8-27-14

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Week #1 Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Nick Saban is not ready to make a call at starting quarterback and lists Blake Sims and transfer Jacob Coker as co-starters for Saturday's season opener against West Virginia. Coker, a transfer from Florida State who arrived on campus in the spring, is a big pocket passer with very good arm strength. He was presumed the starter, but Sims has more time in the offense and his comfort level was evident in fall camp. Coker (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) was Jameis Winston's backup at Florida State. He is a pro-style quarterback akin to AJ McCarron, whereas Sims was used mostly in a read-option niche role. "Whatever pitcher starts the game isn't necessarily going to pitch nine innings," Saban said on Monday. A determination on the starter might not come until game day.

•Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller will have season-ending shoulder surgery on Tuesday, coach Urban Meyer announced. Miller, who is right-handed, tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder last week. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery. Miller has been a standout athletic quarterback for the Buckeyes when healthy. Last season as a junior, he threw for 2,094 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games. He also ran for 1,068 yards with 12 TDs. It was his second straight season rushing for at least 1,000 yards. Ohio State opens the season Saturday against Navy in Baltimore. J.T. Barrett, a redshirt freshman who has not taken a snap in college, will start in place of Miller.

•Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker is sidelined for six to eight weeks with a broken bone in his left foot, coach Bobby Petrino announced. Parker, a senior, was scheduled to have surgery on Monday. The earliest Parker could return is Oct. 11 against Clemson. Parker was injured during practice Friday night. He traveled to Charlotte, N.C., on Sunday to be examined by Dr. Robert Anderson, who specializes in foot and ankle injuries.

NCAACF Opening Line Report - Week #1
College football is finally going to have a playoff this year – sort of, with four teams getting a shot at the National Title come season’s end. A few teams that expect to be in the mix will get things rolling when the 2014 campaign kicks off this week, led by Thursday night’s clash between #21 Texas A&M and #9 South Carolina. The host Gamecocks opened as 12-point chalk one month ago, with the number now at 10.5 as Aggies bettors have moved the needle a little bit, despite losing star quarterback Johnny Manziel to the National Football League.

But South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro says his place hasn’t seen any line shift. “We painted the game at -11 and have never moved off of it,” Vaccaro said. “This is a great way to start off the season, with two name-recognition teams. But there’s been nothing to make us move the line either way.”

•Clemson @ Georgia (-7.5)
This border battle was also the season opener for both teams last year, with Clemson winning a shootout 38-35 as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Bulldogs are ranked 12th in the preseason, and the Tigers enter Saturday’s game at No. 16. Vaccaro said the South Point opened the game at Georgia -8.5, but a $2,000 bet on Clemson tightened it a notch to 8.

“In a game like this, there will be plenty of support for both sides – both are marquee teams,” he said. “I feel like there’s a buzz with Georgia, with (coach) Mark Richt in a make-or-break season. It’s the right number, right where it should be.”

•Florida State (-17.5) Vs. Oklahoma State
Defending national champion Florida State is coming off a spot-less 14-0 season, and with Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston back at quarterback, the Seminoles are a consensus #1 in the preseason polls. The game is (8:00 PM EST) Saturday night at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. “We have the game at -18. It’s all small stuff. If the number goes up any higher, the smarts will get on Oklahoma State,” Vaccaro said, noting he indeed expects the number to jump.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the game went to -20.” Despite the Cowboys playing not too far from home? “I’ll bet a ham sandwich that there are as many Florida State fans in the stadium as Oklahoma State fans,” Vaccaro said.

•Wisconsin Vs. Louisiana State (-4)
It’s another neutral-site game, with both squads traveling to Houston’s NRG Stadium, home of the National Football League’s Texans. And it’s another top-25 battle, with LSU ranked 13th and Wisconsin 14th. “There’s not that much play on the game yet,” Vaccaro said. “Once again, it’s a great matchup, and it will draw plenty of attention, with a great time slot (9:00 PM EST). I’m gonna guess it closes at LSU -3.5. There will be plenty of Wisconsin money on game day.”

•Ohio State (-14) @ Navy
Ohio State opened as 19-point favorites for this quasi-neutral-site game, at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. But that was before the Buckeyes lost superstar QB Braxton Miller for the entire season due to a shoulder injury. “We opened at 17.5, went to 18, saw the injury report and went back to 12.5, and now we’re back to 14,” Vaccaro said. “I don’t know where this one’s going. If it goes up anymore, then you’re saying Miller is only worth 2 to 3 points. I would consider him worth more than that.”

NCAAF Line Watch - Week #1
Each and every week during the 2014-15 College Football season, StatSystems Sports Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. Note: Odds courtesy of LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

Spread To Bet Now

•Fresno State vs. USC (-21, Total: 58)
Southern Cal opened as 22-point home favorites, but the line has come down to a favorable number to back the Trojans. These two teams closed last season by playing in the Las Vegas Bowl and USC cruised to a 45-20 win. Fresno State lost QB Derek Carr to graduation along with five other offensive starters. With their best team in over a decade (11-2), the Bulldogs were no match for the Trojans.

USC has a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian, and reports out of Los Angeles say the team is focused and motivated for the upcoming season. The Trojans have a wealth of talent on hand, and their defense will be outstanding. This is a big statement game for the Trojans, and it comes against a team they simply dominate at every position. Lay the three touchdowns now before the sharp bettors take out the good number.

Spread To Wait On

•Arkansas (+20.5, Total: 57.5) @ Auburn
Auburn is currently a 20.5-point home favorite over Arkansas, but this line is likely to go higher as we get closer to kickoff. Public bettors often remember what they last saw, and that was Auburn a minute away from winning the National Championship last season.

Arkansas slogged through a miserable 3-9 season last year; the Razorbacks were 0-8 in SEC play, including a 35-17 home loss to Auburn. But in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema, Arkansas will be a much improved team. We expect this line to reach the important number of 21, and at that price and preferably with another half point, we suggest taking Arkansas in this game.

Total To Watch

•Clemson @ Georgia (-7.5, Total: 57.5)
This total opened at 58, and early money has come in on the Under. Clemson has to replace a lot of their potent offense of a season ago (40.4 points per game), and they will be starting an inexperienced QB under center. Clemson’s defense returns seven starters from a unit that only gave up 22.2 points per game in 2013.

Georgia’s offense is also an unknown commodity, and that unit has been fighting nagging injuries during camp. The Bulldogs’ defense has the potential to be one of the best in the country, and they should limit Clemson’s production in this game. This total is quite high considering the makeup of both teams, and it will likely continue to drop as we get closer to game day.

Easiest And Hardest Opening Schedules
One of the most discussed aspects of NCAA College Football is scheduling and, more specifically, how a teams' schedule can have a great impact on their season. StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst William Stillman take a look at some teams that will take it easy at the beginning of the season and some that will jump right into it...

Easiest Schedules

•Arizona State Sun Devils
Opponents: Weber State, at New Mexico, at Colorado

The Sun Devils' opponents combined to go 9-27 last season. The game to watch from a betting perspective is the Colorado game because the Buffs will be better than last year and ASU may be looking forward to their next opponent, UCLA.

•Mississippi State Bulldogs
Opponents: Southern Miss, UAB, at South Alabama

These teams also combined to go 9-27 with Southern Miss and UAB splitting just three wins between them. The game to watch is South Alabama because it's on the road and the Jaguars tend to play their opponents close, only losing one game by double digits in 2013.

•Duke Blue Devils
Opponents: vs. Elon, at Troy, vs. Kansas

With this opening schedule, the loss of offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will be minimized as his replacement will have time to ease into position. Keep an eye on the Troy game as they played the Blue Devils close in 2013, only losing by seven in Durham.

Hardest Schedules

•Clemson Tigers
Opponents: at Georgia, South Carolina State, at FSU

Even though there is a cupcake stuck in the middle, it doesn't get much tougher than this. Florida State has won the last three games in this series in Tallahassee against Clemson. Georgia will be looking to return the favor from last year when the Tigers won by three in Death Valley. From a betting perspective, remember that Georgia is 2-7-2 ATS in it's last 11 games and both Clemson and Georgia have a recent history of going over on points.

•Georgia Bulldogs
Opponents: vs. Clemson, at South Carolina, vs. Troy

The opener against Clemson will have a potential impact on the college football playoff and the last two times Georgia traveled to Columbia to play South Carolina they came up short. One thing to keep in mind is that Georgia gets a week off after the Clemson game while the Gamecocks will host East Carolina.

•South Carolina Gamecocks
Opponents: vs. Texas A&M, vs. East Carolina, vs. Georgia

One thing Carolina's first three opponents have in common is that they can score points in a hurry and that will be something to watch with the Gamecocks losing Connor Shaw this year. Another thing to watch is the East Carolina matchup as it's a classic trap game stuffed in between two conference encounters with one of those being a rivalry game. Don't forget that the Pirates beat two ACC teams last year and only lost to Virginia Tech by five.
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#133 TEXAS A&M @ #134 S CAROLINA
TV: 6:00 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Total: 58

The post-Johnny Manziel era is set to get underway for No. 20 Texas A&M, which faces a brutal season-opening test at South Eastern Conference rival and ninth-ranked South Carolina on Thursday night. Even though the Aggies must replace the former Heisman Trophy winner, many will argue that the Gamecocks endured an even bigger loss than Manziel with the departure of all-world defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the top overall pick in the National Football League draft. It will mark the first-ever meeting between the schools.

South Carolina, which never has won an SEC championship, is coming off three consecutive 11-win seasons under legendary head coach Steve Spurrier and was the preseason choice to win the East Division. Texas A&M was expected to struggle upon moving from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 but, buoyed by the wondrous talents of Manziel, the Aggies went 20-6 in their first two seasons and capped each with a bowl victory. Sophomore Kenny Hill will be in the spotlight after narrowly beating out Kyle Allen as Manziel's successor.

•ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2013: 9-4, 4-4 SEC): The Aggies led the SEC in scoring (44.2 ppg) and total offense (538.4 yards) for the second straight season, so the onus will be on Hill, who played sparingly as a freshman and threw for 183 yards on 16-of-22 over parts of four games. Senior Malcome Kennedy is the top returnee at wide receiver, but Ricky Seals-Jones and explosive freshman Speedy Noil are elite talents and will be counted on to replace NFL first-round pick Mike Evans, while Trey Williams, Tra Carson and Brandon Williams head a deep running back corps. Cornerback Deshazor Everett leads a defense that was singed for 151 points over the final four games last season and will hope for immediately production from freshman defensive end Myles Garrett, among the nation's top recruits.

•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2013: 11-2, 6-2 SEC): The Gamecocks also have a change under center, with longtime backup Dylan Thompson poised to take the reins after backing up Connor Shaw the past three seasons. Although fifth-year senior Thompson is more of a pure passer compared to dual-threat Shaw, South Carolina is expected to rely heavily on a ground game featuring Mike Davis, a preseason first-team SEC selection who rumbled for 1,183 yards last season and will be running behind one of the top offensive lines in the conference. While replacing Clowney will be impossible, the Gamecocks also suffered other key losses on the defensive side and will need big seasons from nose tackle J.T. Surratt, cornerback Brison Williams and freshman linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams.

•PREGAME NOTES: South Carolina and Alabama are the only South Eastern Conference programs to limit opponents to fewer than 21 points per game in each of the last three seasons.... Texas A&M is 10-2 away from home under coach Kevin Sumlin the past two seasons.... Davis has been bothered by a rib injury, but Spurrier expects him to be at "full speed" for the opener.

•KEY STATS
--TEXAS A&M is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) as a road underdog since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 19.9, OPPONENT 37.0.

--TEXAS A&M is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 26.8, OPPONENT 25.9.

--S CAROLINA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 10.2, OPPONENT 7.0.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992. Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TAM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--TAM is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
--TAM is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.

--SOCAR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--SOCAR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 4-0 in SOCAR last 4 games in August.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 6 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 3 times. 13 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *Edge against the total =OVER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 5 times, while the underdog covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 8 games went over first half total, while 5 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#135 WAKE FOREST @ #136 LA MONROE
TV: 7:02 PM EST, ESPNU, ESPN3
Line: Wake Forest -1, Total: 45.5

Dave Clawson's most recent rebuilding project gets underway Thursday evening, when Wake Forest travels to Louisiana-Monroe with hopes of avenging last season's two-point loss. Clawson has turned around programs at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, but he has his work cut out for him at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons lost six offensive starters and three All-Atlantic Coast Conference defensive players from last year's four-win team and have a tough opener on the road against a dangerous small-conference opponent.

Louisiana-Monroe was able to shut down the Demon Deacons' ground game in last year's 21-19 win in Winston-Salem, N.C. John Wolford takes the reins of the offense from four-year starter Tanner Price and will be the first true freshman to start his first game at Wake Forest since Mike McGlamry in 1974. The Warhawks also have a new signal-caller, with North Carolina State transfer Pete Thomas taking over for Kolton Browning.

•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (2013: 4-8): The Demon Deacons lost all of their top offensive players from a team that averaged a meager 18.3 points a year ago. Wolford won the starting quarterback job in the preseason and brings high expectations after breaking a litany of state records as a high school star in Jacksonville, Fla. The defense has a better foundation anchored by a strong secondary but will need the inexperienced offense to keep it off the field more than it was last year.

•ABOUT LOUISIANA-MONROE (2013: 6-6): Thomas, who played two seasons at Colorado State before transferring to N.C. State, has passed for 5,936 yards in three years as a starter at the two previous stops. He's a good fit for Todd Berry's spread attack and has the Warhawks' leading receiver back in Rashon Ceaser (65 receptions, 964 yards, five TDs). The defense returns nine starters from a unit that improved as the season went on, but the two losses were big ones - leading tackler Cameron Blakes and safety Isaiah Newsome, who returned two of his team-high four interceptions for touchdowns.

•PREGAME NOTES: Thomas faced the Demon Deacons last season with N.C. State, completing 27-of-43 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown in a 28-13 Wolfpack loss.... The Warhawks are opening at home for the first time since 2007 and have won their home opener five of the last six years.... Wake Forest RB Dominique Gibson, the team's top returning rusher, is suspended for the first three games for violating team rules.

•KEY STATS
--WAKE FOREST is 31-15 UNDER (+14.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 25.1, OPPONENT 21.2.

--LA MONROE is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was LA MONROE 16.6, OPPONENT 35.6.

•COACHING TRENDS
--DAVE CLAWSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 27.3, OPPONENT 20.2.

--TODD BERRY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BERRY 26.3, OPPONENT 33.3.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA MONROE is 1-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--LA MONROE is 1-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--LA MONROE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Under is 8-2 in WAKE last 10 road games.
--Under is 21-7 in WAKE last 28 games overall.

--ULM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--ULM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in August.
--ULM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 29 times, while the underdog covered the spread 19 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 35 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 43 games went under the total, while 30 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 26 times, while the underdog covered first half line 26 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went under first half total, while 29 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#137 TULANE @ #138 TULSA
TV: 8:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
Line: Tulsa -6.5, Total: 47

Tulsa will host a familiar foe in a new conference when Tulane visits Thursday night in their American Athletic Conference debuts. The Green Wave beat the Golden Hurricane 14-7 last year in a Conference USA matchup, snapping an eight-game losing streak to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are looking for a clean slate in the AAC after following their 2012 Conference USA championship with a disappointing season.

"Looking back on it, I clearly see we were kind of living off (the success of 2012), assuming we would just pick up where we left off," fourth-year coach Bill Blankenship told the Tulsa World. "This season feels way different. Partly because I think we're a lot more on edge. We're not assuming anything." Tulsa has lots of key players returning, including sophomore quarterback Dane Evans, while Tulane redshirt freshman quarterback Tanner Lee starts his first collegiate game. The young quarterbacks will face experienced secondary’s, led by Tulane's Lorenzo Doss and Tulsa's Michael Mudoh.

•ABOUT TULANE (2013: 7-6): "(Lee has) got a strong arm, command of our offense, great leadership skills and doesn't make many mistakes," third-year coach Curtis Johnson said of Lee, who beat out senior Nick Montana (53.4 completion percentage, 1,717 yards and 14 touchdowns in 11 starts last year) for the starting job. Redshirt freshman Sherman Badie and sophomore Lazedrick Thompson will try to replace the production of workhorse Orleans Darkwa (863 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) while senior Justyn Shackleford (36 catches, 419 yards, five TDs) is the leading returning receiver after the departure of fifth-round draft pick Ryan Grant (1,039 yards, nine TDs). Doss, who returned two of his seven interceptions for touchdowns last year, and safety Sam Scofield (team-high 104 tackles) return to a defense that was tied for second in the country with 35 takeaways.

•ABOUT TULSA (2013: 3-9): Evans played in eight games and started five, completing 84-of-195 passes for 898 yards and four touchdowns for the Golden Hurricane, who open at home for the first time since 2006. The return of junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who led Tulsa with 67 catches, 845 yards and nine touchdowns in 2012 before a season-ending leg injury in the second game of 2013, will bolster an offense that has to replace two 2,000-yard rushers. The Tulsa defense lost Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year Shawn Jackson but has nine starters back plus the return of senior safety Demarco Nelson (who sat out 2013 for academic reasons) and sophomore linebacker Trent Martin (who missed seven games with a knee injury).

•PREGAME NOTES: Mudoh, a junior safety, was tied for fourth nationally with 11.1 tackles per game last year.... Tulane sophomore LB Nico Marley, who earned Conference USA co-freshman of the year honors after recording 67 tackles during the 2013 season, is the grandson of music legend Bob Marley.... Tulsa allowed 198.9 rushing yards last year while Tulane ran for just 126.8 yards (ranked 101st out of 123 teams).

•KEY STATS
--TULSA is 2-10 against the 1rst half line (-9.0 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 9.8, OPPONENT 17.3.

--TULSA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 10.3, OPPONENT 22.3.

•COACHING TRENDS
--CURTIS JOHNSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of TULANE.
The average score was TULANE 28.2, OPPONENT 27.3.

--CURTIS JOHNSON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of TULANE.
The average score was TULANE 25.1, OPPONENT 27.1.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TULSA is 8-1 against the spread versus TULANE since 1992.
--TULSA is 8-1 straight up against TULANE since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TULSA is 7-2 versus the first half line when playing against TULANE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TULN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in TULN last 5 road games.
--Under is 3-0-1 in TULN last 4 games overall.

--TLSA 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Over is 5-1 in TLSA last 6 home games.
--Under is 2-0-2 in TLSA last 4 games in August.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 44 times, while the underdog covered the spread 44 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 69 times, while the underdog won straight up 23 times. 63 games went under the total, while 20 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 46 times, while the underdog covered first half line 40 times. *No EDGE. 58 games went under first half total, while 24 games went over first half total. *Edge against first half total =UNDER.
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#139 OLE MISS vs. #140 BOISE ST
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 54

Mississippi looks to build on an eight-win campaign when it opens the season Thursday night against Boise State in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Atlanta. The No. 19 Rebels have hopes of being a surprise contender in the South Eastern Conference West, the loaded division that includes Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The Broncos are playing their first game under new head coach Bryan Harsin, who took over after highly successful Chris Peterson left to become Washington’s coach.

Harsin was Boise State’s offensive coordinator from 2006-10 and returned to his hometown of Boise after one season as Arkansas State’s coach. Coincidentally, third-year Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze also served a one-season stint (2011) at Arkansas State before landing the Rebels’ gig. The Broncos have won more games (155) than any other school since the beginning of the 2000 season, but last season’s win total of eight was their lowest since 2001.

•ABOUT BOISE STATE (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Grant Hedrick isn’t a polished thrower but did have 16 touchdowns passes last season against only five interceptions while also being productive on the ground (277 yards, six TDs). Junior running back Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 1,425 yards and 18 touchdowns, is a powerful physical specimen with an NFL future while senior wideout Matt Miller (88 receptions for 1,140 yards, 12 TDs) is the top target. Defensively, the Broncos are led by junior cornerback Donte Deayon (six interceptions) and sophomore linebacker Ben Weaver (89 tackles).

•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace is coming off a season in which he passed for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns but has been prone to turnovers and questionable decision-making during his career. Sophomore receiver Laquon Treadwell caught 72 passes last season but averaged just 8.4 yards per catch while juniors I’Tavius Mathers (563 yards) and Jaylen Walton (523) will split the ball-carrying duties. Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles).

•PREGAME NOTES: Boise State isn’t ranked to start a season for the first time since 2008.... Ole Miss, which has won five consecutive non-conference games, has never previously faced the Broncos.... Rebels WR Sammie Epps was suspended after getting arrested for possession of marijuana earlier this month.

•KEY STATS
--OLE MISS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 35.9, OPPONENT 24.6.

--BOISE ST is 119-68 against the 1rst half line (+44.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 21.7, OPPONENT 9.8.

•COACHING TRENDS
--HUGH FREEZE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Freeze 36.9, OPPONENT 21.0.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992: Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in MISS last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 9-3 in MISS last 12 games on fieldturf.

--BSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--BSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in BSU last 5 games on fieldturf.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 63 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *EDGE against the spread =BOISE ST. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 32 times. 50 games went under the total, while 39 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 57 times, while the favorite covered first half line 33 times. *No EDGE. 44 games went over first half total, while 42 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
________________________________________________

#139 OLE MISS vs. #140 BOISE ST
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 54

Mississippi looks to build on an eight-win campaign when it opens the season Thursday against Boise State in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Atlanta. The No. 19 Rebels have hopes of being a surprise contender in the SEC West, the loaded division that includes Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The Broncos are playing their first game under new coach Bryan Harsin, who took over after highly successful Chris Peterson left to become Washington’s coach.

Harsin was Boise State’s offensive coordinator from 2006-10 and returned to his hometown of Boise after one season as Arkansas State’s coach. Coincidentally, third-year Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze also served a one-season stint (2011) at Arkansas State before landing the Rebels’ gig. The Broncos have won more games (155) than any other school since the beginning of the 2000 season, but last season’s win total of eight was their lowest since 2001.

•ABOUT BOISE STATE (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Grant Hedrick isn’t a polished thrower but did have 16 touchdowns passes last season against only five interceptions while also being productive on the ground (277 yards, six TDs). Junior running back Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 1,425 yards and 18 touchdowns, is a powerful physical specimen with an NFL future while senior wideout Matt Miller (88 receptions for 1,140 yards, 12 TDs) is the top target. Defensively, the Broncos are led by junior cornerback Donte Deayon (six interceptions) and sophomore linebacker Ben Weaver (89 tackles).

•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace is coming off a season in which he passed for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns but has been prone to turnovers and questionable decision-making during his career. Sophomore receiver Laquon Treadwell caught 72 passes last season but averaged just 8.4 yards per catch while juniors I’Tavius Mathers (563 yards) and Jaylen Walton (523) will split the ball-carrying duties. Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles).

•PREGAME NOTES: Boise State isn’t ranked to start a season for the first time since 2008.... Ole Miss, which has won five consecutive non-conference games, has never previously faced the Broncos.... Rebels WR Sammie Epps was suspended after getting arrested for possession of marijuana earlier this month.

•KEY STATS
--OLE MISS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 35.9, OPPONENT 24.6.

--BOISE ST is 119-68 against the 1rst half line (+44.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 21.7, OPPONENT 9.8.

•COACHING TRENDS
--HUGH FREEZE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Freeze 36.9, OPPONENT 21.0.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992: Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in MISS last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 9-3 in MISS last 12 games on fieldturf.

--BSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--BSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in BSU last 5 games on fieldturf.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 63 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *EDGE against the spread =BOISE ST. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 32 times. 50 games went under the total, while 39 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 57 times, while the favorite covered first half line 33 times. *No EDGE. 44 games went over first half total, while 42 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
_________________________________

#141 TEMPLE @ #142 VANDERBILT
TV: 9:15 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: Vanderbilt -14, Total: 52

Vanderbilt looks to extend its bowl streak to four years while rebuilding under former Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason, who takes over the helm from James Franklin. The Commodores must replace more than half their starters as they begin that quest against visiting Temple on Thursday evening after ending 2013 with five straight victories. Patton Robinette won a three-way competition for the Vanderbilt quarterback job and Temple counters with promising sophomore P.J. Walker under center.

Robinette came off the bench to help Vanderbilt beat Georgia and was the starter when the Commodores won at Florida for the first time in 68 years last season. "(Robinette) has really made strides and consistently improved from spring to now," Mason told reporters. Coach Matt Rhule begins his second season at Temple and expects progress from Walker, who threw 20 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the last eight contests of 2013 while helping the Owls win their only two games.

•ABOUT TEMPLE (2013: 2-10): Walker (2,084 passing yards) should get solid support from a deep group of running backs, led by Kenneth Harper (613 rushing yards, nine TDs in 2013) and Zaire Williams (533 yards). However, an inexperienced offensive line will have to improve from last year when it allowed 32 sacks. Junior linebacker Tyler Matakevich keys the defense for the Owls after leading the nation in solo tackles per game (8.8) and being named first team All-American Athletic Conference.

•ABOUT VANDERBILT (2013: 9-4): Robinette threw four TD passes and five interceptions in 88 pass attempts last season for Franklin, who took over as Penn State’s new coach in the offseason. Juniors Jerron Seymour (716 rushing yards, 14 TDs) and Brian Kimbrow (341, three) provide experience in the backfield and sophomore Jordan Cunningham is poised to emerge as a big-time receiving target after Jordan Matthews left for the NFL. Mason will transition to a 3-4 base defense with only three returning starters.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Commodores have won nine games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in the program’s history.... Temple dropped a 43-14 decision at Vanderbilt in their last meeting in 2006.... Vanderbilt P Taylor Hudson was picked third team preseason All-SEC after averaging 42.9 yards in 2013.

•KEY STATS
--TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 25.0, OPPONENT 30.4.

--VANDERBILT is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) the 1rst half total in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was VANDERBILT 9.5, OPPONENT 10.3.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT since 1992.
--VANDERBILT is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TEMPLE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against VANDERBILT since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--TEM is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in August.
--Under is 4-1 in TEM last 5 games in August.

--VAN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--VAN is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.
--Over is 6-2 in VAN last 8 non-conference games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 31 times, while the favorite covered the spread 18 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 44 times, while the underdog won straight up 5 times. 45 games went over the total, while 42 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 27 times, while the favorite covered first half line 20 times. *No EDGE. 42 games went under first half total, while 41 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
_______________________________________________

#143 RUTGERS vs. #144 WASHINGTON ST
TV: 10:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
Line: Washington St. -8, Total: 62

Rutgers makes its Big Ten Conference debut Thursday night when it meets Washington State for the first time - at Century Link Field in Seattle. The Scarlet Knights, who were picked to finish last in the seven-team East Division by Big Ten writers, enter a conference known for its physical play but head coach Kyle Flood said they are up to the challenge. "We've played physical offenses before, we've played bigger teams before," Flood told reporters. "We've never built our team to be the biggest team. It's not philosophically how we go about things. But when we've played at a high level, we've been able to compete with anybody in the country."

The Cougars, who were selected to finish fifth in the Pac-12's six-team North Division, should have no trouble scoring with record-setting quarterback Connor Halliday calling the signals, but stopping the opponent is another story. Washington State, which yielded 458 yards per game in 2013 - 102nd among the 123 FBS teams - returns its entire defensive line but must replace three starters in the secondary. One way to help the defense is to develop a running game, which was last in the nation at 53.4 yards per game last season - but the emergence of freshman Gerard Wicks and Jamal Morrow could also help take some pressure off Halliday.

•ABOUT RUTGERS (2013: 6-7): The Scarlet Knights will need a strong running game and junior Paul James (881 yards, 5.6 per carry, nine touchdowns) returns to carry the load. Ralph Friedgen, who coached Maryland from 2001-10 but has been unemployed for three years, was hired as offensive coordinator and is expected to help develop quarterback Gary Nova. The 6-2, 220-pound senior completed 54.5 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season.

•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (2013: 6-7): Halliday, a 6-4, 210-pound senior from Spokane, Wash., passed for a school-record 4,597 yards in 2013 - second-most in Pac-12 history. Halliday also set school standards for completions (449) and attempts (714), and equaled the school record with 34 touchdown passes. Halliday, who threw 22 interceptions last season, welcomes a stronger running presence, telling the Spokesman-Review: "It’s huge. You’re not throwing into windows that are that small and the defensive line can’t pin their ears back and come upfield because if they do that we’ll hit them inside with a trap and get it right up the middle.”

•PREGAME NOTES: The Cougars return their top eight receivers including junior Gabe Marks, who hauled in a team-high 74 passes (10.9 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns.... Rutgers has won four of its last five season openers, with its blemish a 52-51 overtime setback at Fresno State last season.... Century Link Field, home of the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, is nearly 300 miles from Washington State's campus in Pullman.

•KEY STATS
--RUTGERS is 32-14 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was RUTGERS 27.7, OPPONENT 21.9.

--RUTGERS is 33-15 UNDER (+16.5 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was RUTGERS 24.1, OPPONENT 25.2.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992. Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 4-0 in RUTG last 4 road games.
--Under is 5-1 in RUTG last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 25-10 in RUTG last 35 non-conference games.

--WSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
--WSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--WSU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 19 times, while the underdog covered the spread 15 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 29 times, while the underdog won straight up 7 times. 10 games went under the total, while 9 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 21 times, while the underdog covered first half line 13 times. *No EDGE. 11 games went under first half total, while 8 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks



WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (8/25)


Game 301-302: Abilene Christian at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Abilene Christian 51.889; Georgia State 64.659
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Detroit Tigers -125 over New York Yankees - pending
Washington Nationals -156 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 83-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 83-61


Rest of the Plays
San Diego Padres +124 over Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta Braves -132 over NY Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -120 over Pittsburgh Pirates

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Palmeiras + Atletico MG UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 626-22, lost last game)
Overall Record: 626-518-90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League

Nationals-Phillies
Fister is 2-1, 2.31 in his last four starts.
Kendrick is 1-0, 7.71 in his last three starts.

Nationals won 12 of their last 15 games, but lost last two.
Phillies are 13-6 in their last nineteen home games.

Last four Fister starts went over the total.

Cardinals-Pirates
Wainwright is 2-3, 6.03 in his last five starts.
Locke is 3-0, 3.42 in his last four starts.

Cardinals won nine of their last thirteen games.
Pirates lost nine of their last thirteen games.

Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Wainwright starts.

Braves-Mets
Teheran is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
Wheeler is 5-0, 2.54 in his last ten starts.

Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring five runs.
Mets lost five of their last eight games.

Five of last six New York games went over total.

Cubs-Reds
Wood is 0-5, 6,71 in his last nine starts.
Cueto is 5-1, 2.45 in his last six starts.

Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
Cincinnati lost 11 of its last 14 games.

Seven of last nine Chicago games stayed under; over is 8-4-1 in Cincinnati's last thirteen games.

Dodgers-Diamondbacks
Kershaw is 4-1, 1.62 in his last six starts. .
Miley is 0-1, 2.29 in his last three starts.

Dodgers won four of their last five games.
Arizona lost eight of its last ten games.

Eight of last eleven Dodger games went over the total.

Brewers-Padres
Gallardo is 3-2, 3.48 in his last five starts.
Despaigne is 1-4, 7.04 in his last six starts.

Brewers won seven of their last eleven games.
San Diego lost six of its last nine games.

Under is 7-1 in Gallardo's last eight road starts.

Rockies-Giants
Morales is 0-3, 6.23 in his last five starts.
Hudson is 1-3, 4.86 in his last six starts.

Colorado won six of its last eight games.
Giants lost three of last four games, are 11-24 in last 35 home games.

Five of last six Morales road starts stayed under total.


American League

Rays-Orioles
Smyly is 2-1, 1.55 in four starts for Tampa Bay.
Gausman is 1-2, 3.94 in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay won four of its last six games.
Orioles lost four of their last five games.

Eight of last eleven Baltimore games stayed under.

Red Sox-Blue Jays
Kelly is 0-1, 4.09 in his four starts for Boston.
Stroman allowed 11 runs in 5.2 IP in losing his last two starts.

Boston lost eight of its last ten games, but won last two.
Toronto lost ten of its last thirteen games.

Five of last seven Boston games went over total.

Bronx-Tigers
Greene is 1-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
Price allowed two runs in 16 IP in splitting his last two starts.

Bronx won five of its last six games.
Detroit won seven of its last nine home games.

Eight of last eleven Bronx games stayed under total.

Twins-Royals
Hughes is 4-0, 1.32 in his last four starts
Hendriks was 1-0, 6.08 in three starts for Toronto earlier this spring; he was on the Twins from 2011-13, going 2-13 in 28 starts for them.

Minnesota lost seven of its last ten games.
Royals won 20 of their last 26 games.

Seven of last ten Minnesota games went over total.

A's-Astros
Pomeranz was 0-2, 5.71 in his last three starts before punching chair on June 16 and breaking his non-throwing hand- this is his first start back.
Peacock is starts.

Oakland lost eight of last ten road games.
Astros lost four of their last six games.

Six of last seven Houston games stayed under total.

Indians-White Sox
Kluber is 4-1, 1.32 in his last seven starts
Noesi is 2-2, 5.29 in his last five starts.

Cleveland won ten of its last fourteen games.
White Sox lost last seven games, allowing 41 runs.

12 of last 14 Cleveland games stayed under total.

Rangers-Mariners
Lewis is 0-3, 7.41 in his last three starts.
Ramirez is 0-1 in his last six starts, despite a 1.15 RA (total of 31.1 IP).

Rangers lost 13 of their last 19 road games.
Seattle won 15 of its last 20 games.

Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Lewis starts.


Interleague games

Marlins-Angels
Alvarez is 4-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
Santiago is 0-0, 1.59 in his last three starts; Angel bullpen is 1-5 in his last six starts.

Miami is 10-7 in its last seventeen games.
Angels won ten of their last fourteen games.

13 of last 19 Angel games stayed under the total.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Wainwright 18-8; Locke 9-6
-- Fister 14-5; Kendrick 14-12
-- Teheran 16-11; Wheeler 13-13
-- Turner 6-6/0-0; Latos 5-8
-- Gallardo 12-14; Despaigne 5-6
-- Kershaw 17-4; Miley 12-15 (0-4 last 4)
-- Morales 7-11; Hudson 15-9

-- Lewis 10-13; Ramirez 5-8
-- Smyly 6-12/2-2; Gausman 9-5
-- Greene 6-2; Price 14-9/2-2
-- Kelly 3-4/2-2; Stroman 7-8
-- Kluber 17-10; Noesi 11-10
-- Hughes 17-9; Hemdriks 3-0/0-0
-- Pomeranz 4-4; Peacock 7-12

-- Alvarez 17-7 (4-0 last 4); Santiago 5-13

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wainwright 4-26; Locke 8-15
-- Fister 5-19; Kendrick 14-26 (3 of last 3)
-- Teheran 8-27; Wheeler 7-26
-- Turner 5-12; Latos 1-13
-- Gallardo 7-26; Despaigne 4-11
-- Kershaw 3-21; Miley 5-27
-- Morales 3-18; Hudson 6-25 (5 of last 7)

-- Lewis 8-23; Ramirez 4-13
-- Smyly 6-22; Gausman 3-14
-- Greene 2-8; Price 9-27
-- Kelly 4-11; Stroman 3-15
-- Kluber 4-27; Noesi 6-21
-- Hughes 5-26; Hemdriks 0-3
-- Pomeranz 0-8; Peacock 7-19

-- Alvarez 6-24; Santiago 4-18

Umpires
-- StL-Pitt-- Under is 9-2-1 in last 12 Randazzo games.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Cederstrom games.
-- Atl-NY-- Six of last seven Muchlinski games stayed under.
-- Chi-Cin-- Favorites won nine of last eleven Fairchild games.
-- Mil-SD-- Last seven Ripperger games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Davis games.
-- Col-SF-- Home side won five of six Joyce games.

-- Bos-Tor-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Guccione games.
-- TB-Balt-- Seven of last Barry games stayed under total.
-- NY-Det-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Davidson games.
-- Cle-Chi-- Seven of last nine Drake games went over total.
-- Min-KC-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Kulpa games.
-- A's-Hst-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Emmel games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Favorites won 10 of last 12 Timmons games.

-- Mia-LAA-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Wolcott games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Royals' Ventura to miss start
The Sports Xchange

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Royals rookie right-hander Yordano Ventura will skip his Wednesday start because of a sore back.

"After his last start, he started experiencing some mid-back tightness and some little soreness," Royals manager Ned Yost said. "It's gotten better over the last couple of days, but it's something we really don't want to push. It's a precautionary. We think it's better to bang him one start and go from there."

Yost said a MRI detected "a little fluid back there, which is a sign of inflammation, but no damage at all."

Ventura is 10-9 with a 3.40 ERA in 25 games, 24 of them starts. He also missed a start earlier in the season with a tender elbow.

The Royals are optimistic Ventura will miss just one start and not have to go on the disabled list.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Reds RHP Bailey may miss rest of season
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

CINCINNATI -- Homer Bailey's prospects for pitching again this season are appearing more bleak. Bailey has not started a throwing program, and on Tuesday, manager Bryan Price said he's not close to doing so.

"He's not throwing, and he's not knocking on the door to start throwing," Price said. "He is being reevaluated to see if he's improved."

Bailey, on the disabled list since Aug. 16 with a strained right elbow, underwent a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection. PRP uses a portion of the patient's blood with platelet concentrations above baseline to promote healing of injured tendons, ligaments, muscles, and joints.

"Luckily, they numb it up," said Bailey. "I think it might be even bigger than a cortisone shot. They walk in with that needle and you're like, ‘What do you think you're going to do with that?' And they're like, ‘Exactly what you think we're going to do.'"

Bailey, who's 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 23 starts after signing a six-year, $105 million contract extension in February, said he has no idea if he'll return to the mound this season.

"I just kind of stay day-by-day," said the 28-year-old Bailey. "My mind says you can still throw, but I have a feeling if I would try to do that, it would prove to be quite wrong."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB


Mets' 3B David Wright, questionable Wednesday

Wright left Sunday's game due to muscle spasms and did not play Tuesday. He is questionable for Wednesday against the Braves.



Red Sox's DH David Ortiz, questionable Wednesday

Ortiz is dealing with a foot contusion and has missed the last two games. He is questionable for Wednesday against the Blue Jays.



Pirates' 3B Pedro Alvarez, doutbful Wednesday

Alvarez left the game Tuesday due to a left foot injury. He is not expected to return for Wednesday's game against the Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks Milwaukee at San Diego The Padres look to follow up last night's 4-1 win as they face a Brewers team that is 0-4 in Yovani Gallardo's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. San Diego is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.442; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.509
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over


Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 17.199; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.622
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under


Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.899; NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.720
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under


Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.824; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.128
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 959-960: Milwaukee at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.952; San Diego (Despaigne) 15.883
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Under


Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.178; Arizona (Miley) 13.710
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-210); Over


Game 963-964: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 16.021; San Francisco (Hudson) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over


Game 965-966: Texas at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.874; Seattle (Ramirez) 16.335
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Smyly) 14.520; Baltimore (Gausman) 15.861
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under


Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 16.904; Detroit (Price) 15.779
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+155); Under


Game 971-972: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Kelly) 14.339; Toronto (Stroman) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Over


Game 973-974: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 15.678; White Sox (Noesi) 13.620
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-180); Over


Game 975-976: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 16.221; Kansas City (Hendriks) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Under


Game 977-978: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 14.752; Houston (Peacock) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Over


Game 979-980: Miami at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 16.093; LA Angels (Santiago) 15.292
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play WED

Brewers w/ Gallardo -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo Rays-ing the roof!

Hondo cruised Tuesday night with the Tigers, whose Motown mow down of the Yankees slashed the accounts payable to 1,655 dempseys.

Wednesday night: Mr. Aitch is counting on Smyly for some grins — 10 units on the Rays to chop Baltimore down to size.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Oakland/Astros Over 8.5

Tampa Bay +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'College Football Is Back'

Things kicks off Thursday with South Carolina Gamecocks in a season lidlifter against Johnny Football-less Texas A&M. Gamecocks knocking off Badgers in the Capital One Bowl ended the 2013 campaign 11-2 (7-6 ATS) overall behind 34.1 PPG on 452.3 YPG with the defense surrendering 20.3 PPG on 350.0 YPG. Aggies off a 9-4 (5-8 ATS) season including a win vs Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl racked up 44.2 PPG on 538.3 YPG. At the defensive end, Aggies gave up 32.2 PPG on 475.8 YPG and surrendered an SEC-worst 222.3 rushing yards/game. Gamecocks are the clear favorite in this game (-10.5) but, the number shouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking Spurrier's troops. Sports handicappers familiar with early-season efforts by Gamecocks over the past few years know the squad has won fourteen consecutive season opener's (7-7 ATS) along with seven straight in front of the home crowd posting a 5-2 ATS mark against the betting line. What should also set off a trigger in the minds of those with a penchant for sports gaming, Gamecocks' running the table at home in 2013 going 7-0 (4-3 ATS) are now 18-0 (12-6 ATS) at Williams-Brice Stadium. Best of luck this season but above all enjoy the games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts
218-160 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.7% | 75.2 units )
29-28 this year. ( 50.9% | 2.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 25-12 (+15.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Wednesday, 8/27/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ ___

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #22
•MLB Denies Rays' Protest: Major League Baseball on Tuesday denied the formal protest filed by the Tampa Bay Rays regarding their Aug. 23rd game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Rays lost the game, 5-4 in 10 innings. But Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon protested the game because of a fourth inning decision by umpiring crew chief Bob Davidson. Davidson allowed Toronto manager John Gibbons to challenge a call at first base on an attempted picked off of Wil Myers. The call was overturned and Myers was call out. Blue Jays pitcher Mark Buehrle was standing on the rubber and Yunel Escobar was standing in the batter's box before Gibbons left the dugout to challenge the safe call. Maddon argued that because the players were in place, the challenge should not have been allowed.

"It's a legitimate protest," Maddon said. "Hitter in box, pitcher on the rubber, that locks the mechanism, period." On Tuesday, Joe Torre, executive vice president for baseball operations, denied Maddon's protest. Davidson stood by his decision after the game. "I've got everything in front of me," he said. "I see Buehrle, he's on the rubber, and as I'm seeing Escobar getting ready from my judgment to get into the box, now I see Gibbons giving the thumbs up that he's coming out. So I thought, in my judgment, that it was in time to file a challenge on the play. I'm looking at Gibbons and he's coming out, and he's not a speed merchant, and I thought, it's on time. We want to get the play correct, that's what we're out here for, so that was my thinking on that."

•Eaton Rejoins White Sox From DL: The Chicago White Sox activated outfielder Adam Eaton from the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday after a rehab stint in the minor leagues. Eaton suffered a strained oblique muscle earlier this month and was sidelined for nearly three weeks. In two weekend minor league rehab games with Triple-A Charlotte, Eaton went 3-for-10 with a double, an RBI and a stolen base. The 25-year-old Eaton was in the midst of a good first season with the White Sox before the injury, batting .304 with one home run and 32 RBIs and a .370 on-base percentage in 94 games. Eaton came to the White Sox during the offseason in a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks involving pitcher Hector Santiago.

•Cubs Set To Bring Up OF Soler: One of the talented young players in the well-stocked Chicago Cubs' farm system is expected to be called up to the big leagues. According to reports, Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler will join the Cubs before Wednesday's game against the Cincinnati Reds. The 22-year-old Soler is batting .338 this season in the minor leagues with 15 home runs and 54 RBIs for Triple-A Iowa, Double-A Tennessee and the Cubs' rookie league team in Mesa, Ariz. Soler was removed from Iowa's game against Tacoma on Monday night after belting a three-run homer, his eighth home run of the season for the Triple-A team, off Seattle Mariners pitching prospect Taijuan Walker.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Soler, called a "freakish athlete" by one of his teammate, defected from Cuba in 2011 and signed a nine-year, $30 million contract with the Cubs in June 2012. The Cubs, in last place in the National League East and trailing the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers by 14 1/2 games, have started to bring some of their top prospects to the majors. The most recent of the call-ups was outfielder Matt Szczur, a fifth-round draft pick in 2010. Other young players on the Cubs' roster include Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara.

•Giants Demote Lincecum To Bullpen: Tim Lincecum was demoted to the bullpen Monday. The question is: For how long? In announcing that the two-time Cy Young Award winner would be replaced by Yusmeiro Petit in the rotation effective immediately, San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy noted the new look will be re-evaluated after Petit's start Thursday against the Colorado Rockies. Bochy said he believes Lincecum's recent struggles -- he has 8-1, 7-4 and 6-2 losses among his last six starts -- are mostly mechanical and can be worked out in a series of bullpen sessions.

Skipping Lincecum at least once in the rotation gives him ample opportunity to space out three or four such sessions, Bochy noted. Petit, who has retired 38 consecutive batters in relief, is assured just one start. However, it is interesting to note his second start would be Sept 2 at Colorado, and Lincecum has been particularly bad (3-6 with a 6.33 ERA) on the road. The Rockies won the series opener between the teams Monday, taking a 3-2 win due in large part to a sloppy Giants defense that committed four errors.

•Mariners Give Hernandez Two Extra Days Of Rest: Lloyd McClendon's habit of shuffling his rotation to match up his best arms with playoff contenders continued Monday. The Seattle Mariners manager pushed Felix Hernandez's next start back two days -- from Wednesday to Friday. Rather than throwing Hernandez in Wednesday's series finale against the struggling Texas Rangers, the right-hander will get two extra days of rest -- Seattle has Thursday off -- before taking the mound Friday in the first game of a series against the Washington Nationals. McClendon has tried to cut back on his ace's innings, and he weighed pitching matchups since before the All-Star break, but his latest move might have the longest-lasting implications. It just so happens that Hernandez's revised five-day rotation would put him in position to be available for the Tuesday after the regular season -- meaning he could pitch the one-game wild-card matchup.

The biggest factor in moving Hernandez back is to provide some kind of in-season maintenance on an arm that has already thrown 191 innings this season. McClendon has been proactive in carefully monitoring Hernandez's pitch counts and giving him extra days of rest on several occasions. Friday would mark the 14th time this season that Hernandez starts on more than the typical four days of rest. He owns a 6-0 record and 1.83 ERA in 11 starts on five days rest and a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in two starts on six days or more of rest. The Mariners have yet to name a Wednesday starter, but Triple-A Tacoma right-hander Erasmo Ramirez appears to be a likely candidate. He has already started 13 times over four stints with Seattle this season. Twice over the past five weeks, he was recalled for spot starts and sent back to the minors immediately after. Ramirez's scheduled Tuesday start for Tacoma easily could be scratched to accommodate a start in Seattle the following afternoon.

•Boston Closer Uehara Not Getting Job Done Of Late: Koji Uehara is proving to be human after all. His success last season after he took over the closer's role for the Red Sox was a major reason Boston won the World Series. This year as the Red Sox continue to struggle and as they sit in last place in the American League East, recently Uehara has started to struggle also. In his past four games, he has allowed 10 hits and seven runs over 3 2/3 innings. He has blown saves in each of his past two appearances, including an epic five-run outing in which he allowed five ninth-inning runs in two-thirds of an inning in a 5-3 loss last Friday to the Seattle Mariners. That meant he had allowed runs in three consecutive games for the first time in his career as a reliever.

He did not allow a run in Monday's game but allowed all three of the runners he inherited from Clay Buchholz to score, two on a booming double by Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays' designated hitter. Uehara got the win when the Red Sox scored in the 10th to beat Toronto 4-3. He does not think the reason is fatigue. "I'm not making the pitches that I need to," he said. "It's nothing about fatigue. It's about my split. All I can say is that I'm not finishing the pitches as I want to." "Maybe not as consistent finish to his stuff, whether it's the life to his fastball or the depth to his split, more the later action to both pitches," manager John Farrell said about a pitcher he has leaned upon heavily. "When he's been on the plate, that's when he hasn't been able to get away with a pitch that's been slightly mis-located."

When asked if Uehara might be shut down. "Not at this point," Farrell said. "I think what we're being very conscious of is the frequency of the use. There's nothing physical that is a restriction for him. We check in with him every day, he goes through his normal throwing program. I wouldn't rule it out, but at this point, we haven't considered shutting him down." Farrell admitted fatigue could be a factor. "I'm sure that's part of it," he said. "There's no denying the number of appearances he's had over a very extended year last year and the number of appearances this year. We try to give him ample rest between outings but he's been in a little bit of a tough stretch of late."

•Cardinals C Molina Might Return This Week: Yadier Molina might be back in the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup by the end of week, much sooner than originally expected. The star catcher is scheduled to report to Double-A Springfield on Tuesday to work out with the farm club. If all goes well, he will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday night against Arkansas in a Texas League game. When Molina tore ligaments in his right thumb July 9 and had surgery two days later, it was expected that he would be out until mid-September. Instead, his rehab has gone without a hitch, and he could return to the Cardinals as soon as Friday night when they open a four-game home series against the Chicago Cubs.

"I hate to put timetables on injuries, but if he is medically cleared, then it's a possibility," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said of getting Molina by the weekend. "We have to make sure he feels comfortable swinging a bat and throwing before that decision can be made." Molina is hitting .287 with seven home runs in 87 games this season. He was selected to his sixth consecutive All-Star Game, though he was unable to play because of the injury. He has also won six National League Gold Gloves in a row. Veteran A.J. Pierzynski is doing the bulk of the catching with Molina sidelined. Signed by the Cardinals on July 26 after he was released 10 days earlier by the Boston Red Sox, Pierzynski is hitting .277 with one homer in 19 games with St. Louis.
____________________________________________

Betting Notes - Wednesday

National League
•Cardinals-Pirates - 12:35 PM
--Wainwright is 2-3, 6.03 in his last five starts.
--Locke is 3-0, 3.42 in his last four starts.

--Cardinals won nine of their last thirteen games.
--Pirates lost nine of their last thirteen games.

--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Wainwright starts.

•Nationals-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Fister is 2-1, 2.31 in his last four starts.
--Kendrick is 1-0, 7.71 in his last three starts.

--Nationals won 12 of their last 15 games, but lost last two.
--Phillies are 13-6 in their last nineteen home games.

--Last four Fister starts went over the total.

•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Teheran is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
--Wheeler is 5-0, 2.54 in his last ten starts.

--Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring five runs.
--Mets lost five of their last eight games.

--Five of last six New York games went over total.

•Cubs-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Wood is 0-5, 6,71 in his last nine starts.
--Cueto is 5-1, 2.45 in his last six starts.

--Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
--Cincinnati lost 11 of its last 14 games.

--Seven of last nine Chicago games stayed under; over is 8-4-1 in Cincinnati's last thirteen games.

•Brewers-Padres - 9:10 PM
--Gallardo is 3-2, 3.48 in his last five starts.
--Despaigne is 1-4, 7.04 in his last six starts.

--Brewers won seven of their last eleven games.
--San Diego lost six of its last nine games.

--Under is 7-1 in Gallardo's last eight road starts.

•Dodgers-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Kershaw is 4-1, 1.62 in his last six starts.
--Miley is 0-1, 2.29 in his last three starts.

--Dodgers won four of their last five games.
--Arizona lost eight of its last ten games.

--Eight of last eleven Dodger games went over the total.

•Rockies-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Morales is 0-3, 6.23 in his last five starts.
--Hudson is 1-3, 4.86 in his last six starts.

--Colorado won six of its last eight games.
--Giants lost three of last four games, are 11-24 in last 35 home games.

--Five of last six Morales road starts stayed under total.
___________________________________________

American League
•Rangers-Mariners - 3:40 PM
--Lewis is 0-3, 7.41 in his last three starts.
--Ramirez is 0-1 in his last six starts, despite a 1.15 RA (total of 31.1 IP).

--Rangers lost 13 of their last 19 road games.
--Seattle won 15 of its last 20 games.

--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Lewis starts.

•Rays-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Smyly is 2-1, 1.55 in four starts for Tampa Bay.
--Gausman is 1-2, 3.94 in his last three starts.

--Tampa Bay won four of its last six games.
--Orioles lost four of their last five games.

--Eight of last eleven Baltimore games stayed under.

•Yankees-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Greene is 1-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Price allowed two runs in 16 IP in splitting his last two starts.

--Yankees won five of its last six games.
--Detroit won seven of its last nine home games.

--Eight of last eleven New York games stayed under total.

•Red Sox-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Kelly is 0-1, 4.09 in his four starts for Boston.
--Stroman allowed 11 runs in 5.2 IP in losing his last two starts.

--Boston lost eight of its last ten games, but won last two.
--Toronto lost ten of its last thirteen games.

--Five of last seven Boston games went over total.

•Indians-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Kluber is 4-1, 1.32 in his last seven starts.
--Noesi is 2-2, 5.29 in his last five starts.

--Cleveland won ten of its last fourteen games.
--White Sox lost last seven games, allowing 41 runs.

--12 of last 14 Cleveland games stayed under total.

•Twins-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Hughes is 4-0, 1.32 in his last four starts.
--Hendriks was 1-0, 6.08 in three starts for Toronto earlier this spring; he was on the Twins from 2011-13, going 2-13 in 28 starts for them.

--Minnesota lost seven of its last ten games.
--Royals won 20 of their last 26 games.

--Seven of last ten Minnesota games went over total.

•Athletics-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Pomeranz was 0-2, 5.71 in his last three starts before punching chair on June 16 and breaking his non-throwing hand- this is his first start back.
--Peacock is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in three starts against Oakland this year.

--Oakland lost eight of last ten road games.
--Astros lost four of their last six games.

--Six of last seven Houston games stayed under total.

Interleague
•Marlins-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Alvarez is 4-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
--Santiago is 0-0, 1.59 in his last three starts; Angel bullpen is 1-5 in his last six starts.

--Miami is 10-7 in its last seventeen games.
--Angels won ten of their last fourteen games.

--13 of last 19 Angel games stayed under the total.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cleveland Indians Corey Kluber is 22-6 in his team starts (78.5%) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game, including a spot-less 12-0 ledger for the Indians in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Looking to continue his success at U.S. Cellular Field, Kluber tries to help Cleveland extend the White Sox's season-high skid to eight games Wednesday night.

The former 2009 fourth-round pick of the San Diego Padres allowed four runs and eight hits in six innings of a 7-4 home win over the White Sox on July 11, he improved to 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA against them this season. His first meeting of 2014 came April 13th, when he yielded two runs in 7 1/3 innings of a 4-3 loss at Chicago, where he is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three assignments. The right-hander was 6-0 with a 1.31 ERA in eight starts prior to allowing three runs and walking four in seven innings of a 4-1 loss at Minnesota on Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee won on Tuesday in MLB in the National League with the Padres -$122/Brewers.

E&B have a futures play in College Football for the ACC Costal Division winner North Carolina at 4-1.

For Wednesday in MLB in Interleague play "Mr Chalk" likes the Angels -$145/Marlins.

Ben lee is 1-0 +$50 for week forty four 196-224-5 -$2847

"Mr Chalk" is 68-50 -$380 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns


Boston vs. Toronto - August 27, 2014 - 7:07 PM
Pick: @ -139 Toronto
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Aug 27 - 7:07 PM
Reason For Pick:
9* Personal Favorite, Toronto Blue Jays


NY Yankees vs. Detroit - August 27, 2014 - 7:08 PM
Pick: @ -168 Detroit
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Aug 27 - 7:08 PM
Reason For Pick:
7* Blue Marlins, Detroit Tigers



Colorado vs. San Francisco - August 27, 2014 - 10:15 PM
Pick: @ Over 7 -117
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Aug 27 - 10:15 PM
Reason For Pick:
10* Blue Chip, OVER Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Yankees at Tigers

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (-172, 7.5)

David Price made a much-ballyhood change of address from Tampa Bay to Detroit at the trade deadline, but he will be facing a familiar foe when the Tigers host the New York Yankees on Wednesday night in the second of a three-game set. Price will oppose the Yankees for the fifth time this season, having posted a 1-1 record against them - including a no-decision in his Detroit debut on Aug. 5. The Tigers are 1 1/2 games out of first in the American League Central.

The Yankees had their five-game winning streak snapped with Tuesday's 5-2 defeat to drop 3 1/2 games behind Seattle for the second wild card and three back of Detroit. Jacoby Ellsbury, batting leadoff due to an injury to Brett Gardner, put up a week's worth of production in the past two games with six hits, three homers, five RBIs and four runs scored. Ellsbury, who reached 60 RBIs for the third time in his career, is 9-for-19 with four RBIs versus Price this season.

TV: 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Detroit.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as -168 home favorites and now sit at -172. The total is currently set at 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Yankees - 1B Mark Teixeira (Probable, hamstring), LF Brett Gardner (Questionable, ankle), SP Masahiro Tanaka (15-day DL, arm), SP David Phelps (15-day DL, elbow). Detroit - 1B Miguel Cabrera (Probable, ankle), Anibal Sanchez (Early Sept, pectoral), Joakim Soria (15-day DL, oblique).

POWER RANKINGS: Yankees (-157), Tigers (-173) .

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RHP Shane Green (3-1, 3.17 ERA) vs. Tigers LHP David Price (11-8, 3.11 ERA).

Greene turned in the best performance of his brief-major league career against the Tigers on Aug. 7, earning the victory with a season-high eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball. He followed that up with a pair of no-decisions, striking out 10 and permitting two runs over six innings at Tampa Bay and allowing three runs and nine hits over five innings versus the Chicago White Sox last time out. He is 2-0 with a 2.59 ERA away from home.

Price suffered a gut-wrenching 1-0 defeat against his former team on Thursday, allowing a first-inning RBI triple and nothing more before setting down the final 23 batters of a one-hit, nine-strikeout masterpiece. He is 1-1 with in four outings with the Tigers, the lone win coming when he gave up one run in eight innings to beat Seattle on Aug. 16. Yankees catcher Brian McCann has tormented Price this season, going 5-for-12 with three home runs.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Yankees are 1-5 in their last six meetings in Detroit.
* Tigers are 5-1 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-two percent of wagers are behind Price and the Tigers at -172.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Rays at Orioles

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Smyly (8-10, 3.42 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (7-5, 3.81 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles bounced back after getting swept by the Cubs, as Baltimore has taken the first two games of this set. Following a 9-1 rout in Monday’s opener, the Orioles held off the Rays on Tuesday, 4-2 as short favorites, as Baltimore has won five of the past eight meetings against Tampa Bay.

What to watch for: Tampa Bay owns an impressive 8-1 record in its last nine Game 3’s of a road series, as this series concludes on Thursday. In four starts since joining the Rays’ rotation, Drew Smyly has cashed the ‘under’ all four times, while not allowing a run in his last two road outings. The Orioles are a perfect 6-0 in Kevin Gausman’s six night starts this season, while the right-hander has split a pair of outings against Tampa Bay.

Yankees at Tigers

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Greene (3-1, 3.17 ERA)
DET: Price (12-9, 3.00 ERA)

Series recap: The Yankees saw their five-game winning streak disappear in Tuesday’s opener at Detroit in a 5-2 setback. New York played in its third different city in three days after winning a make-up game at Kansas City on Monday, while the Tigers improved to 2-3 this season against the Yankees.

What to watch for: The Tigers have compiled a 2-2 record in David Price’s four starts since coming over from the Rays, with one of those victories coming in the Bronx, 4-3 in extra innings. Detroit owns a 6-2 record in its last eight Game 2’s of a home series, while going 8-1 this season after winning the opener of a series at Comerica Park. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have won all four road starts made by Shane Greene, as the right-hander tossed eight shutout innings the last time he faced the Tigers in a 1-0 victory.

Braves at Mets

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Teheran (12-9, 2.96 ERA)
NYM: Wheeler (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets found a way to edge the Braves last night, 3-2 even without David Wright and David Murphy in the lineup. New York has won five of the past six home meetings against Atlanta, as the Mets cashed on Tuesday as +140 underdogs.

What to watch for: The Braves are 2-3 in Julio Teheran’s previous five road starts, which includes an 8-3 setback at Citi Field as -145 favorites in early July. Since July, the Mets have won seven of Zack Wheeler’s last nine starts, with the only two losses coming in walk-off fashion by one run each. Wheeler has seen plenty of success against the Braves at home in his short career, winning all three times, each in the underdog role.

Indians at White Sox

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Kluber (13-7, 2.46 ERA)
CHW: Noesi (7-9, 4.86 ERA)

Series recap: The White Sox dropped their seventh straight game after falling in extra innings to the Indians, 8-6 as -150 home favorites. Chicago erased an early 3-0 deficit by grabbing a 6-5 lead, but the Indians scored two runs in the top of the 10th inning to win their third consecutive contest.

What to watch for: For the first time since late June, Corey Kluber suffered a loss in his last start, a 4-1 defeat at Minnesota as a -135 road favorite. The Indians have dropped two of Kluber’s three outings against Chicago this season, as the right-hander struck out a career-high 13 in a 4-3 setback on May 4 in which the Cleveland bullpen allowed three runs in the ninth inning. Hector Noesi saw a four-game home winning streak in his starts snapped against Baltimore in his past trip to the mound, as the right-hander allowed six runs in a 7-4 defeat at Progressive Field in mid-July.

Brewers at Padres

Probable Pitchers:
MIL: Gallardo (8-7, 3.38 ERA)
SD: Despaigne (3-5, 3.44 ERA)

Series recap: The Brewers routed the Padres in Monday’s opener, 10-1 as -140 favorites, but followed that performance up with a clunker last night. San Diego cruised past Milwaukee, 4-1 as short favorites, as the Padres improved to 11-2 in their past 13 games at Petco Park.

What to watch for: Milwaukee has won each of Yovani Gallardo’s last three road starts, which includes victories as heavy dogs at Los Angeles (+170) and Tampa Bay (+155). Rookie Odrisamer Despaigne is coming off two rough road starts against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, but the Padres have won three of his five outings at Petco Park. Four of the five meetings between these teams have finished ‘under’ the total, while the Padres have scored three runs or less four times.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Cardinals -135
50* Blue Jays -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

MLB

3* (954) Phillies +$140
3* (978) Astros +$135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

PJ' TENNIS CORNER (+2.05)

ATP - US OPEN @ NEW YORK, U.S.A.
1105AM- F LOPEZ -150 vs I DODIG

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced sports investments

perry's soccer club (+1.60)

england - league cup
245pm- queens park rangers @ burton albion - under 2.5 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

(962) Arizona +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Kansas City -140 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)

Minnesota is 22-45 when playing on a Wednesday
Minnesota is 32-49 when playing in the month of August
Kansas City is 51-32 when playing in the month of August



10* Play Oakland -125 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston is 45-83 vs. left-handed starting pitchers
Houston is 27-43 when playing on a Wednesday
Houston is 44-93 when playing as a home underdog of +125 or higher

=============================================

5* Play NY Yankees +180 over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Miami +145 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL




Play Oakland -145 over Houston----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

8:00 PM EST

Houston has lost 83 of the last 128 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have lost 43 of the last 70 games when playing on a Wednesday. Houston has lost 93 of the last 137 games when playing as a home underdog of +125 or higher and they have lost 66 of the last 105 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.





Play Kansas City -140 over Minnesota---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
8:00 PM EST


Minnesota has lost 45 of the last 67 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 49 of the last 81 games when playing in the month of August. Kansas City has won 50 of the last 82 games when playing in the month of August and they have won 42 of the last 70 games when playing on a Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play LA Dodgers -175 over Arizona (TOP MLB)

Clayton Kershaw has won 15 of the last 18 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 8 of the last 9 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season.Clayton Kershaw has won 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents and he is 8-1 in road games this season with an ERA of 1.76.

================================================== ===

50* Play Cleveland -160 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play San Francisco -190 over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
2014-08-30 (3 days)


MLB Premium Picks

Top Pick


League
Date
Time (ET)
Matchup
Pick


MLB
Aug 27 ,2014
12:35p
[951] St. Louis Cardinals[952] Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals -120
at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)


5* NL Central Game of the Month on Cardinals -
St Louis has split the first two games of their 3-game set with division rival Pittsburgh and I look for them to finish off the series with a win behind their ace Adam Wainwright. There's no denying Wainwright hasn't been up to his standard of late, but I like his chances of snapping out of his funk. Wainwright is 4-1 with 0.80 ERA over his last 6 starts against Pittsburgh. Andrew McCutchen is the one Pirate that's hit Wainwright well and there's a good chance he won't play after leaving yesterday's contest early with discomfort in his ribs.
Pittsburgh will counter with Jeff Locke, who allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits over 6 innings of work in his last start against the Brewers. However, there's two concerning things with that start that leave me to believe he could be in for a rough outing. Locke didn't record a single strike out and walked a season-worst 6 batters.
Locke is 7-15 in his last 22 starts in the second half against NL teams who are scoring 4.3 or less runs/game and 1-4 in his last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is also 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and 0-4 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St Louis is 36-16 in Wainwright's last 52 starts during game 3 of a series, 22-8 in his last 30 against a division opponent and 8-2 in his last 10 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. These trends combine to form a 73% (93-35) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take St Louis!





League
Date
Time (ET)
Matchup
Pick


MLB
Aug 27 ,2014
7:05p
[967] Tampa Bay Rays[968] Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays +105
at Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com)


3* Rays/Orioles AL East Main Event on Rays +
The Rays are showing great value as a small road dog on Wednesday. Tampa Bay will send out starter Drew Smyly, who has a dominant 0.76 ERA and 0.549 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Smyly's last outing was a complete game shutout at Toronto. In his only career start against the Orioles earlier this season, Smyly held Baltimore to just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 innings of a 4-1 win. The Orioles will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has a not so impressive 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP over 7 home starts. Gausman also has an ugly 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 21-8 in their last 29 road games, 14-5 in their last 19 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 12-4 in their last 16 road games in the second half against AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game. These trends combine to form a 73 % (47-17) system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

St. Louis @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH +114 over St. Louis

12:35 PM EST. Adam Wainwright was whacked in the All-Star game and since then his 30% line-drive rate is the highest mark in the majors among pitchers with six or more starts. Wainwright's strikeout rate is also trending the wrong way. Over his last 39 frames, he's only whiffed 26 batters while walking 13. That's supported by a low 6% swing and miss rate over his last six starts in which he's posted a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In fact, all of Wainwright's skills have been nothing more than mediocre since the All-Star game but his overall ERA of 2.52 has this labouring pitcher well overpriced. Wainwright's xERA since the break is sitting at 5.17, which is 2½ runs higher than his actual ERA. Furthermore, current Pirates have 63 hits (7 jacks) in 221 career AB's against Wainwright for a combined BA of .285. Adam Wainwright may be the most overvalued starter in the league right now and absolutely does not warrant this billing in Pittsburgh.

Jeff Locke emerged from seemingly nowhere last year, making the NL All-Star team and helping the Bucs to the post season. But his second-half ERA was over 5.00 compared with a 2.06 in the first half, leading to the conclusion his early success was a fluke. Yet, he's at least holding his own after an oblique injury shelved him early in 2014. Unlike the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde show last year, Locke has pitched true to his skills this season: His control has been elite and he's walking about one-third of the hitters per game as he did a year ago. Locke doesn't miss a lot of bats, but he's maintained a good command rate thanks to his pinpoint control. Pitching to contact is more his game and it's working with his nice 51% groundball tilt. In his last start, Locke went into Milwaukee and two-hit the Brewers in 6 innings. In 15 starts, he has lost just three games. Still only 25, Locke isn't the power arm that will seize headlines, and pitching in Pittsburgh keeps him further under the radar. The control gains are of such magnitude and beyond even his best seasons in the minor leagues, so it warrants skepticism. But even if his walks rise a little and Locke lacks the prospect status and upside of other names, he at least merits some consideration as a dog in his own barn and that's precisely how we'll proceed, even with Andrew McCutcheon likely sitting this one out.

NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted.

Our Pick
PITTSBURGH +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta

It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013—his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings. This year with 4½ weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.

Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently. The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.

NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted.

Our Pick:
NY Mets +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Washington Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HOT CHICKS PICKS / Brtiney DeLuca

Take PITTSBURGH +120 to chase the red birds away!

Take BALTIMORE -115 to avoid the sting of the rays!

Take BOSTON +130 to have a tea party north of the border today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Finest:

Prez: Pirates, 2 Units
Prez: Mariners, F5 O 4
CoverzNuggz: Pirates, 2 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
6* Reds -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman Mlb 8/27
3* Under 8 Miami/LAA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Mlb 8/27
3* Tampa Bay +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

DODGERS -1.5 -125 *4* BEST BET

Kershaw against the Diamondbacks, what is not to love here? The Dodgers are an incredible 41-26 away from LA while the Diamondbacks are a lousy 27-41 at home this season. The Dodgers are 17-4 in games Kershaw starts this season. LA is also red hot having won 5 of 7 with 4 of those wins coming by 2+ runs. The Diamondbacks have dropped 8 of their last 10. Miley owns a 6.20 ERA at home on the season and is 0-3 against these Dodgers on the year (all home starts) losing 7-0, 8-5, and 3-1.

RED SOX ML +123 *3*

The Blue Jays are a disaster and Marcus Stroman has hit a wall. Plenty of reason here to like Boston at big plus money. The Red Sox have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-10. Stroman or the Jays has allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his past 4 starts. Joe Kelly had one rough start since coming over from St. Louis but otherwise has had outings of 0, 2, and 1 inning.

ML PARLAY (INDIANS + DODGERS + NATIONALS) +269 *2*

Looking to cash a joint parlay here – and it’s a big one!

The Indians have Kluber on the mound who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Kluber owns a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.46 ERA, strong numbers. Noesi for the White Sox has struggled this season with a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 4.86 – including a home ERA of 5! Chicago has dropped 7 straight contests with 5 of those losses coming by 2+ runs.

Doug Fister has been the Ace this year for the Nationals owning a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.38 ERA. Washington is 14-5 in games Fister starts and have won 7 of their past 10 baseball games. Kendrick for the Phillies has been getting torched of late (1.78 WHIP, 6.61 ERA L3 Starts) and has struggled all season (1.38 WHIP, 4.93 ERA).

TIGERS -1 -130 *3*

Coming off an easy win Tuesday with Porcello on the mound, we see another similar result lining up here tonight with David Price toeing the rubber. Since being traded to Detroit Price has allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs while striking out 32 over 30.2 innings for a 1-1 record and a 2.35 ERA. He would be 2-0 had he not lost his last outing in which he tossed a complete game 1 hit gem. Yankees counter with Shane Greene who has been solid this season but does not hold the pedigree of Price, especially with this being a home game for the Tigers. Detroit is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

CARDINALS ML -119 *2*

Wainwright becomes the first 16 game winner in the MLB today. The Cards are 18-8 when Wainwright takes the mound this year. The Cards have won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Pirates and Wainwright shut out the Pirates last time he faced them. He has also had better road numbers than home numbers this year.

CUBS ML +155 *1*

The Reds are playing terrible baseball – and until they prove otherwise we are going to ride huge plus money against them. They should not be -165 against any team in the bigs right now. Additionally the Cubs have won 4 straight and 7 of 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under Umpire Streaker

12:35pm ET game

#951 UN 7.5 -115 STL/PIT 1.15u/1.00u
Randazzo 2ov/12un L14gms 85.7%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo
2*-atlanta-130..
2*-miw-140.....
1*-cards-120....
1*-reds-160.....
1*-tigers-170.....
1* oakland-1.5-105.....
1*-sf-1.5+100.....
1*-over-7-milw-sd....
1*-under-7.5-minn-kc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

getmybet
League: ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match: Birmingham vs Sunderland
Tips: Both Team to Score

goforwinners
League: ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match : Birmingham vs Sunderland
Tips : Both Teams to Score

MyPerfectBets
League : EUROPE: Champions League
Match : Ludogorets vs Steaua Bucuresti
Tips : Over 2

BET4WINS
League : EUROPE: Champions League
Match : Ludogorets vs Steaua Bucuresti
Tips : Under 2.5

macaukingtips
League : Uefa CL Qualifiers
Match : Athletic Bilbao vs Napoli
Tips : Napoli +0.25

BUYFOOTBALLTIPS
League : ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match : Bradford vs Leeds
Tips : Over 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Time: Wednesday 08/27 9:10 PM Eastern
Pick: San Diego +130 (moneyline) at 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the season at 20-7, and it was a big enough start to the season to allow their pedestrian play since to hold a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central. Since the big start, the Brewers have played just three games over the .500 mark. San Diego evened the series at one game each, and the Padres have been living large at home of late where they are 16-5 in their last 21 here. Yovani Gallardo gave up six runs in his last outing, and is 8-7 on the season. This is a very soft spot for Gallardo and the Brew Crew as they are 2-8 in his last 10 starts to a posted total of 7 to 8.5. Milwaukee has also lost his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and they are just 7-15 in his last 22 starts following a game where they scored 2 or fewer. Play on San Diego.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

small college play

Ga St -4

[golden contender]

Hump day card led by the 5* MLB Road Warrior play with 2 Perfect 100% Angles. There is also a 39-2 Blowout system MLB Top sides went 2-0 on Monday. Free MLB Live dog play below.


On Hump day the free MLB live Dog is on the NY. Mets. Game 956 at 7:10 eastern. The Mets fit a nice dog system here that pertains to home dogs off a home dog win by 1 run. A role the Mets are 4-0 themselves in this year. The Mets have Z. Wheeler going an he has been hot in the second half and has some of the best numbers you ill find. he has won his last 4 home starts and all 3 home vs Atlanta. Teheran for the Braves allowed 5 runs in 3 innings and 11 hit here earlier in the seasons and the Braves have lost 20 of 30 on the road when the total is 7 or less. Look for the Mets to take another from the Braves. On Hump day we have Another Powerful MLB Card with a 5* Double Perfect Road warrior play. There is also a 39-2 Blowout system going. We will also release the Thursday NFLX Power system card in the evening. Both top MLB Sides cashed on Monday. Jump on Now and Bang your book good on Hump day. For the free play take the NY. Mets. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Kershaw a trend buster

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league games:
Low Balling

The under proved to be a strong play in Tuesday’s action, going 4-10-1 on a night buoyed by shutouts from the Chicago Cubs (+158), San Francisco Giants (-235) and Seattle Mariners (-203). More than 55 percent of games have gone under in the past seven days.

Kershaw a Trend Buster

Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw looks to continue bucking his team’s recent trend as he leads visiting Los Angeles (-218, 7) into Arizona Wednesday. The Dodgers are 0-3 over/under in Kershaw’s last three starts, but are 9-3 O/U in all other games during that stretch.

Marquee Matchup

AL West powers meet Thursday night as the Los Angeles Angels open a four-game series with the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has an 8-4 straight up advantage in the head-to-head series so far in 2014, with the teams combining to go 7-4-1 O/U in that span.

Pitching Notes

* New York Mets righty Zach Wheeler has been as dependable as they come heading into Wednesday’s encounter with the visiting Atlanta Braves (-122, 6.5). Wheeler has has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts, while going at least six innings all but once in that span.

* New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is on an under roll as he prepares to face the host Detroit Tigers on Thursday night. Kuroda is 0-5 O/U in his last five starts, though the Yankees are just 2-3 over that span – including two losses as favorites.

Hitting Notes

* Watch out for New York Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who is batting .444 with three homers, seven RBIs and three stolen bases over his last seven days. Ellsbury will likely take his regular spot at the top of the lineup for Wednesday’s game versus the Tigers (-173, 7.5)

* Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones will look to exploit a favorable matchup Thursday as the Orioles face the Tampa Bay Rays. Jones is batting .333 with four homers in 42 career at-bats against Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson.

Totals Streak

Houston Astros (1-6 O/U): The Astros have seen their share of solid pitching performances during a 3-4 stretch, allowing just five combined runs in the wins while scoring a paltry five runs in the losses. Houston is 63-67-3 O/U for the season entering Wednesday’s game against visiting Oakland (-160, 8.5).

Prop of the Day

Feeling brave? Take a shot on the host Diamondbacks defeating Kershaw and the Dodgers by more than two runs, a prop that pays a whopping +800. Kershaw’s worst start of the season came at Chase Field back on May 17, when he allowed seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings.

Injury Notes

* New York Mets third baseman David Wright told reporters Tuesday his shoulder isn’t 100 percent, a development that has contributed to his recent slump at the plate. Wright has missed nine games this season, with the Mets going 3-6 SU, 4-5 O/U and -172 units in those contests.

* Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa left Tuesday’s start against the San Francisco Giants with a left thumb contusion, and is questionable to make his next start. Colorado went on to lose the game 3-0, dropping to 0-5 SU in De La Rosa’s last five road starts.

Weather Watch

* Wind at PNC Park will blow out to center field at 7 mph for Wednesday’s game between the host Pittsburgh Pirates (+112, 7.5) and the St. Louis Cardinals. Teams averaged 1.58 home runs under similar conditions in 2013 – well above stadium averages – but batted just .229.

Umpire Note of the Day

Seattle is just 1-11 in its last 12 games with umpire Tim Timmons behind home plate. Timmons will call the balls and strikes Wednesday when the Mariners (-170, 7.5) entertain the Texas Rangers.

** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 11:10 a.m. ET Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DIY SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS / Sam Oconnel

Minnesota Twins +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE ROSE

NY Mets ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Wednesday Night MLB Team Total

KANSAS CITY ROYALS – UNDER 4 RUNS (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTi Sports

Marlins / Angels Under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8* St. Louis -123
8* Washington -156

Underdog Play of the Week
Colorado +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Atlanta -125
LA Angels -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

MIAMI MARLINS +130
(Alvarez/Santiago)

Miami is looking to get to .500 baseball, they have a great pitcher on the mound, have been hitting left handers well and have been hitting the ball in general very well as of late. This is a great spot for a nice underdog play. Take Miami.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- We've got three of the top-7 earners in baseball starting games tonight. No, not earners salary-wise, but earners who have produced the most return-on-investment for bettors. All three look like good candidates to win tonight, but only two of them are playable as the best pitcher in the game is once again out of our price range.

That best pitcher of course is Clayton Kershaw (15-2, 1.82 ERA), who the Dodgers have gone 17-4 behind this season, but because his price is usually -190 or above, his losses have been magnified to the point it takes two wins with him to make up for one loss. Still, he comes at No. 7 on the list of most profitable starters at +9.8 units.

The Dodgers have won 14 of his last 15 starts, but along with the high -220 price on the road at Arizona, there might be one more reason to be cautious with Kershaw today. His worst outing of the season came on May 17 at Arizona when he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up seven earned runs. It's his only start this season that he's given up more than three runs.

Kershaw is long removed from that stretch, which was only his third start after missing the entire month of April, but it's enough of a scare tactic to really hold the brakes with a betting strategy that involves the Dodgers tonight.

For those run-line players who couldn't care less what the game price is on great pitchers because of getting a good price laying -1.5 runs, consider that in his only start against Arizona since they roughed him up, the Dodgers won 4-3 at Dodger Stadium on June 13. He's also been involved in four one-run games over his last five starts coming in. If looking at Arizona +1.5 tonight, the South Point will give you +110.

Hughes and Alvarez Offer Great Plus-Money Tonight

The top earner in baseball has been Minnesota's Phil Hughes (14-8, 3.65) with +11.7 units of profit if wagering on him in every start. The Twins have gone 17-9 behind him this season, but because he doesn't have the metrics as some of the top pitchers and his team already has one of the lowest team ratings, he rarely finds himself as the favorite which has allowed him to pile up plus-money wins all season.

Hughes has been an underdog in nine of his last 11 outings and he comes in on this stretch of the season where he's won his last four starts allowing only one earned run in each. In his last three starts, he's taken down some very good teams, like beating Corey Kluber and Cleveland on Thursday, beating the red-hot Royals on Aug. 16 and then knocking off the A's on Aug. 10. Between those three starts, bettors took home +395 in profits if siding with Hughes.

Hughes' plight is so bad on paper that he's not even favored against Liam Hendricks tonight in Kansas City. Hendricks hasn't pitched in the majors since June 20 and has started 23 Triple-A games (12-2, 2.45) between Buffalo and Omaha, and yet he still comes in as a -115 favorite over Hughes.

Over in Anaheim tonight we have a similar situation where the team rating for the Angels far exceeds what the Marlins have to offer despite a lopsided pitching match-up. On one side we have Hector Santiago, who the Angels have lost four straight behind, as a -145 favorite over Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57), who comes in tied for second as the most profitable starter in baseball at +11.2 units.

All Alvarez does is win. He's won his last four starts and the Marlins have won 14 of his last 16 starts. The beautiful thing about him is that he's been either pick 'em or an underdog in 12 of those last 16 starts. The Angels have a lineup that can make any good pitcher look bad, but with a four-game series starting tomorrow against the A's, the Marlins might be able to catch the Angels in a vulnerable moment. Alvarez has huge value tonight.

Is Wainwright Alright?

What's going on with Adam Wainwright? Before the All-Star break he had an ERA of 1.76. Since then he's gone 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA, allowing three runs or more in five of his seven starts, something he did only twice over his first 18 starts. He comes in as a -120 favorite at Pittsburgh in this afternoon's rubber match, a number that started at -130 in the overnight line.

Despite the Cardinals alternating wins and losses in each of his last seven starts and his higher-than-normal walk rate (3.48 walks per nine innings), he's still going for an NL-leading 16th win of the season and the Pirates have been a team he seems to have figured out. He hasn't allowed a run to them in his last two starts this season and is 4-1 with a 0.80 ERA in his last six starts overall against them, including the postseason.

Last season we kind of saw Wainwright go into a late August funk by allowing 16 runs over a two start stretch and in his next outing he faced Pittsburgh and beat them 5-0. The Cardinals aren't doing anything special at the plate lately, but Wainwright is cheaper than we've seen him since being -125 at Milwaukee in early July, so he looks like a decent play today and the Pirates seem to be his get-well tonic.

Wednesday selections:

Cardinals (Wainwright) -120 at Pirates

Twins (Hughes) +105 at Kansas City

Marlins (Alvarez) +135 at Angels

Padres (Despaigne) +130 vs. Brewers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 0-10 since September 14, 2011 as a home dog when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 11-0 since May 20, 2013 on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches at home last start for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Braves are 1-8 (+$851) since 2010 after a game where they stuck out two or fewer times.

CHOICE TREND:

The Athletics are 0-8 since July 30, 2014 when it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1128 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 13-2 since September 08, 2011 after facing 25 or fewer hitters last start for a net profit of $1033.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Michaels

75 DIME
MLB Play of the Season
Run Line Dog of the Year
Detroit Tigers Run Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al DeMarco

15 DIME
ROAD WARRIOR
LA Dodgers Run Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Cincinnati Reds -156 over the Chicago Cubs (Bet Level 3) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:10 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Winning Crew

MLB 50 Dime Play - Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cory Kluge -- Arizona Diamondbacks + 210

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Wednesday 8/27 Service Plays


If we could have only hit one more of our plays it would have been a huge pay day for us!! A winning day is a winning day though so we shouldn't be disappointed. Let's make this the HUGE day we were looking for yesterday!!! 4-1 or 5-0 is what we are after!!! Let's do this today!!


MLB


Atlanta RL -1.5 +135


Washington RL -1.5 +110


LA Dodgers RL -1.5 -120


Milwaukee RL -1.5 +125


San Francisco RL -1.5 Even

[Can'tPickAWinner]

pure lock

top play chicago white sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Milwaukee Under 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes | MLB Total

MLB Pick #1: 965 Texas Rangers @ 966 Seattle Mariners
(Starting Pitchers: C. Lewis vs. E. Ramirez)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127)

My fair line for this contest is 8-runs so we are getting some value in my opinion w/ OVER @ plus money. This series has been a low scoring one w/ the first 2 games going bellow the total posted, but I think that both offenses will have some edge vs. SP's in this matchup.

TEX SP's Colby Lewis has been ultra inconsistent lately w/ some high pitch count numbers on his L3 starts. His problems vs. LH batters this season are well noticed as he is allowing LH bats to have .352 BA + .406 wOBA against him! Now, here's SEA lineup for today:



1. Austin Jackson (R) CF

2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF

3. Robinson Cano (L) DH

4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B

5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

6. Mike Zunino (R) C

7. Logan Morrison (L) RF

8. Chris Taylor (R) SS

9. Brad Miller (L) 2B



6 LH batters on the lineup! This SEA lineup is a bad matchup for him and no wonder, Lewis had some problems vs. SEA on his 3 starts against them this season by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER's!

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound and he is basically just filling a spot for them to give some rest to SEA's elite SP's. Ramirez' numbers in this season aren't that good w/ 4.06 ERA, 5.15 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! TEX struggled in the first 2 games of the series because they have faced 2 young LHP's who are pitching well lately in Elias and Paxton. The same cannot be said about Ramirez and therefore, I also expect them to put some runs in the scoreboard in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LineCatchers

The Orioles were swept at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend and have recovered by taking the first two games of this series against the Rays, but in my view, tonights matchup is very favourable for Tampa Bay, especially on the mound.

Drew Smyly gets the nod for the Rays and has been solid since joining the Tampa rotation after the David price trade to Detroit, Smyly has gone 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over four starts and has struck out 23 batters. In his last 2 road outings, Smyly has pitched 16 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball and allowed just 3 walks to 13 punch outs. The lefty has faced the Orioles once this campaign, allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Kevin Gausman will toe the slab for Baltimore who will be looking to take a 3-0 lead in this 4 game series tonight. Gausman has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 trips to the mound and has issued 11 walks in that span. In 7 home starts, Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The righty has faced the Rays 3 times in is career, going 1-2 with a lofty 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, 2 of those starts were in 2014. The Rays collectively have a combined .286 BA against Gausman to go with a .375 OBP this year.

The Rays are an impressive 8-1 in their last nine Game 3’s of a road series, I look for them to make to 9-1 tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays + 105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHAKER’S SHORTS

#968 Tampa Rays/Baltimore Orioles – UNDER 4.5 -115 – 1st 5 Innings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

1* Mets

1* Rays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

Welcome to the first installment of “Wise Guy Wednesday”, a new feature that should prove interesting to follow throughout the coming football season. Each Wednesday, I’ll be running through the college and NFL schedule with a rundown of games that are drawing pro action, thus the “wise guy” title.

A few important notes before glancing at this week’s slate. First off, these are not necessarily plays I’m on myself. I really don’t care what anyone else is playing, be they a pro or a Joe. But like many bettors, I at least like to know where the supposed sharper dollars are going. This can be of substantial value in determining when to play. I might be strictly playing just my own opinions, but the idea is to try and get the optimum number, and being able to garner a good idea of where the betting line on a game is likely to go will undoubtedly pay dividends over the course of a full season.

As to how this information is obtained, I can tell you it’s not based on bet percentages that can be found at various websites. Not that there’s anything wrong with that info, but there are times when it can be misleading even though it’s factual. I prefer to rely on what I’ll simply call excellent sources on both sides of the window here in Las Vegas, from faraway places, and from contacts at key locations back east.

Enough with the preliminaries. Let’s get to the games. I’ll be including the scheduling rotation numbers with these games so they’ll be easy to locate.

#136 UL Monroe drew some sharp early play, but now it’s a major case of follow the leader. One of my contacts said that “everyone and their uncle” is playing the Warhawks at this point, and this is the biggest mover of the week. I would expect some Wake Forest buy back at some point as those who scored UL-Monroe at the early price will be unable to resist a huge middling opportunity.

#141 Temple is a sharp side. The Owls were hit hard by pros a couple days ago, and the sheep are now firing away as well, driving the spread through a key number in the process. My info is that this line will continue to drop.

#151 UTSA is sharp vs. square with the pros grabbing the points. As this will be a later start on Friday, public dollars could push the line back up a bit when it gets close to post time.

#153 UNLV is getting a little support from the pros, while favored Arizona is preferred by the other side, although it’s not overwhelming either way.

#164 UAB took some serious action on Tuesday. I’ll be candid, I’m pretty good at knowing where lines will go before they actually do so, but this one caught me by surprise.

$169 Florida Atlantic is a clear pro/Joe battleground, with, according to two of my contacts, “all” of the sharper bucks on the underdog.

#187 Western Michigan is getting some sharp play, but not as much as the line drop might indicate. Apparently, it’s more a case of scant action, but what exists is more on the dog.

#205 Utah State is drawing some good play, prompting a “$%^&* Tennessee” response from one of my contacts. Bookies have very good memories, and fading the Vols was good for the bettors and bad for the accountants last season, especially down the stretch. So I wasn’t surprised to hear a bit of profanity when assessing the action on this game.

#210 Louisville is getting the sharper early dollars and note that this line has gone through a key number. The opinions offered seemed to indicate it’s more likely to continue ascending as we get closer to post time.

That’s it for the first edition of “Wise Guy Wednesday.” Back with more next week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire Streakers

#955 UN 6.5 -105 ATL/NYM 1.05u/1.00u
Muchlinski 8ov/15un L23gms 65.2%

#967 UN 8 -105 TB/BAL 1.05u/1.00u
Barry 7ov/15un L22gms 68.2%

#971 UN 8.5 -110 BOS/TOR 1.10u/1.00u
Guccione 9ov/14un L23gms 60.9%

#959 UN 7 -110 MIL/SD 1.10u/1.00u
Ripperger 10ov/15un L25gms 60.0%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

960 SD PADRES under 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE CAPTAIN (NCAAF)

2 Unit Abilene Christian +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Locksmith Sports

2* - Oakland -156

2* - Tampa Bay +101

2* - New York Mets +114

3* - Tampa Bay/Baltimore Under 8 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Pick Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8, -105 (2 units)

Tampa Bay Rays +100 (EVEN MONEY) (2 units)

Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9, -105 (2 units)

Minnesota Twins +100 (EVEN MONEY) (2 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Finest:

Prez: Yankees +1.5 RL, -140, 2 units
Prez: Rays ML, 2 units
Prez: Rockies F5, RL +.5, 2 units
Nuggz: Yankees +1.5 RL, -140, 2 units
Nuggz: Yankees, ML +160, 2 units
Nuggz, Rays, ML, 2 units
Nuggz, Mets +115, 2 units
Nuggz: Cubs +160, ML, 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sammy P

20* under 7.5 Det/Yanks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs Sports Investors Plays

System A
Tampa Bay ML


System B
Colorado/San Fran ov7


System C
Oakland/Houston ov8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

#960: Padres: +130 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Gallardo/Despaigne

#969/970: Yankees/Tigers: Over 7.5 (+105) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Greene/Price

#971/972: Red Sox/Blue Jays: Over 8.5 (+110) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Kelly/Stroman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

Washington/ Philadelphia OVER 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Baltimore
Pittsburg
Boston
Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday August 27, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

You really shouldn’t have been backing the wretched Texas Rangers regardless, but now don’t even think about it the rest of the season. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is being shut down for the season, and while he’s been a disappointment, he’s still was one of the team’s best healthy players left. In addition, ace Yu Darvish also likely will be shelved. I’d be somewhat surprised if Texas wins a single series from here on out. I do think the Rangers will be back in 2015, however. Here’s a look at five interesting games on Wednesday’s schedule.

Cardinals at Pirates (+108, 7.5)

This is a getaway day game, so you could see a few starters take a seat, although both St. Louis and Pittsburgh are off Thursday. I know Andrew McCutchen is still less than 100 percent, but the Pirates can’t really afford to bench him. Normally you favor a low-scoring game in one of these scenarios regardless, and that certainly looks to be the case with the pitching matchup. Ace Adam Wainwright (15-8, 2.52) goes for the Cards. He actually has been a bit off with a 5.29 ERA this month, although that’s somewhat stilted because of a seven-run outing Aug. 1 vs. Milwaukee. Wainwright has dominated Pittsburgh this season with a 0.82 ERA in three starts, although he’s only 1-1. McCutchen is a career .333 hitter with a homer and five doubles in 38 at-bats off him. Neil Walker hits .308 with a homer and seven RBIs. Pittsburgh lefty Jeff Locke (5-3, 3.69) hasn’t lost in his past four starts. Locke hasn’t faced St. Louis in 2014. Matt Holliday is 4-for-8 career off him with three RBIs.

Key trends: St. Louis is 5-1 in Wainwright’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 6-0 in Locke’s past six at home. St. Louis is 6-1 in Wainwright’s past seven vs. Pittsburgh.

Early lean: I would have gone “under” 6.5, so most certainly will at 7.5.


Cubs at Reds (TBA)

It’s actually starting to get exciting to be a Cubs backer, and you really couldn’t say that for a few years. Top prospect Javier Baez has been up for a few weeks, and while he strikes out too much he has shown tape measure power. Now another of the Cubs’ “Core Four” will debut on Wednesday in outfielder Jorge Soler. He hit .338 with 15 homers and 54 RBIs over 61 games in three levels of the minors this year. His only problem has been staying healthy. Soler will face off first against Reds right-hander Mat Latos (4-3, 2.99). The Reds have lost his past three although he has avoided a decision in them. He beat the Cubs on June 25, allowing a run over seven innings. Anthony Rizzo is just 2-for-15 off him. Jacob Turner (4-7, 5.77), a reclamation project whom the Cubs picked up from the Marlins, makes his first start with Chicago. He was formerly a top prospect for Detroit (traded to Marlins in Anibal Sanchez deal). Turner’s last game with Miami he allowed five runs and nine hits in four innings against the Reds.

Key trends: The Cubs are 1-5 in their past six Wednesday games. The Reds are 3-9 in their past 12 against right-handers.

Early lean: This is TBA because Turner hasn’t officially been announced, but he’s going. The Reds figure to open around -170 with a total of 8. Latos seems to always handle the Cubs, so take Cincy on the runline.


Rays at Orioles (-120, 8)

Tampa Bay got skewered nationally for getting so little in trade for ace David Price, but if we have learned anything the past several years it has been to trust the Rays front office. Arguably the biggest piece they got back was young Tigers lefty pitcher Drew Smyly. He has been excellent in four starts with the Rays, posting a 1.55 ERA. Last time out he threw a complete-game two-hitter in Toronto. Smyly has pitched twice against the Orioles in 2014, once in relief, and has a 1-0 record and 1.00 ERA in nine innings. Adam Jones is 2-for-6 with a solo homer off him. Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.81) is 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA for the O’s this month. He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season. Ben Zobrist is 5-for-9 with two doubles and two RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Orioles are 5-1 in their past six against lefties. They are 5-1 in Gausman’s past six against the AL East. The under is 8-1 in Baltimore’s past nine in Game 3 of a series.

Early lean: Under at -110.


Marlins at Angels (-144, 8)

Do you realize how historically good that Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton has been at such a young age? On Monday night he hit career homer No. 150, becoming just the 12th player in history with at least that many in his age-24 season. No. 1 is Eddie Mathews, who had 190 dingers. Stanton obviously won’t reach that number this year, but he could catch No. 8 Albert Pujols, who had 150 through his age-24 season. I could definitely see Stanton going yard on Wednesday off Halos lefty Hector Santiago (3-7, 3.38). He has allowed 10 homers in 101.1 innings. The Angels have lost his past four outings, but Santiago has pitched well. Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57) goes for Miami. The Fish have won his past four starts, but his road ERA is nearly 2.5 points higher (3.82) than at home. Only a few Angels have faced him. Mike Trout is 0-for-7 with three strikeouts.

Key trends: Miami is 6-1 in its past seven road games vs. lefties. They are 7-1 in Alvarez’s past eight on the road despite his much higher ERA there. L.A. is 1-6 in Santiago’s past seven Game 3s of a series. The under is 9-1-1 in Miami’s past 11 interleague games vs. left-handed starters.

Early lean: This is a trap game in some ways as L.A. has a huge series starting Thursday with Oakland. I’d take a flier on Miami.


A’s at Astros (+140, 8.5)

The A’s and Angels open another huge series Thursday night in Anaheim, so Oakland wants to have its top four starters of Sonny Gray, Jon Lester, Scott Kazmir and Jeff Samardzija available for that series. Thus, it will give lefty Drew Pomeranz (5-4, 2.91) a spot start in Wednesday’s series finale in Houston. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-June. He threw two innings of scoreless relief vs. the Astros earlier this year. Houston goes with Brad Peacock (3-8, 5.30). His last win was July 8. The A’s have crushed him this year as Peacock is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in two starts. Josh Donaldson and Coco Crisp both hit better than three .300 off him with a homer apiece.

Key trends: Oakland is 1-6 in his past seven Game 3s of a series. Houston is 1-4 in Peacock’s past five at home. Houston is 1-5 in Peacock’s past six vs. Oakland.

Early lean: Over at -110. Both starters are capable of giving up eight runs themselves. Houston might be a good play with the A’s also looking ahead to the Angels series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher

#1: Toronto Blue Jays -139

Stroman is my 30th ranked starter who has a strong 3.3 K/BB rate, 0.5 HR/9, and 3.0/3.4/3.5 FxS. He has struggled lately but that’s partly due to an inflated .373 BABIP and a very low 57% strand-rate over the last 30-days. His 3.3 FIP during this time is much lower than his 6.6 ERA, indicating a pitcher who continues to pitch well just isn’t getting the ‘results’ right now. Well, he’ll be facing a Boston team which he’s dominated twice already this year. In those 2 outings (back to back at the end of July), Stroman allowed 1 ER, 7 hits, and had a 15 K to 4 BB rate in 14 innings of work. That’s as dominant as it gets. His counter-part is Joe Kelly, who on the surface has pitched ‘well’ since coming over from STL. In 3 of his 4 starts, Kelly has allowed 3 total ER’s in 16 innings of work. Of course his 16 BB’s while only 14 K in 22 innings in the American League, indicate a pitcher that is struggling. Besides, he’s faced the weak lineups of STL, CIN, and SEA in those 3 ‘decent’ starts of his. Today, he’ll be going up against an offense that ranks 3rd overall against right-handers and crushes fastballs and curveballs, Kelly’s two top pitches. Over the last 30-days, Kelly’s 4.7 ERA is lower than Stroman’s, but his 5.2 FIP is almost 2 runs higher. His 15% BB% and 1.0 HR/9 rates have also been very high, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked once again the way he did against the Astros on 08/17. Even after 2 wins in Toronto, Boston is still only 5-10 on the season against the Jays, and they’re 21-33 against the division. I like Toronto’s chances today behind Stroman, and expect the Jays to avoid the sweep tonight.



#2: Minnesota Twins +110

If Madison Bumgarner, Matt Shoemaker, Jordan Zimmermann, or Cole Hamels were pitching tonight for the Twins, what do you think their price would be? Well, Hughes is on the same level as all of them this season but he continues to be disrespected by the Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s. In the last-30 days, Hughes has been even better, pitching like the 11th best pitcher with a pERA (projected) of 2.7, which is the same mark as Felix Hernandez over this time-frame. The reason he’s being disrespected is because he’s facing Liam Hendriks, one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. In 13 limited innings for the Jays this year his 6.1 ERA matched his career mark, and he was promptly shipped to the minors, ending up with the Royals in the beginning of August. Here are some career stats for Hendriks:

LH: 169 career inninings, 3 – 13 record, 2.1 K/BB, 1.8 HR/9, 16.1 ERA, 5.4 FIP, 4.9 SIERA, 6.7% SwStr%

In addition, Hendriks depends on his 90-MPH fastball which is a pretty ineffective pitch, because his secondary offerings are pretty poor. Well, Twins rank 2nd in the league this year offensively against the ‘fastball’, trailing only the Orioles. Twins are 27-29 for +4.7 Units against their divisional opponents, so even though this team is having a poor overall season, they continue to play well within their division. They have a stronger offense in this matchup and much better starter on the mound, and I like their chances of pulling out a win here tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Watson

1* Twins
1* Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

TOP PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY

(952) Pittsburgh +115 (Won posted earlier)
(956) NY Mets +120
(962) Arizona +200
(969) NY Yankees +160
(971) Boston +125
(978) Houston +150
*Listed Pitchers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS RUNNER

MLB LIVE-DOGS = WHITE SOX +170 and YANKEES +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BLACKSHEEP

medium margin move --- Over 8 1/2 - Boston vs Toronto