6-5-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Oklahoma City

The Spurs open up the championship series at the AT&T Center on Thursday and come into the contest with a 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 home games. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.



THURSDAY, JUNE 5
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (6/1)


Game 701-702: Miami at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.830; San Antonio 129.163
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 198
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 5

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MIAMI (66 - 31) at SAN ANTONIO (74 - 26) - 6/5/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 54-46 ATS (+3.4 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-39 ATS (+4.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 80-58 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 53-35 ATS (+14.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 90-69 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, June 5

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs, 9:00 ET
Miami: MIAMI 11-3 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
San Antonio: 15-7 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, June 5

Trend Report

9:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Antonio's last 16 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/5/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 6/5/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Finals Betting Statistics
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs put on one of the most memorable National Basketball Association Finals in year’s last season and now get to do it all again, meeting for the second straight year in the championship series. StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel looks back at the most recent NBA Finals rematch and breaks down both sides before these rivals kick off Round #2 Thursday night:

The last NBA Finals rematch was in 1998 when the Utah Jazz met the Chicago Bulls. Avenging Utah went 2-4 straight-up and versus the spread against Chicago (0-3 ATS home/series favorite 1-5 ATS). Jazz’s series loss snapped streak of four consecutive series wins by avenging teams in rematches dating back to 1969 when Celtics last beat the Lakers in back-to-back years, four games to three.

•Previous rematch was in 1989, when avenging Detroit swept the Lakers.
•Avenging teams in rematches are 5-6 in the history of NBA Finals.

Series Trends
• Spurs 21-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS at home vs. Heat.
• Heat 16-10 SU and 15-11 ATS at home vs. Spurs.

•Spurs 114-67 SU and 96-80-5 ATS in postseason with “Big Three”, including 71-22 SU and 56-34-3 ATS home. Note: Since 2002 when Manu Ginobili joined Tony Parker and Tim Duncan in San Antonio.

•Heat 58-24 SU and 48-32-2 ATS in postseason with their “Big Three”, including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS off a playoff loss (12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS last 12).
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StatSystems Sports
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National Basketball Association Finals

#701 MIAMI @ #702 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Spurs -4, Total: 198.5) - The San Antonio Spurs wish to atone for last season’s collapse against the Miami Heat when the highly anticipated rematch in the NBA Finals begins on Thursday evening in San Antonio. The Spurs led by five with 28.2 seconds to go in Game #6 of last year’s finals before the Heat rallied to win and then claimed the title with a Game #7 victory. Miami is vying to become the first team to win three straight titles since the Los Angeles Lakers (2000-02).

The finals rematch is the first since the Chicago Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz in back-to-back years in 1997-98. San Antonio defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in six games in the Western Conference finals while the Heat won the Eastern Conference crown by dispatching of the Indiana Pacers in six games. Spurs point guard Tony Parker is expected to play in the opener despite further injuring an ankle in the series finale against Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Heat are in the finals for the fourth straight season since LeBron James opted to take his talents to South Beach.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (66-31 SU, 47-48-2 ATS): The possibility looms that James will opt for free agency on July 1 and he continues to dodge the topic of whether or not he will stick with Miami. The standout forward is averaging 27.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and five assists in the postseason as the Heat went 12-3 over the first three rounds. What isn’t up for debate is that James badly wants to win another title as he certainly took notice of the comments from Tim Duncan, who insisted San Antonio will win this time around. “They’ve been preparing for this moment – we have as well,” James told reporters. “No one is entitled. This is no one’s championship. It isn’t ours, it isn’t theirs. It’s two teams fighting for it.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (74-26 SU, 54-46-0 ATS): Parker told a French radio station on Tuesday that he will play in the opener despite the injury that caused him to miss the second half of the finale against the Thunder. Parker suffered the injury in Game #4 of the first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks and tweaked it again in Game #4 of the series against the Thunder before the pain sidelined him. “I gritted my teeth,” Parker told RMC Sport in France. “I did not mean to abandon my teammates. But the pain was too strong in the sixth game. I could not really play anymore.” Parker is averaging 17.2 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs are in the NBA Finals in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history.... Miami is the first squad to reach the NBA Finals in four straight seasons since the Boston Celtics (1984-87) and is only the fourth team overall – the Los Angeles Lakers (1982-85) and Boston Celtics (1957-66) being the others.... The teams split two regular-season meetings, each winning by double digits at home.... The Heat are 53-37 against the spread (58.8%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... San Antonio is 37-22 versus the spread (62.7%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game, including 23-12 ATS (65.7%) 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections.(Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 524 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 452 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 618 times, while MIAMI won 357 times. In 1000 simulated games, 529 games went over the total, while 471 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 505 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 462 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 484 games went under first half total, while 482 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 21-18 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-17 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--28 of 39 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 20-15 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--23 of 38 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio.
--Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio.

--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 5-1 ATS L6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games following a S.U. win.

--Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Spurs are 7-0 ATS L7 home vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 5-0 in Spurs L5 after allowing 100 points or more LG..

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(105-24 since 1996.) (81.4%, +51.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -223.5
The average score in these games was: Team 100.2, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +8.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4, +9.9 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 198.5)

The San Antonio Spurs wish to atone for last season’s collapse against the Miami Heat when the highly anticipated rematch in the NBA Finals begins on Thursday in San Antonio. The Spurs led by five with 28.2 seconds to go in Game 6 of last year’s finals before the Heat rallied to win and then claimed the title with a Game 7 victory. Miami is vying to become the first team to win three straight titles since the Los Angeles Lakers (2000-02).

The finals rematch is the first since the Chicago Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz in back-to-back years in 1997-98. San Antonio defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in six games in the Western Conference finals while the Heat won the Eastern Conference crown by dispatching of the Indiana Pacers in six games. Spurs point guard Tony Parker is expected to play in the opener despite further injuring an ankle in the series finale against Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Heat are in the finals for the fourth straight season since LeBron James opted to take his talents to South Beach.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Spurs as 3.5-point home faves for Game 1. The total opened 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Probable, ankle).

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Despite all of the craziness that happened in the Playoffs, we are down to the same two teams in the Finals that squared off a year ago. The big question mark for the Spurs is the health of guard Tony Parker, who sprained his ankle in the series vs. the Thunder. Parker is crucial to the Spurs plans and if he's slowed down, that could spell trouble for San Antonio. Conversely, the Heat's Dwayne Wade has been used sparingly to this point, Miami could very well have an early advantage in this series." Covers Expert Nick Parsons

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The matchup the Spurs have wanted since they lost the 2013 Finals to the Heat last June. This time around, the Spurs have home-court advantage and are -127 favorites to win. We opened Game 1 with the Spurs -3.5 favorites and quickly moved them to -4, since that move we have seen good two-way action with 63 percent of the action on the Spurs to cover the spread." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE HEAT: The possibility looms that James will opt for free agency on July 1 and he continues to dodge the topic of whether or not he will stick with Miami. The standout forward is averaging 27.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and five assists in the postseason as the Heat went 12-3 over the first three rounds. What isn’t up for debate is that James badly wants to win another title as he certainly took notice of the comments from Tim Duncan, who insisted San Antonio will win this time around. “They’ve been preparing for this moment – we have as well,” James told reporters. “No one is entitled. This is no one’s championship. It isn’t ours, it isn’t theirs. It’s two teams fighting for it.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker told a French radio station on Tuesday that he will play in the opener despite the injury that caused him to miss the second half of the finale against the Thunder. Parker suffered the injury in Game 4 of the first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks and tweaked it again in Game 4 of the series against the Thunder before the pain sidelined him. “I gritted my teeth,” Parker told RMC Sport in France. “I did not mean to abandon my teammates. But the pain was too strong in the sixth game. I could not really play anymore.” Parker is averaging 17.2 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 4-1 in Spurs last five overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers Consensus wagers are on the Spurs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Home court is cashing tickets for Spurs backers
By ANDREW AVERY

San Antonio Spurs home games have been cashing in of late for bettors and they'll look for that trend to continue in Game 1 of the NBA Finals Thursday evening.

The Spurs enter the opening game of the series with a 7-0 record against the spread in their last seven playoff home games.

After going 0-3 ATS on their own floor versus the Dallas Mavericks in the opening round, the Spurs covered as 7-point home faves in Game 7 and haven't looked back since, going 3-0 ATS against the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder in the next two rounds.

With tipoff approaching, the Spurs are currently 4.5-point home faves in Game 1 after opening -3.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fact or Fiction
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider

For the second straight season, the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat are set to square off in the NBA Finals. We'll go through what is the truth about this series and what is complete bunk about these two teams with the series starting Thursday night in San Antonio.

FACT

Home court advantage will make all the difference: It's what made the difference last season when these two teams played, so why not now? The Spurs have a ridiculous points per 100 possessions of 122.4 over the course of their last eight games played here at the AT&T Center, and they have scored at least 104 points in all of those games. San Antonio is legitimately perhaps the most dangerous team in basketball when playing in its own arena, and short of the first couple games against the Dallas Mavericks, there isn't a team which has really shown the spunk to be able to go out and win in the Lone Star State against the men in black and silver.

Tony Parker's injury is going to be a difference maker: We're going to talk about the depth of the Spurs in just a second, but here's the one place where we are sure that the Heat can take a massive edge. Mario Chalmers, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade have averaged 4.2 steals per game in these playoffs, and they are three of the best in the league at stepping in front of passes and taking them the other way for easy transition buckets. If the Spurs are really going to be missing Parker, even if it's just for a few extra minutes on a nightly basis in this series, Miami should be able to take advantage, as Manu Ginobili, Cory Joseph, and Patty Mills just don't make up a great distributing point guard trio beyond Parker.

FICTION

The Heat are fine without Mike Miller: When you really look at these two teams, part of the reason why they are here once again is because they have basically the same rosters that they did a year ago. However, the Spurs have added an assassin from long range in Marco Belinelli, while Miami has lost one of its top guns in Miller. Just go back to that three-point play for the Heat in Game 6. Part of the reason why Ray Allen had the opportunity for a respectable look from downtown is because Tim Duncan wasn't on the court. He really didn't have anyone to guard with Miller out there as well at the de facto power forward position with James at the center spot. Now with Miller gone to Memphis, who is Miami going to put out there in that spot? Norris Cole? It's not nearly going to be good enough if this series plays out exactly as it did last season.

Age has caught up to the Spurs: Though we do believe that this is the end of the road for 37-year old Tim Duncan, we definitely challenge the thought that this team is too old to be effective. Sure, the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili troika has 103 years on this earth between them, but when you look up and down the lineup aside from that, there isn't much in the way of 30-somethings. Head Coach Gregg Popovich has done a fantastic job of limiting the minutes which all of his vets have played this year, and that has kept them fresh for this run in the playoffs. Meanwhile, there really is nothing but 30-somethings on the Heat right now (ok, James and Bosh are both 29), and that really shows that the window of opportunity is closing on this team without making another splash in free agency. If depth wins this series (and we think that it will), the Spurs are going to be the Larry O'Brien Trophy holders in another two weeks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fearless Prediction
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

Tony Parker's health will be the major variable over the next few weeks. If he's able to be his normal self, the Spurs have the firepower to reverse the 2013 Finals result. Seconds away from a six-game series win, a missed defensive rebound led to Ray Allen's heroic 3-pointer that forced OT and eventually, broke San Antonio's collective heart. That pain has been the driving force behind repeating as Western Conference champs, securing homecourt that should serve them well as the Finals return to a 2-2-1-1-1 format for the first time since 1984. The first two games work out beautifully for the Spurs since they begin on home soil and feature a 2-day break in between. If Parker can get loose enough to help San Antonio take advantage, it could capitalize on the Miami requiring an adjustment period against the best offensive team its seen in months. Kawhi Leonard will need to make LeBron James work for everything he gets, getting help from Danny Green and everyone else Gregg Popovich throws at him. It won't be easy, but Tim Duncan looks focused and prepared to right last year's wrong by exploiting the Heat's lack of size inside to collect a fifth championship.

Prediction: Spurs win 4-3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Road underdogs (MIAMI) in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game
45-18 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 25.2 units )

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points
83-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.2% | 38.1 units )
11-6 this year. ( 64.7% | 2.8 units )

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points good free throw shooting team - making >=76% of their free throws, slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season
132-74 since 1997. ( 64.1% | 50.6 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA playoffs

NBA Finals start Thursday night in San Antonio

Over is 48-36 in playoffs this season, 6-6 in this round..
Favorites are 34-50 in playoffs this season, 10-2 in this round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs

The Mets play the finale of their series against a Cubs team that is 1-5 in Travis Wood's last 6 starts as a favorite. New York is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105). Here are all of today's picks.


THURSDAY, JUNE 5
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: San Francisco at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.898; Cincinnati (Leake) 13.477
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under


Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.319; Washington (Fister) 14.457
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+165); Over


Game 905-906: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (de Grom) 15.829; Cubs (Wood) 13.180
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); N/A


Game 907-908: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 14.594; Colorado (Nicasio) 16.205
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over


Game 909-910: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 17.444; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 15.351
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145); Under


Game 911-912: Toronto at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 15.074; Detroit (Verlander) 16.111
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over


Game 913-914: LA Angels at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.239; Houston (Peacock) 14.821
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under


Game 915-916: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 17.716; Texas (Lewis) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over


Game 917-918: Miami at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.801; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 13.669
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over


Game 919-920: St. Louis at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 18.680; Kansas City (Ventura) 17.166
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under


Game 921-922: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.923; Minnesota (Correia) 16.378
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Connecticut

The Mystics head to Connecticut tonight to face a Sun team that is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Washington is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


THURSDAY, JUNE 5
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: San Antonio at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 107.108; New York 113.326
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6; 153
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 148
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Over


Game 653-654: Washington at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.882; Connecticut 104.703
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Spurs -4.5
Tigers(RL) -1.5(+123)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Cards -125

Orioles +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Thurs Washington -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Blue Jays on Wednesday and likes the Tigers and Spurs (series) on Thursday.

The deficit is 295 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Playoffs

Miami beat Spurs in seven games in Finals LY, escaping tough spot in Game 6 to pull out OT win when it appeared Spurs were going to win series. Heat is 4-3 on road in playoffs, 0-1 when getting points; they're 1-3 in last four games. Home team won 11 of last 14 series games. Seven of last nine Miami games went over total; six of last eight San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs won last eight home games, are 9-1 at home in playoffs, covering last seven home games. Neither team has played this month, so fatigue is no factor here.

Over is 48-36 in playoffs this season, 6-6 in last round..
Favorites are 34-50 in playoffs this season, 10-2 in last round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs look for revenge

Miami Heat (66-31) at San Antonio Spurs (74-26)

Line and Total: San Antonio -3.5, Total: 198.5

Game 1 of the NBA Finals kicks off Thursday night in San Antonio when the Spurs look to get revenge on the Heat for what happened in 2013.

Miami advanced to the championship with a 117-92 blowout victory versus the Pacers in a home Game 6, while San Antonio actually had to work hard for a 112-107 road win in Game 6 over Oklahoma City. Last year, these two teams met in the NBA Finals where the Heat ultimately won their second straight championship with a Game 7 victory.

Over the past three seasons, the Spurs are 3-2 SU and ATS versus Miami when at home, but overall, the Heat are 8-4 SU while the two teams have split games 6-6 ATS. Twenty-eight of the past 39 games played in this series have gone Under the total since 1996. San Antonio star PG Tony Parker (ankle) is likely to play in Game 1 after missing most of the second half of the team's series-clinching win in the Western Conference Finals.

For interested bettors, Miami is 16-5 ATS over the past two seasons after three straight games forcing its opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers. The Heat are also 11-3 ATS when playing five or less games in 14 days this season. However, the Spurs are 43-24 ATS in non-conference games over the past two seasons, and 32-17 ATS after a combined score of 205+ points this season.

The Heat embarrassed the Pacers in Game 6 behind an impressive overall team effort. SF LeBron James (27.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) had an excellent game, finishing with 25 points (8-of-12 FG), six assists and four rebounds after having just seven points in Game 5. James was unstoppable attacking the rim, and really had it going from mid-range. He should have more difficulty against a Spurs team that tries to make the role players beat them.

PF Chris Bosh (15.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) really got himself going in the final three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. Bosh averaged 23.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.3 BPG over that final stretch, and his outside shot appeared to be back after he struggled mightily in the opening rounds of this postseason. Bosh will need to have a big series, as he is the only player with size on the Heat roster, and will be going up against some talented frontcourt players.

SG Dwyane Wade (18.7 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) had just 13 points in 25 minutes in Game 6, but he did have six assists and six rebounds. Wade looked like his old self in the first three rounds for Miami. If he can continue to drive aggressively and hit his outside shot occasionally, it will really help open up the floor for James in this series.

SG Ray Allen (9.1 PPRG, 3.5 RPG in playoffs) had some big moments against the Pacers, and the Heat will need his shooting off the bench against San Antonio.

Last year, the Spurs were devastated when a missed layup late in the series by PF Tim Duncan (16.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) fell just short, which helped allow the Heat to win the NBA championship. Despite suffering from that loss, the Spurs have rebounded and made it all the way back for some revenge in 2014. Duncan has been a man on a mission for the Spurs, finishing with 19 points and 15 rebounds in a closeout game on the road against the Thunder. San Antonio force-fed him the ball late and he delivered down the stretch on nearly every touch. Duncan will need to be aggressive in his matchup with the weaker Chris Bosh.

PG Tony Parker (17.2 PPG, 4.9 APG in playoffs) was injured in Game 6 against the Thunder and was able to play only 19 minutes, but he is likely to play in Game 1 against Miami. Parker will need to use his speed to make sure he is making a living in the paint because the Heat point guards are one of the team’s major weaknesses.

SG Manu Ginobili (14.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) had 15 points, six rebounds, five assists and four steals in Game 6 against the Thunder. Ginobili was all over the place for San Antonio in that series, making timely baskets and coming away with steals when the Spurs needed him most. His matchup with Dwyane Wade could come a long way in determining who wins this series.

SF Kawhi Leonard (13.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) will be faced with the difficult task of covering LeBron James for most of this series. C Boris Diaw (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.7 APG in playoffs), who had 26 points (8-of-14 FG) in Game 6, will also check James for a couple of possessions per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team (WASHINGTON) well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) excellent free throw shooting team (>=80%) against an average free throw shooting team (71-76%), after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better
69-31 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Away dogs continue to roll against runline
By ANDREW CALEY

If you backed away dogs against the runline in major league action Wednesday night you probably went home happy.

Road underdogs took it to their home side counterparts last night going 8-2 against the runline, a success rate of an impressive 80 percent.

Taking away dogs against the runline has been the best bet in baseball all season, hitting at almost 64 percent for the season.

The biggest away dogs to come through were the Miami Marlins at +197, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

St Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals conclude their home-home I-70 interleague set with Royals having notched two victories in St Louis and Cardinals getting a little revenge with a win last night in K.C. St Louis mired in a 3-7 slump send out Michael Wacha, who currently sports a 4-3 record with a 2.45 ERA. The record disguises the fact that the right-hander has shown a dominating presence tossing 10 quality starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 12 trips to the mound. The Royals have Yordano Ventura scheduled to start. Ventura ridding an 0-4 skid is 2-5 on the campaign with a 3.45 ERA and returns after nine days of rest having skipped his last turn of the rotation. Wacha in fine form, St Louis 3-1 in his last four appearances, Ventura struggling look for Cardinals to extend it's 8-0 streak playing in Royals' back yard and it's move to 17-6 as a favorite of -$1.10 to -$1.50 in interleague action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 2.31 in his last six starts.
-- Leake has 2.59 RA in his last six.
-- Fister is 3-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- De Grom has a 2.42 RA in four starts, but no wins.

-- Tanaka is 3-1, 1.82 in his last four starts.
-- Happ is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Peacock is 1-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts.

-- Wacha is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 4.99 in his last five starts.
-- Wood has an 8.00 RA in his last five starts.
-- Nicasio is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 4.95 in his last three.

-- Pomeranz is 1-1, 6.75 in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 2-2, 7.92 in his last four starts.
-- Tillman has a 10.13 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lewis is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three outings.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 6.23 in his last couple starts.

-- Turner is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-2, 5.79 in his last three outings.
-- Ventura is 0-4, 5.91 in his last four starts.
-- Peralta is 0-4, 3.94 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Bumgarner 2-12; Leake 2-11
-- Kendrick 6-11 (5 of last 6); Fister 2-5
-- DeGrom 0-4; Wood 3-11
-- Arroyo 5-11; Nicasio 5-11 (4 of last 5)

-- Pomeranz 0-5; Tanaka 3-11
-- Happ 0-6; Verlander 4-12
-- Skaggs 5-10; Peacock 2-7
-- Tillman 5-12 (5 of last 7); Lewis 3-9

-- Turner 2-7; Odorizzi 0-11
-- Wacha 3-12; Ventura 4-10
-- Peralta 1-11; Correia 2-11

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Giant games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Cub games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.

-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Bronx home games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 16 Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight St Louis games.

Hot teams
-- Giants won ten of their last 13 games.
-- Cincinnati won four of last five.
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six home games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Arizona won four of its last five road games.

-- Toronto won 16 of its last 19 games.
-- Oakland won its last five games, scoring 37 runs.
-- Baltimore won its last four road games.

-- Marlins won their last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado lost seven of its last eight games.

-- Bronx lost 12 of its last 16 home games.
-- Detroit lost 11 of its last fifteen games.
-- Texas is 4-11 in its last fifteen home games.
-- Angels lost six of their last nine games.
-- Houston lost three of last four. .

-- Tampa Bay lost its last nine games.
-- Milwaukee lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight games overall.

Umpires
-- Phil-Wsh-- Five of last seven Kulpa games stayed under.
-- SF-Cin-- Home side won eight of last ten Morales games.
-- NY-Chi-- Last seven Fagan games stayed under the total.
-- Az-Col-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Estabrook games.

-- A's-NY-- Five of last seven Hallion games stayed under.
-- Tor-Det-- Underdogs won four of last five Rackley games.
-- Balt-Tex-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven LBarrett games.
-- LA-Hst-- All three Campos games went over the total.

-- TB-Mia-- Six of seven Conroy games went over the total.
-- StL-KC-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Scott games.
-- Mil-Min-- Seven of nine Segal games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY METS at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
51-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.1% | 27.3 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
OAKLAND is 11-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in Road games on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: OAKLAND (6.8) , OPPONENT (2.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Linecatchers:

Playersbet Free Play

Washington Nationals -1 -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three big betting trends for the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals have arrived, which means a much-anticipated rematch between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs, and a final opportunity for basketball bettors to scratch their itch prior to the offseason.

Here are three trends to pay attention to entering the NBA Finals:

Favorites, Under Rule Game 1

Looking for a strong start? Take the favorite and the Under in the opening game. Over the past seven NBA championship series, the favorite has covered the Game 1 spread six times. San Antonio's stunning 92-88 road victory over the Heat in the opening game of last year's NBA Finals is the only time in that stretch the underdog has covered.

The Under has been nearly as strong a trend over that span. Teams boast a 1-5-1 O/U mark over the previous seven openers, with Miami's 121-106 shootout win over Oklahoma City in 2012 the only Over in that time.

Miami Means More Offense

The Heat will participate in their fourth consecutive NBA Finals and their presence has meant more Overs than in seasons past. Miami and its Finals opponents - San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Dallas - have combined to go a respectable 9-7-2 O/U over the previous three championship series, running in stark contrast to the woeful 6-15-1 mark compiled by teams in the previous four NBA Finals.

Both the Heat and Spurs have been strong Over plays all year. Miami went 44-38 O/U in the regular season and is 11-4 O/U in the playoffs, while the Spurs were 44-37-1 O/U during the year and are 10-8 O/U in the postseason.

Spurs Stout at Home

It's one thing for a team to protect its home court, it's another for that team to do so against formidable road opponents. The Spurs, who will host the Heat in Thursday's NBA Finals opener, have covered in seven straight home games against teams with winning road records.

That stretch has seen the Spurs reel off seven consecutive home victories by an average of 23.7 points against the Thunder, Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers, who combined to go 71-52 on the road in the regular season. The Heat were 22-19 on the road in the regular season and are 4-3 away from home in the playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win NBA:

1.5* GAME: Heat-Spurs o198.5 (-110: Risking 1.55 units to win 1.50 units) - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Michael (YouWinNow) - #702 San Antonio -4

The Spurs have a big time revenge angle going here and I think that it will be a big time motivator for them here in game 1. Now add to that the fired up crowd and the history of game 1 losses by the Heat. Miami always seems to lose game 1 but find a way to win, I see the losing this game 1 as well. Take the Spurs here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals +109 over St. Louis Cardinals
(System Record: 35-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 35-30

Hockey Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 24-2: overall 24-16-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 115-90-3

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs -180 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: system 17-1: overall 17-18-3, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 95-103-8

Soccer Crusher
Ham Kam + FK Haugesund UNDER 3
This match is happening in Norway
(System Record: 584-21, lost last game and a push)
Overall Record: 584-488-85

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Miami Marlins +127 over Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees -150 over Oakland A's
Colorado Rockies -137 over Arizona Dbacks


Hockey
no play


Basketball
San Antonio Spurs + Miami Heat OVER 198.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 Units Cardinals -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FiveHoleFreddy

Brewers ML "2*"
Angels/Astros Under 9 "2*"

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

"Mr Chalk" won on Wednesday in MLB in the American League with the Indians -$150/Red Sox.

For Thursday in the NBA Finals E&B like the Spurs -2/Heat for the first half.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB

E&B split with his soccer wagers on Tuesday winning with Bosnia +$220/Mexico and losing a play on the draw.

Ben lee is 1-3 -$93 for week thirty two and 139-159-5 -$2723 through Thirty One weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 26-26 -$670 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NBA Finals – Game 1

SAN ANTONIO -4½ -105 over Miami

(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

Yes, defense wins championships, as long as it is paired with a good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 of the past 30 Finals and with home court edge they have won the first game by 5 points or more 86% of the time. The importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions while Miami finished 11th. The Heat would be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st). Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs and they played some very average teams to get here.

It’s safe to suggest that the Spurs and Heat were equals last year and one could make a strong case for the Heat getting extremely lucky in that fateful Game 6. This year they are not equal. While San Antonio has seen a number of key players improve this season — Manu Ginobili has bounced back, Kawhi Leonard continues to grow, Tiago Splitter is better, Boris Diaw is playing the best ball of his life — a Miami team that lost Mike Miller and hasn’t gotten much from Greg Oden or Michael Beasley seems to have taken a half-step backwards this season. The Heat’s interior defense is an area San Antonio can exploit. If Luis Scola of the Pacers can abuse Bosh on the low block, which he often did, what damage might Tim Duncan do? And, assuming Tony Parker’s ankle is healthy, which Miami perimeter defender is going to keep him out of the paint? LeBron can’t be everywhere.

The Spurs’ depth gives them a greater margin for error and their chemistry on both ends right now is second-to-none. Furthermore, San Antonio has been playing against high level competition for the last few weeks, while Miami will likely face an adjustment period after playing a depressed Eastern Conference and an offensively-deficient Indiana team. Even though extra motivation concept is mostly sports movie myth, Duncan’s “this time we’re going to do it,” declaration is hard to dismiss. When a team as skilled, precise and focused as the Spurs are right now, it may be foolish to go against them in the tone setting first game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Milwaukee @ MINNESOTA

Milwaukee/MINNESOTA over 8½ -114

(Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)

Wily Peralta has a 2.73 ERA after 11 starts and because of that low ERA we get a very beatable number here. Peralta’s in for some serious ERA regression and now is the time to take advantage before the market catches up. Peralta does not have a varied pitch mix. He’s a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider. Two-pitch pitchers rarely have long-term success at this level. Hitters have a 50% chance of “guessing” correctly and probably a 75% chance when he’s behind in the count. Peralta’s low ERA is a direct result of an unsustainable 84% strand rate, which is the highest among all starters in the majors with eight starts or more. It doesn’t take long for major league hitters to figure out ordinary pitchers and Peralta is as ordinary as they come. It’s only a matter of time before those stranded runners start crossing the plate and these hot-hitting Twins, with 10 hits or more in six of their last seven games are very likely going to cash in a bunch of them.

Then there’s Kevin Correia. Correia is 1-4 at Target Field with an ERA of 7.09. He also comes into this start with a 1.54 WHIP and a home oppBA of .312. He is consistent though, as his oppBA on the road is .313. In 33 innings at Target Field, Correia has struck out 13 batters. His swing and miss rate at home is 3%, which is the lowest in the majors of any pitcher with one start or more. If there was a live GM draft with 150 starters (five on each team x 30 teams), thrown into a pool, Kevin Correia would be chosen 150th by all 30 GM’s. If he throws a good game it’s pure luck because this stiff is nothing but batting practice out there and it would come as no surprise if the Brew Crew went over this number on their own.


Toronto @ DETROIT

Toronto +132 over DETROIT

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.64)

1:05 PM EST. With J.A. Happ going and with Edwin Encarnacion likely sitting this one out, the assignment today for the Blue Jays may seem like a difficult one. Happ comes in with a 4.10 ERA and a fly-ball bias profile so there is a strong chance of him getting roughed up a bit. However, we once again point out that the Blue Jays are playing too good to ignore as a dog, especially in this price range. Toronto is absolutely on fire while the Tigers have just four wins in their past 16 games. Even if Happ and the Jays pen, which is much stronger than the Tigers pen, gives up four or more, the Jays offense is capable of doing the same to Justin Verlander and Detroit’s volatile bullpen.

Two months into the 2014 season, the Justin Verlander we once knew has yet to make an appearance. After 12 starts and 79 innings pitched, Verlander sports a 3.99 ERA, a 57/31 K/BB split and he has looked more like a run-of-the-mill starter than a former Cy Young award winner. It’s not a case of bad luck or just one of those slow starts that several pitchers have every year either. Verlander’s strikeout rate decline stands out immediately and is likely correlated to diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career and actually marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. A lack of a dominant heater has forced him to paint the corners more and thus far he's failing to do so by walking nearly four batters a game. Hit % and strand % cancel each other out so his bloated xERA of 4.63 is a product of both poor skills and an abnormally low hr/f%. Things actually could get worse for Verlander before they get better. At age 31 with more than 1800 IP on his arm, we may in fact be looking at Verlander's new normal and signs of a rebound do not exist. Verlander’s swing and miss rate has been on a steady decline all season. Without his typical 95-98 MPH fastball to fall back on, Verlander has far less room for error and it seems he's having trouble adjusting. Counting him out would be a mistake, but xERA casts an ominous shadow over the potential for an imminent return to form. Verlander is priced like an ace but he’s not close to pitching like one and we’ll look to take advantage.


Miami @ TAMPA BAY

Miami +140 over TAMPA BAY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

4:10 PM EST. In 33 home games, the Rays have 11 wins. Against Randy Wolf in the opener of this series the Rays scored one run. Tampa got lucky last night with a couple of home-runs, a real rarity for them, but still lost 5-4 to run their losing streak to nine games. Prior to last night they had gone six straight games scoring two runs or less. Now Wil Myers is on the DL to add to their misery. The Rays are last in the AL East and they’re 13 games behind the Blue Jays. In other words, it’s early June and the Rays are out of it. Jake Odorizzi has great potential, as evidenced by his solid 11% swing and miss rate and his 63 K’s in 53 innings. However, Odorizzi walks too many batters, which has led to an unacceptable 1.54 WHIP and 5.13 ERA. He is constantly behind in the count and it’s also worth noting that his batted ball groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is weak at 36%/24%/40%.

Against David Price, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, arguably the best top three starters on the same team in the majors, the Marlins strung together some hits and ended up winning all three. Now Jacob Turner gets his turn to try and dominate a lineup that is pressing hard and missing everything. Turner has quietly put together a solid string of five starts in May covering 28 innings. Over that span, Turner has an elite 55% groundball rate, a swinging strike rate of 14% and an xERA of 3.68. Turner is looking like a former first-round pick that was a key to the Anibal Sanchez trade two summers ago. An unlucky 35% hit rate in May has kept his ERA above 4.00 but all the signs are there of him taking a big leap the rest of the way. At age 23 with 1st-round pedigree, Turner should be on your watch list because he’s so close to being extremely relevant and we‘ll put that to the test here. Big overlay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharpsyndicate

4* Milwaukee Brewers ML

3* Colorado Rockies ML

1* St. Louis Cardinals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

4* St. Louis (Wacha) -125 over Kansas City (Ventura)
Range: -110 to -150

3* N.Y. Mets (DeGrom) +100 over Chicago Cubs (Wood)
Range: +120 to -125

3* Miami/San Antonio UNDER 199 (NBA)
Range: 201 to 197

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

4* St. Louis (Wacha) -125 over Kansas City (Ventura)
Range: -110 to -150

3* N.Y. Mets (DeGrom) +100 over Chicago Cubs (Wood)
Range: +120 to -125

3* Miami/San Antonio UNDER 199 (NBA)
Range: 201 to 197

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 7.5 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals

100* Colorado Rockies -130

50* Milwaukee Brewers -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS (NBA)

8-Unit NBA Finals – Game of the Year – #702 Take San Antonio -4 over Miami (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMBLING GOD

League: NBA Finals
Heat vs Spurs
Pick: Spurs Team Total over 101 points
Risk:$110 to win $100
Time: 6:00 PM PT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Thursday Night MLB Team Total

ARIZONA D-BACKS – OVER 4.5 RUNS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Linecatchers

Playersbet Paid Card

3 units: St. Louis Cardinals -115


2 units: New York Yankees -1 +100

Yankees are 8-1 in Tanakas last 9 start


2 units: San Francisco Giants -1 -105

Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.


4 units: Washington Nationals

As we been saying this whole time the Phillies are in a bad spot right now. The home team is 14-6 in Kulpas last 20 games behind home plate vs. Washington. The Nationals come into tonights game 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a right handed starter.


Free Play

Washington Nationals -1 -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* NBA Finals Game 1 Top Total [20-12 63% NBA Playoff Run]

10* Over 198.5 Miami Heat/San Antonio Spurs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BILL MARZANO

San Antonio Spurs -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire Streakers

• [1912] DET/TOR '1st 5' O5 (+100) 2*

• [917] MIA/TB O7.5 (+100)

• [920] KC/STL U7.5 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Ross

MLB

1* Cincinnati Reds

2* Over 7 San Francisco Giants/Cincinnati Reds

3* Under 9 Toronto Blue Jays/Detroit Tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTi Sports

Oakland Athletics

Toronto Blue Jays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

WNBA

3-Unit Play. #653. Take Under 147 Washington vs. Connecticut (Thursday @ 7:05pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

Early MLB

Detroit/Toronto Over Total -Best Bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raymond Dunavant

Cincinnati Reds / SF Giants OVER 7

Oakland A's +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MADDUX

MLB

San Francisco Giants -117 (Early game)

[golden contender]

Thursday game 1 NBA Finals 6* Side with 5 Perfect systems and Statistical Indicators. NBA Top plays 74% the last 4+ years. MLB 5* Blowout system of the week wins by an average 5 runs per game. MLB Sweeps on Wednesday. Free MLB Play below





On Thursday the MLB Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 918 at 4:10 eastern. The Rays will look to avoid a 4 game sweep to Miami in the inter league series here tonight and snap a 9 game losing streak. they fit a solid yet complicated system that has won 13 of 15 times. We want to play on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are coming off a home favored loss at -140 or higher with a total that was 8 or less and they scored 4 or less runs and had an error, vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no errors. Miami has lost 11 of 14 as a road dog off a road dog win where they scored 5 or more runs. Tampa has J. Odorizzi going today and he has a solid 2.88 home era. he will take on J. Turner who has a mediocre 5.59 era this season. Look for Tampa Bay to take the finale and move to 8-2 in home game vs Miami. message to Jump on for Thursday as we have a Huge 6* NBA Finals Game 1 selections that has an unprecedented 5 Perfect systems, angles and Indicators. NBA Playoff Top plays cashing 74% the last 4+ seasons. In MLB Its the 5* Blowout Game of the week from a sick system that's winning by over 5 runs per game on average and is included with the analysis. MLB Top play cashes on Wednesday with the Cardinals. Both games have a comprehensive analysis with the finest data available. For the free play take Tampa Bay. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Playersbet

3 units: Cards -115

2 units: NYY -1 +100
Yankees are 8-1 in Tanakas last 9 start

2 units: San Fran -1 -105
Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

4 units: Nats
As we been saying this whole time the Phillies are in a bad spot right now. The home team is 14-6 in Kulpas last 20 games behind home plate vs. Washington. The Nationals come into tonights game 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a right handed starter.

Washington Nationals -1 -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik

2* San Antonio Spurs

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DAVE AQUINO
Today's Selections


MLB: angels/astros under 9


NHL: none


NBA: none


WNBA: Washington +1.5, mystics/sun under 147

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Philly Ross

Future World Cup Prop Bet

To Win World Cup

Argentina +375

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Thursday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Fister finding form with Nats

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Wednesday's major league games:

Tiger Troubles

The Detriot Tigers have lost 12 of their last 16 games losing eight of nine in that streak while favored. The Tigers (-141, 9) turn to Justin Verlander to stop the bleeding vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Verlander has had his fair share of troubles as well, giving up 19 runs in his last four outings.

A's Back on Track

After a mini-slump to end May, the A's are back to their normal selves on route to five straight wins. The A's have posted a 4-1 over/under mark during the streak in which they have outscored opponents by over four runs per game. They have a tough task against the New York Yankees (-159, 7.5) and Masahiro Tanaka.

Skid has Rays Sinking

The Rays just cannot catch a break, unless it is in Wil Myers' wrist. Losers of nine straight (3-6 over/under), the Rays (-152, 7.5) turn to Jake Odorizzi to halt their skid when they face the Miami Marlins. Unfortunately the Rays are just 2-8 in Odorizzi's 10 starts this season.

Pitching Notes

* Doug Fister makes his sixth start of the season for the Nationals (-184, 7.5) at home against the Phillies. Since a rough outing in his first start, Fister has surrendered just six runs in his last 25.1 innings. The Nats have been giving Fister good support scoring 5.8 runs per game good for a 3-1-1 over/under mark.

* Wily Peralta hasn't had much luck in his last seven outings for the Brewers. Despite a 2.73 ERA and giving up more than 3 runs just once in those outings, he has recorded just one win in that span. The Brewers play the Minnesota Twins as -120 favorites, but are 0-4 in Peralta's last four starts as a favorite.

Hitting Notes

* The San Diego Padres beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 Wednesday in true Padres fashion, by recording just one hit in the game. It was the third one-hit victory in franchise history and improved their league leading over/under standing to 20-37-3. The Padres are off Thursday before starting a three-game series with Washington Friday.

* The Arizona Diamondbacks exploded for 16 runs in their victory over the Colorado Rockies Wednesday night. It is the third time since May 17 they have scored at least 12 runs. The D-Backs seem to be all-or-nothing though, going 5-12 over/under since then. The total for today's game vs. the Rockies is at 10.5.

Totals Streak

Milwaukee Brewers (8-1 over/under): Including one shutout at the hands of the Cubs, the Brewers have gone on a scoring tear, averaging 6.1 runs per game to help the hot run against the over. The Brewers face their highest total during the current streak against the Twins today, with the over/under set at 9.

Injury Notes

* New York Yankees outfielder and DH Carlos Beltran played his final rehab game Wednesday and could return to the Bronx Bombers lineup as early as today against the Oakland Athletics. The Yankees have gone 11-10 SU, 8-13 over.under without Beltran, good for -$231 units.

* Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout is now listed as doubtful to play Thursday's game against the Houston Astros after he re-aggravated his nagging back injury Tuesday night. An MRI Wednesday revealed no serious damage, but did show some inflammation.

Weather Watch

There is rain expected for the series finale between the Oakland Athletics and the New York Yankees. If the game gets played there will also be a 10-11 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from third to first. The over is 5-0 in games at Yankee Stadium where this is the wind is blowing like this.

Umpire Stat of the Day

Umpire Dale Scott will be calling balls and strikes for the interleague game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals. The under is 6-0 in Scott's last six games when he his behind the plate. The total for the game is currently at 7.5.

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Baseball33

MLB

Colorado Rockies - Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies


Houston Astros - Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels

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Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 0-10 since September 05, 2013 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games but scored less than 10 runs last game for a net profit of $1070 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Justin Verlander starts the Tigers are 11-0 since July 07, 2009 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.

SDQL CHOICE TREND:

The Blue Jays are 8-0 since May 07, 2014 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $985.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-13 since June 13, 2013 after a quality start for a net profit of $1119 when playing against.

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LT LOCK

Heat +5

Cubs -120

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Bob Balfe

Milwaukee -120

Peralta/Correia
The Twins are not a very good baseball team and have been actually overachieving so far this year. The Brewers have been hitting the ball very well and Peralta has been having a pretty good year other than the lack of run support he has gotten in his starts. Take the Brewers.

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VEGAS SHARP

5 Units San Antonio Spurs -3.5 over Miami Heat

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Strike Point Sports

MLB

7 Unit Baltimore Orioles

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Minnesota Twins +108 over the Milwaukee Brewers (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:10 PM EST

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Kevin's Pick(s):
A good night last night as the Giants win, and the Kyle hit his pick on the OVER in the Jays/Tigers game I was watching live at Comerica. It was a great night for a ball game, and I'm heading back to watch their afternoon game today. No write up for today's play because I did my handicapping from the hotel. Lets get another winner.
2 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees - YANKEES TO WIN (-135)
Listed Pitchers: Pomeranz vs Tanaka
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.48 units)


Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 7 RUNS (+118)
Listed Pitchers: Bumgarner vs. Leake
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.36 units)
If that didn't hit last night it would have been a bad beat. The Tigers had the bases loaded with no outs but failed to score one run. I stopped how many LOB they had. I thought it was another one of those nights, thankfully though a bases clearing double in the top of the 9th took care of any bad beat in the works.
Early afternoon play here. I think there is value to be had at +118 so this play is worth a look. What we have is a couple solid pitchers that have excelled on the road and at home. First, Mike Leake hasn't gotten much recognition, but he's quietly asserted himself in the Reds' rotation as a reliable pitcher. His ERA is strong with a 2.92 and a 1.06 WHIP. Leake has been shining at home, where his ERA is 2.51 and a 0.94 WHIP. Leake in his last six starts has given up more than 2 runs only once. His last three outings yielded a 2.41 ERA. At home this season he hasn't given up more than 3 runs in four starts. Conversely, Madison Bumgarner has been money away from San Francisco. His ERA is only 1.58 on the road with a 1.08 WHIP and .272 OBP. The most runs Bumgarner has allowed away is 3, which occurred only once against the Rockies, a difficult park for pitchers. The rest of his six starts on the road produced less than 3 runs. He's been solid in his last three starts as well: 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .234 OBP. Both pitchers have the potential of getting into a 4-1, 3-1 type game and with the price, I like this bet. I'll take the UNDER 7.

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Detroit -150 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

Detroit has won 90 of the last 154 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have won 52 of the last 81 games vs. AL East Division Opponents.Detroit has won 86 of the last 154 day games and they have won 114 of the last 177 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher.

================================================== ===



50* Play Washington -170 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Tampa Bay -140 over Miami (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Cincinnati +110 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)

Cincinnati is 86-56 in day games the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 51-35 vs. NL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 96-65 when batting .250 or worse over the last twenty games


10* Play Minnesota +110 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)

Milwaukee is 10-24 when playing on a Thursday the last three seasons
Milwaukee is 33-48 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
Milwaukee is 5-13 vs. AL Central Division Opponents the last three seasons


=============================================

5* Play New York Mets +110 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Baltimore +110 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL




Play New York Mets +110 over Chicago Cubs---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:10 PM EST


Travis Wood has lost 22 of the last 34 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has lost 11 of the last 14 games when pitching in the month of June. Travis Wood has lost 5 of the last 7 games when pitching on a Thursday and he has an ERA of 5.82 over the last three starts.





Play Baltimore +110 over Texas----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
8:10 PM EST


Miguel Gonzalez has won 7 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Thursday and he has won 4 of the last 5 games when pitching in the month of June. Miguel Gonzalez has won 23 of the last 39 night games and he has an ERA of 2.89 over the last three starts.

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL



Play San Antonio -4 over Miami (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
9:00 PM EST


San Antonio has covered the spread in 20 of the last 31 games after allowing 105 points or more in their last game and they have covered the spread in 33 of the last 54 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.San Antonio has covered the spread in 71 of the last 117 playoff home games and they are averaging 107 points a game at home this season.

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FantasySportsGametime

THURSDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play San Antonio -4 over Miami (TOP NBA PLAY)

San Antonio has won 18 of the last 22 games when playing with three or more days of rest and they have won 23 of the last 27 games when the total posted is between 190 and 199.5 points.San Antonio has won 25 of the last 31 games after allowing 105 points or more in their last game and they are averaging 105 points a game this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

10* Play San Antonio -4 over Miami (Top NBA Play)

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Free Play: Miami vs Tampa Bay Over 7.5

Thursday 6/5 Service Plays


NBA

Spurs -4

MLB

Washington RL -1.5 +105

Yankees vs Oakland Under 7.5

St. Louis -115

Milwaukee RL -1.5 +125

Colorado RL -1.5 +150

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Tampasports

houston r.line best bet
ariz/colorado under total
milwaukee m.line

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Bryan Leonard

Chicago Cubs

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Steve Fezzik

Prop bet

Lebron James Under 27.5 -130

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Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Chicago Cubs

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Sheep

Nba Prop - Under 27 1/2 (-120) Lebron James Pts

913 Over 9 (-120) Laa-Hou

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Scotty Shiller

2* Under 9.5 -110 Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros

4* Baltimore Orioles -105

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Bookieshunter

1* Over 197.5 Heat/Spurs

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Eric Henderson

Today's Selections

MLB: angels/astros under 9

NHL: none

NBA: none

WNBA: Washington +1.5, mystics/sun under 147

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Steve Stevens


San Antonio Spurs -4.5
St Louis Cardinals ML

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Sheep
921 Milwaukee -125
908 Under 10 1/2 (-120) Arz-Col

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Sharpsyndicate
Angels/Astros Under 9.5 x2
Balt/Tex Under 9.5 x3

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 6/5

MLB Baseball
Kansas City Royals +101 over the St. Louis Cardinals
(Money Line Bet)
Overall Record: 267-238
(System Record: 267-13, Won last game)

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Primetime Insiders

3* Angels
2* Under Royals
1* Angels (RL)
1* Under Mets
1* Under Twins

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David Banks


Best bet
#916 8:05 texas rangers-108 lewis


mlb
#902 12:35 cincinnati reds+120 leake
#907-908 8:40 arizona--colorado over 10
#908 8:40 colorado rockies-125 nicasio


nba
#702 9:00 san antonio spurs-4.5

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Maddux


MLB


Milwaukee

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Dr. Bob

Series Recommendation

San Antonio Spurs

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Denver Money Free Play:

Milwaukee Brewers -127

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Raymond Dunavant

New York Mets

Texas Rangers

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Philly Ross

Added

2* Under 9.5 Baltimore Orioles/Texas Rangers

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PhillyGodFather
STRAIGHT BET [913] TOTAL o9-113 (LAA vrs HOU) ( T SKAGGS -L / B PEACOCK -R ):

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Sharp bettors in love with Spurs in Game 1
By ANDREW AVERY

The San Antonio Spurs are out for revenge in the 2014 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat. The Spurs lost in seven games in the 2013 final, and bettors like them, at the very least, to take Game 1 on their home floor.

Oddsmakers opened the Spurs as 3.5-point home faves in Game 1 and they've certainly been hot on their home floor. The Spurs are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven home games heading into Thursday's game.

"Spread opened at San Antonio -3.5 and early sharp bettors hit it hard and forced us to adjust the line twice," says Brad Kennedy of TopBet.eu. "It is currently sitting at San Antonio -4.5 and we are seeing very even action since the second adjustment."

Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag has reported similar action among their sharp bettors.

"We immediately booked sharp action on our opening number (-3.5) and we quickly went to Spurs -4," Stewart tells Covers. "We dealt that number pretty much most of the week, but did go to -4 (-115) early Tuesday morning as more money was coming in on the Spurs at -4 flat. Early yesterday evening we went to Spurs -4.5, the number we’re currently dealing. At 4.5, we’ve seen dead even money and dead even at bets written, so I very much doubt we’ll be moving off 4.5 and I firmly believe that will be our closing number."

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bookiemonsters

Orioles +100 POD

MG plays
Orioles over 9
Mets +105
Cardinals -113

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Marco D'Angelo Double Dime Massacre

Cubs (-117)

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Kelso

20 SA
20 Under 10 Parlay
50 KC

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

Pick: Under 100 1st Half

The Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs have survived the rigors of a long season, and three rounds of playoffs to meet in an encore performance in the NBA Finals. This year, unlike last, the Spurs will open the series with the home court advantage. Last season the Spurs led 3-2 in the series and had Miami on the ropes in Game Six, leading by five with :28 seconds left only to lose, and then lost the series in Game Seven. Miami does not look to be as good this season as they were a year ago, but anytime you have LeBron James on the court, you have to respect this team. One edge that the Spurs may have is the defensive work that has been done on James by Kawhi Leonard. The two meetings this season were rather eyeopening as the Heat scored just 87.9 points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the court, and 114.5 when he sat. Leonard will get a lot of minutes as it is the playoffs, so he could be responsible for holding the Heat down in the scoring column. These teams are fairly evenly matched, and I expect a chess match early as the offenses try and see where they can attack and have success while the defenses come out playing strong to impose their will on the game. I see an early game tendency for the defenses to win out, much the same as we saw a year ago. Play the first half UNDER.

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Dr Bob

Thursday 2-Star Best Bet

San Antonio Spurs

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Ness

Legend - Spurs

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Las Vegas Pipeline

20* Heat

15* Rockies

10* Stl.

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Brandon Lang

150 DIME MAX WAGER PLAYOFF WINNER #2 IN A ROW

San Antonio Spurs over Miami Heat

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Rooster

Ari/Col Under 10 -110

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Sportshandicappers

Milwaukee Brewers