UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa March 8th

[poopoo333]

Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Gustafsson)
vs.
Jimi Manuwa (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimi_Manuwa)






Lightweight
Michael Johnson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Johnson_%28fighter%29)
vs.
Melvin Guillard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melvin_Guillard)






Flyweight
Brad Pickett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Pickett)
vs.
Neil Seery






Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnar_Nelson_%28fighter%29)
vs.
Omari Akhmedov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omari_Akhmedov)






Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)


Light Heavyweight
Cyrille Diabaté (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrille_Diabat%C3%A9)
vs.
Ilir Latifi






Middleweight
Luke Barnatt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luke_Barnatt)
vs.
Mats Nilsson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mats_Nilsson)






Middleweight
Brad Scott (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Scott_%28fighter%29)
vs.
Cláudio Henrique da Silva






Bantamweight
Davey Grant
vs.
Roland Delorme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Delorme)






Welterweight
Igor Araújo
vs.
Danny Mitchell






Flyweight
Phil Harris (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Harris_%28fighter%29)
vs.
Louis Gaudinot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Gaudinot)

[edman5555]

Liking gustafson and ilir latifi. I dont see what manuwa has for gustaffson. Aside from knocking him out i doubt he has a chance. I am thinking ilir latifi will probably be able to take down cyrille diabate. Hoping to get him as a dog.

[poopoo333]

I plan on making a big bet on Gustafsson/Jones parlay. Sucks they are a month apart, but I think it is easy money. It currently pays out -229 from -400/-650 so I am going to wait to make this bet. I think Gustafsson point spread to kick the parlay off is a good idea. I don't see Manuwa winning a round and I also see him tiring late and getting stopped. I won't lay the -170 on Gus ITD though, just based on his tendency to go to the cards lately. I am hoping the point spread comes out to at least -275 which would bring the line down to -177.

[edman5555]

I see the same with manuwa. He either gets tkod or subbed. I bet the sub would come easier.

[poopoo333]

Good point about Latifi. I forgot that he is a solid wrestler and that is usually Diabate's kryptonite. He has definitely improved in that regard though, considering the Tom DeBlass fight.

Michael Johnson vs Melvin Guillard is going to be a great fight too. I actually lean towards Michael Johnson here but it is a pretty close one.

I'm not sure who Neil Seery is, but he is a late replacement for Ian McCall so I am sure Brad Pickett is going to be heavily favored and end up winning.

It is good to see Gunnar Nelson back, but I don't know a thing about the person that he is fighting. Unfortunately, it will be hard to get a good indicator of how he is because all of his fights have ended in the first round.

[edman5555]

Latifi should be a better wrestler than tom deblass. Diabate is coming off a long layoff, an injury, and he is 40. Latifi should look better this time around with a training camp under his belt. That said i am a little worried that he might have some trouble getting inside on diabate to take him down. Well see. I am really hoping latifi is a dog.

[edman5555]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu3ktmkdaRU

ilir latifi vs Emanuel newton

[edman5555]

Good point about Latifi. I forgot that he is a solid wrestler and that is usually Diabate's kryptonite. He has definitely improved in that regard though, considering the Tom DeBlass fight.

Michael Johnson vs Melvin Guillard is going to be a great fight too. I actually lean towards Michael Johnson here but it is a pretty close one.

I'm not sure who Neil Seery is, but he is a late replacement for Ian McCall so I am sure Brad Pickett is going to be heavily favored and end up winning.

It is good to see Gunnar Nelson back, but I don't know a thing about the person that he is fighting. Unfortunately, it will be hard to get a good indicator of how he is because all of his fights have ended in the first round.

I just watched the Tom Deblass fight. Deblass took Diabate down in the first round very quickly. He maintained top position the entire round. In round two he took him down quickly and maintained top position for about two minutes. He advanced position as well. Diabate ended up getting on top during a scramble and the jockeyed for position for a while. The thing is Deblass took the fight on one weeks notice and had to travel from Jersey to Sweden. Deblass was breathing very heavily in round two. I think if Deblass had not gotten tired he would have won that fight pretty easily.

[edman5555]

Alright I watched the Diabate Manuwa fight and saw the same thing again. Diabate being taken down fairly easily. I am feeling pretty good about Latifi.

[Luke]

Guillard/Johnson is -120 both ways

Gunnar Nelson is -150

Brad Pickett is -400

and

Latifi is -120

at Euro books

[Mr. IWS]

Gunnar Nelson is -150



http://www.rankopedia.com/CandidatePix/151399.gif

[edman5555]

Guillard/Johnson is -120 both ways

Gunnar Nelson is -150

Brad Pickett is -400

and

Latifi is -120

at Euro books

What book? and damn i was hoping to get latifi as a dog.

[edman5555]

Guillard/Johnson is -120 both ways

Gunnar Nelson is -150

Brad Pickett is -400

and

Latifi is -120

at Euro books

What book? and damn i was hoping to get latifi as a dog.

[Mr. IWS]

What book? and damn i was hoping to get latifi as a dog.

[trotterz]

I see that most of you are on Latifi. I have a hard time to understand why you are so confident in him.
From what I remember in his fight with Mousasi, he had a really hard time closing the distance with mousasi. It will be even harder closing the distance on Diabate who is even longer (taller).

[Luke]

What book? and damn i was hoping to get latifi as a dog.

Euro

[poopoo333]

I see that most of you are on Latifi. I have a hard time to understand why you are so confident in him.
From what I remember in his fight with Mousasi, he had a really hard time closing the distance with mousasi. It will be even harder closing the distance on Diabate who is even longer (taller).

I won't be betting on either bum.

[Luke]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/751.png

[Luke]

I'm moving to Europe. They constantly have better lines then we get

[poopoo333]

Gus point spread/Pickett parlay should come out to -150 or so.

[edman5555]

Anyone else like melvin in this one?

[Luke]

Anyone else like melvin in this one?


No, actually like Johnson

[edman5555]

Yeah im already having second thougjts about betting melvin. Johnson has been looking great.

[Luke]

What time does this BS start Saturday?

[poopoo333]

I think 2? I dunno.


Gus by decision +403. I think that has pretty good value.

[trotterz]

any thoughts on Barnatt/Nilsson?

[poopoo333]

Barnatt wins easy imo. Don't think he will be able to be taken down and controlled and that's his only way to lose this one.

[edman5555]

Do you think barnatt is any good on the ground? That mat nilsson guy is a very good grappler.

[mike]

Brat Scott at -185 is a decent bet imo. He's got a solid chin and da silva has terrible striking. Silva has to get this to the ground and sub Scott to win this fight. Possible but probably not gonna happen.

[poopoo333]

Brat Scott at -185 is a decent bet imo. He's got a solid chin and da silva has terrible striking. Silva has to get this to the ground and sub Scott to win this fight. Possible but probably not gonna happen.

I agree. Also don't hate the over 1.5 rounds prop at -165.

[mike]

yeah I was tempted to bet the 01.5 at -165 also but decided not to because I dont know how good Da Silva's chin is and Scott fights very aggressive and high pace.