5-28-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Alvarez is 2-1, 3.06 in his last seven starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-1, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-1, 1.45 in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three road starts.
-- Stauffer threw five shutout innings in his only '14 start.
-- Kershaw is 3-1, 3.49 in five starts, only one of which was at home.

-- Cosart is 2-1, 4.15 in his last three starts. Duffy has a 2.74 RA in four starts but only one win.
-- Hendriks allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his first '14 start.
-- Sanchez is 2-0, 2.57 in his last three starts. Kazmir is 3-2, 3.34 in his last six.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 2.78 in his last three starts. Wilson is 2-0, 0.59 in his last two starts.

-- Lackey is 3-1, 2.83 in his last six starts.
-- Miller is 5-1, 3.18 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-2, 6.44 in his last five starts. Morton is 1-2, 4.34 in his last three.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
-- Anderson has a 7.24 RA in three starts this year.
-- Bailey is 0-2, 8.04 in his last three road starts.

-- Archer is 1-1, 6.68 in his last six starts.
-- Noesi is 0-3, 5.74 in five starts this season. House allowed five runs in six IP in his first MLB start.
-- Gibson is 1-2, 7.71 in his last three starts. Saunders allowed five runs in 3.2 IP in his first '14 start April 4-- he got hit by a line drive, went on DL.

-- Floyd is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
-- Gallardo is 0-3, 6.33 in his last four starts. Norris is 1-2, 3.71 in his last four.
-- Kuroda is 1-2, 6.69 in his last six starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Alvarez 4-10; Zimmerman 1-10
-- Morton 2-10; Colon 3-10
-- Jackson 4-10; Lincecum 4-10
-- Lyles 3-10; Hernandez 4-8
-- Stauffer 0-1; Anderson 0-3
-- Bailey 3-10; Kershaw 0-5


-- Cosart 5-10; Duffy 0-4
-- Archer 2-10; Hendriks 0-1
-- House 0-1; Noesi 3-5
-- Saunders 1-1; Gibson 3-9
-- Sanchez 3-7; Kazmir 2-10
-- Wilson 3-10; Hernandez 1-11

-- Floyd 0-4; Lackey 3-10
-- Norris 2-9; Gallardo 2-10
-- Kuroda 5-10 (4 of last 5); Miller 0-10

Totals
-- Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
-- Seven of last ten Miami road games went over.
-- Eight of last eleven Cub games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 10-6 in last sixteen Cincinnati road games.

-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas road games.
-- Over is 9-6 in White Sox' last fifteen games.
-- Last nine Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4-2 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Under is 4-2 in last six Toronto home games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Houston road games stayed under.

-- Under is 16-5-2 in last 23 Atlanta home games.
-- Under is 7-4-2 in last thirteen Milwaukee games.
-- Five of last seven St Louis home games stayed under.


Hot teams
-- Pirates won five of last seven games, but are 5-14 in last 19 on road.
-- Dodgers won six of their last eight games.
-- San Francisco won six of its last eight games.

-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Blue Jays won ten of their last twelve games. Tampa Bay won four of its last six games.
-- Houston won its last four games.

-- Milwaukee won five of its last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won ten of their last thirteen games. Bronx is 9-6 in last fifteen road games.


Cold teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost seven of its last 11 away games. Washington lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last eight road games. Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona lost 17 of its 24 home games. San Diego lost six of its last nine games overall.
-- Reds lost ten of last thirteen road games.

-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- White Sox are 6-7 in their last thirteen home games. Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
-- Detroit lost seven of its last nine games. Oakland lost five of its last six.
-- Mariners are 5-7 in their last twelve home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-10 in its last 15 home games.

-- Red Sox lost 10 of their last 12 games, but won last two. Atlanta is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six road games.

Umpires
-- Mia-Wsh-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Buckminster games.
-- Col-Phil-- Home side won all eight Rackley games; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven games behind the plate.
-- Pitt-NY-- Five of last six Nelson games stayed under.
-- SD-Az-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Barber games; over is 6-1-1 in those games.
-- Cin-LA-- Visiting team won four of last five Cuzzi games.
-- Chi-SF-- Six of seven Segal games went over the total.

-- TB-Tor-- Seven of nine O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Cle-Chi-- Over is 7-1-1 in LBarrett games.
-- Hst-KC-- Four of last five Barksdale games went over total.
-- Tex-Min-- Four of last five Hoberg games stayed under.
-- Det-A's-- Five of last seven Meals games went over total.
-- LA-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Scott games.

-- Bos-Atl-- Seven of ten Hoye games stayed under.
-- Blt-Mil-- Favorites won seven of nine Kellogg games.
-- NY-StL-- Last four Vanover games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/28/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 5/28/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 27)
The Pacers did finally hold the Heat to under 50 percent from the floor in Game #4 (Miami shot 46.4%) but it was not NEARLY enough. The Heat were the way more aggressive team and it showed in the fact that Miami took 34 free throws (made 30) while Indiana got to the line just 17 times (made 11). The plus-19 point disparity at the charity stripe was more than enough for the Heat to win comfortably, 102-90.

After playing its best game of the 2014 postseason in Game #1 of this Eastern Conference finals (Pacers won 107-96), Indiana has now dropped three straight to Miami and finds itself in a 1-3 'hole.' The Heat are now just one win away from a FOURTH straight trip to the NBA Finals, a feat accomplished by only two other NBA franchises, the Celtics and Lakers. LBJ had his highest scoring game of the series with 32 points but the real plus for Miami in Game #4 was Chris Bosh, who up until now, had been VERY quiet in this series. Bosh had scored just nine points in each of the first three games (on 12 of 33 shooting, which is 36.4%) but he came up HUGE in Game #4 Monday night, getting 25 points on 7 of 15 shooting on FGs and 8 of 10 on free throws.

Paul George bounced back from a poor Game #3 with 23 points and David West added 20 & 12 but Roy Hibbert did another "disappearing act," playing 22 scoreless minutes (0 of 4 FGs), while grabbing five rebounds. He had averaged 15.7 PPG in the 1st three games of the series but this one was B-A-D! It should also come as no surprise that Lance Stephenson's 'bark' is quite a bit louder than his 'bite,' as the guy who engaged "King James" in a "war of words," scored just nine points on 3 of 7 shooting.

Home teams have struggled his postseason but NOT here in the conference finals. Monday night's Miami win makes home teams 6-1 straight-up and versus the number in the two current series. However, since the start of the postseason, home teams are a modest 44-35 SU (.557), while going a 'money-burning' 33-43-3 ATS (that's 43.4% or minus-14.3 net games).

Monday evenings’ game went over (again) and over players are cashing at almost a 60 percent rate this postseason, with 46 overs and 33 unders, so far (58.2% favoring the over). "Zig-Zaggers" lost with the Pacers and fell to 34-28-3 year to date. However, that remains a profit of 3.2 net games. Tuesday, they'll be on the San Antonio Spurs when they visit the Thunder in Oklahoma City at 9:00 PM EST on TNT.

We all know the storyline Tuesday. Serge Ibaka's surprising return to the court in Game #3, made the Thunder look like a completely different team. His presence allowed Nick Collison to return to the bench (a place he never left), while Scott Brooks also replaced Thabo Sefolosha (0 for 9 on FGs in the 1st two games) with Reggie Jackson, who scored 15 points. Brooks will also likely to continue to make more use of rookie center Steven Adams, who has averaged 8 & 8 the last two games.

The lineup changes allowed Oklahoma City to out-rebound the Spurs 52-36 on Sunday after getting out-rebounded by three in Game #1 and 15 in Game #2. The Thunder also more aggressive and outscored the Spurs 26-15 at the free throw line. As for San Antonio, after shooting 57.5% in Game #1 and 50.0% in Game #2 (while averaging 117.0 PPG), the Spurs connected on only 39.6 percent, while scoring just 97 points. Tony Parker and Danny Green, who combined for 43 points in Game #2, had just 17 in Game #3, shooting a combined 7 of 25 (28.0%).

Do we now have a series? Oklahoma City dominated on Sunday with Ibaka and it sort of reminded us that Oklahoma City swept the Spurs 4-0 this regular season, outscoring San Antonio on average by just about 10 PPG (106.0-to-96.8). We begin to find out the 'answer' at 9:00 PM EST (once again TNT will carry the coverage). The Thunder are favored by 2 1/2 points and the total is 207.
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Eastern Conference Finals

#517 MIAMI @ #518 INDIANA
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -2, Total: 184) - The Miami Heat are on the verge of a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Indiana Pacers are one loss away from a long summer of figuring out what went wrong. The Heat will look to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Pacers for Game #5 on Wednesday night. Indiana took Game #1 of the series but has dropped three straight and never looked like it had a chance as Miami cruised through Game #4 on Monday.

The Pacers have never won a series in which they trailed 3-1 but are not giving up on reversing that history. “Our guys believe in what we do, and we know that,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Once we lost Game #2, we need to win one time (in Miami) and then take care of homecourt. So we had three opportunities to do that. We didn’t do it in Game #3 and #4. I believe they’re strong, and we’ll go back and get Game #5 and then come back and fight Game #6.” LeBron James and the Heat realize that Indiana is not going to go down easy. “It’s going to take a better game than we had (Monday),” James told reporters. “It’s that simple.”

•ABOUT THE HEAT (65-30 SU, 46-47-2 ATS): Miami got a big lift on Monday from center Chris Bosh, who hit his first four shots and ended up with a postseason-high 25 points. “Well, certainly it’s much more how we wanted to play, and the start helped,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “We came out with a tremendous amount of energy and that was on both ends of the court.” James took care of things in the second half as the Heat cruised. Miami has never let a 3-1 lead slip away in the “Big Three” era and doesn’t intend to let up. “You have to get better every game,” James said. “Their back is against the wall, but we have to go in with that mindset that our back is against the wall, too.”

•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-34 SU, 46-52-1 ATS): Guard Lance Stephenson made headlines when he talked about James showing weakness by responding to trash talk prior to Game #4 but had a difficult time backing up his comments. Stephenson was held to one point in the first three quarters and did not record a field goal until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth. Stephenson wasn’t the only starter struggling, as Roy Hibbert went scoreless and had trouble chasing Bosh around the perimeter in the first half. Both Paul George and David West questioned the officiating after Game #4 but guard George Hill was ready to turn the page. “I think this is when we are at out best, when our backs are against the wall,” Hill told reporters.

•PREGAME NOTES: Miami G Ray Allen (hip) and F Chris Andersen (thigh) are both questionable for Game #5.... Pacers F Luis Scola scored 12 points in Game #4, matching his total from the first three games.... Indiana was outscored by 19 points at the free-throw line in Game #4.... The Heat are 52-36 against the spread (59.0%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 7-19 versus the spread (26.9%) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, including 1-8 ATS (0.11%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 540 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 597 times, while INDIANA won 377 times. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under the total, while 447 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 498 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-41 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-43 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--49 of 89 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--INDIANA is 48-40 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--48 of 88 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.

--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games following a S.U. win.

--Pacers are 2-10 ATS L12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 after allowing 100 points or more LG.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - revenging a loss versus opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG).
(177-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.8%, +78.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -234.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.4, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +8.7)

The situation's record this season is: (20-8, +1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-23, +31.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (570-203, +47.2 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2, 184)

The Miami Heat are on the verge of a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Indiana Pacers are one loss away from a long summer of figuring out what went wrong. The Heat will look to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Pacers for Game 5 on Wednesday. Indiana took Game 1 of the series but has dropped three straight and never looked like it had a chance as Miami cruised through Game 4 on Monday.

The Pacers have never won a series in which they trailed 3-1 but are not giving up on reversing that history. “Our guys believe in what we do, and we know that,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Once we lost Game 2, we need to win one time (in Miami) and then take care of homecourt. So we had three opportunities to do that. We didn’t do it in Game 3 and 4. I believe they’re strong, and we’ll go back and get Game 5 and then come back and fight Game 6.” LeBron James and the Heat realize that Indiana is not going to go down easy. “It’s going to take a better game than we had (Monday),” James told reporters. “It’s that simple.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Heat as 2-point road favorites. The total opened 184.

INJURY REPORT: Heat - Chris Andersen (Questionable, thigh).

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "We opened this game Heat -2.5 and so far, it’s attracted good two-way action. Pacers in a must-win game with it being a 'lose and go home' scenario for the. But while they’re in a must win spot, I still have serious questions about their mindset going into Game 5. Do they really think they can beat this Heat team three-straight games and win the series? The Pacers have proven one thing in the past three months, that they are a mentally weak team. So do they truly believe that they can win this series? And if they don’t believe they can, then they could easily be in the mindset of 'let’s get this series over with and let’s get this traumatic season over with'. I believe the Pacers will come out to play, but as has been the case in Games 2 and 3, the Heat will eventually get to that fifth gear that the Pacers simply don’t have and will win this game by going away in the 4th quarter." Peter Childs, Sportsbook.com (http://www.sportsbook.ag/).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The two-time defending champions have won three-straight in this series (both straight-up and ATS) and are mere 2-point favs heading into a crucial Game 5. Coaches and players alike are rattled in Indiana, while Miami continues to conduct itself with poise and an ever growing sense of confidence. All eyes now turn to Pacers' coach Frank Vogel who will be tasked to figure out a line-up that works, and if he doesn't, Indiana's big regular season in which it worked so hard to obtain home-court advantage, will definitely have been wasted." - Covers Experts' Nick Parsons

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami got a big lift on Monday from center Chris Bosh, who hit his first four shots and ended up with a postseason-high 25 points. “Well, certainly it’s much more how we wanted to play, and the start helped,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “We came out with a tremendous amount of energy and that was on both ends of the court.” James took care of things in the second half as the Heat cruised. Miami has never let a 3-1 lead slip away in the “Big Three” era and doesn’t intend to let up. “You have to get better every game,” James said. “Their back is against the wall, but we have to go in with that mindset that our back is against the wall, too.”

ABOUT THE PACERS: Guard Lance Stephenson made headlines when he talked about James showing weakness by responding to trash talk prior to Game 4 but had a difficult time backing up his comments. Stephenson was held to one point in the first three quarters and did not record a field goal until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth. Stephenson wasn’t the only starter struggling, as Roy Hibbert went scoreless and had trouble chasing Bosh around the perimeter in the first half. Both Paul George and David West questioned the officiating after Game 4 but guard George Hill was ready to turn the page. “I think this is when we are at out best, when our backs are against the wall,” Hill told reporters.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Central.
* Pacers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are on the Heat -2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat/Pacers #5: The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY

It could have been as easy here as a cut-and-paste from Monday’s prelude to Game #4, since the music was the same, but the lyrics slightly different – Bob Vogel is working with a rock-and-roll band, and the limitations that they bring, while Erik Spoelstra is conducting an orchestra. But the latest overture does deserve a closer look, as does that eccentric NBA stat table known as +/-.

To recap from earlier our forays inside this series flow, the Pacers had James-Wade-Chalmers-Bosh-Haslem on their mind for a long time. They built a team that could take on that group, and from what has been seen in this series they might well beat them – they have out-scored them consistently when that has been the lineup. But Miami has built a stockpile of veteran players that can drastically change the make-up and flow, and through Games #2 and #3 it was in going away from the original starting lineup that Spoelstra took command.

Game #4 brought a new wrinkle, the insertion of Rashard Lewis into the starting lineup, and we will look at it a couple of different ways. First the impact on the flow, and then how +/- can be such a difficult tool to work with.

The biggest matchup problem the Heat have against the Pacers is the defense of Roy Hibbert around the basket, making it difficult to finish drives. Through the first two games Indiana was a +27 in the 79:30 that he played. In Game #3 the entire momentum of the series turned when Spoelstra went with a smaller lineup, and while the most visible aspect of that were those Ray Allen triples in the fourth quarter against a confused defense, do not forget how easily they also converted from closer range, signs of what couple happen when Hibbert was brought away from the basket.

So then came Monday. Lewis went from not even playing in the first two games to joining the starting lineup, and the strategy was easy to see from the start – establish Chris Bosh on the perimeter, taking Hibbert far out of his defensive comfort zone. Bosh had not been having a good series, but he scored eight points in the first 1:48, and the tone had been set. The Pacer defense, #1 in the NBA during the regular season, never found a groove. They were an awful -23 in the 22:14 that Hibbert played, and only forced Miami into five turnovers the entire game.

You should know that part of the story by heart now – the flexibility of the Heat, and the inflexibility of Indiana, is the dominant series theme. For the Pacers to win they have to “do the things that they do” very well, because there are no X’s and O’s fixes. What they do has worked against the traditional Heat lineup back in Indianapolis, where they have gone 6-2 the past two seasons, with five of the wins in double figures. But when Vogel called for his Tuesday practice, how could he even anticipate the Miami starting lineup or rotation for Game #5?

Then there is +/-. Let’s begin by repeating what was said prior to Game #4 in this space – “keep in mind that +/- numbers are inexact, and should never be more than an accessory to a properly-dressed handicap.” Find a way to etch that into your NBA handicapping consciousness, because the Lewis numbers over the past two games shatter all logical conventions.

Lewis played 43:15 in those two games, and his stat line was horrific. He was 0-7 from the field, not scoring a single point, with only three rebounds and one assist. Had you graded him on that, it would go downs as one of the worst stretches of playoff basketball anyone has ever played. But what did the scoreboard show for those minutes? How about a +35 for the Heat? That would make it one of the best stretches of playoff basketball anyone has ever played, a per-minute rate that would shatter anything that has ever happened in the Conference Finals.

So how do you account for such a bizarre +/- distribution in your thinking? You don’t. It is a factor that should not be a big enough part of your handicap to require an adjustment. At best, cuff links, as a part of your ensemble.

Now for Game #5. Indiana will get a confidence boost from the venue, and keep in mind that when Paul George suffered his concussion they were seven minutes away from making it a 2-0 series. But that was still mostly against the traditional Miami rotation. Adjusting to the smaller and quicker group is so difficult for the Pacers, and you must keep in mind that in Game #4 they shot 49.3 percent from the field, nailing 9-21 triples, and won the boards 37-34. When that adds up to a 12-point loss, the issues are clear to see.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Miami at Washington

The Nationals look to even the series against the Marlins and come into tonight's contest with a 16-3 record in Jordan Zimmermann's last 19 starts as a favorite of -150 to -200. Washington is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.581; NY Mets (Colon) 13.604
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Over


Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 14.350; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.925
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-170); Under


Game 905-906: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.630; Philadelphia (Hernandez) 14.671
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Over


Game 907-908: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.715; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.425
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Under


Game 909-910: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 16.102; Arizona (Anderson) 15.097
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Under


Game 911-912: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.133; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.731
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over


Game 913-914: Houston at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 16.877; Kansas City (Duffy) 15.969
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Under


Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.423; Toronto (Hendriks) 15.466
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over


Game 917-918: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 16.620; White Sox (Noesi) 15.745
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under


Game 919-920: Texas at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 14.721; Minnesota (Gibson) 16.121
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Over


Game 921-922: Detroit at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 14.047; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.611
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Under


Game 923-924: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.524; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.382
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over


Game 925-926: Atlanta at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Floyd) 15.552; Boston (Lackey) 14.649
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Under


Game 927-928: Baltimore at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 14.122; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.670
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Over


Game 929-930: NY Yankees at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.402; St. Louis (Miller) 15.820
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Miami at Indiana

The Pacers look to stay alive in the series tonight as they host a Miami team that is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 road games when the total is set between 180 and 184.5 points. Indiana is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.


WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 517-518: Miami at Indiana (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.088; Indiana 124.979
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Tulsa at San Antonio

The Shock head to San Antonio tonight to face a Stars team that is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 home games. Tulsa is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 109.415; San Antonio 112.504
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 150
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Pacers +2
Blackhawks -1.5 (+210)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Kings/Blackhawks over 5

Tulsa Shock +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play WED: Royals -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
77-42 since 1997. ( 64.7% | 30.8 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (INDIANA) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses
206-94 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.7% | 71.0 units )
23-14 this year. ( 62.2% | -1.3 units )

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA playoffs

Pacers outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line in Game 1; since then, Miami has 56-40 edge on charity stripe, winning last three games by 4-12-12 points. Heat is dominant in 4th quarter this spring. Home side won 11 of last 12 Miami-Indiana games; eight of last 11 series games went over the total. Miami is 11-3 in playoffs, 4-2 on road; they're 9-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-8 in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread when they are getting points (0-3 in last three). Hibbert was scoreless four 4th time in playoffs last game. Question now becomes Indiana's will to compete to extend a series it is doubtful they can win.

Over is 46-34 in playoffs this season, 4-4 in this round..
Favorites are 31-49 in playoffs this season, 7-1 in this round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat looks to close

Miami (65-30) at Indiana (65-34)

Line and Total: Miami -2, Total: 184

The Heat look to eliminate the host Pacers and advance to the NBA Finals for the third straight season in Wednesday's Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

After a Game 1 victory in which Indiana defeated the Heat by 11 points, Miami has completely taken control of the series with three straight victories. The Heat won Game 2 by four points and have prevailed in two home games by 12 points each, taking Monday's Game 4 by a 102-90 score. The series now shifts back to Bankers Life Fieldhouse where the Pacers will be fighting for their playoff lives after an entire season of positioning themselves with the top seed in the East. Both clubs have a nearly break-even ATS record in this scenario this season with the Heat going 23-22-2 ATS on the road with their opponent at 24-25-1 ATS at home. But Indiana has the 9-5 SU (8-6 ATS) advantage when hosting in this series over the past three seasons. However, Miami is 17-11 SU (15-13 ATS) overall in that timeframe.

The Heat are 9-4 ATS this postseason (4-2 ATS on road), and are also 11-2 ATS this season when playing five or less games in 14 days. But the Pacers are 3-0 ATS this season when playing against a team that has defeated them in three straight games and 19-7 ATS at home when playing four or less games in a 10-day span in the past two seasons. The only injury concern for either team is PF Chris Andersen (thigh), who missed Game 4, but will likely give it a go in Game 5 in Indiana.

The Heat played an outstanding game at AmericanAirlines Arena on Monday with a 102-90 victory. They shot 46.4% FG and 88.2% FT (30-of-34) with only seven turnovers. Now Miami looks to buy itself some extra rest with a Game 5 series-clinching win. SF LeBron James (26.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.8 APG this series) played his best game of the series after being called out by Lance Stephenson of the Pacers, who didn’t think much of James’ trash talk in Game 3. James poured in 32 points (13-of-21 FG), 10 rebounds and five assists on Monday, and will continue to aggressively attack the basket as the Pacers were not able to protect the rim on Monday. SG Dwyane Wade (22.0 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG this series) finished with 15 points in the game and also played some outstanding defense on Stephenson. If Wade, who is making 57% FG in the series, can continue to outplay the Pacers' shooting guard, Miami should have no problem finishing Indiana off and advancing to the finals.

PF Chris Bosh (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this series) finally showed up in this series on Monday. Bosh was established early by the Heat and was on fire from the outside. The forward finished the game with 25 points (7-of-12 FG, 3-of-5 3PT) and six rebounds, which was quite an improvement from his 9.0 PPG and 4.0 RPG in the first three games versus Indiana. Miami will need Bosh, whose defense on Roy Hibbert was also a major reason the Heat won Game 4, to continue to shoot the ball well if it is going to complete the goal of winning three straight NBA championships. SG Ray Allen (10.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG this series) was the team's top reserve scorer on Monday with nine points and four rebounds, but made just 2-of-8 FG (1-of-5 threes) to drop to 41% FG (44% threes) for the series.

The Pacers fought all year long to get themselves the No. 1 seed because they were confident playing on their home court. Now they must win at home just to keep their season alive. On Monday, the team shot very well from the floor (49% FG, 43% threes), but made only 11-of-17 FT (65%) and committed 14 turnovers with only 18 assists on 35 baskets. Indiana also barely won the rebounding battle (37-34) despite having a superior frontcourt in terms of both size and skill. SG Lance Stephenson (15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.0 APG this series) made the headlines this week as he opened his mouth and doubted LeBron James.

While James went off in Game 4, Stephenson was held to just nine points (3-of-7 FG) in 32 minutes. Indiana desperately needs its playmaker to get himself going early in Game 5 or it could be out of the game rather early. SF Paul George (19.5 PPG, 5.0 APG, 4.5 RPG this series) had 23 points and seven rebounds in 43 minutes in Game 4, but was rather ineffective until the garbage minutes in the fourth quarter. George must find himself some easy shots early in the game in order to get his confidence up. He can really struggle if he is not seeing the ball go in consistently. The Pacers are also going to need to find some shots for their All-Star C Roy Hibbert (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG this series). Hibbert took just four shots in Game 4 and was unable to score a single point in 22 minutes of play. The big man also found himself in foul trouble rather early.

The Pacers will need to get the same type of balance they received in Game 1 if they are going to get themselves back into this series. PF David West (15.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG in series) continues to be rock-solid for this team with 20 points, 12 rebounds and four assists in Game 4, and PG George Hill (12.8 PPG on 46% FG in series) had his best game of the series on Monday with 15 points (4-of-7 threes) and four assists. That output topped his combined assist total from the first three games of this series when he had three assists and five turnovers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kings -110 fave to win Stanley Cup
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

Opening odds have the Los Angeles Kings slated as a -110 favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

The New York Rangers are listed at +140, the Chicago Blackhawks at +800 and the Montreal Canadiens at +1800.

The odds have shifted in the Kings favor after their Game 4 victory over the Hawks Monday night. Both L.A. and New York have a 3-1 stranglehold on their respective series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: Kings (46-28) at Blackhawks (46-21)

Date: May 28, 2014 8:00 PM EDT

CHICAGO (AP) - The special teams have been awful. The faceoff circle has been a huge problem. Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp have combined for one goal for the Chicago Blackhawks.

The defending Stanley Cup champions are in big trouble in the Western Conference final, down 3-1 to the rolling Los Angeles Kings.

But the Blackhawks are back at home for Game 5 on Wednesday night, and have dug out of similar trouble before.

'Just looking to win Game 5,' coach Joel Quenneville said after the Blackhawks arrived back in Chicago on Tuesday afternoon. 'That's it. Get the momentum back and go from there.'

The previous time this series was in Chicago, the Kings seized the momentum with a five-goal third period in a 6-2 victory in Game 2.

It carried right over to a pair of impressive victories in Los Angeles that moved the Kings to the brink of their second Stanley Cup Final in three seasons.

Los Angeles has shredded Chicago's penalty-kill unit for five goals in its past 10 chances, while holding the Blackhawks to one power-play goal in their past 11 opportunities. Anze Kopitar and the Kings have won 58 percent (106 of 184) of the faceoffs during the win streak, taking the puck-possession Blackhawks out of their game.

'It's one of the things you look at with young centermen is how are they on faceoffs and are they working to improve on it,' Los Angeles coach Darryl Sutter said. 'It's a special skill. It's one of those stats in hockey when you say you're 50 percent, you know, if that was us in school, we'd be going again.'

The Kings' big advantage against the Blackhawks is a far cry from the beginning of the playoffs, when they lost their first three games against San Jose. But they rallied past the Sharks in seven games, and then eliminated Anaheim after falling behind 3-2 in that series.

The twin rallies could help against Chicago. Los Angeles, which won the Stanley Cup in 2012, knows how important it is to quickly close out a team such as the Blackhawks while they are struggling.

'We're expecting their best,' Kings center Trevor Lewis said. 'They're back at home now. We're expecting them to come out hard. I mean, they're defending Cup champions. I don't think they're going to give up by any means.'

A year ago, the Blackhawks were down 3-1 to the Red Wings in the second round when they headed home for Game 5. Andrew Shaw then had two goals in a 4-1 victory that sparked a series-saving winning streak for Chicago.

The Blackhawks also lost their first three games in the first round against Vancouver in 2011, and got all the way back to a 2-1 overtime loss in Game 7. They are drawing on those experiences for this series, while acknowledging the surging Kings are an entirely different problem.

'We're looking forward to getting out there tomorrow night,' defenseman Brent Seabrook said. 'I know the guys were being upbeat on the plane this morning, at breakfast this morning. We're looking forward to getting out there tomorrow and trying to get some momentum back and start feeling good about ourselves again.'

Seabrook and defensive partner Duncan Keith had one of their worst games of the season in Monday night's 5-2 loss. Keith had a turnover that led to a Marian Gaborik goal, and Seabrook struggled on Chicago's penalty-kill unit.

'I (have) got to be better. Doesn't just start with a penalty kill. It's every facet of the game,' Seabrook said. 'We all got to be out there doing the things that are going to make us win the game.

'I think some things happened last game that are uncharacteristic, but at the same time you have to give L.A. credit. They're forcing us into different situations. We (have) got to be better and we will be better.'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Hawks look for turnaround against Kings

CHICAGO (AP) - The special teams have been awful. The faceoff circle has been a huge problem. Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp have combined for one goal for the Chicago Blackhawks.

The defending Stanley Cup champions are in big trouble in the Western Conference final, down 3-1 to the rolling Los Angeles Kings.

But the Blackhawks are back at home for Game 5 on Wednesday night, and have dug out of similar trouble before.

''Just looking to win Game 5,'' coach Joel Quenneville said after the Blackhawks arrived back in Chicago on Tuesday afternoon. ''That's it. Get the momentum back and go from there.''

The previous time this series was in Chicago, the Kings seized the momentum with a five-goal third period in a 6-2 victory in Game 2.

It carried right over to a pair of impressive victories in Los Angeles that moved the Kings to the brink of their second Stanley Cup Final in three seasons.

Los Angeles has shredded Chicago's penalty-kill unit for five goals in its past 10 chances, while holding the Blackhawks to one power-play goal in their past 11 opportunities. Anze Kopitar and the Kings have won 58 percent (106 of 184) of the faceoffs during the win streak, taking the puck-possession Blackhawks out of their game.

''It's one of the things you look at with young centermen is how are they on faceoffs and are they working to improve on it,'' Los Angeles coach Darryl Sutter said. ''It's a special skill. It's one of those stats in hockey when you say you're 50 percent, you know, if that was us in school, we'd be going again.''

The Kings' big advantage against the Blackhawks is a far cry from the beginning of the playoffs, when they lost their first three games against San Jose. But they rallied past the Sharks in seven games, and then eliminated Anaheim after falling behind 3-2 in that series.

The twin rallies could help against Chicago. Los Angeles, which won the Stanley Cup in 2012, knows how important it is to quickly close out a team such as the Blackhawks while they are struggling.

''We're expecting their best,'' Kings center Trevor Lewis said. ''They're back at home now. We're expecting them to come out hard. I mean, they're defending Cup champions. I don't think they're going to give up by any means.''

A year ago, the Blackhawks were down 3-1 to the Red Wings in the second round when they headed home for Game 5. Andrew Shaw then had two goals in a 4-1 victory that sparked a series-saving winning streak for Chicago.

The Blackhawks also lost their first three games in the first round against Vancouver in 2011, and got all the way back to a 2-1 overtime loss in Game 7. They are drawing on those experiences for this series, while acknowledging the surging Kings are an entirely different problem.

''We're looking forward to getting out there tomorrow night,'' defenseman Brent Seabrook said. ''I know the guys were being upbeat on the plane this morning, at breakfast this morning. We're looking forward to getting out there tomorrow and trying to get some momentum back and start feeling good about ourselves again.''

Seabrook and defensive partner Duncan Keith had one of their worst games of the season in Monday night's 5-2 loss. Keith had a turnover that led to a Marian Gaborik goal, and Seabrook struggled on Chicago's penalty-kill unit.

''I (have) got to be better. Doesn't just start with a penalty kill. It's every facet of the game,'' Seabrook said. ''We all got to be out there doing the things that are going to make us win the game.

''I think some things happened last game that are uncharacteristic, but at the same time you have to give L.A. credit. They're forcing us into different situations. We (have) got to be better and we will be better.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL playoffs

Kings scored 14 goals in last seven periods, with five power play goals, to take 3-1 lead and can end series here; LA won five of last six games overall, is 6-4 on road in playoffs Chicago . had won ten of last 12 games vs Kings before losing last three games- they're 7-1 at home in playoffs, with only loss in Game 2 of this series. LA is 29-22 on road this season. Chicago was down 2-0 in first round to St Louis; they're 36-13 overall at home this year, they've given up 15 goals in last three games- they need to tighten up here, or season is over. Over is 10-5-4 in Los Angeles playoff games this spring,

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | TULSA at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more
40-15 since 1997. ( 72.7% | 23.5 units )

WNBA | TULSA at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (TULSA) horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 points or less
37-16 since 1997. ( 69.8% | 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | TULSA at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after a game where they covered the spread
701-484 since 1997. ( 59.2% | 168.6 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY YANKEES at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (NY YANKEES) below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games
66-24 since 1997. ( 73.3% | 33.8 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | DETROIT at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 80-35 (+41.8 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's MLB betting cheat sheet: C.J., Felix do battle

Boston O Party

The Boston Red Sox are one of the hottest Over bets going, improving to 7-1 O/U in their last eight games following a 6-3 triumph over the host Atlanta Braves. The Red Sox, who were 3-10-1 O/U prior to the streak, are +126 underdogs with the total set at 8 for Wednesday's rematch.

Making His Mark

Toronto Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle continued his red-hot start to the season, improving to 9-1 with 6 2/3 solid innings in a 9-6 victory over Tampa Bay. Buehrle leads all pitchers in money earned with $971, already surpassing his total of $731 from last season.

C.J.'s New Low

C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels face a total of 6.5 as they face Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners (-123) on Wednesday. The Angels are 4-0 in Wilson's four career starts as an Angel with the total below 7, though that hasn't happened since Oct. 1, 2012 - coincidentally against Hernandez.

Pitching Notes

* Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw hasn't been getting much help from his teammates against the Central Division. The Dodgers - listed at -194 Wednesday against visiting Cincinnati - have lost Kershaw's last five starts against the Central while scoring just five runs over that span.

* Being an underdog hasn't exactly agreed with New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, who is 0-5 against the moneyline in his last five starts as a 'dog. Kuroda and the Yankees (+124, 7.5) continue their series in St. Louis on Wednesday.

Hitting Notes

* The Kansas City Royals won't miss May, having batted .244 with a paltry nine home runs in 25 games so far this month. The Royals, who are 10-15 S/U and 12-11-2 O/U in May, renew acquaintances with the visiting Houston Astros (+145, 8).

* St. Louis outfielder Matt Holliday had three hits, including a homer, to lead the Cardinals (-149) past the New York Yankees 6-0 Tuesday night. Holliday has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight games, during which the Cardinals have gone 6-2 S/U and 3-5 O/U.

Totals Streak

Tampa Bay Rays (4-0 O/U): Scoring has come fast and furious over the Rays' last four contests, as they and their opponents have combined to score an average of 13 1/2 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 29-21-3 O/U for the season, including 14-12-1 away from Tropicana Field.

Prop of the Day

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Wednesday's game against the host New York Mets (-107, 7) as a +650 longshot to win by exactly one run. Fourteen of the Pirates' 23 victories this season have come by a run, the most in the majors.

Injury Notes

* Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis was scratched from Tuesday's lineup with a wrist injury he suffered during batting practice. Gattis - who had a two-homer game Monday against Colorado - isn't expected to return for Wednesday's game against Boston.

* Seattle Mariners left-hander pitcher James Paxton has been shut down after suffering a setback in his return from a left shoulder injury. Paxton won his only two starts of the season, and the Mariners are 5-1 S/U in his six career outings.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Citi Field should expect wind to blow in from right field at 7 mph for Wednesday's game between the host Mets and the Pirates. Teams combined to average a scant 5.67 runs in six games under similar wind conditions in 2013.

Umpire Note of the Day

Under is 10-1 in umpire Jim Reynolds' last 11 Wednesday games calling balls and strikes. Reynolds will be behind home plate for the game between the host Washington Nationals (-155) and the Miami Marlins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting Top 5: Baseball's best Under pitchers

With roughly a third of the major league season in the books, a handful of marquee pitchers have rewarded Under bettors handsomely.

Whether it's a long string of solid performances, a major lack of run support or both, these starters have consistently returned the best Under value since the start of the season. Some appear to be strong bets to continue the trend, while others will likely regress to the mean before long.

Here are five of the top Under pitchers heading into the final days of May:

Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds (1-8 O/U)

Simon has amazed in his first stint as a full-time starter since 2011, posting quality starts in eight of his nine outings to post the best Under mark of any pitcher with at least five starts. It has helped that the Reds haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in his appearances, scoring more than four runs just once. Simon has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his previous two seasons, but as the innings pile up - and the Reds offense wakes up - he should see fewer Under results.

Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (2-8 O/U)

Like Simon, Peralta has been a revelation, allowing no more than three earned runs in any of his first 10 starts while holding teams to two earned runs or fewer in nine of them. But he has just one win in his previous six starts thanks to a Brewers offense that has managed a combined nine runs in those outings. Peralta's career home/road splits are close to even and he's a strong second-half pitcher, suggesting his Under streak could continue for a while.

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels (2-7-1 O/U)

Richards has catapulted himself from fringe-average starter to pivotal piece of the Angels' run at a playoff spot, posting seven quality starts in his first 10 outings - during which the Angels have gone 7-3. He has been particularly stingy on the road, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1-5 O/U record in six starts away from Angel Stadium. Richards has allowed just one homer in his first 66 innings this season. That number should rise, which will lead to more Over results.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (3-8 O/U)

Teheran has been one of the top starters in baseball so far, posting a tidy 1.77 ERA with two complete-game shutouts already on his resume. The hard-throwing right-hander has been fortunate on the home-run front - five of the last six homers he has surrendered have been solo shots - and the Braves have scored just one run in three of his previous eight outings. Teheran should continue to be solid, but Atlanta's offense should improve, which will likely mean fewer Unders.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (3-7 O/U)

Scherzer opened his season with four straight Unders but has leveled off recently, registering Overs in three of his previous six appearances. The 29 year old could easily be 5-5 O/U at this point in the campaign, with back-to-back starts in mid-April falling Under the total by only half a run apiece. Scherzer has traditionally been a much stronger pitcher from June forward, but with the Tigers' offense always capable of racking up big totals, approach the Under here with caution.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 7 - Tigers/A's
100* Pirates -110
50* White Sox -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

10* NHL PERFECT PLAY
Chicago Blackhawks -141

The Kings lead this series 3-1 but it’s far from over in my opinion. Chicago will be desperate tonight and these games have been tight the Blackhawks will exert their home ice advantage and at this nice line thanks to the Kings prevoius wins we are getting a gift wrapped winner tonight. Take the Kings to win straight for a 10* play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACCUSCORE - MLB

AL EAST DIV GAME ML STREAK 6-1, 85.7% +536 -
TB 915 vs TOR 916 -- Over 50% on Toronto Blue Jays +105
AL WEST DIV GAME O/U STREAK 6-1, 85.7% +490 -
LAA 923 vs SEA 924 -- Under 6.5

ML-Home Line is -150 to -169 STREAK 9-3, 75% +270
HOU 913 vs KC 914 -- Over 50% on Kansas City Royals -155
CHC 903 vs SF 904 -- Over 50% on San Francisco Giants -160
MIA 907 vs WAS 908 -- Over 50% on Washington Nationals -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Oakland Athletics -115 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 32-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 32-25

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -136 over LA Kings
(Playoff Record: system 21-2: overall 21-14-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 111-88-3

Basketball Crusher
Miami Heat -130 over Indiana Pacers
(Playoff Record: 15-16-3, lost last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 93-101-8

Soccer Crusher
Sport Recife + Gremio OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 581-21, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 581-484-84

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Minnesota Twins -112 over Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners -124 over LA Angels
Houston Astros +150 over KC Royals


Hockey
Chicago Blackhawks + Los Angeles Kings OVER 5


Basketball
Miami Heat + Indiana Pacers UNDER 184.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo’s usual gloom and doom took a back seat to his broom Tuesday night as he swept with the Tigers and White Sox to reduce the IOUs to 1,085 hutchinsons.

Wednesday: Mr. Aitch, aka The Road Worrier, is counting on Fish to flog the Nats, Stauffer (San Diego) to cook the D’backs, and Bailey and the Reds to get their Irish up and cream the Dodgers. Ten units apiece.
Marlins
SD
REDS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE AQUINO/ERIC HENDERSON

MLB is back



Today's Selections


MLB: Kansas City (ML -145), Kansas City (RL +140), rays/jays under 9.5, padres/dbacks under 9


NHL: none


NBA: none


WNBA: none

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS INTERLEAGUE PITCHING REPORT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________________

#925 ATLANTA @ #926 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Braves RH Gavin Floyd (0-1, 2.49 ERA, WHIP: 1.263) - Floyd put together a strong start against Colorado on Friday, allowing two runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings, but was held out of the decision. The 31-year-old owns 24 strikeouts and just five walks in 25 1/3 innings since coming off the disabled list. Floyd, who spent most of his career in the American League with the Chicago White Sox, has a successful history against Boston with a 7-0 record and 3.21 ERA in nine career games - eight starts.

--KEY STAT: FLOYD is 31-51 (-25.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FLOYD 3.8, OPPONENT 4.5.

--FLOYD is 41-21 UNDER (+17.6 Units) in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FLOYD 3.6, OPPONENT 4.0.

•Red Sox RH John Lackey (5-3, 3.58 ERA, WHIP: 1.240) - Lackey scattered five hits over seven scoreless innings on Friday at Tampa Bay but was held out of the decision as the Red Sox suffered a 1-0 walk-off loss. The veteran has surrendered two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Lackey has made just one start against Atlanta in the past and allowed two runs in six innings without earning a decision.

--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 17-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 5.1, OPPONENT 2.5.

--LACKEY is 19-5 UNDER (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.0, OPPONENT 3.5.

--LACKEY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.5, OPPONENT 2.2.

--LACKEY is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.9, OPPONENT 3.9.

#927 BALTIMORE @ #928 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Orioles RH Bud Norris (3-4, 3.83 ERA, WHIP: 1.172) - Norris allowed four runs and six hits in six innings against Cleveland on Friday but got enough support to snap a three-start winless streak. The 29-year-old pitched well in his only previous start against a National League opponent this season, allowing one run in 5 1/3 innings against Pittsburgh to pick up a win. Norris has made 11 career starts against Milwaukee, going 4-3 with a 4.30 ERA.

--KEY STAT: NORRIS is 15-9 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2.

--NORRIS is 18-7 UNDER (+9.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Brewers RH Yovani Gallardo (2-3, 3.51 ERA, WHIP: 1.254) - Gallardo had his start pushed back a few days due to an ankle injury but proved the health of that joint while turning on a pitch and legging out the double on Tuesday. He is making his first start since going 3 1/3 innings at Atlanta on May 20 and has not won since April 6 while owning only one quality start in his last four turns. Gallardo is making his first ever start against Baltimore and is 5-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 16 career interleague outings.

#929 NY YANKEES @ #930 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (3-3, 4.55 ERA, WHIP: 1.298) - Kuroda has won just once in his last seven outings – that coming May 18 against Pittsburgh. He lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his last turn and gave up four runs (two earned) and eight hits in a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox. Kuroda is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals, all coming when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2008-11.

--KEY STAT: KURODA is 24-8 (+14.9 Units) against the money line against National League Central opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 5.2, OPPONENT 2.9.

--KURODA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.4, OPPONENT 3.4.

--KURODA is 14-2 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.3, OPPONENT 3.3.

--KURODA is 17-5 UNDER (+11.1 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.3, OPPONENT 3.4.

•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (6-3, 3.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.394) - Miller will try to lead the Cardinals to another victory, though he may need help from the bullpen for that to happen. He's 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA in his last eight starts, but the right-hander has failed to last at least six innings in five of his past seven outings. He had his five-start winning streak snapped Friday, when he pitched five innings and gave up four runs in a 5-3 loss to Cincinnati. Miller has gone 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA in four home starts this year and will be facing the Yankees for the first time. He's 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in five career interleague starts.

--KEY STAT: MILLER is 12-6 against the run line (+8.8 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 4.4, OPPONENT 3.3.

--MILLER is 13-6 against the run line (+10.3 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

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EZWINNERS

3* Astros +135

2* Braves +117

2* Twins -120

2* Tigers -101

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Allen eastman mlb
4*-kc-1.5+135
3* bluejays-105

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Doc Sports

mlb

4*-indians-105

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Philly Ross
3* Mets

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Tampasports

mets m.line

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Indian Cowboy

WNBA

3* #651. Take Over 157 Tulsa vs. San Antonio (Wednesday @ 8:05pm est)

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Robert Ferringo

mlb

1*dodgers-1.5+115
2*-wsox-105
1*-tigers+110
1*cards-125
2*-over 9 tex-minn
1*-under-7 pitt-nym
1*over 9-clev-wsox
2*-g.salami take over 121.5 runs

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Vegas Sports Informer

7* St.louis -125

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Derek Hayes

1* Under 8.5 Royals/Astros

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Toronto Blue Jays -102 over the Tampa Bay Rays (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:05 PM EST

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Mike Shuttlesworth

MLB Wednesday

Toronto Blue Jays -105 Triple Star

Minnesota Twins -112 Triple Star

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Raymond Dunavant

Pirates

[golden contender]

Wednesday card has the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Power systems and 2 Perfect Angles. In MLB We swept the board and tonight there is the 5* MLB Dog of the Month from a solid system and a 28-4 Totals Angle. Free MLB Play below


The MLB Free system is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 930 at 8:15 eastern. The Cardinals fit a powerful system that dates to 2005 and plays on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs at -140 or higher and had 10 or more hits with 1 or less errors, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits , like the Yankees tonight. New York is 2-7 as a road dog off a road loss by 5 or more runs. The Cardinals have won 5 of 7 as a home favorite off a home win by 5 or more runs. The Cards have a hot Shelby Miller on the mound and they have won 6 of his last 7 starts. Miller has won 7 of his last 8 home starts and has never allowed a run at home in the month of May in his brief career going 21+ scoreless the last 2 years. The Yankees counter with Kuroda who has lost 3 of 4 on the road and needs a night light as he has lost 6 of 7 starts at night. Kuroda is a mediocre 5-11 in his last 16 road May starts. With all the aforementioned data favoring St. Louis we will look their way tonight. On Hump day get on the giving end with 3 Big Plays. MLB Swept last night. Tonight we have the 5* Dog of the Month from a Huge dog system that has won 7 straight times. There is also a 28-4 totals Play and the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Powerful Playoff systems. Bang your Book good tonight. For the free MLB Play take St. Louis. GC

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won in the NHL Playoffs on Tuesday with the Canadians -$110/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" won on Tuesday in MLB in the American League with the White Sox -$165/Indians.

For Wednesday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Pacers +2.5/Heat.

For Wednesday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Dodgers -$190/Reds.

Ben lee is 3-1 +$87 for week thirty one 131-154-5 -$2650.

"Mr Chalk" is 23-23 -$572 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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Arthur Ralph's
Super Pick afternoon SF Giants w/ Lincecum -170
Blue Ribbon Nationals w/ Zimmerman -165
Free Play Royals w/ Duffy -170

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POWER PLAY WINS

Plays Of The Day

* Chicago White Sox -110
* Milwaukee Brewers -125
* Miami Heat -1.5

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Las Vegas Pipeline

20* Blackhawks

15* LAD -1.5

10* Pacers

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 7 - Tigers/A's
100* Pirates -110
50* White Sox -115
2000* Heat -2 (now down to 1)

Hitting 60.5% all time in 2000* plays (127 total plays)

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LineCatchers

Wednesday 5-28

Playersbet: St. Louis Cards ML

Jonathan Young: Kansas City Royals ML

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball 5/28

3 Units #518. Take Over 183.5 Miami vs. Indiana (Wednesday @ 8:30pm est)

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB Top Pick
(903) Chi Cubs +150

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

7* GOY – STL Cardinals-125

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WUNDERDOG SPORTS FREE PICK

Game: New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals
Time: Wednesday 05/28 8:15 PM Eastern
Pick: St. Louis -121 (moneyline)

It is going to be a difficult task for the Yankees in this one, as St. Louis has better pitching. The Yankees have also suffered when they surrender 5 runs or more in a game, where they are 1-18 on the season. Huroki Kuroda has not been the same pitcher this season, and at age 40, he may have little left in the tank. The Yankees have surrendered 49 runs in his last seven starts. Shelby Miller is having a strong season at 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA, and the only Yankees to have faced him are a combined 0-8, and New York has long struggled vs. pitchers they are seeing for the first time. The Yankees are just 3-14 in their last 17 as a road dog, and just 1-9 in Kuroda’s last 10 road starts. The Cards boast a 57-19 mark in their last 76 vs. a right-handed starter, which clinches it for me – play on St. Louis

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BOB BALFE FREE PICK

SELECTION:
NEW YORK YANKEES +120

(Kuroda / Miller)
With all being equal between these pitchers the walks that Miller gives up is alarming and always leads to more runs. Neither team has really impressed much this year. These teams really are mirror images of each other. Yesterday’s news, but great staffs that don’t take much time at all to get back on top. Walks kill in this league. Take the Yankees.

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Joe Gavazzi

MLB

Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) at LA Dodgers (Kershaw) (-1 ½ R, +125) 10:10 ET

4% LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R, +125)

The Reds have really struggled on the road this year, averaging just 3.3 RPG. In their most recent 13 road games, Cincinnati has gone 3-10, being outscored 58 to 34. Tonight, they enter on a 0-4 overall slide with a .224 BA against mostly aces. With last night’s 6-3 victory, LA has won 5 consecutive games on this field vs. the Reds. In their last 16 games, LAD has plated 77 runs, good for nearly 5.0 RPG. Bailey has a 5.34 ERA for the season, which is even worse at 6.58 in 7 night games, spanning 39 2/3 IP. In 5 road games, working 26 2/3, Bailey has a 6.08 ERA. That is even worse in his most recent 3 road starts where it is 8.04. After a rare bad outing, Kershaw returned to form working 6 innings, allowing no runs on 2 hits with 9 Ks of a 2-0 win vs. Philly. Run line players take note, 22 of 29 LAD wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 8/11 home victories. Four of Cincinnati’s recent road losses have come by 2 or more runs.



Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hendriks) (-105) 7:05 ET

3% Toronto (-105)

The Rays have been pounded by the Blue Jays the last 2 nights, losing by a combined score of 19-11. Though Archer is in good current form, not allowing an earned run in his last 112/3 IP, he has not pitched well on the road this year. Five road outings, spanning 28 1/3 IP, have resulted in a 5.08 ERA. That spells trouble vs. the booming Toronto bats. That strong hitting has resulted in current positive streaks of 18-5, 13-2, and 8-0. In that winning streak, the Jays have clouted 17 HR, hit .321, and averaged 6.3 RPG. In 30 recent appearances in MLB previous to this year, Hendriks had gone 2-13 with a 6.06 ERA. He was a meal ticket for us by fading him. This year, in 7 starts with Triple A Buffalo, Hendriks “flipped the switch,” going 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA. His first start in the Show saw him beat Oakland, 3-2, working 5 2/3 IP of 1 run ball, while allowing just 3 hits. Eventually that rubber band will snap. Let’s hope it’s not tonight!



Texas Rangers (Saunders) at Minnesota Twins (Gibson) (-115) 8:10 ET

3% Minnesota (-115)

When Saunders was injured in his first start of the season, it ruined our chances for extended success by fading him. That start was reminiscent of seasons past. Saunders lost 8-1 to Tampa Bay, working just 3 2/3 IP, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits with 3 walks. We will look to fade him every time he takes the mound. The Twins snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory vs. the Rangers last night. We reduce this rating a bit because Gibson has a 4.68 ERA and less than impressive 25/20 KBB. But, he has been at his best from this mound, where in 4 starts over 28 IP, Gibson has a 2.25 ERA. Let’s bank on that home success to continue against one of our favorite pitchers to fade.



NY Yankees (Kuroda) at St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) (-1 ½ R, +175) 8:15 ET MLB

4% St. Louis (-1 ½ R, +175)

After playing twice as many road as home games to begin the season, St. Louis has found their momentum in late May, during a string of scheduling in which they are playing 19/22 home games. The Cards have won 10/13 recent outings. That includes 6-0 last night against these Yankees. This pitching matchup, again, favors the Red Birds. Kuroda has a 4.55 ERA for the season, 4.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, and 4.65 ERA in 7 starts at night. But perhaps the most revealing stat about Kuroda is that in 11 road starts, dating to 2013, Kuroda is 0-7 with a 4.59 ERA. In his last 8 starts, Miller has gone 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Four home starts this year, over 24 2/3 IP, have resulted in a 2.19 ERA. We play this aggressively on the run line, as run line players will note: 19 of 24 NYY losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also, dating to the start of 2013, 56/69 St. Louis home wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 12/15 TY. Lay the runs and take back big money with the Cards.


Gavazzi NBA

NBA PLAYOFFS

Miami Heat (-2) at Indiana Pacers 8:30 ET TNT

4% Miami (-2)

Elimination game for the Indiana Pacers! Or, as the Miami Heat prefer to view it … a closeout game. It is just the type of game in which they have had a strong history of success. In fact, Miami is 8-0 SU in Game 5s, when they are leading 3 games to 1. Miami has truly “flipped the switch.” After closing the regular season 12-14 SU, the Heat have gone 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS in the playoffs. This includes 3 consecutive wins vs. Indiana, the last two by double digit margins. Monday’s 102-90 victory may have been the most complete victory in that span. The Heat got to the foul line 34 times, converting 30 of those attempts. They committed just 7 TOs. After a pregame pep talk, Chris Bosh proved why he should be considered a legitimate member of the Big 3. James led the way with 32/10/5, while Bosh added 25/6 and Wade contributed 15. Hibbert once again disappeared, failing to score. If that happens again, the Pacers have no chance. Prideful Indie will not want to whimper from the playoffs with a 4th consecutive defeat on their strong home court. But, it appears there is little they can do about it, if Miami plays with the “knee to the windpipe” attitude that has characterized the 4th quarter of this playoff series. History says they will.

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today

MLB Baseball

San Diego Padres / Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 (Total Runs Scored)

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Doc Sports

NHL

7-unit Game of Month

Black Hawks

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SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +135 over KANSAS CITY

The Royals have been outscored in the first two games of this series, 12-2. K.C. has now dropped three in a row and six of eight. Danny Duffy comes in with an ERA of 2.42 and WHIP of 1.02 after 10 games with four of those coming as a starter. Now we get the opportunity to sell Duffy at an inflated price because of his surface stats but his under the hood numbers tell a completely different story. Duffy’s xERA since being inserted into the rotation is 5.27. Over his last 23 innings, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. Poor control continues to undermine Duffy’s decent stuff and his xERA shows that walks and a high fly-ball % won't lead him to much success. More risk than reward here and pitching for a team that is seeing BB’s doesn’t help.

The Astros won 3-0 last night but that score was flattering to the Royals, as Houston just missed scoring three times that. Houston has now won four in a row while batting .337 over that span. Jarred Cosart put up an ugly 5.52 ERAin April and given the terrible skills he posted in 2013 he’s not likely to attract much attention. That said, he continues to possess some intriguing raw tools. His 94-mph four-seam fastball was among the top 10 highest in the NL in April and he continues to show a strong 54% groundball tilt. Cosart’s xERA in May so far is 2.97 but his unlucky strand rate of 69% has hurt his surface stats. Skill-savvy bettors have a close eye on Cosart and with the hot versus cold angle added, we’re happy to back the better pitcher at this price.


SAN FRANCISCO/Chicago Over 7½

This is an early start in San Fran (12:45 local) and it may surprise you to learn that summer days at AT&T favors hitters as opposed to the damp nighttime air that is particularly helpful to pitchers. Day games in San Fran produce more overs than unders but this total does not reflect that. Edwin Jackson is coming off a start in San Diego in which he was ripped for nine hits (2 jacks) and eight runs in just four frames. The start prior to that, Jackson threw a gem against the Brewers. This is all nothing new for Jackson, as he’s been an extremely erratic pitcher over his career throwing for eight different teams in 11 seasons. He's often in demand because of he eats innings and he’s almost always good for double-digit victories over the course of a season. The other side of that coin is why he’s deemed expendable. Jackson has severe ERA swings, a .467 lifetime win% and game-to-game volatility. It's difficult to trust the ball with someone whose dominant start/disaster start split has been on a three-year collision course. In day games over the past three years, Jackson is 14-17 with an ERA of 4.73 and a BAA of .279.

The decline of Tim Lincecum has been well-documented in recent seasons. After two Cy Young awards early in his career, Lincecum has a 4.83 ERA from 2012-14. After 10 starts this season, Lincecum has five quality one’s to go along with his 4.55 ERA. At home, Lincecum is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. In four day games, he’s allowed 32 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings for an ERA of 5.66. Lincecum has also walked 24 batters in 55.1 innings to push his WHIP to an alarming 1.61. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2014 among NL SP and it's not even close. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable, and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Check out the yearly SLG that batters have posted against his fastball over the past four seasons, starting in 2011: .400, .420, .455 and finally this year, .475. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches puts Lincecum near the top of undesirable “under” pitchers.


Baltimore/MILWAUKEE Over 8

Two hot hitting teams at a pitcher’s park with two very average pitchers going prompts us to step in without hesitation. In seven of the Orioles last eight games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more. In four of the Brewers last five games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more and it would come as no surprise if one or both of these teams scored seven or more again. Bud Norris finally escaped Houston in 2013 and while a move to a contender may help him generate more wins, his skills are simply not that good. Norris has allowed just 17 free passes in 56 innings, resulting in much improved control. However, it would be a welcome change, except his K rate has fallen with it. He's also generating fewer swinging strikes. What was a very good strikeout rate has fallen to league-average and the composite result is more balls being hit hard. In two starts at Miller Park over the past three seasons, Norris was tagged for 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 innings for an ERA of 7.71. That’s when he was better and the Brewers bats were worse. Milwaukee has hit .319 over the past week and they figure to keep it going here.

Don’t believe Yovani Gallardo’s 3.51 ERA for a second. Here’s a guy that has seen an erosion of his strikeout rate escalate into a freefall, moving him from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now his substandard command says some serious regression is coming in his actual ERA. Gallardo’s swinging strike rate is a low 5%. His BB/K split over his past 27 innings is 10/18. Gallardo has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts and it came against much easier competition than the bats he’ll face here. Gallardo’s skills are on the verge of falling off a cliff. He’s not going to miss many bats, giving these power-hitting Orioles with solid batting averages the opportunity to score plenty. Unless Gallardo gets very lucky, Baltimore will get to him often and early.

Pass NBA & NHL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Banks

Best Bet

#926 7:10 BOSTON RED SOX-140 LACKEY

MLB

#904 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS-160 LINCECUM
#908 7:05 WASHINGTON NATIONALS-150 ZIMMERMAN
#928-929 YANKEES-CARDINALS OVER 7.5

NBA

#517 8:30 MIAMI HEAT-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

St. Louis goes for its 11th win in 14 contests as it faces the Yankees and road challenged Hiroki Kuroda close out the three-game set. Kuroda is 0-7 with a 4.59 ERA in his past 11 road starts since winning at Texas on July 25. The Cardinals send Shelby Miller to the hill and he has pitched pretty well at home 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA in four home starts this year. In this rubber match, we expect the Cards to prevail. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-125)

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James Jones

MLB

2* Mets

2* Rays


NBA

2* Heat

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS - Troy Snipes

Texas Rangers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dominic Brando's

Center Ice Pick

Chicago Blackhawks-140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Ross

Added

1* Philadelphia Phillies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DENVER MONEY

MLB totals
Indians @ White Sox – Over 9
Red Sox @ Braves – Under 8
Padres @ Diamondbacks – Over 9
Yankees @ Cardinals – Over 7.5 +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney 50 DIME
heat/pacers OVER 184

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK

Tampa Bay Rays +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Miami/Indiana Under 184.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster Money Generator Plays

Rockies +115

Pacers +1.5

Blackhawks/Kings UNDER 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Art Aronson 10* Blockbuster


Miami/Indiana Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Falcon Sports

Blackhawks -135 (Game 5)

Blue Jays -105 listing Hendricks/Archer

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Big Dog Sports

NHL

Chicago Blackhawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

NBA

4 Units
518 Indiana Pacers +1.5 over Miami Heat

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Tapin Sports

2* INDIANA PACERS (+2)

We could probably play the money line here but the value isn't big enough to not take the points here just in case something absolutely crazy happens. I like the Pacers to win the game tonight as desperation is going to be the theme of the night for us and they have plenty of it. Just three games ago everyone thought they had righted the ship and presented a serious problem for the Heat on their run to a 4th straight NBA Finals appearance. Now, they once again are the team everyone is scratching their heads wondering what is going on. Hibbert once again was horrendous in Game 4 and will need to come up huge in Game 5. Home cooking hasn't been the best answer for him this postseason, but tonight will be the exception and he will once again be the difference while Bosh floats around the perimeter. INDIANA PACERS are the play here

2* MINNESOTA TWINS (-110)

Everything just says the Twins are the play of the day on the board. They face Joe Saunders coming off the DL, they picked up a nice walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th to tie the 4-game set, and today's lineup is as loaded as the Twins lineup can get with Mauer, Willingham, Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki and Arcia. Expect some runs to carry the Twins to the win today. MINNESOTA TWINS are the play.

2* CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (-143)

A little higher juice than we like to lay, but can't get away from the Blackhawks on their home ice in a desperation situation. The Kings are definitely on cruise control for the rest of this series and should be able to seal the deal and close this one out - but I think not until Gane 6 on their home ice. Chicago will be fired up for this one and should be able to get the 3 goals necessary against Quick and company, which most likely will be enough to win tonight. Chicago is 7-1 straight up on their home ice in this postseason and are 18-3 in their last 21 postseason games played in Chicago. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS are the play

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Scott Spreitzer

Seattle/LA Over 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

10* Blackhawks ML -135

10* reds/dodgers Under 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Human factor
Pacers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Delawarian 05-28-14

BetThisPick

30-8-1 L/39 plays

3* Pacers +1
3* Pacers/Heat UNDER 183.5
2* Yankees ML +116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton 50 DIME
heat/pacers OVER 184

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel dupont 100 DIME
Nationals (-145)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

Steam Move - 912 UNDER 6.5 (-125) CIN/LA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd 25 DIME
heat/pacers OVER 184

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting As A Business

MLB

Detroit (Sanchez) +112 / Oakland (Kazmir) 10:05 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Detroit)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes

NBA

1* Heat -1

1* Heat Over 183.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

cleveland/chicago-over total 9- best bet
texas-m.line
balt/milwaukee-under total 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

5/28

#906: Phillies: +100 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Lyles / Hernandez

#927: Orioles: +115 1.5*
Listed Pitchers: Norris / Gallardo


#905/906: Over Phillies 8.0 (-115) 2.5* Listed Pitchers: Lyles / Hernandez


#911/912: Over Dodgers: 6.5 (+100) 2*
Listed Pitchers: Bailey / Kershaw

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr meyer
3* Mia under 84

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ness

Over Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

50 Sea

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win (on a 2-1 NBA run):

1* GAME: Heat-Pacers o183 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Charlie Sports
500
pacer +2
under 184
arizona over 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

POD SFO Giants under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE SHEEP

all 1.000 moves

928 Milwaukee -125
916 Under 9.5 -130 TB sv TOR
927 Over 7.5 -125 Bal vs Mil
917 Cleveland -115
906 Philly -120
912 Under 6.5 -125 Cin vs LAD
929 NYY +120
518 Indiana +2
1518 First Half – Under 90.5 Mia vs Ind
518 Under 184 Mia vs Ind

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Parlay of day NBA
PACERS+2 & UNDER 184