7-8-14

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World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Germany

Brazil v Germany (+177, +182, Draw +228)

A pair of global soccer juggernauts collide Tuesday afternoon in Belo Horizonte when host Brazil looks to carry on without its most elecrifying player in World Cup semifinal action against Germany. Brazilian fans were stunned after seeing sensational forward Neymar carried off with what turned out to be a fractured vertebrae in last week's quarterfinal win over Colombia. Germany advanced with a 1-0 triumph over France.

Neymar's absence isn't only damaging to the spectre of the event - he's the biggest star on the Brazilian roster - but also to the host team's chances of advancing. His four goals in the group stage helped mask what was at times a shaky effort by the Brazilian side, which is seeking its first World Cup crown since 2002. The Germans aren't without concerns, as well, as they look for their first championship since unification.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

WORLD RANKINGS: Brazil: No. 3; Germany: No. 2.

INJURY REPORT: Brazil: F Neymar (broken vertebrae) is out for the remainder of the tournament; D Thiago Silva will miss the semifinal match after earning a one-game suspension for a second yellow card. Germany: D Shkodran Mustafi will miss the rest of the World Cup with a leg injury suffered against Algeria in the round of 16.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Germany will be coming into this semifinal with added confidence after brushing aside the French in Rio last Friday. Brazil were fortunate with favorable officiating going their way against Colombia. The Seleção will need play at 110% to make the final now that they're missing their star man Neymar." Covers Expert Footy Tipster

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I think everyone expected these to teams to make it to this point in the tournament. Brazil has been hit with a big injury to their star player Neymar and now their captain Thiago Silva has been been suspended for this match. Germany has come this far in the tournament relatively unscathed. Both Brazil and Germany are the favorites to win the World Cup with Brazil at 29-10 with 20 percent of the action and Germany is 21-10 with the 15 percent of the action to win it all. As for the game itself, Germany is seeing 55 percent of the action to win in regulation and tie in regulation is seeing 23 percent of the action, while the 2.5 goal total is seeing 63 percent of the action on the under." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT BRAZIL: The biggest challenge for the home side will be replacing Neymar's offense; in addition to leading the team in goals, he tops the roster in shots (18) and shot assists (13). His absence puts even more pressure on Fred, who has had a miserable tournament and will almost certainly bear the brunt of criticism from fans and media if his side fails to advance to the final. Of the three players considered to replace Neymar, Willan represents the closest in offensive skill but is still a pale comparison.

ABOUT GERMANY: A flu bug nearly derailed the Germans' chance at a World Cup championship, but the players are collectively close to full health with minimal injury concerns. On the field, Germany needs to figure out how to generate good scoring chances against a Brazilian defense that has been one of the best in the tournament but will be missing one of its key components in Thiago Silva. Germany ranks first in the tournament in quality chances generated with 20, but has missed on 14 of them.

TRENDS:

* Brazil has five wins, two losses and two draws in nine meetings since Germany unified.
* Brazil has gone 41 matches without a loss in its home nation, last falling to Paraguay in 2002.
* Germany has reached the final six times since 1966.
* German F Miroslav Klose (15) needs one goal to become the World Cup's all-time leading scorer by himself.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup semifinal betting: Brazil vs. Germany
By Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) SPORTS

Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) Sports has everything you need to wager on World Cup 2014. Find odds and info on all the exciting soccer action in Brazil.

The 2014 World Cup is now at the knockout stage, read this semifinals betting preview before placing your bets.

Brazil have not always been what they were predicted to be in this World Cup. Our pre-tournament favorites to win the Cup were unconvincing in winning their opener vs Croatia 3-1 and effectively drew two of their next three matches before finally showing the pace many expected in their first half vs. Colombia in the quarterfinals.

Germany are now the favorites in many eyes, but are not without flaws. After demolishing Portugal, they only managed a draw with Ghana that exposed some questionable German defense en route to winning Group G. After a tough win vs Algeria in R16, an early goal vs France in the quarterfinals was enough.

Two world soccer powers now find themselves 180 minutes from kissing the World Cup.

Neymar

Neymar’s injury is still the talk of the tournament. Prior to it, he’d been called everything from talisman to genius, but that all disappeared for Brazil when Juan Camilo Zuniga took the 22-year old phenom out of the World Cup. Our spread markets for Brazil-Germany opened with Brazil at -0.25 2.10, while Neymar’s status for the semi-final was still in question. Even with early bettors accounting for the possibility of his exclusion from the semi-finals, once the news that Neymar was out broke, the market showed its dismay for Brazil, who can now be bet upon at 0 1.96.

Neymar’s likely replacement is Chelsea’s Willian, a direct winger who will pose a different threat to Germany’s backline. This is likely contributing to our Totals markets moving towards Under 2 goals, which opened @ 2.15 and is now @ 2.00. Germany’s greatest perceived weakness is a defense that plays four centerbacks; not having to cope with Neymar should make that defense’s task easier.

Thiago Silva

While Neymar has had the headlines, it’s Silva whose status will likely have the most effect on market movement. Brazil’s captain received his second yellow card of the tournament against Colombia, disqualifying him from playing against the Germans. Should that ruling stand, Silva’s likely replacement is Bayern Munich’s Dante, and although he is a capable replacement, Brazil will likely miss the leadership that Thiago Silva brings. Brazil has made an appeal on Silva’s second yellow card; the result of that appeal should immediately move markets for the match.

Home Field Advantage

Beyond Silva, the real question bettors must solve is just how pronounced Brazil’s home-field advantage is. This article determined the value of HFA in English Premier League, but there are some who feel Brazil’s advantage has been even more pronounced, with strong complaints from disposed opponents regarding referees not booking the Selecao for offenses a visiting nation might not get away with. As a bettor, you must determine the precise value of that advantage. Do so, and you may have your edge.

Summary

Both nations have covered the spread in 3 of 5 matches thus far in the tournament. Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) Sports’ 1X2 markets have Brazil at 2.78 (a 36% probability of winning), the Germans 35.3% (35.5%) and the regulation time draw at 3.25. Enjoy the semi-final.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Weather report for Germany-Brazil
Stephen Campbell

The forecast for Tuesday's semifinal between Germany and Brazil in Belo Horizonte is currently calling for clear skies with a temperature of 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Humidity, wind and precipitation are not expected to be a factor.

Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) presently lists the host Brazilians as +174 faves with a total of two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brazil vs. Germany Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides


It is a curious thing to have reached a World Cup semifinal (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) having yet to put in a convincing performance, yet that is just the accusation that could be leveled at Brazil.

Apart from their group stage win over Cameroon - in which they still conceded an equalizer - the hosts have not looked overly comfortable in any game, and they were desperately holding on by the end of their quarterfinal clash with Colombia.

The Germans, meanwhile, have perhaps been more in control of their games, never really looking in trouble against France in the previous round, although they were given a scare by Algeria in the last 16.

It is perhaps because of these performances that for the first time this tournament we find Brazil as fractional outsiders for a match priced at +180 at the LVH SuperBook while Germany are offered at +170. The draw is available at +215.

The loss of their two best players Neymar (injured) and Thiago Silva (suspended) will also have impacted on Brazil's price and if we have hitherto seen little to inspire confidence in backing Felipe Scolari's side, they are now even more unappealing with those high profile absentees.

Germany for their part look more functional than flamboyant despite playing some attractive football and Joachim Low's men are not a side that have looked overly threatening in front of goal.

Indeed perhaps a lack of a killer instinct in front of goal is the one major criticism of the side, and so bearing in mind the injury problems Brazil have, a low-scoring game could be on the cards.

UNDER 2.5 goals is offered at -175 at the LVH but more attractive is the price of 5-to-4 offered outside of Vegas for UNDER 0.5 goals in the first half.

Brazil have scored five goals in the first halves of matches at the World Cup but four of them have been scored by either Neymar or Thiago Silva. Meanwhile this selection has paid out in three of Germany's last four matches, making it a solid option at a decent price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Germany, Brazil square off in Tuesday's semifinals
By: Brian Graham
StatFox

Only four teams remain in the 2014 World Cup, with the first semifinal on Tuesday pitting soccer giants Brazil and Germany.

Host Brazil will be playing this match short-handed, with star forward Neymar suffering a fractured vertebra in the quarterfinal win, while team captain Thiago Silva is suspended due to picking up his second yellow card in a 2-1 victory versus Colombia that put the Selecao into the semifinal round for the first time since 2002. Germany reached its fourth straight semifinal, and 10th such appearance in the past 13 World Cups, by knocking off France 1-0. This was the third straight one-goal victory for the Germans. Brazil holds a 5-2-2 advantage in the past nine meetings between these countries, which include the Selecao's 2-0 victory over the Germans in the 2002 World Cup. However, Germany topped Brazil 3-2 when they last met in a friendly in August 2011. Although Brazil will be missing two key starters on Tuesday, they are undefeated in 41 straight matches on home soil, and manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has never lost a World Cup match while leading the Selecao.

Brazil is coming off another harder-than-expected win, as a Thiago Silva's goal seven minutes in and David Luiz's top-corner rocket off a free kick held up in a 2-1 victory. During that match, 54 fouls were committed, including a tournament-high 31 fouls by Brazil. Silva and goalkeeper Julio Cesar were both given yellow cards, with Cesar quite fortunate he didn't pick up a red card when he took out Colombian star James Rodriguez in the box that resulted in a penalty kick goal. Against Colombia, the Selecao held only a slight edge in total shots (12-11), shots on goal (6-5) and possession (51% to 49%). Brazil nearly fell to Chile to open the knockout round in a match where they committed 28 fouls and were booked for four yellow cards, but prevailed in penalty kicks when Chile's final attempt hit the post. Although the Selecao held a commanding 23-13 shot advantage (13-5 shots on goal) in that match, Chile out-possessed Brazil 51% to 49%. The Selecao will certainly miss injured Neymar, who is tied for second among all goal scorers in the World Cup with four of his team's 10 tallies. David Luiz has two goals, but no other teammate has more than one tally in the tournament, with these other four goals coming from Oscar, Fred, Fernando Luiz Roza and Thiago Silva.

Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have not really played up to their capabilities since that lopsided result. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 result, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16. A Mats Hummels header off a Toni Kroos free kick at the 12-minute mark was the club's loan goal in its 1-0 quarterfinal victory over Les Blues. That was the second goal for Hummels in the tournament, putting him second on the club behind Thomas Muller, who has four of the 10 Germany goals in this tournament. He now has nine goals in 10 career World Cup matches. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Brazil legend Ronaldo for the all-time record. In the quarterfinal win over France, possession was split equally at 50% apiece, which marks the fifth straight match that the Germans have not lost possession. They held possession advantages of 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 27-20 edge in corner kicks on their opponents, and in the past three contests, Germany has fired 50 total shots, with 37 going on goal (74%). The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps, but did not play in the quarterfinals. Germany has allowed a mere three goals over five matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who is the much more highly-regarded keeper in this match. The Germans have also completed 500 more successful passes than any other World Cup team and over 1,000 more than Brazil, and will need to control possession in this match to beat a more physical Selecao club.

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2Halves2Win MLB 7/8


1* GAME - CHI @ CIN: Reds ML (GAME 1)


*COMP*

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JULY 8th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 7/8/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
•Rays, Royals Love The Over: When the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals meet, you can expect runs to come in bunches. In the last 11 matchups between the two clubs, the Over is 8-2-1. They'll face off again at Tropicana Field Tuesday evening on Sun Sports in Tampa Bay. BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com currently lists the Royals as slight -115 road favorites with an Over/Under of 7.5.

•Under Sizzling With Braves On The Road: In the Atlanta Braves' last nine road games through Monday, the Under is a red-hot 8-1. Atlanta renews acquaintances with the New York Mets at Citi Field (7:10 PM EST) Tuesday night. The Braves are presently a -139 favorite with a total of seven, per BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com.

•Cueto, Wood Trending Opposite Ways: When the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs renew acquaintances in the first game of a double header (1:10 PM EST) Tuesday afternoon, there are a few pitching trends that need your attention. Travis Wood will be on the mound for the Cubs while Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds. In Cueto's last six starts against the Cubbies, the Reds are 5-1. In Woods' last seven outings against the Reds, the Cubs are 1-6. BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com currently lists the Reds as heavy -192 favorites with a total of seven.

•Nuno To Make D-Backs Debut Tuesday: Newly acquired left-handing pitcher Vidal Nuno will make his first start for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field at 9:40 PM EST Tuesday. In 14 starts this season with the New York Yankees, the second-year pitcher is 2-5 with a 5.42 ERA. BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).com currently has the Diamondbacks as slight -107 favorites with a total of 9.5.

•Indians Acquire OF Dickerson: The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Chris Dickerson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the team announced Monday. The Indians selected his contract from the Triple-A Columbus roster and also designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment. Dickerson has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the New York Yankees (2011-12) and Baltimore Orioles (2013).

Dickerson, 32, has appeared in 314 major league games over six seasons from 2008-13 with four different teams since debuting with the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. He was the Reds' 16th-round pick in 2003 out of Nevada-Reno. Dickerson signed with the Pirates organization in January and has spent the entire season to date with Indianapolis, hitting .309 (73-for-236) with seven home runs and 30 RBIs and in 65 games. Dickerson will be in uniform Monday night when the Indians take on the Yankees.

•Scott Carroll Holds Red Sox To One Hit In Win Monday: White Sox pitcher Scott Carroll earned a win Monday, giving up just one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings and striking out five in his team's 4-0 victory over the Red Sox. Carroll (3-5) delivered a season-high in strikeouts while tossing at least six scoreless innings for the second time this season. The only hit he allowed Monday was a leadoff single in the third inning, and his two walks came in the sixth and seventh innings. Carroll owns a 4.52 ERA and 31:23 K:BB ratio in 63 2/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Indians Saturday.

•Jered Weaver Exits Start With Lower Back Tightness: Angels pitcher Jered Weaver was removed from Monday's game against the Blue Jays due to lower back tightness, the team announced. Weaver threw one warmup pitch before the third inning and didn't throw another before exiting. He had turned in two perfect innings, striking out one and throwing just 24 pitches. Weaver owns a 3.50 ERA and 93:33 K:BB ratio in 118 1/3 innings. He's tentatively scheduled to pitch Saturday against the Rangers, but that'll depend on the status of his back.

•Adam Wainwright Extends Scoreless Streak To 14 2/3 Innings In No-Decision: Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright remained dominant Monday night against the Pirates, but was unable to factor into the decision. The right-hander yielded seven hits and three walks while striking out five over seven scoreless innings of a 2-0 victory. Wainwright has not allowed a run over his last 14 2/3 innings of work. He owns a 1.79 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 18 starts (131 innings). He will make his next start Saturday at Milwaukee.

•Bronson Arroyo Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Diamondbacks pitcher Bronson Arroyo informed reporters Monday that he will undergo Tommy John surgery, the team announced. Arroyo underwent an MRI last month, which showed that his UCL had completely come off the bone. The right-hander posted a 4.08 ERA and 47:19 K:BB ratio in 86 innings before landing on the disabled list for the first time in his 14-year career.

Who's Hot - AL Edition
The Oakland Athletics have been receiving all the buzz in the American League and deservingly so but Mike Trout and the Los Angeles have been raking the ball as well. StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst Larry Hertner tells us "Who's Hot" on the diamond.

The 2014 All-Star Game is just around the corner, and there are some teams which are clearly All-Star teams for Major League Baseball betting fans in our eyes. Check out the clubs who have been increasing your bankrolls all year long in the American League.

•Oakland Athletics (56-33, +$1,453) – The A's probably had one of the best teams in baseball before they made the blockbuster move of the trading season, but now that they have RHP Jason Hammel and RHP Jeff Samardzija, they certainly have an elite team which can win the AL West and make a serious play at the World Series. Samardzija was a winner in his first start with his new team to get the club up to 28-15 at home and 22-games above .500 for the season, and he is going to really look for a big time turnaround with his won/loss record after pitching so well and getting so little help with the Chicago Cubs.

Remember too, that this is the only team in baseball averaging five runs per game to boot. For a team which plays in a ballpark that is considered one of the most pitching-friendly in the game, posting 92 home runs, seventh best in the league, is no mistake. These A's are for real.

•Baltimore Orioles (49-40, +$1,207) – We still have a hard time imagining that the Orioles have the best team in the American League East right now. They just took four straight from the Texas Rangers and two out of three at Fenway Park from the Boston Red Sox, and that has propelled them to one of the best money marks in the game.

However, it's interesting to note that all of Baltimore's damage has come away from Camden Yards this year. The Orioles have the best road mark for bettors in the American League with a 25-19 record. It's playing on the road that has consistently gotten the Orioles in trouble in the rough and tumble AL East over the course of the last few seasons, but with more than half of this season gone, that doesn't seem to be an issue any longer.

The question? Does Baltimore really have the goods to go after one of the big time pitchers who could be on the trading block in the next few weeks? That could make all the difference in the world to a team with a real lack of quality at the front of the rotation.

•Los Angeles Angels (52-36, +$1049) – The Athletics had to be looking in their rearview mirrors when they pulled the trigger on the Samardzija deal, as they know that the Halos are just 3.5-games back as we near the All-Star Break.

Whereas Baltimore has been doing it on the road, the Halos have been doing it at home. They are 30-14 at the Big A this year, and what's amazing is the fact that three of those games have been lost because of blown saves. The Angels are quietly remaking their shoddy bullpen, and the move to bring in RHP Jason Grilli might end up being one of the most unheralded, yet important trades of the season. We know that LA can hit the ball. We just don't know if it can close out games when it is ahead. If not for this pen, the Angels would have the best team in baseball.
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Jackpot In July Huge Discounted Offer
We're just over a month away from the start of the 2014 National Football League & NCAA College Football Season and things are coming together very nicely here at StatSystemsSports.net. Along with the NBA Playoffs and MLB, an abundance of hours were spent in May and June diligently working on the upcoming football run. A number of exciting parameters were added to our state of the art database and we’ve uncovered some exciting and highly profitable Situational Analysis. We'll use them all this year and win with them I guarantee you that.

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Betting Notes - Tuesday

National League
•Cubs-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Wood is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
--Cueto is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts.

--33-year old rookie Wada is making first MLB start; he was 9-5, 2.66 in his 16 AAA starts this year.
--Holmberg allowed three runs in 3.2 IP in his only MLB start LY; he was 0-4, 5.28 in 10 AAA starts this year.

--Cubs are 0-3 since Samardzija trade, scoring four runs.
--Cincinnati won five of its last six home games.

--Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.

•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Teheran is 2-1, 2.17 in his last four starts.
--De Grom is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts.

--Braves won nine of their last eleven games.
--Mets lost eight of their last twelve games.

--Four of last five de Grom starts stayed under.

•Phillies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Kendrick is 0-2, 4.71 in his last three starts.
--Peralta is 5-0, 4.74 in his last six starts.

--Philly lost ten of its last thirteen games.
--Milwaukee lost six of its last seven games.

--Six of last seven Peralta starts went over total.

•Pirates-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Worley is 2-1, 2.28 in four starts for Pittsburgh.
--Martinez is 2-0, 2.95 in four starts (only 18.1 IP).

--Pirates won 12 of their last 16 games.
--St Louis is 6-7 in its last thirteen games.

--Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals' last ten home games.

•Padres-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Ross is 1-2, 1.96 in his last three starts.
--Morales is 0-3, 7.54 in his last seven starts.

--Padres won six of their last eight games.
--Colorado lost 18 of its last 21 games.

--Last seven Ross starts stayed under the total.

•Marlins-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Hand is 0-1, 8.74 in three starts this season.
--Nuno was 1-3, 7.65 in his last four starts with Bronx.

--Miami is 12-8 in its last twenty road games.
--Diamondbacks lost five of their last eight games.

--Eight of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total.

American League
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Tanaka is 6-2, 2.30 in his last eight starts.
--Bauer is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.

--New York won five of their last six road games.
--Indians won four of their last six games.

--Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Cleveland games.

•White Sox-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Danks is 4-1, 3.40 in his last six starts.
--Workman is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.

--White Sox won four of their last five games.
--Red Sox lost 12 of their last 17 games.

--15 of last 19 games at Fenway Park stayed under.

•Royals-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Vargas is 4-1, 2.80 in his last eight starts.
--Hellickson is making first '14 start; he is 39-31, 3.70 in 95 career starts.

--Royals won 13 of their last 16 road games.
--Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 13 games.

--Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Tampa Bay games.

•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Peacock is 0-1, 3.68 in his last four starts.
--Irwin is making first MLB start; he was 4-1, 2.01 in his last six AAA starts.

--Houston lost 15 of its last 20 games.
--Rangers lost eight of their last nine games.

--Seven of last nine Peacock starts stayed under.

•Blue Jays-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Dickey is 0-4, 5.08 in his last four starts.
--Skaggs is 0-3, 5.26 in his last four starts.

--Blue Jays lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 16 games; they've won 11 in row at home.

--Eleven of last twelve Toronto games stayed under.

•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Hughes is 1-3, 6.33 in his last four starts.
--Young is 3-0, 1.44 in his last four starts.

--Minnesota lost six of its last seven games.
--Mariners won eight of their last ten games.

--Eight of last nine Young starts stayed under.

Interleague
•Orioles-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Norris is 4-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.
--Fister is 7-2, 2.88 in his last ten starts.

--Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
--Washington won seven of its last nine games.

--Nine of last twelve Washington games went over.

•Dodgers-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Ryu is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
--Verlander is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.

--Dodgers won seven of their last nine road games.
--Tigers lost their last three games, scoring eight runs.

--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Ryu starts; nine of last ten Verlander starts went over the total.

•Giants-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Bumgarner is 1-3, 4.64 in his last five starts.
--Gray is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.

--Giants won four of their last six road games.
--Oakland won ten of its last eleven home games.

--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Bumgarner starts.

•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Winters games; underdogs won five of last seven Fletcher games.
-- Atl-NY-- Six of nine Everitt games went over the total.
-- Phil-Mil-- Underdogs won five of last seven Hoberg games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Eight of last ten West games went over total.
-- SD-Col-- Underdogs won five of last nine Reynolds games.
-- Mia-Az-- 12 of last 17 Davidson games stayed under.

-- NY-Clev-- Four of last five Gonzalez games stayed under.
-- Chi-Bos-- Four of six Joyce games went over the total.
-- KC-TB-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Nelson games.
-- Hst-Tex-- Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under; four of the six had a 1-0 final score.
-- Tor-LA-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Rackley games.
-- Min-Sea-- Last seven Danley games stayed under.

-- Blt-Wsh-- Eight of last eleven Iassogna games stayed under.
-- SF-A's-- Favorites won eight of last ten Hernandez games.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Justin Verlander of the Tigers is 18-4 home in his career team starts during the month of July. While Verlander has fallen off this season after leading baseball in victories over past eight years, Detroit hope his interleague dominance can continue unabated. The right-hander looks to extend his unbeaten run against National League teams to 14 straight starts Tuesday night when Detroit hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•OAKLAND is 18-3 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was OAKLAND 5.1, OPPONENT 2.6.

•LA ANGELS are 13-0 UNDER (+13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.5, OPPONENT 2.6.

•MINNESOTA is 1-14 (-15.8 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.8, OPPONENT 6.9.

•TRAVIS WOOD is 8-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.
The average score was WOOD 7.7, OPPONENT 3.6.

•CHRIS YOUNG is 10-1 UNDER (+9.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 3.1, OPPONENT 2.5.

•JOHN DANKS is 0-10 (-12.7 Units) against the run line versus terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 5.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BOSTON) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(68-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +47.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +114
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.5)

The situation's record this season is: (5-4, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-20, +27.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-74, +44.5 units).

•Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor National League hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an excellent American League starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20), ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games.
(39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +28.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1, money line price: +103
The average score in these games was: Team 3.8, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 28 (54.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +5.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5, +14.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-23, +27.4 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(89-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +46.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 73 (52.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (16-7, +9.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (53-27, +25.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (228-210, +11 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

World Cup Soccer

Brazil +180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Red Sox on Monday and likes the Nationals on Tuesday.

The deficit is 307 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

The Royals zipped right past the Rays Monday night, which enabled Hondo to reduce his deficit to 1,350 sheldons.

Tuesday night: Hondo is counting on the Yanks to connect for a few jacks against Bauer — 10 units on Tanaka.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Mariners -120

Padres +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 15-2 run TUES: Cards w/ Martinez -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jlb sports info

$400 *wcs * germany -ml (+183)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks Pittsburgh at St. Louis The Pirates look to bounce back from last night's 2-0 loss in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 5-0 record in their last 5 games following a defeat. Pittsburgh is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


TUESDAY, JULY 8
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wada) 14.252; Cincinnati (Holmberg) 13.294
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Under


Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.978; NY Mets (deGrom) 15.383
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over


Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.557; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.032
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-170); Over


Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.632; St. Louis (Martinez) 13.697
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Under


Game 959-960: San Diego at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.152; Colorado (Morales) 14.335
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under


Game 961-962: Miami at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Hand) 14.117; Arizona (Nuno) 16.007
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Over


Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 15.762; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.535
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Under


Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.294; Boston (Workman) 17.294
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over


Game 967-968: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 15.762; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.353
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Under


Game 969-970: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.253; Texas (Irwin) 15.789
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Over


Game 971-972: Toronto at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.782; LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.696
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Under


Game 973-974: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 12.718; Seattle (Young) 16.439
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over


Game 975-976: Baltimore at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 14.885; Washington (Fister) 16.214
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155); Over


Game 977-978: LA Dodgers at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.824; Detroit (Verlander) 15.242
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Under


Game 979-980: San Francisco at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.645; Oakland (Gray) 16.932
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks Indiana at Tulsa The Fever head to Tulsa tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Indiana is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


TUESDAY, JULY 8
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Connecticut at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 110.295; Atlanta 116.883
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 156 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9); Over


Game 653-654: Indiana at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.913; Tulsa 111.818
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 3; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under


Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.469; Minnesota 119.525
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 161
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, July 8, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Say what you want about interleague play, but it at least occasionally gives us a possible glimpse at a World Series matchup. That’s the case Tuesday when the Dodgers begin a two-game series in Detroit. The Dodgers are the +200 favorites at Sportsbook.ag to win the NL pennant, while the Tigers had been AL favorites most of the year but have been passed by Oakland in the wake of the stunning trade the A’s made over the weekend (more on that later this week). Here’s a look at the Dodgers-Tigers matchup and four other interesting games.

Dodgers at Tigers (-121, 8.5)

Unfortunately we don’t get to see Clayton Kershaw face either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in a matchup of Cy Young winners in this series. Verlander (7-7, 4.71) goes Tuesday for Detroit, and he paid off for us nicely last time out against Oakland, allowing two runs over six innings in the victory. However, the Tigers haven’t won back-to-back Verlander starts since April. Only a few Dodgers have faced him, none with much success. Adrian Gonzalez is 2-for-14 with three strikeouts. Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-4, 3.08) starts for L.A. The Dodgers have lost his past two starts even though they’ve been quality outings. He is 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA on the road this season. No Tiger has ever faced him.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 7-1 in their past eight interleague starts against right-handed starters. Detroit is 6-1 in its past seven interleague games against lefties. The “over” is 5-0 in Detroit’s past five.

Early lean: This total should be a run lower, so jump on the “under” at -105.



Blue Jays at Angels (-143, 8)

Looking for the next team to make a big trade? I’d put money down if such a prop existed on the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring third baseman Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres. The Jays are going all-in to win the AL East this season (they were heavy after the Cubs’ Jason Hammel), and now they need a bat after losing AL MVP candidate Edwin Encarnacion for 2-4 weeks with a strained quadriceps, a huge blow. He’s hitting .277 with 26 home runs and 70 RBIs. Toronto might expand the deal to get a Padres starting pitcher as well. R.A. Dickey starts for them Tuesday in Anaheim. Dickey (6-8, 4.10) hasn’t gotten a win since June 4. He’s 1-6 with a 4.41 ERA on the road this season. It’s lefty Tyler Skaggs (4-4, 4.16) for the Halos. They have lost his past four starts. He just returned from a month or so on the DL last time out, allowing two runs in 7.2 innings against the White Sox. Skaggs pitched in Toronto on May 10, allowing two earned and four hits in eight innings, one of his better starts of the season.

Key trends: The Jays have lost seven straight against lefties. The Angels are 11-1 in their past 12 at home against right-handers.

Early lean: Toronto clearly struggles against lefties as it is, and now the Jays’ biggest right-handed bat is out. Take the Angels at +155 on the runline.



Royals at Rays (+105, 7.5)

I said on Friday that the Rays might start a sell off if they were swept over the weekend in Detroit, but they won three of four and have won 10 of 12 overall. Now they might keep David Price, especially as they get a key rotation piece back Tuesday in Jeremy Hellickson. He made six minor-league rehab starts off January elbow surgery. His return moves Erik Bedard to the bullpen. Hellickson struggled last season with a 5.17 ERA but was excellent in his two-plus seasons before that, winning the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award. Billy Butler is a career .643 hitter off him in 14 at-bats. Lefty Jason Vargas starts for Toronto. Vargas (8-3, 3.32) blanked the Twins over seven innings last time out. He faced the Rays on April 7 and allowed just a run and four hits over eight innings. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-26 with a homer and six RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Royals have lost five straight Game 2s of a series. Tampa is 5-1 in its past six against lefties.

Early lean: Rays are nice value as a home dog here.



Cubs at Reds, Game 1 (-215, 7)

You have to love those random mid-week afternoon games, and the opener of a doubleheader in Cincinnati is just that. The Reds are the biggest favorites on the board by far behind All-Star Johnny Cueto. He might not pitch in the game, however, because he’s scheduled to start on Sunday as well. Too bad as Cueto (8-6, 1.99) might be in line to be the NL starter as he leads the league in innings and WHIP and is No. 2 in ERA and strikeouts. Cueto lost last time out, allowing three runs and seven hits over seven innings in San Diego. He hasn’t faced the Cubs this season. Anthony Rizzo struggles against him, going 1-for-12. All-Star Starlin Castro is 7-for-30 off Cueto. No current Cub has even gone yard off him. Former Red Travis Wood, perhaps the best-hitting pitcher in baseball, starts for the Cubs. Wood (7-6, 4.62) lasted just 3.2 innings last time out against Boston. He has a 6.16 ERA in nine road starts. One guy he won’t have to worry about is Joey Votto, who appears headed for the DL with a strained left quad.

Key trends: The Cubs are 5-1 in Wood’s past six road starts. The over is 6-2 in his past eight on the road. The under is 4-0 in Wood’s past four against the Reds.

Early lean: Wood can keep this close — I’d go Cubs at -110 on the runline as they will lose by just one.



Giants at A’s (-128, 6.5)

Here’s another potential World Series matchup, although I don’t have a lot of faith in the Giants unless they make a deal or two. Should San Francisco have a lead in the top of the ninth, the team’s new closer is Santiago Casilla, so says Manager Bruce Bochy. He replaces the recently demoted Sergio Romo. Casilla has a terrific 1.08 ERA and three saves. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since mid-May. Lefty Madison Bumgarner starts for the Giants. Bumgarner (9-6, 3.09) has been off his past two starts, allowing five runs in each, both losses. Sonny Gray starts for Oakland. Gray (8-3, 3.08) held the Blue Jays to a run over seven innings last time out, the third straight of his starts that Oakland has won. Gray has never faced the Giants.

Key trends: The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner’s past five Tuesday starts. The A’s are 8-2 in their past 10 against a lefty.

Early lean: I’d bet on Oakland all week as the players are going to be pretty jacked up about that big trade.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nolasco's tight elbow a concern for Twins
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

SEATTLE -- The elbow tightness that hampered righty Ricky Nolasco throughout Sunday's two-inning performance against the New York Yankees could be more serious than originally thought.

Nolasco met with manager Ron Gardenhire before Monday's game at Seattle, at which time the Twins decided to send him back to Minnesota for a Tuesday check-up with team doctors.

The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Nolasco had been battling elbow soreness since spring training but that he had battled through the discomfort without saying much to the team.

Nolasco's 5-7 record and 5.90 ERA are nowhere near what the Twins expected when they signed the 31-year-old starter to a four-year contract worth a franchise-record $49 million in the offseason. He was coming off a 2013 season that included a 13-11 record and a 3.70 ERA with the Marlins and Dodgers.

"Velocity was down," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony told The Minneapolis Star Tribune on Monday. "He hasn't been as effective with his pitches. He hasn't had the same command that he's had. Basically, everything he's done this year is nothing like the reports we had, or he's not pitching the same way he did last year."

Nolasco's next scheduled start would be Friday, but the results of the upcoming medical tests could put that appearance in jeopardy. Nolasco has been a dependable starter during his career, having made at least 26 starts in each of the past six seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rays, Royals love the Over
Stephen Campbell


When the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals meet, you can expect runs to come in bunches. In the last 11 matchups between the two clubs, the Over is 8-2-1. They'll face off again at Tropicana Field Tuesday.

Sportsbooks currently list the Royals as slight -115 road faves with an O/U of 7.5.



Under sizzling with Braves on the road

In the Atlanta Braves' last nine road games through Monday, the Under is a red-hot 8-1. Atlanta renews acquaintances with the New York Mets at Citi Field Tuesday.

The Braves are presently a -139 fave with a total of seven, per Sportsbooks.



Cueto, Wood trending opposite ways

When the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs renew acquaintances in the first game of a double header Tuesday, there are a few pitching trends that need your attention. Travis Wood will be on the mound for the Cubs while Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds.

In Cueto's last six starts against the Cubbies, the Reds are 5-1. In Woods' last seven outings against the Reds, the Cubs are 1-6.

Sportsbooks currently list the Reds as heavy -192 faves with a total of seven.


Nuno to make D-Backs debut Tuesday

Newly acquired pitcher Vidal Nuno will make his first start for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field Tuesday. In 14 starts this season with the New York Yankees, the second-year pitcher is 2-5 with a 5.42 ERA.

Sportsbooks currently have the D-Backs as slight -107 faves with a total of 9.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indians acquire OF Dickerson
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Chris Dickerson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the team announced Monday.

The Indians selected his contract from the Triple-A Columbus roster and also designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment.

Dickerson has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the New York Yankees (2011-12) and Baltimore Orioles (2013).

Dickerson, 32, has appeared in 314 major league games over six seasons from 2008-13 with four different teams since debuting with the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. He was the Reds' 16th-round pick in 2003 out of Nevada-Reno.

Dickerson signed with the Pirates organization in January and has spent the entire season to date with Indianapolis, hitting .309 (73-for-236) with seven home runs and 30 RBIs and in 65 games.

Dickerson will be in uniform Monday night when the Indians take on the Yankees.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tuesday's WCup Semis
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Brazil vs. Germany (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The first semifinal of the 2014 World Cup sees the hosts, Brazil, face Germany at the Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. It’s a fascinating looking contest. If you were told that this would be a semi-final before the tournament, you would expect Brazil to be favourites to qualify at around 4/7. Instead, for a variety of reasons, Luis Felipe Scolari’s men find themselves 21/20 outsiders with Sportsbooks to get to the final. Germany, who defeated a listless France in the quarters, are 4/5.

The main reason for the shift in the market are Brazil’s injuries: Thiago Silva, the captain and the world’s best centre-back, is out with suspension. Replacing him will be Bayern Munich’s Dante, and able deputy. The captain’s armband will move to David Luiz, who should shine in that role. He seems to exhibit much more responsibility in the national shirt than at club level. He is a big-hearted player, and is a natural leader. Thiago Silva’s absence will not have a huge effect.

Not so the absence of Neymar. The Brazilian Golden Boy is out of the tournament after breaking a vertebra in his back. It is an injury that has shocked the country and the World Cup. He has been by far and away Brazil’s most dangerous attacking player, scoring four goals, and being at the centre of most good things Brazil have done going forward. They are not used to playing without him.

Who will replace him? Well, there are three options: first is a straight swap, in the form of either Willian or Bernard. This would keep Brazil in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Oscar shifting inside. Second, there is the possibility of Ramires coming in as a more defensive option, as happened when the Chelsea man played instead of Hulk against Mexico. Third, there is the possibility of Fred missing out. He is mainly in the team because he combines well with Neymar. Apart from that, however, he offers little.

I think the bookmakers have got the prices wrong here. Here are my reasons why.

Brazil are at home. It seems obvious, but it’s easy to forget this in a World Cup. The importance of the home crowd has been immense for the Seleção in the two last 16 games, where they saw off hugely talented opponents in Colombia and Chile. Scolari is a master man-manager, and he is excellent at taking the pressure off the players, while also getting maximum effort out of them. This team is being carried on a tidal wave of national fervour, and the atmosphere inside the Mineirão will be incredible. The Brazilian players are not fazed by the pressure, and so far they have come through their big tests.

Is Germany really that good?

This is a team that went off as outsiders against France, who only really played well once, against Switzerland. Germany have also only really played well once. And that game, a 4-0 win over Portugal, was decided by a dodgy penalty and a stupid red card. They could only draw with Ghana, before a strange 1-0 win over a USA side who still qualified with a defeat. They needed extra time to beat Algeria, who were 2000/1 for the tournament. In the quarters, they didn’t have many chances, and were grateful that France’s momentum had been lost by taking their foot off the pedal in a 0-0 group stage draw with Ecuador.

People will say, ‘but it’s the Germans, they always find a way’. No they don’t. This is not the same Germany as we saw in the seventies and eighties; this team has a history of messing up big semifinals. They were nullified by Spain in 2010, they lost as favourites to Italy in 2006 and 2012. For a team with such consistency as Germany, it is regarded as an aberration there that they haven’t won a major tournament since 1996.

Their defence does not inspire huge confidence. They often play with two centre-backs, Benedikt Höwedes and Jerome Boateng, at full-back, while Per Mertesacker, for all his good qualities, is extremely slow at centre-back. Manager Joachim Löw

has a tendency to pick too many number 10s and to skimp on width, which was their problem in the first half against Algeria. Overall this team is just not as good as at Euro 2012.

So for me 21/20 on Brazil looks the bet. In the 90 minute market, they are 197/100 to win, with Germany 3/2. A draw is 11/5.

Let’s have a quick look at the top goalscorer market, where I’m quite partial to Hulk at 13/2. He had two excellent chances early on against Colombia and, with Neymar’s injury, the Zenit St. Petersburg man will get more responsibility. He may even play up front. David Luiz has scored twice already this tournament and is a threat from set-pieces - one of Brazil’s great strengths. However this seems to have been adequately factored into his quotes of 16/1.

For Germany, Thomas Müller is the favourite at 9/2. He has four goals so far this tournament, and will probably return to his centre-forward role in Belo Horizonte, after dropping back into attacking midfield as Miroslav Klose came in against France.

This is all set to be one of the great World Cup matches. There are so many different back-stories, so many different angles to look at the game that it will keep you rapt. The winner is 90 minutes from the trophy.

Top Bet: Brazil to qualify at 21/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -1.5 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more
76-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=30%)
92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY YANKEES at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), playing on Tuesday
31-14 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 22.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 65-27 (+36.4 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'On the rebound'

Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles play the second of a four-game home/home Interleague set. Nationals taken behind the woodshed spanked 8-2 in the opener look to even the series handing the ball to Doug Fister. Nationals are in good hands. Fister 7-2 on the campaign with a 2.93 ERA over 11 starts (8-3 TSR) heads to the mound 2-0 the past three with a smart 2.57 ERA. The right-hander also commands an impressive 9-3 team start record in the month of July. This being a home game should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs on the Nationals and Fister. The hurler is undefeated at Nationals Park posting a perfect 5-0 mark with a 2.31 ERA. Expect Fister to find a way to slow-down red-hot Orioles as Nats move to 14-4 as home chalk following a loss the previous night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Cubs +115 (GM#2)

Mariners -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

5 STAR SELECTION

Game: Brasil vs. Germany

Brazil -$106

(Risking $530 to win $500) (To advance to Championship. Extra Time and Shoot-outs Included)


3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers


(977) Los Angeles Dodgers -$103

(Risking $309 to win $300) (Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 7.5 Kansas City Royals/Tampa Bay Rays

50* Oakland Athletics -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway


San Diego Padres Even

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GiLzTips

[976] WAS/BAL – UNDER 8 (-105) *S*

[974] SEA/MIN – UNDER 7 (+105) *S*

[957] STL/PIT – OVER 7.5 (-110) = [2]

[982] CIN/CHC – UNDER 7 (+100) = [2] (Game 1)

[960] Rockies ML (-110) = [2]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golazoprediction


Match: Brazil – Germany

BET: Over 2 AH

Odds 1.88

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Oakland -120 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland has won 38 of the last 55 games when playing in the month of July and they have won 53 of the last 83 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers.Oakland has won 103 of the last 155 inter-league home games and they have won 49 of the last 69 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher.

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50* Play New York Yankees -155 over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Los Angeles Angels -140 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL


•Play LA Dodgers +110 over Detroit----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

Justin Verlander has lost 15 of the last 23 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has lost 14 of the last 21 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Justin Verlander has lost 16 of the last 27 home games and he has lost 29 of the last 51 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher.



•Play Arizona +110 over Miami----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
9:40 PM EST

Miami has lost 34 of the last 62 games when playing on a Tuesday and he has lost 32 of the last 58 games when playing in the month of July. Miami has lost 35 of the last 52 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and they have lost 23 of the last 39 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Houston +110 over Texas (MLB TOP PLAY)

Texas is 17-34 when the line posted is between +125 to 125
Texas is 12-21 when playing in the month of July over the last two seasons
Texas is 30-47 after having lost four or five of the last six games


10* Play Pittsburgh +120 over St. Louis (MLB TOP PLAY)

Pittsburgh is 36-27 when playing on a Tuesday
Pittsburgh is 35-22 when playing in the month of July
Pittsburgh is 43-33 after having won six or seven of the last eight games

=============================================

5* Play Minnesota +110 over Seattle (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +110 over Miami (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

MLB Road Warrior 8 Unit Play!

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals

8 Unit Pittsburgh Pirates +100

Pittsburgh(47-42) vs. St.Louis(48-42). V.Worley(2-1) ERA 2.28 vs. C.Martinez(2-3) ERA 3.51. The Pirates are 5-0 last 5 games following a loss while St.Louis is 3-9 last 12 home games as a favorite of 110 to-150. Worley has been pitching outstanding in his four starts this season and the Pirates have been HOT winning last 12 of 16 games and are right back in the hunt for the N.L. Central Division title. Pittsburgh is a 8 Unit Play!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT

Doubleheader Game #2
#951 CHICAGO CUBS @ #952 CINCINNATI - 7:10 PM
•Cubs LH Tsuyoshi Wada (NR) - Wada was added to the Cubs' roster as the 26th man and is set for his major-league debut after posting a 9-5 record and a 2.66 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) at Triple-A Iowa. The 33-year-old veteran of the Japanese leagues averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in nine pro seasons in Japan and has shown the same type of stuff in the minors. Wada has gone at least six innings in 13 of his 16 starts this season, which bodes well for the Cubs' bullpen usage in the doubleheader.

•Reds LH David Holmberg (2013: 0-0, 7.36 ERA, WHIP: N/A) - Holmberg is poised for his second big-league start after an uneven debut for Arizona last season in which he allowed three runs and six hits in 3 2/3 innings. The 22-year-old is still a promising prospect but has had a rough time at Triple-A Louisville, going 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in 10 starts. Those numbers are skewed by a couple of terrible outings early in the season, though, and he has given up only three runs in 22 1/3 innings over his last four starts.

#953 ATLANTA @ #954 NY METS - 7:10 PM
•Braves RH Julio Teheran (8-5, 2.29 ERA, WHIP: 0.952) - Teheran held the Mets to one run on four hits in seven innings Wednesday as Atlanta won 3-1. Since allowing seven runs at Colorado on June 11, Teheran has surrendered six earned runs with five walks and 30 strikeouts in 29 innings across his past four starts. Teheran hit 13 batters in 185 2/3 innings last season, but has plunked only three in 126 innings this year.

--KEY STAT: TEHERAN is 19-5 UNDER (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.5, OPPONENT 2.8.

--TEHERAN is 24-8 UNDER (+14.6 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.3, OPPONENT 3.2.

--TEHERAN is 21-7 UNDER (+12.8 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

--TEHERAN is 16-6 UNDER (+9.1 Units) against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.5, OPPONENT 2.8.

•Mets RH Jacob DeGrom (1-5, 3.77 ERA, WHIP: 1.408) - DeGrom lost at Atlanta on Wednesday, giving up three runs on six hits with eight strikeouts in five innings. The 26-year-old rookie has won just once in his first 10 starts, but has given up three earned runs or less eight times. deGrom has not allowed a homer in his past five starts, and in his past three appearances is 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 18 2/3 innings.

#955 PHILADELPHIA @ #956 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Phillies RH Kyle Kendrick (3-8, 4.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.326) - Kendrick left Thursday’s 5-4 victory against the Miami Marlins in line for the win after allowing two runs on six hits over seven frames, but settled for a no-decision when the bullpen failed to hold the lead. The Houston native, who is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA in nine road turns, has surrendered 16 of his 50 earned runs in the first inning. Kendrick suffered his first loss of the season on April 8 versus the Brewers, falling to 1-5 with a 4.06 ERA in nine appearances (six starts) against them after yielding six runs (four earned) over five innings.

--KEY STAT: KENDRICK is 14-1 against the run line (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 5.7, OPPONENT 3.0.

--KENDRICK is 46-18 against the run line (+22.0 Units) in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 5.3, OPPONENT 4.3.

--KENDRICK is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 1.8, OPPONENT 3.6.

--KENDRICK is 10-1 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 2.7, OPPONENT 3.8.

•Brewers RH Wily Peralta (9-5, 3.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.295) - Failing to factor into the decision for the first time in nine outings, Peralta gave up four runs on nine hits over six frames in the Brewers’ 7-4 setback against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. After going 4-4 with a 2.12 ERA over his first 10 starts, the 25-year-old has managed to go on a career-high five-game winning streak despite posting a 4.50 ERA over that stretch. Peralta registered both of his career starts versus the Phillies over a five-day stretch in June 2013, going 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA in those outings.
______________________________________

Jackpot In July Huge Discounted Offer
We're just over a month away from the start of the 2014 National Football League & NCAA College Football Season and things are coming together very nicely here at StatSystemsSports.net. Along with the NBA Playoffs and MLB, an abundance of hours were spent in May and June diligently working on the upcoming football run. A number of exciting parameters were added to our state of the art database and we’ve uncovered some exciting and highly profitable Situational Analysis. We'll use them all this year and win with them I guarantee you that.

If you haven't registered for our Full-Season Package for the 2014 (NFL & NCAACF) Football Season, you can do so right now at 570-828-4091, "Where The Winning Just Never Stops!" The current rate for football is $2199.00 a 50% saving for signing up today. For those of you that invest on basketball and baseball, you may want to consider our 2014-15 All Season Profit Pass. For an additional $1400, you'll get everything we release in all three sports from July 5th, 2014 to June 30th, 2015 for only $3599. That fee breaks down to less than $300.00 dollars per month and is a number I know you call can handle.

We've got four months left in the Major League Baseball season and we're looking at our 2014 MLB Game of the Year. Normally priced at $350, you can get everything we release on the diamond in July thru the 2014 World Series as an added bonus. While also having access to all our Top-Rated Selections daily by E-mail. July isn't wasting any time so get on board today once again @ 570-828-4091.

"You'll be real Glad you did” -Stan!
_____________________________

#957 PITTSBURGH @ #958 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Pirates RH Vance Worley (2-1, 2.28 ERA, WHIP: 0.940) - Worley's first loss in four starts with Pittsburgh was a tough one to swallow, as he let up three runs on four hits in seven innings against Arizona on Thursday but received little run support. It was his fourth quality start in as many outings since being called up in June. Worley has never pitched in St. Louis but has made two prior starts against the Cardinals, allowing five runs in 11 1/3 frames.

--KEY STAT: WORLEY is 18-4 (+13.0 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WORLEY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.9.

•Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (2-3, 3.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.321) - The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez's first four starts this season, including a 7-2 victory at San Francisco on Thursday in which he allowed a run and struck out a career-high six in five innings. The 22-year-old has yet to get past five frames as a starter in 2014 but owns a 2.45 ERA and has not allowed a home run in 18 1/3 innings in that role. Martinez has given up four runs in 6 1/3 innings over six relief outings in his career versus Pittsburgh.

#959 SAN DIEGO @ #960 COLORADO - 8:40 PM
•Padres RH Tyson Ross (7-8, 2.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.200) - Ross has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 18 starts after entering the season with a 9-26 career record. He tossed a three-hit shutout against Cincinnati in his last turn after going 0-4 over a five-start stretch. Ross is 0-2 with a 2.75 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Colorado.

--KEY STAT: ROSS is 6-16 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.4.

--ROSS is 2-11 against the run line (-15.5 Units) on the road when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5.

--ROSS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 2.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Rockies LH Franklin Morales (4-4, 5.51 ERA, WHIP: 1.542) - Morales has been prone to the long ball and has allowed 17 in just 81 2/3 innings. He is making his 13th start of the campaign and gave up two runs (one earned) and four hits in a five-inning no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last turn. Morales is 1-2 with a 4.87 ERA in 15 career appearances (two starts) against San Diego and the victory came on April 17 when he limited the Padres to one run and four hits in six innings.

#961 MIAMI @ #962 ARIZONA - 9:40 PM
•Marlins LH Brad Hand (0-1, 6.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.759) - Hand will be making his second straight start and fourth overall to go along with 14 relief outings for Miami. He gave up three runs in five innings of a no-decision against Philadelphia on Thursday, limiting the Phils to one walk after issuing 16 free passes in his first 24 innings this year. The Minneapolis native has made one career start against Arizona and was tagged with the loss after walking five and giving up four runs (three earned) in five frames.

•Diamondbacks LH Vidal Nuno (2-5, 5.42 ERA, WHIP: 1.357) - Nuno had an inconsistent stay with New York, ending it with five innings of four-run ball against Tampa Bay at home on Wednesday. He lasted as long as six frames just once in his final six starts with the Yankees after doing so in four of five appearances to end May. Nuno has been better on the road, posting a 4.18 ERA in seven games (five starts) while yielding just two home runs.

Doubleheader Game #1
#981 CHICAGO CUBS @ #982 CINCINNATI - 1:10 PM
•Cubs LH Travis Wood (7-6, 4.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.460) - Wood has not been nearly as consistent as he was a year ago and is coming off one of his rockiest outings of the season. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings and allowed three runs and seven hits Wednesday at Boston, extending his winless streak to three starts. Wood was drafted by the Reds in 2005, spent his first two big-league seasons with Cincinnati, and he is 1-4 with a 3.52 ERA in seven starts against his former team since.

--KEY STAT: WOOD is 9-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7.

--WOOD is 8-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 7.8, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Reds RH Johnny Cueto (8-6, 1.99 ERA, WHIP: 0.860) - Cueto is coming off his first loss in almost a month despite recording his fifth straight quality start in Wednesday's outing at San Diego. He allowed three runs and seven hits over seven innings but was on the wrong end of a 3-0 decision. The All-Star selection is 8-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 19 starts against the Cubs and has won four straight decisions against them dating to 2011.

--KEY STAT: CUETO is 14-4 UNDER (+9.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 3.8, OPPONENT 2.4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Los Angeles Dodgers +115

For as good as Justin Verlander is Hyun-Jin Ryu has been even better. Ryu has been sensational on the road this year and the Tigers really need to get their bullpen in order if they want to make noise in the fall. This could easily be a World Series Preview. Take the Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT

#963 NY YANKEES @ #964 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (12-3, 2.27 ERA, WHIP: 0.970) - Tanaka defeated Minnesota in his last turn after suffering back-to-back losses to Baltimore and Boston. He gave up four runs and a season-worst nine hits in seven innings against the Twins and has given up six homers over his last six outings. Tanaka is 7-1 with a 2.47 ERA in eight road starts.

•Indians RH Trevor Bauer (2-4, 4.42 ERA, WHIP: 1.458) - Bauer is winless in his last three starts and in seven of his past eight turns. He took a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last outing when he gave up three runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings. Bauer lost to the Yankees in 2013 when he allowed three runs (two earned) and six hits in 6 1/3 innings.

#965 CHI WHITE SOX @ #966 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•White Sox LH John Danks (7-6, 4.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.336) - Danks has recorded quality starts in seven of his last eight outings, going 4-2 with a 2.65 ERA over that span. He didn't get a decision last time out but turned in one of his strongest performances of the year with a season-high 10 strikeouts while allowing two runs over 7 2/3 innings. Danks is 3-6 with a 4.97 ERA in 10 starts against Boston but limited the Red Sox to one run and three hits in six innings in a no-decision earlier this season.

--KEY STAT: DANKS is 2-14 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.6.

--DANKS is 0-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 2.4, OPPONENT 5.9.

--DANKS is 3-15 (-11.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.4, OPPONENT 5.4.

--DANKS is 1-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 2.9, OPPONENT 5.5.

--DANKS is 0-10 (-10.9 Units) against the money line versus terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 5.4.

--DANKS is 0-10 against the run line (-12.2 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 2.9, OPPONENT 5.5.

--DANKS is 0-10 against the run line (-12.7 Units) versus terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 5.4.

--DANKS is 2-12 against the run line (-12.8 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.0, OPPONENT 4.7.

•Red Sox RH Brandon Workman (1-2, 4.17 ERA, WHIP: 1.148) - Workman has lost two straight starts and is coming off his worst outing of the year. The 25-year-old was tagged for six runs in four innings in a loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, and he has now surrendered five home runs in his past three starts. Workman picked up the win in his only previous appearance against the White Sox, allowing one run and two hits in 1 1/3 innings of relief last season.

#967 KANSAS CITY @ #968 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Royals LH Jason Vargas (8-3, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.223) - Vargas gave up four hits while tossing seven shutout innings at Minnesota last Wednesday for his fourth win in his last five decisions. The Long Beach State product allowed two or fewer runs in 12 of his 18 starts, including one in eight innings to beat the Rays on April 7. Zobrist is 11-for-26 with a homer and six RBIs versus Vargas, who is 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 10 appearances (nine starts) against Tampa Bay.

--KEY STAT: VARGAS is 31-19 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VARGAS 4.9, OPPONENT 4.2.

•Rays RH Jeremy Hellickson (2013: 12-10, 5.17 ERA, WHIP: N/A) - Hellickson struggled in five rehabilitation starts at Triple-A Durham, going 1-4 with a 7.23 ERA and giving up 38 hits in 18 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old Iowa native looks to get back on track in the majors where he has gone 39-31 in four seasons with a 3.70 ERA. Billy Butler (9-for-14) and Gordon (7-for-14) have hit well against Hellickson, who is 1-2 in six career games (five starts) versus the Royals with a 5.97 ERA.

--KEY STAT: HELLICKSON is 7-0 OVER (+7.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HELLICKSON 4.9, OPPONENT 7.0.
______________________________________________

Jackpot In July Huge Discounted Offer
We're just over a month away from the start of the 2014 National Football League & NCAA College Football Season and things are coming together very nicely here at StatSystemsSports.net. Along with the NBA Playoffs and MLB, an abundance of hours were spent in May and June diligently working on the upcoming football run. A number of exciting parameters were added to our state of the art database and we’ve uncovered some exciting and highly profitable Situational Analysis. We'll use them all this year and win with them I guarantee you that.

If you haven't registered for our Full-Season Package for the 2014 (NFL & NCAACF) Football Season, you can do so right now at 570-828-4091, "Where The Winning Just Never Stops!" The current rate for football is $2199.00 a 50% saving for signing up today. For those of you that invest on basketball and baseball, you may want to consider our 2014-15 All Season Profit Pass. For an additional $1400, you'll get everything we release in all three sports from July 5th, 2014 to June 30th, 2015 for only $3599. That fee breaks down to less than $300.00 dollars per month and is a number I know you call can handle.

We've got four months left in the Major League Baseball season and we're looking at our 2014 MLB Game of the Year. Normally priced at $350, you can get everything we release on the diamond in July thru the 2014 World Series as an added bonus. While also having access to all our Top-Rated Selections daily by E-mail. July isn't wasting any time so get on board today once again @ 570-828-4091.

"You'll be real Glad you did” -Stan!
_____________________________

#969 HOUSTON @ #970 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Astros RH Brad Peacock (2-5, 4.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.513) - Peacock had his worst start in seven weeks last time out, allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings in a loss to Seattle. That followed three consecutive no-decisions in which Peacock gave up a total of four earned runs. Peacock registered a career-high 11 strikeouts but was victimized by a pair of homers in a 4-0 loss to Texas on May 12, dropping his record to 0-3 with a 3.92 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) versus the Rangers.

•Rangers RH Phil Irwin (NR) - Nick Martinez was scratched from his scheduled start due to discomfort in his back, opening the door for Irwin to make his season debut and the second start of his career. Irwin, who was acquired off waivers from Pittsburgh, went 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Round Rock. He made his lone start for Pittsburgh against Cincinnati in April 2013, allowing five runs (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings.

#971 TORONTO @ #972 LA ANGELS - 10:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH R.A. Dickey (6-8, 4.10 ERA, WHIP: 1.357) - Dickey was reached for four runs (two earned) over eight innings in a 4-1 defeat in Oakland on Thursday to lose a fourth straight start for the first time since 2004. He did managed to halt an eight-start streak of giving up at least one homer, including an ugly outing versus the Chicago White Sox on June 27 in which he served up four. The 39-year-old Dickey is 1-6 with a 4.41 ERA in eight starts away from home.

--KEY STAT: DICKEY is 12-3 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DICKEY 3.3, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (9-6, 3.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.198) - Skaggs returned from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for nearly a month to limit the White Sox to two runs over 7 2/3 innings in a no-decision last time out. Skaggs, who gave up 13 runs during a three-start losing streak before going on the disabled list, had his longest outing since beating Toronto on May 10 with eight innings of three-run (two earned) ball. Skaggs has pitched at least seven innings in five of his eight starts.

#973 MINNESOTA @ #974 SEATTLE - 10:10 PM
•Twins RH Phil Hughes (8-5, 3.95 ERA, WHIP: 1.180) - Hughes has lost consecutive starts, giving up 12 runs and 19 hits in 14 innings during the stretch. Even his last victory came in a shaky performance in which he allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings against the Chicago White Sox on June 22. Hughes is 5-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 11 career appearances (eight starts) against Seattle.

--KEY STAT: HUGHES is 12-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 3.9, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Mariners RH Chris Young (8-4, 3.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.109) - Young has been exceptional while going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA over his last four starts. He has allowed four or fewer hits in each of the outings, including two hits (both solo homers) in seven innings while beating Houston last Wednesday. Young is 0-1 with a 3.51 ERA in five career starts against Minnesota, the loss coming May 16 when he gave up five runs and 10 hits in seven innings.

--KEY STAT: YOUNG is 10-1 UNDER (+9.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 3.1, OPPONENT 2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsAtari

MLB PLAYs OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds -1 (-149)

Risking 2.64 to win 1.77 units 1:05pm start

Wood/Cueto must start

The Reds take on the Cubs in a double header and our eyes are on the first game this afternoon. Travis Wood comes into this one with a 1-1, 5.40ERA in his last 3 starts. Overall he’s 7-6 with a 4.62 ERA on a team that’s already out of contention in their division. Wood wasn’t able to get out of the 4th inning after giving up 3 runs and 7 hits in Boston on Wednesday. The Cubs have lost 3 in a row and have only scored 4 runs in those games.

Cincinnati on the other hand has won 5 of 6 home games and 2 in a row. Johnny Cueto is having another All-Star season going 8-6 with a 1.99ERA. He’s also 3-1 with a 2.55ERA in his last 5 starts. In 19 starts against the Cubs, he’s 8-6 with a 2.91ERA.

The price is high but the Reds will get the job done early on with a chance for the Cubs to make their move in the second game between them which we’ll stay far away from.

-------------

New York Yankees -1 (-122)

Risking 3.26 units to win 2.67 units 7:05pm start

Tanaka/Bauer must start

The Yankees are getting their act together and they’ll be riding in with enough confidence especially when they’re backed by one of the best arms in the game right now. New York has won 5 of 6 road games, 2 in a row and 12 of their last 14 over the Indians.

The Yankees are 7-1 when Tanaka starts on the road while the Indians are 3-8 against a righty starter. Tanaka is 6-2 with a 2.30ERA in 8 starts. Overall he’s 12-3 with a 2.27ERA.

Trevor Bauer gets the nod for Cleveland and he’s coming in with a 0-1, 4.91ERA in his last 3 starts. His 2-4, 4.42ERA will be put to the test against a Yankee team that has found its groove in recent games. The Bronx Bombers have brought in 5 or more runs in 4 out of their last 5.

Take the Yankees on the moneyline if you wish, but after taking the Reds for a higher price, I’d recommend buying down to the -1 at -122 odds. Remember to use the excel sheet I’ve given you or the following link to easily calculate -1 lines if your book doesn’t offer it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS INTERLEAGUE PITCHING REPORT

#975 BALTIMORE @ #976 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Orioles RH Bud Norris (7-5, 3.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.161) - Norris has been sidelined with a groin injury but will come off the 15-day disabled list to make his first start since June 21. Norris won his last four starts before getting hurt and allowed a total of two runs over 19 2/3 innings in his last three outings. Norris is 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA in three career starts against the Nationals, but must be wary of Ryan Zimmerman, who is 4-for-11 with a pair of homers against him.

--KEY STAT: NORRIS is 21-8 UNDER (+11.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.5.

•Nationals RH Doug Fister (7-2, 2.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.047) - Fister continues to churn out quality starts for the Nationals, giving up three runs and seven hits over seven innings to beat Colorado on Wednesday. It marked the ninth time in 10 starts Fister has permitted three runs or fewer and the sixth start in that span in which he has pitched at least seven innings. Fister is 3-2 with a 5.30 ERA against Baltimore but has won all five of his home starts this season.

#977 LA DODGERS @ #978 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-4, 3.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.194) - Ryu is 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA in eight road starts, yielding 38 hits in 50 innings overall and lasting at least six innings in his last seven appearances away from home. He has produced a quality start in eight of his last nine outings, including a no-decision against Cleveland at home on Wednesday when he permitted two runs in seven innings while striking out eight. Ryu, who has never faced Detroit, is 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in six career interleague starts.

--KEY STAT: RYU is 23-11 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was RYU 4.9, OPPONENT 3.0.

•Tigers RH Justin Verlander (7-7, 4.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.483) - Since giving up seven runs in back-to-back starts in the middle of June, Verlander has gone 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA over a span of three starts. The former MVP has struck out 20 batters while walking only two over that stretch. The 31-year-old, who will be making his first career start against Los Angeles, gave up 22 runs (18 earned) over three home starts before limiting Oakland to two runs in six innings of a 9-3 victory in Detroit last Wednesday.

--KEY STAT: VERLANDER is 5-11 (-14.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 3.9, OPPONENT 3.8.

--VERLANDER is 16-2 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 6.3, OPPONENT 2.4.

--VERLANDER is 7-14 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 3.6.

--VERLANDER is 8-15 (-17.5 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 4.2, OPPONENT 4.5.

--VERLANDER is 13-5 against the run line (+11.5 Units) in home games versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 6.3, OPPONENT 2.4.

--VERLANDER is 17-5 against the run line (+14.6 Units) in home games in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 6.4, OPPONENT 3.3.

#979 SAN FRANCISCO @ #980 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (9-6, 3.09 ERA, WHIP: 1.197) - Although he managed to drive in a run with a third-inning single to give him a career-high eight RBIs this season, Bumgarner struggled on the mound for the second straight time in Thursday’s 7-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals as he surrendered five runs (four earned)) over five innings. The two-time All-Star selection fell to 3-5 with a 5.16 ERA in nine home outings as a result, but has been much stingier in the same number of starts on the road (6-1, 1.32 ERA). Bumgarner is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two career turns against Oakland.

--KEY STAT: BUMGARNER is 15-6 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 4.6, OPPONENT 2.8.

•Athletics RH Sonny Gray (8-3, 3.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.207) - Gray rebounded from one of his worst starts of the season on June 28, allowing one run and four hits over seven frames in a 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays last Thursday. The No. 18 overall pick of the 2011 draft, who gave up two or fewer runs in seven of his first 10 turns, recorded only his second such outing since May 22 in the win. Gray has yet to factor into a decision despite a 5.14 ERA in three interleague appearances (two starts) and will face the Giants for the first time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

E&B had Np on Monday.

"Mr Chalk" lost in MLB in the American League with the Red Sox -$172/White Sox.

For Tuesday in World Cup Soccer E&B like a $25 play on the Draw +$220 Germany/Brazil.

For Tuesday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Mariners -$120/Twins.

Ben lee is 0-1 -$86 for week thirty seven 169-196-5 -$2975

"Mr Chalk" is 47-35 -$332 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas SI
TUESDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Braves -150 and 10* MLB UNDER 7
20* MLB Orioles +135 and 10* MLB UNDER 8
20* MLB Red Sox -150 and 10* MLB OVER 9.5
20* MLB Twins +110 and 10* MLB OVER 7
20* MLB Braves -150 and 10* MLB UNDER 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAY WINS

PPOD

Atlanta Braves -140 (Teheran)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
New York Mets +116 over Atlanta Braves - pending
Minnesota Twins +100 over Seattle Mariners
(System Record: 56-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 56-41

Soccer Crusher
Brazil PK -105 over Germany
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 605-21, won last game)
Overall Record: 605-497-86

Here are the rest of his baseball plays for today...


Baseball
Kansas City Royals -102 over Tampa Bay Rays
Arizona Diamondbacks -113 over Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals -155 over Baltimore Orioles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRIAN LEE

Brazil vs Germany = DRAW

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VIP-PICKS

Brasil – Germany
Tip: Brasil -0
Odds: 1,85

[golden contender]

Tuesday card has the 100% Inter league Game of the Month and 2 Totals system one is 100% averaging over 12 runs, the other has 8 angles and has cashed over 90%. There is also a World Cup play on ESPN. Free MLB Totals system below-


On Tuesday the free MLB Totals Play is on the over in the LA. Dodgers at Detroit Tigers game. Rotation numbers 977/978 at 7:05 eastern. There are several angles pointing to this game playing over the total tonight.The Tigers have played over in 22 of 31 at home off a home loss by 2 or more runs, 23 of 29 off 3+ losses, 7 of 8 as a home favorite from -100 to -125. The Dodgers are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week and have flown over 6 of 7 times as a road dg off a road favored win by 5 or more runs. There is even a solid database system here that plays to the over for home favorites off a home loss that scored 4 or less runs with no errors, vs an opponent like the Dodgers that are off a road favored win by 5 or more runs. This system has flown over 25 of 37 times and 17 of 21 if the total is 8 or less, Verlander for Detroit has gone over in 6 of 8 at home with a pedestrian like 4.40 era. He will face LA Lefty H. Ryu who could struggle with a solid Detroit lineup that has played over in 9 of the last 12 at home vs leftys. Look for this game to go over the total. The Tuesday card has the Inter league Play of the Month from a Never lost system and 2 big MLB Totals. One totals system is 100% since 2004 and averages over 12 runs, the other has 8 Angles and cashes over 90%. The World Cup Power Play is also on the card. Inbox to Jump on now and Flatten your book like a new Driveway with cutting edge data and systems you wont see any where else. For the free play take the over in the Dodgers at Tigers game. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers


We saw the Los Angeles Dodgers (+102) get on a similar hot streak last season, a run that led them straight into the postseason and NLCS.

It looks like they're up to their same tricks. Don Mattingly's bunch is 6-4 in their last 10, and on June 8, they were 9.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants. Today they're a game up and leading the division.

Much of that turnaround can be attributed to Matt Kemp, who has hit .313/.382/.495 over the last 30 days. Tonight's starter, Hyun-jin Ryu, also deserves plenty of credit as he's been very solid this season, posting a 3.08 ERA with 7.57 K/9.

The first-place Detroit Tigers present a tough matchup tonight, but they've lost three straight and will send Justin Verlander to the hill. In years past, a Verlander start meant a Tigers win more often than not. While Verlander has been better over his last three starts, he still hasn't been the ace we were spoiled by from 2009-2012.

The play is on the Dodgers sending the Tigers to their fourth straight loss.

Tuesday's selections

Dodgers (Ryu) +102 at Tigers

Nationals (Fister) -139 vs. Orioles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Brazil +171 over Germany

(Risking 21 units - To Win: 35.91)

Tuesday, July 8, 4:00 PM EST. A scintillating rematch of the 2002 World Cup, the Brazilians will look to keep their tournament champion aspirations alive without their best player, Neymar. Brazil has been valiant as a host country and the Yellow and Blue would love nothing more than to defend their country and go off as champions, as well as hosts. Standing in their way is the football machine of Germany.

These two teams are quite familiar with each other and Germany is no stranger to competing at this superior level. The Germans have qualified for the last four consecutive semifinals. However, Germany has been sent off in their last two efforts as the third place winner. Undoubtedly, this is an impressive feat and a great resume builder for the Deutschland. However, Joachim Loew would only hope to push this German side to the next level and capture their first World Cup in 24 years.

The Brazilians have been galvanized by the loss of their heroic star Neymar but with a rabid home crowd standing behind them, the Brazilians figure to dig down even deeper. Such a feat would be fitting for a country that has been torn apart by politics and dissension. Now, the Yellow and Blue stand as one and it would be hard to bet against Brazil in any contest from here on out. The key to this match-up will be how the German full backs handle the advances of Oscar and Hulk, who have both been brilliant in their campaign.


FIFA World Cup

Netherlands +134 over Argentina


BEST LINE: Pinnacle +134 (Asian Handicap)

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.34)

This is an (Asian) Handicap wager. In other words, if the game is tied after regulation time, it’s a push.

Lionel Messi is the best footballer in the world and there is no disputing that. However, the Dutch are on a mission and seemingly cannot be stopped. Despite all the adversities and peril that has befallen the Dutch, they seemingly have the Luck of the Irish. The Netherlands escaped Mexico, scoring two goals in the final ten minutes of their fixture, capped off by a penalty kick that was certainly controversial. Nevertheless, Wesley Sneijder has been a catalyst for the Lions, as he has struck more wood than a carpenter. The Dutch overcame the mighty Ticos of Costa Rica in a penalty shootout, despite harsh luck and an apparent kismet from the Soccer Gods for Costa Rica. The Dutch have been contemplating and pontificating over their 2010 defeat against Spain and seemingly it has been the motivating force behind this Robin Van Persie led squad. The Dutch have another great playmaker in Arjen Robben, who has also been an offensive creator for this club throughout the tournament.

There is no clear cut favorite for this fixture. Argentina is a significant favorite in this because of the geographical orientation of the FIFA tournament and the play of one, Lionel Messi. However, Argentina has lived dangerously throughout the tournament and seems like a human team subtracting number 10 from the equation. Argentina has not had any convincing results throughout the tournament and it’s for that reason we give the Dutch a great chance to win this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Florida @ ARIZONA

ARIZONA/Florida over 9 -104

(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Vidal Nuno started 2014 in the Yankees bullpen but injuries soon pressed him into the starting role in which he’s been the very definition of

Vidal Nuno started 2014 in the Yankees bullpen but injuries soon pressed him into the starting role in which he’s been the very definition of unpredictable: 36% dominant starts, 36% disasters. In 14 outings, Nuno has a 4.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 6.7 K’s/9—surface stats comparable to those belonging to McCarthy, the pitcher he was traded for. The uh-oh contrast is with the 15 HR each has given up but Nuno’s have been surrendered in 32 fewer innings pitched. With Chase Field only slightly less accommodating to power hitters than Yankee Stadium, it’s unreasonable to expect the lefthander’s 43% fly-ball tilt (and 1.7 hr/9) to yield better results in his new home park. Unless you are a proponent of the “change of scenery” theory in which traded players are invigorated, this doesn’t have the look of an upgrade for the Diamondbacks. Nuno’s low 33% groundball rate does not play well at this venue and Arizona backers should approach Nuno with caution.

Brad Hand did not make the most of his two starts in April, as both ended in disasters and he was quickly removed from the rotation. After spending more than a month in the bullpen, he was sent to AAA-New Orleans to be stretched out and start games. He made four starts down there, going 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 22/9 K/BB in 22 IP. His career 5.40 xERA and 35%/20%/45% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are not indicators he will have success this time around either. In 29 innings split between the pen and starting, Hand has walked 17 batters, a 6.46 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. One of these two teams may go over this number all on their own.


Chicago @ CINCINNATI (gm 2)

Chicago +118 over CINCINNATI

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Listed pitchers must go. Cincinnati has called up David Holmberg to start the second game. This will be Holmberg’s second career start, following his August 2013 debut. The 2014 season has been his first Triple-A action and things are not trending in the right direction. He’s lost some of his previously excellent command and feel for the strike zone. To date, Holmberg has a career-high 4.5 BB/9 along with a career-low strikeout rate of 6.1 K’s/9. Holmberg is a tall, physical lefty who showed great progress between the ’11 and ’13 seasons. Prior to his recent poor performance, the scouting book on him was a pitcher with plus command who works downhill throwing lots of strikes and inducing grounders. He comes at hitters with an overhand delivery that has some deception. His three-pitch arsenal includes a low-90s mph sinking fastball, an average slider and a plus change-up. Holmberg repeats his mechanics well with good mound presence and pitch sequencing. He’s expected to be with the Reds for just this one start and then should have the opportunity to make the necessary adjustments at Triple-A to get things trending back in the right direction. Holmberg has made only 10 starts at Louisville because he missed time between April and May and May and June with a couple of nagging injuries. Scouting reports tend to vary quite a bit on Holmberg. Some love his solid command and project added velocity for his large frame, while others are leery of control lefties who dominate lower levels with a plus change-up. Over 647 career innings, Holmberg owns a 3.53 ERA, 7.9 K’s/9 and 2.7 BB/9. At Louisville in 10 starts this year his numbers get a lot uglier. In 10 games started at Triple-AAA Louisville, covering just 44.1 innings, Holmberg is 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA, a .324 oppBA and a BB/K split of 22/30. Even against the Cubbies, this is not a guy you want to spot a tag with.

For the first week of the Pacific Coast League season, Chicago Cubs pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada was outstanding. He went 13.1 innings over two starts, allowing just one run on seven hits, issued one walk and he struck out 18(!). Unsurprisingly, then, the lefty was named the PCL Pitcher of the Week. He followed up the hot start with another eight innings, allowing one earned run on three hits and one walk. He struck out five. Wada is absolutely dominating at AAA, to put it mildly. Under normal circumstances, the hype meter would have turned up on a “prospect” like Wada, with folks wondering, “Hey, when are we going to see that guy get a crack in the bigs?” Thing is, circumstances are unlike most. For one thing – the biggest thing – he’s already 33. That’s not prospect age by any stretch and the fact that he hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues would normally count as a strike against a guy that age. But there’s a however to the however: Wada pitched for a decade professionally in Japan before coming over to the U.S. He would have made his MLB debut around age 31, which is relatively normal for a Japanese pitcher coming over to MLB (dominant Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma, for example, made his debut at 31, and Kyuji Fujikawa came to the Cubs at 32). He’s not so old, then, in that regard. Wada came over on a two-year deal with the Orioles and almost immediately needed Tommy John surgery. It took him the normal recovery time, and when he was ready to pitch again, the Orioles opted to hold him down at AAA (where, by late 2013, reports had him pitching very well). The Cubs got him on a minor league deal after the season and after 16 starts at Triple AAA Iowa, he’s ready. The Pacific Coast League is known for extremely friendly hitters parks and all Wada has done is post a 2.66 ERA with a BB/K split of 26/105 in 105 innings. Wada has ice in his veins and after such a long wait to finally pitch in the majors, don’t be surprised if he dominates and Reds lineup that can easily be dominated. Wada is such a better option here.


Pittsburgh @ ST. LOUIS

ST. LOUIS -1½ +180 over Pittsburgh

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 200.00)

Sometimes you are on the right side of a game but poor luck bites you where the sun doesn’t shine. That was certainly the case last night when the Pirates were spraying balls all over the yard on Adam Wainwright but failed to score. The Pirates were hot coming into this series opener but a loss like that is frustrating and often carries over into the next game. We now find a very sneaky play by spotting 1½-runs and taking back big juice with Carlos Martinez against Vance Worley. Worley is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA but that extremely small sample size has him way overvalued. Worley had a very forgettable 2013. The only positives coming out of his 7.21 ERA, 1.99 WHIP year were a career high in GB% (47%) and a slightly improved walk rate. Demoted to Triple-A Rochester, Worley was subsequently shut down in July with shoulder inflammation and did not return. His 13.50 ERA in spring 2014 opened the door to starting fresh with a new club. At Triple-A Indianapolis this year before the call-up, Worley went 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA in seven starts. His walk rate is down but so is his groundball rate, which now stands at 41%. Current Cardinals have hit .367 against Worley in just 30 career AB’s. Still, this is a pitcher that’s getting a little too much credit and that provides us with this value play.

Carlos Martinez is the opposite of Worley in that he’s not getting enough credit because of his misleading surface stats. Martinez has appeared in 34 games this year but has only made four starts, as he slowly transitions from reliever to starter. Martinez is much better suited to start. This talented youngster peaked in September of last year, parlaying a 3.48/3.13 ERA/xERA over 9 appearances into a post-season roster spot. The Cardinals said that a starting role would be in his future and that future is now. It's only four starts but Martinez isn't showing signs of running out of gas in the later innings despite tossing 59, 74, 82 and 88 pitches. You’ll notice the progressive increase in pitches thrown. His swing and miss rate is at an elite 13% and he's inducing grounders at an off-the-charts rate of 57%. The wildness in his first 2014 start (four BB) didn't happen in the second start (1 BB) and he’s allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts. Martinez has not been taken yard in any of his four starts and has not been taken yard in his last 13 appearances. You can spot -117 in this game and still get value. It’s a good bet. We’re going to get a little greedy and spot the 1½-runs with a huge take-back because Carlos Martinez is ready for the show and has a chance to absolutely dominate. The same can’t be said for Vance Worley and his 4% swing and miss rate.


Toronto @ L.A. ANGELS

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +136 over Toronto

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)

The Blue Jays are not only cold as ice with just two wins in their past 10 games and just six wins over their past 20 but they have lost five straight and have scored two runs or fewer in all five games. Furthermore, they are brutally awful against lefties and will face another one here in Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs is 4-4 in 13 starts with a 4.13 ERA. However, he threw a beauty against the South Side at U.S. Cellular in his last start after spending the previous month in the minors. Let's hope his frequent flyer account is in good standing, as he made no less than seven round trips from Arizona to exotic minor league destinations over the past two seasons. That toughens a guy up. Skaggs has shown flashes of brilliance, but his dominant start/disaster start split % highlight his current feast-or-famine ways. Still just 22, still a bright future, Skaggs is still very much a work in progress but his 53% groundball rate and recent improvements in all other areas reveal he’s close. Against these reeling Blue Jays, he has another great opportunity.

R.A. Dickey has posted some mediocre stats after 18 starts (4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). His base skills show that poor command has been the issue with an average of four walks per game. His horrible skills while pitching from the stretch have torpedoed his overall skills, as he has the fourth-worst skills in MLB with runners on base. R.A. Dickey is not an enigma. He throws knuckleballs and if they’re dancing he has a chance. If they are not, he has little chance and now he’ll face one of the hottest clubs in the game. It’s also worth noting that Dickey is 1-6 on the road with a 4.41 ERA and for the Blue Jays, the All-Star break can’t get here soon enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

MLB

Cincinnati Reds (Game 1)/Atlanta Braves ML parlay

Los Angeles Dodgers +105

Kansas City Royals -113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Free Pick

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals 8:15 PM Eastern

Pick: Game Total UNDER 8 -115

No team has gotten more mileage out of their pitching staff than the St. Louis Cardinals over the last month. They shutout Pittsburgh last night 2-0, and it was their 7th shutout since June 7th, just a month of games. The Cards have also held nine other opponents to 2 runs or fewer. Pittsburgh is certainly capable of matching them on the mound, as the Pirates have allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. St. Louis has played to an 8-1-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher, and are 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 games vs. a winning team. The Pirates have seen just 6 of their last 21 road games vs. a winning team make it OVER the total. Both teams have shown mediocre offenses with stellar pitching, whgich is a recipe for a low-scoring game. This one stays UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB

Cincinnati Reds (gm1)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Seattle Mariners

Under 10.5 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies



WNBA

Indiana Fever +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Linesheet Group


Daily Dog Parlay

New York Mets +135
Cleveland Indians +145
Chicago White Sox +150

Grand Slam Picks

Texas Rangers -140

Los Angeles Angels -160

Oakland Athletics -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2013 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

Vance Worley has produced a team record of 8-0 (+$800) following a starter where he allowed four or fewer hits.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Mets are 1-12 ($+1,088) since August 22, 2007 as a home dog when they are off a walk off win.

CHOICE TREND:

The Cardinals are 10-0 since June 05, 2011 as a home favorite after a win that was tied after six innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 19-3 since June 22, 2011 as a home favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1410.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #653 Take Indiana (+3) over Tulsa (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports


3-unit Play Take #969 Houston Astros (+125) over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Soccer
3* Play. Take Germany (-115) to Qualify over Brazil (Tuesday, July 8 @ 4 PM EDT)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #973 MIN/SEA Under 7 +100 Danley 2 Over/8 Under L10gms 80%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

MLB

Atlanta Braves


World Cup

Germany -110 no draw bet


Freeloader

Washington Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

10* Atlanta Braves -155

8* Washington Nationals -145

7* Milwaukee Brewers -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Rockies had been real good at home, but they have hit a major slump and are a major league-worst 3-18 since June 16 after dropping seven of their last eight games. They face first time all star Tyson Ross (7-8, 2.93 ERA) and has recorded 111 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings and a .228 opponent's batting average to rank among the NL's top 10 in both categories. The Padres are on a bit of a roll having won 6 of 8 and took the opener last night 6-1. They face Franklin Morales who has had struggles of his own, 0-3 with a 6.81 ERA over his last seven starts dating to May. These are not the same Rockies that were dominant at Coors. the Sharps say....


San Diego Padres -115 - 3 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Brokers (YouWinNow)

MLB BASEBALL ELITE INSIDE INFO WINNER - ONE

928 Oakland w/Chavez -165 10:05 EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tapin Sports


Team Totals 11-3 last 14


Cubs Under 3 runs - 145 GM 1


SF Under 3 runs - 115


Dodgers Under 4.5 runs - 120


Red Sox Under 5 runs - 115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks


Raider

LA Dodgers/Detroit Under 8.5 I know both offenses generally perform well and Justin Verlander has had his struggles. This is why we are seeing such a high number here. Verlander has performed better his last 3 starts and Ryu's road numbers are incredible. I'm going with the Under today.


Leans

Cincinnati -1.5 (+105) vs Chicago Cubs - Game 1 of the doubleheader

Arizona/Miami Over 9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes

I've made a preview for today's game between Brazil and Germany w/ a small Prop Play. I'll release a Premium Play as well (it can be upgraded into a Top Play), the Final Update will be released @3PM EST.


Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Germany


This contest is probably the toughest game to handicap in this tournament and rightfully so, the odds offered are almost a pure 50/50 proposition.

We have two teams with complete different styles going against each other…

While Germany wants to play a slow-paced patient passing style in which they control the ball possession (we can consider their style as an adapted version of Pepe Guardiola’s Tiki-Taka style), Brazil wants to play in a frenetic tempo w/ quick turnovers to use their good pace of their midfielders and wingers.

This preferred style of Brazil was well noticed in their last game vs. Colombia: they pressured pretty high on the field, they didn’t allow Colombia to generate build-up plays from behind and they completely controlled the game in the first 60 minutes of the game!

2 important conclusions from that game:

1) Brazil was supper aggressive without the ball and committed the absurd number of 31 fouls but received "only" 2 yellow cards! It was remarkable to watch Fernandinho not receiving a single yellow card after some awful tackles against James Rodriguez! Why? Well, they were clearly protected by the referee who allowed them to be super physical. Oddly enough, it was Brazilian start Neymar who got injured in that game and is OUT of the competition. This kind of “soft” refereeing was highlighted all over the world and we have a quick answer from FIFA: (FIFA reject claims that World Cup referees have been told to be more lenient | FOX Sports on MSN)

For this contest, I don’t think that the referee will be so “patient and soft” after that Colombia vs. Brazil game… I’m making a small play w/ OVER Bookings in here!

2) Brazil’s pressure on the midfield was really impressive to start the game, they were literally everywhere! However, we could see that they didn’t have “legs” late in the game and this team really can’t control and protect a lead without putting themselves in some tough problems. Colombia controlled the game in the last 20 minutes of the game as the lack of stamina in several Brazilians’ players was well noticed. Brazil plays w/ a lot of heart and emotion but they seem to have some problems in managing the flow of the game.

Well, if Brazil plays w/ intensive passion, the Germans are a more cerebral team. Like Brazil, the Germans had the lead early in their last game against France. However, unlike Brazil, they simply didn’t allow the French side to do anything against them in the second half!

The absence of Thiago Silva is important for Brazil as Dante will replace him and will play @left-center back. Marcelo will be the left full-back and IMO, this Dante-Marcelo partnership on the left is the weakest link of Brazil’s defense, and the Germans have a potent right side w/ Lahm + Muller who will try to explore such potential weakness.

NOTE: I'll release a Premium Play for this contest, but first I want to confirm both teams' starting lineups for today, so the final update will be released around @3PM EST +/-.


Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Single Dime Play) on Over 3.5 Bookings (Yellow Cards) @ +100 / 2.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella


Brazil vs Germany PROP wager

Will both Brazil & Germany score?? "Yes" +100 | "No" -130

YES (+100)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

TOTALS CRUSHER & TOP SIDE; 2-0 PACK

New York Yankees -150

OVER 9.5 -105 Chicago White Sox/Boston Red Sox

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BIGFELLA
Spittin-Winners

MLB $5 ATLANTA -½ -105 1ST 5

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Robert Ferringo

World Cup Soccer

Had you played all his futures at the beginning then play this to guarantee a small profit:

4* NED World Cup winner (+380)


If you haven't played his futures at all then play this:

6* Germany World Cup winner (+260)

6* Argentina World Cup winner (+245)

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Steve Fezzik World Cup
Germany 4* +180 in regulation

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Maddux Sports

Twins

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H&H Sports
5* Interleague GOY - Nationals

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Primetime Insiders

4* Star GOM

Minnesota +106

Tonight in Seattle we have the Twins taking on the Mariners. The Mariners took the first game of the series behind the great pitching of Iwakuma however the Mariners send a very overrated pitcher to the mound in Young tonight. Chris Young's numbers look good on the surface (8-4 record with an ERA just north of 3.) However, when you really dig down and look at his numbers they are mediocre at best and is due for a regression. It may not seem like this game is going to be the game he regresses as he is 5-1 at Safeco but our system is calling for a huge regression tonight similar to the last time Young faced the Twins giving up 5 runs and 10 hits. On the mound for the Twins is Phil Hughes who was torched by the Yankees where he gave up 7 earned runs but overall he has been solid on the mound for the Twins and is slightly underrated according to our system. Phil is very dependent on this above average fastball and cutter. This should bode well for Phil tonight as the Mariners are bottom of the barrel on hitting fastballs and even worse at hitting cutters. Chris Young is one of the most frequent fastball throwing pitchers in baseball throwing it on almost 70% of occasions. The Twins are one of the best fastball hitting teams in baseball ranking at #7. If he decides to throw more sliders this could give the Twins some trouble as they are just slightly below average against sliders. Overall, this is a great spot for the Twins and Primetime Insiders feels so confident that it is our 4* Underdog GOM!

3* Plays

LAD +101 **This plays grades out just slightly lower than our Twins play but still a very strong play**

San Diego and Colorado Under 10.5 **We cashed it last night with Kennedy on the mound now we got Ross on the mound who has been just as good if not better. The winds are blowing out but increased humidity should keep the ball in the yard tonight**

2* Plays

Philadelphia and Milwaukee Under 8.5 **If Kendrick can get out the of the first inning this number should stay under. Peralta has been torched of late posting an ERA over 5 in his last 7 starts but should be able to come back down against the Phillies.

NYY -1.5 +100 **This may seem like a lot of juice to lay but this is a great spot for Tanaka and the Yankees. I see this game similar to the Reds and Cubs game earlier. You have the better team throwing out their best pitcher**

1* Plays

Baltimore +130

Chicago and Boston Under 9.5

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Bestbetpick

JoshDaniels

1* Colorado Rockies

1* ST Louis Cardinals

1* Washington/Baltimore Under 8

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King Creole

Seattle Under 7

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Greg Shaker

St Louis -115

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MrProfitsPicks

NEW YORK YANKEES VS. CLEVELAND INDIANS

PICK: NY YANKEES (-150)

RISK: 2 UNITS

MINNESOTA TWINS VS. SEATTLE MARINERS

PICK: SEATTLE (-121)

RISK: 1 UNIT

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Sports Cash System

Play of The Day

MLB

Atlanta Braves -146 over the New York Mets

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MLB

Tuesday, July 8


Unders cash for bettors in Monday's games

The Under had a huge day for bettors Monday, posting a record of 10-4 on the day. Obviously pitching had a big hand in that performance as there were five shutouts posted in those 14 ball games.

Tuesday has a full slate of 15 games on the board with totals ranging from 7 to 10.5.


Rough weather in forecast at Great American Ball Park

There is some rough weather in the forecast for Tuesday's only afternoon Major League Baseball action at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

The Reds (-213, 7.0) host the Chicago Cubs where there are expected thunderstorms and a strong 14 mph wind blowing across the field from first to third base. There is also a 71 percent chance of rain.


The crazy umpire total stat you need to know

When umpire Kerwin Danley is calling balls and strikes, teams are combining to score an average of just 5.33 runs per game, the lowest average runs for any umpire with at least 10 games at home plate. Not surprisingly teams are 3-11 over/under for the season, including going under the last eight games in a row.

This isn't just a trend for this season. In Danley's last 53 games as the home plate umpire, the under is an incredible 41-10-2.

Danley will be behind the plate Tuesday night when the Minnesota Twins visit the Seattle Mariners, with a total currently at 7.0


Over trending when wind blows to left at this park

The Over has been a hot play when wind blows out to left field at Detroit's Comerica Park this season. All told, the Over/Under record is 5-1 with an average of 1.57 home runs per game with hitter-friendly wind out to left.

That just happens to be the case with the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Tigers for an interleague clash as forecasts predict winds of 15 mph out to left field Tuesday evening. The total is currently at 8.5 for this matchup.

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The Shadow Sports Syndicate

MLB

Atlanta Braves

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Tiger

Minnesota Twins +.5 Run 1st 5 Innings

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

AL Power Play Winner — Chicago White Sox

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DHayes2

2* Twins +106

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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

Boston Red Sox ML

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#962 Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total OVER 4.5 -110

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Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Colorado Rockies -110

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GiLzTips

. [1968] TB/KC '1st 5' O4 (+100) *S*

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Larry Ness 10* pitching mismatch: Seattle

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Sheep

San Francisco Giants +140 $1000

Under 8.5 Los Angeles Dodgers/Detroit Tigers $1000

Tampa Bay Rays -105 $1000

Cleveland Indians RL +1.5 -120 $1000

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Rooster

Colorado Rockies +105

Over 8 even Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals

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ItalianKingSports

Arizona Diamondbacks -112

Minnesota Twins +111

Kansas City Royals +100

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Kelso 100 Sea