9-7-14

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::clap::

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 11
By David Schwab
VegasInsider

The Labor Day Weekend featured four division matchups in the CFL starting last Friday with Montreal doubling-up Ottawa 20-10 as a 4½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 45½-point closing line. Sunday’s action featured Game 1 of a home-and-home series between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan with the Roughriders carving-out the early edge in a thrilling 35-30 shootout as 7½-point home favorite. The total went OVER the 48 ½-point line.

Monday’s holiday double-header started off with Hamilton squeezing past Toronto 13-12 as three-point home favorite with the total staying well UNDER the 52-point line. Calgary got the early edge in its home-and-home series against Edmonton with a 28-13 victory as a 4½-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER the 49½-point closing line.

Sunday, Sept. 7

Hamilton (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Montreal (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Point-spread: PICK
Total: 45½

Game Overview

Hamilton closed the gap for the lead in the East to just one game with last week’s SU win, but it comes into this matchup with a 0-4 mark ATS in its last four games after starting the season 3-1 ATS. Quarterback Zach Collaros returned to the starting lineup against Toronto and threw for 317 yards while completing 71 percent of his 38 attempts.

The Alouettes scored 20 points or more for just the fourth time in their first nine games. Jonathan Crompton was behind center in that game and he completed 15-of-25 attempts for 245 yards. Brandon Whitaker rushed for 100 yards and Duron Carter caught five passes for 127 yards in the winning cause.

Betting Trends

This will be the first meeting this season, but the home team in this matchup has won the last seven meetings SU with Montreal covering the spread in the last four. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in Montreal.

Saskatchewan (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Winnipeg (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS)

Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3
Total: 51

Game Overview

The Roughriders victory this past Sunday was their sixth straight since a 1-2 SU start and they have now scored 35 point or more in three of those games. Darian Durant is still having consistency issues throwing the ball with a completion rate of 53.8 percent in last week’s win, but did a great job of spreading the ball around with sixth different players posting at least one catch.

Winnipeg faces its first must-win test of the season to keep pace in the West Division title race. The Blue Bombers have now lost three of their last four games SU with a 2-2 record ATS. Defense has been a bit suspect lately after allowing an average of 32 points in those three setbacks.

Betting Trends

Saskatchewan has won both meetings this season SU and it is now 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. It is 5-3 ATS over the same stretch of games and while the total went OVER last week, it has actually stayed UNDER in three of the previous four meetings.

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StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at ST LOUIS
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points terrible passing defense from last season - allowed 255 or more passing yards/game 23-5 over the last 10 seasons. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, versus division opponents 31-11 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )

JACKSONVILLE at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (JACKSONVILLE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year 47-19 since 1997. ( 71.2% | 26.1 units )

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EZWINNERS

5* Tampa Bay Bucs +2
4* Washington Redskins +3
3* Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5
3* Miami Dolphins +4.5
3* Dallas Cowboys +6
3* Atlanta Falcons +3
3* Baltimore Ravens -1.5

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Andre Ramirez

49ers -210

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Ray dunavant

Browns/steelers over 41

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Maddux Sports

NFL

10* Baltimore -1.5

10* Tampa Bay +1.5

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Dave Cokin

Bears -6.5

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Sheep

NFL

476 Under 49 Buf-Chi $1000
474 Under 43.5 Cin-Bal **
468 Pittsburg -6.5
465 Minnesota +4

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PHILLYGODFATHER

(479) Tennessee +5

(463) New Orleans ML

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Esquire picks

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 ($100) SMALL NFL PICK OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -7.5 ($2,000) TOP NFL PICK OF THE WEEK

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Chicago at Phoenix

The Mercury open up the WNBA Finals on Sunday against a Chicago team that is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference opponents. Phoenix is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (9/5)


Game 601-602: Chicago at Phoenix (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.498; Phoenix 123.068
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2); Over

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NFL

Week 1

Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits here, with last four wins by 4 or less points. NO covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten AFC South road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- its been four years since they won a divisional road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 vs. spread in NFC South home games under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.

Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes vs. veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at DC this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota HC; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two games with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers LY, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.

Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits here, last six by 11+ points- they scored two TD’s on 24 drives in two games vs. Pitt LY, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started LY; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 SU in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three years, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.

Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philly is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jags won 13-6 here in ‘06, their only visit to Linc. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jags lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jax is 5-15 vs. spread in last 20 games vs. NFC teams; Iggles are 7-13 in their last 20 vs AFC squads. Over last five years, Week 1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for TD, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland LY, Raiders 4th loss in row here, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series games. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. Gang Green won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 vs. spread in last 21 home openers, but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.

Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive TD’s on 29 drives vs Bengals LY, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings LY, but now Cincy has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as OC for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series games; Bengals lost last four visits here, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Cincy started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.

Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup QB Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in ‘06. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in ‘10. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 vs. spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since ‘07, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites, 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games vs. AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 vs. spread vs. NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.

Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current QB Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 vs. spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since ‘09, Texans are 5-12-3 vs. spread when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites LY, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant in ‘06; Texans won in OT in last series meeting, in ‘10. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.

Titans @ Chiefs-- Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 vs. spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers LY, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since ‘07, KC is 5-19-1 vs. spread as home fave; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 vs. spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2 in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee LY, scoring TD on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.

Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Pats played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series games, upsetting Pats 24-20 (+1) in Week 15 LY; NE won five of last seven visits here, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Patriots won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 vs. spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 vs spread in division games the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Fish’ last five home openers went over total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at HC for Bucs, who had only one TD on 20 drives vs. Carolina LY, with three TO’s, eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Bucs 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits here. Bucs covered three of last four games as home dog in HO’s; they’re 5-4 SU in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.

49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since ‘88, they’re 5-3 SU when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such game was in ‘02. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series games by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since ‘11, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 vs spread on carpet under Harbaugh.

Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 LY before losing 39-33 at Indy in Week 7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four TD’s was on drive longer than 50 yards. Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.

Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games LY, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread in Week 1 last eight years. Why did these teams meet in preseason LAST WEEK?

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Colin Coherd's Blazing Five

Titans +3 (TN 24-20)
Saints -3 (NO 30-24)
Buccaneers -2.5 (TB 23-17)
Chargers +3 (SD 27-23)
Ravens -1 (BALT 24-20)

Picks are in order of strongest to weakest, so TN is strongest play.

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purelock sfran-4-

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
•Rams Work Out Free Agent Linebackers: Looking to bolster their defense, the St. Louis Rams worked out two free agent linebackers on Friday. Former Atlanta Falcons linebacker Pat Angerer's resume includes 39 starts in 54 career games. He would provide depth at the middle or weak-side position. Angerer was signed by the Atlanta Falcons in July, but released last week. Former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Kelvin Sheppard was released last weekend. He spent the entire 2013 season with the Colts, but has prior experience with the Buffalo Bills. Sheppard has started 31 games in his career. Among the Rams final cuts was rookie Michael Sam, who was signed to the Dallas Cowboys practice squad this week. Sam was a seventh-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Missouri who thrust himself into the spotlight after becoming the first NFL player to openly say he's gay.

•49ers' McDonald Expected To Play Sunday: Defensive tackle Ray McDonald will play for the San Francisco 49ers in their opener on Sunday despite his arrest a week ago for domestic violence. "As it stands now, yes," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said when asked whether McDonald would be in action against the Dallas Cowboys. "Two principles are woven together here. I feel like the way the facts are and what's known that he has the liberty to play in the game." McDonald practiced with the team throughout the week. No charges have been filed against McDonald. He posted $25,000 bail on Sunday afternoon. Any discipline would be handled by the team and not through the league, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke said this week. The NFL announced a new policy last week on domestic violence. Anyone found guilty of domestic violence is suspended for six games for a first offense and receives a lifetime ban for a second offense.

•New Drug Policy Could Affect Welker, Gordon Suspensions: Wes Welker and Josh Gordon are two of a handful of suspended players closely watching to see if the NFL and the players' union are able to strike a deal to modify the league's drug policy in the next 48 hours. If a new policy is agreed upon, those players' suspensions could be reduce or overturned, according to multiple reports. In a radio interview Friday, NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith said if the new policy is approved, players who have been recently suspended under the old rules should have their sanctions revised or revoked.

"If we get a deal done that covers players in this league year, I don't like that we punish players under a deal active in the old league year," Smith told 106.7 The Fan in Washington. "We don't want players to suffer because the union and the league couldn't get it done before the league year." Two sources close to the negotiations told The Washington Post that an agreement on a new drug policy probably would have to be completed before Sunday's games are played for Gordon and Welker to have their suspensions modified. Talks between the league and the union have focused on adding blood-testing for human growth hormone, as well as other changes to other aspects of the league's drug policies.

The two sides have been discussing modifying the threshold for what would constitute a positive test for marijuana, The Post reported. Gordon's suspension, according to reports, resulted from a positive test for marijuana in which one of the two urine samples taken from him was barely above the current level for a positive test; the other was below it. According to the NFL Network, the union and the league are considering a plan to modify the strict NFL threshold to match that of the military and Major League Baseball, which is more stringent than the Olympics' threshold.

Another policy change involves amphetamine tests. A positive test would no longer fall under performance-enhancing drug policy, but under substance-abuse policy. A positive test during the offseason would not necessarily result in a suspension. According to reports, Welker tested positive for amphetamines during the offseason. Another issue could affect Gordon. Sources say the league would like to immediately discipline players who are arrested for DWI, without going through due process. Gordon was charged with DWI on July 5 in North Carolina. He is scheduled to appear in court on that charge in November. Other players who might be affected by the changes include Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick.

Scandrick, one of the Cowboys' top defenders, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. He tested positive early in the preseason for amphetamines. Similar to Welker, under the new rules he possibly would avoid a suspension. Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson could also see a reduction of his four-game suspension. Neither the Eagles nor Johnson have said what led to the suspension. The Indianapolis Colts' Robert Mathis, who led the league with 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles last season, also will be watching to see if his suspension from violating the league's substance-abuse policy will be affected.

•Packers Lacy Has Concussion; Bulaga Sprains MCL: The Green Bay Packers confirmed that running back Eddie Lacy sustained a concussion during Thursday night's 36-16 season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Late Friday, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the second-year running back had passed the first step of the NFL’s concussion protocol. Lacy, according to a league source, said he is optimistic he will be cleared to play in Green Bay's next game on Sept. 14 against the New York Jets. Earlier Friday, the Packers said starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga suffered a sprained MCL to his left knee in the second quarter. McCarthy was unsure how much, if any, time Bulaga would miss.

He injured the same knee in training camp last summer, and missed the 2013 season after ACL reconstruction. He was playing in his first game since November 2012 and was wearing a brace on the knee. Lacy, a second-year player, departed in the second half after picking up 34 yards on 12 carries. He left the locker room wearing sunglasses but could not talk to reporters per the NFL's concussion policy. Lacy on Thursday night wore a new Riddell helmet called the SpeedFlex, which the company says helps better absorb impact force by adding flexibility to certain parts of the helmet, according to ESPN.com.

Some players are wearing the helmet, especially those who previously had concussions. It will hit the general retail market Oct. 1. Bulaga was hurt when he collided with tight end Richard Rodgers after Lacy cut back for a 3-yard gain. After remaining on the turf for several minutes, Bulaga limped to the sideline and later left for the locker room. He was replaced by backup Derek Sherrod. Bulaga missed all of the 2013 season after tearing an ACL during a preseason scrimmage and had his 2012 season cut short with a hip injury. The Packers' offensive line came into the opener already missing injured starting center J.C. Tretter. Rookie Corey Linsley took Tretter's place.

•Brady, Gronkowski Listed As Questionable: New England listed quarterback Tom Brady, as well as tight end Rob Grankowski, as questionable on Friday as the Patriots prepare for Sunday's season opener at Miami. Brady said he will be "ready to go" despite a calf injury. He returned to practice on Friday, stretching and jogging in warm-ups during the open media portion of practice. "Physically I had the day off, but I got a lot of extra film in," Brady said in an interview with Westwood One Sports radio on Thursday night. "I got a lot of mental reps in and walk-throughs and such... and I'll be ready to go Sunday. "Anything can happen for anybody between now and then, but I'm looking forward to playing Sunday."

According to the NFL’s standards, a player listed as questionable has a 50-50 chance of playing. The Patriots travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. Brady's backup, rookie second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, took the first-team snaps Thursday. Coach Bill Belichick shed no more light on Brady's injury when asked about it Friday. "We have done what we are required to do," Belichick said. "We have listed the injury. We will continue to list it. We'll list his status based on what the requirements of the league are. "Jimmy (Garoppolo) steps in and does it. It's no different than any other position or anything we've done before there." Brady has been durable during most of his career. He has started all 16 Patriots regular-season game in 11 of the past 12 seasons. In 2008, he was hurt in Week 1 and lost for year. The Patriots also re-signed quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson to the practice squad Thursday.
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Biggest Betting Mismatches Week #1
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the National Football League's 2014-15 campaign, StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo will break down some of the underlying mismatches on the schedule, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the card. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week #1. "Until next week, as always enjoy and the very best of luck" -Jude!

•New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+3, Over/Under 51.5)
Saints’ Rushing Attack vs. Falcons’ Run Defense

When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.

You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the National Football League. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ running-backs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.

•Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3, Over/Under 43)
Vikings’ New Defense vs. Rams’ Offensive Line

The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week #1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.

That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

•Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (-6.5, Over/Under 47.5)
Bills’ Short Secondary vs. Bears’ Big Receivers

The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons tight-ends Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching running-back Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and the Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason. "(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.

•Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5, Over/Under 55.5)
Colts’ Denver Domination vs. Broncos’ Kicker Conundrum

This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).

The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.

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"Remember, don't make a move without it, You'll be glad you did" Stan!
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Need-To-Know Facts For All 32 Teams
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor

Everyone knows Christmas Day is December 25th, but for National Football League fans and bettors alike, it's really the first Sunday of the new football season. If you're still up in the air about your Week #1 wagers, we've got you covered here at StatSystemsSports.net. Here's a comprehensive look at the season forecast for every NFL team.

AFC East

•New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.

•Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.

•Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.

•New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.

AFC North

•Cincinnati Bengals (2013: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - The quarterback rating for Dalton is still not great as his 88.8 rating was 15th among qualified leaders last year. He has a lot of weapons, although the loss of receiver Marvin Jones for the few three games at least will hurt. The division as whole should be tougher after Baltimore and Pittsburgh took a step back last season. The schedule is a challenge with trips to New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and visits from Atlanta and Denver.

•Pittsburgh Steelers (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons, so there will be plenty of motivation to turn things around. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed 28 touchdowns, his most since 2007, but he also threw 14 interceptions. He should have better protection and the additions of Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should help improve his numbers this year. The toughest road games outside of the division are at Carolina and Atlanta.

•Baltimore Ravens (2013: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Flacco had his worse passer rating in his six-year career as he tossed a career-high 22 picks last season. While a rebound should be expected, the only addition to his receiving corps was Steve Smith, who is arguably past his prime. Like the Steelers, the defense is old and an improvement seems unlikely. The Ravens went 2-6 on the highway last year and the road slate this year is even tougher.

•Cleveland Browns (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - There’s a renewed energy in Cleveland with the hiring of Mike Pettine as head coach after Rob Chudzinski was fired after just one season. Drafting Johnny Manziel was a risk that could pay off right away. The Browns defense has taken a step back in points allowed the last two years but it is still an above average unit and should improve this year. While the schedule isn't a cakewalk, it’s the easiest in the AFC North.

AFC South

•Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) - Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.

•Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS) - Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.

•Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS) - The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.

•Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) - If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.

AFC West

•Denver Broncos (2013: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - At the age of 38, just two years after a potential career ending neck injury, Peyton Manning may be just one hit away from retirement. An injury to Manning would likely be devastating for the Broncos, who don’t have an experienced backup. Manning isn’t the only veteran that could be considered an injury risk, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are both coming off injuries, Ware is 32 years old and Miller has yet to play this preseason.

•Kansas City Chiefs (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The offense will depend heavily on the run, but that should be a good thing with Jamaal Charles carrying the load. Charles is a dual threat, with a dozen rushing TDs and seven TD receptions last season. He ran for 1,287 yards and added 70 catches for 693 yards in the air. Alex Smith was just one of 10 Chiefs to go to the Pro Bowl and he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.

•San Diego Chargers (2013: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The loss of offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt could hurt Phillip Rivers' chances of repeating his breakout performance last season. Starting running-back Ryan Mathews stayed healthy last year for the first time in his four year career, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy again this season. A brutal schedule isn’t going to help their chances, as they face Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Arizona before the bye week.

•Oakland Raiders (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) - It’s certainly not easy to find positives for the Raiders, but perhaps because expectations are so low, it might be possible they will be better than expected. They were certainly busy in the off-season bringing in Matt Schuab and Maurice Jones-Drew on offense, and their defense should be better with Justin Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Lamarr Woodley and first round draft pick Khalil Mack.
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NFC East

•Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.

•Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS) - New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.

•Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.

•New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.

NFC North

•Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.

•Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) - Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.

•Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) - After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.

•Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) - New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.

NFC South

•New Orleans Saints (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are working together, the Saints are a formidable team. New Orleans always possesses a strong offense, but their biggest improvement last season came on defense. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought a level of toughness to the Saints, and the players responded well to his coaching. The Saints gave up just 18 points per game and if they can duplicate that success, they should have another winning season.

•Atlanta Falcons (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Atlanta is in desperate need of stabilizing their offensive and defensive lines. Both units stunk last season. The Falcons fired both position coaches, so the team must hope the new voices get things back in order. Atlanta went 0-7 SU in true road games last season, and with tough out of division opponents like the Bengals, Giants, Ravens and Packers all coming away from home, the Falcons are facing a daunting schedule in 2014.

•Carolina Panthers (2013: 12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) - Question marks are aplenty in Carolina coming into 2014. The Panthers’ offense was poor in 2013, and now their offensive line is a mess and QB Cam Newton had off-season surgery. Their defense lost some key personnel, and off-field troubles have come to light. Carolina can go either way, so they are a difficult team to project without seeing what they look like on the field. But we’ll lean to a regression year for the Panthers.

•Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - It was a tale of two seasons for Tampa Bay in 2013. The Buccaneers started out 0-8 straight-up last season, but the team did not quit and they went 4-4 over their final eight games. The new head coach is Lovie Smith, and he has the respect of his players unlike Greg Schiano last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot of young talent, and they have the potential to be really good this year, especially with Smith’s clever defensive schemes.

NFC West

•Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.

•San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.

•Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) - There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.

•St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - While they look solid on the defensive end, and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.
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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel

•Saints @ Falcons--Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated NFC South rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits to the Georgia Dome, with last four wins by 4 or less points. New Orleans covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten divisional road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- it’s been four years since they won a NFC South road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 versus spread (64.7%) in divisional home matchups under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.

•Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes versus veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at defensive coordinator this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 versus spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota head coach; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two meetings with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers in 2013, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.

•Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Cleveland like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Browns lost last nine visits to Heinz Field, last six by 11+ points- they scored two touchdowns’ on 24 drives in two games versus Pitt last year, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started in 2013; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 straight-up in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three seasons, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.

•Jaguars @ Eagles--Philadelphia is just 9-23 versus spread at home (28.1%) the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jaguars won 13-6 here in 2006, their only visit to Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jacksonville lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jaguars are 5-15 versus spread (25.0%) in last 20 matchups versus NFC teams; Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 versus AFC squads. Over last five years, Week #1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

•Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for touchdown, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland last year, Raiders 4th loss in row at MetLife Stadium, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series meetings. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. New York won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 versus spread in last 21 home openers (23.8%), but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.

•Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive touchdowns’ on 29 drives versus Bengals last year, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings in 2013, but now Cincinnati has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as offensive coordinator for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series meetings; Bengals lost last four visits to M&T Bank Stadium, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine victories by 7+ points. Cincinnati started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.

•Bills @ Bears--Buffalo signed Bears' old backup quarterback Jordan Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years (21.0%); they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in 2006. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in 2010. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 versus spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since 2007, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites (37.1%), 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games versus AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 versus spread against NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.

•Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 in 2013, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current quarterback Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 versus spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since 2009, Texans are 5-12-3 versus spread (29.4%) when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites last season, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant Stadium in 2006; Texans won in overtime in last series meeting, in 2010. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.

•Titans @ Chiefs-- Ken Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 versus spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers last year, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since 2007, Kansas City is 5-19-1 versus spread as home favorite (20.8%); Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 versus spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2, 85.7% in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee in 2013, scoring touchdown on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.

•Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Patriots played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series meetings, upsetting New England 24-20 (+1) in Week #15 last season; Patriots won five of last seven visits to Sun Life Stadium, with four of five victories by 14+ points. New England won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 versus spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 versus spread in division games (39.1%) the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Dolphins last five home openers went over total.

•Panthers @ Buccaneers--Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at head coach for Buccaneers, who had only one touchdown on 20 drives versus Carolina in 2013, with three turnovers, along with eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Tampa Bay 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits to Raymond James Stadium. Bucs covered three of last four games as home underdog in home openers; they’re 5-4 straight-up in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.

•49ers @ Cowboys--49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite (79.1%) under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since 1988, they’re 5-3 straight-up when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such encounter was in 2002. Since 2006, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series meetings by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since 2011, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 versus spread on carpet under Harbaugh.

•Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 last year before losing 39-33 at Indianapolis in Week #7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four touchdowns was on drive longer than 50 yards. Colts lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 versus spread in Week #1 games. Manning is 9-5 versus spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 straight-up in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.

Monday, 9/8/2014

•Giants @ Lions-- Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

•Chargers @ Cardinals--San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #1
•NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 18.5.

•NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.

•BALTIMORE is 25-5 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 24.6, OPPONENT 15.2.

•DETROIT is 23-44 (-25.4 Units) against the 1rst half line as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 11.7, OPPONENT 10.7.

•PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.

•MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was SMITH 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - Any team versus the money line (CAROLINA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 6 or more wins in last 8 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team from last year (<=25%).
(28-2 since 1983.) (93.3%, +24.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 29.3, Opponent 18.3 (Average point differential = +11)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0, +11 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Payne Insider

Buffalo
Miami
Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

NFL:
Falcons +3,
Steelers -6.5,
Bengals +1.5,
Dolphins +5,
Bucs -128,
Cowboys +4.5, and
Chargers +3.5 (-125)
All bets are 2U each.

NFL: Jags +11.5 (-125) (5D)
NFL Sunday Totals:
Saints/Falcons U52,
Raiders/Jets O39.5, and
Buffalo/Chicago O47 (1U each)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

#467 Over 41 CLE / PIT NFAC 500.00
#474 Under 43.5 CIN / BAL NFAC 500.00
Tennessee +4.5 NFAC 400.00
New Orleans ML -140 NFAC 400.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phil Steele NFL Pressbox

Best Bet: #463 New Orleans 30 Atlanta 23
Best Bet: #474 Baltimore 27 Cincinnati 20
Best Bet: #481 New England 30 Miami 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges:

NFL

DOUBLE PLAY:
Miami--New England UNDER 46 1/2
Tampa Bay -2 1/2 Carolina

SINGLE PLAYS:
Tennessee +3 Kansas City
St. Louis -3 1/2 Minnesota
San Francisco -4 1/2 Dallas
Denver -7 1/2 Indianapolis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ross Benjamin

10* Baltimore -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Wynn

Vikings +3.5
Buccaneers -2.5
Titans/ Chiefs OVER 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

Bills +7
Dolphins +5.5
Bengals +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

3* Tennessee
3* Tampa Bay
3* Pittsburgh
3* Baltimore
3* Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodFather

STRAIGHT BET [478] HOU TEXANS -3-110:
2TEAS FB [473] CIN BENGALS +7½-110 (B+6) [483] CAR PANTHERS +8-110 (B+6):
2TEAS FB [483] CAR PANTHERS +8-110 (B+6) [488] DEN BRONCOS -1½-105 (B+6):
STRAIGHT BET [476] TOTAL u48½-110 (BUF BILLS vrs CHI BEARS):
[484]CAROLINA v TAMPA BAY u40 -110:
Week #1 [479] TENNESSEE +5:
Week #1 [463] NEW ORLEANS ML:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* Dolphins +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Podcast : Tampa bay buccs in NFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners -140 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 89-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 89-67

Rest of the Plays
Detroit Tigers -105 over SF Giants
Toronto Blue Jays -105 over Boston Red Sox
New York Mets -101 over Cincy Reds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Cleveland Browns +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers
(System Record: 1-1, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 1-5


Rest of the Plays
Chicago Bears -7 over Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys +4 over SF 49ers
New Orleans Saints -160 over Atlanta Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Godoy Cruz + Defensay Justicia OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 631-22, lost last game)
Overall Record: 631-522-92

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Pride

10 Units Tennessee Titans +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Win or Lose Sports Betting:

464 ATL +3

468 PITT -7

472 NYJ -5 top play

474 BALT -1
479 TENN +3
484 TB -2.5
485 SF -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access


Vikings +3
49ers -3.5
Broncos -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

10* Jets-5
10* Saints-2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NFL | MINNESOTA at ST LOUIS
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points terrible passing defense from last season - allowed 255 or more passing yards/game
23-5 over the last 10 seasons. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games
63-27 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.0% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
Play On - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year
84-43 since 1997. ( 66.1% | 36.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
15-8 this year. ( 65.2% | 6.2 units )

WNBA | CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games
113-28 since 1997. ( 80.1% | 0.0 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games
137-77 since 1997. ( 64.0% | 52.3 units )
16-12 this year. ( 57.1% | 2.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mercury heads into Game 1 as huge series fave
Andrew Avery

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Phoenix Mercury as huge -800 favorites to win the WNBA Championship series versus the Chicago Sky.

Game 1 is set to go Sunday afternoon in Phoenix and the Mercury are currently 9.5-point faves for the series opener.

The Mercury were 2-0 against the spread in their two regular season meetings with the Sky, covering as 9.5-point faves at home (87-69) and 5.5-point faves in Chicago (72-66).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rangers shut Darvish down
The Sports Xchange

The Texas Rangers have shut ace Yu Darvish down for the remainder of the season.

The 28-year-old right-handed Darvish has not pitched since early August due to elbow inflammation. He also has suffered from a thumb problem as well as a nagging neck injury.

Darvish compiled a 10-7 record with a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts.

Injuries have crippled the Rangers all year. Darvish joins 13 other teammates on the disabled list.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Home team a hot bet with Welke umpiring
Andrew Avery

The home team is 4-0 in the previous four games which umpire Tim Welke calls balls and strikes. That's where Welke will be Sunday as Cleveland Indians backers hope the mini streak continues versus the Chicago White Sox.

Welke has 27 games behind the plate and the home team is 14-13 in those games.

Indians are -200 moneyline favorites.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Royals banking with Ventura on the hill
Andrew Avery

Sitting atop the American League Central, the Kansas City Royals have been a great story this season. Even better is the fact that they've pulled through for their backers as well, sitting fifth in our MLB Money standings.

Royals supporters will look to keep cashing tickets with a reliable arm on the mound at the New York Yankees Sunday. Kansas City will send Yordano Ventura to the mound and are 6-1 in his last seven starts.

Three of those seven starts came on the road away from Kauffman Stadium and the Royals were favored in all seven starts.

The Mirage opened the Yankees as -130 favorites earlier Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL PicksIndianapolis at DenverThe Colts head to Denver to open their regular season tonight and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games versus the Broncos. Indianapolis is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/1)


Game 463-464: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.138; Atlanta 130.846
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2 1/2); Over


Game 465-466: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 130.652; St. Louis 132.054
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over


Game 467-468: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.022; Pittsburgh 138.425
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Over


Game 469-470: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.816; Philadelphia 133.483
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11); Over


Game 471-472: Oakland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.602; NY Jets 135.250
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 14 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5); Over


Game 473-474: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.095; Baltimore 131.442
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Under


Game 475-476: Buffalo at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.013; Chicago 133.118
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over


Game 477-478: Washington at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.942; Houston 125.013
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over


Game 479-480: Tennessee at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.971; Kansas City 132.518
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Under


Game 481-482: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.356; Miami 129.666
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over


Game 483-484: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.830; Tampa Bay 134.051
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1); Under


Game 485-486: San Francisco at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 141.550; Dallas 130.068
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under


Game 487-488: Indianapolis at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.352; Denver 140.289
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL PicksSaskatchewan at WinnipegThe Roughriders head to Winnipeg today and come into the contest with a 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (9/3)


Game 497-498: Hamilton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.520; Montreal 112.707
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+1); Under


Game 499-500: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.843; Winnipeg 111.811
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 55
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Derek Carr era in Oakland begins on Sunday as the Raiders travel east to take on the New York Jets. Carr won the starting QB job over Matt Schaub and will make his first career start against a Jets defense that has traditionally made that a tough spot. Rex Ryan’s teams are 7-1 all-time vs. rookie quarterbacks. The Jets secondary has a lot of question marks entering this season, so the matchup vs. a rookie quarterback might be exactly what the doctor ordered. The Jets offense will once again be led by Geno Smith, who has definitely looked more comfortable in his second season leading the Jets. Offensively, the Jets went out and added some weapons with RB Chris Johnson coming over from Tennessee and WR Eric Decker joining New York via Denver. One thing that Oakland will have to improve in the 2014 season is their defense, especially on the road, where they surrendered almost 28 ppg. One angle we have always really liked is going against West Coast teams travelling east for a 1 p.m. kickoff, and we have that situation here in New York. We like Ryan’s career mark against rookie QB’s and we think that success continues Sunday as the Jets cover the number against the Raiders. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – NEW YORK JETS (-5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Hay/Prophet Plays (YouWinNow)

10* NFL Solid Gold Play - Patriots -3.5

The Patriots made some late preseason trades that were very crafty. They also get their full compliment of players back this year.(DT's Wilfork and Kelly, ILB Mayo and TE Gronkowski) The injury bug devastated New England last year and they still made it to the AFC Championship game. They also now have stud corner Revis to control one side of the field. Have to believe the duo of Bellichick and Brady remember their 24-20 loss to Miami in week 15 last year, costing them home field in the playoffs. Bellichick has only lost 6 division games in the last 5 years and is 4-0 ATS/SU revenging those losses, Covering by 21 PPG.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

NFL Play of the Day - Redskins +3

RG III is really looking forward to the regular season to recover from his terrible season last year. He has put in a ton of work and now have an awesome weapon in Jackson. Houston is looking to rebound from a terrible season but this is not a good spot for them as they only have covered 1 of their last 8 as home favorites against NFC teams. Houston lost ATS every time they were favored last season, they have to show me they can cover when laying points, until they do I am going against them.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne root

no limit jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club

NFL Selections


#466 ST.Louis -3
#475 Buffalo +7
#477 Washington +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans (-3) 1:00 ET

After the positive numbers authored by Houston in the 2012 season, much was expected of the Texans in 2013. They proceed to author a 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS log, making them the biggest underachiever in the NFL last season. Paying the price was QB Schaub (now Oakland) and former HC Kubiak (now Washington) who is now replaced by HC O’Brien, who coached Penn State the last two seasons. At the signal caller spot will be QB Fitzpatrick (Tennessee LY). As you can imply from the above analysis, the improvement will not be immediate. Washington breaks in new HC Gruden, but there is stability at the signal caller spot with RG3, now healthier, after his ACL injury of two years ago. Aggressive Washington defense may cause some havoc against the still-developing Houston attack. From a technical perspective, know that in the last 4 years, teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season are just 11-29 ATS in early season action. Make the Redskins your Dog of the Day!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LJ Consulting Coach

Bills +7
Texans -3
Colts +8
Vikings +3.5
Chiefs -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Oregon on Saturday and likes the Browns on Sunday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Rays lower Hondo’s deficit

Hondo made another assault on the dirty digits Saturday when the Rays performed to expectation, bringing down the Birds to reduce the number to 1,555 templetons.

Sunday: It wouldn’t be right for the Yankees to lose on Jeter Day, and Mr. Aitch doesn’t want to be wrong, so he will put 10 units on Greene. Also, he doesn’t see how he can go wrong with Wainwright, so he will throw 10 more at the Cards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, playing on Sunday
202-95 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 68.3 units )
43-26 this year. ( 62.3% | 7.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY YANKEES
KANSAS CITY is 36-16 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (2.9)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Week 1 NFL

September 4th thru 7th 2014

These are all of the NFL plays that I have pending for week 1. Once again, do not expect to see me with this many plays every week. Most weeks I usually have about three plays on an average Sunday, but week one makes for many good spots and some weak lines. The only other play that I may add would be a play on Carolina plus the points to shoot for a middle. I'm going to continue to watch the line and if it gets to Carolina +3 I may jump on it. I will be in Vegas this weekend to be sure to follow me on Twitter or get on my text list for any added plays that I may have. I will update the website on Tuesday when I return. Good luck!

-EZ

5* Tampa Bay Bucs +2

Carolina had a great turn around season last year posting a 12-4 record, but I expect regression this season. Since 2002 there have been thirty six teams that posted ten or more wins following a losing season like the Panthers did last year and out of those thirty six teams, twenty nine of them regressed by at least one win the following year. Carolina is a whole different team on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Cam Newton had off season ankle surgery and he has a whole new cast of receivers to get used to playing with since Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are all gone. Carolina will be counting on a rookie, Calvin Benjamin who is still very raw to be their top receiver. To make matters worse, the Panthers already shaky offensive line will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross who has retired. Tampa Bay is a team on the rise. New head coach Lovie Smith will improve a Tampa Bay defense that was near the bottom of the league last season. Star cornerback Darrelle Revis is gone, but Tampa Bay snagged two of the top defensive free agents with defensive end Michael Johnson from Cincinnati and cornerback Alterraun Verner from Tennessee who is a better fit in Lovie Smith's zone defense. The Bucs also added defensive tackle Clinton McDonald from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Offensively I also expect the Bucs to be much improved after finishing at the bottom of the league in total offense last year. Former Bear's quarterback Josh McCown will be under center after a huge year as a backup to Jay Cutler last season. McCown had a lot of success last year throwing to big receivers in Chicago and that is exactly what he will have here in Tampa with Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans along with rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Bucs will also have a healthy running back in third year player Doug Martin who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and also Charles Sims who has a diverse skill set coming out of the backfield. The Buc's offensive line will also be improved with the addition of center Evan Dietrich-Smith and left tackle Anthony Collins. Carolina had one of the best defensive units in the league last year, but if their offense struggles to move the ball and keep them off the field they won't be nearly as effective this season. The Panthers defense also suffered losses in the secondary as Mike Mitchell ( signed with Pittsburgh) is a critical loss at safety and Captain Munnerlyn's (signed with Minnesota) presence will be especially missed in the slot. Also star defensive end Greg Hardy added to the off season distractions as he was arrested following an alleged incident of domestic violence and there is a good chance he won't play in this game. This also a very bad technical spot for the Panthers as playoff teams laying points in week one against a non playoff team have been huge money burners. This is a big home game for the Bucs and Lovie Smith to get off to a good start and Carolina has lost their first road game of the season the last five years. I like Tampa in this one. Take the points.


4* Carolina Panthers +3

I' going for a middle with this play on Carolina. If you don't have a play on Tampa Bay plus the points pending, don't play Carolina.


4* Washington Redskins +3

I'm jumping on this play now while it's still at the key number of three. The Texans looked horrible in their first pre-season game against Arizona. We should all remember that it is only the pre-season and we shouldn't over react, but this Texans team needs a lot of work. The defense is still adjusting to a new scheme and the secondary will need a lot of work. On offense you can see why wide receiver Andre Johnson wanted out because the quarterback situation is a mess. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just not a quality starting quarterback in this league and Case Keenum and Tom Savage don't bring much improve to the position either. At this point Matt Schaub would be looking very attractive to still have on the roster. Washington is not a playoff team in my opinion, but they are much further along than Houston. The Skins have RGIII at quarterback which is a huge advantage compared to the Texans signal callers This Texans team needs to learn how to win again and being favored against anyone to start the season is asking way too much. Jump on this line before it drops as I will be very surprised if you will be able to get Washington +3 at kickoff in a few weeks. Take the points.


3* Atlanta Falcons +3

This is a HUGE game for Atlanta as the Falcons will look to bounce back from last years disaster and become a factor in the NFL once again. The Falcons are a healthy this season with wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones at 100%. Running back Stephen Jackson is also healthy and Atlanta also added another game breaker in Devin Hester. The Saints swept the series last year, but both of those games were very close. Atlanta has the reputation has being a soft team, but they have made some moves in free agency to help with that on both sides of the ball. I love the Saints chances this season. They have improved their defense with the signing of Jairus Byrd and also added another offensive weapon with rookie Brandon Cooks, but the Saints still need to prove it to me on the road where they are just 2-9-1 against the spread in their last twelve games. This is a much bigger game for the Falcons and with the public money pouring in on New Orleans I will gladly take the points.


3* Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5

Philadelphia put up some huge numbers on the offensive side of the ball last season and they should be explosive once again but laying double digit points in the NFL is never a good idea, even if it is against one of the worst teams in the league. This is also a very bad technical spot to back Philadelphia. In week one, playoff teams that are favored against non playoff teams have been some of the worst bets that could be made failing to cover about 75% of the time. The Eagles have a lot of weapons on offense, but Nick Foles will have to adjust to life without wide receiver DeShawn Jackson who is now with the Redskins. As I'm playing this game the Eagles have only played one pre-season game and Foles was shaky. I already expected a bit of regression this season so we will have to see how that plays out. The Jags also upgraded their defense over the off season with the additions of defensive ends Chris Clemons and Red Bryant who both played for head coach Gus Bradley when he was the defensive coordinator at Seattle. On the offensive side Jacksonville still has questions at quarterback and it is yet to be seen if Chad Henne or Blake Bortles will be under center to start this game but they have a pair of explosive weapons in wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson. Both playmakers are capable of becoming top caliber NFL receivers and the Jags also have their top returning wide receiver in to go along with the rookies in the steady Cecil Shorts. The addition of running back Toby Gerhart from Minnesota should also give a boost to the running game that has not produced the last couple years with a banged up Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield. I like Jacksonville to keep this one close, take the points.


3* Baltimore Ravens -1.5

Baltimore made some nice improvements in the off season. Former Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is the new offensive coordinator and quarterback Joe Flacco has a new weapon to help the passing game with wide receiver Steve Smith who came over from the Panthers and the Ravens also upgraded their offensive line. Dennis Pita being healthy is also huge for this offense that relies heavily on the tightend. The Ravens also picked up former Texan Owen Daniels who will provide even more depth at the tightend positions. The Ravens defense also should be improved in the second year of the post Ray Lewis era. The Bengals are a talented team, but they brand new offensive and defensive coordinators. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton will also have a rookie center snapping him the ball this season. The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight meetings and I look for that to continue in this game. Lay the points.

3* Miami Dolphins +4.5

This is a huge game for the Dolphins as that organization wants to take the next step and prove that they are a contender in this division. I see a lot of value with Miami in this spot. Last season the Dolphins were a small favorite at home against these Patriots and now they are catching points. This is another one of these profitable spots to back the underdog that didn't make the playoffs last year against a playoff team in week one. Miami should be improved this season. Quarterback Ryan Tannahill has had the whole off season and training camp to gel with wide receiver Mike Wallace who I expect to have a much more productive season than his first in Miami. The Dolphins have pass rushers to get after Tom Brady with defensive end's Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon who combined for 20 sacks last season and they also beefed up their secondary in the off season as well. New England is going to be one of the top teams in the AFC once again this year but they are usually overvalued by the Vegas odds makers. New England has won ten straight season openers but they are just 5-5 against the spread in those games. I expect this one to be decided by a field goal one way or the other. Take the points.

3* Dallas Cowboys +6

I think this is going to be a very interesting game. San Francisco is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season, but I have to admit they did not look very good in the pre-season. The starting offense for the 49ers looked bad and could not find the end zone. I expect this group to come together, but it might take a few weeks and that is a good thing for Dallas. The Cowboys defense looks like they will once again be one of the worst in the NFL. They might have a chance to play well against the struggling 49ers offense, but then again they might be just the think to get the San Francisco offense on track! I really like the Dallas offense in this match up to keep us within the number against a 49ers defense that will be at less than 100% to start to season due to injuries and/or suspension. Dallas have been an automatic fade for me as a favorite, but as an underdog they have been solid. This is also another case of a playoff team laying points against a non playoff team in week one which has been a cash cow for the dogs. I think San Fran will be lucky to escape Big D with a win. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Jets -5.5
Rams -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U
2014 NFL Football Sunday Kickoff Total of the Year!!!!!
New England/Miami over 46 1/2


Early NFL Best Bets
Cleveland/Pittsburgh under 41 1/2
Jacksonville/Philadelphia under 52
Oakland/New York under 40 1/2
Tennessee/Kansas City over 43 1/2


2014 Sunday Night Football Kickoff Total of the Year!!!!!
Indianapolis/Denver under 55


Late NFL Best Bets
Carolina/Tampa Bay over 38
San Francisco/Dallas under 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

3-Unit Play. Take #462 Seattle (-5.5) over Green Bay (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
4-Unit Play. Take #463 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
5-Unit Play. Take #476 Chicago (-6.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.5 Buffalo at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
5-Unit Play. Take #468 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take #473 Cincinnati (+1.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take #477 Washington (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinBetNfl

No #1
Pittsburgh Steelers - Cleveland Browns
Over 40
Odd: 1.80

No #2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Carolina Panthers
Over 37
Odd: 1.80

No #3
New York Jets - Oakland Raiders
Over 39
Odd: 1.85

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

5* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5

3* Chicago Bears -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

NFL

4* Denver Broncos -7.5

4* Dallas Cowboys +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza (Vegas Sports Informer)

5* Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just Cover Baby

5 {478} Houston -3
4 {464} Atlanta +3
4 {473} Cincinnati +1
3 {470} Philadelphia -10
3 {487} Indianapolis +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli

NFL

Eagles

Steelers

Texans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

NFL

3* Denver Broncos

3* Baltimore Ravens

2* Pittsburgh Steelers

2* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2* "Over" Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NFL

Buffalo @ CHICAGO

Buffalo +7 -110 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

It will soon become obvious as to what our approach is in Week 1. We’re playing against popular teams that come into the season overhyped and overvalued. That applies to the Bears. Chicago is the trendy pick to win the NFC North while also being another one of those fantasy football gold teams, as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Jay Cutler are expected to put up monster numbers this season. That may all come to pass but you’ll be paying a premium to wager on the Bears in Week 1 and likely beyond, which is something we seldom recommend.

There is virtually no hype whatsoever surrounding Buffalo. The Bills stumble into this season after an unimpressive preseason. Sammy Watkins has sore ribs and EJ Manuel's terrible preseason has forced the team to turn to a $5 million backup plan in Kyle Orton. However, we’re not going to put much emphasis on any preseason record or performance. What we know for sure is that the Bills are deep on both lines. They could potentially be a great running team, which will open up the passing game. Expectations for the Bills are low while expectations for the Bears are high. Chicago’s defense, once feared, is no longer at that same level. The market has moved this number from +6½ to +7 and that’s a nice number to be on for a Bills team that is well-positioned to stay well-within this range.


Oakland @ N.Y. JETS

Oakland +5½ -110 over N.Y. JETS

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Not long ago it looked like the Jets’ Week 1 starters at cornerback would be Dee Milliner and Dimitri Patterson. So much for that plan. Coach Rex Ryan announced that Milliner won't be playing against the Raiders. Milliner, the ninth overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, has been held out of practice since suffering a high-ankle sprain on Aug. 10. Patterson won't be playing in the game because he's no longer on the team. That means New York's starting corners will likely be Antonio Allen and Darrin Walls. The two defensive backs have four career starts between them at cornerback. Geno Smith is still unproven at QB, yet bettors are flocking to lay points with the Jets. What we’re suggesting is that it’s not that the public is enamored with New York but more a case of public money being fed up with Oakland. Furthermore, the Raiders were only 1-7 on the road last year (4-12 overall) while the Jets posted a 6-2 mark at home. Based on that and based on the public’s indictment of the Raiders, we get a decent number here on the dog.

The Raiders signed a host of veteran talent in free agency, including QB Matt Schaub and DE Antonio Smith from the Texans, along with DE Justin Tuck from the Giants, as well as several other veterans. In the draft they seized OLB Khahil Mack with the #5 pick, and QB Derek Carr in the 2nd round. If the Raiders can pull all of these new players together, and make them work, their foundation of talent could make them the surprise team in 2014. The Raiders are going with rookie Derek Carr who has looked sharp in meaningless preseason play. They have a running back duo of Maurice Drew Jones and Darren McFadden, two guys that have shown flashes of brilliance in the past and who will both be playing with huge chips on their respective shoulders. We’re not suggesting that the Raiders are going to be a factor but we are suggesting that Derek Carr might be the best QB this team has employed in years and if he gets off to a good start, momentum can carry this veteran team a long way. The Jets were favored three times in 16 games last year. They were favored by three or less in all three games and now they’re being asked to spot a number that they have not spotted since December of 2012 when they were a 6-point choice over Arizona. The Jets won that game 7-6 and while they do possess a great defense, they have many injuries and unanswered questions and they don’t deserve to be in this price range just yet. Upset possibility.


Carolina @ TAMPA BAY

Carolina +129 over TAMPA BAY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)

The Panthers are featured in our over/under win totals (we went under 8½) for the season but we can’t let that prevent us from playing them when the situation warrants it. Carolina opened up in June as a -1 point favorite but money started coming in on the Buccaneers in early August and it hasn’t stopped since. So why all the love for the Bucs? Well, the Buccaneers plowed the coaching soil and brought in Lovie Smith for head coach and Jeff Tedford as the new offensive coordinator. Tedford was the long-time head coach of the Cal Bears and was noted as a quarterback guru with Aaron Rodgers his crowning glory. That’s a nice start for the Bucs but it’s likely going to take some time to make it all work. Josh McCown is the new starter which seems a curious move since most teams would not elect to rebuild around a 35-year-old career back-up on his fifth NFL team while the younger Mike Glennon sits on the bench and assumes the #2 role again. Frankly, we don’t see an improvement on either side of the ball for these Bucs but the early line movement suggests that the public and or/media does.

That work in progress offense for Tampa is up against it here against a Carolina team that knows a thing or two about defense. The concern for the Panthers is that Cam Newton exploded on the scene as a rookie but has cooled down the last two years. He ran for 585 yards and five scores in 2013 but only passed for 3379 yards and 24 scores to a receiver corps that no longer exists. Newton’s decline in passing is expected to continue now that Brandon LaFell is in New England and Steve Smith went to Baltimore. The Panthers did draft Kelvin Benjamin but the rest of the receivers seem to have been picked up at the end of the day from a garage sale. Still, with Tampa’s poor secondary and many other questions, we’re leaning to the Panthers here in a big way. Newton is dangerous with his legs and he could have one of those rare 300 + yards passing day. These Bucs still suffer from many afflictions and they have no business laying weight to a team with a far superior defense than they possess. Panthers outright.


Minnesota @ ST. LOUIS

ST. LOUIS -3½ +102 over Minnesota

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Minnesota is gaining steam in the market while the Rams are losing steam and that sets this one up nicely for Rams’ backers. We’re one of them. The Vikings start anew with the Bengals old defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer now leading the show in Minnesota. He tabbed Norv Turner to run the offense and that usually brings good things to bear for running backs and tight ends if not the entire team. But the personnel remained the same other than drafting Teddy Bridgewater with their 1.32 pick. Christian Ponder dropped to #3 on the depth chart while Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback for now. Bridgewater was genuinely impressive in preseason and will become the starter at some point. That makes Cassel a lame duck of sorts but expect Bridgewater to get the call once the season starts to head the wrong way. The Vikings don’t travel well and went 0-7-1 last year away from home. An all new offensive scheme means the first road game is likely to be a challenge for the Vikes particularly against a solid defense like the Rams.

We’re pretty sure that the money coming in on the Vikes is more about the public fading the Rams after St. Louis lost their #1 QB, Sam Bradford for the year. The loss of Bradford sent the Rams scrambling but finding nobody that attractive in free agency. They are now relying on Shaun Hill, who is on his fourth NFL team at the age of 34 and in his 14th year. HC Jeff Fisher says he is committed to Hill but mostly from a lack of alternatives. Austin Davis is the #2 quarterback but has no NFL experience in his two previous years in the league. When a key player like Bradford goes down it instantly gives the players a chip on their shoulder because they get written off by the media and want to prove everyone wrong. That’s the mentality for the Rams in Week 1 and we’ll look for the defense to step up big and provide great field position throughout. Remember, the Vikings defense was one of the very worst last season and we don’t see where they have improved. An overreaction by the market to the loss of Bradford has us spotting the points.


New Orleans @ ATLANTA

ATLANTA +3 -107 over New Orleans

As we look at the first Sunday of the year in the NFL, we’ll apply our buy-low, sell-high angle to several teams. Week 1 lines are largely based on last year’s results, which works to our advantage. With free agency, coaching changes, trades and all the turnover in personnel in the NFL, it provides us with several good opportunities. Public bettors are likely to bet against last year's bad teams early in the season, which causes the odd makers to react by moving point spreads toward the perceived better team in each matchup. That helps to create added value on perceived bad teams and it’s something we’ll look to take advantage of.

Does anyone give the Falcons a chance here? When the lines first came out in early summer, the Falcons opened as a 2-point favorite but the money that poured in on the Saints caused that number to move five points in the Saints’ favor. With fantasy football being so popular and the Saints being considered “fantasy gold”, New Orleans now becomes one of, if not the most popular team in the NFL. The Saints boast one of the most powerful offenses that returns intact with all coaches and players and the only difference is a defense that should be even better. There is more hype on the Saints this season than just about any team in the NFL, which makes it extremely difficult to pull the trigger against them in the first week with an Atlanta team that went 4-12 last year. Furthermore, Atlanta has lost five of its last six games at home to New Orleans. The entire betting world is spotting the points and to us, that’s a huge red flag.

The Falcons lost both of their hot wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones last season to injury. They will both be returning this year. They also added OT Jake Matthews in the draft to give Matt Ryan some needed protection. In the draft they also picked up a free safety, a defensive end and three outside linebackers to strengthen their defense. They also drafted a running back (Devonta Freeman) to share the carries with starter Steven Jackson in the offense. Despite the injuries to many of his weapons in 2013, Matt Ryan quietly had a tremendous season. He passed for 4515 yards and 26 touchdowns while rarely getting to use Roddy White or Julio Jones. Home dogs in Week 1 are almost always live and with Atlanta’s stock so low and New Orleans’ stock so high, this becomes the best buy-low, sell-high value bet of the week. If you are on board with this wager, wait until late Sunday morning to make it because we are almost sure to get 3½ or 4. We’ll update this one late Sunday morning with our official wager.


Cleveland @ PITTSBURGH

Cleveland +7 -110 over PITTSBURGH

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The new era begins for the Browns in what recently has been the annual purge of everybody and everything. Realtors must love the Browns. Mike Pettine comes over from the Bills where he was the defensive coordinator and he tabbed Kyle Shanahan to run the offense as he did in Washington where he was last run out of town in their own purge. There has been so much change, again, that it is hardly fair to establish any expectations with so much unknown. The Browns lost 20-7 in Pittsburgh last year. Those Browns seemed better than these Brownies. Cleveland's offseason and preseason was dominated by negative press. Bettors have reacted by jumping all over Pittsburgh, causing this number to move up from its opening line of +5 to its current line of +6½. Expect +7 by game time so wait until Sunday to make this wager because the public wants no part of this circus in Cleveland. It all looks ugly for the Brownies but once again the media blows everythig out of proportion and that greatly affects public perception.

That leaves bettors grabbing for Pittsburgh. You know, the same Steelers that ended 8-8 last year with very few exceptions. Ben Roethlisberger gets worse every year, not better. Long been one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league, the Steelers are moving to a more no-huddle offense this year, which helps up the tempo and slow down the rush. The league has caught up to Pittsburgh and to Mike Tomlin. Tomlin didn’t get much help in the off-season. He still operates a team with very few upgrades. Tomlin’s coaching decisions get worse every season because the team he coaches gets worse. Big Ben is not like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or other elite QB’s in that he doesn’t spend the time in the film room trying to improve his own game or the overall play of the team. Said one former backup QB, “Roethisberger doesn’t even look our way in practice. He’s not very approachable and isn’t interested in helping. He’s the first one out when practice ends”. That’s not the first time we’ve heard stuff like that about Big Ben. Contrary to public belief, the Steelers are not the same model franchise that they’ve been since the 70’s. They’ve been in regression mode for three years running and it starts in the front office and runs deep from there. What we have here is a gross overreaction to Cleveland’s offseason and preseason shortcomings but Cleveland still has a loaded defense and a very capable QB in Brian Hoyer. This has to be considered one of the premier buy-low/sell high propositions on the card and we’re all over it.


We're passing on Sunday's two CFL games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Baltimore @ TAMPA BAY

Baltimore -102 over TAMPA BAY

(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA and some very average outings before the All-Star break. He has been a lot better ever since with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. Those gains would be more noticeable if not for an unlucky 35% hit rate. Norris’s surge in strikeouts is supported by his 10% swing and miss % since the break so he’s a solid proposition to keep churning out strong games the rest of the way. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Norris has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a line-drive rate of 14%, a groundball rate of 48% and a xERA of 3.25. Norris can deal it but we’re not so sure about Jeremy Hellickson.

Hellickson is rated a high risk for a tough home outing against one of the American League’s best road offenses. Hellickson (5.32 home ERA this season) is coming off back-to-back games in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning against both Toronto (5 ER in 3.1 IP) and these same Orioles (4 ER in 4.1 IP). Hellickson was also tagged for three bombs in those two games. After three years of outperforming xERA with favorable hit and strand percentages, luck has predictably swung the other way against him this year. Hellickson’s weak 34%/45% groundball/fly-ball split is another troublesome trait in his profile. The Orioles are in one of their hot zones (5.6 RPG, .828 OPS since Aug. 25) and they always seem to be in a hot zone against Hellickson (.822 OPS in 220+ PA). The O’s figure to get to Hellickson again and in the process put away the Rays early.


Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEES

Kansas City +104 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

We ran into some hard luck yesterday with the Royals when Danny Duffy was removed from the game after throwing one pitch. One pitch is an official start and the Royals were forced to being in career stiff Liam Hendriks. Naturally we lost that game but it’s not going to prevent us from coming right back on the Royals here against Shane Greene. An addition to a Yankees rotation that re-tooled midseason due to various injuries, farmhand Shane Greene has given the Yankees some very good innings since his July promotion. Only problem is, this is the same guy with a career 4.39 ERA in over 500 career minor league innings. Are we sure this is the same guy? Greene has had no problem inducing swings and misses versus major league competition. His K rate has hovered around 8 K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, but his current swing and miss rate of 10% at this level was unexpected. That said, you don't spend five years in Single-A without your share of warts, and his competition thus far has been on the light side (BOS twice, TEX, TAM, CHW). Nothing in his current profile says an implosion is imminent but the small sample size corollary is in play here and we’re seeing signs of big trouble. Greene’s line-drive rate of 27% is high, which suggests he's been fairly hittable. This is an ongoing problem of his, as he allowed nearly 10 hits per game on average in the minors. His WHIP of 1.36 is higher than the league average and in his last three starts Greene has been taken yard four times. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, Greene has an oppBA of .306, an ERA of 5.40 and a BB/K split of 11/22 in 26 innings. It would appear that the book is out on him now that he’s made 11 starts.

Royals starter Yordano Ventura was skipped in his rotation turn on Aug. 27 because of tightness in the middle of his back. It was later reported Ventura's MRI showed inflammation and fluid but no damage and as a result he missed just one start. He returned to the rotation on Sept 1 and allowed just five hits in 6.1 frames against the Rangers while striking out 7. K.C. has won six of Ventura’s last seven starts. He’s now 11-9 with an elite 18 pure quality starts in 25 tries, a 3.38 ERA and 132 K’s overall in 153 innings. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) has top of the rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Everything in Ventura’s profile is heading the right way including swinging strike rate, first pitch strike rate, groundball percentage (52% over his last six starts) and most importantly xERA. As a pooch against the light hitting Yanks, Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Winning Crew

MLB 50 Dime Play - Saint Louis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GoodFella

NFL Divisional GOW 3* on NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GoodFella

2* Two Team NFL 7 pt Teaser of the Week

Chicago pk and Tampa Bay +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting As A Business

NFL
Baltimore -1 (-115) / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Baltimore)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bones best bet

vikings @ rams under 43 -105 *2*

saints @ falcons over 52 -105 *2*

teaser - 7.5 points - 4 teams - ties reduce
saints +4.5 / steelers pk / patriots +4 / giants lions o39.5 +215 *3*

teaser - 8 points - 4 teams - tied reduce
saints falcons o44 / niners +4 / broncos -1 / colts broncos o47 +185 *3*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy


6-unit St Louis -3.5
3-unit Arizona -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James Sports

Eagles -10.5
Chiefs -3
Bengals +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

100 DIME NFL MONEY MOVE
#2 IN A ROW
Dallas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HE WAGER WIRE / Joey Buckets

26195 NOR Reg. Season Wins o9½ (-170) 2u

25361 NOR Win NFC South (+105) 1u

Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins u8.5 (-150) 2u

Cowboys Regular Season Wins Total u8 (-200) 2u

Colts Win AFC South (-145) 2u

1u Bears/Bills u48.5 (-110)

1u Browns/Steelers o41 (-110)

1u Bengals/Ravens u43.5 (-110)

1u Vikings +4 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSMAN

Miami Dolphins + 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEVE FEZZIK

(NFL)

3* Under 43.5 - Baltimore/Cincy

2* Tampa Bay-1.5 vs. Carolina

2* 483 New Orleans Saints -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS

4* Minnesota Vikings+3.5

4* Kansas City Chiefs-3

4* Tampa Bay Bucs-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lineback

NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

linemakers plays
mia under
pitt & under
jack & over
buf & over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Coast

Week 2 Comps

B3: NFLTot: U44.5 Min/STL

B3: Sunday Pro Play: Saints -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R&R TOTALS
Philadelphia Eagles OV 51½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PSYCHIC
(1-5)

5 unit San Francisco -4.5 (MAJOR)
3 unit Atlanta +3
3 unit Washington +3

WIZARD
(1-10)

9 unit Chicago -6.5

JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)

1 unit Minnesota +3.

The Statman
(1-10)

7 unit Chicago -6.5

Michael Cash Money
(1-10)

8 unit Chicago -6.5
7 unit Indianpolis +7.5

Genius
(1-10)

8 unit Oregon -13

The Sports Report
(1-10)

8 unit New England -4.5

Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)

67% over 37.5 Carolina-TB

Sports Chick
(1-10, occassional 20)

7.5 unit Chicago -6.5
7.5 unit Kansas City -3

Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)

8 unit Carolina +2.5
8 unit Indianapolis +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

MLB

Colorado Rockies +110

Just like we said yesterday, if San Diego can come here and out score this Rockies team then so be it, but Colorado is built for this park and it really doesn't matter who the starting pitchers are. The Padres scored a ton of runs last night and still lost. Colorado just has better bats in this park and I like them as the dog. Take the Rockies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Oakland Athletics -145

100* Over 52 New Orleans Saints/Atlanta Falcons

50* Kansas City Chiefs -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Black


Broncos

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman

3* Tennessee
3* Tampa
Saints
Jets
Bears
Denver under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones
NFL-Buffalo Bills(+7)-113...(3*)
NFL-Denver Broncos(-7)-131...(1*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NorthCoast

POD 3.5* (488) Broncos -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AL Demarco 30 dime philly

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve budin 50 dime San Fran

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams 1500* ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Craig Davis 100 dime dolphins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland Insider (4-0 yesterday in College Football)

NFL
Saint Louis Rams -3 over the Minnesota Vikings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkoski Milan


20* Washington Redskins +3
20* New York Jets -5½
20* Vikings / Rams Over 43
20* Atlanta Falcons +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpic
2* ravens
2* Tampa bay
1* Tenn over
free bears over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSBOSS

Minn.
NYJ.
KC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nemo SHIPIT

Dallas +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI 6 Pt Teaser

Denver
Pitt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Original NFL Picks


(A) Tennessee +3.5
(A or B- depends on previous game) San Francisco -4




Additional Plays:
Pittsburgh -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Added

10* Jets -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREDICTION MACHINE

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
486 4:25 PM @DAL vs SF 5 -3.2 54.2% $19

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
485 4:25 PM SF @ DAL 31.0 27.8 57.7%

OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
486 4:25 PM SF @ DAL 51 58.9 Over 61.3% $94

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LOCK SPORTS PICKS

Dallas Cowboys +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike davis mlb

3* Under-8.5-Seattle/Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Bet Tiger
*NFL (482) MIA DOLPHINS +4.5-110
*NFL (484) TB BUCCANEERS -150
*NFL TEASER 7 PTS (465) MIN VIKINGS +10.5 / (488) DEN BRONCOS -.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

1500 Bears -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Mlb

3*-Padres-120

[golden contender]

Sunday 6* 27-1 Opening week Play of the Year leads a powerful card with a Triple system early 5* system, a 100% week 1 totals system and a 28-2 late afternoon system that dates to 1983. In MLB Its a 16-1 Power Angle play. Football off to fast start and was 59 games over.500 the past 6 seasons combined. First big winner on Thursday with Seattle Free system club play below.




The Free NFL System club play is on the Minnesota Vikings +3 points. Game 465 at 1:00 eastern plus the points over St. Louis. The Rams have failed to cover 17 straight times in weeks 1-3 and have lost 4 of 5 vs NFC North teams. It may take then awhile to settle in with Qb S. Hill. The Vikings won big the last time they were here and will have be in this one throughout. Take the Minnesota Vikings Vikings here tonight. On Sunday in week 1 action the 6* Opening Week 27-1 system play takes center stage along with an early triple system dog, a 100% totals system and the 28-2 late afternoon system winner, along with a 16-1 MLB Power Angle play. Bases 3--0 the last 2 nights. Football has started off fast against this season and coming in we were 59 games over .500 the last 6 seasons. Our opening play cashed big with Seattle on Thursday. Message to Jump on now and out the most devastating league wide data in the industry on your side today. for the free play take the Minnesota Vikings. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Pipeline

10*Steelers

10* Bears

10* Bucs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

[ NFL ]

50 Chic
50 Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lenny stevens

20 minn
20 tenn
10 jets
10 denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Mariners(-138)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS N' PROFITS

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 vs. Cleveland Browns @ 1PM

New York Jets -5 1/2 vs. Oakland Raiders @ 1PM

Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams under 43 1/2 @ 1PM

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 vs. Dallas Cowboys @ 425PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBetting Picks / Kevin

2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -3 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry bondi:

5- balt,
3- jets, k city

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carolina sports:

5- wash,
4- no,
3- tn, tb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Locksmith Sports

MLB:
St.Louis -132 1*


NFL:
Buffalo + 7 -110 1*
Houston -3 -110 1*
Tennessee +3 -110 3*
Tampa Bay -3 -110 3*

Free Roll Chairman's Play:
Denver -7.5 -110 4*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday September 7, 2014
$25.00 NFL Play #1


#463 New Orleans -3 1PM Eastern


Line from CRIS
Line as of 10AM Eastern 9/7/14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe


474 BAL -1.0 (-120) 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/) vs 473 CIN
Analysis:
Cincinnati has made the Playoffs each of the past three seasons but has yet to win a Playoff game. They start this season with new coordinators on both sides of the football. After winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago Baltimore suffered fate similar to many recent champs, losing key players to retirement or free agency and having the big target on their backs. The Ravens were a respectable 8-8 after 5 straight Playoff seasons. They rate the edge both at QB and head coach and start the season with a hunger to return to the Playoffs. Even with RB Ray Rice suspended the for first two games the Ravens have adequate backups and have improved their receiving corps as well as their defensive talent. After a not surprising down season in 2013 the Ravens, who have proven i‚n the Harbaugh/Flacco era that they can win big games, should get off to a winning start in a key home Divisional contest.
Pick Made: Sep 7 2014 3:16AM PST


464 ATL 3.0 (-110) Hilton vs 463 NOS
Analysis:
This is an NFC South Divisional clash between a pair of teams with elite quarterbacks and proven head coaches. A³tlanta seeks to rebound from a disappointing 4-12 season in 2013 after hosing and losing the previous NFC Title game. Injuries had much to do with the Falcons’ decline last season which put consistent pressure on a vulnerable defense. The Saints’’ defense improved greatly last season and is poised to build on that this season. The 2014 Falcons figure to be less like the 2013 edition and more like the team that won 10 or more games and made the Playoffs in 4 of 5 seasons from 2008 through 2012 which makes for an attractive home underdog in a series that has seen the underdog cash more often than not over the past decade.
Pick Made: Sep 7 2014 3:17AM PST


480 KAN -3.0 (-120) Hilton vs 479 TEN
Analysis:
Kansas City started last season 9-0 before going 2-5 and then dropping a wild Wild Card game to Indianapolis. The early season success may have been due to the preparation of first season coach Andy Reid and his familiarity with the 3 NFC East teams who the Chiefs defeated in weeks two through four. Tennessee takes a step backwards with a new head coach and although Ken Whisenhunt is highly thought of the roster is not strong enough to suggest early season success. The Chiefs are another team in need of a good opening day effort with two road games on deck. QB Alex Smith is a decent "game manager" with an elite RB (Jamaal Charles) and an aggressive defense. If this game is played in November the Titans might be the better team as the gap between these teams is narrowing. But for now the Chiefs have the edge and, playing on a historically home field, look to put the disappo‚intment of last season behind them while the Titans begin a new era.
Pick Made: Sep 7 2014 3:19AM PST


467 CLE / 468 PIT UNDER 41.5 Hilton
Analysis:
This is a Divisional game between a Cleveland team many believe is on the rise and a Pittsburgh team that may be showing signs of decline following a pair of 8-8 seasons. And while that indeed may be true there is still a sizeable gap both in terms of talent and overall strength of their organizations. Pittsburgh is an elite franchise with Mike Tomlin entering his eighth season as Steelers coach and only Pittsburgh’s third head coach since 1969. Coach Mike Pettine ushers in a new era in Cleveland football, the seventh such era since the Browns re-entered the NFL in 1999. And QB Brian Hoyer is the Browns’ twelfth different Opening Day starter over these 15 seasons. With two tough road games up next, the Steelers cannot afford to take this game or this opponent lightly. But the best play in this ga‚me is the UNDER. Cleveland has a very solid defense but a very limited offense -- traits that are well suited for low scoring games. And this has been a low scoring series in recent seasons. Even as scoring has been up leaguewide over the past several sesaons, with average points per game rising steadily, the Browns and Steelers continue to play physical, defensive battles. The last 6 games between these teams have produce 27, 38, 34, 34, 22 and 17 total points. Because of the increased scoring there are a few points of extra value in this total, which more properly should be priced in th3 37 to 38 points range.
Pick Made: Sep 7 2014 3:27AM PST

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purelock la angels -150

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Diamond Dog Sports

#902: Marlins: +135 (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Teheran/Hand

#926: Rangers: +130 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Paxton/Holland

#907/908: Cardinals/Brewers: Over 7.5 (-110) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Wainwright/Nelson

#929/930: Giants/Tigers: Over 8.5 (-110) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Hudson/Lobstein

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NSA

25* NFL Eagles -10½
20* NFL New England -4
20* NFL New Orleans -3
(Top 3 Plays - Play Same Amount Each or just play 25* if you only want TOP Play)
------------------------
10* NFL Tampa Bay -2½
10* NFL Cincinnati +1½
5* NFL Tennessee +3

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Pick city:

3- philly
3- chic
2- ne

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VegasButcher

#1: Tennessee Titans +3

As was discussed in my NFL Preview I expect this Titans team to be very competitive this year (I have them winning their division) and against a Chiefs team that is bound to regress I expect them to hold their own. The odds dropped on this one but even at +3, I like the value on the Titans. They’re a young team and under Whisenhunt’s tutelage I expect them to take the big step forward today. Just like I outlined in the NFL Preview Titans barely lost to the Chiefs last year, when a lot of ‘unusual’ things happened in that game. If they play a cleaner game today, I expect the results to be different. Titans win this one and +3 just adds additional value.

#2: Baltimore Ravens -1

Like I’ve mentioned in my NFL Preview post, Baltimore was laying -2 at home against Cincy last year. An improved squad this season, they’re only laying -1 this time around. I like the value we are getting with the home team. AFC North battles tend to be close hard-fought contests, with home teams often pulling out wins, while losing on the road in the rematches. Baltimore is the home team today and I think we’ll see an improved team from last year, especially on the offensive end where Kubiak took over. Expect a close game between two teams that are very familiar with one another, with home team having the edge late.

#3: Teaser (6.5 pts):

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 / St Louis Rams +4

I’ve broken both teams down here NFL Preview, so you can read that over if you wish, but the key to this play is that I believe there’s too much value on the Rams. They were listed at -6 earlier in the summer, dropped to -3.5 after Bradford injury and are now at -2.5. That’s a 3.5-point swing pretty much due to Bradford getting injured. Too big of a swing, as Bradford is as mediocre QB as you get in this league. By teasing this even further, we go from Rams -6 to Rams +4 today, a 10-point difference. That’s a lot of pure value that I can’t pass up.

As far as Steelers go, they will have a huge advantage on the offensive end in this one. They are also at home, and I’ve described earlier that home teams in AFC North tend to be very competitive. Finally, Roethlisberger is 9-0 in his career against the Browns while playing at home. I fully expect him to be 10-0 after this game.

#4: Teaser (6.5 pts):

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 / Denver Broncos -1

Sorry to keep bringing this up, but all the relevant analysis is in here for this Denver/Colts game: NFL Preview. Basically the idea was that Denver was playing ‘out of their element’ in last year’s meeting @ Indianapolis and they made too many mental mistakes there. Plus Mathis was an absolute terror on the defensive end which caused major problems for Manning and Co. Well, Manning will get his left-tackle back this season, Mathis is suspended for this one, and now the game is in Denver. I expect a much different result in this one. At -6.5 I’d play Denver all day, and maybe even at -7. But the spread shifted a bit so I’ll simply teaser the Broncos down.

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Sports Junkie's





9/7/2014


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Game: Titans vs Chiefs


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Pick: Titans +3 (-110)


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Recommended
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Unit Play (Risk)


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5.5 Units

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday September 7, 2014
NFL Play #2

#468 PIT -.5 & #476 CHI -.5 1PM Eastern

6 Point Teaser

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Diamond Dog Sports

#469/470: Jaguars/Eagles: Over 51.5 (-110) (0.5*)

#475: Bills: +7.5 (-130) (1*)

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VALLEY SPORTS

5* Baltimore -2
4* Denver -7½
4* St Louis/Minnesota Under 43½
3* Tampa Bay -2
3* New Orleans -3
3* Baltimore/Cincinnati Over 42½

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WAYNE ROOT

MILLIONAIRE baltimore

Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) atlanta

Inner circle miami

Perfect play dallas

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EXECUTIVE

NFL

300 chiefs
250 bills

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Sports Pick Predictions

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (1 unit)
Baltimore Ravens -1 (1 unit)
Tennessee Titans +3.5 (3 units)
Miami Dolphins +4.5 (2 units)
Tampa Bay Bucs -3 (2 units)

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THE REAL SWOOP

Saints -3
Steelers -6.5
Bears -7
Titans +3.5
Dolphins +5

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SportsAction365 FRANK "BIG MONEY" SANTILLI'S

200* NFL New England -4
200* NFL New Orleans -3
200* NFL Cincinnati +1
100* NFL Tampa Bay -2½
100* NFL Tennessee +3
75* NFL St Louis -2½

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Arthur Ralph
Sunday: Super Pk Denver -7
Blue Ribbons: UNDER 44 1/2 Rams/Vikings,
Under Ravens/Cinci 42 1/2, Tampa Bay Bucs -1 1/2, Titans + 4

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Charlies Sports

500* Miami+4
500* Minnesota @ St. Louis Over 43
500* Buffalo+7
30* Philadelphia-10
20* Cleveland+6½
10* Washington+3 Free Play

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red suit

pats/dolphins over 46-

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North Coast

3 1/2 Denver
3 Baltimore,NE Pats,Tampa Bay

night marquee is Denver also

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skyblue picks


atlanta +3
oakland +5

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Syndicate Pittisburg

Sportsman Triple
from yesterday release Dolphins +

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SPORTS UNLIMITED/Marco D'Angelo

buffalo
dallas

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Gordon24

$400 houston-3

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Sheep
922 t.b. rays -105. (mlb)

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Sports bank
500
kansas city

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Asa 6- sf, 4- tb, 3- atl, den

big money balt

carolina sports 5- wash, 4- no, 3- tn, tb

doc's enterprises 5- den, 4- dall

dr. Bob pass

gameday 3- tb, 2- no, oak

harry bondi 5- balt, 3- jets, k city

inside info 3- chi, 2- wash

jack jones 20- oak, ne, 15- buff, tb, den

joe d 25- sf, 20- no, chi, 15- den, clev

lenny stevens 20- minn, tn,,10- jets, den

neri 3- pitt, jets, balt

northcoast 3 1/2 den, 3 balt, ne, tb

preferred picks 4- mia, 3- atl

pure lock sf

texas sportswire 5- dall over, 3- chi over, hou over

underdog wash

wildcat 10- hou, 7- indy, 5- atl

pointwise 3- tn, tb, pitt, den, balt

pick city 3- phil, chi, 2- ne

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VEGAS RUNNER

RLcrew NFL 6-PT Teaser = 468) PIT PK w/ 472) NYJ -1/2

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OC DOOLEY

2 Units Bengals / Ravens Under 43½

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Ron from Las Vegas

Pats/phins over 46.5

Pats -4

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Mike Anthony
Top play buffalo bills

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dives handicapping

falcons +3
bills +7

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Ben Burns NFL


Houston -3

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Larry Ness' 10* Division Game of the Year (ended LY on 21-9 NFL 10* run!)
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC North) is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.


The Cincinnati Bengals have made the postseason in each of the last THREE seasons (coinciding with the arrival of Andy Dalton) but each year, Cincy’s “playoff stay” has been short-lived, losing the team’s first game each year. "We have to win one in the playoffs," owner Mike Brown said. "It sticks in our craw. First, we have to get the opportunity again. "That is a long, hard road. We have a tough schedule, we respect our opponents, we take nothing for granted. But in our hearts -- in my heart, too -- I think we stack up OK and we are anxious to prove we are going to be a successful team again."


The Bengals get a tough assignment right out of the gate, looking to end a four-game losing streak in Baltimore (last won 17-14 in 2009). Dalton's passing yards and touchdown totals have increased in each of his three seasons. His 33 TDs in 2013 trailed only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and his 4,293 yards ranked seventh. However, he's completed 52.6 percent of his passes with three TDs, seven interceptions and been sacked 11 times while going 0-3 at Baltimore. His 52.2 passer rating in last year's loss was the second-lowest of his career.


Baltimore won the North in 2011 and 2012 and reached the playoffs in five straight seasons (won at least ONE game each playoff year!), prior to finishing 8-8 and missing the postseason a year after winning the Super Bowl "You look at last season -- it's over, it's said, it's done with, it didn't go the way we wanted," defensive end Chris Canty said. "We didn't end up in the postseason. Ultimately, we want to give ourselves an opportunity to compete for championships around here. We put that behind us, we try to focus on what we can do to improve, so we can be where we want to be at the end of this regular season."


The Ravens will open the season without RB Ray Rice, who earned a surprisingly short NFL-imposed two-game suspension for a domestic violence incident involving his then-fiancee. Though commissioner Roger Goodell recently admitted he was too lenient on Rice, the three-time Pro Bowl running back has been remorseful. A bigger issue for Baltimore is that when Rice returns, he'll need to bounce back from a 2013 season in which he dealt with a hip injury and rushed for 660 yards and four TDs, his lowest totals since recording 454 and no TDs as a rookie in 2008. Backup Bernard Pierce was not much better, gaining 436 yards and scoring twice, but will start Sunday. Baltimore's 3.1 yards per carry last season were the lowest in the NFL, and its 1,328 rushing yards were the worst in team history.


The expectation is that under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, QB Joe Flacco will concentrate more on shorter routes than the long balls he's known for. The hope is the new approach will help a questionable offensive line protect him and take the pressure off a running attack that averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry last season (lowest in the NFL since San Diego averaged 3.0 yards in 2000). Baltimore's defense ranked 12th last season in both points and yards allowed but the rookie additions of linebacker C.J. Mosley and tackle Timmy Jernigan will provide help to tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith.


A Super Bowl ‘hangover’ is not exactly something new, so the Ravens can be excused their 2013 season. However, unless the Ravens want to be playing second fiddle again to the Bengals (I think not), a win here looms large! Baltimore is 39-9 SU at home during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and has won FIVE of its six openers. The one loss coming last year in Denver in a HUGE revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season.


This game is basically a “pick-em” so it’s more than just a little significant to point out that Flacco has an 11-0 career home record in September, tied with Jay Schroeder for best among QBs in the Super Bowl era.


Good luck...Larry


Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 1 Goin' Over Total (2-0 start in CFB!)
My 10* NFL Opening Week 10* Goin Over Total is on Buf/Chi Over at 1:00 ET.


Chicago’s 1st-year head coach Marc Trestman's focus was on offense in 2013 and the Bears improved from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense, even with Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five due to Jay Cutler's groin and ankle injuries. However, Cutler still posted a career-high 89.2 passer rating with his best completion percentage (63.1) since 2007 with Denver. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall each had Pro Bowl seasons, giving Chicago one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL. They totaled 189 receptions for 2,716 yards and 19 touchdowns, and Jeffery ranked second in the league among receivers with 1,526 yards from scrimmage. The Bears recently added former Jets and Steelers receiver Santonio Holmes to provide some depth. Matt Forte is clearly one of the NFL's top all-purpose backs, ranking second with a career-high 1,339 rushing yards and third with 1,933 yards from scrimmage.


However, after opening 3-0, Chicago was only able to finish 8-8. Green Bay’s 8-7-1 record was good enough to with the NFC North, as the Bears missed the playoffs for the SIXTH time in seven years. Chicago’s defense ranked 30th (out of 32 teams) overall, allowing 394.6 YPG. The team’s 31 sacks tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the entire NFL plus the Bears allowed a league-high and club-record 2,583 rushing yards (161.4 YPG). The Bears have talked about how much the team's defense will improve in 2014 but while one doesn’t want to make too much of preseason results, it HAS to be noted that Chicago surrendered more yards per game than all but THREE teams during the preseason and were third-worst in scoring defense,.


Speaking of the preseason, Buffalo’s starters went 18 straight possessions without a TD in August until EJ Manuel's TD pass in the second half against Tampa Bay in the team’s third preseason game. Buffalo surprised many by taking Manuel 16th overall in 2013 and many are skeptical of his chances to be a quality QB in the NFL (consider me among those skeptics). “With EJ, obviously we're looking for him to progress and to keep coming along," head coach Doug Marrone said. "We're going to stick with him. I'm going to support him 110 percent. And we're going to get him better." The Bills finished 28th in the league with 193.9 passing YPG but were second with 144.2 rushing yards. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for 1,823 yards and 11 TDs on the ground.


The Bills took WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson) fourth overall in the 2014 draft. He is expected to give Manuel a go-to playmaker in the passing game but he's been slowed by bruised ribs. However, Watkins is expected to line up across from Mike Williams, acquired in an offseason trade with Tampa Bay. Buffalo’s team defense was a strength last year (Buffalo established a franchise record with 57 sacks in 2013) but the Bills also allowed 150 or more rushing yards SEVEN times (Forte should like that!). Chicago has shown the ability to move the ball against anyone, so expect just that here. I’m not sold on Manuel but the Chicago D should give him a chance to have a good game.


It’s hard to ignore the fact that 12 of Chicago’s 16 games went over in 2013 and the team’s final four games of last season averaged a whopping 67.0 points. Chicago has opened at home each of the last four seasons, winning each time. The Bears have averaged 31.7 PPG the last three years in those opening-season wins and I expect 30-plus points here as well. Considering Chicago’s defensive woes, that makes the play here, OVER!

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underdog washington redskins

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Teddy Covers

10* Tenn +4

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Spartan

JAX

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Millionaires
top
st louis rams
tampa

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Nover

Dallas Over 50.5

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POWER PLAY PICKS

1 Unit new England Patriots -3.5
1 Unit Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
1 Unit New York Jets -5.5
1 Unit Chicago bears -6.5

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BONES BEST BET (MLB)

DODGERS RL (-1.5) +100 *3*
Let’s discuss how bad Cahill is – ESPECIALLY against the Dodgers. Cahill owns a 1.61 WHIP and a 5.06 ERA on the season and a 2.20 WHIP and a 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts. Now against the Dodgers this season Cahill has been unbelievably bad. He has made 3 starts against the Dodgers this season giving up no less than 5 ER and has gone no deeper than 4IP. In those 3 starts he has an ERA of 13.78, a WHIP of 2.79 and is clearly 0-3 against the Dodgers this season. Now match that up with Greinke who has been lights out this season with his typical sub 3 ERA and low 1′s WHIP and we love the Dodgers here.

MARINERS ML + MARINERS / RANGERS UNDER 8.5 +208 *2*
The Mariners are winners of 5 straight while the Rangers are losers of 8 in a row. This pitching matchup is pretty great with Paxton vs Holland. Paxton in 47 innings this season owns a 1.08 WHIP and a 1.91 ERA. Holland has only made one start since coming back from injury but it was a 7 inning 1 run gem. Last season against the Mariners, Holland allowed just 5 ER through 4 games and 25.2 innings pitched – incredible numbers. Difference being that these aren’t the same Mariners and Holland certainly will not have the dynamic offense behind him that he did last year. We do think these pitchers keep this total very low and the better team earns the win.

ASTROS ML + ASTROS / ATHLETICS UNDER 7.5 +368 *2*
The Astros are actually red hot having won 7 of 10 overall – and put their best pitcher on the mound today – plenty of value here. Keuchel has been great this season with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.03 ERA. In 3 starts against Oakland this year he owns an ERA of just 2.03 having allowed only 5 ER through 22.1 innings. Hammel has been better for Oakland of late, which is why we like the under – however the Astros did rough him up in an A’s uniform already. This is a big value parlay here!

ANGELS ML + ANGELS / TWINS OVER 9 +202 *2*
The Angels have won 8 of 10 overall and seen the over in 5 of their last 6 games. The Angels have seen an average of 10.20 runs per game over their past 5, while the Twins have seen 11.80! The pitching matchup suggests big numbers with Wilson vs Darnell. CJ Wilson owns a 1.45 WHIP and a 4.66 ERA this season – but owns much worse stats of late with a 1.76 WHIP and a 5.28 ERA over his past 3 starts. Logan Darnell has made two starts and they have both been a train-wreck going a combined 9 innings with a WHIP of 2.22 and an ERA of 11.00. Expect this Angels offense to be all over Darnell.

BRAVES ML + BRAVES/MARLINS UNDER 7.5 +209 *2*
The Braves have only went over 7.5 in 2 of 10 games and the Marlins in 4 of 10. Teheran has a 1.08 WHIP and ERA under 3.00 this year. The Braves are 17-12 when he starts and they are 10-16 o/u. The Marlins are only 4-8 when Hand starts this year and the Braves hit lefties better than righties.

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LT Lock (aka Lance's Lock)

St. Louis -3
Tennessee +3
Dallas +5

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VEGAS RUNNER

Late MLB Steam moves

OVER – PIT/CWS

LAD -1.5

UNDER – KC/NYY

UNDER – NYM/CIN

PHILLIES

1st 5 Inn

OVER – ATL/MIA

UNDER – TOR/BOS

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Intpic

Added

Skins over
denver

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Indian Cowboy
Baseball




3*. Rangers/mariners over 8 1/2
WNBA
Over 154.5

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BONES BETS BET

NINERS @ COWBOYS – OVER 50 -110 *6* BEST BET

Absolutely LOVE this total! The Cowboys 2014 defense may go down as the worst defense in the history of the NFL when all said and done. They were absolute garbage last year and are now missing Ware, Lee, and Scandrick. The Niners defense which is known to be one of the best in the league will also have serious holes in the first month of the season as they will be without Smith, Bowman and Dorsey. In the 2013 season, the 49ers scored 31+ points 8 times. The Cowboys on the other hand allowed 31+ points 7 times. Week 1 sometimes scares over bettors away as they can be under the belief that teams come out slow…week 1 last year the Cowboys beat the Giants 36-31 and the Niners went into Lambeau and knocked off the Packers 34-28.

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Real Swoop

Added

49ers -3.5
49ers/Cowboys over 50
Broncos -7.5

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Insiderpropicks

Denver