7-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sizing up the sluggers and odds for the 2014 MLB Home Run Derby
By JASON LOGAN

Monday marks a dark, dark day in sports betting.

The World Cup is over, football season is still more than a month away, and with the MLB on hiatus for the All-Star break, the only thing to wager on is how many balls some guys can hit over a fence. Hell, the WNBA and MLS aren’t even around to save us.

Better make the most of this.

The MLB All-Star Home Run Derby steps up to the plate Monday night, wowing baseball fans for a few rounds before Chris Berman’s voice eats through our brain like a parasitic worm. But, like sprinkling bacon bits on a boring salad, throwing down some coin on who can hit the most home runs makes the Home Run Derby tolerable. And there’s always the mute button for Boomer.

Here’s a look at the field and their odds to win the 2014 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby:

Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (+250)

Stanton is the overall favorite to win the derby, coming in with 21 home runs on the year, however he hasn’t gone yard since June 26. On top of that, the Marlins’ are currently shopping their slugger which could have Stanton focused more on his future than the derby.

Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers (+450)

This is strictly a popularity contest here. Puig opened at +550 to win the derby and has been bet up to the second overall choice. The bat-flipping phenom has just 12 dingers and just one home run in his last 43 at-bats this month.

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (+500)

“Joey Bats” is the captain for the American League squad and brings 17 long balls to Target Field. Bautista actually rocked a home run in his last stop in Minnesota back on April 17, but hasn’t posted a HR since July 2.

Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics (+500)

The defending Home Run Derby champ is being offered at favorable odds but there hasn’t been a back-to-back derby winner since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998 and 1999. Cespedes comes in ice cold, not registering a hit in four straight games with seven strikeouts as of Sunday. He cashed in at +600, hitting 32 total home runs in 2013.

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (+650)

The National League captain leads the NL with 21 round trippers – 14 of those coming in the hitter-friendly thin air of Coors Field. Tulo won’t have that pop in Minnesota but does have three home runs in his last three games, as of Sunday. All of which were at home.

Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics (+1,000)

The A’s better hope the derby doesn’t wreak havoc on Donaldson and Cespedes’ swings like it has with some contestants in the past. Donaldson has 20 home runs and also put one over the fence at Target Field this year, back on April 10.

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins (+1,200)

There is no doubt Dozier will have the home crowd behind him Monday night. Have you seen this Twins fan’s back hair Dozier jersey? *Insert dry heave here* The second baseman has 16 home runs – nine of those coming inside Target Field.

Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds (+1,200)

Frazier upped his home run total to 18 with a bomb against the Pirates Saturday night – his first homer since June 22. His brother - Charlie Frazier – is going to be tossing to him during the Derby. Charlie is a former Triple-A player who throws batting practice for his local ball club.

Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles (+1,200)

The Baltimore slugger has just 16 home runs on the year and got into the derby field because teammate Nelson Cruz passed on the invite from Bautista. Hopefully Cruz and Orioles slugger Chris Davis passed along some pointers.

Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies (+1,500)

It’s a homecoming for the former Minnesota star. Much like Tulowitzki, Morneau has benefited from the live balls in Coors Field, hitting eight of his 13 home runs at home. He won the 2008 Home Run Derby with 22 total dingers at +320 – even though Josh Hamilton hit 35 total HRs but ran out of steam in the final.

Odds courtesy of CarbonSports.ag.

Stats prior to Sunday's schedule.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatSystemsSports
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #16

Monday marks a dark, dark day in sports betting. The World Cup is over, football season is still more than a month away, and with the Major League Baseball on hiatus for the 2014 All-Star break, the only thing to wager on is how many balls some guys can hit over a fence. Hell, the WNBA and MLS aren’t even around to save us. “Better make the most of this!”

The 2014 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby steps up to the plate at Target Field in Minneapolis, (home turf of the Minnesota Twins 8:00 PM EST) on Monday night on ESPN. Wowing baseball fans for a few rounds before Chris Berman’s voice eats through our brain like a parasitic worm. But, like sprinkling bacon bits on a boring salad, throwing down some coin on who can hit the most home runs makes the Home Run Derby tolerable. And there’s always the mute button for Boomer.

StatSystemsSports Systems Analyst Larry Hertner look at the field and their odds to win the 2014 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby:

•Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (+250) - Stanton is the overall favorite to win the derby, coming in with 21 home runs on the year, however he hasn’t gone yard since June 26. On top of that, the Marlins’ are currently shopping their slugger which could have Stanton focused more on his future than the derby.

•Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers (+450) - This is strictly a popularity contest here. Puig opened at +550 to win the derby and has been bet up to the second overall choice. The bat-flipping phenom has just 12 dingers and just one home run in his last 43 at-bats this month.

•Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (+500) - “Joey Bats” is the captain for the American League squad and brings 17 long balls to Target Field. Bautista actually rocked a home run in his last stop in Minnesota back on April 17, but hasn’t posted a HR since July 2.

•Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics (+500) - The defending Home Run Derby champ is being offered at favorable odds but there hasn’t been a back-to-back derby winner since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998 and 1999. Cespedes comes in ice cold, not registering a hit in four straight games with seven strikeouts as of Sunday. He cashed in at +600, hitting 32 total home runs in 2013.

•Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (+650) - The National League captain leads the NL with 21 round trippers – 14 of those coming in the hitter-friendly thin air of Coors Field. Tulo won’t have that pop in Minnesota but does have three home runs in his last three games, as of Sunday. All of which were at home.
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•Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics (+1,000) - The Athletics better hope the derby doesn’t wreak havoc on Donaldson and Cespedes’ swings like it has with some contestants in the past. Donaldson has 20 home runs and also put one over the fence at Target Field this year, back on April 10.

•Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins (+1,200) - There is no doubt Dozier will have the home crowd behind him Monday night. Have you seen this Twins fan’s back hair Dozier jersey? *Insert dry heave here* The second baseman has 16 home runs – nine of those coming inside Target Field.

•Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds (+1,200) - Frazier upped his home run total to 18 with a bomb against the Pirates Saturday night – his first homer since June 22. His brother - Charlie Frazier – is going to be tossing to him during the Derby. Charlie is a former Triple-A player who throws batting practice for his local ball club.

•Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles (+1,200) - The Baltimore slugger has just 16 home runs on the year and got into the derby field because teammate Nelson Cruz passed on the invite from Bautista. Hopefully Cruz and Orioles slugger Chris Davis passed along some pointers.

•Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies (+1,500) - It’s a homecoming for the former Minnesota star. Much like Tulowitzki, Morneau has benefited from the live balls in Coors Field, hitting eight of his 13 home runs at home. He won the 2008 Home Run Derby with 22 total dingers at +320 – even though Josh Hamilton hit 35 total HRs but ran out of steam in the final.

Note: Stats prior to Sunday's schedule. Odds courtesy of CarbonSports.ag.

The 85th All-Star Game will be televised nationally on July 15 by FOX, in Canada by Rogers Sportsnet and RDS, and worldwide by partners in more than 200 countries via MLB International's independent feed. ESPN Radio and ESPN Radio Deportes will provide national radio coverage of the All-Star Game. MLB Network and SiriusXM will also provide comprehensive All-Star Week coverage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

All-Star HR Derby Odds

Odds to win 2014 All-Star Home Run Derby (7/14/15)

Giancarlo Stanton 5/2

Yasiel Puig 9/2

Jose Bautista 5/1

Yoenis Cespedes 5/1

Troy Tulowitzki 13/2

Josh Donaldson 10/1

Brian Dozier 12/1

Todd Frazier 12/1

Adam Jones 12/1

Justin Morneau 15/1


How to read the Odds:

Ex. Bet $100 on Giancarlo Stanton (5/2) to win $250

Ex. Bet $100 on Jose Bautista (5/1) to win $500

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Burnett on trade talk: Phillies are my team
By Todd Zolecki


PHILADELPHIA -- Changes are almost certainly coming for the Phillies.

A franchise-record payroll has not translated into postseason contention this year. The Phillies reached the All-Star break on Sunday with a 42-53 (.442) record, their second-lowest winning percentage at the break since 1997, when they went 24-61 (.282).

Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon made it perfectly clear last week that he would like to play on a contending team, and his limited no-trade clause will be no obstacle for the Phillies. If he can play for a winner, he will happily go.

"Some guys want to stay on a losing team?" he said. "That's mind-boggling to me."

Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels have said they have no desire to leave Philadelphia, although each has acknowledged in some way that things can change. The Seattle Times reported Sunday that the Mariners have had serious discussions with the Phillies about outfielder Marlon Byrd, who it said was willing to waive his limited no-trade clause. CSNPhilly.com reported last week that he had the Mariners, Royals, Blue Jays and Rays on a four-team no-trade list.

A.J. Burnett also has a limited no-trade clause. He should have value to a contending team needing starting pitching help. He is 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 20 starts this season, including a 2.94 ERA in his past seven starts.

"I signed here to play here," Burnett told a reporter after Sunday's 10-3 loss to the Nationals. "I'm not a guy who looks for an out or wants to get out because things aren't going the right way. If that happens, then it happens, but I'm not looking to move on. This is my team. I understand how things work, but I'm trying not to worry about it. I just try to go about my business and enjoy my teammates."

So Burnett doesn't know what he would say if Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. approached him about a trade?

"I have no clue what I would say," he said.

No clue at all?

"I guess it depends on what he says," he said. "I wouldn't know until it's brought to me."

A lot might be brought to Phillies players before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. Papelbon has said he would go. Cliff Lee, who rejoins the rotation July 21, has said in the past he wants to play for a winner. Byrd is unlikely to stand in the way of a trade. Burnett sounds open to it, though he isn't campaigning for it, either.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Angels trying to trade for Padres pitchers Street, Kennedy
Ken Rosenthal


Three of the top five teams in the American League are in the AL West --€“ and the intensity of their competition is increasing off the field, too.

The Oakland Athletics stunned the baseball world on July 4 by acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, two of the best starting pitchers on the trade market.

The Los Angeles Angels, trailing the A's by 1-1/2 games, are trying to counter their division rivals by targeting both Padres All-Star closer Huston Street and right-hander Ian Kennedy, according to major league sources.

The teams have discussed Street, but their talks have yet to include Kennedy, sources say. In addition, a package deal might be difficult to complete with the Padres controlling both Street and Kennedy through 2015.

The Padres likely will trade their potential free agents, third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Chris Denorfia. They are taking offers for both Street and setup man Joaquin Benoit. But they are "lukewarm" on moving Kennedy, sources say.

Street, named to the National League All-Star team on Sunday, would give the Angels a potentially dominant bullpen, enabling them to move right-hander Joe Smith back to a setup role.

Kennedy would fortify a rotation that includes several pitchers with scant major-league experience and currently is without left-hander C.J. Wilson, who went on the disabled list Thursday with a sprained right ankle.

The Angels' farm system ranked last in the majors in Baseball America's most recent talent rankings. For general manager Jerry Dipoto to land both Street and Kennedy, he might need to trade pieces off the team's major league roster.

Dipoto already has made two additions to his bullpen, left-hander Joe Thatcher and righty Jason Grilli. Triple-A second baseman Taylor Lindsey, the Angels' top prospect according to BA, likely would be one Padres target. The Angels also are deep in young relievers who could supplement any trade.

The Padres, meanwhile, are in the middle of a front-office transition. They fired general manager Josh Byrnes on June 23, and assistant GM A.J. Hinch currently is the point man in trade talks, with input from club executives Omar Minaya and Fred Uhlman Jr.

The bigger obstacle to deals, rival clubs say, is that Padres ownership might not be eager to part with talent because of its desire to rebuild quickly. The Pads entered the All-Star break with a 41-54 record, leaving them in third place in the National League West, 12 games behind.

Ownership signed one trade candidate, outfielder Seth Smith, to a two-year, $13 million extension shortly after firing Byrnes. The team holds a $7 million option on Street and could bring Kennedy back in his final year of arbitration for $9 million to $10 million. In addition, the Padres could make Kennedy a qualifying offer after the 2015 season, ensuring that they would receive a high draft pick if he departed.

Street, one of the top closers on the trade market, is 24-for-25 opportunities this season with a 1.09 ERA. Kennedy has a 3.47 ERA in 20 starts, with 133 strikeouts and 34 walks in 124-1/3 innings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Orioles midseason report: On top and trending upward
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


BALTIMORE -- With a season-best, four-game lead in the American League East at the All-Star break, the Baltimore Orioles are optimistic about their chances of playing October baseball.

The Orioles dealt with a number of hurdles in the first half, but they overcame most of them and landed on their feet. That is why they are the team to beat in the division.

The troubles came in many different forms, starting with the loss of All-Star catcher Matt Wieters for the season due to Tommy John surgery, a devastating blow. However, rookie Caleb Joseph and veteran Nick Hundley are pairing up to give the Orioles adequate cover behind the plate.

Right-hander Tommy Hunter couldn't do the job as closer, but left-hander Zach Britton stepped right in and was solid.

First baseman Chris Davis is stuck in a long slump that dropped his average to .199 at the break, but designated hitter/left fielder Nelson Cruz picked up the slack. Cruz, signed to a one-year deal late in the offseason, has 28 homers and 74 RBIs at the break, second in the majors in both categories.

Third baseman Manny Machado missed the first month due to knee surgery, then started slowly. However, he is on a tear of late, hitting as he did last year and moving his average up to .270.

Also on the plus side, left fielder/DH Steve Pearce came out of nowhere for a career half-season with 11 homers and 31 RBIs plus a .316 average at the break.

Orioles manager Buck Showalter said his team isn't making playoff plans just yet and knows there is lots of work left to be done, which he is looking forward to.

"We may be in first place right now, but we still feel like we're hunting something, as opposed to somebody (hunting) us," Showalter said. "There's a lot of unknowns. It's going to be quite a journey. It's not going to be boring."

The Orioles began posting better results when the rotation settled down in early June. The starters pitched effectively over the past month, taking a lot of pressure off the bullpen. Showalter is juggling something of a six-man rotation, which gives the team extra depth, and it worked well in recent days.

The Orioles could have a chance to pull away from the rest of the division, especially because so many of their rivals are riddled with injuries.

Showalter also said he knows how well the other teams in the division played in stretches during recent seasons. The Tampa Bay Rays went 19-9 heading into the break, and if they decide not to trade left-hander David Price, they still could be a force in the second half. The Toronto Blue Jays led the division for much of the first half, and the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox can never be counted out to their deep pockets.

Still, there is no question that the Orioles are very happy with where they are right now. Not many expected them to even be in first, much less hold a four-game lead.

"We wanted to kind of control our own destiny," Davis said. "We're definitely in the driver's seat right now, and hopefully we can keep it going."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Yankees midseason report: Treading water won't cut it
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


For the New York Yankees, another non-playoff season appears to be a strong possibility.

At least it does if the offense cannot pick it up consistently to support a pitching staff missing 80 percent of its projected rotation while using rookie starting pitchers in 45 games.

The fact that the Yankees are within striking distance in the American League East is because that while they've treaded water, no one ahead of them has become consistently hot.

However, no team can rely on that factor and eventually the Yankees will have to develop a hot streak. It will have to be one that goes beyond last month's four-game winning streak and stretch of 10 wins in 14 games.

If that is going to happen, the Yankees will need to hit better than a team that barely hits over .250 and improve on their struggles in many clutch situations.

That means Brian McCann will have to do better than the .239 average he has produced so far. It also means than when Carlos Beltran returns he will need to do better than the underwhelming .216 average.

To achieve all of that, the Yankees will also have to play better at home. They have won 18 of their first 41 home games, start the second half with an 11-game homestand and play a major league-leading 40 home games after the break.

Getting all those components to click is their mission and if the Yankees are going to be a playoff team, it must happen.

"It's a little surprising," hitting coach Kevin Long said. "Certainly you expect some of these guys in this lineup to perform and at the end of the day, at the end of the year you hope that those numbers are going to be where they should. I can tell you they're doing everything in their power to try and correct it and I'm doing everything in my power to try to correct it and we're just going to stay at it. There's no simple plan. The work is positive and we're working in the right direction. It's just been tough."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Blue Jays midseason report: Contenders or pretenders?
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


The Toronto Blue Jays had a brilliant May, going 21-9. The American League East is surprisingly weak.

They are two reasons that Toronto is still in serious contention for its first postseason appearance since 1993, in the pre-wild card era, when they won the World Series championship for the second year in a row.

After surging through May and winning their first five games in June to go to 38-24 and stand atop the AL East, the Blue Jays have sputtered at 11-23, including a 2-8 trip to lead into the All-Star break. Yet, surprisingly, they will return to competition within striking distance of first in the division. But first they must play much better than they have.

Their starting pitching, which lacks depth, must continue to be better than expected. The bullpen, a major disappointment, must make better use of the fastball instead of hanging sliders in situations in which even a good breaking pitch doesn't make sense. The hitters must find a way to solve left-handed pitching. The players must eliminate as many as possible of the silly mistakes that have infested their play.

"We've been within striking distance in a lot of games but we just haven't played good enough, that's the bottom line," right fielder Jose Bautista said. "I haven't played good enough and other guys, if you ask them, they'll probably tell you that they haven't played good enough. We haven't done what we did earlier on and that's why we've lost some of these games."

There have been injuries that have put such players as third baseman Brett Lawrie, first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and designated hitter Adam Lind on the disabled list. The Blue Jays plucked outfielder Nolan Reimold from the Baltimore Orioles on waivers, but after a quick start, he suffered a strained calf that put him on the DL. That's the way things have been going, but the slide started before the injuries.

There has been a tendency to blame recruits from Triple-A Buffalo for some of the mistakes. But the Blue Jays were playing well in May when center fielder Colby Rasmus was on the DL with a hamstring injury and Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar platooned in his place. Gose made some vital catches Rasmus likely would not have made.

There were just too many examples of careless play from players who are supposed to be stars. Shortstop Jose Reyes has made some astonishing throwing errors. He also has let some ground balls get past him and, in one case, between his legs. He says he has a bit of a sore shoulder, but his footwork also could use some work on his throws.

Catcher Dioner Navarro, who was lauded early for his game calling, seems to have a tendency to call too many breaking balls when fastballs would be better.

Despite all this, the Blue Jays have a chance. And Bautista does not feel it is necessary to make a big trade to fortify the team.

"It would definitely help but I don't think it's a must," he said. "I don't think it's the only way we can become contenders. ...We managed to get up to first place and stay there for a while. We can definitely get back there. We just have to play the good baseball that we."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rays midseason report: Murphy's law in first half
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- The first half had been nothing short of an abject disappointment for the Tampa Bay Rays, picked by many to contend for the American League pennant and selected by others to at least play in, possibly even win, the World Series.

The Rays fell victim to what executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has repeatedly called an "imperfect storm" in the season's first couple months, with the starting pitching not performing up to its capabilities, the lineup failing to produce runs at its expected level and even the usually reliable defense showing cracks in the armor.

In short, everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Rays.

But lately, they've seemingly turned it around. Will it be enough?

The Rays have kept their hopes alive for the second half with a 20-11 record since June 11. But to make up for the ground they lost in the first 97 games, the Rays have to be on top of their game the rest of the way. They believe it's possible if they fully play up to their potential, however.

"We knew that we were capable of it. It just wasn't happening. We knew it couldn't last forever. It just lasted longer than we expected," Rays second baseman/right fielder Ben Zobrist said. "Now that it's going well, we can't look at the past and focus on that. We're just going to focus on the games that we have left and the fact that we're still close enough, within striking distance of the division."

"There's no letting up right now," said Rays manager Joe Maddon. "We have to keep winning series, there's no doubt."

The Rays enter the break with a 44-53 record, almost 10 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. It's a winnable division with no one dominant team, which plays in the Rays' favor, but it's still going to be a steep uphill climb. In reality, it may be impossible.

It might become even more difficult if the Rays lose their ace.

Left-hander David Price has been the subject of intense speculation since last year's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and the Rays' dreadful start only intensified those rumors. His $14 million salary is high for Tampa Bay's low-budget operation, and he's only going to get more expensive in 2015, his final year of arbitration. Tampa Bay built its current roster primarily through shrewd trades, and Friedman undoubtedly recognizes the kind of haul he might get for a young star like Price, a former AL Cy Young Award winner who says he's pitching better than ever.

So, the biggest question for the Rays as they head into the All-Star break is the future of their ace. Will they deal him? What will they get? Can they contend without him?

That all remains to be seen. For now, the Rays will keep fighting to stay alive in the AL East, refusing to believe a playoff berth is out of the question until they are mathematically eliminated.

"You've got to believe that we're going to have a really good rest of the year here as far as the way that we've been playing for the last three or four weeks here going into the break," Zobrist said. "I definitely believe this team is capable of coming back."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'At the Break!'

The Oakland Athletics finished the first half with MLB’s best record (59-36, .621). The only other team in the Majors with a better than .600 winning percentage, the Los Angeles Angels checking in at 57-37 (.606). Over in the N.L., the Los Angeles Dodgers currently own the senior circuit's best record at 54-43 (.557). Milwaukee Brewers in a tail spin losing seven of eight are now trailing Dodgers with a 53-43 (.552) mark. We'll close with the most important categories for sports bettors, the moneyline standings. MLB’s biggest moneymakers at the break, A's (+$1436), Halos (+$1380), Orioles (+$1260). The 'Big Losers' heading into the second half, Rays (-$2230), Rangers (-$2254), Red Sox (-$1981), D-Backs (-$1532), Rockies (-$1512), Padres (-$1482). What-2-Watch-4 when the second-half resumes. Yankees have a 1-9 (-$798) skid as home underdogs, Rangers have a 1-13 ($1189) slide as home pooches, Padres are 3-10 (-$823) as road chalk, Braves 6-0 'Under' at home following a 1 run loss, Dodgers 9-0 'Under' on the road after a 1 run defeat, Twins 0-4 away off a 1 run win, D-Backs 1-6 home off a 1 run victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday's six-pack

-- David Price is 4-0, 1.41 in his last four starts; if the Rays want to trade him, the tab keeps going up.

-- Padres lost three of four in Dodger Stadium this weekend; they scored one run in the three losses. How does their hitting coach keep his job?

-- Orioles are 9-20 when they don't hit a home run, 43-22 when they do.

-- Brian Harman won Quad Cities Open, 6th Georgia alum to win this year.

-- One quick way to improve Home Run Derby on TV; get rid of Chris Berman.

-- If baseball playoffs started today:

NL-- Wash/Atl, Milwaukee-Dodgers. Wild Card: Giants/Wash-Atl loser

AL-- Baltimore-Detroit-Oakland. Wild Card: Angels-Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Art Aronson

National League vs. American League

1* Free Play OVER 8 +115 in the All Star Game.

While our focus can now turn to the upcoming NFL and College Football season’s until the second half of the MLB campaign gets underway on Friday, for those of you willing to wager on an event like the All Star Game, I do think there is some value to be found this year.

Let’s first look at the starting lineups and rotations:

American League

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals*

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers*

Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners*

Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees*

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics*

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels*

Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays*

Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles*

Nelson Cruz, DH, Baltimore Orioles*

Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers

Max Scherzer, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, New York Yankees

Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox

Fernando Rodney, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Scott Kazmir, LHP, Oakland Athletics

Mark Buehrle, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Sean Doolittle, LHP, Oakland Athletics

Greg Holland, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins

Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees

Pat Neshek, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

National League

Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals*

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks*

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies*

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies*

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers*

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates*

Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers*

Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers*

Giancarlo Stanton, DH, Miami Marlins*

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Zack Greinke, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants

Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Tyson Ross, RHP, San Diego Padres

Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Miami Marlins

Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Craig Kimbrel, RHP Atlanta Braves

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Tony Watson, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Let’s also take a quick look at what has happened over the last five years in The Midsummer Classic:

July 14th, 2009, Busch Stadium: American League won 4-3

July 13th, 2010, Angel Stadium: National League won 3-1

July 12th, 2011, Chase Field: National League won 5-1

July 10th, 2012, Kauffman Stadium: National League won 8-0

July 16th, 2013, Citi Field: American League won 3-0

Now let’s investigate the Park Factor at Target Field (Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher).

Target Field Through July 13th, 2014: 1.124

Target Field is currently ranked as the third best “hitters park” in the league right now and while we’ve seen some fairly low-scoring All Star games over the past five years, I feel the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring slugfest in 2014.

Consider a second look at the OVER.

AAA Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo closed out the front nine with a victory Sunday, scoring with Gray and the A’s to lower the accounts payable to 1,250 abbatiellos going into the All-Star break.

Monday: Mr. Aitch will try to stay sharp by offering some horse sense with a selection at Monticello — two units to win on Er Grace in the sixth.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Germany (the draw won) on Sunday and likes Stanton (HR Derby) on Monday.

The deficit is 425 sirignanos.

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EZWINNERS

Taking a break during the MLB All-Star break. Plays will resume on Friday, July 18th.

-EZ

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MLBTotals


HOME RUN DERBY
Justin Morneau +1500

I'm not one to ever play these props or wager on the game but the value is too good. I think experience really comes into play here as this will be his third derby which he won back in 2008 beating out Josh Hamilton who simply got too tired. Morneau know the importance of being patient as this year there will be 7 outs instead of 10. "Sometime you can feel everyone getting antsy when you start taking pitches, or you're taking pitches that look like strikes and people start to wonder why you're taking pitches. I think there's nothing wrong with kind of waiting for the perfect pitch and waiting for a pitch you can really do some damage on because you only get so many outs, and there's going to be less outs this time." I'll gladly throw $100 to win $1500.

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VegasRunner
home run derby

Dozier +1500
Bautista +600

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Bartolo Colon available for trades
By Adam Rubin

NEW YORK -- The New York Mets have made right-hander Bartolo Colon available as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline nears.

Colon, 41, has performed well in his first season with the Mets, producing an 8-8 record and a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts, and may be ideal for a contender looking for a sturdy middle-of-the-rotation arm.

He is making $9 million this season and $11 million in 2015 as part of the two-year deal signed on Dec. 16.

Although general manager Sandy Alderson has suggested a surplus of arms can quickly be depleted through injury, the Mets do have an excess at the position. Jonathon Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee and Jacob deGrom all remain under the Mets' control for multiple seasons. Matt Harvey is due to return from Tommy John surgery next year. And the Mets also have highly regarded prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero in Triple-A.

The Mets are not yet believed to be engaged in serious talks about Colon, and it is not a foregone conclusion that he will be dealt, but a major league source predicted dialogue would increase in the next week. An August trade remains possible, too, via a team making a waiver claim.

Colon is due to start Friday's second-half opener for the Mets at San Diego. With Niese due to return from the disabled list next Monday, the Mets are planning to reassign current starter Daisuke Matsuzaka to the bullpen.

The Mets' wish list in trades includes an upgrade at shortstop over Ruben Tejada and a power-hitting left fielder to join Juan Lagares and Curtis Granderson as the primary outfielders, according to industry sources.

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All-Star Game starters announced
Stephen Campbell

Two of the game's top pitchers will start things off on the mound in the MLB All-Star Game Tuesday. Seattle Mariners' pitcher Felix Hernandez gets the ball for the AL while St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will counter for the NL.

The American League is currently -110 faves with a total of 7.5.

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All-Star HR Derby Odds

The Home Run Derby has always been a big draw for the MLB All-Star game, as one of the most exciting moments in a baseball game is put on display by some of the most powerful hitters in the game. Once again, the format for the derby has changed as they have moved to a bracket style where the top scores from the AL and NL in the first round will receive a bye into the semifinals. The captains this year are Jose Bautista for the American League and Troy Tulowitzki for the National League as they picked eight other great hitters to join them.

This year’s contest will have 10 players rather than the eight that participated last year, and the bracket will have AL on one side and NL on the other. Three players from each side will advance to the second round with the top score earning a bye into the semifinals. In the end, just one player from each league will remain as they battle it out in the final round. Another change this year will be that batters will receive just seven outs rather than 10.

Home Run Derby Notes

The AL has won at the derby in six of the past seven years as big boppers like Prince Fielder (2009, 2012), David Ortiz (2010), Robinson Cano (2012) and most recently Yoenis Cespedes (2013) all taking the crown. Cespedes’ win last year was the first by a right-handed hitter since Vladimir Guerrero did so in 2007, and the only chance at a lefty winning this year will be Justin Morneau, as all the other competitors are righties.

Target Field has been a tough place to hit home runs in and it ranks 20th among MLB stadiums this year in homers per game (1.63). One of the factors that could have attributed to this is the fact that the Twins do not have many power hitters, with Brian Dozier -- a Home Run Derby participant -- being the only player with double-digit blasts on the team, and the club ranking 25th in total four-baggers. With all these factors considered, the field should be thought of as neutral with no real advantage for either righties or lefties.

GIANCARLO STANTON (+240), Marlins – Bats Right Stanton has some of the most unbelievable raw power that the sport has seen for a long time and he was an easy pick for captain Troy Tulowitzki as he is tied for fifth in the league with 21 monster homers. His large stature (6-foot-6, 240 pounds) and ability to get his hands through the zone at a tremendous speed make him the favorite in this contest.
Season Home Runs: 21
Career Home Runs: 138
Career at Target Field: 0 HR in 7 AB

YOENIS CESPEDES (+500), Athletics – Bats Right
Cespedes put on a show last year, winning the derby by eight homers over second-place finisher Bryce Harper. He does not necessarily have the same type of in-game power that others in this year’s contest have, but he has the ability load up his stocky 5-foot-10 frame and hit some very long shots. While he should provide some fireworks once again, his value is inflated by a surprise win last year and a repeat should not be expected.
Season Home Runs: 14
Career Home Runs: 63
Career at Target Field: 2 HR in 38 AB

JOSE BAUTISTA (+500), Blue Jays – Bats Right
The American League’s captain is probably the best bet on their side to take the crown on Monday night. While his batting average has fluctuated over the past five seasons, his power has not, as he has averaged a home run in every 15.7 plate appearances with an isolated power over .210 in each of the past five seasons. This will be Bautista's third derby, as he was the runner-up in 2012 and should be a solid bet to win it all this year.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 228
Career at Target Field: 11 HR in 59 AB

YASIEL PUIG (+500), Dodgers – Bats Right
Puig has lit the league on fire since making his debut last season and many thought he was going to slow down in his sophomore year, but he was not going to let that happen. His home run total in 2014 is nothing out of this world, but his ISO (.212) is still well above the league average of .139 and his tendency for theatrics makes him perfect for this venue. His play and demeanor are very reminiscent of Bryce Harper last year, and it would be no surprise if he matched or did better than Harper’s runner-up performance.
Season Home Runs: 12
Career Home Runs: 31
Career at Target Field: 0 HR in 14 AB

TROY TULOWITZKI (+650), Rockies – Bats Right
Tulo has been one of the best slugging shortstops in recent memory and the only thing that has held him back are injuries. One worry that bettors should have is that 14 of his 21 home runs this year have come in the thin air of Coors Field. Overall in his career, he has hit 56% of his bombs at his home stadium and while his strong, compact approach is impressive, he does not seem to have the right swing to get past some of the other hitters in the field.
Season Home Runs: 21
Career Home Runs: 176
Career at Target Field: 1 HR in 10 AB

JOSH DONALDSON (+850), Athletics – Bats Right
Donaldson burst onto the scene last year with his 24 homers and has seemingly fell in love with the long ball as he is on pace to hit many more this season while sacrificing average. He has a long stride when attacking the ball, and his timing could be better than ever with consistent pitching coming from the soft tosses. Donaldson is a smart player and can adjust his swing as needed, so he should be considered a strong value play with the odds given.
Season Home Runs: 20
Career Home Runs: 54
Career at Target Field: 1 HR in 29 AB

ADAM JONES (+1200), Orioles – Bats Right
Jones is actually having his worst season in three years in terms of power with his ISO (.185) being the same as it was back in 2011 when he hit 25 dingers. Like Tulowitzki, Jones plays in a hitter’s park that has ranked in the top-eight in home runs per game in each of the past three seasons. The difference is that he hits homers everywhere and has actually split his 16 long balls this year between home and away. While Jones is still a long shot to win it all, he should be a better bet than the opposing captain.
Season Home Runs: 16
Career Home Runs: 156
Career at Target Field: 3 HR in 68 AB

TODD FRAZIER (+1200), Reds – Bats Right
With home runs in each of the past two games before the All-Star break, Frazier comes into this contest with some momentum. He has been consistently improving his power since becoming a professional and has put it all together this year while being just one away from his career high in taters. While his improvement is great, he has hit 14 of his 18 balls out of the park in the bandbox that is the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. With his limited experience in this situation and inflated numbers due to playing half of his games in Cincy, Frazier should be off the radar for bettors.
Season Home Runs: 18
Career Home Runs: 62
Career at Target Field: 0 AB

JUSTIN MORNEAU (+1200), Rockies – Bats Left
Morneau is a former winner at the derby back in 2008 and has gone through much turmoil since that time. Now, as a member of the Rockies, he has been able to resurrect his career and is hitting for his most power (.191 ISO) since 2010. The veteran was likely chosen due to his experience at Target Field, but in his 766 at-bats there, he hit a home run just once every 38.3 times up to the plate. He is the only lefty on the docket for Monday night, and that may give him a small leg up with it being shorter out in right field, but Morneau should not be expected to get too far in this competition.
Season Home Runs: 13
Career Home Runs: 234
Career at Target Field: 20 HR in 766 AB

BRIAN DOZIER (+1450), Twins – Bats Right Dozier is representing his home team on Monday night, as he has 10 more homers this season than anyone else on his club. He also has five more home runs than any other second baseman in the league thus far, and is coming off a two-homer game on Sunday. His momentum and home crowd could actually give Dozier a fighter's chance to get somewhere in this bracket-style derby. At his long odds, Dozier is worth a flier if you are feeling risky.
Season Home Runs: 18
Career Home Runs: 42
Career at Target Field: 23 HR in 611 AB

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection AFL

ORLANDO PREDATORS -10 (Arena Football)

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StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE
Play Against - Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) average team (+/- 0.5 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.5 to 1.3 YPP)
91-49 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 37.1 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )

ARENA | IOWA at ORLANDO
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (IOWA) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record
81-103 since 1997. ( 44.0% | 54.3 units )
4-13 this year. ( 23.5% | -7.4 units )

ARENA | IOWA at ORLANDO
Play Over - Home teams against the first half total after allowing 42 points or less in 2 straight games
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )

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NonStopSportsPicks

Home Run Derby

- Troy Tulowitzki, 1* +600 - This guy is a LOT stronger than people give credit, and his issue is that he just hasn't been able to stay healthy consistently. He DOES get the Coors Field stigma attached to his name, but if you break down his stats further, he's hit 99 HRs at Coors Field and 77 away from Coors field. So not THAT much of a difference, really. And he's worth a shot here at the price. I kind of approach the HR Derby as I do the Kentucky Derby. We could bet on the favorite, but the odds and VALUE aren't as good with the favorite, and all it takes is one guy getting hot and it goes from there.


- Yoenis Cespedes +500, 1* - I liked these odds and I actually wanted to take Puig...because there's been some back and forth between Puig & Cespedes. But the odds are better for Cespedes, he is stronger, he's a left handed hitter (which we like for Target Field) and perhaps what I like most about Cespedes is that he has strength to ALL fields. A hitter who can knock it out to ALL fields, and a hitter who is familiar with the competition is dangerous. And he CAN win this.


- Jose Battista - +450, 0.5* - Jose Battista can flat out hit the ball, and if you check on ESPN, they have an awesome spray tracker that shows how many HRs hit this season would be a HR at Target Field. Battista has EVERY HR hit far enough to be out at Target Field. And he frankly has enough power to give this pick VALUE.


One thing to mention is that we can always hedge bets too. Say for instance, if we take Tulo and he crushes the first round. Maybe he's tired, or MAYBE we can get live odds on another guy in the 2nd round. Something to consider. If I see any VALUE in live betting, I will try to tweet it out.

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Brandon Watson

Home Run Derby

JOSE BAUTISTA +600

TODD FRAZIER +1200

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Dave Essler

Home Run Derby

Yoenis Cespedes +475

I have not checked other books. Here's the reasoning. We'd typically like to find a LHH, and there's probably SOME value in Morneau at +1250 as well. He played in Minnesota obviously, so he'll have fan support. But, he won the thing in in Yankee Stadium in 2008, so he does know what it's all about. Knowing what it's all about is also why I like Yoenis to repeat. He blew his load early last year, and he won't likely make that mistake again. So, we'll throw down on those two and see what happens. If either or both get into the second round, their may be some hedge opportunities, who knows. Since Vladimir Guerrero won it in SF in 2007, all LHH's won until last year, so, we've got to take Morneau, being the only one.

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Ken Thomson

Home Run Derby

Todd Frazier

Yasiel Puig

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JR ODonnell

Home Run Derby

Josh Donaldson