9-29-14

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::handshake::

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GILZTIPS

Kansas City over 45

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RanJakSports

Patriots

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Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs +3 over New England Patriots
(System Record: 9-2, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 9-12-1

Rest of the Plays
Kansas City Chiefs + New England Patriots UNDER 46.5

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Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + Godoy Cruz UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 639-22, won last 4 games and a push)Overall Record: 639-532-96

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SportsLab

5 Units - Kansas City +4

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Mike O'Connor

2 Stars - Kansas City +3.5 (-120)

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Doc Sports

4 Unit Play. #274/#232 Take Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 over New England Patriots (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots are just a shell of themselves at this point in the season, losing to Miami and barely beating Oakland last week in Foxboro. The Chiefs are coming off a victory in Miami last Sunday (same team that beat New England in Week 1), and they have some weapons that can threaten this suspect Patriot defense. I love using a home underdog on Monday Night Football and feel the Chiefs will have a great home crowd advantage for this game. The home team is 13-4 ATS in New England's last 17 games. This one goes down to the wire, but the Chiefs find a way to pull it out late.

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Chiefs battle Patriots

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET

Line and Total: New England -3, Total: 45

The Chiefs look to get back to .500 when they host the Patriots on Monday night.

New England hosted the Raiders last Sunday and won 16-9 in a defensive slugfest. The club could play a similar game Monday night against a grind-it-out team in Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off of a 34-15 road victory over the Dolphins, and will now look to ground-and-pound against the Patriots. New England's offensive line has not looked good thus far in allowing seven sacks, and Kansas City has some fierce pass rushers that can put serious pressure on the quarterback.

These teams have not met since Nov. 21, 2011, when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 34-3 as 17-point favorites at home, but New England is 1-4 SU (but 4-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992. As the coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 16-5 ATS in road games against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Andy Reid, however, is 114-83 ATS against conference opponents since beginning his outstanding career as a head coach. RB Jamaal Charles (ankle) and S Eric Berry (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, while New England could be without CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder).

The Patriots are coming off of a 16-9 victory over the Raiders and their offensive line play really could have cost them the game. Tom Brady (632 pass yards, 5.5 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT) was sacked twice in the game and had no time to throw the ball at all as he was pressured all game. He still finished the game 24-of-37 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker against the Chiefs or he’ll end up eating dirt often on Monday. When Brady is throwing the ball this season, it’s mostly been in the direction of WR Julian Edelman (22 rec, 260 yards, 1 TD). Edelman had 10 catches for 84 yards in the win over Oakland and is a very good route runner that should be able to find holes against an underperforming Chiefs’ defense. TE Rob Gronkowski (11 rec, 116 yards, 2 TD) is also beginning to look more and more healthy by the week. He had three receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown against Oakland and played nearly half the snaps.

What has been winning games for the Patriots has been their defense. New England leads the NFL in passing defense (169 YPG, 5.0 YPA) and red-zone efficiency (33%), while ranking third in total defense (273 YPG) and is tied for fourth in scoring defense (16.3 PPG). The Pats have also done a great job stopping the run during their two-game win streak, holding opponents to a mere 60.5 rush YPG on 3.0 YPC. CB Darrelle Revis (1 INT) has been everything he was hyped up to be in New England, and he should make life on Chiefs QB Alex Smith very tough Monday night.

Kansas City has gotten off to a poor start after being last season’s breakout team, but the club did collect its first win of the season in Week 3, defeating the Dolphins 34-15 on the road. QB Alex Smith (643 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) was excellent in that game, going 19-of-25 for 186 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The one negative was that he took five sacks, increasing his total to 11 for the season. Smith is not going to take many chances against a relentless Patriots’ pass defense. He will manage the offense and rely on his running game to do the heavy lifting. Starting at running back for the Chiefs could be RB Knile Davis (214 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) if top RB Jamaal Charles (23 rush yards, 2.6 YPC, 0 TD) can’t go because of an ankle injury. Charles is the best running back in football when healthy, but the K.C. offense has not missed a step with Davis filling in. He rushed 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in the win over Miami and could do very well again on Monday against a Patriots defense that allowed 191 rushing yards to those same Dolphins in Week 1.

Kansas City’s defense is allowing a solid 223.7 passing yards per game (T-10th in NFL), but has surrendered 130.3 rushing yards per game (23rd in league) on a hefty 5.1 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Their performance against the Dolphins was their best of the year as a unit and they will need to carry that momentum into this matchup against the Pats. K.C. has not forced a single turnover yet this year, and New England hasn't had a giveaway since Week 1.

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Patriots or Chiefs? NFL Bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

This week, Monday Night Football heads to Kansas City as the Chiefs host the New England Patriots. It will be the first meeting between the two teams since November of 2011, when the Pats prevailed 34-3, covering as 17-point home favorites.

The Pats opened as 4-point road faves this time around, but oddsmakers adjusted the line to +3.5 and then to +3, where it currently stands.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Richard Hill of New England blog “Pats Pulpit” and Joel Thorman of Kansas City blog “Arrowhead Pride” strap on the pads and debate which team will not only win, but cover the spread Monday night.

WHY NEW ENGLAND WILL COVER

Hungry on offense

The offense hasn't functioned well over the past three weeks. Even if the Patriots get a lead, they won't be easing up at any point. Expect a ruthless assault by the Patriots offense that can put points on the board.

Elite defense

Even if the Patriots can't post their "usual" 30 points per game, the defense will do their part holding down the backend of the spread. Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are going to become household names on Monday night and Darrelle Revis will retake the crown as top cornerback in the league against Dwayne Bowe.

Little to fear

While the fans might be incredible and they might take back the record for loudest fans, it still comes down to the play on the field. Outside of the Chiefs defensive line, there's little to fear. Their tight end, Kelce, might be great. Their running back, Charles, might be healthy. There are question marks everywhere, and hopefully Bill Belichick has the answer key.

WHY KANSAS CITY WILL COVER

Chiefs front seven can get to Tom Brady

The Chiefs employ pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali coming around the edge. First round pick Dee Ford will get in on a dozen or so snaps. Dontari Poe is in the middle. The Chiefs have the personnel to disrupt a Patriots offensive line that has had its issues protecting Tom Brady.

Chiefs have the Arrowhead advantage

Granted, the Chiefs have not been the hottest team at their own home field lately. But with a raucous home crowd behind them on national TV, you can believe the Chiefs will come to play. Based on the 20 games we've seen from Andy Reid in Kansas City, the Chiefs are unlikely to get blown out. This will be a close game.

The Chiefs have to get a turnover...eventually

With the Chiefs ability to pressure Brady, you have to think a turnover is coming, whether that's an interception or a forced fumble. They have yet to create a turnover yet this season which is so out of whack from what we saw last year. There's no way the Chiefs are going a quarter of their season without a turnover ... right?

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Monday Night Football: Patriots at Chiefs

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 46.5)

Tom Brady is taking plenty of punishment through the first three games of the 2014 season, but the New England Patriots have managed to put together back-to-back wins. The Patriots hope to have some of their problems along the offensive line sorted out when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. The Chiefs picked up their first win last week and are hoping to have running back Jamaal Charles at full strength by Monday.

New England lost longtime offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to retirement in the offseason and traded away Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins late in training camp, and those voids are proving difficult to fill. That struggling line needs to figure out a way to stop Kansas City linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who have combined for five sacks in the first three weeks. The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL with nine sacks and got to Ryan Tannehill four times in last week's 34-15 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs +4 home dogs, but that is now +3. The total opened 44.5 and is up to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - S Don Jones (Questionable, hamstring), CB Alfonzo Dennard (Questionable, shoulder), WR Aaron Dobson (Questionable, foot). Chiefs - RB Jamaal Charles (Questionable, ankle), S Eric Berry (Doubtful, heel).

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-3) + Chiefs (+0.25) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.25

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow toward the NW endzone at 5 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "New England survived a scare from Oakland to move into a first place tie with Buffalo. Patriots have covered five of their last six on Monday night. Kansas City off its first win of the season but consecutive games against Patriots and 49ers will be a challenge. Chiefs 0-6 ATS L6 home games." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): New England’s defense carried it to back-to-back wins the last two weeks, holding Minnesota and Oakland to a total of 16 points. Brady, who has yet to pass for 250 or more yards through the first three games while being sacked seven times, did not point the finger directly at the line but suggested the offense as a whole is struggling. “There are a lot of things we have to ramp up,” Brady told reporters. “It’s not just one thing on our offense, and we’re trying to identify the things we need to do better. … It’s not really one area, it’s all areas.”

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, O/U 1-2): Charles (high ankle sprain) was inactive last week after totaling nine carries in the first two games but practiced on a limited basis Thursday. Kansas City reached deep into its reservoir of skill players at Miami and came up with some capable replacements in running back Knile Davis, who ran for 132 yards and a score, and Joe McKnight, who caught a pair of TD passes from Alex Smith. “You’re bringing new guys to work in there and they’re just learning the system but they are playing their hearts out trying to make sure they get everything down,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Again, I’m proud of the guys for the way they are filling in and doing their job.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in Week 4.
* Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last five Monday games.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bettors are behind the Patriots.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Titans (+7 1/2) on Sunday and likes the Patriots on Monday.

The deficit is 518 sirignanos.

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Hondo

No Pat hand for Hondo

The great Randy Bullock heroically booted a late 50-yard field goal on Sunday, giving Hondo a cover with the Texans that reduced his accounts payable to 1,575 buchanans.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will back be singing hail to the Chiefs — 10 units on Kansas City to beat the spot against the struggling Patsies.

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Monday

A small profit day in the NFL on Sunday. One Monday Night Football play on my card for Monday. Best of luck.

-EZ

2* (274) Kansas City Chiefs +3

In a very suprise move the Patriots traded away veteran offensive lineman Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the season was about to begin. This move is not looking so good now as the New England offensive line has been pretty leaky. Quarterback Tom Brady has taken a beating in two of the first three games, and now this struggling line must deal with pressure from Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe. The Chiefs offense has not been great so far this season, but they seemed to get things going in their win over the Dolphins. KC also shouldn't have to win a shoot out as the Patriots offense doesn't look like the New England offenses of old as they are averaging just 301 yards and 22 points per game. Take the points.

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Colin Coherd

Blazing Five

Pick/Score/Wise Guys

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5/Kansas City Chiefs 23 New England Patriots 24/Agreement

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Dr. Bob

I have added Kansas City +3.5 -120 for 2-Stars in the Monday night game.

(274)**Kansas City +3.5 -120 for 2-Stars up to +3.5 -130

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Today's NFL Picks New England at Kansas City The Patriots head to Kansas City tonight to face a Chiefs team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games. New England is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/24)


Game 273-274: New England at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.145; Kansas City 133.380
Dunkel Line: New England by 6; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2); Under

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ROBERT FERRINGO (NFL)

2* New England Patriots-3.5

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NO LIMIT SPORTS

5* NE Patriots-2.5

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Maddux Sports

10* Kansas City +3
10* New England vs K.C - Under 47

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wayne root

millionaires KC

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VEGAS HOTSHEET

#273 New England -3.5

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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

PERRY’S SOCCER CLUB season record (-1.66)

(ITALY SERIE A) – SS LAZIO ROMA @ US PALERMO PK – OVER 2 -150 (3PM)

(SWEEDEN ALLSVENSKAN) – OREBRO SK @ GEFLE IF – UNDER 2.5 -105 (1PM)

(SWEEDEN SUPERTTAN) – HUSQVARNA FF @ GIF SUNDSVALL – OVER 3 -133 (1PM)

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SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Romania » Liga I » Pandurii – Otelul

Opinion: Pandurii -1(Asian Handicap)

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NFL | NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play Over – Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
44-17 over the last 10 seasons. ( 72.1% | 25.3 units )

NFL | NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play On – Any team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced
25-5 over the last 5 seasons. ( 83.3% | 0.0 units )

NFL | NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play On – Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games
62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units )

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Cappers Access

Chiefs +3

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Arthur Ralph's
Trophy play Over the total 46 Chiefs/Pats

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Play Of The Day

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs +3

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

#273 New England Patriots -2½ over the Kansas City Chiefs (Bet Level 2) (Spread Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 8:30 PM EST

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ANTHONY MICHAEL (Play of the Day)

#273 New England -3 (8:30 edt) ESPN

The Patriots love Monday night since they have covered 9 of their last 13 games in the Monday night spotlight. Also they have covered 7 of their last 10 games against Kansas City. The Patriots offense has not been outstanding but their defense has been excellent. Look for a big effort out of the Pats here to get this win and cover.

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Blasscyk WINS

NE vs KC – Under 47.5

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David Pride

10 Units New England Patriots -3

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LCM Sports

6 point teaser

KC Chiefs and over parlay

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Charlies sports

Monday Night Football Winner Line Side & Total Parlay

Kansas City+3' (500*)
New England @ Kansas City under 48 points. (500*)

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Michael Black

Patriots -3

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Bob Balfe

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3


There are games in which you just can’t find a reason to back a team and tonight there is no reason at all Kansas City should be backed by any gambler. I don’t have a crystal ball and in gambling anything can happen, but the Kansas City Defense is missing 4 key opening day starters and on offense are without 2 opening day starters and have two rookies starting. Simply the put only the center has ever taken a snap in a Kansas City Chiefs Uniform outside of this season. The Patriots pretty much remain intact from last year on both sides of the ball with Revis being a major upgrade at corner. On offense every last starter has been in this system for over a full football season. The special team’s edge also goes to the Patriots when it comes to kicking field goals as the Chiefs are starting a rookie. Kansas City is usually a good team at home, but with all of these guys on IR and key players nursing injuries I just don’t see them stopping Tom Brady. This Kansas City Defense has yet to generate a turnover this year. I am not saying this is the same New England team as last year. The Patriots are going to struggle against very good football teams, but in this spot they are just going to take advantage of a football team that has been decimated with injuries. There is only one logical play for me to tonight and that is New England. I always say MNF is not a game and more so an event which means anything can happen, but with the information I just gave you if the Chiefs can win with all of those key players out then so be it. Take the Patriots.

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Burns: Pats/ Chiefs Under

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Dr. Bob Sports

**KANSAS CITY (+3.5 -120) 24 New England 20

Mon Sep-29-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 274 Over/Under 45.0
After an opening week loss at home to Tennessee, the Chiefs have played well the past two weeks, losing to the Broncos in a competitive game and then destroying the Dolphins last week in Miami 34-15. Despite multiple key injuries the past few weeks, Kansas City put on a strong defensive performance against the Dolphins, holding quarterback Ryan Tannehill to just 191 passing yards at 4.1 yps while sacking him four times. In addition, luck was not on their side as they were -2 in turnovers, both being fumbles. In fact, the Chiefs have yet to get a takeaway this season after leading the AFC in that category last year. This game features the leagues’ best team in turnover differential at +6 in the Patriots taking on the leagues’ worst team in this category in the Chiefs (-5). As you probably know, turnovers play a huge role in determining a teams’ fate and this game features two quarterbacks that project some of the lowest turnover percentages in the league. Fumbles are almost entirely random and the Chiefs have been unlucky in this department so far this season, while the Patriots have been about average.

The Patriots so far this season have been well below average offensively, generating only 304 total yards at 4.4 yppl against teams that allow 335 yards at 5.1 yppl, but they have been good defensively, allowing just 274 yards at 4.4 yppl. The problem the Patriots have had offensively is in the offensive line where they have not been good, as well as the lack of skilled players on the outside. They don’t match up well this week against a good Chiefs front that should be able to apply pressure with LB’s Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. In addition, Kansas City’s defense has struggled against the run so far but should have a better time containing a Patriots ground attack that has underperformed so far this season and could only generate 83 yards at 2.9 ypr last week against the Raiders. With some struggles on their own offensive line, the Chiefs will likely utilize a quick passing game, a strategy that best suits QB Alex Smith’s abilities and negates the Patriots ability to rush the passer. It also looks like Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles will be back for this game and he will help not only rushing the ball but in the passing game.

Kansas City qualifies in 61-28-2 and 40-12-2 situations and benefit from a negative 17-44 statistical match-up indicator that plays against the Patriots. My ratings only favor New England in this game by about a point so we have some line value as well. The Patriots play much better at home where they are 10-0 SU since the beginning of last season, and tend to not play as well on the road where they are 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS. Take the Chiefs +3.5 -120 for 2-Stars up to +3.5 -130.

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World's Worst Picker

New England

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Brandon Lang

50 DIME MONDAY NIGHT
MONEY MOVE #3 OUT OF 4

Chiefs +3

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jeff barone
chiefs

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EXECUTIVE

200 KC Chiefs

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JAMES JONES

NFL – Kansas City Chiefs(+3)-119…(2*)

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The Wager Wire
Smartbets -- 1u
368 Notre Dame +1
386 Mississippi St -1

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Sportswagers

New England @ KANSAS CITY
New England/KANSAS CITY under 46½ +100

This isn’t your big brother’s New England Patriots anymore. Tom Brady has been in the league for 14 years. His 37-year-old body has taken a beating over the years and he doesn’t get up off the ground as quickly as he used to. Statistically speaking, Brady is the very definition of average with approximately 200 passing yards per game. Racking up 300 yards every game and throwing for 3 TD’s is a thing of the past. The Patriots are no longer a team that can play from behind and win games 35-30. Bill Belichick knows it and because he’s the smartest coach in the league, he works with what he has to make it work. When the Patriots aren’t running the ball, Brady will use the short passing game to complete four or five yard passes. The Patriots are an extremely efficient third down team that uses the clock in all of their offensive possessions to wear down the defense. At home against the Raiders last week, New England was happy to win 16-9 and those are the type of wins the Patriots will record more often than not. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in the league against the pass and that does not bode well for the Chiefs.

Alex Smith ended up with three passing TD’s against Miami last week but he only threw for 186 yards. However, Smith was also sacked five times despite only attempting 30 passes. Against the Broncos, in Denver no less, K.C lost 24-17 and against Tennessee in their opener, the Chiefs won 26-10. In between those two games was the aforementioned game against the Fish. The 34 points the Chiefs put up on Miami was nothing more than an aberration. Kansas City possesses a pedestrian offense that is not going to outwit a coaching staff that is as intelligent as the Patriots are. Totals on Patriots games are still around the same number as they were when Brady was in his prime. Intellectually, Brady is in his prime but physically he’s far past it. Slowly and methodically Brady uses that intellect to grind out victories. This one has a much better chance of being 17-13 than it does of 27-24 and that is how we’re playing it.


Our Pick
New England/KANSAS CITY under 46½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

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SPORTSLOCKSMITH

3* - KANSAS CITY +3 (-110)

Arrowhead is attempting to break the sound record again tonight, Royals rally is right now in the parking lot of both stadiums, fans will be fired up with the Royals making the playoffs for the first time in 29 years. Add in, this is the worst Patriots team in a decade, and the Chiefs have seemed to hit their stride the past two weeks, despite the injuries. Knile Davis was very solid last week rushing for 32 times for 132 yard and a touchdown! However tonight we get the beast Charles as probable! A healthy Jamaal, potentially De'Anthony Thomas from Oregon playing in his 1st game...and you have the recipe for a Kansas City win.

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Just Cover Baby

4* Chiefs +3
2* Pats/Chiefs Over 47

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NORTHCOAST MNF

MN Magic play is -UND 46.5 NE/KC

THE 2* MN marquee is Also UND 46.5 NE/KC

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Paul Leiner

1000* Under 46.5 Chiefs/Patriots

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THE REAL SWOOP

2* Patriots vs Chiefs – Under 47

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BUDIN 100 dime play Kansas city

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HARRY BONDI

NFL FREE PLAY

OVER 45 POINTS - New England at Kansas City
8:30 p.m. ET
Everyone is expecting a defensive slugfest but we think both clubs will try to take to the airways knowing that yards on the ground are going to be at a premium tonight. Look for Tom Brady to employ a short passing game to move down the field while Kansas City’s best chance to win is definitely through the air against a Patriots defense that has done a great job stopping the run allowing just 60.5 rushing yards per game. Go OVER 45 points.

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Dwayne Bryant

2* KC +3
2* KC ML

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WINSPORTSNOW

Monday Football Best Bets Report
Chiefs +3.5

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Kelso

Kansas City

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Tiger

Second leg of a teaser: Buffalo +10 and KC +10.5.

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Godfather Locks

Kansas City

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DATAMAN (GILBERG)

5 Unit Total Play · Under [273] New England Patriots vs. [274] Kansas City Chiefs
Mon Sep 29th, 2014 8:30pm EDT

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RTG Sports

3* Patriots/Chiefs Under 47

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Al DeMarco

5 Dime Chiefs

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Scott Delaney

30 Dime Patriots / Chiefs Under

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Jason Jordan


"KC Chiefs +3.5 and Under 47.5
I am unloading on both. I have 500k on these 2 games."

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VegasButcher - Under 47 Chiefs/Patriots

The success of an NFL team can start and end with an offensive line. So far this season, both Pats’ and Chiefs’ O-lines have really struggled. KC ranks 31st with a 9.8% ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) while NE is 18th with a 5.9% rate. Maybe that’s part of the reason why Brady ranks 25th in QB-Efficiency while Smith is right behind him at 26th. That’s out of 35 qualified starters through week 3. Brady is averaging a terrible 5.5 PY/A, the worst mark of his career and way below his career average of 7.4. Defensively, KC’s D-line ranks 3rd in the league with an ASR of 8.3% and NE’s is 13th with a 6.6% mark. Both of these defenses feature very good pass-rushers, capable of creating a lot of havoc on the O-lines. I doubt that we’ll see many big plays via the pass down the field, as I don’t think either team will have a ton of time to let the pass-plays develop. Naturally, I expect both to rely on the run-games. Charles is probable for this one, though his effectiveness might be at less than 100% while Ridley/Vereen are very good runners themselves. While New England comes in ranking #1 against the pass defensively, they’re only 18th against the run, and KC is 23rd in that area. Running the ball and controlling the clock might be the right game-plan for both of these squads and that favors a lower scoring game. I like this one to stay low scoring.

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GoodFella

3* Monday Night GOW - Kansas City

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Locksmith Sports (Adds)

Chairmans Play: 4* Kansas City/New England Under 47 -110

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Rooster
Kansas City +3 1/2

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Art Aronson
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs +3 +100 8:30 EST

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Jack Jones

20* New England

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King Creole NFL Total
double-dime bet
273 NEP / 274 KAN UNDER 46.5 Hilton
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Analysis:
Mondays have been All About the OVERS in the last three weeks. So far, Monday night games have gone 3-1 O/U so far this season. That changes tonight.
What has happned to Tom Brady? The main man of the Pats is now #23 in QB Ratings for the season (82.9) off 3 straight sub-par outings. His very LOW yard-per-attempt avg of 5.4 is #30 in the league, as he is no longer throwing the deep ball. His offensive line is putrid. And New England has YET to score a 2nd half TD this season! A Monday night matchup against the #25 QB (Alex Smith) means a LOW-scoring outcome… we’re ‘All In’.
The CHIEFS / PATRIOTS series has gone 0-4 O/U in the last 4 meetings, with an avg of just 38.0 ppg.
Give some credit to New England for a solid defense thus far. They’ve allowed only 13 total pts in their last 2 games.
1-9-1 O/U since 2005: All GAME11 or less road favs of < 7 pts (Pats) who allowed < 10 pts in EACH of their last two games.
On the fli…p side, the host Chiefs are off a shocking road win over the Dolphins.
5-17 O/U last 4 years: All underdogs of < 7 pts off a SU road dog win that also went OVER the Total (Chiefs). These teams have gone 1-9 O/U when the OU line is > 44 pts.
Kansas City plays the AFC West Division… New England plays in the AFC East Division.
Since 2008, AFC WEST Division home teams (Chiefs) have gone1-10 O/U versus an AFC EAST Division opponent (Patriots) in Game 10 or less when the OU Line is 40 or more points.
In this PRIMETIME game, we note that MONDAY night home teams playing off a SU underdog WIN (Chiefs) have gone 1-9 O/U when the OU line is < 51 points.
And on the flip side for New England:MONDAY night road teams playing off BB ‘Unders’ in a row (Patriots) have gone 1-8-1 O/U in the last four years when the OU Line is 48 > points.


The good old days of ‘Automatic Patriot OVERS’ are kaput. No SHOOTOUT in this one...

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John Anthony

Kc Chiefs and the Under

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blasscyk wins

Patriots -3

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Diamond Dog Sports

#274: Chiefs: +3.0 (-110) (1*)

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

New England (273) AT Kansas City (274)
Latest Line: Chiefs +3; Total: 47.5

The Patriots have won with defense the past couple of weeks, keeping opponents out of the end zone since less than five minutes into the first quarter of their game against the Vikings two weeks ago. Kansas City was led in its 34-15 win in Miami by RB Knile Davis, who carried 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in place of injured RB Jamaal Charles (ankle). The Chiefs return home for the first time since they were embarrassed by the Titans, 26-10, in the season opener. Charles and Kansas City safety Eric Berry (ankle) both enter the week as questionable for this one.

StatFox Six Pack:
KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS at home against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 27-13 UNDER at home in the first month of the season since 1992.
Andy Reid is 58-39 ATS as an underdog.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS away after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-10 ATS away after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.

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Fat jack

New England

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Exodus to Black

NFL

KC+3.5

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PRO PLAYS WINS

Patriots/Chiefs Over 47

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Sheep

Under 46.5

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Ray Falco

KC Chiefs

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Kelso

50 kc
15 under