6-3-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll 911: How to revive your dying MLB bets
By JASON LOGAN

April showers were supposed to bring May flowers, but for many MLB bettors those rainy days didn’t end.

Surviving the first two months of the baseball season with your bankroll intact can be about as tough a task as getting Red Sox fans to forgive Jacoby Ellsbury for jumping ship to the Yankees. If you’re among the many with their baseball bets on life support, we’re dialing 911 before it’s too late.

We asked Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to give some insight, tips and practices on how to revive your baseball bankroll.

Money management

We may be taking you back to sports betting kindergarten here, but plenty of bettors don’t understand proper money management. This practice is extremely important when it comes to baseball. Without it, your wallet with thin up quicker than Keira Knightley on a hunger strike.

The majority of MLB wagers are made on the moneyline, which can be very deceptive when it comes to wins and losses. A 30-12 record may look good at first glance but – depending on the price of those moneylines – could actually be a losing mark. Covers Expert Steve Merrill says ranking your plays and knowing how much to wager is an important part of climbing out of the red.

“Money management is critical and especially in a daily sport like MLB where you have multiple plays every day for six months straight,” Merill says. “The best method is to use a fixed percentage of bankroll for each play.”

Some cappers suggest divvying out 1 percent of your bankroll on MLB plays you like ($100 wager for a $10,000 bankroll) while others look to bet 3 percent and jump to 4 and 5 percent on games they really feel strongly about. If you’re coming out of a terrible April and May, you may want to start smaller and go from there.

“This will enable you to withstand the inevitable statistical swings - both good and bad - that occur during a long and high volume MLB season,” says Merril.

If you’ve been properly managing your bankroll this whole time but still burning through units, drop your bet size down to relieve some of the pressure of the losing skid. Some cappers suggest a decrease of 25 to 30 percent from your regular wager size.

Beware big moneyline favorites

Teams like Detroit, Los Angeles and St. Louis regularly find themselves at the top of the divisional standings but rarely sit among the top money earners for baseball bettors. That’s because you pay a premium to take these teams on the moneyline.

While these elite clubs win more often than not, those victories return cents on the dollar taking a long time to add up. And when those top teams do lose, it does Godzilla-like damage to your bankroll since it costs so much just to bet them.

Avoiding hefty favorites and finding other ways to cash in on these power teams is a good way to breathe life back into your bankroll. Covers Expert Nick Parsons says costly favorites should not be toyed with, instead look to alternative odds – like runlines – to find better value.

“I'd suggest playing favorites on the runline if the (moneyline) price is above -160,” says Parsons. “If you don't think that team is going to win by more than a run, then it's probably best to avoid that play all together.”

Doggy Dog world

Underdogs are underdogs for a reason – they’re not expected to win. That doesn’t always instill the greatest confidence in sports bettors. However, finding live underdogs is a perfect way to shoot Red Bull directly into the veins of your bankroll.

Some handicappers strictly wager on underdog teams, as to not get burned by high-priced favorites. Covers Expert Sean Murphy tends to lean toward plus-money teams, hunting down home pups and short road dogs showing their teeth.

“It's no surprise that I suggest looking for value in dogs priced north of +130 on a daily basis,” says Murphy. “Consider a couple of underdogs each day, expecting to split at worst, and your bankroll will not only survive but grow over time.”

Tracking totals

If you’ve been betting totals all along or just sick of getting pantsed on the moneyline, the MLB Over/Under is a great way to get out of a funk. And, perhaps more than any other sport, baseball total trends can be any easy way to spot profit.

“When the betting markets are off on a team's baseline total number, the value can last for weeks, even months,” says Teddy Covers. “Just ask anyone who has been betting Miami and Baltimore Overs or San Diego and Atlanta Unders in recent weeks.”

And when it comes to the cost of the Over or Under, MLB bettors aren’t paying a premium to play one side of the other, usually dealing with lines no higher than -130 associated with the total.

Pump the breaks and stay patient

Baseball is an everyday sport, however, there’s no rule that says you have to be it every day.

If you’re feeling the sting of a bad beat or extended losing skid – like an Aroldis Chapman beanball – you can always take a day or two off. Like any task or project, sometimes fresh eyes can be the best solution to a problem.

"While no one wants to hear it, laying off can be a fail-safe strategy to not further dwindle one's bankroll," says Covers Expert Bryan Power. "I know that if I feel I am struggling to pick winners, taking a day or two off can help. Take some time, look at what's going on with out making any actual wagers and see if you can come to any new conclusions."

Keep calm and give it time to turnaround. Don’t expect to follow a 0-fer day with a perfect 4-0 record just because you’ve taken all the steps above. Baseball is a 162-game schedule and as the classic sport betting cliché says, “It’s a marathon, not a race.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Interleague play has lost special place with MLB bettors
By JASON LOGAN

Interleague action used to be one of the most exciting chunks of schedule during the long and grueling MLB season. After months of the same ole divisional rivalries and league showdowns, baseball bettors got a brief breath of fresh air when the American and National Leagues would collide.

But, much like the way the Star Wars franchise was watered down, interleague play was ruined by Major League Baseball wanting to capitalize on the popularity of these AL vs. NL battles.

Now, interleague play isn’t just reserved for a few weeks on the calendar – it’s happening almost every day. In fact, interleague became so diluted that MLB.com stopped updating their historical records and stats section for these senior-versus-junior circuit clashes back in 2012.

As of Monday, which features four interleague games, there have already been 109 interleague contests played this season, with the AL holding a slight 59-50 edge over its NL opponents. However, if it wasn’t for the AL East - 27-16 versus the NL – the American League would be losing 34-32 to the National League.

“I think it's a completely different animal now that we see interleague play on a daily basis,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “Teams don't seem to be changing their approach as much when hopping leagues.”

Interleague games offered something different for the industry. It threw a bit of a curveball at books and bettors, who had to factor in how a starting pitcher would hit in limited plate appearance or what the impact would be if an NL squad suddenly had a designated hitter. There was an aura of the unknown, which leveled the playing field when it came to finding added value in those interleague moneyline and totals.

There are factors some handicappers still size up when breaking down the odds for American-National affairs, especially when it comes to sending an AL pitcher to the plate for one of their few career at-bats.

“This does make a huge difference and I try to typically avoid AL teams playing in NL parks unless they have a decided edge in starting pitching or if the NL team is just a bad one,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “Weak-hitting American League teams can be a good Under bet in NL parks while strong-hitting NL teams can be a good Over bet in AL parks.”

However, due to the oversaturation of interleague action in the modern MLB era, some bettors are treating these games the same as any other divisional or league matchup.

“It has been occurring long enough now where the teams are getting comfortable with the different venues and format,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “I handicap the games the same as regular in-league play using matchups, momentum, and current form.”

Heading into this week, the most successful interleague squads this season have been the San Francisco Giants (6-0), Milwaukee Brewers (7-2), and Los Angeles Angels (6-2), while the bottom of the interleague barrel features the Minnesota Twins (2-6), Philadelphia Phillies (1-8), and Chicago Cubs (2-6).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 3RD 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#911 OAKLAND @ #912 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Athletics LH Scott Kazmir (6-2, 2.36 ERA, WHIP: 0.961) - Kazmir has given up 16 hits in 24 1/3 innings over his four-start surge and is limiting opponents to a .212 average overall, the third-lowest mark among qualified American League starters entering Monday's action. The veteran, who has a 3.16 ERA in six road outings, has surrendered 10 runs on 15 hits (four home runs) in just 10 frames at Yankee Stadium. Kazmir is 7-7 with a 3.50 mark overall against New York.

--KEY STAT: KAZMIR is 20-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 2.3.

--KAZMIR is 13-4 against the run line (+9.9 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.1, OPPONENT 3.5.

--KAZMIR is 17-5 against the run line (+13.9 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.0, OPPONENT 3.0.

--KAZMIR is 19-8 against the run line (+13.1 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.8, OPPONENT 3.1.

--KAZMIR is 19-6 against the run line (+17.9 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 2.3.

--KAZMIR is 18-6 against the run line (+14.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

--KAZMIR is 12-2 against the run line (+11.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.9, OPPONENT 3.4.

•Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (4-3, 4.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.323) - Kuroda owns a 4.84 ERA over his last four starts and has surrendered 17 hits in just 10 1/3 innings in his last two outings, including nine in a shaky win at St. Louis on Wednesday. He is 0-2 with a 6.94 mark in two home starts versus the Athletics and has given up 25 runs in 35 1/3 frames at Yankee Stadium in 2014. Kuroda kept the ball in the park against the Cardinals after serving up five homers over his previous three appearances.

--KEY STAT: KURODA is 19-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.8, OPPONENT 3.1.

--KURODA is 15-3 UNDER (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.7, OPPONENT 3.4.

--KURODA is 14-3 UNDER (+10.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

--KURODA is 24-7 UNDER (+16.0 Units) in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.1, OPPONENT 3.1.

#913 TORONTO @ #914 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (4-3, 3.88 ERA, WHIP: 1.262) - Hutchison was scheduled to start Sunday against Kansas City, but the Blue Jays decided to push him back after he yielded five runs and three homers among seven hits in five innings of a 10-5 victory over Tampa Bay on May 26. "I just had a poor outing, I wasn't sharp," the 23-year-old Florida native told reporters after his worst start of 2014. "It was just one of those games you have to grind through. But I've been keeping my normal routine, with a few tweaks, and I'll be ready to take the ball on Tuesday." Hutchison, who missed all of 2013 because of Tommy John surgery, never pitched against Detroit, but faced Ian Kinsler (1-for-4, double, three RBIs).

•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.49 ERA, WHIP: 0.992) - Sanchez was two outs away from his third straight victory before Josh Donaldson's three-run homer against Joe Nathan gave Oakland a 3-1 walk-off victory on Wednesday. The 30-year-old Venezuelan yielded four runs in 20 1/3 innings over three starts - with victories over Texas and at Boston - since recovering from a blister on his right middle finger. Sanchez is 2-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts against Toronto, while Melky Cabrera is an eye-popping 10-for-18 against him.

--KEY STAT: SANCHEZ is 9-19 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0.

--SANCHEZ is 9-19 (-18.2 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9.

--SANCHEZ is 11-2 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

--SANCHEZ is 19-6 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 3.0.

#915 BOSTON @ #916 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (1-2, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.456) - Peavy, who went 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in May, turned in his best performance of the month but settled for a no-decision in Thursday’s 4-3 victory over the Atlanta Braves. The 2007 National League Cy Young Award winner allowed three runs on eight hits over a season-high eight frames, surrendering a homer for the 10th time in 11 starts. Peavy struck out a season-high 11 en route to a victory in his last turn versus the Indians in 2013 to improve to 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 all-time starts against them.

--KEY STAT: PEAVY is 9-21 (-14.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.9, OPPONENT 4.3.

--PEAVY is 2-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.7, OPPONENT 4.8.

--PEAVY is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.5, OPPONENT 3.5.

•Indians LH T.J. House (0-1, 4.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.429) - Bouncing back from his rough outing in his first major-league start on May 23, House did not factor in the decision despite permitting one run and striking out eight over 6 1/3 innings in Wednesday’s 3-2 setback versus the White Sox. The 24-year-old Louisiana native, who continues to fill the rotation spot of the injured Zach McAllister, is allowing left-handed batters to hit .368 thus far after holding them to a.188 average at Triple-A Columbus prior to his promotion. House will make just his fourth career major-league appearance and face Boston for the first time.

#917 BALTIMORE @ #918 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 4.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.484) - Jimenez bounced back from consecutive rocky outings by limiting Houston to one run and three hits over six innings on Thursday. Jimenez will pitch on his regular rest after scheduled starter Bud Norris was pushed back to pitch in Wednesday's middle game of the series. Jimenez owns a 3-2 mark and 3.03 ERA in six career outings versus Texas, including eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball last July as a member of the Cleveland Indians.

--KEY STAT: JIMENEZ is 19-5 UNDER (+13.7 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8.

--JIMENEZ is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4.

--JIMENEZ is 13-27 against the run line (-22.4 Units) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.1, OPPONENT 4.5.

•Rangers LH Joe Saunders (0-1, 4.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.845) - Saunders will make his third start of the season and second since missing returning from the 15-day disabled list with a fractured ankle that sidelined him for nearly eight weeks. The well-traveled veteran, who spent part of the 2012 season with Baltimore, blanked Minnesota on five hits over five innings last time out. Saunders has never lost to the Orioles in nine career starts, posting a 7-0 mark and 4.09 ERA.

#919 LA ANGELS @ #920 HOUSTON - 8:10 PM
•Angels LH C.J. Wilson (6-4, 3.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.109) - Wilson lost to Seattle in his last outing when he gave up three runs and five hits in 7 2/3 innings. He defeated the Astros on April 7 when he allowed one run and four hits in eight innings. Overall, he is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against Houston.

--KEY STAT: WILSON is 30-11 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.

--WILSON is 21-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.2, OPPONENT 3.1.

--WILSON is 13-3 OVER (+10.1 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.3, OPPONENT 3.4.

--WILSON is 18-7 UNDER (+10.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.0.

--WILSON is 18-4 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.4, OPPONENT 4.4.

--WILSON is 15-2 OVER (+13.2 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.6, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--WILSON is 15-2 OVER (+13.2 Units) in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.7, OPPONENT 4.9.

•Astros RH Collin McHugh (3-3, 2.80 ERA, WHIP: 0.978) - McHugh lost to the Angels on May 21 despite giving up just two runs and four hits in seven innings. He allowed a homer in the sixth to Albert Pujols to lose a 2-1 decision against Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver. McHugh tossed seven shutout innings of five-hit ball to beat Kansas City in his last turn after losing his three previous decisions.

--KEY STAT: MCHUGH is 1-11 (-10.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCHUGH 3.1, OPPONENT 5.8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Tuesday, 6/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ _

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
Interleague action used to be one of the most exciting chunks of schedule during the long and grueling Major League Baseball season. After months of the same ole divisional rivalries and league showdowns, baseball bettors got a brief breath of fresh air when the American and National Leagues would collide. But, much like the way the Star Wars franchise was watered down, interleague play was ruined by Major League Baseball wanting to capitalize on the popularity of these American League versus National League battles.

Now, interleague play isn’t just reserved for a few weeks on the calendar – it’s happening almost every day. In fact, interleague became so diluted that MLB.com stopped updating their historical records and stats section for these senior-versus-junior circuit clashes back in 2012. As of Monday evening, which features four interleague matchups, there have already been 109 interleague confrontations played this season, with the AL holding a slight 59-50 edge (54.1%) over its NL opponents. However, if it wasn’t for the AL East - 27-16 versus the NL – the American League would be losing 34-32 to the National League.

“I think it's a completely different animal now that we see interleague play on a daily basis,” says StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo. “Teams don't seem to be changing their approach as much when hopping leagues.”

Interleague games offered something different for the industry. It threw a bit of a curveball at books and bettors, who had to factor in how a starting pitcher would hit in limited plate appearance or what the impact would be if an NL squad suddenly had a designated hitter. There was an aura of the unknown, which leveled the playing field when it came to finding added value in those interleague moneyline and totals. There are factors some handicappers still size up when breaking down the odds for American-National affairs, especially when it comes to sending an AL pitcher to the plate for one of their few career at-bats.

“This does make a huge difference and I try to typically avoid AL teams playing in NL parks unless they have a decided edge in starting pitching or if the NL team is just a bad one,” says StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst James Vogel. “Weak-hitting American League teams can be a good Under bet in NL parks while strong-hitting NL teams can be a good Over bet in AL parks.”

However, due to the oversaturation of interleague action in the modern MLB era, some bettors are treating these games the same as any other divisional or league matchup. “It has been occurring long enough now where the teams are getting comfortable with the different venues and format,” says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor. “I handicap the games the same as regular in-league play using matchups, momentum, and current form.”

Heading into Week #10, the most successful interleague squads this season have been the San Francisco Giants (6-0), Milwaukee Brewers (7-2), and Los Angeles Angels (6-2), while the bottom of the interleague barrel features the Minnesota Twins (2-6), Philadelphia Phillies (1-8), and Chicago Cubs (2-6).
____________________________________________

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
-- De La Rosa is 6-0, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Pirates won Cole's last three starts (2-0, 3.93).

-- Kazmir is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Sanchez is 2-0, 2.01 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts. McHugh is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Archer is 0-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Kansas City won Shields' last six road starts.
-- Noesi is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts. Buchanon is 1-1, 4.63 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson has a 6.08 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 3-0 when he starts, scoring 35 runs- he had one no-decision shortened by rain.
-- Haren is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hahn is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.20 in seven AA starts; that ERA in the Texas League is very good, but five innings was his longest start.

-- Peavy is 0-2, 5.89 in his last six starts. House is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts. Saunders is 0-1, 5.19 in his two starts this season.

-- Ramirez is 0-4, 7.04 in his last five starts. Floyd is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.82 in his last five.
-- Garcia has a 4.12 RA in three starts this season.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cole's last eight starts.

-- Eight of last ten Cleveland home games went over; last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Yankees home games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 10 of last 14 Baltimore games went over the total; last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Dodger home games went over total. Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under.

•Hot Teams
-- Giants won eight of their last 10 games. Cincinnati won four of its last five.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Pirates won four of its last five games.

-- Indians won its last seven home games. Boston won seven of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Athletics won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Astros won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.

-- Braves won their last three games. Seattle won three of last four.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.

•Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost seven of its last 10 games. Philadelphia lost four of their last five.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last six games. Arizona is 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Padres are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.

-- Yankees lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Tigers lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Rangers are 4-9 in its last thirteen home games. Baltimore lost eight of last eleven road games, but won last two.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.

-- Marlins lost four of their last five home games. Tampa Bay lost its last nine road games.
-- Twins lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games. Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. Los Angeles is 9-13 in their last 22 home games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Pitt-SD-- Last seven Porter games stayed under total.

-- Bos-Cle-- Home side won nine of 11 Davis games; favorite won his last six.

-- TB-Mia-- Favorites won six of last eight Carapazza games.
-- KC-StL-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdogs won last five Wegner games; seven of his ten games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs won last four Cederstrom games; last three went over.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•ARIZONA is 4-21 (-19.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.4.

•PITTSBURGH is 10-0 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.5, OPPONENT 3.4.

•WASHINGTON is 3-18 (-18.4 Units) against the run line after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5.

•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 22-9 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.

•SAM DEDUNO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.4, OPPONENT 4.2.

•JAMES SHIELDS is 12-2 (+12.5 Units) against the run line on the road when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SHIELDS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.7.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(42-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -118.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5, +9.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-20, +27.6 units).

•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(60-21 since 1997.) (74.1%, +41.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (54-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.8, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (63% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7, +12.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +20.2 units).

•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(50-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +34.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-109.3
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.9 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 40 (67.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-13, +13.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (103-83, +12.2 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at NY Yankees

The A's head to New York to open their series against the Yankees and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115). Here are all of today's picks.


TUESDAY, JUNE 3
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 16.153; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.974
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under


Game 903-904: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.928; Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.851
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over


Game 905-906: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 17.261; Cubs (Arrieta) 15.904
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); N/A


Game 907-908: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 13.330; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.761
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Over


Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.146; San Diego (Hahn) 15.099
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 911-912: Oakland at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 15.438; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 13.926
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Under


Game 913-914: Toronto at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.706; Detroit (Sanchez) 14.788
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under


Game 915-916: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 13.466; Cleveland (House) 16.588
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over


Game 917-918: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 18.416; Texas (Saunders) 14.420
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Over


Game 919-920: LA Angels at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.070; Houston (McHugh) 13.331
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Under


Game 921-922: Seattle at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 13.122; Atlanta (Floyd) 14.648
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Over


Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 18.143; Miami (Alvarez) 14.045
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under


Game 925-926: Kansas City at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.143; St. Louis (Garcia) 18.354
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over


Game 927-928: Minnesota at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 16.381; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 17.996
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Under


Game 929-930: Chicago White Sox at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 13.900; LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.139
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Phoenix

The Storm head to Phoenix where they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Mercury. Seattle is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


TUESDAY, JUNE 3
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 118.648; Atlanta 114.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 162
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-1); Over


Game 603-604: Seattle at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.554; Phoenix 116.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Mets -115
Brewers(RL) -1.5(+138)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Rockies -165

Royals/Cards over 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play TUES Nationals -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mets on Monday and likes the Giants on Tuesday.

The deficit is 300 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants +100 over Cincy Reds
(System Record: 36-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 36-27

Rest of the Plays
Miami Marlins -103 over Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers -150 over Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays +124 over Detroit Tigers


Soccer Crusher
Santa Cruz + Ponta Preta SP UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 584-21, won last game)
Overall Record: 584-487-84

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
-- de la Rosa is 6-0, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Pirates won Cole's last three starts (2-0, 3.93).

-- Kazmir is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Sanchez is 2-0, 2.01 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts. McHugh is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Archer is 0-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Kansas City won Shields' last six road starts.
-- Noesi is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts. Buchanon is 1-1, 4.63 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson has a 6.08 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 3-0 when he starts, scoring 35 runs- he had one no-decision shortened by rain.
-- Haren is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hahn is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.20 in seven AA starts; that ERA in the Texas League is very good, but five innings was his longest start.

-- Peavy is 0-2, 5.89 in his last six starts. House is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts. Saunders is 0-1, 5.19 in his two starts this season.

-- Ramirez is 0-4, 7.04 in his last five starts. Floyd is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.82 in his last five.
-- Garcia has a 4.12 RA in three starts this season.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Buchanan 0-2; Zimmerman 1-11
-- Lincecum 4-11; Bailey 3-11
-- Wheeler 4-11; Arrieta 1-5
-- Anderson 0-4; de la Rosa 3-11
-- Cole 4-11; Hahn 0-0

-- Kazmir 2-11; Kuroda 5-11 (3 of last 4)
-- Hutchison 2-11; Sanchez 3-8
-- Peavy 1-11; House 0-2
-- Jimenez 4-11; Saunders 1-2
-- Wilson 3-11; McHugh 1-7

-- Ramirez 3-6; Floyd 0-5
-- Archer 3-11; Alvarez 4-11
-- Shields 2-12; Garcia 1-3
-- Deduno 2-5; Gallardo 2-11
-- Noesi 3-6; Haren 4-11

Totals
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cole's last eight starts.

-- Eight of last ten Cleveland home games went over; last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Bronx home games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 10 of last 14 Baltimore games went over the total; last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Dodger home games went over total. Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under.


Hot teams
-- Giants won eight of their last 10 games. Cincinnati won four of its last five.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Pittsburgh won four of its last five games.

-- Cleveland won its last seven home games. Red Sox won seven of their last eight games.
-- Toronto won 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Oakland won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Astros won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.

-- Braves won their last three games. Mariners won three of last four.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.


Cold teams
-- Washington lost seven of its last 10 games. Phillies lost four of their last five.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last six games. Diamondbacks are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Padres are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.

-- Bronx lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Detroit lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Texas is 4-9 in its last thirteen home games. Orioles lost eight of last eleven road games, but won last two.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.

-- Marlins lost four of their last five home games. Tampa Bay lost its last nine games on foreign soil.
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games. Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. Dodgers are 9-13 in their last 22 home games.

Umpires
-- Pitt-SD-- Last seven Porter games stayed under total.

-- Bos-Cle-- Home side won nine of 11 Davis games; favorite won his last six.

-- TB-Mia-- Favorites won six of last eight Carapazza games.
-- KC-StL-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdogs won last five Wegner games; seven of his ten games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs won last four Cederstrom games; last three went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | LA ANGELS at HOUSTON
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL)
89-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.6% | 42.6 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -0.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at ST LOUIS
KANSAS CITY is 26-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.7) , OPPONENT (2.9)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three big betting trends for the NHL Stanley Cup final

Moneyline favorites are a perfect 7-0 SU in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final since 2007.

The Stanley Cup final not only marks the final journey for two teams looking to become NHL champions, it also represents the final game action for bettors before the start of the three-month offseason.

Bettors will note several interesting trends - not only those involving the Los Angeles Kings and the New York Rangers, but those relating to previous Stanley Cup championships. And if past history in either case continues in this year's title showdown, following the trends could pay handsomely.

Here are three trends going into this year's Stanley Cup final:

Favorites Dominate Game 1

The favored team has been automatic since 2007 when it comes to setting the tone, going a perfect 7-0 SU in Game 1. The favorites ranged from a narrow -107, the moneyline the Kings cashed in on with their 2-1 win over New Jersey in the 2012 Stanley Cup opener, to the -188 pricetag the Vancouver Canucks converted in their 1-0 triumph over Boston in the 2011 championship curtain raiser. The Under has also been a strong play in Game 1, with Chicago's 4-3 overtime win over Boston in last year's Stanley Cup opener representing just the second Over in the past seven Game 1s.

Unders Lead the Way

The trend of fewer goals being scored later in the postseason really takes hold in the final, where the Under has been the predominant play for the better part of the previous seven Stanley Cup series. Teams have amassed a 15-24-4 O/U mark in those contests, with the Boston Bruins-Vancouver Canucks seven-game thriller in 2010 (5-1-0 O/U) serving as the only outlier in that time. The Under has been a particularly strong play over the previous two Stanley Cup finals, coming through in eight of the 12 games.

Kings of the Overs

Los Angeles has had a wild ride to the final - rallying from a 3-0 first-round deficit against San Jose and needing Game 7 victories to win each of its first three series. But the most amazing development in the Kings' quest to win a second Stanley Cup may be the extent to which it has bucked its incredible regular-season O/U trend.

Los Angeles had the best Under mark in the league at 22-41 O/U - thanks in large part to the league's best goals-against total - but has turned that on its face in the postseason, going 13-5-3 O/U entering the final. That includes six straight Overs to end its conference final win over Chicago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River city sharps

3 units - kansas city royals (+110)

Runs have been awfully hard to come by for the St. Louis Cardinals, who have been shut out in consecutive games. Tonight they will try their luck against the Royals James Shields (6-3, 3.36 ERA) as the Cardinals will send lefty Jaime Garcia (1-0, 4.12 ERA) to the hill. The Royals have really responded when Shields gets the ball as they have won the last five starts he has made and eight of the last nine. Shields pitched really well early in the season but has been roughed up in his past two outings. Garcia hasn't faced the Cardinals since 2011, but does have an 0-1 record with a 7.30 ERA in those starts. The Cardinals have lost five of their last six games and hitting has been a big problem, batting just .200 in those games. The Royals have also really enjoyed some success against LHP, as they are 14-6 in their last 20 road games vs. a left-handed starter. They have also handled this interleague thing pretty well as they are 5-1 this season in IL games. Too much value here for us to ignore the road puppy!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Tigers -135
50* Cardinals -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Athletics vs Yankees
Pick: Under 8 runs
Risk:$105 to win $100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Rockies(-162)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

E&B and "Mr Chalk" hd Np for Monday.

For Tuesday in Soccer E&B like Bosnia/Mexico and a play on the draw.

For Tuesday in MLB "Mr Chalk" likes two.

(1) Tigers-$140/Blue Jays

(2) Rockies -$165Diamondbacks

Ben lee is 138-156-5 -$2630 through Thirty One weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 26-24 -$517 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Washington -170 over Philadelphia (MLB TOP PLAY)

Jordan Zimmermann has won 15 of the last 20 games when pitching in the month of June and he has won 15 of the last 19 games when pitching as a favorite of -175 to -250.Jordan Zimmermann has won 6 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Tuesday and he has won 17 of the last 25 games when pitching with five or six days of rest.

================================================== ===



50* Play Colorado -160 over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Milwaukee -150 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL



10* Play New York Yankees +110 over Oakland (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York is 80-57 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last three seasons
New York is 96-77 coming off an OVER the total the last three seasons
New York is 63-46 after scoring two runs or less in their last game


10* Play Miami +100 over Tampa Bay (MLB TOP PLAY)

Tampa Bay is 11-21 in road games this season
Tampa Bay is 19-30 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Tampa Bay is 14-21 when playing on a Tuesday the last two seasons

=============================================

5* Play San Francisco +110 over Cincinnati (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play NY Mets +100 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL




Play New York Yankees +105 over Oakland---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST


Scott Kazmir has lost 12 of the last 16 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and he has lost 21 of the last 36 games when pitching on a Tuesday. Scott Kazmir has lost 56 of the last 100 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has lost 62 of the last 119 road games.





Play Chicago White Sox +190 over Los Angeles Dodgers----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
10:00 PM EST


Dan Haren has lost 16 of the last 23 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has lost 26 of the last 42 games when pitching in the 1st half of the season. Dan Haren has lost 31 of the last 51 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 31 of the last 53 games coming off a team win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
The Red Sox lost 3-2 last night as Justin Masterson pitched his best game of the season.
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers - ORIOLES TO WIN (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Jimenez vs Saunders
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
The Baltimore Orioles head to Texas with a 28-27 record and 17-15 road record. The Rangers are 29-28 on the season and 13-13 at home. Baltimore has won two straight in Houston after dropping their previous 4 games. The Rangers are coming off a long road trip that was finished off with a series loss in Washington. Ubaldo Jimenez will pitch for Baltimore and he has been inconsistent so far this year with a 2-6 record, 4.65 ERA, .256 OBA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last start he went 6 innings giving up just 3 hits and 1 earned run with 8 strikeouts. 4 of his 6 May starts were solid and he put together a 2-2 record, 3.12 ERA and .219 OBA. Also take note that he is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, .199 OBA and 1.14 WHIP in his 7 night starts (9.00 ERA over 4 day starts). Joe Saunders will be on the rubber for Texas making his third start of the season. He is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA, .289 OBA and 1.85 WHIP over his first two starts. In 21.1 innings in the minors this season batters were hitting .317 against him. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series, and 38-15 in their last 53 games following an off day. The Rangers have won just 4 of their last 14 home games, and are 2-8 in their last 10 games following an off day. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 vs AL East opponents. Baltimore has won 5 straight vs Texas, including 4 straight in Arlington. I'll take the Orioles behind Jimenez tonight at a pick 'em price.


Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = L.A. Angels @ Houston Astros - ANGELS TO WIN (-130)
Listed Pitchers: Wilson vs. McHugh
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.54 units)
C.J. Wilson has had a couple spotty starts this season, but other than that has been lights out. In particular, Wilson has been strong in his last three outings, posting an ERA of only 1.57. Included with his stellar ERA is a 0.96 WHIP and .284 OBP. The last time Wilson had a rough outing was against the Blue Jays, giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. However, while the Astros are heading up, they don't possess quite the same offense as the Blue Jays do. Additionally, Wilson has looked good against the 'Stros in the past. His last five starts against them produced a 1.82 ERA. Another big thing to note here is that the Angels should be getting Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout back. Hamilton and Trout are listed as probable. Collin McHugh has been quite fine the Astros this season. He bounced around with the Mets and Rockies the past two seasons and looked like a disaster with both seasons higher than a 7.00 ERA. I don't know if he'll keep a 2.80 ERA up this season. He has also had trouble at home. His home numbers show a 5.00 ERA in 18 innings pitched. McHugh pitched against this same team two games ago and gave up only 2 hits. However, that was without Trout and Hamilton. I think getting Wilson at -130 against the Astros is pretty good value.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERPLAYWINS

Power Plays Of The Day

* MLB Oakland A's -125
* MLB St Louis Cardinals -125
* MLB Texas Rangers -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1 STAR SELECTION: (901) Philadelphia Phillies +$160
(Risking $100 to win $160)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (921) Seattle Mariners +$135
(Risking $100 to win $135)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (927) Minnesota Twins +$135
(Risking $100 to win $135)
(Action)

1 STAR SELECTION: (929) Chicago White Sox +$170
(Risking $100 to win $170)
(Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

TOP PICKS (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

(901) PHILADELPHIA +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACCUSCORE - MLB 70+% TRENDS

SV-Home Wins 65% or More 33-12, 73.3% +1065 -
ARI 907 vs COL 908 -- Value on Colorado Rockies -165

OU-Betting Line of 9 TO 9.5 STREAK 9-1, 90% +790 -
BAL 917 vs TEX 918 -- Under 9.5

ML-Home Wins 65% or More 33-12, 73.3% +696 -
ARI 907 vs COL 908 -- Over 50% on Colorado Rockies -165

AL WEST DIV GAME ML STREAK 6-0, 100% +467 -
LAA 919 vs HOU 920 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Angels -132

ML-Home Line is -150 to -169 STREAK 9-1, 90% +466 -
SEA 921 vs ATL 922 -- Over 50% on Atlanta Braves -153
MIN 927 vs MIL 928 -- Over 50% on Milwaukee Brewers -150
ARI 907 vs COL 908 -- Over 50% on Colorado Rockies -165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

1st 5 Inning Play on CHICAGO CUBS

(Listed Pitchers)

[golden contender]

Tuesday card has a big Triple perfect Blowout system and a Rare Never lost totals system that averages an amazing 13 runs per game. Monday MLB Sweeps led by Dog of the year winner on Cleveland. Free MLB System play below


On Tuesday the free MLB System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 904 at 7:10 eastern. The Reds and all home favorites are winning over 85% of the time since 2004 off a road dog win if they scored 4 or less runs and are taking on a teams, like the Giants that are off a road win by 5 or more runs. This is a solid game 1 series system and the hoe team wins by nearly 3 runs per game. In the series the Reds have won 6 of the last 7 and it looks like they have an advantage in the pitching department too. The Reds have Homer Bailey going and he has been solid in his last 2 home starts vs San Francisco allowing just 2 earned runs in 16+ innings of work. Tonight he will oppose Tim Lincecum who has been dreadful going 0-3 with a 8.65 era vs the Reds. T-Lin has lost 7 of his last 8 road starts made in the month of June and has struggled on the road again this season with an era approaching 5. Look for Cincinnati to take the opener here tonight. On Tuesday we have another Powerful card led by a 100% totals system that averages over 13 runs. There is also a triple perfect blowout system. Congrats to those who jumped on for Mondays MLB Sweep led by the MLB Dog of the year winner on Cleveland. Don't miss out as we smoke your book on Ruby Tuesday. For the free play take the Reds. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Time: Tuesday 06/03 10:10 PM Eastern
Pick: San Diego +109 (moneyline) at BetPhoenix

The San Diego Padres were the last team in MLB to score at least seven runs in a game. They went through their first 36 games without doing so as the offeense has been nowhere to be found. They have certainly gotten better in time as they have since scored seven or more runs in four of their last 18 games. Despite the lack of punch, they have stayed in touch at just six games below .500. The Pirates are searching for answers, as a season of great expectations is getting behind them. They are three games under .500, which includes an ugly 11-17 road mark. San Diego has been at their best when least expected as they are 5-1 in their last six as a home dog, and they have owned the Pirates at 37-14 in the last 51 meetings. Play on San Diego.

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Game of the Day: Giants at Reds

San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-113, 7.5)

A base hit would be a good start for the San Francisco Giants when they visit Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds for the opener of their three-game series on Tuesday. San Francisco had no luck in that department in its last encounter with Bailey, who tossed his second no-hitter of his career on July 2 at home. The Giants went down in order over the first six innings before Gregor Blanco drew a leadoff walk in the seventh, ending Bailey's bid for a perfect game.

No one could blame San Francisco if it feels as if it's experiencing a case of deja vu as Tuesday's starter - Tim Lincecum - opposed Bailey on that historic night. The Giants enter this series having won five of their last six contests - three via shutout, including an 8-0 drubbing of the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday. Cincinnati, which is beginning a 10-game homestand, has won three straight contests and four of its last five.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (San Francisco), FSN Ohio (Cincinnati)

LINE MOVES: The Reds opened as -108 home faves but have been bet to -113. The total opened 7.5.

INJURIES: Giants - LF Michael Morse (Probable, foot). Reds - CF Billy Hamilton (Probable, elbow)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Giants have played better than expected this season and this is reflected in the fact they are currently the most profitable team versus the moneyline this season (+17 nets units). San Francisco has surpassed the Dodgers as the current favorite to now win the NL West division. The Giant are 8-2 in their past three series and have this one road series remaining versus the Reds, before heading back to San Francisco for ten straight home games." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Good pitching matchup in this game as Lincecum takes the mound for the Giants and Bailey for the Reds. The last time Homer Bailey pitched against the Giants he threw a no-hitter. Runs could be at a premium here in my opinion, however the over on the 7.5 run total is seeing over 90 percent of the action." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Tim Lincecum (4-3, 4.18 ERA) vs. Reds RH Homer Bailey (5-3, 5.04)

Lincecum, who took the loss versus Bailey in the no-hitter, threw one of his own 11 days later and kept the Chicago Cubs out of the hit column for five innings on Wednesday before exiting with a blister on the middle finger of his right hand. The two-time National League Cy Young Award winner settled for a no-decision against Chicago but is 2-1 while striking out 22 in as many innings over four road starts this season. Lincecum has been a punching bag for the Reds in his career, going 0-3 with an 8.65 ERA in five outings.

Bailey limited the Dodgers to two runs over seven innings in Los Angeles on Wednesday to post his second straight victory and fourth in five decisions. The 28-year-old has lost only two of 10 starts since dropping his season debut and has yielded three runs or fewer in five of his last six outings. Bailey is unbeaten in six career turns versus the Giants, posting a 2-0 record and 4.26 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 1-6 in the last seven meetings.
* Reds are 4-0 in Baileys last four starts as a favorite.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Reds last 10 games following an off day.
* Under is 6-0 in Baileys last six starts vs. National League West.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers are on the Giants.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tuesday, June 3


Chance of thunderstorms several ball parks Tuesday

There are thunderstorms expected at several ball parks across the major leagues Tuesday.

In New York, the Yankees host the Oakland Athletics at Yankee Stadium, where there are thunderstorms expected with a 70 percent chance of rain. Wind will be blowing across the field from first to third at seven mph.

In Washington the Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies with thunderstorms and a 60 percent chance of rain in the forecast. There will also be a six mph wind blowing out towards right field.

There is a chance of thunderstorms in Atlanta where the Braves will host the Seattle Mariners. There is a 34 percent chance of rain.

While in St. Louis there will be a chance of thunderstorms and a 27 percent chance of rain for when the Cardinals host the Kansas City Royals. There will be a five mph wind blowing out to left field.


Angels' CF Mike Trout, probable Tuesday

Trout is dealing with a stiff back and did not play Sunday. He is expected to return for Tuesday's game against the Astros.


A's look to continue dominance of Yankees

The Oakland A's and New York Yankees begin a three-game series in the Bronx Tuesday, and the Athletics will certainly look to continue their stellar play versus the Bombers.

The A's went 5-1 versus the Yankees in 2013 and won the last four meetings of their head-to-head matchups.

Oakland, currently a -118 road fave, will send Scott Kazmir to the mound, while the Yanks (+109) are scheduled to counter with Hiroki Kuroda.


Padres' Cashner close to return from DL

Right-hander Andrew Cashner should be back in the San Diego Padres' rotation this weekend.

Cashner, on the disabled list since mid-May due to soreness in his elbow and forearm, declared he was ready to pitch Monday afternoon after throwing a four-inning, 65-pitch simulated game at Petco Park.

"There is no soreness," he said. "I'm ready to throw six to eight innings."

Padres manager Bud Black said of Cashner's simulated outing, "I liked what I saw, and (pitching coach) Darren (Balsley) is pleased. I'm excited about how Cash feels and how he looked today. He pitched four good innings with good velocity. We'll see how it feels tomorrow."

Black said if Cashner feels sound Tuesday and Wednesday, the right-hander likely would start in the spot manned Monday for a third time by long reliever Tim Stauffer, who allowed two runs on four hits and two walks in 2 2/3 innings in a 10-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cashner, 2-5 with a 2.35 ERA in nine starts this season, would be the second addition to the rotation this week.

Black also announced that right-hander Jesse Hahn would make his major league debut Tuesday with a starting assignment against the Pirates. Hahn, 24, was 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 32 2/3 innings over 10 games (seven starts) for Double-A San Antonio. Hahn, who had Tommy John surgery in 2010, has been on a limited pitch count with San Antonio.

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Bryan Leonard

St Louis -120

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Rochestertitans
Mlb
Giants over 7.5
Indians -104


Wnba
Sparks ml -135

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Tampasports

st louis m.line -10* best bet
san fran m.line
cleveland m.line

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Doc mlb

3* Tigers -140
3* Indians -110
3* Cardinals -130

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Umpire Streakers
[910] SD/PIT U7 (-110)

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA 6/3

2* #603. Take Seattle +10.5 over Phoenix (Tuesday @ 10:05pm est)

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Insider Sports Report

4* TBay/Mia UNDER 7.5 -125

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Larry Ness game of month: L A Angels

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Tuesday's Interleague Action
By Kevin Rogers

Since the start of last season with the Astros moving to the American League, interleague play takes place every day. At this point of the season, every team has taken part in at least one series against the opposite league, as five interleague series are currently ongoing. We’ll take a look at who’s been the best and worst when battling these unfamiliar opponents.

The Best

Pretty much every California team has dominated in interleague play so far, with four of the five Golden State clubs putting together terrific records.

Giants: 6-0
Brewers: 8-2
Angels: 6-2
Dodgers: 5-1
Athletics: 3-0

Of these four squads, the Dodgers are currently the only team playing an interleague series, coming off a 5-2 victory over the White Sox on Monday as a -200 home favorite. The Giants face the Athletics in a Bay Area showdown from July 7 through July 10, while the Freeway Series between the Dodgers and Angels will commence from August 4 through August 7.

The Worst

Phillies: 1-8
Twins: 2-7
Tigers: 2-4
Braves: 0-4

The Twins dropped their seventh interleague game in nine tries in Monday’s blowout loss at Milwaukee. Minnesota has faced the class of the National League in its seven losses, facing Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, while the only two victories came against the offensive-challenged Padres. The Phillies won their first interleague game in the season opener at Texas, but have lost eight straight to American League opponents, including four to Toronto. Philadelphia doesn’t face another AL team until early August when the Phillies host the Astros.

Tonight’s action

Mariners at Braves

Probable Pitchers:
SEA: Ramirez (1-4, 6.00 ERA)
ATL: Floyd (0-2, 2.37 ERA)

What to watch for: The Mariners are playing their third game in their third different city after beating the Tigers at home on Sunday and the Yankees in New York last night. The Braves return home following a three-game sweep of the Marlins in South Florida, but Atlanta has failed to win an interleague game in four tries.

Rays at Marlins

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Archer (3-2, 4.00 ERA)
MIA: Alvarez (2-3, 2.97 ERA)

What to watch for: The Rays have hit the skids with seven straight losses, while the ‘under’ has hit in five consecutive contests. The Marlins have been solid all season at home, as Miami owns a spectacular 8-2 record in Game 2’s at Marlins Park. Since May 1, the Marlins have won five of the last six starts made by Alvarez.

Royals at Cardinals

Probable Pitchers:
KC: Shields (6-3, 3.36 ERA)
STL: Garcia (1-0, 4.12 ERA)

What to watch for: The Royals picked up their fifth win in 14 tries as a road underdog in last night’s 6-0 shutout of the Cardinals. Since losing his first two starts on the road, Kansas City has won each of the past six away starts made by Shields, while the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of his previous eight outings. This has been a homestand to forget for the Cardinals, who are 2-6 through the first eight games of this nine-game stand at Busch Stadium.

Twins at Brewers

Probable Pitchers:
MIN: Deduno (1-3, 3.86 ERA)
MIL: Gallardo (3-3, 3.56 ERA)

What to watch for: Minnesota owns the second-worst interleague record in baseball, while losing five of its past seven road games overall. The Brewers have won nine of their last 12 games at Miller Park, while the ‘over’ has hit in six of the last seven home contests.

White Sox at Dodgers

Probable Pitchers:
CHW: Noesi (0-4, 5.83 ERA)
LAD: Haren (5-3, 3.28 ERA)

What to watch for: The Dodgers rallied past the White Sox last night for just their second win in the last six tries. After Los Angeles won five of Haren’s first six starts this season, the Dodgers have dropped four of his past five trips to the hill. Chicago has compiled a 3-6 record in Game 2’s on the road this season, while the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the last seven overall for the Sox.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
June 3, 2014
By Vince Akins

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rockies are 12-0 since September 01, 2012 as a favorite after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1200.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Gerrit Cole starts the Pirates are 10-0 since June 21, 2013 when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $1138.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Indians are 0-13 OU since April 09, 2006 as a home dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Nationals are 0-15-1 OU since August 24, 2011 when they were shutout last game with 3-6 hits while allowing less than nine runs.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Jordan Zimmermann starts the Nationals are 11-0 since July 18, 2012 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1100.

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Vegas Black Card Club

Cubs
A’s
Over – D’Backs vs Rockies

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Las Vegas Pipeline

20* Rockies

15* LAA

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Sean Michaels 100 Dime Brewers RL
Bryan Rosica 100 Dime LAA
Scott Delaney 100 Dime CLE

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Goodfella

3* MIL/MIN over 8
3* A's -122

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Maddux

Colorado Rockies

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Diamond Dog Sports

Sides 56-48-0
+1,247


#905: Mets: +100 2.5*
Listed Pitchers: Wheeler / Arrieta

#921: Mariners: +145 0.5*
Listed Pitchers: Ramirez / Floyd


Totals 42-56-6
-3,110


#913/914: Under Tigers: 8.5 (-110) 1.5*
Listed Pitchers: Hutchinson / Sanchez

#927/928: Under Brewers: 8.0 (+105) 1.5*

Listed Pitchers: Deduno / Gallardo

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Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
Tue, 06/03/14 - 7:10 PM *—


triple-dime bet
924 Mia (+100) 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229) vs 923 TAM Analysis: ”Tampa Bay at Miami



The in-state interleague series continues between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night. The Rays, who have lost 11 of their last 16, will look to Chris Archer to stop the bleeding and the Marlins will counter with Henderson Alvarez. In six May starts, Archer completed six innings only twice and opposing hitters posted a .363 OBP against him. One of the biggest problems for the Rays this season has been their bullpen and they've been forced to go to it early in the bulk of Archer's starts this season.




The Rays fell to 11-21 away from home with Monday night's loss and have scored just 95 runs in those 32 games. Their normally patient approach was lacking in May as they finished 15th in BB%. Their lineup is not filled with guys capable of hitting for a high average, so walking is imperative.




Which is part of why we like Henderson Alvarez in this matchup. He pitches to contact and doesn't walk many batters, which is sure to affect the Rays' chances of scoring runs. In 34 home innings this season, Alvarez has a 1.85 ERA and a 4.6 percent walk rate. With a team like that the Rays that has been awful offensively on the road, this should be a fine matchup for Alvarez.




Not only are the Rays struggling on the field, but things have to be shaky in the clubhouse as well. There aren't a lot of high-character players on the team and there will be a lot of uncertainty in the clubhouse because of the way the Rays operate by trading away their impending free agents to restock the farm system. Trades are a definite possibility and there are some uncomfortable players in that clubhouse that are letting the situation affect them.




PLAY: MIAMI

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DAVE AQUINO

Today's Selections



MLB: Colorado (ML -160), Colorado (RL +122)

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Indian CowBoy
3*#904 Cincinnati Reds -130 over San Francisco Giants (7:10pm EDT)

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Baseball33

USA: MLB
Colorado Rockies - Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies -1

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Chris James Sports

Over Red Sox/Indians 8.5
TB Rays -115
SF Giants +120
Cubs -109

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

New York Mets +105 over the Chicago Cubs (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:05 PM EST

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BookieMonsters

POD
Orioles -105

Money Generator Plays
Phillies under 8
BlueJays under 9
Indians +105

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Craig Davis
30 DIME
MLB Winner # 5 in a Row
Interleague Total of the Year
Over 7.5 White Sox / Dodgers

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Gabriel Dupont

60 Dime Winner #9 of 14
RUN LONE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Rockies

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Tuesday June 3, 2014
MLB Play #1

#911 Oakland -122 705PM Eastern

Line from Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com)
Line as of 415PM Eastern 6/3/14

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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take the YANKEES +120 to be more athletic tonight!

Take HOUSTON +115 to have the angels on their side tonight!

Take TORONTO +130 to tame the cats!

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SPORTS WAGERS

MLB

Baltimore -106 over TEXAS

Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire but he does have 28 K’s over his last 27 innings covering five starts. Over his last six starts, Jimenez has allowed one earned run or less four times. That includes a seven-inning, three-hit gem against the Tigers and 7.1-inning, three-hit shutout against the Twins in which he walked one and struck out 10. Jimenez’s 2-6 record is misleading and so is his 4.65 ERA, which has been hurt by an extremely unlucky 70% strand rate. Use his 3.27 xERA as a more accurate barometer of just how well he’s been pitching. Jimenez has allowed just one HR in his past seven starts and he and the Orioles offer up so much more value here than Joe Saunders does pitching for the Rangers.

Joe Saunders. That’s funny. Saunders has returned to the rotation after missing over a month with an ankle injury. His four minor league rehab starts were not promising, as he went 0-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while walking seven batters in 21.1 innings for Round Rock. Globe Life Park is not a good fit for this stiff either. He has been terrible in eight career starts at Rangers Ballpark, going 1-7 with a 8.58 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 43 innings. Saunders’ ludicrous streak of stats-exceeding-skills finally ended last season at six years. Overall, these are consistent skills, but also rather paltry ones in which Saunders excels at nothing. His full-season worst 5.26 ERA in 2013 was not indicative of his skills, but neither was the 3.69 of 2011. In reality, Saunders' xERA, consistently in the 4.40-4.60 range, correctly paints him for what he is: a modestly skilled innings-eater that is now pitching at one of the most unforgiving parks in the game. Fade.


Toronto +126 over DETROIT

The Tigers are just 4-10 over their last 14 games while the Blue Jays are 12-2 over that same span. Detroit has hit .256 during that stretch while the Blue Jays have hit a major-league high .301 and have also hit 26 jacks. Anibal Sanchez has the ability to dominate but at the age of 30 he’s beginning to have durability issues. Sanchez has only pitched passed the fifth inning in three of his eight starts. Sanchez does have a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and an oppBA of .183 but that’s not going to last because the skills don’t support it. Sanchez’s swing and miss rate is just 8%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is very average at 42%/22%/36% and in his last start his groundball/fly-ball split was 28%/56%. What’s so interesting is that Sanchez has not allowed a single jack this entire year but that can’t last because of the number of fly-balls he gives up. Yes, Sanchez has fine skills. However, regression analysis and that 2H xERA from last season both say not to expect another sub-3 ERA and now he’ll face a Jays’ team that is hitting everyone and everything.

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons pushed back Drew Hutchison's start two days. Gibbons said there is nothing physically wrong with Hutchison, but the team wanted to give him a couple of extra days rest because his velocity was down just a tad. It’s nothing to be concerned about at all. This was a smart move by Gibbons, who handles his pitching staff as well as any manager in baseball. Hutchison's strong minor league skills have materialized at this level. He's shown no ill effects from going under the knife, as he's punching out nearly a batter per inning while posting an impressive 11% swing and miss rate. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph in '12 to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. An unlucky strand % of 73% gives his 3.88 ERA even more room for improvement. This kid has the poise, the talent and the stuff to be a mainstay in the Blue Jays rotation for a long time. The Jays lead the league in fielding % and several offensive categories, making these red-hot Blue Jays too good to ignore as a pup. Invest.


Minnesota +138 over MILWAUKEE

The Brewers took the opener last night 6-2 but they were outhit 12-9 and it was a case of good luck versus bad luck, as Minnesota had numerous chances to score while Milwaukee’s contact with runners on found some holes. We mention this because the Twins have had 10 hits or more in four of their last five games and the only game that didn’t occur in over that stretch was against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yanks. Minnesota has another good chance here of doing some damage here against Yovani Gallardo. After being a model of SP consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 11 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.56 ERA, so it may appear like he’s finding his old groove. Don’t buy into that, as his skills say this is the same version of Gallardo we saw in 2013. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. A fading 6% swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound either. Gallardo’s xERA of 4.54 over his last five starts doesn't believe in an ERA rebound either. With an unsustainable 83% strand rate, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00 ++ ERA" written all over it, making him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game.

Samuel Deduno has filthy stuff and can absolutely dominate anyone when he’s on. The problem is inconsistency, as you never know which version will show up. However, what we do know is that Deduno has held right handed batters to a .219 BA and .580 OPS, both of which are elite levels. He also has an elite 55% groundball rate and elite 17% line-drive rate. Unlike Gallardo, Deduno has been EXTREMELY unlucky with his strand rate, which sits at 71% for the year and 65% over his last five starts. Deduno is so close to being an elite pitcher but be warned that’s always been the case with him. He can never seem to make that one small tweak to get him to that level but again, he’s capable of dominating at any time. As the chalk, Deduno doesn’t hold much value but as a pooch in this price range, he holds it all over Gallardo.


N.Y. Mets +108 over CHICAGO

Jake Arrieta has made just five starts this year and only one of them has been of the pure quality variety. Last season, Arrieta went 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 75 IP split between the Orioles and Cubs. Scouts have been waiting four years for this guy to break out and one has to wonder if the league swap will make it happen. Well, he has posted a better groundball% in the NL along with more K’s but he's still issuing too many walks and his dominant start/disaster start split shows he's still not a dominant starter. At this point, he's at risk of becoming long relief fodder or an AAAA player. Arietta still has a WHIP of 1.50, which is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.43 in 435 major-league innings. He’s walked 193 batters in his career, which is the real issue here because the early reports are strong winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight and should that come to pass, you don’t want to be spotting juice with a pitcher that is guaranteed to issue some free passes. Arrieta is too big a risk for our liking, especially when you consider that he pitches for a team that as the second lowest batting average (.231) in the majors.

The Mets just took four of five in Philadelphia and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the ninth inning in the second game. The Mets have now won six of seven. Zack Wheeler has not his stride yet but he’s getting closer. An up-and-down first month in the majors last year was followed by eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. We’re seeing more of that this year, as Wheeler is becoming dominant again. He’s coming off a 6.1 inning, four hit, one-run performance in Philly in which he walked none and struck out nine. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Wheeler has struck out 30 batters with an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. A slow start plus a high hit percentage of 36% has Wheeler’s ERA inflated at 4.31. His 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity in May was the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. This future #1 starter could make strides quickly now, as he’s showing all the signs of doing so and there is no way he deserves to be a pooch against Arrieta and the Cubbies. Wrong side favored.

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

TOP PICKS FOR TUESDAY (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)
(901) Philadelphia +180
(907) Arizona +150
(913) Toronto +130
(920) Houston +115
(927) Minnesota +140
(912) NY Yankees +120 (Play of the Day)
Certain pitchers are a PERFECT 0-19 if coming off a complete game and facing an opponent coming off a blowout loss.
*Listed Pitchers

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DHayes2

1* Braves -.5 (1st 5innings -115)

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Shaker’s Shorts

Full Game Total: #907 Diamondbacks vs Rockies – OVER 10.5 -110

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Big Bet Tiger
Cincy reds -125 first 5
Under 7.5 rays vs marlins -120

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Philly Ross

1* Clevland
3* Yankees
2* over 8 phils/mets
2* under 7.5 mia/tampa
3* Cubs
1* Brewers
1* Padres

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Ben Burns

10* tigers ML -125
9* braves ML -151

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Andre Gomes | MLB RunLine
Free pick
902 WAS -1.5 (+105) Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437).com vs 901 PHIAnalysis: MLB - 901 Philadelphia Phillies @ 902 Washington Nationals



(Starting Pitchers: D. Buchanan vs. J. Zimmermann)

Play #1




In my opinion, the Nationals have a great spot to win easily vs. PHI tonight. They enjoyed a nice day-off yesterday, and we are dealing w/ the #3 ranked offense in the league in L7 days according to my numbers w/ 0.370 wOBA. Also, note that Ryan Zimmerman has returned to the lineup, so we expect WAS to be decent offensively. They will face David Buchanan in here, and I simply don't trust him. Buchanan had just "OK" numbers in AAA w/ 3.98 ERA & 4.17 FIP and he was solid in his first start vs. LAD in which he had game log numbers of 3.60 ERA & 2.27 FIP! However, he had only 2 K's and quite naturally, he was due for a letdown in the next start that indeed happened: 4 R's, 3 ER's and again, just 2 K's vs. 2BB's! I expect him to have some troubles tonight vs. WAS.

On the other end, Jordan Zimmermann is due for some quality outings. In his L4 outings, he has allowed 5, 3, 4 and 3 ER's but his advanced numbers showed that he has been a bit unlucky as of late:

Vs. MIA: ERA=5.40 vs. FIP=2.47
@ PIT: ERA=6.00 vs. FIP=5.40
Vs. NYM: ERA=4.50 vs. FIP=3.74
@ ARI: ERA=7.94 vs. FIP=3.95

As you can see, in all those L4 starts, Zimmerman had ERA > FIP numbers! PHI offense is struggling lately - I have them ranked #25, #21 and #22 in the last month / L14 days & L7 days and so, we have a clear mismatch on the mound & offensively as well favoring the Nationals tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)

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Raymond Dunavant

Boston Red Sox -108

Phi Phillies +185
Min Twins +140
KC Royals +115

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Five Hole Freddy

2* Yankees ML
2* Padres ML
1* Rays ML

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charlie sports

500
cinn under 7.5
tampa bay over 7,5
phila over 7.5

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Rooster

ATL -160
CLE first 5 -121
NYY +120

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Sheep



1916 Cleveland -120 (1st 5) $1000
1919 Over 4 (-130) Sea-Atl (1st 5) $1000
1902 Washington -200 (1st 5) $1000
1904 Cincinnati -130 (1st 5) $1000
919 Over 8 (-130) Laa-Hou $1000
917 Over 9 (-130) Bal-Tex $1000
912 Ny Yankees +115 $1000
916 Cleveland -115 $1000
922 Atlanta -155 $1000
601 LA ml -140 wnba $1000

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NessPitch Perfect - Rockies

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Scotty Shiller
2* Marlins/Rays under 7.5 -125
3*: Red Soxs ML +108
5* Rangers ML -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tapin Sports

San Fran + 115

Mets -102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Stevens
Mets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DENVER MONEY

MLB Totals
Pirates @ Padres – Under 7 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

SELECTION:
OAKLAND A’S -120

(Kazmir/Kuroda)
The A’s have a more powerful lineup than the Yankees, a much better bullpen and as of this point Kazmir has been a better pitcher than Kuroda. There is nothing that points to taking the Yankees in this game except the fact they are at home in which they are sub .500 this year anyway. This is a good Oakland ball club that we should see make a deep playoff run. Take the A’s