9-4-14

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::clap::

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Today's NFL Picks

Green Bay at Seattle

The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/1)


Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 1

Trend Report

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

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NFL

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

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EZWINNERS

4* Packers +5.5

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Behind The Bets

CFB
UTSA +7

NFL Thursday:
Seattle/Green Bay O46 (1U)

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Maddux Sports

NCAAF

10* Texas San Antonio +7

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StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Thursday

#461 GREEN BAY @ #462 SEATTLE
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.

Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.

•ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.

•ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.

•PREGAME NOTES: Rodgers has five straight seasons with a passer rating over 100.0 and has thrown for 101 TDs versus 20 interceptions in the past three campaigns.... Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.... Green Bay is 6-2 against the Seahawks since 2003 - with five of the wins coming in Seattle.... The Seahawks are 6-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 7-points or less over the last three seasons.... The Packers are 58-37 Over in games played on turf since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--GREEN BAY is 37-19 OVER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.5, OPPONENT 10.4.

--SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 24.6, OPPONENT 14.2.

•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.0, OPPONENT 21.5.

--MIKE MCCARTHY is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 16.5, OPPONENT 10.8.

--PETE CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 30.4, OPPONENT 11.6.

--PETE CARROLL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in the first month of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 13.1.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 6-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-3 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GREEN BAY is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Packers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--GB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--GB is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in GB last 4 games in September.

--SEA is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
--SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 7-0 in SEA last 7 vs. NFC.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 40 times, while the underdog covered the spread 16 times. *EDGE against the spread =SEATTLE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 48 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 38 games went over the total, while 29 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 74 times, while the underdog covered first half line 47 times. *No EDGE. 63 games went over first half total, while 55 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (GREEN BAY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games.
(62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.2, Opponent 18.8 (Average point differential = +5.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10, +13.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-18, +18.5 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (112-65, +22.4 units).

How Was Your Football Season Last Year?
If you didn’t go 25-6 during August and September (80.6%), you weren’t with us here at StatSystems Sports! That was our win-loss record the first two months of the season with our Huge *5-Star Selections.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

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NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”

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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Thursday, 9/4/2014

•Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers (91.6%). Home side won seven of last eight series matchups; Packers are 2-3 in last five games at CenturyLink Field, losing last visit in 2012 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy (70.8%) until last year, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub quarterback’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 versus non-division foes.

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Gold Medal Club- Saturday CFB Selections

5* 322- toledo +5
368 tulane +10.5
371-michigan +4.5

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #2 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the matchups that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in opening college football weekend. Each week there are several squads that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

•UL-Monroe (-1½) 17, Wake Forest 10: Despite posting fewer than 100 yards in the game, Wake Forest led 10-0 at the half Thursday night in a game that featured a big line move with the Demon Deacons initially a four-point favorite. By the start of the fourth quarter, the Warhawks had the game tied, capitalizing on a turnover with a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. On its second drive of the fourth quarter, Louisiana-Monroe delivered a 12-play drive for the go-ahead score with just over three minutes left on the clock. UL-Monroe out-gained Wake Forest 352-94 in the game as the Warhawks were impressive on defense in the opening win but the game wound up being down to the wire.

•Tulsa (-5) 38, Tulane 31: This American Athletic Conference opener featured Tulane leading the entire way, but a wild finish flipped the result. Tulsa got within one with a short field goal about halfway through the fourth quarter, but Tulane shortly thereafter connected on a 60-yard pass play for a touchdown to put the Wave up 28-20 with under seven minutes left on the clock. Tulsa would march down the field to answer, connecting for the score on a fourth down play and the successful two-point conversion incredibly tied the game with less than three minutes on the clock. It looked all for naught as on first down deep in its own its territory, Tulane running back Sherman Badie broke loose with a 73 yard run to inside the Tulsa 10. Tulane would end up settling for a short field goal try, and Andrew DiRocco would miss left from just 21 yards, a kick that would have at the very least sealed an underdog cover. Both teams had the ball again in the final two minutes, but both drives stalled midfield and overtime was needed. In the first session, both teams hit short field goals but Tulsa found the end zone going first in the second session. Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee was then intercepted on 2nd down to end the game, giving Tulsa the win and a miraculous favorite cover on opening night.

•Mississippi (-10) 35, Boise State 13: The start of the season did not look pretty in this national TV game as both teams struggled with penalties and turnovers in the first half. By the start of the fourth quarter, Mississippi led just 7-6 as both teams squandered scoring chances with interceptions. While Boise State did a great job stopping the run, the Mississippi passing attack found some openings in the fourth quarter, scoring three touchdowns in less than five minutes of game clock, including a 76-yard play to put the Rebels comfortably ahead 28-6. Boise State would answer with a scoring drive to get back within 15, but after failing to recover the onside kick, Mississippi was able to punch in another touchdown to put the game away. The yardage was fairly close in this game with the underdog Broncos holding a big edge on the ground. The final score was certainly a bit misleading in what was a sloppy opening effort for both teams.

•Rutgers (+7½) 41, Washington State 38: Rutgers stormed out to an early lead in this game, but Washington State would rally to take the lead three different times in the second half, though the Cougars never actually got past the favorite spread at any point. Washington State led by seven entering the fourth quarter to put fear into those on the underdog that felt good about a win with the hot start from the Knights. Rutgers would answer with back-to-back scoring drives in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to lead 34-31, but it took less than three minutes for Washington State to get the lead back, up 38-34 with just over eight minutes to go. On the next Rutgers possession, the Knights were stuffed deep in their own zone and forced to punt, seemingly giving the quick striking Washington State offense a chance to score and subsequently pull past the spread, but the punt returner muffed the catch and Rutgers recovered at midfield. Rutgers was able to move down the field for the go-ahead scored with just over three minutes to go in the game, all but locking up the underdog cover. Washington State ran seven plays on its final possession, but they could not convert and Rutgers scored a nice upset win in its debut representing the Big Ten.

•BYU (-14½) 35, Connecticut 10: BYU took control of this game early, but the favorite cover was in serious jeopardy late in the game. Down by 18, Connecticut went all the way down to the BYU 10-yard line but the Huskies came up short going for it on 4th down with just over six minutes to go. BYU would answer with a touchdown to put the game away as another Connecticut drive deep into BYU territory late in the game would also prove fruitless.

•Colorado State (+2½) 31, Colorado 17: The Buffaloes led 10-0 into the second quarter in this Rocky Mountain rivalry game and scoring first in the second half put the Buffaloes back up by 10 at 17-7. A strong kickoff return put the Rams in good position and they answered with a touchdown drive but Colorado still led by three, just covering the narrow favorite spread entering the fourth quarter. Shortly into the final frame, Colorado State took its first lead and then the Rams stepped up on defense, holding Colorado scoreless in the fourth quarter to pull away with a minor upset win.

•Ohio State (-13) 34, Navy 17: The spread on this big opening game was a roller coaster, opening at -17 then dropping significantly with Braxton Miller’s injury. The spread climbed nearly all the way back up before falling again on game day. For most of the game, the underdog was in prime position with Navy actually leading deep into the third quarter. Ohio State led by six entering the final frame, but a Navy field goal cut the margin to just three points, seemingly securing the cover for the underdog. It was not to be, however, as Ohio State delivered two long scoring drives to close out the game with the ATS win sealing touchdown with just over two minutes to go as Navy backers took a very tough defeat.

•Boston College (-17) 30, Massachusetts 7: The Eagles led just 20-7 entering the fourth quarter after the Minutemen connected on a 77-yard pass play for their only score of the day. Boston College would pull past the spread with 10 points in the fourth quarter in a game the Eagles had over 500 yards in despite modest scoring.

•Auburn (-17) 45, Arkansas 21: As a heavy underdog, Arkansas played a great first half sitting tied with the defending SEC champions at 21-21 at the break. After an Auburn touchdown, disaster struck for the Razorbacks with an interception returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter putting the Tigers up by 14. Storms were threatening in the fourth quarter and those on the underdog got a big stop with Arkansas holding Auburn to a field goal with less than 10 minutes left in the game to keep the margin at 17 points. A nearly hour and a half delay ensued with lightning in the area, putting Arkansas in an impossible situation to come back and finish the game knowing they had little chance to win. Auburn added a late touchdown to give the heavy favorite a very fortunate cover.

•Georgia (-9½) 45, Clemson 21: This big primetime matchup featured Clemson dominating the yardage in the first half, but Georgia managing to match the Tigers at 21-21 with the help of short field drives and a kickoff return touchdown. After the high scoring first half, the third quarter featured only three points as the severe late line move on this game appeared to be wrong. Georgia would bowl over the Clemson defense in the fourth quarter, however, breaking long runs and scoring three touchdowns in a four-minute span to pull away, producing a misleading final score and misleading yardage totals in the box score.

•Oklahoma (-34) 48, Louisiana Tech 16: Oklahoma was one of the biggest favorites of the weekend as far as FBS matchups, but the spread dropped four points throughout the week. The Sooners dominated the game and led 41-3 entering the fourth quarter, but the underdog Bulldogs would get two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against an uninterested Sooners defense, the second of which came with just 37 seconds left in the game for a spread spoiling backdoor cover.

•LSU (-3½) 28, Wisconsin 24: The spread in the big Saturday night game bounced around between 3½ and 5, making for contrasting results for everyone involved depending on the timing with the closing number falling back to just 3½. Wisconsin was in control early with a 10-point lead at the half, growing to 11-points heading into the fourth quarter. Those on the underdog certainly had growing concern as injuries had decimated a Badgers defense that played well in the first half and the Wisconsin offense was really struggling. As often has been the case with LSU, the Tigers managed to pull ahead with a 28-24 edge in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin seemingly had it last possession deep in its own zone with less than two minutes to go as those on the Badgers +4 or greater held their breath. Gary Andersen oddly opted to punt despite the minimal chance that his team could get the ball back, but the move probably saved LSU from scoring again and earning a clear favorite cover at any number.
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NCAAF Line Watch - Week #2
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the 2014-15 college football season right here in our Weekly Stat/Sheets, StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. “Until next week, enjoy and as always the very best of luck” -Jude!

Spread To Bet Now

•Fresno State Bulldogs @ Utah Utes (-10.5, Over/Under 63)
Utah is currently a 10.5-point home favorite and I expect the money to come in on the Utes in this matchup. Utah cruised to an easy 56-14 home win over FCS Idaho State in its season opener. The Utes have a lot of momentum for this game and since they have a bye on deck, we can expect a prime effort in Week #2.

Fresno State was completely out-classed in their 52-13 loss to USC during Week #1. It’s clear that the Bulldogs are not the same team that went 11-2 last season. Now they must play their second consecutive confrontation on the road after taking a physical beating. This line will only go up, so lay the points with Utah now.

Spread To Wait On

•Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5, Over/Under 54.5)
Michigan and Notre Dame both won by impressive margins last weekend. The Wolverines beat Appalachian State 52-14 while the Fighting Irish beat Rice 48-17. The early money has come in on Michigan as the Wolverines are down to +4.5 after opening as +5.5 road underdogs. I expect continued line movement downward as the power ratings make this game right around a field goal spread.

Notre Dame is a much better team this season with the return of quarterback Everett Golson. The QB situation in South Bend was a mess last year, but with stability the Irish can run a balanced offense. Michigan has been stale over the last two years and this year doesn’t look any different. I expect the public to be on the underdog, so playing the Irish closer to kick off is the way to go.

Total To Watch

•Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks (-12, Over/Under 56)
This non-conference matchup is a contrast in styles. Michigan State wins with defense and it plays ball control with its ability to run the football consistently. Oregon wants to play as fast as possible, wearing down its opponent’s defense. The early projected lines here on the strip in Las Vegas have this total pegged at 56 points. Oregon is currently a 12-point favorite, so an opening number in the high 50s makes a lot of sense. Michigan State’s highest posted total during last season was 54 points with twelve of its 14 games set at 48.5 or less.

Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
Both the NFL and NCAAF regular seasons are right around the corner. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"

Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.

"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
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Quick Hits - Week #2
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Thursday, 9/4/2014

#301 ARIZONA @ #302 UTSA - 8:00 PM
The Wildcats won 38-13 when these teams met last season in Tucson and this will be a daunting early season road trip for an Arizona team with few veteran players in key positions this season. This game is also on a short week for both squads as both teams played Friday night in the opening weekend schedule. Both teams got great results with Arizona posting huge numbers in a blowout and UTSA stunning Houston on the road. Last season Arizona rushed for 264 yards to control the game on the ground, something they may be able to do again with a solid offensive line even with inexperience in the backfield. Arizona only out-gained the Roadrunners by 43 yards in 2013 but a late score for UTSA hid an even more lopsided margin on the scoreboard. UTSA will be seeking a marquee win for the program in its second full FBS season but value may be gone after last week.

Friday, 9/5/2014

#303 PITTSBURGH @ #304 BOSTON COLLEGE - 7:00 PM
These former Big East teams will meet as ACC foes for the first time with the Panthers visiting Chestnut Hill for this primetime matchup. Boston College has led the recent series history but the last meeting was in 2004. The Eagles have been a formidable underdog in recent years and this will be the home opener after opening up southwest of town in Foxborough last week. This is the first of back-to-back road games for a Pittsburgh team that is just 4-7 S/U on the road in two seasons under Paul Chryst. The Eagles have dropped five consecutive lined home openers and after surprising last season it could be a step back 2014 season for BC.

#305 WASHINGTON ST @ #306 NEVADA - 10:30 PM
The Wolf Pack possesses a lot of experience on defense but this will be a daunting matchup to prepare for. Several pass-oriented teams posted big numbers on Nevada last season but this looks like a team that should improve this season, even after some sloppiness in the opening week win over Southern Utah. This will be a second straight game away from home for the Cougars and the smaller conference recruits out west will be thrilled to host a Pac-12 school. Two years ago Nevada beat California as a double-digit underdog and with veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo back for his senior season and an experienced defense this may be a tougher game than expected for the visiting Cougars. Washington State had a prominent opening game and after allowing nearly 33 points per game on average last season the defenses appears to still have issues after losing to Rutgers 41-38, and surrendering big yardage on the ground.

Top-25 Matchups Week #2

#307 FLA ATLANTIC @ #308 ALABAMA - 12:00 PM
The Crimson Tide will face soft spots on the schedule the next two weeks following up a opening game win over West Virginia that was tougher than expected. This line may climb out of control, especially with Florida Atlantic coming off playing in Lincoln last week. The Owls have been a solid ATS road performer in recent years and this line is extremely high. FAU is not an easy team to pass against so there may not be great opportunities for big plays in the air for quarterback Blake Sims, who was inconsistent during Week #1. This is still an inexperienced Alabama roster and this may not yet look like a championship contending team despite the high hopes.

#309 KANSAS ST @ #310 IOWA ST - 12:00 PM
The Cyclones fell out of the bowl picture last season and this will be a key game for the team to move to 1-1 after losing to a formidable North Dakota State team last Saturday. Kansas State had a much weaker opening matchup and with the Auburn game up next for the Wildcats, they could overlook a foe they beat 41-7 in 2013. Iowa State gave a then #6 ranked Kansas State team fits in Ames two years ago as the Wildcats escaped with a narrow win and the Cyclones know the importance of this confrontation in any bowl hopes. Kansas State has not been immune to an upset loss in recent years and the Cyclones should expect to be a much more productive offensive team in 2014 with nearly all of last season’s offense back.

#321 MISSOURI @ #322 TOLEDO - 12:00 PM
Toledo faced a formidable opening opponent in New Hampshire, a quality FCS team and the Rockets still posted big numbers. Toledo has a new quarterback but a lot of other pieces in place for a successful season as they hope to challenge Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference West. Beating one of the top teams in the South Eastern Conference would be a great boost for the program and last season the Rockets played the eventual SEC East champions very tough in a 15-point loss on the road. The yardage was nearly identical but a few Toledo turnovers were costly. Missouri won’t overlook the Rockets but they do have a bigger game with Central Florida up next and the Tigers lost a great deal of quality contributors from last year’s team, featuring only eight returning starters. The Tigers are not getting the support that a defending SEC East champion and Cotton Bowl winner would normally receive but the Tigers also did not impress in its Week #1 win over SDSU.

#339 USC @ #340 STANFORD - 3:30 PM
These teams play in opposing divisions in the Pac-12 but this game will go a long way to shaping the conference race. Stanford is not the favorite in the North despite besting Oregon and winning the conference title the past two seasons. Stanford has a tougher schedule this year and must go to Eugene so there is not much margin for error for the Cardinal this season even if they can upset the Ducks again. USC had a formidable opening game in a bowl rematch with Fresno State and getting win #1 takes a lot of pressure off for new head coach Steve Sarkisian. USC beat then #5 Stanford 20-17 in 2013 at home as the Trojans rallied late in the season under interim coach Ed Orgeron and while this is a talent-rich squad, revenge may be coming from a Stanford program that continues to impress. This is a pretty steep underdog spread for USC in any situation however.

#347 OLE MISS vs. #348 VANDERBILT - 4:30 PM
Mississippi and Vanderbilt played one of the most exciting games of the opening college weekend last season with Ole Miss escaping with a 39-35 win. This season’s game is in Nashville for the second straight year but it will not be at Vanderbilt Stadium. Both of these teams played on the opening Thursday night of college football with sloppy play the theme for both teams. Mississippi survived a great deal of penalties and three interceptions to still win but Vanderbilt was on the wrong side of a lopsided result with seven turnovers to blame. This is a huge game for Vanderbilt as the Commodores attempt to get back on track behind new head coach Derek Mason in a transition season. Mississippi has had two solid years under Hugh Freeze and this is a team that could breakthrough with an even better season in 2014 but moving up in the SEC West is not an easy task. This will be a second game away from home in a row for the Rebels and the early season schedule has been challenging. Mississippi has actually only won S/U in two of the last five meetings between these schools and this matchup may wind up closer than expected with misleading scores during Week #1.
__________________________________________________ ___

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#351 MICHIGAN ST @ #352 OREGON - 6:30 PM
Both of these squads are among the dozen or so teams most feel have a legitimate shot at making the four-team playoff at the end of the season. The winner will obviously have a huge non-conference win on the resume and should the committee have any tough decisions to make between the Pac-12 and Big Ten this game may be a factor. Oregon is one of the national title favorites but that is a role the Ducks have been in before with no hardware to show for it. Michigan State is coming off a Rose Bowl title in which they went out west and soundly defeated a favored Stanford team that has had Oregon’s number. The Spartans have been moved into the Big Ten favorite role with Ohio State’s misfortune this summer but it is hard to see Michigan State being as strong as last season with some key pieces moving on. Michigan State cruised last week in a tougher than it sounds matchup with Jacksonville State. The Ducks have had a few injuries this summer as well and the Oregon defense has some holes to fill after a great deal of departures as well. Oregon has actually lost a home game in two of the last three seasons but this will be a tough venue for a team that really did not have any overly impressive road wins last season though a light Big Ten schedule plus losing in South Bend.

#359 ARIZONA ST @ #360 NEW MEXICO - 7:00 PM
The Sun Devils won 10 games in 2013 for the first time since 2007 but the season ended sourly with a lopsided bowl defeat. While a handful of transfers help the cause, Arizona State has among the fewest returning starters in the nation, with an especially green defense suiting up this season. Normally this has been a program that has struggled on the road but the Sun Devils are 6-4 S/U on the road under Todd Graham including going 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role the past two seasons. Taylor Kelly looked sharp during Week #1 to lead the Sun Devils to a convincing win over Weber State but next week’s confrontation at Colorado is more important and the Arizona State defense might have some issues against the deliberate rush attack from New Mexico. The Lobo defense has had great issues including allowing nearly 43 points per game last season however. New Mexico had turnover issues last Saturday in a tough opening defeat.

#363 E CAROLINA @ #364 S CAROLINA - 7:00 PM
The Gamecocks have had a bit of extra time to get ready for this contest playing on Thursday night last week but this is a difficult sandwich game in between two huge conference games. The Gamecocks will need that extra time to recover from a stunning blowout loss in which the former South Eastern Conference East favorites allowed nearly 700 yards. East Carolina was pummeled in Columbia early in the 2012 season but the Pirates have a handful of notable wins in recent years with upsets over NC State, Central Florida, and North Carolina in the four years since Ruffin McNeill took over in Greenville. After a 10-3 season it figures to be a step-back season for East Carolina making the leap to the American Athletic Conference with a very tough non-conference schedule as well but few programs have a better underdog record in the past decade. Shane Carden is an impressive quarterback and playing up-tempo is not something the current South Carolina team may be comfortable with, especially after Kenny Hill shredded the Gamecocks in his first start for the Aggies.

#365 SAN JOSE ST @ #366 AUBURN - 7:00 PM
The Tigers had a big Week #1 matchup with Arkansas and next on the schedule is a prominent national non-conference encounter with Kansas State. The Tigers took care of business against smaller school teams last season with three blowout wins and this will be a challenging environment for a San Jose State squad playing across the country. The Spartans may no longer have the great passing game they have had the past two seasons with David Fales and the defense really struggling against the run in 2013, a bad formula for hanging with Auburn. San Jose State should be a competent team in the Mountain West Conference again this season but this is too tough of a matchup and this game does not set-up in a great situation for the underdog.

#371 MICHIGAN @ #372 NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM
Michigan played in the Sugar Bowl three seasons ago and Notre Dame was in the BCS championship two seasons ago but it seems longer than that as these former national powers feature grounded expectations this season. The underdog has enjoyed incredible success in this series historically but the favorite has won and covered narrowly each of the past two seasons with the host coming out on top. Recent suspensions hurt the cause on defense for an already thin Irish unit but Michigan has regressed statistically on offense and defense in each of the last two seasons under Brady Hoke. While Notre Dame faced a more credible opponent during Week #1, the opener was a big game for Michigan and this line will be shaded a bit low given the overwhelming underdog success in this series. Hoke has not produced a winning road record in any of his five seasons as a head coach at Michigan or San Diego State and the Irish might slip by.

#375 SAN DIEGO ST @ #376 N CAROLINA - 8:00 PM
North Carolina finished 2013 strong with Marquise Williams taking over at quarterback and the Tar Heels winning six of the final seven games of the season. The schedule played a prominent role in both the poor start and strong finish last year and with elevated expectations this season the Tar Heels feel a bit overvalued. Rocky Long has had three successful campaigns in San Diego even with a lot of new players on offense each season. The numbers have been pretty consistent for the Aztecs and this will be a big early season test for the team. San Diego State also finished the 2013 season strong with wins in eight of the final 10 after a 0-3 start. The Aztecs played four overtime games last season and also nearly upset Oregon State. Going up against a Pac-12 team would have more meaning for this team however and the long travel will be a challenge but the Tar Heels may be a fade team early in the season. San Diego State had good balance last Saturday in disposing of Northern Arizona, a ranked FCS team. North Carolina meanwhile played down the competition in a sloppy 56-29 win over Liberty. The Tar Heels got six turnovers but didn’t pull away until the second half in a shaky debut showing despite the final score.

#377 VIRGINIA TECH @ #378 OHIO ST - 8:00 PM
The injury to Heisman candidate Braxton Miller certainly changes the look of this game and a much more competitive contest is now expected. Virginia Tech has a new quarterback as well but most of the rest of the offense is back. The Hokies fell well short in their toughest games last season however with blowout losses to both Alabama and UCLA. Virginia Tech has a great underdog track record under Frank Beamer while Ohio State has been tough to go against in the home favorite role with strong historical numbers for both teams. This should now be a game that the Hokies really believe they can win in and a great Virginia Tech secondary will likely force the Buckeyes into a more one-dimensional attack. Ohio State should have better success stopping the run than the statistics from last week suggest but Virginia Tech was very sound against the run during Week #1 as well. Ohio State won by 17 last Saturday but it was a very misleading final and this will be a much tougher test for the new-look Buckeyes offense.

#379 OKLAHOMA @ #380 TULSA - 12:00 PM
This series often looks like a promising opportunity for Tulsa, taking on the marquee program in the state. It often ends poorly for the Hurricane however, including a 51-20 loss in Norman last season. An Oklahoma offense that didn’t play well the first two weeks broke out in that game and this season the Sooners should be very tough on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a veteran defense but it was not a quality unit last year in an ugly 3-9 season to follow-up an 11-3 Conference USA championship season in 2012. This is a program in a favorable position to bounce back with better results in 2014 but this does not figure to be a matchup the team can expect to compete in. It won’t be a great home field edge with OU fans invading Chapman Stadium and in the big picture the other games on the schedule are much more important for the Hurricane. Oklahoma does have Tennessee on deck in the schedule but Tulsa is coming off one of the most fortunate wins ever and the run defense was terrible during Week #1.

#381 MEMPHIS @ #382 UCLA 10:00 PM
The Bruins will open the season with as much national fanfare as they have had in over a decade but this could be a tricky matchup on the schedule. The Bruins had to play across the country at Virginia last weekend and next on the schedule is a huge national game with Texas in Arlington. UCLA struggled offensively during Week #1 only to get bailed out by Virginia mistakes with three defensive touchdowns. Memphis was just 3-9 in 2013 but it was a very competitive team that returns much of the roster from last year. Memphis only lost twice by more than 14 points during the campaign and both of those defeats came at the end of the season after the goals of the season were dashed and with the team banged up. Memphis played Central Florida, Houston, and Louisville very tough in 2013 and the Tigers will be a formidable underdog.
_________________________________________

Gridiron Trends - Week #2
•NORTH TEXAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTH TEXAS 30.5, OPPONENT 18.4.

•ARKANSAS ST is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 19.3, OPPONENT 25.2.

•UAB is 9-25 (-67.1 Units) against the money line after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 23.4, OPPONENT 32.8.

•NEW MEXICO ST is 4-20 (-18.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 since 1992.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 9.6, OPPONENT 27.6.

•E MICHIGAN is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 10.7, OPPONENT 28.0.

•PAUL JOHNSON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.
The average score was JOHNSON 35.7, OPPONENT 17.7.

•TERRY BOWDEN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of AKRON.
The average score was BOWDEN 19.0, OPPONENT 27.8.

•MARK HUDSPETH is 10-1 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 37 points or more last game as the coach of LA LAFAYETTE.
The average score was HUDSPETH 32.4, OPPONENT 27.1.

•KIRK FERENTZ is 40-13 (+25.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was FERENTZ 16.6, OPPONENT 7.9.

•PAUL RHOADS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of IOWA ST.
The average score was RHOADS 8.7, OPPONENT 10.9.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - A home team versus the money line (NEVADA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion percentage of 62% or better, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.
(38-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.4%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 42.5, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +24.8)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +3.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +26.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (59-14, +21.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (73-22, +13 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones

NFL Green Bay Packers(+6)-110...(3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday Night Football: Packers at Seahawks

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 47)

The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.

Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Seahawks as 5.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -6. The total opened at 45, but has risen to 47.

INJURY REPORT: Packers - DT B.J. Raji (IR, bicep). Seahawks - S Kam Chancellor (probably, hip), LB Bruce Irvin (questionable, hip).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-4) + Seahawks (-7) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -6

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened at Seattle -6 and we have not seen any sharp money yet. We are almost split down the middle on the game with 54 percent of bets taking the Seahawks -6. The total, which has jumped two points since opening, has 77 percent of backers on the over 47." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "First meeting between these teams since the replacement ref faux pas contest in 2012 figures to bring the Packers in with added incentive. Problem is Seahawks' 12th man in home games where they are 17-1 SU the past two seasons. Seattle is also 10-1 ATS in season openers at home. Coupled with the success of defending Super Bowl champions in Thursday games, 12-0 SU and 8-2-2 ATS at home, it appears a tough row to hoe for Green Bay in this lid-lifter." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Under is 7-0 in Seahawks last seven vs. NFC.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. NFC.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 54.15 percent of wagers are supporting the Packers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Arizona at Texas-San Antonio

Arizona Wildcats at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (+7, 56)

Arizona put on a dynamic offensive display in its season opener, but the Wildcats' second contest appears as if it will be anything but a cake walk. The Wildcats hit the road for the first time Thursday when they take on Texas-San Antonio, which is also coming off an impressive win in Week 1. Arizona rolled to a 58-13 victory over UNLV on Friday behind a school-record 787 yards of total offense, including 425 passing yards by Anu Solomon.

“Our guys competed well and kept their poise,” Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez told reporters. “It was a good win and we’ll learn from it. We will get a quick turnaround and get ready for the next one.” Arizona, which registered two 100-yard rushers and two 100-yard receivers Friday, is trying to start 2-0 for the sixth time in the last seven years. Meanwhile, UTSA's football program has only been in existence since 2011 but the Roadrunners are coming off one of the biggest wins in school history.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Wildcats at 7-point road favorites and the total at 56.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona - DL Reggie Gilbert (questionable, foot). UTSA - T Josh Walker (questionable, undisclosed).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Wildcats at -7.5 before moving them down a half point to -7. Despite the fact that the Roadrunners defeated Houston last week by 20 in a game they were a 7.5 point underdog, USTA is only getting 22 percent of the cash. Despite moving the total up a point and a half to 56.5 we are still seeing a huge decision on the total. 91 percent of the bets are taking the over." - Mike Perry ofSportsbook.ag (http://www.sportsbook.ag/)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Tricky contest given UTSA’s modicum of success under head coach Larry Coker and Arizona’s revitalization behind Rich Rodriguez. The Roadrunners win at Houston last week was not a fluke as they feature a roster loaded with 38 seniors. On the other hand the Wildcats pummeled UNLV, laying 787 yards of offense on the Rebels in their season opener on Saturday. With only five days to prepare for both squads, this game could well feature a well-lit scoreboard." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT ARIZONA (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): Solomon, a redshirt freshman, also ran for 50 yards last week as part of a 353-yard rushing attack for the Wildcats, who were led by Terris Jones-Grigsby (124 yards) and Nick Wilson (104). With Austin Hill (110 yards) and Samajie Grant (101) going over the century mark through the air, it marked the first time in school history that Arizona had two 100-yard rushers and a pair of 100-yard receivers in the same game. “We have the ability to be a good offense this year. We just need to carry the confidence like we do," said Hill, who had a 92-yard TD catch-and-run in his first game in 20 months following knee surgery.

ABOUT TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): The Roadrunners opened their season with a resounding 27-7 road victory against Houston, holding the Cougars scoreless until 1:04 remained. David Glasco II ran for a pair of touchdowns and the UTSA defense forced six turnovers, including four interceptions. One negative for the Roadrunners is they committed 14 penalties for 115 yards - a stat they surely will need to clean up if they are going to upset the Wildcats.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in Roadrunners last five games overall.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last five road games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 78 percent of wagers are backing the Arizona Wildcats.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole


2 * Packers over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
Over 45.5

Stephen Nover
Over 45.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stevewins

Arizona -6 (Buy the point)
5*****

Seattle -5 (Buy the hook)
5*****

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona at Texas-San Antonio
By Joe Nelson

College football is back as this week’s Thursday night matchup is much more intriguing after the Week 1 results than it was when the schedule was released. Arizona will face its first road game in a rematch of one last season’s non-conference games while Texas-San Antonio will look for another major upset after a big win last Friday in Houston. Here is a look at both teams playing Thursday night in college football.

Match-up: Arizona Wildcats at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
Venue: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas (field turf)
Date: Thursday, September 4, 2014
Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET – FOX Sports 1
Line: Arizona -7
Last Meeting: 2013, Arizona (-24½) 38-13

Texas-San Antonio has played just one season as a full FBS member and this 2014 season will be the first year that the Roadrunners will be bowl eligible as they were not eligible in last season’s 7-5 campaign. Expect Texas-San Antonio to be in the postseason this year and while Marshall is getting a lot of press as the team to beat in Conference USA, the Roadrunners could be the top team in the West side of the conference. The Roadrunners made a big opening statement with a 27-7 win at Houston last Friday, spoiling the opening of the new stadium for the Cougars and grabbing perhaps the biggest win in the history of the program.

That win avenged a 59-28 loss from last season for Texas-San Antonio and less than a week later the Roadrunners will get another shot in a revenge game, hosting an Arizona team that beat them 38-13 last season. This is a veteran Roadrunners team that returned nearly every important player from last season’s very competitive squad and is coached by Larry Coker, who led Miami to a national championship in 2001. Last season, the Roadrunners hosted Oklahoma State in a big non-conference home date, this year they will hope for better results in the marquee home game of the season at the Alamodome.

Last season, Arizona only had a small yardage edge against Texas-San Antonio, but while Arizona capitalized on its opportunities, the Roadrunners left Arizona territory empty on a few possessions to fall behind 24-6 at the half. Arizona had a modest yardage total of only 422 yards in the game, well below the season average for the Wildcats. Even with a lot of new personnel, the Wildcats posted nearly 800 yards last week to crush UNLV and it will be a difficult task for the Roadrunners defensively this week.

Arizona hosted UNLV last Friday night and it was a dominant result with a 58-13 win. Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon threw for four touchdowns in a mild surprise as the starter this season ahead of senior Jesse Scroggins. The Wildcats ran for 7.4 yards per carry as replacing Ka’Deem Carey was not a problem in game 1. UNLV actually had solid production with decent drives in the first half of the game as an Arizona defense that allowed over 400 yards per game last season still looks vulnerable and the competition will get tougher moving forward. This is an extremely athletic Wildcats team that may be the most talented that Rich Rodriguez has had in three years in Tucson, though the team has limited game experience overall.

Texas-San Antonio certainly had some great fortune in the upset on Friday night as a game that most expected would be an offensive showcase featured ugly results for both offenses. The Roadrunners punted on six of their first seven drives with a total of 22 net yards gained as they failed to pull away despite getting four first half turnovers from Houston. Texas-San Antonio managed to score a touchdown in the final minute of the first half in what was a huge score that changed the complexion of the game. Houston was held to negative rushing yards but six turnovers were clearly pivotal as Houston sophomore quarterback John O’Korn had four interceptions and a nightmare game overall leading the Cougars on offense. Houston had to abandon the running game early after falling behind so the Texas-San Antonio run defense may not be as stout as it looked in the box score.

Senior quarterback Tucker Carter did not have to do a lot leading the Texas-San Antonio offense as he passed for just 121 yards with very few downfield throws, averaging just over five yards per pass attempt. The Roadrunners only rushed for just 2.9 yards per carry as once the team built a lead it took a very conservative approach. This was not a great passing team last season and it will be interesting to see if they are able to keep up with an Arizona offense that will likely put up a much better offensive showing. The Texas-San Antonio defense will get a much tougher test this week unless they can create more turnovers against a young quarterback in his first road game.

This will be a big test for Texas-San Antonio to see if they can handle some success and some national attention as this Thursday night game should have a bit more national intrigue after last week’s results. The spread obviously has changed dramatically as the Roadrunners are not nearly the underdog they were last season. Texas-San Antonio narrowly missed covering against Arizona last season but there is an over 17-point adjustment this season with the venue shift. While Arizona is a more prominent program than Houston, this matchup might not bring the same focus for a roster filled with mainly Texas kids, going against a bigger in-state school last week. This also might have been a better upset opportunity for Texas-San Antonio had they lost last week as now Arizona will be well aware of what the Roadrunners can do.

For both teams this is a big opportunity to get a quality non-conference win over a team that will likely be in the postseason. Arizona is just 4-6 S/U in road games under Rodriguez although Texas-San Antonio was just 3-3 S/U in the dome last season. While the NFL matchup will certainly get more viewers by a mile Thursday night, this is a better matchup than it might sound to the casual college football fan and this game will be worth turning to during the breaks.

Line Movement: The early line opened at -8 before dipping to just -7 early this week.

Last Meeting: This game occurred in the third week of last season and it was a tough follow-up game for Texas-San Antonio coming off hosting Oklahoma State in one of the biggest home dates in the history of the program. Arizona led 38-6 in the fourth quarter before Texas-San Antonio got a late score to make the final score more respectable. Arizona had just a 422-379 yardage edge, posting 264 yards on the ground playing with a lead. Texas-San Antonio passed for 277 yards playing from behind most of the game to boost the yardage numbers.

Series History: This is just the second meeting, with Arizona winning and covering last season 38-13 at home.

Arizona Historical Trends: The Wildcats have not posted strong historical numbers in the road favorite role, going just 23-34 ATS as a road favorite since 1980, including going 4-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2008. Should this line climb, Arizona is just 8-19 ATS as road favorite of 10 or more points since 1982. Arizona is just 4-6 S/U & ATS in road games under Rodriguez, going just 2-4 ATS last season. Arizona is also just 17-28 ATS as a favorite of seven or more since 1999.

Texas-San Antonio Historical Trends: The Roadrunners only have ATS numbers for the past two seasons vs. FBS competition. Texas-San Antonio is 4-5 ATS at home and 2-3 ATS as a home underdog since 2012 as the road ATS numbers have been much more promising for the Roadrunners. Texas-San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog including last week’s win.

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NCAA Football Game PicksArizona at TX-San AntonioThe Wildcats head to Texas-San Antonio on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 non-conference games. Arizona is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7). Here are all of this week's games.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/3)


Game 301-302: Arizona at TX-San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 94.434; TX-San Antonio 84.304
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10; 60
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7; 54
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7); Over

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Seahawks vs. Packers Betting Preview and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein

The Seahawks begin their Super Bowl defense Thursday by entertaining fellow championship contender Green Bay in a standalone showcase (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Seattle has been a consistently dominant home team in the Pete Carroll era, covering 24 of 35 games (68.6 percent) at raucous CenturyLink Field. Seattle has covered in those games, including losses, by an average of 5.9 points.

The Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

Line movement: The LVH opened this game Seattle -5 back in April, and while the number bounced between 5 and 5.5 through August, it crept up to 6 at a few Las Vegas venues two days before the game.

This total opened at 44.5 or 45 across Vegas and shot up to 46 or 46.5. It could be a reaction to the preseason, when refs strictly enforced illegal contact and defensive holding – exactly the kind of calls that make Seattle’s Legion of Boom less effective. For updated Las Vegas lines, see our live odds page .

Trends that matter: The UNDER is 5-0 in Seattle’s last five home games and 7-0 in Seattle’s last seven games vs. NFC foes … Green Bay is 59-36-1 ATS (62.1 percent) alltime with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

Rookie under the gun: Corey Linsley, a fifth-round pick out of Ohio State, will start at center for Green Bay due to JC Tretter’s injury. He’ll be responsible for setting up protections – a tall order with the 12th Man in full roar. If Linsley doesn’t bark out calls quickly enough, the Packers’ no-huddle offense won’t work.

Seahawks to manhandle Packers? Jordy Nelson says he expects the refs to ease up on the ticky-tack penalties; how this game is called will have a dramatic effect. If the refs let Richard Sherman and Co. mug Green Bay’s receivers, Rodgers won’t be able to overcome it. The Packers need to get a few calls to give them room to operate.

Eddie Lacy the X-factor: Coach Pete Carroll is concerned about what Lacy brings to Green Bay, with good reason. Lacy provides a hammer the Packers long have lacked.

“He will not go down easily,” Carroll told reporters. “They also have him in on third down and they don’t mind throwing it to him. He’s an obvious element now. He’s a big deal."

The Seahawks have a quick defense that's not overly big. Lacy could wear them down if Green Bay sticks with it.

Injuries that matter: Packers TE Brandon Bostick (leg) isn’t expected to play. It’s a small ding to Green Bay’s passing game.

Weather: It will be 74 and clear at gametime, with winds at 7 mph. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers’ lean: While it takes some gumption to bet against Seattle at home, Green Bay has been a fine play on the road under McCarthy, with a 25-20-1 ATS mark since 2009, and 41-27-1 since his tenure began in 2006. Sure, that doesn't match the Seahawks' 25-10 cash rate at home under Pete Carroll, but value trumps trends in our book, and we see value in the Packers +6.

We're also looking at the OVER, as we have the league's best QB on one side of the field, and the sixth-best (Russell Wilson) up against the 27th-ranked defense, according to The Linemakers' Kenny White.

Packers +6, OVER 46 are our plays.

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Seahawks begin title defense Thursday vs. Packers
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-0)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -6, Total: 46.5

The Green Bay Packers head to Seattle Thursday night to take on the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the opening game of the 2014 NFL season.

The season kicks off with a matchup between two NFC powerhouses. Last season, the Packers dealt with numerous injuries but still won the NFC North Division with an 8-7-1 SU record (6-9-1 ATS). They are healthy now and are looking to start their season off with a big road win, going 4-4 SU (3-4-1 ATS) on the road last year. The Seahawks, however, are coming off of a blowout win over the Broncos in the Super Bowl to cap off an amazing 16-3 SU record (13-6 ATS), which included a 9-1 SU mark (6-4 ATS) at home. The Packers were road favorites the last time they went to Seattle in September of 2012, but they lost the game 14-12. That win for Seattle, however, is their only ATS victory over Green Bay since 2004. The Seahawks are 2-6 SU in their past eight meetings with the Packers and 1-3-2 ATS in the past six matchups. Three of the last five games between these teams have gone Over the total. Both teams have positive coaching trends here, as Green Bay is 60-43 ATS (58%) versus NFC foes under head coach Mike McCarthy, while Seattle is a perfect 8-0 ATS at home in the first month of the season under Carroll, who is also 12-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since taking the job as the Seahawks head coach. Both teams enter relatively healthy, but the Packers will miss TE Brandon Bostick (leg) and DT B.J. Raji, who is on IR with a torn right biceps. For the Seahawks, RB Christine Michael (hamstring) is doubtful to suit up, while DE Bruce Irvin (hip) is questionable.

The Packers started off the season 5-2, but QB Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 9, which sent the team into a 2-5-1 spiral until he returned in Week 17 to win at Chicago and secure a playoff berth. Green Bay was also without starting WR Randall Cobb for 10 weeks of the season after he broke his leg in Week 6. But he too was able to return for that regular-season finale, scoring the game-winning touchdown in the game's final minute to send the Packers to the postseason. He is 100 percent healthy heading into 2014, and will be counted on to produce numbers like he did in 2012 when he caught 80 passes for 954 yards and 8 TD. But the injuries to Rodgers and Cobb forced the team to run the football more last year, and rookie RB Eddie Lacy delivered with 1,178 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in his rookie season, earning the trust of the players and coaches around him. With the Seahawks defense leading the NFL in passing defense last year (172 YPG), Lacy will get plenty of action on Thursday night. If the Packers are going to go anywhere this season, however, they must improve defensively. Last season, the team allowed 247.3 passing yards per game (24th in NFL) and 125.0 rushing yards per game (25th in NFL). The healthy return of OLB Clay Matthews (50 career sacks), who missed five games including the playoffs, and the addition of DE Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) will put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and help out a subpar secondary that picked off only 11 passes last year (T-26th in NFL). This is an offensive juggernaut when healthy, but the defense must do a good job of keeping Aaron Rodgers and company on the field.

Seattle ended the season on top of the football world, blowing out the Broncos by a final score of 43-8 in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks, however, still have more to prove, as they want to establish themselves as a dynasty before they fade away. QB Russell Wilson will have a much bigger opportunity to run this team in the 2014 season. Wilson threw for 3,357 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season, but the team may rely on the pass way more often. Top RB Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, but he’s 28 years old and a very physical runner. The Seattle coaches will likely look to reduce his workload going forward. Having a healthy top WR Percy Harvin will do wonders for this offense. Harvin couldn’t stay on the field all of last season due to a hip injury and a concussion, but he is a playmaker who can help his team in a number of different ways. In the Super Bowl, Harvin scored on a kick return to open the second half and also ran for 45 yards on just two carries. The Seahawks, however, win their games on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, they led the NFL in scoring defense (14.4 PPG), total defense (274 YPG), yards per play (4.42) and interceptions (28). While the "Legion of Boom" gets the most recognition on this defense with CB Richard Sherman and FS Earl Thomas, the front four is also stacked with talent like DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who combined for 16.5 sacks last season. This is a well-balanced team and they are very deep with guys who can come in and contribute.

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Red Sox offense non-existant for Workman
Justin Hartling

Brandon Workman has had little to no help from the Boston Red Sox offense. In Workman's last eight starts, the Red Sox are 0-8.

However, this should not be put on Workman who has held opponents to six hits and under four runs per game. During those eight starts, the Red Sox have scored an average of 3.2 runs per game and only broke the four run mark once.

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Peralta has been lights-out against Cardinals
Justin Hartling

Wily Peralta has been money against the St. Louis Cardinals in his career. In Peralta's last four starts against the Cardinals, his Milwaukee Brewers are 4-0 thanks in large part to him.

Peralta has given up a paltry 19 hits and six runs over those four stars.

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Cleveland like a second home to Scherzer
Justin Hartling

If there is one stadium Max Scherzer likes travelling to it is Progressive Field. Scherzer and his Detroit Tigers are 5-1 in his last six starts in Cleveland against the Indians.

Scherzer has given up 15 runs, but 48 percent of those runs came in one game allowing no more than two in his other five starts.

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Must read line update for Seahawks-Packers
Andrew Caley

We are now just hours away from the kickoff of the 2014 NFL season in Seattle where the Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers and the line continues to move back-and-forth between the NFC contenders.

The line has now moved back to the opening number of Seahawks -5.5 after the number sat at Seattle -6 for the last few days.

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Royals set for crucial road trip
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The upcoming road trip could determine the outcome of the Kansas City Royals' season.

First is a weekend visit to New York to face the Yankees, who remain in the hunt for a wild-card spot. Next, Kansas City travels to play the Detroit Tigers, who are in a dogfight with the Royals for the American League Central championship.

While the Yankees and Tigers have recent playoff experience, the Royals have not sniffed the playoffs since winning the 1985 World Series. Will Kansas City feel the pressure?

"There's always going to be pressing," Royals manager Ned Yost said Wednesday before the Royals completed a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers with a 4-1 win. "These guys want to do good. They want to win a championship. There's going to be a period where they are going to try too hard. It's just natural.

"You (must) stay focused on your task at hand today because if you don't, it kinda runs away from you, especially when you are in a tight race like we are. ...

"If you start thinking down the road if we don't win today and we don't win tomorrow and Detroit wins and the next thing you know we're four games (out). It's a lot of baggage you don't need to carry. Focus on winning this game today. That's all matters. Don't think about tomorrow. Don't think about the next day. Just think about what can we do to win this ballgame today, and it makes it easier."

Following the trip to New York and Detroit, the Royals return home for a 10-game homestand with the first seven games against the Boston Red Sox, a last-place club, and the Chicago White Sox, who are 12 games below .500, giving Kansas City a chance to make up ground if needed. The homestand ends with three games against Detroit.

"It's going to be exciting," Yost said. "It's going to be a tough road trip."

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Preview: Cardinals (75-63) at Brewers (72-66)


Game: 1
Venue: Miller Park
Date: September 04, 2014 8:10 PM EDT


Having gained an edge in the NL Central in the first few days of September, the St. Louis Cardinals now have a chance to expand it against the reeling Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cardinals will try to earn a season-high sixth consecutive win Thursday night in the first of four games at Miller Park, where the Brewers hope to have Ryan Braun back.

St. Louis (76-63) was tied for the division lead Sunday but heads to Milwaukee with a three-game cushion on the Brewers (73-66), who have lost a season-high eight straight.

Peter Bourjos hit a walk-off single Wednesday to keep the Cardinals' streak going with a 1-0 victory over Pittsburgh.

"We played good baseball (in Pittsburgh), but we have to keep going," catcher Yadier Molina told MLB's official website. "Milwaukee, I know they're not playing well right now, but they are a dangerous team. We have to be ready for them. They're hungry."

Milwaukee endured a 6-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night and was outscored 17-5 in the three-game sweep to the Central's last-place club. The Brewers have hit .211 and been outscored 55-16 during their longest skid since a nine-game dip May 10-19, 2010.

"I don't understand it," manager Ron Roenicke said. "We haven't pitched well. We haven't played good defense. We haven't been swinging the bat well, either."

Milwaukee played without Carlos Gomez, who could be out until the middle of this month with a sprained left wrist, while Braun was back home awaiting the birth of his first child. Braun's wife was reportedly in labor after Wednesday's loss, but Roenicke was unsure of the slugger's status for Thursday's opener to a season-high, 11-game homestand.

"(Labor) can last a while," Roenicke told MLB's official website. "So we'll see."

The Brewers will play seven games against the Cardinals over the next two weeks and visit St. Louis from Sept. 16-18.

The Cardinals have won seven of 12 meetings this season and took two of three Aug. 1-3 at Busch Stadium. They've also won 12 of their last 16 in Milwaukee and will try to earn another win while adding to Wily Peralta's woes.

The right-hander has given up a combined 14 runs in eight innings in back-to-back defeats after going 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA over the previous seven starts. He was charged with six runs in three innings, his shortest outing this season, in a 13-2 drubbing at San Francisco on Friday.

Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA), however, is 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts against St. Louis and has gone 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his three matchups this season. He gave up two runs in 6 2-3 innings in his most recent meeting, a 7-4 victory Aug. 1.

Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79) is expected to return from the disabled list in the start to an eight-game trip. The right-hander hasn't pitched for the Cardinals since a 5-2 win over the New York Mets on June 17 because of a stress reaction in his throwing shoulder.

Wacha did not get a decision in his only start against the Brewers, a 5-3 loss April 28. He gave up three runs in 6 1-3 innings and struck out nine. He's gone winless in his last nine road starts and has dropped five consecutive decisions there since earning a win in relief in an 8-5 victory against Milwaukee on Aug. 19, 2013.

The Cardinals, losers in 10 of 15 on the road, haven't won six in a row overall since the end of last season.

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | GREEN BAY at SEATTLE
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game
83-42 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% | 36.8 units )

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'NFL Kick-Off'

The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mariners on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.

The deficit is 413 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo’s roaring

It’s sweeps week for Hondo, who swept Monday, got swept Tuesday and then swept again Wednesday night as he cashed with the Yankees and Tigers to reduce the dirty digits to 1,655 berenguers. It’s also sweeps week for Hondo’s aged and mathematically challenged accountant, CP Addemup, who will be swept out of a job if he makes another double-C-note error as he did recently.

Thursday night: There will be no sweep for Mr. Aitch, who in his only investment expects a max effort from Scherzer against the Native Americans — 10 units on the Tigers.

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Cappers Access

Packers +5.5

Texas San Antonio +7

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Angels -120

Seattle -135

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VegasButcher

Green Bay Packers +6

I’ve made the case for the Packers in this game in my NFL Preview: VegasButcher's 2014 NFL Preview so I won’t go into too much detail in this analysis, but I will highlight a few things.

•Packer’s pass rush will be an issue for Seattle. Signing Peppers to start opposite of Matthews is a big factor here as Seattle’s O-line ranked dead-last in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Sure the line will be healthier but it’s still a major weakness for the Seahawks. Improved pass-rush by Green Bay will help control the line of scrimmage and I don’t see Seattle being as efficient offensively.

•Green Bay’s offense this year will be more dominant than at any point over the last few years. That’s saying a lot, but with the addition of Lacy and dominant run-blocking (5th in ALY) that Packers’ O-line displayed last season, I don’t see how this Packers team doesn’t improve offensively. An effective run-game will slow down Seattle’s pass-rush, will force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and will of course enable the Packers to control the clock in the 2nd half of the game if they have a lead. Rodgers is an absolute stud, but with an elite run-game (something he never had before), he’ll be a super-stud this year and that’s a scary thing.

•Regression is a fact not fiction. Seattle’s D played at a historically high level last season and though some might expect the same level of efficiency, it’s very unlikely. Regression will happen and I have a hard time seeing this Seattle D being just as good. Add in the fact that NFL is cracking down on holding, jamming past the 5 yard line, and just general contact with WR’s down the field, and it’s not so difficult to see that Seattle’s D will need to make some adjustments which might take some time. This could be a very critical factor in this game as Green Bay has an elite offense and could cause major issues for Seattle’s physical-style of play.

•Familiarity with Harvin. This one is not so obvious, but it’s a factor in Green Bay’s direction. Having faced Harvin for a number of years when he played with the Vikings, Packers are very familiar with his abilities. The guy missed a lot of time over the last few years, and teams within Seattle’s division might not have seen him before, making him possibly an even bigger weapon than he already is. But not so against the Packers who have a better shot of containing him than others.

•Scrap the SuperBowl from your memory. I’ve heard people say that Seattle will crush the Packers on Thursday, like they did to Denver in the SB. That’s a very dangerous approach to this game. Denver was decimated with injuries on defense in the SB last year and had virtually zero pass-rush in that game (Miller was injured, remember?). Packers will have a potentially scary pass-rush this season. Denver had Peyton Manning throwing passes, who is very accurate but lacks the mobility and arm-strength at this point of his career to get the ball down the field and in tight coverage against a dominant D. Seattle played Denver’s receivers very tight, put a lot of pressure on Manning, and the final results spoke for themselves. Well, Rodgers has a rocket, he is extremely mobile, but most importantly he’s not afraid to squeeze the ball into tight windows and actually is one of the better QB’s in placing the ball in the right spot for his receivers. The physical, tight coverage of Seattle’s secondary won’t be as big of a factor against Rodgers as it was against Manning in the SB. Besides, Denver had a banged up and used up Moreno running the ball for them in the SB. Packers will have a young, healthy bruiser in Lacy on Thursday.

I believe Green Bay will be one of the better teams in the league this year. They’ll have an elite offense and most importantly they should have a much better D than last season. This team lost @ San Fran by 6 last year, @ Cincy by 4, and against San Fran in the Wild Card game by 3, a game where neither Rodgers nor Cobb were necessarily at full strength (both just came back from serious injuries). That’s very impressive to me as both San Fran and Cincy had terrific defenses last season and played a similar ball-control/strong-D type of a game that Seattle likes to implement. This year, Green Bay will be flat-out better than last year and Seattle will regress a bit. I believe 6 points is way too much here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one fall to 5.5 and maybe even lower by tomorrow. Should be a great game but no way will this one be a blowout from my perspective. Grab the points and enjoy the start of the NFL season!

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Baseball Crusher

San Diego Padres -145 over Arizona Dbacks

Tampa Bay Rays -130 over Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles -143 over Cincy Reds
Detroit Tigers -127 over Cleveland Indians

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Soccer Crusher

Bahia + Internacional OVER 2

This match is happening in Conmebol

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WinBetNfl

NFL

Seattle Seahawks - Green Bay Packers

Under 48,5

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Today's MLB Picks Detroit at Cleveland The Indians look to follow up yesterday's 7-0 win over the Tigers and come into today's contest with a 5-0 record in Trevor Bauer's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Cleveland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.419; Milwaukee (Peralta) 12.954
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under


Game 953-954: Arizona at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 13.941; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.400
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Under


Game 955-956: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 15.807; NY Yankees (Capuano) 14.658
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Over


Game 957-958: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.662; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.995
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Over


Game 959-960: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 16.282; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under


Game 961-962: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 14.494; Texas (Ross) 15.555
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under


Game 963-964: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 16.477; Minnesota (Gibson) 14.920
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over


Game 965-966: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.834; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.332
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'NFL Kick-Off'

The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mariners on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.

The deficit is 413 sirignanos.

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Maddux Sports

NCAAF

10* Texas San Antonio +7

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EZWINNERS

4* Green Bay Packers +5.5

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James Jones

NFL

3* Green Bay Packers +6-110

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Totals 4 You

NFL

Over 46 1/2 Green Bay Packers/Seattle Seahawks

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Maddux Sports

NFL

10* Over 46 Green Bay Packers/Seattle Seahawks

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 47 - Packers/Seahawks
100* Tigers -130
50* Mariners -135

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CULP SPORTS

NFL 6 Team, 7 pt Teaser – 25 to win 175 (Ties win or reduce)
Packers +13 & OVER 40.5
Bengals +9
Titans +11.5
Texans +4.5
Broncos-pk & OVER 48

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CAPITAL SPORTS INVESTING

Green Bay at Seattle
When: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 4, 2014
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Under 46 points

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NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Indian Cowboy

Take #302 Texas San Antonio +7 over Arizona (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I will have five or six picks going this weekend for my rated service, but I wanted to get this one out there for everyone. If you wait, you can probably get 7.5 or even closer to 8 by game time as the public is noticeably heavy on Arizona. You can call me crazy but I actually believe Texas San Antonio is going to get Arizona absolute fits on Thursday Night Football. We would not be a bit surprised to see Texas San Antonio take an early half-time lead into this contest. Stop and think about as to why a Pac team would only be favored by a touchdown over a relative newcomer in Texas San Antonio on the national scene? It’s because Texas has and will always be a bed rock of talent, and this Texas San Antonio team is one of the best unknown teams in the country. They will be soon be known following this Primetime Thursday Night Contest. Note that these two teams played last year, with Arizona winning 38-13 at home and UTSA covered as a 25.5-point underdog, and now they find themselves as just a 7-point underdog at home a year later. With revenge, with Arizona coming off a big win and UTSA having 6 straight wins dating back to last year, look for this contest to be much closer than people expect, and I have UTSA falling within the touchdown spread here.

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NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take #461 Green Bay (+6) over Seattle (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I really hope you didn’t miss out on last week’s perfect 3-0, +$1,500 domination in college football. Now it is time for some NFL winners, including this Opening Night Play and my 7-Unit NFL Play on Sunday. I know, I know, Seattle is dominant at home. I also know that they are coming off a Super Bowl win, and that doesn’t bode well. Super Bowl champs have a ton of pressure on their shoulders as they try and repeat the success they had the previous season. Green Bay’s offense is strong enough to keep pace with that vaunted Seattle defense as Rodgers can control the air and Lacy can control the ground. I am not saying that Green Bay will win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Green Bay has won six of their last eight games versus Seattle, including five in Seattle. Take the road dog in this one as Green Bay will cover this line in an entertaining fashion.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

Wiseguy Action Report (CFB + NFL)

Welcome to another edition of Wise Guy Wednesday. This is my weekly rundown of where the early pro dough is going in both college football and the NFL. The info is gathered from various sources, including local, contacts I’ve got offshore, as well as stateside books outside of Nevada.

It’s always worth mentioning that early week line moves, even those that are the most significant in terms of variance from the true opener, are not automatically wise guy moves. There are a few notable services that release early selections, and absolutely create line movement in the process. Plus, there are games that draw the vast majority of the early action, enough so that the prices change, but are not considered pro plays. Comments are from the sources, as I try to leave my own opinions out of this rundown. Let’s go!

302 UTSA was a major pro mover in Week One and the Roadrunners blasted Houston. It looks as though they’re getting bought again, although it’s nowhere near as heavy as last time.

310 Iowa State is getting some tepid support, although the general consensus seems to be that this might be more maneuvering to influence the number and that Kansas State could get bought back late. The public will be on the Wildcats on game day.

325 Arkansas State is drawing some sharp action. Some brief elaboration here. The biggest difference between Pros and Joes is that the latter segment of the betting population only remembers the last thing they saw and reacts accordingly. Tennessee just mauled a Utah State team that drew a load of sharp money last week. The public now wants nothing to do with going against the Vols. The pros are never as easily convinced and they’re taking the road dog right now.

331 New Mexico State is mildly popular with the wise guys. But this is an ugly game with zero marquee appeal, so even a trickle of pro money is going to impact the line, which it already has.

339 USC is getting play, and I’m getting varying opinions on what this number will do as the week progresses. One of my east coast guys is convinced this will be Clemson/Georgia all over again and that after getting dog action throughout the week, he is adamant there’s going to be a late flood of sharp dollars on Stanford.

341 Akron got hit hard early and the line in their game with Penn State has been the biggest mover of the week. But note this might not be true pro money. Direct comment from one contact was “I knew we’d get all dog play early as everyone wants to play against Penn State off the long trip and that crazy finish. We’re not stupid. That’s already built into the line.”

352 Oregon took sharp action early. The consensus is that the squares will buy the dog here, and the pros are going to come back and take more Ducks later.

383 Air Force has already moved from dog to favorite and the expectation is that this number might keep going up. In other words, this is one of those if you snoozed, you lose games.

Moving to the NFL:

469 Jaguars figured to be an auto-play for the sharps as they always grab doubles if available in Week One.

478 Texans are looking like a popular pro side, although it’s not overwhelming.

479 Titans is clearly shaping up as the pros/joes battleground game of the week with the sharps hitting the dog in a big way. Opinion among my contacts is that the amateurs are going to bet on KC on game day.

484 Buccaneers is the other very hot pro choice to open the week, and Tampa Bay is also taking public money as well. Thus, there’s little value to be had on that matchup as that ship has already sailed, so to speak.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Raphael Esparza

Take ‘Under’ 56 – Arizona at Texas San Antonio (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I wanted to give this free total winner to start off a huge weekend for me that includes two 7-Unit Plays in the WNBA and College Football. Yes I know the Arizona Wildcats ran all over the UNLV defense, but the Roadrunners of UTSA are not UNLV! UTSA are coming off a big road upset win last weekend over Houston, and the Cougars didn’t score their first touchdown until late in the 4th quarter. UTSA had six takeaways in that game, and the Roadrunners are allowing 10.4 points per game in their last 5 games. If Arizona can spread the ball early and UTSA controls the line I see another low-scoring game and I see a very close game. I see Arizona squeaking this game out, but I don’t see Arizona scoring at will like they did last week against a weak UNLV defense. Texas San Antonio is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 nonconference games and a perfect 0-4 O/U following a SU win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

Teaser – 7 points – Ties reduce

PACKERS +12.5 / PACKERS SEAHAWKS – OVER 40 -120 *4* BEST BET

Do not be surprised if this Packers team goes into Seattle tonight and “shocks the world.” Green Bay wants to play a very fast paced offense this year as they are built to do just that and they may cause some problems for the league’s best defense. Green Bay will score – as long as they don’t get run all over by the tune of 35+ points, we expect this ticket this cash with ease.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hall of Fame/William Holloway

MLB
Baltimore ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

Millionaire - Seahawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

10* Play Green Bay +6 over Seattle (Top NFL Play)

Green Bay is 84-74 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
Green Bay is 32-20 ATS vs. NFC West Division Opponents
Green Bay is 63-53 ATS when playing as an underdog




10* Play Texas-San Antonio +7 over Arizona (Top NCAA Play)

Arizona is 47-75 ATS when playing as a favorite
Arizona is 31-42 ATS when playing in the month of September
Arizona is 42-68 ATS coming off a win against the spread in their last game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PowerPlayWins

Today's Power Plays Of The Day Are:

*Los Angeles Angels -120 (Santiago)

*Arizona -7 (NCAAF)

*Seattle Seahawks -6 (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):

A pointless 9th inning run by the D'backs put that game over the total late last night ruining a profitable night. Kyle helped out with a winner on his UNDER play. Four system picks tonight.

2 UNIT = Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians - INDIANS TO WIN (+135)
Listed Pitchers: Scherzer vs Bauer
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.70 units)

2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (+121)
Listed Pitchers: Buehrle vs Odorizzi
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.42 units)

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles - ORIOLES -1.5 (+140)

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles - UNDER 8 RUNS (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Leake vs Tillman
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play Seattle -130 over Texas (TOP MLB PLAY)

Texas has lost 40 of the last 60 games after having lost five or six of the last seven games and they have lost 25 of the last 31 home games when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher.Texas has lost 36 of the last 52 games when batting .250 or worse over the last twenty games and they have lost 35 of the last 57 games vs. division opponents.

================================================== ===

50* Play Tampa Bay -130 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees -140 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

THURSDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Green Bay +6 over Seattle (TOP NFL PLAY)

Seattle has lost 29 of the last 50 home games against the spread when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and they have lost 7 of the last 10 games vs. Green Bay.


5000* Play UT-San Antonio +7 over Arizona (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Arizona has lost 43 of the last 78 games against the spread coming off a home win in their last game and they have lost 65 of the last 123 games against the spread when playing in the 1st half of the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY

TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY



Play Green Bay +6 over Seattle----Top Play (Risk 20% of your Bankroll)

8:30 PM EST

Seattle has lost 20 of the last 37 games against the spread vs. NFC South Division Opponents and they have lost 84 of the last 154 games against the spread when playing in the 1st half of the season.=

================================================== ===========


TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY



Play Texas-San Antonio +7 over Arizona----Top Play (Risk 20% of your Bankroll)

8:00 PM EST

Arizona has lost 55 of the last 93 games against the spread coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have lost 48 of the last 88 non-conference games against the spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL




Play New York Yankees -140 over Boston----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

7:10 PM EST

Brandon Workman has lost 9 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has won 8 of the last 9 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Brandon Workman has lost 5 of the last 6 games when pitching with seven or more days of rest and he is 0-3 over the last three starts with an ERA of 7.47.





Play Baltimore -140 over Cincinnati---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
7:10 PM EST


Chris Tillman has won 20 of the last 25 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 35 of the last 56 home games. Chris Tillman has won 27 of the last 43 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 0.90.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Yankees -140 over Boston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Brandon Workman is 2-9 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
Brandon Workman is 1-8 when pitching in the 2nd half of the season
Brandon Workman is 1-5 when pitching with 7 or more days of rest



10* Play Baltimore -140 over Cincinnati (MLB TOP PLAY)

Chris Tillman is 20-5 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Chris Tillman is 35-21 in home games the last thee seasons
Chris Tillman is 27-16 when pitching in the 2nd half of the season

=============================================

5* Play Detroit -120 over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Seattle -130 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence upset of week

UTSA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vip-picks

Exclusive VIP Tips
France - Spain
Tip: Spain +0, 0.5

Super VIP Tips
Berdych - Cilic
Tip: Berdych -3.5games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SOOCER BETTING MASTERS

World » Club Friendly » Bayer Leverkusen vs. St. Pauli

Opinion: Bayer Leverkusen to win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Arizona - 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks

UTSA +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

ANGELS ML + ANGELS/TWINS – OVER 8.5 +243 *2*

Gibson’s last 4 home starts have been awful to say the least. Over these 4 starts he is 0-3, has pitched a total of 18.1 innings, allowed 21 earned runs (10.35 ERA), allowed 31 hits and 7 walks! He faced the Angels in LA on June 24th where lasted just 2 innings allowing 7 earned runs! Does not look good for Kyle Gibson here tonight.

BLUE JAYS ML + BLUE JAYS/RAYS – OVER 7 +289 *2*

Jays have turned it on wining 4 straight with their offense looking good while doing it. The Rays have now dropped 7 of 10 allowing almost 5 runs per game in that span. Both Buerhle and Odorizzi have struggled of late with ERAs in the 5s over their past 3 starts. Both teams L5 and L10 are seeing 7.6 runs per game or higher.

CARDINALS ML + CARDINALS/BREWERS – OVER 8 +235 *2*

These are 2 teams going in opposite directions. The Cards have won 5 straight and the Brewers have lost 8 in a row. The Cards have also won 5 of their last 7 meetings vs the Brewers this year. The Gomez injury hurts the Brewers even more. The Brewers are a must fade right now and Peralta has looked terrible his last 2 starts. In 8 innings pitched over his last 2 starts he has given up 13 earned runs and 16 hits. We like the over here as well because we’re not sure Wacha will be able to bring his A-game coming off injury.

[golden contender]

Thursday football: 20-0 Opening Week NFL Power system + 18-2 College Football system. In MLB Its the 92% MLB TOTALS System of the Week. Football on an 8-1 run. Free Live Dog MLB System Play below.


On Thursday the Free MLB Live dog with Bite system side is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 964 at 8:10 eastern. The Angels have dropped the last 2 struggling in Houston losing last night 4-1, while the Twins were blasting the Whitesox. We want To play against road teams like the Angels that are off a road favored loss and had 4 or less hits, that are playing an opponent off a home favored win. These teams are 1-14 straight up since 2004 and 0-10 if the home team won by 2 or more runs. They are 0-6 when favored like the Angles are tonight. The Twins will get a solid start from Gibson tonight and will look to take advantage of LA Lefty Santiago who has lost 7 of 9 on the road and has allowed 8 runs in 11 innings here. With Minnesota 11-2 at home off a home win by 5 or more runs where they scored 10 or more runs. We will back the Dog and Take Minnesota. NFL Takes center stage on Thursday and we have a Powerful 20-0 system in this game. In College Football were on an 8-1 run and have a Powerful 18-2 Early season system on the menu. Don't forget bases. We are Tearing up the Totals cashing again on Wednesday. Tonight its the 92% MLB Totals of the week system. Message to Jump on now and get this Tremendous 3 game power pack and flatten your book like a short Stack at IHOP,With the Most powerful data in the Industry. For the free MLB Play take the Minnesota Twins. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stevewins


Arizona -6 (Buy the point)
5*****


Seattle -5 (Buy the hook)
5*****

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

2* UTSA +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbah

Seattle/Texas Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From THE PLATINUM SHEET

GREEN BAY (461) at SEATTLE (462)
Latest Line: Seahawks -5.5; Total: 47.5

The defending Super Bowl Champions will run early and often and lean on their smothering defense. QB Russell Wilson makes a big impact in limited chances, and if WR Percy Harvin stays healthy, he’ll be the best passing-game weapon Seattle has had in a long time. The Packers will compete for the NFC title if QB Aaron Rodgers stays healthy. RB Eddie Lacy is an emerging star, and plenty of talent remains in Green Bay's receiving corps. LB Clay Matthews and new DE Julius Peppers should be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks, though the Packers' gambling secondary is prone to allowing big plays.

StatFox Trends Six Pack:
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS in all lined games since the start of the 2012 season.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS against conference opponents since the start of the 2012 season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2012 season.
GREEN BAY is 58-37 OVER in games played on turf since 1992.
Mike McCarthy is 40-27 ATS in road lined games as coach of GREEN BAY.
Mike McCarthy is 13-5 OVER against NFC West division opponents as coach of GREEN BAY.

FORECASTER: Seattle 31, Green Bay 16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HARRY BONDI

College Football Free Play

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (+7) over Arizona
8 p.m. ET

Texas San Antonio is fairly new to the Division I scene but this is one of the most experienced rosters in college football, with 21 returning starters and more seniors (37) than most programs have in two seasons. Head Coach Larry Coker, who won a national championship at Miami, has instilled a physical and nasty style of play and that was clearly evident last week, especially on defense, when the Roadrunners (+10) shutdown Houston in a 27-7 victory. That was a against a Houston offense that averaged more than 30 points per game last season. Arizona steamrolled UNLV last week but we’re not comfortable laying a TD on the road here with a redshirt freshman at QB against a veteran defense. Texas San Antonio is a profitable 15-7 ATS the last three years, including 5-1 in September. This is an overlay. Take the home dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE REAL ANIMAL SPORTS

Free plays 3-0 last week. Tonight 2* UTSA +7:

The line value has diminished greatly tonight with UTSA only +7. A year ago they were +24 ½ in Tucson and lost 38-13. Certainly catching six turnovers contributed to the upset win at Houston, spoiling the new stadium opener for the Cougars. But the Roadrunners have 37 seniors and 10 returning starters on defense, a unit that is allowing just 10.4 points per game in their last five. Plus we catch Arizona freshman QB Anu Solomon making his road debut. Last week he posted 425 passing yards and four touchdowns on the way to a school-record 787 total yards against UNLV. But Arizona last year won at UNLV 58-13 (same score as last week) and then proceeded to only win at Cal by five points and lost at Washington by 18 and Arizona State by 37. UTSA has won six straight. Arizona is just 4-6 SU in their last 10 on the road and their only wins last year came against bottom-feeders UNLV, Colorado, and Cal. Coach Rodriguez is only 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in his 12 road openers. Meanwhile Coach Coker is 16-8 ATS as an underdog in his career. Arizona’s front seven is extremely small by Pac-12 standards and UTSA loves to run the football. UTSA had a 40:22-22:14 advantage over Houston with the clock and held the cougars to just 208 total yards of offense including -26 on the ground! While UTSA lost by 25 at Arizona last year they were only out-gained by 43 total yards. Curiously, the Wildcats are 3-14 ATS on the road after outgaining their last opponent by 225 yards or more. Note that UTSA was in revenge last week after losing to Houston 59-28. This team is vastly improved. Grab the points with the Roadrunners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Green Bay vs. Seattle - September 4, 2014 - 8:30 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) @ Under 46 -110
Evaluation: Sep 4 - 8:30 PM

Reason For Pick:
I'm playing Green Bay and Seattle UNDER the total. This is a very good opening night game. It's a rematch of the famous "Fail Mary" game on Monday Night Football two years ago and could end up being a preview of this year's NFC Championship Game. Though it's "only" opening night, I anticipate a "playoff-like intensity" and a lower-scoring game than most are expecting.
When these teams met that fateful Monday night two years ago, it was a very low-scoring affair. It was a 14-12 game and that's including the winning score, which should not have counted. The key for Seattle (other than the replacement refs) was sacking Aaron Rodgers eight times. The Seahawks pass rush may very well not be that dominant this time, but the secondary is now the best in the league and overall the defense is better.
By now, you're familiar with many of the names on this Seattle defense which led the team to a win in Super Bowl 48. All the key players, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas chief among them, are back having been re-signed. At home is where this group really shined a year ago. They allowed just 14.2 points per game at Century Link, holding the likes of New Orleans to just seven points and San Francisco only three. Both of those were night games by the way.
So to expect Rodgers and the Packers offense to come in here and put a significant number of points on the board would be unwise. Not only is the Under 7-0 in Seattle's last seven conference games, but it's 5-0 their last five home games. All four of Green Bay's September games went Over last year. That's not likely to happen again.
The public, which tends to love Overs, has predictably bet this number up a couple points already. That signals value in going the other direction right away.
Seattle opened last season with a 12-7 win. That was on the road, but also one of four games they failed to score more than 17 points.
There were only three games all year where the Seahawks allowed more than 20 points in 2013. Only three of their games featured a total higher than this one. Two of them went Under. The other was the Super Bowl.
If Seattle gets an early lead, look for them not to take a lot of chances and play ball control on offense. 9* main event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Locksmith Sports

NFL
2* Seattle -6 (-105)

MLB
1* Red Sox +130
1* Tigers -134

CFB
1* Texas San Antonio +7 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin's HUGE 25* CFB THURS GAME OF THE YEAR!! Arizona Wildcats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang
40 DIME

DOUBLE YOUR WAGER

MONEY MOVE

Green Bay Packers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
5* Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee lost in tennis at Flushing Meadows in the US Open on Wednesday with Stan Wawrinka -$170/Kei Nishikori.

Ben lee won in MLB in the American League on Wednesday with the Royals -$178/Rangers.

For Thursday in the NFL E&B like the Seahawks -6/Packers.

"Mr Chalk" has Np for Thursday.

Ben lee is 2-2 -$62 for week forty five 204-230-5 -$2849 through Forty Four Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 73-52 -$278 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Thursday Night MLB Team Total

DETROIT TIGERS – OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

2* UTSA +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 0-12 since May 05, 2013 after playing as a favorite of more than -110 when it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1642 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Max Scherzer starts the Tigers are 12-0 since May 30, 2010 as a favorite against an AL foe after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1200.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Reds are 8-1 (+$1,128) since June 19, 2007 as a 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led.

CHOICE TREND:

The Orioles are 10-0 since May 2006 as a 140+ favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 12-2 since June 04, 2013 after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1115.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

10* Green Bay +6

8* Detroit -134

7* Reds/ Orioles UNDER 8 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Wynn

Arizona/ UTSA UNDER 56

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

NFL

200 under GB/Sea

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LineCatchers

What an intriguing match up we have to open the 2014 NFL Season, the Green Bay Packers on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. I really like the Packers in this spot on Thursday night for several reasons.

The new enforcement of contact in the secondary will not affect any team more than the Seahawks and their “Legion of Boom” defense. In my view, the officials will want to make ALL teams aware of just how serious they are in protecting receivers from hard hits. Aaron Rogers is the best QB on the planet and with a deep WR core which the Packers now possess, I really do believe that we will see this Seattle team tested to its full capacity tonight.

Seattle at home have been an automatic wager over the last 3 years and I’m certain they will be one of the top teams in the NFC this year once more. All the talk about the ‘Legion of Boom’ has over shadowed the fact that they have lost their number 1 WR and target for Russell Wilson in Golden Tate who signed with the Lions. Tate led Seattle with 64 catches, 898 receiving yards and 5 TD catches. He also had 520 yards after catching the football, a threat which this Seahawk offense no longer carries down the field.

Over the last three seasons, Green Bay are 32-7 in Regular Season play with Rogers starting under centre and of those seven defeats, six of them were by an average of just 4.5 points. I like the packers to keep this game very close and maybe win this game outright. It is very unlikely that we will see the Packers listed as six point dogs for the remainder of the season as long as Rogers stays healthy.

Green Bay Packers + 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson

Best Bet Over Tigers/Indians

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Detroit Tigers -133 over the Cleveland Indians (Bet Level 2) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:05 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFFREY JAMES

Play of the Day

#961 Seattle Mariners with Elias Moneyline -130 (8:05 edt)
The Rangers are so easy to pick on since they are just so awful especially at home where they are 24-40. They are not that great against lefties either. Seattle is very strong on the road at 38-27 and Elias has been effective against Texas with an ERA of 2.60 in 3 lifetime starts against them. Take the motivated team with the better starter here at this low favorite price as the play of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS (NFL Props)

4* Aaron Rogers total completions Under 24
4* Aaron Rogers total passing yards Under 270.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

15 Texas San-Antonio
25 Green Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R. Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB: (964) Minnesota +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

2* packers/seahawks Over
1* Arizona-pts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

top dog
under padres

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER PRO PICKS

Seattle Seahawks -5.5

Over - Arizona vs UTSA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PortPortSports

2 UNITS ARIZONA WILDCATS (-7)

2 UNITS OVER 54.5 AZ WILDCATS @ UTSA ROADRUNNERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LJ CONSULTING COACH

Arizona -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win NFL Week 1 Comp:

1* GAME / 2-TEAM TEASER: GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE: Seahawks +0.5 & u52.5 - TBD (TBDu)

CFB Week 2 Comp:

1* GAME / 2-TEAM TEASER: GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE: Seahawks +0.5 & u52.5 - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bones best bet

texas san antonio +7 -105 *2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

St. Louis -105

Wacha/Peralta
The Brewers have been struggling big time as they now are on a official brutal losing streak. If they can snap out of it at even money against a top notch pitcher in Wacha then so be it. Until then the prove nothing and at this price there is tremendous value fading them. Take St. Louis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

NFL
Green Bay +6 -108 over SEATTLE

MLB
MINNESOTA +113 over L.A. Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK

Seahawks -5.5

U Tx-Sanantonio +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

Tampa Bay -125 RLCrew 400.00

Green Bay +6 NFAC 400.00
Over 46.5 GB/SEA NFAC 400.00

CFB Move = 301) OVER 55 – ARZ/TSAU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exodus to Black

TB -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Cincinnati under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

1461 Over 23.5 gb-Sea (1st H)
1461 Green Bay +3 (-115) (1st H)
1301 Over 27.5 Arz-Utsa (1st H)
1301 Arizona -4 (1st H)
301 Over 55 Arz-Utsa
301 Arizona -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Coast

Top Opinion: Packers Under; Arizona Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

#962: Rangers: +120 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Elias/Baker

#951/952: Cardinals/Brewers: Over 8.0 (+100) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Wacha/Peralta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Real Swoop

Texas SA +8
Seahawks -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray dunavant

Arizona Wildcats -7.5
Seattle Seahawks -5.5
Mil Brewers/ Stl Cards u8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

NFL

#461/462: Packers/Seahawks: Under 47.5 (-110) (0.5*)

NCAA FB

#302: Texas San Antonio: +7.0 (+100) (0.5*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN NOVER

3* NFL THURSDAY TOTALS DOMINATOR

Green Bay vs Seattle – Over 45.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC DOOLEY

2 Units Blue Jays +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Brazil » Copa do Brasil » Atletico-MG – Palmeiras

Opinion: Atletico MG to win

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OMEGA SPORTS PICKS

MLB —DET -125 .75u

NFL:

2 Team Teaser – 6 points -110

2.2 to win 2 Units

Seattle +.5/Broncos -1.5

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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

Detroit Tigers ML

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Esquire picks

Green bay Packers +6 ($500) MEDIUM NFL PICK OF THE WEEK

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Cajun Sports Wire

4* Texas SA +7.5

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MTI Sports

3* Green Bay/Seattle over 47.5

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Stevewins Added

Seattle -3 1st Half
3***
Arizona -4 1st Half
3***

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Marco/Sports Unlimited

Seattle

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Chris James Sports


6-3 YTD NCAAF


UTSA +9
Packers +6

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mike davis

7 - Seattle

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Pred. Machine: NFL


for what it's worth:


no normal plays tonight, he has the game Seattle 28- GB 21

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JOE D
25* UTSA