9-15-13

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Reaction or Overreaction? Pro handicappers weigh NFL Week 1 results

The most common mistake a NFL bettor can make is overreacting to Week 1 outcomes.

While Week 1 tells us a lot about where teams are headed, it’s a snapshot of the big picture and banking on opening day results when wagering on Week 2 can get the season started on the wrong foot.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest handicappers what they saw in Week 1, and what bettors should and shouldn’t react to.

REACT TO…

Bruce Marshall – “The New Orleans Saints. If the Saints were going to re-emerge as the team to beat in the NFC South, they simply had to beat Atlanta in the opener. Mission accomplished. Better yet, they rallied from 10-0 down and needed their defense to hold on for the win. The road to the NFC South title now runs through the Superdome, where the Sean Payton Saints have now won and covered 10 in a row.”

Teddy Covers – “Pittsburgh catching 6.5 next Monday Night. The Steelers lost a lot of defensive leadership this past offseason and their top two pass catchers from last year are hurt (Heath Miller) or gone (Mike Wallace). Pittsburgh had won at least three preseason games in every previous season under Mike Tomlin. This year, they went 0-4. The opening day loss of Maurkice Pouncey is as impactful an injury as we've seen all year. Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.”

Jesse Schule – "Patriot fans should be concerned about New England's offense. Tom Brady turned the ball over twice and he was completing just 50 percent of his passes until late in the fourth quarter. Shane Vereen had a big day running the ball but a broken wrist will keep him out for the next several weeks."

Bryan Power – "I would point toward the Keystone State. I think the Eagles and Chip Kelly's offense are going to be even better than expected while the Steelers appear to be in serious trouble."

Steve Merril – “The New York Jets. The Jets were miserable offensively last year, but it does look like rookie QB Geno Smith might give them a spark offensively this season. He led them to a late-drive victory and played well overall.”

Sean Murphy – “Bettors should react to bad defensive performances. At this early stage of the season, the defenses should be ahead of the offenses, but that certainly wasn't the case for some teams in Week 1. I think it's easier to show offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 than it is to turn things around defensively.”

DON’T OVERREACT TO…

Doc’s Sports – “I would not overact to the loss by the Green Bay Packers against San Francisco. I actually felt the Packers offensive line played outstanding against one of the best defenses in the league. If not for a couple of bad calls, Green Bay would have earned the victory in a hostile environment. I expect the Packers to bounce back well at home next week, as they still have the best coach/quarterback combination in the league.”

Art Aronson – “Don't overreact to how well the Broncos and Chiefs looked. The biggest mistake that bettors can make going into Week 2 is overreacting to how well or poorly a team did in Week 1. Be mindful of the situation and take a good long look at the line before laying down your wager.”

Matt Fargo – “Do not overreact to the amount of low-scoring games in Week 1. The under went 8-4-1 Sunday but that doesn’t mean that offenses won't step it back up in the coming weeks. If anything, these low-scoring games will present some value in Week 2, as we have seen some lower than expected totals come out for Week 2. We can definitely use this to our advantage as the bounce angle is always a very good one when it comes to attacking totals on a week-to-week basis.”

Jesse Schule – "Don't overreact to Adrian Peterson's big day, scoring three touchdowns against the Lions. After breaking away for a 78-yard TD run in the first quarter, he averaged less than two yards per carry from then on and the Vikings' running game was shut down for the rest of the game."

Steve Merril – “The Giants loss. New York outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards, but lost 36-31 because of six turnovers. This is unlikely to happen going forward and New York should still be the team to beat in the NFC East this season.”

Bruce Marshall – “Oakland and Terrelle Pryor. It looks as if Pryor might provide a long-overdue spark for the Raiders offense. But NFL defenses adjust quickly to new flavors like Pryor, and the aerial component of his game still needs refinement. Expect Pryor to be forced to deal from the pocket more often in upcoming weeks, as opponents pay closer attention to his escape lanes.”

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Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point underdogs on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as 4-point underdogs but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

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Sixth Sense

SF +3

3-1 ytd record

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Steve Fezzik

NFL Week 2 Earlybird

MIAMI +3

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GoodFella

NFL Week 2

(2*) "NFL 7 pt Teaser"

#206 ATLANTA FALCONS pk' to #201 MIAMI DOLPHINS +10

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The Philly Godfather



NFL [210] KC CHIEFS -1-110 100:

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Football Jesus Free Pick : Seahawks

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NFL betting Week 2 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTS INTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.

For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

Key numbers

Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

Patriot games

Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

More odds on the move

The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

Talking totals

If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

Who’s hot, who’s not

There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Chargers’ cross-country trip vs. Eagles’ frantic pace

Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one – San Diego – has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly’s rapid-fire attack.

New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts’ worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers – again - come the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Cowboys’ rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs’ conservative attack

Dallas’ new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.

Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Saints’ downfield weapons vs. Bucs’ poor pass D and rusty Revis

Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.

Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Broncos’ punishing pace vs. Giants’ dinged-up defense

The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn’t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metal.

The Broncos’ no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday’s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York’s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he’s not on the field, he can’t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in “The Manning Bowl”.

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Colin Cowherd Blazin' 5:

az +1.5
stl +6.5
nyg +4.5
chi -6
phil -7.5

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The Winners Circle

Sunday Football Plays

10* Play New Orleans -3 over Tampa Bay (TOP NFL PLAY) 4:30 PM EST

Tampa Bay has lost 16 of the last 23 games when playing as an underdog and they have also lost 15 of the last 22 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Tampa Bay has lost 17 of the last 24 games vs. NFC Conference Opponents and they have lost 9 of the last 11 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.


10* Play Seattle -3 over San Francisco (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Seattle has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games after gaining an average of 6 yards or more a play in their last game and they have also covered the spread in 5 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Seattle has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off a win by six points or less and they only allowed 7 points a game on defense last week.



5* Play Green Bay -7 over Washington (BONUS NFL PLAY)
5* Play Houston -9.5 over Tennessee (BONUS NFL PLAY)

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Monday Football Play

10* Play Cincinnati -6.5 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Pittsburgh has lost 12 of the last 17 road games against the spread and they have also lost 11 of the last 16 games against the spread when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points. Pittsburg has lost 17 of the last 25 games against the spread vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a home game.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 9/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 43.5 (-105) at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)

The defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens will try to get some things fixed after getting torched for seven TDs by Peyton Manning in their opener. But is it fixable? Baltimore lost a lot of talent and leadership from a defense that has mostly dominated in recent years. Gone are the emotional and statistical leaders from this defense. The Ravens opened up the playbook for Joe Flacco at the end of last season and it delivered a Super Bowl. As a result, they gave Joe Flacco a big contract, and the offense is now the focal point of this team. Baltimore will get RT Michael Oher back for this game, which will only assist the running game. Cleveland simply made too many mistakes against Miami, got behind and was forced to the air, and that did not work out so well. Baltimore simply doesn't have the ability to get pressure in the same way Miami did a week ago, and I think Brandon Weeden will have a lot more time, and he will also be able to get Trent Richardson more involved in the running game early. The Ravens went for 27 points and almost 400 yards on the road last week vs. at least as good of a defense as they will face at home this week. The Ravens have opened things up after a loss, where they are 12-4 to the OVER in their last 16. Look for Joe Flacco behind a raucous crowd to go nuts here. Make the play on the OVER.

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NFL

Week 2

Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)—Both teams played Monday, but Chargers blew 28-7 lead and lost at home; Iggles are off road divisional win at Washington, when they ran ball for 263 yards and had 53 offensive plays, just in first half. San Diego ran 51 plays in the whole game Monday. Since ’08, Chargers are 12-8-1 as road dogs; they’ve lost three of four visits here, losing by 16-10-3, with only win in ’95, as home teams won eight of last nine series games. Philly defense forced five 3/outs vs offense with rusty QB who hadn’t played in preseason, which helped them get a 19-yard advantage in average field position, a huge edge. Eagles are 6-12 as home favorites last three years, 1-6 as non-divisional HF last two years- they were 0-8 vs spread at home LY, when it was obvious Reid wasn’t coming back as HC. Eagles covered once in last five games as a favorite in their home opener.

Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)—Baltimore won last ten series games, with seven of 10 wins by 10+ points; Browns are 3-11 here, losing last five, with three of those five by 7 or less points. Ravens had three extra days to prepare after giving up 445 passing yards and seven TDs in Thursday night opener; they’ve won last eight home openers (6-2 vs spread), with over 6-1-1 in those eight games. Over is 9-3 in Browns’ last 12 road openers. Baltimore is 4-9-1 as divisional home favorite under Harbaugh, who is replacing defensive leaders Lewis/Reed off LY’s Super Bowl champs. Browns threw 53 passes last week, ran it only 13 times in 23-10 loss where they outgained Miami; would expect both sides to try and run more here, since Flacco threw 63 passes last week. Since ’07, Cleveland is 9-6-1 as a divisional road dog. Over last decade, teams that lost Thursday night opener are xx-xx in their Week 2 games.

Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)—Houston rallied from down 28-7 to win at San Diego late Monday night, using no-huddle offense and defensive TD by Cushing to forge unlikely comeback; Texans won six of last eight series games, winning 38-24/24-10 LY, just their second series sweep in last 11 years. Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to their old home (Titans used to be Houston Oilers); five of their last seven visits here were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Texans won last three home openers by 10-27-20 points; six of their last eight home openers stayed under total. Titans held Pitt to 32 yards rushing, forced five 3/outs on ten drives last week and had whopping 21-yard edge in average field position- they’re 7-6 as a road dog under Munchak. Look for Texans to get Foster more involved in running game; Tate played lot down stretch Monday. Houston is 6-1 as divisional home favorite last three years.

Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)— Indy was outgained by 98 yards last week- they had trouble with mobile QB Pryor, who had most of Oakland’s 171 rushing yards, but Dolphins don’t have QB like Pryor. Last week was Miami’s first cover in last five road games; they ran ball for only 20 yards, but since 2004, Dolphins are 28-12-2 as non-divisional road dogs. Indy won last four series games, but all four were decided by six or less points. Dolphins lost last two visits here 27-22/23-20; LY, they beat Miami 23-20 (+1.5), with 419 passing yards, outgaining Fish by 151 yards. Colts covered eight of last 11 home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites with Luck at QB. Miami was very good on third down last week, converting 8-16 chances, holding Browns to 1-14, but they had only one play of 20+ yards- league average was 3.97 per team. Dolphins were +2 in turnovers last week, good news after being -36 over last four years.

Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)—Since 2007, Carolina is surprisingly good 7-2 as road favorite; they’re 5-3 vs spread vs AFC teams under Rivera. Buffalo covered four of last six games as home dog; in last eight years, they’re 11-18-3 in last 32 games vs NFC teams. Panthers outrushed Seattle 124-70 last week, but had only 119 passing yards and one play of 20+ yards- Newton lost road opener by 7-6 points in his first two NFL seasons. Buffalo was outgained 431-286 by Patriots, had ten penalties for 75 yards, which led to Pats having 8-yard advantage in average field position- NE converted 11-20 on 3rd down- their only two TD drives were just 16-32 yards. Bills won four of five series games, winning two of three played here- Carolina last visited here in ’05. Panthers lost last four road openers (0-4 vs spread), losing by average score of 26-17.

Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)—Steven Jackson faces his old teammates in his Atlanta home opener; Falcons are 21-11-1 as home favorites under Smith, 13-4 in last 17 as non-divisional HF. Atlanta lost 23-17 in Superdome last week, as last drive ended on Saints’ 3-yard line; they were just 3-11 on 3rd down. Rams came back from 11 down to nip Arizona 27-24 at gun, despite a hideous pick-6 by Bradford and four personal foul penalties. Rams did average 7.9 yards per pass attempt as new TE Cook (141 rec yards) proved to be potent weapon. In his last six seasons as a HC, Fisher is 22-10-1 vs spread as a road dog; Rams were 7-1 in that role LY, with only one road loss (23-6 at Chicago) by more than seven points. Rams lost last 11 road openers, going 2-5 vs spread in last seven as dog in AO. Five of Rams’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.

Redskins (0-1) @ Packers (0-1)—RGIII looked rusty in first half Monday, little sharper in second but game was mostly out of reach by then; Washington seemed unprepared for Philly’s fast-paced offense, now they’re travelling on short week, playing team that scored four TDs at Candlestick last week, but also had six 3/outs that led to 13-yard deficit in average field position. Green Bay covered five of last six home openers, four of five when favored; over last four years, they’re 20-10 as home favorites, 12-5 as non-divisional HF. Packers won four of last five series games; Redskins lost last three visits here by combined score of 84-23, with their last visit here in ’07- they lost four of last five road openers, but covered four of last five as an underdog in AO’s. Washington is 13-7 vs spread as a road underdog under Shanahan.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)—Solid KC debut for Andy Reid, holding Jaguars without TD in 28-2 win; Chiefs have struggled in home openers, losing four of last five, going 0-4-1 as favorites. Since 2007, Chiefs are 3-14-1 as home faves; Reid was 9-15 as home favorite his last four years in Philly. Dallas was outgained 478-331 last week, partially because they had two pick-6’s which gave Giants two extra possessions; Romo’s ribs are issue here, he played second half in pain Sunday night. Cowboys are 4-2 in last six road openers, covering five of the six games. Pokes won six of nine against Chiefs, winning last two meetings by FG each; they’ve split four visits to Arrowhead. Reid lost six of his last nine games vs Dallas while coaching Eagles. Cowboys are 8-4 as road dogs under Garrett. Over last 22 years, under is 17-3-2 in Chiefs’ home openers; 12 of last 16 Dallas road openers went over.

Vikings (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)—Chicago won six of last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 14+ points; Vikings lost last five visits here, losing 39-10/28-10 here last two years. Peterson had 78-yard TD run on first play last week, then had 15 yards on 17 carries rest of game; until Ponder can present legit threat in passing game, defenses will stack up against Viking run game, especially with FB Felton suspended for first four games. Bears are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home favorites, but over last four years, they’re 4-2 as divisional HF. Since ’08, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road dogs, 2-5 under former Bear Frazier, who is 1-3 coaching against his old team. Last week, Chicago had three takeaways (+2) and was 3-3 scoring TDs in red zone- they had 14-yard edge in average field position. Vikings allowed 469 yards in Detroit, 352 thru air (8.0 yards/attempt).

Saints (1-0) @ Bucs (0-1)—Payton’s return to sideline last week was success, thanks to last-minute goal-line stand; Saints are 15-12 as road favorite under Payton, 6-5 in divisional games. Brees averaged 9.2 yards/pass attempt last week. Over last four years, Bucs are 3-12-1 as home underdog, 2-5-1 vs NFC South foes. Tampa was all set for road win to start season last week until needless personal foul on last play put Jets in position to kick game-winning FG, tough way to start season; they had 13 penalties for 102 yards, lost to rookie QB, now they’re facing one of NFL’s best. Bucs lost last three games with Saints, including 41-0 debacle in last meeting at Superdome LY, when Bucs gained 367 yards but were -5 in turnovers. Saints won three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 in last six road openers, with last five going over total. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in last eight home openers, with under 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Lions (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)—Arizona was 30-18 SU at home in Whisenhunt era; not sure I would’ve fired only coach to bring me to Super Bowl, but that’s me. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with eight of ten totals 42+; Redbirds won last four series games by average score of 29-16- they scored 31+ in last three meetings. Lions lost last six visits here- their last win in desert was 20 years ago; they’re 3-10 in last 13 road openers- under is 6-1-1 in last eight road openers. Arizona won five of last six home openers, with five of last seven going over total- they had 24-13 lead in second half at St Louis last week before losing at gun- Arians’ offense was 7-14 on 3rd down, averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt, but was hurt by 10-yard deficit in average field position. Lions had four takeaways last week (+2), outgained Vikings 469-330 as Stafford passed for 352 yards.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)— New QB Pryor was better than expected in opener at Indy last week, throwing for 217 yards, running for 112 more and converting 7-13 on 3rd down in narrow 21-17 loss, but Oakland has lost six of last eight home openers, going 0-5 vs spread as a favorite. Over last decade, Raiders are 9-23 vs spread as home favorites, 7-15 in non-divisional games. Jaguars lost last five road openers, but they’re 7-3 vs spread as dog in AO; Jax is 15-20 as road dogs last five years, but Bradley is also their third HC in three years, so not sure how much trends mean with them. Oakland outgained Colts by 98 yards but -2 turnover ratio did them in; still impressed by 7-13 on 3rd down with basically a rookie QB. Not only did Jax offense get shut out last week, only one of four KC TDs came on a drive longer than 24 yards. Jags won four of six in series, splitting four visits here; average total in last three meetings is 66.

Broncos (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— Probably last Manning Bowl, unless teams meet in Super Bowl; Denver had 3+ extra days to prepare after gaining 510 yards vs Ravens in 49-27 opening win, but over last eight years, teams that won mid-week season opener are 3-5 SU, 1-7 vs spread in Week 2 game. Home side won last five series games; Broncos lost four of last five here vs Giants, with last three losses by total of 8 points. Denver is 13-6-1 as favorite under Fox, 6-2 on foreign soil, 5-1 outside division. Giants are home dog for just 4th time in last five years; since ’07, they’re 4-2 vs spread as a home dog. Hard to tell awful lot about Giant defense after offense gave up two TDs and Romo played second half with damaged ribs. Broncos lost last three road openers, by 7-3-6 points; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road openers. Giants won four of last five home openers, with three of last four going over.

49ers (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)—This has become intense rivalry because coaches don’t like each other; Harbaugh once upset Carroll as a 42-point dog in Stanford-USC days. Seattle is 17-7 vs spread at home under Carroll; Niners are 10-6 on road under Harbaugh. 49ers won four of last five in series where home teams won seven of last eight; Niners lost three of last four in Seattle, losing by 3-25-29 points. Seattle outgained Panthers by 127 yards last week, but 109 penalty yards and lousy red zone offense (6 points on 3 trips) held them back in 12-7 nailbiter (Panthers fumbled on Seattle 8 with 5:25 left). 49ers were +2 in turnovers, 9-18 on 3rd down but also had 85 yards in penalties as they held off Pack 34-28- three of their four TD drives were 80+ yards, as WR Boldin had big day in SF debut. Niners won five of last six road openers, covered six of last seven, with over 6-3-1 in their last 10. Hawks won four in row, nine of last ten home openers, with under 10-1-1 in their last 12. In Carroll era, Seattle is just 1-5 as favorite of 3 or less points.

Steelers (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)—This is most points Bengals have been favored by over Pitt since 1989, but with C Pouncey out for year, heart/soul of Steeler OL is gone. Steelers won five of last six games in series where six of last eight games were decided by 7 or less points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 6-7-7 points- they’re 9-7 as road dog under Tomlin, but 5-6 in divisional games. Since ’08, Cincy has been consistent money burner as HF, going 6-15-1 vs spread, 4-11 in division games. Pitt offense didn’t score until last 2:00 at home last week, gaining 195 yards, running for 32- they went 3/out five of 10 drives, leading to huge 21-yard deficit in average field position. Bengals averaged 8.1/pass attempt, outgained Bears, but were -2 in turnovers and came up short- they started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line, also going 3/out on five of 10 drives. Bengals are 0-3-1 in last four tries as favorite in home opener; Steelers are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 19 or less points in all six games. Over last five years, Bengals are 14-21-3 vs spread in game following a loss; over last three years, Steelers are 11-4-1 vs spread in same role.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella
3* sunday night gom
sf+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* (NFL) Carolina Panthers -3

4* (NFL) Houston Texans -9
4* (NFL) New Orleans Saints -3
4* (NFL) 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 44.5
4* (NFL) Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

3* (NFL) Denver Broncos -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland Insider

MLB
4.5* Mariners/Cardinals over 7.5 (E) 450/450
3* Rangers ML (-167) 501/300
2* Orioles/Blue Jays over 9 (-105) 210/200
2* Indians/White Sox over 8 (-115) 230/200
1* White Sox +1.5 (-120) 120/100
1* Twins +1.5 (-105) 105/100
1* Rays/Twins over 7.5 (+105) 100/105

CFB
1* Akron/Michigan under 59.5
1* Georgia State/West Virginia under 58
1* New Mexico/Pittsburgh under 50.5
1* Georgia Tech/Duke over 58
1* Tennessee/Oregon under 73.5
1* Northern Illinois/Idaho over 62.5
1* Central Florida/Penn State over 50.5
1* UMass/Kansas State over 56
1* Florida Atlantic/South Florida over 45
1* Kent State/LSU under 55
1* UTEP/New Mexico State under 57
1* Marshall/Ohio over 68.5
1* Western Michigan/Northwestern under 59
1* Oregon State/Utah under 57.5
1* Central Michigan/UNLV under 54
1* Wisconsin/Arizona State over 55.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Tuley

Picks Week 2 NFL

Chargers +7.5

Dolphins +3

Redskins +7.5

Cowboys +3

Giants +4.5

Steelers +7 (Monday)

4-2-1 last week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers NFL Week 2
Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013


http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngMinnesota @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO -5½ -105 over Minnesota

The Vikings 10-point loss to the Lions in Week 1 was about as flattering a score and you’ll ever see to the loser. Detroit left many points on the table. They scored 40 but could have just as easily scored 57. The Lions moved at will and they scored pretty much at will as well. Minnesota’s offense is weak, its defense is weaker and once again the Vikings are on the road. Then there is the all-important QB position. Either you have a good QB or you don’t. When the bright lights are on, a quarterback is the lead singer and all the attention is on him. If he shines, he is bathed in that spotlight. If he sucks, he shields his eyes from the glare. Christian Ponder sucks. Against a weaker Detroit offense, he threw three picks, was sacked four times and fumbled once. Last season, Ponder would often have trouble reaching the century mark in passing yards, an almost unthinkable struggle in today's pass-heavy NFL. The Vikes offensive strategy; ride Peterson and keep things simple for Ponder so he doesn't make the big mistake, is one that worked to a certain degree last season but fizzled out as the year wore on and it didn’t work last week. Chances are it’s not going to work this season either. By contrast, Jay Cutler is a good QB that has the arm, smarts and potential to be great. Better yet - Jay Cutler was never sacked last week against a very tough Bengals defense. That speaks volumes about how much this new, shorter passing scheme can help Cutler remain healthy. He passed for 242 yards and two scores against a good Bengals secondary and was able to spread the ball around to his four main receivers. Marc Trestman has been a quarterback guru in the past this positive start sure had to make Cutler feel poised and confident out there. Cutler has a bevy of quality receivers and he also has a great one in Brandon Marshall, who went off for 8 catches and 104 yards last week. The Vikings defense not only surrendered 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Lions running backs, but they were also scorched by both Joique Bell and Reggie Bush as receivers. This bodes well for Matt Forte, another weapon in the Bears arsenal. Peterson had nice games against the Bears last year but he was great against everyone else. He also had a freak year that will not be duplicated this season. Without his lead blocker Felton, the outlook is less cheery. The Bears shut down the Bengal's rushing effort and no doubt will load up for Peterson again. The Bengals only passing success came with A.J. Green (who has no equal on the Vikings to be sure) and that was somewhat to blame because Charles Tillman was sick and throwing up during the game and even needed an IV during halftime. Folks, we have no idea why the Vikings are getting so much credit here. They are inferior by a wide margin in every key department that includes QB, offense, defense, special teams, coaching, receivers, intangibles, momentum and of course the field on which this game will be played on.

Our Pick
CHICAGO -5½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)



http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngCleveland @ BALTIMORE
Cleveland +6½ +100 over BALTIMORE

Baltimore gets a little extra rest for this game after that Thursday night debacle in Denver but do they really deserve to be this big a choice over Cleveland? We think not. The Brownies had a difficult time against the Dolphins but that was the first game with new offensive schemes and we assure you they’ll be better prepped this week. The oddity of the opening game for Norv Turner's new offense is that he elected to run Trent Richardson only 13 times while Brandon Weeden threw 53 passes. Weeden threw for 289 yards and one score but had three interceptions and six sacks. Weeden had an off game but he’s much better than that and we now get the benefit of some extra points with the Brownies because of their poor showing against Miami. Don’t overpay to wager on the Ravens. The Ravens come off the biggest season opening loss by a Super Bowl champ ever. It could have been even worse than the scoreboard suggested. The problem was exactly what the fear was - the Ravens defense did take a hit with the losses of several key players and the offense was just stunted without the likes of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. And they were facing a Denver team without Champ Bailey, Von Miller or Elvis Dumervil. Problem is, they have the same issues this week and we guarantee you that Joe Haden will be all over Torrey Smith, the Ravens only reliable receiver. Haden held Mick Wallace to one catch last week. Cleveland’s defense did an outstanding job in holding the Dolphins running game in complete check. The Brownies defense looks like it might be one of the most underrated in the league. With a depleted offense with a serious lack of talent, Baltimore is going to have problems sustaining drives and scoring points. Joe Flacco looked like the same average QB he’s always looked like and this year he has far less talent to throw to. The Ravens championship team swept the Browns last year, winning 23-16 at home and 25-15 in Cleveland. However, in both those games, Cleveland had a chance to win them outright. This season, the Ravens are worse and the Brownies are better. Additionally, the Brownies are a strong bounce back team with 10 covers in 14 tries after losing straight up. We’re calling for the upset here but will gladly scoop up these generous points.

Our Pick
Cleveland +6½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)



http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngDetroit @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA +105 over Detroit


This line is off. There is no way the Lions deserve to be favored in Arizona but because Detroit has more appeal after a win and racking up 40 points, they are falsely being billed as such. That Lions win last week came in Detroit against a team without a quality QB. Yet that team, the Vikings, scored 30 points despite turning it over four times while Adrian Peterson had one good run the entire game. The Lions were as sloppy as ever and they are going to find the going much more difficult in the desert. Reggie Bush went off for 191 all-purpose yards last week in his Lions debut but the chances of a repeat or anything close is remote. Again, that was against a pathetic Vikings defense. Detroit’s offense is a formidable one for sure. Matthew Stafford is among the top 4-7 QB’s in the league but these are still the Lions, a team that stumbled through a 4-12 record last year, which saw bad decisions from both the coaches and players, along with plenty of undisciplined penalties. Nothing has changed. They did the same thing last week only they played a team that made more mistakes than they did. St. Louis needed a 14-0 fourth quarter last week to defeat these Cardinals by three points. The Cardinals come off that close loss in St. Louis but at least the offense is looking better. With Carson Palmer at the helm, the passing game was better than any time since Kurt Warner was still there. The rushing effort was decent as well, which translates into great when you are talking about the Cardinals who have never, ever, had a formidable rushing attack. At least no one still living has ever seen it. Carson Palmer has already paid big dividends. He threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns and gave the Cardinals a good chance to win. He even made Larry Fitzgerald look like the elite receiver he really is. Palmer was sacked four times and lost a fumble but that should improve as the season progresses. The important thing is that the Cardinals finally have a quarterback and Palmer takes a step down in class when facing the Lions defense as oppose to the one they saw on the road in St. Louis. The Cardinals always play better at home and in particular on defense. They were bombed by Jared Cook last week but no other receiver gained over 41 yards and Daryl Richardson was held to only 3.0 yards per carry in his own stadium. Detroit came in here last year and was whacked 38-17. That was against a very weak Arizona team. This year’s edition of the Cardinals is so much better with a solid defense, a veteran QB with new life and an entirely new coaching staff led by HC Bruce Arians and his outstanding credentials. Wrong side favored.

Our Pick
ARIZONA +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)



http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngSan Diego @ PHILADELPHIA
San Diego +7 +100 over PHILADELPHIA


WOW, did you see that?! That was awesome! Welcome to the NFL Chip Kelly! Turn on any radio or NFL preview show and the first thing that’s talked about is that display by the Eagles on Monday Night Football. It was one of the highest rated MNF games in history and Chip Kelly and the Eagles delivered the goods by running the most 1st half plays in 53 years and running up a 26-7 halftime lead. The second half saw the Redskins make it much closer but many people are suggesting that Chip Kelly was milking the clock and the Redskins closed the gap in garbage time. Philly Chip has to learn that, unlike in college, in the NFL, you put a foot on the throat of an opponent until it quits twitchin’. In any event, it was an exciting display and it caused the Eagles stock to skyrocket in just one week. Week 2 lines are almost always an over or under-reaction to Week 1 results and that’s the situation here. The Redskins were ill-prepared for an offense they had never seen before. This is not college football where 95% of the players will never play football again after graduating. These are the best players in the world and if Chip Kelly thinks he’s going to “change” the game, he’s crazier than Lindsay Lohan during a bender. It’s been tried before with Dan Fouts and the Chargers back in the 70’s and to a lesser extent with Dan Marino and the Dolphins in the 80’s. Between them, they have zero Super Bowls and Michael Vick is no Dan Fouts or Dan Marino. In fact, you can’t run an offense like Chip Kelly wants with a guy like Vick. He’s not good enough and he’s not smart enough either. With all those plays last week, Vick ended up throwing for just 204 yards and he’s a hit or two away from not finishing a game. And let’s not forget that a rusty Robert Griffin III, who did not play a single down in the preseason, threw for 329 yards and two scores on Philly’s defense. San Diego blew a 28-7 lead but don’t ignore that they scored 28 points on a heralded Texans defense. Philip Rivers hit eight different receivers on just 29 pass attempts. There is no way he gets to stop at only 29 passes thrown. Last week RG3 threw 49. The Chargers looked very good for nearly three quarters and they, too, were adjusting to a new coaching staff and new schemes. The Bolts are very likely to be better offensively this week against a weaker defense than the one they saw last week. The kicker here is that the Eagles played a hugely emotional game on Monday night and won. They have Andy Reid and the Chiefs coming in here for another prime time game on Thursday. In terms of situational betting, that being, the Eagles stock has soared in one week, they’re coming off a hugely emotional Monday night win, they have another prime timer up on Thursday and this number is an over-reaction to last week’s display, it doesn’t get much better than this. Upset possibility.


Our Pick
San Diego +7 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)





Range
W
L
P
+/- (Units)


Yesterday
0
0
0.00
0.00


Last 30 Days
5
3
0.00
+4.10


Season to Date
7
4
0.00
+6.10










http://sportswagers.ca/graphics/icons/logo_1.pngSurvivor Pick - Week 2
CHICAGO over Minnesota
Survivor Pick - Week 2
Raise your hand if you sweated out last week’s Survivor Pool with New England or Indianapolis and shame on you if you penciled in the Steelers after we warned you to not go near that favorite last week. Once again, we’re going to stick to our philosophy of avoiding the biggest picks of the week and that would be New England, Houston, Green Bay or Philadelphia of which 85%-95% of your pool will be on. Anybody picking one of those first three teams could not be faulted, however, we would be rather cautious about playing the Eagles. That brings us to our choice, the Bears over the Vikings. The Lions won by 10 points over the Vikings, but left a ton of points on the field by shooting themselves in the foot over and over again in the first half. They could have scored 50 and should have scored 40. Many teams will make adjustments after Week 1 but the Vikes just don’t have the personnel to get much better. This league is becoming more offensive minded every season and Minnesota is one of few teams that aren’t making the adjustment. Christian Ponder is not fit to QB in this league and when you don’t have a quality QB, you have no shot of winning more games than you lose. The Bears beat a very tough and well-prepared Bengals squad. Unlike the Lions, who defeated the Vikes by 10, Chicago rarely leaves points on the table. The Bears used to be known for their great defense and they are still a top unit. However, this season, the new Trestman offense has been a success in the one game played and it’s only going to get better. Chicago takes a huge step down in class this week, they have a vastly superior QB and offense and they also have the much better defense. Oh, and the Bears are at home. Our Week 2 Survivor Pick - straight up - is Chicago. Used
Week 1 Denver √

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

3* NYG
3* OAK

2* BAL
2* NO
2* SF
2* DAL
2* CHI

1* PHI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTi

5* CAR - 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

9* NFL ROAD WARRIOR

Miami vs. Indianapolis
Point Spread: Miami +3/-125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ocal sports -


(5) Saints -3
(5) 49ers +3
(5) Mia /Ind Under 42.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Point Spread Pros

Week 2 TOP Plays

San Diego +7.5
Dallas -3
Miami +3
HOUSTON -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CKO

10 *ARIZONA over Detroit
Late Score Forecast:

*ARIZONA 34 - Detroit 23


Arizona lost last week’s opener (27-24) in St. Louis, but it was obvious from start to finish that the Cardinals were
vastly improved over 2012’s QB-limited group. Even with the Rams’ front-seven pressure, veteran Carson
Palmer was able to utilize his high-quality receiving corps for 327 yards and a pair of TD passes. Moreover,
power back Rashard Mendenhall provided a steady run threat, with 60 yards in 16 carries. The excellent WR trio
of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts & Michael Floyd caught a combined 20 balls. Must expect the Arizona defense,
led by its deep group of DBs, to play better this week back home for Bruce Arians’ official home opener.
Meanwhile, new Detroit RB Reggie Bush (who had 191 yards rushing & receiving last week) caught a couple of
potentially nagging injuries (thumb, groin).

NINE-RATED GAMES:
BALTIMORE (-6½) vs. Cleveland—Special situation: Ravens gave up a franchise-worst 49 points at

Denver; proud defense rebounds vs. immobile QB Weeden (six sacks last week).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

Key Releases

INDIANAPOLIS by 13 over Miami
SEATTLE by 14 over San Francisco
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Arizona/Detroit game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp Sports
Under Carolina/Buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Red Sheet

ARIZONA CARDINALS 31 - Detroit 24 - (4:05) -- Line opened at Detroit minus 1, and is still minus 1. The Lions have
bolstered their already potent offense (#3 in the NFL last year), with the addition of Bush, who contrib-
uted 90 RYs & 110 receiving yds in last week's win over the Vikings. So an easy one here, right, as
the Cards have lost 12 of their last 13 games on the field, with the SU winner here also covering? Not
so fast. The addition of Palmer gives 'Zona instant firepower (327 PYs in debut vs Rams), & that Lion
"D" allowed 28 ppg LY. Lions' Viking/Redskin road sandwich isn't the best of setups.
RATING: ARIZONA CARDINALS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh (Monday)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC'S

3 Unit Play. #102 Take New England Patriots -11 over New York Jets (Thursday 8:25 pm NFL Network) The Jets are becoming a popular pick for tonight, but the Patriots have won 5 straight games in this series. Throw in the fact that New England has not lost a game on Thursday Night Football, and we will side with better offensive team. Tom Brady has some of his playmakers banged up on offense, but the Jets just do not have any playmakers on offense. Expect New England to jump out early and cruise to a victory. New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC teams. New England is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 Thursday games.

4 Unit Play. #206 Take Atlanta Falcons -6 over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Good teams know the value of avoiding an 0-2 start in the NFL, and thus I expect the Falcons to go all out in this game and win it by double-digits. I still do not know how St. Louis came back to beat Arizona last week as the Redbirds led for most of that game. I have never been a big believer in Sam Bradford as a proven winner in the league. Atlanta just has too many weapons on offense for St. Louis to keep pace in this game. St. Louis is 18-38 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 38 games played during September. Atlanta is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss. Good teams do not start 0-2.

5 Unit Play. #220 Take New York Giants +4.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. As bad as the Giants played in Dallas with six turnovers, they still were at mid-field with 2 minutes to play with a chance to win the game. Now they are at home and desperate for a victory against the high-powered Broncos offense. Good team know that it is very hard to make the playoffs when starting 0-2, and thus I truly believe that the Giants need this more. The Broncos are still missing some key parts on defense, and thus I like the Giants front four better than I do the Broncos front four. Expect a lot of points in this game, but the Giants will not only cover the spread, they will win straight up. The Giants are 10-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.

4 Unit Play. #223 Take Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN) These traditional AFC North Rivals are set to do battle against one another tonight in Cincinnati. Both team's lost opening week, and I cannot ever remember Pittsburgh being this big of an underdog against Cincinnati. But that would seem to be warranted since Pittsburgh looked like the worst team in the league last Sunday against Tennessee. That being said, I expect a big bounce-back week from the Steelers, as they are pros and there really is not much carryover from week to week in the NFL. Pittsburgh is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Cincinnati is 2-7 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 11 games against AFC North teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FERRIGNO

6-Unit Play. Take #212 Chicago (-6) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month.


While everyone else in the bobblehead media isn't quite sure what to do with the Chicago Bears I am staking a position - I think they are one of the best teams in the NFL. This whole situation is almost a carbon copy of how I felt about Atlanta last year. Last season NO ONE was talking about the Falcons in early September. But I said they had a great chance to make it to the Super Bowl. I was literally the only NFL analyst that considered them one of the best teams in the league and all they did was go 13-3. Well, I am on an island with the Bears this year but right now I think they are legit. I have talked about and written about Chicago this preseason, focusing on the fact that they have been much better than people realize over the last three years. They have completely addressed their glaring weakness - the offensive line - and they have a complete team. But the main thing that they have going for them, like Atlanta last year, is a fresh coaching perspective and a new, aggressive approach. They have the talent. And now that they are in attack mode we'll see how good they can be.

There is a lot going on in this game here. It is Chicago's second home game after a sharp win over a solid Cincinnati team. It is Minnesota's second road game after getting handled by Detroit. I felt like both final scores for each team last week was misleading. The Bears really outplayed Cincinnati. And if not for the ridiculous antics of A.J. Green the Bears would've won in a walk. Minnesota got smoked by Detroit. The 34-24 score didn't reflect all of the points that Detroit had taken off the board or that they left on the field for the rampant stupidity that is their trademark. So I think that these teams are further apart than maybe the line reflects.

The Vikings have not been a very good road team. They lost by 10 last week. They won a couple late season home games last year. But they also lost by 14, 9, 18, 10, 19 and 12 points. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 10-21 ATS in their last 31 on the road.


Also, this is a revenge game for Chicago. They had beaten Minnesota six straight times before losing on the road to the Vikings last year. But even in that game the Bears outgained the Vikings by nearly 200 yards and lost thanks to an INT returned for a touchdown. The timing of that game gave Minnesota a huge situational advantage as well, and at the time the Vikings were playing really good football. Now they are not. And now they are at a situational disadvantage.


But more importantly, this is a revenge game for the Bears because the Vikings stole their playoff spot last year. Chicago and Minnesota both finished with 10-6 records and they split their season series, but the Vikings had the next tiebreaker so the Bears were home with 10 wins. They remember. The Bears are talented and motivated. They just beat a better Bengals team last week and they didn't have half the motivation that they do this week. Let's stay ahead of the public with Chicago and get on their bandwagon early.

3-Unit Play. Take #210 Kansas City (-3) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
The Cowboys are the same losers that they have been the past few years. I almost got suckered in - and I still think they could end up being the best team in an atrocious NFC East - but after watching them Sunday night I came to my senses. Tony Romo is banged up. Dez Bryant is banged up. And Dallas is in a letdown situation after a primetime victory over their rivals New York last week. The Cowboys were in a similar situation last season. They beat the Giants in Week 1. The next week they went on the road to Seattle and got manhandled by the more talented and physical team. I think that is what we have here. Kansas City is legit. I bought into them early and made a sizeable move on their season win total going 'over'. I have them going to the playoffs and I just like the karma around this team right now. I think that Arrowhead is going to be rocking. And new coach Andy Reid will want to make a good impression in front of the home crowd. Reid is very familiar with Dallas' personnel, having game planned for them twice a year for the last nearly 15 years in Philadelphia. I like the Chiefs defense. And Alex Smith will take care of the ball. So if the Chiefs play focused and tight football it will be just a matter of time before Romo makes a mistake that opens this one up.

2-Unit Play. Take #196 Philadelphia (-7) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #196 Philadelphia (-4) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
I know that the Eagles are very much the "trendy team" right now. But I have to tell you, they earned it. And they have about 100 things working in their favor going into this game. The Eagles have to be feeling sky high after their convincing Monday Night Football win. They have to have a positive vibe this week. Now they get their home opener in front of a fan base just waiting to get behind their guys. So the warm and fuzzies will be all over Philly on Sunday morning. On the other side is San Diego. They have to feel awful after blowing a huge lead at home against Houston on MNF. So now on a short week they have to drag themselves across the country for a 10 a.m. start against a team that is on a different wavelength. But that's not even the worst part. The worst part is that San Diego is not going to be prepared at all for what Philadelphia is going to do defensively. And their issues will be exacerbated by the early start time. I expect the Chargers defensive players to have a "what the hell is going on here?" look on their faces about midway through the first half. And I think the Eagles will keep it going for another week.

2-Unit Play. Take #219 Denver (-4.5) over N.Y. Giants (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
I don't think there is a convincing argument to be made for the Giants this week. Now, if this game was being played in Week 9 or Week 10 and this was the line I would probably stay away. The G-Men have proven to be a live dog in their day. But this early in the season the Giants just look like a mess. And the more I see and read about them the more I think that they are going to be awful this year. Truly, if you ignore their impressive Super Bowl run two years ago, the Giants have been perfectly average the last four years, missing the playoffs three times. Their core is aging and they simply aren't as talented as they were a few seasons ago. Just look at their back seven. It is a mess. Who is going to cover Wes Welker? Aaron Ross? How about the Thomas boys? New York's strength is its pass rush. But Peyton Manning doesn't get sacked. I do think the Giants are going to be able to score. But they won't be able to keep up with the Denver offense. The Broncos are just too far ahead of everyone right now and I think they are going to win this one going away.

2-Unit Play. Take #221 San Francisco (+3) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)



1-Unit Play. Take #217 Jacksonville (+5.5) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)


2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #201 Miami (+10) over Indianapolis (1 p.m.) AND Take #205 St. Louis (+14) over Atlanta (1 p.m.)


I almost pulled the trigger on a lot more games this week. But we'll be patient. I lean on Cleveland, Tennessee, Carolina, and Detroit and I have a free play posted on New Orleans.


This Week's Totals


1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 39.0 Jacksonville at Oakland (4:20 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.0 St. Louis at Atlanta (1 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 49.0 Washington at Green Bay (1 p.m.)


I would also add a 2-Unit Play on #205 St. Louis (+7) over Atlanta (1 p.m.).
This was my last play off the card but it is one that I really, really like. I would go with it.



MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take #224 Cincinnati (-7) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

Totals POW - Dallas/Kansas City Under 46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 betting cheat sheet: Early action

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 47)

Sam Bradford benefited from former top overall pick Jake Long's presence and was not sacked in the Week 1 victory. Daryl Richardson, who replaced visiting RB Steven Jackson as the primary back in St. Louis, rushed for 63 yards on 20 carries in last week's win. Richardson likely will have company in the backfield on Sunday as Isaiah Pead returns from a one-game league suspension.

Matt Ryan could use some better protection after being sacked three times while being put under duress on 25-of-38 passing in the season opener. Ryan also has question marks at wide receiver as veteran Roddy White effectively serves as a decoy as he tries to work through a high ankle sprain. Pro Bowler Julio Jones has been limited in practice with a knee injury despite reeling in seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last week.

LINE: Opened Atlanta -7.5 and bet down to -6.5. Total steady at 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+2.5) + Falcons (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -9.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Philip Rivers completed only 14-of-29 passes against the Texans, including a 1-for-7 performance with a pick-six in the decisive fourth quarter. Rivers did throw four touchdown passes, but to provide a comparison, the Chargers ran a total of 51 plays against the Texans – two fewer than Philadelphia ran in the first half alone. San Diego, which was ravaged by injuries to its receivers in the preseason, did not have a player catch more than three passes or go over 50 yards against Houston.

Under the direction of Chip Kelly’s high-flying offense, the Eagles ran 53 first-half plays against the Washington Redskins on Monday night and extended their lead to 33-7 in the opening two minutes of the third quarter. After his team ran 77 plays and finished with 443 yards against Washington, Kelly actually said of the Eagles’ offense, “I felt like it was too slow, to be honest with you.”

LINE: Eagles opened -7.5 and bet down to -7. Total moved from 53 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Eagles (+1.0) + home (-3.0) = Eagles -4.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s. Clear skies. Winds west 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following SU loss.
* Eagles are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Kansas City Chiefs first-year head coach Andy Reid will make his home debut Sunday against a team he knows all too well in the Dallas Cowboys. Reid was 17-12, including the playoffs, versus Dallas in his 14 years at the helm in Philadelphia. The Chiefs have lost their last two home openers by a combined score of 81-31.

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (bruised ribs) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (foot) are on target to play through their respective injuries. Dallas rode its defense to a 36-31 win over the New York Giants on Sunday in a game that saw the Cowboys force six turnovers, two of which they returned for touchdowns.

LINE: Chiefs opened as low as -1.5 and moved to -3. Total steady at 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-2.5) + Chiefs (0.0) + home (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 80s. 34 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-5 in Chiefs' last 22 home games.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43.5)

he first order of business for Miami is to fix a running game that averaged less than a yard per carry and saw starter Lamar Miller held to three yards on 10 attempts. Wide receiver Mike Wallace, the high-priced offseason acquisition that was brought in to provide Tannehill with a deep threat, also made headlines following the game by grousing about his role in the passing attack (one catch, 15 yards).

Colts QB Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, was sacked four times by the upset-minded Oakland Raiders but ran for the winning touchdown with just under 5 1/2 minutes to play - the eighth time he has directed a comeback win in the fourth quarter or overtime. Defense was also a concern for the Colts, who allowed Oakland to possess the ball for nearly 33 minutes.

LINE: Colts opened -3.5 moved as low as -2.5. Total moved from 42.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+1.0) - Colts (+1.5) + home (-3.0) = Colts -2.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9, 43)

The Titans' defense held the Steelers to 195 total yards and kept them off the scoreboard until Jerricho Cotchery caught a 4-yard touchdown pass with 1:23 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tennessee needed the strong defensive performance as its offense gained only 229 yards and produced just one touchdown and three field goals.

Controversy could be brewing in the Texans' backfield as Arian Foster was visibly upset after being waved off the field by backup Ben Tate during a fourth-quarter drive on Monday. Coach Gary Kubiak stated Foster, who missed the entire preseason with a calf injury, will be sharing the workload with Tate until he works his way back into form.

LINE: Houston opened -8.5 and moved as high as -10.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+3.5) + Texans (-4.5) + home (-3.0) = Texans -11
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 49.5)

Washington's defense couldn't slow down the Eagles' frenetic offense, falling behind 33-7 before mounting a huge second-half rally in a 33-27 loss. Robert Griffin III looked like a player who missed virtually the entire preseason Monday night. The former Heisman winner was relegated to a pocket passer, perhaps by design, as Washington looked to protect his surgically repaired knee.

Aaron Rodgers was sharp in Green Bay's opener but aside from a couple flashes of speed out of the backfield from rookie Eddie Lacy (14 carries, 41 yards), the Packers were forced to resort to their one-dimensional air attack. Rodgers is nearly unbeatable at Lambeau Field, winning 19 of his last 20 starts there. Green Bay could be without tight end Jermichael Finley, who missed practice during the week due to a toe injury.

LINE: Packers opened -9 and moved to -7. Total moved from 49.5 to 50.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+1.0) + Packers (-6.0) + home (-3.0) = Packers -10
WEATHER: Temps low 60s. 60 percent chance of rain. Winds west 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44)

Defending Cleveland’s offense will be a bit easier as second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden is still trying to establish himself as a viable NFL signal caller. Weeden threw three interceptions and was sacked six times while completing 26-of-53 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens have defeated the Browns by an average of 12.9 points during the 10-game winning streak.

The Baltimore Ravens attempt to defeat Cleveland for the 11th consecutive time during John Harbaugh’s head coaching tenure when they host the Browns. Quarterback Joe Flacco put the ball in the air a career-high 62 times while passing for 362 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against Denver. Getting Ray Rice untracked will be a priority as Baltimore’s top running back had just 71 total yards (36 rushing, 35 receiving) on 20 touches against Denver.

LINE: Ravens opened -7 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Browns (+5.5) + Ravens (-1.5) + home (-3.0) = Ravens -10
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Clear skies. Winds south 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
* Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (+1, 44)

Carolina needs to get something going down the field - Newton was 16-for-23 for a career-low 125 yards against Seattle - to open things up for the running game. The pass defense struggled a week ago and needs to pressure Bills QB E.J. Manuel after sacking Russell Wilson only once in the opener.

Buffalo had limited success on offense in Week 1 but needs more from electric running back C.J. Spiller, who fumbled on his second carry and was limited to 41 yards on 17 rushes. The Bills were just 4-for-13 on third down, which led to a lopsided time of possession (37:43) in favor of the Patriots, and it showed as the defense wore down in the fourth quarter.

LINE: Bills moved from as high as +3 to +1. Total moved from 44.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Bills (+5.5) + home (-3.0) = Bills +1
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 42)

Minnesota regularly sees eight-man defensive fronts with Peterson in the backfield, but quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to prove that he can take advantage of the single coverage on the outside. Ponder threw three interceptions and lost a fumble in a 34-24 Week 1 loss at Detroit and is facing a Chicago defensive backfield that forced three turnovers last week and led the NFL in that category a year ago.

The most encouraging thing about Chicago’s 24-21 victory over the Bengals may have been the spot on Cutlers stat line that read: sacks-0. Cutler was sacked 148 times in the last four seasons but the Bears rebuilt the offensive line with four new faces for 2013. Trestman, who specializes in a short passing game, is also trying to get the ball out of Cutler’s hands quickly and to receivers like Brandon Marshall, who caught eight passes for 104 yards and a score against the Bengals.

LINE: Chicago opened -5 and moved as high as -6. Total moved from 40.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+2.5) + Bears (-2.0) + home (-3.0) = Bears -7.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 60s. 64 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 4:05PM
215 DET / 216 ARI OVER 47.5 Bookmaker.com double-dime bet

Analysis:
Two big throwing offenses meet here with plenty of big-play personnel in the respective lineups. So, no, the oddsmaker has not made this total high enough.

The Lions are better offensively with Reggie Bush. He gives them an outside running threat AND a dangerous checkdown receiver out of the backfield.

The Cardi „nals' offense is much improved this season. Bruce Arians is an offensive guru and Carson Palmer has a big arm and a downfield mentality. His days of being an upper tier quarterback have been over for several years, but he's Arizona's best quarterback since Kurt Warner.

The Cardinals actually have two good receivers and one great one in Larry Fitzgerald. They are all made dangerous because of Carson and Arians' emphasis on passing. They will attack the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their secondary.

The oddsmaker hasn't quite fully adjusted to all the new rules skewed for offense. This used to be a big total to go over. Not anymore. Nowadays what should be over/unders of 48 and 49 should be put at 52 and 53 to accommodate what today's NFL has become especially when good quarterbacks are involved.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 1:00PM
207 WAS / 208 GBP OVER 49.5 Hilton double-dime bet

Analysis:
Both defenses were overworked last week. The Redskins are traveling on a short week. Their defense ha „d to face the Eagles, the most up-tempo team in the NFL, and was on the field for nearly 33 minutes. Green Bay's defense was on the field for close to 39 minutes against San Francisco.

The Redskins are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots with declining veterans DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. The Redskins ranked 30th in pass defense last season. They are vulnerable to the Packers' devastating passing attack.

Green Bay is averaging 34.4 points in their last five games and that's going against the 49ers defense twice and Vikings defense twice. The over has cashed 17 of the past 24 times (71%) in Green Bay's home games.

Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first half in his first action since off-season knee surgery. He started to get going in the second half and should be sharper in his second game of the game.

The Packers still can't find a pass rusher to complement Clay Matthews and could be without two key members of their secondary again, Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward.

There is a chance of rain, but only a slight wind.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Monday, Sep 16 2013 8:40PM
224 CIN -7.0(-110) Hilton vs 223 PIT triple-dime bet

Analysis:
Sometimes it can be a mistake to overreact to what happens on opening week.

But not in the case of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is in deep trouble.

The Steelers were the AFC's lowest scoring team during preseason when they went 0-4. Their troubles continued at home against Tennessee as their offense produced just seven points and 195 yards. This was against Tennessee, which gave up the most points per game last year of any team.

Pittsburgh has its younge „st offensive line in 56 years. The Steelers' one key offensive lineman, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, was lost for the season against the Titans. Pittsburgh's offensive line imploded without Pouncey. Cincinnati has one of the 10 best defenses and had a franchise-best 51 sacks last year.

Ben Roethlisberger has no ground game to turn to with a running back committee of rejects and his passing attack is minus deep threat Mike Wallace and reliable tight end Heath Miller.

The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not dominant anymore. The linebacking corps took a hit with a season-ending injury to Larry Foote. Pittsburgh's defense is getting old and missing several former mainstays, including linebacker James Harrison, who is now with Cincinnati. The emotional Harrison will be super psyched going against his former team.

The Bengals have won seven of their last nine regular season games. Their only losses during this span were by one point to Dallas last year and by three points to Chicago on the road last week in a game they should have won.

Cincinnati's offense is improved with Andy Dalton more experienced and rookie running back Giovani Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert joining A.J. Green, the best wideout in the AFC.

The Steelers have dominated Cincinnati through the years. Now the Bengals have a chance for payback on national TV catching the Steelers when they are physically down and their confidence is at low ebb.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* (49er) SF +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 1:00PM
210 KAN -2.5(-110) BetOnline vs 209 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis:
Andy Reid knows more about the Cowboys than the Cowboys know about Reid's Chiefs.

Kansas City has four Pro Bowl players on defense and an improved offense. The Chiefs won't commit the turnovers they did last year with Alex Smith behind center.

The Cowboys were celebrating like crazy after beating the Giants at home Sunday night. Dallas won by five points despite having a plus 5 turnover edge. That's not impressive.

The Cowboys have problems on both their offensive and defensive lines. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant aren't 100 percent either.

The Chiefs have one of the „ best home field edges in football. Dallas is playing outdoors on grass, which isn't a natural setting for them. The Cowboys also are 0-4-1 ATS the last five years when playing in Week 2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 betting cheat sheet: Late action

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Drew Brees passed for 357 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 and torched Tampa Bay for 307 yards and four scores in that Dec. 16 meeting last season. The biggest test for the Saints secondary this week will be against wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who is the best playmaker on Bucs' offense

Tampa Bay was called for five penalties that led to first downs against the Jets, including a personal foul call on linebacker Lavonte David that set up the winning field goal with two seconds left. Freeman completed less than 50 percent of his passes (15-for-31), threw an interception and fumbled the ball out of the back of the end zone for a safety in the contest.

LINE: Saints opened -3.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.0) + Bucs (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bucs +4
WEATHER: Temps in low 90s. 30 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds east 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 48.5)

Detroit came out of Week 1 healthy but is likely another week away from getting receiver Ryan Broyles back from a knee injury. The Lions can survive without Broyles thanks to a bevy of offensive weapons including Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, who had 90 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards in his Detroit debut.

New starting quarterback Carson Palmer had a solid outing in Week 1, passing for 327 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The Cardinals might be without two major offensive weapons as receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Rashard Mendenhall both are questionable with hamstring injuries.

LINE: Game opened pick and moved to Detroit -1. Total moved from 46.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0.0) + Cardinals (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +2
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 39)

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without quarterback Blaine Gabbert when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The second-year quarterback suffered a nasty laceration on his throwing hand that required 15 stitches during a season-opening 28-2 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and veteran Chad Henne will start against the Raiders.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor was just the eighth quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for at least 200 yards and run for 100 in the same game. Getting Darren McFadden untracked is crucial after the sixth-year back had only 48 yards – and a paltry 2.8 average – against the Colts. McFadden was limited to 53 yards (and a 2.8 average) by the Jaguars last season. Oakland recorded four sacks in the opener, a welcome development after having just 25 last season.

LINE: Oakland opened -7 and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 39.5 to 39.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+7.5) - Raiders (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -3.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 70s with clear skies. Winds WSW 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders' last four home games.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Denver QB Peyton Manning won the previous two matchups SU and ATS versus his brother Eli when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

LINE: Denver opened -2 and moved to -4.5. Total moved from 53.5 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.0) - Giants (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants +2.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-7 in Giants' last 24 games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick was sensational in Week 1, throwing for a career-best 412 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed Packers defense. The 49ers were the only NFC West team with a winning road record last season (5-3). San Francisco WR Anquan Boldin, who erupted for 208 receiving yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut.

When it comes to home-field advantage, no team enjoyed a bigger one last season than the Seahawks. They finished 8-0 at CenturyLink in 2012 and were especially dominant in their final four home games of the campaign, outscoring opponents by a 148-33 margin over that stretch. The home effect was evident when San Francisco visited last season, as the noisy crowd forced Kaepernick to call two first-quarter timeouts.

LINE: Seattle opened -2.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 44.5 to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-8.0) - Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -3
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. 43 percent chance of showers. Winds SW 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Broncos at Giants: What bettors need to know

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4, 54.5)

Chapter III of the Manning Bowl takes center stage on Sunday when Eli Manning and the New York Giants host older brother Peyton and the Denver Broncos. That the game will be played at MetLife Stadium - the venue for this season's Super Bowl - only adds to the hype for the sibling rivalry that has seen Peyton win the previous two matchups when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. Denver is coming off a 49-27 dismantling of the reigning Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.

The Broncos were already among the prohibitive favorites to come out of the AFC this season and did little to quell such lofty expectations behind Peyton Manning's record-tying seven-touchdown performance. The Giants, meanwhile, stumbled through a mistake-filled 36-31 loss at Dallas that featured six turnovers, including three interceptions by Eli Manning. Still, he passed for 450 yards and four TDs and had New York in position for the victory until he was picked off with under two minutes to play.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Giants opened as 5.5-point home dogs and the line has moved to +4. The total is currently 54.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (1-0): Denver erased a three-point deficit with a spectacular second-half performance as Peyton Manning threw for five of his seven scoring passes and finished with 462 yards overall. Free-agent signee Wes Welker had nine catches for 67 yards and two TDs in his Broncos debut and athletic tight end Julius Thomas added another electrifying dimension to an already high-powered attack with five receptions for 110 yards and two scores. The run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-1): New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz and five catches and over 100 yards each from Cruz (118), Hakeem Nicks (114) and Rueben Randle (101) despite the slew of turnovers. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Over is 8-3 in the Broncos last 11 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in the Giants last six versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos are riding a 12-game regular-season winning streak, the longest in the NFL.

2. Eli Manning has thrown for 12 TDs and the Giants have averaged 44 points in winning their last three home games.

3. Welker has 20 catches in his last two regular-season games versus New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alouettes at Lions: What bettors need to know

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions (-9, 52)

The last time the Montreal Alouettes played the BC Lions, quarterback Tanner Marsh thrust himself into the spotlight by engineering a massive comeback. On Sunday, Marsh and Montreal will visit the Lions for a rematch of that Week 9 miracle. Marsh faltered against the Toronto Argonauts last week and has already thrown eight interceptions in his first 89 pass attempts, but he won his first two games under center and has a knack for making big completions at key moments of a game.

It seems the Lions are only comfortable at home, as they are a perfect 5-0 at BC Place but 1-4 on the road. The biggest difference between BC’s play on the road and at home is its defense - the Lions allow an average of 21 points in British Columbia, but that number balloons to 32.2 outside the province. BC quarterback Travis Lulay suggested he's finally rounded into form by posting his first two 300-yard passing games of 2013 in a home-and-home set against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (4-6): Running back Brandon Whitaker was placed on the nine-game injured list on Monday, effectively shutting him down for the season. Without Whitaker, the Alouettes will use backup Jerome Messam and Marsh as a running tandem. Wide receiver Duron Carter has been a favorite target of Marsh for big plays over the last three games, totaling 210 yards on just eight receptions for a league-leading average of 26.3 yards per catch.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4): Veteran quarterback Buck Pierce was acquired in a trade with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers after last week’s games. Pierce, who spent the first five seasons of his career with the Lions, will back up Lulay and provide depth and veteran guidance in the lineup. Offensive lineman Ben Archibald told CFL.ca he feels the line has underachieved in its duty to protect Lulay. Running back Andrew Harris is getting fewer carries in recent games, partially due to his increased role as an extra pass-rush blocker.

TRENDS:

* Alouettes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in BC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. CB Cord Parks is tied for the league lead with three interceptions, while the Lions are even with the Saskatchewan Roughriders with 12. The Alouettes have 10 picks.

2. Montreal LB Chip Cox leads the league in tackles with 73.

3. The Lions have won their last 11 regular-season home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday English Breakfast: Southampton v West Ham

Just the lone game on the board Sunday as West Ham heads to the south of England to face Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium.

Southampton v West Ham (-120, +260, +400)

Why bet Southampton: Like a few other teams in the Premier League, the Saints made a splash in the transfer window and just need those new pieces to gel. Namely, striker Pablo Osvaldo who came over from Roma. Osvaldo got the start in Southampton's last game versus Norwich, but slotted in the hole behind striker Rickie Lambert. It's not a role that he's accustomed to as he was used as the primary striker with Roma last season. The problem is, Lambert has gotten off to a pretty decent start, so taking that spot in the Southampton setup could be daunting. Fellow newcomers center back Dejan Lovren and midfielder Victor Wanyama have adjusted nicely in manager Mauricio Pochettino's starting XI and make for the start of a very powerful spine. The Saints have put together a very intriguing side that could be a handful for most of the league.

Key players out/doubtful: Jos Hooiveld

Why bet West Ham: This game comes at a terrible time for the Hammers, who will be without Andy Carroll, Joe Cole and Stewart Downing in attack. They have struggled going forward since the season began and Sunday should be no different. Modibo Maiga looks to be the lone striker in the setup and with no Joe Cole, enter Ricardo Vaz Te to be a creative sparkplug on the wing. Vaz Te has shown some flashes in his career, but can never seem to find the consistency needed to hold a steady job in the Premier League. The defense, however, has been a bit better and more stable. Anchored by James Collins and Winston Reid at CB, West Ham has only conceded one goal, which was in their last effort at home to Stoke in a 1-0 defeat.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Carroll, Alou Diarra, Stewart Downing, Joe Cole

2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, West Ham 1

Key betting note: West Ham has just one victory in its previous 15 away matches in the league (four draws, 10 losses).

Where the action is: "The odds on this one will probably go towards the Saints before kickoff, so grabbing the price on them is probably best if you are backing them."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Alabama (-8 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Panthers on Sunday.

The deficit is 1247 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 2's Best Player Prop Bets
by Sean Murphy

The NFL Prop Shop opens its door for Week 2 of the season. Here are the best player prop picks for Sunday's action:

Most passing yards

Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns) vs. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

We cashed a Joe Flacco passing yardage prop last week, electing to support the Over, and we'll go back to the well with the Ravens QB this week as he matches up against Brandon Weeden.

In last week's analysis I mentioned that I was higher on the Ravens offense than most entering the new season. While things didn't exactly go as planned in Denver, Flacco still bombed away for over 300 yards, and I expect a similar story to unfold this week.

With Josh Gordon sidelined due to suspension, the Browns remain thin at wide receiver. I don't expect them to let Weeden loose against an opportunistic Ravens defense, instead leaning heavily on RB Trent Richardson.

Take: Flacco

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)

We might as well play this prop until the oddsmakers get caught up with their numbers. It's no secret that Chip Kelly wants his Eagles offense playing fast and that translates into more snaps for Michael Vick, and likely more passing yards as well.

Vick didn't seem to miss injured WR Jeremy Maclin in the least last Monday night and he should find continued success against a good, but not great Chargers secondary.

Philip Rivers turned some heads with a strong performance Monday night, but heading on the road on a short week is a different animal entirely. I'm expecting some regression from the Chargers offense here.

Take: Vick

Most rushing yards

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) vs. Arian Foster (Houston Texans)

Much has been made of the Texans’ decision to split carries between Arian Foster and Ben Tate. I'm not sure how long that gameplan will last, however.

Foster showed flashes of brilliance in San Diego Monday and let's face it, only flashes were expected from a guy seeing his first game action after missing the entire preseason. I do expect Foster to play a more prominent role in the Texans offense Sunday.

Chris Johnson is poised for a return to prominence here in 2013, but he faces a tough challenge in an angry Houston defense. I'm not a big fan of the Titans offense, and for good reason if you watched last week's game in Pittsburgh. Johnson will have a fine game, but won't outrush Foster.

Take: Foster

Most pass receptions

Jared Cook (St. Louis Rams) vs. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)

Give me the elder statesman in this matchup at the Georgia Dome.

Jared Cook was one of the breakout players of Week 1, coming up with a huge game against the Cardinals. However, he'll find the going a little tougher against the Falcons. We often see players turn in big performances in Week 1 only to regress considerably in Week 2. I see that happening to Cook.

Tony Gonzalez was fairly silent in New Orleans Sunday, outside of an early touchdown catch. Look for Matt Ryan to make a concerted effort to get the ball to his security blanket this week. The Falcons are at their best when Gonzalez is heavily involved and I expect that to be the case against the Rams.

Take: Gonzalez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

***NFL GAME OF THE YEAR***

7 Unit Take #220 New York Giants +4.5 over Denver (4:25pm est):
So many things to like about this play. First off we have a Denver team coming off a big Thursday night national TV opening night win. These type of teams are an almost instant bet against play the following week and especially so if that team plays well and wins easy. That was also a big game for Denver as the Broncos went out to avenge last year's playoff loss but don't be fooled by the final score in that game against Baltimore either, as the Broncos caught some big time breaks going into and coming out of the half. Those breaks really helped make a close game look worse than it actually was. Next up we have a Broncos defense missing their best player in Von Miller, a huge loss for them to overcome. Lastly there is tremendous gap between the AFC and NFC this season. The Broncos wouldn't be nearly the team many feel they are if they played in a different division and conference. This is a team that regularly beats up on bad football teams in an AFC that is littered with most of the worst teams in the NFL.

On the other end of things we have a desperate New York Giants team. Teams that start off the season 0-1 know just how important it is not to fall to 0-2 to begin the year. The Giants will definitely be playing this game with a sense of urgency here in this one. Their head coach Tom Coughlin said he was embarrassed by how sloppy the Giants played this past week. Coughlin was correct when it came to all the turnovers the Giants had in the game but outside of that there was little doubt they were the much better of the two teams at the line of scrimmage against Dallas in week one. Turnovers mean everything in the NFL and teams that lose the turnover battle by just one or more fail to cover the spread an amazing 77% of the time. The Giants were an almost unheard -5 in the game last week and despite that they still almost pulled off the point spread cover in the game.

This is a veteran Giants team with a top fan base. Both of them know how important it is not to start off the season 0-2 plus there will also be some added excitement in the air with Peyton Manning and a very good Denver team in town. This is a very tough spot for Denver as they are walking into a hornet's nest here. Also home underdogs off a week one loss are 21-10 in week two since 2005. Take the New York Giants and the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #201 Miami +3 over Indianapolis (1:00pm est):
I am just not a big fan of the Indianapolis Colts. Many bettors I know including myself felt that they caught their fair share of breaks last season and rode the emotions of their sick head coach also. We seen again in week one they are still a below average football team coming into this season as they struggled at home versus what is a bad Oakland Raiders team. The Colts were clearly the worst team in the NFL just two years ago and they still look to have a long ways to go too rebuild their team despite a decent record last season.

I was very impressed with what the Miami Dolphins did in week one as they went on the road and played a very strong game against a pumped up Cleveland Browns squad. Lost in a lot of the hype last season of all the good young quarterbacks was the play of Miami signal caller Ryan Tannehill who also had a very solid rookie season last year.

I think we have the better team here with the Dolphins and getting points is a nice added bonus. Take Miami plus the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #217 Jacksonville +5.5 over Oakland (4:25pm est)
It's a good idea here to plug your nose and make this bet. Always smart to back a team off an ugly performance in the NFL and no team looked worse last week than these Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams losing by 20 points or more in the NFL are excellent bets the following week as road underdogs (60% over a large sample size) and a team doing so in week one of the season (where things are magnified times ten) are even better bets.

Don't let one week fool you into thinking that this Raiders team is still not one of the two worst teams in the NFL along with Jacksonville in 2013. There is no way they should be laying this many points against any team in the NFL. They hung close last week against what is also a below average football in my eyes, the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders are going with Terrelle Pryor as their quarterback here and though he played okay last week, this reason alone should tell you just how bad the Raiders are this season.

Take the points and Jacksonville here in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #214 Tampa Bay +3.5 over New Orleans (4:05pm est):
I love grabbing a week one loser at home as an underdog in week two if they face a week one winner and we have a prime example of that here in this between these two divisional rivals. The underdog in this type of spot has been a consistent money maker and is hitting at over 70% the last eight years overall.

Keep in mind both of these teams were just a play away from opposite results last week as the Saints managed to hold on in the last seconds to a win at home against Atlanta while the Bucs were beaten by field goal to end their game. You wonder what this point spread would be this week if New Orleans would have given up the touchdown and the Bucs would have hung on for the win. There is no doubt it would be a point or two lower than it is here right now so we are getting some nice line value in this contest.

Also Tampa Bay was on the road last week while the Saints were at home where they are always a much better football team than when they have to go outside and play like they do here in this contest. Plus we have the same thing we had in the Giants play here in this one, as home underdogs in week two off a week one loss are 21-10.

Play Tampa Bay and the points in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

5 Unit Play. #202 Take Indianapolis -2 ½ over Miami (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
(Game of the Week)
So both teams won last week as the Colts beat the Raiders 21-17 at home (no cover) and the Dolphins (easy cover) won on the road against Cleveland. I understand that the Colts struggled against the Raiders but I don't see this Miami Dolphins team win back-to-back road games. I'm shocked to see this number drop and I thought for sure this number would be either 5 or 6 but I guess the oddsmakers believe the Dolphins win last week was worth 1-2 points. I'm taking the better QB at home and I see Andrew Luck outplaying Ryan Tannehill. The defense of the Colts did not play bad last week but if the Colts want a much easier win they must protect QB Luck as last week he was sacked 4 times. I see the Colts offense and the offensive line being much improved this week and I see the Colts covering this game and winning by double-digits. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and again winning back-to-back road games in my eyes is highly unlikely. The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and Lucas Oil Stadium has been very good to Andrew Luck.

3 Unit Play. #206 Take Atlanta -6 ½ over St. Louis (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
The Falcons are coming off a tough road loss to division rival the Saints which they had every opportunity to steal that road game. The Rams travel to Atlanta after winning a home game against the Cardinals which they came from behind to beat Arizona. I really like Atlanta in this spot as I don't see the Falcons losing 2-straight to open this 2013-14 season. Getting the Falcons less then a touchdown at home seems like a steal as QB Matt Ryan is outstanding at home. Look at these stats that Matt Ryan has at home; he is 34-7 SU in the Georgia Dome and he is also 15-SU & 11-4 ATS in his last 15 home games. Give me Matt Ryan at home against the Rams any day of the week! The favorite in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the Falcons forget that tough road loss in Week #1.

3 Unit Play. #212 Take Chicago -6 over Minnesota (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
The Bears squeaked out a home victory last week against the Bengals and this week the Bears defense get to face Christian Ponder. Ponder has struggled every game he has faced against the Bears defense. Jay Cutler performed well last week and the most shocking part of the Bears victory was that Jay Cutler di NOT get sacked. Wow! I can't believe I typed that. If the Bears offensive line protects Cutler again and the Bears defense bothers Ponder we should see another Chi-town victory and cover the point spread. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and the home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the Bears defense will keep this trend alive.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

6-Unit Play. Take #198 Baltimore (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
This is my Game of the Month.
I really like Baltimore here. The Ravens were blown out in their opener against Denver. But now they are back home. This team was angry about having to play its first game on the road. But now they are in front of the home crowd and the Ravens are one of the best home teams in the NFL. This is the first time that the Super Bowl champions have played in front of their fans since winning the title. It will be an emotional game. Cleveland lost by two scores at home last week. That was a big disappointment for a team after a good preseason. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Most of these wins have been blowouts. The Ravens have also gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after giving up over 30 points. They will correct the issues on defense. And now they have a chance to beat up a division rival. Lay the points and look for a big win here.

3-Unit Play. Take #202 Indianapolis (-2.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
The Colts just know how to win games. They came from behind to beat the Raiders last week and the Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Indianapolis beat the Dolphins last season here and I think that the Colts are even better now. The Dolphins are playing their second straight road game. They won at Cleveland last week and own and now are back on the road. But Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and just 6-15-3 ATS when they play in September. The Colts are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and I had this number at 4.5. I will put my money behind Andrew Luck and this winning Colts team. They will find a way to get it done again and maybe soon they will get some respect!

4-Unit Play. Take #213 New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
The Saints are a new team this year. Sean Payton is back on the sideline. That has given this team a big list. The Saints also have new coordinator Rob Ryan on the sideline. He has brought a new toughness to the defense. The Saints defense held the high-scoring Atlanta offense to just 17 points last week. The Saints have dominated this series and they are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against the Buccaneers. New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Tampa. The Saints beat the Bucs twice last year. They won by a touchdown down in Tampa and they won 41-0 at home last year. The Saints also won the last game in 2011 by 11 points. I think that this one will be another blowout. Tampa Bay lost an ugly game to the Jets last week. I think they will lose an even uglier one this week. Take the Saints.

4-Unit Play. Take #221 San Francisco (+3) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
This is a big rivalry game for these two teams. I give the edge to the visitors. I grade out the matchups for every team on offense and defense. And my grades for the 49ers are higher than the grades for the Seahawks. San Francisco has revenge for getting blown out in Seattle last December. The Seahawks are also dealing with some injury problems and some suspensions that have weakened their team. San Francisco has won four of the last five meetings in this series. They won in Seattle in 2011. And the 49ers are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games overall and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. San Francisco is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 2. The Seahawks have a big home field advantage. But I think that this will be a close game that the 49ers will win. Take the points here.

3-Unit Play. Take #224 Cincinnati (-6.5) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
This is a big opportunity for the Bengals. Cincinnati is playing on Monday Night Football against their rivals the Steelers. The Bengals lost in Chicago last week. They had an 11-point lead and they let that game get away. But they have to win this game to keep from going 0-2. The Steelers are coming off a bad home loss. They lost to the Titans and right now Pittsburgh has lost eight of its last nine games including this preseason. The Steelers are just 1-8 ATS in those nine games. The Steelers offense is having trouble and this team was hit hard by injuries in the first game. The Bengals have made the playoffs the last two years. They are trying to take another step. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bengals and the home crowd will give them a big edge on Monday night. I think that this is a big revenge game for Cincinnati after getting beaten up by the Steelers for years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Weather Report Sunday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (+3, 45.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s and skies will be partly cloudy over Ralph Wilson Stadium. Wind will blow from SW across the field at 11 mph.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 42)

There is a 90 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 43.5)

Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-70s. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-9, 50)

There is a 72 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow from the north toward the south end zone at 6 mph.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-70s and there is currently a 47 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from SW across the field at 9 mph.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 47.5)

There is a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-90s and wind will blow from the south toward the north end zone at 5 mph.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4, 55)

Skies will be clear over MetLife Stadium and temperatures will be in the mid-70s. Wind will blow from SW across the field at 7 mph.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 39.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from the west at 9 mph.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

There is a 58 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow from SW at 13 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Bears -6.5
Buccaneers +4
Seahawks -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

6-Unit Play. Take #206 Atlanta (-6.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month.
Both of these teams are solid NFC squads. Yet, Atlanta and St. Louis are coming into this contest off different outcomes. The Rams came from behind to beat the Cardinals in their opening game while the Falcons couldn't get the job done late in the fourth quarter to beat the Saints in New Orleans. I see the Falcons coming out big and fast in front of their home crowd and coming off a loss. Atlanta has been a solid bounce back squad at the books as they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. loss.

Yes, this St. Louis squad is dangerous as they have upgraded their offense with new weapons and a defense that can create turnovers. The Falcons however, have one of the best offenses in the NFL and the backing of a frenzied crowd looking for a home-opening victory. Another week will give Roddy White time to heal a bit more, and even if White is limited Julio Jones, Harry Douglas, and Tony Gonzalez should be able to have a field day versus a defense that gave up nearly 330 passing yards to Carson Palmer.

Even more significant is Steven Jackson. SJax is going to want to make a statement. Jackson and the Rams did part ways on good terms but he is going to want to show St. Louis that he still has it. SJax will continue to be an integral part of the Falcons offense and he will be chomping at the bit to show the Atlanta fans that he can get the job done. He may have a few butterflies as this is his first home, regular season game for Atlanta, but those will fly-by-the-wayside soon enough as he scampers all over the Rams.

There are two big trends that back the Falcons in this one and they just make me like this game even more. The Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two teams and the home squad is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. This game has a 31-17 type feel for me as the Falcons coast in the Georgia Dome.

4-Unit Play. Take #216 Arizona (+1.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
I know it is early in the season, but I have a good feel for this Lions squad. We loved them in Week 1 versus Minnesota, in front of their home crowd, and now we love Arizona as the Lions head cross country to play a Cardinals team hungry for a win. Arizona is a team that is better than most people are giving them credit for, and they will prove it by beating a Lions team that many have pegged for the playoffs.

Detroit is just not a team that I would wager on when they are on the road, and especially when they are laying points on the road. The Lions are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Arizona. Even worse for Detroit they are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games versus the NFC.

The Cardinals offense looked much improved with Carson Palmer at the helm, especially Larry Fitzgerald. Palmer will get more and more comfortable with this squad with each passing weekend, and the rowdy home crowd will give him extra motivation. Arizona has to go on the road for their next two games and they will be extra focused to get a home win coming off that tough loss in St. Louis last weekend.

Yes, Detroit is a sexy team, and yes, the public is all over the Lions, but no, they are not the sharp play. The Cardinals at home, versus a poor road team like the Lions, especially laying points, is the way to go. Take the home squad getting the points as the Cardinals pull out a close one 24-20.

3-Unit Play. Take #213 New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
This is not my typical type of play. I am not normally a fan of playing a small road favorite coming off a big game, but I just can't resist. Tampa Bay is just not that good a squad and New Orleans is just going to get better and better. Even if the Saints don't play well they still cover this small line. Tampa threw everything they could at a Saints team that was undermanned and without their coach and they still lost 35-28 in Tampa last season. Now Sean Payton is back and the Saints defense looked better than expected versus the Falcons last weekend. These two factors spell trouble for the Bucs, regardless of where this game is being played.

The Saints are a great team coming off both an ATS win and a S.U. win. New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an S.U. win and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after an ATS win. An even better trend, or trends, are the fact that New Orleans is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus the NFC and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus the NFC South. This is taking into account their struggles last year without Payton. Now that he is back the ship has been righted in my humble opinion.

Tampa Bay was shell shocked last weekend versus the Jets, and now they have the pressure of trying to steal one from the Saints? Not happening. Tampa Bay is just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus New Orleans. The road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings between the two teams. Like I said, this isn't typically the type of play that I release, but it is just too good to pass up. Take the small road favorite in this one as New Orleans wins 28-17.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges - picks of the pole

All Single Plays

Houston -9 vs Tennessee
Carolina -3 vs Buffalo
Minnesota +6 vs Chicago
New Orleans -3 vs Tampa Bay
Seattle -3 vs San Francisco
NY Giants +4.5 vs Denver
Cincy -7 vs Pittsburgh
St Louis/Atlanta Under 47.5
Denver/NY Giants Over 54.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHAD MATTHEWS

3 Unit Play. ROT# 213 New Orleans Saints (-3) over the Tampa Bay Bucaneers (Sunday Sept 15, 1PM ET)
In Week one Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay Bucaneers looked lost against a lowly New York Jets squad squandering a small lead in the final minutes to lose the game outright against a Jets team that has no true talent on both sides of the ball. The New Orleans Saints on the other hand were put to the test going against one of the elite teams in the league beating the Atlanta Falcons in their home opener. Quarterback Drew Brees was on point completing 74 percent of his passes and throwing for 357 yards and two touchdowns. This does not fair well for a Bucaneers team that has no pass rush defense whatsoever. Last season when these two teams last met the Saints tore apart the Bucs in blowout fashion winning 41-0. The Saints are 7-3 ATS the past ten matchups. Expect Brees and the Saints offense to pick apart the disoriented Bucs defensive line. Take the Saints and lay the points at -3

4 Unit Play. ROT # 212 Chicago Bears (-5.5) over the Minnesota Vikings (Sunday Sept 15, 1PM ET)
The Chicago Bears have won 11 out of their last 12 meetings against the Vikings at Soldier Field and have won the last three meetings by an average of 21 points. With Christian Ponder at the Quarterback spot for the Vikings I just do not see Minnesota hanging around long in this one. The Bears have one of toughest defenses in the league and I expect them to get to Ponder quite often in this one. Ponder always has trouble protecting the ball on offense and is prone to turning the ball over as he was intercepted three times last week against a Detroit Lions team thats defense is not as stingy as the Bears defensive line is. Plain and simple the Bears have the Vikings number, I expect the Bears to come out early and put the Vikings away with ease. Take the Bears and the points at -5.5.

4 Unit Play. ROT # 208 Take OVER 49 in Washington Redskins@Green Bay Packers (Sunday Sept 15,1PM ET)
This matchup will feature two of the NFL most elite offenses. In week one the Packers managed to put up 28 points against a great San Francisco 49ers defense on the road where the Redskins even though got off to a very slow start offensively was able to throw 27 points on the board against a high offensive tempo Philadelphia Eagles. Expect the Packers to play similar to the way the Eagles played the Redskins last week with a fast tempo no huddle offense. Expect Aaron Rodgers to put an aerial assault on the Redskins. Robert Griffin III did not participate in preseason activities and had quite a bit of rust in week one but I expect him to step up his game this weekend. I see a high scoring affair as these two offenses are going to spark. Take the OVER 49 points here

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

2 UNIT = Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs - CHIEFS -3 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)

It was an impressive season opener for the Chiefs, even if it was against the Jaguars. Kansas City went into Jacksonville on Sunday with a new head coach, new quarterback and new attitude after two straight losing seasons and beat the Jaguars 28-2 as 3.5 point favorites. The Chiefs led the NFL allowing just 178 yards against on defense last week, and their offense was efficient with Alex Smith going 21 for 34 for 173 yards with 2 TDs and adding 120 yards on the ground. The Cowboys also enjoyed a Week 1 victory in a wild 36-31 victory over the Giants. The Giants had six turnovers in that game, and what should worry Dallas fans a little bit is that they still won by less than a touchdown. Manning was able to throw for 450 yards and 4 TDs to go with his 3 INTs, even with the Cowboys knowing that he was going to be throwing for the most part of the second half (only 14 rush attempts the entire game). Tony Romo looked good and the Cowboys established a running game, but this week they will go into Kansas City for the Chiefs home opener in what should be a crazy atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. When the Chiefs are a good football team they have one of the best home field advantages (in their last winning season in 2010 where they were 10-6 on the year they were 7-1 at home). The Cowboys have a trend of playing poorly after a win going 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up victory. This is a much improved Kansas City team and I'll lay the 3 points with them at home this week as they look to start 2-0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Sunday's American League games:

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (+106, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays left-hander Mark Buehrle is coming off his shortest outing of the season, charged with eight runs on 12 hits over four innings in a 12-6 loss to the Angels.

Hot batting stat: Orioles OF Nick Markakis is a .412 career hitter with two home runs and five RBIs in 34 at-bats against Buehrle.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Toronto has won nine of Buehrle's last 11 home starts


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-210, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Detroit right-hander Max Scherzer is 0-2 in his previous three starts, allowing 13 runs over 16 innings in that span.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 1B Prince Fielder is 8-for-19 with a homer against Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 70 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow in from right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-0-1 in Guthrie's last seven road starts.


Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (-120, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Chris Sale is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 113 strikeouts and three complete games in 14 home starts.

Hot batting stat: Indians OF Ryan Raburn has homered twice in 16 at-bats versus Sale.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 90 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians are 5-0 in Zach McAllister's last five starts against teams with losing records.


Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (+197, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander David Price has surrendered just one home run over his last eight starts.

Cold batting stat: Twins OF Josh Willingham is 1-for-7 lifetime against Price.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: Tampa Bay is 7-1 in Price's last eight road starts against teams with losing records.


Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (+138, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Angels right-hander Jerome Williams is 1-4 in seven career starts against the Astros, though he has a respectable 3.92 ERA.

Cold batting stat: Astros OF Chris Carter is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts against Williams.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-1 in Williams' last six road starts.


Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-108, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker is 5-0 with a 2.90 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Rangers 3B Adrian Beltre is batting .190 with five strikeouts in 21 at-bats versus Parker.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Texas is 7-0 in starter Martin Perez's last seven starts against division foes.


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-165, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz was sensational in his return from the disabled list, tossing five shutout innings in a 2-0 win over Tampa Bay.

Hot batting stat: Yankees 2B Robinson Cano has 12 hits, including four doubles and a homer, in 29 at-bats against Buchholz.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 7-1 in starter Ivan Nova's last eight outings.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:41 p.m. ET Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday's National League games:

Miami Marlins at New York Mets (-163, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Mets right-hander Dillon Gee struggled in his last start against the Marlins, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings but earning the victory.

Cold batting stat: Marlins 3B Placido Polanco has just two hits - both singles - in 12 career at-bats against Gee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 12-3 in Gee's last 15 home starts.


San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-209, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is 7-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 14 home starts this season.

Hot batting stat: Padres OF Will Venable has only faced Teheran twice, but has hit a three-run homer against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Atlanta is 7-1 in Teheran's last eight starts against teams with losing records.


Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-199, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann had a strong outing in his previous start against Philadelphia, allowing two runs on seven hits over seven innings of a 3-2 victory.

Cold batting stat: Philadelphia SS Jimmy Rollins is 4-for-21 lifetime versus Zimmermann.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 9-3 in Washington's last 12 Sunday games.


Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-185, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates left-hander Francisco Liriano has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball, going 8-1 with a 1.21 ERA in nine starts there.

Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen has just one hit in 16 career at-bats against Cubs starter Travis Wood.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 18-6-3 in Wood's last 27 starts.


Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (+111, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds right-hander Bronson Arroyo fared well in his prior meeting with the Brewers, limiting them to three runs on seven hits over seven innings of a 6-3 win.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati OF Jay Bruce is 13-for-37 with three doubles, two home runs and nine RBIs all-time against Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with showers expected all afternoon. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Milwaukee has won seven of Gallardo's last nine Sunday starts.


San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-140, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Edinson Volquez is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance since joining the club from San Diego.

Cold batting stat: Giants OF Hunter Pence is 5-for-31 with 15 strikeouts against Volquez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-0 in Vogelsong's last six starts as a road underdog.


Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is 4-4 with a 2.43 ERA and just five home runs allowed in 70 innings since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks veterans Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra are a combined 3-for-39 against Chacin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 3 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-3 in Chacin's previous 11 starts against Arizona.


Interleague

Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (-199, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller is 8-3 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 home starts.

Cold batting stat: Entering Saturday night, St. Louis OF Carlos Beltran had just four home runs in 175 second-half at-bats.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: St. Louis has won nine of Miller's last 12 home starts.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:55 p.m. ET Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HSW Early Phones 4* NO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

145-97-2 run

21-14-3 run last 38 plays

pod browns game under 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Philly Godfather

•NFL [210] KC CHIEFS -1-110 100


Added Seattle -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Gee is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Zimmerman is 3-1, 3.29 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 2-1, 2.14 in his last three starts. Liriano is 4-2, 3.16 in his last seven starts.
-- Teheran is 3-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts. Arroyo is 5-1, 3.65 in his last seven starts.
-- Chacin is 2-1, 2.57 in his last four starts.

-- Ramirez is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three starts.

-- Guthrie is 2-0, 3.00 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 6-1, 3.12 in his last ten starts. Gonzalez is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two.
-- Sale is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 3-0, 2.50 in his last five starts. Perez is 6-1, 3.23 in his last seven.
-- Buchholz is 3-1, 1.89 in his last six starts. Nova is 4-0, 2.87 in his last eight.

Cold pitchers
-- Koehler is 0-2, 7.36 in his last three starts.
-- Cloyd is 0-2, 7.80 in his last three starts.
-- Smith is 0-2, 12.41 in four starts this season.
-- Delgado is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 0-1, 6.89 in his last three starts. Volquez is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts for the Dodgers.

-- Miller is 2-2, 4.11 in his last six starts.

-- Scherzer is 0-2, 7.31 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 0-3, 4.91 in his last three starts. Hernandez is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- McCallister is 0-2, 8.78 in his last three starts.
-- Williams is 2-3, 5.77 in last seven starts, but Angels won last three, scoring 24 runs. Clemens is 0-0, 4.66 in two starts this season.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Koehler 7-20; Gee 6-29
-- Cloyd 4-8; Zimmerman 5-29
-- Wood 5-29; Liriano 5-23 (1 of last 6)
-- Smith 2-4; Teheran 9-27
-- Arroyo 5-29; Gallardo 6-28
-- Chaciin 2-28 (0 of last 23); Delgado 6-16
-- Vogelsong 6-16 (1 of last 6); Volquez 11-29 (4 of last 6)

-- Ramirez 5-10; Miller 7-27

-- Guthrie 9-30 (3 of last 6); Scherzer 6-29
-- Gonzalez 6-25 (1 of last 12); Buehrle 7-30 (1 of last 7)
-- Price 6-23 (1 of last 10); Hernandez 2-9
-- McCallister 5-21 (0 of last 9); Sale 8-28 (0 of last 5)
-- Williams 6-22 (1 of last 8); Clemens 0-2
-- Parker 8-29 (0 of last 8); Perez 7-16
-- Nova 5-17 (1 of last 9); Buchholz 1-13

Totals
-- Six of last eight Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Washington games went over.
-- Nine of last ten Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Four of Mets' last five games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Colorado games.
-- 12 of last 16 San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven St Louis games.

-- Seven of last ten White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit home games went over.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Baltimore games.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Bronx games.
-- Six of last nine Texas games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Nine of last thirteen Minnesota games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Washington won nine of its last eleven games. Phillies won six of their last eight games.
-- Braves won four of their last six games.
-- Cincinnati won six of its last nine games.
-- Giants won five of their last six games.

-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games.

-- Indians won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Kansas City won five of its last seven games. Detroit won three of last four.
-- A's won seven of their last eight games.
-- Houston won four of its last five games. Angels won seven of last ten.

Cold teams
-- Cubs are 11-21 in their last 32 games.
-- Miami lost seven of their last nine games; Mets lost seven of last ten.
-- San Diego lost three of its last four games.
-- Milwaukee lost seven of its last nine home games.
-- Colorado lost eight of its last eleven games. Arizona lost four of last six.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Mariners lost five of their last six games.

-- White Sox lost 14 of their last 16 games overall, 11 in row vs Cleveland.
-- Toronto lost five of their last six home games. Orioles lost five of their last seven games overall.
-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last eight games. Twins lost eight of last ten.
-- Texas lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Bronx lost five of its last six games against Boston.

Umpires
-- Cin-Mil-- Sevne of last eight Carapazza games went over total.
-- Mia-NY-- Two of three HGibson (sub ump) games stayed under.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nelson games.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Under is 9-1-2 in last dozen Estabrook games.
-- SD-Atl-- Nine of last ten Cuzzi games stayed under total.
-- Col-Az-- Five of last six Randazzo games went over total.
-- SF-LA-- Underdogs won eight of last 12 Carlson games.

-- Sea-StL-- Underdogs won seven of last eight BWelke games.

-- Blt-Tor-- Four of last five Scott games went over the total.
-- NY-Bos-- Seven of last nine Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- A's-Tex-- Last three Holbrook games went over the total.
-- KC-Det-- Seven of last eight Hoye games stayed under total.
-- Cle-Chi-- Eight of last eleven Fairchild games went over total.
-- LA-Hst-- Seven of last eight Timmons games went over total.
-- TB-Min-- Underdogs won four of last six Porter games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: NFL Week 2's biggest line moves

Manning Bowl III headlines Week 2 of the NFL schedule. Peyton Manning is 2-0 versus his little brother but they last met almost three years ago when the Colts defeated the Giants 38-14 on Sept. 19, 2010.

We talk to oddsmakers about the flow of action coming in on some of Sunday's NFL games.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills - Open: +3

Action on this matchup has sharps and the betting public divided. The Bills are coming off a reasonably strong performance against the Patriots in Week 1, but succumbed to a 23-21 defeat. The Panthers hung around with the Seahawks in a 12-7 loss despite QB Cam Newton not performing at his best.

"Sharp and public money are not seeing eye-to-eye on one of the worst match ups of the weekend," an oddsmaker with BetDSI told Covers. "Sharps are backing Buffalo at +3 (-115) and the the public is all over Carolina at -3 (+100)."

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons - Open: 47, Move: 47.5, Move: 47

This one has the sharps and public divided as well. The Rams posted a 27-24 Week 1 victory over the Arizona Cardinals while the Falcons were dropped 23-17 by their NFC South rivals the New Orleans Saints.

"There is also a sharp versus public contrast on the St. Louis versus Atlanta match up with public coin backing the Over 47 and sharps coin backing the Under 47.5," an oddsmaker from BetDSI said.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants - Open: +6, Move: +5.5, Move: +4

The third edition of the Manning Bowl is set for Sunday afternoon and sharps are backing Eli as the home dog. The younger Manning finished 27-of-42 for 450 yards in New York's Week 1 loss to the Cowboys.

"Denver opened -6 and Tuesday got sharp play on the dog, so moved to 5.5," Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers. "Another wiseguy played the Giants +5.5 so moved to current number of 4."

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Open: +3

One matchup from this weekends schedule which sharps and the public can agree on is the Saints at the Bucs. Drew Brees and the Saints are coming off a big win at home versus the Falcons, and after a particularly dreadful performance against the Jets, nobody is giving the Bucs any love at all.

"Sharps hit the Saints -3 (-105) and the moneyline at -155 and the public is on the Saints too," says BetDSI.com. "There has been close to zero buy back on Tampa as of yet."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

NY Yankees at Boston

The Red Sox look to build on their 17-4 record in their last 21 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Boston is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Miami at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.810; NY Mets (Gee) 13.735
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+150); Over


Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Cloyd) 15.215; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.888
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-200); Under


Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.816; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.838
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+165); Over


Game 957-958: San Diego at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Smith); 14.646; Atlanta (Teheran) 16.051
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-210); Under


Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo); 16.616; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.987
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Over


Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.835; Arizona (Delgado) 14.954
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under


Game 963-964: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.635; LA Dodgers (Volquez) 14.262
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Under


Game 965-966: Kansas City at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.216; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.794
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-220); Over


Game 967-968: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.504; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.043
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-120); Under


Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 13.932; Minnesota (Hernandez) 14.378
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+185); Over


Game 971-972: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 16.230; White Sox (Sale) 13.618
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Under


Game 973-974: LA Angels at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 16.804; Houston (Clemens) 15.229
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Over


Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 16.386; Texas (Perez) 14.331
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Under


Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 15.195; Boston (Buchholz) 17.299
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over


Game 979-980: Seattle at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 14.202; St. Louis (Miller) 15.767
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

DENVER (219) AT NY GIANTS (220)
Latest Line: NY Giants +4; Total: 55

The Manning brothers meet again on Sunday afternoon when Eli's Giants try to avoid an 0-2 hole against Peyton's high-powered Broncos. Both siblings had huge season-opening performances, as Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and 7 TD in a 49-27 rout of the Ravens, while Eli Manning racked up 450 passing yards and four scores in a 36-31 loss to the Cowboys. He also accounted for half of his team’s six turnovers by tossing three interceptions. Peyton has won both previous NFL matchups between the brothers, prevailing 26-21 in 2006 and collecting three touchdown passes in a 38-14 blowout in 2010.
STATFOX FORECASTER: Denver 30, New York 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1095-825(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner SUN Over the total 56 Broncos/Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

SF/LA over 8

Nationals -1.5 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at Seattle

The Niners look to build on their 6-0-1 ATS record in their last 7 games in Week 2 of the season. San Francisco is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Niners favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/11)


Game 195-196: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.330; Philadelphia 127.063
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7 1/2); Under


Game 197-198: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.172; Baltimore 139.231
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under


Game 199-200: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.239; Houston 135.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+9 1/2); Over


Game 201-202: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; Indianapolis 131.300
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under


Game 203-204: Carolina at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.877; Buffalo 127.706
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over


Game 205-206: St. Louis at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.652; Atlanta 138.728
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over


Game 207-208: Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.717; Green Bay 139.816
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+8); Under


Game 209-210: Dallas at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 125.409; Kansas City 130.522
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Over


Game 211-212: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.521; Chicago 135.908
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Under


Game 213-214: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.723; Tampa Bay 130.322
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over


Game 215-216: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.590; Arizona 129.422
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Under


Game 217-218: Jacksonville at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.603; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Oakland by 5 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-5 1/2); Over


Game 219-220: Denver at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.089; NY Giants 138.686
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 55
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+5); Under


Game 221-222: San Francisco at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.811; Seattle 139.172
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 12

Montreal (4-6) @ BCLions (6-4)—Lions (-4.5) were upset 39-38 in Quebec three weeks ago, turning ball over seven times (-6) in game they led 21-7 at half, as backup QB Marsh led comeback win subbing for injured Calvillo. Home side has now won last five series games, with five of last six going over total; Alouettes lost four of last five visits here, losing last two years 43-1/43-10. Lions are 3-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 8-10-7-4-3 points; this is fourth year in row Montreal won first meeting; BC won rematch last three years, with all three wins by 21+ points. Montreal is 3-1 vs spread on road, 2-1 as road dog, with road losses by 11 at Calgary, 3 in Regina. Lions are -13 in turnovers the last six games, after being even in first four. Five of last seven games for both teams went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Los Angeles

The Mercury look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 601-602: Indiana at Connecticut (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.346; Connecticut 105.297
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Over


Game 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.497; Los Angeles 115.871
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 165 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2); Under


Game 605-606: New York at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 102.832; Washington 107.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 7 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7 1/2); Over


Game 607-608: Atlanta at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.563; San Antonio 107.561
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 151
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Insider colts

Perfect storm falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

Montreal at BC

The Alouettes look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Montreal is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+8 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/12)


Game 297-298: Montreal at BC (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.127; BC 115.010
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 48
Vegas Line: BC by 8 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+8 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Serrone

Eagles -6.5
Bears -5.5
Chiefs -2.5
Falcons -6
Giants +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Free Play Sunday Jacksonville/Oakland Over 39

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = BALTIMORE
3* = Green Bay
3* = Arizona
2* = N.Y. Giants
2* = "over" on Packers-Skins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

atslocks :

Tampa Bay +4
Jacksonville +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Night Football 49ers at Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

Both the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks opened their regular seasons with narrow victories. Now, the NFC West rivals looks to make it two straight as they face off in a marquee matchup Sunday night at Seattle's CenturyLink Field. The 49ers began defense of their NFC championship with a thrilling 34-28 victory over the Green Bay Packers, while the Seahawks make their home debut Sunday following a 12-7 triumph over the Carolina Panthers.

With the 49ers and Seahawks expected to battle for the division crown, the focus will be on the young quarterbacks. San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick was sensational in Week 1, throwing for a career-best 412 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed Packers defense. Seattle counterpart Russell Wilson wasn't nearly as strong against Carolina - but he didn't have to be, thanks to a stout Seattle defense that limited Carolina to 125 passing yards.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Seahawks opened as 3-point faves and that line has held steady this week. The total opened at 44.5 and has since moved down to 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 58 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from the SW toward the north end zone at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-0): Kaepernick and Wilson may be members of a limited NFL fraternity, but they probably won't be exchanging Christmas cards. When asked about his relationship with the Seattle signal caller earlier this week, Kaepernick responded by saying, "We only met on the (Madden commercial shoot) day," then explained that there was no relationship between the two. The 49ers were the only NFC West team with a winning road record last season (5-3).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-0): When it comes to home-field advantage, no team enjoyed a bigger one last season than the Seahawks. They finished 8-0 at CenturyLink in 2012 and were especially dominant in their final four home games of the campaign, outscoring opponents by a 148-33 margin over that stretch. The home effect was evident when San Francisco visited last season, as the noisy crowd forced Kaepernick to call two first-quarter timeouts.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the NFC West.
* Seahawks are 10-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 11-1 in 49ers last 12 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams split two meetings in 2012, with San Francisco prevailing 13-6 at home on Oct. 18 and Seattle cruising to a 42-13 win Dec. 23.

2. San Francisco WR Anquan Boldin, who erupted for 208 receiving yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut last weekend, has 74 catches 938 yards and two scores in 11 career games against the Seahawks.

3. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 100 yards in three straight versus the 49ers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tale of the Tape San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday Night Football will be a hotly contested matchup as the 49ers travel north to face the Seahawks. These are two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and the atmosphere in Seattle should be electric. We break down Sunday night's NFC West grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The 49ers marched all over the field in Week 1 against Green Bay totaling 494 yards in the 34-28 victory. The bulk of that was through the air, however, as Frank Gore and the 49er rushing attack was largely ineffective. But quite the aerial attack it was. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin looked like they had been playing together for years as Boldin hauled in 13 catches for 208 yards and TE Vernon Davis added a pair of touchdown catches.

The Seahawks only managed 12 points against the Carolina Panthers one week ago, but looked threatening at times. Until they got into the red zone that is. Seattle finished Week 1 0-for-3 inside the 20 and the lone touchdown came on a 43 yard pass play to Jermaine Kearse. Marshawn Lynch struggled to get anything going against Carolina, save for a 14 yard scamper. He finished with 43 yards on 17 carries.

Edge: San Francisco

Defense

Aaron Rodgers gave the 49er defense all they could handle as the Packers racked up 322 passing yards and 385 yards of total offense. The defensive unit did make some plays including an interception and a fumble recovery. LB NaVorro Bowman picked up where the 2012 season left off as he collected eight tackles and a pass deflection.

Seattle gets the pleasure of facing another athletic QB after containing Cam Newton in Week 1. The stingy Seahawk defensive squad kept Newton at bay for the most part, but struggled stopping the run. DeAngelo Williams rumbled his way to 86 yards on 17 carries for 5.1 ypc. The Seahawks only managed one sack on Cam Newton and must up the pressure against Kaepernick.

Edge: Seattle

Special teams

New 49ers kicker Phil Dawson was one of the top kickers one season ago and was 2-for-3 in Week 1. He did miss a 48-yard attempt on his first try in his new 49er uniform. The 49ers are looking for some stability on field goal attempts from 40 yards and out, so it wasn't the best of starts for the veteran.

Steven Hauschka went 2-for-2 in Week 1 with a 27 yard FG and a 40 yard FG. Hauscka is pretty reliable up to 50 yards. He was 23-for-23 from 49 yards and in one season ago, but just 1-for-4 beyond the 50.

Edge: Seattle

Notable quotable

“He’s really coming into his own as a leader, a quarterback and a player. We weren’t operating on all cylinders as an offense last week, but to be able to have the kind of day he had, to lead us to a victory at the end speaks volumes, 400-plus yards passing, no picks, three touchdowns, pretty good start for the season. And it’s just something that we've got to continue to improve on, and he’s the kind of guy that’s going to do that every day.” - 49ers OC Greg Roman on Colin Kaepernick

"He has this ability to change directions that makes him extremely quick and that suddenness is what gets him open but then it goes to the savvy that he has and the time he's spent working with Russell. Those guys really are relying on seeing things in the same fashion and being able to take advantage of the opportunities." - Seahawks coach Pete Carroll on WR Doug Baldwin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at ST LOUIS

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season, in the second half of the season
146-138 over the last 5 seasons. ( 51.4% 66.6 units )
48-59 this year. ( 44.9% 11.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at TEXAS

OAKLAND is 35-20 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: OAKLAND (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread
106-57 since 1997. ( 65.0% 43.3 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% 4.8 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at SAN ANTONIO

Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) terrible defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
83-47 since 1997. ( 63.8% 0.0 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% 0.0 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins
193-114 since 1997. ( 62.9% 67.6 units )
5-8 this year. ( 38.5% -3.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NFL WASHINGTON at GREEN BAY

Play Under - Any team against the total off a road loss, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )

NFL SAN DIEGO at PHILADELPHIA

Play On - Any team vs the money line (SAN DIEGO) off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog
21-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 67.7% 0.0 units )

NFL CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE

Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CLEVELAND) after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

Soccer Premier League
West Ham United @Southampton
Game Time: Sunday, 11:00 AM EST
At first sight, the current odds giving Southampton a ML line of -120 (55% chances to win) might seem a bit overrated for a team that has just four points in the league, as many as West Ham, however on this particular matchup, I actually think the difference between these two teams is even bigger than the odds are currently showing.

West Ham under Sam Allardyce are playing on his traditional kick n rush style. They are averaging just 44.7% ball possession in the league, even though they are yet to face a top teams this season. The problem is that West Ham has so many injuries on offense that they are almost inoffensive right now. Andy Carroll is likely to be out until the new year, their most creative player Joe Cole is also out, same with Stuart Downing and George McCartney! Therefore, West Ham tried to find a striker in the trade deadline and they signed the free agent Mladen Petric, but he isn't match fit yet and so, he is out for today's game as well. So, no surprise that they had just 1 shot on target on their last two games! Things won't be a lot different today and I expect them to heavily struggle on offense once again.

On the other side, Southampton will be one of the teams that will continue improving as the season goes by, as they'll need some time to gel together after so many signings. Still, Rickie Lambert and Osvaldo give the team an offensive quality that West Ham can only dream about right now. So, I expect West Ham to take a quite defensive approach today and only try to score on a counter move or set piece, but that shouldn't be a problem for Southampton, as the team under Mauricio Pochettino has become a "continental" team, who likes to take control of the ball (53%, 67% and 58% ball possession on the first three games), so they won't have problems in controlling the game and getting some scoring chances. Southampton won't have problems in having the ball on their attacking midfield, with Osvaldo and Lambert creating chances for them to score. This will contrast a lot with the non-existent West Ham offense that will also face an underrated Southampton defense that has allowed only two goals in three games.

Therefore, I give Southampton a 60% chances of winning today, something that gives us enough value to take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Southampton ML @ -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase for the Cup starts Sunday in Chicago
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
GEICO 400

Sunday, September 15 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Chicagoland Speedway – Joliet, IL
The Chase for the Cup is finally here as 12 drivers being a 10-race circuit to determine this year’s points champion. The Chase opens in Chicago on Sunday, marking the first daytime race in four weeks. Chicagoland Speedway is an intermediate track that was completed in 2000. Its configuration is a 1½-mile tri-oval shaped track with 18-degree banking on the turns, 11-degree banking on the 2,400-foot frontstretch and five-degree banking on the backstretch, which measures 1,700 feet. Brad Keselowski is the defending champion of this race.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 9-to-2
Matt Kenseth 6-to-1
Kasey Kahne 7-to-1
Kyle Busch 7-to-1
Carl Edwards 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 10-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-to-1
Joey Logano 15-to-1
Jeff Gordon 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Denny Hamlin 20-to-1
Ryan Newman 25-to-1
Brian Vickers 30-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Juan Montoya 75-to-1
Mark Martin 75-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - In seven career races at Chicago, Bowyer has finished outside the top-10 only once, back in 2008 (22nd place). He's also raced very well on other 1.5-mile tracks recently, finishing 5th at Kansas, 8th at Charlotte and 3rd and Kentucky before engine failure ended his day in Atlanta in a race he led for 48 laps. Bowyer has yet to taste victory in 2013, but with a hefty eight top-5 finishes this season, he’s our pick to finally take home the checkered flag on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (6/1) - The 1.5-mile track specialist has won two of the past four races at this distance, taking the checkered flag both in Kansas and Kentucky as part of his five wins in 2013. Kenseth has yet to win in 12 starts at Chicagoland, but he does have four top-7 finishes including two runner-ups at this track. He's also put himself in great starting position in the past two races at this venue, winning a pole and starting from the No. 3 spot which propelled him to a combined 48 laps led. The payoff isn't too favorable, but Kenseth is still worthy of a good-sized wager for Sunday's race.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - Newman may be fortunate to join the Chase for the Cup group, but he is determined to show he belongs among these dozen drivers. Not only has he placed eighth or better in three of his past four starts at this track, but Newman tested at Chicagoland earlier this year. He's also been strong in the past four 1.5-mile tracks with an average finish of 9.8, most recently coming in fifth place in Atlanta. This was part of his four top-5's in his past seven starts. At 25-to-1, Newman represents the best betting value on the board here.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He may not be able to defend his points title, but Keselowski has a great chance to repeat his Chicagoland victory on Sunday. In addition to that win, he also placed fifth at Chicagoland Speedway in 2011. And although he has finished poorly in his past three races (27.3 average finish), taking himself out of Chase contention, Keselowski has qualified pretty well lately with top-12 starts in seven of his past eight races. With no more pressure to worry about his place in the standings, the No. 2 car has no reason to play it safe and should be near the front of the pack all day on Sunday. With double-digit odds, he's worthy of a small wager.

Aric Almirola (100/1) - As longshots go, Almirola appears to be the only triple-digit wager worth looking at this weekend. He's placed among the top-15 in two of the past four races on 1.5-mile tracks and he did test at Chicago in late August. Although he placed 17th in his lone Chicagoland start last year, remember that Almirola started second and led for three laps. He's also placed among the top-20 drivers in each of his past 10 starts this season that didn't end in a crash. Don't spend more than one unit on the 29-year-old, but the jackpot here is too substantial to completely ignore Almirola.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Washington Nationals -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 77-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 77-86-2

Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs -155 over Dallas Cowboys
(System Record: 14-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 14-8

Soccer Crusher
Atletico Rafaela + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 454-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 454-393-61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

Matchup Line Pick Pick%
WAS @ GB 49 Over 59.4
MIA @ IND 42.5 Over 57.1
SD @ PHI 54.5 Under 56.9
DAL @ KC 46.5 Over 56.3
DEN @ NYG 55 Under 55.9
MIN @ CHI 42 Over 54.7
CLE @ BAL 43.5 Under 53.8
NO @ TB 47 Over 53.6
TEN @ HOU 43 Under 53.5
SF @ SEA 44.5 Over 53.2
CAR @ BUF 44 Over 53.2
DET @ ARI 47.5 Under 51.8
STL @ ATL 47.5 Under 51.2
JAC @ OAK 39.5 Over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

balt 27 cle 13
hou 28 ten 12
gb 31 wash 20
chi 27 min 16
sea 24 sf 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn
7-8-1 last week
0-1 last best bet

Denver
Philly
Browns
Houston
Miami
Panthers-best bet
Atl
Packers
Kc
Minny
No
Det
Jags
49ers

Cinny

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club Selections 15/09/2013
NFL:
#203 Carolina -3
#205 St. Louis +5.5
#214 Tampa Bay +3
#220 NY Giants +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gary Meyers
Upset Special

Titans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Betting Professor Original NFL 9/15/13

209. Dallas Cowboys +3.5* (the line is +3 but since nearly 16% of all NFL games land on 3 the system recommends buying a 1/2 point in this scenario)

2013 Sports Betting Professor NFL Original System
System (3-gm chase): 2-0
Overall Picks: 3-1, +1.9 units
System Plays straight up: 2-0, +2.0 units
'Other' Plays straight up: 1-1, -0.1 units
Fade all plays straight up: 1-3, -2.3 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockys Winners Circle Newsletter

SYSTEMS PLAYS OF THE WEEK
PLAY ANY NFL ROAD DOGS +7 or more on GRASS, coming in off a road game as dog
48-9 ATS last 57 (84% WINS)
PLAY MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7 at Chicago

OVER - UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
PLAY UNDER when teams are favored –3 or less vs non divisional opponents and this
weeks posted total is (40) or more—91% LAST 32
ARIZONA—DETROIT - UNDER

NEAR PERFECT
SUPER SYSTEM PLAY
PLAY AGAINST ANY NFL NON DIVISIONAL HOME TEAM FAVORITE (-10) OR LESS, off a Sunday underdog outright loss of less than 39 points, vs an opponent who is off an OUTRIGHT underdog loss.
THIS WEEKS SELECTION IS
JACKSONVILLE +7 at Oakland Raiders.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP

KEY SELECTIONS

4* New Orleans by 13 over TAMPA BAY

3* HOUSTON by 16 over Tennessee

OTHER SELECTION

2* Detroit by 12 over ARIZONA

SYSTEM
Go against a road team that allowed 10 or less in a road win.
2010-2012 12-4-1 75%
THIS WEEKS PLAY:
against: MIAMI
PLAY ON: INDIANAPOLIS

NFL OVER/UNDERS
Our Over/Under Section is in its 26th season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. *est line.

3* DAL/KC - Under 43*

3* STL/ATL - Under 47

3* DET/ARZ - Over 47

2* CAR/BUF - Under 44’

2* DEN/NYG - Over 45*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Powerplays

pro-football

3* ravens 27 browns 18

3* panthers 21 bills 14

no play: Falcons 24 rams 15
4* falcons/rams - under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

3★ BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over San Diego by 1
The Philadelphia Ducks, err Eagles, return home off Monday night’s
Washington whipping, making Chip Kelly’s debut a smashing
success. Next order of business for the mighty ducks (damn, there’s
that Chip notion, again) is trying to tame a team from the wild,
wild west, a task at which the Eagles have failed miserably in the
past, going just 2-12-1 ATS in games off a SUATS win against the
AFC West. Then again this is not the same Andy Reid team that
Philadelphians had come to love-hate-love in the past. On the down
side, the Chargers will look to regroup after blowing a 28-7 lead to
the Texans. That may prove diffi cult against the frenetic pace of this
fast-forward foe. No, we’re not about to jump off the Kelly Express
anytime soon. Not with Philly 10-2 SUATS in games after Redskins
rumbles. And not with home teams standing 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS
in non-division clashes off a Monday night divisional upset win the
last eight years. The Kelly love-fest continues in the city of Brotherly
Love. The clincher: San Diego is 0-7 SUATS in its fi rst trip east
the last seven seasons.

4★ BEST BET
Minnesota over CHICAGO by 6
The Bears got what they wanted on opening day… and the
Vikings did not. Hence, an ideal setup for Minnesota in this already
pivotal Game Two matchup. Our well-oiled machine agrees, too,
noting that since 2000 new NFL coaches in a divisional Game Two
matchup are just 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS when off a win, including
2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS when the foe is off a loss. Minny’s mighty
6-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or less points against opponents off
a win fi ts, too, as does its 4-0 ATS record in games after allowing
28 or more points during the fi rst four games of the season. New
head coach Marc Trestman won’t like hearing this, but the Bears
are 1-8-1 ATS laying points at home off a home game. Nor the fact
that his quarterback, Jay Cutler, is just 5-15-1 ATS as a home favorite
off a win, including 2-10-1 ATS versus an opponent off a loss. The
Clincher: Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier is 10-4-1 ATS as
a dog in games against an opponent off a win, including 6-0
SUATS the last six.

5★ BEST BET
NY GIANTS over Denver by 7
Manning Bowl III kicks off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford
this Sunday. If you haven’t got a ticket, you can likely forget about
it (word is seats at midfi eld are going for over $6000 apiece). And
if you don’t tune in this week you may have to wait until the next
regularly scheduled rematch in 2017 (when Peyton will be 41). For
now it’s Eli’s turn to shift the spotlight back on himself, and if hunger
and motivation are deciding edges, then the Giants are in good
hands. For openers, Eli took it on the chin in both previous meetings
against Peyton – a 26-21 loss at Giants Stadium in 2006 and a 38-14
shellacking in Indianapolis in 2010. Today, Eli catches Peyton off a
career-best 7 TD effort in a huge season-opening playoff revenge win
over Baltimore, while the G-Men limp home off an agonizing 5-point
loss at Dallas (New York dominated on the fi eld, winning the game
by 147 yards in a 6-turnover marred effort). Eli brings a sterling 19-12
SU and 17-13-1 ATS mark at home in games off a loss, including 4-0
SUATS the last four, in his career. On the fl ip side, non-division road
teams in Game Two off a SUATS win in which they scored 40 or more
points are 1-8 ATS when facing a foe off a loss. Oh brother, this one
goes to the kid. The Clincher: Eli Manning is 33-21-2 ATS as a dog
in the NFL, including 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS the last ten.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASES

OAKLAND over Jacksonville
RATING: 3

MINNESOTA over Chicago
RATING: 3

ARIZONA over Detroit
RATING: 4

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
RATING: 5

TAMPA BAY over New Orleans
RATING: 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER

BEST BET
*BALTIMORE over CLEVELAND by 19
Optimism means very little when accompanied by a game plan that calls for
Brandon Weeden to throw the ball 59 times. If the Browns have brains they’ll
be looking to balance out the offense this week with a healthier dose of Trent
Richardson, who just happens to be their best offensive player, but will the run
game be effective against the Ravens? Sure, Peyton Manning threw for seven
touchdowns, so the Broncos didn’t need to run the ball against Baltimore,
but personnel and logic dictate that the Ravens front seven should be able to
corral the Browns enough to give Joe Flacco time to throw the ball. To who?
It almost seems like Baltimore’s down to Torrey Smith and the three guys
from your local YMCA catching the ball, but the defending champions have a
few extra days to prepare for a divisional opponent they’ve played pretty well
in recent years. The one exception would be the seven-point “squeaker” in
week four of last year, but we’ll cut them some slack for playing four games
in seventeen days. Roger Goodell would like to welcome you to the new, safer
NFL. Based on the opening line, a good team comes home to hunker down
with an extra two days between games, and lay less than a touchdown off an
embarrassing defeat.
BALTIMORE, 35-16.

RECOMMENDED
ST. LOUIS over *ATLANTA by 3
A 6-point head start with Jeff Fisher as your coach? That’s usually a nice
thing to have. Atlanta scored only 17 points against a schemed-up Saints defense, was just 2-for-10 on third down. Atlanta loves to hog the clock, but had
the football for only 24:59 vs. the Saints. Can the Falcons re-claim the clock
against the Rams? Possibly. They are back to playing in their own noisy dome
instead of New Orleans’, and the Rams are now playing in somebody else’s
noisy dome instead of their own. But the Rams have a better defensive front
than the Saints, and the St. Louis offense will welcome back RB Isiah Pead,
who sat out the 27-24 win against Arizona with a suspension, leaving 20
carries to Daryl Richardson of Abilene Christian College. Rattle the Falcons’
QB Matt Ryan early, and Matty Ice melts a little bit. The Rams sacked Carson
Palmer four times and if they average four per game this season, they’ll lead
the NFL in that department when the season is over. Their defense can struggle against good play-fakes but at least they have a coordinator this season
and it’s not like the Falcons have a lock-down defense.
ST. LOUIS, 27-24.

BEST BET
*KANSAS CITY over DALLAS by 14
This Dallas defense can probably be beaten with a decent, grinding running
game that doesn’t fumble the ball. It’s in the NFL textbook in the Chapter,
“How to Beat Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2.” Unfortunately for the New York alleged
Football Giants, they don’t have a good run-blocking line, and their 2012 #1
draft choice, who is now their #1 running back, can’t hold onto the football
or block well on pass plays. Also, the Giants’ offensive coordinator must have
been campaigning for Moron Club President calling screen passes for interceptions. The Cowboys were gunning for the Giants, got a series of gifts
from them (6 turnovers!), yet still struggled to put them away. Their coaching staff doesn’t know the Kansas City personnel. They see KC once every
four years. Tony Romo against an unfamiliar defense? No, thanks! Andy Reid,
first-season Chiefs head coach? He knows the Dallas personnel. He faced
the Cowboys twice a year with the Eagles. With the Chiefs, he has a fair-togood rushing team that didn’t have to show much after jumping out to a lead
against sad-sack Jacksonville last Sunday. He has to feel that the KC rushing
attack can dominate the proceedings, given the Dallas defensive transition.
Brandon Carr, ex-Chief cornerback now a Cowboy, will be forced to play zone
D and the run instead of press coverage, his strength.
KANSAS CITY, 31-17.

RECOMMENDED
*TAMPA BAY over NEW ORLEANS by 6
The Bucs will be everyone’s favorite “What a bunch of losers!” team this week
after failing to beat the clownie Jets via overall stupidity. But the Jets were
the home dog with the better defense. What happens when you go against
the home dog with the better defense, especially if you’re Sports Reporter
and you usually like home dogs with the better defense? You don’t win. Here,
the Bucs are a double-revenge home dog with the better defense. So we’ll
get back on that track. Their offense faces a softer defensive front than last
week. RB Doug Martin should be a producer, instead of being negated. Drew
Brees and the New Orleans offense leave the comfort of their home-dome,
and the Saints’ defense has to deal with the heat and humidity outdoors, instead of having a 12th man (crowd noise) on their side in a climate-controlled
environment. For Tampa, losing a non-conference road game isn’t the end of
the world. The Bucs were –5 in Turnover Ratio in the 41-0 second loss to the
Saints last season. Not cleaning up that mess and not getting revenge against
this division rival would be the end of the world.
TAMPA BAY, 27-21.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET
*Arizona over Detroit by 18
Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush give Detroit lots of firepower.
The Lions have an excellent defensive front, too. What the Lions don't have under
Jim Schwartz is discipline, mental strength and the poise to win a tough road game
against an improved Arizona squad. Arizona has won nine of its last 13 home
games. The Cardinals' defense is underrated. Their defensive front can apply pressure and their secondary has playmakers. Offensive whiz Bruce Arians is the new
coach. Carson Palmer gives the Cardinals their best quarterback since Kurt Warner.
The combination of Arians, Palmer and All-World wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald
can take advantage of a porous Lions secondary. It's not just Fitzgerald anymore
either. The Cardinals have two other good wideouts, Andre Roberts and a muchimproved Michael Floyd. Arizona's ground attack is improved, too, with Rashard
Mendenhall as the lead back. The Cardinals are better coached than the Lions and
are home on grass. The Lions are a turf team. Playing on grass slows them up. The
Cardinals opened with victories against Seattle, New England and Philadelphia last
year. They should have won their opener this past Sunday, but did get the cover
against St. Louis. The Lions and Cardinals met last year in Week 15 in the desert
when Arizona was in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. The Cardinals ended
their loss streak by blasting the Lions, 38-10. The Lions have shown their lack of
guts losing 10 of their last 13 away matchups. Their only three road victories during this span were against Jacksonville and Philadelphia last year and Oakland by
one point in 2011.
ARIZONA 35-17.

***BEST BET
St. Louis over *Atlanta by 10
No team has ever won back to back NFC South Division titles. Defending champion Atlanta may put an end to that streak. Right now, though, the Falcons aren't
showing enough to end that jinx. The Falcons remain soft on defense. They had
just 29 sacks last year and only got to Drew Brees twice in last Sunday's loss to the
Saints. Tony Gonzalez is another year older and Roddy White is playing with a
high ankle sprain that limits his effectiveness. The Falcons' worst problem, though,
is an offensive line that remains a work in progress with several new starters. The
Rams tied for the lead league in sacks last year with 51. Robert Quinn, an emerging star, sacked Carson Palmer three times last week. The Rams have gotten a lot
tougher under Jeff Fisher. They are more poised, too. The Rams proved they can
beat elite teams last year knocking off Seattle and not losing to the 49ers in two
meetings. They are very familiar with the Falcons' newest tailback former Ram
Steven Jackson. St. Louis is at its best in an underdog role covering 12 of the past
15 times for 80 percent. Fisher improved St. Louis' defense last year during his first
season. Now he's working on the offense, which has gotten a lot faster. The Rams
put up 27 points on a solid Arizona defense despite not playing well. Sam Bradford
is ready to turn the corner now that he has the fastest wideouts and tight ends he's
ever had during his four years with the Rams. Tight end Jared Cook, Chris Givens
and rookie Tavon Austin are all potential breakout stars. Look for the Rams to be
much sharper that they were in Week 1.
ST. LOUIS 38-28.

**PREFERRED
*Baltimore over Cleveland by 17
Supposedly the Browns have better talent this year. Supposedly Brandon Weeden
has better coaching so he'll be improved. Supposedly Trent Richardson is ready to
achieve superstar status. Right now, however, the Browns remain … well the
Browns and that is dreadful. The Ravens have owned the Browns beating them 10
times in a row, covering 70 percent of the games. Only three of the last 10 have
been decided by a touchdown or less. The defending Super Bowl champions have
had extra days to stew after being humiliated by Petyon Manning on national television last Thursday. Baltimore's defense is much better than it showed against a
hot Manning. It has more quickness and pass rushing potential with Elvis
Dumervil added and Terrell Suggs healthy. The Ravens defense can dominate the
Browns' pop-gun attack, which won't have their most talented wide receiver, Josh
Gordon, until Week 3 when his suspension is lifted. Weeden looked better during
preseason firing three touchdown passes without an interception. But then at
home against Miami in Week 1 he reverted back to rookie form throwing three
interceptions. Cleveland's offensive line completely caved in against Miami. That's
not a good sign when going into Baltimore's intimidating home field. Joe Flacco
has fired 13 touchdown passes with just two interceptions during his last five
games, all against defenses better than Cleveland's.
BALTIMORE 27-10.

*Seattle over San Francisco by 12
It's not just historically that the losing Super Bowl team has problems the following season. We're fading San Francisco in this spot because the 49ers have wide
receiver injuries, are going against a great secondary and trying to win at the loudest and toughest outdoor road venue in the league. The Seahawks are 10-0 SU, 9-
1 ATS in their last 10 home games, including going 8-0 at home last season covering all but one of their matchups at CenturyLink Field. Their most impressive
victory was a 42-13 thrashing of the 49ers, San Francisco's worst loss of the season. Kept under wraps by Pete Carroll during the first half of last season, Russell
Wilson has completed 65 percent of his throws during the last 14 games with a 25-
to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also added five rushing scores. Colin
Kaepernick has been hot, too, but he's without his No. 1 wideout (Michael
Crabtree) and No. 3 wide receiver (Mario Manningham). The 49ers were hit harder than Seattle in free agency, too, losing star safety Dashon Goldson. Kaepernick
is a dangerous runner with a big arm. Accuracy-wise, though, he's a work in
progress. The Seahawks have big hitting safeties and excellent cover cornerbacks.
Their run defense is stout, too. Marshawn Lynch is in his prime, while the 49ers'
Frank Gore is going downhill.
SEATTLE 28-16.

OVER/UNDER

**OVER: St. Louis at Atlanta – The Falcons can score against any team,
while the Rams have upgraded their weapons and are used to playing inside a dome
setting, which enhances their new found speed.

UNDER: Miami at Indianapolis – The Colts have an underrated defense
that can match up well to a pedestrian Miami offense, while Dolphins star pass
rusher Cameron Wake can pressure Andrew Luck.

UNDER: Minnesota at Chicago – The Vikings are outdoors where their
lack of a vertical passing game is exposed even more, while Jay Cutler is still picking up the Bears' new offense and facing a fierce Minnesota pass rush headed by Jared Allen.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

80 Dime Winner
# 5 out of 6!

Baltimore Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al DeMarco

15 Dime NFL Winner # 3 in a Row

Bounce Back Lock

Atlanta Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

400 Eagles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges late selections

September 15, 2013Consensus Selections from Handicappers Around the Nation
VERY STRONG: NONE

STRONG: Baltimore -7 Cleveland

REGULAR: Miami +3 Indy
Arizona +2 Detroit
NY Giants +4 Denver
Green Bay -7 Washington
Seattle -3 San Fran
Miami--Indy UNDER 43

NORM'S LATE THOUGHTS: The more I look at Philly and San Diego the more this appears to be a real shootout. SD's total breakdown defensively last week against a less threatening Houston team signals some weakness on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Philly's "D" also struggled late versus Washington. So:
Take Philly---San Diego OVER 54 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony del Cards + points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vince taylor Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phil v

Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bob balfe

baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sixth sense

over det
pitt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo
1-2 last week -Best Bets

Giants
Bills
Atl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HSW early phone

no saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik Best Bet Total
215 DET/216 ARI Over 47.5 Hilton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik
Afternoon Best Bet
Miami +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

50 saints
25 raiders
15 Carolina
5 texans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin O'Neill

miami
tampa bay
jacksonville
new york giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ats insiders club

Giants +4
Green Bay -7
Chicago /Minnesota over 41.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had the splits on Saturday winning with the Braves -$185/Padres and losing with the Dodgers -$165/Giants both for $100.

On Sunday Ben lee likes one of the "Chalkest" games on the board the Braves -$210/Padres.

"Mr Chalk" is 8-5 -$80 for the week and 96-59 +$487 for the 2013 MLB season.

For Sunday Ben lee likes

Chiefs -3/Cowboys

Packers -7/Redskins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Consensus Hotline
web page game of the day
Titans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

Stl Louis +7 60.3%
Mia +3 59.4%
Oak -5.5 58.4%

Half bets but higher than 57%
Sf 3 57.1%
Ari 1.5 57%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 47.5 - Rams/Falcons

100* Saints -4

50* Reds -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Real Animal Sports

free play 2* Arizona +2

I don’t trust Detroit as a road favorite. The Lions are 17-63 straight-up since 2003 on the road covering just two of 10 spots in this role during that time. Last year just 2-6 on the highway. Last week Carson Palmer threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns against St. Louis, who was tied for the league lead in sacks last year with 52. The Cardinals have a nice 3-pack of receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd. They combined for 20 receptions last week. Catch this system/trend: The Lions are 0-11-1 ATS since 1994 within three-points of a pick-em following a home win. Hopefully former Detroit QB Drew Stanton, now with the Cardinals, can offer some advice to the Arizona brass concerning the Lions’ playbook. Arizona has a very athletic group of linebackers so it won’t be easy for Reggie Bush to make an impact. Their secondary is loaded with playmakers. Detroit is a dome team on carpet. This one is on grass and in severe heat. Last year in this building Arizona destroyed Detroit 38-10 and the Cardinals at the time were in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. Detroit is 3-10 SU on the road while Arizona is 9-4 their last 13 at home. The road victories for Detroit in their last 13? That would be Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Oakland by a point in 2011. Arizona wins this game straight-up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll Sports

2* Vikings @ Bears - Over 42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ats Lock Club

6 Dallas
5 Baltimore
4 Buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

NFL

Carolina (-2) at Buffalo 1:00 PM EST
2* Carolina -2

Rookie HC Marrone teamed with rookie QB Manuel to nearly eat the whole pie hosting New England last week. That would have been MM, MM good! Bill backers still got the cash in a game closer than most experts predicted. The reality is that New England both outrushed and out-passed Buffalo by a combined 147 yards, controlled the ball for 38 minutes, but did commit 3 key turnovers. Carolina had a chance for the upset of the day, but fell short in a fourth quarter drive that resulted in a 12-7 home loss to Seattle. Big take-away from that contest was the Carolina 124-70 overland edge against a team in Seattle with a Superbowl worthy defense. Since I’m a Panther backer in the early going, I’m going to look for them to control festivities overland again this week with an offense that rushed 124/5.0 against the Buffalo defense that allowed 158/4.5. My money is on the fact that the Panthers get the money with their dominance at the line of scrimmage.

St Louis at Atlanta (-6) 1:00 PM EST
2* Atlanta -6

This is risky business knowing that under second year HC Fisher, St Louis is 7-1 ATS away and 11-3 ATS as dog. But they were outrushed 86-67 by Arizona of all people in the opener, barely holding on for a 27-24 win, no cover. Did they miss RB Jackson? Not for long, as they will see him today; he’s now suiting up for the Falcons. He got little chance to perform in the aerial shootout that was game 1 in New Orleans. You see, Atlanta chose to only rush the ball 14 times; that’s a sure recipe for failure, as we know that NFL teams who run the ball 22 or fewer times are an 86% play against. Now back home, look for redemption from an Atlanta team who has been as good as anybody in the nation following a defeat. In fact, HC Smith is 18-4 ATS/loss. Along with a 21-11 ATS mark as HF (to balance out the road success of Fisher), we’ll look for redemption to lead this victory. Expect RB Jackson to get more touches against his ex-mates, and balance the offense more than last week, and open up the airways for QB Ryan and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

Washington at Green Bay (-7) 1:00 PM EST
2* Green Bay -7

Bad scheduling spot for the Skins, who won’t have many good feelings about themselves following the Monday night home debacle against the rival Eagles. They were outrushed 49/263 to 18/47 with the 33-27 final being far from representative of how the game was played. Don’t expect host Green Bay to be a willing participant in allowing the Skins to fly through the back door. Either RGIII does not have/did not show his former mobility or HC Shanahan is keeping him under wraps in the early going. In any event, they are not trustworthy in this situation despite the fact that Shanahan is 21-14 ATS as dog, and 15-9 ATS away. Far prefer Green Bay, who comes home in search of redemption after allowing San Francisco to put up 34 points and 494 yards in a 34-28 defeat of the Packers. Having just faced the Wild Kaep, this defense will be well prepared for the poor man’s version that is currently RGIII. You’d be plenty rich if you knew Green Bay HC McCarthy was going to be 72-48 ATS in his first 120 games; that includes a recent mark of 18-8 ATS home chalk. Expect RB Lacy to take a bigger role in balancing the offense, allowing QB Rodgers to show why he is clearly the better signal caller in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll Sports

2* Vikings/Bears - Over 42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Jax +6
Cowboys +3
Browns +6.5
Vikes +6

Under Reds/ Milw
Under Boston/ NYY

[golden contender]

Sunday card has three 5* NFL Plays including the Game of the Month and Top 19-0 Total in the late game, all from Perfect Power systems. NFL is 34 games over. 500 the past 3+ seasons, there are 5 plays in all. Saturday cashes big led by 6* winners on UCF and the over in the Alabama game. Free System Play + Contact info below

On Sunday the free NFL System Club Play is on Tampa Bay +4 Over New Orleans. Game 214 at 4;05 eastern. The Bucs should be 1-0 and they know it. A bad penalty cost them the game last week and now they must make amends against a New Orleans team that held of late goal line stand taking down Atlanta last week. Division home dogs like Tampa off a road favored loss at -3 or more have been solid through the years and are covering at an 80% clip in week 2. Tampa is also 6-0 ats in the first month of the season with division revenge and they were smoked 41-0 last time they played the Saints. New Orleans has failed to cover 16 of 9 times starting in week 2 games vs teams who are winless and are 1-8 to the spread in the first month of the season as a favorite of 3 or more vs teams under.500. Look for Tampa Bay to get the cover. Sunday card has 5 Tremendous NFL plays including a 37-1 System Game of the Month and a 19-0 total. NFL is 34 games over. 500 the past 3+ years. Saturday card cashed big led by 6* College Winner and top Totals play. Jump on End the week big on Sunday. For the free NFL System Club Play take Tampa Bay +the 4 points. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER STREAKERS

under streakers
under 8 atlanta/san diego
under 7 pitt/cubs
under 8 kc/detroit
under 8.5 nyy/bost

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9x Sports

(MLB) 3:05PM OAKLAND ATHLETICS +104

(NFL) 1:00PM INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Root

Pinnacle Baltimore
Millionaire Seattle
Upset club Minnesota and Giants

[The Broker]

Empacadores de Greenbay -7

Osos de Chicago -5.5

Halcones de Atlanta -5

Panteras de Carolina -3

49´de San Francisco/Halcones Marinos de Seattle Under 44.5

Suerte

The Broker

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cappersports nfl

Green Bay -8
carolina -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkosky Milan

NFL: 5-4 (+60 Units)

10* ATLANTA FALCONS -6
10* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7½
10* DOLPHINS / COLTS UNDER 43½
10* HOUSTON TEXANS -9
10* REDSKINS / PACKERS UNDER 50½
10* BROWNS / RAVENS UNDER 44
10* LIONS / CARDINALS OVER 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Rivers 400,00* Total: Matt Rivers Sunday's Selection ...

Your Sunday 400,000♦ Winner: Go with the UNDER when Green Bay hosts Washington today. It's priced anywhere between 49 1/2 and 50 1/2 points as of 7:15 AM Eastern - and I'm taking the UNDER.


Both Green Bay and Washington were unable to run the ball effectively in their opening week losses against San Fran and Philly, respectively, and both were shredded defensively. Consequently I think you'll see the Packers make a concerted effort to get rookie Eddie Lacy a solid 20-25 carries today while the Redskins do the same with Alfred Morris, who was bottled up by the Eagles front line.


As for each team's defense, the Packers were powerless against San Francisco's passing attack while Washington was picked apart in every phase of the game by Chip Kelly's up-tempo attack. Again, I believe you find both teams looking for a renewed commitment defensively.


Expect inclement weather to play a big factor in this game as well. There is a 70 percent chance of rain at kickoff in Green Bay and it remains that percentage at 1 PM local time before dipping to 60 percent by 2 PM local and 50 percent by 3 PM when it should be finishing up. I cannot for the life of me think Washington is going to risk RG3's knee on too many read options, again opting to run Morris instead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

SUNDAY, September 15, 2013

NFL -- 1:00 pm ET
2 Units
UNDER 46.5 Dallas at Kansas City

Dallas has offensive line issues and QB Tony Romo has bruised ribs. Both
spell trouble against a very good KC defense. Given the o-line problems &
Romo's injury, I expect Dallas to rely on the running game with DeMarco
Murray & quick passes to keep Romo from getting knocked around. KC's
offense is led by QB Alex Smith, so expect lots of running plays & short
passes from the Chiefs offense as well. The Dallas defense, a Cover 2
scheme under Monte Kiffin, is designed to keep everything in front of them.
Translation: Two deep safeties to keep from getting beat deep. This
generally forces teams to throw underneath, leading to longer,
time-consuming drives. Not that KC has a potent, quick-strike offense
anyway. This line has to be an over-reaction to Dallas putting up 36 points
on the Giants (points are common in that series) & the fact that KC put up
28 points in Jacksonville. But KC got 7 of those points on an INT return &
PAT. They also benefitted from a weak Jags offense that managed no points &
only 178 total yards of offense. Bottom line: I don't see one good reason
why these two teams will combine to score 47 or more points. Normal 2-Unit
bet on UNDER 46.5.

NFL -- 8:30 pm ET
3 Units (MAX BET)
UNDER 44.5 San Francisco at Seattle

These two teams are among the best in the entire NFL. They just happen to
be NFC West rivals, which means I expect a very tightly contested game. The
49ers offense torched the Packers defense last Sunday, but that was in San
Francisco. The Niners figure to be much more conservative on the road
against this tough Seattle stop unit. Whether they're more conservative or
not, the 49ers offense will struggle to score TDs in the "Home of the 12th
Man." Seattle is a very tough venue for visitors, but it will be even
tougher (and louder) for this nationally televised game. Seattle's offense
struggled in Carolina last Sunday & I can't see them faring too much better
against this 49ers defense. Very important game for these division rivals.
Defenses should dominate & field goals should be more common than TDs in a
game I see ending 19-16. 3* MAX BET on UNDER 44.5.

[The Broker]

Medias Blancas de Chicago -120

Piratas de Pittsburgh -180

Bravos de Atlanta -200

Tigres de Detroit-1.5 -110

Suerte

The Broker

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 2 Goin' Over Total (won Week 1)

My 10* Week 2 Goin’ Over Total is on Jax/Oak Over at 4:25 ET.
The rule of thumb in the NFL over the years has always been, a team is never as good as it looks in its best game, or as bad as it looks in its worst game. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14 in 2012) are hoping the latter is true, as they lost in Week 1 at home to the Chiefs (also 2-14 last year), 28-2. It should come as no surprise that this “odd final score” marked the first time in NFL history that a game finished with a 28-2 final. Meanwhile, the Raiders gave a “game effort” at Indy last Sunday, before falling to the Colts by the score of 21-17.
The Jags head to Oakland without starting QB Blaine Gabbert, who suffered a severe laceration on his throwing hand that required 15 stitches. Veteran Chad Henne will start against the Raiders. As for the Raiders, their second-year QB Terrelle Pryor makes his third career start, coming off a fairly impressive Week 1 performance. Pryor edged Matt Flynn for the starting job this August (that’s becoming a pattern for Flynn) and passed for 217 yards vs the Colts plus set a franchise record for a QB with 112 rushing yards. He was intercepted twice, including in the final minute when the Raiders were driving for a potential go-ahead score. but all-in-all, the Raiders had to be happy.
Jacksonville only managed a safety in its opener as the offense produced 178 yards. Last year, the Jags finished 29th in total offense (299.3 YPG) and scored the third-fewest points in the league at 15.9 per. The Raiders, even with Carson Palmer throwing for over 4,000 yards in 2012, averaged a modest 18.9 PPG. It should come as no surprise that this game features Week 2’s lowest posted total (currently right around 39, as of 11:00 ET, Sunday morning).
However, here’s something that may surprise you and why I’m playing this game over. Jacksonville’s eight road games in 2012 averaged 49.1 PPG and Oakland’s eight home games averaged 46.3 PPG, which included a Week 7 game when the Jags played here in Oakland vs the Raiders and won outright, 26-23 in OT. I say “déjÃ* vu all over again!”
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* Division G.O.Y (2nd of 8 TY / 1-0 start)

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.
It’s become a tradition this past decade, that the previous year’s Super Bowl champ gets to open defense of its title in the following year’s season at home (typically on Thursday). There was ‘fly in the ointment’ in 2013, as the Ravens had a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Oriole on September 5. So, instead of opening at home against the Broncos, who Baltimore had upset in last year’s divisional round in Denver, the Ravens were scheduled to “return to the scene of the crime” (as viewed by Broncos fans) and open in Denver. You all saw what happened!
Peyton Manning tied an NFL record with seven TD passes, as the Broncos won 49-27, handing Baltimore the worst season-opening loss for a defending Super Bowl champion in history and the 49 points were the most ever scored against a Ravens defense in the team’s decorated history. As for the Browns, they lost a season-opener for the NINTH consecutive season last Sunday, falling 23-10 at home to the Dolphins. Cleveland is now 1-14 in season opening games, since returning to the NFL in 1999.
The two division rivals (a term I use in name-only), meet Sunday in Baltimore, as the Ravens get their much-anticipated home opener. I mention that Cleveland and Baltimore are division rivals in name only due to the fact that since John Harbaugh has come to Baltimore as its head coach (the same year Flacco was drafted and assumened the QB job as a rookie), the Ravens are a PERFECT 10-0 SU against the Browns, going 7-3 ATS, outscoring them on average, 25.1-to-12.2 PPG. The Baltimore Ravens NEED to move on from a horrible start to their season and just why won’t the Browns play the perfect foil?
Brandon Weeden threw 53 times last week against the Miami defense, and got sacked SIX times, while getting “hit” about 10 more times. He threw three INTs (all in the first half) and the only help he got from his running game was 47 yards on 13 attempts by Trent Richardson, the only Cleveland player to have a rushing attempt. Cleveland’s defense faced a Miami running game (without Reggie Bush) that totaled just 20 yards in 23 attempts, yet still lost by 13 points! Miami’s second-year QB Ryan Tannehill completed 24-of-38 passes for 272 yards (one TD / one INT), so just think what Flacco may do here.
Flacco couldn’t keep pace with Peyton but did throw for 362 yards and two TDs in Week 1. He’s coming off one of the NFL’s best-ever postseasons (11 TDs and 0 INTs for 1,140 yards in four games with a 117.2 QB rating) and likely is chomping at the bit to get back on the field, as is the entire Baltimore team. "The great thing about it is -- and we all know this -- it's week to week in this league, and it's going to be that way," coach John Harbaugh told the Ravens' official website. "What we need to do is take care of our business. If we take care of our business, we're going to be in the hunt and make it interesting, and if we don't, we're not."
As Baltimore CB Corey Graham said, "I'm pretty sure this game couldn't come fast enough!" The Browns are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Premier League cheat sheet: Swansea v Liverpool

The fourth week of Premier League fixtures concludes with Liverpool traveling to face Swansea Monday. Liverpool gaffer Brendan Rodgers makes his return to face the club he took to the Premier League.

We talk to Aron Black at Bet365 to find where action is.

Swansea v Liverpool (+250, +240, +125)

Why bet Swansea: The Swans will be looking for a positive result with Liverpool in Wales for this matchup. Even the home draw will suffice for coach Michael Laudrup. In their two previous trips to face the Welsh club, Liverpool were not able to score a goal. Swansea is currently a reasonably healthy side and are coming off a very nice 2-0 victory away to West Brom.

Key players out/doubtful: Neil Taylor, Jonjo Shelvey, Nathan Dyer

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds have collected nine points from three games and have done so as star goalscorer Luis Suárez serves his suspension for trying to eat Branislav Ivanovic's arm. Daniel Sturridge has been in form collecting three goals to open the season and holding midfielders Steven Gerrard and Lucas Leiva have been excellent in front of the back four.

Key players out/doubtful: Sebastián Coates, Aly Cissokho, Glen Johnson, Luis Suárez

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 0, Liverpool 0

Key betting note: If Liverpool win, it will be the first time the club has opened a Premier League campaign with four-straight victories.

Where the action is: "A tough game to choose a side for punters in this one. Inevitably, Liverpool is and will see action, but the draw and Swansea are also seeing plays. The draw is looking the most likely, but Liverpool may just have enough to scrape away a close win."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael David:

Atlanta
Miami
Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seahawks fans will attampt to set crowd noise record

The noisiest crowd in the NFL will attempt to set enter the Guinness Book of World Records for "loudest crowd roar at a sport stadium."

The Seattle Seahawks boast a raucous home crowd which gives the team a decided edge in home games and with the San Francisco 49ers in town Sunday night, they'll crank it up a notch. Or 12.

The crowd at CenturyLink Field will attempt to break the 131.76 decibel level set by fans of Turkish soccer team Galatasary in 2011.

The Seahawks were 8-0 SU at home last season and 7-1 ATS in those home games and oddsmakers believe CenturyLink Field is worth a lot to the Seahawks.

"In my opinion, four to six points," says Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com. "For teams like the 49ers, they play there every year so I would error on the low side and say four points. For a team like the Cowboys or an AFC team that only plays there once every four years or periodically, five to six points. Throw in an inexperienced QB or a young offensive line, and you could argue it’s even worth more than six. The Seahawks have the biggest home field of any NFL team, period!"

The Seahawks are currently 3-point home faves Sunday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Blasscyk WINS

he went 5-0 yesterday

FALCONS -6

RAVENS -7

COLTS -3

BRONCOS -4.5

SAINTS -3

MLB

ANGELS RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass Report for Sunday(all football):
100 unit teaser UNDER Miami and UNDER Green Bay
100 UNDER KC
100 Minnesota
100 San Diego
100 Arizona
200 Jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA
5* Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Root

Pinnacle Baltimore
Millionaire Seattle
Upset club Minnesota and Giants

I was just told these are the plays and I have a call into another person I know gets them, could have multiple packages for sale at multiple sites.

ROOT
Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) miami
inner circle st louis rams
no limit ny giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charlie Sports

500
maimi +3
green bay under 53
tb +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JB PA Connection

3* Cubs - UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

3-Unit Play Take #961 Colorado (+115) over Arizona (4:10 p.m., Sunday, September 15)
Jhoulys Chacin has put together a really nice season and I think he keeps it going today when he faces the Diamondbacks. Chacin is 4-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts against the D'backs and he is even more impressive when they play in Arizona owning a 2-1 record with a 1.78 ERA in 4 starts. Chacin has been steady on the road all year having an ERA that is a run and half lower than at home. Randall Delgado has never faced Colorado and hasn't won a game since August 2nd. He is 0-3 with a 5.31 ERA over those seven starts and I like Colorado to take the rubber match of this three game set. The Rockies are 5-1 in Chacin's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series and the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 home games versus a right handed starter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

3 Unit Play Take #960 Milwaukee +117 over Cincinnati (2:10pm est):
Quality home underdog here in this one. The Milwaukee Brewers haven't played well this season but they have beaten the Reds in eight of their last eleven games overall coming into this one. They will go with Yovani Gallardo today and Gallardo has finally started to pitch better since his return from the disabled list in mid-August. Gallardo is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts and is holding opponents to a .198 batting average. He has an ERA below 2.00 in his last five starts versus Cincinnati coming into this contest. Even more impressive is the fact that the Reds Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto are 0 for 18 this season against the right-hander.

The Reds got a huge win Saturday but their offense has really struggled their past 11 games overall as they come in averaging just 3.3 runs per game during that time. Bronson Arroyo takes the hill here for them in this one and he's struggled away from home with a 4.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Arroyo has posted an ERA of just 4.50 in August and September as well.

The Brewers offer nice value at home with the red hot Gallardo going for them. Take Milwaukee in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

MLB BASEBALL PLAYS

2 Unit Play #980 Take St. Louis -1 ½ +115 over Seattle (2:15p.m., Sunday September 15)
Last night the Cardinals lost to the Mariners 4-1 and we know have a tie in the NL Central between the Cards and Pirates. Shelby Miller gets the start for the Cards this afternoon and he has pitched well in his last 2-games and the Cardinals have won both of those games he started. Look for St. Louis to rebound today at home and I see the Cardinals covering the run-line. Seattle is 2-5 in their last 7 road games and the Cardinals are 12-4 in their last 16 home games and an outstanding 49-23 following a SU loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

MLB

4-Unit Play Take 'Under' 8.5 New York Yankees at Boston (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
Clay Buchholz looked great coming back from injury. He pitched five scoreless innings at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. That was his first start since June 8. Buchholz has been dominant all season long and has just a 1.61 ERA on the season. The 'under' is 5-1 in his last six starts. The Yankees are going with Ivan Nova tonight and he has been one of their best pitchers as well. Nova has just a 3.17 ERA this year and he should be ready to bounce back after a rare bad start. The 'under' is 8-3 in the game after Nova gives up five or more runs in his career. This has been a high scoring series lately but I think that these pitchers will turn it around. The Yankees won't have Alfonso Soriano today and he had been carrying the offense. Look for a pitcher's duel and for this one to stay 'under'.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

MLB
1-Unit Play Take #980 St. Louis (-1.5, +110) over Seattle (2 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)

1-Unit Play Take #964 L.A. Dodgers (-140) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)

1-Unit Play Take #954 Washington (-1.5, +100) over Philadelphia (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)

Today's Totals

1-Unit Play Take 'Under' 8.5 N.Y. Yankees at Boston (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)

1-Unit Play Take 'Under' 8.0 San Diego at Atlanta (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)

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DOC SPORTS

MLB
4-unit Play Take #975 Oakland A's (-110) over Texas Rangers (3:05pm EST) The Oakland A's are leaning heavily on the Texas Rangers and are ready to put the nails in the coffin on the American League West division crown in 2013. On paper this Oakland team doesn't appear to be anything special. But General Manager Billy Beane has done another masterful job putting together a complete team with players other teams didn't want. Call it Moneyball or just plain advanced scouting, but the A's have made shrewd personnel decisions to compete with the big boys with a limited payroll. Today they send a great example Jarrod Parker to the hill. Parker is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 29 starts this season. Those are great numbers and especially impressive given how badly he started the year. After seven starts, he was 1-4 with a 7.34 ERA and was nearly demoted to the minor leagues. But since then he's been one of the best pitchers in the league and someone that the A's can count on in each and every start. In fact, he's given up more than three earned runs just once in 22 starts since that horrid beginning. The Rangers lineup isn't what it used to be when they had Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz. All of their offensive numbers are just average on a park-adjusted basis. Parker should be able to keep them at bay and put a stranglehold on the division with a victory in this one. Take Oakland here.

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Statpicks Daily
(09-15-13)

Today's PICKS

NFL: Atlanta -4.5, Carolina -3.5, Minnesota +6, Baltimore -6.5, Arizona +1.5, New Orleans -3, NY Giants +4, rams/falcons over 47, vikings/bears under 41, chargers/eagles under 53, browns/ravens under 44, lions/cardinals under 48, saints/bucs over 48

MLB: Rockies (+115)

WNBA: fever/sun over 138.5, mercury/sparks under 163.5, liberty/ mystics under 145.5, dream/silver stars under 152

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underdog arizona

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Ben Burns Blue Marlin

Washington Nationals

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Ray Falco

Cards
Giants
Bucs

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red suit
Bills over 43- saints over48

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/15


Miami Dolphins +1 over the Indianapolis Colts (NFL Football)


(System Record: 138-5, Won last game)
Overall Record: 138-122


Also, listed below is your bonus extra picks for today:




Cleveland Browns +7 over the Baltimore Ravens (NFL Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 over the Oakland Raiders (NFL Football)


Atlanta Falcons -5.5 (buy half point to -5) over the St. Louis Rams (NFL Football)

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Coaches corner (1-0)
kc

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday September 15, 2013

$20.00 NFL Play #1

#206 Atlanta -4.5 1PM Eastern

Line from Betonline
Line as of 3AM Eastern 9/15/13

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Hoopsgooroo 9/15


196 Eagles -7.5
197 Browns +7
200 Texans -8
201 Dolphins +3
204 Bills +3.5
206 Falcons -6
207 Redskins +7.5
210 Chiefs -3
212 Bears -6
214 Bucs +3.5
216 Cards +1.5
218 Raiders -4.5
220 Giants +4.5
221 49ers +3

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Mike Lineback


Teaser: Eagles/Texans

Cowboys
Lions
Seahawks

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Playersbet NFL
5 units: Baltimore (-6.5) over Cleveland

5 units: Atlanta (-6.5) over St. Louis

4 Unit: Indianapolis (-2 ½) over Miami

4 units: New York Giants (+5) over Denver

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Northcoast

3'* NO
3* indy
3* det.
Marquee seattle

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Aaron's Analysis 9/15


chicago

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PSYCHIC
(1-5) 5 unit Dallas +3 (WISEGUY)WIZARD
(1-20)10 unit Carolina -3
10 unit Tennessee +9
10 unit Minnesota +5.5 JT WALKER
(all units same)Miami +1.5 Kenny Nguyen
(1-50)25 unit Washington +9
25 unit New Orleans -3

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Z Money Sports 9/15


Baltimore -7
Buffalo/Carolina over 43
KC/Dallas over 46
Detroit -2
Oakland -5

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Bob Balfe
BALTIMORE RAVENS -7

The Ravens are not going to be Super Bowl Champs, but they are not as bad as how they looked on opening night. Cleveland on the other hand looked awful and I don’t think these are problems that can be fixed overnight. The offensive line was horrible, running game was brutal, quarterback play stunk and the list goes on. This is a bad football team. The Ravens could not have drew a better match up for this afternoon. Baltimore still has playmakers on defense and I believe wins this game with ease. Take the Ravens.

HOUSTON TEXANS -9

I know big spreads have not done well for the favorites as of late, but the oddsmakers in Vegas are no dummies. Houston finally woke up in San Diego in the 4th quarter Monday Night and got a big road win. The Titans looked good over Pittsburgh, but the Steelers had a ton of offensive line issues and this year will not be a good football team until they get that correct. Chris Johnson has been a disappointment for the Titans and I think this is a game Houston can go wire to wire with ease. Take Houston.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3

The Colts 3-4 defense did not look good against the mobility of Pryor when playing Oakland. Lucky for Indy they face a pocket QB today that does not have the best of legs. Indy has a stacked offense and at home I think are just a much better team. Miami played a team that really struggled last week and still had to fight to the end to get the victory. The Colts got away with a win last week and looked great other than the 110+ yards ran by the quarterback. That will not happen today. Take the Colts.

OAKLAND RAIDERS -5.5

Simply put. If The Jags can win on the road with a backup QB then we really shouldn’t complain if we lose this bet. This Jacksonville team is the worst team in the league by far. Today they will also be without their tight end which is big for checkdown plays when others are covered. I like this Oakland new look defense and think at home they are the superior team. Again, the Jags winning a game on the road is about a 10 percent chance. If the hang in the game so be it, but this is too good to pass up. Take Oakland.

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Line Lounge
Sunday, 9/15/2013-NFL

Take #213 New Orleans over Tampa Bay

The Saints are looking to make a Super Bowl run this year, and they will be taking every game seriously. They narrowly escaped from good Falcons team last week, but don’t expect this game to be that close. Brees is the best QB in the NFL this year, and he looked on point last week throwing 357 yards for 2 TDs. There were a few hitches, but I think the kinks will be worked out for this game. Look for Sproles to step up in this game, as his all purpose yards slowly add up. Also, Sean Payton is back, so boosted morale should play a role as well.

The Buccaneers were error plagued against the Jets last week, and if they play like that again they will have no chance today. Freeman went 15/31 for only 210 yards and had an INT to add to those dismal stats. It is hard to win in the NFL with a struggling QB, and Freeman has had an even worse history against the Saints.

I don’t see this one being close.

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Micah Roberts

NY Giants

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King Creole

Saints / Bucs Over

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Jimmy Moore

4* Minnesota +5.5

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MTI 5*
Carolina -3 over BUFFALO – The Bills had nothing to lose in their opener as they were a big dog. There was no pressure on EJ Manual in that game. Here, there will be. We expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to outplay Manual and the Bills.


Carolina battled the Seahawks gamely in week one, leading 7-3 at the half before falling 12-7 as a 3.5-point home dog. The Panthers had a chance for the winning score but DeAngelo Williams fumbled the ball away inside the Seahawks’ ten-yard line with five minutes left in the game. Steve Smith caught the only Panthers TD and chipped in with five more catches. The Panthers are 10-0 ATS after a game in which Steve Smith had more than 5 receptions, covering by an average of a whopping 12.4 ppg. They are 9-1 straight up in this situation, with their lone defeat a 23-22 setback as a 7.5-point underdog. The SDQL text is:


team=Panthers and 5<=Panthers:S Smith:p:receptions and date>=20111127


In addition, Carolina is 8-0 ATS as a favorite the week after a home loss and 7-0 ATS after a loss in which they were winning at the half. The SDQL for these two trends are:


team=Panthers and F and p:HL and NB and date>=20051218


team=Panthers and p:L and p:M2>0 and season>=2011


The Bills trailed 10-0 after one quarter last week against the Patriots, but returned a fumble 74 yards for a TD to get them back into the game. Teams in this spot have not done well vs the number. NFL teams are a combined 0-17 ATS at home when their line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they benefited from two-plus turnovers, returned a fumble for a TD and had fewer than 325 total yards. Verify this for yourself by running this SDQL text:


H and -3<=line<=3 and p:fumble return touchdowns>0 and p:TY<325 and po:TO>=2 and date>=20021201


These 17 teams have lost by an average of 11.4 points and have failed to cover by an average of 12.3 ppg.


Buffalo has been absolutely abysmal after losing as a home dog – especially if they are the underdog. Since the start of the 2009 season, Buffalo is 0-8 ATS as a home after losing as a home dog, losing every game by at least two touchdowns. The average final score has been 36.1 points to 8.9 points. This is the largest average margin we can remember. See for yourself with this SDQL text:


team=Bills and D and p:LHD and season>=2009


On the average, the linesmakers has been off by more than twenty points in these games. The fact that their opening week loss to the Patriots was close will only hurt them here.


One of these teams is an 0-2 team and it ain’t Carolina.


MTi’s FORECAST: Carolina 27 BUFFALO 13

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Ultra Sports

Chiefs

Cardinals

Vikings

Giants

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Vegas Runner ‏

Confirmed TRUE Steam:

UNDER - SD/PHI

UNDER - DAL/KC

OVER - NO/TBAY (Public on this one heavy too)

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Las Vegas Pipeline

Ravens

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int picks

3* chicago -6
2* balt -6.5
san fron +3
new orleans -3

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Millionaires club
buffalo over

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Sports unlimited
7det
5clev
4carolina
4houston

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Sports bank
400 san diego

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INTPICKS

NFL

1 PM ET


3 STARS
Minnesota @ Chicago
Take Chicago -6

2 Stars
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Take New Orleans -3

2 Stars
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Take Baltimore -6.5

1 Star
Miami @ Indianapolis
Take Miami +3

1 Star
Carolina @ Buffalo
Take Carolina -3

4:25 PM ET
1 Star
Denver @ NY Giants
Take NY Giants +4.5


8:30 PM ET

2 Stars

San Francisco @ Seattle

Take San Francisco +3

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Matt Fargo 10* Ultimate Underdog

NY Giants

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Underdog - NY Giants

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona -122 (moneyline) at Diamond

Colorado is 3-7 their last 10 games and are an awful road team. The Rockies are 16-38 in their last 54 road games, and 8-20 in their last 28 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Rockies are 5-14 in their last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and face a Randall Delgado today, with the team 7-3 in his last 10 appearances. He also has a sparkling 3.36 ERA at home. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 in Delgado's last 11 starts. The Rockies are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Arizona, including 1-4 in the last five meetings overall. Play Arizona.

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60 Percent Guaranteed

k.c -3
arizona +2

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Cappersadvantage BigEast
Saints -3
Saints over 48
Seahawks -2.5

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Preferred Picks

ny giants
tampa bay

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Where the action is: 49ers at Seahawks action report

Sunday Night Football features a pair of NFC West rivals as the Seattle Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers.

In the matchup last season, the Seahawks dominated San Fran covering as 2.5-point in a 42-13 Week 16 victory.

The two teams are coming into this one off of polar-opposite performances.

Colin Kaepernick and the 49er offense did what it wanted to do against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 with the 49ers prevailing by a score of 34-28.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks barely escaped Carolina with a victory in a tough 12-7 game.

We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker at SportsBook.ag, about the action on Week 2's Sunday nighter.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -3, Move: -2.5, Move: -3

This line has barely moved an inch at most books though some action on the 49ers moved the line to Seattle -2.5, but the line currently rests at that -3 mark.

"Just like with the Broncos versus the Giants, this will likely be a either a small win or small loss on the spread for shop," Perry told Covers. "53 percent of the money is taking the 49ers."

The majority of shops opened the total at either 45 or 44.5 and that line, similarly, has barely nudged as Perry states 52 percent of the action is on the under 45.

The moneyline is a different story, however.

"It will be a big decision on the moneyline however," states Perry. "Eighty-eight percent of the moneyline cash is on the Niners +110."

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Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees at Red Sox
By STEVE MERRIL

The rivalry continues when the Red Sox host the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-165, 8.5)

SUPER NOVA

Ivan Nova has been solid for the Yankees, going 8-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season. He was limited to 79 pitches his last time out due to triceps tightness and he is listed as questionable for this start, so there is the possibility of a pitching change. Nova last saw the Red Sox on Sept. 5 when he gave up three runs and five hits in four innings of work. The Yankees’ starter has not flashed the strikeouts too much putting away only 15 hitters total in his last five starts via a strikeout. Nova has not allowed more than six hits in any of his last four starts.

MOLDING THE CLAY

Clay Buchholz has been incredible for Boston going 10-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. His return from the disabled list went well as he gave up just three hits and a walk in five innings pitched against Tampa Bay. Buchholz last faced the Yankees back on June 2nd when he gave up just two hits and one walk in five innings of work. He opened up the year in New York back on April 3 by picking up a win while allowing one run and six hits in seven innings. Boston’s starter has allowed just 12 runs in seven home starts this season. He has walked just one batter in each of his last three outings and he has given up just two home runs all year.

INJURY REPORT

These are two of the most injured teams in the league. Jacoby Ellsbury is out with a compression fracture for Boston. They are also without bullpen arms Andrew Bailey, Andrew Miller, and Joel Hanrahan who are all done for the year.

The Yankees’ lineup is getting closer to full strength, but they are without Derek Jeter, Brett Gardner, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Nix, and Mark Teixeira. Youkilis seems to be the only one who will return this season and he’s not even a guarantee.

TRENDS

Yankees are 10-4 in Nova’s last 14 Sunday starts
Yankees are 7-2 Over in their last 9 Sunday games

Red Sox are 35-16 in Buchholz’s last 51 home starts
Red Sox are 4-0 Under in Buchholz’s last 4 Sunday starts

HITTERS TO WATCH

Robinson Cano 12-for-29 vs. Buchholz
Alex Rodriguez 9-for-23 vs. Buchholz

Dustin Pedroia 4-for-10 vs. Nova
David Ortiz 5-for-14 vs. Nova

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Tale of the tape: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday Night Football will be a hotly contested matchup as the 49ers travel north to face the Seahawks. These are two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and the atmosphere in Seattle should be electric. We break down Sunday night's NFC West grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The 49ers marched all over the field in Week 1 against Green Bay totaling 494 yards in the 34-28 victory. The bulk of that was through the air, however, as Frank Gore and the 49er rushing attack was largely ineffective. But quite the aerial attack it was. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin looked like they had been playing together for years as Boldin hauled in 13 catches for 208 yards and TE Vernon Davis added a pair of touchdown catches.

The Seahawks only managed 12 points against the Carolina Panthers one week ago, but looked threatening at times. Until they got into the red zone that is. Seattle finished Week 1 0-for-3 inside the 20 and the lone touchdown came on a 43 yard pass play to Jermaine Kearse. Marshawn Lynch struggled to get anything going against Carolina, save for a 14 yard scamper. He finished with 43 yards on 17 carries.

Edge: San Francisco

Defense

Aaron Rodgers gave the 49er defense all they could handle as the Packers racked up 322 passing yards and 385 yards of total offense. The defensive unit did make some plays including an interception and a fumble recovery. LB NaVorro Bowman picked up where the 2012 season left off as he collected eight tackles and a pass deflection.

Seattle gets the pleasure of facing another athletic QB after containing Cam Newton in Week 1. The stingy Seahawk defensive squad kept Newton at bay for the most part, but struggled stopping the run. DeAngelo Williams rumbled his way to 86 yards on 17 carries for 5.1 ypc. The Seahawks only managed one sack on Cam Newton and must up the pressure against Kaepernick.

Edge: Seattle

Special teams

New 49ers kicker Phil Dawson was one of the top kickers one season ago and was 2-for-3 in Week 1. He did miss a 48-yard attempt on his first try in his new 49er uniform. The 49ers are looking for some stability on field goal attempts from 40 yards and out, so it wasn't the best of starts for the veteran.

Steven Hauschka went 2-for-2 in Week 1 with a 27 yard FG and a 40 yard FG. Hauscka is pretty reliable up to 50 yards. He was 23-for-23 from 49 yards and in one season ago, but just 1-for-4 beyond the 50.

Edge: Seattle

Notable quotable

“He’s really coming into his own as a leader, a quarterback and a player. We weren’t operating on all cylinders as an offense last week, but to be able to have the kind of day he had, to lead us to a victory at the end speaks volumes, 400-plus yards passing, no picks, three touchdowns, pretty good start for the season. And it’s just something that we've got to continue to improve on, and he’s the kind of guy that’s going to do that every day.” - 49ers OC Greg Roman on Colin Kaepernick

"He has this ability to change directions that makes him extremely quick and that suddenness is what gets him open but then it goes to the savvy that he has and the time he's spent working with Russell. Those guys really are relying on seeing things in the same fashion and being able to take advantage of the opportunities." - Seahawks coach Pete Carroll on WR Doug Baldwin.

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VR 3* Seahawks ML ( o-2 on 3* today ) 1-2 over all today

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RTG Sports

Sunday Night:

2-Team 7 Point Teaser -130*

San Francisco 49ers +10

Under 51