7-3-14

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::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The umpiring trend you need to know for Thursday
Stephen Campbell

Ron Kulpa will be calling balls and strikes for Thursday's meeting between the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals which is good news for Giants backers. In San Fran's last eight games with Kulpa behind the plate, the Giants are 7-1.

BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com currently has the Giants as -142 home faves with a total of seven.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under bettors profiting with Tampa on the road
Stephen Campbell

The Tampa Bay Rays have been partaking in a lot of low-scoring affairs when facing right-handed pitching away from Tropicana Field recently. Through Wednesday, ten of their last 12 games on the road versus righties have gone under the total. The Rays open their four-game series against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park Thursday.

According to BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com, the Tigers are presently heavy -180 faves with an O/U of eight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Greenbrier Classic Preview and Picks
Matt Fargo

Last week, Justin Rose won in a playoff over Shawn Stefani at the AT&T National from Congressional Country Club. This week, The Old White TPC at The Greenbrier plays host to the 5th annual Greenbrier Classic. The Greenbrier was on the brink of bankruptcy recently but renovations that took place between 2002 and 2006 helped attract the tour and the rest is history. The Old White TPC, built in 1914, is the oldest course to host a PGA Tour event.

The Old White TPC is one of only two tracks that finish with a par three, the other being East Lake, host of THE TOUR Championship. It is a par 70 that that stretches 7,287 yards and as with most tour layouts, driving accuracy will be important as the fairways are tight and greens are firm. Four years ago, the course ranked 2nd easiest of the 14 par 70 tracks on tour and that was certainly justified after Stuart Appleby put up a Sunday 59 to card an overall score of 22 under par.

Three years ago, it ranked 13th out of 51 courses in difficulty while two years ago it was 27th out of 49 tour stops and was the fifth easiest par 70. Last year, it came in as the third easiest par 70. The finishes have been some of the best of late as three years ago, Scott Stallings defeated Bob Estes and Bill Haas on the first playoff hole. Two years ago, Ted Potter Jr., after closing eagle-birdie on the final two holes, defeated Troy Kelly on the third playoff hole. Last year, Jonas Blixt won by two shots over four players.

We used Brendon Todd (+2,500) last week and he once again was outstanding with a T5 finish. He is playing some of the best golf of anyone around as he has a win, a pair of T5's, a T8 and a T17. He did not play here last year but made the cut in 2011 and with the way he is playing, he has the ability to eat up any course right now.

Bill Haas (+2,500) looks to put last Sunday's 77 behind him but still finished T30 and has yet to miss a cut this season. He has three top eight finishes this year and while he has yet to win, he has won at least once in each of the last four years. The Greenbrier is the place that could add to it as he lost in a playoff in 2011 and finished T9 last year.

It has been another year of many first time winners and Brendon de Jonge (+3,000) looks to add his name to that list. He is a birdie machine and this course will give up a lot as he has witnessed with a solo third in 2010, a T4 in 2011 and a T17 last year that included two 66's. He is coming off a T8 at Congressional last week.

Brendan Steele (+4,500) is getting exceptional value here. He is coming off consecutive top fives at the Travelers Championship and the Quicken Loans National, easily his best two-tournament stretch this season. His lone win came back in 2011 at the Valero Texas Open and he is on the brink of another. Opening 66 here last year.

Brian Harman (+9,000) will be the longshot pick this week and he fits the situation. He is coming off a MC last week at Congressional but has missed consecutive cuts only twice all season while following up three of those with a T3, T16 and T6. He has made the cut in both Greenbrier starts.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Greenbrier Classic (all for One Unit)
Brendon Todd (+2,500)
Bill Haas (+2,500)
Brendon de Jonge (+3,000)
Brendan Steele (+4,500)
Brian Harman (+9,000)

2014 Record to date after 24 events: -63 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +22 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC - Accenture Match Play +23 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open -5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -7 Units
Zurich Classic -5 Units
Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 Units
U.S. Open -6 Units
Travelers Championship -5 Units
Quicken Loans National -5 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's Golf Picks

Jeff Overton has withdrawn from the tournament, so he will be replaced by Chris Stroud @ 55/1 I would like to welcome everyone to the 2014 Greenbrier Classic this week.
The Greenbrier Classic is played in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia at The Old White TPC. Last year was the 5th year the tournament has been named The Greenbrier Classic, as it replaced the Buick Open on the PGA Tour circuit. Unfortunately for tournament organizers, players have fed off the easy layout of the Par 70, 7020 yard course. We actually had Jeff Overton four years years ago, and Stuart Appleby went out and shot a 59 on Sunday to win by 1 stroke over Jeff.
When organizers saw how easy the course was playing for the Tour pro's, they took a year to lengthen and toughen up the track. Many greens have been altered or replaced and the rough figures to be much more of a challenge this week than in previous years. The course will be playing at 7229 yards this year and will continue to be played as a Par 70.
With a premium once again being put on Total Driving and accuracy from the fairways, lets take a look at one of the most interesting finishing holes in golf (and one that will have an impact on the golf tournament this week.)
The Par 3 162 Yard 18th Hole -
Rarely do you ever see a course finish with a Par 3, but that is exactly the case this week at The Old White TPC. This short Par 3 is where Stuart Appleby made history four years ago by rolling in his putt for a final round 59.Though the 18th is guarded by bunkers, it utilizes its severe two tiered green to guard against the players taking advantage of the short hole. If you are on the wrong tier you can completely count out birdie, and would be more than happy not ending your round with a three putt. Look for the 18th to once again be a climatic setting come Sunday, with the stadium-like gallery loving every minute of it.
The Players
This week we have a below average list of headline names competing as many are preparing elsewhere for the upcoming Open Championship. Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson headline this years stars who will be competing in the Greenbrier Classic. Jimmy Walker, Brendon Todd, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, and Steve Stricker are just a few of the other notable names that will be competing this week.
This week we are keying on players who can take advantage of an easier course, yet also play it properly. Though The Old White TPC will be tougher this year, it still presents players with the ability to score well. If you drive the ball in the fairways and are accurate with you irons, you will have the ability to go low this week. Player's who played well last week at an extremely difficult Congressional, are most likely going to find this week very forgiving.
One other thing to watch for is the player's who need to improve their Fed Ex Cup standing in order to qualify for the first event of the playoff season, The Barclays. With only the Top 125 players making the field at The Barclays, look for positioning to be in the back of many players minds.
This season players also have the opportunity to qualify for the Open Championship from the Greenbrier Classic, with spots being awarded to the Top 4 players at the end of the week.
Without further ado, lets get down to my outright winner picks.
Steve's Six Pack


Chris Stroud 55/1 - This pick replaces Jeff Overton's withdraw
Brendon De Jonge 33/1 - De Jonge is another player who has yet to win on Tour but has had many close calls. He showed his ability to play with some of the worlds best last season at the Presidents Cup, and I thought that would propel him to a huge 2014. De Jonge has just 4 Top 25's in 23 events this year though, but he did finish T8 last week.
Last season at this event Brendon finished T17, and would have been in a great position to win if it wasn't for a 3rd round 73. De Jonge has a history of good finishes at this course though as he also has finished 3rd in 2010 and T4 in 2011. Confidence should be at an all time high this week for De Jonge and I feel we are getting great odds on him. A key for Brendon this week will be hitting Greens in Regulation, as he only ranks 119th on Tour in this category. He is a terrific driver of the ball (25th in Total Driving), and loves putting on these greens. I am looking forward to watching the big man from Zimbabwe make plenty of birdies.
Brendon Todd 24/1 - Todd has been on fire as of late. He has finished inside the Top 20 in five straight Tournaments, including a win at the Byron Nelson and a pair of T5's at the Crowne Plaza and the QuickenLoans. It has been everything about his game that has been on recently and I really think he will be on the Ryder Cup team this year. Todd proved he can compete with the best in the game at the US Open (T17), and looks driven to win again.
He will get a great opportunity to this week as Brendon has a putter that is on fire right now. He sunk plenty of 7-10 foot putts last week to save par or make birdies. The course this week will seem like a breeze to Todd who has played played great golf at some tough courses recently. I know he let us down last week, but Todd will make up for it this week.
Morgan Hoffman 110/1 - Hoffman is an interesting selection this week. Hoffman played in this tournament for the first time last year and he finished T23. He hit 75% of his Greens in Regulation that week and played the Par 3's and 4's in a combined 4 under. Hoffman will look to take advantage of the Par 5's more this season, as just 2 under on them will not cut it.
Hoffman has yet to finish in the Top 10 in his second full season on the PGA Tour but this week it will happen. He has success at tournaments when you have to make a lot of birdies and should build off a few positives I noticed last week. Hoffman played great the first two days shooting 70 and 68, but something happened on the weekend and he shot a pair of 78's. Following the tournament he expressed that his game feels right on the edge of breaking through and he was looking forward to this week. I also liked how he showed great composure even when this were not going his way. I have a gut feeling that Hoffman will use last week's tough weekend and be that much more focused on playing great this week.
2 Units on Jimmy Walker 11/1 - I do not even need to explain this pick. Jimmy Walker is going to play on the Ryder Cup team this year, has a chance at being named player of the year, and is by far the favourite this week is West Virginia. He was runner up here last year and has a pair of T4's in 2010 and 2011. Walker finished T9 in his last start (the US Open) and is going to be in contention on Sunday this week. Lay 2 Units on him and enjoy watching one of the best players in the world right now play a course he loves.

HEAD TO HEAD


We will go with two Head to Heads this week each for 3 Units
3 Units on - Jimmy Walker (-120) over Bubba Watson
3 Units on - Brendon Todd (-125) over Keegan Bradley
Let's get that elusive winner and get on a great run here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Brewers on Wednesday and likes the Rangers on Thursday.

The deficit is 183 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo went belly up with the Reds Wednesday in San Diego, then did more of same in his night move with the Giants, whose setback boosted the deficit to 1,495 blanchards.

Thursday: Mr. Aitch expects Tanaka to have recovered from Saturday night’s ill-advised fastball to Napoli — 10 units on the Yankees to be bad news for Hughes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

"Mr Chalk" won on Wednesday in MLB in the American League with the Orioles -$160/Rangers.

Ben lee lost his futures wager on Maria Sharapova to win Wimbledon.

For Thursday in the women's semi-finals at Wimbledon E&B likes Eugenine Bouchard +$140/Simona Halep.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Thursday.

Ben lee is 3-2 +$145 for week Thirty Six 165-191-5 -$2984 thru Thirty Five weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 45-34 -$346 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks Texas at Baltimore The Orioles go for the series sweep tonight and come into the contest with a 7-1 record in Wei-Yin Chen's last 8 starts as a home underdog. Baltimore is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


THURSDAY, JULY 3
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: St. Louis at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Martinez) 15.333; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.538
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Over


Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Miami (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.443; Miami (Hand) 11.790
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under


Game 905-906: Arizona at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.780; Pittsburgh (Worley) 14.619
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Under


Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.085; Colorado (Morales) 15.524
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Over


Game 909-910: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 14.735; Baltimore (Chen) 17.693
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Under


Game 911-912: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Bedard) 14.583; Detroit (Scherzer) 17.071
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over


Game 913-914: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 15.740; Minnesota (Hughes) 13.316
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over


Game 915-916: Toronto at Oakland (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 16.957; Oakland (Gray) 15.812
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under


Game 917-918: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.080; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 14.071
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks Los Angeles at Seattle The Sparks head to Seattle tonight to face a Storm team that is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Thursday games. Seattle is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


THURSDAY, JULY 3
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 601-602: Tulsa at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 107.724; Connecticut 114.747
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Over


Game 603-604: San Antonio at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 110.507; Minnesota 117.030
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 157
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+8); Under


Game 605-606: Los Angeles at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 108.257; Seattle 111.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

July Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

April – May – June

Fireworks and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair from K-Mart? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4th of July.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

Note: * designates pitcher was on this list last year.

I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, it’s time to take me out to the ballgame…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Hudson, Tim (12-5)

When San Francisco signed Hudson, our guess is they were hoping for a serviceable No. 5 starter with veteran experience which could give them a better than 50-50 chance to win. It has turned much better for the Giants, winning 10 of Hudson’s 15 starts and he has held right-handed batters to just a .245 average. Especially watch for Hudson at home, where he’s only lost twice since last season.

Jackson, Edwin (10-4)

Have to admit, a stunner to see this much traveled ball-chucker having a good month any time. Wish I could say I had an answer for his July success for a guy who is 83-97 in the big leagues, but I don’t. In looking for a positive, Jackson pitches better at Wrigley Field than on the road (3.86 ERA vs. 6.70) and he’s won four of six decisions at the friendly confines this season.

*Kershaw, Clayton (12-5)

The best pitcher in baseball is coming off a fantastic June, in which he was 6-0 and surrendered four total runs in his starts and picked up a no-hitter. The early nit-picky talk about his curveball has quieted and he’s back to his old-dominate self. He has 107 strikeouts in 79.1 innings and a WHIP of 0.92. Opposing teams are hitting .209 against Kershaw and left-handed batters, why bother, with a .180 average.

*Porcello, Rick (12-1)

With a star-studded pitching staff, Porcello only ranks fourth in the rotation as far as ability, but this season he’s been then their moneyman in winning 11 of 15 outings. He’s also been one of the top bets among pitchers at +7.15 units. The big difference with the right-hander this season is his sinker has more dip and he’s making fewer bad pitches, leading to more wins and is on pace for a career-low WHIP of 1.19. If the Detroit offense continues hitting, keep backing Porcello in July.

Tillman, Chris (7-3)

The Orioles ace has picked up +5.6 units in spite of 4.00 ERA, with Baltimore 11-6. How has Tillman done this? While probably unaware of the betting odds, he knows when he matched against a very good starting pitcher from the opposing team and pitches better, which is why the O’s are 9-2 this season with Tillman as an underdog. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, who’s had some trouble on the road (5.53 ERA), if he can improve command, he should be a winner this month.

*Weaver, Jered (13-5)

Just love the analytics crowd who love to use a six-inch paintbrush to encompass a wide swath to their thought processes. “Weaver will continue in serious decline” was among the scathing preseason reviews of the angular right-hander. His fastball peaks out at 91 on good days and is more consistently 88-89 MPH and is does not compute to them he would concede 18 percent fewer hits to innings pitched with that kind of velocity. All Weaver does is win and dominate righty hitters (.163 BA).

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bedard, Erik (1-10)

Bedard was not good enough to pitch a second season with Houston and is primarily in the majors only because Tampa Bay needed a warm body in the spring after their starting staff was decimated by injuries. The 35-year old has not been horrible this season, but he’s not a fit on a team that expects to be a playoff contender, which Tampa Bay is not this season. More bad news ahead.

*Norris, Bud (4-10)

For his entire career, Norris has been a solid pitcher at home and unbelievably bad on the road. He must have been thrown in a lot of away games in July to earn this record and will start the month on the DL with a right groan strain. When he returns, definite Play Against potential in away games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Redblacks at Blue Bombers


Ottawa Redblacks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The expansion Ottawa Redblacks play their first game Thursday when they visit the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Redblacks are already at the top of the East Division without playing a game thanks to Week 1 losses by every other East team. That position will be difficult to maintain against Winnipeg, which posted 45 points with its new-look offense against the Toronto Argonauts.

Quarterback Drew Willy tossed four touchdowns in his Blue Bombers debut, setting the bar high for his second outing. Veteran pivot Henry Burris will be under center for Ottawa, which has not had a CFL team since 2005. Special teams are a concern for Winnipeg after allowing a pair of long returns against Toronto, while the Redblacks finally decided on a kicker, going with 24-year-old Brett Maher.

LINE HISTORY: Lines for this game are currently off the board.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bombers couldn't have looked any better in last week's 45-21 win over the Argos, and they'll have the advantage of staying at home for another winnable game against the expansion Redblacks on Thursday. Ottawa really is an unknown commodity at this point. There are undoubtedly going to be some growing pains, even with plenty of veteran talent on the roster. Until we get a grasp of what the Redblacks have to offer, this is a difficult game to handicap. Bombers could find themselves slightly overvalued off last week's big, albeit surprising victory." Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-0): Ottawa will be without receiver Carlton Mitchell, who is on the one-game injured list. Backup quarterback Thomas DeMarco jokes he is behind “the CFL’s Brett Favre” in Burris, 39, who brings 51,526 career passing yards of experience to the expansion franchise. Running back Chevon Walker looked sharp in preseason action, scoring three touchdowns in a win over the Montreal Alouettes.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-0): Winnipeg added receiver Romby Bryant and defensive back Troy Stoudermire to its roster Sunday, presumably for depth purposes. First-year running back Nic Grigsby got his CFL career off to an excellent start with 122 rushing yards in Week 1. The Blue Bombers' defense forced three fumbles and recorded one sack against the Argonauts.

TRENDS:

* Blue Bombers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
* Blue Bombers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 5-2 in Blue Bombers last 7 games in Week 2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks Ottawa at Winnipeg The RedBlacks play their inaugural game tonight against a Winnipeg team that is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Thursday games. Winnipeg is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Bombers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


THURSDAY, JULY 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST


Game 421-422: Ottawa at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 100.317; Winnipeg 108.994
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 6 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-6 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
By David Schwab

The new CFL regular season just got underway this past weekend and we have already seen a pair of shocking upsets to kick things off. Winnipeg got the ball rolling with a 45-21 romp over Toronto last Thursday night as a seven-point home underdog.

After Calgary thumped Montreal 29-8 on Saturday as a 7½-point favorite at home, Edmonton went on the road to beat British Columbia 27-20 as an eight-point underdog. In a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup Championship, Saskatchewan was even more dominant this time around with a 31-10 victory over Hamilton as a 3½-point home favorite to close things out for Week 1.

Total bettors watched the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 record in Week 1.

Opening numbers provided by 5Dimes

Thursday, July 3


Ottawa RedBlacks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Ottawa RedBlacks are the CFL’s newest franchise and they will make their debut on the road this Thursday night after enjoying an extra week to prepare with a bye. The expectations for an expansion team are never that high, but Ottawa will have an experienced gunslinger at the helm in veteran quarterback Henry Burris, who led the CFL in passing yards last season with 4,925 while playing for Hamilton.

The Blue Bombers only won three games straight-up in 2013 while averaging just 20.1 points a game, but they more than doubled that total last week against Toronto with Drew Willy lighting things up at quarterback. He completed 19-of-27 throws for 308 yards and four touchdowns.

Betting Trends

While there are obviously no recent betting trends for Ottawa, Winnipeg comes into this matchup with a 3-9-1 record against the spread in its past 13 games and they are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 home games.

Friday, July 4


British Columbia Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Point-spread: British Columbia -1
Total: 51

Game Overview

BC was listed as 5Dimes’ favorite to win this season’s Grey Cup on its preseason futures board, but last week’s loss at home has already raised some red flags. Kevin Glenn, who replaced an injured Travis Lulay at quarterback, was picked-off four times and the Lions’ ground game was held to just 53 yards.

The expectation level for Montreal’s re-tooled offense that now features former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback and Chad Johnson at wide receiver, sputtered out of the gate with just eight points in Saturday’s loss. Smith struggled to complete just 44 percent of his 41 passes for a total of 154 yards. Johnson recorded two catches for 20 yards.

Betting Trends

The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Montreal and they are 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings overall. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two, including the last five games played at Percival Molson Stadium.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Pointspread: Edmonton -2½
Total: 52

Game Overview

Hamilton will quickly need to put last week’s trip to Saskatchewan in the rear view mirror to avoid a 0-2 start on this West Division road trip. It fell behind 24-1 at the half behind new starting quarterback Zach Collaros. He ended the day with 139 yards passing and a lost fumble and interception.

The Eskimos had the second-worst record in the CFL last season at 4-14 SU, but they looked like a whole different team in last Saturday’s upset against BC. Mike Reilly threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns while adding 33 yards on the ground. Edmonton’s defense was torched for an average of 28.8 points per game last season, but it came up big against BC in its 2014 season opener by holding the Lions to just three second-half points.

Betting Trends

The home team in this series has gone 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games. Hamilton does hold a 13-6 edge ATS in the last 19 meetings in this matchup.

Saturday, July 5


Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Pointspread: PICK
Total Line: 53½

Game Overview

The defending champs are off to another solid start this year after going 8-1 SU in their first nine games of the 2013 regular season. Darian Durant was efficient throwing the ball in the win over Hamilton last Sunday with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent, but it was the Roughriders’ ground game that led the way. Anthony Allen ran the ball 27 times for 158 yards and one score while averaging 5.9 yards a carry.

The Argonauts are still trying to figure out what hit them in last Thursday’s season opener that started with a 17-0 hole in the first quarter. Ricky Ray’s numbers were solid with 283 yards passing and two touchdowns, but Toronto’s defense failed to show up after giving-up well over 300 yards through the air and over 130 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

The Roughriders come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 13 games between the two at the Rogers Centre. The road team in this matchup has won six of the last eight meetings SU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PGA Tour heads to West Virginia
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


The Greenbrier Classic
Tees Off: Thursday, July 3
The Greenbrier – White Sulphur Springs, WV

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds

Jimmy Walker 25-to-2
Bubba Watson 25-to-2
Webb Simpson 20-to-1
Keegan Bradley 25-to-1
Brendon Todd 25-to-1
Bill Haas 25-to-1
Steve Stricker 30-to-1
Brendon de Jonge 30-to-1
Gary Woodland 30-to-1
Marc Leishman 30-to-1
Kevin Na 30-to-1
Patrick Reed 35-to-1
Chris Kirk 35-to-1
K.J. Choi 45-to-1
Daniel Summerhays 45-to-1
Brendan Steele 45-to-1
Jonas Blixt 45-to-1
Chris Stroud 50-to-1
Ben Martin 50-to-1
J.B. Holmes 50-to-1
Charles Howell III 55-to-1
Nick Watney 60-to-1
Carl Pettersson 60-to-1
Cameron Tringale 70-to-1
Shawn Stefani 70-to-1
David Hearn 80-to-1
11 Golfers 90-to-1
10 Golfers 110-to-1
12 Golfers 130-to-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 150-to-1
Ricky Barnes 160-to-1
14 Golfers 180-to-1
2 Golfers 200-to-1
7 Golfers 230-to-1
21 Golfers 250-to-1
23 Golfers 250-to-1


As the PGA season comes closer to its end, the players move their talents to West Virginia for The Greenbrier Classic; a very young tournament which was established in 2010. This tourney should bring plenty of scoring, as the winner in each of the past four years has been at least double-digit numbers under par with last year’s victor, Jonas Blixt, shooting 67 or better each day on his way to a 13-under-par score. The par-70, 7,287-yard course will host just one player from the top-10 this week (Bubba Watson) and just three others (Jimmy Walker, Steve Stricker, Keegan Bradley) from the rest of the top 25; leaving this tournament wide open for some new blood. Tiger Woods will not be joining the field just one week after coming back from injury and missing the cut at his own tournament; the Quicken Loans National. Let’s take a look at a few golfers who should be ready to do well this weekend.


Golfers to Watch
Jimmy Walker (25/2): The current FedEx Cup leader has a good chance to extend his lead this week at a course where he has played extremely well, placing in the top-4 in three of the past four years. He has continued to play well lately also, placing in the top-10 in both the U.S. Open and Players Championship against very tough fields. Walker's putter has taken him this far, as he is gaining .887 strokes via putting (4th on tour), leading to the eighth best scoring average (69.75) on tour. Look for Walker to put up a solid performance as he looks for his fourth victory of the season.
Webb Simpson (20/1): Simpson started out the season strong with top-10 finishes in six of his first eight tournaments, and more recently tied for third at the St. Jude Classic. He has played great at the Greenbrier over the past three years, placing in the top-9 in 2011 and 2012 while putting up a nice 64 in the first round last year before falling off. Simpson has made 20.9% of his putts from between 20-to-25 feet (3rd on tour) and has gained 0.700 strokes from putting (9th on tour) this season. Look for him to use that putting ability to make a strong push come Sunday.

Bill Haas (25/1): Haas lost in a playoff here back in 2011 and also was successful in last year’s tournament (9th). He has yet to place in the top-3 this year, but seems to be poised to do so here, as he has done well in the past and ranks fifth in sand-save percentage (61.1%) while hitting 68.4% of greens in regulation (17th on tour). Haas should push his way into the top-10 and contend for his sixth career PGA Tour victory.

Brandon de Jonge (30/1): This tournament has not been around long, but de Jonge probably has the best track record here without a win, placing 17th last year and finishing in the top-5 in both 2010 and 2011. He has not been spectacular in any one area this season, but is among the top-25 in greens hit in regulation (66.9%) and total driving (128). The soon-to-be-34-year-old is coming off a strong eighth-place finish at the Quicken Loans National and should bring that momentum into this weekend.

Cameron Tringale (70/1): Tringale is no world-beater on the PGA Tour right now, but the 26-year-old placed fourth here in 2011 and then finished 23rd after three consecutive rounds of 68 or better to finish off the tournament last year. This youngster has yet to win on the tour, but this season has left the door wide open for plenty of newcomers, and this tourney is a great forum for Tringale to come away with a win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Make or Break'

It's make or break for Toronto Blue Jays who embark on a ten game road swing that will see the club play four in Oakland, three in Anaheim and three in Tampa. Jays have had success away from the friendly confines of Rogers Center posting a 22-18 record but are just 3-7 the past ten on the road. Opening the series in Oakland with Dickey (6-7, 4.24 ERA) the Jays have a tough one. The knuckler has lost three straight surrendering 6 long-ball, 12 runs over 20 1/3 innings of work and heads to the mound 1-5 on the road with Jays 1-6 over his seven starts. Stroman (4-2, 4.01 ERA) in GM2 Toronto has a shot as the right-hander has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts and the hurler has surrendered 2 or less in five of his six since moving into the starting rotation. Tough-luck Burhrle (10-5, 2.50 ERA) gets the call in GM3. The lefty is winless over his last five outings, but does have a 3.44 ERA over that stretch. Those choosing to side with Toronto can take comfort in knowing Jays are 2-0 vs A's w/Buehrle. In the finale, Hutchison (6-6, 3.81 ERA) off his best outing of the season hurling 7 innings of 1 run ball in a win over Brewers tries for a repeat performance. Hutchison splits make him an interesting choice, Jays are just 2-5 at home with the righty but shine on the road when he takes the ball posting a 7-2 mark.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Yankees -160

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Oakland -160 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland has won 88 of the last 129 games when playing as a favorite of -125 to -175 and they have won 34 of the last 50 games when playing in the month of July.Oakland has won 48 of the last 68 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have won 57 of the last 100 games vs. AL East Division Opponents.

================================================== ===



50* Play Philadelphia +110 over Miami (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees -145 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL




Play Philadelphia +110 over Miami----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

6:00 PM EST

Brad Hand has lost 10 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and he has lost 11 of the last 14 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Brad Hand has lost 6 of the last 8 home games and he has an ERA of 11.37 over the last three starts.





Play Arizona +130 over Pittsburgh----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST


Vance Worley has lost 17 of the last 28 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 7 of the last 11 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Vance Worley has lost 7 of the last 10 games after giving up one or less earned runs in his last outing and he has lost 10 of the last 17 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play St. Louis +135 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis is 90-62 in day games over the last three seasons
St. Louis is 29-20 after having lost five or six of the last seven games
St. Louis is 49-26 games after batting .240 or worse over the last ten games


10* Play Philadelphia +110 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)

Miami is 13-27 when playing on a Thursday the last three seasons
Miami is 23-30 when playing in the month of July the last three seasons
Miami is 60-83 after having lost five or six of the last seven games

=============================================

5* Play Arizona +130 over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Houston +160 over LA Angels (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

WNBA | TULSA at CONNECTICUT
Play On – Home favorites (CONNECTICUT) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%)
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

WNBA | TULSA at CONNECTICUT
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (TULSA) good shooting team (43.5-46%) against an average shooting team (40.5-43.5%) after 15+ games, after 4 straight games – allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or higher
28-13 since 1997. ( 68.3% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SEATTLE
Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a losing record
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | LA DODGERS at COLORADO
Play Against – Any team (COLORADO) very good NL hitting team (AVG >=.280) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities
205-140 since 1997. ( 59.4% | 72.2 units )
27-16 this year. ( 62.8% | 7.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | LA DODGERS at COLORADO
LA DODGERS are 21-8 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in Road games in July games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.9) , OPPONENT (3.8)

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Pirates(-142)

If Vegas is gonna give us this kind of value with a hot home team(Pirates have won 9/11) vs a cold road team(Dbacks have the worst record in baseball and have lost 6/10), then we are gonna take it every time.
Worley (2-0, 1.74 ERA) should help Pittsburgh keep rolling against McCarthy (2-10, 5.11) whose only 2 wins come against the Padres.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

SOCCER
PERRY’S SELECTIONS (July -3.20)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE
10:30AM LITEKS LOVECH -215 @ FC VERIS
1:45PM FK HAUGESUND @ AIRBUS UK BROUGHTON – OVER 2.5 -135

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EZWINNERS

3* (908) Rockies RL+1.5 (-$130)

3* (916) A’s -$165

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 7.5 – A’s/Blue Jays
50* Marlins -115

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BOB BALFE

SELECTION
TEXAS RANGERS -120

(Darvish/Chen)
I feel like the Orioles got away with one last night. Baltimore couldn’t hit a below average pitcher and now have to face Darvish. Good luck with that. Texas does hit left handed pitching well and I expect them not to get swept today with their ace on the hill. Take the Rangers.

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GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Dodgers
Team B: Rockies
Pick: Under 10.5
Risk:$100 to win $105
Time: 5:00 PM PT

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RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Rangers will send their ace to the hill this evening in hopes of salvaging a game in their four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles. Yu Darvish (8-4, 2.42) gets the call for the Rangers against W.Y. Chen (7-3, 4.19) and the Orioles. While this season has been a struggle for the Rangers, Darvish has been terrific and produced six starts already where he has not surrendered a run. The Rangers are 14-3 in Darvish’s last 17 starts as a favorite and 9-1 in his last 10 starts when he has four days rest. The Orioles haven’t handled the role of a home underdog lately, where they are 3-9 in their last 12 games in that situation. This is a bit of a value play as well as you will not be able to get Darvish at -115 very often and Chen is coming off a performance last time out which was less than stellar, surrendering five runs in just over three innings in a loss to Tampa Bay. We think Darvish helps the Rangers salvage a game in this series and as a side note, we would also recommend sprinkling in a little bit on the Under here as well. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – TEXAS RANGERS (-115)

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Vegas SI
THURSDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Tigers -1.5 and 10* MLB UNDER 8
20* MLB Angels -180 and 10* MLB OVER 8.5
20* MLB Rockies +125 and 10* MLB OVER 10.5
20* MLB Giants -155 and 10* MLB UNDER 7
20* MLB Tigers -1.5 and 10* MLB UNDER 8

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Under Umpire Streakers

#909 TX/BAL UN 7.5 -115 Barry 3ov/7un L10gms 70%

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Big Bet Tiger

St Louis/San Francisco Under 7

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BEHIND THE BETS

SF Giants
Toronto Blue Jays

[golden contender]

Thursday card has a 5* Road Warrior system and a 24-2 Blowout system. Top plays cash 2 of 3 on Wednesday. Free MLB System Play below.


On Thursday the free MLB System play is on the LA. Dodgers. Game 907 at 8:10 eastern. The Dodgers fit a nice 88% system tonight that applies to opening game road favorites with a total of 10 or more that are off a home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs, and are taking on a teams, like the Rockies, that are off a road dog loss. The Dodgers have won 6 straight as a road favorites off a home loss and 8 of 9 on the road vs leftys, which is what they will see tonight in F. Morales. Greinke goes for the Dodgers and he has a solid 2.87 road era. Morales for Colorado has a mediocre 5.55 home era and a 7/87 era over his last 3 starts. Look for the Dodgers to win the opener tonight. On Thursday its another Powerful MLB Card led by the 5* 100% Road warrior system side and a 24-2 Blowout system. MLB Top plays cashed 32 of 3 on Hump day. Inbox to Jump on now and see the most powerful data out there. For the free MLB Play take the LA. Dodgers. GC

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GOODFELLA

Personal Play on MIAMI MARLINS

(Listed Pitchers)

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William Holloway

Pirates -142

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Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Rays at Tigers

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Bedard (4-5, 4.21 ERA)
DET: Scherzer (9-3, 3.64 ERA)

Previous series recap: Both these teams are coming off impressive sweeps, as the Rays took three games from the Yankees on the road, while the Tigers took care of the AL West-leading A’s at home in three games. Tampa Bay no longer owns the worst record in baseball as the Rays are currently 6-1 on their road trip, as each of the last four wins have come in the favorite role.

What to watch for: Since dropping three straight to the Royals at home in mid-June, the Tigers are rolling through an 11-2 stretch the last 13 contests. Detroit has won six of Scherzer’s seven starts at Comerica Park this season, while the Rays have dropped three of Bedard’s past four outings on the highway.

Yankees at Twins

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Tanaka (11-3, 2.10 ERA)
MIN: Hughes (8-4, 3.58 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Yankees hit the road after suffering their fifth straight defeat on Wednesday, a 6-3 setback to the Rays at home. In four losses during this funk, New York has scored three runs or less, while going on a 5-1-1 run to the ‘under’ in the last seven games overall. The Twins were blanked in the series finale by the Royals on Wednesday, 4-0 to drop two of three games to Kansas City, as Minnesota has stumbled to a 2-7 mark in the past nine contests.

What to watch for: Following a 12-2 record in his first 14 starts, the Yankees have lost the last two outings made by Tanaka, as the offense has plated just one run in those defeats. The Twins have won 10 of Hughes’ previous 13 outings, including a 7-2 victory against his former squad in the Bronx last month as a +120 underdog.

Dodgers at Rockies

Probable Pitchers:
LAD: Greinke (10-4, 2.78 ERA)
COL: Morales (4-4, 5.75 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Dodgers fell in the final two games to the Indians, capped off by a 5-4 setback on Thursday as -140 favorites. The Rockies stumble home after a dreadful 1-6 road trip at Milwaukee and Washington, as Colorado squandered a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat to the Nationals last night as +165 underdogs.

What to watch for: Los Angeles has lost each of the last four road starts made by Greinke, including a 5-4 loss at Coors Field last month in extra innings. The Dodgers have won six straight games against left-handed starting pitchers dating back to June 9, while capturing five of their last seven road series openers. Since sweeping the Giants on the highway two weeks ago, the Rockies have limped to a 2-14 mark in the past 16 contests, including a 1-5 mark at home.

Blue Jays at Athletics

Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Dickey (6-7, 4.24 ERA)
OAK: Gray (7-3, 3.20 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Blue Jays walked-off past the Brewers on Wednesday, 7-4 to complete a mini two-game sweep of the Brewers, while finishing off their homestand at 5-4. The A’s return to the Bay Area after an up-and-down road trip, which concluded by getting swept at Detroit in three games, as the offense managed to score just seven runs in the series.

What to watch for: Toronto swept Oakland at home the last time these teams squared off in late May, as all three games finished ‘under’ the total. Dickey has lost each of his last three trips to the mound for Toronto, as the Jays own a dreadful 1-6 record in his seven road outings. Gray’s numbers have dipped following a fast start, as the righty allowed five earned runs in five innings in his past outing at Miami, but the A’s picked up the victory in extra innings as a -155 favorite.

Astros at Angels

Probable Pitchers:
HOU: Oberholtzer (2-6, 4.40 ERA)
LAA: Shoemaker (5-2, 4.50 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Angels failed to pull off the sweep of the White Sox last night, falling 3-2 as a –155 favorite, while finishing off their road trip at 3-3. The Astros stubbed their toe in a three-game sweep at the hands of the streaking Mariners, as Houston wrapped up its homestand at 3-6, while allowing 28 runs in the three losses to Seattle.

What to watch for: Houston has won just two of Oberholtzer’s 10 starts this season, but the southpaw did pick up a victory as a +170 ‘dog at Los Angeles last August. The Angels are riding a six-game winning streak at home after sweeping the Twins and Rangers on their previous homestand, but tonight’s number (-170) is the highest price Shoemaker has been listed at in nine career starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

killer move
detroit

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Behind The Bets

Germany/France Draw +225 (3*)
Brazil -118 (3*)

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 7/3


3-unit Play Take #909 Texas Rangers (-110) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST)

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA 7/3

7* Take San Antonio/Minnesota 'Over' 158 (8 p.m, Thursday, July 3)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Play

Game: Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm
Time: Thursday 07/03 10:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Seattle +2 (-108) at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)

There is a boatload of talent on this Los Angeles Sparks team, but the record doesn't consider what it says on paper. Right now the Sparks are heavily into the under-achieving column at just 6-9 on the season. Seattle drew the short straw when it came to scheduling, as the Storm played 10 of their first 13 games on the road. They have already played more than half their season and this is just their seventh home game where they own the toughest arena in the league for a road team to win. The Storm are 96-29 here in their last 125 regular season games. The Sparks have been poor in conference games where they are 8-17 ATS in their last 25, and just 3-8 ATS overall in their last 11 on a day of rest. Seattle is under the radar based on their schedule, and always seem to rise to the occasion at home. Make the play on Seattle.

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Dave Essler

Colorado +1.5

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Steve Stevens

SF Giants -145

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Sports handicapper king

mlb
dodgers

cfl
ottawa + 3.5

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Tony The Sports Betting Champ
MLB System Bets for July 3:
Official: Oakland [A] bet (bet on money line)


Unofficial: Colorado [A] bet (bet on +1.5 run line)

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 901 STL (+139) vs 902 SFG

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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

SF Giants ML

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Indian Cowboy - MLB
3* #913 New York Yankees -150 over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EDT)

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HERO SPORTS BETS

st.louis vs san francisco – Over 7

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Robert Ferringo

7-Unit Total

Under 6.5 St Louis / San Francisco

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MLB

National League
Cardinals-Giants
Martinez is 1-0, 3.38 in three starts (only 13.1 IP).
Bumgarner is 1-2, 3.86 in his last four starts.

St Louis lost four of its last six games.
Giants lost 13 of their last 16 home games.

Under is 12-4-1 in last seventeen St Louis road games.

Phillies-Marlins
Kendrick is 0-2, 5.79 in his lastt couple starts.
Hand was 0-1, 11.37 in two starts back in April.

Philly lost seven of its last eight games.
Miami lost nine of its last fourteen games, but won last two.

Under is 3-1-1 in last five Kendrick starts.

Arizona-Pirates
McCarthy is 1-5, 5.50 in his last six starts.
Worley is 2-0, 1.74 in his first three starts for Pittsburgh.

Arizona lost seven of its last ten road games.
Pirates won nine of their last eleven games.

Last six Diamondback games stayed under total.

Dodgers-Rockies
Greinke is 2-2, 3.28 in his last four starts.
Morales is 0-3, 8.16 in his last six starts, last of which was May 31.

Dodgers are 13-6 in their last 19 games, but lost last two.
Colorado lost 14 of its last 16 games.

Four of last five Morales starts stayed under total.

American League
Rangers-Orioles
Darvish is 1-2, 5.68 in his last three starts; he's allowed no runs in four of his last nine starts.
Chen is 0-1, 6.32 in his last three starts.

Rangers lost 12 of their last 14 games.
Baltimore is 10-5 in its last fifteen games.

Six of last nine Darvish starts stayed under total; six of last eight Chen starts went over.

Rays-Tigers
Bedard is 1-1, 5.76 in his last four starts.
Scherzer is 1-0, 2.07 in his last two starts.

Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games.
Tigers won eight of their last ten games.

Eight of last twelve Detroit games went over the total.

Bronx-Twins
Tanaka is 5-2, 1.92 in his last seven starts but lost his last two, with Bombers scoring one run in the two games.
Hughes is 1-2, 5.23 in his last three starts.

Bronx lost nine of its last eleven games.
Minnesota lost seven of their last nine games.

Under is 5-0-1 in last six Tanaka starts.
Blue-Jays-A's
Dickey is 0-3, 5.31 in his last three starts.
Gray is 1-2, 5.79 in his last four starts.

Blue Jays lost five of their last six road games.
Oakland lost its last three games, scoring seven runs.

Six of last seven Toronto games stayed under.

Astros-Angels
Oberholtzer is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three starts.
Shoemaker is 2-1, 5.47 in his last four starts.

Houston lost 12 of its last 16 games.
Angels won nine of their last twelve games.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Martinez 0-3; Bumgarner 3-17
-- Kendrick 9-16 (8 of last 11); Hand 1-2
-- McCarthy 4-17; Worley 0-3
-- Greinke 3-17; Morales 2-11

-- Darvish 2-15; Chen 6-16 (4 of last 7)
-- Bedard 3-14; Scherzer 5-17
-- Tanaka 5-16; Hughes 3-16
-- Dickey 4-17 (3 of last 5); Gray 6-16
-- Oberholtzer 5-10; Shoemaker 0-8

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Highroller Sports Picks

PITTSBURGH PIRATES-150

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ANTHONY DINERO

Pittsburgh Pirates-137

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- The Pittsburgh Pirates have won nine of their past 11 games and now find themselves a season-best four games above .500 and six games out of first place. Maybe more importantly for the moment, they are only two games out of the final wild-card spot. Las Vegas has taken notice of the Bucs righting the ship and have dropped their World Series odds to win from 40-to-1 down to 30-to-1 in recent days.

The addition of rookie Gregory Polanco has certainly helped, but the biggest reason for Pittsburgh's recent resurgence has been pitching. The Pirates have been getting it in all areas and have posted a 2.25 ERA while winning five of their first six games on their current 10-game homestand. It also helps that they have played a few of the worst teams in baseball. They took four of six on their last road trip against the Cubs and Rays before their current homestand against the Mets and Diamondbacks.

Arizona (35-51) has the worst record in baseball, and with a win tonight the Pirates can complete their first sweep of the Dbacks since 2010. Based on the way Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy (2-10, 5.11 ERA) has pitched this season, the Bucs' chances look pretty good at getting the job done. In 17 McCarthy starts, Arizona has lost 14 times with all three of the wins coming against the Padres. His -12.7 units of profit for bettors this season is the worst in baseball.

Pittsburgh's Vance Worley has made the most of his opportunity since being called up from the minors. He's won his last two starts and has allowed only four runs total while pitching into the seventh inning of all three starts. He should continue his solid run against an Arizona squad that has scored only 10 runs in its past six games, all of which have stayed UNDER the total. The stellar pitching by Pittsburgh has kept six of its last seven games UNDER the total as well.

Expect those trends to continue tonight. Let's go with Pittsburgh and the UNDER.

Thursday picks:

Pirates (Worley) -137 vs Diamondbacks

Pirates/Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 (-105)

Dodgers (Zack Greinke) -131 at Rockies

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ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)
2-Unit Play. Take #904 Miami (-115) over Philadelphia (6 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
2-Unit Play. Take #907 L.A. Dodgers (-135) over Colorado (8 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #907 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, +120) over Colorado (8 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #913 N.Y. Yankees (-150) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #902 San Francisco (-140) over St. Louis (3:45 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
Today’s Totals
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 6.5 (+100) St. Louis at San Francisco (3:45 p.m., Thursday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Philadelphia at Miami (6 p.m., Thursday, July 3)

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

#901: Cardinals: +130 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Martinez / Bumgarner

#905/906: Under Pirates: 7.5 (+105) (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: McCarthy / Worley

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SIMON GREEN

Free Play

5* Toronto/Oakland Over 7.5

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Colorado Rockies +125 over the Los Angeles Dodgers (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:10 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8* Texas -114
8* Oakland -151

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Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 10-0 since May 20, 2005 as a road favorite after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When RA Dickey starts the Blue Jays are 0-10 on the road after giving up 6 or fewer hits in a game where they did not win by 3+ runs for a net profit of $1019 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Dodgers are 22-4 since June 27, 2013 as a 130+ favorite it is the first game of the series. 8-4 this season.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Phillies are 0-9 since August 28, 2005 on the road after being shutout and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Max Scherzer starts the Tigers are 20-1 since June 15, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed on the road for a net profit of $1855.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Arizona DBacks

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Texas @ BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE +105 over Texas

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

The Rangers' injury plagued and brutal season continues. Texas has two wins over their last 14 games. Over that span they’ve scored two runs or less in eight games. They’ve been outscored in the first three games of this series by a count of 21-8 and even with Yu Darvish going they are too big a risk as the chalk. Darvish continues to put up elite strikeout numbers but there are some warts in his profile that do not play well at this park against the Orioles. His periodic control problems and extreme fly-ball tilt give him more risk than most aces. Furthermore, Darvish’s strikeouts dip and walks rise the deeper he goes into games and especially the third time through the order. Darvish has walked 16 over his last 35 innings and his strand rate of 82% has gotten him off the hook a few times. No question that Darvish is able to escape jams because of his high strikeout rate but with a 43% fly-ball rate, (34% groundball rate) don’t be surprised to see the O’s take him yard once or twice. Hopefully there will be men on when someone connects. Darvish has a 1.37 WHIP over his last five starts, which is another red flag that suggests fatigue.

We’re not even going to get into the Orioles starter here because this wager has nothing to do with him. This bet is against the Texas Rangers as a road favorite. They’re a reeling and banged up team that is counting down the days until the All-Star break and that is showing up at the park expecting to lose.


Arizona @ PITTSBURGH

Arizona +130 over PITTSBURGH

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Vance Worley was fantastic in his rookie season of 2011, where he was 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, yet he found himself beginning 2014 in AAA-Indianapolis trying to earn his way back to the big leagues. In seven starts with AAA-Indianapolis, he was 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 43/4 K/BB in 46 IP. Last year, Worley went 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 49 IP for Minnesota. 2011's success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but don't explain the 2013 debacle. See that 2011/2012 strikeout rate spike of 226 K’s in 265 innings? Worley’s swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His swing and miss rate of 5% this year, combined with average skills and numbers in the minors strongly suggest his 1.74 ERA after three starts since his call-up isn’t going to last either. Why didn’t Worley make the team out of spring training this past April? A 13.50 ERA will do that.

Brandon McCarthy is a true enigma. His 5.11 ERA after 17 starts makes no sense whatsoever. McCarthy’s skills are outstanding and this is exactly the type of park that he figures to excel in. McCarthy’s 65% strand rate and unlucky 20% HR/F combine to make him one of baseball’s unluckiest pitchers. We like that McCarthy is coming off a strong seven-inning start in San Diego in which he allowed just one run. That’s good for his confidence. His skills say he should be winning a lot more games. McCarthy has outstanding control (18 walks in 108 innings) to go along with an elite 56% groundball rate. McCarthy also has a decent strikeout rate and his xERA of 3.18 tells the real story of a pitcher with great skills. Over time, things even out for pitchers and in the first half every bounce went against McCarthy. However, one win often leads to two and with these skills and just two victories in 17 starts, McCarthy is a prime buy-low target that is worth investing in.


N.Y. Yankees @ MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA +138 over N.Y. Yankees

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)

Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees best asset that needs no introductions, as he’s been better than anyone could have expected. However, in order to win you need run support and the Yankees offense is very capable of putting up a goose egg every game. New York has lost five straight and has two wins over its last 11 games. It would be two wins in 12 games had Carlos Beltran not hit a three-run, walk off homer against the O’s on June 20. The Yanks best hitters are Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at .288. Five regulars are hitting .225 or less and another is hitting .237. In other words, most Yankees are hitting below their weight and slightly above their age. This is a terrible, aging team that is only going to get worse, as those hot and humid summer nights begin to pile up and take its toll. We’re seeing signs of that already and even with Tanaka going the Yanks are a huge risk, especially against a quality pitcher like Phil Hughes.

Phil Hughes will take on his former team for the second time this season. He first faced them on June 1, throwing a true gem, where he earned the win, allowing two ER over eight innings. Nine of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, over which time he has an unbelievable 68/4 K/BB. Over his last five starts covering 34 innings, Hughes has a K/BB split of 2/32. His swinging strike rate is trending up and is now at 11% for the year and 17% over his last two starts. Hughes comes into this start with a 3.53 ERA over 16 starts and a 4.75 ERA at home over eight starts. Pay no attention to Hughes’ home ERA, as it’s been wrecked by a very unlucky 64% strand rate. His road ERA has also been hurt by an unlucky strand rate and when that normalizes, Hughes’ ERA will drop even lower. Hughes’ xERA of 3.09 over his last 13 starts in which the Twinkies have won 10 of them is a more accurate barometer of just how well he's pitching and you can be damn sure that he’ll be a little extra jacked up here to stick it to his old team. If you’re playing value, the Twins are a must play here.

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Dave Aquino

Scratch Pad ..... MLB: (Pittsburgh), LA Angels, Jays/Athletics Over 8.... WNBA: (Stars/Lynx Under 157), Sparks/Storm Under 148


Today's Selections


MLB: Pittsburgh


WNBA: Stars/Lynx Under 157

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Gilmo

• [1905] Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates 1st 5' Over 4 (+100)

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Harry Bondi

MLB

Free Play Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) over Arizona Diamondbacks

We have made a fortune going against Brandon McCarthy Arizona this season. His 2-10 record has cost bettors who have backed him more than any other starting pitcher in baseball this season. Tonight he goes against the red hot Pirates who have won 9 of their last 11 and we expect more of the same from the bankroll busting McCarthy.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Bet From Marco D’Angelo

Toronto Blue Jays over The Oakland A’s

Bad scheduling spot for the A’s as they are off the long road trip. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound and he was beat up a bit by Miami in his last outing.

Toronto counters with RA Dickey, who has an ERA of 4.42 in his last 3 starts, but he still has allowed 3 ERs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Toronto is 20-12 in Dickey’s last 32 starts as a dog.

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BILL O’BRIEN

Miami ML
Pittsburgh ML.
Baltimore ML
Yankees ML
Texas/Baltimore – Over 7.5
Dodgers/Colorado – Over 10.5

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Ness

Perfect Storm - Yankees

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Las Vegas Pipeline

15* LAD

10* Blue Bombers

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VEGAS RUNNER

RLcrew Late Steam Move

913) New York Yankees -140

1913) New York Yankees -150 (1st 5 Innings)

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DHayes2

1* Minnesota Twins RL+1.5 -135

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Scott Spreitzer

NYY Under 7

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BLACKSHEEP ‏

Medium Margin Moves

Over 4 – phi vs mia (1st 5innings)

Over 3 1/2 – tex vs bal (1st 5innings)

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#908 Colorado Rockies +125 (1st 5 Innings)

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Sheep

Texas Rangers 1ST 5 innings

Under 7.5 Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 4 Tampa Bay Rays/Detroit Tigers 1ST 5 innings

Over 4 Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics 1ST 5 innings

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VEGAS RUNNER

MLB True Steam Lean

OVER 4 – TEX/BAL (1st 5 Innings)

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Italian King

905 Under 7.5 Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates

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Gilmo

[914] Under 7 (-125) New York Yankees/Minnesota Twins *s*

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OC Dooley

2 Unit Colorado Rockies +130

On paper this game is a mismatch as Los Angeles goes with their #2 starting pitcher up against a Colorado hurler whose last start came way back in the month of May. Despite the Rockies spending the better part of a month losing on a nightly basis the money-line for this contest has actually DROPPED substantially from the opening offshore figure which saw the Dodgers as a much steeper road favorite (-160). To make a long story short due to injuries Franklin Morales (last start 5/31) is being given a second shot at as a member of a Colorado rotation that desperately needs a veteran arm to stop the bleeding. The entire Rockies roster has special MOTIVATION as the last time they faced the Dodgers (6/18) resulted in Clayton Kershaw tossing a no-hitter which essentially was a “perfect game”. Most reading this analysis are aware that the THIN AIR and high altitude of Denver has adverse effects on visiting pitchers. Despite his excellent statistics Zack Greinke has actually struggled at Colorado allowing a hefty 12 earned runs in the most recent 17.1 innings tossed at Coors Field. It was a stunning National TV verdict last night as the Cubs ended up sweeping a series at Boston in front of the ESPN cameras. As of this typing a Thursday late afternoon MLB Network national telecast saw heavy underdog St. Louis leading early by a 5-1 count in San Francisco and I feel we could be looking at another upset on the same network this evening

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The Shadow Sports Syndicate

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers