7-12-14

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::clap::

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Brazil vs. Netherlands Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides


In theory, this is the match that nobody wants to play, yet for Brazil it could prove to be a blessing, giving Felipe Scolari's men a chance to take a small step back from the humiliating brink they were thrust towards by their semifinal destruction at the hands of a Germany.

The Netherlands, meanwhile, with a youthful and inexperienced squad never expected to get this far, so once they get over the agonizing penalty kick loss to Argentina, the Dutch should be able to go out and enjoy themselves in Saturday’s third-place World Cup game (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The LVH SuperBook offers the host at +115 on the three-way result (bet is official after 90 minutes plus injury time), while Holland can be backed at +215 and the draw is priced at +275.

With the pressure off for both teams, we could be in for an entertaining game and one which the Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s certainly think will be full of goals. The LVH opened the total at 3 goals, with OVER priced as the -130 favorite and UNDER offered at odds of +110.

Outside of Las Vegas, the 'yes' side of the ‘will both teams score’ props is offered a odds of just 1-to-2.

The latter especially may well attract some attention from some bettors happy to back shorter prices, yet for our purposes a more intelligent selection is necessary.

While Brazil may have more motivation for the game, the Netherlands remain a potent attacking threat, particularly on the break.

Against Argentina they were supremely defensive, concerning themselves almost exclusively with neutralizing the threat of Lionel Messi to the detriment of their attacking play.

Expect that to change drastically against Brazil and for Louis van Gaal to adopt a far more offensive approach, similar to that deployed in the early part of the tournament.

All this means that the price of -110 for Holland to score in the first half – again, offered outside of Nevada – looks extremely attractive, especially considering that Brazil have conceded first half goals in four of their six matches at the tournament.

At the LVH, the Netherlands are +120 as a pick 'em on the first-half line, with the first-half total posted at 1.5 goals (OVER +120, UNDER -140).

Bet of the day: Holland to score in the first half at -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 3

Calgary (1-0) @ Toronto (1-1)-- Underdogs won last eight series games SU, with Argonauts winning seven of the eight; Calgary won here LY, snapping four-game skid in Skydome, with losses by 3-2-3-13 points-- four of those five games went over total. Stampeeders had bye last week after 29-8 win at home over Montreal in Week 1. Argos threw ball for 407 yards in easy home win over Saskatchewan last week, after they got waxed 45-21 in opener at Winnipeg.

BCLions (0-2) @ Saskatchewan (1-1)-- Lions were outscored 38-12 in last three halves after leading opener at half; they've turned ball over eight times (-6) in two games- they lost four of last five visits to Regina, losing 29-25 (+4) here in playoffs last fall. Ten of last eleven series games stayed under total. Riders got blasted 48-15 in Toronto last week, giving up 568 yards, 407 thru the air. Riders have 280 rushing yards in two games; BC allowed 203 yards on ground in loss at Montreal last week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Motivation certainly plays" into World Cup third-place odds
By JASON LOGAN

Never has a consolation game meant so much to one team and so little to the other. That’s the dilemma sportsbooks are facing with Brazil taking on the Netherlands in a battle for third place at the 2014 World Cup Saturday.

Brazil, still stinging from an embarrassing 7-1 semifinal loss to Germany in front of its home fans, is desperately looking for a chance to redeem itself. The Netherlands, losing out on a spot in the final on penalty kicks to Argentina, couldn’t care less about the outcome of Saturday’s consolation match.

"I think that this match should never be played," Dutch coach Louis van Gaal told the media. "It has nothing whatsoever to do with sports. I've been saying this for 10 years. But anyway, we will just have to play that match."

"They can keep it. Only one prize counts and that is becoming world champion,” forward Arjen Robben added.

That motivation – or lack thereof – has been reflected in the line movement for the third-place game. Brazil opened at +107 at online sportsbook Pinnacle Sports, but is now dealing dealt at -116 despite the Netherlands drawing the majority of the early betting action.

“Money makes our markets move, so we'll continue to watch what comes in, but motivation certainly plays a role,” says a spokesman for Pinnacle Sports. “Lineups will be of critical importance to the Brazil-Netherlands outcome, and with the two teams expressing vastly different attitudes towards the match, it wouldn't be surprising to see those attitudes reflected in lineup composition. We're accounting for that possibility in our market management, and bettors should certainly be doing the same when deciding which nation to back.”

The Brazilian side has been in mourning ever since Tuesday’s crushing defeat. The host nation came into the tournament as a +250 favorite to win the World Cup, but now has a coach - Luiz Felipe Scolari – likely managing his final game for the national team Saturday. That has, however, made this matchup with the Netherlands all the more important.

"We haven't had a good campaign. We were consistent, which is why we reached the semifinals, but we didn't play the kind of enchanting football associated with Brazil,” Scolari told reporters. "Now we need to approach Saturday's game as if it were the final and finish the World Cup smiling, with a victory. It is not going to lessen the pain, but it is important."

The total for Saturday’s third-place game is set at three goals (Over -102, Under -106). Per Sports Insights, since 1978, every World Cup third-place match has had at least three goals scored, with an average of 4.22 goals per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup 2014 Third-Place Playoff betting: Brazil vs. Netherlands
By PINNACLE SPORTS

Pinnacle Sports has everything you need to wager on World Cup 2014. Find odds and info on all the exciting soccer action in Brazil.

Read this Third Place Playoff betting preview for an insight into how you could find an edge in determining which team will claim the consolation prize of third place.

World Cup Third-Place Playoff betting: Brazil vs. Netherlands (July 12)

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/Resources/uploadedimages/Pinnacle_Sports/Sportsbook/Betting_Articles/2014/06-2014/World_Cup_KO/world-cup-knockout-stage-bra-ned.jpg

On Tuesday night, history was made as Brazil suffered their largest ever defeat at a World Cup finals. A merciless German side put seven goals past Julio Cesar, three more than he had conceded throughout the rest of their World Cup campaign.

Phil Scolari’s Brazilian side will have to put in an incredible performance in their third-place playoff to even try and ease the pain of being out-classed on their own turf in their disastrous Semi-final match.

The Netherlands will be equally as disappointed to be playing in the third-place playoff rather than Sunday’s Final in Rio. They were deadlocked with Argentina after 120 minutes of play, and misses by Ron Vlaar and Wesley Sneijder in the penalty shootout means they will have to wait at least four more years for their first World Cup trophy.

Brazil are the favorites on the 1X2 at Pinnacle Sports, with odds currently being offered at 2.220 for the hosts to win in normal time. Netherlands are available at 3.280, while the OVER/UNDER total has been set at three goals.

For outright bettors, 1.694 is available on Brazil finishing in third place by any means – an implied probability of 59.03 percent, while the Netherlands are available at 2.330, a 42.92 percent chance of another upset.

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World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Netherlands

Brazil vs. Netherlands (+120, +230, Draw +280)

Brazil and the Netherlands both reached Saturday's World Cup third-place game in heart-wrenching fashion. The host Brazilians were throttled 7-1 by Germany in their final four game on Tuesday afternoon, leaving their millions of fans - not to mention the soccer world - dumbfounded and disappointed. The Dutch suffered a very different defeat, dominating play against Argentina but ultimately dropping the semifinal showdown 4-2 on penalties.

With neither team all that interested in playing for third, it will be interesting to see how both clubs approach the match. Both teams are expected to make changes to their starting lineups, favoring younger players or those who have seen limited action so far in the World Cup over established stars who may be tired or disinterested in the match. The Dutch, in particular, may struggle to regroup as they remain without a World Cup championship to their credit.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

WORLD RANKINGS: Brazil: No. 3; Netherlands: No. 15.

INJURY REPORT: Brazil: F Neymar is sidelined for the match with broken vertebrae. Netherlands: None.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Brazil will still be licking their wounds after the mauling by Germany, I can see this game meaning more to Brazilians, Louis Van Gaal (Dutch coach) has already made it clear that the 3rd place play-off game is pointless." - Covers Experts' Footy Tipster

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Money makes our markets move, so we'll continue to watch what comes in, but motivation certainly plays a role. Lineups will be of critical importance to the Brazil-Netherlands outcome, and with the two teams expressing vastly different attitudes towards the match, it wouldn't be surprising to see those attitudes reflected in lineup composition. We're accounting for that possibility in our market management, and bettors should certainly be doing the same when deciding which nation to back." - Pinnacle Sports.

ABOUT BRAZIL: Manager Luiz Felipe Scolari will come under fire the moment the tournament ends after overseeing his nation's worst defeat in 84 years - but he remains focused on salvaging some national pride aturday. "I know my career will be marked by this defeat but we have an obligation to move on, thinking about the next goal, which in this case is the match for third place in Brasilia," he told reporters. "I know it's a much smaller dream than we all wanted but we have to honor the shirt of the national team."

ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: Dutch manager Louis Van Gaal has strong feelings about the World Cup's third-place game - and they're not positive ones. "(It) should never be played," he said in the moments following the semifinal loss to Argentina. "... the worst thing is i believe that chances are that you lose twice in a row. And a tournament in which you've played so marvelously well, you would go home as a loser just because you could possibly have lost the last two matches and this has got nothing to do with sport in my view."

TRENDS:

* Brazil holds a 4-3 edge in the head-to-head series, with the teams drawing five times.
* The Netherlands defeated Brazil 2-1 in their last World Cup meeting four years ago in South Africa.
* An average of 4.2 goals have been scored in the last nine third-place games.
* Neither team has appeared in the third-place match since 1998, when the Dutch dropped a 2-1 decision to Croatia.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Braves pitcher perfect against Cubs
Justin Hartling

A slumping Mike Minor may be getting the perfect remedy against the Chicago Cubs Saturday. The Atlanta Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Minor's five career starts against the Cubs.

The Cubs have only been able to average two runs per game while whiffing an average of seven times against Minor.

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Red Sox pitcher has been terrible on the road
Justin Hartling

The Boston Red Sox will be sending Jake Peavy to the mound at Minute Maid Park Saturday. Peavy has led the Red Sox to a 0-6 record in his last six starts on the road.

Peavy has given up 46 hits and 30 runs during this poor road stretch. That averages out to almost eight hits and five runs per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Braves-Cubs
Minor is 0-1, 6.48 in his last six starts.
Jackson is 1-4, 6.27 in his last six starts.

Braves lost five of their last six games.
Cubs lost six of their last eight games.

11 of last 14 Atlanta road games stayed under total.

Nationals-Phillies
Strasburg is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
Hamels is 2-2, 2.10 in his last eight starts.

Washington lost three of its last four games.
Phillies won their last five games.

10 of last 15 Washington games went over total.

Pirates-Reds
Morton is 4-2, 3.00 in his last seven starts.
Leake is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.

Pirates lost five of their last six road games.
Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.

Four of last five Leake starts went over total; last three Morton starts stayed under the total.

Marlins-Mets
Koehler is 1-2, 5.35 in his last six starts.
Home team won all eight Matsuzaka starts; he is 2-0, 1.35 at home (4 starts)

Marlins are 5-9 in their last thirteen games.
Mets won five of their last six games.

Seven of last ten New York home games went over.

Cardinals-Brewers
Wainwright is 3-1, 0.79 in his last six starts.
Brewers' top prospect Nelson blanked Marlins for 5.2 innings (107 PT) in his only MLB start.

Cardinals won four of their last five games.
Milwaukee lost ten of its last eleven games.

Seven of last ten games at Miller Park went over.

Padres-Dodgers
Kennedy is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
Maholm is 1-4, 6.93 in seven starts, last of which was May 14.

Padres lost five of their last seven games.
Dodgers lost four of their last five games.

11 of last 13 San Diego road games stayed under.

Diamondbacks-Giants
Miley is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
Vogelsong is 0-3, 2.95 in his last three starts (Giants scored one run).

Arizona lost six of its last eight road games.
Giants lost 15 of their last 20 home games.

Eleven of last fourteen Arizona games stayed under.

American League
White Sox--Indians
Carroll is 1-5, 7.85 in his last seven starts.
McCallister is 0-4, 10.27 in his last six starts, last of which was May 21.

White Sox lost their last three games.
Indians won seven of their last ten games.

Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cleveland home games.

Bronx-Orioles
Greene allowed two runs in six IP in his first MLB start (win at Cleveland).
Tillman is 2-0, 2.28 in his last four starts.

Bronx Bombers lost nine of their last fourteen games.
Baltimore won five of its last six games.

Nine of last thirteen Bronx road games went over total.

Blue Jays-Rays
Hutchison is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
Odorizzi is 2-3, 2.21 in his last six starts.

Blue Jays lost eight of their last ten road games.
Tampa Bay lost three of their last four games.

Six of last seven Hutchison starts stayed under.

Angels-Rangers
Weaver left his last start Monday after two innings (back); he is 2-0, 2.78 in his last four starts.
Mikolas is 0-1, 12.46 in two starts this season.

Angels won ten of their last twelve games.
Rangers lost 12 of their last 13 games.

14 of last 20 Texas road games went over total.

Red Sox-Astros
Red Sox lost last seven Peavy starts (0-5, 5.27).
McHugh is 0-5, 5.46 in his last five starts.

Red Sox won their last three games.
Astros won three of their last four games.

Six of last eight Boston road games went over.

Tigers-Royals
Porcello is 3-1, 2.12 in his last four starts.
Shields is 1-1, 4.85 in his last four starts.

Detroit won seven of its last nine road games.
Royals lost eight of their last eleven home games.

Seven of last nine Detroit games went over the total.

A's-Mariners
Chavez is 2-1, 3.10 in his last five starts.
Iwakuma is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.

Oakland won seven of its last nine games.
Mariners lost three of last four games.

Seven of last eight Seattle home games stayed under.

Interleague games
Twins-Rockies
Correia is 0-3, 3.79 in his last three starts (Twins scored four runs).
Matzek is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.

Twins won four of their last six road games.
Colorado won its last three home games.

Under is 6-1-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Minor 6-7; Jackson 6-12
-- Miley 9-10; Vogelsong 10-8
-- Wainwright 14-4; Nelson 1-0
-- Koehler 8-10; Matsuzaka 4-4
-- Strasburg 10-9; Hamels 6-9
-- Morton 8-10; Leake 8-10
-- Kennedy 9-10; Maholm 2-5

-- Carroll 3-5; McCallister 5-5
-- Greene 1-0; Tillman 13-6
-- Peavy 5-13 (0-7 last 7); McHugh 5-9 (0-5 last 5)
-- Hutchison 9-9; Odorizzi 6-12
-- Porcello 12-5; Shields 12-7
-- Weaver 11-8; Mikolas 0-2
-- Chavez 13-5; Iwakuma 8-5

-- Correia 5-13; Matzek 1-5 (0-5 last 5)

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Minor 3-13; Jackson 8-18 (5 of last 9)
-- Miley 3-19; Vogelsong 3-18
-- Wainwright 3-19; Nelson 0-1
-- Koehler 2-18; Matsuzaka 2-8
-- Strasburg 5-19 (1 of last 11); Hamels 2-15
-- Morton 3-18; Leake 3-18
-- Kennedy 3-12; Maholm 1-7

-- Carroll 3-8; McCallister 3-10
-- Greene 0-1; Tillman 8-19
-- Peavy 4-18; McHugh 1-14
-- Hutchison 3-18; Odorizzi 1-18
-- Porcello 4-15; Shields 5-19 (3 of last 5)
-- Weaver 4-19; Mikolas 0-2
-- Chavez 5-18 (1 of last 9); Iwakuma 3-13 (2 of last 3)

-- Correia 4-19; Matzek 1-6

Umpires
-- Atl-Chi-- Six of last eight Hoberg games went over total.
-- Az-SF-- Last eight Danley games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- 12 of last 15 Barry games stayed under total.
-- Mia-NY-- Six of seven Marquez games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Fletcher games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Underdogs won six of last seven Gonzalez games.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Rackley games.

-- Chi-Clev-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve HGibson games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of seven Joyce games went over the total.
-- Bos-Hst-- Over is 14-3-2 when West umps plate this year.
-- Tor-TB-- Six of last eight Everitt games went over total.
-- Det-KC-- Four of last five Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Tex-- Six of last nine Reynolds games stayed under.
-- A's-Sea-- 13 of last 18 Davidson gamnes stayed under.

-- Min-Col-- Third home plate in five nights for Hernandez; favorites are 10-2 in his last dozen games behind the plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
By David Schwab

The new CFL regular season is just two weeks old and Winnipeg and Edmonton’s four straight-up victories are already more than half of their combined win total for 2013. The Blue Bombers made it two straight with last Thursday’s 36-28 victory as 3½-point home favorites over Ottawa with the total going OVER the 53-point closing line.

Saturday’s action started out with Montreal shutting down British Columbia 24-9 as a three-point home underdog with the total staying UNDER 49½ points. The Eskimos remained perfect on the year with a 28-24 win against Hamilton, but they could not cover the closing 4½-point spread as favorites at home. The total in that contest stayed just UNDER the 54-point closing line.

Toronto roared back from an ugly opening week loss with a convincing 48-15 romp over Saskatchewan as a two-point home underdog on Sunday to close-out action in Week 2. The total in that game went OVER the 56-point line.

Saturday, July 12

Calgary Stampeders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Toronto -1½
Total: 53

Game Overview

Calgary enjoyed the week off after posting an impressive 29-8 victory over Montreal in Week 1 as a 7½-point favorite at home. Bo Levi Mitchell established himself as the new starting quarterback for the Stampeders with 313 yards passing and two touchdowns while completing 64 percent of his throws.

The Argonauts are another team from the East that quickly returned to form after getting crushed in a 45-21 loss to Winnipeg in Week 1 as seven-point road favorites. Ricky Ray was at his best this past Sunday with 407 yards passing and three touchdown throws. Toronto rolled-up 23 fourth quarter points to blow a tight game wide open.

Betting Trends

The Stampeders have had their share of problems at the Rogers Centre with a 1-5 record ATS in their last six trips there. They are just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Toronto.

British Columbia Lions (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6½
Total: 48½

Game Overview

BC came into the new season as 5Dimes’ favorite to win this year’s Grey Cup title and while a 0-2 start is not the end of the world, this week’s game suddenly looks like a must win. The offense sputtered under quarterback Kevin Glenn so the Lions turned to John Beck in later part of Saturday’s loss in hopes of finding a suitable replacement for the injured Travis Lulay, who remains out with a shoulder injury.

The defending champs played the part in a 31-10 season-opening victory against Hamilton as 3 ½-point home favorites, but they had no answer for Toronto in Week 2. Darian Durant threw for 295 yards and two scores against the Argonauts, but two costly interceptions including one that was returned 108 yards for a touchdown certainly did not help Saskatchewan’s cause.

Betting Trends

The Lions have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games against their West Division rivals and the total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings at Mosaic Stadium. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings SU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Netherlands vs. Brazil
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Netherlands vs. Brazil (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The Third place play-off is something of an anomaly. No other competition, not the Champions League, the European Championship or Copa America has a third place play-off. But the World Cup does. Sometimes these matches can be celebratory affairs - in 2002, the co-hosts South Korea played out a highly entertaining 3-2 defeat to Turkey. Neither side would have dreamed of reaching the semi-finals before the tournament, so for them it was a celebratory occasion.

It will not be so here. This game, at the Estadio Nacional in BrasÃ*lia, will have the atmosphere of a funeral. Brazil were humbled 7-1 by Germany in their semi-final. It was the most extraordinary result of my lifetime, and era-defining game. The devastation was such that many who played for the home side that day may never represent Brazil again. They face Holland, who were not lucky second time around after another 0-0 that went to penalties. They got past Costa Rica, but missed two of their four kicks against Argentina, sending Louis van Gaal’s side out.

The most interesting thing about this game will be Scolari’s team selection in his last match as coach, and how the players respond after the some of the worst few days of their lives. Some players, particularly, Fred, Marcelo, Fernandinho, Hulk and Maicon, can surely not play on Saturday, given the criticism they have been subjected to since the defeat.

It will be interesting to see whether David Luiz partners Thiago Silva. Luiz took the captaincy in Silva’s absence in Belo Horizonte, and endured 90 atrocious minutes. Though Marcelo was Brazil’s worst player that night, it was David Luiz whose reputation took the biggest battering. Everything his critics have levelled at him was proven catastrophically right.

Ramires will surely come in, after a respectable second-half performance, while there may also be first starts of the tournament for Jefferson, Henrique, Maxwell, Willian, Hernanes and Jô.

Although he has recently said that ‘We are going to do everything to finish third…We want to leave the World Cup unbeaten, something a Dutch side has never achieved’, Louis van Gaal gave away his attitude to the Third place play-off somewhat by saying it ‘should never be played’. This will surely affect the extent to which his team exert themselves in Brasilia. While many third place games are high-scoring, we could see a low-scorer here.

On the one hand, there is a team at its lowest ebb, humiliated at home and just wanting the nightmare to end. Without Neymar, as we saw against Germany, Brazil just have desperately little going forward, and Thiago Silva’s return will improve the back-line. Holland have only scored once in open play since the group stages, and they have little invention in midfield with Wesley Sneijder having a quiet tournament. Arjen Robben is the man who makes things happen for the Oranje, who also have a solid defence. Ron Vlaar, the man who missed the second crucial penalty in the quarter-final, has been superb. So I recommend taking under 2.5 goals at 29/20 with Sportsbook.ag. This will not be the carefree Third-place play-off of previous years.

In the match winner market, Brazil are rather surprisingly the 23/20 favourites, with Holland 41/20 and a draw 14/5. The draw looks the best option here, but it seems surprising that Brazil are so short. While it is foolish to overreact to one result, that price is not too different from what bookies would have been laying without seeing Brazil capitulate against Germany. One performance does not mean everything, but Brazil were just so bad, and the players were so dejected, that it is bound to have an effect here.

In the first goalscorer market, I have been constantly tipping up Arjen Robben, and again here I like the look of 11/2 about the Bayern Munich man breaking the deadlock. This is particularly good if Marcelo plays. Most of Germany’s early goals came down Marcelo’s side, which is where Robben plays. Jô looks certain to lead the line for Brazil, after poor Fred’s barracking at the hands of the Mineirão crowd on Tuesday. He has 5 goals in 19 for Brazil, a record that is more impressive than it looks given his usual role as a substitute. He is 7/1.

Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 29/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brazil, Netherlands meet in Third Place Game Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

BRAZIL vs. NETHERLANDS

Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Nacional – Brasilia, Brazil

Line:
Brazil +135, Netherlands +180, Tie after Regulation +270
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +157, Under -178)

After disappointing semifinal losses, the Netherlands and Brazil will try to end their 2014 World Cup on a high note when they meet in Saturday's Third Place Game.

After struggling in their quarterfinal match against Mexico, the Dutch were fortunate to escape with a victory to put them in the semifinals. Against Argentina, however, they weren’t as lucky. The game was as dramatic as they come, with both teams failing to score a goal in over 120 minutes of play. The fate of these countries would ultimately come down to a penalty shots. Netherlands would score on two of their penalty shots, but that was not enough for the Dutch to advance to the World Cup finals. Sergio Romero made two crucial saves for Argentina and Jasper Cillessen was unable to come away with a timely save when his team needed him. Maxi Rodriguez would score the game-clinching goal for Argentina. Netherlands will now play for their pride in a third place matchup with Brazil. Brazil will be without Neymar, who missed the semifinals after fracturing his vertebrae in the previous match.

While Brazil didn’t lose in penalty shots, their loss was even more devastating than that of the Dutch. Brazil was playing without their superstar Neymar, as he had injured himself in their previous game. Without their leader, they needed to find some inspiration and rally themselves. Their performance against Germany proved that they were unable to do that. At the game’s 11-minute mark, Thomas Muller put Germany up 1-0 and the team never looked back. They scored another four goals before the first half had ended. Toni Kroos and Andre Schurrle both tallied two goals for the Germans and Brazil’s championship hopes ended with a 7-1 loss. Oscar scored the only goal for Brazil at the game’s 90-minute mark. Brazil may have had the title on their mind, but they have an opportunity to end the tournament on a high note with a matchup against the Dutch on Saturday. Third place would not be an accomplishment for the favorites of the World Cup but after being blown out by Germany, the team and country can only benefit from a good performance this weekend.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Braves on Friday and likes the Indians on Saturday.

The deficit is 299 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo, whose debt dropped to 1,300 after Thursday’s Oakland win (not 1,350 as was reported), was done in by the Pirates’ bullpen Friday night, which caused the dirty digits to climb back up to 1,350 andujars.

Saturday: Mr. Aitch will go right at ’em with Adam — 10 units on Wainwright and the boys from Busch to chug past the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Braves -130
A's -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 18-3 run Sat Red Sox w/ Peavy -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Saturday, 7/12/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
It is time to once again take a trip around the weekday Major League Baseball Bases from Point Blank range, StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman has isolated key issues that can be of major advantage to your bankroll in the days ahead.

•Mariners – (Fernando) Rodney’s “No Respect”
Reading the countless words written about players that were “snubbed” for the All Star game provides annual amusement, as well as some insight into market perceptions. So often many in the sports mediaverse get it wrong – it is meant to be an All Star Game, and not the “Mid-Season Inter-League exhibition between players who have performed the best over the last three months”. As such, there is rarely sympathy with players who have had a great run through the first half of any season, but were not chosen – that is not what the game should be about. Jack Armstrong was the starting pitcher for the National League in 1990, off of an 11-3/2.28 opening stretch. For the rest of his short career it was a 22-46/5.06.

But what happens when a guy gets such little respect that he not only misses out based on the first half of this season, but on the past 2+ campaigns? And is also so far off the radar screens that even those writing about snubs don’t even mention him? There is indeed a Dangerfield-esque aspect to the perceptions of Fernando Rodney right now.

First a confession – analyzing Rodney has never been a favorite past-time, because of the lack of consistency earlier in his career. Perhaps that has numbed others as well. Despite being handed the ball a lot based on his promise and raw stuff, in seven of his first nine seasons he finished with an ERA above league average. Along the way were plenty of high pitch counts due to a lack of control – there are 259 pitchers that have thrown at least 600 IP since he came up in 2002, and his 4.4 BB-per-9 rates #246. But the Tigers gambled and made him the full-time closer in 2009, and it was a tight-rope walk for the ages – he converted a sparkling 37 of 38 saves, despite a 4.40 ERA and a 4.9 BB-per-9, likely accelerating Jim Leyland’s retirement by a couple of years in the process. That led to a nice contract with the Angels, who apparently only saw the saves, and not the sausage-grinding manner in which they came, and it was a dismal failure – over two seasons for them Rodney only converted 17 of 28 save opportunities, with a frightening 63 BB over 100 IP.

Enter the next stage. He was off to Tampa for 2012, and at a time when many would have considered him finished, it was another season for the ages - 48 of 50 saves came home, at a 0.60 allowance. The latter is something we are not likely to see again, with a .220 BABIP and an 89.4 percent LOB% being the sort of thing a pitcher dreams about. But he followed that up with a solid 2013, even with corrections from the Baseball dice, a 3.38 that saw him nail down 37 of 45 saves. That was enough for Seattle to offer $14 million over two years; easy for Rodney to accept.

His opening to the season was more of the same-old/same-old, with plenty of drama – nine of his first 17 games had a PPI of 18.0 or more. But it was that 17th game that has proven to be a turning point. Facing the Rays for the first time since leaving for the Pacific Northwest, he imploded in the 9th, turning what had been a nifty shutout by Hisashi Iwakuma into a 2-1 loss. He retired only two of the seven batters he faced, was tagged for a HR by David DeJesus, and needed Danny Farquhar to come on and leave the bases loaded.

Naturally there were rumblings in Seattle – that loss triggered an 0-4 Mariner slide, and questions arose about whether the investment had been a good one. Rodney did not even take a mound again until five days later. But that time off triggered something. Since then he has worked to a 0.95 tune, converting 15 of 15 saves, with nearly twice as many K (19) as hits (10). Plus an unexpected caveat - he has issued one BB to the last 69 batters he has faced, Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the 9th in Kansas City back on June 21. Allow that to sink in – Rodney has allowed one BB over a span of 69 batters.

Could even the savviest followers of the sport ever have envisioned him walking one batter over more than a full calendar month? Despite having already turned 37, there is plenty of life left in his arm, but now there is a confidence and swagger in attacking the strike zone to add to it. Since the start of the 2012 season it has been a 1.93 allowance, converting 111 of 123 save opportunities, one of the best stretches for a closer in MLB history. Yet Rodney gets to take a few days off next week, and that rest might be a plus going forward. The Seattle offense is not going to provide many margins, so he is a huge piece to the puzzle if the Mariners are going to gut out enough close games to stay in the pennant race.

•Cardinals – Life Without Yadier Molina
Molina is simply very, very good. But we may not see him again in 2014. So now it will be time to see if the markets grasp his true value, both in terms of individual game pricing, and the Cardinals in future books.

How good is Molina? He has consistently been the best defensive catcher in the sport, with six consecutive Gold Glove awards. But over time he has become an offensive force as well, and the best way to put that into perspective are his numbers at the plate, compared to the Major League Baseball standard for catchers, over the past four seasons -

2011 - .305/.349/.465 MLB .245/.314/.390
2012 - .315/.373/.465 MLB .247/.319/.399
2013 - .319/.359/.477 MLB .245/.310/.388
2014 - .287/.341/.409 MLB .249/.314/.385

Those are most significant production gaps, and it is similar when the defensive measures of the positions are brought into play (there have been 181 steals against the Cardinals since 2011, less than half of the average of 365.1 for the other 29 teams). Yet he may have been even better than that, with the metrics for catchers not fully evolved to properly measure the handling of pitchers. Since 2011, the Cardinals are #6 in ERA, #2 in FIP and #4 in xFIP, and it is not because their pitchers are really at that level. If anything, with so much inconsistency behind Adam Wainwright in the current rotation, that part of Molina’s game could really show.

Now it falls to Tony Cruz, who has shown little when given the chance (.236/.280/.323 over 394 PA’s). Cruz does not bring much power (two HR), and you should be watching extra closely in his first games to see how much opponents attempt to take advantage on the bases (Andrew McCutchen stole on the 3rd pitch after a first inning single last night, and grabbed another in the 3rd). Meanwhile the control issues of Shelby Miller (4 BB vs. 1 K throwing to Cruz on Thursday) and perhaps Joe Kelly (more BB than K in three AAA rehab starts), will also bear watching. The Cardinals could genuinely struggle to get to the finish line this season.

•Giants – Without An Angel (Pagan) In The Outfield
And off of the Molina take there is a good transition to this one. The rule of thumb for injuries is simple, but often missed – it is the gap between the value of the player that was lost, and those that are replacing him, and it is in measuring the latter that the markets often come up short. Like in the Pagan instance - who knew that it would play such a big part in the National League West race?

Pagan has been quietly effective since coming to San Francisco. He turned in a .288/.338/.440, with plus defense, in 2012, when the league standard for CF was .264/.328/.414. The consistency carried over to a .282/.334/.414 in 2013, vs. a league .258/.324/.395. But there was an issue – he missed 84 games because of a hamstring injury. The Giants went 32-52 without him, but that got lost in the storylines of several other disappointments. Perhaps also because while Pagan is a player that does just about everything well, he does not set off the kind of fireworks in any particular category to generate attention.

To begin this season a healthy Pagan was flashing All Star potential - .307/.356/.411 through 63 games. But the injury bug struck again, placing him on the DL on June 15. Once again the impact was dramatic – San Francisco has turned in a dismal 7-16, without him, and a prime culprit has been a CF position contributing a minuscule .212/.277/.300, with 23 K vs. only 10 BB. The Giants hope to have Pagan back by the end of July. At 39-67 without him the L2 seasons, it cannot happen soon enough.

•Brewers – Towards Understanding Kyle Lohse
Lohse got tagged with a loss on Wednesday night, something that has been rather rare in recent years. So in response to a query from a reader, it is proper timing to play “One of these things is not like the other”. Try this at a cocktail party. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Major League Baseball leaders in W/L percentage are:

Max Scherzer 63-22 (.741)
Zack Greinke 57-20 (.740)
Clayton Kershaw 62-25 (.713)
Jered Weaver 58-27 (.682)
Pitcher X 50-25 (.667)

Give your friends five guesses at the identity of Pitcher X, and if you offer them even money you have by far the best of it. Not many will realize that it is Lohse, and much of that is for good reason. He would not seem at all to be in the company of those four above him, and some of the standard numbers indeed back that up. There are 156 pitchers that have worked at least 300 IP over that span, and his FIP of 3.72 checks in at #50, while the xFIP of 3.96 is #81. You can’t get to 50-25 from there, according to Baseball logic, although his 3.20 ERA at least brings him in at #19.

So when a reader wondered how Lohse kept winning, it became time to break it down. The answer is that he has become the Catfish Hunter of his generation.

The usual standard is that a Major League pitcher needs either strikeouts, ground-balls, or excellent control in order to survive, usually requiring two of the three in order to be good. But there can be the rarity of a pitcher than genuinely succeeds through fly-balls, and Jered Weaver and Chris Young have already been talked about this season in that regard. What Lohse has done in re-inventing his career is become Hunter, a guy that rarely blew the ball past hitters, but worked high corners of the strike zone to get plenty of fly-ball outs to the power alleys (he even managed to go 21-5/3.34 in 1973 despite allowing 39 HR, a truly nifty dance). The modern metrics struggle with that style – Hunter had a stretch in which his ERA was below FIP in 11 of 12 seasons. He won consistently, but his model is rare.

That is where Lohse is right now. And “right now” is important. He appeared to be near the end of the line several years ago, off of a 6-10/4.74 in 2009 and 4-8/6.55 in 2010. But while injuries impacted his performances in those seasons, they also brought the silver lining of saving some innings from his arm (the Beckett/Lackey sub-category that has been written about here earlier).

Since then he has posted that 50-25, and his ERA has been at least a half run below xFIP in each of those seasons. He wins by throwing strikes (his BB-per-9 since 2011 is #8), and manages to get more fly-ball outs than the metrics want to allow as being healthy. His HR/FB rate has been steadily below average through that span, and that in turn contributes to his BABIP counts of .269, .262, .276 and .266 through the run. Fly-balls find gloves more often than ground-balls do. The downside is that they also can find the seats, but Lohse has had the command to work around that.

How long can he keep it up? If the Brewers make the playoffs, Lohse may be pitching on the night of his 36th birthday (October 4). But even in losing to the Phillies on Wednesday he did not issue a BB of the 31 batters he faced, working to a 13.4 PPI. His other peripherals make him appear as a major over-achiever, but they do not tell the full story. As long as he keeps commanding the strike zone at the current rate, he will continue to perform above market expectations, albeit something less than winning two out of every three decisions.

•Diamondbacks – Wade Miley Hangs Tough
There has been precious little to like from the Diamondbacks so far, a 35-54 in the standings that has looked like a 39-54 on the field. Fundamentals are lacking across the board, and a defense that is last in the NL in both PADE and BABIP allowed has made it most difficult on the pitching staff. Miley has been one of those that has suffered, with his 16-11/3.33 of 2012 and 10-10/3.55 of 2013 falling off to the current 4-6/4.43. But the truth is that he may not have declined at all in terms of the quality of pitches he is throwing, and while there might have been a question of his mental state a week ago, there may have been something from his last start in Atlanta on Sunday that bears watching going forward (no, it was not from the midweek games, but since he does not start again until Saturday it was a good topic to hold back until now).

Miley has been much better than his bottom line. His K-per-9 are up to 8.6, dramatically above the 6.4 standard he had set prior to the season. At 2.6 BB-per-9 he ends up with a K-to-BB ratio that puts him in good company. Combine those K counts with 48.7 percent ground-balls (#27 among qualified pitchers), and there is a formula for success (which xFIP recognizes, at a 3.26 that is #26 of all pitchers this season). There just has not been much. He is only being backed by 3.8 RPG; there is that matter of the awful defense; while a struggling bullpen (14 losses, 12 blown saves) has literally not provided much relief. And it all could have come crashing down against the Braves in his last start.

In the game prior to that, Smiley sported some of his best stuff of the season, carrying a shutout into the bottom of the 9th at Pittsburgh, with only two hits allowed, to go with 10 K and no BB. Kirk Gibson decided to let him go for the shutout (why not, with that bullpen?), but after Neil Walker and Gregory Polanco singled to open the frame, the call went to Addison Reed. Reed set the kindling of those runners ablaze, walking away 11 pitches later to sounds of Pirate fans cheering a 3-2 win.

That bitter defeat made it nine consecutive starts by Miley without a win, despite the fact that he worked to a 4.39 in that span that was not all that bad. And it was the kind of moment that could have sent his confidence spiraling into an abyss. Instead, he rebounded to dominate the Braves, allowing only one run over 6 2/3 IP, with eight K and only one BB. It was a sign of poise at a time when one could have questioned his mettle, and the kind of performance that could lead to some follow-up value over the next cycle. His base stats in the pitching forms, and the decimal Arizona showing in the standings, will not have many getting in line, which is when the savvy handicapper can relish the relative solitude.

Betting Notes - Saturday

National League
•Braves-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Minor is 0-1, 6.48 in his last six starts.
--Jackson is 1-4, 6.27 in his last six starts.

--Braves lost five of their last six games.
--Cubs lost six of their last eight games.

--11 of last 14 Atlanta road games stayed under total.

•Diamondbacks-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Miley is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
--Vogelsong is 0-3, 2.95 in his last three starts (Giants scored one run).

--Arizona lost six of its last eight road games.
--Giants lost 15 of their last 20 home games.

--Eleven of last fourteen Arizona games stayed under.

•Cardinals-Brewers - 4:10 PM
--Wainwright is 3-1, 0.79 in his last six starts.
--Brewers' top prospect Nelson blanked Marlins for 5.2 innings (107 PT) in his only MLB start.

--Cardinals won four of their last five games.
--Milwaukee lost ten of its last eleven games.

--Seven of last ten games at Miller Park went over.

•Marlins-Mets - 4:10 PM
--Koehler is 1-2, 5.35 in his last six starts.
--Home team won all eight Matsuzaka starts; he is 2-0, 1.35 at home (4 starts)

--Marlins are 5-9 in their last thirteen games.
--Mets won five of their last six games.

--Seven of last ten New York home games went over.

•Nationals-Phillies - 7:15 PM
--Strasburg is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
--Hamels is 2-2, 2.10 in his last eight starts.

--Washington lost three of its last four games.
--Phillies won their last five games.

--10 of last 15 Washington games went over total.

•Pirates-Reds - 7:15 PM
--Morton is 4-2, 3.00 in his last seven starts.
--Leake is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.

--Pirates lost five of their last six road games.
--Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.

--Four of last five Leake starts went over total; last three Morton starts stayed under the total.

•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Kennedy is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
--Maholm is 1-4, 6.93 in seven starts, last of which was May 14.

--Padres lost five of their last seven games.
--Dodgers lost four of their last five games.

--11 of last 13 San Diego road games stayed under.

American League
•White Sox-Indians - 3:05 PM
--Carroll is 1-5, 7.85 in his last seven starts.
--McCallister is 0-4, 10.27 in his last six starts, last of which was May 21.

--White Sox lost their last three games.
--Indians won seven of their last ten games.

--Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cleveland home games.

•Yankees-Orioles - 4:05 PM
--Greene allowed two runs in six IP in his first MLB start (win at Cleveland).
--Tillman is 2-0, 2.28 in his last four starts.

--New York lost nine of their last fourteen games.
--Baltimore won five of its last six games.

--Nine of last thirteen Bronx road games went over total.

•Red Sox-Astros - 4:10 PM
--Red Sox lost last seven Peavy starts (0-5, 5.27).
--McHugh is 0-5, 5.46 in his last five starts.

--Red Sox won their last three games.
--Astros won three of their last four games.

--Six of last eight Boston road games went over.

•Blue Jays-Rays - 4:10 PM
--Hutchison is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
--Odorizzi is 2-3, 2.21 in his last six starts.

--Blue Jays lost eight of their last ten road games.
--Tampa Bay lost three of their last four games.

--Six of last seven Hutchison starts stayed under.

•Tigers-Royals - 7:10 PM
--Porcello is 3-1, 2.12 in his last four starts.
--Shields is 1-1, 4.85 in his last four starts.

--Detroit won seven of its last nine road games.
--Royals lost eight of their last eleven home games.

--Seven of last nine Detroit games went over the total.

•Angels-Rangers - 7:15 PM
--Weaver left his last start Monday after two innings (back); he is 2-0, 2.78 in his last four starts.
--Mikolas is 0-1, 12.46 in two starts this season.

--Angels won ten of their last twelve games.
--Rangers lost 12 of their last 13 games.

--14 of last 20 Texas road games went over total.

•Athletics-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 3.10 in his last five starts.
--Iwakuma is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.

--Oakland won seven of its last nine games.
--Mariners lost three of last four games.

--Seven of last eight Seattle home games stayed under.

Interleague
•Twins-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Correia is 0-3, 3.79 in his last three starts (Twins scored four runs).
--Matzek is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.

--Twins won four of their last six road games.
--Colorado won its last three home games.

--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.

•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Minor 6-7; Jackson 6-12
-- Miley 9-10; Vogelsong 10-8
-- Wainwright 14-4; Nelson 1-0
-- Koehler 8-10; Matsuzaka 4-4
-- Strasburg 10-9; Hamels 6-9
-- Morton 8-10; Leake 8-10
-- Kennedy 9-10; Maholm 2-5

-- Carroll 3-5; McCallister 5-5
-- Greene 1-0; Tillman 13-6
-- Peavy 5-13 (0-7 last 7); McHugh 5-9 (0-5 last 5)
-- Hutchison 9-9; Odorizzi 6-12
-- Porcello 12-5; Shields 12-7
-- Weaver 11-8; Mikolas 0-2
-- Chavez 13-5; Iwakuma 8-5

-- Correia 5-13; Matzek 1-5 (0-5 last 5)

•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Chi-- Six of last eight Hoberg games went over total.
-- Az-SF-- Last eight Danley games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- 12 of last 15 Barry games stayed under total.
-- Mia-NY-- Six of seven Marquez games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Fletcher games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Underdogs won six of last seven Gonzalez games.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Rackley games.

-- Chi-Clev-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve HGibson games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of seven Joyce games went over the total.
-- Bos-Hst-- Over is 14-3-2 when West umps plate this year.
-- Tor-TB-- Six of last eight Everitt games went over total.
-- Det-KC-- Four of last five Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Tex-- Six of last nine Reynolds games stayed under.
-- A's-Sea-- 13 of last 18 Davidson games stayed under.

-- Min-Col-- Third home plate in five nights for Hernandez; favorites are 10-2 in his last dozen games behind the plate.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Drew Hutchinson has been compiling a high number of Unders in his recent assignments. Five of the right-handers last six starts have went under the number, including his last three mound appearances. Hutchinson takes the mound (4:10 PM EST) Saturday in a pitchers due with David Price, another pitcher who has been trending towards the Under of late. Six of Price's last eight appearances have been Unders.

Diamond Trends - Saturday
•LA DODGERS are 27-4 (+21.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.2, OPPONENT 1.6.

•DETROIT is 18-4 OVER (+13.5 Units) versus good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.7, OPPONENT 5.3.

•TEXAS is 6-22 (-21.8 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7.

•MIKE LEAKE is 21-3 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LEAKE 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5.

•JAKE PEAVY is 30-9 UNDER (+19.6 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was PEAVY 4.2, OPPONENT 2.7.

•HISASHI IWAKUMA is 19-4 (+16.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.5, OPPONENT 2.5.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(84-20 since 1997.) (80.8%, +49.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +2.5)

The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +4.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7, +8.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-11, +25 units).

•Play Against - Any team against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - average National League offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average American League starter (ERA=4.30 to 5.70), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games.
(47-20 since 1997.) (70.1%, +29.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (46-21)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0, money line price: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (50.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +5.8 units).

•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SEATTLE) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(42-16 since 1997.) (72.4%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 6.8, Money Line=-113.4
The average score in these games was: Team 2.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 35 (60.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10, +17.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-16, +22.9 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks Washington at Philadelphia The Phillies look to follow up last night's 6-2 win in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 record in Cole Hamels' last 4 home starts against the Nationals. Philadelphia is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


SATURDAY, JULY 12
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.432; Cubs (Jackson) 16.387
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A


Game 953-954: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.941; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.754
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over


Game 955-956: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.960; Milwaukee (Nelson) 14.390
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over


Game 957-958: Miami at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.047; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 13.391
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-105); Under


Game 959-960: Washington at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.871; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.810
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under


Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 13.640; Cincinnati (Leake) 16.572
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under


Game 963-964: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.797; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 14.200
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 13.515; Cleveland (McAllister) 17.489
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over


Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 14.908; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.360
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Over


Game 969-970: Boston at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.871; Houston (Oberholtzer) 16.793
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.204; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 17.677
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Over


Game 973-974: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.508; Kansas City (Shields) 15.158
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under


Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.216; Texas (Mikolas) 15.707
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over


Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 15.399; Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.960
Dunkel Line: Seattle 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Under


Game 979-980: Minnesota at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 14.044; Colorado (Matzek) 16.000
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-160); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks Atlanta at Indiana The Dream head to Indiana tonight to face a Fever team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Atlanta is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.


SATURDAY, JULY 12
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.537; Indiana 110.037
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta 1 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Under


Game 653-654: Washington at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 106.731; Tulsa 116.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 10; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 4; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks Calgary at Toronto The Stampeders head to Toronto tonight to face an Argonauts team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in Week 3 of the season. Calgary is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


SATURDAY, JULY 12
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (7/9)


Game 125-126: Calgary at Toronto (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 117.695; Toronto 114.585
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+2); Under


Game 127-128: BC at Saskatchewan (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 119.195; Saskatchewan 120.234
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways

It is time to once again put the MLB Weekday series under the microscope, isolating the key edges that can be major bankroll builders for you in the games ahead.


Mariners – (Fernando) Rodney’s “No Respect”

Reading the countless words written about players that were “snubbed” for the All Star game provides annual amusement, as well as some insight into market perceptions. So often many in the sports mediaverse get it wrong – it is meant to be an All Star Game, and not the “Mid-Season Inter-League exhibition between players who have performed the best over the last three months”. As such, there is rarely sympathy with players who have had a great run through the first half of any season, but were not chosen – that is not what the game should be about. Jack Armstrong was the starting pitcher for the National League in 1990, off of an 11-3/2.28 opening stretch. For the rest of his short career it was a 22-46/5.06.

But what happens when a guy gets such little respect that he not only misses out based on the first half of this season, but on the past 2+ campaigns? And is also so far off the radar screens that even those writing about snubs don’t even mention him? There is indeed a Dangerfield-esque aspect to the perceptions of Fernando Rodney right now.

First a confession – analyzing Rodney has never been a favorite past-time, because of the lack of consistency earlier in his career. Perhaps that has numbed others as well. Despite being handed the ball a lot based on his promise and raw stuff, in seven of his first nine seasons he finished with an ERA above league average. Along the way were plenty of high pitch counts due to a lack of control – there are 259 pitchers that have thrown at least 600 IP since he came up in 2002, and his 4.4 BB-per-9 rates #246. But the Tigers gambled and made him the full-time closer in 2009, and it was a tight-rope walk for the ages – he converted a sparkling 37 of 38 saves, despite a 4.40 ERA and a 4.9 BB-per-9, likely accelerating Jim Leyland’s retirement by a couple of years in the process. That led to a nice contract with the Angels, who apparently only saw the saves, and not the sausage-grinding manner in which they came, and it was a dismal failure – over two seasons for them Rodney only converted 17 of 28 save opportunities, with a frightening 63 BB over 100 IP.

Enter the next stage. He was off to Tampa for 2012, and at a time when many would have considered him finished, it was another season for the ages - 48 of 50 saves came home, at a 0.60 allowance. The latter is something we are not likely to see again, with a .220 BABIP and an 89.4 percent LOB% being the sort of thing a pitcher dreams about. But he followed that up with a solid 2013, even with corrections from the Baseball dice, a 3.38 that saw him nail down 37 of 45 saves. That was enough for Seattle to offer $14 million over two years; easy for Rodney to accept.

His opening to the season was more of the same-old/same-old, with plenty of drama – nine of his first 17 games had a PPI of 18.0 or more. But it was that 17th game that has proven to be a turning point. Facing the Rays for the first time since leaving for the Pacific Northwest, he imploded in the 9th, turning what had been a nifty shutout by Hisashi Iwakuma into a 2-1 loss. He retired only two of the seven batters he faced, was tagged for a HR by David DeJesus, and needed Danny Farquhar to come on and leave the bases loaded.

Naturally there were rumblings in Seattle – that loss triggered an 0-4 Mariner slide, and questions arose about whether the investment had been a good one. Rodney did not even take a mound again until five days later. But that time off triggered something. Since then he has worked to a 0.95 tune, converting 15 of 15 saves, with nearly twice as many K (19) as hits (10). Plus an unexpected caveat - he has issued one BB to the last 69 batters he has faced, Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the 9th in Kansas City back on June 21. Allow that to sink in – Rodney has allowed one BB over a span of 69 batters.

Could even the savviest followers of the sport ever have envisioned him walking one batter over more than a full calendar month? Despite having already turned 37, there is plenty of life left in his arm, but now there is a confidence and swagger in attacking the strike zone to add to it. Since the start of the 2012 season it has been a 1.93 allowance, converting 111 of 123 save opportunities, one of the best stretches for a closer in MLB history. Yet Rodney gets to take a few days off next week, and that rest might be a plus going forward. The Seattle offense is not going to provide many margins, so he is a huge piece to the puzzle if the Mariners are going to gut out enough close games to stay in the pennant race.

Cardinals – Life without Yadier Molina

Molina is simply very, very good. But we may not see him again in 2014. So now it will be time to see if the markets grasp his true value, both in terms of individual game pricing, and the Cardinals in future books.

How good is Molina? He has consistently been the best defensive catcher in the sport, with six consecutive Gold Glove awards. But over time he has become an offensive force as well, and the best way to put that into perspective are his numbers at the plate, compared to the MLB standard for catchers, over the past four seasons -

2011 - .305/.349/.465 MLB .245/.314/.390
2012 - .315/.373/.465 MLB .247/.319/.399
2013 - .319/.359/.477 MLB .245/.310/.388
2014 - .287/.341/.409 MLB .249/.314/.385

Those are most significant production gaps, and it is similar when the defensive measures of the positions are brought into play (there have been 181 steals against the Cardinals since 2011, less than half of the average of 365.1 for the other 29 teams). Yet he may have been even better that that, with the metrics for catchers not fully evolved to properly measure the handling of pitchers. Since 2011, the Cardinals are #6 in ERA, #2 in FIP and #4 in xFIP, and it is not because their pitchers are really at that level. If anything, with so much inconsistency behind Adam Wainwright in the current rotation, that part of Molina’s game could really show.

Now it falls to Tony Cruz, who has shown little when given the chance (.236/.280/.323 over 394 PA’s). Cruz does not bring much power (two HR), and you should be watching extra closely in his first games to see how much opponents attempt to take advantage on the bases (Andrew McCutchen stole on the 3rd pitch after a first inning single last night, and grabbed another in the 3rd). Meanwhile the control issues of Shelby Miller (4 BB vs. 1 K throwing to Cruz on Thursday) and perhaps Joe Kelly (more BB than K in three AAA rehab starts), will also bear watching. The Cardinals could genuinely struggle to get to the finish line this season.

Giants – Without an Angel (Pagan) in the Outfield

And off of the Molina take there is a good transition to this one. The rule of thumb for injuries is simple, but often missed – it is the gap between the value of the player that was lost, and those that are replacing him, and it is in measuring the latter that the markets often come up short. Like in the Pagan instance - who knew that it would play such a big part in the NL West race?

Pagan has been quietly effective since coming to San Francisco. He turned in a .288/.338/.440, with plus defense, in 2012, when the league standard for CF was .264/.328/.414. The consistency carried over to a .282/.334/.414 in 2013, vs. a league .258/.324/.395. But there was an issue – he missed 84 games because of a hamstring injury. The Giants went 32-52 without him, but that got lost in the storylines of several other disappointments. Perhaps also because while Pagan is a player that does just about everything well, he does not set off the kind of fireworks in any particular category to generate attention.

To begin this season a healthy Pagan was flashing All Star potential - .307/.356/.411 through 63 games. But the injury big struck again, placing him on the DL on June 15. Once again the impact was dramatic – San Francisco has turned in a dismal 7-16, without him, and a prime culprit has been a CF position contributing a minuscule .212/.277/.300, with 23 K vs. only 10 BB. The Giants hope to have Pagan back by the end of July. At 39-67 without him the L2 seasons, it can not happen soon enough.

Brewers – Towards understanding Kyle Lohse

Lohse got tagged with a loss on Wednesday night, something that has been rather rare in recent years. So in response to a query from a reader, it is proper timing to play “One of these things is not like the other”. Try this at a cocktail party. Since the start of the 2011 season, the MLB leaders in W/L percentage are:

Max Scherzer 63-22 (.741)
Zack Greinke 57-20 (.740)
Clayton Kershaw 62-25 (.713)
Jered Weaver 58-27 (.682)
Pitcher X 50-25 (.667)

Give your friends five guesses at the identity of Pitcher X, and if you offer them even money you have by far the best of it. Not many will realize that it is Lohse, and much of that is for good reason. He would not seem at all to be in the company of those four above him, and some of the standard numbers indeed back that up. There are 156 pitchers that have worked at least 300 IP over that span, and his FIP of 3.72 checks in at #50, while the xFIP of 3.96 is #81. You can’t get to 50-25 from there, according to Baseball logic, although his 3.20 ERA at least brings him in at #19.

So when a reader wondered how Lohse kept winning, it became time to break it down. The answer is that he has become the Catfish Hunter of his generation.

The usual standard is that a Major League pitcher needs either strikeouts, ground-balls, or excellent control in order to survive, usually requiring two of the three in order to be good. But there can be the rarity of a pitcher than genuinely succeeds through fly-balls, and Jered Weaver and Chris Young have already been talked about this season in that regard. What Lohse has done in re-inventing his career is become Hunter, a guy that rarely blew the ball past hitters, but worked high corners of the strike zone to get plenty of fly-ball outs to the power alleys (he even managed to go 21-5/3.34 in 1973 despite allowing 39 HR, a truly nifty dance). The modern metrics struggle with that style – Hunter had a stretch in which his ERA was below FIP in 11 of 12 seasons. He won consistently, but his model is rare.

That is where Lohse is right now. And “right now” is important. He appeared to be near the end of the line several years ago, off of a 6-10/4.74 in 2009 and 4-8/6.55 in 2010. But while injuries impacted his performances in those seasons, they also brought the silver lining of saving some innings from his arm (the Beckett/Lackey sub-category that has been written about here earlier).

Since then he has posted that 50-25, and his ERA has been at least a half run below xFIP in each of those seasons. He wins by throwing strikes (his BB-per-9 since 2011 is #8), and manages to get more fly-ball outs than the metrics want to allow as being healthy. His HR/FB rate has been steadily below average through that span, and that in turn contributes to his BABIP counts of .269, .262, .276 and .266 through the run. Fly-balls find gloves more often than ground-balls do. The downside is that they also can find the seats, but Lohse has had the command to work around that.

How long can he keep it up? If the Brewers make the playoffs, Lohse may be pitching on the night of his 36th birthday (October 4). But even in losing to the Phillies on Wednesday he did not issue a BB of the 31 batters he faced, working to a 13.4 PPI. His other peripherals make him appear as a major over-achiever, but they do not tell the full story. As long as he keeps commanding the strike zone at the current rate, he will continue to perform above market expectations, albeit something less than winning two out of every three decisions.

Diamondbacks – Wade Miley hangs tough

There has been precious little to like from the Diamondbacks so far, a 35-54 in the standings that has looked like a 39-54 on the field. Fundamentals are lacking across the board, and a defense that is last in the NL in both PADE and BABIP allowed has made it most difficult on the pitching staff. Miley has been one of those that has suffered, with his 16-11/3.33 of 2012 and 10-10/3.55 of 2013 falling off to the current 4-6/4.43. But the truth is that he may not have declined at all in terms of the quality of pitches he is throwing, and while there might have been a question of his mental state a week ago, there may have been something from his last start in Atlanta on Sunday that bears watching going forward (no, it was not from the midweek games, but since he does not start again until Saturday it was a good topic to hold back until now).

Miley has been much better than his bottom line. His K-per-9 are up to 8.6, dramatically above the 6.4 standard he had set prior to the season. At 2.6 BB-per-9 he ends up with a K-to-BB ratio that puts him in good company. Combine those K counts with 48.7 percent ground-balls (#27 among qualified pitchers), and there is a formula for success (which xFIP recognizes, at a 3.26 that is #26 of all pitchers this season). There just has not been much. He is only being backed by 3.8 RPG; there is that matter of the awful defense; while a struggling bullpen (14 losses, 12 blown saves) has literally not provided much relief. And it all could have come crashing down against the Braves in his last start.

In the game prior to that, Smiley sported some of his best stuff of the season, carrying a shutout into the bottom of the 9th at Pittsburgh, with only two hits allowed, to go with 10 K and no BB. Kirk Gibson decided to let him go for the shutout (why not, with that bullpen?), but after Neil Walker and Gregory Polanco singled to open the frame, the call went to Addison Reed. Reed set the kindling of those runners ablaze, walking away 11 pitches later to sounds of Pirate fans cheering a 3-2 win.

That bitter defeat made it nine consecutive starts by Miley without a win, despite the fact that he worked to a 4.39 in that span that was not all that bad. And it was the kind of moment that could have sent his confidence spiraling into an abyss. Instead, he rebounded to dominate the Braves, allowing only one run over 6 2/3 IP, with eight K and only one BB. It was a sign of poise at a time when one could have questioned his mettle, and the kind of performance that could lead to some follow-up value over the next cycle. His base stats in the pitching forms, and the decimal Arizona showing in the standings, will not have many getting in line, which is when the savvy handicapper can relish the relative solitude.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power play wins

pod

atlanta -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

15* Brewers +1½ -145

This game has the two big teams in the Central with the 51-43 Cardinals and the 52-42 Brewers. The Brewers need this series and no one really gives them a shot against ace Adam Wainright. I'm thinking they have a great chance to steal this game today. Jimmy Nelson is a very good prospect and did great his first time out. I expect him to keep this game within a run and with the public all over the Cards at a perceived low number it's ripe for the picking to take the Brewers +1.5 today for 15*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | TORONTO at TAMPA BAY
Play On – Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team
98-71 since 1997. ( 58.0% | 46.6 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | 1.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | OAKLAND at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 21-10 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.
The average score was: SEATTLE (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Previews for July 12
ATSConsultants

Pittsburgh Pirates (48-44, 41-44 O/U) at Cincinnati Reds (49-43, 41-48 O/U)

Key Betting Trends:
Pittsburgh is:
13-6 last 19 overall.
11-4 last 15 vs. a right-handed starter.
2-7 last 9 Morton's road starts.

Cincinnati is:
5-1 last 6 home games.
5-2 last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
5-0 in Leake's last 5 home starts vs. Pirates.

Pitching matchup: (RHP) Charlie Morton (5-9, 3.10 ERA) vs. (RHP) Mike Leake (7-7, 3.42 ERA)

Outlook: Pittsburgh came into this series just 3.5 games behind Milwaukee for first place in the National League Central, but the Reds are one game ahead. Pittsburgh sends Charlie Morton to the mound, who has pitched well as of late, allowing just three runs over his last three starts. However, he's struggled against the Reds, allowing seven runs over his last two starts including a loss on April 23 (5-2). Mike Leake goes for the Reds and also has had a lot of success over the last four starts, allowing just seven runs. He's won four of his last five starts against Pittsburgh. MLB Odds: Cincinnati is a -111-money line favorite. Total: 7.5.

New York Yankees (46-45, 42-48 O/U) at Baltimore Orioles (50-41, 42-47 O/U)

Key Betting Trends:
New York Yankees are:
0-5 last 5 Saturday games.
4-1 last 5 matchups on the over bet on the road.

Baltimore is:
6-2 last 8 matchups on the over bet vs. a right handed starter.
5-2 last 7 Saturday games.

Pitching matchup: (RHP) Shane Greene (1-0, 2.84 ERA) vs. (RHP) Chris Tillman (7-4, 4.11 ERA)

Outlook: Baltimore came into this series with a three-game lead over Toronto in the American League East, while the Yankees are four games behind. The Orioles were expected to start Ubaldo Jimenez, but he rolled his ankle in the parking lot and was put on the 15-day disabled list. At press time, they've decided to go with right-hander Chris Tillman, who has pitched better as of late after a roller-coaster performance in April and May. The Yankees are going with Shane Greene, who has just one start, and pitched well on July 7. He allowed two runs over six innings in a 5-3 win over Cleveland. However, he has to face some very good bats in Baltimore led by Nelson Cruz (.291, 28 HR, 74 RBI), Adam Jones (.304, 16, 54) and red-hot Manny Machado (.267, 9, 20). This is a team that has no real holes in their first seven batters and the entire lineup is a threat to hit a home run. MLB Lines: Baltimore is a -135-money line favorite. Total: 9.0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Road Blues!'

Red Sox opening the series in Houston with an 8-3 victory look to post their fourth straight win when the clubs play the middle contest of their three-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Red Sox send Jake Peavy (1-7, 4.64 ERA) to the mound and will trade pitches with left-hander Brett Oberholtzer (2-7, 4.66 ERA) recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take the place of Collin McHugh. Although Boston is on a roll one backs Red Sox at their own risk. Facing a southpaw on the road has not been the best situation for Boston of late as they're 1-7 last eight swinging at a port-side hurler. Red Sox also hit the field 6-11 last 17 as a road favorite, 1-7 last 8 on the road vs a team with a losing record. One final betting nugget, Peavy heads to the mound winless in thirteen attempts including 0-6 in his last six road starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LANG

50 Dime Detroit Tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

4* (972) Rays -$160
4* (976) Rangers RL+1.5 (-$104)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT DELANEY

50 Dime - A.L. WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR
OVER - Angels at Rangers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CRAIG DAVIS

50 DIME - Road Warrior Game of the Year
St. Louis Cardinals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF BENTON

150 DIME - MLB Game of My Career
Atlanta Braves ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANTHONY REDD

80 Dime - Run Line Blowout of the Year
Cleveland Indians RL-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

St. Louis Cardinals(-132)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

SOCCER
PERRY'S SELECTIONS
FIFA - WORLD CUP
4:00PM NETHERLANDS vs BRAZIL - OVER 2.5 -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Livewebpicks

REDS with Leake on the mound

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

4* Saul "El Canelo" Alvarez (-160) (Boxing)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -140
(Strasburg/Hamels)

This will be a great pitchers duel tonight. The Phillies have won 5 straight, but this is not a team that is going to go on monster runs. Washington is a better baseball team and should take the second game in this series behind Stasburg tonight. Take the Nationals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HARRY BONDI

MLB FREE PLAY

CINCINNATI (-115) over Pittsburgh

Cincy has been hard hit by injuries but keeps winning while the Bucs bulpen continues to let them down. After cashing with the Reds yesterday, let’s stay on them again tonight for another FREE WINNER! Tonight’s Reds starter Mike Leake has really been pitching well for the Reds lately going 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts.Cincy has won 6 of 7 while Pittsburgh has dropped 6 of 7 heading into this contest so lets play the percentages and back the Reds again tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


E&B had Np on Friday.

"Mr Chalk won on Friday in MLB in the National League with the Cubs Pk/Braves.

E&B has Np (again) for Saturday.

For Saturday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Rays' -$160/Blue Jays.

Ben lee is 3-4 +$24 for week thirty seven 172-199-5 -$2865

"Mr Chalk" is 49-36 -$292 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#960 Philadelphia +100 Sanchez/Duffy 2.5*

#967 Yankees +120 Strasburg/Hamels 2*


TOTALS

#967/968 UNDER Yankees 9 -105 2*

#971/972 OVER Rays 7 +100 3*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100*Cincinnati Reds -115

50* St. Louis Cardinals -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Calgary @ TORONTO

Calgary/TORONTO over 54 -110

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Argonauts are not going to stop anyone this year until they make some serious adjustments and right now they don’t have the personnel to make those adjustments. Despite whacking the Riders last week, Toronto’s defense still allowed 447 yards of offense to a Saskatchewan team that came unprepared. In Week 1 in Winnipeg, Toronto’s defense allowed 459 yards and 45 points. The Argos defense is going to need more than a couple of weeks of action to correct all the things that have gone wrong, as they return just four defensive players from a year ago. This is an inexperienced defense in a league in which that inexperience gets exploited to the full extent. The Stampeders have had two weeks to prepare a game plan to score points and that’s precisely what they’re likely to do. Incidentally, Calgary hung up a 29 in their opening week win over the Alouettes and even without Jon Cornish, they should easily equal or surpass that number in this one.

Toronto is well aware of their defensive deficiencies and they’re well aware that in order to have any chance of winning whatsoever they are going to have to put up plenty of points. The Argos are built to do just that. Ricky Ray continues to put up outstanding numbers with an off the chart completion percentage week after week after week. Toronto was flat in Week 1 in Winnipeg but Ray and the Argos ripped apart the Riders last week to the tune of 568 net yards and 48 points. The Argos are unlikely to duplicate that total here but they’re still very capable of putting up 30+ points every week, especially at home on that fast track. What we have here is two potentially potent offenses and one horrible defense. Calgary’s defense is the only question mark, as its effort against Montreal in Week 1 cannot be measured accurately because Troy Smith was absolutely brutal, as was the entire team. From where we stand, this looks like another shootout in Toronto with both team putting up 30 plus.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

After the Pirates blew a 5-1 lead late in the game yesterday, the baseball gods are screaming at us to take time off. We're listening. See you either tomorrow or after the All-Star break. Pass on Saturday's MLB action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strong winds could help offenses at this ball park
Andrew Caley Jul 12, 2014

There will be strong winds reaching up to 18 miles per hour blowing out to left-center field at AT&T Park in San Francisco when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The total for the game is currently at 7.5 and the over/under is 13-15 in conditions like this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exclusive Sports

St. Louis Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 0-12 since May 01, 2004 as a home dog of less than +150 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Rick Porcello starts the Tigers are 12-0 since May 10, 2009 as a dog after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $1366.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Indians are 17-1 (+$1,550) since 2013 as a 130+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games.

CHOICE TREND

When Jered Weaver starts the Angels are 12-0 since September 04, 2006 as a favorite after he went less than 5 innings in his previous start for a net profit of $1200.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Padres are 3-17 since April 19, 2013 on the road after scoring 6+ runs in a win for a net profit of $1240 when playing against.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE LINESHEET GROUP


Giants -120
Nationals -125
Royals -125

Brewers +125
A's +100
Marlins +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BILL O’BRIEN

Miami ML

Milwaukee ML

Arizona ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegassi
SATURDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Cardinals -135 and 10* MLB UNDER 7
20* MLB Giants -120 and 10* MLB UNDER 7
20* MLB Tigers +110 and 10* MLB OVER 8
20* MLB Pirates -105 and 10* MLB UNDER 7.5
20* MLB Mariners -110 and 10* MLB OVER 7

[golden contender]

Saturday card has 2 big 5* plays one is a Triple Perfect Dog the other an Afternoon Blowout system that wins on average by 4 runs and is Undefeated over the last 10 seasons. Their is also the World Cup Power Angle Play on ESPN. Free 35-2 MLB System Below



On Saturday the free N.L. West Play is on the SF. Giants. Game 954 at 4:05 eastern. The Giants fit the amazing LB League Wide system below which has cashed an incredible 35 of 37 times since 2004. The system pertains to playing on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored win at -140 or higher by 5 or more runs and had 10 or more hits, provided their opponent is off a road dog loss at +140 or higher and scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits, with both teams having 1 or less errors in their last game. The Giants put this system into play with last nights 5-0 win here. Today they have R. Vogelsong going and he has a solid 3.06 home era. He will oppose Arizona lefty W. Miley who is 0-4 here in San Francisco. Look for the Giants to take another from Arizona today. Saturday card is is led by the 5* Triple Perfect Dog at night and a 100% MLB Blowout system that wins by 4 runs per game in afternoon action. There is also a World Cup Power Angle Play on ESPN. Inbox to Jump on now and cash out, with the Most Cutting edge data available. The system is posted below to illustrate the material we use which wont be seen Anywhere else. Go with the Giants for the free play. GC



SU: 35-2

Runs
Team 5.7
Opp 2.8

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Sep 08, 2004 box Wed home Dodgers Odalis Perez - L Diamondbacks Casey Fossum - L 6-5 1 W 3.5 O 12-7 0-0 1-3 -420 7.5 9
May 07, 2005 box Sat home Marlins Josh Beckett - R Rockies Shawn Chacon - R 4-1 3 W -2.5 U 8-7 0-3 3-0 -230 7.5 9
Aug 03, 2005 box Wed home Angels John Lackey - R Orioles Erik Bedard - L 8-4 4 W 4.0 O 10-11 1-0 5-1 -145 8.0 9
Aug 17, 2005 box Wed home Cardinals Mark Mulder - L Diamondbacks Brandon Webb - ? 5-0 5 W -3.0 U 11-5 0-2 5-0 -160 8.0 9
Aug 23, 2005 box Tue home Yankees Al Leiter - ? Blue Jays Josh Towers - R 5-4 1 W 1.5 O 9-10 0-1 1-2 -165 7.5 9
May 24, 2006 box Wed home Dodgers Aaron Sele - R Rockies Aaron Cook - R 7-1 6 W 0.0 P 12-4 2-0 7-0 -120 8.0 9
Aug 20, 2008 box Wed home Twins Francisco Liriano - L Athletics Dallas Braden - L 3-1 2 W -3.5 U 6-5 2-0 2-1 -260 7.5 9
Sep 24, 2008 box Wed home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw - L Padres Shawn Estes - L 12-4 8 W 8.0 O 17-10 0-0 8-2 -260 8.0 9
Jun 14, 2009 box Sun home Angels Jered Weaver - R Padres Chris Young - R 6-0 6 W -2.0 U 7-5 0-0 6-0 -185 8.0 9
Jul 22, 2009 box Wed home Braves Jair Jurrjens - R Giants Tim Lincecum - R 4-2 2 W -1.0 U 7-6 0-0 4-0 -110 7.0 9
Jul 03, 2010 box Sat home Tigers Justin Verlander - R Mariners Jason Vargas - L 6-1 5 W -0.5 U 11-7 0-1 6-0 -180 7.5 9
Jul 28, 2010 box Wed home White Sox Mark Buehrle - L Mariners Jason Vargas - L 6-5 1 W 3.0 O 9-11 2-0 1-4 -163 8.0 9
May 15, 2011 box Sun home Brewers Zack Greinke - R Pirates Kevin Correia - R 9-6 3 W 7.5 O 11-10 0-1 6-0 -175 7.5 9
May 22, 2011 box Sun home White Sox Edwin Jackson - R Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda - R 8-3 5 W 3.0 O 11-8 3-1 6-0 -130 8.0 9
Aug 21, 2011 box Sun home Rays James Shields - R Mariners Michael Pineda - R 8-7 1 W 8.0 O 10-12 1-1 2-4 -200 7.0 9
Aug 23, 2011 box Tue home Phillies Vance Worley - R Mets Jon Niese - L 9-4 5 W 5.0 O 13-9 0-0 9-0 -200 8.0 9
Sep 06, 2011 box Tue home Phillies Vance Worley - R Braves Tim Hudson - R 6-3 3 W 1.5 O 9-10 0-0 3-0 -120 7.5 9
Sep 14, 2011 box Wed home Braves Randall Delgado - R Marlins Ricky Nolasco - R 4-1 3 W -3.0 U 5-4 0-0 3-1 -175 8.0 9
May 13, 2012 box Sun home Brewers Marco Estrada - R Cubs Jeff Samardzija - R 2-8 -6 L 2.0 O 7-13 1-2 1-6 -113 8.0 9
Jul 03, 2012 box Tue home Pirates AJ Burnett - R Astros Lucas Harrell - R 8-7 1 W 7.5 O 13-13 0-0 1-4 -175 7.5 9
Aug 15, 2012 box Wed home Braves Paul Maholm - L Padres Edinson Volquez - R 6-1 5 W -1.0 U 9-6 0-0 5-1 -180 8.0 9
Aug 22, 2012 box Wed home Cardinals Kyle Lohse - R Astros Bud Norris - R 4-2 2 W -1.5 U 9-3 1-0 2-1 -265 7.5 9
Sep 01, 2012 box Sat home Athletics AJ Griffin - R Red Sox Felix Doubront - L 7-1 6 W 1.0 O 11-4 0-2 6-0 -164 7.0 9
Sep 19, 2012 box Wed home Tigers Justin Verlander - R Athletics Brett Anderson - L 6-2 4 W 1.0 O 10-8 1-0 6-0 -170 7.0 9
Sep 22, 2012 box Sat home Rays Matt Moore - L Blue Jays Brandon Morrow - R 11-5 6 W 9.0 O 15-10 0-0 7-2 -172 7.0 9
Sep 29, 2012 box Sat home Dodgers Joe Blanton - R Rockies Tyler Chatwood - R 3-0 3 W -5.0 U 10-7 0-0 3-0 -210 8.0 9
Apr 27, 2013 box Sat home Cardinals Jake Westbrook - R Pirates AJ Burnett - R 3-5 -2 L 0.5 O 8-11 0-0 2-3 -125 7.5 9
May 12, 2013 box Sun home Dodgers Chris Capuano - L Marlins Tom Koehler - R 5-3 2 W 0.5 O 11-8 0-0 4-0 -165 7.5 9
Jun 01, 2013 box Sat home Cardinals Adam Wainwright - R Giants Madison Bumgarner - L 7-1 6 W 1.0 O 9-8 0-0 6-0 -145 7.0 9
Aug 31, 2013 box Sat home Dodgers Chris Capuano - L Padres Andrew Cashner - R 2-1 1 W -4.5 U 13-10 0-1 1-1 -161 7.5 9
Sep 07, 2013 box Sat home Indians Corey Kluber - R Mets Jon Niese - L 9-4 5 W 5.0 O 11-8 0-1 5-0 -160 8.0 9
Sep 17, 2013 box Tue home Phillies Roy Halladay - R Marlins Brian Flynn - L 6-4 2 W 2.0 O 12-11 0-0 5-0 -165 8.0 9
Sep 27, 2013 box Fri home Braves Kris Medlen - R Phillies Cliff Lee - L 1-0 1 W -5.5 U 3-2 0-0 1-0 -125 6.5 9
Sep 28, 2013 box Sat home Cardinals Adam Wainwright - R Cubs Edwin Jackson - R 6-2 4 W 1.0 O 10-7 0-0 6-0 -200 7.0 9
Apr 26, 2014 box Sat home Nationals Tanner Roark - R Padres Andrew Cashner - R 4-0 4 W -3.0 U 10-3 1-3 4-0 -113 7.0 9
Jul 02, 2014 box Wed home Nationals Doug Fister - R Rockies Tyler Matzek - L 4-3 1 W -1.0 U 7-9 0-0 1-3 -200 8.0 9
Jul 06, 2014 box Sun home Nationals Jordan Zimmermann - R Cubs Jake Arrieta - R 2-1 1 W -4.0 U 7-10 0-0 1-0 -170 7.0 9

Jul 12, 2014 Sat home Giants Ryan Vogelsong - R Diamondbacks Wade Miley - L -125 7.5

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Washington Nationals -127 over the Philadelphia Phillies (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:10 PM EST

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King Creole

Miami Marlins w/Koehler @ New York Mets w/Matsuzaka
Under 7.5

Boston Red Sox w/Peavy @ Houston Astros w/Oberholzer
Over 8.5

Oakland Athletics w/Chavez @ Seattle Mariners w/Iwakuma
Under 7

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BestBetPick

Josh Daniels

Dodgers... Today we look at SD Kennedy 7-9 3.71 VS LAD Maholm 1-4 5.18. I am going to make this short and sweet. Kennedy in his last 5 starts has gave up 13 runs in 29.2 Innings and this season against LAD he has gave up 7 ER in 10.1 IP for a 6.30 ERA. Against the dodger's hitters he has gave up 6 HR and .259/.327/.431 and in the last 3 seasons on the road he has a 4.26 ERA and in July 4.37.

Maholm in the last 3 seasons at Dodgers Stadium is 1.23, against SD 4.82 and at home (not just Dodger stadium) he is 2.96. Against SDs hitters he has 2 HRs and have hit .265/.396/.410.

I see Maholm being solid at home while Kennedy gets knocked around on the road and against the Dodgers again this year.

Final Prediction Dodgers 5-3

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TopShelfPicks

Raider

Philadelphia ML (+122) vs. Washington Strasburg has pitched well for the Nats in his last couple of starts, but I cannot get past his 1-5, 5.13 ERA road record. The Phillies are playing well and Hamels has pitched well all season. The one wildcard here is that Washington does hit left handed pitching well. But too many factors favor Philly here. I'm going with the home dog.

Leans

Detroit ML (+108) at Kansas City

Pittsburgh ML (-101) at Cincinnati

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Maddux Sports

20* Miami

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Indian Cowboy
MLB
3* Athletics +102

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Roxyfish

WNBA Picks

2.45PM - Italy +9.5 Women Basketball - Euro - Championship U20 Semi- Finals - write up


2.45 PM EST

Italy U20 vs Spain U20 (Women)

ITALY +9.5 points -110 (5dimes)


Good morning guys

Yesterday in the quarter finals I posted a winner for with Poland +19.5 and the big favorites Spain won easy but they played real bad, it was hard to watch sometimes

today there are the semi-finials of the Woman UINDER 20 European Championships and Spain is the big favorite again, they are playing the highly motivated tourney host Italy , Italy won against Russia yesterday and the Russians were the only team that could beat Spain since 2012

the Spanish team have a future Super Star wirh Senegal born 20 year old Astou Ndour, she was the ONLY over average spanish player yesterday, the 6.6 Brittney Griner type Center played a decent match yesterday,but the rest of the spanish team disapointed again,especially the mid range shooting didnt worked,too many turnovers and too many missed easy lay ups

so this bet is a no brainer for me, the Italians will do everything to keep this thing close, they are a well balanced team and showed throughout the whole tourney how good they are


so Italy +9.5 points is my selection


Sat 7/12 1547 Italy (U-20 - Women) +9½ -110 +425 o114½ -110
2:45PM 1548 Spain (U-20 - Women) -9½ -110 -550 u114½ -110


Spain v Italy


Records: Spain 6-1. (WWWWLWW). Italy 5-2 (LWWWLWW).


Key Match-Up: Laura Quevedo v Elisa Penna


Penna provides much of Italy's emotional leadership, a real strength when playing in front of a passionate home crowd. Quevedo however has the ability to shut her down and showed in the quarter-final the influence she can exert on a game in the intangible areas.


Key Stat: Neither team has done a fantastic job of defending against the three-pointer, ranking in the bottom half of the 16-team competition in three-point field goal percentage allowed with Spain giving up 28% conversion from that range and Italy 31.1%. As the games become tighter down the stretch, those extra points can act as huge difference makers as well as igniting a team's belief, as in the case of Italy in their quarter-final on Friday.


Spain undoubtedly possess the greater pedigree for games of this magnitude but Italy will believe that anything is possible after the way they beat a sharp-shooting Russian side in the quarter-final, with the help of their enthusiastic support. This one could come down to which team handles the emotion of the atmosphere better in the important moments.

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Steve Fezzik

CFL

B.C. Lions +5

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louisville slugger
pirates

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SportsAtari

MLB PLAY OF THE DAY

LA Angels -1 (-139)

Risking 5.17 units to win 3.72 units

7:15pm start Weaver/Mikolas must start

It’s all about the Angels once again. After winning 10 of 12 in July, 5 in a row against Texas and pitching well in a 19 game stretch where the offense has scored 4 or more in 16 games, how can you look away? This is a team that is paying out and we’re in line for another ticket as they look to continue dominating this series and finishing off strong into the All-Star Break.


Trout has homers in consecutive games and Pujols continues his hot hitting with 17 in 9 games. The Rangers are continuing to scratch their heads as they were blanked yesterday in their 12th loss in 13 games. Miles Mikolas hits the mound for Texas with a 0-1 12.46 ERA in 2 starts this seasons. Texas is 0-9 in 9 recent game 3’s in a series.

Jered Weaver has been given the thumbs up after exiting early in his last turn with a back issue. He’ll be ready to wrap up the first half of his season by matching a strong display over Texas from late last month where gave up a single run and only 4 hits in 8 innings.

Another winning day for LA and another win for us.

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Kyle Hunter

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians
Take: Total 9 Over -117


Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs
Take: Atlanta Braves -125


Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals
Take: Detroit Tigers +119

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Goodfella


Saturday Night MLB Team Total


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES OVER 3 RUNS

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Goodfella

3*GOM

Seattle Mariners

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Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB

Chicago White Sox

Los Angeles Angels

San Diego Padres

Under 8.5 Boston Red Sox/Houston Astros

Over 9.5 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 7/12


3-Unit Play Take #959 Washington Nationals (-130) over Philadelphia Phillies (7:15pm EST)

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Sports Cash System

Play of The Day

MLB

Kansas City Royals -125 over the Detroit Tigers

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UNDER Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #953 Under 7 -110 AZ/SF Danley 3 Over/12 Under L15gms 80%

1 Unit #955 Under 7.5 -120 STL/MIL Barry 3 Over/13 Under L16gms 72.2%

1 Unit #977 Under 7 -110 OAK/SEA Davidson 5 Over/12 Under L17gms 70.6%

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NonStopSportsPicks

2* Rockies/Twins Over 10.5

There's going to be some runs in Coors Field today. Correia I'm just not a fan of. He's actually pitched pretty well over the last few games, but I am not buying it. The Rockies, with Cargo back and now acclimated after last night's return, along with Tulo, Morneau moves to 5 and suddenly that Rockies offense is potent. I think Rockies can EASLILY drop 6-8 on their own today, which means we need Minnesota to get a few. That SHOULDN'T be an issue with Matzuk on the mound and every game he pitches he is getting hit a little bit more. Just too many ways this one sails over easily today and I see the money is starting to agree with us. So we'll take our shot on the OVER here.

And for the night games I do lean to the Mariners and Dodgers/Padres UNDER. If the day goes well, I will be playing those for 1* each tonight

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The Shadow Sports Syndicate


MLB

LA Angels

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB

Atlanta Braves


CFL

British Columbia Lions


Free Detroit Tigers

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Monsterbenplays Profitcappers

MLB

San Francisco Giants ML 2 units

Detroit Tigers ML 1 unit

Oakland Athletics ML 1 unit

Boston Red Sox ML 1 unit

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Kelso 50 Angels run line

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PhillyGodfather

• Boston Red Sox ML -115

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Jeff Clement

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) - 7:15 PM EDT

N.L. East 8 Unit Play

Pick: Money Line: -135 Washington Nationals

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS


Free Play: San Francisco -130 vs Arizona

Saturday 7/12 Service Plays


MLB


LA Angels RL -1.5 -105


Atlanta RL -1.5 +140


Detroit +115