31 and 66-3 final scores. Troy senior quarterback Corey Robinson so far has completed an amazing 47-of-51 pass attempts. In the past six games involving Troy State which dates back to the 2012 campaign the offense has averaged 556 total yards of offensive production. Here is a 67-PERCENT SYSTEM (83-41 past decade) that plays teams like Arkansas State after gaining 525+ total yards in consecutive games OVER the total, with five defensive starters returning from a year ago. In the past TWENTY YEARS after a game where the school scored at least 24 points in the opening half, Troy State is 13-4 OVER the total

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass Report for Thursday-all 50's:
Whie Sox on run line
New England
OVER Tulane
TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT Lock

TCU -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BANK
400 Louisiana Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
large
arkansas state over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Derek Hayes

1 Padres -112
1 TCU -3
2 NYJ 11
3 TROY 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

CFB
Tulane at LA Tech (-7-) 7:30 ET

You gotta take any job you can get these days! Just ask Skip Holtz, who after rebuilding the E. Caro. program slumped badly in his 3 year gig at USF where his teams slipped from 8 to 5 to 3 victories while Holtz was posting a 12-22 ATS record. Now Holtz has landed in Ruston where he inherits a La Tech team who averaged 51 PPG LY in going 9-3 SU under former 3 year HC Dykes. The problem is that Holtz also inherits a 526 YPG defense and only 7 RS, for the least experienced team in CFB. The result has been a very predictable 0-2 ATS start at NC State and last week in an uninspiring 27-14 win, no cover, v. outclassed Lamar. That means both Holtz and La Tech enter on a 0-7 ATS slide. That decline means Holtz enters tonights game on a personal run of 4-19 ATS. His pointspread personality profile precedes him as the dog in Holtz coached games is 62-33 ATS with Holtz posting a record of 19-31 ATS as favorite. Far prefer a Tulane team who under 2d year HC Johnson is rebounding from an injury plagued season of last year. They blew one at home to South Alabama last week 41-39 leaving them hungry for tonights action. That defeat certainly was not the fault of QB Montana, son of Joe, who led the Greenies to 327 yards through the airways.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR STEVENS

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

NFL
NY-JETS +12 (-20) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The entire world expects the Pats to blow the Jets away tonight---BUT NOT ME!! Folks, we all know anything can happen on any given day but forget about Tom Brady, we all know he is still "Tom Brady", but aside from him the Pats have MAJOR issues on both sides of the ball and the Jets are the PERFECT team to expose them tonight! Despite the ongoing challenges with the Jets offense they possess a strong ground game and a NOW a mobile QB, and this is a combination the Pats have always struggled with! Defensively, there is no comparison! The Jets defense has always been their strength and this year they are every bit as good as any other unit they have fielded in years past---and they WILL be the difference tonight! Let's take the J-E-T-S tonight knowing certain home faves are a PERFECT 0-19 ATS if they failed to cover the previous week in a 4th-quarter come-from-behind win! PREDICTION: NY-JETS 24 NEW ENGLAND 20


CFB
TCU -3

Certain road faves are a PERFECT 16-0 SU and ATS if seeking revenge for a previous season home loss in a game they actually outgained their opponent by more than 100 yards!


OTHER TOP-RATED PICKS
(CFB) TULANE +8 (-20)
(CFB) TROY +7
(MLB) CHI-CUBS +150/RRL -1.5 +260
(MLB) NY-YANKEES +140/RRL -1.5 +215


(-20) means buy half point if necessary

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

millionaire: New England Patriots

millionaire: TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo 10* Totals Dominator

NE/NY Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappersadvantage - Big East
TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Texas Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Neri
3 TT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Nelson

NY Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phil Villapiano Tulane +points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

kelso
100 Stl
50 Dodgers