7-5-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEWSLETTER Soccer Prediction From Robert Ferringo

Take ‘Under’ 2.5 – Belgium vs. Argentina (Noon, Saturday, July 5)

This total really jumped out at me when I saw the numbers released for the quarterfinals. Particularly because the juice on the ‘under,’ which was sitting at -145, was so steep. I think that the public is going to jump on the ‘over’ in this match. Belgium could’ve scored four or five goals against the United States on Tuesday. But they ran into an all-time great performance from goalie Tim Howard and were held to just two in 120 minutes. Bettors saw that and would expect the Belgians to have an easier time against a soft Argentinian defense (and no Howard). Also, Argentina has one of the strongest attacks in the field and one of the best players on earth in Messi. But after one of the highest scoring World Cups ever, I think that things are starting to even out and we’re seeing more and more games stay ‘under’ the total. And even though the public will assuredly bet this one ‘over,’ the books are defending against ‘under’ betting. The Belgian defense is immensely talented and underappreciated. Howard got all the focus in the U.S. game. But no one noticed that the Belgians smothered the U.S. attack. They’ve only allowed two goals in four matches and have been outstanding. Argentina gave up two goals to Nigeria in a meaningless third match in group play. But beyond that they have only been beaten one other time in three fixtures. This might be a spot to just hold your nose and bet against some of the most talented offensive players in the sport. Bank on the stellar defenses to continue. This is the fourth and final quarterfinal, and knowing that only three other teams remain alive could have a mental impact on these teams, who will be playing to avoid mistakes. Take the ‘UNDER’.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup 2014 quarterfinal betting: Argentina vs. Belgium
By Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) SPORTS

Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) Sports has everything you need to wager on World Cup 2014. Find odds and info on all the exciting soccer action in Brazil.

The 2014 World Cup is now at the knockout stage, read this quarterfinals betting preview before placing your bets.

Four European, three South American and one Central American nation make up the last eight of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. All eight nations are undefeated, all eight nations finished top of their respective groups, and all eight nations will expect to progress through to the semifinals.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/Resources/uploadedimages/Pinnacle_Sports/Sportsbook/Betting_Articles/2014/06-2014/World_Cup_KO/world-cup-knockout-stage-arg-bel.jpg


Argentina earned their place in the Quarter-finals by defeating Switzerland 1-0 on Tuesday evening. The Argentinians may have been unconvincing, but maintained momentum with their fourth successive victory in the tournament thanks to Ã�ngel di MarÃ*a’s extra-time winner. They had 64% possession and 17 shots on goal but failed to break down a Swiss defense until 118 minutes of play had passed.

Belgium also needed extra time to beat an inspired USA team 2-1, as the Stars and Stripes keeper made the most saves in World Cup history. This is the first time Belgium have reached the Quarter-finals for 28 years and they have certainly been made to earn their place in the final eight, with narrow victories in all four of their matches.

Argentina are the favorites on the 1X2 at Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) Sports, with odds currently offered at 2.120 – an implied probability of 47.17%. Belgium are the underdogs at 3.920, a 25.51% probability of victory.

Interestingly, Argentina have covered 0% of the spread so far in this tournament, whilst Belgium have covered on 50% of occasions. Bettors can get odds of 2.120 for Argentina on a -0.5 handicap, and odds of 1.833 on Belgium +0.5. Both sides drew 0-0 after 90 minutes of play in their Round of 16 ties, and odds of 1.877 are available for under 2 and 2.5 goals.

With just eight nations remaining, the World Cup Winner market is heating up too. Argentina are the second favorites with Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) Sports at 5.030 to lift the trophy on July 13th, while Belgium are available at 11.230.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup Game of the Day: Argentina vs. Belgium
By COVERS

Argentina vs. Belgium (+120, +275, Draw +230)

Belgium's plan for beating Argentina and advancing to the semifinals of the World Cup should be a simple one: contain Lionel Messi. The Belgians will have their hands full with one of the best players on the planet as they take on Argentina on Saturday afternoon at Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. Messi scored four goals in group play and set up Angel di Maria's extra-time winner in Argentina's round-of-16 triumph.

The Belgians also needed extra time to advance to the quarterfinals, firing everything they had at American goaltender Tim Howard before finally putting two past him in a narrow win over the U.S. While Messi will provide a major challenge for the Belgium defense, the Eurpoean side will benefit offensively from the suspension of Argentina starting back Marcus Rojo. Belgium has beaten Argentina just once in four meetings.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ABC

WORLD RANKINGS: Argentina: No. 5; Belgium: No. 11.

INJURY REPORT: Argentina: D Marcos Rojo is suspended for the match after picking up a second yellow against Switzerland; F Sergio Aguero resumed training after suffering a thigh injury in the group stage against Nigeria, but isn't expected to start. Belgium: D Thomas Vermaelen suffered a knee injury late against the United States but will likely play; MF Mousa Dembele is doubtful with an injured thigh.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Argentina have looked very lackluster ahead of the quarter final tie with Belgium, despite the fact that they've arguable had the easiest road to the Quarter Finals, Belgium must not be underestimated here, The Red Devils Expect a close game." - Covers Experts Footy Tipster

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I would have to say that Belgium is one of the surprise teams in this quarter final as we opened them at 500-1 way back when we first opened our World Cup odds to win. They face the always tough Argentinians in the first game of the day. Most of our players expect this match to end in a tie after 90mins of regulation with 42% of the action, while 31% of the action is on Belgium to win in regulation. The action on the 2.5 goal total has been mostly on the under with 84% of the action." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

ABOUT ARGENTINA: Teams traditionally don't favor running their entire offense through one player - but then, most teams don't employ someone as creative and electrifying as Messi. "We know he is our main player, our captain, the best player in the world," said teammate Pablo Zabaleta. "Every time we recover the ball we try to pass to him as he is the best player we have ... he will score goals." Jose Basanta is expected to assume Rojo's spot in the starting lineup.

ABOUT BELGIUM: Vermaelen may be back in the fold, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll be in the starting lineup. Belgian coach Marc Wilmots was impressed by the play of tandem Jan Vertonghen and Daniel Van Buyten against the American side in the second stage opener, and may opt to pair them one more time against Argentina. Vertonghen, in particular, was impressive in the round-of-16 triumph, challenging American attacks repeatedly while playing the entire match.

TRENDS:

* Argentina has won just six of its last 19 World cup games against European foes.
* All six Belgium goals in the tournament have been scored from the 70th minute on.
* Argentina leads the tournament with a 64.3-percent possession rate.
* Belgium and Argentina lead the World Cup in shots at 83 and 80, respectively.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 175 betting: Weidman must be wary of Machida's KO magic
By MMAODDSBREAKER

The main event of UFC 175 is a five-round title fight between UFC middleweight champion Chris “All-American” Weidman and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida.

The current betting line for the fight lists Weidman as a -185 favorite while Machida is a +160 underdog. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Weidman at -150 and Machida at +110, meaning the action is on the favorite, Weidman, to retain his title.

Weidman (11-0) is the current UFC middleweight champion. At 30 years of age, he’s really carved out a nice career for himself, going 7-0 in the UFC with two wins over Anderson Silva to cement his place as the top 185-pounder on the planet.

With a mix of high-level wrestling, slick submissions and power in his strikes, Weidman is a dangerous matchup for anyone in the division and, after beating Silva twice, is no doubt the top guy in his weight class.

He was originally set to fight Vitor Belfort, but after Belfort couldn’t use TRT he was pulled from the bout and replaced by Machida, who presents a very intriguing matchup for the champ. Although Weidman will have a wrestling advantage like he always does, Machida is great at defending takedowns and it’s likely he won’t clown around as much as Silva did in their fights when the fight stays standing.

Machida (21-4) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion. The 36 year old is 2-0 since dropping down to 185 pounds with huge wins over Gegard Mousasi and Mark Munoz that earned him his shot at the title. Overall, he is 13-4 in the UFC and when it’s all said and done, he will likely be placed in the UFC Hall of Fame.

Known for his deadly striking, Machida has knockout power in his hands and feet and his elusive karate style makes him a hard guy for anyone to deal with. He also has very good wrestling - underrated actually - and he uses his defensive wrestling to keep fights standing and out-strike his opponents on the feet en route to victories.

If there’s any flaw in Machida’s game, it’s that his style tends to leave him open to controversies on the judges’ scorecards and if the fight with Weidman goes the full five, that could happen once again. But it’s more likely someone gets finished, and since Weidman is undefeated so far, it makes sense Machida is the underdog, although of course he can never be counted out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Weekday Series - Five Key Takeaways
By DAVID MALINSKY

It is once again time to round the bases from Point Blank range, focusing on those key issues from the MLB mid-week series that can lead to major profits in the games ahead.

Royals – James Shields, and the toll of innings

The next time Shields takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 8-4/3.93. That will not cause many second takes; if anything it would appear to be “business as usual” for a consistent veteran that has worked to a 108-87/3.80 over 269 MLB starts. But it might be time to start taking a closer look – the bells of pitching age may be beginning to toll.

Shields turned in a solid 13-9/3.15 in his first season with the Royals LY, a strong enough bottom line for there to not be major concerns over his K-per-9 falling from 8.8 in 2012 to 7.7, and his BB-per-9 being the highest since his rookie season. He brought a reputation as a guy that could eat innings at a quality rate, and that is what he did. But over time, has he eaten too many innings?

2013 marked his seventh straight campaign of 200 IP or more, and when post-season games are added, only Justin Verlander worked more over that span. But Shields does not have Verlander’s stuff, which means that he has had to work harder to get through those frames, and while there were some signs of decline creeping in LY, they are becoming even more apparent now. But not necessarily apparent to the betting markets – he has been favored in 15 of his 18 starts, nine times by -135 or more.

First, ignore the W/L tally – in the six games in which he did not get a decision he was knocked around to a 6.28 tune, but bailed out by the Kansas City offense. That was most fortunate – the Royals have backed him with 5.1 RPG, despite averaging only 3.9 in all other games. His K-per-9 has taken another significant drop, down to 7.1, but while his BB rate has been terrific, he is giving up a lot of hard contact. Over the past six starts it has been particularly ominous – 50 hits vs. only 23 K. In those six games his PPI reached 18.0 on four occasions, something that only happened eight times in all of 2013.

Shields is not going to fall off the table – he is too savvy for that, and being in a pennant race will have some of those competitive juices flowing again. But the issue of decline is genuine, especially now that he is not pitching all of his home games in air conditioning. He is not the pitcher that the markets are pricing him to be, and there will be opportunities for the savvy handicapper to take advantage.

Blue Jays – Mark Buehrle, and those recent bombs

Buehrle could actually snicker at the Shields workload – he has topped 200 IP in 13 consecutive seasons, and seemingly shows no sign of aging, with his 10-5/2.50 for the first half of 2014 having him on pace to have his best season ever. Don’t bet on it.

The crafty left-hander has set a terrific ERA pace, and understand the extreme via a little context – that is a full run below any season he has had since 2005. Yet there is nothing all that different about his “stuff” – K-per-9 is at 5.2, which is his career mark; 2.3 BB-per-9 would actually be the highest since 2003, though not far off of his career tally; and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate is not far off of his 45.4, though actually trending the wrong way. So how do the same basic pitches lead to such better results? There is one key category that got him off to the great start, and it turned in recent starts that is worth a closer look.

Buehrle has allowed at least 20 HR in 12 of his 13 seasons as a full-time starter, and dealt 17 in the only time he came up below that plateau. But somehow he got through his first 12 starts this season allowing only two, despite the fact that his fly-ball rate had gone up. Now things are beginning to even up, with six HR over the last five starts. But it is who hit them that may really tell the tale for what we can expect going forward.

How about this group – Derek Jeter (one HR in his other 298 at-bats); Brian Roberts (hitting .245, with three HR in his other 244); Brian McCann (hitting .224, with eight HR in his other 271); Moises Sierra (hitting .206, with one HR in his other 106); and Randal Grichuk (back in the minors after hitting .136 in 44 at-bats, with that lone dinger). That is not a very powerful cast, and Buehrle may be a short-odds favorite to be the answer to the trivia question of “Which Pitcher Gave up Jeter’s Final HR?”. It also means that it is might just a matter of time until the better hitters also find the seats, especially in the AL East ballparks.

Buehrle’s HR/FB rate of 6.4 percent would be the second best of his career, and on only one other occasion was it below 8.0. There could be a lot of correction in that category ahead, and he just does not have the stuff to work around it – his LD% of 23.1 matches his career-high from back in 2003. He has been giving up as much contact, at as hard of a rate, as in the past, it has just converted into HR’s at a lower rate. Hence an FIP of 3.67, and xFIP of 4.16, which are much better indicators for where his 2014 is heading than that current ERA. But like Shields, his past reputation will carry a lot of weight even through a decline – he has been favored in 12 of 16 starts, and with the Blue Jays in first place in the AL East those prices will stay high.

Dodgers – Understanding Dan Haren, circa 2014

It is a case of being a little late to the party on this one, after Haren’s sparkling outing vs. the Indians on Monday night. But it really took time to come to terms with his transformation, preferring caution and patience as the season progressed to a knee-jerk reaction. The numbers are still not easy to believe, and when you see them under the microscope you will understand why.

Haren appeared to be on the downside of his career entering 2014, off of back-to-back registers of 12-13/4.33 and 10-14/4.67. The Dodger uniform was his fifth since 2007, which is rarely a good sign. He was 33 when the 2013 season ended, but looked older than that in “pitchers years”, having thrown at least 217 IP from 2005-2011, which can certainly age someone that relies on power. And in both 2012 and 2013, he set new career highs for HR/FB ratio.

With that in mind, Haren’s numbers in some key categories through the mid-point of 2014 would ordinarily scare you to wit’s end. His 6.0 K-per-9 is by far a career low, well off of his 7.6 average, and trending worse – in 10 of his L11 starts it has been five or fewer. His HR-per-9 has increased again, to 14.4 percent, and of the 132 pitchers with at least 60 IP, that puts him at #118. His swinging strike percentage is an almost shocking 6.5 (#118!), off of a career 9.4. If he was already in decline, and those numbers are factored in, this season would be a mini-disaster, right? Based on the peripherals alone, you might even project him to have already been on the waiver wire.

But that would be Wrong. Haren is sitting on an 8-4/3.57, and he has done it via something that was visible early, but not trustworthy – he is getting ground-balls. His 47.4 percent rate is by far a career high, and it jumps off the page compared to the 39.6 and 36.0 of the previous two seasons. It was a transition that was difficult to believe through his early starts, since it was so far off of his norm, but then he put it into perspective himself, and one had to take heed - "I'm trying to do what I did in the second half of last year, to focus on location and not focus on how hard I'm throwing. Really I'm just trying to focus on keeping the ball down."

So should anyone feel bad for missing that “second half of last year” change? In truth, it was not an easy read. He was indeed a better pitcher overall after coming off of the DL, but a 34.9 percent ground-ball rate in the first half of 2013 only elevated to 37.9 the rest of the way. There just was not enough there for even the smallest of bells to chime. But his own words, and the recent results, show that he had made a conscious change, and while all of those MLB innings can take something out of an arm, they also represent the opportunity to gain a lot of savvy. Haren seems to have done just that. The brilliant outing vs. Cleveland on Monday is not likely to be repeated, but for now the lower K counts and velocity can be mitigated – at over 100 IP in 2014, there have been enough ground-balls to be accepted as the new norm. Of course, what happens after Haren leaves games is another matter entirely…

Dodgers – But after those starters leave…

Isn’t it nice to have the #5 guy in your rotation working at an 8-4/3.57 clip? Over the first half of the 2014 season there has been an individual take in this space on every one of the Dodger starters, now that Haren makes concrete sense, every one of them dealing with a positive issue. As a group they check in at 43-23/3.00, the allowance a quarter of a run less than any other team, and nearly a full run better than the rest of the league. It is why they draw so much money in the Futures markets – a Kershaw-Greinke-Ryu trio in October can be dynamite, and Josh Beckett is as good as any current #4. Haren would likely be reduced to long relief, something that the team rarely has a need for.

But you will already notice that there is something that they do need, given that those special numbers from the starters only has them 10 games over .500. It is in the latter stages where things have not worked out, and when you are as close as they are to being an October factor, it could mean some activity as the trading deadline approaches. The Los Angeles bullpen is 6-16/3.73. Only the Mets have more losses, and as a group the Dodgers are #27 in BB-per-9.

Closer Kenley Jansen has been fine. While he is 0-3 in decisions, he has converted 26 of 29 saves, taking his career mark to 88 of 105. That 3.79 ERA may jump off the page, after his 1.88 of 2013, but you can comfortably ignore that – his xFIP is at 1.84, a career best. He has far more K (57) than Hits + BB (45), and that is with the hit count inflated by a BABIP of .388, more than 100 points above his career average in the category. His ERA will gradually drop. It is the group that needs to patch between the starters and Jansen that is struggling.

Brian Wilson came into the season as a wild card, and in going 1-3/5.52 he has found the strike zone elusive, to a danger zone of 6.8 BB-per-9. Like Wilson, Chris Perez was a former closer with another team, and a wild card. He has not fared much better, an 0-3/4.85, at a 4.3 BB-per-9 that would be his highest since 2009. Jamey Wright and Brandon League have been decent, but neither sports the K ratios needed for high- leverage situations in the 8th inning of a close game, and while J. P. Howell is effective in his particular role, the Left/Right gap will always be there.

It is rare that teams go after set-up men at trade time. But midway through the season Don Mattingly still does not have an “automatic” option for the 8th inning of a close game, and there should not be all that much confidence that someone from the current cast is going to step up and lock it down.

Diamondbacks – Aaron Hill “better walk (before they make him run)”

Any time a Keith Richards reference can be thrown in you should seize the opportunity. But as the trading deadline approaches and Hill’s name gets mentioned often, with several contenders needing help at 2B, there is an issue that the decision makers have to deal with – what happened to his batting eye at the plate? And for those of us having to generate a rating each day, it is an issue regardless of which uniform he is wearing over the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks have certainly been a disappointment through the first half, and Hill has been a prime reason why.

Hill seemed to have found a second-life in the desert, turning in that terrific .302/.360/.522 of 2012, with 26 HR, and while injuries shortened his 2013 campaign, it was still a solid .291/.356/.462. This season has been much different, entering the 4th of July at .248/.285/.368, actually posting a negative value in WAR. You do not have to look much further than plate discipline to see why.

In the 4th inning of a 2-1 loss to the Padres last Sunday, Hill drew a BB from Odrisamer Despaigne, who was making only his second MLB start. They did not stop the game to give him Hill the baseball, but it was almost to that point – it was his first free pass after 120 PA’s, dating all the way back to May 25 against Jose Valverde, who was appearing in what was likely his next-to-last MLB game at the time. And since taking that trot down the first base line, Hill has followed up with 15 more trips to the plate without a free pass. That is an ominous stretch for a competent MLB hitter.

Here are the bottom lines – a 4.5 BB% that is by far a career low, and 32.8 percent below his career rate. And a 17.5 K% that is not only a career high, but a full 23.5 percent above his career norm. Those numbers are alarming when there are now 337 PA’s into a season, and especially when they are getting worse, instead of better - since the end of May Hill has contributed a .236/.243/.300 line. Over a span in which he has drawn one BB, he has struck out 19 times.

There have been many instances in this column where the focus was on a performer that seemed to be underachieving in the box scores, but was actually playing well and merely suffering from some of Baseball’s idiosyncracies. Hill is not one of them – he has lost his patience and is pressing badly at the plate, and until that changes the downward spiral will not end. Opposing pitchers are adjusting accordingly, and so should shrewd handicappers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider

Belgium vs. Argentina

The second pair of quarterfinals take place on Saturday, and two more excellent matches are anticipates. Argentina are the favourites to qualify for the final from this half of the draw, but can someone else cause a surprise?

First up Argentina face Belgium in Brasilia. Both teams put in unconvincing performances in their last 16 matches, before coming through after extra time. That half an hour of football will have had an effect on both teams, and the temperature in Brasilia, while nothing on what we have seen in the far north of the country, will be high. It could lead to a rather slow, patient game with few goals.

Argentina were dreadful for much of their game against Switzerland. There was no cohesion to the team, and the Swiss could well have nicked it. Angel Di Maria scored the 118th minute winner, but the Real Madrid man, having ended the season so well, has been completely off the pace at this World Cup, which has been a major source of Argentina’s problems. The squad does not have quite the depth in quality of some others, and so only one enforced change will be made: left-back Marcos Rojo is suspended, so left-footed centre-back José Maria Basanta looks set to fill in.

Belgium have somehow won all four games at this World Cup (admittedly against four fairly average opponents), but there has been little from their performances to suggest that they are capable of winning the World Cup. Having crashed from 500/1 in 2010 to going off at 13/1 to win the World Cup, there is a sense that Belgium have become overhyped. Nonetheless, they are still here and deserve credit.

Argentina are the 23/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, and this looks a price to be piled into. The vast numbers of Argentines pouring into Brazil will almost make the match a home game for Alejandro Sabella’s side. The importance of having the crowd behind you was emphasised hugely in Brazil’s win over Colombia. Like Brazil, Argentina seem to thrive under pressure and have a way of getting the job done when they’re not playing well. A draw is 11/5 with Belgium 27/10 to win inside 90 minutes. The ‘To Qualify’ market has Argentina at 5/9 and Belgium 157/100.

Bookies are expecting a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is 29/20 with the under option a 61/100 shot. In the first goalscorer market Lionel Messi leads the way at 14/5 and, for once, this may not be a bad price on him breaking the deadlock.

Top Bet: Argentina to win at 23/20

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands

The last quarterfinal, and the fifth last game of the whole World Cup, sees Netherlands play Costa Rica at the Fonte Nova in Salvador. Costa Rica are the surprise packages of the World Cup, but it is a 5/22 shot that their great journey will come to an end tonight against Holland, the only team left to have won all their games so far. Los Ticos played for over an hour against Greece with 10 men before winning on penalties.

The Dutch were five minutes from going out of the World Cup, before an extraordinary turnaround of goals in the 88th and 90th minutes put them through and sent Mexico home. The draw has opened out nicely for Louis van Gaal’s side - it’s not often you get to play a side as weak on paper as Costa Rica in a World Cup quarter-final.

Nigel De Jong is out of the World Cup with a groin strain, and so the impressive and versatile Daley Blind will step into defensive midfield, with Bruno Martins Indi playing on the left. Either that or Leroy Fer will come in as a straight swap. For Costa Rica, Oscar Duarte is suspended, and he will have to be wary of tiredness creeping into members of his squad after going the full distance against Greece.

I feel Costa Rica may have been unfairly written off here. While Arjen Robben is truly exceptional, this Dutch team looks pretty ordinary otherwise. Costa Rica managed to top the ‘group of death’, and the gritty win over Greece showed their mental strength. They have possibly the goalkeeper of the tournament in Keylor Navas, a defence that has conceded just twice in four matches, and a quick, dangerous forward in Joel Campbell. They are 6/1 to win in normal time and 7/2 to qualify. Holland are 1/2 to win, and a draw in 90 minutes is priced up at 63/20.

Holland have improved steadily throughout games, and Costa Rica will tire. As this happens, Robben’s influence will grow and, in the end, I expect the Oranje to get through. It may be worth getting on the half-time draw at 11/10. Both these sides played out exceptionally dull first halves in their last 16 ties, and Costa Rica have the ability to frustrate their opponents.

Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 11/10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB PicksTampa Bay at DetroitThe Rays look to follow up yesterday's 6-3 win in the series opener and come into today's contest with a 5-1 record in Chris Archer's last 6 starts as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


SATURDAY, JULY 5
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Heaney) 13.383; St. Louis (Miller) 15.658
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over


Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.546; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.446
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Under


Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington (4:05 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Villanueva) 15.016; Washington (Gonzalez) 17.994
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over


Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 14.832; Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.426
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under


Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 13.528; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.275
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 11
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Under


Game 911-912 Arizona at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Bolsinger) 14.126; Atlanta (Harang) 15.805
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over


Game 913-914: San Francisco at San Diego (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 16.719: San Diego (Despaigne) 15.724
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over


Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.200; Minnesota (Pino) 15.194
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under


Game 917-918: Seattle at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.528; White Sox (Quintana) 14.316
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over


Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Detroit (4:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.715; Detroit (Sanchez) 15.933
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Under


Game 921-922: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.086; Cleveland (House) 15.009
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under


Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 14.299; Boston (Lackey) 17.265
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over


Game 925-926: Toronto at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 17.155; Oakland (Kazmir) 16.075
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under


Game 927-928: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 14.425; LA Angels (Santiago) 16.094
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Over


Game 929-930: Texas at NY Mets (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.185; NY Mets (Colon) 15.583
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Over


Game 931-932: Baltimore at Boston (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.152; Boston (Lester) 14.221
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball PicksSan Antonio at IndianaThe Stars head to Indiana today and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 road games. San Antonio is the pick (.+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.



SATURDAY, JULY 5
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: San Antonio at Indiana (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.190; Indiana 110.244
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Under


Game 653-654: Washington at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.346; Atlanta 115.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9); Over


Game 655-656: Connecticut at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.527; Tulsa 115.612
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 6; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 4; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4); Over


Game 657-658: Chicago at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.404; Seattle 111.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL PicksSaskatchewan at TorontoThe Argonauts play host to Saskatchewan today and come into the contest with a 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 Saturday games. Toronto is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.



SATURDAY, JULY 5
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (7/3)


Game 327-328: Saskatchewan at Toronto (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 113.983; Toronto 118.901
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Argentina, Belgium collide in Saturday quarterfinals
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

ARGENTINA vs. BELGIUM

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Estadio Nacional de Brasilia – Brasilia, Brazil

Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986. Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss. The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play. However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders. Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 175 Preview


Event: UFC 175
Date: July 5, 2014
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
City: Las Vegas, Nevada

Middleweight Title Bout: Chris Weidman (11-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4)

Line: Weidman -185, Machida +150

Undefeated Chris Weidman looks to retain his middleweight championship as he goes up against Lyoto Machida at UFC 175 in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Weidman has never lost in the octagon, with his past two victories coming against one of the UFC’s best fighters of all time, Anderson Silva. However, there are some who still question how great Weidman truly is. Both of those fights ended early in the second round, with the last one ending with Silva breaking his leg while kicking Weidman. However, every time Weidman has entered the octagon, he has taken care of business. Besides the two wins against Silva, he also has victories against Mark Munoz and Demian Maia. However, he will be facing another very difficult matchup as he goes toe-to-toe with Lyoto Machida.

"The Dragon" Machida has gotten things back on track, winning his past two fights after a loss to Phil Davis. In his last victory against Gegard Mousasi on Feb. 15, he lost the significant striking advantage 36-28 and had to hang on to get the unanimous decision victory. The 36-year-old Machida has a ton of experience and has been in many big fights in his career, and this may be the last opportunity for him to get a chance at a belt.

Of his 11 career victories, Weidman has won by knockout in five of those matches. He also has three wins by both submission and decision, with five of his victories coming in the first round. The 30-year-old New York native has a ton of talent, and has the ability to win any kind of match. Weidman will have a big advantage when it comes to striking, landing 3.15 significant strikes per minute in his career, compared to just 2.64 for Machida. While he is not as accurate landing those strikes (55% for Machida, 42% for Weidman), he is extremely powerful with his punches.

Weidman also has a huge advantage when it comes to grappling, posting a takedown average of 4.0, compared to just 1.5 for Machida. Weidman was a two-time All-American wrestler at Hofstra University and defeated both Phil Davis and Ryan Bader in his college wrestling career. Saturday is the opportunity for the 6-foot-2 Weidman (one inch taller than Machida) to quiet his critics, however, it will not be easy against Machida.

"The Dragon" Machida has 21 victories in his career, with 11 of those wins coming by way of decision. His conditioning is terrific for the sport, where he has the cardio to go the entire fight with nearly anybody in the sport. However, the Brazilian has shown the ability to win any match, tallying eight knockout victories in his career, with another two coming by way of submission. The biggest advantage Machida has is the experience in the sport. Many times in UFC championship matches, the experience between the fighters heavily favors the champion. However, this is not the case in this match, as Machida has been in more big fights than Weidman in his career. At 36 years old, this may be Machida’s final opportunity to get the title. If he is able to take this fight into the championship rounds, then he has a real chance to seize the middleweight belt.


Women's Bantamweight Title Bout: Ronda Rousey (9-0) vs. Alexis Davis (16-5)

Line: Rousey -1400, Davis +750

Ronda Rousey looks to continue her MMA dominance as she defends her bantamweight title belt against Alexis Davis at UFC 175 on Saturday in Las Vegas.

For the first time in her career, Rousey is coming off a victory by way of something besides an armbar. In her last match against Sara McMann on Feb. 22, she won in the first round by way of knees to the body. Of her nine career fights -- all Rousey victories -- only a match against Miesha Tate at UFC 168 made it past the first round. Rousey has proven in her career to be too strong for her opponents, eventually taking them to the ground to get the armabr locked in. The one thing that concerns some people about Rousey is how much does she care about the sport. She has already said that she will be taking a long break after this match, so there could be some concerns on her focus for this match.

Her opponent, Alexis Davis is coming off a very difficult victory against Jessica Eye at UFC 170. She was able to get her fifth straight win, but by way of split decision. For Davis, she has an opportunity to become the first fighter to defeat Rousey, but it is going to take a big-time effort from Davis. She is a terrific athlete, who is as well of a conditioned athlete as there is in women’s UFC. However, she can’t afford to let the magnitude of this fight to get the best of her.

Of her nine career victories, eight of "Rowdy" Rousey’s wins have come by submission. All eight of those wins have come by way of armbar, with her only other victory being the knockout victory against Sara McMann in her last match. As the case is in any match Rousey is in, she will have a huge advantage in the grappling department. Rousey averages an astonishing 7.73 takedown average, compared to just 0.86 for Davis. Rousey is so strong that she simply overpowers her opponents and gets them to the ground. Any time she gets her opponent to the ground, she has a great chance of locking in the armbar. While the 27-year-old California native has not won a lot of matches by knockout, she has the powerful fists to win a fight in that fashion. If Rousey is focused and locked in on this fight, it will be difficult for Davis to get the win. However, in the UFC there is always a chance, and Davis must use her striking ability.

Davis has 16 wins in her career, with seven of those wins coming by both submission and decision, with her other two victories coming by knockout. She has prevailed in eight of her past nine bouts with the lone defeat coming by majority decision to Sarah Kaufman in what many regard as one of the best fights in the history of women's MMA. However, the Canadian-born Davis will have an advantage over her opponent in significant strikes per minute, averaging 4.97 compared to 3.13 for Rousey, and holds the slight striking defense edge (53% to 52%). She has a takedown defense rate of 57%, but she absolutely has to keep this fight on her feet. If the 5-foot-6 Davis is able to stand with the 5-foot-7 Rousey, then she has a chance to get the win. However, if she gets taken down to the mat, then her chances of winning may fall with her.

Ohter UFC 175 Bouts


Middleweight Matchup
Luke Zachrich +150
Guilherme Vasconcelos -185

Middleweight Matchup
Bubba Bush -185
Kevin Casey +150

Bantamweight Matchup
George Roop -230
Rob Font +185

Middleweight Matchup
Chris Camozzi -320
Bruno Santos +240

Welterweight Matchup
Ildemar Alcantara -150
Kenny Robertson +120

Bantamweight Matchup
Urijah Faber -1200
Alex Caceres +700

Bantamweight Matchup
Marcus Brimage -115
Russell Doane -115

Middleweight Matchup
Uriah Hall -400
Thiago Santos +300

Heavyweight Matchup
Stefan Struve -155
Matt Mitrione +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Friday and likes the Nationals on Saturday.

The deficit is 321 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CONNECTICUT at TULSA
Play On - Favorites (TULSA) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games 112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )

CONNECTICUT at TULSA
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road win 99-23 since 1997. ( 81.1% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

SAN ANTONIO at INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 in a game involving two average shooting teams (40.5-43.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Nationals-150
Twins+110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, July 5


Kazmir untouchable at home

Scott Kazmir has been on-fire for the Oakland Athletics on O-Town. Kazmir is 4-0 in his last four starts at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

Kazmir has onl given up four hits per game and less than one run per game, leading to four straight unders as well.


Lackey keeping Orioles bats at bay

John Lackey has helped bettors to a 1-5 over/under record in his last six starts against the Baltimore Orioles.

In those six starts Lackey has only given up 19 runs, which averages out to 3.2 per game.


Hernandez struggling at Cellular Field

Felix Hernandez has been unable to lift the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago White Sox as U.S. Cellular Field. The Mariners have gone 0-4 in the last four starts by 'King Felix' in Chicago.

Hernandez gives up almost seven hits per game and four runs per game during that stretch.


De La Rosa has been terrible against Dodgers

The Colorado Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound in hopes that he can change a terrible career against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies are 3-12 in De La Rosa's last 15 starts against the Dodgers.

Spanning the past 10 of those starts, De La Rosa has given up 40 runs, while giving up five or more five times.


Brandon Moss, Oakland - Ques Sat

Moss left Friday's game after twisting his left ankle and is questionable to play Saturday against the Blue Jays.


Smoak goes from Mariners' DL to Triple-A

First baseman Justin Smoak is off the Seattle Mariners' disabled list and headed to Triple-A.

The Mariners demoted him Friday after he missed almost a month of the season with a strained quadriceps. At the time of the injury, Smoak was struggling at the plate with a .208 average, seven homers and 29 RBIs in 63 games. He was batting only .191 in his last 56 games.

In four seasons with the Mariners, the 27-year-old has a .227 career batting average with 67 home runs and 204 RBIs.

The Mariners plan to continue to use Logan Morrison at first base and Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders in the outfield. Corey Hart will serve as the designated hitter.


Wright still out of Mets' lineup

New York Mets third baseman David Wright remained out of the lineup Friday against the Texas Rangers.

Wright has been out with a bruised rotator cuff in his left shoulder.

The club was hopeful that he would return Friday for the start of a 10-game homestand.

Wright missed the final six games of a 1-7 road trip and left the Mets (37-48) a season-worst 10 games out of first place in the National League East after being swept in a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves.

Wright was not with the team in Atlanta, instead receiving treatment in New York on his non-throwing shoulder that forced him out of the June 26 game at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Mets have avoided placing Wright on the 15-day disabled list while playing a man short for the past six games. Eric Campbell has been filling in for Wright at third base.

Wright had a 10-game hitting streak in which he was batting .385 with two home runs and seven RBIs despite dealing with discomfort in the shoulder for more than two weeks.

For the season, Wright is batting .277 with six homers and 41 RBIs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
It took 12 innings to cash a winner with Oakland yesterday, and we will come back on them today vs a injured Blue Jays line up. I've got four plays going on a busy Saturday...
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS TO WIN (-139)
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-109)
Listed Pitchers: Buehrle vs Kazmir
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.44 units)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.84 units)
Toronto has scored 1 run over their two games so far in Oakland, which has been 21 innings after last night's extra innings game. They've been dealing with some injuries, and although they might have Colby Rasmus back in the lineup they are facing another tough lefty in Scott Kazmir. Lind, Rasmus and Francisco all struggle vs lefties, but all will play or give way to a Triple-A player today. Kazmir is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA, .216 OBA and 1.03 WHIP. At home he is an even better 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA, .190 OBA and 0.77 WHIP. The Blue Jays have Mark Buehrle on the mound who is 10-5 with a 2.50 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. Take note that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Blue Jays last 6 games overall, 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog, and 16-6 in Buehrle's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the A's last 6 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and 5-2-1 in Kazmir's last 8 starts overall. The UNDER has hit in 6 straight meetings between these two teams. Take the UNDER and the As again tonight.
2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-128)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs Bailey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.56 units)
The Reds won the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 and are now 6-2 vs the Brewers this season. Today's starting pitchers have faced each other last month in Milwaukee and the Reds won that game 6-5. Bailey has faced Milwaukee twice this season, which were both wins by the Reds. Bailey is coming off a complete game shutout in his last outing as he held the Giants to just 3 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts. Bailey is 5-1 at home with a 4.03 ERA this year. In 6 June starts he was 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA, .224 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. Matt Garza is 5-5 on the year with a 4.10 ERA, .252 OBA and 1.28 WHIP, but he has struggled on the road with a 5.49 ERA, .265 BA and 1.49 WHIP. The Brewers are just 1-4 in Garza's last 5 road starts and just 1-5 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Reds are hot right now winning 9 of their last 13 games overall, going 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and they are 6-2 in Bailey's last 8 starts. I'm on the Reds at home this afternoon.
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (+107)
Listed Pitchers: Hudson vs Despaigne
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)
Odrisamer Despaigne from Cuba will make his third start of the season tonight for the Padres. So far, so good as he is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA, .200 OBA and 0.95 WHIP. He will face Tim Hudson who is 7-5 on the season with a 2.59 ERA, but has had his struggles lately. Over 6 June starts he was 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA, but opponents were hitting .293 against him for the month with a 1.45 WHIP. He has posted a 6.38 ERA over his last three starts. The Padres won the first game of this series last night by a score of 2-0. After such a great start to the season the Giants are now just 5-18 in their last 23 games overall. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 as a favorite, 0-8 in their last 8 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 0-6 in their last 6 vs right handed starters. The Padres have won 5 in a row, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. San Diego has won 6 of their last 8 meetings with San Fran at home. I'll take the Padres at plus money.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox - MARINERS TO WIN (-140)
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs. Quintana
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.43 units)
Pretty easy winner yesterday for a five winners in a row. Alfredo Simon was terrific and Kyle Lohse did just enough before imploding to keep the Reds in check. This matches my longest win streak of the season, so lets look to surpass that.
One guy that is certainly on a roll is Felix Hernandez. This is the kind of production we expect to get from Hernandez, so it isn't all that surprising, but he is playing some of the best baseball of his career right now. It is hard to argue, as Hernandez has been dazzling lately, pitching a 1.23 ERA with a staggering 0.59 WHIP and .167 OBP. He has an overall ERA of 2.10, 0.92 WHIP, and .244 OBP. It has been ten starts for him since he has allowed more than 2 runs. He has been earning his pay check and definitely locked in at the moment. Hernandez' ERA is even lower on the road with a 2.04. Jose Quintana has been hot as well lately, but note that all of those starts came on the road, a place where he is much better. At home, however, Quintana has an ERA of 4.25 compared to 3.01 on the road. In addition, his WHIP is not all that impressive, entering today with a 1.31. Quintana is going to need to be razor sharp against Hernandez, 3 runs against may be too many to overcome against the Mariners with him on the mound. I think the Mariners will be able to chalk up enough runs to give Hernandez a glorious opportunity to lock in a win to his credit. Ride the Hernandez train until the wheels fall off. I'll be on it today in Chicago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Washington -140 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)

Gio Gonzalez has won 17 of the last 20 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has won 43 of the last 60 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175.Gio Gonzalez has won 53 of the last 89 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.00.

================================================== ===



50* Play New York Yankees -110 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Seattle -130 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXCLUSIVE SPORTS

Kansas City vs Cleveland - Under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

Saul Alvarez -160 (4*) (Boxing)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Milwaukee +115 over Cincinnati (MLB TOP PLAY)

Milwaukee is 27-18 in road games this season
Milwaukee is 18-11 when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher
Milwaukee is 9-4 when playing on a Saturday


10* Play Colorado +110 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

Jorge De La Rosa is 17-5 when the line posted is between +125 to -125
Jorge De La Rosa is 11-3 in day games the last three seasons
Jorge De La Rosa is 11-4 when pitching with five or six days of rest

=============================================

5* Play Kansas City +100 over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Houston +130 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SATURDAY BASEBALL




Play Colorado +110 over Los Angeles Dodgers----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

4:00 PM EST

Dan Haren has lost 75 of the last 133 games vs. division opponents and he has lost 31 of the last 54 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher. Dan Haren has lost 22 of the last 39 road games and he has an ERA of 4.55 vs. Colorado over his career.





Play Kansas City +100 over Cleveland----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST


Jeremy Guthrie has won 24 of the last 35 games vs. division opponents and he has won 33 of the last 52 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jeremy Guthrie has won 28 of the last 43 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.14.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Reports: A's acquire Samardzija, Hammel from Cubs
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


The Oakland A's acquired starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs in a multi-player trade multiple media outlets reported Friday.

The Cubs will receive A's shortstop prospect and 2012 first-round draft pick Addison Russell as well as pitcher Dan Straily, outfielder Billy McKinney and player to be named.

The A's already have the best record in the major leagues, but they are acquiring more veteran pitchers.

They recently obtained pitcher Brad Mills from the Brewers for cash considerations. But the acquisition of Samardzija and Hammel give the A's two starters to plug into their rotation.

Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 earned-run average in 16 starts, while Samardzija is just 2-7 in 17 starts but he has a 2.83 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Saturday, July 5th July's Major League on FOX 3-Teamer of the Month!!!!!
San Francisco/San Diego under 6 1/2
Baltimore/Boston under 9
Texas/New York over 7 1/2

2-1 or Better or we'll email you Sunday's Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles/Colorado under 11
Seattle/Chicago under 7
Tampa Bay/Detroit under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY

***** Saturday, 7/5/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #14
It is once again time for StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman to round the bases from Point Blank range, focusing on those key issues from the Major League Baseball mid-week series that can lead to major profits in the games ahead.

•Royals – James Shields, And The Toll Of Innings
The next time Shields takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 8-4/3.93. That will not cause many second takes; if anything it would appear to be “business as usual” for a consistent veteran that has worked to a 108-87/3.80 over 269 Major League Baseball assignments. But it might be time to start taking a closer look – the bells of pitching age may be beginning to toll.

Shields turned in a solid 13-9/3.15 in his first season with the Royals last year, a strong enough bottom line for there to not be major concerns over his K-per-9 falling from 8.8 in 2012 to 7.7, and his BB-per-9 being the highest since his rookie season. He brought a reputation as a guy that could eat innings at a quality rate, and that is what he did. But over time, has he eaten too many innings?

2013 marked his seventh straight campaign of 200 IP or more, and when post-season games are added, only Justin Verlander worked more over that span. But Shields does not have Verlander’s stuff, which means that he has had to work harder to get through those frames, and while there were some signs of decline creeping in last season, they are becoming even more apparent now. But not necessarily apparent to the betting markets – he has been favored in 15 of his 18 starts, nine times by -135 or more.

First, ignore the W/L tally – in the six games in which he did not get a decision he was knocked around to a 6.28 tune, but bailed out by the Kansas City offense. That was most fortunate – the Royals have backed him with 5.1 RPG, despite averaging only 3.9 in all other games. His K-per-9 has taken another significant drop, down to 7.1, but while his BB rate has been terrific, he is giving up a lot of hard contact. Over the past six starts it has been particularly ominous – 50 hits vs. only 23 K. In those six games his PPI reached 18.0 on four occasions, something that only happened eight times in all of 2013.

Shields is not going to fall off the table – he is too savvy for that, and being in a pennant race will have some of those competitive juices flowing again. But the issue of decline is genuine, especially now that he is not pitching all of his home games in air conditioning. He is not the pitcher that the markets are pricing him to be, and there will be opportunities for the savvy handicapper to take advantage.

•Blue Jays – Mark Buehrle, And Those Recent Bombs
Buehrle could actually snicker at the Shields workload – he has topped 200 IP in 13 consecutive seasons, and seemingly shows no sign of aging, with his 10-5/2.50 for the first half of 2014 having him on pace to have his best season ever. Don’t bet on it.

The crafty left-hander has set a terrific ERA pace, and understand the extreme via a little context – that is a full run below any season he has had since 2005. Yet there is nothing all that different about his “stuff” – K-per-9 is at 5.2, which is his career mark; 2.3 BB-per-9 would actually be the highest since 2003, though not far off of his career tally; and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate is not far off of his 45.4, though actually trending the wrong way. So how do the same basic pitches lead to such better results? There is one key category that got him off to the great start, and it turned in recent starts that is worth a closer look.

Buehrle has allowed at least 20 HR in 12 of his 13 seasons as a full-time starter, and dealt 17 in the only time he came up below that plateau. But somehow he got through his first 12 starts this season allowing only two, despite the fact that his fly-ball rate had gone up. Now things are beginning to even up, with six HR over the last five starts. But it is who hit them that may really tell the tale for what we can expect going forward.

How about this group – Derek Jeter (one HR in his other 298 at-bats); Brian Roberts (hitting .245, with three HR in his other 244); Brian McCann (hitting .224, with eight HR in his other 271); Moises Sierra (hitting .206, with one HR in his other 106); and Randal Grichuk (back in the minors after hitting .136 in 44 at-bats, with that lone dinger). That is not a very powerful cast, and Buehrle may be a short-odds favorite to be the answer to the trivia question of “Which Pitcher Gave up Jeter’s Final HR?”. It also means that it might be just a matter of time until the better hitters also find the seats, especially in the AL East ballparks.

Buehrle’s HR/FB rate of 6.4 percent would be the second best of his career, and on only one other occasion was it below 8.0. There could be a lot of correction in that category ahead, and he just does not have the stuff to work around it – his LD% of 23.1 matches his career-high from back in 2003. He has been giving up as much contact, at as hard of a rate, as in the past, it has just converted into HR’s at a lower rate. Hence an FIP of 3.67, and xFIP of 4.16, which are much better indicators for where his 2014 is heading than that current ERA. But like Shields, his past reputation will carry a lot of weight even through a decline – he has been favored in 12 of 16 starts, and with the Blue Jays (hanging around) in first place in the AL East those prices will stay high.

•Dodgers – Understanding Dan Haren, Circa 2014
It is a case of being a little late to the party on this one, after Haren’s sparkling outing versus the Indians on Monday night. But it really took time to come to terms with his transformation, preferring caution and patience as the season progressed to a knee-jerk reaction. The numbers are still not easy to believe, and when you see them under the microscope you will understand why.

Haren appeared to be on the downside of his career entering 2014, off of back-to-back registers of 12-13/4.33 and 10-14/4.67. The Dodger uniform was his fifth since 2007, which is rarely a good sign. He was 33 when the 2013 season ended, but looked older than that in “pitchers years”, having thrown at least 217 IP from 2005-2011, which can certainly age someone that relies on power. And in both 2012 and 2013, he set new career highs for HR/FB ratio.

With that in mind, Haren’s numbers in some key categories through the mid-point of 2014 would ordinarily scare you to wit’s end. His 6.0 K-per-9 is by far a career low, well off of his 7.6 average, and trending worse – in 10 of his L11 starts it has been five or fewer. His HR-per-9 has increased again, to 14.4 percent, and of the 132 pitchers with at least 60 IP, that puts him at #118. His swinging strike percentage is an almost shocking 6.5 (#118!), off of a career 9.4. If he was already in decline, and those numbers are factored in, this season would be a mini-disaster, right? Based on the peripherals alone, you might even project him to have already been on the waiver wire.

But that would be Wrong. Haren is sitting on an 8-4/3.57, and he has done it via something that was visible early, but not trustworthy – he is getting ground-balls. His 47.4 percent rate is by far a career high, and it jumps off the page compared to the 39.6 and 36.0 of the previous two seasons. It was a transition that was difficult to believe through his early starts, since it was so far off of his norm, but then he put it into perspective himself, and one had to take heed - "I'm trying to do what I did in the second half of last year, to focus on location and not focus on how hard I'm throwing. Really I'm just trying to focus on keeping the ball down."

So should anyone feel bad for missing that “second half of last year” change? In truth, it was not an easy read. He was indeed a better pitcher overall after coming off of the DL, but a 34.9 percent ground-ball rate in the first half of 2013 only elevated to 37.9 the rest of the way. There just was not enough there for even the smallest of bells to chime. But his own words, and the recent results, show that he had made a conscious change, and while all of those MLB innings can take something out of an arm, they also represent the opportunity to gain a lot of savvy. Haren seems to have done just that. The brilliant outing vs. Cleveland on Monday is not likely to be repeated, but for now the lower K counts and velocity can be mitigated – at over 100 IP in 2014, there have been enough ground-balls to be accepted as the new norm. Of course, what happens after Haren leaves games is another matter entirely.

•Dodgers – But After Those Starters Leave
Isn’t it nice to have the #5 guy in your rotation working at an 8-4/3.57 clip? Over the first half of the 2014 season there has been an individual take in this space on every one of the Dodger starters, now that Haren makes concrete sense, every one of them dealing with a positive issue. As a group they check in at 43-23/3.00, the allowance a quarter of a run less than any other team, and nearly a full run better than the rest of the league. It is why they draw so much money in the Futures markets – a Kershaw-Greinke-Ryu trio in October can be dynamite, and Josh Beckett is as good as any current #4. Haren would likely be reduced to long relief, something that the team rarely has a need for.

But you will already notice that there is something that they do need, given that those special numbers from the starters only has them 10 games over .500. It is in the latter stages where things have not worked out, and when you are as close as they are to being an October factor, it could mean some activity as the trading deadline approaches. The Los Angeles bullpen is 6-16/3.73. Only the Mets have more losses, and as a group the Dodgers are #27 in BB-per-9.

Closer Kenley Jansen has been fine. While he is 0-3 in decisions, he has converted 26 of 29 saves, taking his career mark to 88 of 105. That 3.79 ERA may jump off the page, after his 1.88 of 2013, but you can comfortably ignore that – his xFIP is at 1.84, a career best. He has far more K (57) than Hits + BB (45), and that is with the hit count inflated by a BABIP of .388, more than 100 points above his career average in the category. His ERA will gradually drop. It is the group that needs to patch between the starters and Jansen that is struggling.

Brian Wilson came into the season as a wild card, and in going 1-3/5.52 he has found the strike zone elusive, to a danger zone of 6.8 BB-per-9. Like Wilson, Chris Perez was a former closer with another team, and a wild card. He has not fared much better, an 0-3/4.85, at a 4.3 BB-per-9 that would be his highest since 2009. Jamey Wright and Brandon League have been decent, but neither sports the K ratios needed for high- leverage situations in the 8th inning of a close game, and while J. P. Howell is effective in his particular role, the Left/Right gap will always be there.

It is rare that teams go after set-up men at trade time. But midway through the season Don Mattingly still does not have an “automatic” option for the 8th inning of a close game, and there should not be all that much confidence that someone from the current cast is going to step up and lock it down.

•Diamondbacks – Aaron Hill “Better Walk (Before They Make Him Run)”
Any time a Keith Richards reference can be thrown in you should seize the opportunity. But as the trading deadline approaches and Hill’s name gets mentioned often, with several contenders needing help at 2B, there is an issue that the decision makers have to deal with – what happened to his batting eye at the plate? And for those of us having to generate a rating each day, it is an issue regardless of which uniform he is wearing over the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks have certainly been a disappointment through the first half, and Hill has been a prime reason why.

Hill seemed to have found a second-life in the desert, turning in that terrific .302/.360/.522 of 2012, with 26 HR, and while injuries shortened his 2013 campaign, it was still a solid .291/.356/.462. This season has been much different, entering the 4th of July at .248/.285/.368, actually posting a negative value in WAR. You do not have to look much further than plate discipline to see why.

In the 4th inning of a 2-1 loss to the Padres last Sunday, Hill drew a BB from Odrisamer Despaigne, who was making only his second MLB start. They did not stop the game to give him Hill the baseball, but it was almost to that point – it was his first free pass after 120 PA’s, dating all the way back to May 25 against Jose Valverde, who was appearing in what was likely his next-to-last MLB game at the time. And since taking that trot down the first base line, Hill has followed up with 15 more trips to the plate without a free pass. That is an ominous stretch for a competent MLB hitter.

Here are the bottom lines – a 4.5 BB% that is by far a career low, and 32.8 percent below his career rate. And a 17.5 K% that is not only a career high, but a full 23.5 percent above his career norm. Those numbers are alarming when there are now 337 PA’s into a season, and especially when they are getting worse, instead of better - since the end of May Hill has contributed a .236/.243/.300 line. Over a span in which he has drawn one BB, he has struck out 19 times.

There have been many instances in this column where the focus was on a performer that seemed to be underachieving in the box scores, but was actually playing well and merely suffering from some of Baseball’s idiosyncracies. Hill is not one of them – he has lost his patience and is pressing badly at the plate, and until that changes the downward spiral will not end. Opposing pitchers are adjusting accordingly, and so should shrewd handicappers.
__________________________________________________ ________

Jackpot In July Huge Discounted Offer
We're just over a month away from the start of the 2014 National Football League & NCAA College Football Season and things are coming together very nicely here at StatSystemsSports.net. Along with the NBA Playoffs and MLB, an abundance of hours were spent in May and June diligently working on the upcoming football run. A number of exciting parameters were added to our state of the art database and we’ve uncovered some exciting and highly profitable Situational Analysis. We'll use them all this year and win with them I guarantee you that.

If you haven't registered for our Full-Season Package for the 2014 (NFL & NCAACF) Football Season, you can do so right now at 570-828-4091, "Where The Winning Just Never Stops!" The current rate for football is $2199.00 a 50% saving for signing up today. For those of you that invest on basketball and baseball, you may want to consider our 2014-15 All Season Profit Pass. For an additional $1400, you'll get everything we release in all three sports from July 5th, 2014 to June 30th, 2015 for only $3599. That fee breaks down to less than $300.00 dollars per month and is a number I know you call can handle.

We've got four months left in the Major League Baseball season and we're looking at our 2014 MLB Game of the Year. Normally priced at $350, you can get everything we release on the diamond in July thru the 2014 World Series as an added bonus. While also having access to all our Top-Rated Selections daily by E-mail. July isn't wasting any time so get on board today once again @ 570-828-4091.

"You'll be real Glad you did -Stan!
________________________________

Betting Notes - Friday

National League
•Marlins-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Heaney is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.118.
--Miller is 7-7, 4.10 ERA, WHIP: 1.429.

--Cardinal are 9-4 (+4.7 Units) against the Marlins over the last 3 seasons.
7 of 12 games in this series have gone Under the total over the last 3 seasons. (Under= +1.0 Units)

--Marlins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
--Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.

•Phillies-Pirates - 4:05 PM
--Buchanan is 4-4, 4.86 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.381 in 46.3 innings.
--Volquez is 3-2 when starting against Philadelphia with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.269.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The Over is 1-4 (-3.1 units).

--Pirates are 8-6 (+2.9 Units) against the Phillies over the last 3 seasons.
8 of 13 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +2.8 Units).

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

•Cubs-Nationals - 4:05 PM
--Samardzija is 2-3 when starting against Washington with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.010.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The Over is 3-2 (+0.9 units).

--Gonzalez is 2-1 when starting against Chicago with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The Over is 2-2 (-0.0 units).

--Nationals are 12-6 (+3.3 Units) against the Cubs over the last 3 seasons.
12 of 18 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +5.9 Units).

--Cubs are 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the Nationals this season.
3 of 4 games in this series have gone Over the total this season. (Over= +2.2 Units).

--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

•Brewers-Reds - 4:10 PM
--Garza is 1-3 when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.563.
His team's record is 2-5 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The Under is 0-6 (-6.5 units).

--Bailey is 4-7 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 9-9 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The Over is 10-8 (+1.2 units).

--Reds are 24-17 (+1.8 Units) against the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
25 of 40 games in this series have gone Under the total over the last 3 seasons. (Under= +7.2 Units).

--Reds are 5-2 (+3.0 Units) against the Brewers this season.
4 of 7 games in this series have gone Over the total this season. (Over= +0.9 Units).

--Over is 5-0 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
--Reds are 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
--Brewers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Cincinnati.

•Dodgers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Haren is 7-7 when starting against Colorado with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.243.
His team's record is 8-8 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The Over is 5-8 (-3.6 units).

--De La Rosa is 3-10 when starting against Los Angeles with an ERA of 6.17 and a WHIP of 1.617.
His team's record is 3-12 (-9.7 units) in these starts. The Under is 8-6 (+1.1 units).

--Rockies are 21-26 (+2.1 Units) against the Dodgers over the last 3 seasons.
24 of 45 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +1.7 Units).

--Dodgers are 7-3 (+2.8 Units) against the Rockies this season.
5 of 8 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +1.6 Units).

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Colorado.
--Dodgers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Colorado.
--Rockies are 2-5 in De La Rosas last 7 home starts vs. Dodgers.

•Diamondbacks-Braves - 4:10 PM
--Bolsinger is 1-4, 4.53 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.396 in 43.7 innings.

--Harang is 3-9 when starting against Arizona with an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.241.
His team's record is 6-11 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The Under is 13-4 (+8.3 units).

--Braves are 10-6 (+3.5 Units) against the Diamondbacks over the last 3 seasons.
8 of 14 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +1.4 Units).

--Diamondbacks are 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against the Braves this season.
2 of 3 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +0.8 Units).

--Over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Atlanta.
--Diamondbacks are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.

•Giants-Padres - 7:15 PM
--Hudson is 7-3 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.261.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The Under is 10-4 (+5.5 units).

--Despaigne is 1-0 when starting against San Francisco with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.571.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The Over is 0-1 (-1.1 units).

--Giants are 27-19 (+3.6 Units) against the Padres over the last 3 seasons.
26 of 45 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +6.2 Units).

--Padres are 5-4 (+2.4 Units) against the Giants this season.
6 of 8 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +3.7 Units).

--Over is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings in San Diego.
--Giants are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego.

•Umpires Trends
Phi-Pit-- Under is 4-0 in Gibson IIIs last 4 Saturday games behind home plate.
Chc-Was-- Home team is 4-0 in Littles last 4 Saturday games behind home plate.
LA-Col-- Road team is 5-2 in Hobergs last 7 games behind home plate.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
San Francisco pitcher Tim Hudson is 15-3 his last eighteen team starts during July, including 9-0 his last nine. Hudson, who turns 39 on July 14, opened the season with a 7-2 record and 1.81 ERA, but he's now on the verge of matching a career worst for losses in consecutive starts. The right-hander has dropped three straight outings -- something that hasn't happened to him since September 2010 with Atlanta -- and would match the poorest stretch of his career with a defeat Saturday.

A 212-game winner during his outstanding 16-year career, Hudson has lost four starts in a row only twice before: May 4-19, 2002, and June 16-July 1, 2010. Hudson, though, can't be faulted for his most recent loss. He tossed eight strong innings and gave up two runs against Cincinnati on Sunday, but Homer Bailey pitched a three-hitter to lead the Reds to a 4-0 victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
By David Schwab
VegasInsider

The new CFL regular season just got underway this past weekend and we have already seen a pair of shocking upsets to kick things off. Winnipeg got the ball rolling with a 45-21 romp over Toronto last Thursday night as a seven-point home underdog.

After Calgary thumped Montreal 29-8 on Saturday as a 7½-point favorite at home, Edmonton went on the road to beat British Columbia 27-20 as an eight-point underdog. In a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup Championship, Saskatchewan was even more dominant this time around with a 31-10 victory over Hamilton as a 3½-point home favorite to close things out for Week 1.

Total bettors watched the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 record in Week 1.

Saturday, July 5


Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Pointspread: PICK

Total Line: 53½

Game Overview

The defending champs are off to another solid start this year after going 8-1 SU in their first nine games of the 2013 regular season. Darian Durant was efficient throwing the ball in the win over Hamilton last Sunday with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent, but it was the Roughriders’ ground game that led the way. Anthony Allen ran the ball 27 times for 158 yards and one score while averaging 5.9 yards a carry.

The Argonauts are still trying to figure out what hit them in last Thursday’s season opener that started with a 17-0 hole in the first quarter. Ricky Ray’s numbers were solid with 283 yards passing and two touchdowns, but Toronto’s defense failed to show up after giving-up well over 300 yards through the air and over 130 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

The Roughriders come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 13 games between the two at the Rogers Centre. The road team in this matchup has won six of the last eight meetings SU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sat

Red Sox w/ Lester -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Under-Whelming'

The matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays Saturday night at O.co Coliseum looks to be another low scoring pitcher's duel as Scott Kazmir trades pitches with Mark Buehrle. Kazmir is 5-1 with a miniscule 1.61 ERA in seven home starts this season and has won four straight in front of the friendly crowd allowing a total of three earned runs. Buehrle may be winless in five starts but the crafty southpaw is off a sharp 8 innings of 2 run ball and did blank A's in his only appearance here last season. Consider 'Under' knowing the series is a perfect 5-0 'Under' this season, A's are 6-1 'Under' at home w/Kazmir , A's have a sparkling 20-5-1 'Under' stretch vs the A.L. East, Jays have cashed 11 of 15 'Under' tickets in Buehrle's road starts vs a team with a winning record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at BOSTON
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BALTIMORE) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season
43-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.2% | 27.4 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY is 39-17 (+24.0 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win

MLB comp

GAME - BAL @ BOS (Game 1)

Red Sox ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Over 8.5 NYY – Twins

Dodgers -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Saturday, July 5th July's Major League on FOX 3-Teamer of the Month!!!!!
San Francisco/San Diego under 6 1/2
Baltimore/Boston under 9
Texas/New York over 7 1/2

2-1 or Better or we'll email you Sunday's Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles/Colorado under 11
Seattle/Chicago under 7
Tampa Bay/Detroit under 8

The Boston/Balt UNDER is the late game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREG SHAKER

SHAKER'S SHORTS

#651 San Antonio Stars/Indiana Fever - OVER 150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1* Rockies -110
1* D-Backs +135
1* Astros +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8 Units NY Mets -131

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

SOCCER
PERRY'S SELECTIONS
FIFA WORLD CUP
12:00PM BELIGUM vs ARGENTINA - OVER 2 -140
4:00PM NETHERLANDS -180 vs COSTA RICA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Dodgers(-117)

The Dodgers are playing great ball having won 7 of 10, while the Rockies have lost 9 of 10. And giving the ball to Dan Haren looking to build off his best performance of the season should make for another win for the Blue. Colorado starters have a 7.65 ERA over their last 18 matches, and with 3 of their top hitters still out, its gonna be hard to break this losing streak.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take MILWAUKEE +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Netherlands vs Costa Rica

At this point in the World Cup, the Dutch know plenty about Costa
Rica — once one of the surprise packages of the tournament. What
they may not know is that Costa Rica’s Jorge Luis Pinto learned his
coaching from the Dutchman who invented ‘total football’.
Well-traveled Colombian coach Pinto studied at the University of
Cologne early in the 1980s when Dutch coach Rinus Michels was
coaching the city’s Bundesliga club.
Michels was a good teacher — a few years later he would lead the
Netherlands to its one and only international title, the 1988
European Championship, having pioneered the ‘total football’
approach — where players can change their positions during a game.
Now Pinto aims to stop the Dutch taking another step toward their
first world title when his Costa Rica team meets the Netherlands on
Saturday in the quarterfinals at Salvador’s Arena Fonte Nova.
It is not only Pinto who knows the Dutch game well. Bryan Ruiz had
a successful spell with FC Twente before joining Fulham and now
plays at PSV Eindhoven alongside likely Netherlands starter
Georginio Wijnaldum and super-sub Memphis Depay.
Ruiz has teamed up with a strong, fast-paced striker in Joel
Campbell, propelling Costa Rica to the surprise top spot in a Group
D that also included England, Italy and Uruguay. Pinto’s team also
has a miserly defense that has conceded just two goals in the
tournament so far.
Not surprisingly, Costa Rica will be attempting to shut down the
Dutch striking partnership of Robben and Robin van Persie, who are
looking to get back on the scoring sheet after combining for six
goals in their team’s first two matches but failing to find the net
since.
The winner in Salvador goes on to a semifinal against either
Belgium or Argentina in Sao Paulo on July 9.
Costa Rica will be without defender Oscar Duarte after he was sent
off in the 66th minute of their penalty shootout victory over
Greece. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas skipped training on Wednesday with
a sore shoulder, but he is expected to be fit to play.
The lengthening Dutch injury list is creating problems for coach
Louis van Gaal, who is fast running out of fit midfielders.
AC Milan strongman Nigel de Jong may have played his last World Cup
match in Brazil after tearing a groin muscle early in the
second-round defeat of Mexico. Leroy Fer also is in doubt with a
hamstring injury he picked up in training the day after scoring the
crucial opening goal in the Netherlands 2-0 defeat of Chile.
Van Gaal could push left back Daley Blind from defense to midfield
or opt for Feyenoord’s Jordie Clasie, who has yet to play in Brazil
and has only eight caps to his name.
Van Gaal’s most experienced midfielder, Wesley Sneijder, appears to
be running into form at just the right time.
The team’s top scorer in South Africa four years ago broke his
Brazil duck against Mexico with a sizzling drive in the 88th
minute, after substitute Klaas Jan Huntelaar had headed the ball
back. Substitute Huntelaar then calmly slotted home a stoppage time
penalty, but he said the assist for Sneijder was his most important
touch.
Our opinion for this match is that Neterhlands will take the win in
this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost both plays on Friday in World Cup Soccer Germany/France Over 2.5 and a $25 play on the Draw +$250.

"Mr Chalk's" play on Friday in the American League Red Sox -$147/Orioles was Ppd.

For Saturday in the Woman's Final at Wimbledon E&B like E Bouchard +$120/P Kvitova for$25.

For Saturday in World Cup Soccer E&b like Netherlands -$190/Costa Rica for $50.

For Saturday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$142/Cubs.

Ben lee is 4-4+$140 for week Thirty Six 166-193-5 -$2989

"Mr Chalk" is 45-34 -$346 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

MLB
San Francisco

WORLD CUP WINNER # 6 IN A ROW
Argentina & Belgium draw +240

CFL
Saskatchewan -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

World Cup Soccer

3* Netherlands/Costa Rica Under 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Octagon locks

Top Play: (UFC 175)

1 Star Chris Weidman (-175)- Weidman is a very well rounded fighter with amazing grappling. He also has good enough wrestling to get this fight to the ground where he can land ground and pound and work for subs. Machida is a very well rounded fighter also and looks to counter his opponents. Machida is not very active in his striking but is still a dangerous opponent with solid power. I don't think Machida will TKO Weidman and I don't think he will be active enough to win a Decision. I do think Weidman has more ways to win this fight and could even finish the fight.


Top Parlay: (WSOF 11)

1 Star Justin Gaethje; Melvin Guillard (+101)


UFC 175 Predictions:

Weidman 4th Rd TKO


Rousey 2nd Rd Sub


Mitrione 2nd Rd TKO


Doane UD


Faber 2nd Rd Sub


Roberston UD


Camozzi UD


Roop UD
Vasconcelos 2nd Rd Sub


Bush UD



WSOF 11 Predictions:

Gaethje 1st Rd TKO


Fitch UD


Guillard 2nd Rd TKO


Bollinger UD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

4* Rockies +102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTi Sports

Texas Rangers +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

David Phelps (3-4, 4.26) gets the ball this afternoon for the New York Yankees as they try and stay hot vs. the reeling Minnesota Twins. The Twins will send Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32) to the hill in hopes to curb the Yanks recent dominance in this series. New York has won 16 of their last 19 games vs. the Twins and are really playing some of their best baseball of th entire season. Pino has been hit around like a pinata in his recent starts and is still winless in four major league starts. The Yankess are 8-2 in Phelps' last 10 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in their last five road games as the favorite. The Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 games as the dog and 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Yankees really seem to have some positive momentum right now and we think they hit Pino early and often this afternoon. Give us the short priced road favorite here this afternoon at Target. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - NEW YORK YANKEES ML -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor

MMA Picks

Rob Font (+175) over George Roop


Stefan Struve (-160) over Matt Mitrione


Chris Weidman (-175) over Lyoto Machida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

2* CHICAGO WHITE SOX RL+1.5

(Listed Pitchers)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

World Cup Soccer

3* Belgium to advance (+180)
1* Belgium/Argentina Under 2.5 (-130)


1* Costa Rica to advance (+370)
1* Costa Rica/Netherlands Under 2.5 (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Costa Rica +½ +171 over Netherlands

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.71)

July 5 – 4:00 PM EST. The Dutch Lions have not guaranteed a position in the quarterfinals yet but the odds makers apparently they think they have with this line. The Netherlands indeed have the pedigree, they have the talent and they have the moxie. However, what many fail to consider here is how narrowly this team escaped a Mexican team that had them on the ropes. Wesley Sneijder saved the Oranje in the latter stages of the match with a brilliant strike from the top of the eighteen. In the next five minutes the Dutch would strike once more and win the game on a controversial penalty awarded in what was later deciphered to be a miscalculated fall predicated by a flop. The Dutch would sneak away from Memo Ochoa and his Mexican compatriots.

Enter the Ticos of Costa Rica, this team is exceptionally gifted. In fact, Costa Rica managed to pull off an improbable victory given the circumstances in which they achieved the result. Costa Rica took a one to nil lead on a Brian Ruiz goal, only minutes later Oscar Duarte would be sent off with his second yellow card and the Costa Ricans would have to weather a Greek storm for a 30 minutes of regulation with just 10 men. The Greeks would strike in the closing moments of the second half, finding an equalizer on a second chance. Seemingly, the Costa Ricans were poised to make an early exit despite their spirited efforts but they did not. In fact, a fatigued and tired Costa Rican team would fight through extra time and emerge victorious in the final shootout, led by the brilliant goalkeeping of Claudio Bravo.

It is very feasible that Robin Van Persie and the Oranje may be sent packing by this resilient CONCACAF team that has defeated three former champions and a top-13 team in Greece en route to their quarterfinal qualification. However, The heart and character of the Costa Ricans should not be undermined and given the means that this team has arrived at their current station, the Ticos should not be counted out and they offer up too much value to pass up on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Toronto @ OAKLAND

OAKLAND -1½ +156 over Toronto

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)

The Blue Jays have scored one time over their last 21 innings. They got a brilliant effort from Marcus Stroman yesterday and it went to waste. Overall, the Jays are hitting .234 against lefties but over their last 10 games, that number has dipped to .198. For the Jays offense, it’s a case of all or nothing because if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, they do not score runs. This is a difficult park to go deep in and that’s one of the reasons Toronto isn’t scoring. Their reeling offense now faces lefty Scott Kazmir. After totaling only 2 IP in the majors in 2011/12, Kazmir was a surprise contributor for the Indians in 2013. He came west to the pitcher’s haven of O.Co Coliseum in the off-season and with injuries to several young starters, Kazmir has been a stalwart for the A’s this year. Kazmir continues to build on his strong numbers from 2013. Kazmir was a big K-guy earlier in his career and he seems to have regained that skill. With a high swing and miss rate of 11% (15% over his last two starts), it wouldn’t be surprising to see even more whiffs. Combine that with few walks, and he has the best command of his career. While pitching half his games in Oakland helps reduce the homers, he’s also keeping the ball on the ground (48%) far more than in the past. Kazmir has also dominated left-handed hitters better than he did earlier in his career. With a 76%/7% dominant start/disaster start split in his 17 starts, Kazmir has a great opportunity to increase that dominant start percentage even higher against a Blue Jays team that is seeing golf balls.

We all know what Mark Buehrle is, as we’ve been watching him for years. What we all know for sure is that he’s not a 2.50 ERA pitcher and never has been. Buehrle’s nifty 2.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are both a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. An 82% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA. Regression in Buehrle’s surface starts in the second half are about the closest thing to a sure bet as there is in this game of baseball and that regression likely starts here.


Arizona @ ATLANTA

Arizona +145 over ATLANTA

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)

Aaron Harang has been a WHIP machine lately, allowing double-digit hits in two of his last three outings and serving up 8 ER against the Phillies on June 13. After pitching five gems in his first nine starts, Harang only has one strong start over his last eight. Harang faces the Diamondbacks at home today—unfortunately, home has not been where the heart is for him this year (.292 oppBA, compared to .247 on the road) and all that combined makes him a huge risk spotting a tag like this one.

Mike Bolsinger has some upcoming victories due to him. In seven starts he has one win and an overall ERA of 4.53, which provides us with this great buy-low opportunity. Bolsinger has a K/BB split of 5/16 over his last 20 frames. He has an xERA over his last three starts of 2.12 after allowing just 15 hits and three earned runs over that span. Bolsinger comes in with a 54% groundball rate, a strong 10% swing and miss rate and if it weren’t for a very unlucky 17% HR/f rate his ERA would be in the low 3’s. We also like the fact that the Braves have never seen Bolsinger, which makes him even more appealing here. A pitcher flying far under the radar, Bolsinger offers up some tremendous profit potential the rest of the way and we’ll put that to the test here.


Kansas City @ CLEVELAND

Kansas City +107 over CLEVELAND

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

The Royals scored seven times last night en route to a 7-1 win in the opener of this series. K.C. has now won two straight, four of five and they’re heating up again. You might remember about a month ago when they reeled off 10 straight and they appear headed in that direction again. The Royals are seeing beach balls and this is a great park to keep it going in. T.J. House has made six starts since being called up and only two of those were of the pure quality variety. House has an oppBA of .301, a 1.49 WHIP and only 22 K’s in 34 innings. It’s a small sample size but the Indians, like many teams, are desperate for starting pitching and House fills the void for now. House's minor league career skills and stats were underwhelming with a 3.93 career ERA at the minor league level over 764 innings since being drafted in the 16th round of the 2008 draft. Now he’s favored over the heating up Royals?

The reason the Indians are favored is because Jeremy Guthrie has been a big risk his entire career and not too many folks like to bet on him. The oddsmakers have all the data on which pitchers take the most action, for and against, and Guthrie falls in the latter category. That said, this guy wins ball-games. Guthrie is extremely smart out there and almost always throws a smart game, keeping the hitters off balance throughout. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and that includes games against the Angels, Detroit, the Dodgers, at U.S. Cellular against the South Side and in Toronto at the Rogers Center. The Royals have won five straight games that Guthrie has started and we’re suggesting that they give a little extra in support of him because he’s one of the most likeable guys in the game and his teammates want to do well for him. Regardless, a smart, experienced and skilled Guthrie pitching for the hotter team is a much better option taking back a tag than a career minor-leaguer is spotting one.



CFL

We’re going to pass on this afternoon’s CFL game between the Argos and Riders. Put a gun to our head and we’d take Toronto but the Argos defense is a serious work in progress and that has us backing off. Why not the Riders then? One, their stock is too high and two, a letdown after last week’s celebratory (Grey Cup presentation) home win over the Ti-Cats last week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Insiders

SATURDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Orioles GM2 +125 and 10* MLB OVER 9

20* MLB Braves -165 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5

20* MLB Tigers -155 and 10* MLB UNDER 8

20* MLB White Sox +135 and 10* MLB UNDER 7

20* MLB Yankees -120 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

MLB

4* Seattle Mariners -145

3* Kansas City Royals +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

MLB

4* Cincinnati Reds -135

4* Cleveland Indians -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

San Francisco Giants -120 over the San Diego Padres (Bet Level 2) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:15 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

MLB

5* Under 7.5 Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics

3* Under 7 Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox

2* Over 8.5 Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels

2* Washington Nationals RL +105

2* Los Angeles Dodgers -110

2* Detroit Tigers -130

1* Pittsburgh Pirates -175

1* Cincinnati Reds -130

1* Seattle Mariners -145

1* Los Angeles Angels -160

1* New York Mets -130

1* Under 7.5 Texas Rangers/New York Mets

1* Over 11 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

Play of The Day

MLB

Colorado Rockies +107 over the Los Angeles Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers

Another RARITY: OVER OVER

1 Unit #907 MIL/CIN Over 8 +100 Conroy 9 Over/1 Under L10gms 90%


UNDER Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #901 MIA/STL Under 7.5 -125 Fagan 3 Over/7 Under L10gms 70.0%

1 Unit #917 SEA/CWS Under 7 -115 Hickox 4 Over/9 Under L13gms 69.2%

1 Unit #929 TX/NYM Under 7.5 -125 Eddings 3 Over/12 Under L15gm 80.0%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Washington Nationals -200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC'S SPORTS

World Cup Soccer

8 Unit Play: Take Argentina (-0.5, +110)

We are betting that Argentina will win in regulation time. If they lose or if extra time is needed then this is a losing bet.


4 Unit Play: Take Netherlands (-1.5, +150)

We are betting that the Dutch are going to win by two or more goals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox 1:00 PM Eastern

Pick: Boston -146

Not many left-handers have been as good as Jon Lester when taking the ball at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The Sox are 73-43 when he takes the ball at home. More importantly, Lester is pitching great right now, allowing just 4 total runs in his last four starts covering 30 innings. The same can't be said of Miguel Gonzalez, the Baltimore starter, who has not gotten past the fifth inning in three consecutive starts. Overall, the Birds are just 3 -8 in his last 11 road starts as a dog. Boston has been winning at home to low totals at 8-2 in their last 10 to a total of 7 to 8.5, and over Leter's last 24 starts here they are 17-7. Take Boston in Game one of today's doubleheader.
Not taking into account that Lester gets NO run support regardless of the quality of the opposing pitcher because the Red Sox offense is non existent most of the time.

[golden contender]

Saturday card has the 6* Highest Rated FIFA World Cup play and 2 BIG 5* MLB Power system plays, their is also a 10-0 Dog system in afternoon action. Free MLB Totals system below.



The free MLB Afternoon totals system is on the Under in the Philadelphia at Pittsburgh game. Rotation numbers 903/904 at 4:05 eastern. This game features a 90% MLB Totals System that plays to the under for home favorites like the Pirates at -140 or higher and a total that is 8.5 or less off a home win by 5 or more runs, and their opponent is off a road loss by 5 or more and had 2 or less hits. The Phillies are scoring 2.2 runs the past week. The Pirates have stayed under in 12 of 16 with a total that is 8 to 8.5 and 23 of 30 in day games while allowing 2.6 runs per game. Both Pitchers are on the improve. Volquez for the Pirates has allowed 1 run in his last 2 starts over 14 innings and Buchanan for The Phillies has a 3.06 era over the last 3 and has pitched much better. Look for this game to go under the total. On Saturday its the 6* World Cup Highest Rated Play of the Tournament and 2 big 5* MLB League Wide Power systems, one wins by an average 6-1 score all are from systems dating to 2004. There is an early 10-0 dog system and evening road warrior. Inbox to Jump on now and put the Most Powerful data in the industry on your side on Saturday. For the free play. Take the Under in the Phillies at Pirates game. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

MLB

Miami Marlins +118

Cincinnati Reds -129

Texas Rangers +126


World Cup Soccer

3* Netherlands -185

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

Cincinnati Reds ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger

Under 2.5 Argentina/Belgium

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

WNBA

Over 163.5 #655/656 Connecticut Sun/Tulsa Shock (8:05pm EDT)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

1000* Los Angeles Dodgers -120

100* Cincinnati Reds -125

50* San Francisco Giants -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alpha Omega

901 Miami Marlins +120

919 Tampa Bay Rays +125

914 San Diego Padres +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JB PA Connection

Houston Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RTG Sports

2* Under 11 Dodgers @ Rockies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocco Vincintore (YouWinNow)

PREFERRED PLAYERS CLUB MLB MONEYMAKER

908 Cincinnati w/Bailey -135 4:10 EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Raider

Cincinnati/Milwaukee Over 8 With this pitching match-up, I am looking for a high scoring game today. Milwaukee sends Matt Garza (5-5, 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .252 BAA) to the hill today, while Cincinnati sends Homer Bailey (8-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .269 BAA). Milwaukee's offense is struggling, having scored just 18 runs in their last 5 games. However, for the season they are 5th in the majors in runs scored, so we know their offense can explode. Today, the Brewers face a very hittable pitcher, and one they've hit in the past. Their roster has a collective .302 lifetime batting average against Bailey. Since 2011, the Brewers have scored 40 ER in 69.2 innings against Bailey for a 5.17 ERA. Of course, as well as Milwaukee has hit Bailey, the Reds have had similar success against Matt Garza. The Reds roster has hit a collective .284 against Garza. Since 2011, he has been tagged by the Reds for a 5.45 ERA himself. The Reds have tagged him for 6 home runs in that time; only Houston has hit more off him. The Reds offense has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs in their last 5 games and being shut out twice. In their 11 games prior to that they had scored 67 runs, so this offense has shown itself capable. This looks like a perfect set up for the Reds to break out of their slump. Look for a rather high scoring game in Cincinnati today.

Leans

New York Yankees ML (-110) at Minnesota

New York Mets ML (-132) vs Texas Rangers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Play Of The Day

Kansas City Royals -105 (Guthrie)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2013 at home after allowing 6+ runs last game for a net profit of $1000.


PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 11-0 since April 17, 2012 as a 140+ favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters last start for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Red Sox are 0-11 (+1,125) since August 2009 in the first two games of the series against an AL team, when their opponent has won at least four straight multi-run games.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Astros are 0-17 since July 31, 2011 as a road 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1700 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Jon Lester starts the Red Sox are 2-13 since August 05, 2011 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1561 when playing against.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Simon Green

MLB Free Play

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates -165

Pirates are making a run in the NL Central. The Phillies are wondering who will still be on this team after the trade deadline. The Phillies are in a free fall and it will continue. Plat on the Pirates.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gordon24

$400 Play Best Bet - Oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Insiders


3* Plays

Miami +120

San Fransisco -120


2* Plays

NYY -120

Arizona and Atlanta under 7.5


1* Plays

Milwaukee -110

Arizona +140

LAD and Colorado under 11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsmemo

VIP Free Play

Texas at New York -130 O/U 7.5

Andrew Lange's Recommendation: UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hankwins

Tampa Bay Rays +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Today's Selections


MLB: NY Mets


WNBA: stars/fever under 150, sky/storm under 146
1-1 Fri. 9-13 on the latest free trial.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHADOW SPORTS

MLB:
917 Seattle RL-1 @-120 over White Sox to win 1.0 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsHandicappers

Yankees/Twins over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

H&H Sports

MLB

3* New York Mets

2* New York Yankees

2* Under Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#907: Brewers: +120 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Garza / Bailey


Totals

#915/916: Over Twins: 8.5 (-115) (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Phelps / Pino

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rochestertitans

66-24 documented record in MMA

UFC

Guilherme Vasconcelos-160 (5units)


Melvin Guillard-155 (5units) World series of fighting- event is early


Robertson and Doane just missed the cut

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

15* Cincinnati Reds -130

Today's hidden gem is between the 51-36 Brewers and the 44-41 Reds. Matt Garza and Homer Baily have both been subpar but Homer has pitched well lately. He's coming off a 9 inning shutout of the Giants. Reds have won 6 straight against the Brewers and know they are the team to beat to win the Central. Big value here in a Reds play even with the public on the Reds at a 57% clip.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gilmo

• [908] CIN/MIL O8 *S*
• [912] ATL/ARI O7.5 *S*
• [930] NYM/TEX U7 *S*
• [922] CLE/KC U8

• [1926] OAK/TOR '1st 5' O4 *S*
• [1914] SD/SF '1st 5' O3.5 *S*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

N.L. (3*) TRIPLE DIME GAME OF WEEK

Cincinnati Reds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gilmo

added

• [904] PIT/PHI O8 = [**]
• [903] Phillies ML
• [911] D'Backs ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

20* San Francisco Giants -130

10* Boston Red Sox gm2 -144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jlb sports info

$300 *WCS* Netherlands /Costa Rica -Draw (+325)

$500 *MLB* Washington Nats -rl (+115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HIGH ROLLER SPORTS PICKS

5 Unit Over 8 DIAMOND CLUB REDS/BREWERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

10* St. Louis -145

8* Washington -152

Underdog of the day- Philadelphia +150