10-13-13

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::clap::

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NFL Week 6 Opening Line Report Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?
by Jason Logan

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons hosting the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.

But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.

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Bills' Spread Moves Two Points with Lewis as Week 6 QB

The Buffalo Bills will hand the offense to backup QB Thad Lewis when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

Buffalo, which opened as a 7.5-point underdog and has since jumped to +9.5, lost rookie starter E.J. Manuel to a sprained right knee in this Thursday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns. He is expected to miss at least three weeks.

The Bills were already without second-string QB Kevin Kolb, who is out with a concussion, and were forced to promote Lewis from the practice squad. They tried out free agents Dennis Dixon and Pat White but decided to go with Lewis over third-stringer Jeff Tuel, who was just 8 of 20 for 80 yards and threw a critical interception for a TD in relief of Manuel Thursday. Lewis has one career start while with the Browns in 2012.

The total for Sunday’s game opened at 42.5 but is coming up as low as 39 points in Las Vegas.

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NFL Line Watch Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to Wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to Watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

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See spot. See spot bet This week's best spot bet opportunities
by Jason Logan

Letdown Spot

Neither the Broncos nor the Jaguars have shown any reason for bettors to doubt Denver’s ability to cover this historic spread. Peyton Manning & Co. posted 51 points in a shootout in Dallas while Jacksonville made St. Louis look like…, well, Denver in a 34-20 loss Sunday. While the points are stacked against the Broncos, the odds seem to be in their favor.

Denver, however, is coming off a huge emotional win versus the Cowboys, its only close call of the season, and will also be looking past the Jaguars – the dreaded sandwich spot, a perfect storm for situational bettors. The Broncos have a trip to Indianapolis for Manning’s homecoming in Week 7 – his first game against the Colts since they cut ties and sided with QB Andrew Luck. It seems like the only ones stopping Denver from covering this pile of chalk is itself.

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Book: Gronkowski won't do much for Patriots' odds

The New England Patriots are expected to have star TE Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup when the team hosts the New Orleans Saints Sunday, according to a USA TODAY Sports source.

Oddsmakers opened the Patriots as big as 3-point home favorites but that was bet down to -1 with action on the undefeated Saints. New England suffered its first loss of the season at Cincinnati last Sunday, falling short on a would-be, game-winning drive in the driving Ohio rain.

“I don't think his return will impact the odds for this week’s game against the Saints,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSport. “The way the Saints are playing, I could see us moving them to the favorite in this game. “

Gronkowski has yet to play this season while recovering from offseason back surgery. He was QB Tom Brady’s favorite red-zone target last season, catching 11 TDs to go along with 790 receiving yards.

Gronkowski’s slow recovery, and former TE Aaron Hernandez’s murder investigation, has left New England without its top two tight ends from 2012. Current TEs Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan have combined for only four catches and 39 yards with one touchdown.

“It’s also hard to say how much Gronk is worth without his side kick (Aaron) Hernandez,” says Stewart. “Defenses will roll double coverage to him to eliminate him from the game.”

The total for Sunday’s showdown with the Saints is set at 49.5 points.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL ST LOUIS at HOUSTON

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NFL DETROIT at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more
25-7 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.1% 0.0 units )

NFL TENNESSEE at SEATTLE
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total off an upset loss as a road favorite, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Teaser 7pts
Tampa Bay and Houston

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Odds for Week 6 of the NFL season have been up since the weekend and books have already made some major adjustments to the lines as of Wednesday. We talk to sportsbooks and oddsmakers about the biggest mid-week line moves:

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -10, Move: -8.5

Apparently, the early money isn’t sold on the Chiefs' perfect record and expects a stumble when the Raiders come to Arrowhead. This line has dropped from the key number of 10, but should go back up when the public comes in on the undefeated home favorite Sunday.

“Yeah, Oakland looked good and that's what's driving the early money. But we really like the Chiefs side here,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says. “That Chiefs money is looming and you should expect to get it while you're at this low level early in the week.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: +1, Move: +3, Move: +2

Early money moved this spread up to a field goal, however, injuries to the Packers' linebacker corps have trimmed a point off that line. Standout LB Clay Matthews is out for at least a month with a broken thumb.

“The problems for Green Bay are those injuries and that Baltimore is getting healthy at the right time in a weak division,” Aron Black of bet365 (http://www.bet365.com/).com told Covers. “A big game for both teams, with action steady on Baltimore with the early lines but coming back on Green Bay at -2. Baltimore action is about 2.5/1 to Green Bay on the spread.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets – Open: +3, Move: -3

Before the Jets shocked the Falcons on Monday Night Football, New York was a field-goal underdog at home in Week 6. However, that impressive performance has swayed early action, moving this line as many as six points at some markets.

“There will be many kicking themselves for not taking New york before the move,” says Black. “We are pretty light on Jets action, but are seeing Pittsburgh action as a small dog. A definite ‘who knows what will happen?’ game.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos – Open: -28, Move: -26.5

The early money isn’t quick to give the most points in NFL history and has moved this historic spread down 1.5 points and under four touchdowns. According to Black, action on Denver is outnumbering Jacksonville at a 2/1 pace and he could see this line coming back up to 27.5 or a light -28 by kickoff Sunday afternoon.

“If anyone likes the Jags to do anything decent in this game, stay away from the spread and find the lowest Jaguars team total you can and go over,” says Black. “One thing that Denver has proved so far is, if not for such a dominant pass game they would be getting tore up by pundits for the lack of defense. If Denver scores the expected six or so TDs, then Jacksonville will at least get many opportunities to score themselves.”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6

Even though the Cowboys lost to Denver last weekend, the betting market was more than impressed with Dallas’ effort – enough to tack two points on the opening spread for this NFC East rivalry. That may be giving Big D too much credit against a desperate Redskins squad.

“Dallas' showing versus Denver was impressive but we have a sneaking suspicion of a letdown here,” says Korner. “Washington needs a boost themselves and this is the venue to turn things around.”

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Inside the stats: 5-0 NCF teams beware Game 6 trend
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings:

Leaking oil

When a team has been out gained in each of its three previous games it is refered to them as “leaking oil”.

Like a bad engine not hitting on all cylinders, they not only burn combustion but money as well, especially when cast in to the role of a favorite.

There have been six college football and three NFL teams that have been installed as “leaking oil” favorites this season. Collectively they are 1-8 ATS (0-6 CFB; 1-2 NFL).

Last week saw Southern Mississippi (-16) and the Miami Dolphins (-3) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.

This week’s Pennzoil plays would be against: Arkansas State, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Troy in college football, along with the Vikings in the NFL.

5-0 fat cats

It’s the time of the season in which undefeated college football teams begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game – especially those squads that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.

Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to playing on these 5-0 clubs as Game 6 is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these fat cats. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 260-112-6 SU and 161-186-5 ATS overall. Hence, the bubble bursts over 30 percent of the time in Game 6 situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.

Worse, if these guys find themselves either pick or favored in a conference game, they dip to 62-88-3 ATS.

The week’s list includes the likes of Louisville on Thursday, along with Clemson, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas Tech on Saturday.

And if these same 5-0 teams won 10 or fewer regular season games last season, and are off a spread win of nine or more points in their last game, they fall to 14-34-1 ATS, including 3-16 ATS if they are home and allowed 21 or fewer points in their last game.

As one of our all time favorite bands - the Traveling Wilburys - once said, it just might be the “End Of The Line” for the Red Raiders and the Tigers this weekend.

Double entendres

As you know, we enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning games “inside-out”.

When their opponent suffered a loss, yet won the stats, these become double-entendres - or matchups of two teams off completely opposite SU and ITS (In The Stats) results.

No less the five games dot the NFL schedule this week involving double-entendres. They include (with the game loser/stat winner listed first: Carolina-Minnesota, Houston-St. Louis, Jacksonville-Denver, Pittsburgh-N.Y. Jets and San Diego-Indianapolis.

The Chargers-Colts clash features both teams off 100-yard inside-out results.

Highs and lows

Last week, there were some really high-scoring games (99 points in Dallas, 62 points in Indianapolis, 61 points in Cleveland) and some low- scoring games (19 points in Cincinnati, 28 points in Arizona, 31 points in Green Bay).

After five weeks the oddsmakers have done a very good job balancing out their totals, with 40 Overs and 37 Unders.

The best Over situations have been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC), going 19-8 O/U on the season, including 4-1 O/U last week.

Stat of the Week

USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron was 0-23 straight up overall in games versus .500 or greater opponents as a head coach at Ole Miss.

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NFL home teams covering at almost 60 percent rate

Home is where the heart – and money – is through the first five weeks of the 2013 NFL season.

Heading into Week 6’s schedule, home teams have gone 44-30-3 ATS (59.46%), with home favorites boasting a 27-19-3 (58.7%) ATS mark and home underdogs going 17-11-0 (60.71%) against the spread.

There are 11 teams that are perfect ATS at home this season – and no, Denver is not one of them (2-0-1 ATS). Of those teams, four are 3-0 ATS as hosts: the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are perhaps the biggest shocker on this list, having gone 1-7 ATS inside AT&T Stadium – formerly Cowboys Stadium – last season. Dallas is home to the Washington Redskins as a 6-point home favorite this Sunday.

The other 3-0 ATS home winner back on familiar turf in Week 6 are the Buffalo Bills, who welcome the Bengals to Ralph Wilson Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday.

Last week, home teams went 9-5 ATS, including a 5-2 ATS mark from home underdogs.

Note: There are seven teams which have failed to cover a single spread at home this season: Philadelphia, Chicago (0-2-1 ATS), Washington, Houston, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and the New York Giants.

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Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (plus bonus cookie)

NYJ -2 (27-20)
NO +2.5 (26-23)
WASH +5.5 (27-28)
CIN -7 (28-13)
TB +1.5 (24-23)
IND -1.5 (31-23)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington at Dallas (Sunday 10/13 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 53 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)

The "game of the year" last week between Dallas and the Denver Broncos saw nearly 100 points scored. That game garnered a ton of attention and it has pushed the total a bit higher here for this one vs. Washington. This is a huge division rivalry game, and these types of games are often played with a lot of defensive intensity. There is more at stake here, as the loser will suffer their fourth loss, so I do expect this one to be played tough in the trenches. Last year these teams played to totals of 47 and 48, so there is definitely some wiggle room as the total is set too high. Washington has not scored a ton of points in any game this season as RGII continues to struggle to get healthy after knee surgery. The Skins defense has allowed fewer points in consecutive games, and is now coming off a bye. Dallas has shown the ability to clamp down on defense after allowing 30+ in their previous game, and have gone 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 after having done so. Under Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are 17-7 to the UNDER when facing great offensive teams (those like Dallas averaging over 5.6 yards per play). Play this one UNDER the total.

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PURELOCK top play BUFFALO BILLS

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ROOT top play NEW ENGLAND PATS

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JIMMY BOYD

-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
Take: Buffalo Bills +7-105
5* Underdog of the Month on Buffalo Bills +pts
The Bills are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers this week. They are without EJ Manuel, but that may not be a bad thing since Thaddeus Lewis is getting the start. Lewis has one career start, and it came against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He completed 22 of his 32 pass attempts for 204 yards, had one touchdown and one interception. Lewis is coming off the practice squad, so he should already be familiar with the Bills offensive schemes.

Cincinnati is playing in a major letdown spot this week. They are coming off an upset win as an underdog last week against the Patriots. They are facing a Bills team that had a few extra days to prepare since they played a Thursday game last week. The Bills defense should have no problem shutting down Cincinnati's non-existent ground attack. The Bengals are averaging a mere 63 rushing yards per game on the road this season.

The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. They are also 4-1 in their last five head-to-head meetings against Cincinnati. This matchup also falls into a system to play against teams like Cincinnati when they have a winning record and are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, playing against a team with a losing record. In these situations the oddsmakers have severely overvalued favorites and it has resulted in a 49-21 ATS record on the underdog.

NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2+100
4* Heavy Hitter on Tampa Bay Bucs+pts
The Buccaneers are a better team with Josh Freeman gone. Mike Glennon should continue to improve as the season progresses, and he has the benefit of playing a very soft Eagles defense on his home field this week. With Freeman off the team completely, the drama that surrounded his being benched is also gone which should allow Tampa Bay to concentrate on football instead of off field distractions.

The Buc's defense has held opponents to a mere 14.5 points per game at home this season. The run defense was one of the best in football last season, and they are en-route to repeat as one of the best run defenses again this year. They have held opponents to just 94 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry overall. When playing at home those numbers improve to just 65 rushing yards allowed on 3.3 yards per carry. The run defense should force the Eagles to rely on the arm of their backup quarterback. Even if Vick makes a miraculous comeback with his hamstring injury, (he is currently listed as doubtful) the Eagles are not a team that moves the ball well through the air. They have completed just 55.6% of their pass attempts, and will struggle against a tough Buccaneers secondary.

The Eagles are 1-5 ATS when coming off a straight up win, and 2-7 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 30 points or more. Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the underdog owns a 4-1 ATS record.

NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns
Take: Cleveland Browns +2½-110
4* No Brainer on Cleveland Browns +pts
The Browns have continuously received little-to-no respect from the oddsmakers this season. Brandon Weeden should have no problem stepping into the starting role considering he was the starter at the beginning of the season before injuring his hand. The Browns are hot right now having won their last three matchups, covering the spread in each of those games.

The Browns played an early game last week so they have a little extra time to prepare for Detroit. The Lions were shut down by Green Bay last week, and they will face a stout Browns defense in this game. Cleveland has held opponents to 17.7 points per game at home, allowing a mere 79 rushing yards and 215 passing yards in those games.

The Lions are serial under-performers when playing on the road. They have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six road games. They are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The Browns have posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games following an ATS win. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off a performance in which they scored 30 points or more.

NFL Oct 13 '13
4:05p Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks
Take: Tennessee Titans +14-115
3* Oddsmakers Error on Tennessee Titans +pts
The Titans have jumped out to a 3-2 start this season, yet they find themselves as two touchdown underdogs in this matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Colts last week, and they are getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. Home field advantage has been favorable for Seattle, but it is not enough to make up for two touchdowns in a game featuring evenly matched teams.

The Titans defense has been solid this year. They are allowing a mere 19 points per game, and have barely taken a step back when playing on the road allowing 19.5 points per game. The offense has also performed well, scoring 23 points per game. They are gaining 117 rushing yards and they have just two interceptions to eight touchdowns through the air this year.

Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Titans have performed well against NFC opponents, posting a 39-20 ATS record in their last 59 games. This matchup also falls into a system to play against favorites of 10.5 points or more like Seattle when they are averaging over 7.3 passing yards per attempt and facing a pass defense that has allowed 5.9 to 6.7 passing yards per attempt. This system is 64-32 ATS.

NFL Oct 13 '13
8:30p Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Take: Washington Redskins +6-110
3* No Doubt Rout on Washington Redskins +pts
The Redskin's offense has shown improvement with each passing week. They put up 24 points against a tough Raiders defense two weeks ago, and they should have plenty of time to make necessary adjustments since they are coming off a bye week. Washington has averaged 22.7 points per game, but expect an even better performance against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 29.7 points per game at home this season.

The fact that this is a division game should have Washington playing at peak performance. Add in the fact that they have an extra week to prepare, and are facing a Cowboys defense that was run ragged last week by Denver and we could have a potential upset in the making. Since the Cowboys are at home we will take the points, but expect this to be a very close game.

This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Dallas when they are averaging 3.5 to 4.5 yards per carry when they are coming off a game in which they had 75 or less rushing yards and are facing a team that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry or more. This system is 62-27 ATS.

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King Creole

4* Redskins / Cowboys Over

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Chase Diamond

9* Bills +7

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Warren sharp


TENN OVER 41(pro)

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PHILADELPHIA VS. TAMPA BAY
October 13, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: top bet @ 3 -120 Tampa Bay
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 13 - 1:00 PM

10* Bucs.

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Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAYS:
Seattle -13 1/2 Tennessee
Houston -7 St. Louis

SINGLE PLAYS
Cincy -7 1/2 Buffalo
Cincy--Buffalo - UNDER 41 1/2
New Orleans +2 1/2 New England
San Diego +1 1/2 Indy
Arizona--San Fran - UNDER 41
Dallas--Washington - OVER 53 1/2

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Todays Best Bets

5* - [207] Green Bay Packers -2.5 -120 vs Baltimore Ravens

5* - [226] New England Patriots -1 -135 vs New Orleans Saints

4* - [227] Washington Redskins +5.5 -110 vs Dallas Cowboys

3* - [205] Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 -123 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Packers at Ravens: What bettors need to know

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Joe Flacco is off to a bit of a slow start but could turn things around quickly against a poor pass defense missing its best outside rusher. Flacco will attempt to do just that when the Baltimore Ravens host the banged-up Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The Packers will be without top pass rusher Clay Matthews, who suffered a broken thumb last week and could miss a month.

The Ravens are 3-2 but Flacco owns more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (five) after signing a giant contract following a Super Bowl win last season. Aaron Rodgers is on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum with nine touchdowns and three picks but does not have his team in any better position. Green Bay is winless on the road, where it served up 34 points in each of its losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Packers opened -3 and are now -1. The total opened 48 and is up to 49.

WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2): Matthews’ absence means Green Bay will turn to a combination of Mike Neal and Nick Perry rushing the passer. Those two combined for three sacks in a win over the Detroit Lions last week and will start on the outside, while the inside linebacker spots are thin after injuries to Brad Jones (hamstring) and Robert Francois (Achilles). Rodgers is coming off an efficient 274-yard, one-touchdown performance in a 22-9 win over the Detroit Lions but will again be without one of his weapons in leading rusher James Starks (knee), leaving the bulk of the carries to rookie Eddie Lacy.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-2): Flacco’s last two weeks were the worst of the bunch, with the Super Bowl MVP completing only 53.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and six interceptions. Flacco was picked up in last week’s 26-23 victory at Miami by his defense, which surrendered just 22 rushing yards and sacked Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill six times. After getting shredded by the Denver Broncos in the season opener, Baltimore’s defense is working its way back into form by stopping the run and playing tight in the red zone.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in October.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last seven games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-2 in Packers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers has 29 TD passes in his last 11 games against AFC teams.

2. Ravens WR Torrey Smith leads the AFC with 556 receiving yards and is averaging 20.6 yards per catch.

3. Baltimore is 13-0 in its last 13 home games against NFC opponents.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steelers at Jets: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Mired in one of the worst starts in franchise history, the Pittsburgh Steelers attempt to change their fortunes against an opponent that is taking great strides toward doing that very thing. The Steelers vie for their first win of the season on Sunday when they visit the New York Jets, who showed their mettle with a 30-28 triumph in Atlanta on Monday night. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after completing 16-of-20 passes - three of which resulted in touchdowns.

Pittsburgh was on a bye following a 34-27 loss to Minnesota in London, but saw one team captain exchanged not-so-friendly fire in the direction of another during the week off. Safety Ryan Clark took issue with Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation, saying that the quarterback's tendency to go off the page often leads to turnovers. "It is what it is," Roethlisberger replied. "I'm just going to play the game the way that I play it and try not to turn it over."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Jets opened +1. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-4): For all of the considerable negatives, Pittsburgh did experience a positive as rookie Le'Veon Bell scored twice in his NFL debut against Minnesota. The Steelers hope they've aided in the development of the second-round selection by acquiring Levi Brown from Arizona and demoting fellow offensive tackle Mike Adams. After restructuring his contract in the offseason, Antonio Brown (team-leading 32 receptions) has settled into the top wide receiver role in the wake of Mike Wallace's departure to Miami.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-2): Antonio Cromartie, who was expected to keep tabs on Brown, injured his knee during practice Thursday. The veteran underwent an MRI exam and his potential absence could weaken an already-thin cornerback position with rookie Dee Milliner nursing a hamstring injury. With veteran wideout Santonio Holmes (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game, Smith could once again look for Jeremy Kerley, who reeled in five receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. Tight ends Jeff Cumberland and Kellen Winslow lead the team with two touchdowns apiece. Bilal Powell has been consistent albeit unspectacular by averaging 4.2 yards per carry while fellow running backs Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson are still getting their feet under them.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in Steelers last seven games in Week 6.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC.
* Over is 10-4 in Jets last 14 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Jets are second in the league in yards allowed (299), but placed LB Antwan Barnes on injured reserve after his knee buckled in Monday's victory over the Falcons. Barnes had two sacks while leading the club with 12 quarterback hits.

2. The Steelers have won 16 of the 20 meetings versus the Jets - with two of those victories coming in the postseason.

3. New York G Willie Colon spent his first seven years of his career with Pittsburgh.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jaguars at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last three meetings with the Denver Broncos, but that seems like ancient history as the teams prepare for what is expected to be a lopsided contest Sunday in Denver. The Broncos, one of three unbeaten teams in the league, are racking up offensive numbers at a record-breaking pace and they've been installed as the largest favorite in NFL history against a winless Jaguars squad. "I think you're in this long enough, whether you're a player or a coach, and we've got enough veteran leadership in there that understands that we don't look at records," Broncos coach John Fox told reporters. "We don't look at point spreads."

Any way of looking at it reveals a mismatch, though, as the Broncos average an NFL-best 46 points while the Jaguars rank last in the league in total offense and scoring offense and 31st in scoring defense. Chad Henne is expected to be back under center for Jacksonville with Blaine Gabbert slowed by a hamstring injury. "Chad's played a lot the last two years, and we have a lot with him in practice, so it's not a big deal at all," receiver Cecil Shorts told the team's website. "We're confident in him."

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Broncos opened -27.5 and are now -26. The total opened 51.5 and is up to 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (0-5): Jacksonville's offense has been punchless regardless of who is under center, but its 363 total yards in last week's 34-20 loss at St. Louis marked a season high. The return of receiver Justin Blackmon from a four-game suspension helped, as the second-year wideout had five catches for 136 yards and a touchdown. The defense has been the worst in the league against the run and surprisingly solid against the pass, but that will be tested against Denver's explosive air attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-0): Denver has won 16 straight regular-season games after a 51-48 shootout at Dallas last week. Peyton Manning (1,884 passing yards, 20 TDs) has the offense moving at a record clip, having scored 230 points through five games - the most in NFL history. The defense has been susceptible against the pass but leads the league against the run, allowing 69.6 rushing yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
* Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.
* Over is 20-6-1 in Broncos last 27 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos have scored 52 and 51 points the past two games, while Jacksonville has scored a total of 51 points in five games.

2. Broncos WR Wes Welker has caught a touchdown pass in seven straight games dating to last season and needs one reception to reach 800 in his career.

3. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has averaged 111.5 rushing yards in his past two games versus Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tale of the Tape: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

One of professional football's most spirited rivalries resumes Sunday night when the Washington Redskins visit the Dallas Cowboys. Despite the teams owning a collective 3-6 record, a win Sunday would propel one of them into first place in the struggling NFC East. Dallas is coming off a wild 51-48 loss to Denver, while the Redskins enjoyed a bye last week.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Redskins have boasted a solid offense despite quarterback Robert Griffin III's early-season struggles. Washington ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards per game at 284.8, with No. 1 receiver Pierre Garcon racking up 44 targets through the first four games. The running game has yet to get untracked, with the Alfred Morris-led rush attack sitting 17th in yards per game (106). Griffin, who ran for 815 yards as a rookie, has just 72 so far this season.

While no doubt inflated by last week's shootout loss to the Broncos, the Dallas pass attack has been equally as impressive. The Cowboys rank one spot ahead of the Redskins at 285 yards per game, while their 13 passing touchdowns tie them with San Diego for second-most in the league. Like the rival Redskins, Dallas has struggled to move the ball on the ground; the Cowboys are 20th in yards per game and have just two rushing scores through five games.

Edge: Washington

Defense

The Redskins can only hope the week off provided some much-needed rest and reflection time for a defense that is allowing a league-worst 440.5 yards per contest. As bad as the pass defense has been - ranked 28th in the NFL at 298.3 yards allowed per game - the rush defense has been even worse. No team in the league has surrendered more yards per game than the Redskins (142.3), while their 4.7 yards-per-carry against is 26th.

The loss to Denver also blew up the Cowboys' defensive stats, though they weren't all that impressive to begin with. The Cowboys own the second-worst pass defense in football, surrendering 326.4 yards per game and 14 touchdowns - tied with the New York Giants for the most in the league. The one area in which Dallas owns a sizable advantage is in run defense; the Cowboys are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL at 82.8.

Edge: Dallas

Special Teams

Washington's return game is lacking through the opening six weeks. The Redskins are averaging just 20.3 yards per kickoff return - the sixth-lowest total in the league - with a longest return of just 28 yards. The punt-return game has been equally deficient, with Washington ranked 27th at 5.6 yards per attempt. Kicker John Potter is 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts but will be relegated to the backup role with the return of Kai Forbath, who hasn't played since Week 1.

The Cowboys have been strong on their returns so far in 2013. They're averaging 27 yards per kickoff return and 11.9 yards per punt return - both ranking them sixth in the league. Veteran placekicker Dan Bailey has been solid to date, connecting on nine of 11 field-goal attempts while making all 15 of his extra-point kicks. He hit from 43 and 48 yards out in last week's narrow loss to Denver.

Edge: Dallas

Notable Quotables

"Make no mistake about it: Tony is excellent. And he gives us our best chance of winning a Super Bowl. A lot of people say, 'Well, Jerry, shame on you for making that our very best chance.' I like trying to get there the way we're trying to get there better than the alternative." - Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on quarterback Tony Romo

"I'd like to get (Roy) Helu out there more. It's always a hard thing when you've got two guys you believe in and with the success (Alfred Morris) had last year and how much we do believe in Alf, so we don't like to just keep rotating those guys all the time." Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan on his running back situation

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 6's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

The doors to the NFL Prop Shop are opening for Week 6 wagering. Check out Covers Expert Sean Murphy’s favorite player prop picks for Sunday’s action:

Most passing yards

Terrelle Pryor (Oakland Raiders) vs. Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)

Not sure Terrelle Pryor's progression as an NFL quarterback is properly being reflected by this line.

The Raiders aren't known for their offensive prowess, but they're certainly coming along in that department, and Pryor is a big part of that. This isn't a team void of talent at the wide receiver position. Denarius Moore has quietly enjoyed three straight strong games, and I expect him to play a big factor this week as well.

Alex Smith has done a terrific job with the Chiefs so far, but this offense isn't just about one guy. Smith has topped out at 288 passing yards in a game this season, but I don't see him approaching that number against an improving Raiders defense.

Take: Pryor

Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams) vs. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

After two consecutive miserable performances, the Texans need to take the heat off of Matt Schaub and they will on Sunday. I fully expect Houston to lean heavily on its ground game against the Rams. This isn't the type of matchup where Schaub needs to shoulder the entire load.

The Rams running game has been virtually non-existent this season, and they would only be banging their heads against the wall by trying to run on a stout Houston front line.

The path to victory has to run through Sam Bradford this week. Keep in mind, he does have a 352-yard passing game under his belt this season, and threw for three scores against Jacksonville last Sunday. A much tougher matchup presents itself here, but I expect to see Bradford air it out early and often.

Take: Bradford

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Shady McCoy hasn't been able to get going since ripping off 158 yards against Kansas City back in Week 3, and I don't see this as an ideal spot for him to get untracked.

Note that the Bucs have been among the league's toughest teams against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season.

As for Doug Martin, he's in a similar position to McCoy, having not recorded a 100-yard rushing game since Week 2. I do think he'll be given ample opportunity to do so this week, however, as the Bucs know that they can ill afford to have rookie QB Mike Glennon throwing the ball 40+ times again.

Take: Martin

Most pass receptions

Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers) vs. Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

We've made a habit of supporting Ravens players this season, and we'll go back to the well here.

Randall Cobb has emerged as a top-flight receiver for the Packers, but it seems as though the opposition has quickly caught on, holding him to just nine catches and 89 yards in the last two games. You can be sure the Ravens will key on the elusive Cobb this Sunday.

Torrey Smith is one of the NFL's elite wide receivers and he appears to be hitting his stride. Smith is coming off back-to-back huge performances, racking up a combined 287 yards through the air. It's no secret that Joe Flacco will be looking to his star receiver on a regular basis this week.

Take: Smith

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet Early Action

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Joe Flacco is off to a bit of a slow start but could turn things around quickly against a poor pass defense missing its best outside rusher. Flacco will attempt to do just that when the Baltimore Ravens host the banged-up Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers is on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum with nine touchdowns and three picks but does not have his team in any better position. Green Bay is winless on the road, where it served up 34 points in each of its losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati.

LINE: The Ravens opened +3 and are now +1. The total opened 48 and is up to 49.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-5.0) - Baltimore (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.5

TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 45.5)

Philadelphia, vying for consecutive wins for the first time in 20 games, finds itself tied for first with Dallas in the weak NFC East despite the losing record. No matter who is under center, running back LeSean McCoy — who leads the NFL with 514 yards rushing and 700 yards from scrimmage — is sure to see a lot of action as part of the league's top rushing attack at 186.6 yards per game.

Second-year coach Greg Schiano has come increasingly under fire as Tampa Bay has lost nine of its past 10 games and five in a row at home dating to last season. His handling of quarterback Josh Freeman, who was benched and later released after a particularly ugly falling out, has intensified the criticism.

LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Bucs moving to +1. The total is 45.5.

WEATHER: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) - Tampa Bay (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven vs. NFC.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Pittsburgh was on a bye following a 34-27 loss to Minnesota in London, but saw one team captain exchanged not-so-friendly fire in the direction of another during the week off. Safety Ryan Clark took issue with Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation, saying that the quarterback's tendency to go off the page often leads to turnovers.

The Jets are second in the league in yards allowed (299), but placed LB Antwan Barnes on injured reserve after his knee buckled in Monday's victory over the Falcons. Barnes had two sacks while leading the club with 12 quarterback hits.

LINE: The Jets opened as 1-point home dogs. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+5.0) - New York (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -4.5

TRENDS:
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 6.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last four vs. AFC.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 44)

The Panthers routed the New York Giants 38-0 in Week 3 behind QB Cam Newton's best game of the season, but they were unable to maintain that momentum after their bye week. Newton hasn't been much of a factor in the run game and Carolina has only two rushing touchdowns.

The Minnesota Vikings don't know who will be their quarterback on Sunday. Regardless of who starts this week, it's likely to be Freeman's job soon enough after he signed a prorated $3 million deal following his release in Tampa Bay.

LINE: The Vikes opened -1. The total opened 44.5 and is down to 44.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (+3.0) - Minnesota (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -1.5

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41)

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to keep alive one streak while ending another when they host the rival Oakland Raiders on Sunday. One of three remaining unbeatens in the NFL, the Chiefs are aiming for their first 6-0 start since they opened the 2003 season with nine consecutive wins. However, they have lost six straight home games against Oakland and six of the past eight meetings overall.

Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor was 18-for-23 for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns against San Diego and has completed 72.5 percent of his passes without throwing an interception in his last two games.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -9.5. The total opened 40.5 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from E at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Kansas City (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -11

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC West.

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5, 42)

Rams QB Sam Bradford is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Jacksonville and has thrown for 1,315 yards and 10 scores. St. Louis ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing offense and team leader Daryl Richardson (162 yards) averages a paltry 2.9 yards per carry but rookie Zac Stacy impressed with 78 yards against the Jaguars in his first career start.

Quarterback Matt Schaub is experiencing a miserable stretch and might need a strong rebound performance to retain his job when the Texans host the Rams Sunday. Schaub has thrown a pick-six interception in four consecutive games – the first NFL player to ever do so – and his struggles have been magnified by a three-game losing streak.

LINE: The Texans opened -6.5 and are now -7.5. The total opened 43 and is down to 42.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.5) - Houston (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -8.5

TRENDS:
* Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+6, 41.5)

Cincinnati's stellar defensive performance last week overshadowed another mediocre effort by quarterback Andy Dalton and the offense, which has managed one TD in two games.

Buffalo seeks its third straight home win behind the well-traveled Thaddeus Lewis, whose only career start came in the 2012 regular-season finale, when he threw for 204 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

LINE: The Bengals opened -9.5 and are now -6. The total opened 42 and is down to 41.5.

WEATHER: There is a 35 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) + Buffalo (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -6.0

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Bills last four games following a ATS loss

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+1, 44)

Detroit enters Week 6 tied with the Chicago Bears for the top spot in the NFC North after suffering a 22-9 loss at division rival Green Bay last Sunday. Defensive end Ziggy Ansah leads all NFL rookies with 3.5 sacks.

Cleveland has been one of the surprise teams in the league in the early going, reeling off three consecutive victories after losing its first two games. The Browns, who share first place in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, rallied from an early 10-point deficit and scored the final 20 points en route to a 37-24 triumph over Buffalo in Week 5.

LINE: The Browns opened +3 and have been bet up to +1. The total opened at 46 and is down to 44.

WEATHER: There is a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the East endzone at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) + Cleveland (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -1.0

TRENDS:
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions last five games on grass.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet Late Action

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 40.5)

The Titans are trying to get running back Chris Johnson (294 yards) untracked after he had just 38 yards on 25 carries over the past two games against the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee is 1-1 on the road and is one game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South.

The Seattle Seahawks are nearly invincible at home and seek their 11th consecutive victory at CenturyLink Field when they face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. NFC West-leading Seattle has won this season’s two home games against San Francisco and Jacksonville by a combined 54 points and thrives while playing in perhaps the top home-field environment in the league.

LINE: The line opened Seattle -13.5. The total is currently 40.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 4 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+1.0) - Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -12.0

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Seahawks are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Titans are 2-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last three meetings with the Denver Broncos, but that seems like ancient history as the teams prepare for what is expected to be a lopsided contest Sunday in Denver.

Denver has won 16 straight regular-season games after a 51-48 shootout at Dallas last week. Peyton Manning (1,884 passing yards, 20 TDs) has the offense moving at a record clip, having scored 230 points through five games - the most in NFL history.

LINE: The line opened Broncos -27.5 and is now -26. The total opened 51.5 and is now up to 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.5) - Denver (-9.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -23

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Denver.
* Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 50.5)

New Orleans is one of three undefeated teams in the NFL after passing a big test at Chicago a week ago. The Saints, who have their own star tight end in Jimmy Graham -- who leads the league with 593 receiving yards and ranks third in the NFL in total offense.

The Pats got back wide receiver Danny Amendola in last week's 13-6 setback but he caught just four passes and looked rusty as New England failed to score a touchdown for the first time since a 16-9 loss to the Jets in 2009.

LINE: The Pats opened -1. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under clear skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) - New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -2.5

TRENDS:
* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a S.U. loss.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 41)

With Arizona adding quarterback Carson Palmer to the mix in the offseason, it was expected that the Cardinals' passing game would improve dramatically over years past. That has yet to happen, however. The Cardinals rank 22nd in passing yardage per game and Palmer has struggled to find the open man.

The San Francisco 49ers are back to their dominant selves following back-to-back one-sided losses last month. San Francisco has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 27-13 decision in their previous encounter Dec. 30.

LINE: The 49ers opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total opened 41.5 and is down to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear and sunny skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.0) - San Francisco (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -10

TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
* Over is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 games overall.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 52)

Washington is looking for its first divisional victory and emerged from the dregs of the winless with a 24-14 triumph at Oakland in Week 4. The Redskins surrendered an average of 32.7 points in their first three games but tightened things up in the victory over Oakland, holding the Raiders to 298 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Dallas is tied for first place in the unimpressive NFC East and is staring at two straight divisional opponents with a trip to Philadelphia scheduled for Week 7. The Cowboys proved they could hang with anyone offensively last week, and Tony Romo found a third receiver in Terrance Williams (151 yards, one touchdown) to go along with Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten and give the offense another dimension.

LINE: The Cowboys opened -4.5 and have been bet up to -5.5. The total opened 53 and is down to 52.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+2.5) - Dallas (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -7.5

TRENDS:
* Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
* Over is 20-8 in Cowboys last 28 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 6 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Baltimore Ravens are 13-0 in their last 13 home games against NFC opponents.

- The Packers have lost five of the last six games on the road dating back to Week 11 of the 2012.

- Nick Foles, who will likely start under center for the Eagles Sunday, was 1-5 in six starts as a rookie last year.

- The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings between the Eagles and Bucs. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home dog.

- The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 16 of the previous 20 meetings against the New York Jets.

- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith was 16-for-20 with three TD passes en route to a 30-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons and AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

- The Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have played Under in four straight meetings and eight of the last 10. Sunday's total is 44.

- The Oakland Raiders are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in Kansas City.

- Chiefs fans will attempt to set the world record for crowd noise at Arrowhead Sunday. Seattle Seahawks fans set the record in the Sept. 16 rout over the San Francisco 49ers.

- Rams coach Jeff Fisher went 7-3 against Gary Kubiak’s Houston teams when he was coach of the Tennessee Titans.

- Speaking of the Texans, they are one of just three teams (Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers) to have not covered a spread this season. Houston is a 7.5-point home fave Sunday.

- The Cincinnati Bengals have lost six straight games in Buffalo. Their last win was in November 1985.

- Buffalo will start Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Lewis will make his second career start. The Bills are 6-point home dogs Sunday.

- Brandon Weeden returns to starting-QB duties for the Cleveland Browns. Weeden was under center for both Cleveland's losses this season.

- The Lions' two losses have come on the road and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. They are 1-point road faves Sunday.

- The Seattle Seahawks have won 10-straight games at CenturyLink Field and are 9-1 ATS over that stretch. They are 13.5-point home faves against Tennessee Sunday.

- The Titans defense held the Chiefs to 1-for-12 on third-down conversions last week. The Seahawks rank 28th in the league as they convert just 4.0 third downs per game.

- The Denver Broncos scored 51 points last week against Dallas. The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored 51 points in five games this season.

- The Broncos sport the NFL's only 5-0 O/U record (the Vikings are 4-0 O/U). Sunday's total versus Jacksonville is 53.

- Tom Brady had a passer rating of 52.2 in last week's loss to Cincinnati. It was his lowest rating since 2007.

- The New Orleans Saints have the fewest turnovers in the NFC with five.

- The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between the Cardinals and 49ers. The Cardinals are 10.5-point road underdogs Sunday.

- Tony Romo has done his best work at home. The QB has 19 TDs and just two INTs in his previous six home games.

- The Redskins are 6-0 in their last six games in Dallas. The Skins are 5.5-point road dogs in Dallas Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Top 5: Key Week 6 injuries

The New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions could all be down star players as they take to the field for Week 6. With statuses still in doubt, bettors will want to keep an eye on all three teams - as well as several others that face major injury issues.

Here's a look at the five biggest injury impacts entering the bulk of Week 6:

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (questionable, back/forearm)

The ongoing Gronkowski saga took another bizarre turn this week. It was widely reported that the versatile tight end was expected to return to action this week, but his status remains in limbo as doctors have yet to clear him for a return to action. Gronkowski's problematic forearm injury hasn't healed to their satisfaction, leaving Tom Brady's top receiving target as a lessor factor even if he is somehow cleared prior to Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots are installed as one-point favorites for Sunday's tilt with the visiting New Orleans Saints. The over/under is set at 50.5.

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (questionable, hamstring)

Vick returned to practice as a full participant Friday, but the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Vick is still doubtful to take the field as he nurses a strained hamstring. There's still a chance Vick may remain active as the emergency backup to Nick Foles. Regardless, bettors should proceed as if Foles will play the entire game as the Eagles look to rest Vick in preparation for a Week 7 showdown with Dallas.

The Eagles are listed as one-point underdogs Sunday against Tampa Bay, with the over/under at 45.5.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (questionable, knee)

There is hope for Lions fans this week, with beat writer Tim Twentyman reporting that last year's league leader in receiving yards will be in the lineup Sunday. Johnson missed last week's game with a knee injury but participated in the open portion of Friday's practice. Head coach Jim Schwartz remains noncommittal, suggesting that Johnson will be a game-time decision.

The Lions are one-point favorites for Sunday afternoon's showdown with the host Cleveland Browns. The over/under is set at 44.

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders (questionable, hamstring)

McFadden's status remains shrouded in mystery; the veterain running back practiced every day this week, but San Fransico Chronicle reporter Vic Tafur writes that he doesn't get the sense McFadden is ready to return to game action. The injury-prone 26-year-old told reporters he felt "pretty close" to full speed. McFadden's absence would mean a large workload for Rashad Jennings, who is returning from his own hamstring injury but is expected to play.

The Raiders go into Sunday's game against the host Kansas City Chiefs as 9.5-point underdogs. The over/under is 41.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (probable, concussion)

Mathews was knocked silly in last weekend's game against the Oakland Raiders but has progressed nicely throughout the week and was a full participant in Saturday's practice. He passed the final hurdle Saturday when he cleared his concussion protocol. Mathews will be installed as San Diego's feature back, though he's a distant third on the pecking order on passing downs to the red-hot Danny Woodhead and veteran Ronnie Brown.

The Chargers find themselves a one-point favorite for the Monday nighter against visiting Indianapolis. The over/under is set at 50.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

5 Unit Play. #107/#209 Take Detroit Lions -2.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX)
Top NFL Play of the Weekend.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries to key personnel. However, the Lions have much more talent than do the Cleveland Browns. Detroit played well on defense last week against Green Bay in a place where they never win. Despite that loss, the Lions currently sit atop the standings in the NFC North and cannot afford a loss to the Browns if they have visions of winning the division. Cleveland has won three straight games after trading away Trent Richardson, but they suffered a quarterback injury last week and now must turn back to Brandon Weeden, a player his teammates do not have confidence in. This play reminds me a lot of the Kansas City - Tennessee game last week, and we fully expect a similar result to that. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played during the month of October.

4 Unit Play. #104/#208 Take Baltimore Ravens +3 over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The wrong team is favored in this game considering the Packers will be playing without their best defensive player in Clay Matthews. Baltimore is 4-0 straight up and against the spread against NFC North teams at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won three of their last four games, including an impressive victory last week in South Florida. Green Bay is 0-2 on the road this year. QB Aaron Rogers will put up some points and yards, but the Ravens will be able to match his production. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on field turf. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.

4 Unit Play. #119/#221 Take Jacksonville Jaguars +27.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) This is the largest pointspread in history, and not much good can be said about Jacksonville. But the one fact we cannot ignore is that since 1985 is that underdogs of more than 20 points are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL PLAYS

5-Unit Play. Take #214 Houston (-7.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
In NFL betting, when everyone is running away from a team that is when you want to be running toward them. That is the case with Houston. Everyone is off the bandwagon and leaving this team for dead. But I think that now is the time to jump on board. This is really a put-up or shut-up week for the Texans and for Matt Schaub. He is set to lose his job and if this team loses this game they will essentially be out of the running in the AFC South. Houston has the No. 1 defense in the NFL and the No. 7 defense in the league. Yet they can't score and they give up a ton of points. The scoring is a statistical anomaly. I am trusting in the fact that this team is moving the ball and they are stopping their opponents. And I think that will carry over into this game here. The Texans have dumped three straight. But look at who they've played. They went to Baltimore - probably the third most difficult place in the league to get a win, behind Seattle and New Orleans - and they lost. Then they dominated Seattle for three quarters and choked that game away. After that they had to go to San Francisco. So they have faced the two Super Bowl reps and one of the favorites to go to this year's Super Bowl. And they lost, getting blown out twice on the road. It happens. But that doesn't mean that this is a terrible team.

St. Louis is a terrible team. They were outplayed by the Jaguars last week. Were it not for a Jaguars kick return for a TD called back and a Rams defensive TD (thanks to loser Blaine Gabbert) that game was equal. The Rams are sans Cortland Finnegan. And without him they have one of the three or four worst secondaries in the league. They cannot stop anyone. And against a motivated Houston passing game this week that is a major problem. On top of that, St. Louis' special teams is a mess. That is attributable to their youth and lack of depth. Oh, and they have no consistent running game and their receivers suck. Basically, it is Sam Bradford - who I am a huge fan of - some good offensive linemen, and then a bunch of asshats.

So we have a motivated, talented, angry Houston team. And we have a sloppy, disorganized St. Louis team. This play reminds me a bit of our winner with Green Bay last week. I think this line is this high for a reason and that the Texans are going to lay into St. Louis here.

4-Unit Play. Take #215 Pittsburgh (+2.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
Here we have another put-up or shut-up game. The Steelers are 0-4. Going back to the preseason they are 0-8 ATS so far this season. That is just not going to continue. It's just not. All of the math and all of the numbers suggest that the Steelers are going to win and/or cover a spread immediately. They have had two weeks off to scheme for this game. And they are now set to make a last stand. It is never too early in the year to be desperate. And the Steelers are incredibly desperate. Pittsburgh has been moving the ball. They have racked up nearly 900 yards of total offense in their last two games and have nothing to show for it. Again, that is not sustainable. They keep turning the ball over. But I think that they will do a better job of taking care of it this week. And if they do then this is a strong situation for them to get a win over a team that they are simply more experienced and more talented then.

You know what storyline I am not buying? The Jets resurgence. The Jets suck. They fluked out wins against Tampa Bay and Atlanta - two teams that are a combined 1-8 right now, by the way. And those two goofy wins are all that stands between them and 1-4 right now. The Steelers defense has not played to its potential. But they still have some guys that can play. And they are going to give out a max effort in this situation and going to put a lot of pressure on the Jets rookie quarterback. I just think that this one is setting up well for the roadie. And I simply can't see the Steelers falling to 0-5. They are not good. But they are not that bad.

3-Unit Play. Take #212 Minnesota (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
Carolina is coming off the rails. They were blown out in the second half at Arizona last week. They had to fly back across the country, hang out, and then fly up to Minnesota. They traded one of their best defenders, Jon Beason, in a move that signifies the team is already looking to the future. They have a lame duck coach. They have a shredded offensive line. They have no receiving options beyond Steve Smith. So, yeah, things aren't going so well for the Panthers. And I don't really understand this spread.

The Vikings are coming off a win and coming off a bye. They are also a team that has been known to go ape on opponents that come to the Metrodome. Minnesota's defense has been horrible. But they should have schemed some things out during the last two weeks. And they always get a big boost on defense from the home crowd. As long as Matt Cassel takes care of the ball, the Vikings really have a lot of weapons on offense. Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson, Cord Patterson and Kyle Rudolph give them plenty of options. They also have a solid offensive line. They just need someone to get it to them without turning the ball over. Cassel is terrible. He is noodle-armed and weak. But he is experienced. And he should be sharp out of the break. I think the Vikings get off to a hot start. And if they do, the Panthers will pack it in. I see this game as a blowout for the home team.

3-Unit Play. Take #224 San Francisco (-10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
I have quite a bit of money down on the Arizona Cardinals going 'over' 5.5 wins this year. The Cardinals 'over' and the Chiefs 'over' were my two biggest futures bets this year so I watch those two teams very closely. The Cardinals are 3-2 at this juncture (I had them at 2-3 at this point) and they have been playing decent ball. They are on a two-game winning streak and are 4-1 ATS this year. They have a little bit of mojo, and Arizona's defense is one of the most underrated in football. But in watching them over the past two weeks I can tell you without a doubt that they were lucky, flat-out lucky, to get their wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina. And, frankly, they were fortunate to hang on against Detroit as well. But, in terms of this play, they are due for a smackdown after how they came to win the last two weeks.

Basically, Carson Palmer is a loser. He can't handle pressure - at all - and has nearly double the amount of INTs (9) as he does TDs (5). He is averaging two picks per game and if he turns the ball over against the 49ers this game is going to get out of hand. And that is exactly what I see happening. San Francisco is starting to pick up its game. After a slow start they have had back-to-back solid performances, with wins by 24 and 31 points. I think they can do the same this week. San Fran has won seven of eight games over the Cardinals by an average of 17 points per game. I think that will be close to their margin of victory here. I'll call it 34-20.

2-Unit Play. Take #221 Jacksonville (+27.5) at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take #228 Dallas (-5.5) over Washington (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

This Week's Totals

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 - St. Louis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over 44.0 - Carolina at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 - Arizona at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 52.5 - Jacksonville at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.0 - Detroit at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.5 - Green Bay at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

6-Unit Play. Take #212 Minnesota (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This Vikings offense looked considerably better with Matt Cassel under center and now coming off a bye, they will have had a bit more time to get with Cassel. It was announced that Matt will be starting this game, and he will want to make a statement with Josh Freeman waiting in the wings. The Vikings are waiting for AP to have a huge day, and even though the Panthers are a solid rush defense, I see it happening this weekend. Carolina hasn't proven anything this season, with the exception of destroying the Giants, but who hasn't done that? I don't see how they stay within a touchdown of the Vikings here.

Carolina is coming off a bye as well, but going on the road just doesn't do the Panthers any favors. This Vikings team knows that a victory could put them at 2-3 and withing striking distance of the top of their division, especially if one of the top teams slip this weekend.

Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following the bye week, while the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The home team is where the value lies in this contest as the home squad is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. I will take a rested Vikings team over a rested Panthers team any day of the week and twice on Sunday's.

3-Unit Play. Take #218 Buffalo (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This is a perfect letdown spot for the Bengals. Cincy is coming off a huge home win over the New England Patriots in which their defense completely shut down Tom Brady. Now they have to go to Buffalo and lay a touchdown. I just don't see them getting up for this game. The Bengals definitely should win this game, but I see it being much closer than seven points. The Bills have one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL and they will be able to control the clock and keep this game close. Cincy has been up and down this season winning games versus Green Bay and New England but losing to Cleveland. The Bengals have only been a touchdown road favorite eight times since 1980 and they are 1-5-2 ATS in those eight contests. Take the home dog in this one as the Bills keep it close regardless of whom they are starting at QB. Thaddeus Lewis will be similar to EJ Manuel in his style of play and as long as he hands the ball off the Bills will be fine.

4-Unit Play. Take #220 Seattle (-13.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This is Seattle's one home game in a streak of five weekends. I know that this is a lot of points to lay versus a solid Titans squad that can play some defense, but Seattle, at home, versus a backup quarterback? I will lay the points. The Seahawks just destroy people at home and mistake-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be just that in front of this crazy crowd. Fitz is good for at least 6-10 points for Seattle after he turns the ball over, and the Seahawks will take advantage of the short field all day long. Look for Seattle to jump on Tennessee early and not look back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle win this one by nearly 20 points.

Tennessee is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record while Seattle is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record. Even better here is we are getting the Seahawks off a loss and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Tennessee just won't be able to keep pace in this one as Seattle is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on field turf. Lay the big number here as it gets covered easily.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chad Matthews

2-Unit Play. #205 Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 13 @ 1pmET)
The high offense Eagles head down to Tampa to take on a disorganized and sputtering Buccaneers team that just can't seem to get anything right this season. The Buccaneers who are 0-4 this season and 1-3 against the spread. The Eagles who are ranked 1st in the league in rushing yards should be able to get the attack going on the ground. The Bucs are ranked 9th in the league in rush defense but I think the Eagles offense even without Michael Vick will be just to much for the Bucs to deal with. Take the Eagles on a small play and lay the -1.5 here

3-Unit Play. #212 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over the Carolina Panthers (Oct 13 @ 1pmET)
The Carolina Panthers head to Minnesota this weekend to take on the Vikings. The Panthers are 1-3 against the spread this season and can't seem to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball. Last week the Panthers were only able to chalk up a measly six points against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Panthers play decent defense but on the road and with Adrian Peterson on the end of the scheme I see the home favorites pulling ahead late and covering the field goal. Take the Vikings at -2.5 here.

2-Unit Play. #228 Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over the Washington Redskins (Oct 13 @ 8:30pmET)
The Redskins had this weekend to Arlington for a divisional rival showdown against the Dallas Cowboys. The Redskins have had the Cowboys number the past several meetings these two teams have met however this years Cowboys team is a much healthier squad this year than previous years past. The offensive threat of quarterback Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams I believe is to much for this struggling Redskins team to overcome. The Redskins are 1-3 this year against the spread. The Cowboys had a disappointing loss last weekend as they almost edged out and beat the unstoppable Denver Broncos just coming up short with Romo throwing a late game interception to decide their fate. The Redskins are a very soft team this year and can't seem to get it going. The Cowboys defense is awful but the Redskins on the road are more vulnerable in this situation. Take a small play and take Dallas -5.5

3-Unit Play. #229 Indianapolis Colts -2.5 over the San Diego Chargers (Oct 14 @ 8:40pmET)
Quarterback Andrew Luck and the high octane Indianapolis Colts head to San Diego to play a very inconsistent Chargers team. The Colts I believe are the most improved team this year all around. Their defense is finally showing up and their offensive line is big enough to finally protect Andrew Luck. Everything is just clicking for the Colts who knocked off the Seattle Seahawks last weekend at home. The Colts have covered the spread three consecutive weeks in a row now and I see the trend continuing again on Monday as well. Take the Colts and lay that field goal at -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

3* DAL 1st Half -3
3* TEN +13.5
3* PHI @ TB - U46
4* DAL -5.5
4* CIN -7

411 Sysytem
5* GOM - NO +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Weather Report Sunday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 34 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow diagonally from the northeast at 9 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 45.5)

Fans at Raymond James Stadium will be treated to sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow out of the northwest at 7 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Temperatures at MetLife Stadium will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 7 mph and partly cloudy skies.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41)

Arrowhead Stadium will see sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-60s and wind blowing diagonally out of the east at 7 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+6, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with overcast skies and a 38 percent chance of rain later in the day. Wind will blow across the width of the field at 4 mph.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+1, 44)

Fans at FirstEnergy Stadium face a 25 percent chance of rain with wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 6 mph and temperatures in the mid-60s.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 41)

Temperatures at CenturyLink Field will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 6 mph

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 3 mph.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (+1, 50.5)

Gillette Stadium will see clear skies with temperatures in the high-50s and wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 41)

Temperatures at Candlestick Park will be in the low-60s with clear skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 7 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointspreadpros

Week 6 TOP Plays

HOUSTON -7.5
NY JETS -2.5
New Orleans +2.5
Indianapolis -2
DALLAS -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

214 HOU triple-dime bet

215 PIT double-dime bet

227 WAS double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

OAK double-dime bet

CIN/BUF UNDER triple-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks

3* Jets/Steelers Over
2* Bills, Seahawks, Redskins
1* Texans, Browns
Freeplay - Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

Under Eagles
Ravens
Over Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

al demarco
15*dime rebound rout of the year

seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cappers access
lions
new england
washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Sports Connection ....Sunday Best Bet .................................................. ......................STRAIGHT BET Oct 13 NHL [3] LA KINGS -140


KINGS a good road team under Sutter...they play a FLA team that is playing their 3rd in 4.... the schedule is against FLA at this point as they started with 4 road games, then came home for two (this is the second) and now go back on road after this tilt.
FLA also has allowed their opponents 7 goals in 2 of the 1st 5 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Boston

The Tigers look to follow up last night's 1-0 victory in Game 1 and build on their 7-1 start in Max Scherzer's last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Detroit is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 907-908: Detroit at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.544; Boston (Buchholz) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at Florida

The Kings look to build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus the Panthers. Los Angeles is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 1-2: Phoenix at Carolina (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.328; Carolina 10.752
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+100); Over


Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Florida (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.194; Florida 10.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Under


Game 5-6: New Jersey at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.507; Winnipeg 10.404
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+120); Over


Game 7-8: Ottawa at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.388; Anaheim 12.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-150); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1112-836 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner SUN Pitt Steelers + 1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Ducks -150

Kings -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

WASHINGTON (227) AT DALLAS (228)
Latest Line: DALLAS -6.5; Total: 53.0

The Redskins come off a bye week to visit the long-time rival Cowboys on Sunday night. Washington swept this series last year with QB Robert Griffin III accounting for 496 total yards and five touchdowns, giving his team a 13-3 ATS advantage versus Dallas since 2005. The Cowboys nearly knocked off the Broncos last week, losing 51-48 despite QB Tony Romo throwing for 506 yards and 5 TD. Romo threw a key interception late in that defeat and also tossed 5 INT versus the Redskins last year. But Washington has the NFL’s worst yardage defense (441 YPG), while Dallas has stuffed the run nicely (83 YPG, 4th in NFL).
FORECASTER: Dallas 29, Washington 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aaron's Analysis

pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters
159-110-3 run
35-27-4 run last 66 plays

POD Tenn Titans game under 41.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -139 over Detroit Tigers (pending)
Detroit Tigers + Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5
(System Record: 91-7, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 91-98-2

Football Crusher
Cleveland Browns +2.5 over Detroit Lions
(System Record: 24-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 24-17

Hockey Crusher
Vancouver Canucks -132 over Montreal Canadiens (pending)
Los Angeles Kings -136 over Florida Panthers
(System Record: 2-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 2-0

Soccer Crusher
Botafogo RJ + Flamengo UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 469-16, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 469-401-65

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at BOSTON
Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
329-198 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.4% 93.7 units )
78-58 this year. ( 57.4% 8.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at BOSTON
BOSTON is 54-35 (+16.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: BOSTON (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Sports

NFL
Kansas City -9 over Oakland
Dallas -5.5 over Washington
Houston -7.5 over St. Louis
Seattle -13.5 over Tennessee

MLB
Boston +100 over Detroit (TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside Sports Report

NFL

4* Houston
3* Detroit
3* Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica
150 Dime
Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wildcat (NY POST)
8-2 or 7-3 depending on your line

2-0 last week

Balt

San diego Monday night

[Can'tPickAWinner]

hondo


26-49 35 % lol

Raiders
Philly
Packers
Det
Minny
Houston
Cinny
Seattle
Denver
Cards
No
Wash

Sd

best bets 6-9 minny,buffalo,no

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

4-10 last week

Pitt
kc
philly
Packers
det
Panthers best bet 2-3
Houston
Cinny
seattle
Denver
49ers
no

wash

sd

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL


9-UNIT "MEGA-HYDRA"
PACKERS / RAVENS OVER 47 (-138) (10am)

*All Lines from 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229).eu 10/13/13 6:05am
**All times Pacific

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sixth Sense

Raiders +8.5
Panthers +2
Texans -7 -120
Jets -2.5
Bills +6
Colts/Chargers over 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkosky Milan

Wolkosky's worst NFL start ever


NFL: 14-23 (-170 Units)


30* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -10
30* CARDINALS / 49ERS UNDER 40½
20* TENNESSEE TITANS +12
20* JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +27½
20* WASHINGTON REDSKINS +5½
20* RAIDERS / CHIEFS UNDER 41
20* TITANS / SEAHAWKS OVER 41

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Kc/oak under
Sea/ten under
Sf/ari under
wash/dal over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 13/10/2013
#214 Houston -7.5
#218 Buffalo +6
#211 Carolina +2.5
#226 New England -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC'S SPORTS

-= TOP PLAY =-
MLB Oct 13 '13
8:05p DET GM2 vs BOS GM2
Take: BOS GM2 -110
10-unit Play Take #908 Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST)
Game 2 of the ALCS gets underway this evening in Boston as the Red Sox look to even the score after last night's 1-0 loss. Pitchers dominated the hitters in Game One and today we'll see two more great pitchers on the mound. Max Scherzer goes for the Tigers and he's had a masterful season. He finished the regular season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and will likely be bringing home a Cy Young award when it's announced. Clay Buchholz very well could have been in the Cy Young race had he not gotten injured and missed several months. He finished the season 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in roughly half of a season. Needless to say, these pitchers have been dominant and there's no big edge either way there. However, if you break down the rest of these teams, Boston has the edge in every other major category. At the plate, the Red Sox were the best team in baseball - scoring 57 more runs than the Tigers in the regular season. Defensively Boston has an edge as well and once the game gets into the bullpen they have a better 8th inning guy and a better closer than the Tigers do. This game is also in Boston, where the Red Sox went 53-28 this season. That was the best mark in the AL and Detroit was barely over .500 on the road this season. Adding it all up, it appears that this line is a bit short. We'll take Boston here to even up the series.

NHL Oct 13 '13
3:05p Los Angeles Kings vs FLORIDA
Take: Los Angeles Kings -136
2-unit Play Take #3 Los Angeles Kings over Florida Panthers (3:05pm EST)
The Los Angeles Kings are a great puck possession team and they generally dominate teams that play sloppy hockey. That's bad news for the Florida Panthers, who aren't the smoothest customers on the ice as a team. The Kings also catch the Panthers at a good time. Florida is coming off of an emotional 6-3 win against the Penguins on Friday, so there's a chance of a letdown here as it's difficult to get up for a big opponent two games in a row. Starting goalie Tim Thomas is also a bit banged up with a lower body injury and may not even play in this game. Either way, he's not going to be 100% and that gives Los Angeles an extra advantage that they probably didn't need in the first place. The Panthers might be the worst team in hockey the Kings are definitely in the top five in the NHL. The line on this contest feels about 15-20 cents short, so we'll take LA here.

NHL Oct 13 '13
8:05p Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Take: Anaheim Mighty Ducks -147
4-unit Play Take #8 Anaheim Ducks over Ottawa Senators (8:05pm EST)
The Anaheim Ducks are off to fast start for the second consecutive season. They've won three of their first four contests, with their only loss to the undefeated Avalanche. Today they are in an excellent situational spot versus the Ottawa Senators. The Sens are playing the second leg of a back-to-back tonight (lost to Sharks 3-2 last night), and this is their fifth straight road game to open the season. Travelling can take its toll, especially early on in the season and as the players get into full game shape. The Sens also have played into overtime in two of their last three games, so they've spent lots of extra time on the ice. Anaheim has been sitting at home waiting for this game and has had two full days of rest. Ottawa is probably the better team between these two, but the Ducks are the right play for tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JIMMY BOYD

MLB Oct 13 '13
8:05p DET GM2 vs BOS GM2
Take: BOS GM2 -108

3* Main Event on Boston Red Sox -108
The Red Sox offense should prove to be too much for Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers today. Throughout his career Scherzer has not had much success against Boston, posting a 2-4 record with a 7.02 ERA. Don't expect Scherzer to get a lot of run support from his Tigers teammates. In the playoffs, Detroit has a .235 batting average and they have scored a mere 3.4 runs per game.

The Red Sox offense has been on fire all season. They have averaged 7 runs per game throughout their past seven games with a .321 batting average and a .391 on base percentage. The Tigers offense is struggling, and it won't get any easier against Clay Buchholz. Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA at home this season and the Red Sox are 7-2 in those nine starts.

The Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholz's last eight starts when pitching with five days of rest. They are also 21-5 in his last 26 starts against AL Central opponents. Buchholz has a 2-1 record against Detroit with a 3.76 career ERA and he should give his team enough of an advantage to pick up a win today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL LOS ANGELES at FLORIDA
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game
33-15 since 1997. ( 68.8% 28.6 units )

NHL OTTAWA at ANAHEIM
Play On - Any team against the money line (ANAHEIM) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
76-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.4% 40.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NHL OTTAWA at ANAHEIM
Play On - Any team against the money line (ANAHEIM) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team in the first half of the season
39-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 83.0% 26.8 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROOT

add

CAROLINA

PITTSBURGH

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

NFL Football Premium Picks



NFL | Oct 13 '13 (1:00p)
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
+1+113 (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=af000123&mediaTypeID=633&Image=/tracking/banner/160x600/5dimes-MB-160x600v4.gif&AffUrlID=176) at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)


15* NFL Sunday Upset Special on Carolina Panthers +1

Carolina has held a halftime lead in each of its first four games of the season. It has blown three of those leads in the second half, and it’s clear to me that this team is much better than its 1-3 record would indicate. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by 25.0 yards per game on the season, which would be the sign of a 3-1 team rather than one that is 1-3.

I love what I’ve seen for Carolina’s defense, which is giving up just 14.5 points and 301.5 total yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. Minnesota is 1-3 and is getting outgained by 80.2 total yards per game, which shows that the Vikings are every bit as bad as their record would indicate. A big reason for that has been a defense that is giving up 30.7 points and 430.7 total yards per game to rank 29th in the NFL in total defense.

The key to stopping the Vikings is stopping Adrian Peterson, and the Panthers have the perfect antidote. They rank 7th in the league against the run, yielding just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They added two defensive tackles in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and both Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelei have made huge impacts already along the defensive line. These two will plug holes, while Luke Kuechly and company fill the open lanes and make tackles on Peterson. All Kuechly did last season was lead the league in tackles, and he’s well on his way to doing so again in 2013.

Admittedly, Cam Newton has not been all that sharp in the early going. He had his two worst games against two very good defenses in Seattle and Arizona. However, he has been much sharper in games against the Bills and Giants, who don't have the best of defenses. This Vikings' stop unit is absolutely atrocious, and I look for Newton to go off against it Sunday on a fast turf inside the Metrodome. Steve Smith has caught 37 passes for 625 yards and four touchdowns in six career games against Minnesota.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) – off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Carolina is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 road games against teams that force 2.75 or more turnovers per game. The Panthers are 8-1 against the spread off a road loss over the last three seasons, bouncing back to win 27.3 to 19.4 in this spot. The Vikings are 7-15 against the number in their last 22 games following a S.U. win. Take the Panthers Sunday.







-= TOP PLAY =-


NFL | Oct 13 '13 (1:00p)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
+7-110 (http://record.bettingpartners.com/_wWGnrqHo-eSBKOxorkQ2_WNd7ZgqdRLk/1/) at bodog (http://sports.bovada.lv/)


20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +7

Oddsmakers have certainly over-adjusted for Thaddeus Lewis being named the starting quarterback this week. The Bills were going to be somewhere around a 3.5-point underdog if E.J. Manuel was the starting quarterback this week, and I do not believe he's worth anywhere close to 3.5 points, which is the difference in the line adjustment. There is a ton of value here in backing the Bills as a touchdown home underdog Sunday due to the quarterback situation. After all, Buffalo doesn’t ask its quarterbacks to do too much.

That’s because the Bills have the luxury of one of the best rushing attacks in the league. They are averaging 152.6 rushing yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense. Lewis will be better off than he’s getting credit for because he doesn’t have to drop back and pass it 40 times for this offense to be successful. Plus, he’s a better runner than Manuel and can make plays with his feet if need be.

Having last played Cleveland on Thursday, October 3, the Bills have had three extra days to get Lewis ready, which is huge. That extra time and preparation will pay off for Lewis, who went 22 of 32 for 204 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his lone career start. That start came in December of 2012 in a 24-10 loss to Pittsburgh. I'd say that all in all, that was a pretty solid performance against a great defense. Teams coming of a Thursday game the previous week have gone 7-1 against the spread in 2013. That extra time off is really paying dividends for these teams.

Buffalo has played its best football at home this year, posting a 2-1 record with wins over Carolina and Baltimore. Its lone home loss came on a last-second field goal to New England by a final of 21-23 as a 10-point underdog. Cincinnati is 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Chicago and Cleveland. It has clearly played its worst football of the season away from home. You certainly have to question the fact that the Bengals are favored by a touchdown here when they haven’t proven they can play well on the road yet.

The Bills are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with the Bengals. Plays against favorites (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is a perfect 7-0 against the spread off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Bills are 6-0 against the number in their last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the home team in this one. Take the Bills Sunday.









NFL | Oct 13 '13 (1:00p)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs NY Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
+1+105 (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_420b_652) at BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/)


15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers +1

The Pittsburgh Steelers are desperate for a win to turn their season around. They realize there is still a lot of football left to be played with three-fourths of their season remaining. Their bye week came at a perfect time, which will allow them to regroup after an 0-4 start. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a big win at Atlanta on Monday Night Football, which puts them on a short week and in a letdown spot here. The edge in rest and preparation clearly favors Pittsburgh.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers have been a much better team than their record would indicate. They are actually outgaining opponents by roughly 20 yards per game, which would be the sign of a winning team rather than one that is 0-4 at this point in the season. They rank 18th in the league in total offense at 341.5 yards per game, and 10th in total defense at 321.7 yards per game. Their problem has been turnovers as they are -11 in turnover differential. They have yet to force a single turnover defensively, which is unheard of and will even out over time.

Pittsburgh has gotten a nice boost offensively in recent weeks with the return of tight end Heath Miller and first-round running back Le’Veon Bell. All Bell did was rush for 57 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching four balls for 27 yards in the loss to Minnesota in London. He gives the Steelers a real threat in the running game that they haven’t had for a long time. Miller already has nine catches for 105 yards in just two games, and he’s a huge part of this offense. Big Ben loves to find him when he’s in trouble, and he simply opens up the field for everyone else. Look for this Pittsburgh offense to thrive going forward.

Geno Smith had a great performance Monday Night, and he has been hearing about it through the media all week long. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards with three touchdowns. It was a good performance, but you have to remember that Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the league. I believe Smith will let that performance go to his head, and now he'll up against a much tougher Pittsburgh defense this week that will get after him. Smith has still turned the ball over 11 times this season, including eight interceptions. I'm not going to let one solid game take away from the fact that this is still a rookie with a ton of growing to do.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) – after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. New York is 1-8 against the spread after going over the total in one or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. The Steelers are 9-3 against the number in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jets are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Steelers Sunday.









NFL | Oct 13 '13 (4:05p)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars
+27½-110 (http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_1020b_102) at sia (http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_1020b_102)


15* Jaguars/Broncos AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +27.5

Even with how bad Jacksonville has been, any time the books are going to give me nearly four touchdowns in an NFL game, I'm going to look to take it. There’s no question that Denver is the more talented team by far, but asking it to win by four touchdowns to beat you is asking too much. After all, there have only been six previous favorites of 20 or more points in the NFL dating back to 1980. Those six favorites have gone 0-6 against the spread. With the parity in the NFL, it’s too tough to ask a team to lay more than 20 points, let alone 27.5.

The Broncos are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a wild 51-48 win at Dallas last week, which clearly took a lot of energy and effort. Now, they play the Indianapolis Colts next week, and there’s no question that if Peyton Manning was ever going to look ahead to a game, it would be this one. He desperately wants revenge against his former team for trading him away. The Broncos probably feel like they just have to show up to win Sunday, which is a dangerous mentality.

Denver has been atrocious defensively this year, giving up 27.8 points and 416.6 total yards per game to rank 28th in the league in total defense. Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the season in a 20-34 loss at St. Louis last week, which was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Jaguars outgained the Rams 363-351, but lost due to finishing -3 in turnover differential. Two of those turnovers were charged to Blaine Gabbert, who was knocked out of the game with an injury. Chad Henne replaced him and played well, completing 7 of 13 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. I have much more confidence in the Jaguars with Henne under center rather than Gabbert, who has thrown one touchdown against seven interceptions this season. Henne is completing 55.8 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions this year.

Justin Blackmon made his return to the lineup last week from a four-game suspension and made an immediate impact. He caught five balls for 136 yards and a score. Blackmon and Cecil Shorts form one of the most underrated receiving duos in the league, and when they’re on the field at the same time, this is a much more potent offense. Shorts has 31 receptions for 411 yards and a touchdown on the season, and he's glad to have Blackmon back to take some attention away from him.

The great thing about catching nearly four touchdowns is the fact that the favorite will let off the gas after a certainly point. If Denver is up three or four touchdowns in the third quarter, there's no need to play Peyton Manning the rest of the way. That's where the Jaguars would have an excellent chance to win the second half and cover the spread with ease, even if it were to take a back door cover. Only once this season has Denver won a game by more than 22 points. It has taken Peyton Manning out in the second half of a couple blowout victories as well.

Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Denver is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games after scoring 25 points or more in five straight games. The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jaguars have won five of their last six meetings with the Broncos. The underdog is 5-1 against the number in the last six meetings. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.







-= TOP PLAY =-


NFL | Oct 13 '13 (8:30p)
Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins
+6-110 (http://record.bettingpartners.com/_wWGnrqHo-eSBKOxorkQ2_WNd7ZgqdRLk/1/) at bodog (http://sports.bovada.lv/)


25* Redskins/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +6

The Washington Redskins have given the Dallas Cowboys all they have wanted and more over the last several years. They won both meetings last year, winning 38-31 in Dallas and 28-18 at home with the NFC East title on the line. In fact, only once in the last 13 meetings has Washington lost to Dallas by more than 5 points. That’s a 12-1 system backing the Redskins when you factor in the 6-point spread. Plus, Washington is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 meetings with the Cowboys, including 6-0 in its last six meetings in Dallas. Also, the underdog is 23-7 against the number in the last 30 meetings.

There’s no question that the Redskins have struggled in the early going. But you have to remember that this team went 3-6 through its first nine games last year, only to reel off seven straight victories to close out the season to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. The Redskins aren’t about to pack it in at this point after what happened last year. There’s still a lot to like about this team now that they are back on track after a 24-14 victory over Oakland last time out.

Now, Washington has had two full weeks to prepare for Dallas as it will be coming off its bye. The offense has still been dynamic, averaging 390.7 total yards per game to rank 7th in the NFL in total offense. Robert Griffin III and company should have their way with a Dallas defense that ranks 27th in the league in total defense at 409.2 yards per game, including 28th against the pass at 326.4 yards per game.

Alfred Morris is good to go following the bye week after suffering a rib injury in the Week 4 win over Oakland. Morris rushed for 313 yards and four touchdowns in two meetings with Dallas last year. Griffin III threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns in the 38-31 win in Dallas last season.

I look for the Cowboys to suffer a hangover from their 48-51 loss to the Denver Broncos last week. They came so close to winning that game, and it's going to be tough to regroup in time to face a Washington that is fresh and ready to go following the bye.

Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr has made the foolish mistake of giving Robert Griffin III added motivation heading into this one. "He doesn't look the same," Carr said Thursday on the NFL Network. "That's not saying we're going to fall asleep on him. He still has the same arm strength. He still has same type of elusive ability once he gets outside the pocket. ... But we know he's not the same." The last thing you want to do is add fuel to the fire against a division rival, and you can bet that Griffin III has heard the comments and will be more determined than ever to prove his doubters wrong Sunday night.

Washington is 7-0 against the spread vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons. The Redskins are 6-1 against the number in their last seven vs. NFC East opponents. The Cowboys are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record. Dallas is 3-10 against the number in its last 13 vs. NFC East opponents. Bet the Redskins Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner:

2000* NFL Over 42 Rams/Texans
100* NFL Bengals -4
50* NFL Eagles -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS consultants football lock club

8* Over Cowboys
7* Under 49ers
6* Jets, Seahawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior October 13, 2013 6:17 AM by Mark Mayer

NFL Football

215 Pittsburgh Steelers EVEN: Public heavily backing Steelers, knocking line down from Jets -2½.

218 Buffalo Bills +6: Bills simply play better at home and worth taking the points.

220 Seattle Seahawks -13: Robert Wilson gets the Seattle offense back in gear.

222 Denver Broncos +20 (first half bet vs. Jax): This way no worries about back door cover or Peyton leaving early.

227 Washington Redskins +5½: Always wise to take this many points in an NFC East game.

NHL Hockey

6 Winnipeg Jets -145: More of a wager against New Jersey.

Baseball American League Championship

907 Detroit Tigers / 908 Boston Red Sox UNDER 7½: Scherzer vs. Buchholz should be a pitcher’s duel.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Football Play of the Day October 13, 2013 6:23 AM by GT Staff

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings -2

As insensitive as the sports betting business can be at times, there’s no getting around that the senseless death of Adrian Peterson’s young son weighs heavily in this selection. AP says he’s a go and the Vikings will play like a team possessed in rallying behind him.

212 Minnesota Vikings -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday's Consensus Picks October 13, 2013 6:28 AM by GT Staff

NFL Football

203 Oakland Raiders +9: Oakland playing good ball and they are fresh off of a much needed win over the Chargers last week as a five point dog, they are a big dog on this game but their defense will keep them in the game. 5-0 home favorites in the NFL have not fared very well in game six of the season going 1-5 ATS since 2007 and to make things better for the Raiders the Kansas City Chiefs have gone 0-11 ATS as a division favorite losing 10 of those games straight up.

210 Cleveland Browns +3: The red hot Browns a dog at home and dogs in this role have gone a nice 9-2 ATS plus teams in the NFL coming off a Thursday win have gone 27-9 SU in their next game.

214 Houston Texans -7½: Head Coach Kubiak has done his best work in spots like this as his clubs have gone 7-1 ATS at home off of back-to-back straight up losses.

215 Pittsburgh Steelers +2: The Steelers need to right the ship especially after the Pirates got knocked out of the Pennant race, They have dominated the Jets in this series and look to get the needed win today, BIG BEN GETS IT DONE!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor NFL Picks - 10/13

Original - Texans -7

3.0 - Bengals -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY

4* BEST BET = TAMPA BAY
3* = CLEVELAND
3* = BUFFALO
2* = WASHINGTON
2* = "UNDER" on CHIEFS/RAIDERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges Late Selections

VERY STRONG PLAYS

None


STRONG PLAYS:

Seattle -13 1/2 Tennessee


REGULAR STRENGTH PLAYS:

Pittsburgh +1 NY Jets
Baltimore +3 Green Bay
Carolina +2 Minnesota
Buffalo +7 Cincy
Washington--Dallas OVER 53 1/2
Washington +5 1/2 Dallas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J. Clifton Plays NFL

Seattle
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Houston
Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Sunday NFL Comp Pick

Saints +2.5 over Patriots

I don’t doubt the ability of Tom Brady or the head coach of the Patriots, but this team has no offensive talent. The skilled players are just not good enough to make noise in this league. The Saints don’t have that problem. Who is going to stop their skilled players? Believe it or not I think the real damage will be done on the ground today. Wilfork going down was huge, but now Kelly is out also on defense. This line is looking pretty weak and if you give Drew Brees time forget it. This is a huge mismatch. Take the Saints.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex B. Smith Sports

NFL
1* on Steelers (+2) vs Jets
1* on Panthers (+2.5) vs Vikings
1* on Panthers (ML +115) vs Vikings
1* on Saints (+2.5) vs Patriots

NHL
Ducks (ML -150) vs Senators
Hurricanes (ML -120) vs Coyotes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tigers at Red Sox: What bettors need to know

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-121, 7)

The two highest-scoring teams in the majors combined for one run in the opener of the American League Championship Series and the Detroit Tigers look to make it consecutive victories when they visit the Boston Red Sox in Sunday’s Game 2. Detroit’s Jhonny Peralta drove in the lone run on a night in which Boston’s only hit was Daniel Nava’s one-out single in the ninth. The Red Sox struck out 17 times to match a postseason record for a nine-inning game.

Boston, which led the majors with 853 runs in the regular season, was blanked at home in the postseason for the first time since a Game 5 loss to the Chicago Cubs in the 1918 World Series. The task doesn’t get easier in Game 2 when the Red Sox face 21-game winner Max Scherzer. “A guy that’s a potential Cy Young winner,” Nava said after Saturday’s game. “Of course, it doesn’t get any easier.” Peralta went 3-for-4 and was serenaded by the Boston fans due to his 50-game suspension for violating baseball’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. “I don’t try to pay attention about what the fans are doing or whatever,” Peralta said. “I try to do my job.”

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with clear skies and winds blowing east at 3 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74)

Scherzer suffered one of his three defeats at Fenway Park while splitting two starts against Boston. He won two games in the AL Division Series against Oakland – the second coming in relief – and held right-handed hitters to a .165 average in the regular season. Scherzer struck out 10 or more batters nine times, including 11 against the Athletics in his ALDS start.

Buchholz went 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in nine home starts this season. He didn’t face Detroit during an injury interrupted campaign and has a 2-1 record and 3.58 ERA in eight career starts against the Tigers. Buchholz received a no-decision in his ALDS start against Tampa Bay, allowing three runs and seven hits in six innings.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in Scherzers last eight starts vs. Red Sox.
* Red Sox are 5-1 in Buchholzs last six starts vs. Tigers.
* Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
* Tigers are 16-36 in the last 52 meetings in Boston.

UMP TRENDS - Rob Drake:

* Over is 6-0-2 in Drakes last 8 games behind home plate.
* Road team is 14-3 in Drakes last 17 games behind home plate.
* Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games with Drake behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox DH David Ortiz is 7-for-15 with three homers and six RBIs against Scherzer and CF Jacoby Ellsbury is 5-for-9 with five RBIs.

2. Peralta has seven RBIs in 17 career at-bats against Buchholz, while RF Torii Hunter is 3-for-21.

3. Detroit was 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position in the opener; Boston was 0-for-6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning

GOY Wash

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StevieY

Pittsburgh/NY Jets (Under 41.5)
Green Bay/Baltimore (Over 48)
Oakland +8 at Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

joe gavazzi

4 san fran

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ats Insiders Club

Cincinnati -4.5
Dallas -5.5
49ers -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bryan leonard

new eng
pitt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence

tb
pitt
sd

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Rainy (Rainman)

Eagles
Seattle
Jets
Carolina
ravens
Det/Clevelan Under44

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

100 NO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
20* WASHINGTON +5.5
10* SEATTLE -13.5
10* INDY -1.5
10* HOUSTON -7.5
10* OAKLAND +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mysystempicks
Patriots,
tampa,
pittsburg,
carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

-Ultra Rare-

100 DIME

NFL UNDERDOG SHOCKER

#2 IN A ROW

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4_SEASONS NFL Power Plays of the Day
CLEVELAND +2.5
SEATTLE -13
DENVER -26.5
SAN FRANCISCO -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Dallas -5

New Orleans +2.5

Houston -7

Bufalo +7

Free pick

Jacksonville +27.5

MLB

Boston +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al -
Steelers,
Patriots,
Under Jags,
Panthers,
Bills,
Bucs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports-Junkie

BetThisPick

$500 NFL Play: Steelers +1 vs Jets

$500 NFL Play: Browns +1 vs Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lance's Locks

Kansas City/Oakland Under Total 41

Seattle/Tennesse Under Total 41

Dallas/Washington Over Total 52

Buffalo +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella 3 gom Balt-Over

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Kelso

50 cincinnati

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maxwell's LTD (swami)

10* Tampa Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 10/13
Green Bay Packers -2.5 (buy half point to -2) over the Baltimore Ravens - EARLY Play Starts at 1:00 PM EST
(System Record: 154-5, Won last game)
Overall Record: 154-133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Phoenix is off to 3-2 start, with four of five games played on road.
-- Kings won three of first five games (2-1 on road, both wins in SOs).
-- Ducks won their last three games, scoring 13 goals.

Cold teams
-- Hurricanes lost three of their first five games.
-- Florida lost three of its last four games.
-- Jets lost their last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Senators lost their last three games, all by one goal.

Series records
-- Road team won last two Phoenix-Carolina games.
-- Home side won last three LA-Florida games.
-- Devils are 9-4 in last thirteen games against Winnipeg.
-- Ducks won their last five games with Ottawa.

Totals
-- Four of five Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Last three LA-Florida games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Three of first four Anaheim games went over the total.

[golden contender]

Huge Sunday Card has 6* 31-0 NFL Non Conference Game of the Year and a 5* 100% Total of the month averaging 56 points per game. There are 5 Big plays up all with System that are Perfect long term or close to it. Sunday night football + MLB and more. Football remains at or near the top of All major Leader boards. This is the deepest NFL Card so far this year. Free NFL System Club Play below.

On Sunday the free NFL System Club Play is on the Cleveland Browns. Game 210 at 1:00 eastern. In a battle of 3-2 teams we will back the home dog here as Teams like Cleveland that home dogs of 2.5 or higher have covered 9 of 11 times in the last of a 3+ game home stand if they won their last game by a touchdown or more. Another fine system that has been cashing big is to play on Teams who won on a Thursday vs an opponent off an ats loss on a Sunday. These teams that have the extra days of prep time have made good use of it. The Lions have lost 15 of 20 vs winning teams and are 2-11 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less. Calvin Johnson has been limited with a nagging knee injury most of the week and may not play here and if he does may be limited. The Browns have played well with Gordon back in the fold and he has meshed well with QB Weeden. Cleveland has a defense that is over 90 yards better statistically. With Detroit 1-8 to the spread as a road favorite off a straight up and ats loss. We will back Cleveland as we See what Brown can do for you. On Sunday we have a Truly Tremendous card led by the amazing 6* 31-0 Non Conference Game Of the Year and a 5* NFL Total of the Month. There is also an Early 96% Dog with Bite, MLB, a 3 team teaser, Sunday night Football and More. Football remains ranked at or near the Top of all Major Leader boards. Message to Jump on now as we Cash big Columbus Day weekend. For the free play take Cleveland. GC

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Kelso full card

100 saints
50 cinn
15 ravens
10 Seattle
5 under chiefs

10 tigers baseball

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Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Saturday with the Red Sox -$140/Tigers.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the Red Sox -$110/Tigers.

"Mr Chalk" is 4-4 -$155 for the week 108-70 +$395 for the 2013 MLB season.

For Sunday action in the NFL Ben lee likes

(1) *Seahawks -13/Titans (Best Bet)

(2) Texans -7/Rams

$50 on each.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

z play
carolina

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PSYCHIC
5* Arizona +10.5 (WISEGUY)
3* Cowboys -5.5

WIZARD
10* Eagles over 45.5
10* Texans -7.5
10* Cowboys under 53
10* Cowboys -5.5
10* Tigers

JT WALKER
Saints +2.5

Kenny Nguyen
50* Raiders +6 (1H) *GOY*
40* Browns +2.5

Totals 4 U
Texans OVER 42

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Northcoast Marquee

Washington +5.5

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Dwayne Bryant:

3* MAX play

Houston Texans-7 1/2

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Cleveland Insider

NFL
1* Eagles/Buccaneers over 45
1* Steelers/Jets under 41

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Arthur Ralph

Super pk Det Lions - 2 1/2

Trophy plays Seattle - 12 1/2, Oakland + 8

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Rich Allen Betting Line Moves

Pittsburgh Pk
Dallas -5.5

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Joe Gavazzi

10 oak
10 Philly
10 wash
7 Gbay
7 hou
5 Car.
5 Sfran

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Seabass Report for Sunday:
50 OVER Red Sox
100 Oakalnd
100 Green Bay
100 Carolina
100 San Francisco
200 Washington
200 teaser Pittsburgh and UNDER(same game)

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Jimmy Boyd
3* (MLB) Boston Red Sox ML -108

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Northcoast

GOM
Houston

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Las Vegas Pipeline --- Texans

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Wayne Root

Patriots

Upset Club - Panthers, Bucs, Chiefs

Millionaire - Steelers

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goodfella

2 unit tease on saints and oak

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NorthCoast

4.5 Hou (GOM)
3 Det
3 Sea
marquee Wash

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Kevin O'Neill

Pittsburgh
Washington

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Vegas Runner

3* Bucs
3* Cards
2* Ravens
2* Broncos Under
2* Biills

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treyspicks

Oakland Raiders
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
2 Team 7 Pt Teaser Houston -1 to Baltimore +10
Philadelphia Eagles

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OC Dooley:“1 UNIT” LATE AFTERNOON NFL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Patriots -1’ at home versus Saints in a 4:25 eastern kickoff in the national “doubleheader” telecast on FOX): This is a major REVENGE contest for both the Patriots and their star quarterback. The last time these pair of league heavyweights met was on the Monday Night national stage back in the 2009 campaign when the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints feasted on the overwhelmed Patriots in a 38-17 final verdict where Drew Brees had a record passer rating (158.3) that included five different touchdown passes. Midway through the final quarter of that infamous contest New England virtually threw in the towel replacing Tom Brady with backup Brian Hoyer. Even though the rosters have changed for both sides since than odds are that both coach Bill Belichick and Brady will not forget that humiliation. Drew Brees is now “3-0” versus Tom Brady in their NFL careers with the only time Brady coming out on top was in 1999 at the collegiate level. With all of the injuries and attrition which has caused New England to use untested rookies at receiving spots, one can argue that the wrong side is favored in today’s rematch as New Orleans is the only undefeated side remaining in the NFC while tight end Jimmy Graham is on the brink of setting an all-time league record at that position with four consecutive 100-yard receiving efforts. But while the Saints are excelling on both sides of the football with Sean Peyton back as the head coach, the team with him at the helm long term (6-11 ATS) has struggled where it counts on the ROAD. The big news in New England surrounds the questionable health of star tight end Rob Gronkowski which reportedly has caused strife in the lockeroom but that has only given up rare price “value” in a Patriots home game for which I am taking advantage

[Can'tPickAWinner]

executive 300 Carolina 300 kc

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Sports Unlimited (Marco)
7* New England
5* Carolina
5* 2 Team Teaser Pittsburg and Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

red suit

Bucs/philly over 44-

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Veritas Sports Investments
4-2 yest
NFL
Jax+27
Jets+1.5
Tampa Bay+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL betting: Lions WR Johnson to start versus Browns

Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson has been listed as active and will start versus the Cleveland Browns today.

Johnson went through pre-game warmups before the team determined weather he was fit enough to play.

The big WR is one of the best at his position and leads Detroit with 21 catches, 312 yards receiving and four touchdowns.

According to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com, Johnson is worth around three points to the spread.

“If you are were to include Calvin with quarterbacks, I would put him behind Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson,” says Perry.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tigers-Red Sox
Scherzer is 4-0, 2.17 in his last five outings; he tossed two innings in relief on Tuesday; he is 2-0, 3.00 in his last four starts-- five of his last six starts went under the total. Scherzer split two starts with Boston this year, allowing two runs in seven IP in both games.

Buchholz is 1-1, 4.26 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts went over the total. He didn't pitch against Detroit this year; last year, he allowed 10 runs in 12 IP in two starts against Detroit.

Detroit won last three games, allowing six runs, after losing seven of previous 10 games; eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.

Boston scored seven runs in their last three games, but eight of their last ten games went over total. Red Sox are 3-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 5-3 in those games. Boston is 3-4 in its last seven games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ness

My 10* AFC Total G.O.Y. is on Ten/Sea Over at 4:05 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
large
houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports bank
500 baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saints at Patriots: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 50.5)

A week after Tom Brady saw his streak of consecutive games throwing a touchdown pass end at 52, the New England quarterback hopes the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski will ignite a spark in the Patriots' offense when they host the New Orleans Saints. Gronkowski appears finally ready to return to the lineup after missing the first five weeks of the season following back surgery. New England is hoping to rebound from one of its worst offensive showings in recent memory when it failed to score a touchdown in a 13-6 loss at Cincinnati.

New Orleans is one of three undefeated teams in the NFL after passing a big test at Chicago a week ago. The Saints, who have their own star tight end in Jimmy Graham -- who leads the league with 593 receiving yards and ranks third in the NFL in total offense. Drew Brees is 3-0 all-time against the Patriots but the teams haven't met since 2009 when the quarterback threw five touchdown passes in a 38-17 rout.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: The Patriots opened -1. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-0): The Saints continue to exploit defenses taking of advantage of mismatches with Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. A week after Sproles toasted the Dolphins for a pair of receiving TDs, Thomas caught two scoring passes against the Bears. With coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines, not only is the offense clicking but the Saints' defense, which was near historic in its ineptitude last season, is now fourth in the NFL by allowing just 14.6 points a game.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-1): The Pats got back wide receiver Danny Amendola in last week's 13-6 setback but he caught just four passes and looked rusty as New England failed to score a touchdown for the first time since a 16-9 loss to the Jets in 2009. Gronkowski gives Brady his first full complement of targets since the season began but running back Stevan Ridley remains questionable with a knee injury. New England has won eight of its past nine games at home.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 19-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady enters the game ranked 17th in the league is passing yardage and his rating of 52.2 last week was his worst since 2007.

2. Graham has 100 yards receiving in four straight games, tied for the NFL record for tight ends.

3. The Saints have the fewest turnovers (five) in the NFC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Neri

3* Seattle

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Scott Spreitzer NFL Afternoon Annihilator

New England

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Sunday Night Football betting: Redskins at Cowboys

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 52)

Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys are coming off an historic offensive performance - it’s the defense that needs to be tightened. The Cowboys and their 28th-ranked defense will look to turn things around in the NFC East when they host the division-rival Washington Redskins on Sunday. Romo threw for a franchise-record 506 yards and five touchdowns last week but Dallas still suffered a 51-48 loss to the Denver Broncos.

Romo took some criticism for an interception toward the end of regulation that led to Denver’s go-ahead score, but the franchise quarterback can’t be blamed for a defense surrendering an average of 326.4 passing yards. The Redskins have their own problems on defense but got an extra week to prepare for the Cowboys and used the time to let quarterback Robert Griffin III’s surgically repaired knee rest during the Week 5 bye. Washington is looking for its first divisional victory and emerged from the dregs of the winless with a 24-14 triumph at Oakland in Week 4.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Cowboys opened -4.5 and are now -5.5. The total opened 53 and is down to 52.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3): Griffin appeared tentative at times in the first four weeks and ran only 18 times for 72 yards in those contests. The second-year stud put up one of his best performances last year at Dallas, when he passed for 304 yards and four touchdowns and led Washington on a key field-goal drive late in the fourth quarter to help sew up a 38-31 victory. The Redskins surrendered an average of 32.7 points in their first three games but tightened things up in the victory over Oakland, holding the Raiders to 298 yards while forcing three turnovers.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-3): Dallas is tied for first place in the unimpressive NFC East and is staring at two straight divisional opponents with a trip to Philadelphia scheduled for Week 7. The Cowboys proved they could hang with anyone offensively last week, and Romo found a third receiver in Terrance Williams (151 yards, one touchdown) to go along with Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten and give the offense another dimension. The defense is getting burned by the big play, allowing 20 receptions of 20-plus yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last six vs. NFC East.
* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Redskins RB Alfred Morris rushed for 313 yards and four TDs in the two meetings last season.

2. Romo has 19 TDs and two INTs in his last six home games.

3. Washington WR Santana Moss needs 113 yards to reach 10,000 for his career.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

9xSports 10/13

dallas cowboys-5
new orleans saints+1.5
new jersey devils+104
detroit tigers+119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The late games...GL!

Game 227-228: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.027; Dallas 137.718
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5 1/2); Over

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 62-41 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Dallas: 7-18 ATS against conference opponents

Redskins (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-3)—Washington comes in off first win, then its bye; last year was Skins’ first post-bye win the last five years. Extra week had to be good for Texas native Griffin’s rehab process; Redskins swept Dallas 38-31/28-18 LY, just second time they’ve done that in last 18 years (’05 being other year). Skins lost three of last four visits here, with losses by combined total of six points (1-3-2). Dallas is off 51-48 loss in epic home battle vs Broncos, which had to be little draining for both sides; Cowboys lost three of last four games but are 2-0 as home favorites this year, after being 3-17 from 2010-12. Cowboys are moving ball well; only 15 of their last 110 plays came on third down, but defense was torched for 808 passing yards last two weeks, by Rivers/Manning (9.2/9.9 ypa). Divisional home favorites are 10-6 vs spread, 5-3 if number was 5+ points. Four of last five series totals were 46+.

NFLBettingPicks
Kevin
2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -6 (+102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)

Colin Cowherd
WASH +5.5 (27-28)

Wunderdog Sports
Game: Washington at Dallas (Sunday 10/13 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 53 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)

Jimmy Boyd
3* Redskins +6

King Creole
4* Redskins / Cowboys Over

Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole
SINGLE PLAY
Dallas--Washington - OVER 53 1/2

Todays Best Bets
4* Washington Redskins +5.5 -110

Pointspreadpros
TOP Play
DALLAS -5

Stephen Nover
WAS double-dime bet

cappers access
washington

Intpicks
2* Redskins

NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER
FORECASTER: Dallas 29, Washington 27

Sports Reporter's Best Bets:
Wash over Dall by 8

ATS consultants football lock club
8u Dallas/wash Over 52-

hondo
Wash

Mighty Quinn
wash

Wolkosky Milan
20* WASHINGTON REDSKINS +5½

Jack Jones
25* Redskins/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +6

Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior October 13, 2013 6:17 AM by Mark Mayer
227 Washington Redskins +5½: Always wise to take this many points in an NFC East game.

EAGLE EYE---Randy Rose
Dallas Cowboys-5.5

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY
2* = WASHINGTON

Norm Hitzges Late Selections
REGULAR STRENGTH PLAYS:
Washington--Dallas OVER 53 1/2
Washington +5 1/2 Dallas

Erin Rynning
GOY Wash

Ats Insiders Club
Dallas -5.5

Teddy Covers
20* WASHINGTON +5.5

TMC Sports Advisors
Dallas -5

Lance's Locks
Dallas/Washington Over Total 52

PSYCHIC
3* Cowboys -5.5

WIZARD
10* Cowboys under 53
10* Cowboys -5.5

Northcoast Marquee
Washington +5.5

Rich Allen Betting Line Moves
Dallas -5.5

Seabass
200 Washington

Joe Gavazzi
10 wash

Kevin O'Neill
Washington

9xSports
dallas cowboys-5

Steve Behr
3 Dime Redskins +5.5

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -139 over Detroit Tigers (pending)
Detroit Tigers + Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5

Game 907-908: Detroit at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.544; Boston (Buchholz) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Under

Winning Angle Sports
Boston +100 over Detroit (TOP PLAY)

JIMMY BOYD
3* Main Event on Boston Red Sox -108

EAGLE EYE---Billy Joe Hershey
Detroit Tigers
Tigers / Redsox Over 7

TMC Sports Advisors
Boston +100

Kelso
10 tigers

"Mr Chalk"
likes the Red Sox -$110/Tigers

WIZARD
10* Tigers

Seabass
50 OVER Red Sox

9xSports
detroit tigers+119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Burns 10* Blue Chip Total Cowboys game UNDER

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LA Syndicate

Top Play Redskins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Top Play Detroit Tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Cowboys seeing bulk of money

Sunday Night Football brings us an old-fashioned NFC East battle between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on the Sunday Night Football matchup and where oddsmakers see the line closing come kickoff:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 51.5)

Recent history tells us that the Redskins have put up some excellent numbers against the spread versus the Cowboys.

The 'Skins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Dallas and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings overall.

But it certainly hasn't been a great start to the season for the Redskins.

Washington is just 1-3 both SU and ATS to start the season and will need a big showing at Big D Sunday night.

The Cowboys are coming off a great showing in a loss against the red-hot Denver Broncos one week ago. Because of the promising effort, money has been coming in on the Cowboys.

They opened as 4.5-point faves at the majority of wagering outlets and can be had from -5 to -6 depending on where you shop.

"After last week’s heartbreaking loss, expect the Cowboys to be playing with a chip on their shoulder," Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.com told Covers. "Fifty-nine percent of cash is on Dallas."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner:

3* Boston Red Sox
he also suggest "sprinkling a little something" on the RL at +175.