3-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Michael (YouWinNow)

#734 5* Cincinnati -2.5 (2:10 edt)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

Wofford / Michigan Over 127

Michigan St / Delaware Over 150.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

***Pittsburgh (-6) over Colorado

10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 719
Neither of these teams was as good in the second half of the season, as Pitt struggled after 6th man Durand Johnson was lost for the season after 16 games and Colorado really fell off after star Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season to injury early in their January 12th game at Washington. The Buffs were 14-2 and deserving of being highly ranked at the time but they’re just 9-9 since with their best win coming against Stanford. Most of Colorado’s wins without Dinwiddie were against teams that failed to make the NCAA Tournament and the Buffs really struggled against superior teams without Dinwiddie – losing by an average of 18 points in 5 games against UCLA and Arizona. Pitt is not quite UCLA and Arizona but the Panthers are better than the rest of the teams in Pac-12 and my ratings favor Pitt by 6.7 points in this game (with a total of 124 ½ points). The line value isn’t that significant but I like the match up of Pitt’s good interior defense against a Colorado team that can’t make outside shots (just 30.8% on 3-pointers as a team without Dinwiddie’s 41%). I also like that Pitt applies to a 63-16 ATS first round situation and the Panthers generally beat the teams that they’re supposed to beat. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-8 against teams that are ranked in my top 40 and 24-1 straight against everyone else. If the win straight up they are likely to cover too and I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany

01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.

***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer

09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.

**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin

04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).

Ohio State (-6) vs Dayton

09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 710
This comes down to a battle of Dayton’s efficient offense against Ohio State’s stifling defense, which ranks 4th in the nation in compensated points per possession. Dayton was relatively better against better offensively against better defensive teams and the Buckeyes’ relative strength defensively is 3-point defense while they are good, but not great, defending inside the arc (45.7% allowed on 2-point shots). Dayton doesn’t depend on 3-point shots, as they take a bit less than an average team, so the Flyers should perform relatively better offensively than expected. On the other side of the court Ohio State’s mediocre offense is going up against an equally mediocre defense and I don’t see any advantage to either side. Overall I assign a match up edge of 0.4 points to the Flyers my ratings favor Ohio State by 5.2 points (with a total of 129 ½ points). The line opened at 5 ½ points and has gone up but there isn’t enough value to recommend even a lean on the Flyers and Ohio State was close to qualifying in a pretty good round 1 situation. I’ll pass.

Syracuse (-13) over Western Michigan

11:45 AM Pacific Rotation: 712
Syracuse hasn’t been playing well lately, going just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, while Western Michigan is a pretty confident team after winning 12 of their last 13 games and pulling off two upset wins in the MAC tournament to get here. Western Michigan fits into the just happy to be here mold and the Broncos apply to a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS NCAA Tournament first round letdown situation. Syracuse, meanwhile, is likely to be more focused than normal given their recent struggles and the matchup is favorable given how much trouble the Broncos have had against really good defensive teams this season. Western Michigan has played 6 games against teams that rank in the top-50 in compensated defensive points per possession (Northwestern, Bowling Green, 2 games against Eastern Michigan and 2 games against Northern Illinois). In those 6 games the Broncos’ compensated offensive efficiency was 0.076 points per possession lower, so they were much worse on a relative basis against good defensive teams. Syracuse has a bit of an edge playing in their home state but adding that in with the match up advantage gives me a fair line of 12.3 points (and 124.5 total points). The line opened at 12 ½ and has gone up a bit but I’ll lean with Syracuse minus the points and I’ll lean Under the 128 point total.

Connecticut (-4 ½) vs St. Joseph’s

03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 714
Connecticut is one of the nation’s best defensive teams (11th in compensated defensive efficiency) but St. Joseph’s has a well-rounded offense and has an advantage of the Huskies’ defense from beyond the arc. Connecticut actually has a bigger advantage over the Hawks defense from 3-point range but the Huskies rank 203rd in the nation in 2-point shooting. This game will come down to which team is knocking down their 3-point shots and my ratings favor U Conn by just 3 points, so the line value favors the Hawks. However, The Huskies apply to a 43-11-1 ATS first round situation. With the line value favoring St. Joe’s and the situation favoring U Conn I am going to pass on this game at this number but I’d lean with Connecticut at -4 points or less. My math only projects 128.1 total points and Connecticut has gone Under the total in 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, so I’ll lean Under 130 points or higher.

Villanova (-16 ½) over Milwaukee

06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 716
Villanova mostly beat up on lesser teams this season, recording a very good 14-2 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or more. The only one of those games the Wildcats lost straight up was against Seton Hall in their opening Big East Tournament game and I expect that slap in the face to wake up Nova and have them ready for this first round match up against a very mediocre Milwaukee team. Milwaukee is actually a bit better than their overall rating, as top scorer Jordan Aaron was injured during a late season 5 game stretch, in which he missed 4 games and played hurt in the other. The result was a 1-4 record but the Aaron returned from the final regular season game and played well in 3 subsequent conference tournament victories to get them to this point. Milwaukee beat #1 seeded Green Bay twice but the only really good team that Panthers faced was Wisconsin and the result was a 26 point loss. Milwaukee’s recent good play sets them up in a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS first round letdown situation and Villanova’s loss to Seton Hall should have them focused for this game. Milwaukee actually has a slight matchup advantage because Villanova is ranked in the top 10 in most 3-point shots taken while Milwaukee is much better defending the 3-point arc (49th in the nation) than they are defending inside the arc (232nd in 2-point defense). Milwaukee also takes a lot of 3-point shots and Villanova is 233rd in 3-point defense (35.4% allowed) while being very good against 2-point shots (43.4% allowed, which is 19th in the nation). Villanova’s great 2-point defensive is relatively less valuable against a team that takes a lot of 3-point shots but I’ve included the matchup advantage into my ratings and I still get Nova by 16 points. The situation is certainly favorable and Nova generally beats up on bad teams, so I’ll consider Villanova a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less and I’ll lean slightly with the Under (The total is 140 points and I get 138.5).

St. Louis (-3) over NC State

04:20 PM Pacific Rotation: 721
NC State has been playing well lately and the Wolfpack have the best player on the floor in ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren. The Billikens, meanwhile, have been slumping lately, losing 4 of their last 5 games. But, while being grossly over-seeded St. Louis is still better than NC State if both teams play their normal game. However, this matchup works in NC State’s favor, as the strength of a very good St. Louis defense (8th in the nation in compensated points per possession) is their 3rd ranked 3-point defense (29.1% allowed). That’s not going to bother NC State that much since the Wolfpack don’t take many 3-pointers, as they rank 331st out of 351 teams in percentage of shots taken that are 3-point shots. So, St. Louis’s defense, while still very good, will not be relatively as good against NC State’s offense. My ratings, with the matchup adjustment included, favor St. Louis by 2 points (with a total of 133 ½ points), so there isn’t much value in this game. I’d lean with NC State at +3 ½ or more.

Manhattan (+16 ½) over Louisville

06:50 PM Pacific Rotation: 723
Manhattan doesn’t necessarily match up well with Louisville offensively, as the Jaspers are worse than average when it comes to turning the ball over and the Cardinals thrive on causing miscues (#2 in the nation in defensive turnovers). However, Louisville was relatively worse against better defensive teams and Manhattan ranks 22nd in the nation in compensated points per possession allowed when their top two defensive players (and top two scorers) George Beamon and Michael Alvarado are both playing. Manhattan plays a physical style of defense that leads to a lot of fouls and a lot of free throws taken by their opponents (their opponents attempted more free throws than field goals this season). That’s actually a good thing against a Louisville team that ranks 304th in the nation in free throw shooting at 65.9%. Overall the matchups are about even and my ratings favor Louisville by just 15 points (with a total of 145 points). The line opened at 15 ½ and has gone up and Louisville applies to a negative 26-53-2 ATS first round letdown based on winning their conference tournament. Manhattan won their conference tournament too and both teams enter this tournament after winning and covering all 3 games in their respective conference tournament. That favors Manhattan historically too, as NCAA Tournament dogs of 8 points or more are 12-1 ATS if both teams have covered the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The thing holding me back is Louisville’s 15-7 ATS mark this season as favorite of 12 points or more. I’ll still lean with Manhattan plus the points and I’ll consider the Jaspers a Strong Opinion at +17 or more.

Byu (+5 ½) vs Oregon

12:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 725
BYU and Oregon played earlier this in a 100-96 Ducks’ overtime win in Eugene and this should be another fun game to watch. My ratings only favor Oregon by 3 ½ points and the question is how much is the loss of BYU’s #2 scorer Kyle Collinsworth going to cost them? Collinsworth’s scoring efficiency is actually a negative compared to the rest of the team because of his horrible free throw shooting (57.6%) and he also leads the team in turnovers with 2.6 per game. On the positive side of Collinsworth’s stat line is his 4.6 assists and 1.7 steals per game, which will be tough to replace. Overall I value Collinsworth at 1 point and I favor Oregon by 4 ½ points in this game. As far as the total is concerned the math projects 166 ½ total points and these teams combined for 168 points in regulation in their first meeting despite combining for just 33.3% 3-point shooting. BYU is historically bad as an underdog (just 23-39-2 ATS under coach Dave Rose) and the Cougars are 0-10 straight up against teams seeded #9 or better in NCAA Tournament play. I have no opinion on the side but I’ll lean Over the total, which has gone down to 158 points.

Wisconsin (-13 ½) vs American

09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 728
American is the best of the 15 seeds in this tournament and they’re a very good shooting team when they are able to get off a shot before turning the ball over. You see, the Eagles rank very highly in field goal percentage at 49.4% but they are 342nd out of 351 Division 1 teams in offensive turnover percentage. Their first round match up with Wisconsin is actually perfect since the Badgers don’t use defensive pressure and rank 322nd in defensive turnover percentage while not being particularly good in field goal defense (43.2% is good but not great). If American doesn’t commit unforced turnovers and they knock down a good percentage of their 3-point shots (they shoot 38.2% from long range and Wisconsin is just average in 3-point defense) then the Eagles could soar to an upset win. However, Wisconsin applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that certainly had me interested in siding with them despite the good match up for American. However, my ratings only favor the Badgers by 12 ½ points (and 123 total points) so the line value also favors the Eagles. While the match up and line value favor American the situation favors Wisconsin, which makes this a good game to pass on unless the line comes down. But, I’ll lean with Wisconsin at -13 ½ or less.

Texas (-2) vs Arizona State

06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
Texas is perhaps the worst shooting team of any at large entry into this tournament, as the Longhorns have made just 43.1% of their shots and only 32.4% from 3-point range this season. Fortunately, the Longhorns rebound 39.4% of their missed shots, which ranks 6th in the nation. Aside from offensive rebounding the Longhorns excel in defending the rim, as they rank 7th in blocked shot percentage and 15th in defending 2-point shots. However, having a great interior defense is relatively less important against a good 3-point shooting team like Arizona State, who knocks down 38.6% from beyond the arc. ASU, however, is not a good rebounding team, so the Longhorns should control the glass and the Sun Devils were relatively worse this season against better teams. That has been taken into account, however, as my tournament ratings, which put more weight on games against better teams and diminish the affect of blowouts against lesser teams, favors Texas by only 1 point (with 144 ½ total points). There are a few conflicting situations that apply to this game that slightly favor the Longhorns so this game is best left alone, although I will lean towards the Over 142 points or less.

Michigan (-16) vs Wofford

04:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 732
The Southern Conference is a horrible, as only regular season champion Davidson ranks in the top half of my Division 1 rankings. Wofford hasn’t beaten a team ranked in the top 200 in the nation and they lost their 5 games to teams ranked in the top 100 by an average of 18.4 points. Wofford is actually a decent defensive team but their compensated offensive efficiency is horrible and they’ll have to make a lot of 3-pointers (they shoot a better than average 35.9% from beyond the arc) to stay close. However, facing another slow tempo team like Michigan will help keep this game close because there will be fewer possessions for the Wolverines to stretch out the lead. In this case, the difference in tempo from an average game is worth 1.7 points but my ratings still favor Michigan by 16 points in this game (with a total of 126 points). The Wolverines apply to a 30-7-3 ATS first round situation and I’ll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion at -16 or less and a lean at -16 ½.

Harvard (+3) over Cincinnati

11:10 AM Pacific Rotation: 733
Harvard upset #3 seeded New Mexico in the first round last season as a 14th seed and this year’s Crimson are ranked a bit higher in my ratings. Harvard is a well balanced team that is good on both sides of the ball. Last year the Crimson had a perfect draw against a New Mexico team that ranked 215th in the nation in 3-point defense. Cincinnati defends well all over the court and their 31.9% 3-point defense should keep Harvard from going nuts from the outside. However, Harvard is a good defensive team (30th in compensated points per possession allowed) and Cincinnati can struggle offensively because of their bad shooting (243rd in effective field goal percentage). I think Harvard is a bit underrated and my ratings favor the Bearcats by just ½ a point. I’ll lean with Harvard at +2 points or higher and I have no opinion on the total (I project 123 ½ points, which is too close to the actual line).

Delaware (+14) over Michigan State

01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 735
Delaware is no pushover, as the Blue Hens have a guard oriented team that doesn’t make mistakes (4th in the nation in fewest offensive turnovers per possession) and have 3 players averaging 18 points per game or more (all guards). Delaware has faced two NCAA caliber teams in Villanova and Ohio State and they lost those two games on the road by an average of just 8 points, so don’t be surprised if the Hens are competitive against the Spartans. Delaware struggled a bit near the end of their conference season but that was partially due to the absence of point guard Jarvis Threatt (18.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 2.6 steals per game) and big man Marvin King-Davis (first big man off the bench), who were both suspended for 9 games. Delaware has won 12 games in a row with Threatt running the show, so they’re a bit underrated. Michigan State had some key injuries this season too (4 starters missed a total of 23 games) and the Spartans were 12-5 when at least one of the starters was out and 14-3 in games with all 5 starters playing (losses to North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio State). Michigan State’s rating in those 17 games with all 5 starters playing is a couple of points better than their overall rating and would put them at #6 in my ratings. The adjustment seems to have been made for each team’s current form, as my ratings favor Michigan State by 13.7 points (with a total of 158 points) even after taking into account the high number of possessions that are likely in this game. The reason I like Delaware is a 41-105-3 ATS NCAA Tournament situation that applies to Michigan State and it certainly would be reasonable for the Spartans to relax against a lesser opponent after sweeping through the Big 10 tournament and beating rival Michigan to win the Championship. Delaware has proven that they can be competitive against very good teams but I’m still hesitant to pull the trigger on this game as a Best Bet. However, I’ll consider Delaware a Strong Opinion at +13 or more and I’ll lean with the Over.

North Dakota State (+3 ½) over Oklahoma

04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 737
North Dakota State is a pretty good team with a future NBA player in Taylor Braun, a well-rounded player that shoots well (49% overall and 44% from 3-point range) and led his team in not only scoring (18.2 ppg) but rebounding, assists and steals. The offensively efficient Bison (20th in the nation in compensated offensive points per possession and 4th in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage) should be able to score the basketball but they’ll have trouble defending a good offensive team the Oklahoma, whose habit of taking and making 3-point shots (37.9%) works well against a Bison squad that ranks 309th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (37.5% allowed). North Dakota State’s most impressive win was at Notre Dame, which really isn’t that impressive, and the Bison were 0-3 against teams better than the Irish – losing by 13 at St. Mary’s and at home to Southern Miss (two teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament) while losing by 17 at Ohio State, the only NCAA Tournament caliber team that they faced. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 4.2 points (with a total of 153 points) and the favorable matchup for Oklahoma is more than negated by a 43-11-1 ATS situation that favors NDSU and an 11-30 ATS situation that applies to Oklahoma that is based on their early exit from the Big 12 tournament (a loss to Baylor in their first tournament game. I’ll lean with North Dakota State plus the points and I’ll lean Over the 150 ½ point total.

San Diego State (-7) vs New Mexico State

06:57 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
I was hoping the line on this game would be lower because I have a lot of good first round situations that favor San Diego State. The Aztecs apply to a 61-17-2 ATS situation and a 40-11-2 ATS situation and the record is 6-1 ATS when both angles apply to the same game. Unfortunately, I think the line is too high. The match up really doesn’t favor either team in the half court, as both teams rely heavily on their inside game and both teams defend the interior very well. New Mexico State did win by 6 points on the road against a New Mexico team with very similar characteristics to the Aztecs but they also lost by 9 at home to the Lobos while losing by 12 at Gonzaga and by 26 points at Arizona. San Diego State also lost to New Mexico. In fact, two of the Aztecs’ 4 losses were to New Mexico, whose great interior defense (4th in the nation in 2-point percentage allowed) matches up well against San Diego State. New Mexico State defends the rim well too with the tallest team in the nation. The Aggies have 7’5 Sim Bhullar swatting 3.4 shots per game and the Aggies have two 6’10 players that also defend well. Bhullare missed a stretch of games in the middle of the season and the Aggies weren’t as good without him, so they’re a bit underrated. My ratings only favor the Aztecs by 5.7 points (with a total of 127 ½ points) the situations favoring San Diego State are so good that I’ll lean with San Diego State at -7 or less.

***Pittsburgh (-6) over Colorado

10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 719
Neither of these teams was as good in the second half of the season, as Pitt struggled after 6th man Durand Johnson was lost for the season after 16 games and Colorado really fell off after star Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season to injury early in their January 12th game at Washington. The Buffs were 14-2 and deserving of being highly ranked at the time but they’re just 9-9 since with their best win coming against Stanford. Most of Colorado’s wins without Dinwiddie were against teams that failed to make the NCAA Tournament and the Buffs really struggled against superior teams without Dinwiddie – losing by an average of 18 points in 5 games against UCLA and Arizona. Pitt is not quite UCLA and Arizona but the Panthers are better than the rest of the teams in Pac-12 and my ratings favor Pitt by 6.7 points in this game (with a total of 124 ½ points). The line value isn’t that significant but I like the match up of Pitt’s good interior defense against a Colorado team that can’t make outside shots (just 30.8% on 3-pointers as a team without Dinwiddie’s 41%). I also like that Pitt applies to a 63-16 ATS first round situation and the Panthers generally beat the teams that they’re supposed to beat. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-8 against teams that are ranked in my top 40 and 24-1 straight against everyone else. If the win straight up they are likely to cover too and I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany

01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.

***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer

09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.

**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin

04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).

Virginia (-21 ½) vs Coastal Carolina

06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 826
Coastal Carolina is pretty good defensively but they rank near the bottom of the nation in compensated offensive points per possession, which is the case due to a combination of bad shooting and sloppy play (297th in offensive turnover percentage). Coastal Carolina played two borderline NCAA Tournament caliber teams with mixed results – a respectable 10 point loss at Minnesota and a 29 point loss at Clemson. While I don’t expect much scoring from the Chanticleers their defense is good enough to stay within a big number in what should be a very low scoring game. My ratings favor Virginia by just 20 ½ points (with a total of 117 ½ points) but #1 seeds favored by 24 points or less are 16-5 ATS, so I’ll pass on this game.

George Washington (+3) over Memphis

03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 827
These teams are very similar in their overall rating and very similar in their statistical characteristics with Memphis being a little better offensively and George Washington being a little better defensively. Both teams prefer to attack the rim and both teams are relatively worse defending the interior than they are defending the 3-point line. So, I expect both teams to have pretty good success offensively. My ratings favor Memphis by just 1 point and GW could get a boost if #2 scorer and top defender Kethan Savage can play some quality minutes. Savage missed 13 games and came back to play just 1 minute in their Atlantic 10 conference loss to VCU. But, Savage may be ready to contribute more, which would be a bonus considering his efficient shooting (52% FG) and great defense (1.9 steals per game). My ratings like the Colonials even if Savage doesn’t play at all (I get Memphis by 1 ½ points in that case) and if Savage is 100% and playing his normal 27 minutes per game then I’d favor GW by ½ a point. I’ll lean with George Washington plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I get 143.5 points but that number would be lower if Savage and his good defense return to the rotation).

Stanford (+3) over New Mexico

10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 829
New Lobos’ coach Craig Neal was an assistant under former head coach Steve Alford and this year’s New Mexico team is very similar to last year’s #3 seeded squad that got ousted in the first round by Harvard. I picked Harvard to win that game because the Crimson could take advantage of New Mexico’s bad 3-point shooting defense and wouldn’t be stupid enough to try to challenge the Lobos inside (they were 9th in 2-point defense last year). This year’s team is 4th in the nation is 2-point defense (41.4% allowed) but they are just average defending the 3-point arc (34.4%) and don’t force turnovers (341st in defensive turnover percentage). New Mexico was able to beat #4 seed San Diego State twice because the Aztecs are a bad shooting team that couldn’t take advantage of the Lobos’ defensive weakness, which is also the reason they were able to beat Cincinnati, who ranks 207th in 3-point shooting. However, Stanford can shoot the ball (37.1% 3-pointers) but the Cardinal actually don’t take that many 3-point shots (260th in 3-point shots as a percentage of overall shots). If Johnny Dawkins is smart enough to realize he needs to shoot more 3-pointers then the Cardinal should win this game and my ratings only favor New Mexico by 1 point (with a total of 138 ½ points) without taking the match up into account. I’ll consider Stanford a Strong Opinion at +3 or more and I’d still lean with the Cardinal at less than +3.

Over (148) - Kansas (-14 ½) vs Eastern Kentucky

01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 831
Eastern Kentucky is a highly efficient offensive team that makes 39% of their 3-point shots and ranks 3rd in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage at 56.2%. However, the Colonels are a horrible defensive team that has given up 56.1% on 2-point shots and 36.3% on 3-pointers while also sending opponents to the line a lot. Eastern Kentucky depends on creating turnovers, and they do rank 5th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, but when the Colonels are not creating turnovers then they’ll give up points readily to any offense with a pulse. Teams that can handle the ball and play good defense will destroy the Colonels, as was the case when they visited Wisconsin in mid-December (a 61-86 loss). The Colonels did play well in an overtime loss at VCU, but the Rams are a bad shooting team that can get a bit sloppy with the ball at times (16 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky). Other than those two tournament teams, the next best team the Colonels faced was NC State, a team that takes care of the ball and runs an efficient offense. The result was a 21 point loss for Eastern Kentucky. On the plus side, Eastern Kentucky is 12th in 3-point shots taken percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and Kansas ranks 256th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (35.9% allowed). The Jayhawks are also turnover prone, ranking 232nd in offensive turnover percentage. Without injured shot blocker Joel Embiid (2.6 blocks per game) the Jayhawks are now more vulnerable inside and Eastern Kentucky’s efficient offense should have success. The Jayhawks will score at will though but relatively the matchup works for the Colonels and my ratings favor Kansas by 14.3 points with Embiid out. Unfortunately, Kansas applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that will force me to stay away from the side in this game. However, my math projects 154 total points with Embiid out and the Jayhawks have gone Over the total in 4 of the 5 games their defensive star has missed this season. I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 150 or lower and I’ll lean with Kansas at -15 or less based on the favorable situation.

Kansas State (+5) over Kentucky

06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 835
Kentucky’s good play in the SEC Tournament (3 spread wins), combined with the poor recent play of Kansas State (0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS) has skewed this line some, as my ratings favor Kentucky by just 3 ½ points. While it’s certainly possible that Kentucky is suddenly a better and more consistent team, we shouldn’t forget that the Wildcats had lost 5 straight to the spread before the SEC Tournament and that two of their good performances were against teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament field. The other, a 1 point loss to Florida, was close because Florida couldn’t make their free throws (7 for 17) to close out a game that they led comfortably most of way. Kentucky will no doubt dominate on the boards in this game but that is already factored in to the line. Kentucky is still just 3-8 against teams in my top-50 while Kansas State is 7-8 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams. I’ll lean with Kansas State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I project 132 ½ points).

Nebraska (+3 ½) over Baylor

09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 837
The Huskers won 10 of their last 13 games and beat Ohio State, Michigan State (on the road), and Wisconsin and the reason for the sudden turnaround after a mediocre start to the season was an injury to ineffective point guard Deverll Biggs. Biggs only shot 43% from the floor and averaged 2.3 turnovers against just 1.5 assists per game. Biggs’ injury had resulted in fewer mistakes, as the Cornhuskers had a turnover margin of -1.4 per game before Biggs’ injury and they’re +1.3 in turnovers without Biggs. The defense has also improved, as Nebraska has allowed just 39.4% shooting without Biggs compared to 43.8% FG allowed with him. It might be tough to get past Baylor because the Huskers aren’t likely to take advantage of Baylor’s bad 3-point defense (280th in the nation) or keep the Bears off the offensive glass but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game straight up and Baylor’s overall defense is not that good (114th in compensated points per possession). The value is certainly with the underrated Cornhuskers and I’ll lean with Nebraska plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (my math projects 130 total points).

Creighton (-13 ½) over Louisiana Lafayette

12:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 840
Louisiana Lafayette has a really good player in Elfrid Payton, who averages 19.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game while making 51% of his shots, which is incredibly good for a point guard. Payton team with 6’9 forward Shawn Long (18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game) to give the Ragin’ Cajuns two really good and diverse players to deal with. UL Lafayette was able to beat marginally good teams Louisiana Tech and Georgia State but they were beaten soundly by better teams – losing to Arkansas by 13 points, to Baylor by 19 points and to Louisville by 39 points. Lafayette will be able to score against Creighton but they won’t be able to stop the Bluejays #1 ranked offense from outscoring them – most likely by a comfortable margin. My ratings favor Creighton by 13 points, so the line is about right, and the Blue Jays apply to a 64-19-2 ATS first round situation while Lafayette applies to a negative 13-38-6 ATS first round letdown situation based on their upset win in their conference tournament final. I don’t want to give up any line value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll consider Creighton a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less. I’ll also lean with the Over (154 ½), as my predicted total is 160 points.

North Carolina (-4) over Providence

04:20 PM Pacific Rotation: 842
Providence made a surprising run to win the Big East Tournament and take themselves off the bubble. The Friars actually beat Creighton twice this season as the nation’s #1 3-point shooting team (42.2%) made only 24.5% (12 for 49) from beyond the arc in the two losses to the Friars. Providence is going to need more good fortune to advance in this tournament, as they simply aren’t good enough to beat a good team without some 3-point shooting variance going their way (they were 1-5 against the other NCAA caliber teams that they faced). North Carolina struggled through the first half of the season at 11-7 and then got red hot starting in late January and ran off 12 consecutive wins before losing their final two games to Duke and Pitt. The Heels’ hot streak was largely a case of 3-point shooting variance, as UNC made 38% of their 3-point shots during their 12 game winning streak while making only 33.5% from beyond the arc for the season. North Carolina is actually a relatively bad shooting team, as they rank 208th in 3-point shooting and 122nd in 2-point shooting percentage. However, the Heels rebound a lot of their misses (18th in offensive rebound percentage) and they were actually relatively much better offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. North Carolina’s victories against high seeded teams were against teams that aren’t particularly good defensive rebounding teams, as they were able to beat Louisville (246nd in defensive rebound percentage), Kentucky (105th), and split two games with Duke (191st) while getting crushed by Virginia, who ranks 8th in the nation in defensive rebounding. Providence is a decent defensive rebounding team, ranking 99th in the nation, and my ratings suggest that the line is fair (I get UNC by 4.2 points) but the Friars apply to a negative 13-38 ATS first round situation and I’ll lean with North Carolina at -4 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (the math projects 142 total points).

NC Central (+8 ½) over Iowa State

06:50 PM Pacific Rotation: 843
Iowa State started the season beating the crap out of bad teams then struggled against better competition at the beginning of the Big 12 season. However, the Cyclones certainly have played better recently and just won the Big 12 Tournament with wins over NCAA Tournament teams Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor. However, those wins set up Iowa State in a negative 17-52-2 ATS first round situation that has me looking at NC Central. NC Central has won 20 consecutive games and did win at NC State early in the season but they also lost to Cincinnati, Wichita State, and Maryland by an average of 13 points. The Eagles actually are a pretty good team that I rank as the 80th best team in the nation and they can beat a team that doesn’t defend particularly well because their good defense should enable them to compete if they can score near the rim (NC Central is a horrible 3-point shooting team). NC Central also depends on turnovers to win (#5 in the nation in opponent’s turnover percentage) but 1st round opponent Iowa State is #9 in the nation in lowest offensive turnover percentage and is pretty good defending the paint, which is a bad match up for the Eagles. My ratings favor Iowa State by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and the situation certainly favors the dog here. I’m not going to play this as a Best Bet but I’ll lean with NC Central at +8 points or more. My math projects 145 total points, which isn’t much of an edge.

Tulsa (+8 ½) over UCLA

06:57 PM Pacific Rotation: 847
Tulsa won their final 11 games and the Golden Hurricane really picked up their defensive intensity during their late season run and ended the season 14th in the nation in 2-point defense at 42.9% allowed on shots inside the arc. That could be trouble for a UCLA team that takes most of their shots inside the 3-point arc and the Bruins aren’t defensively good enough to completely shut down a mediocre Tulsa offense. If UCLA spends too much time basking in the glow of their Pac 12 Championship win over Arizona the Bruins could find themselves subject to a rude awakening, as my ratings based on current personnel favor UCLA by just 5 ½ points against at UTEP team that is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games (and 17-3 ATS in their last 20). I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at +8 points or more. My math projects 146 total points.

Arizona (-20) over Weber State

11:10 AM Pacific Rotation: 850
Weber State was the best team in a really down year for the Big Sky Conference and the Wildcats did not beat a team this season that was ranked inside my top 200. Their 4 games against teams ranked in my top 150 were not very good collectively, losing by an average of 15 points to BYU, Colorado State, Utah State and UCLA (by 23 points) and their average game rating in those 4 games was 4 points lower than their overall game rating – which is not a good omen for them against #1 seeded Arizona. The Wildcats dominated mediocre teams this season, as they were relatively better offensively against worse defensive teams while sometimes struggling offensively against the better defensive teams in the Pac 12. Weber is not a good defensive, as they rank 214th in my compensated defensive ratings. Arizona will have no trouble scoring and their defense is always intense, even against weaker teams. My ratings favor Arizona by 21 points and the Wildcats apply to a 30-7-3 ATS first round situation. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at -20 points or less and I’d take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.

Gonzaga (+2) over Oklahoma State

01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 852
Gonzaga entered last year’s tournament as #1 in the polls and with a #1 seed but were knocked out in the second round by a vastly underrated Wichita State team that made it to the Final Four and are a #1 seed this season. That was just a bad luck draw for Gonzaga and the Zags other recent early tournament exits were all to better teams. This year’s Zags aren’t getting the love that that they used to get but they’re another solid squad that could very easily find themselves in the Sweet 16 thanks to a combination of very good defense (14th in compensated points per possession allowed) and good shooting (14th in 2-point FG% and 24th in 3-point percentage). Gonzaga didn’t play any elite teams this season, so it’s tough to know who they’d do against a very good team but the Zags’ defensive efficiency is relatively much better against better offensive teams, which could lead to an upset if that trend continues.

Oklahoma State is the best of the teams with double-digit losses, as the 21-12 Cowboys have the talent of a top-10 team and started to play like it when star Marcus Smart returned from a 3 game suspension that capped off a 7 game losing streak. Six of those seven losses were to NCAA Tournament teams with 3 of them by 3 points or less or in overtime and the Cowboys won 5 of 7 games after Smart’s return to the lineup with both losses coming in overtime to good teams Iowa State and Kansas (they also beat Kansas 72-65). Oklahoma State is still just 4-8 against NCAA caliber teams with Smart in the lineup (0-3 without him) and they’ve been consistently worse on a relative basis against better teams under coach Ford. My ratings counting all games equally, with Smart playing, would favor Oklahoma State by 3 points but my NCAA Tournament ratings, which put more weight on performance against better teams and diminish the affect of blowout wins over lesser teams, favors the Cowboys by just 0.7 points (using only games with Smart playing). Oklahoma State applies to a negative 11-30 ATS first round situation that is based on their early exit from their conference tournament (not a good omen historically) and I’ll lean with Gonzaga as an underdog. I have no opinion on the total as my math projects 138 total points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

Ohio St -6

Syracuse -12.5

Connecticut -4.5

Cincinnati -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Falco

Michigan
Harvard
Over Louisville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

*CBB Game of the Week*
Harvard

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

Oregon -5.0 (-110) Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu).com vs 725 Brigham Young
Analysis: "One & Only CBB GOY" (4*) on OREGON DUCKS -5


Note: Just like all of our RARE Game of the Year wagers, we are simply playing this a (4*) size wager, which is "double" what our normal sized "Top Plays" are. Please wager with in your means as this is just one game in the end.


Note: I have Oregon winning this game by 10 points and would play for a (4*) Wager up to -6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

*CBB Game of the Week*
Harvard
2* North Dakota ST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

St Joseph's by 6 over Connecticut
San Diego State by 17 over New Mexico State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Tiny Panthers face 'tall' task
By BRIAN COVERT

The Round of 64 gets underway in the East Regional Thursday. We look at the biggest betting news and notes coming out of that side of the bracket.

No. 12 Harvard Crimson vs. No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats (-3, 121.5)

In games against Top-75 opponents this season, Harvard took 32.6 percent of its shots from behind the 3-point arc (versus 28.2 against all other opponents) hitting 40 percent. In their first-round upset of New Mexico last year, Harvard took 42.6 percent of its shots from downtown, hitting 44.4 percent of those attempts.

No. 13 Delaware Blue Hens vs. No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (-14, 153)

Michigan State won its Big Ten tournament games by at least eight points. Since 1985, 19 of 51 major tournament champions who won all their conference tournament games by at least seven points have made the Final Four. The Spartans are +160 favorites to win the East Regional.

No. 10 St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. No. 7 UConn Huskies (-4.5, 131.5)

The Huskies have only four seniors and three juniors on their team, which means UConn has seven players, along with head coach Kevin Ollie just two years into his tenure, who have never played in an NCAA tournament.

"It's been a while," star guard Shabazz Napier told reporters "Guys were asking me how to react, and I didn't know. It's been two years since I've experienced this."

No. 15 Milwaukee-Wisconsin Panthers vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-16.5, 140)

The Panthers face a tall task in No. 2 Villanova, with only two starters over 6-foot-2 and no forwards over 6-foot-9 that play any significant minutes. The Wildcats' starting backcourt has two guards at 6-foot-6 and a forward corps that tops out at 6-foot-11.

"We have to go in there and not back down,” 6-foot-8 forward Matt Tiby told reporters. “We're ready for that competition. We have to go in with the mindset that we're not going to back down."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: West region Day 1

(15) American Eagles vs. (2) Wisconsin Badgers (-13.5, 121.5)

American center Tony Wroblicky (12.2 points, 7.3 rebounds) was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year and had 61 blocked shots and the supporting cast includes guards Jesse Reed (13.9), Darius Gardner (11.5 points, 4.2 assists) and John Schoof (11.4 points, team-best 68 3-pointers). American finished strong with five victories in its last six games.

The Badgers have a battled-tested starting five and the attack was bolstered by the emergence of freshman forward Nigel Hayes (eight points per game) as the Big Ten’s Sixth Man of the Year. Wisconsin can shoot from outside (7.8 3-pointers per game) and six players have more than 20 steals on the defensive end.

TRENDS:

* American is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four games overall.

(10) Brigham Young Cougars vs. (7) Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 158)

The Cougars, who are third in the country in scoring (84.2), will be without sophomore point guard Kyle Collinsworth, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee against Gonzaga. Brigham Young likely will rely more on junior guard Tyler Haws, who averages a team-high 23.4 points and scored a game-high 32 against Oregon.

The Ducks rank 11th in the country in scoring (81.8 points per game). Three players are averaging double figures in scoring - redshirt junior guard Joseph Young (18.6), redshirt senior forward Mike Moser (13.5) and redshirt senior guard Jason Calliste (12.4), who has started only one game but played in all 32 this season. The 6-foot-8, 211-pound Moser leads Oregon in rebounding (eight per game).

TRENDS:

* BYU is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
* Oregon is 5-1-1 AS in its last seven games overall.
* Over is 11-1 in Oregon's last 12 non-conference games.

(12) North Dakota State Bison vs. (5) Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 150.5)

The Bison were the top seed in the Summit League tournament but barely squeaked past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne 60-57 in the title game on Taylor Braun's three-point play with 12 seconds left. Braun, a senior guard, is the team's leading scorer at 18.2 points and is shooting 13-of-21 from 3-point range over his last six games.

The Sooners are talented and balanced, with four players averaging double figures - all of whom shoot at least 75 percent from the foul line and 35 percent from 3-point range. Sophomore guard Buddy Hield leads the way at 16.8 points, including a team-high 89 3-pointers. The X-factor for Oklahoma could be sophomore forward Ryan Spangler, who averages 9.8 points and 9.4 boards but has gone six straight games without a double-double.

TRENDS:

* North Dakota State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games.
* Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in North Dakota State's last 10 games overall.

(13) New Mexico State Aggies vs. (4) San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5, 128)

The Aggies have been bounced in the first round of the tournament in each of the last two seasons and managed only 44 points in a loss to Saint Louis in 2013. New Mexico State has not scored fewer than 61 points in any of its last 23 games and was only once held under 60 this season - a 74-48 setback at No. 1 seed Arizona on Dec. 11.

The Aztecs have enjoyed plenty of regular-season success under Fisher but only once advanced out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, suffering a Sweet Sixteen loss to Connecticut in 2011. San Diego State has not allowed an opponent to reach 70 points since Jan. 12 but did not have quite enough offensively to sneak past New Mexico in a 64-58 loss in the Mountain West championship game.

TRENDS:

* New Mexico State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. the Mountain West Conference.
* San Diego State 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in San Diego State's last five non-conference games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: Midwest Region Day 1

(12) North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. (5) Saint Louis Billikens (-3, 131.5)

T.J. Warren, the ACC Player of the Year, posted his 18th consecutive 20-point game (and school-record 30th overall) to increase his season total to 843, surpassing the previous single-season school-record mark held by David Thompson (838). The Wolfpack have never faced the Billikens, but enter Thursday’s contest with wins in five of their last six contests.

Following early-season losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State, Saint Louis ripped off a school-record 19-game winning streak. The Billikens started to spring leaks thereafter, most notably on defense, as they wrapped up the season losing four of five. Four of the nine times Saint Louis surrendered at least 67 points came over the final five contests, all of which resulted in losses.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Billikens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in Wolfpack last 10 overall.


(13) Manhattan Jaspers vs. (4) Louisville Cardinals (-16, 142.5)

The Jaspers punched their ticket to the dance by upsetting top-seeded Iona 71-68 in the MAAC final March 10 to earn its first NCAA berth since 2004. Manhattan, a No. 13 seed, ranks second in the nation in wins on the road or neutral courts with 16.

The Cardinals dominated the American Athletic Conference tournament winning the three games by a combined 110 points. They shook off a bit of turmoil during the season with the dismissal of forward Chane Behanan but they are rolling now and got a career-high 42 points from standout guard Russ Smith in its 94-65 AAC semifinal win over Houston. Louisville trailed in the tournament for less than a minute and defeated Connecticut 71-61 to win the inaugural conference title.

TRENDS:

* Jaspers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last six NCAA Tournament games.


(10) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. (7) Texas Longhorns (-1.5, 142)

Arizona State secured a berth to its first NCAA tournament since 2009 despite losing three games in a row. The 10th-seeded Sun Devils finished 10-8 in the Pac 12, but dropped four of their last six regular season games before being ousted in the semifinals of the conference tournament by Stanford. It's not all doom and gloom for Arizona State, which is one of only four teams to beat Arizona this season after a 69-66 double-overtime win over its fierce rival Feb. 14 that helped strengthen its claim to be included in the field of 68.

Jonathan Holmes tops the Longhorns in scoring at 13 points per game but was held to just six points on 3-of-12 shooting in the loss to Baylor. Isaiah Taylor leads the Longhorns in assists (3.9) and has dished out five or more in seven of his last 10 outings and has finished in double figures in scoring on 24 occasions this season. Texas is ranked fourth nationally in rebounding and is led by Cameron Ridley (8.1), who has notched nine double-doubles, including three in his last six games.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 9-2 in Longhorns last 11 neutral site games.


(15) Wofford Terriers vs. (2) Michigan Wolverines (-16, 127.5)

The Terriers rely on strong defense, allowing a Southern Conference best 62.4 points per game just one year after posting the second-best defensive scoring mark (59.1) in conference history. Junior guard Karl Cochran leads the team in scoring (15.7) and assists (three), and ranked second in the Southern Conference in steals (1.7) while earning first team all-Southern Conference honors.

The Wolverines are making their fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance and fifth under coach John Beilein. The No. 2 seed is the highest for Michigan since the Fab Five-led Wolverines received a No. 1 seed in 1993 and eventually lost to North Carolina in the national title game in New Orleans. Nik Stauskas has led Michigan in scoring 20 times this season and scored in double-figures in 11 consecutive games.

TRENDS:

* Terriers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Wolverines last 26 neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: East Region Day 1

(12) Harvard Crimson vs. (5) Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5, 121.5)

Following last year's upset of New Mexico in the first round, the Crimson are considered veteran Cinderellas of the tournament. Harvard isn't a high-percentage shooting team, but it hits the offensive glass (10.6 per game) and works as a team to get good shots.

The Bearcats love to win, and to do more of that they're going to need to bring their defensive intensity. Cincinnati has been good this season when it feeds off its defense, so coach Mick Cronin needs to get his team to ratchet it up on that end of the floor for the next couple weeks.

TRENDS:

* Crimson are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Under is 8-1 in Bearcats last nine neutral site games.


(4) Michigan State Spartans vs. (13) Delaware Blue Hens (-14, 150.5)

The Spartans rolled to the Big Ten tournament title and are in a groove with the return of three starters - Adreian Payne, Keith Appling and Branden Dawson - from injury. The Spartans recovered from a late-season defensive slump and is holding opponents to 40 percent shooting and 65.3 points, allowing just 60.3 points in three games at the Big Ten tournament.

The Blue Hens won the Colonial regular-season and tournament titles for the first time and are in the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years. Devon Saddler (19.7 points) ranks third on the Division I active career scoring list (2,201 points) while Davon Usher and Jarvis Threatt add 19.4 and 18.1 points, respectively.

TRENDS:

* Blue Hens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 12-3 in Blue Hens last 15 non-conference games.


(10) St. Joseph's Hawks vs. (7) UConn Huskies (-4.5, 131.5)

The Hawks upset Virginia Commonwealth in the conference title game 65-61, and have won nine of their past 11 contests entering their first NCAA tournament since 2008. They are the top-shooting team in the Atlantic 10, hitting 46.8 percent from the field.

The Huskies are 9-3 in their past 12 games and own several signature victories, including beating No. 1 overall seed Florida in December and defeating Memphis and Cincinnati on consecutive days in the conference tournament. Connecticut, which lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament, in 2012, won the 2011 national title and reached the Final Four in 2009.

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-1 in Huskies last nine non-conference games.


(15) Wis.-Milwaukee Panthers vs. (2) Villanova Wildcats (-16.5, 140)

Wisconsin-Milwaukee isn’t considered a great team by many, but the Panthers boast an impressive resume after winning five straight, including four games in eight days at the Horizon League tournament. The Panthers were just 7-9 in league play during the regular season, but they peaked at the right time and won the conference tournament as the fifth seed.

The Wildcats won the Big East regular-season title and set a school record with 28 regular-season victories, and they had the league’s second-most efficient defense while allowing an average of 66.6 points. Senior guard James Bell received All-Big East first-team honors after averaging a team-high 14.5 points along with 6.1 rebounds for the Wildcats, who attempted 44.6 percent of their field goals from 3-point range.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last five NCAA Tournament games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: South Region Day 1

(11) Dayton Flyers vs. (6) Ohio State Buckeyes (-6, 131.5)

The Flyers boast a deep and balanced scoring attack led by junior guard Jordan Sibert, (12.5 points) who is averaging 14.6 points over his last five games while shooting 59 percent from the floor. Devin Oliver (12.1) and Dyshawn Pierre (11.1) are the other double-digit scorers while Vee Sanford - who had 23 points on a remarkable 9-of-9 shooting effort in a win over Fordham in the first round of the A-10 tourney - comes in at 9.9.

This marks the last tournament run for Buckeyes seniors Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr., two players who are no strangers to March pressure. Craft averaged 10.4 points, 5.2 assists and 3.2 steals as a sophomore in Ohio State's 2012 Final Four run while Smith clocked in with three double-digit scoring efforts, and both were factors en route to the Elite Eight in 2013.

TRENDS:

* Dayton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.
* Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Dayton's last five games overall


(9) Pittsburgh Panthers vs. (8) Colorado Buffaloes (+5.5, 128.5)

Pittsburgh, in its first season in the ACC after spending 31 years in the Big East, stumbled down the stretch with six losses in its last 10 regular-season games, but regrouped to win two games in the conference tournament before falling to eventual champion Virginia in the semifinals. Senior forwrd Talib Zanna has been a wrecking ball on the backboards down the stretch, collecting at least 14 rebounds in four of the last 10 games and putting up a monster 19-point, 21-rebound effort in the ACC quarterfinals.

It's no surprise that offense has been the biggest issue for the Buffaloes since a knee injury KO'd leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie and his 14.7-point per game. Colorado failed to surpass 65 points in its last eight games and was limited to an average of 53.7 points in its three Pac-12 tourney games, including 43 against Arizona.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Colorado's last six games overall.


(14) Western Michigan Broncos vs. (3) Syracuse Orange (-13, 128)

The Broncos lost five of nine games in December and early January, but are 14-2 since and shot a blistering 67.9 percent from the field in the second half of the MAC title game. Conference player of the year David Brown led the MAC in scoring at 19.4 and won tournament MVP honors after scoring 48 points in the Broncos’ two victories.

Syracuse brings the ninth-stingiest scoring defense (59.5 points per game) into the tournament but has struggled on offense down the stretch, shooting 40 percent or lower seven times in its past eight contests. Leading scorer C.J. Fair finished with just nine points in a 66-63 loss to North Carolina State in Friday’s ACC quarterfinals.

TRENDS:

* Western Michigan is are 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
* Syracuse is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Syracuse's last four games overall.


(16) Albany Great Danes vs. (1) Florida Gators (OFF)

TRENDS:

* Albany is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.
* Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Albany's last seven non-conference games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: American U perfect ATS
By COLIN KELLY

The Round of 64 gets underway in the West Regional Thursday. We look at the biggest betting news and notes coming out of that side of the bracket.

No. 15 American U. Eagles vs. No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (-13.5, 121.5)

The Badgers (26-7 SU, 17-16 ATS), in a virtual home game in Milwaukee, are 13.5-point favorites against No. 15 seed American (20-12 SU). The Eagles have had only four lined games all season, but cashed in all four, including a 3-0 SU and ATS run through the Patriot League Tournament.

No. 10 BYU Cougars vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 158)

In the WCC tournament final loss to Gonzaga, BYU lost second-leading scorer Kyle Collinsworth (14 ppg) to a torn ACL. The team says the best way to offset that loss is to make more 3-pointers. The Cougars were just 6 for 33 from beyond the arc (18 percent) in the WCC tournament but went 6 for 16 from distance in an overtime loss to Oregon in December. The Ducks took 32 3-point attempts in that game, knocking down 10.

No. 12 North Dakota State Bison vs. No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 150.5)

Since 1990, a No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed every year except 2000 and 2007. Three times – including last year – three No. 12 seeds knocked off No. 5 seeds. North Dakota State is the 12th seed in the West and is certainly hot enough to pull off the upset, having won nine in a row.

No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5, 128)

The Under has gone 22-7 for SDSU this season, and though half of those Unders came on the Aztecs’ home floor, the total has also gone low in five of their six neutral-site games. That includes three straight Unders in last week’s Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Timberwolves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Wizards won four of their last six road games.
-- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Houston lost three of its last four games.
-- Trailblazers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, covered five of last seven.

Series records
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Bucks won seven of last nine games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.
-- Last five Minnesota-Houston games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington road games went over.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Golden State games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV SPORTSLINE 8-2 Run

Dayton +6.5

Saint Joe's +5.5

NC State +3

Oregon -5

New Mexico St +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Philadelphia won six of its last eight games.
-- Montreal won its last three games, allowing seven goals. Blue Jackets won three of their last four road games.
-- Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 17 goals.
-- Detroit won its last three home games, allowing total of seven goals. Penguins won four of their last six games overall.
-- Edmonton won three of its last four home games.
-- Coyotes won six of their last eight games.
-- Washington won its last three games, allowing seven goals.
-- Sharks won six of their last seven games.


Cold teams
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, outscored 12-5. Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last three games, allowing 16 goals.
-- Senators lost six of their last seven games.
-- Sabres lost last seven games, scoring total of six goals.
-- Panthers lost four of their last six games.
-- Los Angeles lost its last three games, scoring six goals.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Devil games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over total.
-- Four of last five Columbus games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay games went over.
-- 10 of last 13 Pittsburgh-Detroit games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Buffalo games.
-- Over is 19-12-3 in Phoenix home games this season.
-- Five of last seven Washington games stayed under.
-- Under is 19-12-2 in San Jose home games this season.

Series records
-- Wild won its last three games with New Jersey.
-- Flyers won six of their last seven games with Dallas.
-- Canadiens are 2-0 vs Columbus this season: 5-3/3-2so.
-- Lightning won three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Detroit.
-- Sabres won three of last four games with Edmonton.
-- Coyotes won their last three games with Florida.
-- Kings won last two games with Washington, 4-1/5-2.
-- Sharks won four of their last five games with Anaheim.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Metric Sports

Dayton +6.5

Western Michigan +13

St. Joe's +5.5

Oregon -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed picks

Dayton +6
Wisconsin- 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 Units Oklahoma -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

football jesus THUR : he has Ohio state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV Sportsline Friday's Card

Mercer +13

Stanford +3.5

Tulsa +9

Ok State -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with on Louisiana Tech (-8) on Wednesday and likes Harvard on Thursday.

The deficit is 205 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma

The No. 12 seeded Bison come into their game against No. 5 seed Oklahoma with a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 neutral site games. North Dakota State is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Sooners favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4). Here are all of today's games and the first round of the NCAA Tournament.


THURSDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (3/18)


Game 709-710: Dayton vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.934; Ohio State 67.658
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+6); Over


Game 711-712: Western Michigan vs. Syracuse (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.991; Syracuse 70.805
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15; 121
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-12 1/2); Under


Game 713-714: St. Joseph's vs. Connecticut (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 65.307; Connecticut 66.702
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+4 1/2); Under


Game 715-716: WI-Milwaukee vs. Villanova (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 50.016; Villanova 73.492
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 23 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Villanova by 16; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-16); Over


Game 717-718: Albany vs. Florida (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 55.905; Florida 75.847
Dunkel Line: Florida by 20; 118
Vegas Line: Florida by 22; 121
Dunkel Pick: Albany (+22); Under


Game 719-720: Pittsburgh vs. Colorado (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.871; Colorado 61.781
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over


Game 721-722: NC State vs. St. Louis (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 62.964; St. Louis 67.631
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Under


Game 723-724: Manhattan vs. Louisville (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 63.468; Louisville 76.569
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 139
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 143
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+16); Under


Game 725-726: BYU vs. Oregon (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.606; Oregon 71.611
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 162
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over


Game 727-728: American vs. Wisconsin (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: American 52.300; Wisconsin 72.799
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13); Over


Game 729-730: Arizona State vs. Texas (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 67.413; Texas 64.675
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 147
Vegas Line: Texas by 2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2); Over


Game 731-732: Wofford vs. Michigan (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.631; Michigan 68.193
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 126
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+16); Under


Game 733-734: Harvard vs. Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.925; Cincinnati 66.883
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+3); Under


Game 735-736: Delaware vs. Michigan State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.733; Michigan State 68.342
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+14); Under


Game 737-738: North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 66.353; Oklahoma 67.846
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4; 150
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4); Over


Game 739-740: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.174; San Diego State 65.509
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.

There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.

Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.

Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.

Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.

BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.

Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.

Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.

Evening games
UConn won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game vs AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 vs spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.

Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished T3 in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 vs teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 vs spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.

If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread. Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, mkaing just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 vs spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 vs top 100 teams, 19-1 vs everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren.

Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotiation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.

Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 vs spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 vs spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.

Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game vs Big X opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tourney games, with all four losses hy 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big X. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.

Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played vs top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them vs players this good. Defending champ Lousiville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.

New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's golf picks for Arnold Palmer Invitation

RICKIE FOWLER 50 TO 1
IAN POULTER 80 TO 1
JUSTIN ROSE 14.5 TO 1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 38 TO 1
JAMIE DONALDSON 70 TO 1
MARTIN LAIRD 120 TO 1

72 hole head to head
1 UNIT - RICKIE FOWLER (+105) over Will Mackenzie
2 UNIT - IAN POULTER (-110) over Lee Westwood

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

10* St Joes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

10* BYU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin 20* CBB Underdog Demolition

BYU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Godfather

CBB [730] TEXAS -125 100:
CBB [722] SAINT LOUIS -3-110 100:
CBB [713] TOTAL o130-120 (ST. JOSEPHS vrs CONNECTICUT) 100:
CBB [719] PITTSBURGH -5-106 200:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wilton 50*
Over 142.5 Louisville/Manhattan

Craig Davis 50*
St. Joseph's +5.5

DuPont 100*
Over 121 Florida/Albany

Chris Jordan 1000*
Western Michigan +13

Al DeMarco 15*
Louisville -16.5

Matt Rivers 400k*
Michigan St. -14

Benton 50*
Western Michigan +13

Redd 3-40*
Western Michigan +13
Wisconsin-Milwaukee +16.5
Oregon -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1* St. Joseph's +3 - 1st Half
1* NC State +1.5 - 1st Half
1* North Dakota St. +1.5 - 1st Half
1* New Mexico St. +3.5 - 1st Half
1* Harvard +1.5 - 1st Half

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

NCAA
BYU
ARIZONA STATE

no freeloader

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik

Under Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE TOURNAMENT COVERAGE
Thursday, March 20, 2014


NCAA Day games only:


Rated 2: Colorado
Rated 3: Florida
Rated 4: Wisconsin, Harvard
Rated 5: Dayton
Rated 6: BYU, Michigan State, Western Michigan


Top Rating of 1 -- Low Rating of 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

St Louis -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
#711 Western Michigan +13.0 -110 (0.5*)
#715 Wisconsin Milwaukee +16.5 -110 (0.5*)
#721 NC State +3.0 -110 (1*)
#725 BYU +5.0 -110 (0.5*)
#735 Delaware +14.0 (3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner:
1000* CBB Florida -20.5
500* CBB NC State +3
100* CBB Over 129.5 Wofford/Michigan
100* CBB North Dakota State +3.5
50* CBB Wisconsin -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

5* Michigan -16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS

6 Ore
5 NCST
5 SDST
4 ASU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

100 Dimes - North Carolina State Wolfpack +3 1/2 over the St. Louis Billikens, 2:30 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

root

TOP plays are ST LOUIS and COLORADO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KELSO

100 s.d.st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Cincinnati -3 over Harvard (Spread Bet) (NCAA College Basketball) - Game Starts at 2:10 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Washington at Portland

The Wizards head to Portland tonight with an 0-4 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Portland is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST


Game 701-702: Oklahoma City at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.209; Cleveland 117.751
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9 1/2); Under


Game 703-704: Minnesota at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.113; Houston 126.446
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8); Under


Game 705-706: Washington at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.099; Portland 122.673
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4 1/2); Under


Game 707-708: Milwaukee at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.692; Golden State 121.314
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 10 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 14; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+14); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Washington at Los Angeles

The Capitals head to Los Angeles tonight to face a Kings team that is 3-7 in its last 10 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. Washington is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+160). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 1-2: Dallas at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.078; Philadelphia 11.214
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+140); Under


Game 3-4: Minnesota at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.134; New Jersey 11.675
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-130); Over


Game 5-6: Columbus at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.810; Montreal 10.761
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+120); Under


Game 7-8: Tampa Bay at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.666; Ottawa 11.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-110); Over


Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.762; Detroit 11.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under


Game 11-12: Buffalo at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.184; Edmonton 10.221
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+170); Over


Game 13-14: Florida at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.382; Phoenix 11.779
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-200); Under


Game 15-16: Washington at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.785; Los Angeles 10.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+160); Over


Game 17-18: Anaheim at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.625; San Jose 11.553
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+125); Over

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Exclusive Sports

Louisville

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Steve Fezzik

Florida

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Larry Ness' 10* Round of 64 Total G.O.Y. (12-4 L4 years!)

My 10* Rnd of 64 Total G.O.Y. is on St Joe's/UConn Over at 6:55 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

2* Oregon -4.5

1* Colorado +7

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ROOT

pinn--st l
in cir--colo
per play--vill
no lim--byu
bill--ariz st
mill--syr
mill--dela
mill--conn

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence lts:
3* north dakota state
3* delaware

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass
719 Pitt




717 Florida Over
728 Wisconsin Under
735 Delaware
711 W.Mich
734 Cinncy

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 3/20

NCAA College Basketball

North Carolina State +3 over Saint Louis
(Spread Bet)


Overall Record: 231-205


(System Record: 231-11, Lost last game)

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EXECUTIVE


250 conn
250 s.d.st

[golden contender]

Thursday Card has 6* Opening Round System Side + 3 More Big Round 1 Systems Plays, 3 in the afternoon. There is also a 94% NBA Power system Play. Free Tournament Play below.


The Free NCAAB play is on North Dakota St. Game 737 at 7:25 eastern. This may very well be your yearly #12 take down of a 5 seed. North Dakota St is a senior laden team with a tremendous front line that will cause matchup problems for Oklahoma in this game. They have covered 4 of 5 when the total is 150 to 150 and 14 of 18 after scoring 60 or less points last out. In Non conference games they have covered 31 of the last 44. The Sooners have lost the last 2 in the first round and 3 of 4 when the total is 150 to 155. These two are very close in the RPI scale at 26 and 35. For our system we want to play on dogs who won their conference championship but failed to cover as they have been solid spread winners historically in opening round action. Take the points with North Dakota St. On Thursday start the Tournament Big with 4 Round 1 Power system plays one of which is a 6* 28-2 Afternoon Side, there are 3 more Round 1 systems 3 go in the afternoon and the 94% NBA System Play of the day. Message to Jump on now and Get things started of big. For the free play take North Dakota St plus the points. GC

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SPORTS UNLIMITED
5 delaware

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports bank
400 villanova

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Millionaires club
large
north dakota state

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Alatex
superplay
san diego state under

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BANKROLL SPORTS
10* Manhattan Jaspers +16.5 (CBB)
5* Harvard @ Cincinnati Over 121.5 (CBB)
5* Wofford Terriers +15 (CBB)
4* Colorado Buffalos -6.5 (CBB)
3* Wisconsin-Mil @ Villanova Over 140 (CBB)
2* St. Joesph's Hawks +5.5 (CBB)

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Prophet Plays


Colorado

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Toronto Syndicate

5* mlb detroit tigers ml
5* soccer salzburg and valencia ml parlay

1* ncaab dayton +6.5
1* ncaab north dakota state +3.5

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BIG AL ELITE INFO

villanova

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Cooper Wins

Regular Play

Game #1: Harvard @ Cincinnati

Harvard +2.5

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Prediction Machine

Pittsburgh -5.5 (57.6%)
wofford/michigan – Over 126 60.5%)
american/Wisconsin . Over 122.5 (59.1%)
zona st/Texas – Under 141.5 (58.8%)
byu/oregon – Under 158.5 (57.6%)

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Robert Ferringo
Dayton +6.5 (1*)
UConn -5 (2*)
Wisconsin -13.5 (2*)
O128 Syracuse/western Michigan (1*)
Colorado +6.5 (2*)
Nova -16.5 (1*)
Syracuse -12.5 (2*)
Delaware +14.5 (1*)
Texas -2 (1*)
Louisville -16.5 (2*)
O142.5 Louisville/Manhattan (1*)

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The Sheep's Moves




#710 Ohio State -5 1/2 $800
#1728 Under 56 American-Wisconsin $900

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
20* Colo-under 128.5

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Sheeps moves
#722 St Louis -2 (-120) $1000** We laid -2 1/2 & ML -170

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VR

He put these out after the first game started.

NCAA TOURNAMENT = TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

1.) ARIZONA +850....(5*)

2.) VIRGINIA +1600....(5*)

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Ben Burns
NCB - *- Ohio St-6/Dayton
NCB - *- Wisconsin-13/American U
NCB - *- Cincinnati-2.5/Harvard
NCB - Brigham Young +5.5/Oregon
NCB - Villanova-16/Wisc-Milwaukee

NHL plays
Ottawa-104/Tampa bay
San Jose -140/Anaheim
La kings-175/Washington

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Cappers Finest

A = 1* / B = 2* / C = 3* etc...
TheChamp: NCAAB: [739] New Mexico State +7 (-110) *A*


TheChamp: NCAAB: [735] Delaware +14.5 (-110) *A*


TheChamp: NCAAB: [734] Cincinnati -3 (-110) *A*


TheChamp: NCAAB: [726] Oregon -5 (-110) *A*


TheChamp: NCAAB: [721] NC STATE +3 (-110) *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [713] St. Joseph's @ UCONN OVER 131 -110 *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [720] Colorado +6.5 -110 *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [726] Oregon -5 -110 *A*


Rich: NCAAB: [721] NC State 1h +2 -110 *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [709] Dayton 1h +3.5 -110 *A*


Proft: ncaab{734} Cincinnati -3 *C*


Proft: Ncaab: {722} St Louis -2.5{-110} *C*


Proft: NCAAB : {738} Oklahoma -3.5 (-110} *C*


Proft: Ncaab:{730} Texas ML (-125) *B*


GoldenTickt: NCAAB: [726] Oregon -5.5 -110 *G*




GoldenTickt: NCAA Play [709] Dayton+7 (buying a half pt) -120 for *B*


GoldenTickt: NCAA play [721] NC ST +3.5 -110 for *D*


GoldenTickt: NCAA Play [734] Cincinnati -2.5 (buying half a pt) -120 for *D*


Dimes: NCAA [727] AMERICAN + 14 (-110) B


Dimes: NCAA : [712] SYRACUSE - 13 (-110) B


KingGrimt: Cincinnati -2.5 (-120) A Bought half pt


KingGrimt: Oregon -5 (-110) A


Nugz: NCAAB: Oklahoma North Dakota st under 152.5 -110 *B*


Nugz: NCAAB: American Wisconsin under 121.5 -110 *B*


Nugz: NCAAB: (717) Albany +21.5 -110 A*

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Vegas Sports Informer
NHL
6* philly -135.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheeps moves
#735 Over 151 Del-MichSt $900
#723 Manhattan +17 $1000
#740 Under 128 NmexSt-SDState $1000
#729 Under 142 Asu-Tex $1000
#725 BYU +6 $800

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappersfinest
JRich: NCAAB: [738] N Dakota State @ Oklahoma UNDER 152 -110 *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [711] Western Michigan 1h +7.5 -115 *A*


JRich: NCAAB: [736] Delaware @ Michigan State UNDER 154.5 -110 *B*




JRich: NCAAB: [711] Western Michigan 1h +7.5 -115 A*


Dimes: NCAAB: ALBANY / FLORIDA
UNDER 121 B


Dimes: NCAAB: [739] NEW MEXICO.ST + 7 (-110) *C*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scotty Shiller





2014 MLB Spring Training - 9-0 (+9.8 units) ** let's make it 10-0 today **




Thursday, March 20th, 2014



College Basketball


Albany @ Florida ( 4:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Florida/Albany under 121 (-110)
Rating - (2*)




NC State @ Saint Louis ( 7:20 PM Eastern )
Play - NC State +3.5 (-110)
Rating - (7*)




New Mexico State @ San Diego State ( 9:55 PM Eastern )
Play - San Diego State/New Mexico State under 126 (-110)
Rating - (6*)



NBA



Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets ( 8:05 PM Eastern )
Play - Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
Rating - (3*)




MLB Spring Training



Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals ( 4:05 PM Eastern )
Play - Angels ML (-108)
Rating - (1*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Betting Experts:

735 Mich St / Delaware Under 154 1/2


717 Albany + 21 1/2


714 Conn - 5 1/2


713 Conn Over 132


722 SL - 3 1/2


738 Sooners - 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RKAPPER




18-27 NCAA PLAYS




Ohio State Over 60 First Half
Cinncinati -1.5 FH LARGE
Western Michigan +13
Oregon -5
St Josephs +5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes NBA 33-16 ATS run
single
Wash under 207

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE TOURNAMENT COVERAGE
Thursday, March 20, 2014
NCAA Night Games:


Rated 1: Louisville
Rated 2: San Diego State
Rated 3: North Carolina State
Rated 5: Texas, St Josephs
Rated 6: North Dakota State, Wisc-Milwaukee, Michigan


Top Rating of 1 -- Low Rating of 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

wash -4.5 2*

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Human factor
Manhattan

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Chris James Sports

Villanova -16.5
Louisville - 16
North Dakota St +3.5

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NBA SidesThu, 03/20/14 - 10:05 PM
705*WAS*4.5 (-110) Hilton*vs*706*PORAnalysis:*SPECIAL OFFER*for*60% OFF*Marco D'Angelo's OPENING ROUND SHOCKER*using*COUPON CODE MADNESS60.

22-13-2 LAST 37 DAILY BEST BETS!*Opening Round of the NCAA TOURNAMENT and I have isolated one play that I am betting Big. I love the match up and I love the number Vegas has put on this game because the number reflects public perception rather than the reality of what these 2 teams really are. Join me as we take advantage of what I feel is a miss priced line. Our NIT Game of the Week came up short last night with Vermont so it's bounce back Thursday. Our Daily Best Bet record is 22-13-2 the last 37 Days. That's 63% over a 5 week period and if you go back over the last 95 Days we are 54-36-5 with the Daily Best Bet good for 60% Winners. Since Feb 9th we are 34-26 with all plays for a Profit of 11.70 UNITS. While everyone else will be paying $25.00 for this play you when using COUPON CODE MADNESS60!

ADDED BONUS ON FRIDAY:*Get*Stephen Nover's Friday Best Bet*OR*Weekend All Access*(All Sports) for*50%*off using COUPON CODE NOVER50!

The Wizards are actually quite decent this season. Even without Nene, they have five above average players. They are likely to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008. A huge factor in Washington's resurgence this season is a winning road record. The Wizards are 18-16 SU away from Verizon Center and a huge money-making 22-12 ATS (65 percent). Portland has a losing against the spread mark at home this season. The Trail Blazers aren't in good form having lost five of their past seven and won't have their best scorer and rebounder, LaMarcus Aldridge, again. He's nursing a bruised back and won't return until Saturday at the earliest. The Trail Blazers had to go overtime at home to defeat the Bucks in their last game two nights ago. The Bucks have the worst record in the NBA at 13-55. Washington has won 10 of its last 14 games. The Wizards are coming off, though, a 117-111 overtime loss to Sacramento this past Tuesday. That loss has to disgust Washington, which led by 11 in the fourth quarter and blew a five-point lead with 24 seconds left. So a focused effort should be expected from the Wizards. The Wizards have covered eight of the last nine times on the road against foes with a winning home mark. Portland is 1-5 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent with an above .500 road mark. The Wizards have covered during their last six Thursday appearances and are 13-4 ATS when taking on teams from the Northwest Division. Washington has fared well against Portland, too, with much worse teams. The Wizards have won the last three meetings in the series - including the last two in Portland by three and 15 points - and are 4-1 ATS the past five times they've met Portland.

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Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM-NCAA(10-2-1 s/Jan 15)-Thurs

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on San Diego St at 9:50 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

San Diego State

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Cleveland Insider

NBA
5* Houston Rockets -7.5 over the Minnesota Timberwolves
5* Portland Trailblazers -4.5 over the Washington Wizards

CBB
5* Wofford Terriers +15 over the Michigan Wolverines

NHL
5* New Jersey Devils -120 over the Minnesota Wild
5* Philadelphia Flyers -145 over the Dallas Stars

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PICK ADDICT

2* CBB [740] San Diego State -8

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2Halves2Win:

1* GAME: Cavaliers +10 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Sheeps moves
#740 Under 128 NmexSt-SDState $1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi | NBA Sides - - 3% Wizards


Pick 705 WAS 4.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 706 PORA


nalysis: Washington Wizards at Portland Trailblazers (-5) 10:05 ET 3* Washington (+5) NCAA has begun and my Early Thursday Package is up. I analyze every game and offer you the best of that. Coll Hoops on a 21-11 (65%) recent run and a 32-18 (64%) long term run. Momentum is ours! Expect Blazers' best boy, Aldridge, to miss this contest. Though the Blazers have played well when he has missed games, Portland enters tonight on a 2-5 SU slide, including a lethargic 120-115 SU win, no cover, against lowly Milwaukee Tuesday night. The Wizards present a much tougher challenge. Washington is recently 9-4 SU and 21-12 ATS for the season on the road to +9. All NBA winning teams are 198-137 LTS. Washington is 17-13 ATS in that role. Coming off a Wednesday night loss at Sacramento, look for the Wizards to follow their inverted home/road dichotomy and bounce back with a victory.

Joe Gavazzi | CBB Sides - - 2% San Diego State
Pick 740 San Diego St. -7.0 (-110) BetOnline vs 739 NMex St


Analysis: New Mexico St. vs. San Diego St. (-7) 9:55 ET TRU Spokane, Washington 2* San Diego St. (-7) NCAA action continues and with my momentum... join me for the ride. College Hoops on a 20-11 (65%) run, how much money will you make?! Aggies' massive frontline averages over 7ft., led by 7', 5" Sim Bhullar. But, what they gain in height, they lack in quickness and athleticism. That will be death against these Aztecs. Of greater importance is the suspension of PG Ross-Miller out for an indefinite period of time. It forces the Aggie's best athlete, the quick-leaping Mullings to the point, where he is far less effective. As a result, far prefer the 29-4 SU Aztecs and the veteran leadership of HC Fisher. Motivated by the 64-58 CCT loss to New Mexico, and aided in recent weeks by the emergence of Polee as a 2nd offensive scorer to compliment Thames, look for the Aztecs to have their way on the offensive end. But, it is their Defensive Dandy status that continues to make this team a winner. Aztecs allow just 57/38/29 with combined positive margins in rebounding, TOs and Assist/TO margin of 9.4. Too much for an Aggie team who has been competing against the weak WAC.