9-23-13

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Today's NFL Picks



MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (9/18)


Game 419-420: Oakland at Denver (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 127.801; Denver 139.776
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12; 54
Vegas Line: Denver by 15 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15 1/2); Over

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NFL line watch:

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14

At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

“You just can’t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,” Roods says of Denver’s ailing offensive line.

“With these big spreads, the teams don’t care about them,” he says. “If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they’re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There’s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).”

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NFL

Week 3

Monday's Game

Raiders (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Over last seven years, Oakland is amazing 18-3 vs spread as a divisional road underdog, but they’ve lost last three games vs Denver by 14-31-13 points. Broncos appear to be offensive juggernaut, scoring 90 points in first two games (11 TDs, two FGA on first 26 drives), with four drives of 40 or less yards plus a PR for TD. Raiders won four of last five visits here, with wins before Manning came to town (they lost 37-6 here LY). Raiders split pair of close games this year without getting a takeaway; they’ve run ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, with Pryor’s mobility a key factor. Bronco defense allowed only 58-23 rushing yards in first two games, and they’re still missing some key pieces- Denver is 3-1 as double digit favorite under Fox, after being 2-12-1 in that role in eight years before he became HC. From 2006-11, Broncos were 5-24-2 as Mile High favorites; they’re 7-1 in that role since #18 became their QB.

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Broncos Favored Big Monday Night vs. Raiders

Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -15.5, Total: 49.5

The Raiders head out to Denver on Monday night where they look to come away with an improbable win over the heavily-favored Broncos and their high-powered offense.

In 2012, Denver swept the season series, including a 37-6 win at home. QB Peyton Manning threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception in those two victories. This Oakland team, however, has been much more competitive with Terrelle Pryor under center than they were last year with an unhappy Carson Palmer. The Raiders are 2-0 ATS this season, but so are the Broncos who have beaten them in three straight meetings after losing the four previous meetings to the Raiders. Denver crushed the Giants in New York last week, 41-23, and is 8-1 ATS (89%) when coming off a road win over the past three seasons. The Broncos are also 12-2 ATS (86%) when playing as a favorite over the past two years. This does not make them an automatic cover though, as the Raiders have been a tough team to beat in this young season and the Broncos are just 5-15 ATS in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.

Behind four field goals from Sebastian Janikowski and an 11-yard touchdown run from fullback Marcel Reese, the Raiders defeated the Jaguars 19-9 last week. QB Terrelle Pryor failed to find the end zone in the game, but he was effective moving the ball as he had 176 total yards without turning the ball over. RB Darren McFadden was the real spark for this Oakland team as he rushed for 129 yards on 19 carries (6.8 YPC). “Run-DMC” also caught a team-high four passes for 28 yards. He has looked like the player Raiders fans expected when they drafted him so far this season and should continue to as long as he remains healthy which is always a big question mark with him. Oakland will probably need a lot more than 19 points to stay in the game against the Broncos on Monday, so Pryor must bring his A-game if the Raiders are going to improve to 2-1. The Raiders expect to be without starting TE David Ausberry (shoulder) for the third straight game and will also miss SS Tyvon Branch who is out indefinitely with what is believed to be a fractured fibula.

The Broncos are coming off of a blowout victory in which Peyton Manning beat up on his younger brother Eli and the New York Giants. Manning threw for 307 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, upping his season totals to 769 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 9 TD and 0 INT. However, he may be a little jittery dropping back as starting LT Ryan Clady has been lost for the year with a foot injury. RB Knowshon Moreno was also on a roll against the Giants. Despite a committee backfield, Denver used Moreno on a large majority of their snaps and he delivered with 13 carries for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Moreno was also very useful in pass protection and caught three short passes for 14 yards when Manning needed a bailout. WR Eric Decker, who struggled in Week 1 with dropped passes, bounced back against the Giants and caught nine passes for 87 yards. He was targeted 13 times and it was clear Peyton didn’t lose any trust in his wideout. Manning has no shortage of reliable hands to catch his passes with WR Demaryius Thomas (213 rec. yds, 2 TD), TE Julius Thomas (157 rec. yds, 3 TD) and WR Wes Welker (106 rec. yds, 3 TD). But as great as the offense has been, Denver's defense has struggled a bit, allowing 25.0 PPG and 344 passing YPG. If CB Champ Bailey (foot) is able to return to the field, he will provide a huge boost to the secondary.

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NFL

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 49)

Rarely do you get to say two touchdowns is not enough when talking about NFL spreads. But, here we are.

The Broncos look like world beaters, smoking the defending Super Bowl champs and thumping the one team that may have the most inside info on Peyton Manning (H/T Eli) in the first two weeks of the season. Denver has outscored opponents 90-50 through those two games, winning by an average of 20 points against two very good teams.

The Oakland Raiders are not a very good team. A close loss to Indianapolis – which plays every game close – and a win over Jacksonville – which could be the worst team in NFL history – has everyone’s Silver and Black panties in the bunch.

If Denver’s defense can pick off a total of six passes against Super Bowl MVPs like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, a forgotten third-round pick like Terrelle Pryor doesn’t stand a chance.

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Hondo

Raiders

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Mighty Quinn

denver broncos

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Raiders at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 48.5)

The Denver Broncos have experienced little adversity in posting a pair of dominating wins to open the season, but that is about to change as they prepare to host the Oakland Raiders on Monday night. Peyton Manning is off to a sizzling start but he could be looking over his shoulder after the Broncos lost starting left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending Lisfranc foot injury. Denver has won 13 consecutive regular-season games, the longest winning streak in the NFL.

Oakland has split its first two games behind dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who was expected to be the team's backup before beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job in the preseason. Pryor conceded he has to make sure not to be preoccupied with the fact that Manning, the league's only four-time Most Valuable Player, is on the opposing sideline. “Peyton’s great and I can’t let that get into mind,” Pryor said. “I have to play my game and focus on my team."

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Denver opened as a 14-point fave and is now -14.5. The total opened 49.5 and dropped to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (1-1): Oakland's strategy to combat Manning and Denver's high-powered offense will likely be to play keep-away and rely on a running attack that averaged a league-best 198.5 yards in the first two games. Pryor has been an integral part of that success, setting a franchise record with 112 yards on the ground in a season-opening loss at Indianapolis while running back Darren McFadden rumbled for 129 yards in last week's 19-9 victory over Jacksonville. Oakland's defense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 261 yards allowed and will look to exploit Clady's absence with a unit that has collected nine sacks.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0): Manning's passer rating is off the charts at a league-leading 131.0 after throwing for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. He has weapons all over the field in the wide receiver troika of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to go with emerging tight end Julius Thomas, and former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno fortified the running game with a 93-yard, two-touchdown effort in last week's 41-23 win at the New York Giants. A defense that is missing suspended linebacker Von Miller could get a boost with the expected return of Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
* Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Denver.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning, who is 6-0 vs. the AFC West since joining the Broncos, is the only QB in league history with nine TDs versus zero picks in the opening two games.

2. Oakland is 11-2 when McFadden rushes for 100 yards.

3. The Broncos have outscored the opposition 66-24 in the second half.

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College football odds: Week 5 opening line report

Things in the SEC heat up another notch in Week 5 of the college football schedule as the LSU Tigers travel to Athens, Georgia to face the Bulldogs.

LSU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is coming off a 35-21 victory over Auburn in which QB Zach Mettenberger continued his excellent play.

The big senior is now 59-of-91 for 1,026 yards with 10 TDs and 1 pick on the season.

Georgia (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) defeated North Texas 45-21 Saturday and has an SEC victory under its belt already having defeated South Carolina 41-30 in Week 2.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, and his team were all relatively close when discussing where to open this battle of SEC heavyweights.

"We were all pretty solid on this one. We were all from -2 to -4 so I stuck it at -3," Korner told Covers. "These teams are as even as they can be. You have to really look at that home field advantage here and I don't really think this will go too far off the number."


Oklahoma Sooners at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2.5)

The Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have had a pair of cake walks and a tough victory versus West Virginia in Week 2. They'll be coming off a bye week and heading to Indiana to face Notre Dame.

After a loss to Michigan in Week 2, The Irish (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) have put together back-to-back wins over Purdue and Michigan State.

Korner and his team were all on the Sooners for this intriguing matchup.

"We were all on Oklahoma with a low of one and a high of five," Korner said. "Even though Oklahoma is favored, Notre Dame has a great chance in this one. We should see some good two-way action on this game right around that field goal."


Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5)

Wisconsin (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) is one of just five schools left with a 4-0 ATS record (Marlyand, UTSA, Washington State, Wyoming).

The running game has gotten it done for the Badgers as they are third in the country averaging 349.8 rushing yards per game.

The Buckeyes (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) posted a 76-0 victory over Florida A&M in their last game despite missing the services of QB Braxton Miller.

Backup Kenny Guiton set a school record with six TD tosses in the rout over the Rattlers.

"We had Ohio State favored higher but I actually took the lowest number of all five of us," Korner explained. "I think Wisconsin is a live dog here. They play really well during the regular season and they've got a good following."


Mississippi Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide (-18)

Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is off to a great start and will head to Alabama after a bye week. Prior to the week off, the Rebels torched Texas 44-23 in Austin.

Nick Saban and the Tide (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) are still the top-ranked team in the country but are coming off a modest 31-6 victory over Colorado State; a team which they probably should have had an easier time with.

Despite the high opening line, Korner feels the Rebels will be tough.

"I think Mississippi is good and they'll get some play at that number," Korner said. "I wanted to be high on this but not totally high because I think Mississippi can play with these guys. Alabama hasn't really blown out those couple of teams that we thought they were going to."

Opinions from Korner and his team varied for this matchup.

"We had a low of 15 and a high of 23. I really wanted to put it in the 20s but I put it at Alabama -18."

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Gators QB Driskel out for season, BCS odds move

The Florida Gators will be without the services of No. 1 quarterback Jeff Driskel for the remainder of the season and Gators' BCS odds are on the move.

The Gators entered Saturday 80/1 to win the BCS but after the injury to Driskel, have moved to 100/1 at Sportsbook.ag (http://www.sportsbook.ag/).

Driskel suffered a broken leg early in Saturday's game against rival Tennessee and was replaced by junior Tyler Murphy who promptly led the Gators out of a 7-0 deficit to a 31-17 victory.

Prior to replacing Driskel, Murphy had not thrown a pass for the Gators.

Murphy and the Gators travel to Kentucky to face the Wildcats on Sept. 28.

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Tale of the Tape: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning looks to build on a sensational start to the season as he and the Denver Broncos welcome the Oakland Raiders to town in Monday Night Football action. Manning's nine-touchdown, zero-interception performance led the Broncos to back-to-back one-sided victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants. Oakland opened with a narrow loss to Indianapolis before bouncing back to win against Jacksonville.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

There was no more potent offensive attack in football after the opening two weeks of the season than the Manning-led Broncos. Despite not having the same arm strength he had as a younger quarterback, Manning is as efficient as ever, completing 67 percent of his passes while racking up more than 750 yards. The Broncos' third-ranked pass attack has taken a lot of emphasis away from the running game, which has been mediocre at the best of times (21st in average rushing yards entering Sunday). Knowshown Moreno scored twice last week, but the Denver rushing committee has been largely inconsistent.

The Raiders are the polar opposite of their Monday opponent, struggling with the passing game but boasting one of the more robust rush attacks in football. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor is finding things difficult without an established No. 1 receiver, having to rely on unheralded Rod Streater (eight catches, 112 yards) to lead the way. Pryor has no such concerns when he scrambles, leading all QBs with 162 rushing yards. He and Darren McFadden (177 yards, TD) form the strongest 1-2 running punch in the league so far, but should meet plenty of resistance against a stout Denver rush defense.

Edge: Denver

Defense

Baltimore and New York could do next to nothing on the ground against Denver, averaging fewer than 41 yards per game with a two yards-per-carry average. The Broncos haven't allowed a run of more than 14 yards to date - and with an offense that is averaging 45 points per game, that means plenty of garbage-time passing opportunities for the opposition. This may explain why Denver has surrendered a whopping 688 yards through the air so far - its 111 pass attempts against is third only to Philadelphia and Kansas City, who have each played an extra game.

The Oakland defense has been one of the league's biggest early-season surprises. Though it helps to have played a game against the anemic Jaguars' offense, the Raiders have looked solid defensively while holding their opponents to an average of 180.5 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), 80.5 rushing yards (ninth) and 13 points. The Jacksonville game was particularly encouraging, as the Jaguars managed just 34 rushing yards on 19 carries and were held out of the end zone until the game was well out of reach with 2:53 remaining.

Edge: Oakland

Special Teams

After two full weeks and the early Week 3 game, the Broncos remain the only NFL team with a punt-return touchdown - courtesy Trindon Holliday, whose 81-yard return TD punctuated Denver's 41-23 win over the Giants in Week 2. While Holliday's impressive return inflates the Denver punt-return totals, the Broncos would still rank in the top three in yardage even without it. Denver sits in the middle of the pack in kickoff-return defense (24.2 yards allowed per kick) and has had a punt returned just three times, allowing an average return of 8.7 yards (12th-highest).

The Raiders haven't had many punt returns, but aside from a 30-yard jaunt, they haven't fared well - averaging just two yards on their other four attempts. Oakland ranks 12th in kickoff return yardage at 24.3 per attempt, but has only had three through the opening two weeks. The Raiders are one of only 11 teams to hold opponents to less than 20 yards per kickoff return (19.8), and have had just two punts returned at an average of 14 yards per attempt. Oakland is one of only three teams without an opponent fair catch.

Edge: Denver

Notable Quotables

"It's hard to fool that guy. He's seen a lot. He does a great job in preparation. It'll be hard to fool him. It's going to come down to execution. We're going to have to execute our jobs." -- Oakland head coach Dennis Allen on Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning

"They'll give you a lot of looks. They've got good guys doing it. I think they've improved on the back end, and I think they've improved playing team defense." -- Broncos head coach John Fox on the Oakland pass rush

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MLB betting: Top 3 hot pitchers on the mound Monday

Baseball's final week starts Monday and there are three pitchers that will take the mound that have been saving their best work for the September run.

If you're looking to get some final regular season bets in, here are three hurlers that could be worth a look Monday.

A.J. Griffin, Oakland A's (14-9, 3.78 ERA)

The big righthander has put together an excellent September going 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA, compared to 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in August. He still leads all AL pitchers in homers allowed as he's given up a whopping 35. He's given up three taters in September, but has fanned 30 batters in 26 innings of work, which is easily his best K/9 rate this year.

The A's send Griffin to the mound Monday to face the Los Angeles Angels.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (17-9, 2.98 ERA)

The Cards' righty has rebounded from a poor (by his standards) August with a 2-1 record and 3.14 ERA in four September starts. He's strung together three excellent starts in a row and is 2-0 over that stretch.

Wainwright will toe the rubber Monday as the Cards host the Washington Nationals.

Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-9, 4.57 ERA)

McCarthy has saved his best for last. The righty is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in the month and has pitched the DBacks to victories over the Dodgers and Giants. He tossed nine innings of work on Sept. 2 versus the Jays but was a hard-luck loser in a 4-1 decision.

The Diamondbacks are in San Diego to face the Padres Monday night. McCarthy is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Friars this season.

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Monday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Monday's American League games:

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Wei-Yin Chen is 3-4 with a 4.93 ERA - two runs higher than his first-half mark - in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Baltimore roster have just five hits in 34 combined at-bats against Rays starter Chris Archer.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Baltimore is 8-2 in Chen's last eight starts against teams with winning records.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-285, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Rangers left-hander Derek Holland has struggled in September, going 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA in three starts this month.

Cold batting stat: Houston's Brandon Barnes, Matt Dominguez and Brett Wallace are a combined 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts against Holland.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with clear skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Houston is 4-25 in starter Jordan Lyles' last 29 outings against teams with winning records.


Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 5.06 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 1B Prince Fielder has dominated his matchup with Pelfrey, going 8-for-23 with three homers and 11 RBIs against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit is 1-7 in right-hander Justin Verlander's last eight starts.


Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (-125, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Hot batting stat: Chicago SS Alexei Ramirez is 9-for-21 with two doubles and three RBIs versus Toronto this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago has lost nine of its last 10 games against American League East opponents.


Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (OFF, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Oakland right-hander A.J. Griffin is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 30 strikeouts in four September starts.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout is batting .299 with six home runs and 16 RBIs in 16 games versus the Athletics in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-0 in Angels right-hander Garrett Richards' last seven home starts.


Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (+125, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Seattle right-hander Brandon Maurer has allowed 10 runs on 16 hits over 9 1/3 innings in September.

Hot batting stat: Mariners 2B Kyle Seager is hitting .444 with two doubles and a homer in 18 at-bats against the Royals this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0-2 in Maurer's last six starts.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 5:28 p.m. ET Sunday.

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Monday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's American League games:

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (+105, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay defeated the Marlins last week, limiting them to a run on four hits over six innings of a 6-4 triumph.

Hot batting stat: Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton is 7-for-23 with a pair of homers lifetime versus Halladay.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 60 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms, so the roof at Marlins park may be closed. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 24-5-1 in Halladay's last 30 road starts.


Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (OFF, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Braves lefty Mike Minor has a 2.60 ERA and has limited Milwaukee to a .186 batting average in three starts against the Brewers.

Cold batting stat: Atlanta 2B Dan Uggla has just one hit in 11 career at-bats versus Milwaukee starter Marco Estrada.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Brewers are 8-2 in Estrada's previous 10 starts on five days' rest.


New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-240, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto was strong in his return from a lengthy DL stint, tossing five shutout innings in a 6-1 win over Houston.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati OF Ryan Ludwick is a career .389 hitter with three home runs and nine RBIs in 36 at-bats against Mets starter Aaron Harang.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last six Monday starts.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (+115, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija is 3-3 with a 4.98 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen has zero home runs, zero RBIs and nine strikeouts in 22 career at-bats versus Samardzija.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight home games against teams with winning road records.


Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-165, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark has won all three of his starts as a rookie, allowing just two runs over 19 innings in that span.

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 22 strikeouts over his past three starts.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in the Cardinals' last eight encounters with the National League East.


Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-115, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon McCarthy is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA and one walk over his previous five starts.

Cold batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt has just three hits in 15 career at-bats versus Padres left-hander Eric Stults.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in San Diego's last eight home games against teams with losing road records.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 5:33 p.m. ET Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Browns (+6) on Sunday and likes the Rays on Monday.

The deficit is 1473 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Monday, Sep 23 2013 8:40PM
420 DEN -14.5(-110) SportsInterAction (http://www.pregameaction.com/?page_id=6) vs 419 OAK triple-dime bet

Analysis:Forget about all that nonsense about taking more than two touchdowns with a division rival. That's old school NFL.

New school NFL is all about passing. The Broncos are the best at it and the Raiders are one of the worst.

Peyton Manning has been unstoppable this season thanks to an upgraded receiving corps. He's thrown nine touchdown passes in two games. Manning's touchdown-to-interception ratio is up to 46-to-13 in 18 regular-season games with Denver.

The Raiders' defense is no match for Manning especially after losing safety Tyvon Branch to an ankle injury last week.

Oakland played hard in getting a cover against Indianapolis in Week 1 and then took care of the worst team in the NFL by far, Jacksonville, last Sunday at home. But now the Raiders are stepping light years up. Denver very well could be the best team in the NFL right now,

Oakland quarterback Terrelle Pryor can't throw down field. He's just dangerous with his feet. Denver won't be fooled by him. The Broncos aren't going to let Pryor run. The Raiders are not build for shootouts, or for coming from behind. So they're going to be in big trouble once they start surrendering touchdowns to Denver's high-powered offensive machine.


Don't look for a Denver letdown either following its impressive road win against the Giants last week. The Broncos hate the Raiders and this is on the Monday night stage.

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Chicago Syndicate Top Plays

MLB
Pirates
Orioles
White Sox

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LA Syndicate Top Plays

NFL - Broncos -14 (-125)

MLB
Cardinals/Nationals Under 7
Padres -110

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Halladay is 1-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 3-2, 3.33 in his last five starts.
-- Estrada is 1-0, 2.60 in his last four starts.
-- Morton is 0-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
-- Roark is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts. Wainwright is 2-0, 1.59 in his last three starts.
-- McCarthy is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.

-- Archer is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Richards is 3-0, 2.45 in his last four starts. Milone is 2-0, 3.46 in his last four outings.
-- Ventura allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his major league debut.
-- Quintana is 1-0, 1.80 in his last three starts. Happ is 1-1, 3.18 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 0-4, 6.75 in his last six starts.
-- Harang is 0-2, 7.56 in his last three starts.
-- Minor is 0-2, 4.85 in his last four starts.
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 7.11 in his last four starts.
-- Stults is 1-3, 6.05 in his last six starts.

-- WChen is 0-1, 7.36 in his last five starts.
-- Holland is 0-3, 9.31 in his last four starts. Lyles is 1-2, 7.06 in his last four.
-- Verlander is 1-4, 4.45 in his last seven starts. Pelfrey is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts.
-- Maurer is 0-1, 7.88 in his last couple starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Halladay 7-12 (6 of last 7); Eovaldi 5-16 (3 of last 6)
-- Harang 9-24; Cueto 5-10 (3 of last 4)
-- Estrada 4-19 (1 of last 7); Minor 11-30 (5 of last 11)
-- Morton 2-18; Samardzija 7-31 (0 of last 6)
-- Roark 1-3; Wainwright 10-31 (3 of last 5)
-- McCarthy 7-20; Stults 9-31 (0 of last 5)

-- Chen 5-21; Archer 8-21 (6 of last 9)
-- Lyles 8-24 (3 of last 5); Holland 6-31 (3 of last 5)
-- Verlander 9-32 (0 of last 4); Pelfrey 11-28 (4 of last 8)
-- Milone 8-25; Richards 6-15 (5 of last 5)
-- Ventura 0-1; Maurer 4-12 (1 of last 5)
-- Happ 4-16; Quintana 11-31

Totals
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Philly games.
-- Six of last eight Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last nine Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Cardinal games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Arizona games went over the total; under is 8-1-1 in last ten San Diego games.


-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa Bay games; seven of last nine Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Oakland games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Six of last eight White Sox games went over the total.


Hot teams
-- Mets/Reds both won six of their last eight games.
-- Washington won 13 of its last 15 games. Cardinals won four of their last six.
-- Padres won six of their last nine games.

-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Tigers won six of their last eight games.
-- Royals won four of their last six games.
-- AL West champ A's won ten of their last twelve games. Angels won nine of their last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies lost last three games, allowing 19 runs. Marlins lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers lost three of their last four games. Braves are 3-4 in their last seven.
-- Pirates lost five of their last seven games. Cubs lost nine of their last 12.
-- Arizona is 6-9 in its last fifteen road games.

-- Orioles are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.
-- Astros lost their last nine games, outscored 47-14. Rangers lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Twins lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Mariners lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- White Sox lost ten of their last thirteen games. Blue Jays lost eight of their last twelve games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Miami Marlins +105 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 81-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 81-90-2

Football Crusher
Oakland Raiders + Denver Broncos OVER 48.5
(System Record: 19-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 19-9

Soccer Crusher
Velez Sarsfield + Atletico Rafaela OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 460-15, won last 5 games and a push)
Overall Record: 460-394-61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Philadelphia at Miami

The Phillies look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 2-12 in its last 14 games as a home underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120). Here are all of today's picks.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.641; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.216
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over


Game 953-954: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harang) 15.719; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.682
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-250); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+220); Under


Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.495; Atlanta (Minor) 14.396
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.089; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.408
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); N/A


Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.508; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.185
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-165); Under


Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.454; San Diego (Stults) 14.480
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over


Game 963-964: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.385; Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.393
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Over


Game 965-966: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 13.688; Texas (Holland) 15.622
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-270); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-270); Under


Game 967-968: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 13.887; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.675
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 969-970: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 17.404; LA Angels (Richards) 16.048
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 971-972: Kansas City at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 16.500; Seattle (Maurer) 15.170
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Over


Game 973-974: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 15.547; White Sox (Quintana) 14.212
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Los Angeles

The Sparks look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 home games against the Mercury. Los Angeles is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 667-668: Washington at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.810; Atlanta 108.384
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Over


Game 669-670: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.163; Los Angeles 120.327
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-7 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1100-828 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Mon: White Sox -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Tampa Bay Rays -150

KC Royals -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Broncos -16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Free Play Monday Kansas City/Seattle Over 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Browns (+6) Sunday.

Monday it's the Rays.The deficit is 1473 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (PITTSBURGH) with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
68-51 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.1% 37.2 units )
16-17 this year. ( 48.5% 3.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY METS at CINCINNATI

NY METS are 29-23 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.

The average score was: NY METS (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES

Play On - Home favorites (LOS ANGELES) after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better against opponent after a game where a team made 15% of their 3 point shots or worse
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% -0.2 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA

Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) poor defensive team - allowing 73+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 115 points or less
30-8 since 1997. ( 78.9% 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after a game where they covered the spread, tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% 46.0 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.3 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

149-101-2 run

25-18-3 run last 46 plays

pod cardinals game over 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

200 Broncos -14.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You Selections for Monday, September 23rd

2013 AFC West Division Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
Oakland/Denver under 49 1/2

MLB Best Bets
New York/Cincinnati over 7 1/2
Washington/St Louis under 7
Houston/Texas under 9
Kansas City/Seattle over 7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Xpertpicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

· Play Kansas City -125 over Seattle (TOP MLB PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
10:00 PM EST

Brandon Maurer has lost 4 consecutive games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has lost 8 of the last 9 night games. Brandon Maurer has lost 4 consecutive games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has lost 7 of the last 9 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher.

================================================== ===============



· Play Tampa Bay -130 over Baltimore (BONUS MLB PLAY)—RISK 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
· Play Miami +110 over Philadelphia (BONUS MLB PLAY)—RISK 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks


Monday Football Plays




· Play OVER 49 Denver/Oakland (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
10:00 PM EST


Denver has gone OVER the total in 65 of the last 109 games coming off a win by ten points or more in their last game and they have also gone OVER the total in 50 of the last 81 home games when playing in the 1st half of the season. Denver has gone OVER the total in 106 of the last 182 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have also gone OVER the total in 147 of the last 260 games vs. conference opponents.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper


MONDAY BASEBALL


100* Play Cincinnati -220 over New York Mets (TOP MLB PLAY)


Aaron Harang has lost 15 of the last 20 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost 8 of the last 9 road games. Aaron Harang has lost 13 of the last 19 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 0-2 over the last three games with an ERA of 7.02.


================================================== ===============================




50* Play Texas -250 over Houston (BONUS MLB PLAY)
50* Play Miami +110 over Philadelphia (BONUS MLB PLAY)
50* Play Tampa Bay -130 over Baltimore(BONUS MLB PLAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper Football


MONDAY


100* Play Oakland +14.5 over Denver (NFL TOP PLAY)


Denver has lost 20 of the last 34 games against the spread when playing as a favorite of ten points or higher and they have also lost 53 of the last 98 games against the spread coming off an OVER the total in their last game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle


MONDAY BASEBALL PLAYS


10* Play Kansas City -125 over Seattle MLB TOP PLAY


Seattle has lost 72 of the last 112 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 42 of the last 75 home games. Seattle has lost 50 of the last 73 games when playing in the month of September and they have lost 20 of the last 31 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents.




5* Play Cincinnati -220 over New York Mets MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Texas -250 over Houston MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play St. Louis -150 over Washington MLB TOP PLAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle




Monday Football Play


10* Play Oakland +15 over Denver (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST


Oakland has covered the spread in 10 of the last 16 games when playing as a road underdog and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 16 games when playing in the 1st half of the season. Denver has lost 11 of the last 17 games against the spread after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game and they are allowing an average of 25 points a game on defense this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

no mlb for Monday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Capper sports Monday nfl

Oak+14.5
oak/den under 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

marquee denver over

[golden contender]

On Monday there are 3 Big selections up. In the NFL we have 2 Perfect totals systems that apply to tonight's Oakland at Denver game. In MLB we have the 5* Total of the Month from a system that averages an incredible 13 runs per game. There is also a Big Blowout system up. NFL moves to 40 games over .500 after this weekend and the Big 6* Sunday night totals winner. Free MLB Run line play below.


On Monday the Free MLB Run line system Play is on Texas at -1.5 runs. Game 966 at 8:05 eastern. Texas fits a solid system that has won 12 of 14 times and wins by 3 runs per game. We want to play on home favorites in this range that are off a road dog loss and had no errors, vs an opponent like the Astros that are off a road dog loss. Texas will look to get healthy vs an inept Houston team that has lost 10 straight and 14 of 16 vs Texas this season. Houston is 13-30 vs left handers and has lost 32 of 42 vs winning teams this year. Texas is 13-2 at home off a road loss and the Astors have lost 7 of 8 on the road off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs. Houston has J. Lyles on the mound and he has a 6.90 era in his last 3 starts and a 8,55 era vs Texas. The Rangers have D. Holland on the mound and he has won 4 of 5 vs Houston. Look for Texas to coast tonight. On Monday night we have 2 100% Totals system on Monday night football and the 5* MLB Total Of The Month from a Perfect system that averages 13 runs per game. Finally a Bog Blowout System that has Nt lost and Wins by over 3 runs per game and has Several Powerful Angles. NFL is now 40 games over. 500 the last 3+ seasons after cashing another Big day on Sunday. Message me Jump on Now and start the week big. For the free play Take Texas on the run line at -1.5 runs. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd 9/23 & Updated Records

3* (NFL) Oakland Raiders +15.5
3* (MLB) San Diego Padres ML -108

MLB TOTAL 183-179 -31 Units
27-25
47-48
109-106

NCAAF TOTAL 17-15 +6 Units
3-2
5-2
9-11

NFL TOTAL 5-13 -38 Units
0-3
3-6
2-4

SEPTEMBER TOTAL 28-36 -48 Units
1-6
9-11
18-19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

Monday

Raiders +14½ at Broncos (49½): QB Terrelle Pryor has given the Oakland offense a spark, especially in the running game, which is averaging 198 ypg. Dangerous to be laying double digits, especially against a foe that is playing with confidence. RAIDERS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Ball

Monday

Raiders +15 at Broncos: Oakland is 1-1 but opened up against some fairly weak talent. They have a chance to hold up with 15 points. RAIDERS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks September 23, 2013 6:14 AM by GT Staff

Baseball

953 New York Mets +1½ RUNS EVEN: The Mets have won three straight games and catch the Reds off a hot series with the Pirates, they have a big shot at this very inflated line.

958 Chicago Cubs +120: Live dog here as the Pirates are taking the big gag and have lost six of their last 10 games, the last place Cubbies get some satisfaction as their last season comes to an end, spoiler they will be.

960 St. Louis Cardinals -160: The Cards hold a two game advantage over the Reds and the Pirates in the NL Central with just six games left to play and the last three come at home vs. the Cubbies, Cards close it out.

964 Tampa Bay Rays -145: The Rays who have surged in the wild card race look to sweep the O’s who have packed it in with their wild card dreams down the drain.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Football Play of the Day September 23, 2013 6:19 AM by GT Staff

Monday Night Football

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos -15 at 5:40 p.m. PST

The Raiders have a good defense to keep them in the game but their past says they just will find a way not to get the cover as they have gone 1-16 ATS in games vs. a division foe when coming off a SU and ATS win, while the Broncos have gone 9-1 ATS in division games when coming off a double digit non division win.

420 Denver Broncos -15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff White

Denver -14.5
KC -125
Den/Oak over 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE WIZARD| NFL Side - Monday, Sep 23 2013 8:40PM
10 UNITS RAIDERS +15.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

DENVER BRONCOS -16

Las Vegas has a huge day yesterday. They beat the average gamblers and they beat the sharps. It was an ideal week for them. Tonight we have a huge favorite which the public is still backing. In the past few seasons big favorites have not shown up in games, but I just can’t give the Raiders much hope with a banged up and young offensive line, missing a tight end, Pryor as the main quarterback and receivers who just are not that great. Denver really has it all on offense. They will be without their left tackle for the rest of the year, but tonight against a defense with 9 new starters and one of the past years starters out of this game it will be very difficult to stop the big physical receivers, the running game and then of course the shifty Wes Welker. This is a division game so I really don’t like the spread being this high, but again there is no positive evidence to back Oakland except for the fact of just hoping they don’t lose by X amount of points. Even their best offensive player has been their kicker and he has struggled this year with a new holder in place of Shane Lechler. There is no stopping Payton Manning right now. Even the Denver special teams can put up 6 in a blink of an eye. Take the Broncos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Moore

#419 - #420 4* Oakland - Denver OVER 48.5 (8:40 edt) ESPN

Have to like the over in any game with Denver right now as they have gone over 40 points in both of their starts this season and those starts were against pretty good defenses. Denver has no love lost for Oakland so they will be very happy to pile on the points and the Denver defense has not been the best which will lead to some points for the Raiders. 42 - 27 looks to be the final score making the over the best play here. Thank you and good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DHayes2

Marlins -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

2* Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/23

Oakland Raiders / Denver Broncos UNDER 48.5 (Total Points Scored in Game) (NFL Football)
(System Record: 144-5, Won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 144-124


Also, listed below is your bonus extra picks for today:
Atlanta Braves -122 over the Milwaukee Brewers (MLB Baseball)
New York Mets / Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 (Total Runs Scored in Game) (MLB Baseball)
Toronto Blue Jays / Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 (Total Runs Scored in Game) (MLB Baseball)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

There’s a mutiny brewing on the Buccaneers’ pirate ship. Players are feuding with the head coach, the franchise is trying to give the No. 1 QB the bum’s rush, and the offense ranks 31st in the NFL averaging 11.3 points a game.

All of that has led to a 0-3 start for Tampa Bay, which takes on the Arizona Cardinals as a 2.5-point home favorite Sunday – one week away from a much-needed bye in Week 5. Bettors should beware the Bucs, who will undoubtedly be looking past Arizona and to a week away from football and the drama of the locker room.

Letdown spot

What better way to celebrate snapping a seven-game losing skid to your bitter rivals than a trip to Hawaii. The Fresno State Bulldogs, coming off a thrilling 41-40 victory over Boise State last Friday, are heading to paradise in Week 5, taking on the Warriors as 20-point suggested road favorites.

Playing in Hawaii is hard enough for visiting teams, with guys more concerned with soaking up the tropical surroundings than getting the job done on the field. Fresno State has been able to avoid that in the past, but never after a win as big as last week. A letdown looms on the islands.

Schedule spot

The MLB schedule makers have all but gift wrapped an American League Wild Card spot for the Cleveland Indians. All the Tribe has to do it tie the bow on a successful turnaround season. Cleveland, which is a half game back on Tampa Bay and gripping to one of the AL’s two wild card tickets heading into Monday, is coming off a four-game sweep of the hapless Houston Astros.

The Indians close the year with two home games versus the Chicago White Sox and a four-game road trip to play the Minnesota Twins. Both of those AL Central rivals have checked out on the season and are a combined 8-24 against the Tribe this year. Chicago is a mere 2-15 versus Cleveland, allowing an ERA north of 6.00 in those contests. A motivated Indians club is primed to finish 2013 strong and roll into the postseason.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Sharps vs. Public on Monday Night Football

Oddsmakers are piling on the points for Week 3’s Monday night finale between the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos. We talk to sportsbooks about the action on Monday Night Football and where the line could end up come kickoff:

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14, Move: -15

Some markets opened this spread as high as Denver -16.5, with a seemingly lopsided battle between AFC West rivals. According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, they opened -14.5 and took nothing but Broncos money driving the spread to -16 before sharps bought back the Raiders.

“Just yesterday afternoon we booked sharp money at +16, but instead of moving the number we adjusted the juice making the Broncos -16 (-105)/Raiders +16 (-115),” Stewart told Covers. “Only a five cent move off that wise action, but with us still submerged with money on the favorite we went back to 16 (flat) late last night. This is a game where the squares are definitely against the sharps, with the public pounding the favorite and the wiseguys taking advantage of what they deem an inflated line.”

With books scoring a big win over bettors Sunday, not much money from the weekend is hanging around Monday in the form of parlays and teasers. That has also halted plenty of people for rolling over on the Monday nighter, according to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com.

“The Monday night game normally has some residue from the Sunday games with multiples running into it – and in all fairness Denver should have been the last-leg banker for the majority of our business,” Candler told Covers. “The fact is that we pulled our punters’ pants down this weekend and gave their bums a bit of a slapping and there’s not much ‘running on money’ still alive.”

As for Monday’s total, books opened the number at 49.5 and have taken that down to 48.5. However, as with most MNF games, the recent action has been on the Over as kickoff draws closer. According to Stewart, 90 percent of total action is on the Over.

“We also have a decent amount of parlay liability on both the favorite and the over, so it’s safe to say we're going into this game big fans of the Raiders and their defense,” he says. “We desperately need them to find a way to keep Peyton Manning and his high octane offense in check.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

MLB

Cardinals -150

Cincinnati -1.5 -120

Tampa Bay -130

Chicago Cubs +1.5 -140

NFL

Broncos -14.5

Raiders/Broncos Over 49.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

OAKLAND (419) AT DENVER (420)
Latest Line: Broncos -14.5; Total: 49

The Broncos look to extend their series win streak to four (SU and ATS) when they face the Raiders on Monday night. Denver has won the past three meetings by a combined score of 101 to 43, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning has beaten Oakland five straight times, throwing for 260 YPG, 11 TD and 6 INT during this stretch. The Raiders will try to keep Manning off the field with an elite ground game chewing up 198.5 yards per game so far, led by RB Darren McFadden (177 rush yds) and QB Terrelle Pryor (162 rush yds). But Manning has been outstanding in 2013, throwing for 769 yards (9.0 YPA), 9 TD and 0 INT.
FORECASTER: Broncos 34, Raiders 16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9xSports

(MLB) 10:10PM ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS-110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wildcat (ny post)
5-1-1 ytd)

(1 unit each)

oakland + 15 (mnf)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Lean oak raiders

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Stl rl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Insiders Club

Over Raiders

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Double Dragon Sports

9 Unit Mega Hydra
Broncos -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

Double Dime Royals ML -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

3* Raiders

3* Under Raiders

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 4 opening line report: Books coming off winning Sunday
By JASON LOGAN

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.

While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.

“The Browns were a huge, huge game. We had an obscene amount of teasers on the Vikings,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The sharps and public were all on the Giants. Everybody was betting the Giants like it was free money.”

Chalk one up for the bad guys. But perhaps the betting public will have its revenge in Week 4, which has more than a few tricky spreads and totals to tangle with. Maybe the hardest game to get a handle on is the 0-3 vs. 3-0 matchup between the winless Giants and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Chiefs -4.5 but the books have watched that spread shorten to K.C. -3.5 with early money on the road team.

“I don’t know why the early money is on New York,” says Korner. “Not sure if it’s the ‘due factor’ with them or if it’s wiseguys trying to draw it down before coming back strong on gameday. I don’t see the value in them coming off a road game and heading into an even tougher road spot.”

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3, 43)

The Seahawks made a believer out of bettors by topping the 20-point spread versus Jacksonville Sunday, and books are following that with a statement spread in Week 4. Seattle is a field-goal fave in Houston and could go even higher by kickoff.

“They are the team right now and we don’t want to be caught short,” says Korner. “Seattle is drawing money at -19 and -20 and Houston hasn’t had the results to warrant them being a favorite here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Pick, 41)

Two 0-3 teams jump the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in London, England. I bet the Brits are pumped for that…

According to Korner, oddsmakers just toss out the home-field edge when factoring these games in London. And, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh both showing very little to start the year, this game was sent out with a suggested spread at a pick’em.

“What’s a better number than that?” Korner says of the pick spread. “We’re weary of the total, because of the weather there. It’s often rainy.”

The total for Sunday’s overseas showcase was sent out at 41 points. The forecast for London is calling for rain, with a chance of thunderstorms and evening showers Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10, 55)

Two of the fastest offenses in the league clash in this Week 4 track meet.

The Eagles attack is averaging 207.7 rushing yards – tops in the NFL – and 26.3 points while the Broncos are No. 1 in passing – 376 yards – and scoring, at 45 points per game heading into Monday night. Neither side is great at defense either, making for one big total.

“We put out 55 but it’s up as high as 58 out there now,” says Korner. “We’ll likely be suggesting a move up as well. Two teams known for scoring, and the Eagles don’t play any defense. The Broncos have all those offensive weapons. I could see this going higher.”

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)

The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.

“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting.”

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Guarenteed Sports Picks
Over 50

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Marco D'Angelo Betting First Look

Raiders Under 50

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Seabass Report for Monday-all 50's:
UNDER White sox
UNDER San Diego
UNDER Denver

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Sports-Junkie

BetThisPick

$500 NFL Play: Oakland/Denver UNDER 50 (-105)(Bovada)

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The Philly Godfather

Has Raiders + the points in a Delaware Park ticket

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BetThisPick's FREE play for today:

Free Pick of the Day

9/23/13 Our recommended free play is going to be in the MLB and it is on the...
WHITE SOX ML (-130)

Guys as baseball season winds down and the average bettor isn't really paying much attention to bases thanks to football!!! I see both teams equal at the plate hitting LEFTIES. Therefor we look at the pitching matchup and see Quintana for the year is sporting a 3.49 era vs his 4-6 4.82 counterpart!! This gives us reason to jump onboard with the HOME FAVORITE at a resonable price!! Quintanas last 5 home starts as a favorite he's 4-1 and I see another home start win for us as well tonight!!!!




Today's FREE play: WHITE SOX ML (-130)

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Raiders
Rangers
Reds
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ROOT

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Cleveland Insider

MLB
4.5* Twins/Tigers under 8
1* Orioles/Rays over 7

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OC Dooley:“2 UNIT” BASEBALL INTANGIBLE TOTAL (Mets at Reds UNDER 7’ in a 7:10 eastern start-------Harang versus Cueto): For those serious baseball fans who took the time to read this analysis segment you most likely remember not all that long ago when Aaron Harang was the ace of Cincinnati’s pitching staff. Due in part to injuries he has turned into a journeyman in recent campaigns and during the month of August was actually released by Seattle where is combined ERA (5.76) was extremely high. Rather than give up on the remainder of the campaign Harang instructed his agent to find a struggling squad that would give him a chance to still pitch in a major league starting rotation. After the Mets rotation suffered several major injuries including to ace Matt Harvey, there was a vacancy as Harang was brought into to “eat up innings” so to speak. Every appearance for Harang in a New York uniform is critical as the veteran is attempting to prove his worth for a 2014 contract and in the most recent pair of assignments has racked by a grand total of 18 different STRIKEOUT victims. While Harang returns to his professional roots tonight, the start for Cincinnati’s former rotation ace Johnny Cueto is also critical as he attempts to prove his worth for the postseason. Due to back problems Cueto has been on the disabled list three different times. In his latest recovery bout the Reds did not have a chance to send him out on a rehabilitation assignment because the minor league season has concluded. A healthy Cueto would be a huge plus for Cincinnati as rookie starter Tony Cingrani recently was forced out of an appearance due to back spasms. This is an excellent percentage wager as for the entire season to date after three consecutive games against a “divisional” opponent Cincinnati has gone an incredible 11-1 UNDER/HOME

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Kelso 10 raiders 10 under 5 parley with both

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Under In The Football Total Of The Month

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