7-30-14

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::handshake::

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This pitcher is dynamite on short rest
Stephen Campbell

Houston Astros starter Dallas Keuchel has no problem pitching on short rest. In fact, he excels on it.

In Keuchel's last eight outings on four days of rest, the Astros are 7-1. That's the case for the 26-year-old when he and the 'Stros host the Oakland A's in the Lone Star State Wednesday.

BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) currently has the Athletics as -157 faves with a total of 8.5.

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Simon, Reds dominating teams with losing records
Stephen Campbell

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon is on fire against teams with sub .500 records. In Simon's previous 10 outings against clubs with losing records, the Reds are a perfect 10-0.

The 33-year-old will be on the mound when the Reds host the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks (46-60) Wednesday. BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) currently has Cincy as -113 faves with a total of seven.

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Brewers ice cold with Gallardo on the bump
Stephen Campbell

The Milwaukee Brewers have not been getting the job done behind starter Yovani Gallardo lately. The Brew are winless in the Mexico native's last six starts.

They'll try to turn things around when Gollardo gets the ball Wednesday versus the Tampa Bay Rays in the Sunshine State. According to BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/), the Rays are currently -174 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of seven.

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Phils, Mets trending Over in New York
Stephen Campbell

The Big Apple has been a source of offense in recent matchups between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, evidenced by five out of their last six meetings at Citi Field going over the total through Tuesday.

The two clubs will face off again in New York Wednesday afternoon. The Mets are presently -147 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5, per BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/).

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MLB

National League

Diamondbacks-Reds
Miley is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
Simon is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two starts.

Arizona lost ten of its last fifteen road games.
Reds lost nine of their last eleven games overall.

10 of last 14 Miley starts stayed under the total.

Nationals-Marlins
Roark is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
Hand is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.

Washington lost four of their last six games.
Marlins won nine of their last ten games.

Six of last eight Roark starts went over total.

Phillies-Mets
Kendrick is 2-4, 6.70 in his last seven starts.
Wheeler is 1-0, 1.69 in his last five starts.

Phillies won four of their last six games.
Mets won eight of their last ten home games.

Ten of last fourteen games at Citi Field went over the total.


Rockies-Cubs
Anderson is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two starts.
Wood is 0-3, 9.24 in his last five starts.

Colorado lost 14 of is last 15 road games.
Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games overall, but won last two

Under is 4-1-1 in Anderson starts this season.

Cardinals-Padres
Kelly is 1-1, 6.27 in his last four starts.
Hahn is 6-1, 1.67 in his last seven starts.

St Louis won six of its last nine road games.
Padres lost three of their last four games.

Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cardinal road games.

Braves-Dodgers
Wood is 1-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.
Greinke is 3-2, 2.60 in his last five starts.

Atlanta won three of its last four games.
Dodgers won 13 of its last 18 home games.

Over is 3-1-1 in last five Wood starts.

Pirates-Giants
Morton is 0-1, 5.21 in his last three starts.
Lincecum is 4-2, 2.14 in his last six starts.

Pittsburgh won five of its last seven games.
Giants lost 21 of their last 27 home games.

Five of last six Morton starts stayed under total.


American League

Angels-Orioles
Richards is 7-1, 1.66 in his last ten starts.
Gausman is 1-2, 4.50 in his last five starts.

Angels won four of their last six games.
Baltimore won six of its last eight games.

Ten of last fourteen Angel games stayed under total.

Mariners-Indians
Hernandez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last seven starts.
Kluber is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.

Mariners lost five of their last seven games.
Cleveland lost seven of its last nine games.

11 of last 12 Seattle games stayed under the total.

White Sox-Tigers
Noesi is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
Scherzer is 4-1, 2.21 in his last six starts.

White Sox won four of their last five games.
Detroit lost eight of its last twelve games.

Three of last four Noesi starts stayed under the total.

Blue Jays-Boston
Buehrle is 0-6, 5.00 in his last nine starts.
Workman is 0-3, 7.50 in his last three starts.

Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games.
Red Sox lost seven of their last eight games.

Five of last seven Buehrle starts went over total.


Bronx-Texas
Kuroda is 2-0, 3.96 in his last four starts.
Lewis is 0-3, 11.85 in his last three starts.

Bronx lost four of its last six road games.
Rangers lost 32 of their last 39 games overall.

Eight of last ten Kuroda starts stayed under total.

Twins-Royals
Hughes is 2-4, 5.95 in his last six starts.
Duffy is 0-2, 1.83 in his last three starts; Royals gave him four runs.

Minnesota lost seven of last 11 games, but is 6-1 in last seven on road.
Royals won five of their last seven games.

Eight of last ten Minnesota games stayed under.


A's-Astros
Hammel is 0-3, 8.53 in three starts for Oakland.
Keuchel is 1-4, 5.89 in his last six starts.

A's won five of their last seven games.
Astros lost eight of their last ten home games.

Over is 16-8 in last 24 Houston games.


Interleague games

Brewers-Rays
Milwaukee lost last six Gallardo starts (0-1, 4.86).
Price is 6-0, 1.50 in his last six starts.

Milwaukee lost eight of last ten road games.
Tampa Bay won eleven of its last twelve games

Eight of last nine Milwaukee games stayed under.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Kendrick 9-11; Wheeler 9-12
-- Miley 11-11; Simon 15-5
-- Roark 11-9; Hand 3-4
-- Morton 10-11; Lincecum 13-8
-- Anderson 2-4; Wood 11-10
-- Wood 5-8; Greinke 12-9
-- Kelly 3-3; Hahn 6-2

-- Hammel 10-7/0-3; Keuchel 10-9
-- Noesi 8-8; Scherzer 15-6
-- Hernandez 15-7; Kluber 13-9
-- Richards 15-6; Gausman 6-3
-- Buehrle 14-7; Workman 2-6
-- Kuroda 10-11; Lewis 8-10
-- Hughes 13-8; Duffy 6-9

-- Gallardo 9-12; Price 14-8

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Kendrick 11-21; Wheeler 6-21
-- Miley 5-22; Simon 5-20
-- Roark 4-20; Hand 1-7
-- Morton 3-21; Lincecum 7-21
-- Anderson 1-6; Wood 5-21
-- Wood 6-13; Greinke 5-21
-- Kelly 1-6; Hahn 2-8

-- Hammel 5-20; Keuchel 5-19
-- Noesi 3-16; Scherzer 6-21
-- Hernandez 3-22; Kluber 5-22
-- Richards 4-21; Gausman 2-9
-- Buehrle 5-21; Workman 5-8
-- Kuroda 7-21; Lewis 6-18
-- Hughes 4-21; Duffy 3-15

-- Gallardo 6-21; Price 8-22

Umpires
-- Az-Cin-- Last five Cooper games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-Mia-- This is first MLB game for May; I've got nothing on him.
-- Phil-NY-- Last five Meals games went over the total.
-- Col-Chi- Seven of last nine Little games stayed under.
-- Pitt-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Culbreth games.
-- Atl-LA-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- StL-SD-- Four of last five Rackley games stayed under.

-- Chi-Det-- Favorites won six of last eight Timmons games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Six of last eight Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Blt-- Last eleven Danley games stayed under total.
-- Tor-Bos-- Underdogs won 11 of last 14 Wegner games.
-- NY-Tex-- 10 of last 15 Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- A's-Hst-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Blaser games.
-- Min-KC-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Schrieber games.

-- Mil-TB-- Favorites won six of last seven Tumpane games.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play WED

Angels w/ Richards -135

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2Halves2Win

MLB COMP

MIL @ TB

Rays -1.5 RL

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Tuesday and likes the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

The deficit is 408 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo had to sweat a little but ultimately prevailed Tuesday night with the Yankees, whose triumph cut the nasty number to 1,435 kneppers.

Wednesday: Mr. Aitch will get busy with some afternoon delights, starting off in Cincy, moving on to Houston and ending the odyssey in San Fran — 10 units apiece on Simon, Keuchel and Lincecum.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Pirates +105

Mariners/Indians under 6.5

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MLB

'Baseball Road Dogs'

For the most part, baseball bettors are far more likely to bet the favorite rather than the underdog. The oddsmaker knows this and has a tendency to inflate the line presenting value with underdogs. Keep in mind, just because a team is favored does not mean the club will win every time. The baseball season is a long, grueling one and there are days when teams don't give their best efforts, ace pitchers have an off day, relievers implode, hitters slump and/or costly errors are made. A study of this season's baseball road underdogs shows the group winning only 44.9% of the games but increased betting accounts by +$3102. Since betting each and every road underdog is rather unrealistic we broke it down by line ranges to see which performed the best. Road Dogs in the lower range (< $1.50) had 'Lot's of Byte' winning 46.7% of the time (362-413) stuffing +$2322 into betting accounts. Road Dogs with some bite were found in the $1.50 to $1.70 range as they won at 43.3% clip (69-90) cashing +$1925 worth of tickets. But, Big Dogs higher than $1.70 were 'All-Bark-No-Bite' posting a 23-54 mark depleting accounts by -$1145. A few betting nuggets found within the 'Lots-of-Bite' sweet spot. Road dogs in the range which loss it's previous road game and playing a division foe were 75-63 (54.3%) the next outing rewarding backers with +$2664 at the betting window. Road Dogs from the sweet spot which suffered a 2 run or less defeat the previous game were 93-93 next time out (+$1724) split between 38-42 (+$316) playing within the division, 38-42 (+$1408) outside the division which includes 9-12 (-$131) in interleague action.

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EZWINNERS

4 STAR SELECTION

(979) Milwaukee Brewers +$161

(Risking $400 to win $644) (Action)


3 STAR SELECTION

(958) San Francisco Giants -$115

(Risking $345 to win $300) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

(975) New York Yankees -$160

(Risking $320 to win $200) (Action)

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SEATTLE at CLEVELAND
Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts
78-41 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 35.0 units )
8-6 this year. ( 57.1% | 1.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SEATTLE at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 45-16 (+27.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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Today's MLB Picks LA Angels at Baltimore The Orioles look to follow up last night's 7-6 victory in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 record in Kevin Gausman's last 6 home starts against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


WEDNESDAY, JULY 30
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.550; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.617
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+135); Over


Game 953-954: Arizona at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.438; Cincinnati (Simon) 13.599
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over


Game 955-956: Washington at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.977; Miami (Hand) 15.753
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over


Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.496; San Francisco (Lincecum) 13.614
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over


Game 959-960: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Anderson) 12.824; Cubs (Wood) 14.224
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A


Game 961-962: Atlanta at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.283; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.877
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under


Game 963-964: St. Louis at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 14.666; San Diego (Hahn) 16.205
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Over


Game 965-966: Oakland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 16.324; Houston (Keuchel) 14.755
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-165); Over


Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 13.426; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.441
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-235); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-235); Over


Game 969-970: Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.903; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.462
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under


Game 971-972: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.639; Baltimore (Gausman) 15.935
Dunkel Line: Baltimore ;by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over


Game 973-974: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 15.893; Boston (Lester) 14.737
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Under


Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.657; Texas (Lewis) 15.543
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+135); Over


Game 977-978: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 16.655; Kansas City (Duffy) 14.438
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under


Game 979-980: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.793; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.040
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-185); Over

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POWER PLAY WINS

Plays Of The Day

1 Unit Los Angeles Angels -125 (Richards)
1 Unit Kansas City Royals -145 (Duffy)
1 Unit Colorado Rockies (Anderson)

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Daily Wager with Weekend Warrior - 7.30.14 July 30, 2014 7:27 AM by Mark Mayer

Baseball

960 Chicago Cubs -113: Longest game in the history of the Chicago Cubs last night took its toll more on the Colorado staff. Plus the Rockies are just awful on the road and hampered without Tulo and Cargo.

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Baseball Play of the Day - 7.30.14 July 30, 2014 6:29 AM by GT Staff

Toronto Blue Jays +135 at Boston Red Sox at 4:10 p.m. PST

The Jays look to be sitting on a rare sweep of the Red Sox in Boston before heading on to Houston. The Jays have put together a real nice four game win streak and a win here would put the cherry on the cake. ‘

973 Toronto Blue Jays +135

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GamingToday's Consensus Picks - 7.30.14 July 30, 2014 6:19 AM by GT Staff

Baseball

954 Cincinnati Reds -120: Cincy got the much needed win yesterday when shutting out the Diamondbacks 3-0, the momentum will start to grow with the win as they try and get back in the NL Central race.

960 Chicago Cubs -105: Cubs beat the Rockies again yesterday and look to put a lock on this four game series with a win today, the Rockies just don’t score runs on the road like they do at Coors field.

962 Los Angeles Dodgers -160: The Boys in Blue on a roll winning their fourth straight game last night, it will continue.

965 Oakland Athletics -145: Must lay the number on the road with the A’s who are heads better than the Astros.

969 Seattle Mariners EVEN: Iwakuma takes the hill for Seattle and in his five games he has exhibited super control as he has not walked a batter.

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Bookieshunter

2* O7.5 Phillies/Mets

1* Astros
1* O6.5 Braves/Dodgers

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SPORTSATARI

Daily Reports
July 30th, 2014

We've taken 3 wins in a row off the A's at the -1.5 RL. We backed off at the right time and attacked when the situation was right. This is an offensive powerhouse and they proved it by piling on 6 runs in the 9th. We're absolutely dominating this month with the MLB PLAY OF THE DAY going 17-8.

MLB PLAY OF THE DAY

New York Yankees -1 (-114)

Risking 2.28 units to win 2 units

8:05pm start

Kuroda, Lewis must start

The Yankees and Rangers raced for runs last night with New York pulling ahead to take the win by a 12-11 margin. Texas is 4-8 after the break while New York is 8-4. The Yanks are finding their groove with Teixeira returning to the lineup and homering in his first game while Gardner with 7-10 with 2 HRs in his last 2. Suzuki is also expected to make some noise tonight with a .358 average against the Rangers schedule starter, Colby Lewis.

Lewis is an atrocious 0-3 with an 11.85ERA in his last 3 starts and the team is 6-14 in his last 20 and 1-5 in his last 6 starts. Texas is ranked 29th in ERA at 4.81 and it’s getting ugly for these guys losing 32 out of 39 games. The Yankees are 4-0 in 4 games when Kuroda starts. He’s got a 2-2 record in 5 tries over the Rangers with a 2.08ERA. The Bronx Bombers are hitting well and should continue to do so tonight while limiting their opponent under a consistent arm that should not disappoint bettors. Take the Yankees.

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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

It might be time to fade the Cincinnati Reds. Entering Tuesday they have lost nine of 10 since the break, scoring just 17 runs in that stretch, the fewest in the majors. With both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips still out at least a few more weeks, I don’t see things getting much better anytime soon barring a trade. Here’s a look at Wednesday’s Reds matchup and four other interesting games.

Diamondbacks at Reds (-119, 7.5)

I don’t want to say I told you so, but I pretty much projected that Reds first-half sensation Alfredo Simon would come crashing back to earth at some point this season, and that appears to be happening. You don’t come practically out of nowhere and dominate all season at age 33. Simon was 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA before the all-star break but has been hit around in two starts since, allowing seven runs and 14 hits over 9.1 innings, both losses. He beat the Snakes in the desert on June 1, allowing three runs and seven hits over 6.1 innings. Mark Trumbo is 2-for-6 with two doubles career off Simon. Arizona starts lefty Wade Miley, and the team has been getting trade inquiries on him. Miley (6-7, 4.34) probably stays because he’s only 27 and under team financial control for a few more seasons. He pitched opposite Simon on June 1, allowing four runs and eight hits over six innings. Miley has been pretty good in July with a 2.94 ERA. Ryan Ludwick has two solo homers off him in eight at-bats.

Key trends: Arizona is 2-8 in Miley’s past 10 road starts vs. teams with a losing record. The Reds are 7-0 in their past seven against lefties. They are 10-0 in Simon’s past 10 against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: I don’t trust Simon at this point or the Reds. Take Arizona.



Brewers at Rays (-170, 7)

I think you can safely say that this will not be David Price’s final start in a Rays uniform as Tampa Bay is playing terrific baseball and now is just two games under .500 entering Tuesday. The Rays will go for a playoff spot and then worry about dealing Price this winter. Price (11-7, 3.08) has won his past six starts, allowing no earned runs in three of them. He hasn’t faced many Brewers. Mark Reynolds is 7-for-29 with three homers and six RBIs off Price. Sadly, there might be only 5,000 people at this 12:10 p.m. start in St. Petersburg. It’s Yovani Gallardo (5-5, 3.57) for Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost his past six outings, although he got a decision in only one of them. He blanked the Mets over 7.2 innings in his last start. Only a few Rays have faced him. James Loney is 4-for-14 with three RBIs.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-4 in their past five against lefties. The Rays have won four straight Price starts against teams with a winning record. The “under” is 4-1 in Price’s past five at home.

Early lean: Go Rays at +130 on the runline.



Mariners at Indians (+111, 6.5)

Few pitchers are more fun to watch than Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (11-2, 1.99), and he’s on an incredible roll right now. King Felix has tied Tom Seaver’s major-league record of 13 straight starts of pitching at least seven innings and allowing two or fewer runs. Hernandez is 7-1 with a 1.36 ERA in that run, although he has gotten no-decisions in three of his past four. Hernandez totally shut down the Indians on June 29, holding them to a hit over eight innings, striking out nine. Daniel Murphy has some success against him with a .308 average, three homers and 16 RBIs career. Corey Kluber (10-6, 2.77) goes for Cleveland, and he has become the ace of the staff. Kluber has allowed just two earned runs combined over his past two starts and has a 1.97 ERA this month. The only Mariner to have faced him is Robinson Cano, who has a double in four at-bats.

Key trends: Seattle is 6-1 in Hernandez’s past seven on the road. The Indians are 5-1 in Kluber’s past six at home. The under is 5-0 in Hernandez’s past five and 5-1 in Kluber’s past six.

Early lean: Under at -110.



Nationals at Marlins (+125, 7.5)

Keep an eye on whether Nats outfielder Jayson Werth is in the lineup for this one. He sprained an ankle in Monday’s game. He’s hitting .284 with 12 homers and 58 RBIs on the year but hasn’t gone yard since the all-star break. Werth is 2-for-9 career with an RBI off Miami starter Brad Hand (2-2, 4.19). The lefty blanked Houston on three hits in a career-high 7.1 innings last time out. He has not fared well in two starts against Washington this season with a 0-1 record and 11.37 ERA. Bryce Harper has a home run and four RBIs in five at-bats against Hand. Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.82) goes for the Nationals. He’s nothing if not consistent: three straight starts of one run allowed over seven innings. Roark is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in two starts against the Marlins. Giancarlo Stanton has gone yard once in nine at-bats vs. Roark.

Key trends: Washington is 4-1 in Roark’s past five on the road. The Marlins are 1-6 in Hand’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Roark’s past five and 4-0 in Hand’s past four vs. the NL East.

Early lean: Go Nats at +120 on the runline.



Blue Jays at Red Sox (-157, 8)

It’s amazing what a difference a week can make, but now it appears that this will be the final start in a Red Sox uniform for lefty ace Jon Lester (10-7, 2.52). The Sox have lost six of seven entering Tuesday and the “for sale” sign is up — team brass already is looking toward 2015. Lester said he’d consider re-signing this winter even if dealt. I think he does go, so if he gets pulled before Wednesday’s start or early in it while pitching well, something has gone down. Lester has a 0.93 ERA this month. The Jays have knocked him around this year as Lester is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA against them. Fellow lefty Mark Buehrle takes the mound for Toronto. Buehrle (10-7, 3.19) hasn’t won since June 1 and has allowed 11 runs over nine innings in his past two starts. He’s 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts vs. Boston. Big Papi has four homers and 14 RBIs career off him in 79 at-bats.

Key trends: The Jays are 2-9 in their past 11 vs. lefties. Boston is 7-2 in Lester’s past nine at home vs. Toronto. The over is 5-1 in his past six at home against the Jays.

Early lean: I think the Red Sox have quit. I also think that Lester might have an off night if he’s preoccupied with all the trade talk. Thus, the Jays are good underdog value.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Braves at Dodgers

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (-163, 6.5)

Zack Greinke makes his first start at home in over a month when he leads the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers into the second game of a three-game series against Atlanta on Wednesday night. Greinke is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA in eight starts at Dodger Stadium, striking out 10 in seven dominant innings against St. Louis in his previous home appearance June 28. He will be looking to help the Dodgers extend their longest winning streak of the season to five games.

Los Angeles had been 0-7 when trying to record a fourth consecutive victory before finally breaking through with Tuesday’s 8-4 win in the series opener. The Dodgers pounded out a season-high nine extra-base hits while opening up a three-game lead on San Francisco in the National League West. Atlanta, which had won three in a row before Tuesday, remains a half-game behind Washington in the NL East.

TV: 10:10 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Atlanta), SNLA (Los Angeles)

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Dodgers as -160 home faves, but that has since moved to -163. The total has held at 6.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Braves (-176), Dodgers (-197)

INJURY REPORT: Braves – RF Jason Heyward (Questionable, back). Dodgers – 3B Chone Figgins (15-day DL, hip)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Inconsistency has become the Braves calling card in recent years and we saw evidence of that this past week. The Dodgers made a statement in San Francisco, outscoring the Giants 17-4 in a three-game sweep.” Sean Murphy.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves LH Alex Wood (7-8, 3.44 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (12-5, 2.74)

Wood will be trying to rebound after giving up a career-high 12 hits in five rocky innings of a 5-2 loss to San Diego on Friday. Prior to that, he had posted a 2.83 ERA in 12 starts this season. The former second-round pick, who has never started against Los Angeles, is 3 1/3 innings shy of reaching 100 in a season for the first time as a professional.

Greinke yielded four hits in seven scoreless innings at San Francisco on Friday in his fourth straight road start. He had 10 strikeouts against just one walk after issuing a season-high five free passes in his previous outing. The former American League Cy Young Award winner is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Los Angeles.
* Braves are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Dodgers are 19-4 in Greinke’s last 23 home starts.
* Dodgers are 4-0 in their last four overall.

CONSENSUS: 65.55 percent of wagers are backing the Los Angeles Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Lester-less Sox close series with Jays

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major league games:

Lester-less Sox, Blue Buehrle

Jon Lester will not start on Wednesday when the Boston Red Sox (149, 8) continue their series with the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto will likely have a significant edge in the pitching matchup even with Mark Buehrle coming off a loss against the Yankees that continued a stretch in which Buerhle has not seen a win on the mound since June 1. Toronto has won the first two games of the series to scores of 14-1 and 4-2.

Plucky Phil

Phil Hughes will be hoping for runs after two straight losses on the mound as the Minnesota Twins (+140, 7.5) take on the Kansas City Royals. Minnesota hasn’t given Hughes much run support as of late as both of his losses came under the total. Hughes will also be coming off an injury following an early exit in his July 24 start against the White Sox, making his attempt to get back in the win column that much more difficult.

Rollin’ Jays

Toronto Blue Jays fans are thinking playoffs thanks to an 8-2 stretch has the Canadian ball club up two games in the chase for the American League’s second Wild Card spot. Looking for a sweep against Boston at Fenway Wednesday, Toronto has still been getting underdog value despite their hot play. That likely won’t continue on Thursday as they travel to play the 43-64 Houston Astros, but Jays fans will be hoping that the wins against sub-.500 teams continue to end July.

Pitching Notes

* Johnny Cueto will start for the Reds on Thursday and has been locked in this month. The Reds ace is 3-1 for the month in five starts with four out of five unders during that span, allowing no more than three earned runs in each July appearance.

* Clayton Kershaw starts on Thursday at home against the Dodgers and will be looking to continue his historic summer where every one of his starts has been a must see appearance. Kershaw is 9-0 in his last ten starts, dropping a July 20 start in St. Louis against the Cardinals as his only blemish.

Hitting Notes

* Baltimore will be hoping that slugger Manny Machado has more heroics in store during the O’s pivotal series with the Los Angeles Angels. Machado kept Baltimore ahead of the Blue Jays by 2.5 games in the AL East race with a walkoff home run in the bottom of the 12th inning. Machado is 4-10 with four RBI in his last two games.

* New York Yankees pickup Chase Headley has been on fire since coming to the pinstripes. The .239 hitter has a hit in every game since July 24, including three RBI’s as his addition has helped keep New York from falling too far behind the Jays and Orioles.

Totals Streak

Felix Hernandez (Five straight unders): Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is once again a favorite to win the American League CY Young and it is hard to argue for unders bettors who have profited from the golden arm of Hernandez during five straight games that have went under the total with the 11-2 Seattle pitcher on the mound.

Prop of the Day

Mark Buehrle has been steadily increasing his ERA as well as his loss total during his nearly two month streak without a win for the Blue Jays. The F5 over may be worth a look with Buehrle giving up 11 combined earned runs in two starts following the All-Star break.

Injury Notes

* Baltimore power hitter Chris Davis missed Tuesday’s 12th inning win over the Angels due to an undisclosed illness and will be questionable to return for Wednesday’s meeting. The Orioles (+115, 8.5) are 6-9 with Davis out of the lineup.

* Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce will be taking a leave of absence to deal with the passing of his grandfather. He is expected to return to baseball on Friday against the Miami Marlins and will be out of the Reds lineup on Wednesday and Thursday.

Weather Watch

* Forecasts are calling for wind to blow in from centerfield at 12 mph at Globe Life Park in Arlington for the game between the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers. The Rangers are 3-5 when the wind blows in from center and Over/Under is 0-2 when wind blows in from center between 10-20 mph. The Rangers are +134 home dogs and the total is currently 9.

Umpire Note of the Day

* The Cincinnati Reds are a dismal 1-11 in their last 12 games with umpire Eric Cooper behind home plate. That’s exactly where Cooper will be when the Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday afternoon. Station Casinos opened the Reds as small -115 home faves earlier Wednesday morning.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:52 a.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Orioles took a thriller off the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night with a Manny Machado walk off homer and they try and continue the momentum tonight as they face Garrett Richards and the Halos. The Orioles will counter with righty Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.67) who has pitched pretty well for the Orioles this year. Richards has absolutely been money away from home this year, going 6-1 with a stellar 1.83 ERA away from home this season. The Angels are 8-2 over Richards last 10 starts and a perfect 8-0 in his last eight starts as a road favorite. Both of these teams are heavily involved in their respective division races and the Angels lost more ground last night as the A’s got a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Astros, so that is weighing on the Angels minds. Richards does what he does tonight and shuts down the Orioles, getting the visitors a much needed win. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – LOS ANGELES ANGELS (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

10* MLB PERFECT PLAY

Colorado vs. Chi Cubs, 07/30/2014 20:05
Money Line: -106 Chicago Cubs

This game features the 43-63 Rockies and the 44-61 Cubs. We have been riding the Cubs to wins in the last 2 games and will ride them again tonight. The Rockies are horrible on the road going 16-35 while the Cubs are not that bad at home going 24-26 and are really playing better overall Baseball. Travis Wood has struggled this year but I think he will turn it around today public is 50/50 on this game but line is moving showing the Sharps are taking the Cubs here and so will we for a 10* winner straight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced sports investments

perry’s soccer corner
uefa – champions league
2:00pm- panathinaikos @ standard liege – under 2.5 -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS PICKS PORTFOLIO

CIN -117
Arizona vs Cincinnati - Under 7 -105
KC -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Mets
Team B: Phillies
Pick: Over 7.5
Risk:$100 to win $115
Time: 9:00 AM PT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF CLEMENT

8* Twins vs Royals – Under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take Tampa Bay and Milwaukee to fly OVER 7!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday’s Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Mariners at Indians – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SEA: Hernandez (11-2, 1.99 ERA)
CLE: Kluber (10-6, 2.77 ERA)

Series recap: The Mariners took care of the Indians on Tuesday, 5-2, thanks to a four-run fourth inning. Seattle cashed as +105 underdogs to even the season series at 2-2 with Cleveland, while all four meetings have finished ‘under’ the total.

What to watch for: The Indians have fallen apart of late, dropping seven of their past nine games, while their starting pitchers have lasted five innings or less five times in this span. The Mariners continue to pitch well, cashing the ‘under in eight consecutive contests. Seattle owns a 6-1 record in Hernandez’s last seven road outings, while the former Cy Young winner shut down Cleveland at home last month in a 3-0 victory.

Angels at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
LAA: Richards (11-3, 2.62 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (4-3, 3.67 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles walked off past the Angels in 12 innings thanks to a Manny Machado solo homer, 7-6 to cash as +125 home ‘dogs. Both teams went back-and-forth in the exciting series opener, as the O’s have now beaten the Halos three of four times this season.

What to watch for: Baltimore has compiled a 3-1 record in Gausman’s last four home outings, while winning four of his previous five starts in the underdog role. For the first time all season, the Angels have dropped consecutive starts by Richards, both as a short favorite against the Tigers and Mariners. However, Los Angeles is 9-2 in Richards’ 11 road outings this season, while the Angels own a dynamic 9-1 record in their last 10 Game 2’s of an away series.

Blue Jays at Red Sox – 7:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Buehrle (10-7, 3.19 ERA)
BOS: Workman (1-3, 4.13 ERA)

Series recap: The Jays continued their recent domination of the Red Sox, beating Boston for the fifth time in the past week with last night’s 4-2 triumph. Even more impressive than that streak is Toronto’s perfect 5-0 record this season at Fenway Park, as the Jays have outscored the Sox, 38-13 in Beantown.

What to watch for: With Jon Lester scratched due to a possible trade, the Sox turn to Workman, who has lost each of his past four starts. Toronto has won nine of its past 11 games, but the club owns a dreadful 1-6 record in its previous seven Game 3’s of a road series. The Sox have dropped seven of their last eight contests, while scoring just six runs in the past four games.

Braves at Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Wood (7-8, 3.44 ERA)
LA: Greinke (12-6, 2.74 ERA)

Series recap: The Dodgers rallied for an 8-4 victory last night after trailing early, 4-2. Los Angeles cashed as -140 home favorites to win four straight games for the first time this season. Prior to Tuesday, the Dodgers had won three consecutive contests seven times in 2014, but never managed to capture four straight victories before last night.

What to watch for: Los Angeles is 6-2 when Greinke starts at Chavez Ravine, while the right-hander split a pair of starts against Atlanta last season. Wood has alternated between the starting rotation and the bullpen for the Braves, but the southpaw has won just once in his past five starts away from Turner Field. Atlanta has done a solid job of rebounding following a poor pitching effort, compiling a 6-2 record the past eight games after allowing at least six runs.

Cardinals at Padres – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
STL: Kelly (2-1, 3.90 ERA)
SD: Hahn (6-2, 2.12 ERA)

Series recap: The Padres put up just three runs, but that was enough to knock off the Cardinals, 3-1 on Tuesday night as -115 home favorites. San Diego improved to 8-3 in its past 11 games at Petco Park, while moving to 5-2 in its previous seven home matchups with St. Louis since 2012.

What to watch for: Since losing his Major League debut to Pittsburgh, the Padres have won six of Hahn’s last seven starts, including consecutive road underdog triumphs over the Dodgers and Braves. Kelly struggled in his last outing against the Cubs by allowing five earned runs and eight hits in less than five innings of a 7-6 defeat. Last night’s loss dropped St. Louis to 5-6 on the road against NL West foes this season, while scoring two runs or less for the sixth time in this span.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

#956: Marlins: +130 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Roark/Hand

#965/966: Athletics/Astros: Under 8.5 (-125) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Hammel/Keuchel

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

MLB Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Time: Wednesday 07/30 12:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -153 (moneyline)

The Miami Marlins played as an improved team from a year ago, and have recently caught fire. They have won six straight games as an underdog. That may sound like a hard and difficult path to go against, but over the last 10 years a team that has won six consecutive games as an underdog have met with an ugly fate as they carry a -12.4% ROI if you choose to play on them and go with the hot hand. That rises to -14.3% if they are a dog again, which is the case here. And they are just 1-5 if they are a home dog. The Nationals have been great in the role of a road favorite where they are 57-28 in their last 85. This one goes against the hot team, so play on Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE

ESPN MLB Wednesday Night Knockout LA Angels ML

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SCOTT SPREITZER

Day Dog Milwaukee Brewers ML

Afternoon Annihilator Washington Nationals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

Colorado +109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

St Louis +108

[golden contender]

Hump day Triple pack has the MLB Game of the Week with a 31-1 Power angle, the 5* 95% Road warrior system and a totals system that has won 19 of 22 times. Free plays 19-6 run. MLB Afternoon system Play below.

On Wednesday the free MLB System Play is on Oakland. Game 965 at 2:10 eastern. Oakland fit a league wide system that has cashed 11 straight times and plays on road favorites of -140 or more that scored 5 or more runs in their last game if they were a road favorite of -190 or higher and are taking on a team off a loss. The A/s are a solid 11-2 this year as a road favorite off a road win where they scored or more runs. They have also won 5 of 6 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and are scoring 6 runs per game the past week. In games where the total is 8 to 8.5 they have won 23 of 31. Houston is 16-56 in July the past few years and have dropped 10 of the last 12 vs winning teams. Today they have Keuche on the mound and he has a 1-3 record and 6.23 era vs Oakland. The Athletics counter with J. Hammel who has won 3 of 4 vs Houston with a 1.69 era allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings against them in his last 3 starts. Look for Oakland to take another from Houston. On Wednesday their are 3 Big MLB power system plays up led by the 31-1 MLB Power Angle Game of the Week and a 5* Road warrior 95% system play as well as a 19-3 totals system. Get on now and cash all 3. For the free play take Oakland. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 970 CLE (-105) vs 969 SEA

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DHayes2

1* St Louis Cardinals ML+100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes | MLB Money Line

953 ARI (+107) vs 954 CIN
Analysis:
MLB – 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. A. Simon)

Catching Wade Miley against this Reds offense @plus money is a valuable bet IMO, and I’m just pulling the trigger…

I’ve made a play w/ ARI in Miley’s last start that was lost (it wasn’t even close)!

“Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.”

Bad days happen and I expect him to bounce back today against a CIN offense that is ranked #22 OPS vs. LHP’s, is batting .186 BA in L10 games vs. LHP’s and has a putrid mark of 25.7 K% – ranked #29 in the league!

On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!

I have Wade Miley way above Alfredo Simon in my Power Rankings, and w/ the way the Reds are struggling offensively lately, I’m taking the Diamondbacks in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ +107



MLB – 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. B. Hand)

I think that we are getting some value w/ WAS especially in the first 5IP’s of the game, as I expect Roark to “outpitch” Brad Hand. The Nationals lost the first 2 games of the series w/ both of them being decided late in the games, so there will be some sense of urgency from them today since the start.

T. Roark has been outstanding lately w/ 3 consecutive great starts in which he allowed 1ER in each game & a nice 17/2 K/BB ratio to show. MIA is ranked #29 in K% (23.3%) for the season and lately things haven’t change at all as MIA is ranked #25 w/ 23.8% in K% in the last 14 days. Roark has some nice K’s numbers w/ 7.07 K/9 in this month, so MIA is a good matchup for him.

On the other end, I’ve faded B. Hand in his last start (took the OVER) vs. HOU, but he performed quite well. Actually, his L2 starts were good vs. SF & HOU but these two teams are struggling offensively as of late. WAS is a top 10 offensive team vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #8 w/ .744 OPS.

While Hand might had the “factor surprise” working for him in those two starts, this won’t happen in here as WAS has already faced him twice this season w/ good results w/ 5 & 3 runs scored!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 First 5 IP’s Washington Nationals (-0.5) (w/ T. Roark) @ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5
Buehrle/Workman

Mark Buehrle has been awful in his last few starts giving up a ton of runs while this Bluejays team is scoring a ton of runs. Workman has been subpar as of late and this total really should be higher. I feel like one of these teams has the ability to beat the total themselves. Toronto's bats have been hot and a total under 9 is great value in this spot. Let's just cheer for scoring. Take the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take Tampa Bay and Milwaukee to fly OVER 7!
Take PHILADELPHIA +135 to take a bite out of the big apple!
Take CLEVELAND +105 to force the M's to re-route!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOSH DANIELS

3* Arizona Diamondbacks ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino
Today's Selections


MLB: NY Mets, Detroit, Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB: NY Mets, Detroit, Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster

Play of Day:
Padres -115

Money Generator Plays:
Arizona +100
Pittsburgh +105
Cleveland -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GiLzTips

. [966] HOU/OAK UNDER 8.5 (-120) *S*

. [972] BAL/LAA UNDER 8 (+100) *S*

. [954] CIN/ARI UNDER 7 (+100) *S*

. [969] Mariners ML (+100) = [2]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)

5* Oakland A’s ML-147

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRANCISCO

Posted at 11:20 AM EST
3:45 PM EST. The Pirates have won the first two games of this series while outscoring the Giants 8-2. San Fran has now dropped six in a row and they have scored one run or less in five of those games. Overall the Giants have scored six runs in their last six games. Backing a favorite that is seeing golf balls can’t be recommended and the Giants don’t get much of a break here in facing Charlie Morton. Talk about Charlie Morton and you’ll probably end up talking about Roy Halladay. The backstory is simple enough: Morton was bad, and he wanted to not be bad, so he went to a new delivery that looked a lot like Halladay’s. People chuckle, because Halladay simply had one of the best pitcher peaks ever, while Morton’s was just a guy on a team. But ignore the Halladay angle and it’s clear that Morton has turned himself into something. Since changing his delivery, Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any SP in MLB. He also has one of the highest groundball rates in the game at 55%. Morton has one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swing and miss rate) and his 3.38 ERA on the year is supported by his xERA of 3.42.

Walks and an elevated hr/f are the difference between now and the glory days for Tim Lincecum. His K’s/9 by month has seen a progressive drop of 9.5, 8.8, 6.3, which is explained by his declining velocity per month of 92.3 MPH in April followed by, 90.4 in May, 90.2 in June and 89.8 in July. Lincecum comes in with an ERA of 3.96 and an xERA of 3.62. There is no question that’s he’s still a serviceable starter but a three-year skills decline and a lot of miles on his 30-year-old arm says he’s becoming too much of a risk as a favorite. Hot versus cold (Pirates have scored 41 runs in their past seven games) gets the call.

Our Pick
Pittsburgh +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 over BALTIMORE

Posted at 11:20 AM EST
Kevin Gausman has allowed one earned run or less in six of his nine starts, but his skills haven't kept up with the results, as he has only three pure quality starts in nine attempts. He also has three disasters in those nine starts. The lack of skill support thus far makes him a high risk in a home matchup with the Angels. In five home starts, Gausman has a 4.33 ERA, with only a 14/10 K/BB ratio in 27 IP. The Angels have the league's best road OPS at .774.

The Orioles are 13 games above .500 and if they go on to win the division and do more damage in the playoffs, they will become one of those ESPN 30/30 features. It’s actually mind-boggling how a team this bad can win so many games. Baltimore’s best starter is who? Its best starter (whoever that is) couldn’t crack the rotation on 25% of the teams in this league. Its worst starter and there’s not much difference between first and worst, would be in the minors on 50% of the teams in this league. They’ve done it with offense you say? Uh, no they have not. As a team they are hitting .259. Over the past 20 games the Orioles are hitting a major-league worst .203, which is the exact same BA of the Cincinnati Reds over that same span. Yet the Reds, with a rotation that is about a million times better than the Orioles rotation has lost 10 of their past 12 games. Baltimore’s W/L record is a direct result of luck and fluke and the ability of several hitters to go deep. When this team does not hit a home run or two or three, they do not score runs and that bodes well here for Garett Richards. In 137 frames, Richards has been taken yard just four times. Richards has added more strikeouts and fastball velocity than any other SP from 2013 to 2014. His current 3.09 xERA provides nearly full support to his 2.62 ERA and his skills have been some of the game's best over the last month: 9.9 K’s/9, 2BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. This will be his first game against the Orioles this season and he pitched only four innings against them last season in three relief appearances. The Orioles are going to get blown out in several games down the stretch and we’re suggesting this is very likely one of them.

Our Pick
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Colorado @ CHICAGO
Colorado +104 over CHICAGO

Posted at 11:20 AM EST.
Travis Wood had some promise coming into this season. A falling ERA and a nice dominant start/disaster start split were signs of a young pitcher figuring it out, right? Maybe so but Travis Wood’s fortunate hit %, strand%, and hr/f sure helped. His skills over the past three years show this isn't a special skill set and it’s getting worse. Wood is setting up to be one of the best fades in the second half and we’ll put that to the test here. After a nice 3.52 ERA in April, Wodd’s stats have deteriorated. The biggest culprit has been a terrible monthly control trend of 2.1 BB/9 in April followed by monthly BB/9 of 3.7, 5.2 and 5.8. Over the past month covering five starts and 25 innings, Wood has a brutal groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/31%/36%. Over that same span his WHIP is an eye-opening and alarming 2.01. Travis Wood might be injured and doesn’t want to say so or he’s just completely lost it and/or his confidence. Either way, he’s instant fade material.

Here’s an interesting tidbit: Brett Anderson has spent the equivalent of two years on the disabled list since 2011. That small exposure has him extremely undervalued and we’re all over it. Anderson’s xERA shows that his skills are intact. His hr/f rate and hit% conspired against him in 2013 but that was then and this is now. What we see right now is a guy with an elite 62% groundball rate after six appearances, four as a starter. In his last two starts covering 13.1 innings, Anderson has allowed just seven hits and one run. His line drive rate of 16% this season in 33 innings is the best in the majors but it’s a small sample size so he does not qualify. Still, we would not ignore a guy with a 62%/16% groundball/line-drive split coming off back-to-back gems. Rockies may be the best value on today’s board.

Our Pick
Colorado +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)
2-Unit Play. Take #965 Oakland (-140) over Houston (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (12:10 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

50 Dime Mariners/Indians Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al DeMarco

15 DIME Los Angeles and Zack Greinke -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Birdman 5* (104-63) According to pickmonitor
7/30 7:05PM Los Angeles Angels (G. Richards) vs Baltimore Orioles (K. Gausman)
5.00 Units: [971] Los Angeles Angels -121

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff clement

7* arizona +105
8* washington -150
8* la angels -128

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS (MLB)

6* LA Dodgers ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

Atlanta Braves +160

Chicago Cubs -113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BURNS

10* KC Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS / Doc’s site

6* KC Royals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

Under 6.5 in the Seattle/ Cleveland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Seattle
Boston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Capfox

mlb

Seattle under 6.5
St. Louis under 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Shadow Sports Syndicate

LA Angels -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

"Mr Chalk" had a parlay in MLB today with the Red Sox and Lester Pitching and the Royals but Workman is pitching for the Red Sox so the parlay is a Np.

Ben lee is 0-1 -$61 for week Forty 178-212-5 -$2869

"Mr Chalk" is 54-40 -$348 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

7-30-14 early pre season parlay card

NFL PARLAY =242 Buffalo -2 with 242 Under 32.5
NFL PARLAY =254 Washington -2 with 254 Under 37
NFL PARLAY =255 SF PK with 255 Over 35
NFL PARLAY =259 Seattle +2 with 259 Under 37

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Kansas City Royals -144 over the Minnesota Twins (Bet Level 3) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:10 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie sports

500
cubs over 8
cleveland under 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog

#963: Cardinals: +110 (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Kelly/Hahn


#977/978: Twins/Royals: Under 7.5 (-105) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Hughes/Duffy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BigBaseballBets

7/30 10* play
Bal un8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

Colorado 1st 5 +100 1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

Cleveland Indians ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (MLB)

7-Unit Play. Take #971 L.A. Angels (-135) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
The Angels lost another heartbreaker to the Orioles yesterday. They have lost three of four to the O’s over the last week. But I think the Angels are very motivated to even up this series and have a chance of winning it. The Angels are 12-3 in Game 2 of a series and they are 22-7 in their last 29 games after a loss. The Angels have won 25 of 34 games overall and they are going to bounce back today. Los Angeles has had a great season from today’s starter Garrett Richards. He has won four straight on the road and is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. Richards is also 23-7 when he is posted as a favorite. I like the Angels to rebound here. I think this is one of the best teams in the A.L. and they let one get away from them yesterday. But they are going to make up for it today with a winner. Take the visitors.

3-Unit Play. Take #969 Seattle (-110) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING AS A BUSINESS

MLB (7:05 et)
Baltimore (Gausman) +123 / LA Angels (Richards) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Baltimore)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS LOCKSMITH

2* Minnesota/Kansas City – Under 7

2* Toronto Blue Jays ML+101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)

2-Unit Play. Take #965 Oakland (-140) over Houston (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #973 Toronto (+105) over Boston (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #978 Kansas City (-145) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

Today’s Totals

7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 (+105) – Minnesota at Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (12:10 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 – Toronto at Boston (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 – N.Y. Yankees at Texas (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 6.5 – Seattle at Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 – Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)