6-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns 10* Main Event


Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

No Limit Sports

World Cup Soccer

2* Draw (Ivory Coast vs Japan) +215

1* Colombia/Greece Over 2 (+104)

1* Costa Rica +1 (+104)

1* Draw (England vs Italy) +200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup Game of the Day: England vs. Italy

England vs. Italy (-108, +101, DRAW +207)

If the English soccer team hopes to end a 48-year World Cup title drought, it will need to be sharp right from the get-go as it faces off against Italy on Saturday in the tournament opener for both teams. England stumbled early in qualifying but pulled out victories over Montenegro and Poland to ease fans' concerns heading into the World Cup. The English side was pummelled 4-1 by Germany in the round of sixteen at the previous tournament.

Up first in Brazil is a sensational Italy side that will be seeking its fifth World Cup championship. The Italians have qualified for the tournament every four years since 1962, and had absolutely no trouble this time around with an undefeated showing in the qualifying round. Italy would love nothing more than to erase the memory of its dismal showing in 2010, when it was sent home early after drawing Paraguay and New Zealand and losing to Slovakia.

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN

WORLD RANKINGS: England: No. 10; Italy: No. 9

INJURY REPORT: England: F Danny Walbeck is dealing with a thigh injury and is considered questionable for the match; F Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain injured his knee in Wednesday's friendly with Ecuador and is questionable for Saturday. Italy: D Mattia De Sciglio has a strained thigh and will miss the game against England; MF Riccardo Montolivo suffered a broken leg against Ireland earlier this month and will miss the tournament.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "England come into this game as 2/1 underdogs against the Azzurri with the last two meetings between the sides ending in a draw, We expect a conservative approach from both teams tomorrow, the Tropical heat in Manaus will also play a key role." - Covers Experts' Footy Tipster

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Always one of the favorites to win the World Cup at (+2,000) and (+160) to win Group D, Italy opens the tournament against a difficult opponent in England. We have seen solid two-way action leading up to this game and 98 percent of the action on the Over on the 1.5-goal total." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT ENGLAND: Roy Hodgson's club faces unusually low expectations as veterans move out and a host of young players take over. With an eye toward future tournaments, the English hope their youthful core - led by Raheem Stirling and Daniel Sturrige of Liverpool and Ross Barkley of Everton - will gain some valuable experience against one of the toughest groups in the tournament. England will be looking to exact revenge after being knocked out of Euro 2012 by the Italians, though it did prevail 2-1 in a friendly back in August 2012.

ABOUT ITALY: One of the most experienced teams in the tournament, the Azzurri won't be intimidated by the grand international stage. Superstars Mario Balotelli, Andreqa Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon highlight a veteran squad that features several high-level club team pairings - creating a comfort level that should give Italy a decided advantage over other rosters. The Italians have yet to win in 2014, dropping a 1-0 decision to world No. 1 Spain before settling for draws with Ireland in May and Luxembourg earlier this month.

TRENDS:

* Italy and England last faced off at a World Cup in 1990, with the Italians prevailing 2-1 in the third-place game.
* The Italians own a slim 9-8-7 edge in the all-time series.
* The average age of the English side is 26, the lowest such total since 1958.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup: England vs Italy Saturday June 14,2014

Overview

The seventh match of the FIFA World Cup 2014 is going to be held between England and Italy. Already considered to the "group of death," Group D has these two giants who are former world champions. This is one of the most awaited matches in the group stage. View Full Image


REUTERS/Alessandro Garofalo
Italy's national soccer player Mario Balotelli (L) and his coach Cesare Prandelli look on during a training session ahead of the 2014 World Cup at the Portobello training center in Mangaratiba June 11, 2014.

Related Articles
FIFA World Cup 2014 Predictions: Match #1 Brazil vs. Croatia
FIFA World Cup 2014 Predictions: Match #2 Mexico vs. Cameroon
FIFA World Cup 2014 Predictions: Match #3 Spain vs. Netherlands

Teams

England: England it qualified for the World Cup 2014 without suffering a single defeat. While it maintained the no-loss record in the pre-world cup friendlies as well, it failed to secure victory against Ecuador (2-2) and a relatively much weaker team like Honduras (0-0). It is uncertain if striker Danny Welbeck will play this match as he suffered a thigh injury just before the crunch match. Wayne Rooney will score in this match.

Italy: Italy finished only second at the previous occasion of the UEFA European Championship. However, it failed to win against Republic of Ireland (0-0) and Luxembourg (1-1) in the pre-world cup friendlies. Although this version of Italy is far from the best it can offer, it has some players who can be lethal for the opposition. Mario Balotelli will be a key factor, so will Andrea Pirlo.

Head to Head

These two arch-rivals played against each other 24 times before. England won 8, Italy 9 and 7 matches ended in a draw. There were 57 goals scored. England scores 30 of them and Italy 27. The record shows the high scoring capabilities of these two teams against each other.

Key Players

England: Wayne Rooney, Jack Wilshere & Daniel Sturridge

Italy: Mario Balotelli, Giuseppe Rossi & Andrea Pirlo

Date, Time & Venue

Brazil's time zone is UTC/GMT -3. The match starts at 6 pm (local time) on June 14, which means it is 8 am on June 15 in New South Wales, Australia. The match will be held at Arena Amazonia in Manaus.

Prediction

This game may well be one of the most violent matches in the tournament. With both teams having several players famous for their volatile temperament, expect a lot of booking. While it is extremely difficult to separate the two, it is Mario Balotelli who will make all the difference. Predicting a 3-2 result for the crucial match, I put Italy inches forward in the game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Greece +440 over Columbia

An exciting showdown between the #8 ranked Colombians and 12th ranked Greece. Colombia came to the FIFA World Cup by way of exceptional play in their CONMEBOL qualification leg. Los Cafeteros have been able to force draws with Argentina and defeat Uruguay and Ecuador. Most recently, in an international friendly, the Colombians were able to procure an impressive 2-0 victory over highly touted Belgium. It is clearly indicative that Colombia can contend against top flight squads but they are overpriced here against this outstanding defensive opponent.

What is shocking is the disparity between Colombia and Greece by the oddsmakers. This is rather overwhelming considering Greece comes from the pedigree of UEFA qualification, accumulating twenty-five points on their way to qualification. Greece attained a berth to the 2014 World Cup by virtue of a play-off with Romania, where Greece emerged victorious in the aggregate. The thorn in the Greek side was an underrated Bosnia and Herzegovnia club. The Greeks allowed just four goals in their 10 group-stage games, three of which came in a single match against group winner, Bosnia. In typical Greek style, they won six qualifiers 1-0. Expect the Greeks to be as stingy as ever and give them a legit shot of pulling this upset.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANTHONY MICHAEL

#960 St. Louis Cardinals with Miller moneyline +110 (7:15 edt)

Strasburg has been pitching well recently but he is in a bad spot here since the Cardinals have gone 6-2 at home against the Nationals and they are excellent on Saturday games. The Cards are 7-2 over the past few years as a small home underdog as well. Washington is terrible on Saturday and Miller goes for St. Louis who has been outstanding against Washington in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HONDO

Hondo followed up his three-way wipeout Thursday with a Friday night double-flusher with the Indians and Nationals that sent the deficit skyrocketing to 1,345 kubeks.

Saturday night: Mr. Aitch will try to overcome his World Cup fever and bring home a winner with the Yankees — 10 units on Kuroda to do the Hiroki-pokey in Oakland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider


England vs. Italy


England face Italy in what is surely the game of the day in Group D of the World Cup on Saturday. These two sides have five World Cups between them and have two of the world’s most famous and history national leagues. However neither national team is among the front-runners to win the World Cup, with England at 28/1 and Italy quoted at 20/1, both with Sportsbook.ag.


This group, with Uruguay and Costa Rica the other two teams represented, looks very likely to be a ‘two from three’ scenario, with few expecting Costa Rica to challenge the ‘big three’. This game will be played in the steamy heat of Manaus, albeit at nighttime when the heat will be less oppressive. The pitch does not look the best, and this could have an effect, particularly on Italy who are more comfortable on the ball than England.


Both teams have had dodgy pre-tournament qualifiers, with Italy’s 1-1 draw with Luxembourg particularly embarrassing, but it is dubious how important these matches are, and I would not advise paying too much attention to them. The World Cup is about who can perform on the big stage, and warm-up matches where players’ main concern is avoiding injury are certainly not that big stage.


Bookmakers have this down as a real low-scorer. However in the four games so far, we have seen an incredible 15 goals - the traditional slow start to the tournament has not happened at all with every team going for it. What a breath of fresh air. Italy are the slight favourites at 147/100, with England at 9/5 and the draw as short as 197/100.


It’s very short indeed, but I fancy the draw here. The two sides played out a 0-0 in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012 (Italy went through on penalties), and there seems to be a lack of real magic in the final third from either team, particularly if Mario Balotelli has one of his off-days. In the end, this group may come down to who beats Costa Rica by the most goals, and a draw would be a decent result for both sides. Under 1.5 goals is as short as 13/10, illustrating how cagey the match is expected to be.


In the goalscorer markets, Mario Balotelli is at 6/1, but the leader in the market is Andrea Pirlo. Although he does take set-pieces and penalties, he is unlikely to threaten much from open play and this price seems based more on reputation that facts.


For England, Daniel Sturridge leads the line and is a 7/1 shot, but his finishing was poor in the warm-up games, despite a clinical season at Liverpool. Wayne Rooney is a continual underperformer at major tournaments and should be avoided at 9/1.


Top Bet: Draw at 197/100


Uruguay vs. Costa Rica


The other game in this group sees Uruguay, the winners the last time Brazil hosted the World Cup, in 1950, face group outsiders Costa Rica. Uruguay will see this game as a great chance to take the initiative in this group with both or one of their main rivals set to slip up. Three years ago, they were undoubtedly South America’s best team after they won the 2011 Copa America, but since then it has gone downhill for them and they needed a play-off victory against Jordan to secure a place in Brazil.


They are as short as 19/50 to win this game. Costa Rica are not the worst side at the tournament, but they stand very little chance of winning any of their games, and their main aim will be to frustrate. A draw is at 7/2 with a Costa Rica win an 11/2 chance.


The two bets I like here are a 2-0 Uruguay win - they rarely thrash teams but have great tournament know-how and will put in a professional performance. This is 9/2. The other one is for Joel Campbell, Costa Rica’s lightning-quick forward, to score. The Arsenal loanee is Costa Rica’s star player and has the quality to get in behind a slow Uruguay defence. If anyone will score for Costa Rica, it will be him. At 4/1 it’s worth a punt.


Top Bets: Uruguay to win 2-0 at 9/2, Joel Campbell to score anytime at 4/1


Greece vs. Colombia


The first game of the day sees Colombia take on Greece at the Estadio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. Colombia are the South American equivalent of Belgium - a team that hasn’t qualified for the World Cup for a long time, but has suddenly found themselves blessed with a golden generation of players, particularly in attacking positions. Greece, meanwhile, will be what they always are: stubborn, defensive, and able to cause a shock.


Colombia are the big 71/100 favourites, but I think the 13/5 draw makes great appeal. Greece only conceded four goals in ten matches of qualifying, and Colombia’s ability to stick the ball in the back of the net will be greatly diminished with Falcao’s injury, even though it means Colombia will play five in midfield which suits their players better.


Greece are devoid of any real creativity, but in Kostas Manolas and (breathe in) Sokratis Papastathopoulos they have two fine centre-backs. They will rely on Colombia committing too many men forward and breaking into space. Over 2.5 goals is 8/5, with the under option quoted at 1/2.


Top Bet: Draw at 13/5


Japan vs. Ivory Coast


The last game of the day sees Ivory Coast and Japan meet in Recife at the Arena Pernambuco. Both teams have been among the best in their continent for several years now. Japan have one of the most underrated midfields in the World Cup, with Shinji Kagawa, Yasuhito Endo and Keisuke Honda all capable of dominating the midfield. In Shinji Okazaki the Japanese have finally found a regular goalscorer.


This is the last chance for the Ivory Coast team of Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré to really make a splash at the World Cup after group stage exits in 2006 and 2010. However their team is a collection of individuals with little cohesion between the players, while the defence is old and creaking. While Yaya Touré had a great season at club level, for the national team he is often played out of position


The bookies have got the prices a bit wrong here, for me. I’m all over Japan at 7/4 - they have a great team ethic to go with their individual quality, and I think they could be one of the real surprise packages in Brazil. Ivory Coast are far too short to touch at 29/20 with the draw at 53/25.


Top Bet: Japan at 7/4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Uruguay v Costa Rica: World Cup 2014 match preview

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Uruguay v Costa Rica
Estadio Castelao, Fortaleza
Kick-off: 20.00 BST.
TV: ITV.

Uruguay (Possible, 4-4-2): Muslera; Pereira, Lugano, Godin, Caceres; Rios, Lodeiro, Stuani, Rodriguez; Forlan, Cavani.
Test: Suárez (knee).

Costa Rica (Possible, 5-4-1): Navas; Gamboa, Umana, Gonzalez, Acosta, Diaz; Bolanos, Borges, Tejeda; Campbell, Ruiz.

Referee: Felix Brych (Germany).


Betting: Uruguay 4-9, Costa Rica 15-2, Draw 3-1.

Team News
The chances of Liverpool’s Footballer of the Year Luis Suárez starting for Uruguay against Costa Rica are slim, so Diego Forlan – provided he has recovered from a stomach upset – and Edison Cavani are likely to start in attack.

Costa Rica will include Arsenal striker Joel Campbell as the spearhead to their attack, though few Gunners’ fans know much about him as work permit problems mean he has been plying his trade most recently with Olympiakos, in Greece.

Match Notes
If Uruguay require inspiration, they can turn to the history books: this will be Uruguay's first World Cup match on Brazilian soil since their famous 2-1 victory over the hosts in the final of the 1950 tournament.

Stat of the game: Costa Rica have never beaten Uruguay in eight attempts in all competitions.

Stat of the game: In eight previous meetings, Costa Rica have never won, losing six and drawing two.

John Ley's prediction: Uruguay 2 Costa Rica 1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colombia v Greece: World Cup 2014 match preview

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Colombia v Greece
Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte
Kick-off: 17.00 BST.
TV: BBC.

Colombia (Possible, 4-4-2): Ospina; Zuniga, Yepes, Zapata, Armero; Cuadrado, Aguilar, Rodriguez, Sanchez; Gutierez, Martinez.

Greece (Possible, 4-4-2): Karnezis; Torosidis, Papasthathopoulos, Manolas, Holebas; Salpingidis, Katsouranis, Maniatis, Kone; Samaras, Mitroglou.

Referee: Mark Geiger (USA).


Betting: Colombia 8-11, Greece 9-2, Draw 9-4.

Team News
Colombia are sure to miss striker Radamel Falcao, whose knee injury suffered in January, ruled him out of contention for a place in the squad.

In the absence of Falcao, Teofilo Gutierrez, who plays for River Plate in Argentina, is expected to carry his team's goal-scoring burden against the Greeks.

Greece should start with Kostas Mitroglou, whose £12 million move to Fulham has so far been little short of a nightmare.

But the player called 'Pistolero' by his adoring Greek fans has eight international goals and has a knack of scoring at the right time.

Match Notes
Colombia are ranked eighth in the world at present and are on familiar territory as well, so they will be confident of a good start.

Despite Falcao’s absence they have sufficient resources to overcome a Greek side that reached the quarter-finals at Euro 2012 but had to qualify for the finals via the Play-offs and a 4-2 aggregate victory over Romania.

Stat of the game: Greece have won just one out of six games in two previous World Cup finals appearances. That was against Nigeria in South Africa four years ago.

John Ley's prediction: Colombia 2 Greece 0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access


Phillies -120
Brewers -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

TBay/Houston under 8

Dodgers/Dbacks over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports


Free Play Sat TampaBay -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB PicksWashington at St. LouisThe Cardinals continue their series tonight against Washington and come into the contest with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games as a home underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110). Here are all of today's picks.


SATURDAY, JUNE 14
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 13.569; Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under


Game 953-954: Colorado at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bergman) 15.330; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.428
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Over


Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.068; Miami (Wolf) 15.718
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-110); Under


Game 957-958: San Diego at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hahn) 15.469; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.553
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.003; St. Louis (Miller) 16.213
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Over


Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.094; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.119
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under


Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 16.512; LA Dodgers (Haren) 14.225
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over


Game 965-966: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 15.067; White Sox (Noesi) 16.646
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under


Game 967-968: Cleveland at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 16.688; Boston (Peavy) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over


Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 17.623; Baltimore (Norris) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under


Game 971-972: Minnesota at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 17.312; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over


Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.103; Houston (Cosart) 13.641
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under


Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.727; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.682
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+150); Over


Game 977-978: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 14.620; Seattle (Ramirez) 15.951
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under


Game 979-980: LA Angels at Atlanta (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 17.014; Atlanta (Floyd) 15.834
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Against the Number

World Cup

Ivory Coast +160
Greece Vs Colombia Under 2 (-114)
Costa Rica Vs Uruguay Over 2.5 (+130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at San Antonio

The Sparks head to San Antonio tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games versus the Stars. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


SATURDAY, JUNE 14
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Los Angeles at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 118.361; San Antonio 113.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -155 over Colorado Rockies
(System Record: 42-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 42-32

Hockey Crusher
New York Rangers +146 over LA Kings - pending
no play
(Playoff Record: system 25-2: overall 25-18-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 116-92-3

Basketball Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 20-1: overall 20-19-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 98-104-8

Soccer Crusher
Greece + Colombia UNDER 2
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 589-21, lost last game)
Overall Record: 589-492-85

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Houston Astros +100 over Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals -118 over St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers -135 over Arizona Dbacks


Hockey
no play


Basketball
no play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Milwaukee Brewers -135

The Reds will be pitching Latos for the first time this year who is coming off a bumb knee. Gallardo is always a great pitcher at home and the Brewers usually are money in the bank at home. Cincinnati is not generating runs this year either. The Reds will probably only allow Latos to go 4 innings or so before they go to their bullpen which is a bit shaky. Take the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fading Teams
By ASA

Let's take a look at a couple of 1st place teams in baseball and assess how they got there and where they're going. Milwaukee and Detroit got off to fantastic starts this season but are currently trending downward are 'play against' teams right now. We see this situation arise every year when teams such as these start well and then become over-valued by the public. The Brewers and Tigers are currently valued like elite (1st place) teams, but are not really playing well of late even though the rest of the division has not been able to pass them up (yet).


Detroit is 6-16 their last 22 games after starting 27-12 and they were favored by -120 or more in 11 of those 16 most recent losses. That run has left the "Tiger-backers" with some empty wallets. Another sign Detroit is not as good as most people think is their record against top level opponents. The Tigers are just 11-13 against teams in our Top 10 Power Rating.

Much like Detroit, Milwaukee started the season 20-7, but have gone just 19-20 since, with seven losses as a favorite of -120 or more since May 1. Again, like Detroit the Brewers are just 2-5 against Top 10 teams this season.

Diminishing starting pitching has been a key factor for each club as four out of their five starters have much worse numbers since their first 6 starts of the season. Another reason both teams remain over-priced is the fact that both pitching rotations still have good overall season statistics and each has several established starters. Bullpens have been shaky of late as well, Detroit owns a 6.12 bullpen ERA in the last 10 games, Milwaukee at 4.40 in the last 10 games.

Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitchers:
Lohse 1st 6 ERA: 2.70 Since: 3.60
Estrada 1st 6 ERA: 3.13 Since: 5.83
Gallardo 1st 6 ERA: 1.91 Since: 5.40
Peralta 1st 6 ERA: 2.04 Since: 3.73

Exception to the rule:
Garza 1st 6 ERA: 5.00 Since: 3.95

Detroit Tigers Starting Pitchers:
Scherzer 1st 6 ERA: 2.08 Since: 4.47
Verlander 1st 6 ERA: 2.48 Since: 6.27
Porcello 1st 6 ERA: 3.49 Since: 4.62
Smyly 1st 6 ERA: 2.96 Since: 4.67

Exception to the rule:
Sanchez 1st 6 ERA: 2.89 Since: 1.59

Both teams have a few tough series coming up and could provide some great opportunities to play against them. Detroit kicks off a difficult stretch of series' against Minnesota, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Texas. The Tigers have a losing record against three of those four opponents this year, besting only Kansas City. They are just 4-10 against Minnesota, Cleveland, and Texas combined.

On Friday Milwaukee starts a three game series against Cincinnati. They already dropped three of four against the Reds in early May in the only series between the division rivals so far. The Brew Crew never scored more than three runs in any of those four games. They also have series' coming up against Arizona (1-2 vs. Diamondbacks this year) and Washington (10-3 in their last 10).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, playing on back-to-back days
47-10 since 1997. ( 82.5% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Midweek Series - Five Key Takeaways

It is time to again review the MLB Weekday series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you way ahead of the game in the days ahead.

A’s – And all those catches and throws that were not highlights…

The plan for a couple of weeks had been to save the Oakland defense as a topic heading into this weekend, when the gap between the A’s in the field and the Yankees could be used as a prime example of how under-valued that aspect of the game continues to be in the betting markets. Then Yoenis Cespedes made that brilliant throw to nail Howie Kendrick at home plate on Tuesday night, which went viral across the sports mediaverse, and the timing becomes even more pertinent. Yes, that was a remarkable play, but it is far from being the only one. Just 24 hours later Coco Crisp was reaching above the wall to take a HR away from Josh Hamilton, and Cespedes was at it again, throwing out Albert Pujols at 3B. Already this season Cespedes has thrown out three Angels at the plate. Welcome to the Oakland defense.

The A’s sport the best run differential in the Majors by a wide margin, and the defense has been a big part of that ride. They are #1 in PADE, and consider how much that .266 BABIP has helped to make their pitching staff look good – the league average is .294, and no other team is lower than .276. When the Yankees come to town this weekend, the defensive gap is considerable – they are allowing a .306 BABIP, and are #27 in PADE.

Now for some focus on how much impact the defenses have had on the bottom line. The Yankee pitchers have been striking out more batters (8.6-per-9) than the A’s (7.5-per-9), and allowing fewer BB (2.5-per-9 vs. 2.8), yet sport a 3.95 ERA, vs. the Oakland 2.83. The difference in HR rate of the home ball-parks indeed makes a difference, but it is the defense that tells the tale – when that is removed New York wins the xFIP comparison by 3.51 to 3.72. That xFIP metric tells us that the A’s defense has been worth almost one full run per game.

It is not a 66-game fluke. In 2013 the Oakland defense was #1 in PADE, #2 in BABIP allowed, and had an ERA of 3.56 vs. an xFIP of 4.05. In 2012 it was a #2 in both PADE and BABIP, with the ERA at 3.50 vs. an xFIP of 4.20. The defense had been very good those past two seasons, this time around they have elevated to great.

Some of the keys to the impact are things that are difficult to statistically measure. First is the confidence of the pitching staff to challenge hitters, knowing the quality of the gloves behind them. That is worth a lot. Second will be the lack of aggressiveness by opposing base-runners as the season progresses, having not only seen the highlight reels, but also the base scouting reports that show 20 assists for the OF already. Cespedes has nine of them, more than 13 other MLB teams, including, by the way, those Yankees.

Phillies – And when Ryan Howard sits…

If you are a subscriber to Steamwire (https://experts.***********/Store/Steamwire/Landing), and here comes the usual refrain – yes, you should be - there was a “Padres-Phillies Marketology” send-out yesterday morning that shows the value of the service, in terms of isolating value situations that you can take advantage of. Philadelphia was sitting Ryan Howard, with John Mayberry playing 1B, and there came all of the San Diego money – to the point at which you could have backed the Phillies at as high as +104 at first pitch, 20 cents from where they were sitting before the lineups were announced.

The Steamwire send noted the market over-reaction with a simple comparison – Howard was at .238/.308/.414 for the season, and .206/.268/.413 vs. left-handers, while Mayberry’s season was .242/.338/.500, and the lefty split .273/.385/.545. And no, this is not being written to showcase Mayberry on his big Thursday. Instead, it is about how little Howard actually brings to the table these days, something many market segments still do not fully appreciate.

The decline has been a steady one, after that 2005-11 cycle in which he entered each season as an MVP candidate. But that current slash line does not lie. His current K% is 30.8, well above his career 28.1 (only Mark Reynolds, Junior Lake and Danny Espinosa have been worse), while his BB% of 9.0 is far below the career 11.6. Pitchers are not afraid to throw him strikes anymore, especially with only 16.9 percent of his fly-balls leaving the yard, compared to a career 27.1. And this is happening at a position in which a team needs production if they are going to compete – the MLB average at 1B is .254/.329/.437. If we use WAR as the guideline, of the 34 players at the position that have at least 150 PA’s, Howard rates #27. How bad is that? He slots right below Brayan Pena and Ike Davis, and right above Justin Smoak and Yonder Alonso. Yet the Phillies continue to send him out there almost every day.

As for Mayberry, not only has he considerably out-hit Howard vs. left-handers this season (now at .324/.419/.703 after Thursday’s outburst), but in 2013 it was .240/.296/.460 to Howard’s .173/.218/.321, and in 2012 it was .271/.317/.494 compared to .173/.226/.378. Mayberry may only have 41 career starts at 1B, but given that Howard is below average defensively it is not likely that anything would be lost. The bottom line is that Howard should almost never start against a left-hander at this stage, and when he does sit, the Phillies may actually become a better team.

Orioles – Chris Tillman has been worse than you think

Off of back-to-back seasons of 9-3/2.93 and 16-7/3.71, Tillman appeared to be on his way as a solid MLB starter. As such his 5-3/4.91 does not set off major alarms just yet, especially after seemingly suffering a “bad luck” loss to the Red Sox in his last outing, a 1-0 in which he contributed six decent IP. But there may be something to see here.

You do not have to go far to find the warning signs – Tillman’s K’s-per-9 are down from 7.8 to 6.8 over 2013, while his BB-per-9 are up from 3.0 to 4.1. A wrong-direction change of more than one full outcome per-9 in the each of those categories is more than a warning sign; it is a red flag. To help create the proper perspective let’s look at a more advanced metric, of the 104 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his xFIP of 4.75 checks in at #101 (and one of the three below him, Chris Young, continues to be someone that you need to disregard in that particular category).

Tillman’s W/L mark is meaningless – twice this season he left after one inning, having allowed five runs or more, and was not tagged with a defeat, and he actually got a “W” in Toronto in a game that he allowed seven ER over 5 2/3 IP, including three HR’s. The fact that he held Boston to a single run in his last outing also should carry little meaning – 10 of the 27 batters that he faced reached via a hit or a BB, and the run he allowed was the only one the Red Sox scored in that entire series, getting shutout by Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen and the Baltimore bullpen. Tillman dealt to a 1.43 WHIP in that game; Boston managed only a 0.52 over the other 21 innings of that set.

There may have been a turning point that we can look back to. Tillman actually opened a solid 2-1/1.71 through four starts, but that fourth game was a laborious 122 pitches over just five frames in Fenway. He lost his way that day and it has not come back – in 10 starts since then it has been an ugly 6.57 ERA, with a 1.74 WHIP. During that span no full-time starter in the Majors has been worse, but the fact that he went 3-2 through those games, and the Orioles were 6-4, has kept it well under the market radar.

Rays – Could there be a “Buy Time” for Jake Odorizzi?

It is no longer a secret that 2014 is going to be a “lost season” in Tampa Bay, and many of the issues facing the Rays have been dealt with on this page, far ahead of the market curve. But now the prices are catching down to them, which could actually lead to some play-on situations over the course of the summer, particularly when Odorizzi takes the mound.

If a pitcher is sitting at 2-7/4.85, and the team behind him has the worst record in the Majors, there are not going to be many takers. But there are a couple of items that might help to cash tickets at what should be more than fair value. First is the belief that a Joe Maddon team is going to compete to the end of the schedule, regardless of their place in the standings. Second is that Odorizzi offers much more than his bottom line indicates, and is throwing the kind of pitches you can win with at this level.

First note that Odorizzi turned in seasons of 11-3/2.93 and 9-6/3.33 with two different AAA teams, Omaha (Royals) and Durham (Rays), and 231 2/3 IP at that level is a nice development tool for someone that is only 24. As for this season, that 2-7/4.85 ERA is not a good indicator. Of the 105 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his 3.50 xFIP rates #39, between #38 Henderson Alvarez and #40 James Shields. Those two are a combined 10-6/3.39. Get the picture?

How has it gone so wrong? Odorizzi checks in at #3 in K’s-per-9, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish, but when the ball has been put into play he has not had much fortune – a .350 BABIP that is far above the league norm of .294, with only four pitchers having a higher clip. When runners have reached base they have also come around too often – a 68.9 LOB% that rates #89, and can also regress towards league average over time. While the Tampa offense is not going to be anything special, over the course of the season Odorizzi should get more than the 3.2 of run support he has had so far (there have been three starts in which he allowed one run or none and did not get a win).

Cubs – How bad has Edwin Jackson really been?

There have been a couple of takes here in recent weeks using DBF (Difficulty of Batters Faced) as a metric for finding value on or against starting pitchers, now that there are enough box scores for that chart to matter. Jackson provides us with a prime example of how that factor can be used.

Jackson sits at 82-95/4.48 over 1,518 2/3 MLB innings, a traveling-circus tour in which he has had starts while wearing eight different uniforms. He has shown just enough flashes for teams to continue to give him opportunities, and then enough inconsistency for those tryouts to not last very long (of his 248 starts, 63 with Tampa Bay was a high). He finally landed with the Cubs LY, sporting a dismal 8-18/4.98, and so far this season it has been more of the same, a 4-6/4.70. But this time around it comes with a catch – he has actually been even worse than that.

Of the 105 pitchers that have worked at least 60 IP, Jackson’s DBF is dead last. He has faced hitters that have generated a .232/.292/.355 slash line, but has allowed them to produce at a .273/.348/.416. Let’s use some perspective to better illustrate what that means.

Only San Diego has a lower batting average than .232. The Padres are also the only team with an OBP of less than .292. And only the Padres and Mets have a lower SLG than .356. Jackson’s competition has been that weak. If we compare to individual batters, of the 168 qualifiers he has faced the equivalent of #142 for AVG (Dustin Ackley at .234), #145 in OBP (Mark Reynolds at .292), and #137 in SLG (Will Myers at .354).

Jackson is once again likely to draw some interest from contenders looking for an arm – it has happened before. Perhaps this time it shouldn’t.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) after shutting out their opponent against opponent after a combined score of 2 runs or less
36-24 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.0% | 27.3 units )
2-7 this year. ( 22.2% | -4.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 64-29 (+32.9 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.5) , OPPONENT (3.6)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Greece +440 over Columbia

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 4.40)

June 14 - 12:00 PM EST. An exciting showdown between the #8 ranked Colombians and 12th ranked Greece. Colombia came to the FIFA World Cup by way of exceptional play in their CONMEBOL qualification leg. Los Cafeteros have been able to force draws with Argentina and defeat Uruguay and Ecuador. Most recently, in an international friendly, the Colombians were able to procure an impressive 2-0 victory over highly touted Belgium. It is clearly indicative that Colombia can contend against top flight squads but they are overpriced here against this outstanding defensive opponent.

What is shocking is the disparity between Colombia and Greece by the oddsmakers. This is rather overwhelming considering Greece comes from the pedigree of UEFA qualification, accumulating twenty-five points on their way to qualification. Greece attained a berth to the 2014 World Cup by virtue of a play-off with Romania, where Greece emerged victorious in the aggregate. The thorn in the Greek side was an underrated Bosnia and Herzegovnia club. The Greeks allowed just four goals in their 10 group-stage games, three of which came in a single match against group winner, Bosnia. In typical Greek style, they won six qualifiers 1-0. Expect the Greeks to be as stingy as ever and give them a legit shot of pulling this upset.


England vs. Italy to Draw +202

Risking 1 units - To Win: 2.02)

June 14 - 6:00 PM EST. This is another European showdown that will certainly shape the outcome of Group D. The English and the Italians most recently met in 2012 at the EURO Tournament, where England would fall to Italy 4-2. The Italians are led by Andrea Pirlo, Daniele De Rossi and legendary goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Buffon was the catalyst and foundation of the 2006 championship run capped by off by Italy surrendering only one goal in the tournament. Pirlo is the secret weapon of Italy and he is a great concern for the English, who may be without Arsenal’s Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for the duration of the tournament. Both these teams are mirrored in rankings and have the potential to go deep in to the tournament. This opening contest is a tone setter for both squads and may feature a fair amount of quality chances and opportunities for both ends to mark.

However, this contest has every prospect of seeing multiple or no equalizers. The odds favor Italy to win this match-up by virtue of past accomplishments and recent matches but the English have Joe Hart, Daniel Sturridge and Frank Lampard. This is just the tip of the iceberg of talent that the English have on their squad entering this World Cup. Unmistakably, this contest will be a deciding factor for both teams that should earn a win against Costa Rica and be faced with the challenge of squaring off with South America’s most recently successful club, Uruguay. A win for either side can guarantee advancement in to the next round but in a game with two very equal clubs, the draw is where the value lies.


Honduras +1032 over France

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 20.64)

June 15, 3:00 PM EST. France and Honduras have never met before on any pitch. This is the inaugural collision between the European dynasty and their up and coming South American counterparts. Astonishingly, betting on Honduras can net any taker a handsome bounty if they dare offer at the massive take-back.

Comparing the FIFA Rankings, France is slotted at number 17 overall. Honduras is ranked 33rd. This by no means implies that France is twice as good as Honduras or does this cast a shadow of impunity in Honduras’ qualification. The presumption is that France will win the match because they are a perennial European power, however not so long ago, the expectation of French superiority greatly diminished. Teams like Belgium and Greece usurped the French in the rankings and were suddenly held in higher distinction. With these notions considered, Greece and Belgium on average are lesser of a favorite against less quality opponents overall. Honduras should by no means be a heavy underdog, as their body of work en route to the World Cup was exquisite.

The Hondurans pummeled fellow qualifier Costa Rica, they defeated America in the aggregate and they were a problem for Mexico. None of the three teams could come up with a win against Honduras. In fact, Honduras outscored these opponents 5-3. America is a 13th ranked football club, Mexico is ranked 19th respectively. Without question, Honduras can compete against top twenty opponents and France is no different. On a neutral pitch, Honduras is very capable of pulling off an upset. With a better than 10-1 incentive to the bold souls willing to place the bet, a victory by Honduras could be a sweet return on an enticing investment. Choosing Honduras with these odds may very well turn out to be the steal of the first week of the FIFA World Cup. Huge overlay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

(951) Chicago Cubs -$104

(Risking $103 to win $100) (Action)


1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

(969) Toronto Blue Jays -$115

(Risking $115 to win $100) (Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Mariners -125
50* Dodgers -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

9*Detroit Tigers-1½+111

This game features the 32-33 Twins and the 34-29 Tigers. Big time mismatch in this game as this is the first time this season I have taken a -1.5 as I just hate laying points. Twins have won 3 straight and are due for a let down today. Tigers are hungry and have the much better pitcher in Anibal Sanchez who is 2-2 with a 2.24 ERA. Take the hungry team here -1.5 for plus money 9* profit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Rangers/Mariners
Over 7.5

While we don't play as many MLB totals as some, we were able to cash a freebie last night with the Giants bullpen implosion in the ninth inning as the Giants and Rockies went over the number. We are looking at another nice totals play for Saturday MLB when the Texas Rangers and lefty Joe Saunders (0-2, 3.60) face off with Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 5.97) and the Seattle Mariners. Ramirez has really been a disappointment for the M's his season and he has been hit hard in the majority of his starts. In games between these two clubs, the OVER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Seattle and the OVER is also 9-2 in the Rangers last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record. We see Ramirez getting hit hard again tonight and Saunders is looking for his first win of the season. We think this one is going OVER the posted total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2005 as a road favorite after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base individually for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Yovani Gallardo starts the Brewers are 14-0 since June 24, 2010 as a home favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1400.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Red Sox are 2-17-1 OU since May 19, 2013 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. 2-6-1 this season.

CHOICE TREND:

The Rockies are 0-11 since September 05, 2012 as a dog when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter in a win for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Ryan Vogelsong starts the Giants are 13-2 since September 21, 2011 as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches last start for a net profit of $1060.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PowerplayWins

Power Play of The Day

Seattle Mariners (-117)
Pitcher: Ramirez
Game time: 7:00:00 PM (PST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS - The Pittsburgh Pirates have had some of the best outfields in baseball history, and based on the way this new version is starting out, there is plenty of reason to be excited about what lies ahead. In the immediate future -- today's game at Miami -- the Pirates can reach .500 on the season for the first time since being 8-8. They're currently in the middle of a 15-7 run and will rely on Charlie Morton this afternoon to get the job done.

Based on what we have been seeing with the Bucs' outfield lately, it should be expected that Morton will have plenty of support. Pittsburgh's top prospect Gregory Polanco has hit safely in all four of his games since being called up from Triple-A Indianapolis, where he hit .347 with 49 RBIs. Last night, the right fielder had his coming out party with a 5-for-7 night, including the deciding two-run homer in the 13th inning. The victory was their third in a row.

The buzz around Polanco has been infectious and gave just the type of nudge needed to get left fielder Starling Marte going. Last season, Marte was instrumental in getting the Pirates to their first playoff appearance since 1992, but prior to Monday, he had been mired in an 0-for-23 slump and was hitting only .230. Since news of Polanco being called up, Marte has hit .522 over his last five games.

Mix in the production of center fielder and reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen who has hit .408 this month, and there's plenty of reason to be excited about the Pirates' chances of not only getting to .500 today, but also making a major run for the division.

When looking over the production of the Pirates outfield over the past four days, it's hard not to be reminded of some of the greats that have patrolled the allies in the Steel City. The 1927 Pirates had Hall of Famers Lloyd and Paul Waner, known as 'little poison' and 'big poison'. The 1971 outfield had Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell, along with Al Oliver, who deserves more consideration for the Hall than he ever got. And then there's the group from 1990-91 that had Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Bobby Bonilla.

We'll have to wait to see how this outfield turns out before we realistically start putting them into the greats category, but the potential is definitely there.

Last season the Pirates got a major boost for their playoff run when they called up then-top prospect Gerrit Cole in June and he contributed immediately. Polanco could have that same effect this time around, and with the NL Central not looking nearly as tough as it was last season, the Bucs have a great shot to take control which makes 50-to-1 to win the World Series very attractive at this juncture.

Morton (3-7, 3.14 ERA) is coming off one of his better outings of the season where he allowed one run through seven innings in a 6-2 win against the Cubs. The right-hander has been baffling hitters of late, giving him a high strikeout total. Through his first 11 starts of the season, he was averaging only 4.1 strikeouts per game. In his last two starts -- both wins -- he's whiffed 16 batters. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his past four turns.

This is a spot where the Pirates really need Morton to step up and shoulder the load with Francisco Liriano and Cole both on the disabled list. And so far, he's done just that.

Randy Wolf will be making his fourth start of the season for the Marlins. The 37-year-old left-hander has given up four runs each during two losses and allowed only one run against a struggling Rays squad on June 2. The Marlins 22-12 home record is the best in baseball, but they're currently on a two-game losing streak.

Saturday selections:

Pirates (Morton) -110 at Marlins

Nationals (Strasburg) -121 at Cardinals

Red Sox (Peavy) -133 vs. Indians

Royals (Duffy) -105 at White Sox

Reds (Latos) +118 at Brewers

Yankees (Kuroda) +160 at A's

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced sports investments

perry’s soccer
fifa – world cup
1x- columbia -115 greece (12pm)
2x- uraguay -245 costa rica (3pm)
1x- england/italy – over 2 +104 (6pm)
1x- japan/ivory coast – over 2.5 +115 (9pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday June 14, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews – DOC Sports

Apparently you can already crown the San Francisco Giants as NL West champions, and they are the big -600 favorites on Sportsbook.ag. Interesting stat from ESPN: One of their statisticians compiled the standings from every season in the divisional era on June 13. A total of 27 teams had a division lead of six games or greater, and of those 27 teams only three ended up losing that lead. The Giants are up 8.5 games as of Friday the 13th. Here’s a look at their game and four other matchups Saturday on one of the best non-football sports weekends of the year (U.S. Open, World Cup, NBA Finals, maybe another Stanley Cup Finals game).

Rockies at Giants (-166, 7.5)

Colorado’s rotation is decimated, so it called up Christian Bergman for his major-league debut last time out, and he was pretty good, allowing two runs and six hits over six innings in a loss to Atlanta. Obviously no Giants have faced him. Ryan Vogelsong (4-3, 3.84) starts for San Francisco. The team had won four straight of his starts before he was roughed up for six runs over six innings last time out against Washington. His worst start of the season was April 21 at Colorado, allowing five runs — three homers — in 1.1 innings. Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario is 4-for-12 with three homers off him. Troy Tulowitzki is 0-for-10.

Key trends: The Giants are 4-1 in Vogelsong’s past four home starts against Colorado. The “under” has hit in four of those five.

Early lean: Colorado can’t hit on the road. Take the Giants +130 on the runline.



Rays at Astros (-102, 8)

Don’t expect to see one of Houston’s best players, second baseman Jose Altuve, in the lineup for this game. He was hit on the hand with a pitch on Thursday and left the game. The good news is that X-rays were negative, but Altuve is likely to miss a few days. He’s hitting .319 on the season. Chris Archer starts for the disappointing Rays. Archer (3-3, 3.42) blanked the Mariners over 6.1 innings last time out but the Rays lost the game because they aren’t scoring lately. They have lost Archer’s past three even though he has pitched well. Jarred Cosart starts for Houston. Cosart (5-5, 4.19) has allowed three runs or less in nine straight starts.

Key trends: The Rays are 2-5 in Archer’s past seven against teams with a losing record. Houston is 2-5 in Cosart’s past five at home. The “under” is 5-0 in Archer’s past five.

Early lean: Go “under” at -115.



Cubs at Phillies (-129, 8.5)

The Cubs lost Emilio Bonifacio to a rib cage injury Thursday. He’s unlikely to play here and in fact may need a DL stint. You might be asking: Why are you telling me about Emilio Bonifacio? He actually has been one of Chicago’s better players, hitting .266 with 13 stolen bases. The Cubs are offensively challenged as it is. Edwin Jackson starts for Chicago on Saturday. Jackson (4-6, 4.70) seems to alternate between terrible and pretty good. He allowed four runs over seven innings in a loss at Pittsburgh last time out and has a 6.10 ERA on the road. Jimmy Rollins is 5-for-9 with two homers off Jackson career. David Buchanan (1-3, 6.08) starts for the Phillies. They have lost his past three outings. He has never faced the Cubs.

Key trends: The Cubs are 1-5 in Jackson’s past six road starts against teams with a losing record. The “over” has hit in five of those six.

Early lean: Phillies rough up Jackson. Go with a Rollins hitting prop.



Diamondbacks at Dodgers (-136, 7)

L.A. might have to put shortstop Hanley Ramirez on the DL as he just had to get a cortisone shot in his troublesome shoulder. Now you see why the team didn’t give him a long-term extension. Ramirez is a good player but injury prone. That Dodger lineup faces arguably Arizona’s best pitcher right now, Josh Collmenter (4-3, 3.65). He is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts against L.A. this year. Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-7 with a homer off him. Dan Haren (6-4, 3.49) starts for the Dodgers. He has faced Arizona three times already this year, going 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA. Aaron Hill is a career .321 hitter off him with a home run and six RBIs in 28 at-bats.

Key trends: L.A. is 1-5 in Haren’s past six against teams with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in Collmenter’s past six in Game 2 of a series.

Early lean: Arizona is good value at +126.



Yankees at A’s (-148, 7)

Being as this is my last story of the weekend I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Yankees visiting Oakland. I believe Derek Jeter is quite overrated. Clutch guy in the playoffs, no doubt, and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But because he plays shortstop for the Yankees he’s a bit overhyped. That said, perhaps the best defensive play I ever saw was his immortal flip throw to catcher Jorge Posada in the bottom of the seventh inning in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS at Oakland. The Yankees led that game 1-0 but were down 2-0 in the series. Without that shocking play, which caught Jeremy Giambi at the plate, the A’s tie the game and maybe sweep. Instead the Yankees won 1-0 and took the series in five. This weekend will be his final trip to Oakland unless they meet in the playoffs. Jeter hasn’t had much career success off A’s starter Scott Kazmir, going 6-for-45 career, with two of those six knocks being home runs. Kazmir (7-2, 2.20) has allowed just three runs over 22.1 innings in his past three starts, all Oakland wins. New York goes with Hiroki Kuroda (4-4, 4.12). He faced Oakland on June 3 and allowed a run over 6.2 innings.

Key trends: The Yankees are 2-10 in Kuroda’s past 12 road starts. The “under” is 4-1 in Kazmir’s past five at home.

Early lean: Kazmir has been terrific. Go Oakland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Simon Green

Free Play

5* Yankees +148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

West capper

College World Series

3* UC Irvine +1.5 runline -160

0.5* Under 6 total runs -130

0.5* Texas under 3.5 team total -130

I've been waiting for this line all week, because Irvine should be the favorite here. Andrew Morales goes for Irvine, and the 1st Team All-American is one of the most difficult pitchers in college baseball to beat. He's 43-3 over his four year collegiate career, and is coming off a complete game shutout of Oklahoma State on the road. For the season he has a 11-2 record with a 1.53 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP (the 2nd lowest in Omaha). He is a matchup nightmare for the Longhorns because he pitches backwards and throws strikes. He can go deep into games and Irvine plays solid defense, and they are playing at such a high level right now. I really like this Longhorns team, and Thornhill on the mound is tough to beat as well. Texas is young though, and I could see some early games jitters playing apart for the Longhorns here. I like Irvine to win, and if your book doesn't offer runlines then I would suggest Irvine as a 1-2* moneyline play. I'll gladly take the +1.5 runline in a game that should be very close and very low scoring.


2** Louisville/Vanderbilt under 8.5 runs (-150)

0.5* Vanderbilt -140

I was surpsied when I saw Vegas lay a 8.5 on this game, because there are two elite arms on the mound and the shadows are difficult on hitters at TD Ameritrade for the night games. All-American Funkhouser goes for Lousiville, and he has a 1.73 ERA and is very good. He does battle the occasional wildness, but Vanderbilt isn't an extremely patient offensive club. Both teams do have speed, but both have great defensive clubs that I think will keep the game tight and low-scoring. TD Ameritrade is a huge ballpark, so very rarely does a ball get out of the ballpark. Fulmer goes for Vanderbilt, and if you like to see 1st round arms, this is the game for you. Funkhouser goes 92-96 mph, and Fulmer has a quirky motion but still runs it up mid 90s. Both teams have outstanding bullpens, so this should be low scoring.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vip-picks

bonus

Columbia -0.5 odds: 193

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Plays

bernardtips
League WORLD: World Cup
Ivory Coast - Japan
TIPS : Over 2.0


getmybet
League: WORLD: World Cup
Uruguay - Costa Rica
Tips : Over 2.0


mysecretbets
League: WORLD: World Cup
Ivory Coast - Japan
Tips: Over 2.0


goforwinners
League: WORLD: World Cup
Uruguay - Costa Rica
Tips : Over 2.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor

MMA

Rory MacDonald (-105) over Tyron Woodley

Andrei Arlovski (+150) over Brendan Schaub

Mike Easton (-200) over Yves Jabouin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

Soccer

2* bet GRE/COL u2 (-120)
1* bet GRE (+420)
1* bet GRE/COL draw (+230)

2* bet URU (-210)

1* bet ITA/ENG draw (+205)

3* bet JAP/IVO o2 (-135)
1* bet IVO (+170) 3-Way
1* bet IVO (-110) 2-Way

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

E&B lost both plays on Friday in World Cup soccer with Cameroon +$260/Mexico for $25 and $25 on the Draw +$220.

Ben lee won on Friday in the Stanly Cup Finals Game Five in double over time with the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings -$170/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" lost on Friday in MLB in the American League with the Mariners -$200/Rangers.

For Saturday in World Cup Action E&B has two plays

(1) Uruguay -$220/Costa Rica

(2) A play on the Draw +$190 between Italy/England

For Saturday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Tigers -$175/Twins.

Ben lee is 3-7-$234 for week thirty three 145-170-5 -$3038

"Mr Chalk" is 30-29 -$710 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Baltimore Orioles -103 over the Toronto Blue Jays (Money Line Bet) (MLB Basebal) - Game Starts at 4:05 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire Streakers


CIN/MIL UN 7.5 -120 Onora L10gms 2ov/8un 80% 1 unit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

5* Pittsburgh Pirates-130
4* Seattle Mariners-115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

4* LA Angels-110
3* Under 7 - nyy vs oak

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

San Diego @ N.Y. METS

N.Y. METS -120 over San Diego

(Risking 2.4 units - To Win: 2.00)

4:10 PM EST. We’re not in the habit of playing favorites because it’s not often that you find value in doing so but if the Giants are -160 (or thereabouts) over the Rockies than the Mets should be -180 over the Padres. We see lots of games at a higher price than this one and that's so wrong because thiis a significant pitching mismatch in the Mets favor and the Padres are dead last in the majors in several key offensive categories. The Padres have lost five in a row and nine of their past 11 games. Over that span they are hitting a pathetic .159 and it’s not just because they play in an extreme pitcher’s park. On the road, San Diego is batting a league low .212. Prior to this series they played three in Philly and scored five times and now they’ll face one of MLB’s most undervalued pitchers in Zack Wheeler. Wheeler cruised through three straight starts before a small road bump against the Giants earlier this week (4 ER in 3.2 IP on 86 pitches). Still, his 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP have huge room for improvement because Wheeler has some of the best skills in the game. Wheeler posts a strong K-rate of 9.2 K’s/9 through 13 starts and a 55% ground ball percentage. He does a great job of keeping balls in the park (0.6 HR/9) and the only reason his ERA is high is because of a low strand rate of 70%. Wheeler has the third best xERA in all of baseball over his last seven starts, which sits at 2.46. Expect a run at double-digit strikeouts and a win against the Padres today.

Jesse Hahn's promotion was as short-lived as expected. Hahn was sent to AAA-El Paso after his June 3rd start against the Pirates in which he was tagged for six hits and four earned runs in 3.2 innings. Hahn gets an emergency start here because Eric Stults was put on the bereavement list. His first start was at Petco and he was hammered. His second start isn’t likely to be much better, as Hahn takes the step from Double-AA San Antonio to the majors and it’s not like he was dominating the Double-AA Texas League. He posted a .252 BAA and pitched just 35 innings over eight starts. Hahn was yanked almost every game after pitching four innings or less, as the (San Antonio) Missions tried to bring him along slowly. His chances of pitching deep into this game are slim and his chance of success are just as slim.


Kansas City @ CHICAGO

Kansas City -1 +115 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

2:10 PM EST. After yesterday’s 7-2 victory, Kansas City has not only won five in a row but they’ve won nine of the past 10 games they’ve played at this venue. We mentioned yesterday that the Royals, based on their numbers, should be scoring a lot more runs than they were and they made us look good by hanging up a crooked number in the first inning and going on to an easy win. More of the same is a distinct possibility here against Hector Noesi. This is Noesi's third team in 2014. Noesi went 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA in 21 innings for the Mariners last year. He spread out those 21 innings over five of the six months of the season but the abuse he took at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. This year, Noesi is 2-4 with an ERA of 5.40. He has a unacceptable WHIP of 1.50 and a shaky 36%21%/44% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. He has poor control, he’s been extremely hittable at this level and he’s put up those awful numbers (both on the surface and under) with an unsustainable 80% strand rate over his last five starts. We've seen worse base skills but Noesi needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. We're not optimistic.

Danny Duffy has shown some flashes of the upside he displayed prior to his Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, including a near no-hitter. While his overall skills do not support his current 3.26 ERA, his raw stuff gives him much more strikeout upside than he is showing. Besides, this one is about backing Duffy. The bet here is based on the hot Royals winning again, at a place they win often, against one of MLB’s worst starters.


Colorado @ SAN FRANCISCO

Colorado +150 over SAN FRANCISCO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

4:05 PM EST. The Giants are cooling off a bit with four losses in their past five games including the opener of this series last night, 7-4. San Fran is always tough to beat at home, especially in day games but wagering against Ryan Vogelsong cannot be ignored when he’s priced this high. Vogelsong is having a decent year with a 4-3 record to go along with a respectable 3.84 ERA but his skills still say he’s a risky proposition. Vogelsong has a weak 38%/23%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. His K rate is up but so are his walks, which has led to a below average 1.32 WHIP. Vogelsong significantly outpitched his skills during 2011-12 resurgence but it caught up to him and he was exposed last year. This year’s he’s outpitching his skills again and he’ll be facing a hot-hitting Rockies team that has won three in a row and has scored 35 runs over their last four games. Wagering on Vogelsong is a dart throw.

In his first major-league start five days ago, Christian Bergman didn’t set the world on fire but what he did do was hold the Braves to six hits and three earned runs in six innings. That was at Coors Field and the kid showed he deserves another shot. Bergman is hoping to translate some of his minor league success to the major leagues. He set a Triple-A Colorado Springs franchise record with 24 consecutive scoreless innings and an improbable 0.30 ERA in the month of May. We profiled Bergman in our MLB call-ups section so you can read more about him there. At this price against Vogeslong, Bergman and the Rockies most certainly offer up some nice value.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFFREY JAMES (Play of the Day)

Detroit Tigers -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet - 977 TEX (+119) vs 978 SEA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HARRY BONDI FREE PLAY

MLB
ST. LOUIS (+120) over Washington
7:05 p.m. ET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger

4% move

* SOCCER (26250) TOTAL u2-125 (GREECE vrs COLOMBIA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

*EARLY* 10* Saturday Afternoon MLB BEST BET!
Orioles ML +100

*EARLY* Saturday Afternoon MLB BLUE MARLIN! *SPECIAL*
Tigers ML -180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHAKER'S SHORTS

957 San Diego Padres Team Total - UNDER 3.5 -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Stoffo

Rangers vs Mariners - Over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 6/14

MLB Baseball

Los Angeles Dodgers -139 over the Arizona Diamondbacks
(Money Line Bet)
Overall Record: 270-244
(System Record: 270-13, Lost last 3 games)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

7-Unit Play. Take Ivory Coast/Japan ‘Over’ 2 (-120) (9 p.m, Saturday, June 14)

5-Unit Play. Take England PK (-115) over Italy (6 p.m., Saturday, June 14)

2-Unit Play. Take Costa Rica +1.5 (-180) over Uruguay (3 p.m., Saturday, June 14)
Note: This is an alternative line on the goal line spread

3-Unit Play. Take Colombia -0.5 (-120) over Greece (12 p.m., Saturday, June 14)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#953: Rockies: +150 1.5*
Listed Pitchers: Bergman / Vogelsong

#965: Royals: -105 2.5*
Listed Pitchers: Duffy / Noesi



Totals

#955/956: Under Marlins: 8.0 (+110) 3.5*
Listed Pitchers: Morton / Wolf

#969/970: Over Orioles: 9.0 (+100) 2.5*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

MLB

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

2* KC ROYALS
(Listed Pitchers)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Toothless Tigers big faves

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Saturday's major league games:

Braves Get Over AL Hump

The Atlanta Braves won their first game against the American League in sven tries when they squeaked out a 4-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels Friday night.
They are currently listed as +103 underdogs for the second game of the series with the Angels, which may be a good thing. They were 0-5 against the AL as favorites.

Rising Royals

The Kansas City Royals have won five straight and eight of their last 10 and now just sit a 1.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. The Royals are slight -105 favorites when they send Danny Duffy (3-5 3.26 ERA) to the mound to take on Chicago White Sox in a Saturday matinee.

Despite No Bite, Tigers Big Faves

The Tigers have lost 17 of 24 games, which includes losing 11 of the last 15 games at Comerica Park. Despite all this the Tigers are currently heavy -193 favorites against the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers will turn to Anibal Sanchez to provide a boost. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs since returning from the DL.

Pitching Notes

* Scott Kazmir and the Oakland A's (-147) are looking like a good bet againt the New York Yankees. The Athletics are 11-2 when Kazmir starts this season.
Meanwhile, Hiroki Kuroda is on the mound for the Yankees, who have lost 10 of his last 12 road starts.

* Stephen Strasburgh is on the hill for the Washington Nationals (-130, 6.5) against the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite the fact Strasburgh hasn't given up more than three runs in his last 10 starts he is one over the league's best over pitchers with a 10-4 over/under mark on the season.

Hitting Notes

* Pittsburgh Pirates rookie phenom Gregory Polanco had a night to remember Friday night, tallying five hits, including a two-run homer in the top of the 13th inning, leading the Bucs to an 8-6 victory over the Miami Marlins. Impressive for just his fourth major league game.

* Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp homered for the first time in more than a month Friday night as the Dodgers squeaked out a 4-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are 5-0 over/under when Kemp goes yard this season.

Injury Notes

* Washington Nationals pitcher Gio Gonzalez completed his second rehab start Thursday and is ready to return to the Nats' rotation. Gonzalez had been on the disabled list May 18 due to inflammation in his pitching shoulder. Washington is 13-11 in Gonzalez's absence.

* St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright could miss a start to let the tendinitis in his pitching elbow calm down. Wainwright, who is 9-3 with a 2.15 ERA, is scheduled to pitch Monday against the New York Mets and both the team and the pitcher said he could possible pitch then, but rest would be beneficial.

Weather Watch

At Citi Field, where the New York Mets (-120, 7.5) host the San Diego Padres, there will be a strong 13 mph win blowing in from left field. In games at Citi field where there is a strong like this the over/under is 3-5, while the Mets are 4-4.

Umpire of the Day

Sean Barber will be calling balls and strikes when the Cleveland Indians meet the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park today and with that being the case the over has been a hot play. Teams have gone over the game total seven times in Barber's last eight games behind home plate. The total for the game is currently at 9.0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball


ST. LOUIS MILLER -R +1.5 Runs, -165 over Washington (7:15 et)

[golden contender]

Saturday card has the 21-1 American League System Game of the Month, a 90% Afternoon Totals system and an MLB Perfect system road warrior that wins by an average 4 runs per game. We also have a World Cup play on ESPN. Free MLB Power angle play below.


On Saturday the Free MLB Power Angle play is on the SF. Giants. Game 954 at 4:05 eastern. The Giants were stunned last night at home as Colorado put together a 5 run top of the 9th inning. Things should get back to normal tonight. The Giants are 25-8 here vs Colorado and 11-2 at home off a home favored loss where they scored 4 or less runs. San Francisco is 18-6 in Day games and 13-1 as a home favorite from -150 to -175. So they get the job done in this range. The Rockies are 1-11 on the road off a road win if they scored 5 or more runs. They have Christian Bergman making his road debut tonight in a Tough venue. He will be taking on B. Vogelsong who is 6-1 at home in his June starts the last few seasons and 4-1 at home vs Colorado allowing just 7 runs in 33 innings. Look for the Giants to wipe away the bitter last from last night loss. On Saturday there are 3 Huge MLB Releases out. The 21-1 American League Power system Game of the Month, a Perfect system Road warrior system that's winning by an average 4 runs and a 90% MLB Totals system that goes in afternoon action. We also have a World Cup selection on ESPN. to Jump on now and out the Power of our cutting edge data on your side. For the free play take the San Francisco Giants. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MMA OddsBreaker

FREE Play

Phillips/Letourneau OVER 2.5 (-255) with Jimmo/St. Preux OVER 2.5 (-150)

Both Elizabeth Phillips and Valerie Latourneau are making their respective UFC debuts on Saturday night. Women's MMA bouts have a significantly higher percentage of going the distance (unless you're Ronda Rousey) and don't be surprised to see this fight go all three rounds either. Phillips is the bigger, stronger fighter, but she's still a work in progress and will likely use her strength and grappling edge to either keep this fight in the clinch or on the ground. We fully expect the bout to go over 2.5 rounds.

Ryan Jimmo and Ovince St. Preux are both talented light heavyweights, but Jimmo has a storied history of going the distance in his bouts. Jimmo has shown increased knockout ability lately, but that was against significantly overmatched competition and St. Preux is a much more competitive bout for him. St. Preux should hold a wrestling edge and likes to work for submissions on the ground, but Jimmo should be savvy enough to avoid getting tapped out. There's a good chance this fight becomes a more drawn out affair so we like the over 2.5 rounds here as well for a decent plus-money parlay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Atlanta Braves +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NonStopSportsPicks

2* Cubs/Phillies Under 8.5 (-120)

1.5* Angels/Braves Under 7.5 (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Time: Saturday 06/14 4:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Baltimore -101 (moneyline) at Bookmaker

The Toronto Blue Jays are maintaining residual value from their long run, but in a negative way now. They have leveled out, and are not the team that most view them as at this point in time. They have not gotten the Cy Young numbers from R.A. Dickey that compelled them to bring him to Toronto, and although he is 6-4 he carries an ERA of over 4 on the season. Bud Norris has won three of his last four starts, the most recent, an eight-inning gem vs. Boston where he allowed 0 runs in eight innings. Norris has held the Birds in check twice this season, allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings against them. Baltimore is 8-2 in their last 10 division games, and with Norris on the hill, they are 5-1 in his last six division starts. Dickey has not been good as a road favorite, with the Jays stumbling to a 1-5 mark in his last six. Play on Baltimore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Time: Saturday 06/14 4:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Baltimore -101 (moneyline) at Bookmaker

The Toronto Blue Jays are maintaining residual value from their long run, but in a negative way now. They have leveled out, and are not the team that most view them as at this point in time. They have not gotten the Cy Young numbers from R.A. Dickey that compelled them to bring him to Toronto, and although he is 6-4 he carries an ERA of over 4 on the season. Bud Norris has won three of his last four starts, the most recent, an eight-inning gem vs. Boston where he allowed 0 runs in eight innings. Norris has held the Birds in check twice this season, allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings against them. Baltimore is 8-2 in their last 10 division games, and with Norris on the hill, they are 5-1 in his last six division starts. Dickey has not been good as a road favorite, with the Jays stumbling to a 1-5 mark in his last six. Play on Baltimore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside Sports Report
5* T Bay -125
3* Balt +100
3* Tex +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Portfolio

Detroit Tigers -191
Over 8 -120 Minnesota Twins/ Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays -130
Under 7.5 -125 San Diego Padres/ New York Mets
Los Angeles Angels -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars

#965 / 2:10pm ET - 11:10pm PT
KANSAS CITY ROYALS w/ Duffy @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX w/ Noesi
3*** Play on: OVER the TOTAL
This is an ACTION play. It's a play on the OVER regardless of the scheduled starting pitchers.

Umpire: CHRIS CONROY is the #1 OVER guy in all of Baseball. Average runs-per-game is a whopping 14.9. He's off a game inwhich 23 runs were scored (Atlanta vs Colorado on 6-10). He's gone 3-0 in American League games (13.3 rpg)... and 3-0 O/U in 'Righty vs Lefty' pitching matchups (18.0 rpg).


#953 / 4:05pm ET - 1:05pm PT
COLORADO ROCKIES w/ Bergman @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS w/ Vogelsong
3*** Play on: OVER the TOTAL
This is an ACTION play. It's a play on the OVER regardless of the scheduled starting pitchers.

Umpire: CHRIS SEGAL has gone 8-3 O/U on th e year (#6 in the league out of 82) with an average of 11.3 runs-per-game. In the National League, average RPG is 12.0. And in 'Righty vs Righty' pitching matchups, average RPG is 13.1.

#967 / 4:05pm ET - 1:05pm PT
CLEVELAND INDIANS w/ House @ BOSTON RED SOX w/ Peavy
3*** Play on: OVER the TOTAL
This is an ACTION play. It's a play on the OVER regardless of the scheduled starting pitchers.

Umpire: SEAN BARBER is the 4th highest OVER Ump in all of Baseball. Average runs-per-game is 10.1. He's on a current 7-1 O/U streak in his last 8 games (11.6 RPG).

ADDITIONAL Over / Under opinions:
Cubs-Phillies OVER...
Reds-Brewers UNDER...
Rays-Astros OVER...
Blue Jays-Orioles OVER...

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MrParlayKing

'Guaranteed'

Royals/White Sox UNDER 8.5 @ -115
Tampa Bay Rays ML @ -135
Oakland Athletics ML @ -150
LA Angels ML @ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

WNBA

3-Unit Play. #652. Over 154 LA Sparks vs. San Antonio (Currently at 153.5 at the Wynn and Mirage) (Saturday @ 8:05pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Dunavant

KC Royals -128
Min Twins +175
Col Rockies +155
SDG Padres +110
TB Rays -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SharpAngles

MLB First 5IP Totals

Over 4.5 Cubs/Phillies
Over 4 Marlins/Pirates
Over 4 Mets/Padres
Over 3.5 Cardinals/Nationals
Under 4.5 Tigers/Twins
Under 4 Astros/Rays
Over 3.5 A's/Yankees
Over 4 Mariners/Rangers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OddSportsWizard

WNBA- Los Angeles -2

Arena Football (24-19 ytd)
Over 109 Philadelphia/Pittsburgh
Over 103.5 Iowa/Tampa Bay
Over 109 San Antonio/Arizona
Over 97.5 San Jose/Spokane
Los Angeles Kiss +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Soccer

3*: England PK +105 (saturday)

3*: Ivory Coast/Japan over 2 -115 (saturday)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Magic Mike Picks

Los Angeles Angels
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 7.5 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Sparks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spretizer

Los Angeles Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FEZZIK FOCUS

965 KC Royals (1st 5 innings) -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas runner
#NFAC #MLB Late Steam =
PHILLIES -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Franklin

Arizona Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* TRIPLE DIME DOMINATOR GAME OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Angels


2* Over Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

Los Angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves (MLB) - 7:15 PM EDT Premium Play

Pick: Money Line: -115 Los Angeles Angels Play Title: MLB Inter League 8 Unit Play!



New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT Premium Play

Pick: Money Line: -170 Oakland Athletics Play Title: A.L. 8 Unit Play!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner


Top (Highest Rating)


Under 9.5 -120 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nemo

Russian Syndicate Play

England Pk

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

1971 Over 4 (-130) Min-Det (1st 5) $1000

968 Under 9 1/2 (-120) Cle-Bos $1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates ML Best Bet

Houston Astros RL

Under Total 9 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KELSO

100 Unit

Oakland Athletics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

MLB

ML:
None

O/U:
TB @ Hou Over 8 +105
LAA @ Atl Over 7 +100

RL:
KC +1.5 -210

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

(MLB)

GAME OF THE WEEK

5-Unit Play. Take #962 Milwaukee (-125) over Cincinnati 7:15 p.m.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting As A Business

MLB (10:05 et)
NY Yankees (Kuroda) +137 / Oakland (Kazmir) 10:05 ET 1.00 Unit
(Play ON NY Yankees)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Roller Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers ML -131

OVER 7.5 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win

J Mo’s Plays:


1* GAME - NYY @ OAK: Athletics ML (-155: Risking 1.55 units to win 1 unit) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME - ARI @ LAD: Dodgers ML (-145: Risking 1.45 units to win 1 unit) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME - LAA @ ATL: Braves ML (-105: Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit) - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Dunavant

Added Plays

Washington Nationals ML

Los Angeles Angels ML

New York Yankees ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Ross

UFC

5* Jimmo Brendan

5* Brendan Schaub

5* Rafael Cavalcante

5* Tyron Woodley

Live Dog

1* Ali Bagautinov

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (8-2, 80% L19 days)
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 10:05 ET.


Outstanding pitching has been the impetus for New York’s current four-game winning streak. The Yankees are on the brink of matching a season-high five-game winning streak (from April 12-17) and the team’s 1.75 ERA (1.55 from the starting rotation)in the last four contests is a big reason why. Hiroki Kuroda (4-4, 4.12 ERA / team is 5-8 in his 13 starts) will hope to get some help, as the right-hander was a hard-luck loser at Kansas City last Sunday, allowing just two runs in seven innings but the offense went 1 for 17 with runners in scoring position. That 2-1 loss was New York's most recent defeat.


"You get a great performance by Kuroda, and we didn't do anything with it," manager Joe Girardi told the team's official website after that game. That’s really nothing new. The 2014 season has been a struggle for him, as he has won just TWICE in his last 10 outings. I've always liked Kuroda but I'm VERY leery of him these days. His first four seasons were with the Dodgers, where he posted ERAs of 3.73, 3.76, 3.39 and 3.07. However, he was just 41-46 in that span. He’s been with the Yankees these last two years, posting ERAs of 3.32 and 3.31 but yet again, his W-L mark was a mediocre 27-24.


However, this year his ERA is 4.12 (LT it's 3.45), his WHIP is 1.22 (LT it's 1.18) and opponents are batting .266 against him (LT it's .250). The real 'kicker' in this situation is his continuing problems away from home. Kuroda's home ERA is 4.93 this season and his road ERA is just 3.19 but the Yankees just DON'T win when he takes the mound away from home these days, going back to mid-season last year. Here's the skinny. Kuroda is 1-8 in his past 13 road starts, going back to a July 25 of 2013 win. The Yankees are just 3-10 in those 13 starts, making them an 77% "play-against" in Kuroda's road starts.


Getting the ball for Oakland tonight will be Scott Kazmir. Some may remember Kazmir as the ace of a Tampa Bay staff, when the Rays were mostly a struggling team. Kazmir went 45-34 (.570) from 2005-08, posting ERAs between a low of 3.25 to a high of 3.77. During that four-year span, while the Rays went 291-357, they were 65-52 when Kazmir got the start. Doing the math, Tampa played .556 baseball when Kazmir started but just .426 (226-305) baseball with someone else getting the start. That's called a "difference-maker!"


Kazmir's never really been healthy since getting traded by Tampa back in 2009 but here in Oakland this year, we've seen "the Kazmir of old!" He's 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 13 starts (A's are 11-2!), allowing just 63 hits in 82 innings with a 70-17 KW ratio and an 0.98 WHIP, while opponents have batted just .211 against him. The A’s lost last night 7-0 but still own the AL’s best record (40-27), as well as MLB’s top run-differential mark (plus-123). The next-best mark in the AL is owned by Toronto (plus-37 runs), with the Giants owning the second-best mark in all of MLB (plus-56), which is less than HALF of Oakland’s plus-123 runs!


Kazmir has made a believer out of me and I look for the A’s to extend Kuroda’s road woes in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

Late MLB Plays


Seattle/Texas-Over Total - Best Bet

Milwaukee ML

LA Angels ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

Text Move

Over 3.5 first 5 Innings New York Yankees/Oakland Athletics