6-10-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the day: Spurs at Heat

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-4.5, 197.5)

Series tied 1-1

LeBron James avoided cramping issues in Game 2 and he looks to help Miami take the series lead when the Heat host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. James received plenty of criticism for the Game 1 situation in which he missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes but his legs held up fine on Sunday as Miami evened the series. James had 35 points and 10 rebounds in Game 2.

San Antonio played a lackluster fourth quarter in Sunday’s 98-96 loss and a tipping point was when point guard Tony Parker and power forward Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span with the Spurs leading by two points midway through the stanza. James scored the next five points and San Antonio held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance. “Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened at -4 and quickly moved to -4.5. The total opened at 198.5 and has been bet down to 197.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Opened Miami -4 (-115). Line has been up about 12 hours and 71 percent of cash and 63 percent of bets on the spread backing Miami. On the moneyline, Spurs who are +155, getting 53 percent of cash and -175 favorite Heat getting 63 percent of bets." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.com (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Home court advantage is significant, both the Spurs and the Heat have been 4 to 4.5-point favorites in their own buildings over the first three games depending on where you shop. This series has quickly turned into a classic coaching battle. The Spurs' Gregg Popovich has already been tested by both Dallas and Oklahoma City, but for the most part the Heat have cruised to this point. Eric Spolestra made some savvy moves in Game 2 of the Finals though, so now it's time for Pop to respond. They went a full seven last year and once again, whichever team makes the quicker adjustments from game to game will be the one that comes out on top in this one." - Covers Expert Nick Parsons

ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio closed Game 1 with an impressive 31-9 burst but lacked a finishing kick in Game 2 when it went 6-of-17 shooting in the final quarter. Coach Gregg Popovich noticed issues well before the final 12 minutes and was greatly disappointed with the club’s approach. “We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us,” Popovich said in his postgame media session. “It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else. It means we’re going to have to be perfect on defense, we can’t miss four free throws in a row, those sort of things.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Bosh scored 18 points in Game 2 as he was assertive in making sure he got his touches. He not only drained the decisive shot but also threaded a pinpoint pass to guard Dwyane Wade for a layup with 9.4 seconds to give the Heat an insurmountable five-point lead. James was most impressed with some dunks Bosh threw down while being ecstatic about his teammate’s solid all-around game. “He had two dunks that we haven’t seen in a long time, man,” James told reporters. “When he has that mindset, he just mixes it up. He’s the forgotten guy on our team. Shouldn’t be. Obviously, without his aggressiveness, we don’t win.”

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference.
* Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of wagers on Covers consensus on the Heat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

2* Spurs +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns 10* NBA Big Total Alert

Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/10/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 6/10/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Finals Betting News & Notes
NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who succeeded David Stern on Feb. 1, said Sunday night that the breakdown of the air conditioning during Game #1 “is certainly not one of my prouder moments of my short tenure” and “wasn’t handled perfectly.” Silver said that a few minutes before Game #1, the league was told that one of the main circuits that controls the water pump had broken.

At&T Center officials told the league they tried to reset it several times and determined late in the second quarter that they could not fix the circuit breaker. But the Heat was not informed of the problem until during the second quarter. “There always are going to be human and mechanical errors and it’s unfortunate,” Silver said. Silver said he wasn’t concerned about the possibility this series might be remembered for the malfunction. “I’m glad this isn’t single elimination,” he said.

Silver Addressed Other Issues:
Asked whether the breakup of the Heat or Thunder would be considered a success for the league under a labor deal designed to create competitive balance, Silver said: “I don’t know if I would necessarily call it a success. Our goal was not to break up teams. But ultimately, any type of cap system in essence is a form of player sharing. “So to the extent that James Harden leaves Oklahoma City and the Houston Rockets then become a competitive team, that’s a positive thing for the league. Part of the purpose of a cap system is so you don’t see too much talent aggregated in one market.”

Silver said the sale of the Clippers from Donald Sterling to Steve Ballmer for $2 billion will be voted on by mid-July or earlier, and the only holdup is Sterling’s lawsuit against the league and Silver. Sterling has said he will drop the suit, but Silver said it hasn’t happened yet. “I have absolute confidence it will be resolved because as part of the sale agreement with Shelly Sterling, she agreed to indemnify the league against a lawsuit by her husband,” Silver said. “So in essence, Donald is suing himself and he knows that. While I understand he is frustrated, I think it’s over.”
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National Basketball Association Finals

#705 SAN ANTONIO @ #706 MIAMI
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Heat -4.5, Total: 198.5) - LeBron James avoided cramping issues in Game #2 and he looks to help Miami take the series lead when the Heat host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night in Game #3 of the National Basketball Association Finals. James received plenty of criticism for the Game #1 situation in which he missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes but his legs held up fine on Sunday as Miami evened the series. James had 35 points and 10 rebounds in Game #2.

San Antonio played a lackluster fourth quarter in Sunday’s 98-96 loss and a tipping point was when point guard Tony Parker and power forward Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span with the Spurs leading by two points midway through the stanza. James scored the next five points and San Antonio held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance. “Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (75-27 SU, 55-47-0 ATS): San Antonio closed Game #1 with an impressive 31-9 burst but lacked a finishing kick in Game #2 when it went 6-of-17 shooting in the final quarter. Coach Gregg Popovich noticed issues well before the final 12 minutes and was greatly disappointed with the club’s approach. “We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us,” Popovich said in his postgame media session. “It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else. It means we’re going to have to be perfect on defense, we can’t miss four free throws in a row, those sort of things.”

•ABOUT THE HEAT (67-32 SU, 48-49-2 ATS): Bosh scored 18 points in Game #2 as he was assertive in making sure he got his touches. He not only drained the decisive shot but also threaded a pinpoint pass to guard Dwyane Wade for a layup with 9.4 seconds to give the Heat an insurmountable five-point lead. James was most impressed with some dunks Bosh threw down while being ecstatic about his teammate’s solid all-around game. “He had two dunks that we haven’t seen in a long time, man,” James told reporters. “When he has that mindset, he just mixes it up. He’s the forgotten guy on our team. Shouldn’t be. Obviously, without his aggressiveness, we don’t win.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Duncan has two double-doubles in the series to raise his career postseason count to 157 and tie former Los Angeles Lakers star Magic Johnson for most in NBA playoff history.... Miami F Rashard Lewis has scored in double digits in both games in the series and is 14-of-29 from 3-point range over the last four contests.... San Antonio F Kawhi Leonard fouled out of Game #2 and is averaging just nine points and two rebounds in the series.... The Heat are 55-37 versus the spread (59.7%) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 68-40 against the spread (62.9%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game, including 44-24 ATS (64.7%) 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections.(Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 574 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 426 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 530 times, while SAN ANTONIO won 451 times. In 1000 simulated games, 563 games went under the total, while 437 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 551 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 432 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 22-19 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 24-18 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--29 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 21-16 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--24 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Under is 25-11 in the last 36 meetings.
--Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.

--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

--Heat are 5-0 ATS L5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ games.
(41-22 since 1996.) (65.1%, +16.8 units. Rating = 1*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (51-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.7
The average score in these games was: Team 110.1, Opponent 99.1 (Average point differential = +11)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (39.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-15).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatSystemsSports
Inside the Paint- Tuesday

A lot was made of the Miami Heat's playoff record with the Big Three in the lineup after losing Game #1 in a series, but that's just a small part of a much larger trend. The Heat have now gone 47 consecutive postseason games without back-to-back losses. Currently the Heat are third all-time behind the 1962-66 Boston Celtics (54) and the 1990-93 Chicago Bulls (52). There is a chance that the Heat could tie the all-time record in these Finals.

NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The San Antonio Spurs not only lost Game #2 on the court, they also lost it for bettors. This loss at the betting window is a rare sight, that snaps a stunning ATS streak by the club. Before Sunday, the Spurs had covered eight straight games at home in the AT&T Center. Since dropping three-straight ATS decisions at home to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, The Spurs swept the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder for bettors at home. The Spurs enter Game #3 in Miami with a mediocre 2-6 ATS record on the road during the postseason.

Despite the Spurs dropping Game #2 Sunday, Tim Duncan still matched an National Basketball Association record. The 6-foot 11-inch power forward recorded a playoff double-double for the 157 game in his career. It took Duncan 231 postseason games to reach the mark, which means he has notched a double-double in 68 percent of his playoff contests. Duncan's performance Sunday ties him with Magic Johnson in the all-time history books.

Hoop Trends - Tuesday
•SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 107.6, OPPONENT 93.4.

•SAN ANTONIO is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 109.5, OPPONENT 100.2.

•MIAMI is 54-74 (-27.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.8, OPPONENT 48.3.

•SAN ANTONIO is 25-7 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 47.7.

•ERIK SPOELSTRA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games as a # 2 seed in the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was SPOELSTRA 99.6, OPPONENT 89.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Favorites versus the money line (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
(102-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +47.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -200.6
The average score in these games was: Team 102.8, Opponent 96.1 (Average point differential = +6.7)

The situation's record this season is: (26-9, +7.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (72-18, +36.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (336-150, -30.1 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Miami

The Heat head back home after knotting up the series with a 98-96 win in Game 2 and face a Spurs team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 road games. Miami is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.


TUESDAY, JUNE 10
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (6/9)


Game 705-706: San Antonio at Miami (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.827; Miami 133.581
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs-Heat Game 3: The game inside the game
By DAVID MALINSKY

Game #1 of this series was so much about what LeBron James could not do - play down the stretch. Game #2 was so much about what James could do, and did. But while the superlatives are naturally flying across the sports mediaverse following that performance, there were some unique aspects about how his numbers, and the Miami win, were produced that provide the key starting points in building a Game #3 handicap.

James was good, very good. But perhaps so good that there are parts of the game that may not be recapped properly. One of the most basic tenets of sports handicapping is to properly sort through the conundrum of whether it was “Good Offense or Bad Defense” when points get scored, and that may take us to the heart of the Sunday night result. James was great, the Miami offense was uninspiring, and for a team that allowed 52.9 percent shooting, the Spurs played good defense. That means time to go to work.

If Gregg Popovich was given a tape of every Miami possession that ended with a James shot attempt, but the camera stopped stopped the minute the ball left his hands, Pops would likely have been thrilled with it. James had 22 FG attempts, while only getting to the line for five FT’s, a 4.4:1 ratio far batter than San Antonio could have hoped for – in the regular season it was 1.8:1, and prior to Sunday it had been 1.3:1 in the playoffs. Of the 48 Miami shots James did not take, he only managed three assists, another dream distribution for Popovich.

Consider this stretch – the Spurs led 62-56 with 5:56 remaining in the 3rd quarter, and over a period of 2:18 Miami would have six possessions, with five of them ending with James taking long jumpers, two from beyond the arc. There was an opportunity for the game to break open.

But we all know the result, and the scoreboard was driven by the simple fact that James made the shots. The Heat went on a 13-2 run in which Popovich might have been OK with his defense on all but one of the possessions (one pull-up triple on the break), but that is what can happen when a super player reaches a super level.

Here is the issue in projecting the series ahead – while James is indeed a unique talent (his ability to lock down Tony Parker at crunch time is a major end-game issue that the Spurs must solve), he is not a great shooter. The heat do not run plays to get him open for perimeter jumpers; he tends to take those shots when nothing else became available on a possession. As such Miami did not solve the San Antonio defense – it took a 14-22, including all three triples, from James to only generate a two-point scoreboard margin.

That sequence in the third quarter was a dramatic one, but the Spurs had yet one more opportunity to take control. Leading 85-83 at 6:43, Parker and Tim Duncan went 0-4 at the FT line over a span of nine seconds, and on the ensuing Miami possession James nailed a forced triple, over the out-stretched hands of Kawhi Leonard as the shot clock expired. It had little to do with X’s and O’s basketball, just the matter of San Antonio failing to take advantage of an opportunity, and then James being James. That was Game #2, defined.

Now the venue shifts, and Miami goes to the chalk role at home, with even a few -4.5’s in the marketplace as of mid-day on Monday. The handicapping challenge of evaluating the shift in pricing comes down to weighing the superstar value of James, vs. the fact that the Spurs floor game has been superior. The Heat could only get a two-point win out of a 52.9 percent to 43.9 shooting advantage, which is actually not a good sign, and in terms of quality of shots there is an intriguing comparison to be made. Through two games San Antonio has a small lead in FG’s, 76-74, but a monster one in assists, 56-32. Yes, those final seven minutes from Game #1 are statistically meaningless, and close that assist gap, but even after that adjustment it is still a significant one.

Keep this as a major part of your thinking, in expounding on that theme – the Spurs know who they are. But because the Miami rotations have changed so much during the playoffs, the Heat will not show the same rhythm and chemistry. Prime example - Ray Allen had not had back-to-back games all season of 32:00 or more until the first two of this series. Meanwhile Udonis Haslem has gone from being a starter to an 0:46 sneeze on Sunday. The shots made by James enabled them to overcome that, but through 96 minutes a ratio of 32 assists vs. 27 turnovers is not the kind of chemistry that wins championships.

As for the Total it was a most unique flow on Sunday – how often do we see a 45-41-69-39 distribution by quarters? Outside of that James explosion in the middle of the third the pacing was Under throughout, even though the shooting was again good. The teams are over 50 percent from the field through two games (150-298), including an exceptional 45-99 from 3-point range. But fast break points shrank from 39 in the opener to 22 in Game #2, and as the teams now have a better feel for just what the opposing rotations are going to be, that familiarity may slow things down a bit more, especially off of shorter rest and with the plane ride to Miami included.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat pull even in Finals, now -145 to win series
By ANDREW AVERY


With Sunday's 98-96 victory in Game 2, the Miami Heat pulled even with the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals with one win apiece.


Series prices have swung accordingly with the Heat now -145 faves to win the Larry O'Brien trophy, and the Spurs now +125 dogs.


Game 3 is slated for Tuesday evening, with the Heat opening as 4-point home faves.


http://i58.tinypic.com/166d8a0.jpg

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat know Spurs will be ready in Game 3

MIAMI (AP) - Dwyane Wade thinks there's no one better than the Miami Heat at dealing with the mental challenge of the playoffs. In his eyes, only one other team might compare.

He's talking about the San Antonio Spurs.

That's why Wade believes these NBA Finals are just getting started.

When he looks at the Spurs, he sees qualities his own team has, including an ability to break down a loss and quickly correct things. It's what Miami did before Game 2 of the finals and it's what Wade expects the Spurs to do before the title series resumes with Game 3 in Miami on Tuesday night.

''You never put them away,'' Wade said. ''I think they always believe and it's the same with us. You can't, you won't, put us away because we're always going to believe. That's why this is a perfect, different animal, kind of series. They're the other team like us. They don't lose much and when they do they come back and be better in the next game. So we've got to come out and do the same thing.''

That would explain why on Monday, instead of a day off, the Heat gathered to watch video of Game 2.

By winning in San Antonio to even the finals at 1-1, home-court advantage now belongs to the Heat. But no one in their locker room thinks it's going to get easy now.

''They came out great. They played a great game,'' Spurs guard Tony Parker said after Miami's 98-96 win in Game 2, the 13th straight time the Heat immediately followed a postseason loss with a victory. ''Now it's our turn to go over there and get one. We played pretty well all season long on the road and so we're going to have two great opportunities to try to come up with a win.''

Miami has won a franchise-record 11 straight postseason games at home.

The last team to win a playoff game in Miami was the Spurs, winning Game 1 of last season's finals.

''We are in a tough situation because we've got to go to Miami and we've got to get one,'' Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. ''We don't want to come back here 3-1 down. It's very hard to overcome that. Definitely going to be a great challenge for the team to play in an arena like that and having to win.''

A challenge, sure, but it's one Heat coach Erik Spoelstra knows the Spurs can handle.

''Coming back here there has to be an incredible sense of focus and urgency,'' Spoelstra said Monday. ''They're a veteran, poised, championship-level team that's been through a lot. The crowd won't affect them much.''

Neither team thought it played all that well in the game that it won so far in these finals.

The Spurs turned the ball over too much for their liking in Game 1 - the game that will be remembered for the air conditioning malfunction and cramps inside a steamy building forcing LeBron James to leave in the final minutes. In Game 2, the Heat weren't thrilled with a slow start and how they spent much of the game playing from behind.

When James got rolling in the third quarter, things started swinging Miami's way in Game 2. When he found Chris Bosh for the 3-pointer that put Miami ahead for good with 1:18 left, it was just another example of the four-time MVP setting a teammate up for a big play.

''I'm going to make the right play,'' said James, who signaled to Bosh about what he wanted on that play. ''To have that trust from my teammates, they know when I've got the ball, I'm going to make the right play. Doesn't mean it's going to go in. Doesn't mean it's going to result in a win, but they believe in my ability.''

The pressure, if Miami had not found a way to win in the final moments of Game 2, would have been enormous on the two-time defending champions.

Now, it seems to have shifted to the Spurs.

''It doesn't matter what we've been through before,'' Spurs forward Tim Duncan said. ''We're here now again.''

The last time these teams met in Miami at this time of year, the Heat wound up spraying champagne in their locker room.

It's tempting, Bosh acknowledged, to think that all Miami needs to do for a third straight championship is stay unbeaten at home.

But Bosh won't let himself go there.

''I can only think about Game 3,'' Bosh said. ''We've played well at home this postseason. I think we feel we have an advantage now. We have to make sure that we play well and keep it that way.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs search for answers

San Antonio Spurs (75-27) at Miami Heat (67-32)

Line and Total: Miami -4 (-115) & 198.5

The Spurs head to South Beach for Game 3 on Tuesday knowing that they must beat the Heat on the road at some point in order to have a chance to win the NBA championship.

After leaving the Game 1 loss with a leg cramp, SF LeBron James left his mark in a positive way in Game 2. James scored 35 points with 10 rebounds to lead Miami to a crucial 98-96 road win on Sunday despite San Antonio being a four-point favorite in the game. The Spurs missed four crucial free throws in a row when their lead was 87-85 in the fourth and the game’s momentum took a permanent swing in the Heat's favor.

The series now heads back to Miami with the series tied at one game apiece. The Heat are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS versus the Spurs when playing at American Airlines Arena over the past three seasons. Overall in that time, Miami is 9-5 SU with both teams having won seven games ATS.

San Antonio is 14-3 ATS this season after a game where it made at least 12 three-point shots, and over the past two seasons, the Spurs are 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite.

However, the Heat are 12-4 ATS this season when playing five or less games in 14 days, and are 15-5 ATS in home games as a No. 2 seed in the playoffs over the past three seasons.

The Spurs had their sights set on winning both of their home games and heading to Miami with a 2-0 series lead, but now they desperately need to win a road game just to give themselves a chance in a Game 7 showdown.

PF Tim Duncan (16.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) continues to play extremely well in the post for San Antonio, finishing Game 2 with 18 points and 15 rebounds. San Antonio abandoned Duncan late in the game, so the club should look to get him more touches in Game 3.

PG Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 5.2 APG in playoffs) had 21 points (8-of-15 FG, 3-of-6 threes) and seven assists in 35 minutes of play in Game 2. Parker took an elbow to the rib area late in the contest and never was comfortable after that. The day off should be good for the Spurs' point guard, as he will need to be aggressive early in Game 3 if he is going to help his team pick up a huge win.

SG Manu Ginobili (14.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) has been giving Miami some serious problems in this series with his slashing ability. Ginobili had 19 points (7-of-15 FG) and four assists in just 28 minutes of play in Game 2. The Heat guards are having trouble with his shifty style of play, and San Antonio should continue to feed him the ball and get him some buckets in transition, as his outside shot has been inconsistent this postseason (43% FG, but 38% threes).

The Heat were right there in Game 1 and would’ve had a prime opportunity to steal that game had SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs) stayed healthy. James, however, came back with one of the more memorable performances of his career in Game 2, producing 35 points (14-of-22 FG, 3-of-3 threes), 10 rebounds and two steals in 38 minutes of play. The cramping issues are now behind the forward and his jump shot has looked as good as ever as of late, as James has knocked down 61% FG, including 5-of-6 threes over his past three contests where he's averaging 28.3 PPG.

SG Dwyane Wade (18.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) had 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists in Sunday's win. But the Heat were not getting Wade the ball as much as they could have, and when he did have the ball, he was forcing the issue a little much. The shooting guard had five turnovers in the game and will need to have more of an impact scoring the basketball in Game 3.

PF Chris Bosh (15.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) continued his hot shooting on Sunday, finishing with 18 points (6-of-11 FG, 1-of-2 threes) in 36 minutes. Bosh hit a huge three late in the game from the right wing that would ultimately win Miami the game. He is averaging 21.2 PPG (57% FG, 10-of-20 threes) and 7.2 RPG over the past five games of these playoffs.

PF Rashard Lewis (5.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG in playoffs) continues to make a huge impact offensively for the Heat, as he finished Game 2 with 14 points on 5-of-9 FG (3-of-7 threes). Lewis has now scored in double-figures in four straight contests, averaging 13.8 PPG on 50% FG and 48% threes during this hot streak.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win NBA CHAMPIONSHIP / FINALS TO DATE: 2-1 FOR +1.4 UNITS...

2* GAME: Heat -4.5 (-110: Risking 2.10 units to win 2.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 10TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Tuesday, 6/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Orioles Lights Out With Tillman On Mound Versus Boston: Chris Tillman has absolutely owned the Red Sox lately and he'll get a chance to do it again when his Orioles host their American League East rival Boston Red Sox (7:05 PM EST) Tuesday night. The Birds are 8-1 in Tillman's last nine starts versus the BoSox. Right-hander Brandon Workman gets the ball for the Red Sox. The Orioles are currently -113 favorites.

•Holland Not Ready For Rehab Assignment: After running through around fifteen minutes of fielding drills before Wednesday’s game, Rangers manager Ron Washington said starting pitcher Derek Holland isn’t ready for a rehab assignment yet. While he said he believes he is ready, Holland said he could feel his leg was still stiff through covering first and fielding bunts down both lines. The staff watching Holland through the workout, including Washington, knew he wasn’t ready yet before he went over to talk with them, Holland said.

Holland will be sent to Arizona on Wednesday to throw live batting practice and continue working on the leg strength of his surgically repaired left knee that was injured before the beginning of the season, resulting in the left-handed pitcher missing the entire season to date. He is expected to return from Surprise on June 24. While he said he agrees with the precaution taken, his frustration was evident. “I feel like I can go out and play with it, but the real thing is that is not going to happen,” Holland said. Washington, on the other hand, said there is no need to worry as Holland’s rehab remains on schedule.

•Walker's Absence Opens Door For Pirates' Polanco: Gregory Polanco is finally coming to the major leagues but it is at the expense of one of the Pirates' best players. The 22-year-old outfielder will be called up from Triple-A Indianapolis prior to Tuesday's game against the Chicago Cubs. He will take the roster spot of second baseman Neil Walker, who underwent an emergency appendectomy Monday night after being scratched from the lineup about an hour before the Pirates' 6-2 victory over the Cubs. Polanco is expected to become the regular right fielder, replacing Josh Harrison, who will move to second base in Walker's absence.

The Pirates will be moving on for possibly the next month without Walker, who is hitting .280 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in 61 games. He is leading National League second basemen in homers, RBIs and fielding percentage as he has committed only one error in 237 total chances for a .996 mark. Polanco, 22, has been tearing up the International League all season. In 62 games, he hit .347 with seven home runs, 49 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, a .405 on-base percentage and a .540 slugging percentage. The Pirates had been widely criticized by fans and in the media for not bringing up Polanco sooner, especially with a need in right field. While the Pirates denied it, most people inside the game believe they kept Polanco down in order to make sure he did not accrue enough service time to gain an extra year of salary arbitration rights, which would be costly to the low-budget franchise.

•Cahill Wants To Remain With Diamondbacks: The Arizona Diamondbacks designated right-hander Trevor Cahill for assignment Monday, but it seems that both sides would like the relationship to continue. The D-backs have 10 days to release, outright, trade or option Cahill, but both general manager Kevin Towers and Cahill seemed to indicate that Cahill would be content to accept a minor league assignment if the process goes that far. That could happen if Cahill clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment rather that elect to become a free agent. He would be placed in a minor league starting rotation in that scenario.

Cahill is 1-6 with a 5.66 ERA in his most mystifying season. He was removed from the starting rotation in mid-April after going 0-4 with 9.17 ERA in his first four starts, but he has pitched better out of the bullpen since. Cahill won 10, 18, 12 and 13 games in his first four major league seasons, the first three with Oakland before being acquired by the D-backs before the 2012 season. He was 8-10 in an injury-shortened 2013, missing seven weeks with a hip injury.
__________________________________________________ ______

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 3-2, 2.37 in his last six starts.
-- Minor is 2-2, 1.87 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 6-0, 2.11 in his last seven starts. Fister is 4-0, 2.49 in his last four outings.

-- Happ is 4-1, 3.90 in his last five starts.
-- Kluber is 4-0, 2.55 in his last seven starts.
-- Danks has a 1.19 RA in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 1.77 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz has a 2.25 RA in three road starts.
-- Iwakuma has a 2.79 RA in his four home starts.

-- Wainwright is 2-0, 1.13 in his last three road starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 3.06 in his last three starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Liriano is 1-3, 5.66 in his last four starts. Wood has a 7.32 RA in his last six.
-- Burnett is 0-2, 8.55 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada has a 6.08 RA in his last four starts. Matsuzaka has a 5.23 RA in his first two starts for the Mets.
-- Nicasio is 0-2, 10.80 in his last two starts.

-- Correia is 0-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman has a 12.56 RA in his last four starts. Workman is 0-0, 4.70 in three starts for Boston.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 6.18 in his last five starts.
-- Verlander is 1-3, 7.96 in his last four starts.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 7.36 in his last four starts.

-- Odorizzi is 0-3, 6.16 in his last four starts.
-- Koehler is 1-2, 6.88 in his last three starts. Lewis is 1-2, 7.25 in his last four.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 5.13 in his last four starts.

•Totals
-- Six of Cubs' last eight road games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Dodger road games.
-- Over is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Brewer games.
-- Seven of last nine San Diego games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Washington road games.

-- Six of last seven Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Baltimore home games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Ten of last thirteen White Sox home games stayed under; over is 5-0-1 in last six Detroit games.
-- Eight of last eleven Angel games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-5 in last fourteen Yankees road games.

-- Five of Marlins' last six road games went over total.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Arizona home games stayed under.

•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won five of their last seven games. Pittsburgh won six of last nine at home.
-- Brewers won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Nationals won eight of its last ten games. San Francisco won nine of their last eleven home games.

-- Blue Jays won seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians won nine of their last ten games. Kansas City won five of its last seven games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven home games.
-- Athletics won seven of its last ten games. Los Angeles won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last ten games.

-- Cardinals won five of their last seven road games.
-- Marlins won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Astros won eight of last nine away games. Arizona won five of its last seven games overall.

•Cold Teams
-- Mets lost their last six games; bullpen lost five of the six.
-- Reds are 3-6 in its last nine home games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last nine games. San Diego lost five of last seven.
-- Rockies lost ten of its last 11 games. Atlanta lost four of their last six.

-- Twins lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Red Sox lost six of its last seven games. Baltimore lost three of their last five.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last eleven road games.
-- Yankees lost six of their last eight games.

-- Rays lost 13 of its last 14 games.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last ten games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Pitt-- Five of six Woodring games went over.
-- LA-Cin-- Underdogs won four of last six Reynolds games.
-- Atl-Col-- Seven of eight Conroy games went over.
-- Wsh-SF-- Home side is 25-11 in last 36 Marquez games.

-- Min-Tor-- Over is 10-1-1 in last twelve Barber games.
-- Bos-Balt-- Underdogs won six of last nine Gorman games.
-- Det-Chi-- Six of last nine Diaz games went over total.
-- A's-LA-- Nine of last twelve Davidson games stayed under.

-- Hst-Az-- Six of last eight Drake games went over total.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 27-8 (+20.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9.

•LA ANGELS are 24-6 OVER (+17.3 Units) versus teams outscoring opponent by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 5.7.

•TAMPA BAY is 6-24 (-20.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.7.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-20 (-24.8 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9.

•A.J. BURNETT is 48-17 UNDER (+29.3 Units) in home games versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BURNETT 3.9, OPPONENT 3.4.

•JOSH BECKETT is 7-28 (-24.7 Units) against the run line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BECKETT 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(45-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +31.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -153.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (32-8, +19.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (69-24, +31.5 units).

•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (NY YANKEES) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(43-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +38.4 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +124
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (46.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10, +28.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-29, +31 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season.
(84-43 since 1997.) (66.1%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-105.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 5.1 (Total runs scored = 9.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 71 (56.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-13, +2.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-19, +9.6 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Cleveland at Kansas City

The Indians open up their series tonight in Kansas City and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in Corey Kluber's last 5 starts in Game 1 of a series. Cleveland is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100). Here are all of today's picks.


TUESDAY, JUNE 10
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.973; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 16.362
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165); Under


Game 953-954: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 17.262; Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.792
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over


Game 955-956: Milwaukee at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 17.567; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 15.089
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under


Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 16.391; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.270
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Over


Game 959-960: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.711; Colorado (Nicasio) 17.453
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over


Game 961-962: Washington at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 14.579; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.499
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Under


Game 963-964: Minnesota at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 14.094; Toronto (Happ) 16.797
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-180); Under


Game 965-966: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 16.218; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.693
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over


Game 967-968: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 17.477; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over


Game 969-970: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.950; White Sox (Danks) 14.295
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under


Game 971-972: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 17.299; LA Angels (Skaggs) 15.007
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+100); Over


Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 17.074; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.683
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under


Game 975-976: Houston at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.002; Arizona (Arroyo) 12.108
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over


Game 977-978: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 18.859; Tampa Bay (Ordorizzi) 16.194
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Under


Game 979-980: Miami at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.634; Texas (Lewis) 14.673
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Tulsa

The Liberty travel to Tulsa this afternoon and come into the contest with a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games on Tuesday. New York is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


TUESDAY, JUNE 10
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: New York at Tulsa (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.520; Tulsa 107.797
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 4; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4); Under


Game 653-654: Phoenix at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.928; Washington 111.509
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over


Game 655-656: Seattle at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 107.849; Chicago 111.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 147
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA playoffs

Miami was -24 in 25:31 that Lebron James sat out in first two games; he had 35 points, 10 boards in Game 2 win. Home team won 12 of last 16 series games; Spurs lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last four by 19-3-7-12 points.. Eight of last 11 Miami games went over total; seven of last ten San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs are just 3-5 on road in playoffs, 2-2 vs spread when getting points. Heat is 8-0 SU at home in playoffs, 6-2 vs spread.

Over is 49-37 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-51 in playoffs this season, 11-3 in last 14 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Orioles lights out with Tillman on mound versus BoSox
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

Chris Tillman has absolutely owned the Red Sox lately and he'll get a chance to do it again when his Orioles host their AL East rival Boston Red Sox Tuesday.

The Birds are 8-1 in Tillman's last nine starts versus the BoSox.

Brandon Workman gets the ball for the Sox. The Orioles are currently -113 favorites.



Holland not ready for rehab assignment

ARLINGTON, Texas -- After running through around fifteen minutes of fielding drills before Wednesday’s game, Rangers manager Ron Washington said starting pitcher Derek Holland isn’t ready for a rehab assignment yet.

“He’s not ready for rehab, so he’s got to work,” Washington said. “He’s better, but he’s not ready for competition.”

While he said he believes he is ready, Holland said he could feel his leg was still stiff through covering first and fielding bunts down both lines.

The staff watching Holland through the workout, including Washington, knew he wasn’t ready yet before he went over to talk with them, Holland said.

“I guess it just wasn’t as good,” Holland said. “It was their opinion. I’m going to go by them. They want to make sure everything is right. I do, too. I want it to be a one-time thing. I don’t want this to be a thing that I have to go back on the DL. I want to get it right the first time.”

Holland will be sent to Arizona on Wednesday to throw live batting practice and continue working on the leg strength of his surgically repaired left knee that was injured before the beginning of the season, resulting in the left-handed pitcher missing the entire season to date. He is expected to return from Surprise on June 24.

While he said he agrees with the precaution taken, his frustration was evident.

“I feel like I can go out and play with it, but the real thing is that is not going to happen,” Holland said.

Washington, on the other hand, said there is no need to worry as Holland’s rehab remains on schedule.

“Our projection was after the All-Star break, so no need to be getting excited right now,” Washington said. “It’s better. He’s able to move around, but he’s not ready for competition.”

Also, Engel Beltre (fractured right tibia, 60-day) and Jurickson Profar (torn teres major muscle in right shoulder, 60-day) will leave for Surprise on Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SAN DIEGO at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN DIEGO) with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings
42-26 since 1997. ( 61.8% | 28.5 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MIAMI at TEXAS
MIAMI is 120-76 (+63.1 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit since 1997.
The average score was: MIAMI (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play TUES

Cards -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Kings on Monday and likes the Spurs on Tuesday.

The deficit is 375 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Braves -121

Dodgers -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Spurs +4.5
Dodgers -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

10* Boston Red Sox +107

This game features the 28-35 Boston at the 32-30 Orioles. I really love the Red Sox in this game they will be super motivated in this game as a loss to the Orioles will drop them further back in the A.L. East and time is running out. Brandon Workman has put up solid numbers in 3 starts and will be working hard to try and keep his spot in the rotation. Chris Tillman is 5-2 with a 5.20 ERA ans is lucky to be 5-2. The public is going super heavy on the Orioles around 74% yet this line has moved 7 cents the other way. We will follow the sharps and take the Red Sox here today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

7 Units Braves / Rockies Under 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals -132 over Tampa Bay Rays
(System Record: 39-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 39-31

Hockey Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 24-2: overall 24-18-1, lost last 2 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 115-92-3

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: system 19-1: overall 19-18-3, won last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 97-103-8

Soccer Crusher
Rep of Ireland + Portugal UNDER 2
This match is happening in Friendlies
(System Record: 587-21, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 587-490-85

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Philadelphia Phillies -109 over San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers -102 over Cincy Reds
Colorado Rockies +115 over Atlanta Braves


Hockey
no play


Basketball
San Antonio Spurs + Miami Heat OVER 198

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

10 Units Miami Heat -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

SAN ANTONIO at MIAMI
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record 148-90 since 1997. ( 62.2% | 49.0 units ) 1-6 this year. ( 14.3% | -5.6 units )

SAN ANTONIO at MIAMI
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights 102-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.1% | 47.9 units ) 26-9 this year. ( 74.3% | 7.1 units )

SAN ANTONIO at MIAMI
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season 177-104 since 1997. ( 63.0% | 62.6 units ) 3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Mariners(+105)
The Mariners are 3-0 against the Yankees and Hisashi Iwakuma (4-2, 2.66 ERA) will get the ball for Seattle, who has posted a 1.91 ERA in winning eight of nine.
New York has totaled seven runs while striking out 31 times in losing all three home meetings with Seattle. And they send Vidal Nuno (1-2, 5.33)to the mound, who is winless in his last five

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1* Astros +115
1* Cubs +135
1* Twins +145
1* Marlins +110
1* White Sox +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANTHONY MICHAEL

NBA playoffs!!! Game 3

#705 San Antonio Spurs +4.5 (9:05 edt)
The Spurs are awesome on the road and they are very accustomed to playing big time playoff games on the road. Look for a close game that has the Spurs getting the cover if not the outright win here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Play
golazoprediction
WORLD: Friendly International
Portugal - Ireland
BET: Over 2 AH
Odd: 1,95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Play

vip-picks


BONUS


Daugava Daugavpils - Skonto FC Riga
Tip: Daugava Daugavpils +0.5, 1
Odds: 1,95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

GOW 3* RANGERS

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Hondo

Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch hopes to coast with that Bumgarner — 10 units on the Giants to pound Mister Fister.

Also, 10 on Nicasio to watch over Hondo’s investment on the Rockies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, June 10

SAN ANTONIO (75 - 27) at MIAMI (67 - 32) - 6/10/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 55-47 ATS (+3.3 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 132-90 ATS (+33.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 66-38 ATS (+24.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 285-227 ATS (+35.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 91-70 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 309-258 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, June 10

NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Trends

San Antonio Spurs
44-25 ATS in non-conference games
13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
14-4 ATS off a home loss
28-16 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread

Miami Heat
40-26 ATS after a non-conference game
12-4 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days
15-5 ATS at home as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
8-18 ATS in home games off a road win
14-26 ATS at home coming off a road game

NBA Finals Game 3 Over/Under Trends

San Antonio Spurs - Over
56-46 OVER in all games this season
28-15 OVER in road games in non-conference games
19-7 OVER after back to back home games
28-18 OVER coming off an ATS loss

Miami Heat - Over
55-43 OVER in all games
29-20 OVER in all home games
51-37 OVER as a favorite
29-20 OVER as a home favorite
12-4 OVER as a #2 seed in the playoffs
16-5 OVER at home after a close win by 6 points or less

San Antonio Spurs - Under
63-41 UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less
90-59 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite

Miami Heat - Under
4-0 Under after back to back games as an underdog

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, June 10

Trend Report

9:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MIAMI
San Antonio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland Insider

MLB
5.5* Cardinals/Rays over 7
2* Twins/Blue Jays over 9.5
1* Tigers/White Sox under 8
1* Cubs/Pirates under 7.5
1* Braves/Rockies over 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TAPIN SPORTS

2* Brewers at -119

They are back into full swing and the Mets even thu have had a few shinny spots cant compete with the Brewers especially their batting line up.

I look for todays game to win at least by 2-3 runs maybe more. If you want to make a small wager on the -1 1/2 run line I wouldn’t oppose that either. Brewers are just too strong in this spot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 9.5 – Twins/Blue Jays
100* Rangers -130
50* Cardinals -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Blue Jays are 10-0 since July 9, 2008 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a walk off win for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Mike Leake starts the Reds are 11-0 since April 21, 2011 as a favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters at home for a net profit of $1,100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Rays are 0-9 (+$975) in database history if they have five or fewer hits in each of the past three games.

CHOICE TREND:

The Giants are 11-0 since August 24, 2013 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1,235.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Justin Verlander starts the Tigers are 15-1 since June 17, 2007 as a favorite after walking at least 4 at home for a net profit of $1390.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

power plays wins

ATLANTA BRAVES -120

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Umpire Streakers

6/10/14 Under Umpire Streakers

OAK/LAA UN 8.5 -105 Davidson L13gm 10un/3ov/2p 72.7%

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INDIAN COWBOY MLB

3-Unit Play. #959. Take Atlanta -125 over Colorado (Tuesday @ 8:40pm est) ...

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StatFox Super Situations

PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game 208-125 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 70.5 units ) 2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )

PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) excellent free throw shooting team - making >=80% of their free throws, on Tuesday nights 26-5 since 1997. ( 83.9% | 0.0 units )

SEATTLE at CHICAGO
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good free throw shooting team - making >=76% of their free throws, good shooting team - shooting >=44% on the season 81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 37.0 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA 6/10

3-Unit Play. #655. Take Under 146.5 Seattle vs. Chicago (Tuesday @ 8:05pm est)

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Tampasports

cincinnati ML best bet
st louis ML
milwaukee ML

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LT LOCK

Kansas City Royals +100

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Las Vegas Pipeline

20* Cardinals

15* Heat

10* Blue Jays

10* Tex. Rangers

[golden contender]

Tuesday the lead play is the 6* NBA Game 3 finals winner that has 6 big systems, one is perfect and several historical angles from the NBA Playoff database. NBA is on fire right now and has cashed over 73% on top plays the last 4 seasons including the first 2 in this series. There are also 2 MLB System Plays going. Free MLB Play below


On Tuesday the free MLB system play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Game 952 at 7:05 eastern. The Pirates for a nice system here that has won 10 of the last 12 times. We are playing on home favorites like the Pirates with a total that is 8 or less if they are a home favorites coming off a home favored win by 2 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and they had 5 or more run and 10 or more hits. If the opponent, which is Chicago scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits. The Cubs lost here last night and are now 2-9 in Pittsburgh of late. The Pirates are scoring 5.6 runs the past week and have a nice pitching edge with Liriano who is 5-2 vs the Cubs with a 2.36 era. He will square off against T. Wood for Chicago who is sporting a dismal 8.04 road era this season. Look for the Pirates to take another from the Cubs here tonight. On Tuesday the top play is in the NBA Finals and our selection has 6 different systems and several powerful angles from the NBA playoff historical database. NBA Top plays are hitting nearly 75% in the Playoffs the last 4 years. We also have 2 Solid MLB League wide systems going. Message to Jump on and cash out with the Nations most Powerful data. For the free play take the Pittsburgh Pirates. GC

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Allen Eastman
MLB
4* St Louis -130
3* Atlanta -135

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 6/10

4-unit Play Take #953 San Diego Padres (-105) over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST)


3-unit Play Take #965 Boston Red Sox (+100) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST)

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GOODFELLA

2* TEXAS RANGERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

10* Colorado

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Jack Jones

25* Finals GOY San Antonio +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Toronto Over 9.5

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost on Monday in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals with the Rangers -$120/Kings.

"Mr Chalk" won on Monday in MLB in the National League with the Pirates -$145/Cubs.

For Tuesday in the NBA Finals E&B like the Heat -2/Spurs 1st Half.

For Tuesday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Giants -$138/Nationals.

Ben lee is 1-1 -$10 for week thirty three 143-164-5 -$2814 through

"Mr Chalk" is 29-27 -$596 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost on Monday in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals with the Rangers -$120/Kings.

"Mr Chalk" won on Monday in MLB in the National League with the Pirates -$145/Cubs.

For Tuesday in the NBA Finals E&B like the Heat -2/Spurs 1st Half.

For Tuesday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Giants -$138/Nationals.

Ben lee is 1-1 -$10 for week thirty three 143-164-5 -$2814 through

"Mr Chalk" is 29-27 -$596 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

Minnesota Twins (Correia) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120) 7:05 ET

5* Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120)

We lost this matchup in the 9th inning by a ½ run last night. But we are back on it again as the Jays continue on a 22-6 run including 10-2 in this series at this site. The Twins, as projected, are on a 6-12 slide. Correia isn’t the answer. The Twins are 3-9 in Correia starts. He has a 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .321 BAA and .854 OPS. In his last 6 starts, Correia is 1-4 with a .343 BAA. 4 starts against Toronto have resulted in a 6.48 ERA. Toronto has won 5/7 half starts including 4-1 recently where he has worked 32 innings allowing just 14 runs. Run lie players take note: 24/33 Minnesota Ls have come by 2 or more runs while 33/39 Toronto Ws have come by 2 or more runs including 16/20 on this field.

Seattle is presently -137 faves with a total of 7.

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Bookieshunter

1* Heat -4

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Primetime Insiders

3* Plays

San Diego and Philadelphia Under 7.5

Cleveland -105

2* Plays

San Diego -105

Detroit and Chicago Over 8.5

1* Plays

Milwaukee -120

Houston and Arizona Under 9

Oakland -116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -130

(Bumgarner/Fister)
I don’t think there is a pitcher as hot right now as Bumgarner. This guy is a strike out machine. Washington has not had too much work against left handers this year however they have hit lefties pretty well when they have faced them. The problem tonight is none have been as solid as the pitcher they will face tonight. I like the Giants at home. Take San Francisco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR STEVENS

MLB
(975) Houston +125

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King Creole:

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

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Prediction Machine

As expected no normal play in the NBA

Half bet on the over

Final score: Mia 103 SA 98

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HARRY BONDI FREE PLAY

MLB

WASHINGTON (+125) over San Francisco
10:15 p.m. ET

The Nats are heating up, winning eight of their last 10, SF starter Madison Bumgarner has been outstanding in his last three starts, but Washington averages 4.8 runs per game against lefties and, despite a “hot” May, the left-hander has posted a 4.94 ERA at home this season. Last month, we wrote right here on the free pick page that we thought Doug Fister would have a profitable season for the Nats and he has produced, posting a 3-0 record with an ERA under 1.00 in his last three starts and overall Washington has won nine of his 13 starts (+4.8 units). Take the dog.

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Miami Heat -4½ (buy half point to -4) over the San Antonio Spurs (Spread Bet) (NBA Basketball) - Game Starts at 9:00 PM EST

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Diamond Dog Sports MLB
06/10
Sides

#952 Pirates RL -1.5 +135 Wood/Liriano 3*

#956 Mets +110 Estrada/Matsuzaka 4*

Totals

#955/956 Over mets 7.5 +100 Estrada/matsuzaka 2*

#967/968 Over Royals 7.5 +110 Kluber/vargas 2.5*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo World Cup Soccer 2014



BRA win cup [+310]
BRA reach final [+160]

ARG win cup [+440]
ARG reach final [+220]
ARG reach semi-final [-110]

GER win cup [+680]
GER reach final [+300]
GER reach semi-final [+115]

ESP reach quarter-final [-155]

ITA reach quarter-final [+125]
ITA reach semi-final [+450]

FRA reach quarter-final [+105]
FRA reach semi-final [+430]

BEL eliminate in quarter-finals [+310]

Group A forecast: BRA & CRO [+135]
Group A forecast: BRA & MEX [+180]

ESP win Group B [-150]
CHI qualify Group B [-110]

IVO win Group C [+350]
JAP win Group C [+425]
GRE win Group C [+740]

ITA qualify Group D [-240]
ENG qualify Group D [-160]

FRA win Group E [-125]
SWI win Group E [+280]

GER win Group G [-150]

ALG qualify Group H [+460]

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Trace adams

1500* raise the bar
Spurs/Heat over 207 1/2

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA

#705 Spurs +4.5 -110 (1*)

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Fezzik

WNBA

SEA/CHIC Under 146.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Black
Spurs +5

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY

Cleveland -110 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Indians are on fire and that’s never a bad time to step in. Cleveland has won three in a row and nine of 10, which was capped off by last night’s 17-7 win in Texas. Corey Kluber has turned into a top-tier pitcher. His skills vs. RH bats have been electric with 10.2 K’s/9 Dom, 1.4 BB/9 and a 50% groundball rate. It doesn’t stop there either. Kluber also owns elite skills against lefties with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Overall, Kluber has struck out 99 batters in 86 innings with a 3.23 ERA. What’s even more amazing is that he has an unlucky 35% hit rate and once that comes down, his ERA will be closer to his xERA of 2.92. Kluber is the straight goods pitching for a very hot team.

Jason Vargas’ consistency grade and xERA show his steadiness. Sure, some things are up (overall command) and some are down (dominant start%, notably), but it all comes out in the wash. Vargas lost time last year to a blood clot but otherwise he's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings pitched. This year he owns a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after 85 innings but that ERA is a complete mirage due to his unsustainable 84% strand rate. Vargas’ has a weak groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% and over his last five starts his WHIP is 1.42. There’s a correction coming in his ERA and the Indians are the right team to correct it.


San Diego vs PHILADELPHIA

San Diego -101 over PHILADELPHIA

(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Philadelphia has one win in its last nine games and they’ve lost four of the past six times that A.J. Burnett has started. You may recall that Burnett was on the verge of retiring before this season but the Phillies gave him 14 million reasons not to. Psychologically, Burnett may have already retired. He’s surrendered 26 hits and 19 earned runs in his last three starts covering 20 innings. Over his last five starts he has a BB/K split of 20/28 in 30 innings, which has led to a WHIP of 1.87. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swing and miss % has declined from 11% to 7%. The problem has been his knuckle-curve. It's a pitch that generated a high near-20% swing and miss rate in each of the last three seasons but this year that pitch has dipped to 11%. Burnett’s xERA is 6.16 over his last three starts and he’s allowed three runs or more in six straight.

Ian Kennedy is such a better option than Burnett. Kennedy has thrown a **pure quality start in each of his last four starts. Three of those four have come at Petco Park but he is succeeding even more on the road this season. In five road starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Kennedy is enjoying a huge resurgence, both on the surface (3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and beneath it (3.10 xERA) and he hasn't been feasting just on RH bats. His skills actually have been better against LH bats with outstanding control, 11.8K’s/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Kennedy figures to thrive against a Phillies team that struggles to hit right-handed pitching, as they have a .233 BA and .655 OPS versus them. At a cheap price, we get the much better pitcher, the better bullpen and the team in better form.

**We mention “pure quality start” often so here is a refresher course on our theory:

The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation. In pure quality start, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start, he gets a 0 score no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

The nice thing about pure quality start is it allows us to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

In other words, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and allows 7 runs on seven hits, strikes out eight, walks none and gives up one jack, that’s a PURE QUALITY START or a PQS score of 4 out of 5.

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by what the rest of the team does.


Minnesota @ TORONTO

TORONTO -1½ +121 over Minnesota

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

We keep fading Kevin Correia and we keep getting paid off so we’re not about to put the brakes on that just yet. Correia has a job for one reason and one reason only; he’s being paid a ridiculous 5.5M this season and the Twinkies will let him rot out there at that hefty price rather than demote him to the pen. What chance does Correia have at this park against the Blue Jays? It could get ugly. Correia has a mere 37 K’s in 66.1 innings. Because he rarely misses a bat, he’s allowed an incredible 89 hits in those 66.1 innings for a BAA of .321. Incidentally, Jose Bautista is 6 for 9 lifetime (.669) v Correia with two jacks, Jose Reyes is 10 for 28 (.357), Brett Lawrie is 3 for 3 and Edwin Encarnacion is 6-24 with 2 jacks. Correia’s low 4% swing and miss rate combined with his fly-ball rate of 41% makes him batting practice out there.

J.A. Happ has been criticized at every level at every place he’s ever played. He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers but what he does do is win games. In seven games started, Happ is 5-2. He’s struck out 29 batters over his past 34 innings and he has a very good history against current Twins’ batters (oppBA of .229) albeit in a small sample size (35 career AB’s). Happ’s dominant start/disaster start splits nicely summarize the feast-or-famine nature of his performances but this one really isn’t about backing Happ as much as it is in fading Correia. Jays should score six or more for fun and if the Twinkies keep pace, good luck to them.

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Wunderdog Sports

Braves @ Rockies

FREE Pick: Under 10

The Atlanta Braves are not the best offensive team in the league, but one thing they typically get is a well-pitched game. And the back of their bullpen is rock solid, and rarely fails to get the job done. This team typically plays games that are low scoring, and through 62 games this season they have seen just 13 of them produce 10 runs or more or just 21%. Colorado was looking forward to this long homestand, as they typically swing the bats well at home. But, right now they are slumping offensively, scoring just 2 runs or fewer in four of the seven games on this homestand. The Rockies' bats are further inhibited vs. a winning team where they have played six straight to the UNDER. This one comes up shy of the total.

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NonStopSportsPicks


2* Heat - 4 (buy 1/2)

I don't think this # gets to -4, so I'm suggesting we pay the $ to buy 1/2. Too much emotion for the Heat to lose this game, and LeBron now has a vendetta. Look at what he did last game. Add to that the fact that Bosh is playing out of his goard, Wade WILL have a big game tonight, and Ray Allen ALWAYS strokes at home. Too much going for the Heat tonight & they win tonight and I am personally hoping they do so we can hop on the Spurs for the Series at +200. We're going to play sides as well as series bets. For those of you who have been with me all along, you know we just played the Heat + 200 for the series before the last game, and that we are looking for the Spurs to be down 2-1 in order to get +200 on them. This is a series that is going to be a great one, and really either team CAN win the series. So we'll just keep playing back and forth +200 series prices and then play sides in individual games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gordon24

$300 Play Detriot Tigers -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DHayes2

3* Red

1* Tigers

1* Spurs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

mr parlay king

Miami -3.5

Red sox under
Dodger Ml

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Stevens

St Louis Cardinals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

Washington Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Burns' Situational R.L. ANNIHILATOR!

New York Mets +1.5 Runs -150

Under sf 6.5

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Kelso

50 Toronto Blue Jays

10 San Antonio Spurs

10 Under Miami Heat /San Antonio Spurs

5 parlay

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Philly Godfather

Reds o7.5 -104

Reds -110 ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FYI

det/cws postponed

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RICH SPORTS

NBA

4* 706 Heat – Team Total – OVER 100 -125

4* 706 Heat – OVER 196 -120

3* 706 Heat -4 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS RUNNER

NFAC MLB Move

958 REDS -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger

Under 4 Runs 1st 5 KC Royals Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie sports

500
under 198
anahiem over 8.5
detriot under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

960 Colorado +120 $1000
953 San Diego -110 $1000
958 Cincinnati -125 $1000
957 Over 7 1/2 (-125) Lad-Cin $1000
753 Under 153 Pho-wash (wnba) $1000
1706 Under 98 sas-mia (1st half) $1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raymond Dunavant

SDG Padres -115

Cin Reds -125

KC Royals +102

TB Rays +120

Over 7 NYY / SEA +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

75 DIME
MONEY MOVE
#3 IN A ROW
Miami over San Antonio

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Machine

Blue jays F5
Blue Jays -1
Brewers TT over 4
A's F5
A's full game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

Texas Rangers -150

Colorado +120

Spurs team total U 97

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

*HOT SIDE* Burns' 10* Game 3 MAIN EVENT! (Perfect In Finals!)

San Antonio Spurs

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BookieMonstir

5 units Spurs +5
3 units under 198

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports investors
Spurs +4.5 1x


Spurs/ Heat under 197 1x