5-3-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Warriors at Clippers

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 209.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Golden State Warriors found just enough in themselves at home to force a Game 7 but might not have a full compliment of weapons by the time they get there. The Warriors hope center Jermaine O’Neal, who suffered a sprained right knee in the second quarter of Game 6, will be able to go when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers for Game 7 on Saturday. The Clippers had some trouble adjusting to a tightly-called Game 6 and Blake Griffin fouled out late.

Golden State is already without starting center Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib and has been using a smaller lineup with David Lee in the middle and O’Neal coming off the bench while Draymond Green takes on a bigger role guarding Griffin. O’Neal was not happy about the play that knocked him out of the game, telling USA Today, “It’s just a dirty play, to be quite honest. I mean, I’m not going to go try to dive into somebody’s legs. It wasn’t a scramble for the ball.” The Warriors gave more time to Marreese Speights off the bench when O’Neal went down and the veteran big man responded with 12 points and six rebounds.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as big as 7.5-point favorites and were bet down to -7. The total opened 209.5.

INJURY REPORT: Warriors - J. O'Neal (Ques. - Knee). Clippers - H.Turkoglu (Ques. - Back)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "With everything that has surrounded the Clippers during this series, I see them coming up extremely focused to close this series out. So far we are seeing 65 percent of the action backing the Clippers to win outright, while the 6.5-point spread is seeing good two-way action." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Clippers benefited from an emotionally-charged home crowd in Game 5 and it obviously affected the officials as Los Angeles had a 41-to-19 free-throw edge in their 113-103 win. The whistle was more balanced on the road in Game 6 as the Warriors held a 37-to-33 free-throw edge in their 100-99 victory. It will be interesting to see if the Clippers can use a strong home-court edge to once again influence the officials in Game 7 Saturday night. - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Stephen Curry had a lot of questions to answer after a Game 5 loss in which he turned the ball over eight time and finished with 10 field-goal attempts. The All-Star guard was noticeably more aggressive in Game 6 and attempted 12 shots in the first quarter alone to keep his team in the game before Green, Speights and David Lee started to provide some support. Lee and Green both battled foul trouble, with Lee drawing his sixth early in the fourth quarter, but still managed to play strong defense on Griffin (8-of-24) and win the scrambles down low. “You know, it’s a battle,” Green told reporters. “We knew that coming into the series. For the last two years, as long as I’ve been here, it’s been a battle every time we played this team, and it’s grown into a rivalry.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Chris Paul is banged up with right hamstring and left hand issues and battled foul trouble throughout Game 6, finishing with nine points, eight assists, four turnovers and five fouls. “(Paul) is dealing with a lot of stuff, but, listen, he’s on the floor and Golden State doesn’t care, bottom line,” coach Doc Rivers said. “He does have injuries, and there is no doubt about that. I’m sure they have some too, but, listen, I think once you’re on the floor, you’re on the floor.” Los Angeles got another big game from DeAndre Jordan on Thursday with nine points, 19 rebounds and four blocks and Matt Barnes stepped up with a double-double, but the off nights from Griffin and Paul kept the Clippers from getting over the hump in the 100-99 setback.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles.
* Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
* Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 67 percent of action is on Golden State while 67 percent is on the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

Kentucky Derby Winner - California Chrome

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella


Game: Winner at Non Opponent May 3 2014 6:20PM
Prediction: Winner
Reason: Just like former Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2010) and Super Saver (2011), Danza (#4) will be making his 3rd start of his 3 year old season in the Kentucky Derby. Also like Super Saver, Danza is trainer by Todd Pletcher and made his previous start in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I), but while Super Saver finished 3rd, Danza won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths.


Danza broke his maiden in his career debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then immediately jumped into the Saratoga Special, a Grade II stakes race at Saratoga. That was a 6 furlong sprint and he closed fast to finished 3rd, beaten by less than a length by the speedy Corfu. After that race, he was put on the shelf for an 8 month layoff and returned this spring in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in Miami. That was just a prep at 7 furlongs and then Pletcher moved him into his first 2 turn route race in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.


Even though it was Danza's first route, he won the 1 1/8 mile race by more than 4 lengths. Interestingly, he was only .13 seconds slower than the stake race run the race before that same day that was won by multiple-grade I stake winner, Will Take Charge. Will Take Charge is an older 4 year old, who was one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup Classic (Grade I). The runner up to Will Take Charge was Revolutionary, who you may know from finishing 3rd in last year's Kentucky Derby to Orb!


It was no surprise that Danza won the 1 1/8 Arkansas Derby, as his 2 siblings are winners at even longer distances, with his brother, Consider Yourself, winning at 1 3/8 miles in a graded stakes in Britian and his other brother winning this year's Tokoyo Derby at Santa Anita (Southern California) at 1 1/2 miles- both of those wins are longer distances than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. With Danza fresh, and rounding into form for a former Derby-winning trainer like Todd Pletcher, we'll take the BIG PRICE on him this Saturday!


The Play: DANZA (#4) to Win & Place.


Bonus Exactas:
5-Horse Exacta BOX: 4-5-11-16-19
Using Danza (#4), California Chrome (#5), Dance with Fate (#12), Commanding Curve (#17) and Wicked Strong (#20)
NOTE: This is a $20 ticket for a $1 Exacta Box


Exacta Key: Play #4 Danza for first and second with ALL horses (#4 with ALL & ALL with #4)
Note: These are $19 Exacta Keys for a $1 ticket, total cost is $38 for first and second place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Pacers -6
Orioles -120
Royals +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- This is Arrieta's first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts LY.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Roark is 1-0, 1.23 in his last three.
-- Teheran is 1-0, 0.38 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 0.35 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 2-0, 1.91 in six starts this season.
-- Morales is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. Mejia is 3-0, 3.49 in five starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.

-- Tanaka is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 3-0, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 0.76 in his last five starts LY. Keuchel is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Carroll allowed two runs in 7.1 IP in winning his MLB debut.
-- Richards is 2-0, 2.53 in five starts this season. Harrison allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.

-- Dickey is 1-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Wacha is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 5.24 in four starts this season. Turner allowed five runs in six IP in his first '14 start, before going on DL.
-- Vogelsong is 0-1, 8.44 in his two road starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-5, 5.31 in his first six starts.

-- Rays lost last four Odorizzi starts (0-2, 9.00).
-- Lester is 0-2, 9.26 in his last couple starts. Oakland is 0-4 when Milone starts (0-2, 5.70).
-- Correia is 0-3, 9.43 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 0-1, 7.31 in his last five starts.
-- Smyly is 0-1, 6.00 in two starts this season. Duffy is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.31 in his last four starts LY.

-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.14 in his last five starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wacha 1-6; Arrieta 0-0
-- Roark 1-5; Burnett 1-6
-- Vogelsong 1-5; Teheran 1-6
-- Maholm 1-4; Turner 1-1
-- Gallardo 2-6; Cueto 1-6
-- Mejia 0-5; Morales 1-5
-- McCarthy 2-6; Kennedy 2-6

-- Odorizzi 0-5; Tanaka 1-5
-- Milone 2-4; Lester 1-6
-- Chen 1-5; Correia 0-5
-- Iwakuma 0-0; Keuchel 1-5
-- Carroll 0-1; Masterson 2-6
-- Smyly 1-2; Duffy 0-0
-- Harrison 0-1; Richards 0-5

-- Dickey 1-6; Liriano 3-6

Totals
-- Nine of last twelve games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Nine of twelve Washington road games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in San Diego's last seven home games.

-- Four of last six Pittsburgh home games stayed under.

-- Eight of last twelve Bronx home games stayed under; 12 of last 15Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Five of last six White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last nine games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Five of Kansas City's last six home games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore road games went over.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.
-- Nine of twelve Angel home games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee won 12 of its 15 road games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 15 road games. Miami won six of its last seven home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Arizona won its last three road games.


-- A's won 12 of their 17 road games.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
-- Mariners won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.

Cold teams
-- St Louis lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last five home games.
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games.
-- Braves lost last four games, but won eight of last ten at home.
-- Mets lost last two nights, giving up 17 runs.
-- Padres lost eight of their last twelve games.

-- Pirates lost ten of their last 13 games. Toronto lost seven of its last nine.

-- Bronx lost its last three games, outscored 20-10.
-- Indians lost six of last seven games, but won five of last six at home. White Sox are 5-9 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
-- Kansas City is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fifteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- StL-Chi-- Three of four Vanover games went over total.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Last four Gonzalez games went over total.
-- SF-Atl-- Three of four Fagan games stayed under total.
-- LA-Mia-- All five Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Mil-Cin-- Road team won all six Dimuro games; under is 3-1-1 in last five.
-- NY-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Wolf games.

-- TB-NY-- All five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- A's-Bos-- Road teams won three of four Reyburn games.
-- Blt-Minn-- Underdogs won three of last five Nelson games.
-- Sea-Hst-- Underdogs won four of six Hoye games.
-- Chi-Cle-- Underdogs won three of four Guccione games.
-- Det-KC-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over.
-- Tex-LA-- All three LBarrett games went over the total.

-- Tor-Pitt-- Underdogs won three of last four Hamari games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy Soccer Sunday 8:00 am.....7 Unit Play


FRANCE - LIGUE 1 - May 04 - - AS SAINT ETIENNE -150

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Today's MLB Picks

NY Mets at Colorado

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Mets look to break through with a win today and come into the contest carrying a 4-0 record in Jenrry Mejia's last 4 starts as an underdog. New York is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115). Here are all of today's picks.


SATURDAY, MAY 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 16.851; Cubs (Arrieta) 15.418
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); N/A


Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 16.002; Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.795
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Over


Game 955-956: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.011; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.151
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Under


Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Maholm) 16.123; Miami (Turner) 14.571
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over


Game 959-960 Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.807; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.310
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Under


Game 961-962: NY Mets at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 16.297; Colorado (Morales) 15.501
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over


Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 13.858; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.402
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Over


Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.147; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 14.209
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-205); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+175); Under


Game 967-968: Oakland at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 15.364; Boston (Lester) 16.871
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Under


Game 969-970: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 13.677; Minnesota (Correia) 14.748
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over


Game 971-972: Seattle at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.392; Houston (Keuchel) 13.915
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over


Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 15.385; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.414
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+140); Under


Game 975-976: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 16.586; Kansas City (Duffy) 14.670
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under


Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.572; LA Angels (Richards) 14.744
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over


Game 979-980: Toronto at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.918; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 16.302
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Golden State at LA Clippers

The Clippers look to clinch the series tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against the Warriors in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.


SATURDAY, MAY 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 537-538: Atlanta at Indiana (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.557; Indiana 125.169
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 185
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6); Under


Game 541-542: Memphis at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.347; Oklahoma City 125.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 185
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+9); Over


Game 543-544: Golden State at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 119.793; LA Clippers 130.418
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at Anaheim

The Kings open up their series with Anaheim tonight and come into the contest with an 11-5 record in their last 16 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.


SATURDAY, MAY 3
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 9-10: Montreal at Boston (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.209; Boston 12.544
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under


Game 7-8: Los Angeles at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.803; Anaheim 11.997
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Marlins +105

Orioles -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play SAT Over the total 208 1/2 GState/Clippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

10* Arizona +127

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 7 betting trends: Home teams dominate SU and ATS
By ANDREW AVERY

Saturday is a special day in the NBA as it will be the first day in league history when three Game 7's will be played in the same day.

We asked Covers Expert Marc Lawrence for some of his best Game 7 stats and he provided some great trends which are applicable to Saturday's trio of matchups.

The action tips off in Indiana as the No. 1-seeded Pacers host the Atlanta Hawks. As history can tell us, the Pacers may very well win the game straight up as No. 1 seeds are 14-3 SU, but against the spread is a different story. Teams ranked No. 1 are a paltry 7-9-1 ATS in those Game 7's. The Pacers are currently 6.5-point home faves Saturday.

Home teams have been a force in Game 7's. Since 1992, the home team is a dominant 42-12 SU and 32-20-2 ATS in Game 7's. That ATS clip is good for a respectable 61.5 percent winning clip. Along with the Pacers, the other home teams are the Oklahoma City Thunder (9-point faves over the Memphis Grizzlies) and the Los Angeles Clippers (7-point faves over the Golden State Warriors).

Lawrence also digs up a good stat about home teams coming off a loss, a category which the Los Angeles Clippers fall under. Coming off defeat, the home team is a stellar 30-7 SU and 22-13-2 ATS (62.8 percent). The Clippers dropped Game 6 100-99 in Oakland and now host the Warriors in the series finale Saturday night.

The news gets better for Saturday's home teams, however. In Round one, the home team is 10-4 SU and ATS, but a sparkling 6-0 SU and ATS if the home team's winning percentage is .647 or better. All three of the Game 7 home teams owned better winning percentages than .647 with the Pacers at .683, the Clippers at .695 and the Thunder owning a .720 winning percentage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Marlins stay hot

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Saturday's MLB betting action:

Miami Vice

A four-run seventh inning helped the suddenly-hot Miami Marlins fend off a late charge by the Los Angeles Dodgers and seal the 6-3 Marlins' victory Friday. The win extended the Marlins winning streak to four games and improved their record to 15-14. The Marlins entered Friday's game fresh off a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves and have outscored the oppositions 29-10 during their streak.

Dog Days of Spring

Underdogs put up an impressive 10-5 record in Friday's action with away dogs going 7-4 and home dogs going 3-1. Saturday sees four home dogs in action as the Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins and Houston Astros all the play the role of home dog on Saturday's board.

Special Brew

At 21-9, the Milwaukee Brewers own the top record in the bigs, but they've really put together something special on the road. With Friday's 2-0 win in Cincinnati, the Brew Crew improved to a sensational 12-3 record away from Miller Park. They'll try to make it 13-3 at the Great American Bll Park as Yovani Gallardo is matched up with Johnny Cueto.

Pitching Notes

* New York Mets hurler Jenrry Mejia will take the bump after what was easily his worst performance of the season. Mejia was batted around for six earned runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings of work against the Marlins, but did not factor in the 7-6 no-decision. Mejia gets the ball in Denver to face the Colorado Rockies Saturday evening. Mejia and the Mets are +124 dogs at Coors Field Saturday.

* The Boston Red Sox have been a pretty good bet when Jon Lester takes the mound against the Oakland A's at Fenway Park. The BoSox are 5-0 in Lester's last five turn versus the A's at home. The Sox are currently a -140 home fave with Tom Milone getting the ball for the visiting Athletics.

Hitting Notes

* Chicago Cubs 1B Anthony Rizzo paced the Cubs to a 6-5 win over the St. Louis Cardinals Friday. Rizzo went 2-for-3 with his fifth homer of the season and three RBIs to extend his average to .295 on the campaign. The slugger now has a pair of homers and six RBIs versus the Red Birds this season.

* Across the Windy City, White Sox 1B Jose Abreu belted his MLB-leading 11th homer in Friday's 12-5 loss to the Indians. Three of his 11 dingers have come against the Indians, but he's gone 0-for-2 with one walk in his three plate appearances versus Saturday's starter, Justin Masterson.

Total Streaks

San Francisco Giants (0-3 O/U): The San Francisco Giants are 14-14-1 O/U on the season but some fantastic pitching has fueled an impressive run of Unders in three-straight ball games. The Giants defeated the San Diego Padres 6-0 and 3-2, before nipping the Atlanta Braves 2-1 Friday to put together the 0-3 Under streak. A pretty good Under pitcher in his own right takes the mound as Ryan Vogelsong (on a personal three-game Under streak) takes the bump against the Braves.

Prop of the Day

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the Majors with seven extra-inning games on the season. They are currently +725 to need extra baseball in Saturday's game against the Miami Marlins, who have played in three extra inning games this season. The Dodgers made a late push in Friday's loss by scoring a pair of runs in the eighth and a solo run in the ninth.

Injury Watch

Colorado Rockies LF Carlos Gonzalez has a left index finger contusion which kept him out of Friday's 10-3 hammering of the New York Mets. According to the Denver Post, the star is "confident" that he'll return to the Rockies' lineup for Saturday's game. Gonzalez is batting .245 with six homers and 19 RBIs so far this season.

Weather Watch

* Forecasts are calling for windy and potentially-wet conditions when the White Sox and Indians play at Progressive Field Saturday. Forecasts calling for a 40 percent chance of showers this afternoon and leading up to game time, but that will dwindle down to a 10 percent chance as the game progresses. Wind will whip across Progressive Field from left field to right field at 22 mph.

* Wind will blow out at PNC Park as the Toronto Blue Jays try to bounce back from a 6-5 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday night. Wind is expected to blow out to left-center field at 14 mph for Saturday's game.

Umpire Stat of the Day

The road team is 6-1 in Todd Tichenor's last seven games behind home plate. Tichenor will be calling balls and strikes in Kansas City as the Royals host the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are currently -108 road faves.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:59 a.m. ET Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, May 3

Pacers are now 9-12 in last 21 games, 9-27-1 against spread in last 37, as they head home for Game 7, in series where road team won four of six games. Indiana is 5-5 vs Atlanta this season, 2-3 here. Hawks won nine of last fourteen games. George was only 7-18 from floor in Game 4, but was 9-10 on line- he is Pacers' barometer, and Indiana was +19 when he was on court. Hawks' bench is 38-100 from floor in last four games, and was combined -42 last game. Pacers shortened rotation last game,.and it worked. Four of last five series games stayed under total.

Zach Randolph is suspended for Game 7, which hurts Memphis. Four of last five Griz-Thunder games went OT, after OC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at half lost four of six series games. four of last five games went over total. OC is 41-138 from arc in last five games, but shot 49% from floor last game, after shooting under 40% from floor in previous four games- seven of their last ten games went over. Key for OC is finding third scoring option; Jackson scored 16 in 29:00 in Game 6; they'll need a similar effort from him or another sub to win here. Visiting team won four of last five games in series.

Clippers took 73 3's in three series wins, 88 in three losses; they'll need to attack basket more in home arena to win series that is overflowing in subplots, on both sides. Jordan took only three shots in Game 6 loss, after he had 25 points, 18 boards in Game 5, after going scoreless in Game 4. Clippers won 10 of last 16 games, with 12 of those 16 going over total. Warriors won eight of last 13 games overall; under is 49-37 in their games this year, 25-19 on road. Curry had 24 in Game 6, after he was held to 17 in Game 5 after having 33 in Game 4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, May 3

Montreal won seven of last eight games with Boston; they're 5-0 in playoffs this spring, with three of five games on road. Habs won four of last five games here; they're 28-16 on the road- over is 3-0-2 in their playoff games. Boston rallied from down 2-0 to tie Game 1 with 1:58 to play, then outshot Montreal 14-6 in first OT but couldn't light lamp. Bruins lost Game 1 in Detroit series, then won four straight, but they only killed one of three penalties in Game 1.

Anaheim won last four games with LA this season, after losing first meeting 3-2 in SO; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Ducks are 33-11 at home this season; they've been off for six days since beating Dallas in six games. LA had emotional Game 7 win in San Jose Wednesday; over was 5-1-1 in that series, with Kings allowing five goals in last four games- they gave up 17 in first three games. LA lost three of last four visits here; survivor of this series benefits in lack of travel in this series, with teams less than hour apart.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2 STAR SELECTION: (537) Atlanta Hawks +6.5
(Risking $220 to win $200)

1 STAR SELECTION: (959) Milwaukee Brewers +$130
(Risking $100 to win $130)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (973) Chicago White Sox +$135
(Risking $100 to win $135)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (979) Toronto Blue Jays +$106
(Risking $100 to win $106)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (977) Texas Rangers +$125
(Risking $100 to win $125)
(Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Warriors +7
100* Orioles / Twins Over 8.5
50* Mariners -145

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Jeff Clement

8 Units Yankees -215

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Piesen: 4-Danza, 15-Tapiture, 5-California Chrome, 1-Vicar's in Trouble

Jim Hurley: 16-Intense Holiday, 5-California Chrome, 19-Ride on Curlin, 14-Medal Count

John Conte: 16-Intense Holiday, 13-Chitu, 10-Wildcat Red, 20-Wicked Strong, 4-Danza

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Battaglia - Derby

1 #8-2-7
2 #1-5-7 Best Bet #1 No surrender
3 #1-8-10
4 #3-10-5
5 #7-2-10 Best Bet #7 Thundergram
6 #9-3-1
7 #3-5-7
8 #2-8-10
9 #10-11-6
10 #1-5-7 Best Bet #1 Wise Dan
11 #20-12-4-16
12 #7-6-4
13 #8-10-1-11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

Kentucky Derby Picks
20 w/p/s – Wicked Strong
10 w/p/s – Candy Boy
2 Exacta Wheel Key #20 with the 5-10-16-18-19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DDLohaus analyzes the Kentucky Derby

Happy Spring Everyone!

I went through all my data and charts and narrowed my selections to the following four horses…listen, California Chrome checks all the boxes and is a legit favorite but there is no way I will take short odds in this race…with that said I am going to get right to it…

Samraat: Honest horse who really hasn’t done anything wrong; last showed his grit; home track (Aqu) and distance a bit of a question but I think this guy is worth a play…

Wildcat Red: Like his breeding and think he will be OK stretching out; ran second to Constitution who would be a solid contender here; must admit I am puzzled by all the rider changes but I am willing to give him a shot

Chitu: Has been handling the added distance each race without issue and I think he will use his speed to get position and get first run turning for home

Tapiture: Willing to throw out last and just missed against a potential winner (Hopportunity). Has won here before.

The Bets:

$20W Chitu
$15W Samraat
$5 WPS Tapiture/Wildcard Red
$2ExBX Chitu/Samraat/Tapiture/Wildcard Red
$1TriBX Chitu/Samraat/Tapiture/Wildcat Red

Total: $137.00
Good Luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BASEBALL33

USA: MLB
Miami Marlins – Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers

USA: MLB
Atlanta Braves – San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves -1

[golden contender]

Saturday card has 3 Big NBA Plays, one is the 6* 100% Totals System and a 5* Perfect system that dates to 1991 and is a top play side. In MLB Another Big Perfect system dog similar to the Texas Play last night. We also have the Kentucky Derby analysis. Free MLB Totals System below.

On Saturday the free MLB Totals system is on the over in the Detroit at Kansas City game. Rotation numbers 975/976 at 7:10 eastern. This game fits a solid totals system that has flown over 15 of 20 and every time the total is more than 8 runs. The system applies to home teams like the Royals that are off a home favored loss at -140 or higher by 5 or more runs, if they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits in a game where the total was 8 or less, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs that had 10 or more hits. These games average over 10 runs. KC has gone over in 6 of 8 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Detroit has averaged over 6 runs per game the past week. We have 2 pitchers here in Smyly for the Tigers and Duddy fort he Royals that wont bring back memories of Seaver and Carlton. Duffy makes his first start and the Royals have an elevated 5.45 Home bullpen Era. The Tigers Smyly has an era around 6 on the road. Look for a higher scoring game posting over the total tonight. On Saturday we have 3 Big NBA System Plays, the lead is a 6* Game 7 specific totals system that is 100% and a 5* NBA Power system that has not lost going as far back as 1991. In MLB The Lead play is a 100% Dog system that has won 11 straight, and is similar to last nights Dog win on Texas. We also have a Solid analysis in the 140th Kentucky Derby. Jump on Now and get it all. For the free Play take the over in the Detroit at Kansas City game. GC

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Guaranteed Picks
Braves,
Grizzlies,
Warriors

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exclusive Sports -
Pacers,
Over Thunder,
Over Clippers

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Cleveland Insider (23-16-3 +4.45 L11D)

NBA
5* Indiana Pacers ML -280 over the Atlanta Hawks
5* Indiana Pacers -6 over the Atlanta Hawks

MLB
5* LA Angels -135 over the Texas Rangers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Banks


Best bet
#962 8:10 colorado rockies-130 morales





mlb


#968 1:35 boston red sox-140 lester


#974 6:05 cleveland indians-167 masterson


#975 7:10 detroit tigers-108 smyly





nba


#541 8:00 memphis grizzlies+9

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Diamond Dog Sports
NBA
#537/538 Under Pacers: 186.0 -105 (2.5*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 over Toronto Blue Jays
(System Record: 19-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 19-13

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings +119 over Anaheim Ducks
(Playoff Record: 11-3, won last 4 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 102-78-2

Basketball Crusher
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 over OKC
(Playoff Record: 7-4-2, won last 2 games)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 84-90-7

Soccer Crusher
Colon + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 565-20, won last 4 game and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 565-477-83

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Minnesota Twins + Baltimore Orioles OVER 9
Miami Marlins +103 over LA Dodgers
Kansas City Royals -105 over Detroit


Hockey
Boston Bruins + Montreal Canadiens OVER 5
Los Angeles Kings + Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5
Boston Bruins -193 over Montreal


Basketball
Golden State Warriors +7 over LA Clippers
Atlanta Hawks +6 over Indiana Pacers
Oklahoma City Thunder + Memphis Grizzlies OVER 185

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 5/3

3-unit Play Take #968 Boston Red Sox (-140) over Oakland A's (1:35pm EST)


3-unit Play Take #972 Houston Astros (+115) over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST)

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Rob Ferringo -
2*
Rockies,
Tigers,
1* Dodgers,
Blue Jays,
White Sox,
Orioles,
MLB Totals
7* Over Marlins,
3* Over Phillies,
2*
Under Yankees,
Under Padres,
1.5* Over Cubs,
1* Over Twins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HONDO Saturday

St. Louis Cards
Washington Nats

Hondo reeled in his fourth straight winner Friday night, bagging a beauty with the Marlins to slash the accounts payable to 555 brocks.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch will go with Wachamacallit over whatsisname for the Cubs — 10 units on the Cardinals. Also, he expects the Nats’ bats to make some noise against Burnett — 10 units on Roark.
As for the Derby, Mr. Aitch will back Ride on Curlin with a two-unit win wager, and play a one-unit exacta box with Ride on Curlin, Medal Count and Intense Holiday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK

Pacers -6.5
Thunder -9
Clippers -7.5

Marlins +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster POD

Bruins/Canadiens UNDER 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Falcon Sports

Orioles -115 listing Chen/Correia

Warriors +7.5

Ducks -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Best
NHL
Montreal
Kings

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James Jones
1 premium pick for 5/3/2014.




Warriors+7 over Clippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scotty Shiller -
5* Angels,
3* Orioles,
2* Under Phillies,
1* Under Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KELSO

NBA


25 atlanta
25 memphis
25 g.st
25 parlay all 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BETTING PROF
952. Chicago Cubs +160
970. Minnesota Twins +116

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Wayne Root
No Limit Clippers
Millionaire Memphis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

hm sports


35 dime Clippers -7


This game has blowout written all over it! I know GS won the last game, but this series has played into the zig zag playoff system perfectly. Expect staples center to be rocking tonight, as the clips win this by double digits. I just dont see any signs that point to GS winning this on the road and covering.


--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.


30 dimes Memphis +9


I know Randolph is out. If you remember earlier in the playoffs we had a HUGE play on Wash when Nene was suspended. Teams step up when a key player is out. I dont see any reason for that not to happen today! What surprised me is the line was -8 before the suspension was announced, and was pulled off the board, and reopened at -9? It just doesnt smell right.


--Grizzlies are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.


--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


--Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS L6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.


--Thunder are 1-5 ATS L6 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.


25 Dimes Atlanta +6


So after 1 win by the Pacers all of a sudden everyone is on them like they are world beaters? The pacers just dont score consistently enough to warrant laying 3 baskets with them. I think this game comes down to the last possession.


--Hawks are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.


--Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.


--Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.


--Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Pacers are 1-8 ATS L9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Pacers are 1-8 ATS L9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.


All 2 dime plays


Phillies over 7.5


Atlanta under 7.5


Yankees under 4.5 (1st 5 innings)


Texas over 8


Our derby Selections


#4 Danza (9-1) to win, place, show


#17 Candy Boy (16-1) to win, place, show


#19 Ride on Curlin (19-1) to win, place, show - made a lot of money with Borel as jockey.. he knows how to win... can he pull some magic today? i think so (my largest personal wager. .borel on the big stage gets my money...one of the smartest jockeys ive ever seen on the course)


#14 Medal Count (17-1) - i grabbed this at 35-1 earlier in the week... but will put this in my exacta boxes in combos with the 3 above

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 5/3

MLB Baseball

Philadelphia Phillies -113 over the Washington Nationals
(Money Line Bet)
Overall Record: 251-225
(System Record: 251-13, Lost last game)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Time: Saturday 05/03 1:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Boston -140 (moneyline) at Bovada

You know the Boston Red Sox poor start is not sitting well with players, fans, or management. And they got a huge hit last night from their catalyst Justin Pedroia as he belted a grand slam home run. That should get the Sox jump started as they send Jon Lester to the mound who is just 2-4, but owns a 3.10 ERA. Tommy Milone has not won a game for the A's this season, and is the weakest link in an otherwise solid rotation. Milone has had one career start vs. Boston, and that did not work out very well as Boston socked him for eight earned runs. Boston owns a 37-17 mark at home behind Lester to a total of 9-10.5, and overall the Sox have won five straight vs. a team over .600. The A's have a history of frustration at Fenway where they are 16-35 in their last 51. Make the play on Boston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James Sports

68-42-1 YTD

Over Red Sox 9.5
Over Orioles 8.5
Dodgers -115
Padres -134

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Baltimore Orioles -128 over the Minnesota Twins (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 2:10 PM EST - EARLY PLAY ALERT

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Fezzik

Memphis/OKC under 185 2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
MLB
5*-over 8.5 la-miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

971 SEA (-138) Hilton (http://www.pregame.com/en/main/sports-betting-lines-odds/?AflId=10872) vs 972 HOU Analysis:
PLAY: SEATTLE
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY



After taking 2 of 3 from Texas then going to New York and sweeping the Yankees it was only naturally for Seattle to suffer a letdown last night. Now coming off the loss with King Felix last night we will get a big effort from Seattle tonight. Note Seattle is 7-3 so far this year when facing lefties. Houston is just 28-64 as a Home Underdog the last 2 seasons. Seattle wins this 5-3.

TAKE SEATTLE as MARCO'S GRAND SLAM GAME

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silky sullivan
memphis

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball 5/3

8-Unit Play. #541. Take Over 184.5 Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Saturday @ 8:00pm est)

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Ray Monohan
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 8.5/-105 Under Play Title: 8* Saturday MLB DET/KC


Kansas City & Detroit under 8.5 The Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers on Saturday night in the third game of a four-game set. The Tigers are coming off an 8-2 win in game two in the series on Friday. Drew Smyly gets the nod for the Tigers in this one. He'll take on a Royals lineup that has really struggled to generate offense this season. Of late, they've had even more trouble, scoring only six runs in their last three games. Smyly will be opposed by Danny Duffy. Duffy hasn't gotten many opportunities to start, but he's been quite successful when getting those chances. Now he'll face a Tigers team that he's fared quite well against in his career. In two starts against them a year ago, Duffy posted a 1.74 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. The under is 5-1 in Duffy's last six starts against the Tigers, and 6-1-1 in his last eight starts at home. The under is 5-2 in Smyly's last seven starts overall. Take the UNDER. Good Luck, Razor Ray 8* Play on Kansas City & Detroit under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost on Friday in the NBA Playoffs with the Trailblazers -3/Rockets.

"Mr Chalk" did the splits in MLB winning with the Pirates -$125/Blue Jays and losing with the Padres -$150/Diamondbacks.

For Saturday in the NBA Playoffs E&B have a three team six point teaser all on the home teams.

(1) Pacers from -6 to Pk/Hawks

(2) Thunder from -7 to -1/Grizzlies

(3) Clippers from -7 to -1/Warriors

For Saturday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Reds -$150/Brewers.

E& B have a lean on the Bruins -$190/Canadians.

Also E&B like Wicked Strong in the Kentucky Derby today.

Ben lee is 5-5 -$60 for Week Twenty Seven 110-127-5 -$2362

"Mr Chalk" is 16-12 -$228 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 8.0/-119 Over Play Title: Total Recall TERMINATOR

This is a 10* play on LAD@MIA OVER. The Dodgers lost Game 1 of this series by a score of 6-3, and that shouldn't be much of a surprise considering the Fish rank 3rd in the Majors in batting average. High scoring games have been the trend at Marlin's Park, with eight of the last 10 going over the total. We will see a pair of struggling pitchers tonight, with Paul Maholm starting opposite Justin Turner. Maholm (1-2, 4.74 ERA) picked up his first win of the season, allowing a pair of runs on six hits over seven innings his last time out. He's been hit hard by the Fish in past meetings, Giancarlo Stanton is 3-for-6 lifetime, and the lineup as a whole is hitting .341 versus the lefty. Turner (0-0, 7.50 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits over six innings in his only previous start this season. The 22 year old allowed four runs on 10 hits over five innings in his last start versus the Dodgers. Needless to say, we aren't expecting a pitcher's duel. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule

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Joe D'Amico
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 8.5/-111 Over Play Title: MLB NL Total of the Month

Play LA/Miami OVER. (Game 907/908). This is my NL Total of the Month. Los Angeles has played to 8 OVERS in their L10 games while Miami's L4 contests all went OVER the Total. The Marlins average 4.72 RPG overall but at home they soar to 6.18 RPG. Seven batters all have 26 or more hits, the lineup also has four solid power hitters, and are stealing bases as well. The Dodgers have 30 HR's and lead the League in SB's. They account for 4.53 RPG away from home. Five sluggers have 30 or more hits, as it seems that the entire lineup is producing. Paul Maholm starts today. The LH is 1-2 with a 4.74 mark and has a 6-6, 4.12 career record vs. Miami. Jacob Turner takes the bump for Miami. The RH is 0-0 with an ERA of 7.50 and makes his first start in a month due to a shoulder injury. The OVER is 32-14-5 the L51 meetings. Take the OVER. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Real Animal

3* Thunder -2.5 (1st quarter)

I like Oklahoma City -2 ½ in the first quarter today. Kevin Durant spoke about how necessary it is for the Thunder to be aggressive and get off to a “quick start” following game #6 in Memphis. The Grizzlies are without Zach Randolph while point guard Mike Conley will attempt to play despite a hamstring injury. I don’t see how Conley can stay with Russell Westbrook if not completely 100 percent healthy. The Thunder raced out 25-17 in game #6 by the end of the first quarter and 56-41 at halftime. I look for a similar strategy today. I took the Thunder -2 ½ @ -115 today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

triple-dime bet

Mia (+106)

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Maddux


MLB
Phillies
NBA
GSW/Clippers over 206.5

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks


NBA 750* ATLANTA HAWKS +6.5
NBA 750* ATLANTA - OVER 185
NBA 500* MEMPHIS +9
NBA 500* LA CLIPPERS -7

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The Sheep's Moves



544 Clippers -7 $900
8 Ducks -120 $800
542 Under 186 Mem-Okc $1000 Open Order*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KING OF THE SPREAD


Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks
5.5 Units - Bet Over 184 Points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins


Today's Power Plays of The Day are
Sport: MLB
Detroit Tigers (-110)


Sport: NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder (-9)
Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI




5* Atlanta Hawks (+6)
5* LA Clippers (-7)




5* Colorado Rockies (-135)

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SportsJunkies -




GS/Clippers under 207

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BEN BURNS


*BREAK OUT YOUR BROOMS!* BURNS’ 3-GAME NBA ULTIMATE (INCLUDES TWO 10*S + PERSONAL FAVORITE!)
Memphis vs. Oklahoma City – May 3, 2014 – 8:00 PM


10* Pick: @ -9.5 -105 Oklahoma City


I’m playing on OKC. The Thunder have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort.


As if beating the Thunder in a Game 7 at OKC wasn’t already going to be difficult enough, the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph, who has been suspended. While that caused the line to climb slightly, I think his loss is greater than was reflected by the relatively small move. Throw in the fact that Conley is way less than 100% and things aren’t going to easy for the Grizzlies, who are rarely as good on the road as they are at home.


Conley commented: “Me being banged up, you’re going to have to ask more out of different guys, see a lot of guys step up …”


The Thunder are the stronger team. They won by 20 last time out, their second double-digit win in the series. Playing at home, I look for them to dictate the tempo en route to another convincing win and cover. 10*


Atlanta vs. Indiana – May 3, 2014 – 5:30 PM


9* Pick: @ -6 -110 Indiana


I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort.


The Hawks are now 16-29 on the road. The Pacers are 36-8 at home. They outscore teams by a 98.4 to 88.7 margin here.


The Pacers are also a dominating 19-9 ATS their last 28 as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect a big win and believe the number could easily be higher. 9*


Golden State vs. L.A. Clippers – May 3, 2014 – 10:30 PM


10* Pick: @ -7 -105 L.A. Clippers


I’m playing on LA. This series has certainly had a little bit of everything. While the last game came down to the wire, there have also been a few lopsided victories. The more focused team and/or the one which has overcome distractions, has generally had the advantage. With this being a Game 7, once the game starts, I expect both teams to effectively block out the distractions and this one to be decided on the floor. Playing at home, I like the Clippers’ chances.


There’s a fair amount of talk about LA’s Chris Paul being injured. He’s a warrior though and I’m not too worried about that. Paul had this to say: ”I’ll be there. Seven-thirty, that ball’s throwed up, I’ll be there. Can’t wait.’”


I’m not so confident that Golden State’s Jermaine O’neal will be able to bounce back and be ready the way Paul is for the Clippers. Even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. For a Warriors’ team already without Bogut, that figures to spell trouble.


While they failed to cover in all three games at Oakland, the Clippers won each of the last two here at LA by double-digits. Those wins came by 10 and 40 points. With Paul refusing to let his team lose, I look for the Clippers to overcome the adversity with another convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo Kentucky Derby

TOP CHOICE
#14 Medal Count

Here’s a horse that is razor sharp heading into the Derby because this horse raced 2 races in a 8 day period to get to the Derby. On Feb 22nd he raced in the Fountain of Youth and finished a disappointing 5th which seemed to derail the hopes that he was a Derby horse as he really had no excuse as he got the trip they wanted in the Florida Derby. The Connections sent him to Keeneland to race in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes and he responded with an impressive win so now once again they thought they had a Derby horse only problem was he didn’t have enough points so they made the decision to race him back just 8 days later in the Bluegrass needing a big finish to secure enough points to get into the Derby. He finished 2nd and now is in the Derby the only knock on him just like Dance with Fate his 2 best races came on synthetic surface so the question is can he handle the dirt surface at Churchill Downs? A few years ago they asked the same question of Animal Kingdom and well we all know what the answer was that year as Animal Kingdom lit up the tote board. Trainer Dale Romans has said that Medal Count has handled the track well this week at Churchill and I’m looking for a big effort from him today. The sire of Medal Count is Dynaformer who gives this horse the license to get this distance. His running style is perfect for the Derby as he will be sitting in the group of stalkers mid pack meaning if the pace is too fast he is far enough back not to get used up in fast fractions and if the pace is slow he is close enough to adjust and be closer in a slow pace. Also by sitting where he will be he won’t have to navigate around the entire field. At this price I will be making WIN-PLACE-SHOW Bets.



2nd CHOICE
#20 Wicked Strong

Clearly coming off of his best race of his career in winning the Wood Memorial with a Beyer speed figure of 104. Some may fear that he bounces off of such a big race last time out as he improved 17 points with Beyer rating but those kind of jumps can happen with lightly raced horses as they haven’t peaked yet. Wicked Strong has just 6 lifetime starts so I feel he has not peaked yet. Personally I think entering the Derby with 5-7 lifetime starts is the perfect number of races. Wicked Strong is a legitimate horse and would have been my Top Choice had he not drew the #20 post. I still feel he will be able to work out a trip but he will have to navigate thru some traffic in doing so and I think he runs out of racetrack and finishes 2nd. If he gets a clean trip and there is some speed early on he could win this race. Because I always bet 2 Horses in the Kentucky Derby because of the inflated prices this horse win be getting a Win-Place Bet.


3rd CHOICE
#5 California Chrome

This is the horse to beat on paper as he has won 4 straight all in impressive fashion and has posted back to back big Beyer speed figures of 107 & 108 in his last 2 starts. What I don’t like is the fact that this will be his 11th start of his career. Personally I think that is too many at this point of a horse’s career. He has been on the front or right near the front in his Santa Anita wins and those were speed bias tracks as the front end held up well. With a 20 horse field and this the post position he drew what kind of fractions are set will be key for this horse. I also have to question how he is going to react to racing for the first time out of the state of California. I would have felt better had the connections came to Louisville last week so he could have had a good workout over the Churchill dirt. He will be most likely over bet in here but you can not throw him off your tickets either.

4th CHOICE
#16 Intense Holiday

One of 4 Todd Pletcher entries in this years Derby who comes off good effort in the Louisiana Derby as he made a good close in a race where Vicar’s in Trouble was the winner who got away from the pack as the only true speed horse in the Louisiana Derby. Intense Holiday has the running style that wins the Derby as a horse that sets mid pack and closes. If there are honest fractions he will be closing late if it’s very fast fractions then this horse will be flying late. Picks up jockey John Velazquez as Mike Smith who rode him in his last 2 starts was scheduled to ride Hoppertunity. I would feel more comfortable with Intense Holiday if Velazquez had ridden him at least once or had we had Mike Smith aboard but this is another horse who’s style fits the derby well and is why he is my 4th choice.

5th CHOICE
#4 Danza

One of 4 Todd Pletcher entries in this years Kentucky Derby who comes off of a monster effort in the Arkansas Derby. Danza got a perfect trip in Arkansas Derby as he sat just behind the leaders and when the horses turned for Home the Horses on the lead drifted out opening the rail up for Danza to shoot thru with no problem. Often times horses trying to shoot the rail have to be checked and lose momentum but Danza did not experience that. This is just his 5th lifetime start which gives him a license to make another big jump forward. Because of his post position he could very well get another ground saving trip that has him flying at the end. This horse has looked good all week in his morning works and is getting a lot of attention because of it as his odds have dropped. I will have him in some of our exotics.




6th CHOICE
#12 Dance with Fate

Here is a horse clearly on the improve as he has improved his Beyer Speed figure in 4 straight starts going from 72, 83, 90 to 97 in his last start which was a win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Has a perfect running style as he can sit off the pace and close as he did in the Bluegrass which is ideal if there is a hotly contested pace up front in the Derby. The one knock on him is can he handle the surface as this horse has done his best on Turf and a synthetic surface. Dance With Fate is a horse that has to be used as he is on the improve and will be a price and if he takes to the Churchill Downs surface could light up the tote board. This is a horse that must be used in your exotics.



7th CHOICE
#13 Chitu

I feel that the 2 true speed horses are Vicar’s In Trouble and Chitu and because Vicar’s has post #1 he could have trouble getting away good. Chitu will have a clean break from post #13 and should make the lead. It doesn’t happen often but if a true speed gets left alone on the front end with no challengers a Speed Horse can steal the derby. I will have a few saver exactas with the #13 in them just in case that scenario happens. Again these will be small saver bets but because of the odds we will get a big payday if we hit.

8th CHOICE
#6 Samraat

How do you fault a horse who in 6 lifetime starts has 5 wins and a 2nd. His Beyer figure has gradually increased in each of his last 3 starts going from 94 to 96 to 98. In his last race he finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial behind Wicked Strong. Samraat possesses enough gate speed that will have him challenging for the lead or sitting just off of it which with Post 6 should be able to get the trip he wants. Note that in those 2 duels where he and Uncle Sigh battled to the wire in both of those battles he was the horse on the outside and Uncle Sigh was on the inside and when two horses battle like that down the stretch it’s a huge advantage to be the one on the outside. Honest horse that can hit the board.


The following is my Betting strategies for the Kentucky Derby. Please bet what you are comfortable with. I have listed bets for Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas but if you only want to play exactas based on your bankroll that is fine. I feel the KY Derby offers positive EV for a sharp player because the betting pools are so big thus if you hit the payouts can be huge. I do invest more money in this one race than any other race all year because of the potential return. But again everyone’s comfort zone is different so please play within your comfort zone. Thank You for your support and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Follow me on Twitter all day for some spot plays in other races on the Churchill Card. @MarcoinVegas

Personally my biggest Bets will be Win-Place-Show Bets on these 2 horses I will be using "ladder betting" which is staggering my bet size on WPS. I have listed an example to show what I mean but again you should bet what is in your comfort zone.

WIN-PLACE-SHOW #14 MEDAL COUNT
(example bet: $20 Win $30 Place $40 Show)

WIN-PLACE #20 WICKED STRONG
(example bet: $20 Win $40 Place)

EXACTA WAGERS TOTAL INVESTED $158

$1 EXACTA WHEEL 5-14-20/1-4-5-6-12-13-14-16-20 = $24
$1 EXACTA WHEEL 1-4-5-6-12-13-14-16-20/ 5-14-20 = $24
$1 EXACTA BOX 4-5-14-16-20 = $20
$2 EXACTA WHEEL 5-14-20/4-5-14-16-20 = $24
$2 EXACTA WHEEL 4-5-14-16-20 / 5-14-20= $24
$4 EXACTA WHEEL 14-20 / 4-5-14-16-20= $32
$2 EXACTA WHEEL 4-5-14-16-20 / 14-20= $16



TRIFECTA WAGERS TOTAL INVESTED $116

$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL 5-14-16-20/4-5-14-16-20/ 4-5-12-13-14-16-20 = $80
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL 14/5-16-20/ 1-4-5-12-13-16-20 = $18
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL 20/5-14-16/ 1-4-5-12-13-14-16 = $18


For those with bigger bankrolls wishing to play Superfecta

$1 SUPERFECTA WHEEL 5-14-20/5-14-16-20/ 4-5-14-16-20/ 1-4-5-12-13-14-16-20 = $135

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ATS Consultants

2014 Kentucky Derby - Saturday, May 3rd
Churchill Downs - Race 11 - 6:24pm
18 CANDY BOY 20-1
20 WICKED STRONG
16 INTENSE HOLIDAY
5 CALIFORNIA CHROME
14 MEDAL COUNT

Bet top horse to win and place
Use all horses for your exotic wagering
(ie. exacta boxes, trifecta boxes, superfecta boxes, etc.)

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Goldberg Superfecta $2 cost you $48: Cal Crome with INTENSE HOLIDAY then box with 14, 15 18 and 20

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PhillyGodfFather on the derby:


VICARS IN TROUBLE
MEDAL COUNT
SAMRAAT

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Benton 100 dime
Pacers

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king creole

ATL/IND UNDER no line posted

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RTG SPORTS
Atlanta Hawks +6 **
Memphis Grizzlies +10 (BH) **
Golden State Warriors +7 **