5-31-14

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::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City (-3.5, 206.5)

San Antonio leads series 3-2.

The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from returning to the NBA Finals but have a dubious streak to overcome if they are to end the Western Conference finals on Saturday. San Antonio owns a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns to Oklahoma City, where the Spurs have lost nine consecutive games dating back to March 16, 2012. The Thunder easily won Games 3 and 4 at home and look to force a Game 7 in San Antonio.

The Spurs rolled to a convincing 117-89 victory in Game 5 as the home venue continues to be the most important facet of the series. San Antonio has won its three home games by an average of 26.7 points and lost the two outings in Oklahoma City by an average of 11. Thunder star Kevin Durant isn’t looking at a Game 6 win as a mere formality despite Oklahoma City’s long home-court domination of the Spurs. “We’re guaranteed 48 more minutes,” Durant told reporters. “It’s been an up-and-down series but we’ve got to find a way to come with it in Game 6.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as low as -3 and jump to -3.5. The total opened 206.5 and jumped to 207 before quickly dropping back down to 206.5.

INJURY WATCH: N/A

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The home team has obviously dominated this playoff series so far, going a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS. However, the level of dominance has been truly amazing.The home team has led by 23, 35, 20, 27, 33 point margins in the five games, while the road team's largest leads have only been 2, 5, 3, 8, 7 in each game before eventually getting blown out." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "In a series that has been dominated by the home teams - the average margin of victory for the home team through the first five games is 20.4 points - we expect the trend to continue in Game 6. We opened the Thunder at -3 and are now dealing -3.5, with the Thunder seeing all the action with 97 percent on the spread and 93 percent on the moneyline." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran power forward Tim Duncan was back on his game with 22 points and 12 rebounds after averaging 12.5 points and seven boards in the two losses in Oklahoma City. He shot a series-best 8-of-13 from the field in Game 5 and played with an extreme level of determination. “Just wanted to put a better one on the floor and, obviously, didn’t want to go down three games in a row,” Duncan said afterward. Duncan had more room to operate inside due to the decision to stretch the floor by starting perimeter-oriented Matt Bonner over center Tiago Splitter.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City’s longtime home dominance means nothing when the ball tips off in Game 6, and failing to win a 10th straight time would equate to a disappointing end to the season. The Thunder looked bad in Games 1 and 2 but bounced back, and coach Scott Brooks is at a loss to grasp the one-sided nature of each contest in the series. “It’s interesting, you really can’t explain it because both teams are really good and both teams compete, but it’s the way it is,” Brooks said after Game 5. “We have to regroup and come back better in a few days. We’ve always had a great comeback with better energy and better defensive attitude, and that’s what we’re going to have to come back with.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Spurs are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Spurs are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59 percent of bets are on Oklahoma City -2.5. 71 percent of bets are on Over 206.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs/Thunder #6: The Game Inside the Game
By JUSTIN HARTLING

Before Game #5 tipped off in San Antonio, the take here was one of this series being “a haystack filled with needles”, and what did Thursday bring to the databases? More of the same. Through five games there has not be a single 4th quarter minute in which the two starting lineups were going head-to-head, leaving the overall numbers through 240 minutes to be of little or no use. It is in adroitly sorting through the subsets that one can pave the way to a proper Game #6 handicap.

Off of those dismal losses in Oklahoma City the burden of adjustment fell to Gregg Popovich, who has not only built a Hall of Fame career by deftly making them, but was accustomed to experimentation with this particular group – he used 30 different starting lineups during the regular season. But on Thursday it was one that he had not used before that made the difference.

Popovich needed to get Serge Ibaka away from the basket to open up driving lanes, an integral part of the San Antonio offense, especially those unique passing angles in which forays to the basket end up being kicked out to 3-point shooters. The move was to start Matt Bonner instead of Tiago Splitter, despite the fact that a Bonner-Tony Parker-Tim Duncan-Kawhi Leonard-Danny Green quintet had only played together for 27 minutes the entire regular season, creating a lot of additional space for the Thunder to guard.

To say that it worked would be an understatement. The Spurs exploded for 65 first-half points on 25-41 shooting, with more than twice as many assists as turnovers. Ironically Bonner went 0-4 in the game and did not get a rebound, assist or steal, but his presence was enough to disrupt the OKC defensive chemistry. That did not change in the third quarter, and the game broke so wide open that when Tony Parker left at 2:05 he did not return, nor did Tim Duncan after his exit at 1:16. No San Antonio player logged more than Leonard’s 32:37, which makes it back-to-back games of low minutes across the board.

While Bonner stat line could not show his effectiveness, the one player that is emerging that can play a similar role is Boris Diaw. Diaw had 13 points, six rebounds and three assists over 28:10, after his double-double in Game #4, which will relegate Splitter even further down the bench as this series goes on. It is not that Splitter has played poorly; his particular talents are not as needed in this matchup. Diaw is playing with a lot of confidence, and creates matchup difficulties for the Thunder big men.

Much of the prelude here to Game #5 also focused on the dubious management of the OKC roster by Scott Brooks in Game #4, when Ibaka, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durrant logged far more minutes than they should have. It showed. It was not just the Popovich lineup change that broke down the Thunder defense, but also the fact that those defenders were a step slow. In Game #4 they had seven steals and six blocked shots in the first half; on Thursday it was six steals and four blocks for the entire game. If there was a silver lining to being blown out, it was getting those key cogs off the court much earlier this time (although Durant still logged a game-high 36:59).

Now to Saturday, where the markets have adjusted to OKC -3.5, and it would not be a surprise to see 4’s showing by tipoff. The Thunder have won and covered nine straight over San Antonio on this court since a loss in mid-March of 2016, with no game closer than six points, most of them at a high-market visibility. Brooks will have fresher legs to work with than on Thursday, and do not be surprised if he makes a counter of his own – if Splitter dos not start, there is no particular reason for Kendrick Perkins to open on the floor for the Thunder. It could end up being a lot of small-ball, and a more open flow, which can also impact the Total.

As for that Total, the Thursday flow put more of those needles into the haystack – a dead Over pace at halftime, and at 168 into the final stanza, before the one-sided nature of the game brought the flow to a crawl. The teams were already at 198 with 4:16 remaining, yet produced just eight points the rest of the way. The Spurs were 1-6 with two turnovers over that final stretch, providing yet more useless statistical data, and when you remove that from the equation their dominating offensive numbers go through the roof.

The pattern of Big First Half/Dead End-game has repeated throughout this series. It can lead to a more than reasonable conclusion that if there is a close game, and the requisite scrambling, the Total for Game #6 is too low. But you have to be careful with that – Popovich would not hesitate to wave a white flag if his team falls behind by a margin (as in Game #4), saving as much energy as possible for the Monday climax. Weighting that properly is part of the challenge, before you head to the betting windows and pull the trigger.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs-Thunder opening at high total despite trend
By JUSTIN HARTLING

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are still getting high totals from books despite going under in their past four games.

During this series the Thunder and Spurs have only topped the total in Game 1, since then the teams have averaged 198.8 points per game and have only cracked 205 points once. Overall this season between both the playoffs and the regular season, the teams have averaged a score of 203.7.

The current line for the game is 206.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs head to OKC

Oklahoma City (69-31) at San Antonio (73-26)

Western Conference Finals
Game 6 – Spurs lead series 3-2
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Oklahoma City -3.5, Total: 207

The Spurs look to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win on Saturday night against the Thunder.

This series has been dominated by the home team with SU and ATS wins in each of the first five games going to the host. Game 5 proved no different as the Spurs took the victory by a score of 117-89 as five-point favorites. They shot 51.3% from the field in the win and have now hit 50% or more of their field goals in each of their three home games. The contest got out of hand in the second half, and after the Spurs took a 10-point lead into halftime, they came out and outscored Oklahoma City by 18 in the final two quarters. Tim Duncan lead San Antonio with a team-high 22 points as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook just did not have the firepower to carry the team themselves, netting a combined 46 points in the loss. One area that the Spurs dominated was on the boards, out-rebounding the Thunder 48-35 while having six different players with 4+ rebounds.

Heading back to Oklahoma City should be interesting as the Spurs are one of the better road teams this year, going 32-16 SU (26-22 ATS) in away games while the Thunder are a solid 40-10 SU (28-21 ATS) at home. Going back three seasons, Oklahoma City holds a 13-9 SU (14-7 ATS) advantage when these two teams face off, and has won nine straight games SU and ATS when playing at home. In their two wins at home in this series, OKC has held the Spurs under 40% shooting in each game while forcing 14.5 turnovers per contest. Bettors should take notice that San Antonio is 12-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover two of their last three games ATS this season. On the other hand, the Thunder are 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in home games revenging a loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons. Neither team brings any significant injuries into this game.

San Antonio was one of the more efficient teams all season long and is hitting 49% of their field goal attempts in this postseason. They cannot get anything going in Oklahoma City though, making just 69-of-174 shots (39.7%) in the two contests of this series. PF Tim Duncan (17.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG in series) had a big double-double (22 points, 12 rebounds) in Game 5 but averaged just 12.5 PPG (40% FG) in the two games so far in OKC. One thing that has been missing from his game in these conference finals have been blocks as he has just four in the series after swatting away 1.9 BPG in the regular season. PG Tony Parker (14.2 PPG, 5.8 APG in series) had just twelve points in Thursday’s victory and has played more than 30 minutes just once in this series. He also struggled in the team’s two losses, netting just 11.5 PPG on 11-of-24 shooting.

SF Kawhi Leonard (10.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG in series) had his highest rebound total (7) of the series in Game 5 while adding 14 points on 4-of-7 shooting. He has not been aggressive against the Thunder, taking just 9.4 shots per game and hitting them at a 43% clip. SG Manu Ginobili (15.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG in series) had another solid game (19 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds) on Thursday and has been very efficient with his shot selection in this series, making 57% of his field goals, 61% of this three-pointers and is perfect (10-for-10) from the charity stripe.

Oklahoma City has been a great offense during these playoffs, scoring 102.2 PPG (45% FG), but have let the Spurs really slow them down to the tune of 96.4 PPG (45% FG) in this series. There has been a stark contrast between home and away though, as they are putting up 105.5 PPG in their two home games and just 90.3 PPG in San Antonio. SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG in series) had 25 points on 11-of-21 shooting in the Game 5 loss while taking just four shots from the free throw line; making just one. He has scored more than 30 points just once over the five games of this series after doing so in 8-of-13 previous playoff contests this year.

PG Russell Westbrook (25.4 PPG, 7.2 APG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 SPG in series) had 21 points to go along with seven assists and three steals on Thursday while taking a postseason low 12 shots. As usual, he was able to get to the free-throw line plenty, making 7-of-9 shots from there and is now 35-for-39 (90%) in the series. PF Serge Ibaka (10.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG in series) had just six points and two rebounds while adding two blocks in the loss on Thursday. He has seen his points and blocks decrease in each of the three games he’s played in this series. PG Reggie Jackson (10.0 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.0 RPG in series) put up double-digit points (11) for the third time in this series in Game 5 and has been on the court for 30+ minutes in two of the past three contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
90-46 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 39.4 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 4.7 units )

NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game
161-128 since 1997. ( 55.7% | 66.6 units )
21-18 this year. ( 53.8% | 11.5 units )

NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Saturday games
153-88 since 1997. ( 63.5% | 56.2 units )
18-10 this year. ( 64.3% | 7.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Oklahoma City

The Thunder look to stay alive in the series as they host a San Antonio team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.



SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 523-524: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.640; Oklahoma City 132.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Indiana

The Liberty (2-3) head to Indiana tonight to take on a Fever team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against a team with a losing record. New York is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 601-602: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.407; Indiana 107.423
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at Miami

The Marlins look to bounce back from their 3-2 loss to the Braves last night as they host an Atlanta team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Miami is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100). Here are all of today's picks.


SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Petit) 14.823; St. Louis (Wacha) 16.321
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over


Game 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 13.676; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.286
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Under


Game 955-956: Atlanta at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 14.773; Miami (Turner) 16.036
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); Over


Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 15.576; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.549
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under


Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 15.498; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.648
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Under


Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.378; Arizona (McCarthy) 14.826
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over


Game 963-964: Kansas City at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Brooks) 15.871; Toronto (Stroman) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 965-966: Minnesota at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.155; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.789
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Over


Game 967-968: Baltimore at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.886; Houston (Keuchel) 15.148
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Under


Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.773; Boston (De La Rosa) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over


Game 971-972: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.198; Oakland (Milone) 14.479
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Under


Game 973-974: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 15.683; Seattle (Young) 14.679
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over


Game 975-976: Texas at Washington (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 15.403; Washington (Fister) 14.676
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); Over


Game 977-978: San Diego at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 14.558; White Sox (Rienzo) 15.621
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under


Game 979-980: Colorado at Cleveland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 13.903; Cleveland (Bauer) 15.429
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben Lee won on Friday in the NBA Playoffs with the Heat -7/Pacers.

Ben lee lost on Friday in the NHL Playoffs with the KIngs -$130/Blackhawks.

"Mr Chalk" won on Friday in MLB in InterLeague play with the Nationals -$165/Rangers.

For Saturday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Spurs +3.5/Thunder.

For Staurday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Yankees -$240/Twins.

Ben lee is 7-5 +$127 for week thirty one 135-156-5 -$2780.

"Mr Chalk" is 24-24 -$617 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways

It is time to once again round the bases of the MLB Weekday Series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.

Dodgers – Josh Beckett, and what’s next

While Beckett’s no-hitter at Philadelphia on Sunday certainly came as a surprise, he has been around long enough that not many will be in a hurry to adjust their power ratings. He is not going to be considered a “find”. If anything, there are some metrics that will lead some in the marketplace to want to play against him, with a .211 BABIP and 85.4 percent LOB rate that are extreme baseball fortune through his nine starts, and especially on Friday, off of those 128 no-no pitches. But there is genuinely something good going on here that shows evidence of being sustainable, which will matter over the course of the season.

Beckett was on a Hall of Fame arc until 2010, when injuries began to take a toll. Injuries can wreck the career of a pitcher in The Show, and after he underwent surgery last July for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (a rib was removed that had been pressuring a nerve), the Dodgers were not entirely optimistic (hence, Dan Haren and Paul Maholm). But Beckett worked hard to rehab, and his velocity counts show him to be at full health – his last pitch that struck out Chase Utley on Sunday was clocked at 94 mph. Not bad, as the 128th offering.

Here is the key – because of a couple of trips to the DL, Beckett only worked 534 1/3 innings from 2010-2013. In that same span, there were 21 starters that worked over 800, and Beckett’s count checks in at #85. Could that lighter workload have actually enhanced his ability to pitch longer into his career, instead of the injuries short-circuiting it? It is an intriguing notion. And from a statistical standpoint it might be savvy to hit “delete” for 2013, with his last five starts tangling up data-bases with an 0-3/6.75 when he was clearly damaged goods (as a rule of thumb, bad outings by a pitcher before he goes on the DL need to be discounted in your data-bases).

Beckett has a lot of savvy on the mound, including the pressure of 13 post-season starts at 7-3/3.07. That understanding has him using his curveball more, and his sinker less, at this stage, and while the draining pitch count at Philadelphia could be a short-term issue, the confidence gained from that outing could be a major plus over time. Yes, the ensuing BABIBP and LOB rates will not allow his ERA to stay where it is. But there is another statistical takeaway that adds legitimacy to what he has accomplished so far – of the 108 pitchers that have worked 50 IP or more, his difficulty of batters faced (“DBF”) is #3. He has faced a collective OPS of .744, with only six teams posting a mark above that.

Red Sox – John Lackey, and another tale of Beckett

No, this is not going to be a tale of the Red Sox right-hander in a “Waiting for Godot” scenario, but instead a comparison with Josh Beckett, because there is much in common, and each could bring some value over the course of the summer. Both are veteran right-handers with a lot of savvy through their experience (Lackey has 104 innings over 19 post-season appearances), but may have had the rare fortune of injuries pro-longing their careers, instead of shortening hem. And again there is a case of discarding some counter-productive statistics from a time in which someone was pitching hurt, in order to have a better database.

Lackey’s career could have been over after 2011, a 12-12/6.41 campaign for the Red Sox that should have ended much earlier than it did – an elbow that was going to need Tommy John surgery had nothing left down the stretch, with an 0-3/8.22 over his last six starts that was keyed by 43 hits vs. only 17 K’s. Highlight those games in your data-base, then hit delete, because they do not measure his ability in any meaningful way.

Going through rehab at the age of 33 is not easy. But Lackey did that in 2012, and for as arduous as those processes are, at the same time it was saving his arm from a year of MLB innings. He was slow out of the gate in his 2013 return, opening 1-4/4.05, but then regained the form of his best years, and it was capped by a 2.77 over 25 post-season frames. Counting that October run he is at 3.39 over 286 IP since his return, with 249 K’s vs. only 60 walks. Only once in his 10 pre-surgery seasons did he sport a lower ERA.

The key is that there is evidence that Lackey may be getting even better. His K’s-per-9 are at 8.5 so far, compared to a career 6.8. His walks-per-9 are 1.8, vs. a 3.0 previously. A .322 BABIP tells us that there has not been any geometry in his allowance, although that does factor this misfortunate of pitching in front of a Boston defense that is dead last at .318 in the category. And he has been doing this against a high level of competition – of the 50 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 IP, his DBF is #18. The latter lends added weight to a current xFIP of 3.13 that is a career best, yet something the markets are not appreciating.

Rays – Evan Longoria’s power decline

The Rays have made this column several times already, all for the wrong reasons, and it has added up to a 23-31 mark through the first third of the season. Much of that has been about the injuries that hampered the starting rotation in the early going, which was forcing Joe Madden to deftly juggle his bullpen, and also to occasionally have to use David Price too long in games (his follow-ups from high pitch counts remain problematical). The last thing they needed were problems at the plate, and while the good news is that Ben Zobrist returns this weekend, the bad is that Longoria’s power has been missing.

Longoria was sensational in 2013, a .269/.343/.498, with 32 home runs, plus superb defense. It was a Top 10 campaign among position players through just about any of the advanced WAR-type metrics. At only 28 entering this season, one could make a case that his best was still ahead. But at the one-third mark of the 2014 schedule here are the numbers - .264/.325/.377, with only five HR’s. The .264 would be his career low, despite being amped a bit by a .319 BABIP. The on-base is far below his career .355, with a 7.7 percent walk rate drastically off of the 10.7 precedent.

But the real issue is the power. Longoria’s career SLG’s have been .531, .526, .507, .495, .527 and .498. That is a model of consistently, so the current .377 is a cause for alarm this deep into a season – slap hitters like Brett Gardner (.384) and Dee Gordon (.378 to Thursday) are right above him! And it is not as though there have been any recent positive signs – he has one extra base hit, a solo HR, over his last 17 games, and outside of that blast only one other rbi.

Longoria is not protected well by a mediocre lineup, but the problem with that conventional thinking is the walk rate – one would expect it to be higher, as pitchers worked around him. It isn’t. The power drainage comes from the nature of his contact to this point. While his line drive rate has been solid, the 44.8 percent ground-balls are a career high (no other season above 39.1), while the 32.1 percent fly-balls are by far a career low, with no other season below 40.5. Those tables bear watching closely – until there is more elevation, those power counts are going to remain low. And the Rays simply can’t afford that these days.

Marlins – Steve Cishek (quietly) rolls on

Even without Jose Fernandez the Marlins have a legitimate chance to hang around in the N.L. East, largely because the Braves lack the punch, and the Nationals the health, to establish any distance in the standings. And with Memorial Day having passed it is time to look at a guy that will make a significant difference in their playoff chase, yet one that remains remarkably under the radar.

Memorial Day was used as the reference point, because it was at that time last season that Cishek settled in to his groove, and what a groove is has been – over a full 162-game cycle he has worked to a 1.41 tune, with 40 saves in 42 chances. If you do that in an individual season you are in the Cy Young race; do it over a different calendar cycle and not many notice.

Cishek’s career allowance is now at 2.41 over 206 appearances, backed up by three prime peripherals – a 9.6 K’s-per-9; 52.8 percent ground ball rate; and only 0.3 HR’s-per-9, at a 4.3 ratio of HR’s per FB. Consider where that puts him - of the pitchers that have worked at least 200 innings since he came up in 2010, how many others have more than 9.0 K’s-per-9 and a GB rate over 50 percent? Only Johnny Venters. Yes, the HR rates might seem to be outliers, but his style could keep it at that level – of 81 batters faced this season there have only been 14 fly ball outs. It is tough to square the ball up against him and get it in the air.

The Marlins are not a deep team, and as such there is not much margin for error – 11 of their wins have come by a single run. But while they can make them appearing unimposing, the ability of Cishek to cement those close wins needs to be factored carefully in your processes.

Royals – The Hitting Coach Carousel

Early in the season there was a take here on the continued lack of development of the Kansas City offense, despite having a cluster of talented young players all come up through the system around the same time (http://www.***********/articles/arti...?theArt=368665). After 52 games of continued misery at the plate it was time for a change on Thursday, with hitting coach Pedro Grifol being “reassigned”, and Dale Sveum promoted to the role. That continued a bizarre shuffle that makes Sveum the sixth to take on that role since the end of the end of the 2012 season, when Kevin Seitzer was fired. And it almost assuredly has played a part in the lack of development of those young hitters.

First note that the firing of Seitzer not only started the chain reaction, but may have been the worst move of all. His current job? Hitting coach in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are bashing the ball better than anyone else in the Majors. There was some concern when the OPS fell off from .744 (#7) to #.716 (#15) from 2011 to 2012, which led to his dismissal, but since then it has been a free fall – the Royals only managed a .694 LY, rating #21, and so far this season they are tied for #29 at .659, with a .352 SLG that is dead last.

Kansas City is not just last in HR’s with 22, but last by a wide margin. Salvador Perez leads the team with five; 93 other players have that many. And Sveum understands where the problem is, as he told the Kansas City Star – “Elevation. We’ve swung at pitches down in the zone way too much. And from thigh high to the top of the strike zone, we’re not doing enough damage.” The numbers back that up – while they do have the best strikeout rate in the Majors (only 15.3 percent), it has come from putting too many ground-balls into play, a 49.6 rate (only Pittsburgh has done it at a higher clip).

How much difference can Sveum make? Having been a manager he is aware of how massaging egos is a big part of the process. But with so many different hitting coaches over such a short cycle, it is going to take a lot of skill to sort through what has been baseball chaos. Perhaps some of these players are not as bad as they have shown, but the team simply has not created the atmosphere for development. This will be a good place to focus your handicapping microscopic as the season progresses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

100 Dimes - Oklahoma City Thunder -3 1/2 at home over the San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

SATURDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (NBA TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 42 of the last 52 home games when the total posted is between 200 and 209.5 points and they have won 23 of the last 28 games when playing on a Saturday.Oklahoma City has won 5 of the last 6 games when trailing in a playoff series and they are averaging 107 points a game at home this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play NY Yankees -240 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York has won 70 of the last 108 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 77 of the last 129 day games.New York has won 94 of the last 172 games coming off a loss in their last game and they have won 40 of the last 60 games after scoring one run or less in their last game.

================================================== ===



50* Play Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington -140 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

10* Play Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (Top NBA Play)

==================================

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Baltimore +110 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston is 30-79 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Houston is 36-72 in home games the last two seasons
Houston is 34-74 in day games the last three seasons


10* Play Cincinnati +100 over Arizona (MLB TOP PLAY)

Arizona is 14-24 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Arizona is 13-20 coming off a loss in their last game
Arizona is 7-14 coming off two or more home games

=============================================

5* Play Colorado +110 over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Los Angeles Angels +110 over Oakland (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
--No play tonight. I'm taking the day off today as I need to re-group and change my current strategy. Kyle's pick is below.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees - YANKEES -1.5 (-118)
Listed Pitchers: Correia vs. Tanaka
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
Another wasted pitching effort, as the Orioles got a run early but that was it for them. The Astros scored 2 runs in the 7th with 2 outs off back-to-back doubles to take it 2-1.
Masahiro Tanaka has been everything he was advertised to be before he joined the New York Yankees this season. The Yankees won the bidding war for the prized pitcher, and so far, their investment is most definitely paying off. Tanaka has a 7-1 record and his ERA is only 2.29. He hasn't surrendered more than 3 runs in a game all year long in through 70.1 innings pitched. His numbers are consistent across the board and it really doesn't matter if he's at Yankee Stadium or playing away. He's holding opposing teams to an average of less than a runner on base per inning with a 0.98 WHIP. This one should be a major pitching mismatch. The Twins look to counter with Kevin Correria who hasn't sniffed the kind of success Tanaka has had this season. In his past ten starts he's let up more than 3 runs on six separate occasions. His overall ERA is nearly identical to what he has done in the last three games. Consequently, he is pretty good at being bad consistently. His overall ERA in 2014 is 6.34, compared to his last three games, 6.35. Some of his best work, if you can call it that, has actually come on the road, posting a 5.24 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and .347. It is difficult to find anything good from Correria, but it is better than his home ERA of 7.09. I find it hard to come to a conclusion as to why he is still employed, considering his past three seasons he's churned out plus 4.00 ERA's in each of them. He'll be lucky to finish with an ERA below 5.00 with the way things have gone. If the Yankees are serious about making the playoffs, this is one of those games you just have to win behind your ace facing a scrub. I'll lock in the Yankees to win at -1.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play On - Any team (INDIANA) well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games
56-25 since 1997. ( 69.1% | 28.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play On - Any team vs the money line (INDIANA) up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their free throws or worse
31-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.3% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in May, June, or July games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
115-83 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 49.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | COLORADO at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 63-32 (+35.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sat

Over 206 Spurs/Ok City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Braves/Marlins over 7.5

NYY -1.5 -118

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Luca Fury

MMA bets

Silverio (-410) parlayed with Carmont (-150) @ +107
Mousasi (-280) parlayed with Kevin Souza (-330) @ -133
Rony Jason (-280) parlayed with Pedro Munhoz (-255) @ -112
Maia (-460) parlayed with Blanco (-210) @ -123

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY

***** Saturday, 5/31/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ ___

NBA Playoff Journal (May 30)
San Antonio's Tim Duncan put it best, "This is the craziest series I've ever been involved in." The Spurs connected on 57.5 percent in Game #1 and 50.0 percent in Game #2, averaging 117.0 PPG at home to take a 2-0 lead in the series. However, Serge Ibaka's unexpected return when the series shifted to Oklahoma City made a HUGE impact. Oklahoma City looked like a new team, playing with renewed confidence and energy, OKC's youngsters rolled past their veteran counterparts in Games #3 and #4 to tie the series at two-all. The Thunder appeared to have things figured out, as OKC played a more physical defensive style in Games #3 and #4 plus used its length and athletic ability to disrupt the Spurs' normally precise offense.

That is until the Spurs got to return home Thursday night. The first quarter ended 32-all but San Antonio opened a 10-point lead by halftime. The Spurs then doubled that advantage, taking a 20-point lead into the 4th quarter, before extending the lead even further in an eventual 117-89 victory. San Antonio was back to playing its game, shooting 51.3 percent as a team, including a blistering 13 of 26 on threes. The Spurs started Matt Bonner in place of Tiago Splitter to draw Ibaka out of the paint and it worked early. It also helped defensively, as Ibaka attacked Bonner but missed his first FIVE shots on a series of running hooks. Duncan also was able to help defensively, rolling over to block a layup attempt by Ibaka.

Duncan and Ginobili both played poorly in Game #4 but each one responded with excellent Game #5 efforts. Duncan had 22 and 12, while Ginobili made 7 of 9 shots for 19 points (also added four rebounds and six assists). That DEEP San Antonio bench won "the battle of the reserves," 55-to-26! Ibaka was totally neutralized (six points and two rebounds in 27 minutes), while Durant added a 'quiet' 25 and Westbrook, off that 40-point game, scored a modest 21. The Thunder scored only 34 points in the second half, after scoring 32 points alone, in the first quarter.

The Spurs have won SEVEN straight home games by at least 15 points, dating back to Game #7 of the first round against Dallas. That is the longest such streak in National Basketball Association playoff history! The Thunder may have erased a 2-0 best-of-seven series deficit by tying the series 2-2 but they are now down 3-2 and must win Game #6 at home and then Game #7 at San Antonio, to capture the series. NBA playoff history tells us that teams down 0-2 which "get even" at two-all, have gone on to win just 15 of 70 previous series (that's just 21.4%).

Thursday evening marked another win and cover by the home team here in the conference finals. That makes it 9-1 straight-up and versus the number, after home teams just barely won 50 percent of their games SU the first two rounds (38-34 or .528). Home teams were a woeful 27-43-3 ATS (that's 39.1%!) those first two rounds but have fought back to stand 47-35 (.573) for the postseason to-date, going 36-43-3 ATS (45.6% or minus-11.3 net games). Over players have had the best of it so far this postseason but under bettors have now won THREE nights in a row, staying under by one point, a half-point and one point, respectively! Still, the tally since the start of the 2014 playoffs is 46 overs and 36 unders, a 56.1% edge favoring over bettors. "Zig-Zaggers" won with the Spurs Thursday night and remain a "small winner" since the beginning, at 36-29-3 ATS (plus-4.1 net games).

We are back in South Beach for Game #6 of the Eastern Conference finals Friday night, as the Pacers look to take Step No. 2 in an attempt to accomplish the improbable, come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a best-of-seven series. There have been 222 teams in NBA history to have fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series but just EIGHT of those teams (a 'whopping' 3.6%) have come back to win. Making it even tougher on Indiana is the fact that the Pacers will need to make their 3-1 comeback versus the two-time defending champs, looking to join the Celtics and Lakers by reaching a FOURTH straight NBA Finals. The Pacers realize that this journey seems like "a bridge too far" but their Game #5 win broke some new ground (the Heat had been a PERFECT 7-0 in Game Fives when holding a 3-1 lead in the LBJ/Wade/Bosh era, which began in 2011), so maybe the Pacers are "on to something?"

Then again, maybe they aren't. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra almost never holds a practice the day after a road game, especially when the team plane lands around 3:30 a.m. However, Spoelstra deviated from the norm on the day before Game #6 of this East title series, not for any one on-court issue but rather so the two-time defending NBA champions could relieve some frustration. "Clear heads ...and to connect," Spoelstra said. "We didn't want to leave it all to tomorrow. There were some things we wanted to go over, and for time's sake, splitting it up was a little bit more efficient."

Incredibly but we guess predictably these days, the talk on the off day wasn't so much about Paul George scoring 37 points to lead his team to a season-saving win, or even how LeBron James was held to seven points (a career playoff-low) on a night that he was rendered silent for long stretches because of foul trouble. Rather, the buzz was almost entirely about Lance Stephenson, who has simultaneously become a Heat frustration and Internet sensation.

Images of his already-infamous ear-blowing stunt were widely distributed on social media moments after it occurred in Game #5 and he didn't back down Thursday when asked about his desire to pester the Heat. "Just playing ball, man, having fun and enjoying the moment," Stephenson said. Spoelstra didn't react when Stephenson, who said James was showing signs of "weakness" earlier in the series, crashed the Heat huddle. Much like his players, Spoelstra didn't bite when asked about the excitable Pacer guard's attempts to throw Miami off its game. ESPN carries Friday evening's game at 8:30 PM EST, with the Heat favored by 7 1/2 points (total is 182 1/2).
_______________________

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______________________________

Western Conference Finals

#523 SAN ANTONIO @ #524 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -4, Total: 206.5) - The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from returning to the National Basketball Association Finals but have a dubious streak to overcome if they are to end the Western Conference finals on Saturday night. San Antonio owns a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns to Oklahoma City, where the Spurs have lost nine consecutive games dating back to March 16, 2012. The Thunder easily won Games #3 and #4 at home and look to force a Game #7 in San Antonio.

The Spurs rolled to a convincing 117-89 victory in Game #5 as the home venue continues to be the most important facet of the series. San Antonio has won its three home games by an average of 26.7 points and lost the two outings in Oklahoma City by an average of 11. Thunder star Kevin Durant isn’t looking at a Game #6 win as a mere formality despite Oklahoma City’s long home-court domination of the Spurs. “We’re guaranteed 48 more minutes,” Durant told reporters. “It’s been an up-and-down series but we’ve got to find a way to come with it in Game #6.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (73-26 SU, 53-46-0 ATS): Veteran power forward Tim Duncan was back on his game with 22 points and 12 rebounds after averaging 12.5 points and seven boards in the two losses in Oklahoma City. He shot a series-best 8-of-13 from the field in Game #5 and played with an extreme level of determination. “Just wanted to put a better one on the floor and, obviously, didn’t want to go down three games in a row,” Duncan said afterward. Duncan had more room to operate inside due to the decision to stretch the floor by starting perimeter-oriented Matt Bonner over center Tiago Splitter.

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (69-31 SU, 52-45-3 ATS): Oklahoma City’s longtime home dominance means nothing when the ball tips off in Game #6, and failing to win a 10th straight time would equate to a disappointing end to the season. The Thunder looked bad in Games #1 and #2 but bounced back, and coach Scott Brooks is at a loss to grasp the one-sided nature of each contest in the series. “It’s interesting, you really can’t explain it because both teams are really good and both teams compete, but it’s the way it is,” Brooks said after Game #5. “We have to regroup and come back better in a few days. We’ve always had a great comeback with better energy and better defensive attitude, and that’s what we’re going to have to come back with.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Spurs SG Danny Green was just 4-of-16 shooting in the two previous games in Oklahoma City – he is 17-of-27 (including 15-of-23 from 3-point range) in the games played in San Antonio.... Thunder PG Russell Westbrook had 21 points in Game #5 – well below the 40 he put up in Game #4 – and is averaging 25.4 points in the series.... San Antonio G Manu Ginobili is 14-for-23 from 3-point range in the series while averaging 15.2 points.... OKC is 12-4 versus the spread (75.0%) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Spurs are 25-16 against the spread (60.9%) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game, including 21-11 ATS (65.6%) 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 609 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 366 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 514 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 466 times. In 1000 simulated games, 558 games went under the total, while 442 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 605 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 373 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under first half total, while 454 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-42 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-37 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 84 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 45-43 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--45 of 86 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Spurs are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Spurs are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Under is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Under is 5-0 in Thunder L5 after allowing 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), revenging a blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(72-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.9%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (74-37 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 97.4 (Average point differential = +5.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 45 (40.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (10-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (197-203).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

*BIG TOTAL ALERT* Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP!

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder May 31 2014 8:30PM

Prediction: Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SATURDAY BASEBALL




Play Colorado +110 over Cleveland---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
3:10 PM EST


Franklin Morales has won 12 of the last 20 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has won 13 of the last 23 road games. Franklin Morales has won 9 of the last 13 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has won 11 of the last 20 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher.





Play Cincinnati +100 over Arizona----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
10:00 PM EST


Brandon McCarthy has lost 8 of the last 10 games when pitching in the 1st half of the season and he has lost 14 of the last 21 games when the line posted is between +100 to -150. Brandon McCarthy has lost 6 of the last 7 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 27.04 vs. Cincinnati over his career.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SATURDAY



Play Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST


Oklahoma City has won 39 of the last 55 games coming off a road loss in their last game and they have won 31 of the last 42 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.Oklahoma City has won 40 of the last 50 home games and they have won 37 of the last 49 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1* Rangers +125
1* Indians -130
1* Angels +110
1* D-Backs -107

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 8 - Astros/Orioles
100* Braves -115
50* Nationals -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Red Sox(-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHEEP

Boxing – Carl Froch -165 $1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

15* MLB HOME COOKING
Houston Astros -123

This game features the 27-27 Orioles at the 24-32 Astros. I never thought I would say it this season but the Astros are a nice young team all the years of losing are paying off with some top talent and it's evident on the field. Anytime the Astros are laying juice like this they have to be a play. Dallas Keuchel is 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA and has been lights out he's going against a guy with middle of the road stuff in Chris Tillman who has a 4.97 era. This line has really moved even with a 50/50 split. Take the Astros.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed Picks

NBA

Thunder- 4
Thunder/ spurs over 206.5


MLB

Astros -125
Yankees- 1.5
Rangers +125
White sox
Diamondbacks- 105
Rockies- 124
Braves- 120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Houston Astros -120 over Baltimore O's
(System Record: 34-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 34-26

Hockey Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 23-2: overall 23-15-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 114-89-3

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over OKC
(Playoff Record: system 16-1: overall 16-18-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 94-103-8

Soccer Crusher
Sao Paulo + Atletico ** OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 582-21, lost last game)
Overall Record: 582-486-84

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Miami Marlins +105 over Atlanta Braves
Oakland Athletics -126 over LA Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over Pittsburgh Pirates


Hockey
no play


Basketball
San Antonio Spurs + Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 207

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Marlins still have the best home start in club history as they have gone 20-9 so far this season at home. They try and bounce back from a 3-2 defeat on Friday night to these Braves as the Marlins will send Jacob Turner (1-2, 5.35 ERA) to the mound. The Braves will counter with Ervin Santana (4-2, 4.06 ERA), who has been hit around pretty good over his last three outings. The Braves have struggled a bit on the road so far, winning just three games in their last 13 road efforts. Santana started this season lights out, going 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA, but has struggled in his last three starts. A pretty interesting trend we found for this matchup shows you that the Marlins have struggled against good teams with Turner pitching. The Marlins are 1-7 in Turner’s last eight starts against teams with a winning record. The Braves get game two of this series today. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ATLANTA BRAVES (-112)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HARRY BONDI FREE PICK

MLB
SEATTLE (+120) over Detroit
10:10 p.m. ET

We like the spot here for the Mariners, who send underrated Chris Young to the hill. The right-hander has pitched very well in this ballpark with a 2-0 record and 1.65 ERA in four starts. He’ll be aided by an offense that has teed off on lefties this season. Seattle is 14-8 (+6.7 units) against southpaw starters this season and Tigers starter Drew Smyly has been scuffling, posting a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. Take the home dog!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Ross

MMA

2* Blanco
2* Caramount
2* Strickland
2* Maladano

1* Demian Maia Parlayed with Mousasi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rochestertitans

UFC : HEIN-125 (5UNITS)

MLB

Indians-125 (5units)
Phillies Under 8 (5units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo, ping-ponging back and forth over the four-figure line, dipped below the magic number Friday night when the Bucs dunked the Dodgers to trim the deficit to 965 bahnsens.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch will revert to Tepesch mode — 10 units on the Rangers to punch out Mr. Fister. As for his night move, 10 on Cueto and the Reds to bring down the D’backs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAY WINS

NATIONALS-140
ATLANTA-115
REDS
OAKLAND A's-120
SPURS/OK CITY OVER 206 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Ross

Soccer

2* Italy -141 over Rep of Ireland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

MLB

3* Cleveland Indians -130

3* Los Angeles Dodgers -150

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Docs Sports

MLB

4* Houston Astros -130

3* Los Angeles Angels +105

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Allen Eastman

MLB

3* New York Yankees -1.5 -125

2* Houston Astros -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MYSYSTEMPICKS

OKC -3.5 (3u)

STL -166 (2u)
BAL +122 (1u)
COL +122 (1u)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRYAN LEONARD

980 Colorado at Cleveland
The Rockies started the year on fire but have since returned to the pack. A major reason has been its play on the road. Colorado is hitting over 100 points better at home than on the road. Morales has talent but he hasn’t put it altogether in any MLB stop.
Bauer is another talented hurler who fought with his coaching staffs in his younger days. Now word out of Cleveland is that he is being receptive to the ideas of others and it’s helping his work on the field. Cleveland is a better team at home right now and the Rockies struggle outside of altitude.

2-Unit PLAY CLEVELAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Good Day for Road Dogs

A half-dozen road underdogs prevailed in Friday's action - led by the red-hot San Francisco Giants (+136), who battered St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright en route to a 9-4 victory over the Cardinals. Other road dogs to win included Minnesota (+127) and Kansas City (+118).

Back to Even

The Milwaukee Brewers (-165) evened their O/U record for the season at 26-26-3 with an 11-5 drubbing of the Chicago Cubs on Friday night. The Brewers were the hottest Under play in the early going - opening the season 7-16 O/U - but have gone 19-10-3 since, including four straight Overs.

Masa a Massive Fave

The New York Yankees are by far the biggest favorite of the day, entering at -235 against the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees will roll with rookie sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who is 7-1 with a 2.29 ERA and ranks 13th in the majors in units won ($+476).

Pitching Notes

* Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu will look to end his home struggles in Saturday's showdown with visiting Pittsburgh (+130, 7). Ryu is 1-2 with a 7.08 ERA in four home outings despite being a favorite of -120 or better in each of them.

* Houston Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel is a favorite for the first time this season as he prepares to face visiting Baltimore (+111, 8). Keuchel has fared well as an underdog so far in 2014, going 7-3 against the moneyline; he's also on an 0-3-1 O/U streak following five consecutive Overs.

Hitting Notes

* Cincinnati slugger Jay Bruce is mired in a 7-for-57 slump with just one RBI over his last 17 games. The Reds are 8-9 S/U and 8-9 O/U over that stretch as they prepare to face the host Arizona Diamondbacks (-103, 7.5).

* Oakland third baseman Josh Donaldson is heating up; he went deep twice Friday night and has five home runs and 10 RBIs over his last six games. The Athletics are 3-3 S/U and 4/2 O/U in that span as they resume their series with the visiting Angels (+110, 7.5).

Totals Streak

Detroit Tigers (11-1-0 O/U): There has been no hotter over play over the past two weeks than the Tigers. Detroit has scored five or more runs in three of its last four games while the pitching has improved since allowing 34 runs over a three-game span.

Prop of the Day

The Cincinnati Reds may be a strong runline play Saturday, coming in at +400 to beat Arizona (-109, 7.5) by four or more runs. Reds starter Johnny Cueto ranks second in the majors with a 1.83 ERA while Arizona counterpart Brandon McCarthy has lost five games by four or more runs in 2014.

Injury Notes

* Oakland first baseman Brandon Moss will miss at least one game with tightness in his right calf. Moss is hitting just .179 over his last 11 games, during which the Athletics are 5-6 S/U and 4-6-1 O/U.

* Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams is headed to the disabled list with tightness in his left calf. St. Louis is 11-1 S/U on the season in games in which Adams records at least one RBI.

Weather Watch

* Wind at Fenway Park will blow in from center field at 6 mph for Saturday's game between the Red Sox (-105, 9) and the Tampa Bay Rays. Teams averaged 6.72 runs while hitting .223 in seven games under similar conditions in 2013 - well below the stadium averages of 9.04 runs and .261.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 8-0 in umpire Lazaro Diaz's last eight interleague games behind home plate. Diaz will call the balls and strikes for Saturday's matchup between the visiting Texas Rangers (+131, 7) and the Washington Nationals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins

TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pirates are 0-11 since September 14, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 9-0 since September 05, 2010 if not a dog of 170+ after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $1098.

CHOICE TREND:

The Twins are 0-10 since August 29, 2011 as a 170+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 18-4 since June 09, 2011 as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1228.

When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 16-4 since July 21, 2012 as a road dog for a net profit of $1719.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

MLB

7* Los Angeles Dodgers -150

4* Detroit Tigers -135
4* Under 8 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees

3* New York Yankees -1.5 -125
3* Atlanta Braves -115

2* Milwaukee Brewers -150
2* Baltimore Orioles +115
2* Tampa Bay Rays -115
2* Oakland Athletics -125
2* Over 8.5 Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox
2* Under 7.5 Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins
2* Over 9.5 Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays
2* Under 7.5 San Francisco Giants/St. Louis Cardinals

1* Under 8.5 Colorado Rockies/Cleveland Indians

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Sports Cash System

Play of The Day

MLB Baseball

New York Mets +100 over the Philadelphia Phillies

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MTi Sports

Cincinnati Reds -106

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Insider Sports Report

5*Cincinnati (Cueto) -120 over Arizona (McCarthy)
Range: -105 to -145

3* Miami (Turner) +105 over Atlanta (Santana)
Range: +125 to -120

3* Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (NBA)
Range: -2 to -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra pick:

New York Yankees -1½ (runline bet) over the Minnesota Twins (Run Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 1:05 PM EST - EARLY PLAY ALERT

[golden contender]

On Saturday its the 100% NBA Playoff Total of the Year leading the way. In MLB We have 36-4 Afternoon Power system Play and a 5* MLB Totals System that is averaging nearly 13 runs per game. MLB Top play cashes on Friday. Free MLB Play below.

The Saturday free MLB Total system play is on the under in the Chicago at Milwaukee game. Rotation numbers 957/958 at 4:10 eastern. This game has a nice totals system that has played to the under 12 of 15 times for home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs, if they scored 10 or more runs and had no errors, if their opponent, Chicago in this case scored 5 or more runs in a road dog loss by 5 or more runs, with 1 or less errors. In the series 6 of the last here in Milwaukee have stayed under the posted total. The Cubs hit just .220 in day games. The Brewers have played under in 14 of 19 in Day games. The Cubs have J. Hammel going and he has a solid 2.25 era vs the Brewers and a 3.08 era this season. W. Peralta for the Brewers has a 2.27 home era and has pitched under in 4 of 5 vs the Cubs. All 6 of his home starts this year have stayed under. With the Aforementioned data suggesting a low scoring game. We will recommend the under. Big Saturday card is up with the NBA Playoff Total Of the Year with a 16-0 Totals system and several big totals angles. In MLB we have a 36-4 Afternoon Dominator system and a 5* 94% Totals system that average nearly 13 runs per game and has a 100% Totals angle. MLB Top play cashes again and NBA has been Solid the whole post season. Message to Jump on Now and Bury your book with the most Powerful data and systems available. For the free MLB Play take Chicago and Milwaukee to play under the total today. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Time: Saturday 05/31 7:15 PM Eastern
Pick: Boston -105 (moneyline) at Bookmaker

These teams have become arch enemies as there was a carryover from their previous series just a short time ago. David Price put one in David Ortiz' back, then Longoria had a pitch sail behind him head high. The lesson here might be to not awaken a sleeping giant as the Sox are World Champions that have been somewhat dormant. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is a frustrated team that has sunk to the lowest of lows and have overtaken Houston as the team with the worst record in the AL. Tampa bay is 0-6 in their last six games on the road, and behind Odorizzi they are 1-6 on the road in his last seven. The Sox have won five straight, and despite not playing well at home, they own a 15-6 mark here in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record, which expands to 36-15 at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Make the play on Boston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LineCatchers

Playersbet

New York Yankees -1
Detroit Tigers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers ML

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King Creole

Pitt/LA Over 7

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Scott Spreitzer

SA/OKC Under 206.5

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA

#523 Spurs +3.5 +100 3*

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Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides 55-44-0 +1,587


#969: Rays: +105 2*
Listed Pitchers: Odorizzi / De La Rosa

#974: Mariners: +120 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Smyly / Young


Totals 41-54-5 -2,995

#955/956: Over Marlins: 7.5 (-110) 2.5*
Listed Pitchers: Santana / Turner

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JOE WILLIAMS

Under 207 San Antonio Spurs/Oklahoma City Thunder

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VIP LV
Commission plays

OKC -3.5 (5000)
OKC Un 207 (5000)
mets +120 (2500)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eric Henderson


Today's Selections


MLB: none


NHL: none


NBA: none


WNBA: Indiana -3.5

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WORLD CLASS CAPPER

MLB- 3* Mets vs Phillies – Under 7.5 @ -110
Starts at 3:00 PM est

MLB- 3* Braves vs Marlins – Over 7.5 @ -110
Starts at 4:00 PM est

NBA- 3* Spurs +3.5 point spread @ -110
Starts at 8:30 PM est

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

MLB SELECTION:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -140

(Ryu/Cumpton)
Pittsburgh has not really faced left handed starting pitching at all this year. Throw in the fact that they are not hitting the ball very well and I really like the Dodgers. This price seems a bit high, but I will take my chances with Ryu on the mound tonight. Take Los Angeles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RTG SPORTS

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 ** (1st Half)

Over 102.5 ** (1st Half)

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GOODFELLA

2* on SAN DIEGO PADRES (Listed Pitchers)

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Gambling God

Over Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins

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Primetime Insiders

3* Under Reds
Brewers
Tigers

2* Diamondbacks
Astros
Dodgers
Under Cubs
RL Parlay Brewers/Dodgers/Tigers

1* Under Astros
Under Cubs
Marlins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PSYCHIC
5* Spurs +4 (WISEGUY)

WIIZARD
8* Spurs over 206.5

JT WALKER
1* Phillies -122

Iceman
Pass

Genius
5* Red Sox -117
5* Tigers over 7.5
10* Mariners +124 (MLB Dog of the Year)

Michael Cash Money
10* Braves -115 (MLB GOY)

The Sports Report
Pass

Totals 4 U
Pass

Sports Chick
Pass until football

Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
Pass until football

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

San Diego ML Early Best Bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Rivers

One-and-Only 500,000♦ MLB Game of the Month

Cleveland Indians

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Brad Wilton

2nd Biggest Hoops Play Ever

100 Dime Winner # 14 of 20

Western Finals Total of the Year

Over 206.5 San Antonio-Oklahoma City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* GOM

Cleveland Indians

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Maddux

MLB

Detroit Tigers
Atlanta Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Free Play: Baltimore +115 vs Houston


Saturday 5/31 Service Plays

We told you that we felt a big Friday coming!!! We loved our plays and they delivered!! We are now 6-1 in our last 7 NBA Playoff plays!! We also hit our 5* play with style as Milwaukee never looked back!! Today we come right back with another 5* play and look to make it 3 straight winners on our 5* plays!! Let's get 2 consecutive big days going!! Let's end this May with an easy Pay day!!

NBA

Oklahoma City -3.5


MLB

5***** Toronto RL -1.5 +120


Yankees RL -1.5 -120


Boston -110


Dodgers RL -1.5 +135


Milwaukee -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports play #2


atlanta/miami-over total -reg play

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA 5/31


3-Unit Play. #601. Take Under 142.5 New York vs. Indiana (Saturday @ 7pm est)

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Las Vegas Pipeline


15* OKC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso 25 SPURS

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King Creole
5***** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL 207

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OddSportsWizard

WNBA 11-9 - Over Indians

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VEGAS SHARP

5 Units

524 Oklahoma City Thunder -3 over San Antonio Spurs

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Indian Cowboy


3* MLB Arizona 10:10 pm

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ATS Bet Code

New York Mets +110

Chicago Cubs +138

Carl Froch -160

New York Liberty +3

Tampa Bay Rays -103

SA/OKC – Under 207

Cincinnati Reds RL+1.5

Detroit Tigers -135

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HIGHROLLER SPORTS PICKS

Biggest Game of the Day!!
DODGERS-144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

5 Units 524 Oklahoma City Thunder -3 over San Antonio Spurs

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DHayes2

1* Over 7.5 – Oak/LAA -125

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INDIAN COWBOY (WNBA)

3-Unit play. #601. Take Under 142.5 – New York vs. Indiana (Saturday @ 7pm est)

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Dave Cokin

Angels

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Betting As A Business

MLB

Over 7.5 (-110) – Detroit (Smyly) / Seattle (Young) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Over)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports night plays 5/31

arizona-m.line-best bet

pittsburgh-m.line
seattle-r.line

spurs/okla city-under total -best bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY MLB
3* D backs -105

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2Halves2Win NBA (on a 7-1-1 playoff run):

1* GAME: Spurs-Thunder u206 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

STRAIGHT BET [1970] TOTAL u4½+105 (1H TAM vrs 1H BOS) ( J ODORIZZI -R / R DELAROSA -R )

STRAIGHT BET [970] TOTAL u9-125 (TAM vrs BOS) ( J ODORIZZI -R / R DELAROSA -R )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS


Added

3* Dodgers -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Saturday's Selection ...

For Saturday, Raise the Bar 1500♦ is the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over the the Oklahom City Thunder. At 7:30 am eastern time, the Spurs are +3 1/2 point underdogs both in Vegas and offshore.


You know me, you know I am a big "Due Theory" believer, and after watching the home team in the Western Conference Finals steamroll to 5 wins and 5 covers in as many games, I think it is "Due Theory" time, and that the Spurs are going to be there at the Chesapeake Energy Arena this Saturday night.


You may also know that I am not a big believer in Scott Brooks as a head coach, and to me it is only a matter of time before Gregg Popovich makes the right road adjustments and gets the Spurs back to the NBA Finals starting on Thursday night.


Hard to argue the home team success in this series, and also hard to argue the 10-1 straight up and against the spread mark the Thunder sport their last 11 home games against San Antonio, but I am going to do just that. My feeling is the Spurs are the better, deeper team, and they have the better coach on their side as well. Throw in the +3 points or so that we are catching, and I think Game Six goes against the grain tonight as the visitor finally comes through.


Take the Spurs plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM-MLB (80% in MLB 2014)
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 10:10 ET.


The Reds won 6-4 last night in Arizona and Johnny Cueto is hoping he'll get some of that same kind of support, tonight. Cueto ranks among the major league ERA leaders (1.83) but is near the bottom of baseball with an average run support of 2.80. That's why he's just 4-4 in 11 starts in 2014, with the Reds actually being a losing proposition in his starts (5-6)!


That hardly seems right, as along with his 1.83 ERA, Cueto has allowed just 43 hits in 83.2 innings while posting a 85-20 KW ratio. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.75 and opponents have batted a measly .148 against him. Now lets' compare that to his mound counterpart tonight, Arizona's Brandon McCarthy.


McCarthy began his career back in 2005 with the White Sox. He had 53 appearances in 2006 but only TWO were starts. However, since that time all but ONE of his 110 appearances from 2007 through 2013 (pitching for Texas, Oakland and Arizona) have been starts. Note that his record heading into 2014 was a very journeyman-like 42-50 (4.10 ERA).


He's made 11 starts for Arizona here in 2014, entering this contest 1-6 (team is 2-9). His ERA is 4.87 on the season but it's his night starts which really throw up a red flag. While he owns a 2.88 ERA in five day starts, he's been just AWFUL "under the lights!" He's allowed 46 hits over 34 innings in six night starts, posting a 1.56 WHIP and 6.88 ERA. Any surprise he's 0-4 and the team 0-6 in those contests?


Considering Arizona is MLB's worst home team at 9-20 (minus-$1,297) on the season and as a team allows on average, 5.34 RPG at Chase Field, isn't this a perfect spot for the Reds to give Cueto the kind of support he deserves? One last thing. Cueto allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 4.1 innings of an 11-5 loss at Arizona last June 21 but had allowed a total of just seven runs on 18 hits over 38 innings while going 5-0 in his first six starts against the D'backs (Reds were 6-0!).


I'll bet on that version of Cueto to show up here, considering the numbers he's posted so far in 2014 (see above for a reminder).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton

Your Saturday Winner...

Saturday winner is a 100 Dime release on the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder to go Over the posted total. At 4:00 am Vegas time, the total is 206 1/2 points.

Saturday's Analysis


Call me stubborn, but I am not ready to give up on the Over just yet in this Spurs-Thunder series.


After Game 1 went sailing Over the total, the past 4 games have all held Under the total. In 2 of the last 3 games the teams were well over pace to land Over the total by the half, but the points trickled in just slow enough in the second half to keep things just Under the total.


In fact Thursday night the teams were sitting at 120 points at the break and fell a basket away from going over the total. Crazy!


Can't see that trend continuing tonight with elimination on the line, as I am sure Oklahoma City will bomb away if they get behind. They will also foul heavily if they find themselves playing from behind, and there is nothing better when you have a play on the Over then getting free points from the charity stripe when the clock is stopped.


After 4 straight series Unders, let's take Game 6 to finally land Over the posted price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

pred. machine

again no normal play

half bet OKC -3.5 56.1%