3-28-14

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::clap::

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Friday's Sweet 16 betting cheat sheet

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 134)

Tennessee needed to sneak past the Big Ten’s Iowa in overtime in the first round just to make the field of 64 but wasted little time proving it belonged. Jarnell Stokes is averaging 20.3 points and 15 rebounds in the Volunteers’ three NCAA tournament games and will need all the points he can find to keep up with Wolverines stars Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III. Stokes has recorded 21 double-doubles on the season and is shooting 56.2 percent from the field in the NCAA tournament.

Michigan’s bid for a second straight trip to the Final Four is entering the second weekend of the NCAA tournament as the second-seeded Wolverines cruised through to the Sweet 16. Wolverines forward Jordan Morgan grabbed 10 rebounds in each of the first two tournament games and will be tasked with keeping Stokes off the boards on Thursday. Morgan being active on the inside opens up space on the perimeter for Stauskas, who buried four 3-pointers against Texas as Michigan went 14-of-28 from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Wolverines are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-2 in Volunteers lastseven7 NCAA Tournament games.


Connecticut Huskies vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-2, 146)

The seventh-seed Huskies have made the most of their return to the postseason following a one-year ban for academic sanctions, upending second-seed Villanova 77-65 in the third round as Shabazz Napier scored 21 of his 25 points in the second half. apier averages 17.8 points per game and shot 9-for-13 from the field in the second round, showing he can carry the Huskies almost single-handedly. But the Huskies also rely on a strong defense that holds opponents to 38.9 percent shooting from the field (11th nationally) and averages six blocked shots per contest (12th in the country).

Iowa State is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in 14 years, but will have to overcome the loss of one of its top players to reach the Elite Eight. The third-seed Cyclones face Connecticut in the East regional semifinals Friday in New York City without forward Georges Niang, who averaged 20.4 points in his previous five games before breaking his right foot in Iowa State’s second-round victory over North Carolina Central. Niang is lost for the rest of the season but DeAndre Kane helped ease the blow in the Cyclones’ 85-83 victory over North Carolina in the third round, scoring 24 points with 10 rebounds and seven assists.

TRENDS:

* Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Cyclones last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.


Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 138.5)

Eighth-seeded Kentucky is coming off a three-point win over top-seeded and undefeated Wichita State - a game in which four of the Wildcats' starting freshmen had strong games, led by Andrew Harrison's 20 points. Prior to their 4-1 stretch over the last two weeks, the Wildcats had lost three of four - including embarrassing defeats to Arkansas and South Carolina - as questions began to mount about the talent and character of their heralded freshman class.

The Cardinals' win over the Saint Louis Billikens was far from a work of art, as the team overcame 16-of-24 shooting from the foul line and 19 turnovers, including seven by Smith. "Everything's not going to be sweet or pretty," the senior guard said. "We're just getting the job done." Montrezl Harrell has produced most of the season, and the sophomore forward enters this contest with three straight double-doubles, including a dominant 22-point, 11-rebound effort against Connecticut in the American Athletic Association tournament title game.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.


Michigan State Spartans vs. Virginia Cavaliers (+1.5, 127)

Despite drawing a No. 4 seed in the East region, Michigan State was considered by many the NCAA tournament favorite while top-seeded Virginia had the misfortune of winding up in the same part of the bracket. One game after Adreian Payne torched Delaware for a career-high 41 points in the second round, fellow forward Branden Dawson posted a personal-best 26 points in Michigan State’s victory over Harvard. “(Payne’s) ability to shoot (the 3-pointer) and what he's added to his game is impressive. He's quite a threat,” Cavaliers coach Tony Bennett told the school’s official website.

The Cavaliers claimed both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles for the first time in school history and rebounded from a shaky second-round victory over No. 16 seed Coastal Carolina with a dominant win over eighth-seeded Memphis. The Cavaliers’ “pack-line” defense held Memphis 17 points below its season average in last Sunday’s 78-60 win, maintaining their status as the best scoring defense in Division I (55.5 points). “They're probably the best defensive team I've ever played against in college. They help each other out every possession; you will never get an easy layup on them,” Memphis senior guard Joe Jackson told reporters afterward.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Cavaliers are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in Cavaliers last nine neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dunkel


FRIDAY, MARCH 28
Time Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (3/26)


Game 875-876: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.610; Iowa State 72.616
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 1 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1 1/2); Over


Game 877-878: Michigan State vs. Virginia (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.838; Virginia 73.158
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2); Under


Game 879-880: Tennessee at Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 70.456; Michigan 76.396
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 6; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2); Over


Game 881-882: Kentucky vs. Louisville (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.430; Louisville 73.049
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodfather
Iowa State -115 ml
Virginia +2.5 -120 (buy the hook)
Tenn / Mich O/133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Game Inside the Game: Will Louisville go zone vs. KU?
By DAVID MALINSKY

While power ratings, trends, teams statistics and various other dynamics are integral in determining the value quotients of the pointspreads for sporting events, there comes that moment when the game begins, and it is player vs. player that connects to the scoreboard. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the key on-court matchups that will determine the Sweet 16 outcomes, the “Game Inside The Game”.

EAST REGIONAL at NEW YORK

Connecticut vs Iowa state: Post-Niang Realities

For Iowa State to advance over North Carolina on Sunday, despite just one practice session to adjust to the absence of versatile Georges Niang, was a tribute to the resiliency of Fred Hoiberg and his team. But was it not all sunshine, and instead more like a ray that was able to show between some clouds?

North Carolina was on the verge of breaking the game open, leading 76-68 with 4:00 remaining, when Marcus Paige took an ill-considered three-point attempt just eight seconds into the shot clock. This was despite the fact that the Tar Heels had scored on their previous five trips right at the basket, three layups and two tip-ins. Paige missed his shot, the Cyclones hit back-to-back three-pointers, and the momentum changed instantly.

Those three-pointers were part of a 12-26 performance from long range, and State needed every bit of that to overcome Niang’s absence. The anticipated weakness of interior defense without him was evident – North Carolina made 50 percent of its two-point attempts, including an alarming 57.7 in the second half. Hoiberg adjusted his starting lineup to include 6-8/245 Daniel Edozie, who had only played 115 minutes in 22 previous appearances, but he did not score or have an assist in 16 floor minutes, and was sitting at crunch time.

Iowa State’s defense was not good at exerting pressure this season - #308 in turnover ratio and #243 in steals. The Cyclones overcame that by guarding the basket pretty well, #73 at defending two-point attempts. Without Niang, that category suffered considerably.

Michigan State vs. Virginia: About those Spartan fouls

Assumptions can be dangerous in handicapping. Michigan State is in the Sweet 16 again so it is easy to fall back on memories of typical Tom Izzo teams. But this one is different. These Spartans are still alive because they may be the most difficult team to guard in the nation, with all five starters able to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket, and four of them also able to pop from three-point range. When Brandon Dawson or Kenny Kaminski are on the floor instead of Branden Dawson, all five players can extend beyond the arc.

This is a contrast to the usual “lunch pail” editions that often won through grit, toughness and fundamentals. This edition is quicker and more athletic, but not as physically imposing, and brings an unexpected issue – they foul. State committed 48 more fouls than the opposition this season, leading to 88 more FT attempts for their opponents. Over the past decade, the Spartans had averaged a +56.8 in that latter category. While there is a common and proper perception that this team is peaking at the right time, the foul issue lingers. In the final game of the regular season the Spartans committed 10 more fouls than Ohio State, and lost the made free throw count by the same number. In five post-season games they are -16 in fouls, and despite winning each time they have been out-scored by 22 points at the charity stripe.

This is indeed a very good team, but for different reasons than in the past, and that needs to be incorporated into your thought processes.

MIDWEST REGIONAL at INDIANAPOLIS

Tennessee vs. Michigan: The “Outside” Size

You will read much about the projected “Battle of the Boards” between these teams, and the matchup in the paint is indeed intriguing – Tennessee’s Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes out-weigh Michigan starters Jordan Morgan and Glenn Robinson III by 50 pounds. With the Vols having beaten their first three tourney opponents by +41 off the glass, there is an anticipation of a decisive win in that category once again. But there is another size issue that may also matter.

A John Beilein offense can be a thing of beauty for a basketball purist to watch, and when the tactics are combined with talent it can lead to something special - #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency in making it to the finals last year, and #3 this season. The requisite metrics are there across the board, with the added element of four 6-6 players, Robinson, Nick Stauskas, Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin, that are all able to shoot with accuracy from long range. There are not many teams that can defend that kind of size on the perimeter.

On paper, perhaps Tennessee can. The Vols have size and athleticism on the wings in 6-6 Jordan McRae and 6-6 Josh Richardson, while 6-2 Antonio Barton holds a slight edge in stature vs. 6-1 Derrick Walton in the PG matchup (and moreso over 5-11 Spike Albrecht). The question is whether or not they have the patience and basketball smarts – despite those wingspans they were only slightly above average at defending the arc, allowing 33.8 percent. Is the patience there to guard deep into the shot clock vs. an offense that is #313 in average length of possession?

Kentucky vs. Louisville: To Zone, or Not to Zone

Rick Pitino is 11-0 in Sweet 16 games, a tribute to his ability to develop game plans when given several days to prepare. It often leads to wrinkles in the way that the Cardinals play, and the early focus point when watching this one is how he adjusts to the “pick your poison” aspect of staying in their 2-3 zone. With so much quickness on the perimeter they have done an excellent job of getting out to three-point shooters, allowing just 28.6 percent, #2 in the nation. And in terms of first-shot offense, that can be an ideal way to defend a Kentucky attack that has struggled from the perimeter.

But will a Wildcat possession end when a jump shot clangs off the rim, or is it only a continuation? That is when it becomes “game on” in this matchup. As good as the Louisville zone can be at causing misses, that same zone makes it difficult to box out on the boards. Add in the size differential between these starting lineups (17 inches), and it is even more of an issue. For the season Kentucky finished #2 in the nation in offensive rebounding, re-starting a possession 42 percent of the time. Meanwhile the Cardinals were only #230 at clearing the defensive glass.

When Kentucky won 73-66 in the earlier matchup between these two at Rupp Arena, the Wildcats grabbed 41.5 percent of the available offensive rebounds. And note a couple of caveats – Julius Randle sat out most of the second half because of leg cramps, after scoring 17 points before intermission, while the Cardinals also still had Chane Behanan (seven rebounds in 20 minutes) on the roster. Those caroms helped lead to 42 points in the paint. Now it is adjustment time, and we will see Pitino literally play out the Cards he has been dealt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes: Michigan has secret weapon
By CHASE RUTTIG

The Midwest Regional has two of the most intriguing Sweet 16 matchups. Before you get your bets down Friday, make sure you cruise these betting news and notes for the Midwest side of the bracket.

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (-2.5, 134)

Senior Jordan Morgan came up big, playing 35 minutes and earning a double-double (15 points, 10 rebounds) in the win over a very good rebounding Texas team. The 6-foot-8 forward averages just six points and five boards per game on the year, but has been solid in the NCAA with 25 points and 20 rebounds in the past two games. Morgan has a tough matchup in Jarnell Stokes, who had 18 rebounds in Tennessee's win over Mercer. But the Wolverines should feel confident that they have the secret to beating a tough interior team after handling the Longhorns.

Tennessee looks to continue its reputation as an under-seeded team. The Volunteers were ranked 11th in Ken Pomeroy's ratings system before being handed a No. 11 play-in seed. That hasn't deterred them from making a tournament run to the point where Pomeroy's rankings have the Vols as the sixth-ranked team in the country after the opening weekend, with Michigan sitting tenth. According to Pomeroy and his ratings system, this game may just be in the Vols’ favor.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (-4, 138.5)

The Cardinals are a poor 15-31 SU against their in-state rivals and 5-9 in the Rick Pitino Era in Louisville. Luckily for the Cardinals they are red hot, winning 14 of their last 15 games (10-5 ATS) down the stretch and hold the edge in experience over a young UK squad with seniors Russ Smith and Luke Hancock anchoring the team. However, Louisville wasn't tested often this year, boasting the second weakest strength of schedule among the Sweet 16 teams (75th in the country).

Kentucky's key to victory will be the rebounding battle. The Wildcats rode a plus-7 rebounding margin in their victory against the Cardinals during the regular season. If the babyface Wildcats want to sweep the season series, that type of effort will be needed on the glass once again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Cavaliers won last three games, by total of nine points.
-- Bulls won five of their last seven games.
-- New Orleans won last four games, three by six or less points.
-- Thunder won six of their last nine games (2-4 vs spread last six).
-- Spurs won last 15 games, covered eight of last nine.
-- Knicks won nine of their last eleven games. Phoenix won seven of its last eight games (6-2 vs spread).
-- Grizzlies won five of their last six games. Golden State won eight of its last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost nine of last 10 games. Bobcats lost three of their last five.
-- Celtics lost seven of their last eight games. Toronto lost four of its last seven games.
-- Washington lost four of its last five games. Pacers lost last three road games, scoring 78 ppg.
-- Nets lost last two games, both in OT; their last three games went OT.
-- Miami lost five of its last nine games. Detroit lost six of last seven.
-- Portland lost three of its last four games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last seven games. Minnesota lost three of its last four games.
-- Jazz lost eight of their last nine games (2-5-1 vs spread last eight).
-- Kings lost seven of last ten games, covered five of last seven.
-- Nuggets lost three of their last four games.

Series records
-- Bobcats won four of last five games with Orlando.
-- Raptors won three of last four games with Boston.
-- Pacers won 11 of last 12 with Washington (93-73/93-66 this year).
-- Nets won their last five games with Cleveland.
-- Heat won 11 of last 13 games with Detroit (5-7 vs spread last 12).
-- Portland won its last five games against the Bulls.
-- Lakers lost two of last three with Minnesota, after winning 18 in a row over the Wolves before that.
-- Pelicans lost four of last five games with Utah.
-- Thunder won their last eight games with Sacramento.
-- Spurs won three of last four games with Denver.
-- Knicks won their last three games with Phoenix.
-- Warriors lost 11 of last 12 games with Memphis.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Bobcat-Magic games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Last five Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven New Orleans games went over.
-- Last four King-Thunder games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Nw York games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Memphis games stayed under total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Predators won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won their last five games, allowing nine runs. Calgary is 5-3 in last eight games.
-- Ducks won three of their last four road games.

Cold teams
-- Maple Leafs lost last six games, allowing 24 goals. Philly lost its last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Columbus lost three of last four at home. Penguins lost six of their last eight games.
-- Senators lost seven of their last eight games. Chicago lost its last three road games, scoring four goals.
-- Dallas Stars lost five of their last seven games.
-- Oilers lost last three games, outscored 16-4.

Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Philly games.
-- Seven of last nine Columbus games stayed under.
-- Nine of last ten Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Ranger games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Anaheim games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Philly lost four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Penguins won their last five games with Columbus.
-- Senators lost five of last six games with Chicago.
-- Predators won six of last eight games with Dallas.
-- Rangers won their last three games with Calgary.
-- Ducks won 16 of last 18 games with Edmonton.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler
3* Uconn

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Stephen Nover
GOY
Uconn

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THE FACTSMAN

Virginia +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at Columbus

The Penguins head to Columbus tonight where they are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus the Blue Jackets. Pittsburgh is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100). Here are all of today's picks.


FRIDAY, MARCH 28
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST


Game 1-2: Toronto at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.431; Philadelphia 12.501
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Over


Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.402; Columbus 10.477
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Under


Game 5-6: Chicago at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.729; Ottawa 11.214
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+130); Over


Game 7-8: Nashville at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.719; Dallas 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-170); Under


Game 9-10: NY Rangers at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.989; Calgary 11.882
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+130); Over


Game 11-12: Anaheim at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.958; Edmonton 9.846
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-170); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Charlotte at Orlando

The Bobcats head to Orlando tonight where they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Magic. Charlotte is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-4). Here are all of today's picks.


FRIDAY, MARCH 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 851-852: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.369; Toronto 120.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 7; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 853-854: Indiana at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.651; Washington 115.789
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 855-856: Charlotte at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 117.699; Orlando 110.439
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 7 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 4; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-4); Over


Game 857-858: Cleveland at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.332; Brooklyn 122.873
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 9 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9 1/2); Over


Game 859-860: Miami at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.977; Detroit 112.236
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 861-862: Utah at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 108.872; New Orleans 113.375
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 863-864: LA Lakers at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 107.385; Minnesota 118.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 865-866: Portland at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.454; Chicago 121.418
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 867-868: Sacramento at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.711; Oklahoma City 123.246
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 220
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 869-870: San Antonio at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 127.335; Denver 117.962
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Under


Game 871-872: New York at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 120.275; Phoenix 118.957
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 209
Dunkel Pick: New York (+6); Over


Game 873-874: Memphis at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.871; Golden State 121.314
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Tennessee vs. Michigan

The Wolverines come into their Sweet 16 matchup with Tennessee tonight carrying a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolverines favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games as well as the NCAA Sweet 16 contests.


FRIDAY, MARCH 28
Time Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (3/26)


Game 875-876: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.610; Iowa State 72.616
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 1 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1 1/2); Over


Game 877-878: Michigan State vs. Virginia (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.838; Virginia 73.158
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2); Under


Game 879-880: Tennessee vs. Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 70.456; Michigan 76.396
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 6; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2); Over


Game 881-882: Kentucky vs. Louisville (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.430; Louisville 73.049
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Friday, March 28

Friday's NCAA games
Over last 12 years, there have been four regional semifinal games with a 2-11 matchup; 2-seed won all four games, covering three. Tennessee won eight of last nine games, with only loss by 7 to Florida in SEC tourney; its 87-52 win over Virginia Dec 30 looks even better now. Michigan won nine of its last ten games; they're #6 in country, making 39.8% of its 3's, but this game is in a dome, which sometimes hurts shooters. Both sides here are in bottom 30 in country in tempo. Vols have experience edge.

Madison Square Garden will be home court for UConn, which played in Big East tourney there every year until this year. Napier injured his shin against Villanova, returned to court late in game, unsure if leg will be an issue here. Iowa State is without Niang, its best player; they made 12-26 from arc in win over UNC Sunday. Cyclones beat UConn 77-64 in 2012 NCAA tourney game. Over last 13 years, there were five 3-7 seed games in this round; underdog covered three of those five games.

Kentucky (+1.5) beat Louisville 73-66 at home Dec 28, in brickfest that saw teams go 9-40 from arc, 30-52 on foul line. This is the #1 rivalry in college hoop; teams aren't in same league but in same state. Cards won by 3 in LY's game, after losing twice to Kentucky year before, including 69-61 loss in national semis, Pitino's only loss in last 13 tourney games. Louisville won seven games in a row overall, 14 of last 15. Wildcats beat Wichita Sunday, their best effort of season; they've won four of last five, have also won eight straight NCAA tourney games and 15 of last 17.

Izzo coached against Tony Bennett's dad when he was at Wisconsin; he beat Badgers 53-41 in national semis in 2000, when Spartans won title. State won last five games, beating 13/12 seeds last week to get here; they split pair with ACC teams, losing at UNC, beating Va Tech. Virginia lost by 10 to Wisconsin in its only Big Dozen game; they play 6th-slowest pace in country. Izzo is 7-4 in this round, but got eliminated in regional semis last two years, by Louisville/Duke. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Iowa State -1.5
100* Louisville -4
50* Virginia / Michigan St Over 127

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MIAMI at DETROIT
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss 236-144 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.1% | 77.6 units ) 26-14 this year. ( 65.0% | 10.6 units )

CLEVELAND at BROOKLYN
Play On - Any team vs the money line (BROOKLYN) an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or more 130-39 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.9% | 55.1 units ) 15-8 this year. ( 65.2% | -4.3 units )

SAN ANTONIO at DENVER
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team 223-136 since 1997. ( 62.1% | 73.4 units ) 14-5 this year. ( 73.7% | 8.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CONNECTICUT at IOWA ST
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games 142-80 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.0% | 54.0 units ) 18-17 this year. ( 51.4% | -0.7 units )

MICHIGAN ST at VIRGINIA
Play Against - A favorite vs. the money line (MICHIGAN ST) good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots 88-132 since 1997. ( 40.0% | 53.5 units ) 5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 7.5 units )

MICHIGAN ST at VIRGINIA
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers 78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units ) 11-8 this year. ( 57.9% | 2.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -144 over Ottawa Senators
(System Record: 81-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 81-66-1

Rest of the Plays
New York Rangers -142 over Calgary Flames
Pittsburgh Penguins +104 over Columbus
Anaheim Ducks -155 over Edmonton


Basketball Crusher
Michigan State -128 over Virginia
(System Record: 64-8, lost last 6 games)
Overall Record: 64-80-5

Rest of the Plays
Louisville -4 over Kentucky
Iowa State -125 over Connecticut
Michigan -135 over Tennessee


Soccer Crusher
All Boys + Godoy Cruz UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 542-20, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 542-467-80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn-------

Mighty missed with Baylor (+3) on Thursday and likes Tennessee on Friday. The deficit is 215 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns



NHL
Nashville vs. Dallas
*ONLY $12 IF YOU ACT RIGHT NOW!* Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL!
top bet @ Under 5.5 -120


NBA
San Antonio vs. Denver
Burns' Customer Appreciation ATS ANNIHILATOR!
BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) @ 7.5 -115 Denver


NBA
San Antonio vs. Denver
*SAILS OVER THE TOTAL* Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP SHOOTOUT
Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu) @ Over 215.5 -110


NCAAB
Kentucky vs. Louisville
*HOT SIDE* Burns' Sweet 16 Best Of The Best!
Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) @ -4.5 -124 Louisville


NCAAB
Michigan St vs. Virginia
Burns' 10* Sweet 16 BEST BET! (UPSET ALERT!)
carbonsports @ 2.5 -110 Virginia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

root TOP plays VA and TENNE
others UCONN and LVILLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JdWarriors5
4* Iowa State -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Leiner
1500* Michigan-2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* Sweet 16 GOY (won Total on Thursday)

My 10* Sweet 16 Game of the Year is on Louisville at 9:45 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges
Last night 2-3

Friday

Virginia +2 Michigan St.

Saturday

Florida -10 1/2 Dayton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

5* Chicago Bulls -4.5
4* Knicks Under 209
4* Michigan State -2

[golden contender]

Friday card has the 100% NCAAB Tournament Game of the Year + 2 more sweet 16 plays that are from system cashing over 90%. In the NBA We have the 5* Blowout from a system that wins by 18 points and a 14-1 Dog with bite. Free NBA Play below


On Friday the free NBA Play is on Charlotte. Game 855 at 7:05 eastern. The Bobcats fit a solid system here that plays on rested conference road favorites that won and covered as home favorite, while scoring 100 or more points,vs an opponent off a home dog spread win by 7 or more points. This system has cashed over 80% long term. Charlotte has covered the last 5 in the series and won by 10 the last time they were here in Orlando. They have also won and covered 14 of the last 19 vs teams that allow 99 or more points per game. The Magic are 0-3 ats after allowing 85 or less points and have lost 10 of the last 11 wit 2 days rest. Look for Charlotte to win and cover. ON Friday we have the 2014 NCAAB Tournament 100% Game of the Year backed with a Powerful sweet 16 system and several big angles. There is also 2 more tournament plays both cashing over 90% on long term tournament systems. In the NBA we have a Huge undefeated 5* System that wins by an incredible 18 points per game and a 14-1 Dog with bite system. Message to Jump on Now as we start there weekend big in Hoops. For the free NBA Play take Charlotte. GC