4-18-14

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Friday's NHL playoffs betting news and notes

Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning (-108, 5)

Montreal dominated Game 1 and swarmed the Lighting for long stretches but had to overcome a shaky performance by goaltender Carey Price before prevailing on Dale Weise's goal with less than two minutes left in the first overtime. The Canadiens scored one goal in each of the four regular-season meetings between the teams, so the offensive eruption was nearly as much of a surprise as Weise playing the hero. "I can’t remember the last time I scored an overtime goal, but this has to be the biggest goal of my career," said Weise, who has 11 goals in 163 games.

Tampa Bay suffered a blow in the series opener when rookie and leading scorer Ondrej Palat exited the game with an upper-body injury, the same ailment that sidelined him for the regular-season finale. Palat, who had 23 goals and 36 assists, missed practice Thursday and will be a game-time decision, according to head coach Jon Cooper. One plus for the Lightning was the play of replacement Alex Killorn, who scored in the third period before setting up captain Steven Stamkos' tying tally. Starting netminder Ben Bishop, who missed the final three games of the season, practiced in a limited duty Thursday but Cooper said: "I don't think we'll be seeing Bishop anytime soon."

TRENDS:

* Canadiens are 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Over is 4-1-2 in Lightning last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Canadiens are 12-4 in their last 16 overall.


Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins (-185, 5)

With captain Henrik Zetterberg and standout Pavel Datsyuk out for long stretches, Gustav Nyquist emerged as a star by scoring 28 goals - 23 during a stunning 28-game span. Detroit dressed 13 players who helped Grand Rapids win the Calder Cup with Grand Rapids of the American Hockey League last season, including rookies Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan and Tomas Jurco. "The young guys add a big element to the team," center Darren Helm said. "They’re going to be important guys in the playoffs." Datsyuk returned in early April to join veterans Daniel Alfredsson and Johan Franzen, but the onus will be on Jimmy Howard, who had a sub-par season before winning four of his last five starts.

The only team to win at least 30 home games (31-7-3) en route to capturing the Presidents' Trophy, Boston features a deep, balanced attack, one of the top netminders in Tuukka Rask and a defense anchored by towering captain Zdeno Chara. Patrice Bergeron, one of five Bruins to score at least 20 goals, may have supplanted Datsyuk as the league's premier two-way player following a 30-goal season that tied rejuvenated veteran Jarome Iginla for the team lead. "It's not by accident you hear his name in the Hart Trophy conversation," Boston coach Claude Julien said of Bergeron's MVP chances. Rask registered a league-high seven shutouts as the Bruins posted an NHL-best 84-goal differential.

TRENDS:

* Red Wings are 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in Boston.
* Bruins are 45-19 in their last 64 vs. Eastern Conference.


Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks (-176, 5.5)

Nine of Dallas' 18 skaters made their postseason debut on Wednesday, including goal-scorers Colton Sceviour and Jamie Benn. But the captain refused to cite that as the reason the team played poorly over the first 35 minutes. "We don't want to use that as an excuse," Benn said. "We know how we have to play to beat these guys and we're just going to need a real strong effort (Friday)."

Matt Beleskey got hurt in the opener, leaving the contest midway through the third period with a lower-body injury he says has been an ongoing issue for most of the season. It is uncertain whether or not he will be available Friday. "I'll see how I feel (Friday)," Beleskey told the team's website. "It's going to be every morning coming in and seeing how I feel from there." Anaheim will need to do a better job on line changes, as it was called for a pair of too-many-men-on-the-ice penalties Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Anaheim.
* Stars are 1-4 in their last five road games.
* Over is 8-2-6 in Ducks last 16 Conference Quarterfinals games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Friday's American League games:

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians (-127, 8)

Cold pitching stat: The Indians have lost right-hander Justin Masterson's last five starts against the American League East.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista is 6-for-17 with two home runs in his career against Masterson.

Weather: There is a 29 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid-50s and wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1 in Toronto right-hander Drew Hutchison's last seven road starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (-128, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Angels right-hander Jered Weaver has allowed five home runs through his first 18 2/3 innings this season.

Cold batting stat: Tigers outfielder Austin Jackson is 2-for-13 and has fanned six times versus Weaver.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing out to center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Los Angeles is 8-2 in Weaver's previous 10 starts against the American League Central.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-136, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander John Lackey threw six solid innings to upend the Orioles 6-2 in his season debut.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Boston roster are hitting .200 with three homers in 165 at-bats versus Baltimore starter Chris Tillman.

Weather: Temperatures will hover around 40 with partly cloudy skies.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 7-1 in Tillman's last eight Friday starts.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (+104, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is limiting opponents to a .236 batting average through three starts.

Hot batting stat: Rays outfielder Matt Joyce and second baseman Ben Zobrist have combined to hit five homers in 26 at-bats versus Kuroda.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 10-2-1 in Kuroda's last 13 road starts against teams with losing records.

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (-157, 10)

Cold pitching stat: Texas is 3-7 in starter Martin Perez's last 10 series-opening appearances.

Hot batting stat: Rangers slugger Prince Fielder is 4-for-8 with two home runs against White Sox right-hander Felipe Paulino.

Weather: Partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the low-70s.

Key betting note: Under is 4-1 in Perez's last five home starts.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-150, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Twins right-hander Ricky Nolasco stymied the Royals on five hits over eight solid innings to earn the win last Saturday.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota star Joe Mauer is 9-for-21 with six RBIs lifetime versus Kansas City lefty Jason Vargas.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under clear skies with wind blowing out to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 6-0 in Minnesota's last six series openers.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-200, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Astros right-hander Jarred Cosart twirled seven strong innings in his previous start, fanning eight in a win over Texas.

Hot batting stat: Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson has three singles and a double in five career at-bats against Cosart.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Oakland is 6-0 in Sonny Gray's last six starts on five days rest.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:06 p.m. ET Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Friday's National League games:

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-101)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija has held opponents to three runs over his first 21 innings this season.

Cold batting stat: Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips is a .207 hitter with six strikeouts in 29 at-bats versus Samardzija.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 12-4 in Samardzija's last 16 home starts.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-111, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse struck out nine over 8 2/3 sensational innings in a win over Pittsburgh last Sunday.

Hot batting stat: Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun is 7-for-15 with a homer in his career against Pirates starter Charlie Morton.

Weather: Overcast skies are expected with temperatures in the low-60s.

Key betting note: The Pirates are 6-1 in Morton's last seven appearances following a quality start in his previous outing.

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (+103, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez was torched for six runs over six innings in a loss to Atlanta in his last outing.

Cold batting stat: Members of the St. Louis roster are hitting .221 with 17 strikeouts in 68 innings versus Gonzalez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s under cloudy skies.

Key betting note: The Cardinals are 7-2 in right-hander Michael Wacha's last nine starts.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-101, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Braves starter Aaron Harang has limited opponents to a .145 average through his first three starts of the year.

Hot batting stat: Atlanta outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are a combined 17-for-39 against Mets starter Jonathon Niese.

Weather: Overcast skies are in the forecast with temperatures in the mid-40s.

Key betting note: New York is 6-0 in Niese's last six Friday starts.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (-147, 10.5)

Cold pitching stat: Philadelphia is just 1-5 in right-hander Jonathan Pettibone's last six road starts.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Colorado roster are a combined 8-for-17 versus Pettibone.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s are expected with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 11-2 in Pettibone's previous 13 games.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke has racked up 16 strikeouts over his previous two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles outfielder Matt Kemp is 5-for-15 with a pair of home runs against Arizona starter Wade Miley.

Weather: Fans should expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the high-50s.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 12-1 in Greinke's last 13 starts against division foes.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (+101, 6.5)

Cold pitching stat: San Francisco is 2-9 in starter Matt Cain's last 11 outings against teams with losing records.

Cold batting stat: Padres outfielder Seth Smith has just two hits in 26 lifetime at-bats versus Cain.

Weather: Partly cloudy skies are forecast with temperatures in the low-60s and wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph but tapering off.

Key betting note: Under is 6-0 in San Diego right-hander Tyson Ross' last six starts against teams with winning records.

Interleague

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins (-116, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Over is 8-2-1 in Miami right-hander Nate Eovaldi's last 11 starts with five days rest.

Hot batting stat: Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 3-for-5 with two home runs against Mariners starter Chris Young.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s but the Marlins Park roof may be closed with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Key betting note: Under is 20-5-4 in Miami's last 29 interleague home games.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:10 p.m. ET Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Angels at Tigers

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (-128)

The Detroit Tigers broke out of their offensive funk in their last time out and would like nothing more than to end their struggles in another area – beating the Los Angeles Angels. The Tigers, who host Los Angeles for the first of three games on Friday, halted a stretch in which they scored nine runs over the previous four games with Thursday’s 7-5 win over the Cleveland Indians. Ian Kinsler homered and drove in four as Detroit won for only the third time in eight tries.

The Tigers, who scored the second-most runs in the majors a season ago, hope those offensive struggles won’t return with the arrival of the Angels, who held them to a total of 17 runs in six 2013 matchups and has won the last nine meetings overall. Los Angeles looks to start its nine-game road trip off on the right foot after Chris Iannetta hit his fourth career walk-off home run in the 12th inning Wednesday as the Angels avoided a three-game home sweep by the Oakland Athletics. The Angels lead the majors with 24 homers and rank second with 83 runs scored.

TV: 7:08 p.m. ET, FSN West (Los Angeles) FSN Detroit

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as -128 home faves for the first game of the weekend series.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Angels (-140), Tigers (-191)

INJURY REPORT: Angels OF Josh Hamilton (Late May, thumb), OF Kole Calhoun (15-day DL, ankle). Tigers OF Andy Dirks (15-day DL, back)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Halo's record certainly doesn't match their payroll thus far." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Jered Weaver (0-2, 5.79 ERA) vs. Tigers LH Drew Smyly (1-0, 0.00)

Weaver avoided taking a loss for the first time in three turns on Saturday, but Los Angeles fell to 0-3 in his starts after he surrendered four runs on three hits and four walks over 6 2/3 innings against the New York Mets. After yielding four home runs on the road in his previous turn, the three-time All-Star surrendered another at home against the Mets and is winless after three starts for the first time in his career. Weaver has also struggled in 10 career outings against the Tigers, going 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA.

After winning the rotation job in spring training, Smyly will make his long-awaited first start of the season as the Tigers haven’t needed him due to two postponements and three scheduled off-days. The 24-year-old has been sharp in his two middle-relief appearances, however, tossing a pair of scoreless three-inning outings while allowing two hits and striking out six. Smyly has a 2.77 ERA in three career appearances (one start) versus the Angels, but has yet to factor into the decision against them.

TRENDS:

* Angels are 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Weaver's last five starts vs. Tigers.
* Tigers are 5-2 in their last seven home games.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Angels last 11 road games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 67 percent of wagers are on Detroit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, APRIL 18th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 CINCINNATI @ #902 CHICAGO CUBS - 2:20 PM
•Reds RH Alfredo Simon (1-1, 1.20 ERA, WHIP: 0.733) - Making only his second start after 99 relief appearances over his first two seasons in Cincinnati, Simon matched his career high with eight innings in Saturday’s hard-luck 1-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. The 32-year-old Dominican allowed a second-inning solo homer among his five hits to fall to 4-10 in 21 all-time starts. Simon, who saw his stay in the rotation extended after Mat Latos suffered a setback with his right elbow, went 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA against the Cubs in seven trips out of the bullpen in 2013.

•Cubs RH Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 1.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.048) - Samardzija lasted seven frames for the third time in as many outings, settling for a no-decision despite holding the St. Louis Cardinals to one run and six hits during last Friday’s 6-3, 11-inning victory. The Cubs’ fifth-round pick of the 2006 draft has received very little help from his offense, getting his first run support (one run) of the season in his final inning of work. Samardzija is 1-3 with a 4.92 ERA in 21 career appearances (seven starts) versus the Reds.

#903 ST LOUIS @ #904 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.89 ERA, WHIP: 0.947) - Wacha has worked at least six innings in all three of his starts and has allowed a total of four runs, although three of those came in his last outing. He has walked one batter in each of his outings, striking out 18 along the way. Wacha has given up one extra-base hit in 35 at-bats against right-handed hitters this season.

•Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.222) - Gonzalez has worked exactly six innings in all three starts, allowing a total of one run in his first two outings before surrendering six runs in Sunday's loss to Atlanta. First-pitch strikes will be key for Gonzalez as opponents are hitting .156 against him after falling behind 0-1 while that number rises to .333 if the first pitch is a ball. Gonzalez has made two career starts against the Cardinals, allowing a total of two runs in 16 innings.

#905 MILWAUKEE @ #906 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Brewers RH Kyle Lohse (2-1, 3.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.113) - Lohse came within one out of a complete game against Pittsburgh at home last week, allowing one run and four hits without walking a batter over 8 2/3 innings to pick up the win. The California native struck out nine in that outing and has 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings over three starts this season. Lohse is 10-2 with a 3.41 ERA in his career against the Pirates, including 5-1 in 13 games - 12 starts - at PNC Park.

•Pirates RH Charlie Morton (0-1, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.211) - Morton went up against Lohse last week and allowed four runs - two earned - on six hits and three walks in seven innings. The 30-year-old put up six scoreless innings in his first starts but had some trouble avoiding one big inning in the next two. Morton is just 2-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

#907 ATLANTA @ #908 NY METS - 7:10 PM
•Braves RH Aaron Harang (2-1, 0.96 ERA, WHIP: 0.803) - Harang was a tough-luck loser in the opener of the first series between the teams on April 8, allowing just one run and two hits while striking out nine in six innings of a 4-0 loss. A late addition to the Braves this spring when their rotation became banged up, the veteran has been a bright spot; he has yielded only nine hits and six walks in 18 2/3 innings over three starts. Including the matchup earlier this month, the 35-year-old Harang is 4-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Mets.

•Mets LH Jonathon Niese (0-1, 3.46 ERA, WHIP: 1.077) - Niese allowed three runs and six hits in 7 1/3 innings at the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday, helping the Mets pick up a 7-6 victory in 13 innings. It was his second start since coming off the disabled list to begin the year, and the second in which he allowed exactly one walk and six hits. The lefty had a 6.91 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2013 but almost all of the damage came at Atlanta, as he yielded a run and struck out nine in seven innings in his lone home start against the Braves.

#909 PHILADELPHIA @ #910 COLORADO - 8:40 PM
•Phillies RH Jonathan Pettibone (0-0, 1.80 ERA, WHIP: 1.800) - Pettibone won his only start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on April 6 before making his 2014 debut Saturday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) and eight hits in five innings of Philadelphia's 5-4 victory. The 23-year-old Placentia, Calif., native went 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 18 starts in 2013 - his rookie season. One of the losses came June 15 in Colorado, when he was crushed for career highs of seven runs (six earned) and 10 hits in three innings of a 10-5 setback.

•Rockies RH Tyler Chatwood (0-0, 6.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.000) - Chatwood returned from a stint on the disabled list with a hamstring injury and yielded four runs and six hits in six innings of the Rockies' 5-4 loss at San Francisco on Saturday while throwing 74 pitches. Colorado needs the 24-year-old Redlands, Calif., native, who was 8-5 with 3.15 ERA in 20 starts during a breakthrough 2013, to help stabilize a rotation which has an ERA of 4.97. Chatwood allowed two runs and seven hits in five innings opposite Pettibone in the June 15 game.

#911 SAN FRANCISCO @ #912 SAN DIEGO - 10:10 PM
•Giants RH Matt Cain (0-2, 4.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.222) - Cain has a 3.15 career ERA against the Padres but his record is just 7-11 in 31 career starts. He struck out 10 in seven innings and gave up two runs and six hits in a no-decision in his lone 2013 start against San Diego. Cain was a hard-luck loser in his last outing when he gave up one run and four hits in seven innings of last Saturday’s 1-0 loss to Colorado.

•Padres RH Tyson Ross (1-2, 3.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Ross excelled in his last start when he allowed one run and six hits in seven innings while defeating the Detroit Tigers. He walked nine in 10 1/3 innings over his first two starts before having superb command against Detroit, striking out seven and walking just one. Ross is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Giants.

#913 ARIZONA @ #914 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•Diamondbacks LH Wade Miley (2-2, 5.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.280) - Miley is 0-2 against the Dodgers this season, losing the season-opening game in Australia and also taking the defeat in Phoenix last Saturday. He has allowed eight runs in 10 innings against Los Angeles as his career numbers have dipped to 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 appearances (nine starts) against the Dodgers. Miley defeated San Francisco and Colorado in between the two losses to Los Angeles.

•Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (3-0, 2.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.102) - Greinke was matched up against Miley in the 8-5 victory last Saturday and allowed one run and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings to record the victory. He has struck out eight in each of his past two starts and has fanned 21 against just two walks in 16 1/3 innings. Greinke is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA in nine career starts against the Diamondbacks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, APRIL 18th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#915 LA ANGELS @ #916 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Angels RH Jered Weaver (0-2, 5.79 ERA, WHIP: 1.125) - Weaver avoided taking a loss for the first time in three turns on Saturday, but Los Angeles fell to 0-3 in his starts after he surrendered four runs on three hits and four walks over 6 2/3 innings against the New York Mets. After yielding four home runs on the road in his previous turn, the three-time All-Star surrendered another at home against the Mets and is winless after three starts for the first time in his career. Weaver has also struggled in 10 career outings against the Tigers, going 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA.

•Tigers LH Drew Smyly (1-0, 0.00 ERA, WHIP: 0.500) - After winning the rotation job in spring training, Smyly will make his long-awaited first start of the season as the Tigers haven’t needed him due to two postponements and three scheduled off-days. The 24-year-old has been sharp in his two middle-relief appearances, however, tossing a pair of scoreless three-inning outings while allowing two hits and striking out six. Smyly has a 2.77 ERA in three career appearances (one start) versus the Angels, but has yet to factor into the decision against them.

#917 TORONTO @ #918 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (1-1, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.432) - Hutchison has put together two outstanding starts in which he did not allow a run in 11 1/3 innings combined, sandwiching a rough one against the New York Yankees. The 23-year-old, who missed all of the 2013 season after Tommy John surgery, has struck out 15 in 14 2/3 innings overall. Hutchison faces the Indians for the first time in his career, but Elliot Johnson is 2-for-2 against him.

•Indians RH Justin Masterson (0-0, 5.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.695) - Masterson followed up a solid season debut against Oakland with two disappointing outings when he yielded 10 runs in 8 1/3 frames while giving up 14 hits. The sinkerball specialist is coming off his best season, going 14-10 in 32 appearances. Melky Cabrera is 12-for-24 with a homer and Bautista is 6-for-17 with two blasts against Masterson, who is 4-1 in 14 games (six starts) with a 2.79 ERA versus the Jays.

#919 NY YANKEES @ #920 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 3.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.125) - Kuroda has been solid for the bulk of his two-plus seasons with New York but has rarely fared well against the Rays, posting a 7.36 ERA in five career starts. The veteran has given up eight home runs in 29 1/3 innings in those encounters, including six in his three previous starts at Tropicana Field. Kuroda, who got the win after allowing four runs in 6 1/3 innings against Boston on Saturday, has lasted at least six innings in each of his three starts this year.

•Rays LH Erik Bedard (0-0, 0.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Bedard, who signed with Tampa Bay at the end of spring training and was pressed into the rotation due to a series of injuries to Rays starters, is no stranger to American League East battles, having spent five years with Baltimore and part of another with Boston. The 35-year-old gave up four runs in 11 innings over two starts versus the Yankees in 2013 and allowed two runs in five frames in his lone outing at Tropicana Field. Bedard, the seventh starter already used by the Rays, yielded an unearned run in two innings of relief in his Tampa Bay debut Sunday.

#921 BALTIMORE @ #922 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-1, 0.84 ERA, WHIP: 0.844) - Tillman held Boston to one run on seven hits in five innings during a no-decision on Opening Day and has only gotten better since, yielding a total of one earned run in 16 1/3 innings over his last two turns. The 26-year-old was the tough-luck loser last time out, when he surrendered a pair of unearned runs over eight innings of a 2-0 loss to Toronto. Tillman has always been strong against the Red Sox and owns a 4-2 record with a 2.67 ERA against them in his career.

•Red Sox RH John Lackey (2-1, 3.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.125) - Lackey allowed a career-high four home runs while being lit up for six runs on 10 hits by the New York Yankees last weekend. The veteran had yielded two earned runs combined in his first two starts, with both of those coming in a six-inning stint at Baltimore on April 2 that earned him a win. Lackey is 14-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 career starts against the Orioles but has had trouble retiring Chris Davis (11-for-32 with two home runs) in the past.

#923 CHI WHITE SOX @ #924 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•White Sox RH Felipe Paulino (0-1, 7.98 ERA, WHIP: 2.115) - Paulino is coming off back-to-back poor outings and may need a strong effort to keep his rotation spot. The 30-year-old hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2012 due to a serious arm injury prior to landing a starting role with the White Sox. Paulino has a 3.45 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against Texas.

•Rangers LH Martin Perez (2-0, 2.70 ERA, WHIP: 1.300) - Perez is coming off a sensational performance against Houston in which he allowed five hits in eight innings while recording a 1-0 victory. The 23-year-old has struck out 12 and walked six and has yet to allow a homer in 20 innings. Perez allowed four runs and eight hits in seven innings while beat the White Sox last August in his only career start against Chicago.

#925 MINNESOTA @ #926 KANSAS CITY - 8:10 PM
•Twins RH Ricky Nolasco (1-1, 5.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.611) - After allowing five runs in each of his first two starts, Nolasco allowed one run and five hits in eight innings - the longest start by a Minnesota pitcher this season - in the Twins' 7-1 victory over Kansas City on Saturday. The 31-year-old Corona, Calif., native, who went 8-3 with the Los Angeles Dodgers last season after being traded by Miami in early July, worked with pitching coach Rick Anderson and made an adjustment in his mechanics by not flying open with his front shoulder. "That's just trying to do too much, being too excited," Nolasco told the Pioneer Press. "So you just go back and slow yourself down and finish pitches."

•Royals LH Jason Vargas (1-0, 1.64 ERA, WHIP: 0.864) - Vargas pitched well enough to win - two runs and five hits in seven innings - but at least wasn't saddled with the loss when the Royals lost 4-3 at Minnesota on Sunday. The 31-year-old Apple Valley, Calif., native, who was 9-8 with the Los Angeles Angels last season, is 2-3 with a 4.92 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against the Twins. Joe Mauer (9-for-21, six RBIs) has given Vargas the most trouble while Minnesota catcher Josmil Pinto hit a two-run homer against him Sunday.

#927 HOUSTON @ #928 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Astros RH Jarred Cosart (1-1, 4.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.056) - Cosart yielded three runs and six hits while striking out a career-high eight batters in seven innings, but did not figure in the decision in Houston's 6-5 victory at Texas on Saturday. The 23-year-old League City, Texas, native was 1-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 10 starts last season - 0-0, 0.89 in two outings versus Oakland. Cosart walked 35 and struck out 33 in 60 innings in 2013, but has shown marked improvement with his control as he has six walks and 15 strikeouts in 18 innings this season.

•Athletics RH Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.95 ERA, WHIP: 1.211) - Gray, 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) last season, matched a career high with nine strikeouts while allowing five hits in seven innings against Seattle. The 24-year-old Nashville, Tenn., native, who went 1-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16 innings over two starts against Houston in 2013, has allowed 24 of his 26 career runs in the first three frames. "I still have to prepare myself better in the early innings,” Gray told reporters. “I’ll work on it, get better at it.”

#929 SEATTLE @ #930 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Mariners RH Chris Young (0-0, 0.00 ERA, WHIP: 0.875) - Young had a strong first start with the Mariners as he blanked Oakland on four hits over six innings. Overall, he has allowed four hits in eight scoreless innings as he attempts to revive a career that appeared in stall mode when he didn’t pitch in the majors last season. Young is 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins.

•Marlins RH Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 4.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.035) - Eovaldi allowed four runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings while taking a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last outing. He has struck out 19 and walked just one in 19 1/3 innings through three starts. Eovaldi tossed six shutout innings – allowing five hits and walking none – in a no-decision against the Mariners on June 8, 2012, when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, APRIL 18th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Friday, 4/18/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________

Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 1.29 in three starts this season. Simon is 1-1, 1.20 in two starts this season.
-- Wacha is 2-0, 1.89 in three starts this season. Gonzalez is 2-1, 3.50.
-- Lohse is 2-0, 2.16 in his last couple starts.
-- Harang is 2-1, 0.96 in three starts this season.
-- Pettibone is 2-1, 3.66 in his last six starts.
-- Greinke is 3-0, 2.76 in three starts this season.

-- Hutchison is 1-1, 3.68 in three starts, two of which were scoreless.
-- Kuroda is 2-1, 3.86 in three starts this season.
-- Tillman is 1-1, 1.08 in his first three starts.
-- Perez is 2-0, 2.79 in three starts this season.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 1.64 in three starts this season.
-- Gray is 2-0, 1.89 in three starts this season.

-- Young threw six shutout innings in his first start since 2012.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Morton is 0-1, 6.23 in his last two starts.
-- Niese is 0-1, 3.46 in two starts this season.
-- Chatwood is 1-1, 4.26 in his last three starts.
-- Cain is 0-2, 4.50 in three starts this year. Ross is 1-2, 6.23 in his three starts.
-- Miley is 2-2, 5.04 in four starts this season.

-- Weaver is 0-2, 6.27 in three starts this season.
-- Masterson is 0-0, 12.97 in his last two starts. Smyly was 4-3, 3.99 in his 18 starts in 2012, his only MLB starts.
-- Bedard was 0-2, 5.63 in his last three starts LY.
-- Lackey is 1-1, 4.97 in his last two starts.
-- Paulino is 0-1, 11.57 in his last two starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 5.50 in three starts this season.
-- Cosart is 0-1, 5.54 in his last couple starts.

-- Eovaldi is 1-1, 4.19 in three starts this season.

•Totals
-- Seven of last nine Cub games went over the total.
-- Four of last five St Louis road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Seven of nine Atlanta road games stayed under.
-- Four of six games at Coors Field went over total.
-- Four of last five San Diego games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Arizona road games went over total.

-- 11 of 14 Angel games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Toronto games went over.
-- Five of last seven New York games stayed under.
-- 12 of 16 Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four White Sox games stayed under.
-- 12 of 15 Minnesota games went over the total. Four of Royals' last five home games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Houston games stayed under total.

-- Seven of Miami's last eight games went over total.

•Hot Teams
-- Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Pirates won five of their seven home games.
-- Braves won five of their last six games. Mets won four of last five.
-- Colorado won four of its six home games. Phillies won four of last six overall.
-- Giants won four of their last five road games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last nine games.

-- Angels won four of their six road games.
-- Yankees won six of its last seven games.
-- Orioles won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Kansas City won its last three games. Twins won five of their last six.
-- Oakland won four of its last five games.

•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost 10 of their first 14 games.
-- Washington lost five of its last seven games.
-- Brewers lost three of their last four games.
-- Arizona lost its last six games.

-- Detroit won five of its seven home games.
-- Indians lost five of their last seven games. Toronto is 3-4 in its last seven home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost its last four games, outscored 32-7.
-- Red Sox lost four of five series openers.
-- White Sox lost four of their six road games.
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 14 games.

-- Marlins lost nine of their last ten games. Seattle lost five of last six.

Diamond Trends - Friday
•NY METS are 1-18 (-19.8 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9.

•TEXAS is 25-6 UNDER (+18.3 Units) against American League Central opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 3.9.

•BALTIMORE is 39-18 (+25.3 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.7.

•ZACK GREINKE is 14-1 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GREINKE 4.1, OPPONENT 2.1.

•JOHN LACKEY is 13-3 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LACKEY 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CINCINNATI) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better (NL), with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game.
(43-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.8%, +30.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (40-16 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +100
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 39 (69.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4, +7.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (281-262, -28.1 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Cubs -105
Rockies -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Braves on Thursday and likes the Canadiens on Friday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks
FRIDAY

OUR NBA PLAYS & ANALYSIS WILL RESUME FOR THE PLAYOFFS

================================================== =======


NHL HOCKEY



Play Boston -200 over Detroit (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
Play Anaheim -190 over Dallas (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

FRIDAY BASEBALL




Play Cleveland -120 over Toronto----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
7:00 PM EST


Toronto has lost 32 of the last 53 games when playing on a Friday and they have also lost 93 of the last 166 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125. Toronto has lost 39 of the last 67 games after having won four or five of the last six games and they have lost 68 of the last 125 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs.




Play Detroit -125 over Los Angeles Angels----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
7:00 PM EST


Los Angeles has lost 39 of the last 63 games when playing in the month of April and they have lost 45 of the last 75 road games when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher. Los Angeles has lost 47 of the last 87 games coming off two or more OVER the totals and they have lost 71 of the last 129 night games.

================================================== =====================





Play New York Yankees -110 over Tampa Bay----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -180 over Arizona----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

FRIDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

PLAYS RESUME ON SATURDAY FOR PLAYOFFS


=========================================


NHL HOCKEY


50* Play Anaheim -190 over Dallas (NHL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Montreal +115 over Tampa Bay (NHL BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Milwaukee -110 over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY)

Kyle Lohse has won 38 of the last 62 games when pitching in the month of April and he has won 33 of the last 57 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.Kyle Lohse has won 29 of the last 46 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 29 of the last 49 night games.



1000* Play Oakland -195 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 91 of the last 119 games when playing as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have lost 35 of the last 53 games when playing on a Friday.Houston has lost 105 of the last 161 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 98 of the last 145 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games.

================================================== ===



50* Play LA Dodgers -180 over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play NY Yankees -110 over Tampa Bay (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
A great day Thursday as we cash both our 2 unit afternoon play and 5 Star UNDER. Friday I've got a rare three picks locked in as I like what I see to start the weekend. Lets keep it going. Write ups to come tomorrow .

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals - UNDER 7 RUNS (-116)
Listed Pitchers: Wacha vs Gonzalez
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.72 units)

2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox - ORIOLES TO WIN (+129)
Listed Pitchers: Tillman vs Lackey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.58 units)

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Cosart vs Gray
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at NY Mets

The Braves head to New York tonight to face a Mets team that is coming off a 5-2 win over the Diamondbacks and is 0-6 in Jon Niese's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120). Here are all of today's picks.


FRIDAY, APRIL 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.917; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.006
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); N/A


Game 903-904: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.661; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.746
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under


Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.653; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.237
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Under


Game 907-908: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 16.921; NY Mets (Niese) 15.795
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over


Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.769; Colorado (Chatwood) 14.602
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over


Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.368; San Diego (Ross) 14.915
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under


Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.026; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.777
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Under


Game 915-916: LA Angels at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.247; Detroit (Smyly) 14.973
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over


Game 917-918: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 14.966; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.540
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Over


Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.274; Tampa Bay (Bedard) 13.243
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under


Game 921-922: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.233; Boston (Lackey) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under


Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Paulino) 14.196; Texas (Perez) 15.536
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over


Game 925-926: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.891; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.862
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over


Game 927-928: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 13.199; Oakland (Gray) 16.718
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-210); Under


Game 929-930: Seattle at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 15.133; Miami (Eovaldi) 13.617
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Dallas at Anaheim

The Ducks look to follow up their Game 1 win as they take on a Dallas team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games. Anaheim is the pick (-185) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-185). Here are all of today's playoff picks.


FRIDAY, APRIL 18
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST


Game 65-66: Detroit at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.112; Boston 13.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under


Game 67-68: Montreal at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.508; Tampa Bay 11.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-105); Over


Game 69-70: Dallas at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.253; Anaheim 12.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-185); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play FRI Braves -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won in the NHL on Thursday with the Sharks -$140/Penguins.

"Mr Chalk" had Np for Thursday in MLB.

For Friday in the NHL E&B like the Bruins -$200/Red Wings.

For Friday in MLB in the American league "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals -$150/Twins.

Ben lee is 3-1 +$79 for week twenty five 97-108-5 -$1770

"Mr Chalk" is 7-6 -$44 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[golden contender]

Friday card has the MLB Game of the Month with a 30-1 Pitching angle and an 11-0 Blowout system, there is also a 25-3 System side , a 100% MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs and an Early Perfect system NBA playoff release + NHL Game 2 Super system side. Thursday top play go 3-0. Free MLB Total below



On Friday the Free MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Atlanta at New York Mets game. Rotation numbers 907/908 at 7:10 eastern. This game fits a nice 82% totals system we use in game one of a series that plays to the under home certain home teams with a total that is 8 or less and are coming off a road dog win and are taking on an opponent off abroad favored loss. The Mets are home off a nice 6-3 road trip and a road win in Arizona. The Braves were favored and lost on Thursday in Philly. Atlanta has played under in 7 of 9 on the road and 9 of the last 11 as a road favorite with a total of 8 or less if they lost as a road favorite in their last game. They have Harang making his 2nd start against the Mets and he has been solid allowing just 2 runs in his last 11 innings against them. Harang has been a pleasant early surprise with 0.96 era and has allowed just a pair of earned run sin 18 innings. The Mets counter with J. Niese who has done well allowing just 2 runs in 13 home innings vs the Braves. Look for this game to stay under tonight. On Friday we have a Huge MLB Game of the Month leading the card. this game has a 30-1 Pitching angle And an 11-0 Blowout system. There is also a 25-3 Dominator system and 100% MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs per game + 100% NBA Playoff Payoff System in the Early NBA Game. We even have a Historical system in Game 2 of the NHL playoffs. Thursday top plays go 3-0, NY.Rangers, Yankees and Pirates. Message toJump on now and Roll your book like wholesale carpet tonight. For the free MLB Totals Play, take the Under in the Atlanta at NY. Mets game. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

MLB | NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
Play On – Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, good defensive catchers – allowing 0.5 or less SB’s/game on the season
92-64 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.0% | 42.9 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 20-10 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SAN DIEGO (3.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
Sides 17-16-0
+209

#904 Nationals +100 (.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Wacha / Gonzalez

#924 Royals RL (-1.5) +135 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Nolasco / Vargas

Totals 15-13-2
-521
#911/912 Over Padres 6.5 -110 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Cain / Ross

#915/916 Under Tigers 8.0 -125 (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Weaver / Smyly

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -130 over Baltimore Orioles
(System Record: 11-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 11-7

Hockey Crusher
Tampa Bay Lightning -110 over Montreal Canadiens
(Playoff Record: 1-1, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 92-74-1

Basketball Crusher
no play
(System Record: 78-8, lost last game)
Overall Record: 78-86-5

Soccer Crusher
Vila Nova + Luverdense UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 554-20, lost last game)
Overall Record: 554-475-81

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Cleveland Indians -125 over Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels +117 over Detroit Tigers
Chicago Cubs -104 over Cincy Reds


Hockey
Boston Bruins + Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5
Dallas Stars + Anaheim Ducks OVER 5.5
Montreal Canadiens + Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 5


Basketball
no play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five Hole Freddy
(2*) Nationals
(2*) Orioles
(5*) Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday Brandon Lang


20 Dimes - LA Angels +105 visiting the Detroit Tigers, 7:05 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Esparza (VSI)


MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
6 Unit Play. #926 Take Kansas City -135 over Minnesota (8:10p.m., Friday April 18)
(Game of the Month) If any team has revenge on their minds this weekend it will be the Kansas City Royals. The Minnesota Twins swept Kansas City Royals last weekend, outscoring the Royals 21-5 in a 3-game set at Target Field. The Royals are coming off a 3-game sweep on the road against the Astros so hopefully the momentum will come home with the Royals. Royals starter Jason Vargas takes the mound tonight for KC and he is 1-0 this season with an outstanding ERA of 1.64. If he can keep the Twins batters off balance tonight we should see the Royals take Game #1 of this weekend series. Minnesota is 4-10 in their last 14 road games and the Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games as a favorite. Minnesota is also 2-8 in their last 10 meetings in Kansas City.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports
5-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins (-115) over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 5-unit Game of the Week.

3-unit Play Take #910 Colorado Rockies (-145) over Philadelphia Phillies (8:40pm EST)

3-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays (+125) over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) If you've watched either of Justin Masterson's last two starts, you couldn't help but notice that something is off. He's walked eight batters over his those two outings and has given up six runs in each without making it to through the fifth inning. Even more concerning, his velocity is down almost 4mph and that is a huge red flag. Masterson could be dealing with an injury that hasn't been made public yet, and that is enough for us to take a close look at the Jays today. Toronto is 8-8 on the season so far after getting swept in a doubleheader versus the Twins yesterday. But I think they're flying a bit under the radar in the AL East after a miserable season in 2013. Most experts picked this Jays team to win the AL East at the beginning of last season, and they have virtually the same roster in 2014 where they are now being picked for last place. Drew Hutchison pitches for them today and I like what I've seen from him so far. In three starts he's sporting a 3.68 ERA and striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. He's also faced three of the tougher lineups in the AL in the Orioles, Yankees and Rays. Hutchison is the better pitcher right now and this price is more than generous as a result. Take Toronto.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #926 Kansas City (-140) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #926 Kansas City (-1.5, +145) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #903 St. Louis (-105) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #907 Atlanta (-105) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #910 Colorado (-145) over Philadelphia (8:40 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #911 San Francisco (-105) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #914 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, +115) over Arizona (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #917 Toronto (+130) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #919 N.Y. Yankees (-105) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #928 Oakland (-1.5, -105) over Houston (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #929 Seattle (+110) over Miami (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)

Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 L.A. Angels at Detroit (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.0 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler - MLB Notes

Cubs-Reds: Don't like PM Cubs games. Chilly and wind blowing in, so we'll see where they set that total. Both pens been awful, and Chapman about ready to return, and with Simon a relief pitcher for the most part, I can see taking the Cubs at +100 (that should tell you something right there) and perhaps the over, which may be a little low BECAUSE of the wind.

Washington-St. Louis: Awful for me to think Washington would hit last night, although is was more a case of Washington's pitchers simply walking the ballpark and committing tons of errors. As I said on the podcast the other night, those things tend to be cyclical, so it's tough even to take Gio here. He was lit by the Braves, and the Nationals pen is somewhat depleted. I could make a reasonable argument for the under here, since he's done well against STL in the past.

Milwaukee-Pittsburgh: Lohse obviously was a beast last time out, and the motivation is clearly with the Pirates after being swept in Milwuakee last week. My issue with Pittsburgh lately is they are the second coming of Atlanta, scoring mainly vie the long ball. Morton being the ground ball pitcher that he is, I would argue Pirates and under.

Mets-Braves: Because the Braves are so cheap, especially with Harang in beastmode, I'd be concerned here. Mets had a day off and the Braves had an emotional three game series w/the Phillies, including a rain out. The Mets may just win this one here.

Colorado-Philadelphia: Obvious travel issue for the Phillies, who's bats have gone quiet. I am not a huge fan of Chatwood yet, because he's not a ground ball pitcher, and not in Coors Field. However, the Rockies have seen Pettibone and the weather IS conducive to hitting, so this may be the over, but I would much prefer 10 to 10.5 so we'll wait that one out. Perhaps this COULD be one of the few times I lay the -1.5.

Padres-Giants: I don't get the flip to the Padres being the listed favorite overnight, but I haven't looked deep yet. I am not a big fan of Ross, but I have long felt Cain is over rated as well, and the Padres have seen plenty of him. The Padres bats have gone quiet, and IMO if they are going to win as the early move might suggest, I would think it stays under.

Dodgers-D-Backs: As I said on the podcast, most big dogs get scalped and this is certainly no exception since Arizona had been. Since Arizona was swept by the Dodgers and then the Mets, they may be thinking that because AS just saw Zach that they make some adjustments. Here's what I think. Two of the best hitting pitchers in baseball may mean this goes over. If it goes to 6.5 I may well take my chances, but if it did I doubt it would stay there long.

Angels-Tigers: Two teams I always seem to struggle to grasp, and obvious over reaction to the Tigers bats being woken up yesterday here. My first instinct is that although I am not a huge Weaver fan, all things being equal, to get the potential of the Angels and Weaver at that price you almost have to. I do know they've struggled against LHP, but it's Drew Smyly, not Denny McLain. Both pens suck (usually) and the weather isn't THAT bad, so if that total dropped to 7.5 there's the option of the over as well.

Toronto-Cleveland: Big love for Masterson but he's not been himself this year, and that's in part due to the DH the Jays plays and lost both (thank you) yesterday. I am simply not laying the "new" price on Cleveland, and not sure I could take Toronto either. That total has plummeted all the way to 7.5 in places, and that may be an over reaction a bit. If that IS the case and the line keeps moving, I could see taking the Toronto RL, but they've got no pen left (thank you again) either.

Yankees-Rays: Automatic to think about taking the under in any Tampa Bay home game. But, I don't trust either pitcher. One is going on 100 and the other couldn't stick with the Astros. Have to think NYY has the momentum after beating the sh*t out of Price last night, and the Rays seem to be in free fall. I would hate to start fading the Rays "streak" too late, but would almost have to take NYY here.

Baltimore-Boston: Always tough to take a team in the first game back (Boston) but it is Tillman and the always unpredictable John Lackey. Since we like the Orioles much better against right handed pitching and they're on a bit of a winning streak, I can see backing the Birds here.

White Sox-Texas: So, Texas starts hitting for two games and the White Sox stop hitting for two game and all of a sudden Perez is a -160 pitcher. Not a chance. Give me the White Sox RL and be done with it, even with Chicago playing last night and traveling. However, I do think they're are far better games. And if that total really is going to stay at 10, perhaps Texas is going to hit. Hate this game.

Twins-Royals: Those that know me know I would find a way to back the Twins here. Even after the DH, they are playing well, and that may over ride anything else. Royals in a first game back and did not exactly light up the scoreboard in Houston. I can see this one staying under 8.5 in the bigger park, and if that is the case perhaps the Twins RL, again. Might find something here.

Oakland-Houston: I totally get how good Sonny Gray is and late last year he made us money. And I totally get how Houston isn't hitting. But, at -200 that's a stretch, especially in what is projected as a low scoring game and in perhaps the biggest park with the most foul territory in the world. I can make a reasonable case for this staying under, because I do like Cosart.

Miami-Seattle: Don't forget that the Mariners don't get to use the DH in this park. Eovaldi CAN be good, but he CAN be awful, and I do like the Mariners better against RHP and they've probably got the better bullpen. I don't like Young and this game has already flipped from about a coin-toss to heavy Miami. They aren't usually THAT easy, but they can be. This game, as do most IL games, needs more attention than I can give it right now.

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Guaranteed picks

Yankees
Cubs
Cardinals
Padres
Diamondbacks +1.5

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Hondo

Cardinals

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Doc's Sports

5-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins (-115) over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 5-unit Game of the Week.
3-unit Play Take #910 Colorado Rockies (-145) over Philadelphia Phillies (8:40pm EST)
3-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays (+125) over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) If you've watched either of Justin Masterson's last two starts, you couldn't help but notice that something is off. He's walked eight batters over his those two outings and has given up six runs in each without making it to through the fifth inning. Even more concerning, his velocity is down almost 4mph and that is a huge red flag. Masterson could be dealing with an injury that hasn't been made public yet, and that is enough for us to take a close look at the Jays today. Toronto is 8-8 on the season so far after getting swept in a doubleheader versus the Twins yesterday. But I think they're flying a bit under the radar in the AL East after a miserable season in 2013. Most experts picked this Jays team to win the AL East at the beginning of last season, and they have virtually the same roster in 2014 where they are now being picked for last place. Drew Hutchison pitches for them today and I like what I've seen from him so far. In three starts he's sporting a 3.68 ERA and striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. He's also faced three of the tougher lineups in the AL in the Orioles, Yankees and Rays. Hutchison is the better pitcher right now and this price is more than generous as a result. Take Toronto.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

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Sean Murphy

10* Washinton Nationals

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Jimmy Boyd

Chicago WS

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Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

MLB Play of the Day - #924 Texas Rangers with Perez moneyline -150

Big edge here on the mound with the Rangers since Perez is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and Paulino of the Sox is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA. Paulino has been hammered his last 2 starts which is just what the doctor ordered for the struggling Rangers bats. Texas has been good at home while the South Siders have been bad on the road. Play Texas here as the play of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Friday, April 18

Detroit is in first year in Eastern Conference; they're 3-1 in their last four first round series, despite being lower-seeded team two of three years they won. Red Wings are 22-19 on road this season; they won three of four with Boston this season, winning last three games after Bruins won first meeting 4-1. Top-seed Boston is 31-10 at home- they lost five of their last seven games after clinching division- they're 4-1 in last five first round series.

Lightning won three of four vs Montreal this season, then lost Game 1 here in OT, with the Canadiens outshooting them 44-25; Habs are 4-1 in last four visits here, with five of last six series games staying under total. Tampa won four of last five games, but gave up five goals Wednesday, after giving up four in winning last four regular season games. Montreal won eight of last eleven games, five of seven on road. Lightning had 50-36 edge in faceoffs; both teams failed to score on two power plays each in Game 1.

Ducks won last five games after racing out to 4-0 lead in Game 1, then holding on for dear life; they're 31-11 at home- eight of their last eleven games overall went over total. Anaheim was 2-5 on power play, won faceoffs 46-37. Ducks lost four of last five games with Stars- six of last ten series games stayed under. Dallas is just 6-5 in last eleven games, with six of last eight games staying under the total; Stars were 1-5 with their power play chances.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Friday, April 18


Patrice Bergeron, Boston - Prob Fri

Bergeron is recovering from a lower-body injury and has participated in two consecutive practices. He is expected to be ready for the opening game of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Friday against the Red Wings.


Underdog Red Wings fare well versus Bruins

At +260 to win the series, the Detroit Red Wings might be one of the biggest longshots in the first round, but they have had great success versus the Boston Bruins in recent meetings.

In the previous eight meetings between the two Original Six franchises, the Red Wings have posted a 7-1 record. Take that with a grain of salt, however, as that mark stretches back to 2009 with no games played between the two in either 2010 and 2012.

But bettors looking for a dog can find a little more solace in the fact that the Wings were 3-1 in the 2013-14 season - their first as a member of the Eastern Conference.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

Title: Chase's 9* MLB GOOD WOOD

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Apr 18, 2014 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Money Line: -133 Cleveland Indians Play

This game has the 8-8 Jays at the 7-8 Indians. Justin Masterson is the Indians best pitcher and through 3 starts he has no wins and a 5.87 ERA. I expect a big game from Justin today as he is too talented not too. Indians team should be fully ready to go here today as they know this is a game they must have. Drew Hutchison is very young and talented but Masterson will be out pitching him today. This is another public play we are backing take the Indians to win for a 9* play.

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PAUL LEINER
500* Pirates -115
100* Redsox -130
50* Indians -135

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GOODFELLA
FREE PLAY
2:20 ET
FREE 2* on CHICAGO CUBS

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Intpicks

1* UNDER 7.5 Marlins/Mariners

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Greg Shaker

triple dime total of the week
Clevland/Toronto over

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Baseball33

USA: MLB
Tampa Bay Rays – New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays

USA: MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers – Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks +1

USA: MLB
Miami Marlins – Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners

USA: MLB
Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics -1.5

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Denver Money

1* Detroit Red Wings @ Boston Bruins over 5

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DOC NBA
8-unit
LA Clippers -7

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Cleveland Insider

MLB
5* Atlanta Braves -110 over the NY Mets
5* Texas Rangers -160 over the Chicago White Sox
5* Detroit Tigers -112 over the LA Angels
5* Pittsburgh Pirates -118 over the Milwaukee Brewers
5* Colorado Rockies -144 over the Philadelphia Phillies
5* Miami Marlins -120 over the Seattle Mariners
5* Washington Nationals -107 over the Saint Louis Cardinals

NHL
5* Boston Bruins -220 over the Detroit Red Wings
5* Anaheim Ducks -175 over the Dallas Stars

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James Jones

Mariners

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Joe Gavazzi - 3% Yankees


NY Yankees (Kuroda) at Tampa Bay Rays (-110) (Bedard) 7:10 ET 3* NYY (EVEN) We will follow team momentum in a pitching mismatch. The Yankees enter on a 5 game win streak, moving to 10-6 for the season. The Rays have lost 4 straight and have scored only 16 runs in going 3-7 in their last 10. If the bats don't produce, as was the case in last night's 10-2 loss to NYY, it is doubtful that TBay staff can plug the dyke. Three starting pitchers from the TBay rotation are now injured. Ergo, the recall of retread Bedard from AAA for this start! This journeyman has pitched for 5 different teams in the last 4 years. In his previous 2 seasons with Houston and Pittsburgh, Bedard worked 273 2/3 IP in 50 starts, rarely making it out of the 5th inning. In those 2 years, he has a 1.48 WHIP and 4.80 ERA. Expect little! Kuroda has been solid this season, working 18 2/3 IP with a 14/4 KBB. The only thing reducing this rating is a poor history vs. the Rays, in which he has a 7.36 ERA in 5 starts.

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks

​5 – 500* MLB

Boston -135
Milwaukee +107
New York Yankees +102
Oakland -210
​LA Dodgers -178​

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS:

Free Play: Colorado -145 vs Phillies


Friday 4/18 Service Plays


MLB


Cleveland -150


Detroit/Angels OVER 7.5


Atlanta RL -1.5 +155

LA Dodgers RL -1.5 +115

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Betting As A Business

MLB (10:10 et)

Arizona (Miley) -145 / LA Dodgers (Greinke) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Arizona)

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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

Milwaukee Brewers ML

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spartan | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 926 KAN (-141) vs 925 MIN

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

New York Yankees -101 over the Tampa Bay Rays (Moneyline Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:10 PM EST

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Marc Lawrence LTS:
3* Royals with Vargas (-145) vs. Nolasco

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Bryan Leonard

gow on wash nationals

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Sportsjunkies

Padres

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Goodfella

2* CLE over 7.5
2* ATL over 7

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Ben Burns
10* Under Ducks

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Tony Stoffo Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Over -- 5 units
NHL PLAYOFFS:




Pick Analysis:
GM #2 Montreal at Tampa Bay


With the way both of these teams skated in game #1 sure makes for a higher scoring game and a highly recommended play on the over here this evening.


Over is 3-0-1 in Canadiens last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.


Over is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.


Over is 4-1-2 in Lightning last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.


Over this posted total the play here.

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Gordon24 -
Marlins

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BookieMonster POD
NY Yankees +100

BookieMonster Money Generator Plays
St. Louis Cards +100
Boston Redsox -125
Detroit tigers -115

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The Shadow Sports Syndicate


MLB: Kansas City -1

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AllSportsC​apper Plays of the day 04/18


930 MLB 30* Miami Marlins -120
925 MLB 30* Minnesota Twins @ KC Royals Over 7.5 -115
69 NHL 10* Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks over 5.5 100
68 NHL 20* Tampa Bay Lightning -110
904 MLB 30* Washington Nationals -108
911 MLB 20* San Francisco Giants -106

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 4/18

MLB Baseball



Texas Rangers -155 over the Chicago White Sox
(Money Line Bet)
Overall Record: 242-220


(System Record: 242-13, Won last 3 games)

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MYSYSTEMPICKS

TB Rays -107 (3 u)

LA Angels +105 (2 u)

Texas Rangers RL-1.5 +130 (1.5 u)

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Dave Cokin - MLB


Miami -112




Detroit -112

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Vegas Runner - NHL


TBAY -115....via the Canadian

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Sammy P
GOM tonight:
Miami/Seattle UNDER 7.5
NHL -
Dallas Stars


And UNDER 5.5

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cokin

baseball giants

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maddux MLB

Washington
Tampa
Boston
Miami

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Steve Stevens

Dodgers ML

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Derek Hayes - 1* Indians -143

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle

All regular 1 Unit plays tonight

NHL Dallas/Anaheim Under 5.5/-120
NHL OPINION ONLY LEAN Tampa Bay Lightening -115
MLB Baltimore Orioles (Tillman/Action) +125
MLB Tampa Bay Rays (Action) -105
MLB NY Yankees/Tampa Bay (Kuroda/Bedard) Over 7/-120
MLB Cleveland/Toronto (Masterson/Hutchinson) Over 7.5/-125
MLB Kansas City Royals (Action/Vargas) -145
MLB Colorado Rockies (Pettibone/Chatwood) -145
MLB Los Angeles Dodgers (Action/Miley) -175\
MLB NY Mets/Atlanta (Niese/Harang) Over 7

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THE FACTSMAN

STL Cardinals ML

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DAVE ESSLER

Braves vs Mets – Over 7

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Joe Gavazzi MLB

Friday, April 18, 2014

MLB

Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) (Morton) 7:05 ET

3% Pittsburgh (-115)

It aint no fun when the rabbit got the gun! After dominating the Pirates for several seasons, Milwaukee spent much of the 2013 season looking up at Pittsburgh in the standings. This year, however, the hunter has become the hunted. Milwaukee is off to an 11-5 start, including 6-1 on the road. This includes a 3-0 sweep of the Pirates last week in Milwaukee, when the Bucs could muster just 5 total runs. Trailing Milwaukee by 4 games at the start of this weekend’s series, the Buc bats boomed in the role of hunter. In Thursday’s 11-2 victory, Pittsburgh smacked 4 HR to boost their league leading total to 23 for the season. Revenge continues today in a pitching matchup that saw Morton lose a 4-1 decision to Lohse last week in Milwaukee. Not that Morton pitched poorly, allowing 2 ER in 7 IP. Lohse, however, was outstanding allowing just 4 hits with a 9/0 KBB in working 8 2/3 IP of that victory. In so doing, it improved the record of Lohse for the year to 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA. Replicating that result would be tough for Lohse, whose lifetime numbers rarely have included an outing such as that. Far prefer Morton, whose sinker ball has worked to near perfection when pitching at PNC Park of late. In fact, in his most recent 6 home starts, Morton has a 1.82 ERA. Pittsburgh and Morton get their revenge.



Philadelphia Phillies (Pettibone) at Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) (-145) 8:40 ET

3% Colorado (-145)

In recent years, the Phillies were among the premier teams in the NL. They dominated the Rockies with a 30-9 series record. That figures to change this season, especially on this field, as the Phillies struggle to reach the breakeven point. In the lone start for Pettibone this season, he faced a cold hitting Miami team, allowing 8 hits and 2 runs in 5 IP in a no-decision. Now, however, he must take his act on the road, more specifically at a site where he did not succeed. In 2013, Pettibone had a 5.59 road ERA. He lasted just 3 IP of his lone start from this mound, allowing 6 ER and 10 hits. The Rockies return home from a road trip which ended with a 2-2 series split at San Diego, but resulted in a 4-7 road record for the year. This is a team groomed for the offensive capabilities of their home park. True to form, Colorado is 4-2 at Coors this season, averaging 7.5 runs with a .354 BA. Chatwood had a decent outing against San Fran, working 6 IP allowing 4 runs on 6 hits with a promising 5/0 KBB. In a pair of starts vs. the Phillies, Chatwood has a 3.60 ERA. Must favor the Rockies at home against the visiting pitcher who will have little confidence from this mound.



Arizona Diamondbacks (Miley) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R +125) 10:10 ET

5% LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R +125)

Must continue to fade Arizona with their 4-14 record and 6 game losing streak. Those defeats all came at home in games where they were outscored 43-16, losing 5/6 by 3 or more runs. Miley does not appear to be the answer. For the season, Miley is 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA. In a pair of starts against LAD, Miley is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA. The Dodgers have won all 5 meetings vs. Arizona this season, outscoring them 32-17 with every victory by 2 or more runs. Greinke has been outstanding again this season, winning all 3 starts with a 2.76 ERA. His 4 most recent starts against Arizona have resulted in a record of 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA. Run line players take note, 13/14 Arizona losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. Last year, 71/95 LAD victories were by 2 or more runs. This year, 7/10 Dodger wins have come by 2 or more runs. Play the run line in this pitching mismatch against a flailing Arizona team.



NY Yankees (Kuroda) at Tampa Bay Rays (-110) (Bedard) 7:10 ET

4% NYY (EVEN)

We will follow team momentum in a pitching mismatch. The Yankees enter on a 5 game win streak, moving to 10-6 for the season. The Rays have lost 4 straight and have scored only 16 runs in going 3-7 in their last 10. If the bats don’t produce, as was the case in last night’s 10-2 loss to NYY, it is doubtful that TBay staff can plug the dyke. Three starting pitchers from the TBay rotation are now injured. Ergo, the recall of retread Bedard from AAA for this start! This journeyman has pitched for 5 different teams in the last 4 years. In his previous 2 seasons with Houston and Pittsburgh, Bedard worked 273 2/3 IP in 50 starts, rarely making it out of the 5th inning. In those 2 years, he has a 1.48 WHIP and 4.80 ERA. Expect little! Kuroda has been solid this season, working 18 2/3 IP with a 14/4 KBB. The only thing reducing this rating is a poor history vs. the Rays, in which he has a 7.36 ERA in 5 starts.



Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) at Kansas City Royals (Vargas) (-135) 8:10

3% Kansas City (-135)

Not buying the Minnesota revival which sees the Twins enter on a 5-1 streak, including a DH sweep of Toronto last night by a combined score of 16-5. Now, the Twins must travel on the heels of a 12 hour day. Nor am I buying the recent start of Nolasco in which he worked 8 IP, allowing 1 run on 5 hits of a 7-1 victory. More telling are his year-to-date numbers in which he has posted a 5.50 ERA, allowing 29 BR in 18 IP. Last year, the Royals took 15/19 from Minnesota in their season series. Last weekend, however, the Twins shocked the Royals with a 3-0 sweep, outscoring them 21-5. Since that time, KC went on to sweep Houston (3-0) outscoring the Astros 15-7. Now, they return home for a measure of revenge. Note that in the previous 5 games, the KC starters have recorded a 1.80 ERA. Expect Vargas to extract revenge after working 7 IP and allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Twins. Vargas has worked 7 or more innings in each of 3 starts with a 1.64 ERA. KC gets revenge in the 1st of three games this weekend.



Houston Astros (Cosart) at Oakland A’s (Gray) (-1 ½ R, EVEN) 10:00 ET

3% Oakland (-1 ½ R, EVEN)

The only thing keeping this from Top Play status is that Cosart has a decent 4.00 ERA and has allowed just 2 runs in 13 IP vs. Oakland. Though the Astros have plenty of talent in the farm system, it does not figure to translate into victories this season. Houston enters on a 4 game losing streak, scoring just 7 times with a .185 BA. Simply cannot expect that to improve much against the sterling slants of the Oakland rotation. Last year, Oakland won 15/19 from Houston with a 2.84 ERA and 2.77 BA. Gray has been outstanding in a trio of starts with a 0.95 ERA, posting 19 Ks in 19 IP. Gray has been virtually unhittable from this mound, where in 8 starts, Gray has a 1.71 ERA. This year, 9/11 Houston losses have come by 2 or more runs. A continuation of the trend that saw 75/111 Houston defeats last year by 2 or more runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

winyourwagers
Over in The Indians Game