10-9-13

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::clap::

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Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 Team: Baylor Bears (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

I've said it before, and I'll make no apologies for saying it again. The Bears might just be the best team in the country. I mean, outside of Oregon, what other team could put up 70 points three weeks in a row while holding opponents to an average of 16.3 points?

This week's 73-42 thrashing of West Virginia should put the rest of the country on notice: This Baylor team is the real deal. West Virginia might not be a top 25 team, but it did upset the Oklahoma State Cowboys and its defense limited the Sooners to just 16 points in a losing effort in Oklahoma.

Most overrated Top 25 Team: South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Gamecocks have not looked good, failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. Making matters worse for the underachieving squad is that their star DE Jadeveon Clowney sat out last week with what ESPN's Tim Koen referred to as a "minor or non-existant injury."

Coach Steve Spurrier was not at all happy about Clowney's decision not to play and he's criticized his player publicly, saying "If Clowney wants to play, we will welcome him to come play for the team if he wants. But if he doesn't want to play, he doesn't have to play. Simple as that."

Unranked team that should be ranked: Auburn Tigers (4-1 SU, 4-0 SU)

The Tigers are 4-1, with their only loss coming to LSU. Last week's win over Ole Miss puts them at 2-1 in the SEC and with an easy game upcoming, you can expect to see them in the Top 25 next week. Of course, life in the SEC isn't easy. And with games against Texas A&M and Alabama still to come, the party might not last long.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.


But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.

NCAAF

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)

This battle for perhaps the grossest prize in college football - Old Brass Spittoon - saw the spread climb as high as MSU -10 before money pushed it below the key numbers.

The Hoosiers are coming off a big win over Penn State and have an offense that can stack up the yards. The Spartans, on the other hand, do little with the football and a spread hovering on double figures seems like a lot of points for a team that can’t score.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at UMass Minutemen (-3, 43)

How low can you go on the total for a game between the two worst offensive teams in college football?

Miami (Ohio) ranked 124th in scoring, averaging just 8.8 points through its first five winless games, and is fresh off the firing of head coach Don Treadwell. The only team behind it in the offensive stats is UMass, which is mustering a mere touchdown per contest.

According to Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, the suggested total for this listless showdown is 43 points. The Redhawks and Minutemen have a combined 1-9 over/under record on the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL line watch: Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

3* St Louis Cardinals -149

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Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Ohio Bobcats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Central Michigan

Ohio opened its season with a blowout loss to Louisville, but the schedule has softened and the floodgates have opened. The Bobcats are averaging 35.5 points in their last four games, including a 43-3 road rout of Akron in their Mid-American Conference opener. On the other side of the ball, they have allowed a grand total of three points in their last two contests.

Saturday’s opponent, Central Michigan, is 2-4 with a quartet of double-digit losses. The Chippewas are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records and 1-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with winning home records. Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home.

Team to beware: Air Force Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

This week: +4 vs. San Diego State

The government shutdown didn’t stop last weekend’s game between Air Force and Navy, but the Falcons’ season can’t be shut down soon enough. They have lost five in a row to drop to 1-5, with four of their five setbacks coming by at least 18 points. Air Force is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 overall, 0-5 ATS in its last five home games, and 0-5 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. They are 0-4 ATS in their last five against San Diego State.

As for the Aztecs, they handled Air Force 28-9 last season and have returned 16 starters. They average 145.5 yards per game on the ground in 2013 and are going up against a Falcons defense that gives up 222.5 rushing yards per outing. SDSU freshman Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 7.5 yards on 44 carries.

Total team: San Jose State Spartans (2-3 SU, 2-3 O/U)

This week: 58 at Colorado State

Since shutting out Sacramento State in its season opener, San Jose State has allowed at least 27 points in four straight contests, including 40 or more in two of its three losses. The Spartans are still without a slew of defensive players, including impact performers like safety Brandon Monroe, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and linebacker Derek Muaava. On the bright side, SJSU’s passing offense is churning out 306.8 yards per game behind senior quarterback David Fales.

The Over is 6-1 in the Spartans’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last seven against Mountain West opposition, and 4-0 in their last four following a bye week. Colorado State also had an off week to prepare for this one. The Over is 7-2 in the Rams’ last nine following a bye week and 7-2 in their last nine against teams with losing records.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pirates at Cardinals: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-148, 6.5)

Series tied 2-2.

St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny gambled and won on his rookie sensation and now gets to play his ace in the highest-stakes game of the season. Matheny will send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Matheny resisted the urge to pitch Wainwright in Game 4 and was rewarded when 22-year-old Michael Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth in a 2-1 victory.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is rolling the dice with his pitching staff, bypassing Game 1 starter A.J. Burnett in favor of rookie Gerrit Cole, who was outstanding in winning Game 2. Pittsburgh has not captured a postseason series in 34 years and faces the daunting task of winning a deciding game on the road against a team that is 7-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011. The Pirates' only hit in Game 4 came on a home run by Pedro Alvarez, his third of the series.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SE at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. RH Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.29)

Cole pitched more like a staff ace than a 23-year-old rookie in Game 2, allowing only one run on two hits in six innings to win his fifth consecutive start. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft has yielded five runs during his winning streak and has permitted more than five hits only once in his last six outings. He thrived away from Pittsburgh with a 4-2 mark and 2.38 ERA in seven regular-season road starts.

Wainwright was staked to an early seven-run lead and dominated in Game 1, limiting the Pirates to one run on three hits and striking out nine over seven innings. A winner of four straight starts, he stymied Pittsburgh on Sept. 7 in St. Louis, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames. Wainwright was 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and four complete games in 17 home starts while holding hitters to a .217 batting average.

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-1-4 in Wainwright's last 18 starts vs. Pirates.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 33-15-4 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis.
* Pirates are 2-6 in the last eight meetings.

WALK-OFFS:

1. St. Louis was 54-27 at home during the regular season, the second-best record in the majors behind Atlanta.

2. Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen was 12-for-28 against Wainwright during the regular season and 1-for-3 off him in Game 1.

3. Both second baseman are struggling - St. Louis' Matt Carpenter is 1-for-15 and Pittsburgh's Neil Walker is 0-for-16 in the series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

The Cardinals look to close out the series and build on their 4-0 record in Adam Wainwright's last 4 starts with the run total set at 6 1/2 or lower. St. Louis is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.441; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.814
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Chicago at St. Louis

The Blackhawks look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games against the Blues. Chicago is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9
Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 1-2: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.171; St. Louis 12.090
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105); Under


Game 3-4: Montreal at Calgary (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.525; Calgary 11.032
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Over


Game 5-6: Ottawa at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.592; Los Angeles 11.947
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-145); Over

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Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates + St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 6.5
(System Record: 91-7, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 91-95-2

Football Crusher
Arizona +6 over USC
(System Record: 23-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 23-15

Soccer Crusher
Vasco da Gama + Fluminense UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 466-16, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 466-400-65

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bookiemonsters
156-109-3 run
32-26-4 run last 62 plays

pod stl cardinals -150

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Tigers on Tuesday and likes the Cardinals on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1339 sirignanos.

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Cappers Access

Cardinals -156

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Montreal/Calgary over 5.5

Kings -144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

20 Dimes - UNDER the posted total in the Pirates/Cardinals game. Specify pitchers Wainwright and Cole.

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Scott Spreitzer

NLDS GOY St. Louis

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Dave Price

STL CARDS

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season, in October games
77-65 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% 35.9 units )
2-11 this year. ( 15.4% -8.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH is 20-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL CHICAGO at ST LOUIS
Play On - Any team against the money line (ST LOUIS) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
75-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% 39.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NHL MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play Against - A underdog against the money line (CALGARY) good offensive team - scoring 2.85+ goals/game on the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
71-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.2% 38.2 units )

NHL MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play On - Home teams against the money line (CALGARY) poor team - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game, after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games
44-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.8% 24.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields
by Mark Kern

Wednesday, October 9 – 11:30 p.m. ET
Barueri, Brazil
Demian Maia (18-4) vs. Jake Shields (28-6-1)

Welterweight bout
Line: Maia -285, Shields +225
Two UFC veterans square off at UFC Fight Night in Brazil on Wednesday night as Jake Shields will look to defeat No. 4-ranked Demian Maia in the main event.

This is a very intriguing matchup as it puts two of the most successful grapplers in the UFC in the Octagon against each other. Since losing to Chris Weidman on Jan. 28, 2012, Maia has looked very impressive in winning his past three fights. His last match against Jon Fitch at UFC 156 on Feb. 2 was a very tough and grueling bout, but he was able to do enough to get the unanimous victory. At No. 4 in the welterweight class, Maia has a chance to move up the ladder and enter the conversation for a title bout, but he is going to have to take care of Jake Shields, who is out to prove he is still the same fighter he used to be. Things seemed to be going well for Shields after he defeated Ed Herman at UFC 150 in August of 2012. However, he failed a drug test after the fight, and was suspended six months as his punishment. He was able to get a victory at UFC 161 on June 15 over Tyron Woodley, but it was not the kind of dominating victory that Dana White wanted to see coming off suspension. Shields has shown the ability to successfully win the big match, as he has defeated the likes of Dan Henderson and Martin Kampmann. Once again, Shields has the opportunity to show the UFC world that he has put the past behind him.

However, MAIA is too big and strong for Shields, and will win the match in dominating fashion.

Maia came into UFC as a guy that was thought to be able to take over the sport. After winning six of his first seven matches, he got the opportunity to fight Anderson Silva for the belt on April 10, 2010, but lost a five-round unanimous decision. Of his 18 career MMA victories, nine of them have been by way of submission, and of his dozen UFC victories, six have been by submission. At UFC 153, Maia submitted Rick Story in the first round by way of a neck crank. He must use that grappling part of his game, as Shields is the much better striker of the two, with 1.82 strikes landed per minute for Maia, compared to 2.74 strikes landed per minute for Shields. For the 35-year-old Maia, he has been very close to a title once in his career, and with a win, could inch closer to earning another shot at a UFC championship. However, he must stay focused on the task at hand, and not allow Shields to get comfortable in the match.

There is no doubt that with everything that has happened in his past, this is a must-win for the 34-year-old Shields. Of his 28 career victories, 15 have come by decision. His cardio has never been questioned, and he has shown on numerous occasions that he can go the distance in a match without becoming fatigued. He was once known as one of the best submission finishers in the UFC, piling up 10 career submission victories, but has not won a match in that fashion since defeated Robbie Lawler in 2009. He really struggles with his takedown defense, blocking just 37.5 percent of the opposition’s attempted takedowns, but his 33.1% takedown accuracy is slightly better than Maia's 32.7% clip. If Shields is going to win this match, he must not allow Maia to get his hands on him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC Fight Night 29: Silva vs. Hamill
by Mark Kern

Wednesday, October 9 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Barueri, Brazil
Thiago Silva (15-3) vs. Matt Hamill (12-4)

Light heavyweight bout
Line: Silva -340, Hamill +260
Thiago Silva looks to build off his last victory as he goes up against one of the toughest fighters in UFC history in Matt “The Hammer” Hamill at UFC Fight Night in Brazil on Wednesday night.

In his victory over Rafael Cavalcante on June 8, Silva showed his knockout ability by delivering the decisive blow with just 30 seconds to go in the first round. Silva has faced some of the very best that the sport has to offer, and taken them the distance. His last two losses are to Rashad Evans and Alexander Gustafsson, who showed how special he is last month by taking Jon Jones the distance. Silva will be going up against Hamill, who is one of the best stories in all of UFC. He is also the only fighter who has a victory over Jon Jones on his resume, although it was because Jones got disqualified for illegal elbows. But Hamill has an impressive list of victories, including 2010 wins over both Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine. He is a terrific wrestler, something that Silva has struggled with at times.

However, in the end, it will not matter as SILVA is just too big and powerful for Hamill. Look for this match to end very quickly.

There is no doubt how Silva wants to end this match, and that is by way of the knockout. Of his 15 career victories, 13 of them have come by way of knockout. He has extreme power in his fists, and is looking to turn the fight into a brawl, as five of his past nine fights have ended in the first round. Silva lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute, and is very accurate, connecting on 51 percent of those strikes. In those defeats to Evans and Gustafsson, he showed better than expected cardio by going the distance against those fighters. While Silva is not likely to finish a match with a submission, he has the ability to score points by way of takedown. He has a takedown accuracy of 47 percent, which is much better than the great wrestler Hamill (36 percent). If Silva comes out focused and takes care of business, he should be able to get the victory. However, if there is one thing that many UFC fighters have learned though the years, it is to not overlook Hamill.

Of Hamill’s 12 victories, six have come by way of knockout and six by decision. He does an outstanding job of wearing down his opponents and gaining points throughout the fight to secure the victory. Even though he has the six victories by way of knockout, the last thing he really wants to do is go punch-for-punch against a guy with the power of Silva. Hamil's past three victories have come by way of decision, including an impressive UFC 121 victory over Tito Ortiz. Hamill, who is giving one inch to Silva, has a tremendous 92% takedowns defended rate. The one thing known about Hamill is that he will keep fighting the entire bout. If he can survive an early flurry of punches thrown by Silva, then there is a chance for him to steal a victory, which would be his seventh in his past nine bouts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

500* Over 6.5 - Pirates/Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole, Wainwright clash in Game 5 Wednesday
by Robert Livingston

National League Division Series
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:07 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -155, Pittsburgh +145, Total: 6.5

The Cardinals return home for the deciding Game 5 of this NLDS series as they will look to put the Pirates’ season to an end.

Pittsburgh had a chance to finish this series off at home, having built a 2-1 series advantage, but they were nearly no-hit by rookie Michael Wacha and ultimately lost 2-1, sending the series back to Busch Stadium. The Pirates will start their own rookie phenom Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.14 ERA), in hopes to keep their improbable season alive, earning the start over A.J. Burnett, who started Game 1, but was hit hard (2 IP, 7 ER). Cole will have his work cut out for him against Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.90 ERA), who easily led the Cardinals to a 9-1 rout when he pitched in Game 1. The Pirates have been a respectable road team all year, going 45-38 away from home, but the Cardinals were one of the majors' best at home with a 55-28 mark. That has included winning 7-of-11 games at Busch Stadium against the Pirates, although their division rival still holds the series edge in 2013 at 12-11.

The 23-year-old Cole (1.14 WHIP) showed phenomenal poise in his first postseason start, evening up the series at one with a one-run, two-hit effort over six innings in which he struck out five and walked only one batter. That’s been the story of his season as he has posted 105 strikeouts and walked only 29 in 123.1 innings while limiting opponents to only eight home runs. The lone run he allowed in Game 2 was a homer to C Yadier Molina, and that was his only career start against the Redbirds. Cole hasn't lost since Aug. 29, leading his team to six straight wins where he has personally gone 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, fanning 44 batters in 38 innings. And even though he’s a rookie, don’t expect any inconsistency from him, as he has allowed four earned runs just once in 20 starts season, leading the Pirates to a 13-7 record. That sort of consistency makes things easier for the Pittsburgh bullpen, which is 31-20 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 56 saves (79% success rate) in 2013, though those figures are slightly worse on the road where Pirates relievers are 13-11 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Wainwright (1.07 WHIP) was brilliant in his first postseason start of 2013, giving up one run on three hits in seven innings of work while piling up nine strikeouts and zero walks. That one run came on a homer by Pedro Alvarez, who has three jacks in the four games against the Cardinals this series. Though Wainwright has pitched quite well against the Pirates this season, going 2-0 (team 3-1) with three quality starts and a 2.57 ERA, he hasn’t always been so good against them. Although he has a 10-4 career record (team 12-7) versus Pittsburgh, that has come with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Alvarez has two career home runs against Wainwright despite a .227 batting average (5-for-22) while others such as OF Andrew McCutchen (.419 BA, 710 SLG in 31 AB) and C Russell Martin (.370 BA, .469 OBP in 27 AB) have regularly gotten the best of Wainwright. If the right-hander struggles for some reason, he is supported by a bullpen that looked brilliant finishing off Game 4 with 1.2 scoreless innings, and now has a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the NLDS, and a 3.42 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the entire season. Those numbers have been worse at Busch Stadium though, where St. Louis relievers carry a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Pitt (mlb)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had Np on Tuesday.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" likes the Cardinals -$150/Pirates.

"Mr Chalk" is 1-1 -$100 for the week 106-68 +$500 for the 2013 MLB season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

121 Buff -10
137 Kent +15.5
192 N Tex -5.5
146 UTSA +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks October 09, 2013 6:23 AM by GT Staff

Baseball Divisional Playoffs

952 St. Louis Cardinals -150: The pressure is getting to the Pirates and now they find their backs to the wall in St. Louis in a very hostile atmosphere. Their bats have gone silent as their magical season comes to an end.

NHL Hockey

3 Montreal Canadiens / 4 Calgary Flames OVER 5½ GOALS: Montreal plays little defense especially on the road as their last 14 of 19 road games have gone over the listed total with three going under and two ties.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ike from refpicks over 5.5 Blackhawks vs Blues

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Play of the Day October 09, 2013 6:28 AM by GT Staff

Baseball Divisional Playoffs

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals at 5:05 p.m. PST on TBS

Tight will be the name of tonight’s game with both teams being ultra careful and both managers will take no chances with their starters. Neither team pounding the ball as we look for a very low scoring affair.

951 Pittsburgh Pirates / 952 St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 6½ RUNS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS----Randy Rose
Risking 5 Units (St.Louis Cardinals-1.5)(Run/Line)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers NHL (12-9, +11.84 YTD) Ottawa @ LOS ANGELES
Ottawa +133 over LOS ANGELES
BEST LINE: Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) +133
OT included. The Senators have yet to play at home and they have yet to lose in regulation, picking up three out of a possible four points. Ottawa blew a two-goal, third period lead to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night, losing it in OT, but not finishing is a rare occurrence for this group. The Sens are a solid, balanced team with depth, goaltending, scoring and strong defense. They’ll roll out four high caliber lines that just keep on coming with a relentless system that forces the opposition into making bad decisions. This is a good hockey team that almost always has a chance to win. With four games left on the Senators six-game trip to begin the year, they figure to keep pushing hard.
Marc Andre Fleury was considered at one time to be one of the best goaltenders in the world. He has a Stanley Cup, two silver medals and one gold medal at the Olympics and he is also a former all-star. The he lost it. There was a former pitcher for the Cardinals named Rick Ankiel, who in his first full year at the age of 20 in 2000 was second in the NL (behind Randy Johnson) with 194 strikeouts and was whiffing an average of 9.9 batters per nine innings. He received The Sporting News Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award. In the playoffs of that year, Ankiel started Game 1 of the NLDS, walked four batters and threw 5 wild pitches in three innings before being removed. In his next start, in Game 2 of the NLCS, Ankiel was removed in the first inning after throwing 20 pitches, two of which sailed over the head of the catcher and three others that were wild pitches. Ankiel was sent to the minors where he walked 25 batters in 17 innings and never pitched in the majors again. He lost it too. We mention this because we see Jonathan Quick of the Kings heading down a similar road. Quick was inconsistent all of last year and in his last two games, he’s allowed seven goals on 55 shots, not to mention that well-documented gaffe against the Rangers the other night and at least three other soft goals. L.A. is now 1-2 with losses to the Jets and Rangers. Its only victory came in OT against Minnesota. L.A. is not a team you want to lay juice with right now and Quick is not a goaltender you want be backing until he shows us something different.

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Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -132 over the Ottawa Senators
(System Record: 1-0)
Overall Record: 1-0

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Jimmy Boyd

3* St Louis Cardinals -149
This might have been upgraded or we just rated it wrong yesterday.
4* (MLB) St Louis Cardinals ML -149

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Winning Angle Sports

Pittsburgh +150 over St. Louis (TOP PLAY)

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Inside Sports Report

4* Pitt/Stl under 6 1/2

[DaKid]

We get hacked again?

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Brandon Lang

20 Dimes - UNDER the posted total in the Pirates/Cardinals game. Specify pitchers Wainwright and Cole.

[Mr. IWS]

We get hacked again?

Nah. I did the latest updated for vbulletin 4.2.2 and apparently the add-ons like the chat box werent compatable with it and everything went haywire.

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Brad Wilton

60 DIME

PITT/STL UNDER 6 1/2

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9xSports


(MLB) 8:05PM ST.LOUIS CARDINALS-1 (-111)

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NHLPredictions

Kevin's Pick(s):
The Islanders cruised to a 6-1 victory against the Coyotes to give us an easy winner on my lone play for the night. Kyle had the Canucks in regulation, and although they won, it took them an overtime goal to do it. Vancouver outshot the Devils 32-23 but couldn't cash us a regulation win. Only three games on the NHL board tonight (http://www.therxforum.com/x-apple-data-detectors://1), and I've got one play going.
2 UNIT = Ottawa Senators @ Los Angeles Kings - OVER 5 GOALS (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
The Senators have started the season off with a 1-0 win in Buffalo and a 5-4 shootout loss in Toronto on Saturday night (http://www.therxforum.com/x-apple-data-detectors://4). They now head out to the West Coast for a road trip vs some Western Conference teams. The Kings started with two straight road games winning their season opener 3-2 in a shootout vs Minnesota, before losing 5-3 to Winnipeg on Friday. They returned home for their home opener on Monday losing 3-1 to New York. Ottawa has been playing pretty exciting hockey, although just two games into their season. They are 2nd in the league with 41 shots on goal per game, and also last in the league giving up 38.5 shots against per game. The Kings are averaging 27.7 shots per game and giving up 30 against. While Craig Anderson has been playing very solid for the Sens with a .948 SV%, the same can't be said for Jonathan Quick who is off to a slow start with a 3.18 GAA and .893 SV%. I'll take the OVER with the total at 5 and a good price.
Kyle's Pick(s):
-- No play today

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Seabass:
50 Pirates

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Playersbet 3 units St Louis

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TMC Sports Advisors

Cardinals

Pittsburgh/Saint Louis Over 6.5

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LT Lock

Pirates +145

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OC Dooley:
“1 UNIT” NATIONAL LEAGUE BASEBALL PLAYOFF TOTAL (Pirates at Cardinals OVER 6’ in an 8:07 eastern start on TBS-----Cole versus Wainwright): It is easy to see why we have a low-balled total since game-four of this National League Divisional series (2-1 final) was extremely low scoring as host Pittsburgh was able to compile just ONE HIT. In addition St. Louis sends staff ace and the only veteran member of the staff Adam Wainwright to the mound. But it should be pointed out that the Cardinals highest scoring output in this series was the opener with Wainwright on the mound. This evening is also the second time this season that the various Cardinals batters have a chance to face impressive Pittsburgh rookie hurler Gerrit Cole who handcuffed them in the game-two. This has basically been a very low scoring series for the St. Louis offense which lead all of baseball during the regular season with “runners in scoring position” which makes this a law-of-averages wager. While Pittsburgh is built on pitching centerfielder Andew McCutchen is a bonifide MVP candidate and is showing it (.357 batting average) in this series. His teammate Pedro Alvarez has now driven in a run in all 5 of the postseason games played by the Pirates so far. Not only did Alvarez tie for the National League homerun title in the regular season, he has already gone deep three different times in this set versus St. Louis pitching. For those into percentages this is an outstanding wager as 8 of the most recent ten games between the Pirates and Cardinals in St. Louis have gone OVER the total. But the big news is that in his career when facing the various personnel in the Pittsburgh batting order, Adam Wainwright has gone an incredible “13-2” OVER the number

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Joe Gavazzi

MLB
Pittsburgh (Cole) at St. Louis (Wainwright) (-155) 8:00 ET TBS
4* St. Louis (-155)

Both Cole and Wainwright are in great current form. Cole enters today with a recent record of 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA. In game 2 of this series, Cole beat St. Louis 7-1. In 7 road starts this year, Cole has spun a 2.38 ERA. Wainwright has been just as efficient and clearly has more experience than his rookie counterpart. Similar to Cole, Wainwright is 5-0 in his last 6 starts and allowed just 1R in 7 IP of a 9-1 St. Louis victory to open this series. From this mound in 17 starts, Wainwright had a 2.53 ERA. For the season, the Pirates lead the series 12-11. There, however, the similarities end. For current form, the home field and the experience factor, all greatly favor St. Louis. Though the Pirates have 97 wins for the season, they limp into this game on a 27-26 run, though 6-2 of late. St. Louis with 99 wins for the season is on runs of 30-15 and 18-7. The Cards veteran experience has shown in recent playoff campaigns. St. Louis is now 7-1 in elimination games. A further advantage is a home field where St. Louis is 55-28 for the season including 21-4 recently and 5-1 vs. the Pirates of late in which the Cards have outscored the Bucs 43-20. Though the price is too big to pull the trigger for anything strong against Cole and the Pirates, there is enough evidence to indicate that St. Louis is your winner tonight.

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Bob Balfe

MLB
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -1.5
(Wainwright/Cole)

There is only one play here and that is the home team Cardinals. Pittsburgh has impressed all year, but the talent level is clearly one sided and the Cardinals should run away with this at home. They have been in these spots before. They won a world series in an elimination game. Pittsburgh is a team everyone in baseball should respect. I like the run line because I think St. Louis is much more equipped to win this one big so there is no chance of Pittsburgh stealing this game. Take the Cardinals.

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Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Pirates +150

Under 6.5 -115 Pitt/Cardinals

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spartan NHL Money Line Wed, 10/09/13 - 8:05 PM

dime bet - 2 STL (-119) vs 1 CHI

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DHayes

1* Pirates 1st 5 +.5 -115

1* Pirates +1.5 -160