10-7-14

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Trends show Haren-Miller both going Under
Stephen Campbell

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals face off at Busch Stadium in Game 3 of their NL Divisional Series Tuesday, and recent trends are signalling a low-scoring game.

Dan Haren will take the ball for the Dodgers, while Shelby Miller will be on the hill for the Cards.

In Haren's last six road starts, the Under is 5-1. Coincidentally, in Miller's last five outings, the Under is 4-1.

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Preview: Nationals (96-66) at Giants (87-74)

Game: 4
Venue: Nationals Park
Date: October 07, 2014 9:07 PM EDT


The Washington Nationals caught the break they needed to stave off elimination in the best-of-five NL division series.

Gio Gonzalez will try to help send it back east for a decisive fifth game by continuing his success against the San Francisco Giants.

Having snapped San Francisco's NL-record postseason win streak, Gonzalez and the Nationals look to stay alive Tuesday night when they oppose 2012 postseason hero Ryan Vogelsong in Game 4 at AT&T Park.

Including a 2-1, 18-inning home loss in Saturday's Game 2, Washington went 21 consecutive innings without scoring before breaking through in the seventh Monday en route to a 4-1 victory that cut its series deficit to 2-1.

The Nationals pushed across two runs on Madison Bumgarner's throwing error before Bryce Harper hit his second home run of the series in the ninth, helping Washington end the Giants' 10-game playoff winning streak.

"We just needed one break," closer Drew Storen said after allowing one run in the ninth. "It's been a tough couple innings here to start and we got our break. It's just a matter of building on it, and we live to see another day."

Gonzalez (10-10, 3.57 ERA) is coming off a strong close to the regular season ahead of his third career postseason start. He's held opponents to three earned runs or less in his last seven outings, going 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA.

The left-hander struggled while failing to earn a decision in two starts against St. Louis in the 2012 NLDS, allowing a combined five runs with 11 walks over just 10 innings.

Gonzalez displayed excellent command down the stretch in 2014, striking out 27 while walking three over his last four starts. He did not face the Giants this season, though he's gone 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four meetings since the start of 2011.

Hunter Pence (1 for 12), Pablo Sandoval (1 for 10) and Buster Posey (3 for 14) haven't fared well against him, but Brandon Crawford is 2 for 6 with a home run and two RBIs.

Sandoval went 2 for 4 on Monday, extending his postseason hitting streak to 14 games - the longest in Giants playoff history. Brandon Belt added two hits, leaving him 7 for 17 with a home run and five RBIs in these playoffs.

The Giants, however, have totaled three runs while batting .159 - including 1 for 14 with runners in scoring position - over 27 innings in the past two games. Crawford, Joe Panik and Gregor Blanco are a combined 0 for 29 over that stretch.

San Francisco didn't provide Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00) with much support last month, totaling three runs in his five starts. The right-hander certainly didn't help matters by posting a 5.53 ERA while going 0-4 in that span.

Vogelsong could turn things around by pitching as well as he did during the club's 2012 run to the World Series title. He went 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA in four starts that postseason, including 5 2-3 innings in a 2-0 win at Detroit in Game 3 of the Series.

"It would have been nice to finish it up (Monday), but these are the times you play this game for," the 37-year-old said.

Vogelsong, though, is 1-2 with a 7.94 ERA in five career starts versus Washington after giving up nine runs and 13 hits over 11 1-3 combined innings in two outings this season - both San Francisco losses.

Ian Desmond is 3 for 6 with a home run, triple and four RBIs when facing him in 2014, but Harper has gone 1 for 8 with four strikeouts all-time in the matchup. Anthony Rendon is 7 for 15 in this series after adding two more hits Mond

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MLB

Giants-Nationals
Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.48 in his last five starts, 0-0, 4.50 in two postseason starts. He didn't pitch against the Giants this season.

Vogelsong is 0-4, 6.51 in his last five starts, but 3-0, 1.09 in four playoff starts. He is 0-1, 7.15 in two starts vs Washington this season. .

Washington won nine of last ten road games, including last five in row; they are 14-5 in last 19 games overall.

Giants won 10 of last 11 playoff games, five of its last six games overall, allowing eleven runs.

Gonzalez 16-11.........11-27 first inning
Vogelsong 15-17........7-32 first inning


Dodgers-Cardinals
Kershaw is pitching on three days' rest; he is 1-4, 5.20 in seven career playoff starts, 7-1, 3.02 in his last eight starts overall, 1-0, 1.93 in two starts against the Cardinals this season.

Miller is 2-0, 1.78 in his last five starts, but hasn't pitched since September 23; he is making first postseason start. Miller allowed three runs in 4.1 IP in three postseason relief appearances; he allowed six runs in six IP vs LA this season.

Dodgers won six of last eight games, scoring 45 runs in last seven; they're 3-4 in their last seven road games. Their bullpen is struggling.

St Louis won three of last four games, five of last six at home.

Kershaw 23-5...........5-28 first inning
Miller 15-16.............4-31 first inning

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'NLDS'

The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants get ready to duel again after the Nationals' staved off elimination by winning Game 3 of the best-of-five National League Division Series. Tonight, the Nationals try to even the series handing the ball to Gio Gonzalez who is 10-10 on the campaign with a 3.57 ERA. Meanwhile, Giants try to close things out with Ryan Vogelsong carrying an 8-13 record, 4.00 ERA. The Nationals have opened -$1.30 to -$1.40 favorite depending on locale. That nod by oddsmakers is due in part to Nationals' recent 5-1 success in San Francisco's back yard and sparkling 10-1 stretch vs an NL West opponent when sending lefty Gonzalez to the mound. The most compelling numbers in the Nationals’ favor though, are the numbers compiled by San Francisco's choice for starter. The Giants have won just 2 of Vogelsong's last 7 trips to the mound and only 2 of the hurlers last 8 starts at AT&T Park including a loss to the Nationals.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Giants on Monday and likes the Dodgers on Tuesday.

The deficit is 902 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo’s picking a loser

Hondo took a step backwards Monday night when the Dodgers were unable to perform the menial task of beating Lackey. As a result the NRN (nasty red number) expanded to 1,315 sutters.

Tuesday : Mr. Aitch will put his hard-earned DDPs (disposable dead presidents) on Kershaw to redeem himself and force a Game 5 — 10 units.

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VIP-picks


Exclusive
Bristol Rovers - Dartford
Tip: Bristol Rovers -1


Grimsby - Altrincham
Tip: Grimsby -1

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Today's MLB Picks LA Dodgers at St. Louis The Cardinals look to follow up last night's 3-1 win and come into today's contest with a 13-3 record in their last 16 games as a home underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165). Here are all of today's MLB picks.


TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 929-930: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.587; St. Louis (Miller) 15.662
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165); Over


Game 931-932: Washington at San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.778; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.302
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130); Under

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Kevin's Pick(s):

The playoff systems keep rolling with another underdog winner, as the Cardinals win 3-1 to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Game 4 is this afternoon and I've got a 5 UNIT play going, plus a play in tonight's game...

5 UNIT = Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS +1.5 (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Kershaw vs Miller
(Note: I'm risking 5.00 units to win 4.55 units)

2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants - GIANTS TO WIN (+122)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs Vogelsong
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.44 units)

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BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play San Francisco +120 over Washington (MLB TOP PLAY)

San Francisco is 94-80 vs. left-handed starting pitchers
San Francisco is 14-6 in the playoffs the last three seasons
San Francisco is 24-13 vs. NL East Division Opponents this season


10* Play St. Louis +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis is 52-30 in home games this season
St. Louis is 44-31 when playing on a Tuesday
St. Louis is 63-32 when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games

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FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play San Francisco +120 over Washington (TOP MLB PLAY)

San Francisco has won 24 of the last 37 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and they have won 34 of the last 53 games after having won three of the last four games.

================================================== ===


50* Play St. Louis +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers (BONUS MLB PLAY)

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XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

Play St. Louis +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)


5:00 PM EST

St. Louis has won 63 of the last 95 games when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games and they have won 12 of the last 16 home games when playing as an underdog. St. Louis has won 78 of the last 143 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have won 65 of the last 104 games after scoring and allowing three runs or less in their last game.




Play San Francisco +120 over Washington ---Extra Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

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Lt lock

Nationals

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JR Stevens/Winning Sports Plays

MLB (5-star or 5-unit)
(930) St. Louis +150 (Play of the Day)

I LOVE this play! Kershaw stepping up in an elimination spot after getting beat up in game 1---the public pounding him thinking "he's too good", "bounceback" and "revenge"--BUT NOT SO FAST! "Perception vs. Reality" -- these are the situations Vegas gets rich on--and the situations I have made my living on! Although it's only natural to think a pitcher like Kershaw is too good to not bounce back the reality is the public is overlooking that he is pitching on only 3 days rest and this is VERY significant! History shows that pitchers fail miserably in this spot, even the the creme dela creme! 21-0 trend going against certain playoff pitchers facing elimination and pitching on 3 days rest.

(932) San Francisco +125

Giants failed to get it done for us yesterday after the man whose arm we counted on ironically was responsible for losing the game with a fielding mistake and not a pitching one. Now today the perception is the Nats tie this series up with a "huge pitching advantage" which presents us with another huge opportunity to cash in big. I said all season long the Nats bats really don't scare me. "Small ball" wins the biggest games and this Nats team relied on too many timely HRs and late game heroics to be taken seriously as a contender. And now today backing Gio Gonzalez in an elimination is even scarier! Going against this guy in big games has been very profitable for me and I suspect it will be again today! 18-0 trend going against certain playoff teams (WAS) coming off an series elimation win with an opening line of -125 or less. Again, this is opening line NOT current line.

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Arthur Ralph
Blue Ribbon Nationals w/ Gonzalez

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Antony Dinero

Nationals

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Bob Balfe ‏

Cardinals +135

Cardinals / Giants Over 6.5

Giants +120

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Doc

mlb

3* Giants -120

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play TUES Cards w/ Miller + 160

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Scott Delaney

60 Dime NLDS Total of the Year

Washington/San Fran Under 6.5

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Sean Michaels

50* Play Dodgers

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Al DeMarco
5 Dimes
La Dodgers

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Craig Davis

20 Dimes Washington Nats

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Sports pick Predictions

Washington Nationals -135 (3 units)
Washington/San Francisco OVER 6.5, -115 (3 units)

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Los Angeles Dodgers / St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 6½ (Bet Level 2) (Total Runs Scored) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 5:05 PM EST - EARLY Play Alert

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Bryant – BullsEye

#930 ST. LOUIS +149
2 Units

#930 ST. LOUIS Run Line +1.5 -120
2 Units

#931 WASHINGTON -135
2 Units

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

2* Giants
2* Cardinals/Dodgers Over 6.5
1* Cardinals

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Paul Leiner:
1000* MLB Over 6.5 Nationals/Giants
100* MLB Under 6.5 Dodgers/Cardinals

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Charlie sports

500*
dodgers
wash over
dodgers under

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

St. Louis (Miller) +145

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Locksmith Sports

2* Cardinals +1.5 runs (-125)
1* Cardinals +145

3* Nationals -135
1* Nationals/Giants Over 6.5

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Brandon Lang

25 DIME OFF LINE
MONEY MOVE #2 IN A ROW

Washington Nationals

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Indian Cowboy
3* Under 6.5 LAD/CARDS

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

LA Dodgers -170

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James Jones

MLB-Washington Nationals ML-133...(3*)
MLB-St. Louis Cardinals ML+141...(1*)

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Mike Davis

7 unit 'Over' 6.5 Washington at San Francisco (9:05 p.m., Tuesday, October 7)

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Marco d angelo

7-Oct-2014(931) Washington Nationals at (932) San Francisco Giants

Time: 9:05 PM EDT4%Washington Nationals -125

Betting Line Provider:
BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127)

View Analysis
PLAY:* (931) WASHINGTON
RATING: 4% PLAY


Down 0-2 on the road and facing the Giants ace the Washington Nationals showed they are far from done in this series. Today the Nats will send Gio Gonzalez to the mound and Gio has been an absolute beast in his last 2 starts. Gio pitched 7 innings in each start and gave up just 2 runs total in the 2 games. he allowed just 7 hits in 14 innings of work and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 17-2. Gio is a lefty and San Francisco was just 30-30 vs lefties this year while going 61-45 vs righties. Vogelsong has struggled as in his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.43. If current form wasn't enough how about this Gonzalez has faced San Francisco 7 times in his career and has a ERA of 2.59. Vogelson has faced Washington 5 times and has a ERA of 7.94 in those 5 starts. Finally when Gio starts at night over the last 2 years Washington is 40-19 in his his 59 starts. I have Washington winning this 4-2..

TAKE WASHINGTON as MARCO'S BASEBALL MASSACRE

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Sean Higgs

4* Nationals

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Pick Addict
9:05 PM EST MLB
WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
PICK: WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML (-143)
RISK: 5 UNITS