10-6-14 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:30 PM

'Seahawks listed as MNF favorites

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Seattle -7, Total: 46

The Redskins look to rebound from a bad Week 4 performance with a home victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Monday night.

Seattle is coming off its bye week, prior to which it won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, who faces a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and 4 TD passes in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. Washington has now given up 82 points and 828 yards during its two-game losing skid.

The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013 when the Seahawks won 24-14 on the road. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards. Four of the past six games played between these teams in Washington have gone Over the total.

In the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 28-12 ATS (70%) in all lined games, including 11-3 ATS (79%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle, however, is 7-18 ATS (28%) after a bye week since 1992.

TEs Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion), OT Trent Williams (knee), LB Akeem Jordan (knee) and DE Kedric Golston (groin) are are listed as questionable for Washington.

Seattle is in pretty good shape injury-wise after its bye week, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, and both LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) and CB Tharold Simon (knee) are both questionable for Monday's game.

The Seahawks escaped their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos in their last game, winning 26-20 in overtime at home. Their defense continues to be a nightmare to run against, allowing just 72.3 yards per game on the ground (5th in NFL) on an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll try to take Redskins top RB Alfred Morris out of this game and make Kirk Cousins beat them through the air. Cousins is coming off of a miserable performance, and Seattle’s defense will apply pressure early to prevent him from getting comfortable, but its pass defense has been lit up for 572 passing yards and 5 TD over the past two games.

Offensively, the Seahawks are all about controlling the pace of the game. They’ll feature RB Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) heavily in the early going, although the Redskins are allowing just 87.0 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (651 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) is likely salivating over this matchup. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in every game this season and could be even more effective against this Redskins passing defense that was downright embarrassing versus the Giants last week. Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll, will try to find clever ways to get the ball into WR Percy Harvin’s hands. The lightning-quick wide receiver leads the team in targets (17), catches (15) and receiving yards (106), and has the ability to hurt defenses as a pass catcher, but also with jet sweeps and wide receiver reverses. He is a dynamic open-field runner, who has gained 86 yards on just six carries (14.3 YPC) this year.

The Redskins will do everything they can to move past their horrible performance against the Giants in Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins (934 pass yards, 8.2 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT) will need to look at the tape and find ways to take better care of the football. He was blindly throwing the ball around the field against the Giants and was responsible for five of his team's six turnovers with 4 INT and one lost fumble. If he does that again, the ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary will do plenty of damage. WR Pierre Garcon (24 rec, 255 yards, 1 TD) is a key player in this game, as he’ll need to use his quickness to get open against the Seahawks’ zone. Garcon had just two catches for 28 yards against the Giants, but he also had a bad Week 2 and responded with 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Redskins will lean on RB Alfred Morris (316 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) plenty in this game. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, but the last time these teams played, Morris rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries. Washington would be wise to stick with what was working the last time they played this team.

The tight end position is something to monitor in this game. Kirk Cousins loves to get his tight ends involved, but he could be without both injured TEs Jordan Reed and Niles Paul (21 rec, 313 yards, 1 TD) on Sunday.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:31 PM

Seahawks or Redskins? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

The Seattle Seahawks had an extra week to prepare for the Washington Redskins as the two are set to square off on Monday Night Football this week.

Washington is coming off an awful 45-14 loss - as a 3-point fave - to the New York Giants last week, while the last time the Seahawks played, they registered a memorable overtime victory over the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch.

Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as 7-point road favorites for this game and most shops are now dealing a 7.5.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Rob Davies of Seahawks blog Field Gulls and Scott Jennings of Redskins blog Hogs Haven strap on the pads to debate not just who wins, but which team will cover the spread when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Redskins Monday night.

WHY SEATTLE WILL COVER

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

Seahawks have won at FedEx on the big stage before

It's been less than two years since Seattle traveled to D.C. for a game with far greater ramifications than this one. The Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 on NFC Wild Card weekend in January 2013 and this after they'd looked shell shocked when staring at a 14-0 deficit before the first quarter had even ended.
Not only did Seattle score 24 unanswered points that day, but Washington then never ran a single play inside Seattle territory for the remaining three quarters. The Seahawks won't feel in the slightest bit intimidated on Monday night as they know they can win in the Nation's capital. Russell Wilson was still a rookie two years ago when leading that comeback. He's twice the quarterback he was then.

No more complacency in Seattle

The San Diego Chargers beat the Seahawks at exactly the right time. Maybe Seattle was looking past an inconsistent team to a matchup with the Broncos a week later. Whatever the reasons, that defeat instilled in Earl Thomas once again his "championship spirit" and he may as well have been speaking for the whole team. Yes, Washington was blown away by the Giants last time out, which has them ultra focused this week, but this is no longer a Seattle team that simply thinks it can beat anybody simply by showing up. The Seahawks are battle hardened all over again and won't be taking anybody lightly. The Chargers did a bad thing for the rest of the NFL.

One dimensional Washington?

If Kirk Cousins truly has shaken off his four interception nightmare against the Giants, then fair play to him. However, that's extremely unlikely and he faces the most vaunted secondary in the league this week. He looked fine against the Jaguars and Eagles, but Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor and Maxwell aren't the Jaguars or Eagles. An early pick could prove disastrous, but, even without that, the Redskins may opt to pound the rock behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu...against a stout Seahawks run defense giving up just 72.3 rushing yards per game. The confidence Cousins has will prove pivotal to the outcome and the only way he'd feel more daunted this week was if the game was being played in Seattle.

WHY WASHINGTON WILL COVER

Scott Jennings writes for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @HogsHaven.

Redskins' injury report Is getting smaller

Last week the Redskins played on a short week with 17 players on the injury list. The entire defensive line was banged up and it showed against the Giants. Jason Hatcher was missing the burst in his first step last week while dealing with a hamstring injury, but he has been a full participant in practice. DeSean Jackson has been a full go this week, and looks ready to make some plays against his old friend Richard Sherman.

Tight Ends will find space against Seattle's defense

The Redskins top two tight ends, Jordan Reed and Niles Paul, will both be able to find openings against Seattle's defense. Paul was having a breakout season in Jay Gruden's offense until he was knocked out of the Giants game. Both will be listed as questionable for the game, but at least one will play and take advantage of a weak spot for Seattle.

The Redskins pass rush will get to Russell Wilson

The Redskins front seven was dealing with several injuries last week, but has had 11 days to heel between games. Jason Hatcher has been a force since the start of the year, and will disrupt Seattle's offensive line. Ryan Kerrigan leads the league in sacks with five, and should be able to add to that total Monday. The Redskins secondary is questionable, so getting quick pressure on the QB will be key to hanging with Seattle.

Join the debate. Which team covers on Monday Night Football: Seattle or Washington?

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:31 PM

Monday Night Football: Seahawks at Redskins

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 45)

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday night. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on Nov. 27, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on Sept. 20, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week 2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week 3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened the Seahawks as 7-point road faves, but are now -7.5. The total opened at 46 and dropped to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, ribs). Redskins - DB Trenton Robinson (Questionable, ankle), LB Akeem Jordan (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), TE Niles Paul (Questionable, concussion).

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.75) + Redskins (3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7.75

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "There has been an interesting pattern this season in the NFL where teams are getting blown out on Thursday night, then bouncing back with a solid effort in their next game. It's happened each of the past two weeks with both the Steelers and then Buccaneers winning outright as an underdog after blowout Thursday night losses. It makes sense as these teams get a semi-bye week with the extra rest and preparation time. Washington is now in this bounce back situation as the Redskins were awful in their loss to the Giants with a 6-1 turnover deficit. Seattle is also in a good situation as they have the benefit of a bye week to recover and regroup after their high profile overtime win against the Broncos two weeks ago. Seattle should also be fully focused for this game especially since it's a national TV Monday night matchup." Steve Merrill.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the NFL with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last eight vs. NFC

CONSENSUS: 65 percent are backing the Seahawks

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:31 PM

Seahawks trending Under vs. NFC teams
Stephen Campbell

The Seattle Seahawks have been a fantastic Under play against NFC teams, as seven of their last eight games versus the conference have gone Under the total.

The reigning Super Bowl champions travel to D.C. for a date with the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football action.

The Seahawks are currently 7.5-point road faves with a total of 45.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:31 PM

Seattle covering with ease on grass fields
Stephen Campbell

Grass surfaces have equated to easy covers for Seattle Seahawks backers. In the Seahawks' previous eight games played on the natural surface, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread.

That's a trend their spread backers will hope continues when they take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field (a grass field) Monday.

Seattle is presently 7.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 45 for the contest.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:32 PM

MLB Preview: Dodgers (94-68) at Cardinals (90-72)

Game: 3
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Date: October 06, 2014 1:00 PM EDT

ST. LOUIS (AP) - John Lackey stepped to the podium, minus the obvious status symbols: his two World Series rings. No reason to brag.

'No, I don't wear them very much,' he said Sunday. 'Maybe to a wedding or stuff like that. They're a little big and a little flashy, not exactly my style.'

The St. Louis Cardinals acquired Lackey from World Series champion Boston at the trade deadline for occasions just like this, knowing NL Division Series game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers won't be too big for the 35-year-old right-hander. Lackey won a game in each series last fall, including the Game 6 clincher over St. Louis.

'Yeah, definitely take pride in that,' Lackey said. 'I want to pitch well this time of year, but things I've done in the past aren't going to help me tomorrow. '

Lackey (14-10) starts after the Cardinals split in California against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Los Angele left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-7), recovered from shoulder irritation, makes his first start since Sept. 12.

Through an interpreter, Ryu thought it an 'almost zero percent chance' that the shoulder would be a factor.

'It's an honor for them to trust me with this tomorrow,' Ryu said. 'I don't want to let them down.'

Ryu pitched seven scoreless innings last year to beat the Cardinals in Game 3 of the NL Championship Series.

Manager Don Mattingly described the pitcher as 'pretty unflappable.'

'He seems to be that guy that nothing really bothers him,' Mattingly said. 'I'm sure he's a little, like everyone else, excited and anxious and all those things.'

Los Angeles was 0-3 at Busch Stadium in last year's playoffs, shut out twice. The Dodgers scored two runs and totaled 16 hits in 31 innings with no homers.

'Five-game series, things can go anybody's way,' closer Kenley Jansen said after striking out two during a perfect ninth inning that completed the Dodgers' 3-2 win that evened the series. 'Got to go there and steal one.'

The Cardinals did not work out after taking an overnight flight that touched down in St. Louis about 6 a.m. A tarpaulin covered the infield later Sunday when about a dozen Dodgers players, including Clayton Kershaw, played catch and ran sprints in left field under the lights.

Shelby Miller (10-9) makes his first career postseason start in Game 4 on Tuesday. Dan Haren (13-11) is the probable for the Dodgers, but Haren will also prepare as if he's starting Game 3 in case he's needed in long relief.

'Yeah, we have flexibility,' Mattingly said. 'We don't know what's going to happen tomorrow for us. Anything could happen with Hyun-Jin.'

The Dodgers could turn to Kershaw on short rest in Game 4 if they are facing elimination. Kershaw is favored to win his third Cy Young Award in four years after going 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA, but he has a 1-4 record and a 5.20 ERA in the postseason and twice straight has been pummeled by the Cardinals.

Ryu threw 43 pitches in a three-inning simulated game on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. He lasted just one inning in his last start of the season, but Mattingly pointed out he's also thrown two bullpen sessions.

'It's not like we're just throwing him out there,' the manager said.

Still, stamina could be a factor, and the Dodgers have had middle-relief issues. Rookie Pedro Baez allowed Matt Holliday's three-run homer that put the Cardinals ahead 10-6 in the opener, and J.P. Howell gave up Matt Carpenter's tying two-run homer in the seventh inning in Game 2.

Unlike the Cardinals, who have All-Star setup man Pat Neshek ahead of Trevor Rosenthal, the Dodgers have had to mix and match.

'You just can't worry about that,' Jansen said. 'What happened yesterday happened. That doesn't happen very often.'

After a mid-September break to recharge from a dead arm, Lackey allowed three earned runs in 14 1-3 innings his last two outings. He'll be making his first appearance since Sept. 24.

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny wasn't surprised Lackey didn't take it well when he got skipped in September.

'Yeah, I've had some interesting looks and conversations,' Matheny said. 'Yeah, every time I go to take him out, I know it's going to be something. He's done a nice job of walking that fine line of making it known he'd like to stay in the game, but also not crossing that line.'

Lackey needs 3 2-3 innings to overtake CC Sabathia (107 2-3) as the active leader in postseason innings.

'I'm going to cut it loose. Whatever is in there is going to be in there,' Lackey said. 'Yeah, this isn't the regular season. We're not saving anything.'

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:33 PM

Trend shows Nationals have Bumgarner's number
Stephen Campbell

The San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals face off in the Bay Area for Game 3 of their National League Divisional Series Monday, and there's one particular trend bettors planning on wagering on the game need to be aware of.

Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants, but the 25-year-old is just 1-5 in his last six outings versus Washington. Doug Fister counters for the Nats.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:33 PM

Cardinals lights out with Lackey pitching at home
Stephen Campbell

John Lackey will start Game 3 of the St. Louis Cardinals' Divisional Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium Monday, which will surely please Cards backers.

In Lackey's last 5 starts in St. Louis, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0. After two games in California the series is tied 1-1.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter on the bump for the Dodgers.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-05-2014, 10:34 PM

Notebook: Nats turn to Fister in Game 3
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

WASHINGTON -- Doug Fister, acquired in a trade with the Detroit Tigers before the season, will start for the Washington Nationals in Game 3 on Monday in San Francisco.

The tall right-hander was 16-6 with an ERA of 2.41 in 25 starts this season.

"I don't know that we are in this situation without Doug," first baseman Adam LaRoche said Saturday. "I think he's helped our starters a ton."

Fister, who began this season on the disabled list, works fast and gets a lot of groundball outs.

"You know, the guy doesn't break 90 miles an hour very often," LaRoche added. “He has a knack for sawing guys off, which is pretty tough to do, with that velocity."

--Tim Hudson, the Game 2 starter for the Giants, is no stranger to the Nationals.

In regular-season play he is 18-5 with an ERA of 2.35 in 31 starts against Washington, with many of those games coming when he played for the Atlanta Braves.

So how does Washington first baseman Adam LaRoche approach Hudson, his teammate in Atlanta in 2005, 2006 and 2009?

"You have to get to him early," LaRoche said before Game 2. "Huddy, throughout his career, he is known for, once he gets past the third, fourth inning and settles in, he gets to be really tough.

"If you can get to him the first two, three innings, ideally, it is huge. Not to say he can't be beat after that, but once he gets rolling, he's good. Really good.

"So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. He's got it figured out. He knows when to make adjustments. He knows how to read hitters well. He has a knack for that again. He pounds the zone, typically. Be read ready to hit early."

The Giants were 2-5 against Washington in regular-season play this year and both wins came in games started by Hudson.

--Nationals Park is about 107 miles north of The Diamond in Richmond, the home of the Double-A affiliate of the Giants.

And while the Giants are some 3,000 miles away from the Virginia capital the team has strong ties to the Old Dominion.

The Richmond Flying Squirrels have been the Double-A Eastern League affiliate of the Giants since 2009. Many of the current contributors of the Giants came through Richmond on their way up the minor league ladder, including Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and Hunter Strickland.

"It seems like here, it doesn't matter who you are, you are treated like one of the team," Belt said before Game 2. "You are treated like everyone else."

Strickland, who pitched in Game 1 for the Giants, was 1-1 with an ERA of 2.02 in 38 games with 11 saves for Richmond earlier this year. He was then promoted to Triple-A Fresno before he got the call to the Giants in early September.

Panik, the second baseman, had five hits in the first two postseason games this year to set a Giants record. He hit .257 in 137 games with 27 doubles, four triples and four home runs while spending all of 2013 in Richmond.

For good measure Giants reliever Javier Lopez is a graduate of Robinson High in Fairfax, Va., about 30 miles from Nationals Park, and manager Bruce Bochy lived in Falls Church, Va., for part of his boyhood.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:44 AM

Baseball Crusher
Washington Nationals +130 over SF Giants
(System Record: 108-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 108-76

Rest of the Plays
Los Angeles Dodgers -101 over St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers + St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5
Washington Nationals + SF Giants UNDER 6

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:45 AM

Football Crusher
Seattle Seahawks + Washington Redskins OVER 45
(System Record: 12-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 12-14-1

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:45 AM

Soccer Crusher
Rosario Central + Lanus OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 643-22, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 643-534-97

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:45 AM

big al mc mordie
3* wash +7.5

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:45 AM

VIP-picks

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Tip: >2,5

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Tip: Viborg -0.5, 1

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:47 AM

NFL

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:47 AM

MLB

Giants-Nationals
Fister is 4-0, 1.57 in his last four starts, 3-2, 2.98 in seven postseason starts; he is 1-1, 2.77 against San Francisco this season.

Bumgarner is 6-1, 2.16 in his last nine starts, 4-2, 3.02 in seven playoff starts, 0-1, 2.57 against Washington this season (two runs in seven IP).

Washington scored four runs in last three games, three runs in first two games of this series; taking Zimmerman out with two out in 9th inning Saturday is going to haunt this franchise, unless they come back and win the series.

Giants won last ten playoff games, an all-time record; they won World Series in 2010/2012. SF won its last five games overall, allowing seven runs.

Fister 18-7.........6-25 first inning
Bumgarner 20-14.......10-34 first inning

Cardinals-Dodgers
Ryu is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts; he's had shoulder issues. He is 1-0, 3.60 in two playoff starts, 0-1, 3.86 against the Cardinals this year.

Lackey is 1-1, 2.76 in his last three starts, 6-5, 3.03 in 16 postseason starts but he didn't pitch against the Dodgers this season.

Dodgers won six of last seven games, scoring 48 runs; they're in playoffs second year in row, after missing the three years before that. LA scored 44 runs in last six games.

St Louis is in playoffs for 4th year in row, 8th time in last 12 years-- they are 4-5 in last nine games overall, 4-1 in last five at home- their last home game was September 21.

Ryu 16-10.........4-26 first inning
Lackey 12-9/6-5.............8-32 first inning

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:51 AM

MNF - Seahawks at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers

The Redskins are featured on national television for the second straight week, as Washington hopes to turn in a better performance than it did last week against the Giants. The task doesn’t get easier, hosting the defending champion Seahawks on Monday night, as Seattle is fresh off its bye week, while seeking its first road win of the season.

Starting with Washington, the Redskins embarrassed themselves last Thursday night in a 45-14 home setback to the Giants as three-point home favorites. New York racked up 449 yards of offense on Washington, while Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions in his second start of the season. Washington turned the ball over six times in the loss, as the Redskins held the ball for only 23 minutes. Washington’s opponents scored 27 points in the first two weeks, but the Eagles and Giants combined to score 82 points in the past two games.

The Seahawks last took the field in Week 3, knocking off the Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch, 26-20 in overtime. Seattle grabbed a 17-3 advantage, seven months after steamrolling Denver, 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII to win the franchise’s first title. The Broncos didn’t fold as easily this time around, scoring a late touchdown in regulation to force overtime, tying the game at 20-20 as four-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch scored the game-winning touchdown in OT from six yards out to give the Seahawks the cover, but the game stayed ‘under’ the total of 48.

Pete Carroll’s team won seven of eight road games last season, but dropped its first contest away from CenturyLink Field this season. Seattle dropped a 30-21 decision at San Diego in Week 2 as 4 ½-point favorites, the first win of a current four-game winning streak for the Chargers. Seattle held the ball for less than 18 minutes in that defeat, while allowing more than 19 points for the first time in the past five road games.

The last time these teams met up came in the Wild Card round of the 2012 season at FedEx Field. The Redskins built a 14-0 first quarter lead before the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to take a 21-14 advantage in the fourth quarter. Robert Griffin III tore his ACL minutes after Lynch’s go-ahead score in the final quarter, sealing Washington’s fate in a 24-14 defeat. The Seahawks advanced to the divisional round, while covering as three-point road favorites to win the franchise’s first away playoff game since 1983.

Since the 17-6 loss at Houston in the opener, Jay Gruden’s squad has hit the ‘over’ in three straight games, even though Washington’s only win came against 0-5 Jacksonville, 41-10 in Week 2. Griffin remains out with an ankle injury suffered in that victory over the Jaguars, as Cousins has thrown for 934 yards and six touchdowns with five interceptions in three games.

The Seahawks have won eight straight Monday night games since 2005, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS under Carroll. Last season, Seattle failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 14-9 victory at St. Louis, as the Seahawks held the Rams out of the end zone on a goal-to-go on the final play of the game. The Seahawks have cashed six of their past eight as an away favorite of single-digits, while winning in all three trips to the East Coast last season.

The Redskins have been dreadful on Mondays since 2008, losing seven of eight times, including six losses at FedEx Field. Last season, Washington lost twice on Monday night football, allowing 60 points in defeats to Philadelphia and San Francisco. The only victory for Washington in this span came against the Giants in 2012, edging New York, 17-16 as three-point underdogs as part of a seven-game winning streak en route to the NFC East title.

Washington is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Redskins are 4-10 ATS when receiving points since 2013. The Redskins haven’t been a home ‘dog of at least a touchdown since 2011, when they barely covered as 7 ½-point underdogs in a 34-27 setback to New England. Last season, Washington cashed just two of six times at home in the ‘dog role, as three of those games closed with the Redskins as one-point ‘dogs (1-2 SU/ATS).

The Seahawks are currently seven-point favorites with the total set at 45 ½. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60’s with clear skies as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:51 AM

Fister tasked with extending Nationals' season
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

WASHINGTON -- The Washington Nationals have traded several top pitching prospects for proven big leaguers over the past few years.

Before the 2013 season, the Nationals traded Alex Meyer to the Minnesota Twins in a deal that sent center fielder Denard Span to Washington.

Prior to this season, Nathan Karns, a young right-hander, was sent to Tampa Bay in part of a deal that netted backup catcher Jose Lobaton.

And back in December, the Nationals parted ways with top pitching prospects Robbie Ray and Ian Krol, along with infielder Steve Lombardozzi and his big league experience, to the Detroit Tigers in a deal that brought right-hander Doug Fister to the nation's capital.

Now, Fister is tasked with trying to keep the Nationals alive when he pitches on Monday in Game 3 of the National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants as his team is down 2-0 after a crushing 2-1 loss in 18 innings on Saturday night.

Fister may have been the most consistent pitcher for the Nationals once he came off the disabled list in early May with a lat sprain.

The tall right-hander was 16-6 with an ERA of 2.41 in 25 starts this season.

"I don't know that we are in this situation without Doug," first baseman Adam LaRoche said. "I think he's helped our starters a ton."

Fister works fast and gets a lot of ground-ball outs.

"You know, the guy doesn't break 90 miles an hour very often," LaRoche said. "He has a knack for sawing guys off, which is pretty tough to do, with that velocity."

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:51 AM

Giants aim to close out Nationals in NLDS
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

WASHINGTON -- The San Francisco Giants are heading home with a 2-0 lead in the National League Division Series and a chance to wrap up the series against the Washington Nationals on Monday with lefty ace Madison Bumgarner.

"I think we are confident with Bum on the mound on Monday," said first baseman Brandon Belt. "Definitely not taking it for granted. We have seen teams come back 0-2 and win the series. We are going to go in there and try to play our best baseball. If we don't they will take advantage of it. That is what we will do."

Bumgarner is coming off a four-hit shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL wild-card game. He struck out 10 and walked one. In the regular season, Bumgarner went 18-10 with a 2.98 ERA.

The Giants topped the Nationals 2-1 in 18 innings Saturday in the longest game by time in postseason history. Belt hit a solo homer in the top of the 18th against Tanner Roark, who was part of the Washington starting rotation during the season.

Belt was hitless in his previous six at-bats and took a borderline pitch to make the count 3-2 before he pulled a pitch over the Washington bullpen in right.

"That was incredible," rookie second baseman Joe Panik said.

Yusmeiro Petit threw six scoreless innings and allowed just one hit as he got the win in Game 2.

"He shut them down for six innings. For a guy that has been starting for a while ... he was incredible," Panik said.

What did manager Bruce Bochy think of the homer by Belt?

"You are hoping that somebody gets ahold of one. We are facing a tough pitcher out there," Bochy said.

The Giants have now won 10 postseason games in a row, a National League record.

"It's a tough group," Bochy said. "They are relentless. They don't quit. We had our hands full tonight. We had the right guys coming up. I can't say enough again about what our bullpen did for us. Those guys never quit."

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:51 AM

Dodgers' Ryu back from shoulder woes for Game 3
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

ST. LOUIS -- Hyun-Jin Ryu had a great seat to watch a lot of baseball recently.

The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander threw just one inning in the past three weeks and only 7 2/3 since the start of September due to a sore shoulder. The injury forced him out of his Sept. 12 start in San Francisco after the first inning.

Ryu will finally take the mound again as the Dodgers' starter in Game 3 of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday. The series is tied at one game apiece.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said he has no concerns about handing Ryu the ball in such a pivotal game despite the lefty's inactivity over the past five weeks because of Ryu's low-maintenance approach.

"It's just his track record and kind of his work in between," Mattingly said. "It's not like he hasn't thrown. He's thrown, I think, two (bullpen sessions) now, and a (simulated) game.

"Hyun-Jin is a guy that we trust, and he's been unflappable from the standpoint of anything that comes along he just seems to handle."

The shoulder inflammation flared up twice this season, sending Ryu to the disabled list in April and May. However, Ryu said he is not concerned about the pain returning once he gets in a game again.

"I'm thinking that there's very little -- almost zero percent chance -- that the injury is going to come back tomorrow," Ryu said through his interpreter Sunday. "I'm not even thinking about it. I don't think it's good for my psyche to think that way.

"I threw a few bullpen sessions and I went 100 percent. I felt great in all those sessions. I don't foresee a reason why I would feel anything tomorrow."

Ryu made one start against the Cardinals in last year's NL Championship Series and held them scoreless for seven innings in the Dodgers' Game 3 victory.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:52 AM

Cardinals call on playoff-tested Lackey for Game 3
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

ST. LOUIS -- John Lackey is no stranger to the postseason stage.

In 2002, he became the first rookie since 1909 to start and win a World Series Game 7 when he took the ball in the decisive game against the San Francisco Giants.

He has been a postseason regular since then, making 19 appearances in all and pitching 104 October innings during a career that included a second World Series clincher. Lackey was the starter and winner for the Boston Red Sox when they closed out the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 6 in last year's World Series.

Now, Lackey is a member of the Cardinals, and he will start against the Dodgers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series on Monday. The series is tied one game apiece.

"I didn't bring it up and they didn't either," Lackey said of waving his World Series ring in the faces of his new teammates when he joined the Cardinals in July. "We're trying to do it together this year."

Lackey was acquired from the Red Sox at the trade deadline in exchange for outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig and right-hander Joe Kelly. He made 10 starts for the Cardinals, going an unimpressive 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA.

Even so, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said the 35-year-old veteran was a valuable addition to the pitching staff.

"We were very happy to bring him onto our club," Matheny said. "We had a real good idea what we were going to get -- a veteran presence, a guy who knows what he's doing, knows how to go about and use his stuff and just another starter to be in a leadership role and a voice for the rest of our staff.

"And he's been all of the above. He's come out and pitched well. He's competed and kept us in games, and he's a gamer. He's a competitor. He's a guy that we like to watch compete, especially on this kind of stage."

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:52 AM

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | WASHINGTON at SAN FRANCISCO
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
235-162 since 1997. ( 59.2% | 78.6 units )
18-18 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS is 48-17 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: ST LOUIS (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:52 AM

Today's NFL Picks Seattle at Washington The Seahawks head to Washington on Monday night to face a Redskins team that is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games in Week 5 of the season. Washington is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (10/1)

Game 477-478: Seattle at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.913; Washington 132.393
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under

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10-06-2014, 08:53 AM

Today's MLB Picks Washington at San Francisco The Giants look to clinch the NLDS series and come into the contest with a 6-0 record in Madison Bumgarner's last 6 starts as a favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 923-924: Washington at San Francisco (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 14.569; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.196
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under

Game 921-922: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.402; St. Louis (Lackey) 14.986
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:54 AM

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Falcons (+4) on Sunday and likes the Giants on Monday.

The deficit is 832 sirignanos.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 08:54 AM

Hondo

Hondo hits his pick three

Leave it to the Bengwads to wreck a perfectly good Sunday for Hondo, who otherwise cashed with the Giants, Broncos and his series investment on the Orioles to reduced the deficit to 1,265 ceys.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch expects Hyun-Jin to provide even more tonic for the deficit — 10 units on Ryu and the Dodgers to prevail against their Arch enemies.

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10-06-2014, 08:54 AM

Cappers Access

NFL

Seahawks -7

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10-06-2014, 08:55 AM

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play MON Cards w/ Lackey

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10-06-2014, 09:39 AM

bookiemonsters

POD
WASH NFL over 45.5

STL -105
WAS +125
WASH NFL +7.5

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10-06-2014, 11:10 AM

Paul Leiner

100* Seahawks -7.5

50* Giants -140

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10-06-2014, 11:10 AM

XpertPicks

MONDAY

TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY

Play Seattle -7 over Washington---RISK 30% OF YOUR BANKROLL

8:30 PM EST

Seattle has won 24 of the last 30 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 22 of the last 29 games vs. NFC Conference Opponents. Seattle has won 18 of the last 24 games when playing after the 1st month of the season and they have won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a home game.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 11:11 AM

XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

Play Washington +130 over San Francisco---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)

5:00 PM EST

Washington has won 95 of the last 160 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game and they have won 90 of the last 152 games after having lost two of the last three games. Washington has won 83 of the last 140 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have won 33 of the last 52 games when playing with a day off.

Play St. Louis +100 over Los Angeles Dodgers ---Extra Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 11:12 AM

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL

10* Play Washington +130 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)

Washington is 95-65 after scoring two runs or less in their last game
Washington is 90-62 after having lost two of the last three games
Washington is 83-57 vs. left-handed starting pitchers

10* Play St. Louis +100 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis is 51-30 in home games this season
St. Louis is 36=22 when playing on a Monday
St. Louis is 62-32 when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 11:12 AM

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

10* Play Seattle -7 over Washington (Top NFL Play)

Seattle is 11-3 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Seattle is 21-8 ATS vs. NFC Conference Opponents the last three seasons

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 11:13 AM

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Washington +130 over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)

Doug Fister has won 37 of the last 53 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has won 15 of the last 21 games coming off two or more team losses.Doug Fister has won 10 of the last 15 games when pitching with seven or more days of rest and he has won 19 of the last 31 day games.

================================================== ===

50* Play St. Louis +100 over Los Angeles Dodgers (BONUS MLB PLAY)

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 11:13 AM

FantasySportsGametime

MONDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Seattle -7 over Washington (TOP NFL PLAY)

Seattle has won 9 of the last 11 games after allowing 75 rushing yards or less and they have won 10 of the last 13 games when playing on a Monday Night. Seattle has won 12 of the last 14 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are averaging 27 points a game on offense this season.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 12:51 PM

Totals4U

2014 NFC Monday Night Football Super Total of the Year!!!!!

Seattle/Washington over 45

golden contender

10-06-2014, 01:28 PM

Monday card has a big NFL Totals system that is Perfect since 1981 and their are 5 Undefeated Totals angles, In MLB its a Huge 22-1 5* N.L.D.S Power angle play. NFL is at or near the top of several Major leader boards after another big day on Sunday. Free MLB Totals Angle below.

On Monday the free MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Washington at San Francisco game. Rotation numbers 923/924 at 5:05 eastern. A solid pitching match takes center stage in this one as Madison Bumgarner squares off against D. Fister. Bumgarner has a solid 2.43 era in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 3 runs in his last 14 innings at home vs the Nationals. Fister has a 1.66 era in his last 3 starts and has pitched under in 3 of 4 October starts. He has gone under twice here vs the Giants allowing just 1 run in 13 innings. These two hooked up in June in what turned out to be a 2-1 game. Washington has stayed under in 7 of 10 in October games and 6 of the last 7 on the road vs Leftys. The Giants have gone under in 12 of 18 with a day off. Look for another low scoring affair here tonight. On Monday the lead plays are the 100% Monday night Football totals play with 5 perfect angles and a system that is undefeated since 1981. In Bases its a 22-1 5* Side in the N.L.D.S Game three. NFL is at or near the top of several major leader boards this season and Prime time plays are cashing over 72% long term. Message to Jump on now and start the week big. For the free play take the under in the Nationals at Giants game. GC

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 01:43 PM

Stevewins

NFL
Seattle -4--1st Half(This is my second highest rated play of my career. We hit Baylor on Saturday my highest rated career play and we will do it again tonight!

MLB
Giants ML
Giants Under 6.5
Good Luck!!!

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 01:44 PM

EZWINNERS

3* Redskins +7

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10-06-2014, 01:44 PM

LINEMAKERS

Washington
Over Washington/Seattle

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 02:54 PM

Brandon Lang

30 Dimes

Seahawks -6.5 (-120)

asshole says to buy the half point down to 6.5

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 02:55 PM

WINSPORTSNOW

Best Bet Football Report
Seahawks-8

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10-06-2014, 02:56 PM

Charlies sports

MONDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME NFL 500* Side-Total & 500* MLB NLDS Triple lock

Seattle @ Washington under 46 points. (500*)

Washington+7. (500*)

Dodgers @ St. Louis under 7' runs. (500*)

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 03:40 PM

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET

STATFOX FORECASTER
Seattle (477) AT Washington (478)
Latest Line: Redskins +7; Total: 45.5

The Seahawks are coming off of their bye week, prior to which they won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns passing from Russell Wilson. Wilson now gets to throw against a Redskins' defense that allowed 300 yards and four touchdowns passing in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013. The Seahawks won 24-14 in Washington. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards.

STATFOX SIX PACK:
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-26 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 52-28 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-42 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 03:42 PM

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Extra System #1: Washington Redskins +7 over the Seattle Seahawks (Bet Level 4) (Spread Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 8:30 PM EST

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 03:45 PM

Steve Budin

100 dime SEATTLE

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10-06-2014, 03:46 PM

Steve Budin

CALI-CARTEL
7-1 Start in Football so far,
including 2-0 in the NFL

100 DIME NFL

WINNER # 3 IN A ROW

Seattle

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 03:48 PM

Al DeMarco

NLCS TWINBILL

10 Dime: Giants

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10-06-2014, 03:49 PM

Arthur Ralph's
Blue Ribbon UNDER the TOTAL 45 1/2 Seahawks / Redskins

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10-06-2014, 03:49 PM

Craig Davis

50 DIME
Winner # 9 of 14
2 Team Teaser
7pt teas seattle/over

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 03:50 PM

Gabriel Dupont

Matinee Moneymaker

50 Dime Do-or-Die
NLDS Game of the Year
Giants

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10-06-2014, 04:25 PM

Scott Delaney

50 Dimes Washgton +7.5

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10-06-2014, 04:48 PM

EXECUTIVE

200 under Sea/Wash

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10-06-2014, 04:49 PM

Trev Rogers

San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers

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10-06-2014, 04:49 PM

SB Professor Original NFL Picks

Seattle -7

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10-06-2014, 04:49 PM

bookieshunter MNF

under 46.5 (2*)

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10-06-2014, 04:49 PM

MTi Sports

St Louis

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10-06-2014, 04:50 PM

Mike Davis

6*Seattle

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10-06-2014, 04:51 PM

Wayne Root

No Limit Washington Skins

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10-06-2014, 04:51 PM

Las Vegas Private CEO Club

MLB - Nationals +120

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10-06-2014, 04:53 PM

Chris James Sports

Nationals +125

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10-06-2014, 05:00 PM

JR Stevens/Winning Sports Plays

MLB (5-star or 5-unit)
(922) St. Louis +105

(924) San Francisco -130
*Listed Pitchers

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 05:01 PM

Hot Chick PICKS

Take SAN FRANCISCO -130 to stand tall today!

Take ST. LOUIS +105 to dodge a close one at home!

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 05:01 PM

Diamond Dog Sports

#923/924: Nationals/Giants: Under 6.0 (-105) (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Fister/Bumgarner

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 05:40 PM

Ben Burns

10* Dodgers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 05:40 PM

Sheep
$1000:
477) Under 46 Sea-Wash
1478) Wash +4 (1st H)

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 06:35 PM

King Creole

477 SEA / 478 WAS UNDER 46.0 Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437).com

2** UNDER the TOTAL / Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Seattle comes into tonight’s game off their Bye Week. And the host Redskins come in off a Thursday home loss to division rival New York. While it is not surprising that Seattle comes in with one of the better defenses in the NFL (#6 overall)… it IS surprising that despite the fact that they just allowed 45 points, Washington ALSO come in with a Top Ten defense (324 YPG allowed / #8). Our database simulations have this game finishing with a final score of 23 to 17. Not quite a full TD margin… but 5-6 points less than the current OU line anyway.

First off, we head to the database and query multiple Day of the Week OU tendencies. They all point to a lower-scoring outcome than anticipated:
(1) MONDAY home dogs of +5 or greater points (Wash) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in the last 4 seasons…
(2) MONDAY teams off a Thursday game (Wash) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is > 39 pts and < 52 pts…
(3) MONDAY teams playing with REST (Seat) have gone 2-11 O/U, and a PERFECT 0-6 O/U as favs > 3 pts (Seat).

One more query in regards to Seattle coming in off their Bye Week… ALL NFL road favorites of -6 > points playing with REST (Seahawks) have gone 0-6 O/U in the last three seasons.
Washington was favored in their last game and lost OUTRIGHT by 31 pts... 0-5 O/U L3Y: All NFL dogs off a SU favorite loss of 28 > pts (Wash).

In that home loss, Washington allowed the NY Giants to score 45 points... 5-18 O/U since 1981: All NFL home teams who allowed 45 > pts at HOME the previous week (Wash).
Finally, we input the divisional aspect of that last loss... 0-9 O/U since 2002: All NFL teams off a SU division home loss of 31 > pts (Wash) when the OU line is > 41 points.

At last look, the Seahawks were laying MORE than a full TD in this game... 1-13 O/U last 3 years: All NFL road favorites of -7 > pts (Sea) when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 48 points.
Washington is a PERFECT 0-5 O/U L2Y as home dogs of 2 > w/ a line of > 44 points. Seattle went a PERFECT 0-5 O/U last year on the NFC road w/ line > 41 points.
Washington has gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U on MONDAYS in NON-division games over the the last 13 seasons…
Seattle has gone 0-3 O/U on MONDAYS in the last two seasons… and 1-4 O/U in the last six seasons.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 06:36 PM

Ray Falco

Seattle

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10-06-2014, 06:36 PM

Gilztips

St. Louis
Washington

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10-06-2014, 06:36 PM

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Nationals +125 If you're ever going to beat Bumgarner, it will be in SF.

Cardinals +107 Yes, Ryu pitched well last year vs. StL in the playoffs. Now lets see if he can handle the post-season pressure on the road.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 06:37 PM

Josh Daniels

1* Redskins +8

Can'tPickAWinner

10-06-2014, 06:37 PM

VegasButcher - #8: Los Angeles Dodgers (1st 5 innings ONLY) -120

Through the 2nd half of the year, John Lackey ranked as my 111th pitcher out of 160. His K-rate dropped from 21% to 17%, his HR-rate increased from 1.0 to 1.2 HR/9, his GB-rate dropped from 47% to 41%, and his FIP increased from 3.5 to 4.2, a pretty large jump. It’s important to note that all of these increases happened with Lackey pitching 10 games in the National League, where there’s a ‘pitcher’ spot in the batting order and overall the offenses aren’t as potent. I’ve looked at Lackey’s performance since joining the Cardinals and he ended up with a 4.0 SIERA in those 10 games, a mark that would rank him among pitchers like AJ Burnett, Masterson, and Vidal Nuno. And it’s not like he was pitching against tough lineups. His opponents were CIN three times, CHC two times, MIL two times (Brewers were way below average offensively in the 2nd half of the year), SDP, PIT, and BAL. Only 2 of those 10 matchups were quality offenses, and the rest were all in the bottom-10. One issue that I’ve noticed is that Lackey’s velocity dropped. Prior to joining the Cardinals he averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball. In the 10 games with the Cards, his average fastball was at 90.6, a 1.5 MPH drop which is absolutely huge. In his last 5 starts his average velocity was at 90.1, which is a full 2 MPH drop from his average prior to joining St Louis. Is Lackey injured? I know he needed to skip a start in the middle of September due to arm fatigue and it doesn’t look like he regained his velocity since. His velocity in his last regular season start was exactly 90.1, which is the average for his last 5 games on the mound. Typically when a pitcher loses this much off his fastball, that’s an indication that there’s an injury at play. Additionally, Lackey is a fastball/slider type of a pitcher, accounting for about 90% of his pitches from those two offerings. There are only 3 teams in MLB that rank in the top-10 offensively against BOTH the fastball and the slider. Facing them, Lackey recorded a 4.7 ERA against the Tigers (#4 FB / #3 SL) in 13.1 innings and a 9.1 ERA against the Orioles (#1 FB / #5 SL) in 21.2 innings. The third such MLB team with the same profile is LA Dodgers, who rank #9 against the Fastball and #2 against the Slider. In addition, this is the #1 offensive team in all of baseball over the course of the 2nd half of the season and a team that ranks #2 offensively against right-handed pitchers. I think this is a really bad matchup for Lackey.

But even if Lackey throws a great game, I think Dodgers have a strong edge on the mound as well. Ryu was my 4th rated starter in the 2nd half of the year, only behind Carrasco, Kluber, and Kershaw. He also has been absolutely filthy against the Cards in the last 2 years, allowing 3 ER’s in 21 innings of work with 18 K and only 2 BB. That’s a 1.3 ERA and 0.9 WHIP in 3 career starts against them. Cardinals have 4 lefties in the lineup tonight, and Ryu has a 2.5 FIP against left-handers, an elite mark. Plus consider that Grichuk has been terrible against lefties in his short career (.254 OBP vs .308 against righties) while Yadier Molina has been absolutely struggling to find his form (.281 wOBA + 78 wRC+ in 2nd half since returning from injury vs .329 wOBA + 110 wRC+ prior) at the plate, thus leaving Holliday + Peralta as potentially the only truly dangerous hitters for Ryu tonight. Ryu hasn’t pitched in a game since September 12th so I’m assuming he’ll be on some sort of a pitch-count tonight and I don’t expect him to go past the 6th inning. Since I don’t feel like sweating out this Dodgers bullpen for 3+ innings, I’ll back LA for the 1st 5 innings only.